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allycat

allycat

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2021-07-27

Breaking out

2021-07-26

New week and marching towards the green patches

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2021-07-26

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$depressed 😰

2021-07-10

Power of imagination

5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>

2021-06-24

Follow the lead

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2021-06-24

Wow

The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>

2021-06-23

Wow

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2021-06-16

This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.

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2021-06-11

Time to buy

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2021-06-11

Potential?

2021-06-09

Wow, first in line 👏👏👏

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2021-06-08

Do u think its a good buy?

2021-06-07

👍

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2021-06-05

Promising

2021-06-05

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$finally on green patch

2021-06-05

Blackberry seems promising

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2021-06-05

Recovery slowly but surely

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2021-06-04

Will be better as covid situation improves

Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-04

💪💪💪

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-03

Very promising

Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>

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patches","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800055852","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800056396,"gmtCreate":1627267521015,"gmtModify":1633766689481,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>depressed 😰","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>depressed 😰","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$depressed 😰","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5c9bcee8149e32807dbe4ba87197ca","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800056396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148938102,"gmtCreate":1625912304306,"gmtModify":1631888657826,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power of imagination&nbsp;","listText":"Power of imagination&nbsp;","text":"Power of imagination","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148938102","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126105753,"gmtCreate":1624546503772,"gmtModify":1634004544710,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Follow the lead","listText":"Follow the lead","text":"Follow the lead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126105753","repostId":"1162964404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126102430,"gmtCreate":1624546457920,"gmtModify":1634004546001,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126102430","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123603736,"gmtCreate":1624418803125,"gmtModify":1634006381027,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123603736","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169022342,"gmtCreate":1623809786886,"gmtModify":1634027775430,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","listText":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","text":"This has been the case 10 years ago and under scrutiny only now. Nothing will change.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169022342","repostId":"1195581477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181508707,"gmtCreate":1623399705009,"gmtModify":1631885484940,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy","listText":"Time to buy","text":"Time to 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first in line 👏👏👏","listText":"Wow, first in line 👏👏👏","text":"Wow, first in line 👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180471461","repostId":"1176918592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117491240,"gmtCreate":1623155610380,"gmtModify":1634036388955,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do u think its a good buy?","listText":"Do u think its a good buy?","text":"Do u think its a good 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>finally on green patch","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>finally on green patch","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$finally on green patch","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b904e712870c599368c4837b97dfaff","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112169346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112185796,"gmtCreate":1622855967315,"gmtModify":1631886275325,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Blackberry seems promising&nbsp;","listText":"Blackberry seems promising&nbsp;","text":"Blackberry seems promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112185796","repostId":"2140409543","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112182927,"gmtCreate":1622855884469,"gmtModify":1634097366428,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Recovery slowly but surely","listText":"Recovery slowly but surely","text":"Recovery slowly but surely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112182927","repostId":"1198786025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116272696,"gmtCreate":1622808410515,"gmtModify":1634097825609,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will be better as covid situation improves&nbsp;","listText":"Will be better as covid situation improves&nbsp;","text":"Will be better as covid situation improves","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116272696","repostId":"2140033314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140033314","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622807843,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140033314?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 19:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140033314","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move great","content":"<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像卡在机器里的弹球一样，市场被卡住了。过去连续七个交易日，标普500的任何一个方向的涨幅都没有超过0.4%。如果股市在今年剩下的时间里都休市，标普500上涨12%当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>也许值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即10年期国债。在从低于1%飙升至高达1.78%之后，10年期国债收益率只是有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括IHS登记的70<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>周四公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行业贸易机构国际金融研究所表示，市场正在相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年的缩减恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)为首的IIF经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的定价很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，令人惊讶的疲软的4月份就业报告是一个8个标准差的意外，但它对债券的任何方向都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破10年来的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏方面的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场陷入停顿的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球经济活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy markets have been stuck, and what might get them moving again<blockquote>为什么市场陷入困境，以及什么可能让它们再次上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 19:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&amp;P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&amp;P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.</p><p><blockquote>就像卡在机器里的弹球一样，市场被卡住了。过去连续七个交易日，标普500的任何一个方向的涨幅都没有超过0.4%。如果股市在今年剩下的时间里都休市，标普500上涨12%当然不会是一个糟糕的结果，但值得研究一下为什么现在波动如此之小。</blockquote></p><p> It might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services purchasing managers index released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>也许值得关注所有证券的基准资产，即10年期国债。在从低于1%飙升至高达1.78%之后，10年期国债收益率只是有所波动。尽管有耸人听闻的经济数据，包括IHS登记的70<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>周四公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p> The Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.</p><p><blockquote>银行业贸易机构国际金融研究所表示，市场正在相信美联储。特别是，他们认为美联储的平均通胀目标计划正在锚定长期收益率。</blockquote></p><p> Compared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.</p><p><blockquote>与2013年的缩减恐慌相比，以罗宾·布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)为首的IIF经济学家表示，值得注意的是，美联储加息的定价很少。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5dd30fb56f2308cff6d736af7a45d4\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"575\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，令人惊讶的疲软的4月份就业报告是一个8个标准差的意外，但它对债券的任何方向都没有什么作用。他们表示：“为了打破10年来的僵局，就业数据需要显示劳动力市场复苏方面的真正进展，而劳动力市场复苏仍然悬而未决。”</blockquote></p><p> The IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.</p><p><blockquote>IIF驳斥了中国信贷增长放缓是市场陷入停顿的真正原因的观点。“这种冲动甚至与中国的GDP无关，更不用说全球经济活动了，”他们说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-markets-have-been-stuck-and-what-might-get-them-moving-again-11622802791?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140033314","content_text":"Like a pinball stuck in a machine, markets have been wedged in. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a move greater than 0.4% in either direction for the last seven consecutive sessions. If the stock market were to close for the entire rest of the year, a 12% rise in the S&P 500 certainly wouldn't be a bad result, but it's worth examining why there's so little movement right now.\nIt might be worth looking at the benchmark asset for all securities, the 10-year Treasury . After surging from below 1% to as high as 1.78%, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has just kind of drifted. That's despite sensational economic data, including the 70 reading registered on the IHS Markit services purchasing managers index released Thursday.\nThe Institute of International Finance, the trade body for banks, said what's going on is that markets are believing the Federal Reserve. In particular, they think the Fed average inflation targeting program is anchoring longer-term yields.\nCompared with the 2013 taper tantrum, IIF's economists led by Robin Brooks say it's notable how few Fed rate hikes are priced in.\n\nThe surprisingly weak April payrolls report, they note, was an 8-standard deviation surprise, yet it did little to move bonds in either direction. \"To break the stalemate on the 10-year, payrolls will need to show real progress on labor market recovery, which is still outstanding,\" they said.\nThe IIF rejects the idea that slowing Chinese credit growth is the real reason markets have hit pause. \"That impulse doesn't even correlate with China's GDP, let alone global activity,\" they say.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116241758,"gmtCreate":1622807342174,"gmtModify":1634097834860,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"💪💪💪","listText":"💪💪💪","text":"💪💪💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116241758","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111700800,"gmtCreate":1622696285500,"gmtModify":1634099034064,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575286791359007","authorIdStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very promising&nbsp;","listText":"Very promising&nbsp;","text":"Very promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111700800","repostId":"1128017388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128017388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622618011,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128017388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128017388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provid","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车公司，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该可以帮助蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的大量增长已经被消化。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在中国本土市场享有增长势头，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的影响力。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么昂贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然存在大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不是确定的，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其目前的估值上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前的估值略低于40美元，但估值超过600亿美元。这比该股在2021年初达到峰值时的估值低约40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情下降，因为包括特斯拉(TSLA)在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也有所回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特(F)大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。除此之外，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括ES6和ES8 SUV等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的区别在于其电池交换技术，该技术允许消费者在访问蔚来的电池交换站之一时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机汽车加油所需的时间相同，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远不止几分钟。蔚来的电池交换站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有任何有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划多年来在国际市场上推出这项服务，一旦它们的足迹足够大以发挥作用，这应该成为蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与其他产品区分开来。大多数同行。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增加，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，在交付量强劲增长的背景下，蔚来的收入可能会增长100%以上，因为分析师群体目前预测今年的收入将增长130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长480%后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率约为110%。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年将增长约50%-60%，约为增长率的一半预计今年蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%以上的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这一水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司也雄心勃勃地计划进军庞大的欧洲电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍应实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长推动力并不一定等同于股价的大幅上涨。投资者应该考虑到，与所有汽车公司一样，蔚来将活跃于周期性、资本密集型行业，该行业的平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，尽管电动汽车销量增长迅速，但在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时并不能保证全垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长100%以上，但超过这一点的增长预测差异更大。例如，展望2022年，分析师对蔚来收入的共识为87亿美元，比2021年的共识增长78%。然而，预测范围很广，分析师预测2022年收入在73亿美元至119亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的预测认为蔚来的收入比最悲观的预测高出60%。由于这些估计是针对2022年（距离现在只有一年）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数据是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对2025年收入的估计，我将采用分析师对2022年的共识，即87亿美元，然后假设2023年、2024年、2025年和2026年收入将以27%的预测整体市场增长率的1.5倍增长。这将使我们在2026年（即五年后）的收入达到340亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长110%，明年将增长80%左右，一些读者可能会认为2023-2026年40%的增长率估计过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销量的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年，我们看到目前股价约为预期收入的7倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别为预期收入的6倍和9倍。我非常怀疑2026年电动汽车公司的平均销售倍数是否会达到高个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常交易的0.5-2倍收入倍数相差太大。但当我们假设蔚来作为一家纯电动汽车公司，在2020年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3倍或4倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将2026年收入预测提高3.5倍时，这相当于1190亿美元的市值——比蔚来目前的市值高出约90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。当我们假设到2026年股票数量将再增加20%，达到19亿股时，那么2026年股票交易价格将为61美元。这意味着该股未来五年的上涨潜力约为55%，即每年上涨约9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，蔚来是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是稳健的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，人们可以认为预测的增长太高或太低，或者2026年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前10美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在67美元的峰值买入蔚来是一个相当糟糕的决定。如今的蔚来股价高达30多美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来多年来很有可能带来稳健的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已经消化了大量增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的适应程度、在欧洲的推广情况以及其他国际市场将走向等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，以及特斯拉（增长较慢但估值仍较高）。如果看到蔚来的股票在2020年代实现稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对理所当然的事情，因为即使考虑到其强劲的增长，蔚来目前的估值仍然相当高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心且不介意未来产品发布和国际扩张、股票波动性等风险和不确定性的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这对每个人来说都不是一个好的选择，有些人可能希望在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据2021年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到18倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车公司，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该可以帮助蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的大量增长已经被消化。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在中国本土市场享有增长势头，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的影响力。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么昂贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然存在大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不是确定的，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其目前的估值上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前的估值略低于40美元，但估值超过600亿美元。这比该股在2021年初达到峰值时的估值低约40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情下降，因为包括特斯拉(TSLA)在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也有所回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特(F)大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。除此之外，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括ES6和ES8 SUV等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的区别在于其电池交换技术，该技术允许消费者在访问蔚来的电池交换站之一时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机汽车加油所需的时间相同，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远不止几分钟。蔚来的电池交换站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有任何有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划多年来在国际市场上推出这项服务，一旦它们的足迹足够大以发挥作用，这应该成为蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与其他产品区分开来。大多数同行。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增加，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，在交付量强劲增长的背景下，蔚来的收入可能会增长100%以上，因为分析师群体目前预测今年的收入将增长130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长480%后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率约为110%。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年将增长约50%-60%，约为增长率的一半预计今年蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%以上的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这一水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司也雄心勃勃地计划进军庞大的欧洲电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍应实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长推动力并不一定等同于股价的大幅上涨。投资者应该考虑到，与所有汽车公司一样，蔚来将活跃于周期性、资本密集型行业，该行业的平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，尽管电动汽车销量增长迅速，但在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时并不能保证全垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长100%以上，但超过这一点的增长预测差异更大。例如，展望2022年，分析师对蔚来收入的共识为87亿美元，比2021年的共识增长78%。然而，预测范围很广，分析师预测2022年收入在73亿美元至119亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的预测认为蔚来的收入比最悲观的预测高出60%。由于这些估计是针对2022年（距离现在只有一年）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数据是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对2025年收入的估计，我将采用分析师对2022年的共识，即87亿美元，然后假设2023年、2024年、2025年和2026年收入将以27%的预测整体市场增长率的1.5倍增长。这将使我们在2026年（即五年后）的收入达到340亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长110%，明年将增长80%左右，一些读者可能会认为2023-2026年40%的增长率估计过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销量的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年，我们看到目前股价约为预期收入的7倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别为预期收入的6倍和9倍。我非常怀疑2026年电动汽车公司的平均销售倍数是否会达到高个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常交易的0.5-2倍收入倍数相差太大。但当我们假设蔚来作为一家纯电动汽车公司，在2020年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3倍或4倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将2026年收入预测提高3.5倍时，这相当于1190亿美元的市值——比蔚来目前的市值高出约90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。当我们假设到2026年股票数量将再增加20%，达到19亿股时，那么2026年股票交易价格将为61美元。这意味着该股未来五年的上涨潜力约为55%，即每年上涨约9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，蔚来是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是稳健的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，人们可以认为预测的增长太高或太低，或者2026年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前10美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在67美元的峰值买入蔚来是一个相当糟糕的决定。如今的蔚来股价高达30多美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来多年来很有可能带来稳健的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已经消化了大量增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的适应程度、在欧洲的推广情况以及其他国际市场将走向等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，以及特斯拉（增长较慢但估值仍较高）。如果看到蔚来的股票在2020年代实现稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对理所当然的事情，因为即使考虑到其强劲的增长，蔚来目前的估值仍然相当高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心且不介意未来产品发布和国际扩张、股票波动性等风险和不确定性的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这对每个人来说都不是一个好的选择，有些人可能希望在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据2021年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到18倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128017388","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.\nNIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.\n\nPhoto by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.\nNIO Stock Price\nNIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:\nData by YCharts\nAt slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.\nIs NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?\nNIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.\nThis means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.\nStill, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.\nFor 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of around 110% for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.\nMaintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.\nObvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.\nNIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nNIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.\nIn other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.\nFor my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall market growth rate of 27% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.\nWhat might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:\nData by YCharts\nLooking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.\nWhen we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.\nThat is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.\nIs NIO Stock A Buy Now?\nIn retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.\nI think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.\nFor those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.\nThe current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":369032448,"gmtCreate":1613987234184,"gmtModify":1634551653070,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>等你等到我心痛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>等你等到我心痛","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$等你等到我心痛","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efeb0c4164cc2fa20225ae2442bc2e76","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369032448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126102430,"gmtCreate":1624546457920,"gmtModify":1634004546001,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126102430","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135824852,"gmtCreate":1622158583976,"gmtModify":1634183391933,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Road to recover is slowly but surely&nbsp;","listText":"Road to recover is slowly but surely&nbsp;","text":"Road to recover is slowly but surely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135824852","repostId":"2138179881","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112185796,"gmtCreate":1622855967315,"gmtModify":1631886275325,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Blackberry seems promising&nbsp;","listText":"Blackberry seems promising&nbsp;","text":"Blackberry seems promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112185796","repostId":"2140409543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140409543","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622818486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140409543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140409543","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a ","content":"<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit WallStreetBets频道上讨论的许多模因股票在2021年上涨了三位数。（奥利维尔·杜利里/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票每天都主导着金融媒体。这是正确的——当交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获取巨额利润时，它们展示了沟通的力量。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司传统的盈利或销售增长衡量标准、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是创新产品或服务。但如此多的资金围绕这些股票进行交易，您至少应该了解正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>当然，试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者会关注每日交易量和股价的直接方向。但也有衡量人们在Reddit的WallStreetBets频道和其他社交媒体上交流的势头的指标。其中一种叫做“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者您可能想查看模因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为您反对它们的论据的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T.）是四家集团中的第一家，该集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司。但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只股票的列表中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值（百万美元）排序的：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都在飙升，尽管诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond的估值仅为两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成了1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是WallStreetBets上描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你就有无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨到多高。如果您直接购买股票（即持有多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格却走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会看涨期权收取保证金，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进入卖空交易之前会被经纪人告知这些规则。但当投资者耗尽现金时，保证金要求可能会导致轧空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在模因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets的工作人员能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票上下反弹，这种热潮仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>以下是年初至今的图表，显示了截至6月3日BANG股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头利息？以下是它们，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的空头头寸占流通股百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在当月25日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司4.2%的股票被卖空，但这相当于242亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为5830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，当游戏驿站拥有看似不可能的138%的空头权益时，负责多头和空头投资策略的康涅狄格州西港ActiveAlts首席执行官Brad Lamensdorf表示，空头百分比“超过30%至40%高得离谱”。当时我们列出了标准普尔综合1500指数中被做空25%或以上的30只股票。（Lamensdorf共同管理AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该ETF旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据FactSet的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票的空头比例为25%或以上：经营监狱的Geo Group Inc.，空头比例为33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头比例为28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，空头比例为25.8%。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空行为。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头兴趣较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒大流行对AMC产生了明显的残酷影响，其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家视频游戏零售商来说，游戏驿站多年来一直面临着一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，即使是针对主机游戏系统，而不是通过蓝光或其他在商店销售的媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易员能够通过Reddit和包括Robinhood在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年回顾</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看过去五个完整财年所有八家公司的销售业绩走向。我们关注的是财政年度，因为对于其中几家公司来说，财政年度与日历不匹配：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在疫情爆发之前，AMC的销售额就在2019年有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司是一家生产移动电信设备的公司，而不是苹果公司或三星公司，取得了令人印象深刻的销售数据。游戏驿站已经连续四年年销售额下降，而贝德柏士比昂公司(Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.)的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够充分利用他们筹集的所有资金会怎么样？从2021年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国大流行的大部分影响，在可能的情况下，以下是未来两年的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为FactSet无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对2023年进行预测的公司中，AMC预计销售复苏将接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到2023年销售额将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一栏是截至6月3日的市值与现有的最大销售估计的混合。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司与其他模因股票不同。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率预期的角度来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其组成部分公司2023年加权总销售额预期的2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对2023年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司的评级为“不适用”，因为AMC和黑莓的每股收益预期均为负值，而游戏驿站和Tilray的预期则从负到正再到负。对于预计将保持持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond）来说，当前价格与2023年每股收益预期的比率低于标普500 18.4的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>券商分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了12个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于多年来销售额和利润复合率较高的公司的长期投资者来说，这可能被认为太短了。但对于试图买入波动较大的模因股票以获取收益的交易者来说，这12个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪摘要（再次跳过Koss，该股票没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至6月3日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他模因股票，关注Reddit和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和高风险交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit WallStreetBets频道上讨论的许多模因股票在2021年上涨了三位数。（奥利维尔·杜利里/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票每天都主导着金融媒体。这是正确的——当交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获取巨额利润时，它们展示了沟通的力量。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司传统的盈利或销售增长衡量标准、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是创新产品或服务。但如此多的资金围绕这些股票进行交易，您至少应该了解正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>当然，试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者会关注每日交易量和股价的直接方向。但也有衡量人们在Reddit的WallStreetBets频道和其他社交媒体上交流的势头的指标。其中一种叫做“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者您可能想查看模因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为您反对它们的论据的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T.）是四家集团中的第一家，该集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司。但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只股票的列表中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值（百万美元）排序的：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都在飙升，尽管诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond的估值仅为两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成了1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是WallStreetBets上描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你就有无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨到多高。如果您直接购买股票（即持有多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格却走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会看涨期权收取保证金，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进入卖空交易之前会被经纪人告知这些规则。但当投资者耗尽现金时，保证金要求可能会导致轧空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在模因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets的工作人员能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票上下反弹，这种热潮仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>以下是年初至今的图表，显示了截至6月3日BANG股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头利息？以下是它们，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的空头头寸占流通股百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在当月25日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司4.2%的股票被卖空，但这相当于242亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为5830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，当游戏驿站拥有看似不可能的138%的空头权益时，负责多头和空头投资策略的康涅狄格州西港ActiveAlts首席执行官Brad Lamensdorf表示，空头百分比“超过30%至40%高得离谱”。当时我们列出了标准普尔综合1500指数中被做空25%或以上的30只股票。（Lamensdorf共同管理AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该ETF旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据FactSet的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票的空头比例为25%或以上：经营监狱的Geo Group Inc.，空头比例为33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头比例为28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，空头比例为25.8%。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空行为。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头兴趣较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒大流行对AMC产生了明显的残酷影响，其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家视频游戏零售商来说，游戏驿站多年来一直面临着一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，即使是针对主机游戏系统，而不是通过蓝光或其他在商店销售的媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易员能够通过Reddit和包括Robinhood在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年回顾</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看过去五个完整财年所有八家公司的销售业绩走向。我们关注的是财政年度，因为对于其中几家公司来说，财政年度与日历不匹配：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在疫情爆发之前，AMC的销售额就在2019年有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司是一家生产移动电信设备的公司，而不是苹果公司或三星公司，取得了令人印象深刻的销售数据。游戏驿站已经连续四年年销售额下降，而贝德柏士比昂公司(Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.)的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够充分利用他们筹集的所有资金会怎么样？从2021年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国大流行的大部分影响，在可能的情况下，以下是未来两年的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为FactSet无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对2023年进行预测的公司中，AMC预计销售复苏将接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到2023年销售额将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一栏是截至6月3日的市值与现有的最大销售估计的混合。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司与其他模因股票不同。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率预期的角度来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其组成部分公司2023年加权总销售额预期的2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对2023年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司的评级为“不适用”，因为AMC和黑莓的每股收益预期均为负值，而游戏驿站和Tilray的预期则从负到正再到负。对于预计将保持持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond）来说，当前价格与2023年每股收益预期的比率低于标普500 18.4的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>券商分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了12个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于多年来销售额和利润复合率较高的公司的长期投资者来说，这可能被认为太短了。但对于试图买入波动较大的模因股票以获取收益的交易者来说，这12个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪摘要（再次跳过Koss，该股票没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至6月3日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他模因股票，关注Reddit和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和高风险交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NOK":"诺基亚","BB":"黑莓","MVIS":"维视图像","GME":"游戏驿站","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140409543","content_text":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.The meme stocksIn talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:(FACTSET)AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond.The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.Short interestWhat started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:(FACTSET)How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:(FACTSET)FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operatorSo this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.Meme stocks' fundamentalsTo analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.Five-year reviewFirst, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:(FACTSET)Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. has been a little better.Looking ahead -- salesWhat if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:(FACTSET)You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. Tilray Inc. is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.Looking ahead -- earningsLet's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:(FACTSET)For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&P 500.Wall Street's ratings and targetsAnalysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):(FACTSET)Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9,"NOK":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"BB":0.9,"MVIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112169346,"gmtCreate":1622856132585,"gmtModify":1634097362580,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>finally on green patch","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>finally on green patch","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$finally on green patch","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b904e712870c599368c4837b97dfaff","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112169346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110261890,"gmtCreate":1622460768810,"gmtModify":1634101329760,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This pandemic gives rise to domestic travelling and really good for property owners","listText":"This pandemic gives rise to domestic travelling and really good for property owners","text":"This pandemic gives rise to domestic travelling and really good for property owners","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110261890","repostId":"2139487017","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386582809,"gmtCreate":1613205656601,"gmtModify":1631888693130,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIRC\">$Solar Integrated Roofing Corporation(SIRC)$</a>should I make up my position?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIRC\">$Solar Integrated Roofing Corporation(SIRC)$</a>should I make up my position?","text":"$Solar Integrated Roofing Corporation(SIRC)$should I make up my position?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddccb2a21ff26cf8a63febccc57446d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386582809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148938102,"gmtCreate":1625912304306,"gmtModify":1631888657826,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power of imagination&nbsp;","listText":"Power of imagination&nbsp;","text":"Power of imagination","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148938102","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119844540,"gmtCreate":1622537761380,"gmtModify":1634100700119,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏👏👏","listText":"👏👏👏","text":"👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119844540","repostId":"1112782785","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111472886,"gmtCreate":1622696127645,"gmtModify":1634099036900,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"All on ACM","listText":"All on ACM","text":"All on ACM","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111472886","repostId":"1140714291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132741462,"gmtCreate":1622118698456,"gmtModify":1634183707671,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"We will recover 💪","listText":"We will recover 💪","text":"We will recover 💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132741462","repostId":"1123499414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123499414","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622116868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123499414?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-27 20:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123499414","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures ticked lower on Thursday as investors turned to weekly unemployment claims ","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures ticked lower on Thursday as investors turned to weekly unemployment claims data amid fears that signs of an improving economy would lead the Federal Reserve to start tapering its accommodative monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，因担心经济改善迹象将导致美联储开始缩减宽松货币政策，投资者转向每周初请失业金数据。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 53.75 points, or 0.39%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-mini上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500 E-mini下跌7.5点，即0.18%，纳斯达克100 E-mini下跌53.75点，即0.39%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af643cbb0eca0b593a20dfd50b404673\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Worries about rising inflation and a potential tightening of policy have weighed on Wall Street’s main indexes in May, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 on course for its smallest monthly gain in four.</p><p><blockquote>对通胀上升和政策可能收紧的担忧在5月份打压了华尔街主要股指，基准标普500有望创下四年来的最小月度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Those concerns, however, eased this week as a number of Fed officials said the central bank would maintain its dovish stance, even as they acknowledged they were closer to debating reining in support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些担忧本周有所缓解，因为一些美联储官员表示，美联储将维持其鸽派立场，尽管他们承认他们更接近于讨论限制支持。</blockquote></p><p>Investor focus on Thursday will be on the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report, considered the most timely indicator of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>周四投资者的焦点将是劳工部的每周初请失业金报告，该报告被认为是经济健康状况最及时的指标。</blockquote></p><p>The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits likely stayed below 500,000 for a third straight week, the report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30（格林威治标准时间1230）发布的报告预计将显示，美国新申请失业救济的人数可能连续第三周保持在50万以下。</blockquote></p><p>A separate report is expected to confirm that the U.S. economy accelerated at its fastest pace in nearly four decades in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告预计将证实，美国经济在第一季度以近四十年来最快的速度加速。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Best Buy(BBY) </b>– Best Buy shares jumped 3.8% in the premarket after the electronics retailerreported quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share, which beat the consensus estimate of $1.39 a share. Revenue and comparable-store sales also exceeded Wall Street forecasts and Best Buy raised its full-year comparable sales forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>百思买(BBY)</b>-电子产品零售商百思买公布季度收益为每股2.23美元，超出每股1.39美元的普遍预期，该公司股价盘前上涨3.8%。收入和可比商店销售额也超出了华尔街的预期，百思买上调了全年可比销售额预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Snowflake(SNOW) </b>– Snowflakelost 11 cents per sharefor the first quarter, smaller than the 16 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The cloud computing company's revenue also topped forecasts, but shares fell 3.3% in the premarket as losses grow at a similar rate as its sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>雪花（雪）</b>-Snowflake第一季度每股亏损11美分，小于分析师预期的每股16美分。这家云计算公司的收入也超出了预期，但由于亏损增长速度与其销售额相似，股价在盘前下跌3.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Okta(OKTA) </b>– Okta shares fell 4.4% in premarket trading, after the maker of identity management software projected a larger-than-expected loss for the current quarter as well as announcing the upcoming departure of Chief Financial Officer Mike Kourey.</p><p><blockquote><b>奥克塔（奥克塔）</b>-身份管理软件制造商Okta预计本季度亏损超出预期，并宣布首席财务官Mike Kourey即将离职，该公司股价在盘前交易中下跌4.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Dollar General(DG)</b> – The discount retailer reported quarterly profit of $2.82 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.19 a share. Revenue exceeded estimates and comparable-store sales dropped less than expected. Dollar General also raised its full-year forecast after benefiting from a new round of government stimulus checks for its customers. Despite the beat, Dollar General shares fell 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Dollar General(DG)</b>-这家折扣零售商报告季度利润为每股2.82美元，超出市场普遍预期的每股2.19美元。收入超出预期，同店销售额降幅低于预期。在受益于政府对其客户的新一轮刺激检查后，Dollar General也上调了全年预期。尽管表现强劲，Dollar General股价在盘前交易中仍下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Medtronic(MDT) </b>– The medical device maker beat estimates by 8 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share. Revenue beat estimates as well, as medical procedures rebounded amid a receding pandemic. Medtronic also raised its dividend by 9%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美敦力（MDT）</b>–这家医疗设备制造商每股收益超出预期8美分，季度收益为每股1.50美元。随着疫情消退，医疗程序出现反弹，收入也超出了预期。美敦力也将股息提高了9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Dollar Tree(DLTR) </b>– The discount retailer's shares fell 2.7% in the premarket after it issued a lower-than-expected earnings outlook for the full year. Dollar Tree beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and comparable-store sales rose more than expected.</p><p><blockquote><b>美元树(DLTR)</b>-这家折扣零售商发布低于预期的全年盈利前景后，其股价盘前下跌2.7%。Dollar Tree最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，同店销售额的增长也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Williams-Sonoma(WSM)</b> – Williams-Sonoma earned $2.93 per share for its latest quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.83 a share. The housewares retailer’s revenue came in above forecasts, and it also gave an upbeat outlook as shoppers continue to invest in their homes. The stock rose 3.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>威廉姆斯-索诺玛(WSM)</b>-Williams-Sonoma最近一个季度的每股收益为2.93美元，超出了每股1.83美元的普遍预期。这家家居用品零售商的收入高于预期，而且随着购物者继续投资房屋，它也给出了乐观的前景。该股在盘前交易中上涨3.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>American Eagle(AEO)</b> – American Eaglebeat estimates by 2 cents a share, with quarterly profit of 48 cents per share. Revenue was slightly above Wall Street projections. The apparel retailer benefited from increased spending by customers who received stimulus checks, boosting demand and cutting the need for markdowns.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国之鹰(AEO)</b>–American Eaglebeat预计每股上涨2美分，季度利润为每股48美分。收入略高于华尔街的预测。这家服装零售商受益于收到刺激支票的顾客支出增加，从而提振了需求并减少了降价的需要。</blockquote></p><p><b>Nvidia(NVDA)</b> – Nvidiareported quarterly profit of $3.66 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $3.28 a share. Revenue exceeded Street forecasts, with the chip maker also issuing an upbeat revenue outlook. Nvidia said it could not determine how much of its revenue increase was generated by sales to cryptocurrency miners, who are using both crypto-specific chips as well as Nvidia’s gaming chips.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-Nvidia报告季度利润为每股3.66美元，而市场普遍预期为每股3.28美元。收入超出了华尔街的预测，这家芯片制造商还发布了乐观的收入前景。英伟达表示，无法确定其收入增长有多少来自对加密货币矿商的销售，这些矿商既使用加密专用芯片，也使用英伟达的游戏芯片。</blockquote></p><p><b>HSBC(HSBC)</b> – HSBC iswithdrawing from the U.S. retail banking market. It is selling its east coast banks toCitizens Financial Group’s(CFG) Citizens Bank and its west coast business to Cathay Bank, a unit ofCathay General Bancorp(CATY).</p><p><blockquote><b>汇丰银行(HSBC)</b>-汇丰银行正在退出美国零售银行市场。该公司正在将其东海岸银行出售给公民金融集团（CFG）的公民银行，并将其西海岸业务出售给国泰综合银行（CATY）的子公司国泰银行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Walmart(WMT) </b>– Walmart struck a deal with apparel retailerGap(GPS) tosell a new line of Gap-branded home goods. The new products will go on sale online June 24 and will eventually come to Walmart’s physical locations. Gap rose 1.3% in the premarket, while Walmart shares were little changed.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛(WMT)</b>-沃尔玛与服装零售商Gap(GPS)达成协议，销售一系列新的Gap品牌家居用品。新产品将于6月24日在网上销售，并最终到达沃尔玛的实体店。Gap盘前上涨1.3%，沃尔玛股价变化不大。</blockquote></p><p><b>Vir Biotechnology(VIR)</b> – The Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization to an antibody treatment for Covid-19 developed by Vir and partnerGlaxoSmithKline(GSK). The treatment is designed for patients 12 years and older with mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. Vir surged 9.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>维尔生物技术(VIR)</b>-美国食品药品监督管理局授予Vir和合作伙伴葛兰素史克（GSK）开发的一种Covid-19抗体治疗紧急使用授权。该疗法专为12岁及以上轻中度新冠肺炎患者设计。Vir在盘前交易中飙升9.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Workday(WDAY)</b> – Workday beat estimates by 14 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 87 cents per share. The maker of human resources software’s revenue also top estimates. Despite the beat and an upbeat outlook, Workday shares fell 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>工作日(WDAY)</b>-Workday每股收益超出预期14美分，季度收益为每股87美分。这家人力资源软件制造商的收入也高于预期。尽管表现良好且前景乐观，Workday股价在盘前仍下跌1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 20:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures ticked lower on Thursday as investors turned to weekly unemployment claims data amid fears that signs of an improving economy would lead the Federal Reserve to start tapering its accommodative monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，因担心经济改善迹象将导致美联储开始缩减宽松货币政策，投资者转向每周初请失业金数据。</blockquote></p><p>At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 17 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 53.75 points, or 0.39%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指E-mini上涨17点，即0.05%，标普500 E-mini下跌7.5点，即0.18%，纳斯达克100 E-mini下跌53.75点，即0.39%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af643cbb0eca0b593a20dfd50b404673\" tg-width=\"808\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Worries about rising inflation and a potential tightening of policy have weighed on Wall Street’s main indexes in May, with the benchmark S&amp;P 500 on course for its smallest monthly gain in four.</p><p><blockquote>对通胀上升和政策可能收紧的担忧在5月份打压了华尔街主要股指，基准标普500有望创下四年来的最小月度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Those concerns, however, eased this week as a number of Fed officials said the central bank would maintain its dovish stance, even as they acknowledged they were closer to debating reining in support.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这些担忧本周有所缓解，因为一些美联储官员表示，美联储将维持其鸽派立场，尽管他们承认他们更接近于讨论限制支持。</blockquote></p><p>Investor focus on Thursday will be on the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report, considered the most timely indicator of economic health.</p><p><blockquote>周四投资者的焦点将是劳工部的每周初请失业金报告，该报告被认为是经济健康状况最及时的指标。</blockquote></p><p>The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits likely stayed below 500,000 for a third straight week, the report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午8:30（格林威治标准时间1230）发布的报告预计将显示，美国新申请失业救济的人数可能连续第三周保持在50万以下。</blockquote></p><p>A separate report is expected to confirm that the U.S. economy accelerated at its fastest pace in nearly four decades in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>另一份报告预计将证实，美国经济在第一季度以近四十年来最快的速度加速。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Best Buy(BBY) </b>– Best Buy shares jumped 3.8% in the premarket after the electronics retailerreported quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share, which beat the consensus estimate of $1.39 a share. Revenue and comparable-store sales also exceeded Wall Street forecasts and Best Buy raised its full-year comparable sales forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>百思买(BBY)</b>-电子产品零售商百思买公布季度收益为每股2.23美元，超出每股1.39美元的普遍预期，该公司股价盘前上涨3.8%。收入和可比商店销售额也超出了华尔街的预期，百思买上调了全年可比销售额预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Snowflake(SNOW) </b>– Snowflakelost 11 cents per sharefor the first quarter, smaller than the 16 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The cloud computing company's revenue also topped forecasts, but shares fell 3.3% in the premarket as losses grow at a similar rate as its sales.</p><p><blockquote><b>雪花（雪）</b>-Snowflake第一季度每股亏损11美分，小于分析师预期的每股16美分。这家云计算公司的收入也超出了预期，但由于亏损增长速度与其销售额相似，股价在盘前下跌3.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Okta(OKTA) </b>– Okta shares fell 4.4% in premarket trading, after the maker of identity management software projected a larger-than-expected loss for the current quarter as well as announcing the upcoming departure of Chief Financial Officer Mike Kourey.</p><p><blockquote><b>奥克塔（奥克塔）</b>-身份管理软件制造商Okta预计本季度亏损超出预期，并宣布首席财务官Mike Kourey即将离职，该公司股价在盘前交易中下跌4.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Dollar General(DG)</b> – The discount retailer reported quarterly profit of $2.82 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.19 a share. Revenue exceeded estimates and comparable-store sales dropped less than expected. Dollar General also raised its full-year forecast after benefiting from a new round of government stimulus checks for its customers. Despite the beat, Dollar General shares fell 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Dollar General(DG)</b>-这家折扣零售商报告季度利润为每股2.82美元，超出市场普遍预期的每股2.19美元。收入超出预期，同店销售额降幅低于预期。在受益于政府对其客户的新一轮刺激检查后，Dollar General也上调了全年预期。尽管表现强劲，Dollar General股价在盘前交易中仍下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Medtronic(MDT) </b>– The medical device maker beat estimates by 8 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share. Revenue beat estimates as well, as medical procedures rebounded amid a receding pandemic. Medtronic also raised its dividend by 9%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美敦力（MDT）</b>–这家医疗设备制造商每股收益超出预期8美分，季度收益为每股1.50美元。随着疫情消退，医疗程序出现反弹，收入也超出了预期。美敦力也将股息提高了9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Dollar Tree(DLTR) </b>– The discount retailer's shares fell 2.7% in the premarket after it issued a lower-than-expected earnings outlook for the full year. Dollar Tree beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and comparable-store sales rose more than expected.</p><p><blockquote><b>美元树(DLTR)</b>-这家折扣零售商发布低于预期的全年盈利前景后，其股价盘前下跌2.7%。Dollar Tree最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，同店销售额的增长也超出了预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Williams-Sonoma(WSM)</b> – Williams-Sonoma earned $2.93 per share for its latest quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.83 a share. The housewares retailer’s revenue came in above forecasts, and it also gave an upbeat outlook as shoppers continue to invest in their homes. The stock rose 3.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>威廉姆斯-索诺玛(WSM)</b>-Williams-Sonoma最近一个季度的每股收益为2.93美元，超出了每股1.83美元的普遍预期。这家家居用品零售商的收入高于预期，而且随着购物者继续投资房屋，它也给出了乐观的前景。该股在盘前交易中上涨3.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>American Eagle(AEO)</b> – American Eaglebeat estimates by 2 cents a share, with quarterly profit of 48 cents per share. Revenue was slightly above Wall Street projections. The apparel retailer benefited from increased spending by customers who received stimulus checks, boosting demand and cutting the need for markdowns.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国之鹰(AEO)</b>–American Eaglebeat预计每股上涨2美分，季度利润为每股48美分。收入略高于华尔街的预测。这家服装零售商受益于收到刺激支票的顾客支出增加，从而提振了需求并减少了降价的需要。</blockquote></p><p><b>Nvidia(NVDA)</b> – Nvidiareported quarterly profit of $3.66 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $3.28 a share. Revenue exceeded Street forecasts, with the chip maker also issuing an upbeat revenue outlook. Nvidia said it could not determine how much of its revenue increase was generated by sales to cryptocurrency miners, who are using both crypto-specific chips as well as Nvidia’s gaming chips.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-Nvidia报告季度利润为每股3.66美元，而市场普遍预期为每股3.28美元。收入超出了华尔街的预测，这家芯片制造商还发布了乐观的收入前景。英伟达表示，无法确定其收入增长有多少来自对加密货币矿商的销售，这些矿商既使用加密专用芯片，也使用英伟达的游戏芯片。</blockquote></p><p><b>HSBC(HSBC)</b> – HSBC iswithdrawing from the U.S. retail banking market. It is selling its east coast banks toCitizens Financial Group’s(CFG) Citizens Bank and its west coast business to Cathay Bank, a unit ofCathay General Bancorp(CATY).</p><p><blockquote><b>汇丰银行(HSBC)</b>-汇丰银行正在退出美国零售银行市场。该公司正在将其东海岸银行出售给公民金融集团（CFG）的公民银行，并将其西海岸业务出售给国泰综合银行（CATY）的子公司国泰银行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>Walmart(WMT) </b>– Walmart struck a deal with apparel retailerGap(GPS) tosell a new line of Gap-branded home goods. The new products will go on sale online June 24 and will eventually come to Walmart’s physical locations. Gap rose 1.3% in the premarket, while Walmart shares were little changed.</p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛(WMT)</b>-沃尔玛与服装零售商Gap(GPS)达成协议，销售一系列新的Gap品牌家居用品。新产品将于6月24日在网上销售，并最终到达沃尔玛的实体店。Gap盘前上涨1.3%，沃尔玛股价变化不大。</blockquote></p><p><b>Vir Biotechnology(VIR)</b> – The Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization to an antibody treatment for Covid-19 developed by Vir and partnerGlaxoSmithKline(GSK). The treatment is designed for patients 12 years and older with mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. Vir surged 9.1% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>维尔生物技术(VIR)</b>-美国食品药品监督管理局授予Vir和合作伙伴葛兰素史克（GSK）开发的一种Covid-19抗体治疗紧急使用授权。该疗法专为12岁及以上轻中度新冠肺炎患者设计。Vir在盘前交易中飙升9.1%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Workday(WDAY)</b> – Workday beat estimates by 14 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 87 cents per share. The maker of human resources software’s revenue also top estimates. Despite the beat and an upbeat outlook, Workday shares fell 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>工作日(WDAY)</b>-Workday每股收益超出预期14美分，季度收益为每股87美分。这家人力资源软件制造商的收入也高于预期。尽管表现良好且前景乐观，Workday股价在盘前仍下跌1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"0KVV.UK":"空中客车集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123499414","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures ticked lower on Thursday as investors turned to weekly unemployment claims data amid fears that signs of an improving economy would lead the Federal Reserve to start tapering its accommodative monetary policy.At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 17 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.18% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 53.75 points, or 0.39%.*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05Worries about rising inflation and a potential tightening of policy have weighed on Wall Street’s main indexes in May, with the benchmark S&P 500 on course for its smallest monthly gain in four.Those concerns, however, eased this week as a number of Fed officials said the central bank would maintain its dovish stance, even as they acknowledged they were closer to debating reining in support.Investor focus on Thursday will be on the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report, considered the most timely indicator of economic health.The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits likely stayed below 500,000 for a third straight week, the report due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show.A separate report is expected to confirm that the U.S. economy accelerated at its fastest pace in nearly four decades in the first quarter.Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:Best Buy(BBY) – Best Buy shares jumped 3.8% in the premarket after the electronics retailerreported quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share, which beat the consensus estimate of $1.39 a share. Revenue and comparable-store sales also exceeded Wall Street forecasts and Best Buy raised its full-year comparable sales forecast.Snowflake(SNOW) – Snowflakelost 11 cents per sharefor the first quarter, smaller than the 16 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The cloud computing company's revenue also topped forecasts, but shares fell 3.3% in the premarket as losses grow at a similar rate as its sales.Okta(OKTA) – Okta shares fell 4.4% in premarket trading, after the maker of identity management software projected a larger-than-expected loss for the current quarter as well as announcing the upcoming departure of Chief Financial Officer Mike Kourey.Dollar General(DG) – The discount retailer reported quarterly profit of $2.82 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.19 a share. Revenue exceeded estimates and comparable-store sales dropped less than expected. Dollar General also raised its full-year forecast after benefiting from a new round of government stimulus checks for its customers. Despite the beat, Dollar General shares fell 1.5% in premarket trading.Medtronic(MDT) – The medical device maker beat estimates by 8 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share. Revenue beat estimates as well, as medical procedures rebounded amid a receding pandemic. Medtronic also raised its dividend by 9%.Dollar Tree(DLTR) – The discount retailer's shares fell 2.7% in the premarket after it issued a lower-than-expected earnings outlook for the full year. Dollar Tree beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and comparable-store sales rose more than expected.Williams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma earned $2.93 per share for its latest quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $1.83 a share. The housewares retailer’s revenue came in above forecasts, and it also gave an upbeat outlook as shoppers continue to invest in their homes. The stock rose 3.3% in premarket trading.American Eagle(AEO) – American Eaglebeat estimates by 2 cents a share, with quarterly profit of 48 cents per share. Revenue was slightly above Wall Street projections. The apparel retailer benefited from increased spending by customers who received stimulus checks, boosting demand and cutting the need for markdowns.Nvidia(NVDA) – Nvidiareported quarterly profit of $3.66 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $3.28 a share. Revenue exceeded Street forecasts, with the chip maker also issuing an upbeat revenue outlook. Nvidia said it could not determine how much of its revenue increase was generated by sales to cryptocurrency miners, who are using both crypto-specific chips as well as Nvidia’s gaming chips.HSBC(HSBC) – HSBC iswithdrawing from the U.S. retail banking market. It is selling its east coast banks toCitizens Financial Group’s(CFG) Citizens Bank and its west coast business to Cathay Bank, a unit ofCathay General Bancorp(CATY).Walmart(WMT) – Walmart struck a deal with apparel retailerGap(GPS) tosell a new line of Gap-branded home goods. The new products will go on sale online June 24 and will eventually come to Walmart’s physical locations. Gap rose 1.3% in the premarket, while Walmart shares were little changed.Vir Biotechnology(VIR) – The Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization to an antibody treatment for Covid-19 developed by Vir and partnerGlaxoSmithKline(GSK). The treatment is designed for patients 12 years and older with mild to moderate cases of Covid-19. Vir surged 9.1% in premarket action.Workday(WDAY) – Workday beat estimates by 14 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 87 cents per share. The maker of human resources software’s revenue also top estimates. Despite the beat and an upbeat outlook, Workday shares fell 1.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"0KVV.UK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102242813,"gmtCreate":1620221353632,"gmtModify":1634206892644,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Did u join the heat??","listText":"Did u join the heat??","text":"Did u join the heat??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102242813","repostId":"1115203133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620178775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115203133?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 09:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203133","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image ","content":"<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is dogecoin’s price spiking? The crypto has surged 11,000% in 2021<blockquote>狗狗币价格为何飙升？2021年加密货币飙升11,000%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Wacth</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 09:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Every dog has its day…but a whole year?</p><p><blockquote>每只狗都有它的一天…但是一整年呢？</blockquote></p><p>Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，狗狗币（与柴犬图像相关的模因加密货币）一直是近年来加密货币最好的一年，今年迄今的涨幅超过11,000%，并跻身前10名今年最有价值的数字资产。</blockquote></p><p>At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinDesk的数据，根据上次检查，dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%的易手价格为54美分，过去24小时内上涨了23%以上，2021年迄今为止上涨了约11,210%。</blockquote></p><p>That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.</p><p><blockquote>这种抛物线式上涨既引起了掌声，也引起了担忧，因为其支持者的目标是将这枚模仿硬币的价值推至接近1美元，批评者警告说，该资产具有资产泡沫的所有特征，资产泡沫必然会破裂并留下大屠杀。</blockquote></p><p>Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c7201d3eb982c0d5d636bf8ff4a1ca7\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,”&nbsp;on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>只是，不要告诉那些为加密货币欢呼的人，否则就有可能遇到这种常见的重复：“享受贫穷。”那么，为什么狗狗币（发音为“dōj-coin”）会遭受如此巨大的损失，以至于超过了被认为是数字资产和区块链时代更严肃代表的加密货币？以下是一些原因：</blockquote></p><p>Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’</p><p><blockquote>其最大的助推器将是客座主持人“SNL”</blockquote></p><p>Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers&nbsp;for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公司和SpaceX的首席执行官Elon Musk将于本周末主持“周六夜现场”，这已经为这位技术专家赢得了欢呼和嘲笑。他已经成为今年dogecoin最著名和最直言不讳的拥护者之一，一些人猜测他可以做些什么来推广doge。</blockquote></p><p>Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克在《周六夜现场》演出前的一条推文中确实称自己为“狗爸爸”。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54a1a1602240507ad985c5efcb2571f5\" tg-width=\"501\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Brokerages trade dogecoin</p><p><blockquote>券商交易狗狗币</blockquote></p><p>A number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.</p><p><blockquote>一些新的场所已经宣布，他们将在最近几天和几周内在他们的交易所交易狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform&nbsp;eToro also made dogecoin&nbsp;available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币交易所Geminion周二宣布支持该硬币的交易和托管。交易平台eToro也在其平台上提供狗狗币交易。Webull于4月20日允许其用户重新购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>FOMO</p><p><blockquote>FOMO</blockquote></p><p>Fear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.</p><p><blockquote>据说，对错过的恐惧也是激增的原因。一些加密货币参与者推测，狗狗币的上涨得到了散户交易者的支持，他们认为这种模仿币比比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)更容易获得投资（或交易），比特币BTCUSD(-0.16%)在CoinDesk上最后一次检查时易手价格为54,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>“Dogecoin&nbsp;is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.</p><p><blockquote>Oanda高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚(Edward Moya)在每日报告中写道：“狗狗币正在飙升，因为许多加密货币交易者不想错过埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)主持《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)引发的任何轰动。”</blockquote></p><p>Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.</p><p><blockquote>传统资产的收益也可能看起来更加平淡无奇。相比之下，黄金期货GC00, 0.17%今年迄今已下跌6%，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA,+0.06%和标普500指数SPX,-0.67%在2021年至少上涨10%，而纳斯达克综合指数COMP,-1.88%涨幅超过5%。</blockquote></p><p>Accessibility</p><p><blockquote>可访问性</blockquote></p><p>Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of&nbsp;Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.</p><p><blockquote>Allnodes首席执行官康斯坦丁·博伊科-罗曼诺夫斯基(Konstantin Boyko-Romanovsky)通过电子邮件表示，他认为马斯克和亿万富翁马克·库班(Mark Cuban)的支持是狗狗币牛市论点的核心，但也表示，有些人可能认为与比特币相比，这种加密货币更容易使用，最近在冷却之前触及60,000美元以上的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“它对公众更有吸引力，因为它的成本很低。一张比特币6万美元可能会让一些人感到害怕。在某种程度上，doge更像是一种美元，但以数字形式，”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>Bubbles &amp; manias</p><p><blockquote>泡沫与狂热</blockquote></p><p>Moya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”</p><p><blockquote>莫亚写道，狗狗币泡沫“现在应该已经破裂，但机构兴趣正试图利用这一势头，这可能会支持进一步推高。”</blockquote></p><p>Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.</p><p><blockquote>许多怀疑论者警告说，如果狗狗币不谨慎地涉足该资产，可能会给许多新手投资者带来巨大损失。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page\">Market Wacth</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-dogecoins-price-spiking-the-crypto-has-surged-11-000-in-2021-11620151738?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203133","content_text":"Every dog has its day…but a whole year?Indeed, dogecoin, the meme cryptocurrency linked to an image of a Shiba Inu dog, has been enjoying one of the best years for cryptocurrency in recent memory, boasting year-to-date gains of more than 11,000% and putting it in the top 10 of the most highly valued digital assets this year.At last check, dogecoinDOGEUSD,+8.26%was changing hands at 54 cents, up more than 23% in the past 24 hours and up around 11,210% so far in 2021, according to CoinDesk.That parabolic rise is drawing both applause and apprehension as its supporters aim to drive the parody coin to a value near $1, with critics warning that the asset bears all the hallmarks of an asset bubble that is bound to pop and leave carnage in its wake.Only, don’t tell that to those cheerleading the crypto, or risk being met with this common refrain: “enjoy being poor.”So why is dogecoin, pronounced “dōj-coin,” on such a monumental tear that has outstripped crypto considered more serious representatives of the age of digital assets and blockchain? Here are a few reasons:Its biggest booster set to guest host ‘SNL’Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, will host “Saturday Night Live” this weekend, which has already drawn cheers and jeers for the technologist. He has become one of the most prominent and vocal champions of dogecoin this year and some speculate that he could do something to promote doge.Musk did refer to himself as the “dogefather” in one recent tweet ahead of his “Saturday Night Live” gig.Brokerages trade dogecoinA number of new venues have announced that they will trade dogecoin on their exchanges in recent days and weeks.Crypto exchange Geminion Tuesdayannounced trading and custody support for the coin. Trading platform eToro also made dogecoin available for trading on its platform.Webullallowed its users to purchase dogecoin back on April 20.FOMOFear of missing out also is said to be behind the surge. Some crypto participants speculate that the rise in dogecoin is being supported by retail traders who see the parody coin as more accessible investment (or trade) than, say, bitcoinBTCUSD,-0.16%,which was changing hands at $54,000, at last check on CoinDesk.“Dogecoin is surging because many cryptocurrency traders do not want to miss out on any buzz that stems from Elon Musk’s hosting of ‘Saturday Night Live,’” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a daily note.Gains in traditional assets also might seem more pedestrian. By comparison, gold futuresGC00,0.17%are down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.06%and the S&P 500 indexSPX,-0.67%are up by at least 10% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,-1.88%has gained over 5%.AccessibilityKonstantin Boyko-Romanovsky, CEO of Allnodes, via an emailed message, said he viewed support from Musk and fellow billionaire Mark Cuban as central to the bull thesis for dogecoin, but also said that some may perceive the crypto as more accessible compared against bitcoin, which hit a recent peak above $60,000 before cooling.“It appeals more to the general public because it costs so little. $60,000 for a single bitcoin may be intimidating to some. In a way, doge then is more like a USD but in a digital form,” he wrote.Bubbles & maniasMoya wrote that the dogecoin bubble should have “popped by now, but institutional interest is trying to take advantage of this momentum and that could support another push higher.”Many skeptics warn that dogecoin could leave a lot of newbie investors hemorrhaging losses if they wade into the asset imprudently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377219087,"gmtCreate":1619530144349,"gmtModify":1634212024095,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long term investment&nbsp;","listText":"Long term investment&nbsp;","text":"Long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377219087","repostId":"1118284851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800055852,"gmtCreate":1627267637876,"gmtModify":1631884081674,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"New week and marching towards the green patches","listText":"New week and marching towards the green patches","text":"New week and marching towards the green patches","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800055852","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123603736,"gmtCreate":1624418803125,"gmtModify":1634006381027,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123603736","repostId":"2145066828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111700800,"gmtCreate":1622696285500,"gmtModify":1634099034064,"author":{"id":"3575286791359007","authorId":"3575286791359007","name":"allycat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/787fa8406566069a2cee1be809c719e1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575286791359007","idStr":"3575286791359007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very promising&nbsp;","listText":"Very promising&nbsp;","text":"Very promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111700800","repostId":"1128017388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128017388","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622618011,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128017388?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128017388","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provid","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车公司，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该可以帮助蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的大量增长已经被消化。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在中国本土市场享有增长势头，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的影响力。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么昂贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然存在大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不是确定的，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其目前的估值上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前的估值略低于40美元，但估值超过600亿美元。这比该股在2021年初达到峰值时的估值低约40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情下降，因为包括特斯拉(TSLA)在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也有所回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特(F)大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。除此之外，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括ES6和ES8 SUV等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的区别在于其电池交换技术，该技术允许消费者在访问蔚来的电池交换站之一时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机汽车加油所需的时间相同，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远不止几分钟。蔚来的电池交换站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有任何有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划多年来在国际市场上推出这项服务，一旦它们的足迹足够大以发挥作用，这应该成为蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与其他产品区分开来。大多数同行。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增加，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，在交付量强劲增长的背景下，蔚来的收入可能会增长100%以上，因为分析师群体目前预测今年的收入将增长130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长480%后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率约为110%。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年将增长约50%-60%，约为增长率的一半预计今年蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%以上的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这一水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司也雄心勃勃地计划进军庞大的欧洲电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍应实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长推动力并不一定等同于股价的大幅上涨。投资者应该考虑到，与所有汽车公司一样，蔚来将活跃于周期性、资本密集型行业，该行业的平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，尽管电动汽车销量增长迅速，但在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时并不能保证全垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长100%以上，但超过这一点的增长预测差异更大。例如，展望2022年，分析师对蔚来收入的共识为87亿美元，比2021年的共识增长78%。然而，预测范围很广，分析师预测2022年收入在73亿美元至119亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的预测认为蔚来的收入比最悲观的预测高出60%。由于这些估计是针对2022年（距离现在只有一年）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数据是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对2025年收入的估计，我将采用分析师对2022年的共识，即87亿美元，然后假设2023年、2024年、2025年和2026年收入将以27%的预测整体市场增长率的1.5倍增长。这将使我们在2026年（即五年后）的收入达到340亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长110%，明年将增长80%左右，一些读者可能会认为2023-2026年40%的增长率估计过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销量的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年，我们看到目前股价约为预期收入的7倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别为预期收入的6倍和9倍。我非常怀疑2026年电动汽车公司的平均销售倍数是否会达到高个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常交易的0.5-2倍收入倍数相差太大。但当我们假设蔚来作为一家纯电动汽车公司，在2020年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3倍或4倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将2026年收入预测提高3.5倍时，这相当于1190亿美元的市值——比蔚来目前的市值高出约90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。当我们假设到2026年股票数量将再增加20%，达到19亿股时，那么2026年股票交易价格将为61美元。这意味着该股未来五年的上涨潜力约为55%，即每年上涨约9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，蔚来是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是稳健的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，人们可以认为预测的增长太高或太低，或者2026年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前10美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在67美元的峰值买入蔚来是一个相当糟糕的决定。如今的蔚来股价高达30多美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来多年来很有可能带来稳健的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已经消化了大量增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的适应程度、在欧洲的推广情况以及其他国际市场将走向等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，以及特斯拉（增长较慢但估值仍较高）。如果看到蔚来的股票在2020年代实现稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对理所当然的事情，因为即使考虑到其强劲的增长，蔚来目前的估值仍然相当高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心且不介意未来产品发布和国际扩张、股票波动性等风险和不确定性的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这对每个人来说都不是一个好的选择，有些人可能希望在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据2021年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到18倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will NIO Stock Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后蔚来股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.</li>  <li>Its BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.</li>  <li>NIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/215963a081072a260aa40bbb8991be26\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是一家高增长的中国电动汽车公司，拥有极具吸引力的产品。</li><li>其BaaS技术提供了一个USP，应该可以帮助蔚来在未来几年获得市场份额。</li><li>蔚来的估值很高，未来的大量增长已经被消化。投资者可能必须耐心等待增长故事的展开。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是一家高增长的纯电动汽车公司，提供电池即服务等独特产品。该公司在中国本土市场享有增长势头，并将在未来几年大幅增加其在海外市场的影响力。蔚来的股价不像其他一些电动汽车股票那么昂贵，但另一方面，与传统汽车公司的估值相比，其股价仍然存在大幅溢价。总体而言，蔚来可能会在未来几年返还大量资金，但这并不是确定的，投资者应密切关注蔚来的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股价</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是中国领先的纯电动汽车公司之一，这反映在其目前的估值上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/335372a846d2b847c5006c47a65abf2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前的估值略低于40美元，但估值超过600亿美元。这比该股在2021年初达到峰值时的估值低约40%，这反映出人们对电动汽车股票的热情下降，因为包括特斯拉(TSLA)在内的大多数蔚来同行的股价也有所回升。不过，作为参考，蔚来的估值与福特(F)大致相同——就收入和汽车销量而言，福特目前是一家规模更大的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来是一只好的长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来活跃于高增长的电动汽车市场，因此从市场增长的顺风中受益匪浅。除此之外，蔚来还拥有极具吸引力的产品组合，其中包括ES6和ES8 SUV等广受好评的车型。蔚来与大多数其他电动汽车公司的区别在于其电池交换技术，该技术允许消费者在访问蔚来的电池交换站之一时在几分钟内获得充满电的电池。</blockquote></p><p> This means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着通过电动汽车进行长途旅行时的停机时间大大减少，因为更换电池所需的时间大约与为内燃机汽车加油所需的时间相同，而为大多数电动汽车充电所需的时间远不止几分钟。蔚来的电池交换站目前正在中国各地建设，尽管在蔚来本土市场之外还没有任何有意义的足迹。</blockquote></p><p> Still, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，蔚来计划多年来在国际市场上推出这项服务，一旦它们的足迹足够大以发挥作用，这应该成为蔚来的一个独特卖点，有助于将其产品与其他产品区分开来。大多数同行。我相信，这可能会导致市场份额进一步增加，这就是为什么我不会对蔚来在未来几年快速增长感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> For 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of&nbsp;around 110%&nbsp;for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，在交付量强劲增长的背景下，蔚来的收入可能会增长100%以上，因为分析师群体目前预测今年的收入将增长130%。继第一季度收入大幅增长480%后，蔚来预计第二季度的交付量增长率约为110%。因此，蔚来的增长速度快于整个电动汽车市场，也快于特斯拉等同行，据分析师界称，特斯拉今年将增长约50%-60%，约为增长率的一半预计今年蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> Maintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the&nbsp;large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>当然，永远保持100%以上的增长是不可能的，未来几年蔚来的增长将从这一水平下降。但由于其产品在国内市场广受欢迎，同时该公司也雄心勃勃地计划进军庞大的欧洲电动汽车市场，蔚来在未来几年仍应实现非常可观的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Obvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于一家公司甚至一个行业来说，明显的增长推动力并不一定等同于股价的大幅上涨。投资者应该考虑到，与所有汽车公司一样，蔚来将活跃于周期性、资本密集型行业，该行业的平均利润率不是很高。这并不意味着蔚来没有长期上涨空间，但投资者应该记住，尽管电动汽车销量增长迅速，但在投资蔚来或其他电动汽车股票时并不能保证全垒打。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5年后蔚来股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>根据大多数估计，蔚来今年的收入将增长100%以上，但超过这一点的增长预测差异更大。例如，展望2022年，分析师对蔚来收入的共识为87亿美元，比2021年的共识增长78%。然而，预测范围很广，分析师预测2022年收入在73亿美元至119亿美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，最乐观的预测认为蔚来的收入比最悲观的预测高出60%。由于这些估计是针对2022年（距离现在只有一年）做出的，这种巨大的差异表明，对于像蔚来这样的公司来说，预测准确的收入或盈利数据是多么困难。</blockquote></p><p> For my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall&nbsp;market growth rate of 27%&nbsp;in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于我对2025年收入的估计，我将采用分析师对2022年的共识，即87亿美元，然后假设2023年、2024年、2025年和2026年收入将以27%的预测整体市场增长率的1.5倍增长。这将使我们在2026年（即五年后）的收入达到340亿美元。由于分析师目前预测今年收入将增长110%，明年将增长80%左右，一些读者可能会认为2023-2026年40%的增长率估计过于保守。但围绕竞争压力、政府政策等的主要未知和不确定性。，意味着我认为提前多年预测更高的增长率可能过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> What might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:</p><p><blockquote>340亿美元的营收对蔚来股价意味着什么？目前，该股估值为今年预期销量的11.6倍，几乎与小鹏汽车（XPEV）的估值完全一致，略低于特斯拉：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae661b708eec89bcb50b06a1b6947280\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年，我们看到目前股价约为预期收入的7倍，而小鹏汽车和特斯拉目前的交易价格分别为预期收入的6倍和9倍。我非常怀疑2026年电动汽车公司的平均销售倍数是否会达到高个位数甚至两位数，因为这与传统汽车公司通常交易的0.5-2倍收入倍数相差太大。但当我们假设蔚来作为一家纯电动汽车公司，在2020年代中期仍将以高于传统汽车的价格进行交易时，3倍或4倍的销售倍数可能是一个现实的估计。</blockquote></p><p> When we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将2026年收入预测提高3.5倍时，这相当于1190亿美元的市值——比蔚来目前的市值高出约90%。然而，蔚来的股票数量并不是一成不变的，事实上，过去一直在大幅上升。当我们假设到2026年股票数量将再增加20%，达到19亿股时，那么2026年股票交易价格将为61美元。这意味着该股未来五年的上涨潜力约为55%，即每年上涨约9%。</blockquote></p><p> That is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.</p><p><blockquote>这并非完全没有吸引力，但也不是绝对出色的回报。最重要的是，与许多其他电动汽车初创公司一样，蔚来是一家波动性高于平均水平、风险高于平均水平和不确定性高于平均水平的公司。因此，我不会认为看涨期权·蔚来在当前价格下过于有吸引力，因为预测回报是稳健的，但伴随着相当大的风险/不确定性。当然，人们可以认为预测的增长太高或太低，或者2026年的目标销售倍数应该有所不同。然而，作为一个基本情况，我觉得这是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Stock A Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，很明显，大约一年前10美元的蔚来是一个很好的机会，而今年早些时候在67美元的峰值买入蔚来是一个相当糟糕的决定。如今的蔚来股价高达30多美元，介于这两个极端之间。我相信，对于长期投资者来说，蔚来多年来很有可能带来稳健的回报。然而，与此同时，该股目前已经消化了大量增长，无法预测竞争对手在未来几年会做什么、政府对电动汽车的适应程度、在欧洲的推广情况以及其他国际市场将走向等。</blockquote></p><p> I think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>我认为蔚来比当今许多其他电动汽车公司更具吸引力，包括许多尚未拥有任何可行产品的电动汽车初创公司，以及特斯拉（增长较慢但估值仍较高）。如果看到蔚来的股票在2020年代实现稳健的回报，我不会感到惊讶。然而，我认为今天购买蔚来并不是绝对理所当然的事情，因为即使考虑到其强劲的增长，蔚来目前的估值仍然相当高。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些有进取心且不介意未来产品发布和国际扩张、股票波动性等风险和不确定性的人来说，蔚来今天可能值得买入。但这对每个人来说都不是一个好的选择，有些人可能希望在场外观看电动汽车竞赛，而不是以当前的估值将资金置于风险之中。</blockquote></p><p> The current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. Over the next five years, however, a share price in that region seems achievable, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>目前分析师一致的股价目标是59美元，但我个人认为这在短期内是不现实的。根据2021年的预期收入，这将使蔚来的销售倍数达到18倍，我认为这是不合理的。然而，我相信，在未来五年内，该地区的股价似乎是可以实现的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432423-nio-stock-in-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128017388","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a high-growth Chinese EV player with attractive products.\nIts BaaS technology provides a USP that should help NIO gain market share in the coming years.\nNIO is trading at a high valuation, and a lot of future growth is priced in already. Investors may have to be patient to see the growth story play out.\n\nPhoto by Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO (NIO) is a high-growth EV pure-play with unique offerings such as battery-as-a-service. The company enjoys growth tailwinds in its home market China and will increase its presence in overseas markets dramatically in the coming years. NIO is not as expensive as some other EV stocks, but shares are, on the other hand, still trading at a steep premium compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. Overall, NIO could return significant amounts of money in the coming years, but that is not a certainty, and investors should keep an eye on NIO's risk factors.\nNIO Stock Price\nNIO, Inc. is one of China's leading EV pure-plays, and that is reflected in its current valuation:\nData by YCharts\nAt slightly below $40, NIO is valued at more than $60 billion right now. This is about 40% less than the valuation shares have traded at when they peaked in early 2021, which reflects the declining enthusiasm for EV stocks, as most of NIO's peers, including Tesla (TSLA), have seen their shares come back as well. Still, for reference, NIO is valued around the same level as Ford (F) - which is a way larger company for now, in terms of revenue and vehicle sales.\nIs NIO A Good Long-Term Stock?\nNIO is active in the high-growth EV market and thus benefits a lot from market growth tailwinds. On top of that, NIO also has an attractive product portfolio that includes well-received models such as the ES6 and ES8 SUVs. What differentiates NIO from most other EV companies is its battery-swapping technology that allows consumers to get a fully-charged battery in a couple of minutes when visiting one of NIO's battery-swapping stations.\nThis means that the downtime when doing longer trips via an EV is reduced dramatically, as a battery-swap takes roughly as much time as refueling an ICE-powered car, whereas recharging most EVs takes well more than a couple of minutes. NIO's battery-swapping stations are being built out around China right now, although there is no meaningful footprint outside of NIO's home market yet.\nStill, NIO plans to roll out that service in international markets over the years, and once there is a large enough footprint of them to make a difference, this should be a unique selling point for NIO that will help differentiate its offerings from those of most peers. This could, I believe, result in further market share gains, which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see NIO grow at a rapid pace for the coming years.\nFor 2021, NIO will likely deliver revenue growth of more than 100% on the back of strong deliveries growth, as the analyst community is currently forecasting a 130% revenue increase this year. For Q2, NIO is expecting a growth rate of around 110% for its deliveries, following a massive 480% revenue increase during the first quarter. NIO thus is growing quicker than the EV market as a whole, and also quicker than peers such as Tesla, which will grow by around 50%-60% this year, according to the analyst community, which is about half the growth rate that is expected for NIO this year.\nMaintaining 100%+ growth forever is, of course, not possible, and NIO's growth will decline from that level in the coming years. But due to the fact that its products are well-liked in its home market, while the company is also ambitiously planning a major entry into the large European EV market, NIO should still deliver very considerable growth in the coming years.\nObvious growth tailwinds for a company, or even an industry, do not necessarily equate to massive share price upside, however. Investors should consider that NIO will, like all auto companies, be active in a cyclical, capital-intense industry where margins, on average, are not very high. This doesn't mean that NIO does not have long-term upside, but investors should keep in mind that a home run is not guaranteed when investing in NIO or other EV stocks - despite the fact that EV sales are growing quickly.\nNIO Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nNIO will grow its revenues by more than 100% this year, according to most estimates, but growth projections beyond that point are varying a lot more. Looking at 2022, for example, the analyst consensus for NIO's revenues is $8.7 billion, which would reflect a 78% increase versus the consensus for 2021. Estimates are in a wide range, however, as analyst estimates range from $7.3 billion to $11.9 billion in revenue in 2022.\nIn other words, the most bullish estimates see NIO deliver 60% higher revenues than the most bearish estimates. Since these estimates are being made for 2022 - just one year from now - this wide discrepancy shows how hard it is to forecast exact revenue or earnings numbers for a company like NIO.\nFor my estimate for 2025's revenues, I'll go with the analyst consensus for 2022, i.e. $8.7 billion, and then assume that revenues will grow at 1.5x the forecasted overall market growth rate of 27% in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026. This would get us to $34 billion in revenue in 2026, i.e. five years from now. Since analysts are currently forecasting that revenue will grow by 110% this year, and by around 80% next year, some readers may argue that a 40% growth rate estimate for 2023-2026 is too conservative. But the major unknowns and uncertainties around competitive pressures, government policies, etc., mean that I think that projecting a higher growth rate for many years in advance might be too optimistic.\nWhat might a $34 billion top line mean for NIO's stock price? Right now, shares are valued at 11.6x this year's expected sales, which is almost perfectly in line with the valuation of XPeng (XPEV), and slightly lower than that of Tesla:\nData by YCharts\nLooking at 2022, we see that shares are valued at around 7x expected revenues right now, whereas XPeng and Tesla trade at 6x and 9x their expected revenues right now. I highly doubt that the average EV company will be trading at high single-digit or even double-digit sales multiples in 2026, as this is just too much of a difference versus the 0.5-2x revenue multiples that legacy auto companies usually trade at. But when we assume that NIO, as an EV pure-play, will still trade at a premium to legacy auto in the middle of the 2020s, a 3x or 4x sales multiple might be a realistic estimate.\nWhen we go with 3.5x our revenue forecast for 2026, that would equate to a market capitalization of 119 billion - about 90% more than NIO's current market capitalization. NIO's share count has not been constant, however, and has, in fact, been rising considerably in the past. When we assume that the share count will rise by another 20% through 2026, to 1.9 billion, then shares would trade at $61 in 2026. This would mean that shares have an upside potential of around 55% over the next five years, or about 9% annually.\nThat is not at all unattractive, but it also isn't an absolutely outstanding return. On top of that, NIO, like many other EV startups, is a company with above-average volatility, above-average risks, and above-average uncertainties. I thus would not call NIO overly attractive at current prices, as the forecasted return is solid, but goes hand in hand with considerable risks/uncertainties. One can, of course, argue that the forecasted growth is too high, or too low, or that the target sales multiple should be different in 2026. As a base case scenario, I feel like this is reasonable, however.\nIs NIO Stock A Buy Now?\nIn retrospect, it is pretty clear that NIO at $10 about a year ago was a great opportunity, and that buying NIO at $67 at the peak earlier this year was a pretty bad decision. NIO today, in the high $30s, is somewhere in between these two extremes. I believe that, for long-term investors, NIO has a good chance of delivering solid returns over the years. At the same time, however, a lot of growth is priced into the stock right now, and it is not possible to forecast what competitors will do over the coming years, how accommodating governments will be to EVs, how well the rollout in Europe and other international markets will go, etc.\nI think NIO is more attractive than many other EV companies today, including many of the EV startups that don't have any viable products yet, and also versus Tesla (which is growing slower and still trades at a higher valuation). I would not be surprised to see NIO's stock deliver solid returns during the 2020s. I don't think that NIO is an absolute no-brainer buy today, however, as NIO still trades at a quite high valuation, for now, even factoring in its strong growth.\nFor those that are enterprising and do not mind the risks and uncertainties around future product launches and international expansion, the stock's volatility, and so on, NIO could be a buy today. But it is not a good choice for everyone, and some may want to watch the EV race from the sidelines instead of putting money at risk at current valuations.\nThe current analyst consensus share price target is $59, but I personally do not think this is realistic in the very near term. Based on expected revenues for 2021, this would put NIO at an 18x sales multiple, which is, I believe, not justified. 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