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2021-07-30

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AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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2021-08-12

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Palantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.<blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote>

2021-09-28

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2021-08-30

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2021-08-24

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Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-07-08

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Auto Giant Looks To Catch Up To GM, Tesla On EVs With $35.5 Billion Move<blockquote>汽车巨头希望斥资355亿美元在电动汽车领域赶上通用汽车和特斯拉</blockquote>

2021-09-27

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EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨</blockquote>

2021-09-13

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Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>热门中概股早盘跳水</blockquote>

2021-11-03

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2021-09-27

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Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>

2021-07-17

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2021-06-26

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2021-12-08

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DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>

2021-11-05

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-10-15

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4 Unstoppable Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的4只不可阻挡的股票</blockquote>

2021-07-07

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2021-06-17

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2021-12-30

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Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>

2021-12-22

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,"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692721601","repostId":"1117854838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117854838","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641220222,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117854838?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-03 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117854838","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.The Dow Jones Indu","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股市周一小幅高开，开启2022年首次交易。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨60点，涨幅约0.1%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&amp;P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行周一指出，随着投资者希望投入新资金，股市在新年伊始往往会上涨。该公司发现，在过去13年中，有11年标普500在日历年第一周上涨，平均涨幅约为1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周一帮助市场产生了一些早期动力，该电动汽车公司公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆，超出预期，股价上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>除特斯拉外，大型汽车制造商的股价也上涨，福特汽车和通用汽车各上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的股票也推高了。由于投资者摆脱了对延续至周一的假日航班取消的担忧，航空公司小幅走高。联合航空上涨1%，阿拉斯加航空上涨2.3%。与此同时，拉斯维加斯金沙集团和永利度假村等赌场股各上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&amp;P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&amp;P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些举措是在上周市场结束强劲的2021年之后出台的。标准普尔500指数今年上涨了近27%，纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯指数也取得了丰厚的回报。周五股市小幅下跌，但标普500和道琼斯指数在今年最后一周表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.</p><p><blockquote>新年伊始，围绕新冠肺炎疫情的持续不确定性。奥密克戎变种的兴起导致假期期间数千个航班取消，并导致一些企业和学校考虑暂时关闭。此外，华尔街几家主要银行已要求员工在1月份的前几周在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC&#39;s &#34;This Week&#34; on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.</p><p><blockquote>传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周日告诉美国广播公司的“本周”节目，美国卫生官员可能很快会更新指南，纳入检测建议，以发出信号，表明此前新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人何时可以离开隔离。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>通胀和货币政策预计也将成为2022年的关键主题，因为投资者预计美联储将在未来一年多次加息，以帮助消费者冷却物价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“就像整体经济一样，2022年的市场故事将是恢复正常。随着招聘的继续，支出的增长，以及企业招聘和投资，经济将恢复正常。政府正在根据同样的预期使政策正常化。当你看宏观形势时，首要主题是2022年将使我们恢复正常，”联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米兰周五在给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p>The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一周将是经济数据繁忙的一周，关键的12月份就业报告定于周五上午发布。周一，投资者将获得制造业活动和建筑支出的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022<blockquote>美国股市周一小幅高开开启2022年首笔交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-03 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>美国股市周一小幅高开，开启2022年首次交易。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨60点，涨幅约0.1%。标普500上涨0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&amp;P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行周一指出，随着投资者希望投入新资金，股市在新年伊始往往会上涨。该公司发现，在过去13年中，有11年标普500在日历年第一周上涨，平均涨幅约为1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周一帮助市场产生了一些早期动力，该电动汽车公司公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆，超出预期，股价上涨6.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>除特斯拉外，大型汽车制造商的股价也上涨，福特汽车和通用汽车各上涨1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.</p><p><blockquote>重新开放的股票也推高了。由于投资者摆脱了对延续至周一的假日航班取消的担忧，航空公司小幅走高。联合航空上涨1%，阿拉斯加航空上涨2.3%。与此同时，拉斯维加斯金沙集团和永利度假村等赌场股各上涨约1%。</blockquote></p><p>The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&amp;P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&amp;P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些举措是在上周市场结束强劲的2021年之后出台的。标准普尔500指数今年上涨了近27%，纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯指数也取得了丰厚的回报。周五股市小幅下跌，但标普500和道琼斯指数在今年最后一周表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.</p><p><blockquote>新年伊始，围绕新冠肺炎疫情的持续不确定性。奥密克戎变种的兴起导致假期期间数千个航班取消，并导致一些企业和学校考虑暂时关闭。此外，华尔街几家主要银行已要求员工在1月份的前几周在家工作。</blockquote></p><p>Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC&#39;s &#34;This Week&#34; on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.</p><p><blockquote>传染病专家安东尼·福奇博士周日告诉美国广播公司的“本周”节目，美国卫生官员可能很快会更新指南，纳入检测建议，以发出信号，表明此前新冠病毒检测呈阳性的人何时可以离开隔离。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.</p><p><blockquote>通胀和货币政策预计也将成为2022年的关键主题，因为投资者预计美联储将在未来一年多次加息，以帮助消费者冷却物价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“就像整体经济一样，2022年的市场故事将是恢复正常。随着招聘的继续，支出的增长，以及企业招聘和投资，经济将恢复正常。政府正在根据同样的预期使政策正常化。当你看宏观形势时，首要主题是2022年将使我们恢复正常，”联邦金融网络首席投资官布拉德·麦克米兰周五在给客户的一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p>The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.</p><p><blockquote>今年第一周将是经济数据繁忙的一周，关键的12月份就业报告定于周五上午发布。周一，投资者将获得制造业活动和建筑支出的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117854838","content_text":"U.S. stock market opens modestly higher on Monday to kick off first trade in 2022.The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 60 points, or about 0.1%. The S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced about 0.8%.Stocks have a tendency to gain in the start of a new year as investors look to put new money to work, Bank of America noted on Monday. The S&P 500 was up in the first week of the calendar year in 11 of the last 13 years, with an average gain of about 1.6%, the firm found.Tesla helped the market generate some early momentum Monday, rising 6.8% after theelectric vehicle company reported 308,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter, beating expectations.Along with Tesla, big automakers also saw their shares climb, with Ford Motor and General Motors each rising1.6%.Reopening stocks also pushed higher. Airlines edged higher as investors shrugged off concerns about holiday flight cancelations that have extended into Monday. United Airlines gained 1% and Alaska Air rose 2.3%. Meanwhile, casino stocks including Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts gained about 1% apiece.The moves come after markets closed out a strong 2021 last week. TheS&P 500 rose nearly 27% for the year, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow also posting large returns. Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&P 500 and Dow were positive for the final week of the year.The new year starts with continued uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. The rise of the omicron variant helped lead to the thousands of flight cancellations during the holiday season and has led some businesses and schools to consider temporary closures. Also, several major Wall Street banks have asked employees to work from home for the first few weeks of January.Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC's \"This Week\" on Sunday that U.S. health officials may soon update guidelines to include a testing recommendation to signal when a person who previously tested positive for Covid can leave isolation.Inflation and monetary policy are also expected to be key themes for 2022, as investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates multiple times in the coming year to help cool the rise in prices for consumers.“Just as for the economy as a whole, the market story for 2022 will be a return to normal. As hiring continues, spending grows, and businesses hire and invest, the economy will be normal. The government is normalizing policy on the same expectations. When you look at the macro picture, the overarching theme is 2022 will bring us back to something like normal,” Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in a note to clients on Friday.The first week of the year will be a busy one for economic data, with the key December jobs report slated for a Friday morning release. On Monday, investors will get updated looks at manufacturing activity and construction spending.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692123799,"gmtCreate":1640877952218,"gmtModify":1640877979580,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692123799","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696235672,"gmtCreate":1640700782461,"gmtModify":1640700962424,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696235672","repostId":"2194480705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696320308,"gmtCreate":1640620462229,"gmtModify":1640620498401,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696320308","repostId":"1103486686","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103486686","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640616531,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103486686?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Novavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘下跌8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103486686","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Novavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading.The stock fell 3.3% in the previous trading day.","content":"<p>Novavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading.The stock fell 3.3% in the previous trading day.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax股价早盘下跌8%。该股前一交易日下跌3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6627c5ec391aa02c9ec15dfc36c8f87\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNovavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading<blockquote>Novavax股价早盘下跌8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-27 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Novavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading.The stock fell 3.3% in the previous trading day.</p><p><blockquote>Novavax股价早盘下跌8%。该股前一交易日下跌3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6627c5ec391aa02c9ec15dfc36c8f87\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103486686","content_text":"Novavax shares dropped 8% in morning trading.The stock fell 3.3% in the previous trading day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691792355,"gmtCreate":1640239147889,"gmtModify":1640239148156,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691792355","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨34%，大幅跑赢纳斯达克100指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股存在泡沫，因为其价格正在迅速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上慢于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将对苹果提出看涨论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL)股票在2021年表现稳健。该指数今年上涨了35%，表现强劲，优于纳斯达克100指数和标普500。苹果的2021年业绩是该公司长期获胜的最新一年，它表明股票永远不会太大而无法击败市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的胜利应该得到修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称AAPL被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是泡沫。”</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个即将破裂的泡沫。”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“出售AAPL？为什么这位专家认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都明确悲观。一些人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总体而言，认为苹果是泡沫，或者至少被高估的情绪正在变得普遍。如果你看看TipRanks的情绪图表，就会发现对苹果股票的情绪明显负面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks情绪图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的悲观情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（FB）。Meta是一家因违反反垄断法而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分几乎完美。因此，没有什么特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只拥有宽护城河的股票，是少数几家同时控制大多数用户硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的策略，但很少有人成功。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，足以支付高价购买苹果的产品。很少有其他科技公司拥有这样的优势——<b>任天堂</b>(OTCPK：NTDOY)如果您将游戏视为技术，则是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只拥有宽阔护城河的股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果“垄断”了某一套软件体验。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，它是全球第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍然具有显着盈利和增长的潜力。因此，我将在本文中对苹果提出看涨论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的一点是它的竞争地位。该公司在如此广泛的不同市场开展业务，以至于很难确定其业务不仅仅是“技术”。从技术上讲，该公司的SIC代码（行业分类）是7372，表示“预打包软件”。然而，这并没有涵盖苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得注意的一些竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG)-智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的竞争对手的全面名单是不可能的，因为该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务。除了上述所有名称之外，苹果可以说还在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售采用苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，使其与数十家公司展开默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据Counterpoint Research和Statista的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国占47%，全球占14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量方面落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑方面领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它可能会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才涉足智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以50%的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，值得探索苹果最有前途的两个类别：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在实际上是M1家族芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的新型芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一个8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16 GB内存（物理内置在芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。除此之外，还有两款新型号——M1 Pro和M1 Max——对基本型号进行了改进。列出这些高端型号的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的统计数据是M1 Max的570亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的MAC电脑本身可以作为游戏装备。苹果在笔记本电脑和台式机领域已经拥有相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说是难以捉摸的。因此，苹果电脑产品线的加速增长潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，为25%，而后者为30%。然而，服务是有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，它们也可以继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，期望苹果的硬件销售像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，苹果可以在硬件销售不佳的情况下保持总收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以转向苹果的财务状况。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均未达到预期；然而，从绝对值来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果交付了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收830亿美元，增长29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为1.24美元，增长69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告了1040亿美元的TTM运营现金。这比去年增长了28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。按市值计算，苹果是世界上最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均以成长型股票的水平增长。这一个季度并非侥幸。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，苹果上述指标的五年复合年增长率为：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>营业收入：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这也是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这就抓住了本文论点的核心：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。其估值相当高，市盈率为30倍，销售额为7.7倍，现金流为26倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利以22%的速度增长，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去12个月的PEG比率仅为0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超盈利公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家主要的硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击的影响。本文概述的看涨论点面临的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司大幅削减了iPhone产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个始终存在的威胁，该公司依靠现成的原材料供应来保持销售流动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某物变得越大，需要的增幅就越大，才能推动与过去持平的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小工具，第一年就卖出了一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小工具，你的销售额就会翻倍。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额为3320亿美元，你需要客户在第十一年拿出6640亿美元来实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。碰巧的是，苹果第四季度830亿美元的年收入达到了3320亿美元。因此，未来将更难实现增长。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求它保持在技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出了明显优于iPhone的产品，这可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，为了<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机制造商。科技行业的历史上充斥着公司互相吃午餐的情况，尽管苹果在研发上投入了数十亿美元，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险是非常真实的，在几份季度报告中都被认为是一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、良好的增长和并非不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只值得做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们应该仍然不错。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691637739,"gmtCreate":1640182118314,"gmtModify":1640182330297,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691637739","repostId":"1145487385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699540603,"gmtCreate":1639858352973,"gmtModify":1639858353266,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699540603","repostId":"2192754259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699135817,"gmtCreate":1639754749210,"gmtModify":1639754749491,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699135817","repostId":"2192783759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690231065,"gmtCreate":1639668305226,"gmtModify":1639668324572,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690231065","repostId":"1181686014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181686014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639666432,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181686014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181686014","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Mode","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;though&nbsp;New York police&nbsp;would&nbsp;buy&nbsp;up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88f381fe4239d26d1254d4f4745b1f0\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%。纽约市警察局正在考虑从特斯拉购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，这将使这些高性能汽车能够交付给美国最大的警察部队。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars<blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading&nbsp;though&nbsp;New York police&nbsp;would&nbsp;buy&nbsp;up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a88f381fe4239d26d1254d4f4745b1f0\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"568\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United States.</p><p><blockquote>尽管纽约警方将购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，但特斯拉早盘下跌近1%。纽约市警察局正在考虑从特斯拉购买多达250辆全电动Model 3汽车，这将使这些高性能汽车能够交付给美国最大的警察部队。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181686014","content_text":"Tesla fell nearly 1% in morning trading though New York police would buy up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars.The New York City Police Department is considering buying up to 250 all-electric Model 3 cars from Tesla, which will enable these high-performance cars to be delivered to the largest police force in the United States.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607999751,"gmtCreate":1639468810408,"gmtModify":1639468810665,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607999751","repostId":"1186687745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186687745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639445704,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186687745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186687745","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve i","content":"<p>Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve is removing support from markets and the economy. History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.</p><p><blockquote>由于美联储取消对市场和经济支持的消息，股市似乎即将度过一段困难时期。历史告诉我们，持续的反弹可能很快就会开始。</blockquote></p><p> As of Dec. 1, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it&nbsp;slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月1日，标普500指数已较11月18日触及的历史高点下跌4.1%，周五仅反弹4.4%至收盘新高4712.02点。周一，该股回落，跌幅为0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.</p><p><blockquote>波动的核心是美联储通过放弃2020年疫情肆虐经济时采取的积极促进增长的努力来对抗通胀。美联储不仅已经将每月债券购买量减少了数百亿美元，而且主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，还将进一步削减债券购买量。几个月内，美联储将购买零美元的美国国债，而就在11月份，美联储每月购买650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会拖累债券价格下跌，提高收益率，并使家庭和企业更难借到钱。这不仅可能减缓经济增长，还意味着流经金融市场的资金将减少，从而导致可用于竞标股票和其他风险资产的资本减少。而一旦美联储结束了债券购买计划，就会将注意力转向提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> But it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”</p><p><blockquote>但越来越多的人认为股市已经考虑到了这些走势。花旗集团（Citigroup）交易所交易基金研究全球主管斯科特·克罗纳特（Scott Chronert）周五在一份研究报告中写道：“一旦今年春天供应链影响变得更加明显，并且通胀比较开始加速，市场就开始低估美联储最终的紧缩政策。”“在美联储鹰派改变之前卖出不确定性通常会导致在不确定性缓解时买入。”</blockquote></p><p> Buying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&amp;P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于市场在过去四个加息周期中的行为，购买活动可能会在未来几个月内回升。瑞士信贷的数据显示，从首次加息前一年到加息后六个月，标普500的平均涨幅接近15%。从同一起点到首次加息后12个月，平均涨幅为18%。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着投资者应该盲目地将资金投入股市：未来可能会出现更大的波动。瑞士信贷表示，在首次加息前的几个月，市场通常只会小幅上涨。在这几个月里，投资者往往仍在评估收紧货币政策可能对经济造成的损害。</blockquote></p><p> That’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>今天尤其如此。债券市场已经反映出美联储可能会犯一个错误，加息太多次、太快，突然扼杀经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.</p><p><blockquote>美联储不习惯试图平息通胀。自2008-2009年金融危机时代以来的整个时代——当然还有大流行肆虐的2020年——美联储都试图通过实施宽松的货币政策来推高通胀。现在，它正试图压低通胀，投资者正在问自己，这样做是否会损害经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> But one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>但有一件事似乎是一个可靠的赌注。股市的波涛汹涌可能是暂时的：如果美联储不过于激进地收紧政策，牛市可能会继续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stocks' Next Rally Could Be Coming Soon<blockquote>为什么股市的下一次反弹可能很快就会到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 09:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve is removing support from markets and the economy. History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.</p><p><blockquote>由于美联储取消对市场和经济支持的消息，股市似乎即将度过一段困难时期。历史告诉我们，持续的反弹可能很快就会开始。</blockquote></p><p> As of Dec. 1, the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it&nbsp;slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月1日，标普500指数已较11月18日触及的历史高点下跌4.1%，周五仅反弹4.4%至收盘新高4712.02点。周一，该股回落，跌幅为0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> The volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.</p><p><blockquote>波动的核心是美联储通过放弃2020年疫情肆虐经济时采取的积极促进增长的努力来对抗通胀。美联储不仅已经将每月债券购买量减少了数百亿美元，而且主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，还将进一步削减债券购买量。几个月内，美联储将购买零美元的美国国债，而就在11月份，美联储每月购买650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会拖累债券价格下跌，提高收益率，并使家庭和企业更难借到钱。这不仅可能减缓经济增长，还意味着流经金融市场的资金将减少，从而导致可用于竞标股票和其他风险资产的资本减少。而一旦美联储结束了债券购买计划，就会将注意力转向提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> But it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”</p><p><blockquote>但越来越多的人认为股市已经考虑到了这些走势。花旗集团（Citigroup）交易所交易基金研究全球主管斯科特·克罗纳特（Scott Chronert）周五在一份研究报告中写道：“一旦今年春天供应链影响变得更加明显，并且通胀比较开始加速，市场就开始低估美联储最终的紧缩政策。”“在美联储鹰派改变之前卖出不确定性通常会导致在不确定性缓解时买入。”</blockquote></p><p> Buying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&amp;P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于市场在过去四个加息周期中的行为，购买活动可能会在未来几个月内回升。瑞士信贷的数据显示，从首次加息前一年到加息后六个月，标普500的平均涨幅接近15%。从同一起点到首次加息后12个月，平均涨幅为18%。</blockquote></p><p> That doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着投资者应该盲目地将资金投入股市：未来可能会出现更大的波动。瑞士信贷表示，在首次加息前的几个月，市场通常只会小幅上涨。在这几个月里，投资者往往仍在评估收紧货币政策可能对经济造成的损害。</blockquote></p><p> That’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>今天尤其如此。债券市场已经反映出美联储可能会犯一个错误，加息太多次、太快，突然扼杀经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.</p><p><blockquote>美联储不习惯试图平息通胀。自2008-2009年金融危机时代以来的整个时代——当然还有大流行肆虐的2020年——美联储都试图通过实施宽松的货币政策来推高通胀。现在，它正试图压低通胀，投资者正在问自己，这样做是否会损害经济需求。</blockquote></p><p> But one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.</p><p><blockquote>但有一件事似乎是一个可靠的赌注。股市的波涛汹涌可能是暂时的：如果美联储不过于激进地收紧政策，牛市可能会继续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-fed-tightening-taper-rate-hike-51639430005?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-rally-fed-tightening-taper-rate-hike-51639430005?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186687745","content_text":"Stocks appear to be almost through a difficult stretch brought on by news that the Federal Reserve is removing support from markets and the economy. History tells us that a sustained rally will likely begin soon.\nAs of Dec. 1, the S&P 500 had fallen 4.1% from the record high it reached on Nov. 18, only to rebound 4.4% to a new closing high of 4712.02 on Friday. Monday, it slipped back, with a loss of 0.9%.\nThe volatility centers on the Fed’s effort to fight inflation by moving away from the aggressive efforts to bolster growth it put in place as the pandemic ravaged the economy in 2020. Not only is the central bank already reducing its monthly bond purchases by tens of billions of dollars a month, but Chairman Jerome Powell recently indicated even more cuts are on the way. Within months, the Fed will be buying zero dollars in Treasury bonds, compared with $65 billion a month as recently as November.\nThat could drag bond prices down, lifting their yields and making it more difficult for households and businesses to borrow money. Not only would that likely slow economic growth, but it also would mean less money will be flowing through financial markets, leaving less capital available to bid for stocks and other risky assets. And once the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, it will turn its attention to lifting short-term interest rates.\nBut it is increasingly looking like the stock market has already factored in those moves. “The market began to discount eventual Fed tightening once supply chain effects became clearer this past spring, and as inflation compares began to accelerate,” Scott Chronert, global head of exchange-traded fund research at Citigroup, wrote in a research note Friday. “Selling the uncertainty ahead of a hawkish Fed change can often lead to buying on the alleviation of that uncertainty.”\nBuying activity will probably pick up within the next few months, given the market’s behavior in the past four cycles of interest-rate increases. Gains in the S&P 500 from a year before an initial rate boost to six months afterward have averaged almost 15%, according to Credit Suisse data. From the same starting point to 12 months after an initial rate increase, the average gain is 18%.\nThat doesn’t mean investors should blindly pour money into stocks: More volatility could be ahead. In the few months ahead of an initial rate increase, the market usually rises only minimally, according to Credit Suisse. Those few months are a time when investors tend to still be assessing the damage that tighter monetary policy could inflict on the economy.\nThat’s especially true today. The bond market is already reflecting that the Fed could make a mistake, raising rates too many times, too quickly, abruptly choking off economic growth.\nThe Fed isn’t used to trying to quell inflation. For the entire era since the 2008-2009 financial crisis era—and certainly during the pandemic-ravaged 2020—the Fed was trying to bring inflation higher by implementing loose monetary policy. Now, it is trying to keep inflation down, and investors are asking themselves whether it will damage economic demand in doing so.\nBut one thing does seem like a solid bet. The rough waters in stocks are likely to be fairly temporary: The bull market can probably keep on chugging along—if the Fed doesn’t tighten policy too aggressively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602379481,"gmtCreate":1638976775867,"gmtModify":1638976776148,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602379481","repostId":"1149846873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149846873","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638975974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149846873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149846873","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock foll","content":"<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 23:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149846873","content_text":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603276172,"gmtCreate":1638419525102,"gmtModify":1638419525477,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603276172","repostId":"1196358645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609285730,"gmtCreate":1638286147783,"gmtModify":1638286147943,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609285730","repostId":"1190156196","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190156196","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638242388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190156196?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Vaccine Stocks to Watch as New Covid-19 Variant Strikes the Market<blockquote>随着新的Covid-19变种袭击市场，值得关注的5只疫苗股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190156196","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Here are the stocks to watch as the omicron variant gives rise to a new vaccine race","content":"<p><div> Here are the stocks to watch as the omicron variant gives rise to a new vaccine race Source: Shutterstock As Black Friday approached, most investors were speculating on what the supply chain crisis ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着奥密克戎变种引发新的疫苗竞赛，以下是值得关注的股票来源：Shutterstock随着黑色星期五的临近，大多数投资者都在猜测供应链危机……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Vaccine Stocks to Watch as New Covid-19 Variant Strikes the Market<blockquote>随着新的Covid-19变种袭击市场，值得关注的5只疫苗股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Vaccine Stocks to Watch as New Covid-19 Variant Strikes the Market<blockquote>随着新的Covid-19变种袭击市场，值得关注的5只疫苗股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Here are the stocks to watch as the omicron variant gives rise to a new vaccine race Source: Shutterstock As Black Friday approached, most investors were speculating on what the supply chain crisis ...</p><p><blockquote><div>随着奥密克戎变种引发新的疫苗竞赛，以下是值得关注的股票来源：Shutterstock随着黑色星期五的临近，大多数投资者都在猜测供应链危机……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","JNJ":"强生","PFE":"辉瑞","BNTX":"BioNTech SE"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/11/5-vaccine-stocks-to-watch-as-new-covid-19-variant-strikes-the-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190156196","content_text":"Here are the stocks to watch as the omicron variant gives rise to a new vaccine race\nSource: Shutterstock\nAs Black Friday approached, most investors were speculating on what the supply chain crisis would mean for the year’s biggest shopping holiday. By the time shopping began, though, most minds were on another news story. A new Covid-19 variant had been detected in South Africa and it was quickly spreading to Europe. Labeled the omicron variant, this new Covid-19 strain poses a threat to the pandemic recovery story. Perhaps most importantly, we don’t yet know how big that threat is. Scientists haveindicatedthat it will take at least a few weeks for them to assess the effectiveness of vaccines against the new variant, which features multiple mutations. As investors ponder what this means for markets, focus has shifted to one specific question: What does this mean for vaccine stocks?\nInvestors have expressed concern at what the the emergence of a new variant may mean for markets. It bears noting, though, that such a scenario creates a new opportunity for vaccine stocks, specifically for a new company to pull into the lead.\nWhile Pfizer’s(NYSE:PFE) success in producing a vaccine approved for children has helped it maintain a lead over its competitors, other companies recognize the need for further innovation within the vaccine space. Scientists and researchers have yet to reach a conclusion as to how the new variant will react to current vaccines, but the companies producing them are already working around the clock.\nMany vaccine stocks were trending this morning as the omicron variant dominated news coverage. Let’s take a look at what the most prominent vaccine producers are saying and when we can expect to see progress.\n\nModerna(NASDAQ:MRNA)\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE)\nBioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX)\nJohnson & Johnson(NYSE:JNJ)\nNovavax(NASDAQ:NVAX)\n\nModerna (MRNA)\nModerna was one of the first companies to have its executive team discuss address the omicron variant.\nOn Sunday, CMO Paul Burton spoke toBBC’sAndrew Marr and said Moderna was hoping to see clinical trials of an omicron-specific booster begin within60 to 90 days. CEO Stephane Bancel recentlyspoketoCNBC’s“Squawk Box” on the topic of an omicron- targeting vaccine. While he stated that it will likely take months for the company to develop, produce and ship a vaccine with the ability to target that specific variant, he noted that a booster shot containing a higher 100-microgram dose could be made available much sooner.\nBancel also floated the possibility of administering higher doses of the current vaccines to particularly high-risk patients, such as those in the elderly or immunocompromised categories.\nThis talk of an effective booster that could take on the new variant has sent MRNA stock shooting up today. As of this writing, vaccine stocks are having a good day and Moderna has risen by more than 10%. Today’s gains have put it up by more than 30% for the past five days.\nWhile the head of drugmaker Moderna said COVID-19 vaccines are unlikely to be as effective against the Omicron variant of the coronavirus as they have been previously, sparking fresh worry in financial markets about the trajectory of the pandemic.\n\"There is no world, I think, where (the effectiveness) is the same level . . . we had with Delta,\" Moderna Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel told the Financial Times in an interview.\n\"I think it's going to be a material drop. I just don't know how much because we need to wait for the data. But all the scientists I've talked to . . . are like 'this is not going to be good.'\"\nPfizer (PFE)\nNo pharmaceutical company has received as much positive press for its vaccine innovations as Pfizer. Earlier this month, CEO Albert Bourla wasrecommended by one InvestorPlace contributorfor CEO of the year.\nThe industry leader alsodiscussedthe new variant earlier today, stating that he believed that Pfizer’s Covid-19 pill would prove effective against it. He noted that the treatment method was designed with the thought process that most virus mutations were coming in spikes, exactly what we are seeing so far from the omicron variant. This gives him, he said, a “very high level of confidence” that the oral treatment, Paxlovid, will prove well-suited to help patients with the new Covid-19 strain.\nClinical trials have found that when Paxlovid is taken with HIV drug ritonavir, it reduces hospitalization and death by 89% if taken within three days after symptoms have begun.\nWhile Bourla is still not able to offer much on the effectiveness of the company’s two-dose vaccine against the new variant, he experts it to offer at least some protection. He also said that Pfizer is already at work on a new vaccine and that it produced a DNA template on Friday, speculating that it could be ready within 100 days.\nIt is worth noting that Pfizer has been able to create vaccines for previous variants in that timeframe but did not end up having to administer them, as the previously distributed vaccines remained effective.\nBioNTech (BNTX)\nPfizer’s original vaccine partner isn’t missing a beat, either.\nThe German biotech innovatortoldBusiness Insiderthat it is already at work on the development of an adapted vaccine to combat the omicron variant. According to the company’s spokespeople, the first steps of such a process “overlap with the research necessary” to evaluate the necessity of a new shot. This approach should enable its research team to move forward as quickly as possible.\nLike its competitors, BioNTech expects to acquire the data necessary to determine next steps in roughly two weeks, as medical researchers rush to examine new cases. In an attempt to keep the process as efficient as possible, the company is already testing its existing vaccine doses. Like Pfizer, it claims that it will be able to ship out this adapted vaccine within 100 days should it prove necessary.\nLike other vaccine stocks, BNTX is having a good day as speculation regarding the vaccine mounts. Shares are up almost 4% as of this writing. Not unlike its competitor Moderna, BioNTech is up almost 20% for the week after seeing a period of mostly flatlining. Earlier this Summer,InvestorPlace analyst Louis Navelliercalledit a better buy among vaccine stocks than Pfizer.\nJohnson & Johnson (JNJ)\nLike its competitors, Johnson & Johnson is already at work on ways to combat the new variant. Still waiting on further data, though, the company hasstatedit “will progress [its new vaccine] into clinical studies if needed.”\nMathai Mammen, global head of research and development at J&J subsidiary Janssen Pharmaceuticals, says that the company remains confident in the “robust humoral and cell-mediated responses” that its original vaccine has elicited in patients to date, giving the company confidence in its ability to adapt its current vaccine to handle the omicron variant.\nMammen added that the company has already begun work on a new vaccine for exactly that purpose and will “rapidly progress into clinical trails” if it is deemed necessary. It has beenreportedthat testing has already begun.\nNovavax (NVAX)\nA later player to the vaccine race, Novavax hasn’t had the same success in the U.S. as Pfizer or Moderna.\nHowever, the company recognizes it has a chance to make up the lost ground. In fact, it is already working to develop a vaccine to combat the omicron variant. Novavax hasstatedthat its vaccine will contain the mutated spikes that have experts worried about the variant, thereby enabling recipients to develop necessary immune responses. Its spokespeople have also stated that the testing and developing of the new vaccine will likely take “a few weeks.”\nWhile Novavax has not filed for approval for its initial Covid-19 in the U.S. yet, it received the green light from regulators in both Indonesia and the Philippines.\nAs InvestorPlace Assistant News Writer Eddie Pan reported this morning, NVAX is a name to watch among vaccine stocks as speculation mounts. While no one is likely to know too much for at least two weeks, companies aren’t wasting any time in building on their vaccine innovations in attempt to pull ahead in the vaccine race. Novavax may not have garnered U.S. authorization yet, but it has risen to prominence by way of its global vaccine distribution work, an edge that earned it ahigh rankingamong second-shot vaccine stocks to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"NVAX":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600275440,"gmtCreate":1638165790006,"gmtModify":1638165790134,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600275440","repostId":"1119853738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119853738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638153494,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119853738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 10:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax Are Must-Own Stocks This Week<blockquote>Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax是本周必须持有的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119853738","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The newly emerged omicron coronavirus variant sent shockwaves through U.S. stock markets last Friday","content":"<p>The newly emerged omicron coronavirus variant sent shockwaves through U.S. stock markets last Friday. Omicron has the world on edge because of its unique combination of mutations that might significantly reduce the effectiveness of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>上周五，新出现的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种震惊了美国股市。奥密克戎让世界感到紧张，因为其独特的突变组合可能会显着降低第一代COVID-19疫苗的有效性。</blockquote></p><p> While there simply isn't enough data to draw any firm conclusions about the seriousness of the omicron variant yet, politicians across the world were quick to react by imposing travel bans and restrictions on several African nations over the weekend. These rapid-fire travel restrictions make it abundantly clear that the global pandemic -- and its effects on the world economy -- are far from over.</p><p><blockquote>虽然还没有足够的数据对奥密克戎变种的严重性得出任何明确的结论，但世界各地的政界人士很快做出反应，周末对几个非洲国家实施了旅行禁令和限制。这些快速的旅行限制非常清楚地表明，全球疫情及其对世界经济的影响远未结束。</blockquote></p><p> How should investors protect their portfolios from this latest threat to global supply chains, international travel, and public health? The answer appears to be simple enough: vaccine stocks. On Black Friday, shares of the top COVID-19 vaccine developers&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>(NASDAQ:MRNA),<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE), and&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX)&nbsp;all&nbsp;vaulted higher. Here's why these threebiopharmaceutical stocksought to continue to their march northward next week and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该如何保护他们的投资组合免受全球供应链、国际旅行和公共卫生的最新威胁？答案似乎很简单：疫苗库存。黑色星期五，顶级COVID-19疫苗开发商的股票<b>现代</b>（纳斯达克：MRNA），<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），以及<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX）全部走高。这就是为什么这三只生物制药股寻求在下周及以后继续北上。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic's latest twist makes these three stocks screaming buys</p><p><blockquote>疫情的最新转折让这三只股票尖叫买入</blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax all enjoyed a sizable jump in their share prices during the holiday-shortened trading session on Friday thanks to their quick reaction to the omicron variant. Specifically, Moderna announced that it is working on an omicron-specific vaccine, as well a unique booster shot regimen, based on its currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine, that may provide a higher level of immune protection against this new variant.</p><p><blockquote>由于对奥密克戎变种的快速反应，Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax的股价在周五假期缩短的交易时段均大幅上涨。具体来说，Moderna宣布，它正在研究一种奥密克戎特异性疫苗，以及一种基于其目前授权的COVID-19疫苗的独特加强注射方案，这可能会针对这种新变种提供更高水平的免疫保护。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer, for its part, said that its&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>-partnered COVID-19 vaccine can easily be tailored to the omicron variant and be ready for use within 100-days -- that is, if the original version of its vaccine fails to provide adequate protection. Novavax also provided an update on its omicron vaccine strategy last Friday, with the biotech saying that it plans on having an omicron-specific shot ready for testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞则表示，其<b>BioNTech</b>-合作的COVID-19疫苗可以很容易地适应奥密克戎变种，并在100天内准备好使用——也就是说，如果其疫苗的原始版本无法提供足够的保护。Novavax上周五还提供了其奥密克戎疫苗战略的最新情况，该生物技术公司表示，计划在未来几周内准备好一种针对奥密克戎的疫苗进行测试和生产。</blockquote></p><p> Why are these omicron-tailored vaccines a huge positive for their developers? The messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech both appeared to be on the back end of the commercial shelf lives prior to this news. As a result, Moderna's stock was in the midst of notable downward trend earlier this month. The sudden need for more potent booster shots and a potential variant-specific vaccine should keep Moderna's top line headed in the right direction in 2022, which ought to light a fire underneath the biotech's shares for the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些奥密克戎定制的疫苗对其开发者来说是一个巨大的积极因素？在这一消息发布之前，Moderna和辉瑞/BioNTech的信使RNA(mRNA)疫苗似乎都处于商业保质期的后端。因此，Moderna的股价本月早些时候出现了明显的下跌趋势。对更有效的加强注射和潜在的变异特异性疫苗的突然需求应该会使Moderna的营收在2022年朝着正确的方向发展，这应该会在今年剩余时间里点燃该生物技术公司的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer's equity hasn't skipped a beat of late because of its oral coronavirus pill, the pharma giant now stands to possibly benefit from another year of exceptionally strong COVID-19 vaccine sales. Pfizer's stock, in turn, will probably continue to print ever-increasing record highs heading into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的股价最近并没有因为其口服冠状病毒药物而下跌，但这家制药巨头现在可能会受益于又一年异常强劲的COVID-19疫苗销售。反过来，辉瑞的股价可能会在2022年继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> On the Novavax side of ledger, the biotech's shares are currently down by a whopping 31% from their 52-week highs. The vaccine specialist's shares have&nbsp;dipped in the back half of 2021&nbsp;in response to manufacturing issues, regulatory delays, and a growing concern among investors that the company may have simply missed the boat.</p><p><blockquote>在ledger的Novavax方面，该生物技术公司的股价目前较52周高点下跌了31%。由于制造问题、监管延误以及投资者越来越担心该公司可能只是错过了机会，这家疫苗专家的股价在2021年下半年下跌。</blockquote></p><p> What's important to understand is that Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine is protein-based, which may appeal to a broad range of folks hesitant about cutting-edge mRNA vaccines. This new variant, therefore, ought to keep this latent demand for Novavax's alternative jab on the high side, as the company slowly completes the regulatory process in the all-important U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要了解Novavax的COVID-19疫苗是基于蛋白质的，这可能会吸引许多对尖端mRNA疫苗犹豫不决的人。因此，随着Novavax在非常重要的美国市场慢慢完成监管程序，这种新变种应该会保持对Novavax替代疫苗的潜在需求偏高。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax are all poised to benefit in a big way from their unique vaccine development capabilities, making their stocks exceedingly strong buys this week.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax都有望从其独特的疫苗开发能力中受益匪浅，这使得它们的股票本周受到了极其强劲的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax Are Must-Own Stocks This Week<blockquote>Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax是本周必须持有的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna, Pfizer, and Novavax Are Must-Own Stocks This Week<blockquote>Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax是本周必须持有的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 10:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The newly emerged omicron coronavirus variant sent shockwaves through U.S. stock markets last Friday. Omicron has the world on edge because of its unique combination of mutations that might significantly reduce the effectiveness of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>上周五，新出现的奥密克戎冠状病毒变种震惊了美国股市。奥密克戎让世界感到紧张，因为其独特的突变组合可能会显着降低第一代COVID-19疫苗的有效性。</blockquote></p><p> While there simply isn't enough data to draw any firm conclusions about the seriousness of the omicron variant yet, politicians across the world were quick to react by imposing travel bans and restrictions on several African nations over the weekend. These rapid-fire travel restrictions make it abundantly clear that the global pandemic -- and its effects on the world economy -- are far from over.</p><p><blockquote>虽然还没有足够的数据对奥密克戎变种的严重性得出任何明确的结论，但世界各地的政界人士很快做出反应，周末对几个非洲国家实施了旅行禁令和限制。这些快速的旅行限制非常清楚地表明，全球疫情及其对世界经济的影响远未结束。</blockquote></p><p> How should investors protect their portfolios from this latest threat to global supply chains, international travel, and public health? The answer appears to be simple enough: vaccine stocks. On Black Friday, shares of the top COVID-19 vaccine developers&nbsp;<b>Moderna</b>(NASDAQ:MRNA),<b>Pfizer</b>(NYSE:PFE), and&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX)&nbsp;all&nbsp;vaulted higher. Here's why these threebiopharmaceutical stocksought to continue to their march northward next week and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该如何保护他们的投资组合免受全球供应链、国际旅行和公共卫生的最新威胁？答案似乎很简单：疫苗库存。黑色星期五，顶级COVID-19疫苗开发商的股票<b>现代</b>（纳斯达克：MRNA），<b>辉瑞</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PFE），以及<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX）全部走高。这就是为什么这三只生物制药股寻求在下周及以后继续北上。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic's latest twist makes these three stocks screaming buys</p><p><blockquote>疫情的最新转折让这三只股票尖叫买入</blockquote></p><p> Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax all enjoyed a sizable jump in their share prices during the holiday-shortened trading session on Friday thanks to their quick reaction to the omicron variant. Specifically, Moderna announced that it is working on an omicron-specific vaccine, as well a unique booster shot regimen, based on its currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine, that may provide a higher level of immune protection against this new variant.</p><p><blockquote>由于对奥密克戎变种的快速反应，Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax的股价在周五假期缩短的交易时段均大幅上涨。具体来说，Moderna宣布，它正在研究一种奥密克戎特异性疫苗，以及一种基于其目前授权的COVID-19疫苗的独特加强注射方案，这可能会针对这种新变种提供更高水平的免疫保护。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer, for its part, said that its&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>-partnered COVID-19 vaccine can easily be tailored to the omicron variant and be ready for use within 100-days -- that is, if the original version of its vaccine fails to provide adequate protection. Novavax also provided an update on its omicron vaccine strategy last Friday, with the biotech saying that it plans on having an omicron-specific shot ready for testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞则表示，其<b>BioNTech</b>-合作的COVID-19疫苗可以很容易地适应奥密克戎变种，并在100天内准备好使用——也就是说，如果其疫苗的原始版本无法提供足够的保护。Novavax上周五还提供了其奥密克戎疫苗战略的最新情况，该生物技术公司表示，计划在未来几周内准备好一种针对奥密克戎的疫苗进行测试和生产。</blockquote></p><p> Why are these omicron-tailored vaccines a huge positive for their developers? The messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech both appeared to be on the back end of the commercial shelf lives prior to this news. As a result, Moderna's stock was in the midst of notable downward trend earlier this month. The sudden need for more potent booster shots and a potential variant-specific vaccine should keep Moderna's top line headed in the right direction in 2022, which ought to light a fire underneath the biotech's shares for the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些奥密克戎定制的疫苗对其开发者来说是一个巨大的积极因素？在这一消息发布之前，Moderna和辉瑞/BioNTech的信使RNA(mRNA)疫苗似乎都处于商业保质期的后端。因此，Moderna的股价本月早些时候出现了明显的下跌趋势。对更有效的加强注射和潜在的变异特异性疫苗的突然需求应该会使Moderna的营收在2022年朝着正确的方向发展，这应该会在今年剩余时间里点燃该生物技术公司的股价。</blockquote></p><p> While Pfizer's equity hasn't skipped a beat of late because of its oral coronavirus pill, the pharma giant now stands to possibly benefit from another year of exceptionally strong COVID-19 vaccine sales. Pfizer's stock, in turn, will probably continue to print ever-increasing record highs heading into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>虽然辉瑞的股价最近并没有因为其口服冠状病毒药物而下跌，但这家制药巨头现在可能会受益于又一年异常强劲的COVID-19疫苗销售。反过来，辉瑞的股价可能会在2022年继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> On the Novavax side of ledger, the biotech's shares are currently down by a whopping 31% from their 52-week highs. The vaccine specialist's shares have&nbsp;dipped in the back half of 2021&nbsp;in response to manufacturing issues, regulatory delays, and a growing concern among investors that the company may have simply missed the boat.</p><p><blockquote>在ledger的Novavax方面，该生物技术公司的股价目前较52周高点下跌了31%。由于制造问题、监管延误以及投资者越来越担心该公司可能只是错过了机会，这家疫苗专家的股价在2021年下半年下跌。</blockquote></p><p> What's important to understand is that Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine is protein-based, which may appeal to a broad range of folks hesitant about cutting-edge mRNA vaccines. This new variant, therefore, ought to keep this latent demand for Novavax's alternative jab on the high side, as the company slowly completes the regulatory process in the all-important U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要了解Novavax的COVID-19疫苗是基于蛋白质的，这可能会吸引许多对尖端mRNA疫苗犹豫不决的人。因此，随着Novavax在非常重要的美国市场慢慢完成监管程序，这种新变种应该会保持对Novavax替代疫苗的潜在需求偏高。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax are all poised to benefit in a big way from their unique vaccine development capabilities, making their stocks exceedingly strong buys this week.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Moderna、辉瑞和Novavax都有望从其独特的疫苗开发能力中受益匪浅，这使得它们的股票本周受到了极其强劲的买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/moderna-pfizer-and-novavax-are-must-own-stocks-thi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/28/moderna-pfizer-and-novavax-are-must-own-stocks-thi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119853738","content_text":"The newly emerged omicron coronavirus variant sent shockwaves through U.S. stock markets last Friday. Omicron has the world on edge because of its unique combination of mutations that might significantly reduce the effectiveness of first-generation COVID-19 vaccines.\nWhile there simply isn't enough data to draw any firm conclusions about the seriousness of the omicron variant yet, politicians across the world were quick to react by imposing travel bans and restrictions on several African nations over the weekend. These rapid-fire travel restrictions make it abundantly clear that the global pandemic -- and its effects on the world economy -- are far from over.\nHow should investors protect their portfolios from this latest threat to global supply chains, international travel, and public health? The answer appears to be simple enough: vaccine stocks. On Black Friday, shares of the top COVID-19 vaccine developers Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA),Pfizer(NYSE:PFE), and Novavax(NASDAQ:NVAX) all vaulted higher. Here's why these threebiopharmaceutical stocksought to continue to their march northward next week and beyond.\nThe pandemic's latest twist makes these three stocks screaming buys\nModerna, Pfizer, and Novavax all enjoyed a sizable jump in their share prices during the holiday-shortened trading session on Friday thanks to their quick reaction to the omicron variant. Specifically, Moderna announced that it is working on an omicron-specific vaccine, as well a unique booster shot regimen, based on its currently authorized COVID-19 vaccine, that may provide a higher level of immune protection against this new variant.\nPfizer, for its part, said that its BioNTech-partnered COVID-19 vaccine can easily be tailored to the omicron variant and be ready for use within 100-days -- that is, if the original version of its vaccine fails to provide adequate protection. Novavax also provided an update on its omicron vaccine strategy last Friday, with the biotech saying that it plans on having an omicron-specific shot ready for testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks.\nWhy are these omicron-tailored vaccines a huge positive for their developers? The messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech both appeared to be on the back end of the commercial shelf lives prior to this news. As a result, Moderna's stock was in the midst of notable downward trend earlier this month. The sudden need for more potent booster shots and a potential variant-specific vaccine should keep Moderna's top line headed in the right direction in 2022, which ought to light a fire underneath the biotech's shares for the remainder of the year.\nWhile Pfizer's equity hasn't skipped a beat of late because of its oral coronavirus pill, the pharma giant now stands to possibly benefit from another year of exceptionally strong COVID-19 vaccine sales. Pfizer's stock, in turn, will probably continue to print ever-increasing record highs heading into 2022.\nOn the Novavax side of ledger, the biotech's shares are currently down by a whopping 31% from their 52-week highs. The vaccine specialist's shares have dipped in the back half of 2021 in response to manufacturing issues, regulatory delays, and a growing concern among investors that the company may have simply missed the boat.\nWhat's important to understand is that Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine is protein-based, which may appeal to a broad range of folks hesitant about cutting-edge mRNA vaccines. This new variant, therefore, ought to keep this latent demand for Novavax's alternative jab on the high side, as the company slowly completes the regulatory process in the all-important U.S. market.\nIn short, Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax are all poised to benefit in a big way from their unique vaccine development capabilities, making their stocks exceedingly strong buys this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874623640,"gmtCreate":1637767893273,"gmtModify":1637767893396,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874623640","repostId":"2185517963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875425805,"gmtCreate":1637680263044,"gmtModify":1637680263205,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875425805","repostId":"1112277303","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112277303","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637677887,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112277303?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open little changed after Monday’s afternoon slide<blockquote>周一下午下跌后股市开盘变化不大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112277303","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks were mostly lower Tuesday with technology stocks under further pressure, as investors further","content":"<p>Stocks were mostly lower Tuesday with technology stocks under further pressure, as investors further mulled the market implications of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s renomination to lead the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市大多走低，科技股进一步承压，因投资者进一步考虑美联储杰罗姆·鲍威尔重新提名美联储主席对市场的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ticked down. A day earlier, the blue-chip index had set an all-time intraday high before pulling back to end in the red, with a drop in technology stocks weighing.</p><p><blockquote>标普500下降了。一天前，蓝筹股指数创下盘中历史新高，随后回调收红，科技股下跌承压。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) recovered losses and rose after dropping more than 1% earlier in the morning. The move came after theWhite House announced it would be releasing a total of 50 million barrels of oil&nbsp;from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in tandem with similar moves from China, Japan, India and South Korea and the U.K., to try and ease rising energy prices with additional supply.</p><p><blockquote>美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货(CL=F)在早盘下跌逾1%后收复失地上涨。此前，白宫宣布将从战略石油储备（SPR）中释放总计5000万桶石油，中国、日本、印度、韩国和英国也采取了类似举措，试图通过增加供应来缓解能源价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Zoom Video Communication (ZM) slid even after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue growth and full-year guidance, with usage of the video conferencing company’s software slowing amid the reopening. Companies including Nordstrom (JWN), The Gap (GPS) and Autodesk (ADSK) are set to report quarterly results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Zoom Video通信公司(ZM)公布了好于预期的季度收入增长和全年指引，但该公司的股价仍下跌，因为该视频会议公司软件的使用在重新开业期间放缓。Nordstrom(JWN)、Gap(GPS)和Autodesk(ADSK)等公司将于周二公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination to the top leadership position at the central bank captured market attention this week, with many investors reacting favorably to the likelihood that the Fed’spreviously telegraphed monetary policy framework would remain in place&nbsp;with Powell's reappointment. That includes expectations for current asset-purchase tapering to take place through the middle of next year, and for at least one interest rate hike to take place before the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）被重新提名为央行最高领导职位本周引起了市场的关注，许多投资者对美联储此前公布的货币政策框架在鲍威尔连任后可能保持不变做出了积极反应。这包括对当前资产购买缩减将在明年年中进行的预期，以及在2022年底之前至少进行一次加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Continuity at a time of such extraordinary uncertainty is certainly welcome news. We have extraordinary uncertainty because we’re pivoting from the phase of the cycle where the Fed had been shoring up the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, and … it did avoid a meltdown in financial markets,” Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“But now we’ve got very easy financial market conditions and we’re dealing with inflation. And having to pivot to dealing with inflation and tamp it down without derailing the recovery — that’s a very hard thing to pull off. We’ve not seen the Fed actually chase inflation down since the early 1980s.”</p><p><blockquote>均富首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)对雅虎财经直播表示：“在这种异常不确定的时期，保持连续性当然是一个受欢迎的消息。我们面临着异常不确定的局面，因为我们正在从美联储一直在支撑从大流行引发的衰退中复苏的周期阶段转向，而且……它确实避免了金融市场的崩溃。但现在我们的金融市场状况非常轻松，我们正在应对通胀。必须转向应对通胀并在不破坏复苏的情况下抑制通胀——这是一件非常困难的事情。自20世纪80年代初以来，我们还没有看到美联储真正追逐通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> President Joe Biden also nominated Fed Governor Lael Brainard – previously viewed as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair position to replace Powell — as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors for the Fed. With these two nominations in place, market participants have turned their attention to who might fill he three vacant and soon-to-be vacant seats on the Fed Board, which includes the key Vice Chair for Supervision role. Biden said in a press statement Monday morning he expected to announce those appointments “beginning in early December.”</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登还提名美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）担任美联储理事会副主席，此前他被视为接替鲍威尔的美联储主席职位的潜在候选人。随着这两项提名的到位，市场参与者将注意力转向谁可能填补美联储董事会的三个空缺和即将空缺的席位，其中包括负责监管的关键副主席。拜登在周一上午的新闻声明中表示，他预计将“从12月初开始”宣布这些任命。</blockquote></p><p> “Political decisions like this are competitions between affinity — you like someone in your own party — and convenience — what can you get the Senate to do for you, and will markets receive it well? You have to view the Powell-Brainard picks as part … of a bigger package,” Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus-Mellon chief economist and macro strategist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“The White House is going to have three new governors to appoint, and presumably that’s going to tilt more progressive. So bottom-line, six months from now, the group of people that Chair Powell has to wrangle to make decisions is going to be more dovish than it is today.”</p><p><blockquote>“像这样的政治决策是亲和力（你喜欢自己党内的某个人）和便利性之间的竞争——你能让参议院为你做什么，市场会接受吗？你必须将鲍威尔-布雷纳德的选择视为……更大方案的一部分，”德雷福斯-梅隆首席经济学家兼宏观策略师文森特·莱因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)告诉雅虎财经直播。“白宫将任命三位新州长，想必这会更倾向于进步。所以底线是，从现在起六个月后，鲍威尔主席在做出决定时必须与之争吵的一群人将比今天更加鸽派。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open little changed after Monday’s afternoon slide<blockquote>周一下午下跌后股市开盘变化不大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open little changed after Monday’s afternoon slide<blockquote>周一下午下跌后股市开盘变化不大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-23 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks were mostly lower Tuesday with technology stocks under further pressure, as investors further mulled the market implications of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s renomination to lead the central bank.</p><p><blockquote>周二股市大多走低，科技股进一步承压，因投资者进一步考虑美联储杰罗姆·鲍威尔重新提名美联储主席对市场的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 ticked down. A day earlier, the blue-chip index had set an all-time intraday high before pulling back to end in the red, with a drop in technology stocks weighing.</p><p><blockquote>标普500下降了。一天前，蓝筹股指数创下盘中历史新高，随后回调收红，科技股下跌承压。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) recovered losses and rose after dropping more than 1% earlier in the morning. The move came after theWhite House announced it would be releasing a total of 50 million barrels of oil&nbsp;from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in tandem with similar moves from China, Japan, India and South Korea and the U.K., to try and ease rising energy prices with additional supply.</p><p><blockquote>美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货(CL=F)在早盘下跌逾1%后收复失地上涨。此前，白宫宣布将从战略石油储备（SPR）中释放总计5000万桶石油，中国、日本、印度、韩国和英国也采取了类似举措，试图通过增加供应来缓解能源价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Zoom Video Communication (ZM) slid even after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue growth and full-year guidance, with usage of the video conferencing company’s software slowing amid the reopening. Companies including Nordstrom (JWN), The Gap (GPS) and Autodesk (ADSK) are set to report quarterly results on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Zoom Video通信公司(ZM)公布了好于预期的季度收入增长和全年指引，但该公司的股价仍下跌，因为该视频会议公司软件的使用在重新开业期间放缓。Nordstrom(JWN)、Gap(GPS)和Autodesk(ADSK)等公司将于周二公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination to the top leadership position at the central bank captured market attention this week, with many investors reacting favorably to the likelihood that the Fed’spreviously telegraphed monetary policy framework would remain in place&nbsp;with Powell's reappointment. That includes expectations for current asset-purchase tapering to take place through the middle of next year, and for at least one interest rate hike to take place before the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）被重新提名为央行最高领导职位本周引起了市场的关注，许多投资者对美联储此前公布的货币政策框架在鲍威尔连任后可能保持不变做出了积极反应。这包括对当前资产购买缩减将在明年年中进行的预期，以及在2022年底之前至少进行一次加息。</blockquote></p><p> “Continuity at a time of such extraordinary uncertainty is certainly welcome news. We have extraordinary uncertainty because we’re pivoting from the phase of the cycle where the Fed had been shoring up the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, and … it did avoid a meltdown in financial markets,” Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“But now we’ve got very easy financial market conditions and we’re dealing with inflation. And having to pivot to dealing with inflation and tamp it down without derailing the recovery — that’s a very hard thing to pull off. We’ve not seen the Fed actually chase inflation down since the early 1980s.”</p><p><blockquote>均富首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)对雅虎财经直播表示：“在这种异常不确定的时期，保持连续性当然是一个受欢迎的消息。我们面临着异常不确定的局面，因为我们正在从美联储一直在支撑从大流行引发的衰退中复苏的周期阶段转向，而且……它确实避免了金融市场的崩溃。但现在我们的金融市场状况非常轻松，我们正在应对通胀。必须转向应对通胀并在不破坏复苏的情况下抑制通胀——这是一件非常困难的事情。自20世纪80年代初以来，我们还没有看到美联储真正追逐通胀。”</blockquote></p><p> President Joe Biden also nominated Fed Governor Lael Brainard – previously viewed as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair position to replace Powell — as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors for the Fed. With these two nominations in place, market participants have turned their attention to who might fill he three vacant and soon-to-be vacant seats on the Fed Board, which includes the key Vice Chair for Supervision role. Biden said in a press statement Monday morning he expected to announce those appointments “beginning in early December.”</p><p><blockquote>总统乔·拜登还提名美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德（Lael Brainard）担任美联储理事会副主席，此前他被视为接替鲍威尔的美联储主席职位的潜在候选人。随着这两项提名的到位，市场参与者将注意力转向谁可能填补美联储董事会的三个空缺和即将空缺的席位，其中包括负责监管的关键副主席。拜登在周一上午的新闻声明中表示，他预计将“从12月初开始”宣布这些任命。</blockquote></p><p> “Political decisions like this are competitions between affinity — you like someone in your own party — and convenience — what can you get the Senate to do for you, and will markets receive it well? You have to view the Powell-Brainard picks as part … of a bigger package,” Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus-Mellon chief economist and macro strategist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“The White House is going to have three new governors to appoint, and presumably that’s going to tilt more progressive. So bottom-line, six months from now, the group of people that Chair Powell has to wrangle to make decisions is going to be more dovish than it is today.”</p><p><blockquote>“像这样的政治决策是亲和力（你喜欢自己党内的某个人）和便利性之间的竞争——你能让参议院为你做什么，市场会接受吗？你必须将鲍威尔-布雷纳德的选择视为……更大方案的一部分，”德雷福斯-梅隆首席经济学家兼宏观策略师文森特·莱因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)告诉雅虎财经直播。“白宫将任命三位新州长，想必这会更倾向于进步。所以底线是，从现在起六个月后，鲍威尔主席在做出决定时必须与之争吵的一群人将比今天更加鸽派。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112277303","content_text":"Stocks were mostly lower Tuesday with technology stocks under further pressure, as investors further mulled the market implications of Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s renomination to lead the central bank.\nThe S&P 500 ticked down. A day earlier, the blue-chip index had set an all-time intraday high before pulling back to end in the red, with a drop in technology stocks weighing.\nU.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) recovered losses and rose after dropping more than 1% earlier in the morning. The move came after theWhite House announced it would be releasing a total of 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), in tandem with similar moves from China, Japan, India and South Korea and the U.K., to try and ease rising energy prices with additional supply.\nShares of Zoom Video Communication (ZM) slid even after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly revenue growth and full-year guidance, with usage of the video conferencing company’s software slowing amid the reopening. Companies including Nordstrom (JWN), The Gap (GPS) and Autodesk (ADSK) are set to report quarterly results on Tuesday.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s renomination to the top leadership position at the central bank captured market attention this week, with many investors reacting favorably to the likelihood that the Fed’spreviously telegraphed monetary policy framework would remain in place with Powell's reappointment. That includes expectations for current asset-purchase tapering to take place through the middle of next year, and for at least one interest rate hike to take place before the end of 2022.\n“Continuity at a time of such extraordinary uncertainty is certainly welcome news. We have extraordinary uncertainty because we’re pivoting from the phase of the cycle where the Fed had been shoring up the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, and … it did avoid a meltdown in financial markets,” Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“But now we’ve got very easy financial market conditions and we’re dealing with inflation. And having to pivot to dealing with inflation and tamp it down without derailing the recovery — that’s a very hard thing to pull off. We’ve not seen the Fed actually chase inflation down since the early 1980s.”\nPresident Joe Biden also nominated Fed Governor Lael Brainard – previously viewed as a potential candidate for the Fed Chair position to replace Powell — as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors for the Fed. With these two nominations in place, market participants have turned their attention to who might fill he three vacant and soon-to-be vacant seats on the Fed Board, which includes the key Vice Chair for Supervision role. Biden said in a press statement Monday morning he expected to announce those appointments “beginning in early December.”\n“Political decisions like this are competitions between affinity — you like someone in your own party — and convenience — what can you get the Senate to do for you, and will markets receive it well? You have to view the Powell-Brainard picks as part … of a bigger package,” Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus-Mellon chief economist and macro strategist,told Yahoo Finance Live.“The White House is going to have three new governors to appoint, and presumably that’s going to tilt more progressive. So bottom-line, six months from now, the group of people that Chair Powell has to wrangle to make decisions is going to be more dovish than it is today.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875969658,"gmtCreate":1637594860502,"gmtModify":1637594860655,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875969658","repostId":"1170837254","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170837254","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637594462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170837254?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 23:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO shares rose more than 10% in early trading<blockquote>蔚来股价早盘涨超10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170837254","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NIO shares rose more than 10% in early trading.Nio Inc plans to begin taking bookings for its electric sedan ET7 from mid-January onwards, cnEVportreported, citing the team working on the model.The ET7 is the fourth vehicle to go on sale from Nio’s lineup of electric vehicles.Nio launched the flagship sedan ET7 in January at the company’s annual day, complete with its second-generation electric drive system, and it is expected to compete with Tesla Inc’s Model S sedan.","content":"<p>NIO&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709a7939cec9f7c36227189c8c1eb12f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"627\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;plans to begin taking bookings for its electric sedan ET7 from mid-January onwards, cnEVportreported, citing the team working on the model.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价早盘涨超10%。<b>蔚来公司</b>据CNEVPortReport报道，该公司计划从1月中旬开始接受电动轿车ET7的预订，并援引该车型开发团队的话说。</blockquote></p><p> The ET7 is the fourth vehicle to go on sale from Nio’s lineup of electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>ET7是蔚来电动汽车系列中第四款上市销售的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Nio launched the flagship sedan ET7 in January at the company’s annual day, complete with its second-generation electric drive system, and it&nbsp;is expected to compete with&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc’s</b>&nbsp;Model S sedan.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在1月份的公司年度日上推出了旗舰轿车ET7，配备了第二代电力驱动系统，预计将与<b>特斯拉公司</b>S型轿车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO shares rose more than 10% in early trading<blockquote>蔚来股价早盘涨超10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO shares rose more than 10% in early trading<blockquote>蔚来股价早盘涨超10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-22 23:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NIO&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;10%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709a7939cec9f7c36227189c8c1eb12f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"627\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Nio Inc</b>&nbsp;plans to begin taking bookings for its electric sedan ET7 from mid-January onwards, cnEVportreported, citing the team working on the model.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价早盘涨超10%。<b>蔚来公司</b>据CNEVPortReport报道，该公司计划从1月中旬开始接受电动轿车ET7的预订，并援引该车型开发团队的话说。</blockquote></p><p> The ET7 is the fourth vehicle to go on sale from Nio’s lineup of electric vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>ET7是蔚来电动汽车系列中第四款上市销售的汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Nio launched the flagship sedan ET7 in January at the company’s annual day, complete with its second-generation electric drive system, and it&nbsp;is expected to compete with&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc’s</b>&nbsp;Model S sedan.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在1月份的公司年度日上推出了旗舰轿车ET7，配备了第二代电力驱动系统，预计将与<b>特斯拉公司</b>S型轿车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170837254","content_text":"NIO shares rose more than 10% in early trading.Nio Inc plans to begin taking bookings for its electric sedan ET7 from mid-January onwards, cnEVportreported, citing the team working on the model.\nThe ET7 is the fourth vehicle to go on sale from Nio’s lineup of electric vehicles.\nNio launched the flagship sedan ET7 in January at the company’s annual day, complete with its second-generation electric drive system, and it is expected to compete with Tesla Inc’s Model S sedan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847994837,"gmtCreate":1636470825221,"gmtModify":1636470825612,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847994837","repostId":"1105674649","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105674649","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636459675,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105674649?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-09 20:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Expects 40% Revenue Growth in FY 2021; Q3 US Commercial Revenue up 103% Y/Y<blockquote>Palantir预计2021财年收入增长40%；第三季度美国商业收入同比增长103%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105674649","media":"businesswire","summary":"Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) today announced financial results for the third quarter ended","content":"<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）今天公布了截至2021年9月30日的第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 2021 Highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第三季度亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total revenue grew 36% year-over-year to $392 million</li>  <li>Added 34 net new customers in Q3</li>  <li>Commercial customer count grew 46% quarter-over-quarter</li>  <li>US commercial revenue grew 103% year-over-year</li>  <li>Cash flow from operations of $101 million, representing a 26% margin</li>  <li>Adjusted free cash flow of $119 million, representing a 30% margin</li>  <li>Closed 54 deals of $1 million or more, of which:</li>  <li>Total remaining deal value grew 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion</li>  <li>GAAP net loss per share, diluted of $(0.05)</li>  <li>Adjusted earnings per share, diluted of $0.04</li> </ul> <b>Q1-Q3 2021 Highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总收入同比增长36%至3.92亿美元</li><li>第三季度净新增34家新客户</li><li>商业客户数量环比增长46%</li><li>美国商业收入同比增长103%</li><li>运营现金流为1.01亿美元，利润率为26%</li><li>调整后自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%</li><li>完成54笔100万美元或以上的交易，其中：</li><li>剩余交易总价值同比增长50%至36亿美元</li><li>GAAP稀释后每股净亏损为(0.05)美元</li><li>调整后稀释每股收益为0.04美元</li></ul><b>2021年第一季度至第三季度亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $1.1 billion</li>  <li>Commercial customer count increased 135% since December 31, 2020</li>  <li>Cash flow from operations of $240 million, representing a 22% margin</li>  <li>Adjusted free cash flow of $320 million, representing a 29% margin</li> </ul> <b>Q3 2021 Financial Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总收入同比增长44%至11亿美元</li><li>自2020年12月31日以来，商业客户数量增加了135%</li><li>运营现金流为2.4亿美元，利润率为22%</li><li>调整后自由现金流为3.2亿美元，利润率为29%</li></ul><b>2021年第三季度财务摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658b280b0509d4e5fe970e5de61570e5\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>世界观</b></blockquote></p><p> For Q4 2021, we expect:</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第四季度，我们预计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$418 million in revenue.</li>  <li>Adjusted operating margin of 22%.</li> </ul> For full year 2021:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入4.18亿美元。</li><li>调整后营业利润率为22%。</li></ul>2021年全年：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We expect revenue growth of 40% to $1.527 billion.</li>  <li>We are raising our outlook for adjusted free cash flow to in excess of $400 million, up from in excess of $300 million.</li> </ul> Per long-term guidance policy, as provided by our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Karp, we continue to expect:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们预计收入增长40%至15.27亿美元。</li><li>我们将调整后自由现金流的预期从超过3亿美元上调至超过4亿美元。</li></ul>根据我们首席执行官Alex Karp提供的长期指导政策，我们继续期望：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Annual revenue growth of 30% or greater for 2021 through 2025.</li> </ul> Palantir&nbsp;shares&nbsp;once&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca256a464d04c12064d041bcfbdf1049\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年至2025年年收入增长30%或更多。</li></ul>Palantir股价在盘前交易中一度上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1584686423112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Expects 40% Revenue Growth in FY 2021; Q3 US Commercial Revenue up 103% Y/Y<blockquote>Palantir预计2021财年收入增长40%；第三季度美国商业收入同比增长103%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Expects 40% Revenue Growth in FY 2021; Q3 US Commercial Revenue up 103% Y/Y<blockquote>Palantir预计2021财年收入增长40%；第三季度美国商业收入同比增长103%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">businesswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-09 20:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）今天公布了截至2021年9月30日的第三季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 2021 Highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021年第三季度亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total revenue grew 36% year-over-year to $392 million</li>  <li>Added 34 net new customers in Q3</li>  <li>Commercial customer count grew 46% quarter-over-quarter</li>  <li>US commercial revenue grew 103% year-over-year</li>  <li>Cash flow from operations of $101 million, representing a 26% margin</li>  <li>Adjusted free cash flow of $119 million, representing a 30% margin</li>  <li>Closed 54 deals of $1 million or more, of which:</li>  <li>Total remaining deal value grew 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion</li>  <li>GAAP net loss per share, diluted of $(0.05)</li>  <li>Adjusted earnings per share, diluted of $0.04</li> </ul> <b>Q1-Q3 2021 Highlights</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总收入同比增长36%至3.92亿美元</li><li>第三季度净新增34家新客户</li><li>商业客户数量环比增长46%</li><li>美国商业收入同比增长103%</li><li>运营现金流为1.01亿美元，利润率为26%</li><li>调整后自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%</li><li>完成54笔100万美元或以上的交易，其中：</li><li>剩余交易总价值同比增长50%至36亿美元</li><li>GAAP稀释后每股净亏损为(0.05)美元</li><li>调整后稀释每股收益为0.04美元</li></ul><b>2021年第一季度至第三季度亮点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $1.1 billion</li>  <li>Commercial customer count increased 135% since December 31, 2020</li>  <li>Cash flow from operations of $240 million, representing a 22% margin</li>  <li>Adjusted free cash flow of $320 million, representing a 29% margin</li> </ul> <b>Q3 2021 Financial Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总收入同比增长44%至11亿美元</li><li>自2020年12月31日以来，商业客户数量增加了135%</li><li>运营现金流为2.4亿美元，利润率为22%</li><li>调整后自由现金流为3.2亿美元，利润率为29%</li></ul><b>2021年第三季度财务摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658b280b0509d4e5fe970e5de61570e5\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>世界观</b></blockquote></p><p> For Q4 2021, we expect:</p><p><blockquote>对于2021年第四季度，我们预计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$418 million in revenue.</li>  <li>Adjusted operating margin of 22%.</li> </ul> For full year 2021:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入4.18亿美元。</li><li>调整后营业利润率为22%。</li></ul>2021年全年：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We expect revenue growth of 40% to $1.527 billion.</li>  <li>We are raising our outlook for adjusted free cash flow to in excess of $400 million, up from in excess of $300 million.</li> </ul> Per long-term guidance policy, as provided by our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Karp, we continue to expect:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们预计收入增长40%至15.27亿美元。</li><li>我们将调整后自由现金流的预期从超过3亿美元上调至超过4亿美元。</li></ul>根据我们首席执行官Alex Karp提供的长期指导政策，我们继续期望：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Annual revenue growth of 30% or greater for 2021 through 2025.</li> </ul> Palantir&nbsp;shares&nbsp;once&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca256a464d04c12064d041bcfbdf1049\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年至2025年年收入增长30%或更多。</li></ul>Palantir股价在盘前交易中一度上涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211109005487/en/Palantir-Expects-40-Revenue-Growth-in-FY-2021-Q3-US-Commercial-Revenue-up-103-YY\">businesswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211109005487/en/Palantir-Expects-40-Revenue-Growth-in-FY-2021-Q3-US-Commercial-Revenue-up-103-YY","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105674649","content_text":"Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2021.\nQ3 2021 Highlights\n\nTotal revenue grew 36% year-over-year to $392 million\nAdded 34 net new customers in Q3\nCommercial customer count grew 46% quarter-over-quarter\nUS commercial revenue grew 103% year-over-year\nCash flow from operations of $101 million, representing a 26% margin\nAdjusted free cash flow of $119 million, representing a 30% margin\nClosed 54 deals of $1 million or more, of which:\nTotal remaining deal value grew 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion\nGAAP net loss per share, diluted of $(0.05)\nAdjusted earnings per share, diluted of $0.04\n\nQ1-Q3 2021 Highlights\n\nTotal revenue grew 44% year-over-year to $1.1 billion\nCommercial customer count increased 135% since December 31, 2020\nCash flow from operations of $240 million, representing a 22% margin\nAdjusted free cash flow of $320 million, representing a 29% margin\n\nQ3 2021 Financial Summary\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nOutlook\nFor Q4 2021, we expect:\n\n$418 million in revenue.\nAdjusted operating margin of 22%.\n\nFor full year 2021:\n\nWe expect revenue growth of 40% to $1.527 billion.\nWe are raising our outlook for adjusted free cash flow to in excess of $400 million, up from in excess of $300 million.\n\nPer long-term guidance policy, as provided by our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Karp, we continue to expect:\n\nAnnual revenue growth of 30% or greater for 2021 through 2025.\n\nPalantir shares once rose nearly 5% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842031056,"gmtCreate":1636119837177,"gmtModify":1636119837519,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842031056","repostId":"1156660858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156660858","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636113788,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156660858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156660858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of s","content":"<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还公布季度亏损每股1.21美元，大于分析师预期的亏损1.07美元，收入也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还公布季度亏损每股1.21美元，大于分析师预期的亏损1.07美元，收入也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","EXPE":"Expedia",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PFE":"辉瑞","LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","GOOS":"加拿大鹅","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation",".DJI":"道琼斯","SHAK":"Shake Shack Inc","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156660858","content_text":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.\nAt 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.\n\nTravel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.\nThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPfizer(PFE) – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.\nDraftKings(DKNG) – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.\nNvidia(NVDA) – Nvidia shares rose 3% in premarket trading Friday after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.\nPeloton(PTON) – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.\nExpedia(EXPE) – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.\nAirbnb(ABNB) – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.\nUber Technologies(UBER) – Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.\nPinterest(PINS) – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.\nSquare(SQ) -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.\nCanopy Growth(CGC) – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.\nShake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.\nCanada Goose(GOOS) – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.\nLive Nation Entertainment(LYV) – Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.\nLions Gate Entertainment(LGF) – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"LYV":0.9,"EXPE":0.9,"LGF":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"PINS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"SHAK":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"GOOS":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"PTON":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"CGC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848900799,"gmtCreate":1635950924602,"gmtModify":1635950924922,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848900799","repostId":"1150419485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806227773,"gmtCreate":1627659487492,"gmtModify":1631892075689,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like thx","listText":"Like thx","text":"Like thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806227773","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD的利润率增长是由终端市场实力的增强推动的。</li><li>AMD将2021财年的收入指引上调了$1.0 B，毛利率接近50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年的自由现金流也可能达到$6.0 B。</li><li>AMD的美元销售额增长比Nvidia便宜，而且AMD的增长速度甚至可能更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)昨天引起了轰动，此前这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD的收入加速和毛利率强劲扩张为该股的上涨提供了强有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么AMD值120美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在我深入了解AMD的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上季度的指引。对于21年第二季度，AMD预计收入至少为$3.5 B，“高案例”指导意味着收入环比增长7%，毛利率为47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计AMD的收入将达到指导上限（$3.7 B），最低自由现金流为8.95亿美元（环比增长8%），自由现金流利润率为24%。鉴于价格较高的锐龙台式机和笔记本处理器和GPU的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/ASP上升，我预计AMD将超出自己的利润率指导，并报告毛利率21年第二季度为48%。我还预测，由于CPU和GPU平均售价的强劲，AMD的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD：迈向50亿美元的年度自由现金流》中详细阐述了对AMD 21年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>谈到AMD的实际业绩，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21年第二季度的收入为38.5亿美元，比指导上限高出1.5亿美元，环比增长12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增加以及平均售价的提高，图形/计算收入环比增长7%，达到22.5亿美元。企业业务已成为AMD近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21年第二季度收入为$1.6 B，环比增长19%。继AMD在21年第一季度录得5%的季度收入增长后，企业收入在21年第二季度继续加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD 21年第二季度收益中最有趣的启示是毛利率的趋势。AMD的毛利率跃升4个百分点至48%，比指导值高出1个百分点，原因是价格较高的锐龙处理器（移动和桌面）和镭龙显卡的更好组合。21年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着AMD利润率连续第三个季度扩张，我认为AMD还没有看到这一趋势的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告的经营活动现金流为9.52亿美元，自由现金流为8.88亿美元，比我的预期低700万美元，但仍是一年前的近六倍。随着AMD在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信AMD可以在明年年底前将其自由现金流利润率提高到30%。AMD将2021财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）提高了$1.0 B，这意味着我也刷新了今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD预计今年的收入为$15.6 B。假设稳定的自由现金流利润率为23-24%，AMD预计自由现金流为$3.6 B至$3.7 B。明年的收入预期尚未更新，但AMD在2022财年的收入应至少为$20B（假设同比增长25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流为$4.6 B至$4.8 B……而这些预期并未考虑AMD第三代EPYC Milan驱动的服务器处理器和价格更高的GPU提高AMD自由现金流利润率的可能性。明年30%的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为$6.0 B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD预计收入为41亿美元+/-1亿美元，该公司更新了2021财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD目前预计2021财年收入增长60%（之前为50%），毛利率为48%（之前为47%）。假设收入增长60%，AMD目前预计全年收入为$15.6 B（之前为$14.6 B），因此AMD的新指导评级为$1.0 B的额外收入，这些收入迄今为止尚未计入AMD的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票升值创造了强大的力量。由于AMD股价最近下跌以及收入增加了$1.0 B，AMD的美元销售额增长在盈利后变得更加便宜。AMD的美元销售额增长低于Nvidia，而且AMD的增长速度可能更快：AMD的收入指导评级为同比增长60%，对Nvidia的预测意味着2021财年“仅”同比增长49%。AMD的市值与市盈率为42.5，对于一家收入增长60%、毛利率接近50%的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>基于2022财年每股收益17.29美元，Nvidia的市盈率为44.5。如果AMD的盈利增长（2022财年每股收益为2.71美元）与Nvidia的估值相同，AMD的公平价格将为120美元（2.71美元x 44.5盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这是我相信AMD可以重估更高的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长3-4个PP。如果AMD的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至40%，AMD的股票回报可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对AMD的看法，并使我120美元的股价目标面临危险。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着AMD终端市场的提前疲软。终端市场疲软意味着AMD的收入增长将放缓，这可能会导致AMD利润估值的盈利乘数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场随时可能不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD上调指引和环比收入加速表明CPU和GPU的终端市场远强于预期。在平均售价上升的支持下，这可能会导致又一年的收入加速增长，AMD的毛利率持续扩大至50%。AMD的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168578648,"gmtCreate":1623979748384,"gmtModify":1634024841750,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168578648","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894082062,"gmtCreate":1628777952756,"gmtModify":1631890188492,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894082062","repostId":"1182304144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182304144","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628777611,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182304144?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.<blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182304144","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Palantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong go","content":"<p>Palantir&nbsp;Technologies&nbsp;shares&nbsp;gain&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;12%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548ca8b78dadac26cb4d35346f52e7cb\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Palantir Technologies Inc. forecast sales of its data software will grow 33% in the third quarter, reflecting heightened demand from government agencies and that more companies are beginning to sign up.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.预测其数据软件的销售额将在第三季度增长33%，反映出政府机构需求的增加以及更多公司开始签约。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue will be about $385 million in the period ending in September, the Denver-based company said in a statement Thursday. That exceeds the company’s previous outlook as well as an average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于丹佛的公司周四在一份声明中表示，截至9月份的收入约为3.85亿美元。这超出了该公司之前的预期以及彭博社编制的分析师平均预期。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has been recruiting an array of corporate allies with the goal of attracting new customers. It forged partnerships this year with International Business Machines Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. to resell its technology and with Amazon Web Services to support it. Palantir also expanded its own sales team.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir一直在招募一系列企业盟友，目标是吸引新客户。今年，它与国际商业机器公司和富士通有限公司建立了合作伙伴关系，以转售其技术，并与亚马逊网络服务建立了支持该技术的合作伙伴关系。Palantir还扩大了自己的销售团队。</blockquote></p><p> The search went even wider last month to include small companies. Palantir began selling its software through a monthly subscription to a handful of startups connected to former employees. The company also invested in a dozen startups and signed them up as customers, marking a reversal of its previous approach to only pursue large deals.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，搜索范围更广，包括小公司。Palantir开始通过按月订阅的方式向少数与前员工有联系的初创公司销售其软件。该公司还投资了十几家初创公司，并与它们签约成为客户，这标志着其此前只追求大宗交易的做法发生了逆转。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve always invested in companies. Now we can do it with our balance sheet,” Kevin Kawasaki, the head of business development, said on a conference call with analysts Thursday. “This is a long-term strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>业务发展主管Kevin Kawasaki周四在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示：“我们一直投资公司。现在我们可以通过资产负债表来做到这一点。”“这是一个长期战略。”</blockquote></p><p> The shifting strategy came at a cost. The second-quarter loss was 7 cents a share. Stock-based compensation accounts for a hefty portion.</p><p><blockquote>战略的转变是有代价的。第二季度每股亏损7美分。股票薪酬占很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Sales results in the quarter were encouraging. Palantir reported $376 million in revenue for the period that ended in June, up 49% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>本季度的销售业绩令人鼓舞。Palantir公布截至6月份的收入为3.76亿美元，同比增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> Many government agencies have flocked to Palantir since last year to help them analyze the Covid-19 pandemic. Government sales remained healthy in the second quarter at a growth rate of 66%, the company said. It was 83% in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，许多政府机构纷纷涌向Palantir，帮助他们分析Covid-19大流行。该公司表示，第二季度政府销售额保持健康，增长率为66%。第一季度为83%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention all signed deals during the second quarter. “The government business is on fire,” said Shyam Sankar, the chief operating officer.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家核安全局、美国海岸警卫队、联邦航空管理局和美国疾病控制与预防中心都在第二季度签署了协议。“政府业务着火了，”首席运营官希亚姆·桑卡尔(Shyam Sankar)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate customers make up a smaller pool of Palantir’s revenue, but renewed efforts there appear to be paying off. U.S. sales growth in the commercial segment was 90% in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>企业客户在Palantir收入中所占的比例较小，但在这方面的新努力似乎正在得到回报。第二季度美国商业部门的销售额增长了90%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.<blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.<blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 22:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Palantir&nbsp;Technologies&nbsp;shares&nbsp;gain&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;12%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies股价在早盘交易中上涨近12%，因政府大力支持而上调了销售预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548ca8b78dadac26cb4d35346f52e7cb\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Palantir Technologies Inc. forecast sales of its data software will grow 33% in the third quarter, reflecting heightened demand from government agencies and that more companies are beginning to sign up.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies Inc.预测其数据软件的销售额将在第三季度增长33%，反映出政府机构需求的增加以及更多公司开始签约。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue will be about $385 million in the period ending in September, the Denver-based company said in a statement Thursday. That exceeds the company’s previous outlook as well as an average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于丹佛的公司周四在一份声明中表示，截至9月份的收入约为3.85亿美元。这超出了该公司之前的预期以及彭博社编制的分析师平均预期。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has been recruiting an array of corporate allies with the goal of attracting new customers. It forged partnerships this year with International Business Machines Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. to resell its technology and with Amazon Web Services to support it. Palantir also expanded its own sales team.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir一直在招募一系列企业盟友，目标是吸引新客户。今年，它与国际商业机器公司和富士通有限公司建立了合作伙伴关系，以转售其技术，并与亚马逊网络服务建立了支持该技术的合作伙伴关系。Palantir还扩大了自己的销售团队。</blockquote></p><p> The search went even wider last month to include small companies. Palantir began selling its software through a monthly subscription to a handful of startups connected to former employees. The company also invested in a dozen startups and signed them up as customers, marking a reversal of its previous approach to only pursue large deals.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，搜索范围更广，包括小公司。Palantir开始通过按月订阅的方式向少数与前员工有联系的初创公司销售其软件。该公司还投资了十几家初创公司，并与它们签约成为客户，这标志着其此前只追求大宗交易的做法发生了逆转。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve always invested in companies. Now we can do it with our balance sheet,” Kevin Kawasaki, the head of business development, said on a conference call with analysts Thursday. “This is a long-term strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>业务发展主管Kevin Kawasaki周四在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示：“我们一直投资公司。现在我们可以通过资产负债表来做到这一点。”“这是一个长期战略。”</blockquote></p><p> The shifting strategy came at a cost. The second-quarter loss was 7 cents a share. Stock-based compensation accounts for a hefty portion.</p><p><blockquote>战略的转变是有代价的。第二季度每股亏损7美分。股票薪酬占很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Sales results in the quarter were encouraging. Palantir reported $376 million in revenue for the period that ended in June, up 49% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>本季度的销售业绩令人鼓舞。Palantir公布截至6月份的收入为3.76亿美元，同比增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> Many government agencies have flocked to Palantir since last year to help them analyze the Covid-19 pandemic. Government sales remained healthy in the second quarter at a growth rate of 66%, the company said. It was 83% in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，许多政府机构纷纷涌向Palantir，帮助他们分析Covid-19大流行。该公司表示，第二季度政府销售额保持健康，增长率为66%。第一季度为83%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention all signed deals during the second quarter. “The government business is on fire,” said Shyam Sankar, the chief operating officer.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家核安全局、美国海岸警卫队、联邦航空管理局和美国疾病控制与预防中心都在第二季度签署了协议。“政府业务着火了，”首席运营官希亚姆·桑卡尔(Shyam Sankar)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate customers make up a smaller pool of Palantir’s revenue, but renewed efforts there appear to be paying off. U.S. sales growth in the commercial segment was 90% in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>企业客户在Palantir收入中所占的比例较小，但在这方面的新努力似乎正在得到回报。第二季度美国商业部门的销售额增长了90%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182304144","content_text":"Palantir Technologies shares gain nearly 12% in early trading as raising sales forecast on strong government uptake.\nPalantir Technologies Inc. forecast sales of its data software will grow 33% in the third quarter, reflecting heightened demand from government agencies and that more companies are beginning to sign up.\nRevenue will be about $385 million in the period ending in September, the Denver-based company said in a statement Thursday. That exceeds the company’s previous outlook as well as an average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.\nPalantir has been recruiting an array of corporate allies with the goal of attracting new customers. It forged partnerships this year with International Business Machines Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. to resell its technology and with Amazon Web Services to support it. Palantir also expanded its own sales team.\nThe search went even wider last month to include small companies. Palantir began selling its software through a monthly subscription to a handful of startups connected to former employees. The company also invested in a dozen startups and signed them up as customers, marking a reversal of its previous approach to only pursue large deals.\n“We’ve always invested in companies. Now we can do it with our balance sheet,” Kevin Kawasaki, the head of business development, said on a conference call with analysts Thursday. “This is a long-term strategy.”\nThe shifting strategy came at a cost. The second-quarter loss was 7 cents a share. Stock-based compensation accounts for a hefty portion.\nSales results in the quarter were encouraging. Palantir reported $376 million in revenue for the period that ended in June, up 49% from a year earlier.\nMany government agencies have flocked to Palantir since last year to help them analyze the Covid-19 pandemic. Government sales remained healthy in the second quarter at a growth rate of 66%, the company said. It was 83% in the first quarter.\nThe U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, the U.S. Coast Guard, the Federal Aviation Administration and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention all signed deals during the second quarter. “The government business is on fire,” said Shyam Sankar, the chief operating officer.\nCorporate customers make up a smaller pool of Palantir’s revenue, but renewed efforts there appear to be paying off. U.S. sales growth in the commercial segment was 90% in the second quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":862392180,"gmtCreate":1632836531750,"gmtModify":1632836531884,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862392180","repostId":"1132921618","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811378419,"gmtCreate":1630292986831,"gmtModify":1704957948187,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811378419","repostId":"1111636215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835441224,"gmtCreate":1629735057168,"gmtModify":1631890188470,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835441224","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","SNPS":"新思科技","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOG":"谷歌","QCOM":"高通","CDNS":"铿腾电子","TSM":"台积电","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ON":"安森美半导体","ASML":"阿斯麦","AAPL":"苹果","SSNLF":"三星电子","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149747001,"gmtCreate":1625751059803,"gmtModify":1633937732051,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149747001","repostId":"1197668591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197668591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625749319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197668591?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Auto Giant Looks To Catch Up To GM, Tesla On EVs With $35.5 Billion Move<blockquote>汽车巨头希望斥资355亿美元在电动汽车领域赶上通用汽车和特斯拉</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197668591","media":"investors","summary":"Stellantis(STLA) detailed its strategy for electric vehicles Thursday, with the global EV market poi","content":"<p><b>Stellantis</b>(STLA) detailed its strategy for electric vehicles Thursday, with the global EV market poised to boom this decade. Stellantis stock fell.</p><p><blockquote><b>Stellantis</b>(STLA)周四详细介绍了其电动汽车战略，全球电动汽车市场有望在本十年蓬勃发展。Stellantis股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At the automaker's EV day, management announced 30 billion euros ($35.5 billion) of investments in electrification and software. It also sees more than 70% of its sales in Europe being \"low emission vehicles\" by 2030 and more than 40% in the U.S., with all 14 of its brands offering \"electrified\" models. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicles will have ranges of 300-500 miles per charge.</p><p><blockquote>在该汽车制造商的电动汽车日上，管理层宣布在电气化和软件领域投资300亿欧元（355亿美元）。该公司还预计，到2030年，其在欧洲的销量将超过70%是“低排放汽车”，在美国的销量将超过40%，其所有14个品牌都将提供“电动”车型。与此同时，纯电动汽车每次充电的续航里程为300-500英里。</blockquote></p><p> The stakes are high for Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler. It's seen lagging&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>(GM),<b>Ford Motor</b>(F) and&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) that have rushed to bring their first all-electric SUVs, trucks and vans to market. And&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dominate despite the proliferation of new EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis（前身为菲亚特克莱斯勒）的风险很高。它被视为滞后<b>通用汽车</b>（通用），<b>福特汽车</b>(F)及<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)纷纷将首款全电动SUV、卡车和货车推向市场。和<b>特斯拉</b>尽管新的电动汽车股票激增，但(TSLA)继续占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, rivals are also bringing electric trucks and vans to market soon. Ford's F-150 Lightning quickly racked up more than 100,000 reservations after launching in May. It arrives at dealers in the summer of 2022. And the electric Ford E-Transit commercial van, arriving later this year, has more than 20,000 reservations. Reservations for GM's initial Hummer EV pickup trucks and SUVs also sold out rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，竞争对手也很快将电动卡车和货车推向市场。福特F-150 Lightning在5月份推出后迅速获得了超过10万份预订。它将于2022年夏季到达经销商处。今年晚些时候上市的电动福特E-Transit商用货车已有超过20,000份预订。通用汽车最初的悍马电动皮卡和SUV的预订也很快售罄。</blockquote></p><p> In April, CEO Carlos Tavares vowed Stellantis is accelerating on electrification, committing to an all-electric or hybrid-electric version of almost its entire lineup of vehicles by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)发誓Stellantis正在加速电气化，承诺到2025年为其几乎整个车辆系列推出全电动或混合动力版本。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis's Fiat brand has already signaled switching to an all-electric lineup by 2030. The luxury Alfa Romeo and Maserati brands are expected to follow.</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis的菲亚特品牌已经表示将在2030年转向全电动产品线。豪华品牌阿尔法罗密欧和玛莎拉蒂预计将紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis Stock Falls</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis股价下跌</blockquote></p><p> Shares fell 2.6% to 19.01 in premarket trading on thestock market today. Ahead of the EV day, the company said adjusted operating margins in the first half of the year will top the annual target of 5.5%-7.5%, despite lost production from the global chip shortage. It also projected negative industrial free cash flow in the first half but positive cash flow for the whole year as synergies from the merger are exceeding targets.</p><p><blockquote>今天股市盘前交易中，股价下跌2.6%，至19.01点。在电动汽车日之前，该公司表示，尽管全球芯片短缺导致产量损失，但上半年调整后的营业利润率将超过5.5%-7.5%的年度目标。它还预计上半年工业自由现金流为负，但由于合并的协同效应超出了目标，全年现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis stock cleared an 18.62 flat-base buy point in May but is now pulling back to the 50-day line, according toMarketSmith chart analysis. The relative strength line is just below June highs after rallying in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmith图表分析，Stellantis股票在5月份突破了18.62的平基买入点，但目前正在回落至50日线。在过去一年上涨后，相对强弱线略低于6月高点。</blockquote></p><p> GM stockfell 2.5% early Thursday,Ford stocklost 2.8% andTeslaeased 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价周四早盘下跌2.5%，福特股价下跌2.8%，特斯拉下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> After years of sluggish sales, the adoption of electric vehicles is at an inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的销售低迷，电动汽车的采用正处于拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The number of electric cars, buses, vans and trucks on the world's roads will hit 145 million by 2030, the International Energy Agency estimated in April. That would be up from 10 million in 2020, a year that saw EV sales increase though overall sales fell due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署4月份估计，到2030年，全球道路上的电动汽车、公共汽车、货车和卡车数量将达到1.45亿辆。这将高于2020年的1000万辆，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，整体销量下降，但这一年电动汽车销量有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> For now, however, electric vehicles remain a relatively tough sell in the U.S. compared with China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就目前而言，与中国和欧洲相比，电动汽车在美国的销售仍然相对困难。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Auto Giant Looks To Catch Up To GM, Tesla On EVs With $35.5 Billion Move<blockquote>汽车巨头希望斥资355亿美元在电动汽车领域赶上通用汽车和特斯拉</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAuto Giant Looks To Catch Up To GM, Tesla On EVs With $35.5 Billion Move<blockquote>汽车巨头希望斥资355亿美元在电动汽车领域赶上通用汽车和特斯拉</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 21:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Stellantis</b>(STLA) detailed its strategy for electric vehicles Thursday, with the global EV market poised to boom this decade. Stellantis stock fell.</p><p><blockquote><b>Stellantis</b>(STLA)周四详细介绍了其电动汽车战略，全球电动汽车市场有望在本十年蓬勃发展。Stellantis股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> At the automaker's EV day, management announced 30 billion euros ($35.5 billion) of investments in electrification and software. It also sees more than 70% of its sales in Europe being \"low emission vehicles\" by 2030 and more than 40% in the U.S., with all 14 of its brands offering \"electrified\" models. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicles will have ranges of 300-500 miles per charge.</p><p><blockquote>在该汽车制造商的电动汽车日上，管理层宣布在电气化和软件领域投资300亿欧元（355亿美元）。该公司还预计，到2030年，其在欧洲的销量将超过70%是“低排放汽车”，在美国的销量将超过40%，其所有14个品牌都将提供“电动”车型。与此同时，纯电动汽车每次充电的续航里程为300-500英里。</blockquote></p><p> The stakes are high for Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler. It's seen lagging&nbsp;<b>General Motors</b>(GM),<b>Ford Motor</b>(F) and&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(VWAGY) that have rushed to bring their first all-electric SUVs, trucks and vans to market. And&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dominate despite the proliferation of new EV stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis（前身为菲亚特克莱斯勒）的风险很高。它被视为滞后<b>通用汽车</b>（通用），<b>福特汽车</b>(F)及<b>大众汽车</b>(VWAGY)纷纷将首款全电动SUV、卡车和货车推向市场。和<b>特斯拉</b>尽管新的电动汽车股票激增，但(TSLA)继续占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, rivals are also bringing electric trucks and vans to market soon. Ford's F-150 Lightning quickly racked up more than 100,000 reservations after launching in May. It arrives at dealers in the summer of 2022. And the electric Ford E-Transit commercial van, arriving later this year, has more than 20,000 reservations. Reservations for GM's initial Hummer EV pickup trucks and SUVs also sold out rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，竞争对手也很快将电动卡车和货车推向市场。福特F-150 Lightning在5月份推出后迅速获得了超过10万份预订。它将于2022年夏季到达经销商处。今年晚些时候上市的电动福特E-Transit商用货车已有超过20,000份预订。通用汽车最初的悍马电动皮卡和SUV的预订也很快售罄。</blockquote></p><p> In April, CEO Carlos Tavares vowed Stellantis is accelerating on electrification, committing to an all-electric or hybrid-electric version of almost its entire lineup of vehicles by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>今年4月，首席执行官卡洛斯·塔瓦雷斯(Carlos Tavares)发誓Stellantis正在加速电气化，承诺到2025年为其几乎整个车辆系列推出全电动或混合动力版本。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis's Fiat brand has already signaled switching to an all-electric lineup by 2030. The luxury Alfa Romeo and Maserati brands are expected to follow.</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis的菲亚特品牌已经表示将在2030年转向全电动产品线。豪华品牌阿尔法罗密欧和玛莎拉蒂预计将紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis Stock Falls</p><p><blockquote>Stellantis股价下跌</blockquote></p><p> Shares fell 2.6% to 19.01 in premarket trading on thestock market today. Ahead of the EV day, the company said adjusted operating margins in the first half of the year will top the annual target of 5.5%-7.5%, despite lost production from the global chip shortage. It also projected negative industrial free cash flow in the first half but positive cash flow for the whole year as synergies from the merger are exceeding targets.</p><p><blockquote>今天股市盘前交易中，股价下跌2.6%，至19.01点。在电动汽车日之前，该公司表示，尽管全球芯片短缺导致产量损失，但上半年调整后的营业利润率将超过5.5%-7.5%的年度目标。它还预计上半年工业自由现金流为负，但由于合并的协同效应超出了目标，全年现金流为正。</blockquote></p><p> Stellantis stock cleared an 18.62 flat-base buy point in May but is now pulling back to the 50-day line, according toMarketSmith chart analysis. The relative strength line is just below June highs after rallying in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmith图表分析，Stellantis股票在5月份突破了18.62的平基买入点，但目前正在回落至50日线。在过去一年上涨后，相对强弱线略低于6月高点。</blockquote></p><p> GM stockfell 2.5% early Thursday,Ford stocklost 2.8% andTeslaeased 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价周四早盘下跌2.5%，福特股价下跌2.8%，特斯拉下跌2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> After years of sluggish sales, the adoption of electric vehicles is at an inflection point.</p><p><blockquote>经过多年的销售低迷，电动汽车的采用正处于拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The number of electric cars, buses, vans and trucks on the world's roads will hit 145 million by 2030, the International Energy Agency estimated in April. That would be up from 10 million in 2020, a year that saw EV sales increase though overall sales fell due to the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署4月份估计，到2030年，全球道路上的电动汽车、公共汽车、货车和卡车数量将达到1.45亿辆。这将高于2020年的1000万辆，尽管由于冠状病毒大流行，整体销量下降，但这一年电动汽车销量有所增长。</blockquote></p><p> For now, however, electric vehicles remain a relatively tough sell in the U.S. compared with China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就目前而言，与中国和欧洲相比，电动汽车在美国的销售仍然相对困难。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/news/stellantis-stock-ev-day-fiat-chrysler-parent-trails-gm-ford-tesla/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","STLA":"Stellantis NV","F":"福特汽车","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/news/stellantis-stock-ev-day-fiat-chrysler-parent-trails-gm-ford-tesla/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197668591","content_text":"Stellantis(STLA) detailed its strategy for electric vehicles Thursday, with the global EV market poised to boom this decade. Stellantis stock fell.\nAt the automaker's EV day, management announced 30 billion euros ($35.5 billion) of investments in electrification and software. It also sees more than 70% of its sales in Europe being \"low emission vehicles\" by 2030 and more than 40% in the U.S., with all 14 of its brands offering \"electrified\" models. Meanwhile, battery electric vehicles will have ranges of 300-500 miles per charge.\nThe stakes are high for Stellantis, formerly Fiat Chrysler. It's seen lagging General Motors(GM),Ford Motor(F) and Volkswagen(VWAGY) that have rushed to bring their first all-electric SUVs, trucks and vans to market. And Tesla(TSLA) continues to dominate despite the proliferation of new EV stocks.\nMeanwhile, rivals are also bringing electric trucks and vans to market soon. Ford's F-150 Lightning quickly racked up more than 100,000 reservations after launching in May. It arrives at dealers in the summer of 2022. And the electric Ford E-Transit commercial van, arriving later this year, has more than 20,000 reservations. Reservations for GM's initial Hummer EV pickup trucks and SUVs also sold out rapidly.\nIn April, CEO Carlos Tavares vowed Stellantis is accelerating on electrification, committing to an all-electric or hybrid-electric version of almost its entire lineup of vehicles by 2025.\nStellantis's Fiat brand has already signaled switching to an all-electric lineup by 2030. The luxury Alfa Romeo and Maserati brands are expected to follow.\nStellantis Stock Falls\nShares fell 2.6% to 19.01 in premarket trading on thestock market today. Ahead of the EV day, the company said adjusted operating margins in the first half of the year will top the annual target of 5.5%-7.5%, despite lost production from the global chip shortage. It also projected negative industrial free cash flow in the first half but positive cash flow for the whole year as synergies from the merger are exceeding targets.\nStellantis stock cleared an 18.62 flat-base buy point in May but is now pulling back to the 50-day line, according toMarketSmith chart analysis. The relative strength line is just below June highs after rallying in the past year.\nGM stockfell 2.5% early Thursday,Ford stocklost 2.8% andTeslaeased 2.6%.\nAfter years of sluggish sales, the adoption of electric vehicles is at an inflection point.\nThe number of electric cars, buses, vans and trucks on the world's roads will hit 145 million by 2030, the International Energy Agency estimated in April. That would be up from 10 million in 2020, a year that saw EV sales increase though overall sales fell due to the coronavirus pandemic.\nFor now, however, electric vehicles remain a relatively tough sell in the U.S. compared with China and Europe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9,"VWAGY":0.9,"STLA":0.9,"F":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":866847036,"gmtCreate":1632756383525,"gmtModify":1632798043027,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866847036","repostId":"1121875407","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121875407","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632754841,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121875407?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121875407","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Li Auto,Lucid,Fisker,Tusimple and Nikola shares c","content":"<p>EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Li Auto,Lucid,Fisker,Tusimple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nikola&nbsp;shares&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨。特斯拉、蔚来、理想汽车、Lucid、菲斯克、图森未来和尼古拉股价上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6034adf0ec1a0d3f13f4e2cb4a2b57\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory is expected to produce 300,000 cars in the first nine months of the year, Reuters&nbsp;reported, citing two unidentified sources.</p><p><blockquote>据路透社援引两名身份不明的消息人士报道，特斯拉公司上海工厂预计今年前九个月将生产30万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks rose in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-27 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Li Auto,Lucid,Fisker,Tusimple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Nikola&nbsp;shares&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 6%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股周一早盘上涨。特斯拉、蔚来、理想汽车、Lucid、菲斯克、图森未来和尼古拉股价上涨1%至6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6034adf0ec1a0d3f13f4e2cb4a2b57\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"722\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory is expected to produce 300,000 cars in the first nine months of the year, Reuters&nbsp;reported, citing two unidentified sources.</p><p><blockquote>据路透社援引两名身份不明的消息人士报道，特斯拉公司上海工厂预计今年前九个月将生产30万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","FSR":"菲斯克","NIU":"小牛电动","TSLA":"特斯拉","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121875407","content_text":"EV stocks rose in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Li Auto,Lucid,Fisker,Tusimple and Nikola shares climbed between 1% and 6%. \n\nTesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory is expected to produce 300,000 cars in the first nine months of the year, Reuters reported, citing two unidentified sources.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"TSP":0.9,"NIU":0.9,"ARVL":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"WKHS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886912793,"gmtCreate":1631543323812,"gmtModify":1631890188404,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886912793","repostId":"1170383544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170383544","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631542185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170383544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>热门中概股早盘跳水</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170383544","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,DIDI,Bilibili,RL","content":"<p>Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,DIDI,Bilibili,RLX Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent music&nbsp;between 1% and 9%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中概股早盘下跌，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴、哔哩哔哩、RLX科技和腾讯控股音乐跌幅在1%至9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634dbf9be8ba7edcb7ca8b9b2e7f1e6a\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>热门中概股早盘跳水</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>热门中概股早盘跳水</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,DIDI,Bilibili,RLX Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Tencent music&nbsp;between 1% and 9%.</p><p><blockquote>热门中概股早盘下跌，阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、滴滴、哔哩哔哩、RLX科技和腾讯控股音乐跌幅在1%至9%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634dbf9be8ba7edcb7ca8b9b2e7f1e6a\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐","RLX":"雾芯科技","BIDU":"百度","PDD":"拼多多","BABA":"阿里巴巴","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170383544","content_text":"Hot chinese concept stocks dipped in morning trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,DIDI,Bilibili,RLX Technology and Tencent music between 1% and 9%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"RLX":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"TME":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":848900799,"gmtCreate":1635950924602,"gmtModify":1635950924922,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848900799","repostId":"1150419485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868559330,"gmtCreate":1632680814520,"gmtModify":1632798636083,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868559330","repostId":"1175726457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会战胜市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会战胜市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Market Watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179620319,"gmtCreate":1626520797831,"gmtModify":1633926074816,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179620319","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125285137,"gmtCreate":1624675421129,"gmtModify":1633949729634,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125285137","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":602379481,"gmtCreate":1638976775867,"gmtModify":1638976776148,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602379481","repostId":"1149846873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149846873","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638975974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149846873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 23:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149846873","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock foll","content":"<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading<blockquote>DocuSign股价早盘上涨5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 23:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.首席执行官在大规模抛售后购买了近500万美元的股票，DocuSign股价在早盘交易中上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77953caadaf709eae41dfe416c6a048\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149846873","content_text":"DocuSign stock climbed 5% in morning trading after DocuSign Inc. CEO bought nearly $5m in stock following massive sell-off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842031056,"gmtCreate":1636119837177,"gmtModify":1636119837519,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842031056","repostId":"1156660858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156660858","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636113788,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156660858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156660858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of s","content":"<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还公布季度亏损每股1.21美元，大于分析师预期的亏损1.07美元，收入也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还公布季度亏损每股1.21美元，大于分析师预期的亏损1.07美元，收入也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","EXPE":"Expedia",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PFE":"辉瑞","LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","GOOS":"加拿大鹅","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation",".DJI":"道琼斯","SHAK":"Shake Shack Inc","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156660858","content_text":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.\nAt 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.\n\nTravel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.\nThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPfizer(PFE) – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.\nDraftKings(DKNG) – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.\nNvidia(NVDA) – Nvidia shares rose 3% in premarket trading Friday after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.\nPeloton(PTON) – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.\nExpedia(EXPE) – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.\nAirbnb(ABNB) – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.\nUber Technologies(UBER) – Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.\nPinterest(PINS) – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.\nSquare(SQ) -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.\nCanopy Growth(CGC) – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.\nShake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.\nCanada Goose(GOOS) – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.\nLive Nation Entertainment(LYV) – Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.\nLions Gate Entertainment(LGF) – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"LYV":0.9,"EXPE":0.9,"LGF":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"PINS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"SHAK":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"GOOS":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"PTON":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"CGC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825256475,"gmtCreate":1634233918285,"gmtModify":1634233918398,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825256475","repostId":"1184483169","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184483169","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634205641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184483169?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"4 Unstoppable Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的4只不可阻挡的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184483169","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Crashes and corrections are the perfect opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Double-digit percentage declines in the broader market are more common than investors realize.</li>  <li>There are no shortage of catalysts that could cause a stock market crash or correction.</li>  <li>Buying this quartet of unstoppable companies during a broad-market decline would be a wise move.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大盘两位数的百分比下跌比投资者意识到的更常见。</li><li>不乏可能导致股市崩盘或调整的催化剂。</li><li>在大盘下跌期间收购这四家势不可挡的公司将是明智之举。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Some investors might not be thrilled with what I'm about to say, but it's simply a matter of allowing historical data do the talking: A stock market crash or correction may be brewing.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能不会对我要说的话感到兴奋，但这只是一个让历史数据说话的问题：股市崩盘或调整可能正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;underwent its first correction of at least 5% in 10 months. While nothing is guaranteed on Wall Street, a number of signs appear to be pointing to the growing likelihood of downside for the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>近日，基准<b>标普500</b>经历了10个月内至少5%的首次修正。尽管华尔街没有什么是可以保证的，但一些迹象似乎表明大盘下跌的可能性越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf177a2ce4f54e7ed16e4189edb28a7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>There are a laundry list of catalysts that could send the market lower</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有一系列催化剂可能会导致市场走低</b></blockquote></p><p> For instance, since the beginning of 1950, there have been 38 double-digit percentage declines in the S&amp;P 500. That equates to one drop of at least 10%, on average, every 1.87 years. We're now more than 1.5 years removed from the chaotic bear market decline that bottomed out during the initial stages of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1950年初以来，标普500出现了38次两位数的百分比下降。这相当于平均每1.87年下降至少10%。我们现在距离冠状病毒大流行初期触底的混乱熊市下跌已经过去了1.5年多。</blockquote></p><p> To build on this point, the broader market&nbsp;has responded very similarly&nbsp;following crashes or corrections for the past 60 years. Following each of the previous eight bear markets, excluding the coronavirus crash, there were either one or two declines of 10% in the S&amp;P 500 within three years. What this tells us is that rebounding from a bear market is a process and pretty much never the straight line higher that investors have reveled in for more than 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，大盘在过去60年的崩盘或调整后做出了非常相似的反应。在之前的八次熊市之后，不包括冠状病毒崩盘，标普500在三年内都有一两次下跌10%。这告诉我们，从熊市中反弹是一个过程，而且几乎不会像投资者18个多月来所陶醉的直线上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Macroeconomic factors and fundamental metrics pose warnings, too. Rapidly rising crude oil and natural-gas prices threaten pocketbooks and could quickly throttle down economic growth following the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p><blockquote>宏观经济因素和基本面指标也发出了警告。原油和天然气价格的快速上涨威胁着人们的钱包，并可能在大流行引发的衰退后迅速抑制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> There's also margin debt, which&nbsp;has climbed at a precipitous pace in 2021. Data from market-analytics company Yardeni Research shows that there have only been three instances since the beginning of 1995 where margin debt rose 60% or more in a single year. The previous two occurred just months before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began.</p><p><blockquote>还有保证金债务，该债务在2021年急剧攀升。市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据显示，自1995年初以来，只有三起保证金债务在一年内上涨60%或以上的情况。前两次发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始前几个月。</blockquote></p><p> Even valuations are a concern. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits at 37.7, which is well over double its 151-year average of 16.9. Perhaps more worrisome, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E has only crossed above and held 30 on five occasions in 151 years. The previous four instances saw minimum declines of at least 20% after the Shiller P/E ratio peaked.</p><p><blockquote>甚至估值也是一个问题。标普500的席勒市盈率(P/E)为37.7，远高于151年平均水平16.9的两倍多。也许更令人担忧的是，标普500的席勒市盈率在151年里只有五次突破并保持在30以上。在席勒市盈率见顶后，前四次的最低跌幅至少为20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5907a4556df957bb90a0b8342cf7d9b9\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Crashes and corrections are an opportunity to buy great stocks at a discount</p><p><blockquote>崩盘和调整是以折扣价购买优质股票的机会</blockquote></p><p> But there's another side to this story. Even though stock market corrections occur often, they've always eventually been erased by a bull-market rally. Buying great companies at a discount during a crash or correction and holding those stakes for long periods of time is a recipe to build wealth over time.</p><p><blockquote>但是这个故事还有另一面。尽管股市调整经常发生，但它们最终总是被牛市反弹抹去。在崩盘或调整期间以折扣价购买优秀公司并长期持有这些股份是随着时间的推移积累财富的秘诀。</blockquote></p><p> If a stock market crash or double-digit percentage correction does materialize from this recent uptick in volatility, the following four unstoppable stocks would make for perfect buys.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近波动性上升确实导致股市崩盘或两位数百分比调整，那么以下四只势不可挡的股票将是完美的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the safest ways to build wealth over the long run is to follow in the footsteps of billionaire investor Warren Buffett. The easiest way to do that is to buy shares of&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), the conglomerate run by Buffett that's averaged ajaw-dropping annual return of 20%since the beginning of 1965 (an aggregate return of close to 3,300,000%).</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，积累财富最安全的方法之一是追随亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特的脚步。最简单的方法是购买<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B），巴菲特经营的企业集团，自1965年初以来的平均年回报率为令人瞠目结舌的20%（总回报率接近3,300,000%）。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is successful for two key reasons. First,it's highly cyclical, with about 85% of the company's invested assets tied up in tech stocks, financial stocks, and consumer staples. Though the Oracle of Omaha is fully aware that recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, he also understands that economic downturns don't last very long. He's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio to take advantage of multiyear periods of expansion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合之所以成功，有两个关键原因。首先，它具有很强的周期性，该公司约85%的投资资产与科技股、金融股和必需消费品相关。尽管这位奥马哈先知充分意识到经济衰退是经济周期不可避免的一部分，但他也明白经济衰退不会持续很久。他将伯克希尔的投资组合定位为利用多年的扩张期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other catalyst working in the company's favor is its&nbsp;dividend income. Over the next 12 months, Berkshire Hathaway should collect more than $5 billion in common and preferred dividends, which equates to about a 5% yield, relative to the company's cost basis on its investments. Warren Buffett has demonstrated how easy it is to build wealth on Wall Street by purchasing businesses with clear-cut competitive advantages and not selling.</p><p><blockquote>对该公司有利的另一个催化剂是其股息收入。未来12个月，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司应收取超过50亿美元的普通股和优先股股息，相对于公司投资的成本基础，这相当于约5%的收益率。沃伦·巴菲特已经证明，通过购买具有明显竞争优势的企业而不是出售，在华尔街积累财富是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e58192e80c4f6d82046daca6fcb496\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Trulieve Cannabis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Trulieve大麻</b></blockquote></p><p> If growth stocks are more your thing,marijuana stock<b>Trulieve Cannabis</b>(OTC:TCNNF)&nbsp;has the look of an unstoppable buy if a crash or correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果你更喜欢成长型股票，大麻股票<b>Trulieve大麻</b>（场外交易代码：TCNNF）看起来是一个不可阻挡的买入，如果崩盘或调整来袭。</blockquote></p><p> First of all, we witnessed during the pandemic that cannabis is treated as a non-discretionary good. In other words, people kept buying pot products, no matter how badly the pandemic altered the economic landscape in North America.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们在疫情期间目睹了大麻被视为非自由支配的商品。换句话说，无论疫情如何严重改变北美的经济格局，人们都会继续购买大麻产品。</blockquote></p><p> More specific to Trulieve, it's&nbsp;really differentiated itself&nbsp;from other pot stocks. With most multistate operators (MSOs) setting up shop in well over a dozen legalized U.S. markets, Trulieve focused most of its attention on medical marijuana-legal Florida. Trulieve has 94 operating dispensaries in the Sunshine State, which represents about a quarter of all cannabis retail locations statewide.</p><p><blockquote>更具体地说，Trulieve确实与其他大麻股有所不同。随着大多数多州运营商(MSO)在十几个合法的美国市场开设商店，Trulieve将大部分注意力集中在医用大麻合法的佛罗里达州。Trulieve在阳光之州拥有94家运营药房，约占全州所有大麻零售点的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Saturating one of the largest pot markets in the U.S. has helped the company effectively build up its brand without breaking the bank on the marketing front. As a result, Trulieve Cannabis has been profitable for more than three years.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的大麻市场之一的饱和帮助该公司有效地建立了自己的品牌，而不会在营销方面倾家荡产。因此，Trulieve Cannabis已经盈利三年多了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Trulieve recently completed its all-share acquisition of MSO Harvest Health &amp; Recreation. This deal moves it into new markets, and most importantly, makes it the key player in Arizona, which legalized recreational marijuana in November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Trulieve最近完成了对MSO Harvest Health&amp;Recreation的全股收购。这笔交易将其带入了新的市场，最重要的是，使其成为亚利桑那州的关键参与者，该州于2020年11月将娱乐性大麻合法化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454f3bd12d9f51f0677b0832102292fc\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Viatris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维亚特里斯</b></blockquote></p><p> Want deep-discount value and a market-topping dividend yield? Drug-company<b>Viatris</b>(NASDAQ:VTRS)and its 3.2% yield may well be the unstoppable stock to buy if there's a stock market crash or correction.</p><p><blockquote>想要大幅折扣价值和市场领先的股息收益率？制药公司<b>维亚特里斯</b>（纳斯达克：VTRS）如果股市崩盘或调整，其3.2%的收益率很可能是不可阻挡的买入股票。</blockquote></p><p> Viatris was officially formed less than a year ago by combining Pfizer's established drug unit UpJohn with generic-drug company Mylan. The idea was that the combined entity would be stronger than the two individual units would have ever been.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris于不到一年前正式成立，由辉瑞已成立的药品部门UpJohn与仿制药公司Mylan合并而成。这个想法是，合并后的实体将比两个单独的单位更强大。</blockquote></p><p> As you might imagine, combining two drug juggernauts&nbsp;should yield significant efficiencies. The expectation is for more than $1 billion in annual cost synergies by 2023. Further, Viatris' management team expects to have whittled down the company's debt load from $26 billion, when the combination closed, to $19.5 billion by the end of 2023. Less debt outstanding means more financial flexibility and, potentially, the ability to reignite the company's internal research engine.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，将两种药物巨头结合起来应该会产生显着的效率。预计到2023年，年度成本协同效应将超过10亿美元。此外，Viatris的管理团队预计，到2023年底，公司的债务负担将从合并完成时的260亿美元削减至195亿美元。未偿债务的减少意味着更大的财务灵活性，并有可能重新点燃公司内部研究引擎。</blockquote></p><p> The real beauty of Viatris is the consistency of demand for its products. Since&nbsp;healthcare stocks&nbsp;are highly defensive, a poorly performing stock market won't change the fact that people need prescribed drugs. Viatris' leading generic division is also perfectly positioned to take advantage of an aging U.S. and global population.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris的真正魅力在于对其产品需求的一致性。由于医疗保健股具有很强的防御性，表现不佳的股市不会改变人们需要处方药的事实。Viatris领先的仿制药部门也完全有能力利用美国和全球人口老龄化的优势。</blockquote></p><p> With a forward-year P/E ratio below 4, Viatris has about as a cheap of a multiple as you'll ever see in the healthcare space.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris的远期市盈率低于4，其市盈率几乎是您在医疗保健领域看到的最便宜的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7df57a973eb8047515b9d2de719a53\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海有限公司</b></blockquote></p><p> A fourth unstoppable stock to gobble up if there's a stock market crash or correction is Singapore-based&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE). Sea has&nbsp;three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments&nbsp;that could one day push its valuation to $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整，第四只不可阻挡的股票是新加坡<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）。Sea拥有三个增长异常快速的运营部门，有朝一日可能会将其估值推至1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> First, there's its digital-entertainment segment, which primarily encompasses mobile gaming. Sea ended June with 725 million quarterly active users, 12.7% of which (92.2 million) were paying to play. The average pay-to-play ratio throughout the gaming industry is closer to 2%. Additionally, average bookings per user rose to $1.60 in Q2 from $1.40 in the prior-year period. For the time being, this is the only segment generating positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).</p><p><blockquote>首先是其数字娱乐部门，主要包括移动游戏。截至6月，Sea的季度活跃用户为7.25亿，其中12.7%（9220万）是付费用户。整个游戏行业的平均付费游戏比接近2%。此外，第二季度每位用户的平均预订量从去年同期的1.40美元升至1.60美元。目前，这是唯一一个产生正息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的部门。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Second, Sea has its rapidly growing e-commerce platform, known as Shopee. In the latest quarter, Shopee handled 1.4 billion gross orders (up 127% year over year) and&nbsp;$15 billion in gross merchandise value&nbsp;(GMV). For some context, Shopee handled $10 billion in GMV in the entirety of 2018. The company's annual online retail run rate has sextupled in 2.5 years.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Sea拥有快速增长的电子商务平台Shopee。最近一个季度，Shopee处理了14亿笔总订单（同比增长127%）和150亿美元的商品总价值(GMV)。在某些情况下，Shopee在2018年全年处理了100亿美元的GMV。该公司的年在线零售运行率在2.5年内增长了6倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, its digital financial services segment has 32.7 million paying digital-wallet users and oversaw more than $4.1 billion in payments in the June-ended quarter. Since many of the emerging markets Sea serves are underbanked, digital wallets could be a sneaky long-term growth story for the company.</p><p><blockquote>最后，其数字金融服务部门拥有3270万付费数字钱包用户，在截至6月底的季度中监管了超过41亿美元的支付。由于Sea服务的许多新兴市场银行服务不足，数字钱包对该公司来说可能是一个偷偷摸摸的长期增长故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Unstoppable Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的4只不可阻挡的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Unstoppable Stocks to Buy If There's a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>如果股市崩盘，值得买入的4只不可阻挡的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Double-digit percentage declines in the broader market are more common than investors realize.</li>  <li>There are no shortage of catalysts that could cause a stock market crash or correction.</li>  <li>Buying this quartet of unstoppable companies during a broad-market decline would be a wise move.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大盘两位数的百分比下跌比投资者意识到的更常见。</li><li>不乏可能导致股市崩盘或调整的催化剂。</li><li>在大盘下跌期间收购这四家势不可挡的公司将是明智之举。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> Some investors might not be thrilled with what I'm about to say, but it's simply a matter of allowing historical data do the talking: A stock market crash or correction may be brewing.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能不会对我要说的话感到兴奋，但这只是一个让历史数据说话的问题：股市崩盘或调整可能正在酝酿。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, the benchmark&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>&nbsp;underwent its first correction of at least 5% in 10 months. While nothing is guaranteed on Wall Street, a number of signs appear to be pointing to the growing likelihood of downside for the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>近日，基准<b>标普500</b>经历了10个月内至少5%的首次修正。尽管华尔街没有什么是可以保证的，但一些迹象似乎表明大盘下跌的可能性越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf177a2ce4f54e7ed16e4189edb28a7\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>There are a laundry list of catalysts that could send the market lower</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有一系列催化剂可能会导致市场走低</b></blockquote></p><p> For instance, since the beginning of 1950, there have been 38 double-digit percentage declines in the S&amp;P 500. That equates to one drop of at least 10%, on average, every 1.87 years. We're now more than 1.5 years removed from the chaotic bear market decline that bottomed out during the initial stages of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>例如，自1950年初以来，标普500出现了38次两位数的百分比下降。这相当于平均每1.87年下降至少10%。我们现在距离冠状病毒大流行初期触底的混乱熊市下跌已经过去了1.5年多。</blockquote></p><p> To build on this point, the broader market&nbsp;has responded very similarly&nbsp;following crashes or corrections for the past 60 years. Following each of the previous eight bear markets, excluding the coronavirus crash, there were either one or two declines of 10% in the S&amp;P 500 within three years. What this tells us is that rebounding from a bear market is a process and pretty much never the straight line higher that investors have reveled in for more than 18 months.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，大盘在过去60年的崩盘或调整后做出了非常相似的反应。在之前的八次熊市之后，不包括冠状病毒崩盘，标普500在三年内都有一两次下跌10%。这告诉我们，从熊市中反弹是一个过程，而且几乎不会像投资者18个多月来所陶醉的直线上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Macroeconomic factors and fundamental metrics pose warnings, too. Rapidly rising crude oil and natural-gas prices threaten pocketbooks and could quickly throttle down economic growth following the pandemic-induced recession.</p><p><blockquote>宏观经济因素和基本面指标也发出了警告。原油和天然气价格的快速上涨威胁着人们的钱包，并可能在大流行引发的衰退后迅速抑制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> There's also margin debt, which&nbsp;has climbed at a precipitous pace in 2021. Data from market-analytics company Yardeni Research shows that there have only been three instances since the beginning of 1995 where margin debt rose 60% or more in a single year. The previous two occurred just months before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began.</p><p><blockquote>还有保证金债务，该债务在2021年急剧攀升。市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据显示，自1995年初以来，只有三起保证金债务在一年内上涨60%或以上的情况。前两次发生在互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机开始前几个月。</blockquote></p><p> Even valuations are a concern. The S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits at 37.7, which is well over double its 151-year average of 16.9. Perhaps more worrisome, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E has only crossed above and held 30 on five occasions in 151 years. The previous four instances saw minimum declines of at least 20% after the Shiller P/E ratio peaked.</p><p><blockquote>甚至估值也是一个问题。标普500的席勒市盈率(P/E)为37.7，远高于151年平均水平16.9的两倍多。也许更令人担忧的是，标普500的席勒市盈率在151年里只有五次突破并保持在30以上。在席勒市盈率见顶后，前四次的最低跌幅至少为20%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5907a4556df957bb90a0b8342cf7d9b9\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Crashes and corrections are an opportunity to buy great stocks at a discount</p><p><blockquote>崩盘和调整是以折扣价购买优质股票的机会</blockquote></p><p> But there's another side to this story. Even though stock market corrections occur often, they've always eventually been erased by a bull-market rally. Buying great companies at a discount during a crash or correction and holding those stakes for long periods of time is a recipe to build wealth over time.</p><p><blockquote>但是这个故事还有另一面。尽管股市调整经常发生，但它们最终总是被牛市反弹抹去。在崩盘或调整期间以折扣价购买优秀公司并长期持有这些股份是随着时间的推移积累财富的秘诀。</blockquote></p><p> If a stock market crash or double-digit percentage correction does materialize from this recent uptick in volatility, the following four unstoppable stocks would make for perfect buys.</p><p><blockquote>如果最近波动性上升确实导致股市崩盘或两位数百分比调整，那么以下四只势不可挡的股票将是完美的买入对象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the safest ways to build wealth over the long run is to follow in the footsteps of billionaire investor Warren Buffett. The easiest way to do that is to buy shares of&nbsp;<b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), the conglomerate run by Buffett that's averaged ajaw-dropping annual return of 20%since the beginning of 1965 (an aggregate return of close to 3,300,000%).</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，积累财富最安全的方法之一是追随亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特的脚步。最简单的方法是购买<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.A）（纽约证券交易所代码：BRK.B），巴菲特经营的企业集团，自1965年初以来的平均年回报率为令人瞠目结舌的20%（总回报率接近3,300,000%）。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is successful for two key reasons. First,it's highly cyclical, with about 85% of the company's invested assets tied up in tech stocks, financial stocks, and consumer staples. Though the Oracle of Omaha is fully aware that recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, he also understands that economic downturns don't last very long. He's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio to take advantage of multiyear periods of expansion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资组合之所以成功，有两个关键原因。首先，它具有很强的周期性，该公司约85%的投资资产与科技股、金融股和必需消费品相关。尽管这位奥马哈先知充分意识到经济衰退是经济周期不可避免的一部分，但他也明白经济衰退不会持续很久。他将伯克希尔的投资组合定位为利用多年的扩张期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other catalyst working in the company's favor is its&nbsp;dividend income. Over the next 12 months, Berkshire Hathaway should collect more than $5 billion in common and preferred dividends, which equates to about a 5% yield, relative to the company's cost basis on its investments. Warren Buffett has demonstrated how easy it is to build wealth on Wall Street by purchasing businesses with clear-cut competitive advantages and not selling.</p><p><blockquote>对该公司有利的另一个催化剂是其股息收入。未来12个月，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司应收取超过50亿美元的普通股和优先股股息，相对于公司投资的成本基础，这相当于约5%的收益率。沃伦·巴菲特已经证明，通过购买具有明显竞争优势的企业而不是出售，在华尔街积累财富是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e58192e80c4f6d82046daca6fcb496\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Trulieve Cannabis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Trulieve大麻</b></blockquote></p><p> If growth stocks are more your thing,marijuana stock<b>Trulieve Cannabis</b>(OTC:TCNNF)&nbsp;has the look of an unstoppable buy if a crash or correction strikes.</p><p><blockquote>如果你更喜欢成长型股票，大麻股票<b>Trulieve大麻</b>（场外交易代码：TCNNF）看起来是一个不可阻挡的买入，如果崩盘或调整来袭。</blockquote></p><p> First of all, we witnessed during the pandemic that cannabis is treated as a non-discretionary good. In other words, people kept buying pot products, no matter how badly the pandemic altered the economic landscape in North America.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们在疫情期间目睹了大麻被视为非自由支配的商品。换句话说，无论疫情如何严重改变北美的经济格局，人们都会继续购买大麻产品。</blockquote></p><p> More specific to Trulieve, it's&nbsp;really differentiated itself&nbsp;from other pot stocks. With most multistate operators (MSOs) setting up shop in well over a dozen legalized U.S. markets, Trulieve focused most of its attention on medical marijuana-legal Florida. Trulieve has 94 operating dispensaries in the Sunshine State, which represents about a quarter of all cannabis retail locations statewide.</p><p><blockquote>更具体地说，Trulieve确实与其他大麻股有所不同。随着大多数多州运营商(MSO)在十几个合法的美国市场开设商店，Trulieve将大部分注意力集中在医用大麻合法的佛罗里达州。Trulieve在阳光之州拥有94家运营药房，约占全州所有大麻零售点的四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Saturating one of the largest pot markets in the U.S. has helped the company effectively build up its brand without breaking the bank on the marketing front. As a result, Trulieve Cannabis has been profitable for more than three years.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的大麻市场之一的饱和帮助该公司有效地建立了自己的品牌，而不会在营销方面倾家荡产。因此，Trulieve Cannabis已经盈利三年多了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, Trulieve recently completed its all-share acquisition of MSO Harvest Health &amp; Recreation. This deal moves it into new markets, and most importantly, makes it the key player in Arizona, which legalized recreational marijuana in November 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Trulieve最近完成了对MSO Harvest Health&amp;Recreation的全股收购。这笔交易将其带入了新的市场，最重要的是，使其成为亚利桑那州的关键参与者，该州于2020年11月将娱乐性大麻合法化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454f3bd12d9f51f0677b0832102292fc\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Viatris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维亚特里斯</b></blockquote></p><p> Want deep-discount value and a market-topping dividend yield? Drug-company<b>Viatris</b>(NASDAQ:VTRS)and its 3.2% yield may well be the unstoppable stock to buy if there's a stock market crash or correction.</p><p><blockquote>想要大幅折扣价值和市场领先的股息收益率？制药公司<b>维亚特里斯</b>（纳斯达克：VTRS）如果股市崩盘或调整，其3.2%的收益率很可能是不可阻挡的买入股票。</blockquote></p><p> Viatris was officially formed less than a year ago by combining Pfizer's established drug unit UpJohn with generic-drug company Mylan. The idea was that the combined entity would be stronger than the two individual units would have ever been.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris于不到一年前正式成立，由辉瑞已成立的药品部门UpJohn与仿制药公司Mylan合并而成。这个想法是，合并后的实体将比两个单独的单位更强大。</blockquote></p><p> As you might imagine, combining two drug juggernauts&nbsp;should yield significant efficiencies. The expectation is for more than $1 billion in annual cost synergies by 2023. Further, Viatris' management team expects to have whittled down the company's debt load from $26 billion, when the combination closed, to $19.5 billion by the end of 2023. Less debt outstanding means more financial flexibility and, potentially, the ability to reignite the company's internal research engine.</p><p><blockquote>正如您可能想象的那样，将两种药物巨头结合起来应该会产生显着的效率。预计到2023年，年度成本协同效应将超过10亿美元。此外，Viatris的管理团队预计，到2023年底，公司的债务负担将从合并完成时的260亿美元削减至195亿美元。未偿债务的减少意味着更大的财务灵活性，并有可能重新点燃公司内部研究引擎。</blockquote></p><p> The real beauty of Viatris is the consistency of demand for its products. Since&nbsp;healthcare stocks&nbsp;are highly defensive, a poorly performing stock market won't change the fact that people need prescribed drugs. Viatris' leading generic division is also perfectly positioned to take advantage of an aging U.S. and global population.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris的真正魅力在于对其产品需求的一致性。由于医疗保健股具有很强的防御性，表现不佳的股市不会改变人们需要处方药的事实。Viatris领先的仿制药部门也完全有能力利用美国和全球人口老龄化的优势。</blockquote></p><p> With a forward-year P/E ratio below 4, Viatris has about as a cheap of a multiple as you'll ever see in the healthcare space.</p><p><blockquote>Viatris的远期市盈率低于4，其市盈率几乎是您在医疗保健领域看到的最便宜的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7df57a973eb8047515b9d2de719a53\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海有限公司</b></blockquote></p><p> A fourth unstoppable stock to gobble up if there's a stock market crash or correction is Singapore-based&nbsp;<b>Sea Limited</b>(NYSE:SE). Sea has&nbsp;three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments&nbsp;that could one day push its valuation to $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>如果股市崩盘或调整，第四只不可阻挡的股票是新加坡<b>海有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SE）。Sea拥有三个增长异常快速的运营部门，有朝一日可能会将其估值推至1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> First, there's its digital-entertainment segment, which primarily encompasses mobile gaming. Sea ended June with 725 million quarterly active users, 12.7% of which (92.2 million) were paying to play. The average pay-to-play ratio throughout the gaming industry is closer to 2%. Additionally, average bookings per user rose to $1.60 in Q2 from $1.40 in the prior-year period. For the time being, this is the only segment generating positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).</p><p><blockquote>首先是其数字娱乐部门，主要包括移动游戏。截至6月，Sea的季度活跃用户为7.25亿，其中12.7%（9220万）是付费用户。整个游戏行业的平均付费游戏比接近2%。此外，第二季度每位用户的平均预订量从去年同期的1.40美元升至1.60美元。目前，这是唯一一个产生正息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)的部门。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Second, Sea has its rapidly growing e-commerce platform, known as Shopee. In the latest quarter, Shopee handled 1.4 billion gross orders (up 127% year over year) and&nbsp;$15 billion in gross merchandise value&nbsp;(GMV). For some context, Shopee handled $10 billion in GMV in the entirety of 2018. The company's annual online retail run rate has sextupled in 2.5 years.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Sea拥有快速增长的电子商务平台Shopee。最近一个季度，Shopee处理了14亿笔总订单（同比增长127%）和150亿美元的商品总价值(GMV)。在某些情况下，Shopee在2018年全年处理了100亿美元的GMV。该公司的年在线零售运行率在2.5年内增长了6倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, its digital financial services segment has 32.7 million paying digital-wallet users and oversaw more than $4.1 billion in payments in the June-ended quarter. Since many of the emerging markets Sea serves are underbanked, digital wallets could be a sneaky long-term growth story for the company.</p><p><blockquote>最后，其数字金融服务部门拥有3270万付费数字钱包用户，在截至6月底的季度中监管了超过41亿美元的支付。由于Sea服务的许多新兴市场银行服务不足，数字钱包对该公司来说可能是一个偷偷摸摸的长期增长故事。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/14/4-unstoppable-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/14/4-unstoppable-stocks-to-buy-if-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184483169","content_text":"Key Points\n\nDouble-digit percentage declines in the broader market are more common than investors realize.\nThere are no shortage of catalysts that could cause a stock market crash or correction.\nBuying this quartet of unstoppable companies during a broad-market decline would be a wise move.\n\n\nSome investors might not be thrilled with what I'm about to say, but it's simply a matter of allowing historical data do the talking: A stock market crash or correction may be brewing.\nRecently, the benchmark S&P 500 underwent its first correction of at least 5% in 10 months. While nothing is guaranteed on Wall Street, a number of signs appear to be pointing to the growing likelihood of downside for the broader market.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThere are a laundry list of catalysts that could send the market lower\nFor instance, since the beginning of 1950, there have been 38 double-digit percentage declines in the S&P 500. That equates to one drop of at least 10%, on average, every 1.87 years. We're now more than 1.5 years removed from the chaotic bear market decline that bottomed out during the initial stages of the coronavirus pandemic.\nTo build on this point, the broader market has responded very similarly following crashes or corrections for the past 60 years. Following each of the previous eight bear markets, excluding the coronavirus crash, there were either one or two declines of 10% in the S&P 500 within three years. What this tells us is that rebounding from a bear market is a process and pretty much never the straight line higher that investors have reveled in for more than 18 months.\nMacroeconomic factors and fundamental metrics pose warnings, too. Rapidly rising crude oil and natural-gas prices threaten pocketbooks and could quickly throttle down economic growth following the pandemic-induced recession.\nThere's also margin debt, which has climbed at a precipitous pace in 2021. Data from market-analytics company Yardeni Research shows that there have only been three instances since the beginning of 1995 where margin debt rose 60% or more in a single year. The previous two occurred just months before the dot-com bubble burst and the financial crisis began.\nEven valuations are a concern. The S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits at 37.7, which is well over double its 151-year average of 16.9. Perhaps more worrisome, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E has only crossed above and held 30 on five occasions in 151 years. The previous four instances saw minimum declines of at least 20% after the Shiller P/E ratio peaked.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nCrashes and corrections are an opportunity to buy great stocks at a discount\nBut there's another side to this story. Even though stock market corrections occur often, they've always eventually been erased by a bull-market rally. Buying great companies at a discount during a crash or correction and holding those stakes for long periods of time is a recipe to build wealth over time.\nIf a stock market crash or double-digit percentage correction does materialize from this recent uptick in volatility, the following four unstoppable stocks would make for perfect buys.\nBerkshire Hathaway\nOne of the safest ways to build wealth over the long run is to follow in the footsteps of billionaire investor Warren Buffett. The easiest way to do that is to buy shares of Berkshire Hathaway(NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B), the conglomerate run by Buffett that's averaged ajaw-dropping annual return of 20%since the beginning of 1965 (an aggregate return of close to 3,300,000%).\nBerkshire Hathaway's portfolio is successful for two key reasons. First,it's highly cyclical, with about 85% of the company's invested assets tied up in tech stocks, financial stocks, and consumer staples. Though the Oracle of Omaha is fully aware that recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, he also understands that economic downturns don't last very long. He's positioned Berkshire's investment portfolio to take advantage of multiyear periods of expansion.\nThe other catalyst working in the company's favor is its dividend income. Over the next 12 months, Berkshire Hathaway should collect more than $5 billion in common and preferred dividends, which equates to about a 5% yield, relative to the company's cost basis on its investments. Warren Buffett has demonstrated how easy it is to build wealth on Wall Street by purchasing businesses with clear-cut competitive advantages and not selling.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nTrulieve Cannabis\nIf growth stocks are more your thing,marijuana stockTrulieve Cannabis(OTC:TCNNF) has the look of an unstoppable buy if a crash or correction strikes.\nFirst of all, we witnessed during the pandemic that cannabis is treated as a non-discretionary good. In other words, people kept buying pot products, no matter how badly the pandemic altered the economic landscape in North America.\nMore specific to Trulieve, it's really differentiated itself from other pot stocks. With most multistate operators (MSOs) setting up shop in well over a dozen legalized U.S. markets, Trulieve focused most of its attention on medical marijuana-legal Florida. Trulieve has 94 operating dispensaries in the Sunshine State, which represents about a quarter of all cannabis retail locations statewide.\nSaturating one of the largest pot markets in the U.S. has helped the company effectively build up its brand without breaking the bank on the marketing front. As a result, Trulieve Cannabis has been profitable for more than three years.\nWhat's more, Trulieve recently completed its all-share acquisition of MSO Harvest Health & Recreation. This deal moves it into new markets, and most importantly, makes it the key player in Arizona, which legalized recreational marijuana in November 2020.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nViatris\nWant deep-discount value and a market-topping dividend yield? Drug-companyViatris(NASDAQ:VTRS)and its 3.2% yield may well be the unstoppable stock to buy if there's a stock market crash or correction.\nViatris was officially formed less than a year ago by combining Pfizer's established drug unit UpJohn with generic-drug company Mylan. The idea was that the combined entity would be stronger than the two individual units would have ever been.\nAs you might imagine, combining two drug juggernauts should yield significant efficiencies. The expectation is for more than $1 billion in annual cost synergies by 2023. Further, Viatris' management team expects to have whittled down the company's debt load from $26 billion, when the combination closed, to $19.5 billion by the end of 2023. Less debt outstanding means more financial flexibility and, potentially, the ability to reignite the company's internal research engine.\nThe real beauty of Viatris is the consistency of demand for its products. Since healthcare stocks are highly defensive, a poorly performing stock market won't change the fact that people need prescribed drugs. Viatris' leading generic division is also perfectly positioned to take advantage of an aging U.S. and global population.\nWith a forward-year P/E ratio below 4, Viatris has about as a cheap of a multiple as you'll ever see in the healthcare space.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nSea Limited\nA fourth unstoppable stock to gobble up if there's a stock market crash or correction is Singapore-based Sea Limited(NYSE:SE). Sea has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments that could one day push its valuation to $1 trillion.\nFirst, there's its digital-entertainment segment, which primarily encompasses mobile gaming. Sea ended June with 725 million quarterly active users, 12.7% of which (92.2 million) were paying to play. The average pay-to-play ratio throughout the gaming industry is closer to 2%. Additionally, average bookings per user rose to $1.60 in Q2 from $1.40 in the prior-year period. For the time being, this is the only segment generating positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).\nSecond, Sea has its rapidly growing e-commerce platform, known as Shopee. In the latest quarter, Shopee handled 1.4 billion gross orders (up 127% year over year) and $15 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV). For some context, Shopee handled $10 billion in GMV in the entirety of 2018. The company's annual online retail run rate has sextupled in 2.5 years.\nLastly, its digital financial services segment has 32.7 million paying digital-wallet users and oversaw more than $4.1 billion in payments in the June-ended quarter. Since many of the emerging markets Sea serves are underbanked, digital wallets could be a sneaky long-term growth story for the company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"SE":0.9,"VTRS":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"TCNNF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140896237,"gmtCreate":1625644320429,"gmtModify":1633938780616,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140896237","repostId":"1163143630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161345387,"gmtCreate":1623907255749,"gmtModify":1634026006583,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161345387","repostId":"2143794095","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":692123799,"gmtCreate":1640877952218,"gmtModify":1640877979580,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692123799","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，名为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW（NYSE：BABA）的Lazada、印度尼西亚的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差异，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691637739,"gmtCreate":1640182118314,"gmtModify":1640182330297,"author":{"id":"3575328629727225","authorId":"3575328629727225","name":"TradingVest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3055a5262208b8d6fdb51c32c0b5aa1e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575328629727225","idStr":"3575328629727225"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691637739","repostId":"1145487385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}