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Jason138

Jason138

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2021-06-10

Hints : market crash soon?

U.S. stocks end lower ahead of inflation report<blockquote>美国股市在通胀报告发布前收低</blockquote>

2021-06-08

FYI

Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-06-08

Nice

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2021-06-06

Hmmm

U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>

2021-06-06

Unbelievable

The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>

2021-06-04

Believe still be good for value investing

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-02

Buy buy. Don’t wait anymore

AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote>

2021-05-28

Good job

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2021-05-27

Hmmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-26

Y not. Crash more better

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2021-05-25

Really effective or not

Moderna shares once gained more than 4%<blockquote>Moderna股价一度上涨超过4%</blockquote>

2021-05-23

Hmmmm

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-20

For the first time. Lolz

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2021-05-19

Just buy at dip. Hold on. Then sell it

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2021-05-17

Already tip top liao

Walmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote>

2021-05-13

Fear fear fear. Good bargain time

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2021-05-11

Bargain coming soon

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2021-05-11

Please push up the oil price. Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-10

$People's United(PBCT)$Good return. Hehe

2021-05-09

Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.

U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>

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Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants a","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 华尔街周三收盘走低，市场参与者等待通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时可能收紧鸽派货币政策的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.</p><p><blockquote>零售业 “梗股 ”热潮有增无减。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指均扭转了早些时候的涨幅，但在缺乏任何明确的市场催化剂的情况下仍处于区间区间。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”</p><p><blockquote>“印第安纳州哈蒙德市地平线投资服务公司（Horizon Investment Services）首席执行官查克-卡尔森（Chuck Carlson）说：”新闻方面有一个平静期。“我们正经历财报期，人们都在等待明天的通胀数据，因此市场喜忧参半，主要股指的表现并不理想。”</blockquote></p><p> Heavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.</p><p><blockquote>严重做空的模因股票延续了社交媒体推动的涨势，Aethlon Medical 飙升 388.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Reddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>Reddit chatter 还帮助监狱运营商 GEO Group 和 World Wrestling Entertainment 的股价分别上涨了 38.4% 和 10.9%。</blockquote></p><p> However, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath &amp; Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Vanda Research 的数据，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地确定下一个游戏驿站公司（引发这一现象的股票），零售量已恢复到 1 月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔森补充说：”这感觉就像另类股票市场。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时机进场，你就能取得成功，但随着时间的推移，很难取得成功。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该过多地了解大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在财报公布前任命 Matt Furlong 为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损每股 1.01 美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>受益于基础设施交易的工业股下跌了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在芯片供应持续干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现在提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城东南半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部（Labor Department）将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在经济复苏的供需失衡情况下对通胀做出另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否像美联储所说的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.68点，跌幅0.44%，至34,447.14点；标普500下跌 7.71 点，跌幅 0.18%，报 4,219.55 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 13.16 点，跌幅 0.09%，至 13,911.75 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准国债收益率自 5 月份以来首次跌破 1.5%，给对利率敏感的金融股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预测，导致其股价下跌 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司（Merck &amp; Co）宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约 12 亿美元的价格购买约 170 万个疗程的 COVID-19 实验性治疗药物 molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.12 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.13 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 38 个 52 周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 115.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 107.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Beyond closed lower.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Clover Health、AMC院线和Bed Bath &amp; Beyond等其他模因股票收盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Retail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Vanda Research 的数据，随着社交媒体论坛争先恐后地确定下一个游戏驿站公司（引发这一现象的股票），零售量已恢复到 1 月份的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> “It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔森补充说：”这感觉就像另类股票市场。这是猜测的迹象。如果你在正确的时机进场，你就能取得成功，但随着时间的推移，很难取得成功。”</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为你不应该过多地了解大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> GameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站在财报公布前任命 Matt Furlong 为新任首席执行官，财报显示季度亏损每股 1.01 美元。其股价在盘后交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.</p><p><blockquote>在与参议员雪莱·卡皮托的一对一会谈破裂后，美国总统乔·拜登在正在进行的谈判中改变了路线，以就基础设施支出达成两党协议。</blockquote></p><p> Industrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.</p><p><blockquote>受益于基础设施交易的工业股下跌了 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Washington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿立法者通过了一项全面法案，旨在提高美国与中国技术竞争的能力，在芯片供应持续干旱的情况下为研究和半导体生产提供资金。该法案现在提交众议院。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，费城东南半导体指数仍下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部（Labor Department）将于周四发布的消费者价格指数报告将在经济复苏的供需失衡情况下对通胀做出另一种看法，因为投资者将确定通胀压力是否像美联储所说的那样是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&amp;P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.68点，跌幅0.44%，至34,447.14点；标普500下跌 7.71 点，跌幅 0.18%，报 4,219.55 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 13.16 点，跌幅 0.09%，至 13,911.75 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare gained the most.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Benchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.</p><p><blockquote>基准国债收益率自 5 月份以来首次跌破 1.5%，给对利率敏感的金融股带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤公司未达到季度利润预期，并下调了全年盈利预测，导致其股价下跌 6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Drugmaker Merck &amp; Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.</p><p><blockquote>制药商默克公司（Merck &amp; Co）宣布，如果该药物获得监管部门批准，美国政府已同意以约 12 亿美元的价格购买约 170 万个疗程的 COVID-19 实验性治疗药物 molnupiravir。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.12 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.13 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下 38 个 52 周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下126个新高和14个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 115.3 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 107.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","AEMD":"Aethlon Medical Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-u-s-stocks-end-lower-ahead-of-inflation-report-idUSL2N2NR2UG","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142408805","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street ended a see-saw session lower on Wednesday as market participants awaited inflation data for clues as to when the U.S. Federal Reserve might tighten its dovish monetary policy.\nThe retail “meme stock” craze continued unabated.\nAll three major U.S. stock indexes reversed earlier gains, but remained range-bound in the absence of any clear market catalysts.\n“There’s a lull period in terms of news,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. “We’re through earnings period and people are waiting for inflation numbers tomorrow, so you have a mixed market where the major averages aren’t doing much of anything.”\nHeavily shorted meme stocks extended their social media-driven rally, with Aethlon Medical soaring 388.2%.\nReddit chatter also helped to lift shares of prison operator GEO Group and World Wrestling Entertainment 38.4% and 10.9%, respectively.\nHowever, other meme stocks such as Clover Health, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond closed lower.\nRetail volume has returned to its January peak, according to Vanda Research, as social media forums scramble to identify the next GameStop Corp, the stock that kicked off the phenomenon.\n“It feels like alternative stock market,” Carlson added. It’s an indication of speculation. You can be successful if you get in at the right moment but it’s very difficult to play successfully over time.”\n“I don’t think you should read too much regarding the broader market.”\nGameStop named Matt Furlong as its new CEO ahead of its earnings report, which showed a quarterly loss of $1.01 per share. Its shares fell over 4% in after-hours trading.\nU.S. President Joe Biden changed course in ongoing negotiations to reach a bipartisan agreement on infrastructure spending after one-on-one talks with Senator Shelley Capito broke down.\nIndustrial stocks, which stand to benefit from an infrastructure deal, slid by 1%.\nWashington lawmakers passed a sweeping bill designed to boost the United States’ ability to compete against Chinese technology, providing funds for research and semiconductor production amid an ongoing chip supply drought. The bill now heads to the House of Representatives.\nEven so, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slipped 0.4%.\nThe Labor Department’s consumer price index report due out Thursday will provide another take on inflation amid the recovery’s demand/supply imbalance as investors determine whether inflationary pressures, as the Fed asserts, will be transitory.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.68 points, or 0.44%, to 34,447.14; the S&P 500 lost 7.71 points, or 0.18%, at 4,219.55; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.16 points, or 0.09%, to 13,911.75.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare gained the most.\nBenchmark Treasury yields dropped below 1.5% for the first time since May, weighing on interest-sensitive financials.\nCampbell Soup Co missed quarterly profit expectations and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, sending its shares down 6.5%.\nDrugmaker Merck & Co rose 2.3% on the heels of its announcement the U.S. government had agreed to buy about 1.7 million courses of the company’s experimental COVID-19 treatment, molnupiravir, for about $1.2 billion, if the drug meets regulatory approval.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.13-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 126 new highs and 14 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 11.53 billion shares, compared with the 10.74 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AEMD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117425152,"gmtCreate":1623158547176,"gmtModify":1634036350651,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FYI","listText":"FYI","text":"FYI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117425152","repostId":"1134112696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134112696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623153084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134112696?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 19:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134112696","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 8) U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the o","content":"<p>(June 8)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.</p><p><blockquote>（6月8日）美国周二股票期货涨跌互现，由于投资者等待贸易赤字规模数据，道琼斯指数在开盘时有望不温不火地下滑。</blockquote></p><p>Futures tied to the broad S&amp;P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500综合指数挂钩的期货在涨跌之间波动。道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌 0.2%。周一， 蓝筹股指数短暂攀升至历史新高， 收盘下跌0.4%。纳斯达克 100 指数期货小幅上涨 0.2%，表明科技股涨幅疲软。</blockquote></p><p>At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:52，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 18 点，跌幅 0.05%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 5.25 点，跌幅 0.12%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 56.25 点，跌幅 0.41%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34abbee54469fe0e570dce762d9a8f6a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>At 7:52 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 7:52</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Stocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个交易日，由于美国经济快速反弹以及华盛顿和美联储的大力支持，股市一直在区间波动，指数徘徊在创纪录水平附近。最近几周的市场走势缓解了对通货膨胀的担忧。投资者表示，他们正在接受一段动荡的交易时期，同时等待有关消费者价格大幅上涨是否会转瞬即逝的新线索。</blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国4月份贸易逆差从上月创纪录的750亿美元收窄至689亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易数据公布后，股指期货持平至小幅走高。</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f387907a1739ecc654e10c7d6dc8135\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>At 8:33 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 8:33</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>1)&nbsp;Stitch Fix(SFIX)</b> – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）缝合固定（SFIX）</b>– Stitch Fix 第一季度每股亏损 18 美分，低于分析师预期的每股亏损 27 美分。这家在线服装造型公司的收入高于预期。Stitch Fix 还发布了乐观的预测，其活跃客户群与一年前相比增长了 20%。股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>2)&nbsp;Contango Oil &amp; Gas(MCF) </b>– The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) 石油和天然气期货 (MCF)</b>– 该能源生产商同意通过全股票交易与 KKR (KKR) 的独立能源业务合并。合并后的公司初始市值约为48亿美元。Contango 股价在盘前交易中上涨 10.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>3)&nbsp;Coupa Software(COUP) </b>– Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Coupa软件（COUP）</b>– Coupa 公布的季度收益为每股 7 美分，而华尔街预测为每股亏损 19 美分。收入超出预期，这家财务软件公司也发布了乐观的前景。尽管数据乐观，Coupa 股价在盘前交易中仍下跌 9.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>4)&nbsp;Thor Industries(THO)</b> – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) 雷神工业 (THO)</b>– 这家休闲车制造商的第三财季营收和利润均超出预期，其股价在盘前上涨 3.4%。与一年前相比，销售额增加了一倍多，该公司表示没有看到需求放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p><b>5)&nbsp;Chico’s FAS(CHS) </b>– Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><b>5) 奇科的FAS(CHS)</b>- Chico's 在盘前大涨 6.6%，此前这家服装零售商表示正在采取一切适当措施改善业绩并增加股东价值。该声明是对激进投资者巴林顿资本（Barington Capital）致管理层的一封信的回应。另外，Chico's 公布的季度收益和销售额超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- 这家云计算公司的股价在盘前下跌了 1.7%，但较之前的低点有所回落，原因是互联网中断影响了快速备份的网站。停电发生后不久，Fastly 表示已经发现了问题，并正在实施修复措施。</blockquote></p><p><b>7)&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) </b>– The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 该汽车制造商 5 月份在该市场交付了 33,463 辆中国制造的汽车，比 4 月份生产受到维护停工影响时增长了 29%。特斯拉盘前上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>8)&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）AMC院线（AMC）</b>- 在社交媒体推动电影院运营商股价上涨的情况下，AMC 内部人士一直在抛售股票。根据分析公司 InsiderScore 对内部人士文件进行的一项研究，自 5 月 28 日以来，已有 7 名 AMC 内部人士出售了部分股份，其中 9 名内部人士在本季度进行了出售，但首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 不在其中。2020年没有AMC内幕销售。AMC 盘前上涨 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>9)&nbsp;Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b> – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.</p><p><blockquote><b>9) Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b>– Marvell 第一季度的营收和利润均超出华尔街预期，股价在盘前交易中上涨 5.5%。这家芯片制造商还预计其本季度收入将首次超过 10 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>10)&nbsp;Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) </b>– The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP)</b>- 这家饮料公司宣布代表食品生产商和 Keurig Dr Pepper 股东亿滋国际（MDLZ）二次发行 2800 万股普通股后，其股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。Keurig Dr Pepper 不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>11)&nbsp;Vail Resorts(MTN) </b>– Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.</p><p><blockquote><b>11) 韦尔度假村（MTN）</b>– 维尔度假村每股收益超出预期 18 美分，季度利润为每股 6.72 美元。该度假村运营商也看到了收入的最高预测。Vail 表示，与 2019 年大流行前的业绩相比，通行证销售额按单位计算增长了 50%，按美元计算增长了 33%，因为该公司将季票销售价格下调了 20%。</blockquote></p><p><b>12)&nbsp;Etsy(ETSY)</b> – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) Etsy（Etsy）</b>– Etsy 宣布私下发行 10 亿美元的可转换优先票据，在线工艺品市场计划将所得款项用于股票回购和一般企业用途。Etsy在盘前交易中下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</b></blockquote></p><p>The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote></p><p>With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.</p><p><blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote></p><p>They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides our<b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p>For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:</p><p><blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业如何只有在债券收益率下降时表现良好：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p>So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The Leuthold Group</p><p><blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote></p><p>And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.</p><p><blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote></p><p>“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote></p><p>He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”</p><p><blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 19:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 8)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.</p><p><blockquote>（6月8日）美国周二股票期货涨跌互现，由于投资者等待贸易赤字规模数据，道琼斯指数在开盘时有望不温不火地下滑。</blockquote></p><p>Futures tied to the broad S&amp;P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500综合指数挂钩的期货在涨跌之间波动。道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌 0.2%。周一， 蓝筹股指数短暂攀升至历史新高， 收盘下跌0.4%。纳斯达克 100 指数期货小幅上涨 0.2%，表明科技股涨幅疲软。</blockquote></p><p>At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:52，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 18 点，跌幅 0.05%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 5.25 点，跌幅 0.12%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 56.25 点，跌幅 0.41%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34abbee54469fe0e570dce762d9a8f6a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>At 7:52 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 7:52</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Stocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个交易日，由于美国经济快速反弹以及华盛顿和美联储的大力支持，股市一直在区间波动，指数徘徊在创纪录水平附近。最近几周的市场走势缓解了对通货膨胀的担忧。投资者表示，他们正在接受一段动荡的交易时期，同时等待有关消费者价格大幅上涨是否会转瞬即逝的新线索。</blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国4月份贸易逆差从上月创纪录的750亿美元收窄至689亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易数据公布后，股指期货持平至小幅走高。</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f387907a1739ecc654e10c7d6dc8135\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>At 8:33 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 8:33</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>1)&nbsp;Stitch Fix(SFIX)</b> – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）缝合固定（SFIX）</b>– Stitch Fix 第一季度每股亏损 18 美分，低于分析师预期的每股亏损 27 美分。这家在线服装造型公司的收入高于预期。Stitch Fix 还发布了乐观的预测，其活跃客户群与一年前相比增长了 20%。股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>2)&nbsp;Contango Oil &amp; Gas(MCF) </b>– The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) 石油和天然气期货 (MCF)</b>– 该能源生产商同意通过全股票交易与 KKR (KKR) 的独立能源业务合并。合并后的公司初始市值约为48亿美元。Contango 股价在盘前交易中上涨 10.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>3)&nbsp;Coupa Software(COUP) </b>– Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Coupa软件（COUP）</b>– Coupa 公布的季度收益为每股 7 美分，而华尔街预测为每股亏损 19 美分。收入超出预期，这家财务软件公司也发布了乐观的前景。尽管数据乐观，Coupa 股价在盘前交易中仍下跌 9.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>4)&nbsp;Thor Industries(THO)</b> – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) 雷神工业 (THO)</b>– 这家休闲车制造商的第三财季营收和利润均超出预期，其股价在盘前上涨 3.4%。与一年前相比，销售额增加了一倍多，该公司表示没有看到需求放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p><b>5)&nbsp;Chico’s FAS(CHS) </b>– Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><b>5) 奇科的FAS(CHS)</b>- Chico's 在盘前大涨 6.6%，此前这家服装零售商表示正在采取一切适当措施改善业绩并增加股东价值。该声明是对激进投资者巴林顿资本（Barington Capital）致管理层的一封信的回应。另外，Chico's 公布的季度收益和销售额超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- 这家云计算公司的股价在盘前下跌了 1.7%，但较之前的低点有所回落，原因是互联网中断影响了快速备份的网站。停电发生后不久，Fastly 表示已经发现了问题，并正在实施修复措施。</blockquote></p><p><b>7)&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) </b>– The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 该汽车制造商 5 月份在该市场交付了 33,463 辆中国制造的汽车，比 4 月份生产受到维护停工影响时增长了 29%。特斯拉盘前上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>8)&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）AMC院线（AMC）</b>- 在社交媒体推动电影院运营商股价上涨的情况下，AMC 内部人士一直在抛售股票。根据分析公司 InsiderScore 对内部人士文件进行的一项研究，自 5 月 28 日以来，已有 7 名 AMC 内部人士出售了部分股份，其中 9 名内部人士在本季度进行了出售，但首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 不在其中。2020年没有AMC内幕销售。AMC 盘前上涨 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>9)&nbsp;Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b> – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.</p><p><blockquote><b>9) Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b>– Marvell 第一季度的营收和利润均超出华尔街预期，股价在盘前交易中上涨 5.5%。这家芯片制造商还预计其本季度收入将首次超过 10 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>10)&nbsp;Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) </b>– The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP)</b>- 这家饮料公司宣布代表食品生产商和 Keurig Dr Pepper 股东亿滋国际（MDLZ）二次发行 2800 万股普通股后，其股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。Keurig Dr Pepper 不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>11)&nbsp;Vail Resorts(MTN) </b>– Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.</p><p><blockquote><b>11) 韦尔度假村（MTN）</b>– 维尔度假村每股收益超出预期 18 美分，季度利润为每股 6.72 美元。该度假村运营商也看到了收入的最高预测。Vail 表示，与 2019 年大流行前的业绩相比，通行证销售额按单位计算增长了 50%，按美元计算增长了 33%，因为该公司将季票销售价格下调了 20%。</blockquote></p><p><b>12)&nbsp;Etsy(ETSY)</b> – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) Etsy（Etsy）</b>– Etsy 宣布私下发行 10 亿美元的可转换优先票据，在线工艺品市场计划将所得款项用于股票回购和一般企业用途。Etsy在盘前交易中下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</b></blockquote></p><p>The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote></p><p>With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.</p><p><blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote></p><p>They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides our<b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p>For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:</p><p><blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业如何只有在债券收益率下降时表现良好：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p>So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The Leuthold Group</p><p><blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote></p><p>And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.</p><p><blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote></p><p>“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote></p><p>He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”</p><p><blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134112696","content_text":"(June 8) U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.Futures tied to the broad S&P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.At 7:52 a.m. ETStocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.At 8:33 a.m. ETStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:1) Stitch Fix(SFIX) – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.2) Contango Oil & Gas(MCF) – The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.3) Coupa Software(COUP) – Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.4) Thor Industries(THO) – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.5) Chico’s FAS(CHS) – Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.6) Fastly(FSLY) – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.7) Tesla(TSLA) – The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.8) AMC Entertainment(AMC) – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.9) Marvell Technology(MRVL) – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) – The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.11) Vail Resorts(MTN) – Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.12) Etsy(ETSY) – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:The Leuthold GroupSo should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”The Leuthold GroupThe Leuthold GroupAnd the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114495142,"gmtCreate":1623084928586,"gmtModify":1634037106189,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114495142","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115200634,"gmtCreate":1622992976028,"gmtModify":1634096359563,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115200634","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BZ":"BOSS直聘","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"DIBS":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"LFST":0.9,"ZME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112739365,"gmtCreate":1622925161957,"gmtModify":1634096925419,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unbelievable&nbsp;","listText":"Unbelievable&nbsp;","text":"Unbelievable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112739365","repostId":"1162130057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162130057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622862397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162130057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162130057","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks hav","content":"<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162130057","content_text":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided\nGETTY IMAGES\nStock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.\nGoing forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”\nBy definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.\nSuch slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:\n\nValuation changes: The S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.\nIncreasing profit margins: The S&P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nNet buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.\n\nTo appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.\nProjecting the future\nThe picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.\nMore likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.\nOne can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.\nOne measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.\n\nFor example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.\n“The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.\nThe bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116280807,"gmtCreate":1622803622409,"gmtModify":1634097866618,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Believe still be good for value investing&nbsp;","listText":"Believe still be good for value investing&nbsp;","text":"Believe still be good for value investing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116280807","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但未来十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果在过去十年中增长放缓，未来几年也不太可能成为增长怪物。</li><li>股票具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能不会一样。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，十年后苹果的股价可能仍会大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前的股票回报率为 900%，年复合回报率约为 26%，轻松超过了该时期大盘的回报率。重要的是，股价的涨幅远远超过了公司的市值，而公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了 550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅降低了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个非常成功的商业时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的崛起，同时在手表和平板电脑等新产品方面也取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新的产品类别推出。目前，股价为 125 美元，比过去 12 个月上涨了 57%，但 2021 年迄今下跌了 6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整模式，这并不奇怪，因为苹果的估值在最近的过去扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前一致的目标价为 156 美元，这意味着上涨潜力为 25%。由于目前没有迹象表明股票会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票10年后会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，2031年苹果的股价是无法精确预测的。历史一次又一次地表明，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以制定情景，看看在特定条件下未来股价可能会处于什么位置，以了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了制定这样一个场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去经历了几年的强劲增长和几年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的实力，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也起着一定的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了 154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。在2010年代初，苹果在iPhone“胜利之路”的支持下实现了巨大的增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长放缓得多。甚至有一些年份收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年非常强劲的增长推动了这一增长时，假设苹果未来每年也将增长10%可能不太合理。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果产品价格上涨以及在中国等高增长国家市场份额增长潜力的背景下，越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格更高的产品，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致应用程序支出增加——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像 iPhone 那样大规模），苹果应该能够以坚实的速度发展其业务。我个人认为，未来几年5%-7%的收入增长率可能是一个现实的估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅降低其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了 36% 的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股份在公司价值中所占份额将增长 56%，即年化增长 4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年仅将其股票数量减少了 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股份数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至 25% 时，当我们查看每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约 3% 的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我 5%-7% 的业务增长预期，我因此假设苹果从长远来看每股将增长 8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 过去的估值范围非常广泛，其股票交易倍数在某些时候非常低，而投资者则愿意在其他时候支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的 10 倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，到 2020 年底，股价交易价格高达公司净利润的 40 倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL 的历史市盈率为 28 倍，远期利润约为 24 倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去 3 年、5 年、7 年和 10 年的中位数收益倍数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期间，中值更高。我不相信 AAPL 的交易价格会达到过去十年平均净利润的 15.5 倍，因为对于苹果这样一家拥有强大品牌、庞大规模、巨大利润和堡垒资产负债表的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。另一方面，我也不相信苹果会永远以 24-28 倍的市盈率进行交易——对于一家以中个位数实现稳健但并不引人注目的业务增长的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，情况尤其如此，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力，而其他条件相同。因此，我认为 2031 年净利润 20 倍左右的估值可能是一个合理的估计，这或多或少与 3 年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从 2021 年每股收益估计值 5.15 美元开始计算，并假设到 2031 年每年增长 7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为 10.10 美元至 13.40 美元。将 20 倍市盈率放在该市盈率上，目标价约为每股 200-270 美元。因此，在 235 美元左右的中点，股价将比当前水平上涨约 90%，即年化上涨约 6.5%。这当然不是一个糟糕的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的大回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，AAPL 在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报不太兴奋。当我们考虑到如果苹果估值下降（例如由于利率上升），未来1-3年内股价确实存在相当大的下行风险时，暂时保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现得很好。目前，我将苹果评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能会买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意，更喜欢在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说股票在未来十年确实具有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但未来十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果在过去十年中增长放缓，未来几年也不太可能成为增长怪物。</li><li>股票具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL) 是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能不会一样。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，十年后苹果的股价可能仍会大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前的股票回报率为 900%，年复合回报率约为 26%，轻松超过了该时期大盘的回报率。重要的是，股价的涨幅远远超过了公司的市值，而公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了 550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅降低了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是一个非常成功的商业时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的崛起，同时在手表和平板电脑等新产品方面也取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新的产品类别推出。目前，股价为 125 美元，比过去 12 个月上涨了 57%，但 2021 年迄今下跌了 6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整模式，这并不奇怪，因为苹果的估值在最近的过去扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前一致的目标价为 156 美元，这意味着上涨潜力为 25%。由于目前没有迹象表明股票会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股票10年后会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，2031年苹果的股价是无法精确预测的。历史一次又一次地表明，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以制定情景，看看在特定条件下未来股价可能会处于什么位置，以了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了制定这样一个场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去经历了几年的强劲增长和几年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的实力，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也起着一定的作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了 154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。在2010年代初，苹果在iPhone“胜利之路”的支持下实现了巨大的增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长放缓得多。甚至有一些年份收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年非常强劲的增长推动了这一增长时，假设苹果未来每年也将增长10%可能不太合理。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在苹果产品价格上涨以及在中国等高增长国家市场份额增长潜力的背景下，越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格更高的产品，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致应用程序支出增加——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像 iPhone 那样大规模），苹果应该能够以坚实的速度发展其业务。我个人认为，未来几年5%-7%的收入增长率可能是一个现实的估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅降低其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了 36% 的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股份在公司价值中所占份额将增长 56%，即年化增长 4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年仅将其股票数量减少了 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股份数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至 25% 时，当我们查看每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约 3% 的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我 5%-7% 的业务增长预期，我因此假设苹果从长远来看每股将增长 8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 过去的估值范围非常广泛，其股票交易倍数在某些时候非常低，而投资者则愿意在其他时候支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的 10 倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，到 2020 年底，股价交易价格高达公司净利润的 40 倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL 的历史市盈率为 28 倍，远期利润约为 24 倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去 3 年、5 年、7 年和 10 年的中位数收益倍数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期间，中值更高。我不相信 AAPL 的交易价格会达到过去十年平均净利润的 15.5 倍，因为对于苹果这样一家拥有强大品牌、庞大规模、巨大利润和堡垒资产负债表的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。另一方面，我也不相信苹果会永远以 24-28 倍的市盈率进行交易——对于一家以中个位数实现稳健但并不引人注目的业务增长的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，情况尤其如此，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力，而其他条件相同。因此，我认为 2031 年净利润 20 倍左右的估值可能是一个合理的估计，这或多或少与 3 年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL 现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从 2021 年每股收益估计值 5.15 美元开始计算，并假设到 2031 年每年增长 7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为 10.10 美元至 13.40 美元。将 20 倍市盈率放在该市盈率上，目标价约为每股 200-270 美元。因此，在 235 美元左右的中点，股价将比当前水平上涨约 90%，即年化上涨约 6.5%。这当然不是一个糟糕的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的大回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，AAPL 在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报不太兴奋。当我们考虑到如果苹果估值下降（例如由于利率上升），未来1-3年内股价确实存在相当大的下行风险时，暂时保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现得很好。目前，我将苹果评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能会买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意，更喜欢在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说股票在未来十年确实具有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113559892,"gmtCreate":1622628174116,"gmtModify":1634099799918,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy buy. Don’t wait anymore","listText":"Buy buy. Don’t wait anymore","text":"Buy buy. Don’t wait anymore","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113559892","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188552613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线飙升的股价很容易被视为只是迷因交易的疯狂，这种社交媒体引发的投资者狂热已经将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司推入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者有可能错过了电影院行业的根本性变革--这也不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升 23%，收于 32.04 美元，略低于 5 月下旬创下的 36.72 美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为 160 亿美元，是 2018 年的 15 倍多，2018 年是票房创纪录的一年。在周三的盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨了 34%，至 42.92 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不会相加。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上就是市值和债务。AMC 的企业价值约为 260 亿美元，而 2018 年底约为 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于全国最大城市的影院几个月来一直处于黑暗状态，AMC 在大流行病期间增加了债务。这些数字很容易理解为什么：2020年美国票房产生了约21亿美元的门票销售额，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到困扰。但这并不是第一次。这个行业在千禧年之交基本上崩溃了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，由于一种新的剧院设计——体育场座椅可以提供更好的屏幕视野，该行业有足够的容量。这种转变意味着连锁电影院不得不翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客，转而去视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量趋于稳定。2002年至2007年间，富豪影院成为一台赚钱机器，因为股票定价错误。该股平均年回报率为 21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于 9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当时，富豪影院的企业价值约为 50 亿美元，约占美国总票房的 50%。这与今天的 AMC 相去甚远。对于 AMC 来说，新的东西必须与众不同才有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>或许影院业务又将经历一段盘整期，或许会迎来另一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC 周二的涨幅是由新筹集的资金推动的，这样该公司就可以发动攻势，收购倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，at的总销售额可能达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，凭借更大的规模带来的更好的毛利率，AMC 每年可能能够产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为 4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为 3%。这些数字是可以起作用的--如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况也存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到 6 亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着并购，AMC 市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，由电影世界控股公司（Cine.London）所有。Cinemark (CNK) 也是。不存在真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须处理流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一进程。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地流向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股的问题。他们不会像这样交易，这对剧院来说是一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 484%，但仍较历史高点下跌 72%。Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 222%。它们比历史高点下降了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价再次较 52 周低点上涨近 1,600%，较 5 月份的历史高点仅下跌 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也看不到这种潜力。九名分析师研究了该股。分析师的平均目标价约为 5 美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。但当时的股份较少。旧目标企业价值约为70亿美元。从 70 亿美元到 260 亿美元很难预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正的自由现金流——2022 年为 1300 万美元，2023 年为 9000 万美元。这距离 6 亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是另一种说法，即 AMC 看涨者离计算成功还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.<blockquote>AMC 股价再次飙升。如何理解这一举动？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 17:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线飙升的股价很容易被视为只是迷因交易的疯狂，这种社交媒体引发的投资者狂热已经将游戏驿站和黑莓等公司推入了投机领域。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p><p><blockquote>但传统投资者有可能错过了电影院行业的根本性变革--这也不是第一次了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>AMC（股票代码：AMC）股价周二飙升 23%，收于 32.04 美元，略低于 5 月下旬创下的 36.72 美元的历史高点。这使得这家连锁影院的市值约为 160 亿美元，是 2018 年的 15 倍多，2018 年是票房创纪录的一年。在周三的盘前交易中，该公司股价又上涨了 34%，至 42.92 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p><p><blockquote>不过，即使投资者错过了拐点，数学也不会相加。原因可能是市值不是正确的衡量标准。也许是企业价值，本质上就是市值和债务。AMC 的企业价值约为 260 亿美元，而 2018 年底约为 62 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>由于全国最大城市的影院几个月来一直处于黑暗状态，AMC 在大流行病期间增加了债务。这些数字很容易理解为什么：2020年美国票房产生了约21亿美元的门票销售额，比2018年创纪录的119亿美元下降了81%。</blockquote></p><p> So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者似乎对电影院经济感到困扰。但这并不是第一次。这个行业在千禧年之交基本上崩溃了。例如，富豪影院于2001年宣布破产。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p><p><blockquote>当时，由于一种新的剧院设计——体育场座椅可以提供更好的屏幕视野，该行业有足够的容量。这种转变意味着连锁电影院不得不翻新，否则就有可能失去所有顾客，转而去视野更好的电影院。最终，太多的座位和不够的顾客意味着体育场座位投资的回报从未实现。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>结果是整合。随着操作员的减少，屏幕数量趋于稳定。2002年至2007年间，富豪影院成为一台赚钱机器，因为股票定价错误。该股平均年回报率为 21%。同期，标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数的平均年回报率均低于 9%。</blockquote></p><p> In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p><p><blockquote>当时，富豪影院的企业价值约为 50 亿美元，约占美国总票房的 50%。这与今天的 AMC 相去甚远。对于 AMC 来说，新的东西必须与众不同才有价值。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p><p><blockquote>或许影院业务又将经历一段盘整期，或许会迎来另一个回报的黄金时代。事实上，AMC 周二的涨幅是由新筹集的资金推动的，这样该公司就可以发动攻势，收购倒闭的连锁店。毕竟，垄断有利于股票回报。</blockquote></p><p> If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC能够增加市场份额，并且美国票房能够在几年内恢复到2018年的水平，at的总销售额可能达到90亿美元——60亿美元来自门票，30亿美元来自特许经营。2018年销售额达55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p><p><blockquote>然后，凭借更大的规模带来的更好的毛利率，AMC 每年可能能够产生 6 亿美元的自由现金流，这使得该股的自由现金流收益率约为 4%。标普500的自由现金流收益率约为 3%。这些数字是可以起作用的--如果它们被拉伸的话。</blockquote></p><p> There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这种情况也存在问题。有很多如果和可能——而 AMC 过去从未产生过这样的现金流。达到 6 亿美元的自由现金流更多的是为了证明当前估值的合理性，而不是预测可能发生的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着并购，AMC 市场份额可能会上升，但仍然存在竞争对手。富豪影院仍然存在，由电影世界控股公司（Cine.London）所有。Cinemark (CNK) 也是。不存在真正的垄断。</blockquote></p><p> AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 及其同行也必须处理流媒体问题。独家影院放映的窗口正在缩小。疫情加速了这一进程。如果AMC变得太大，对电影制作人的要求太高，人才总是可以更快地流向流媒体，从而损害票房销售。</blockquote></p><p> There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>还有同行股的问题。他们不会像这样交易，这对剧院来说是一个勇敢的新世界。Cineworld 股价较 52 周低点上涨 484%，但仍较历史高点下跌 72%。Cinemark 股价较 52 周低点上涨 222%。它们比历史高点下降了47%。</blockquote></p><p> AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 股价再次较 52 周低点上涨近 1,600%，较 5 月份的历史高点仅下跌 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也看不到这种潜力。九名分析师研究了该股。分析师的平均目标价约为 5 美元。在大流行之前，分析师的平均目标价为 15 美元。但当时的股份较少。旧目标企业价值约为70亿美元。从 70 亿美元到 260 亿美元很难预测更好的利润率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师确实模拟了正的自由现金流——2022 年为 1300 万美元，2023 年为 9000 万美元。这距离 6 亿美元还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p> And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p><p><blockquote>这只是另一种说法，即 AMC 看涨者离计算成功还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134814407,"gmtCreate":1622215498409,"gmtModify":1634182733522,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134814407","repostId":"2138488686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132441664,"gmtCreate":1622110112558,"gmtModify":1634183771647,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132441664","repostId":"1142769404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136470395,"gmtCreate":1622037652717,"gmtModify":1634184450078,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Y not. Crash more better","listText":"Y not. Crash more better","text":"Y not. Crash more better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136470395","repostId":"2138511164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138578289,"gmtCreate":1621951492341,"gmtModify":1634185200278,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really effective or not","listText":"Really effective or not","text":"Really effective or not","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138578289","repostId":"1150619526","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150619526","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1621951262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150619526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-25 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Moderna shares once gained more than 4%<blockquote>Moderna股价一度上涨超过4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150619526","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Today Moderna shares once gained more than 4%. Modernasaid Tuesday its Covid-19 vaccine was 100% eff","content":"<p>Today&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;shares&nbsp;once&nbsp;gained&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>今天，Moderna 股价一度上涨超过 4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d4545f5ddaf3cc95708b587f6eedb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Modernasaid Tuesday its Covid-19 vaccine was 100% effective in a study of adolescents ages 12 to 17, making it the second shot behindPfizer's to demonstrate high efficacy in younger age groups.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 周二表示，其 Covid-19 疫苗在一项针对 12 至 17 岁青少年的研究中 100% 有效，使其成为继辉瑞公司之后第二次在年轻年龄组中证明高效的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration to expand the emergency use of its Covid vaccine for teens early next month. If approved, it would likely dramatically expand the number of shots available to middle and high school students ahead of the next school year. Pfizer and German partnerBioNTechwere clearedto use their vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，计划下月初要求美国食品和药物管理局扩大其新冠疫苗在青少年中的紧急使用范围。如果获得批准，它可能会在下一学年之前大幅增加初中生和高中生的注射次数。本月早些时候，辉瑞和德国合作伙伴 BioNTech 获准将其疫苗用于 12 至 15 岁的青少年。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are encouraged that mRNA-1273 was highly effective at preventing COVID-19 in adolescents,\" Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a press release. \"We remain committed to doing our part to help end the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官 Stephane Bancel 在一份新闻稿中表示：“mRNA-1273 在预防青少年 COVID-19 方面非常有效，这让我们感到鼓舞。”“我们仍然致力于尽自己的一份力量来帮助结束 COVID-19 大流行。”</blockquote></p><p>The two-dose vaccine, which is given four weeks apart, is already authorized for adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种间隔四周注射的两剂疫苗已经被授权用于成年人。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. regulators are expected to grant Moderna's request for use in teens. The approval process could take about a month, just in time for some summer activities and fall classes if Moderna submits the data by early June. Pfizer and BioNTech requested expanded use of their shot in adolescents on April 9, for example, and were authorized by the FDA on May 10.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国监管机构将批准 Moderna 在青少年中使用的请求。如果 Moderna 在 6 月初之前提交数据，审批过程可能需要大约一个月的时间，正好赶上一些夏季活动和秋季课程。例如，辉瑞和 BioNTech 于 4 月 9 日要求扩大其疫苗在青少年中的使用范围，并于 5 月 10 日获得 FDA 批准。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Moderna shares once gained more than 4%<blockquote>Moderna股价一度上涨超过4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nModerna shares once gained more than 4%<blockquote>Moderna股价一度上涨超过4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 22:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today&nbsp;Moderna&nbsp;shares&nbsp;once&nbsp;gained&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;4%.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>今天，Moderna 股价一度上涨超过 4%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d4545f5ddaf3cc95708b587f6eedb0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Modernasaid Tuesday its Covid-19 vaccine was 100% effective in a study of adolescents ages 12 to 17, making it the second shot behindPfizer's to demonstrate high efficacy in younger age groups.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 周二表示，其 Covid-19 疫苗在一项针对 12 至 17 岁青少年的研究中 100% 有效，使其成为继辉瑞公司之后第二次在年轻年龄组中证明高效的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p>The company said it plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration to expand the emergency use of its Covid vaccine for teens early next month. If approved, it would likely dramatically expand the number of shots available to middle and high school students ahead of the next school year. Pfizer and German partnerBioNTechwere clearedto use their vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，计划下月初要求美国食品和药物管理局扩大其新冠疫苗在青少年中的紧急使用范围。如果获得批准，它可能会在下一学年之前大幅增加初中生和高中生的注射次数。本月早些时候，辉瑞和德国合作伙伴 BioNTech 获准将其疫苗用于 12 至 15 岁的青少年。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are encouraged that mRNA-1273 was highly effective at preventing COVID-19 in adolescents,\" Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a press release. \"We remain committed to doing our part to help end the COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 首席执行官 Stephane Bancel 在一份新闻稿中表示：“mRNA-1273 在预防青少年 COVID-19 方面非常有效，这让我们感到鼓舞。”“我们仍然致力于尽自己的一份力量来帮助结束 COVID-19 大流行。”</blockquote></p><p>The two-dose vaccine, which is given four weeks apart, is already authorized for adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种间隔四周注射的两剂疫苗已经被授权用于成年人。</blockquote></p><p>U.S. regulators are expected to grant Moderna's request for use in teens. The approval process could take about a month, just in time for some summer activities and fall classes if Moderna submits the data by early June. Pfizer and BioNTech requested expanded use of their shot in adolescents on April 9, for example, and were authorized by the FDA on May 10.</p><p><blockquote>预计美国监管机构将批准 Moderna 在青少年中使用的请求。如果 Moderna 在 6 月初之前提交数据，审批过程可能需要大约一个月的时间，正好赶上一些夏季活动和秋季课程。例如，辉瑞和 BioNTech 于 4 月 9 日要求扩大其疫苗在青少年中的使用范围，并于 5 月 10 日获得 FDA 批准。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150619526","content_text":"Today Moderna shares once gained more than 4%. Modernasaid Tuesday its Covid-19 vaccine was 100% effective in a study of adolescents ages 12 to 17, making it the second shot behindPfizer's to demonstrate high efficacy in younger age groups.The company said it plans to ask the Food and Drug Administration to expand the emergency use of its Covid vaccine for teens early next month. If approved, it would likely dramatically expand the number of shots available to middle and high school students ahead of the next school year. Pfizer and German partnerBioNTechwere clearedto use their vaccine for 12- to 15-year-olds earlier this month.\"We are encouraged that mRNA-1273 was highly effective at preventing COVID-19 in adolescents,\" Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said in a press release. \"We remain committed to doing our part to help end the COVID-19 pandemic.\"The two-dose vaccine, which is given four weeks apart, is already authorized for adults.U.S. regulators are expected to grant Moderna's request for use in teens. The approval process could take about a month, just in time for some summer activities and fall classes if Moderna submits the data by early June. Pfizer and BioNTech requested expanded use of their shot in adolescents on April 9, for example, and were authorized by the FDA on May 10.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133687825,"gmtCreate":1621742930567,"gmtModify":1634186832351,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133687825","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197741865,"gmtCreate":1621489192457,"gmtModify":1634188704992,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"For the first time. Lolz","listText":"For the first time. Lolz","text":"For the first time. Lolz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197741865","repostId":"2136943780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":197370751,"gmtCreate":1621431252773,"gmtModify":1631884221867,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just buy at dip. Hold on. Then sell it","listText":"Just buy at dip. Hold on. Then sell it","text":"Just buy at dip. Hold on. Then sell it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197370751","repostId":"1176038182","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195181222,"gmtCreate":1621262468266,"gmtModify":1634192933424,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Already tip top liao","listText":"Already tip top liao","text":"Already tip top liao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195181222","repostId":"1124436775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124436775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621262168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124436775?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124436775","media":"Barrons","summary":"High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reportin","content":"<p>High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as&nbsp;Walmart&nbsp;will on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>经营企业时，高标准是伟大的。对于一家公司来说，公布财报可能会很艰难，沃尔玛周二就会如此。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计沃尔玛第一财季营收为 1,322 亿美元，每股收益为 1.21 美元。相比之下，上季度每股收益为 1.39 美元，去年同期为 1.18 美元，去年同期收入为 1346 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.</p><p><blockquote>如果以最近的历史为指导，沃尔玛将超过这些数字--但这对该股来说还不够好，因为自大流行病开始以来，每次发布财报后，沃尔玛的股价都会下跌。虽然人们对它打破这种格局的希望渺茫，但在过去的一年里，投资者一直将这家零售巨头置于最高标准，而且这种情况似乎不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 大流行给沃尔玛带来了多大的推动，怎么强调都不为过。作为一家重要的零售商，它能够在危机开始时保持营业——随着消费者预计会在家里度过更多时间而囤积库存，从而获得了好处。即使限制放松，疫苗接种提供了一条恢复正常的道路，沃尔玛及其大型零售同行仍继续蓬勃发展。在刺激支票以及餐饮和旅行支出减少的推动下，消费者渴望在 2020 年的大部分时间里进行消费。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its&nbsp;first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than&nbsp;Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管沃尔玛的股价在 2020 年表现出色，但它的股票对 Covid 带来的打击反应并不理想。沃尔玛于当年 5 月中旬公布了 2020 年第一季度的业绩，这是新冠疫情封锁后公布的第一季度业绩。数字不错，但股价下跌了 2.1%。同样的事情发生在 8 月份，当时投资者担心沃尔玛的同店销售额增长速度低于塔吉特百货（TGT）；11 月份，沃尔玛的盈利超出了预期，但沃尔玛的股价却下跌了，尽管其股价在 2020 年结束时上涨了 21%。</blockquote></p><p> Not so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年就不是这样了。尽管沃尔玛报告销售额达到创纪录的 1,520 亿美元，但盈利未达预期，股价下跌 6.5%。沃尔玛股价今年仍下跌 3.2%，与上涨 20% 的塔吉特百货相比，这更加令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> On some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments&nbsp;and&nbsp;fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在某些层面上，沃尔玛和塔吉特百货之间的比较并不是一对一的。凭借海外投资和金融科技企业，沃尔玛是一家更大、更复杂的公司。塔吉特的规模较小，这给了它更大的发展空间，尤其是在它刚刚成功扭亏为盈，摆脱了早期全渠道努力和加拿大扩张中的失误后，就进入了大流行病时期。塔吉特的核心客户也稍微富裕一些，反过来也不太依赖刺激支票来度过大流行病。</blockquote></p><p> That’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that&nbsp;membership sign-ups may be lagging&nbsp;at its&nbsp;subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle&nbsp;more with inflation&nbsp;pushing up prices for&nbsp;many consumer goods.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这对投资者来说是冰冷的安慰，尤其是因为沃尔玛股价可能难以打破财报后的连跌。多位分析师警告称，其订阅服务 Walmart+ 的会员注册可能滞后。由于通货膨胀推高了许多消费品的价格，沃尔玛的低收入购物者也可能面临更大的困境。</blockquote></p><p> The latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.</p><p><blockquote>最新一轮政府刺激措施帮助 3 月份零售额跃升至大流行时代的高点，而美国消费者信心在 4 月份达到 14 个月以来的最高水平，这两个数据点都意味着沃尔玛报告强于预期的可能性增加同店销售额，预计将增长 1.1%。然而，该公司在一年前同店销售额增长 1.3% 后，面临着严峻的同比比较。目前还不清楚投资者是会奖励销售放缓，还是会惩罚销售放缓。</blockquote></p><p> If it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.</p><p><blockquote>如果是后者，该股在发行后仍有可能面临一场艰苦的战斗--要么击败，要么不击败。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as&nbsp;Walmart&nbsp;will on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>经营企业时，高标准是伟大的。对于一家公司来说，公布财报可能会很艰难，沃尔玛周二就会如此。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计沃尔玛第一财季营收为 1,322 亿美元，每股收益为 1.21 美元。相比之下，上季度每股收益为 1.39 美元，去年同期为 1.18 美元，去年同期收入为 1346 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.</p><p><blockquote>如果以最近的历史为指导，沃尔玛将超过这些数字--但这对该股来说还不够好，因为自大流行病开始以来，每次发布财报后，沃尔玛的股价都会下跌。虽然人们对它打破这种格局的希望渺茫，但在过去的一年里，投资者一直将这家零售巨头置于最高标准，而且这种情况似乎不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 大流行给沃尔玛带来了多大的推动，怎么强调都不为过。作为一家重要的零售商，它能够在危机开始时保持营业——随着消费者预计会在家里度过更多时间而囤积库存，从而获得了好处。即使限制放松，疫苗接种提供了一条恢复正常的道路，沃尔玛及其大型零售同行仍继续蓬勃发展。在刺激支票以及餐饮和旅行支出减少的推动下，消费者渴望在 2020 年的大部分时间里进行消费。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its&nbsp;first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than&nbsp;Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管沃尔玛的股价在 2020 年表现出色，但它的股票对 Covid 带来的打击反应并不理想。沃尔玛于当年 5 月中旬公布了 2020 年第一季度的业绩，这是新冠疫情封锁后公布的第一季度业绩。数字不错，但股价下跌了 2.1%。同样的事情发生在 8 月份，当时投资者担心沃尔玛的同店销售额增长速度低于塔吉特百货（TGT）；11 月份，沃尔玛的盈利超出了预期，但沃尔玛的股价却下跌了，尽管其股价在 2020 年结束时上涨了 21%。</blockquote></p><p> Not so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年就不是这样了。尽管沃尔玛报告销售额达到创纪录的 1,520 亿美元，但盈利未达预期，股价下跌 6.5%。沃尔玛股价今年仍下跌 3.2%，与上涨 20% 的塔吉特百货相比，这更加令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> On some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments&nbsp;and&nbsp;fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在某些层面上，沃尔玛和塔吉特百货之间的比较并不是一对一的。凭借海外投资和金融科技企业，沃尔玛是一家更大、更复杂的公司。塔吉特的规模较小，这给了它更大的发展空间，尤其是在它刚刚成功扭亏为盈，摆脱了早期全渠道努力和加拿大扩张中的失误后，就进入了大流行病时期。塔吉特的核心客户也稍微富裕一些，反过来也不太依赖刺激支票来度过大流行病。</blockquote></p><p> That’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that&nbsp;membership sign-ups may be lagging&nbsp;at its&nbsp;subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle&nbsp;more with inflation&nbsp;pushing up prices for&nbsp;many consumer goods.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这对投资者来说是冰冷的安慰，尤其是因为沃尔玛股价可能难以打破财报后的连跌。多位分析师警告称，其订阅服务 Walmart+ 的会员注册可能滞后。由于通货膨胀推高了许多消费品的价格，沃尔玛的低收入购物者也可能面临更大的困境。</blockquote></p><p> The latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.</p><p><blockquote>最新一轮政府刺激措施帮助 3 月份零售额跃升至大流行时代的高点，而美国消费者信心在 4 月份达到 14 个月以来的最高水平，这两个数据点都意味着沃尔玛报告强于预期的可能性增加同店销售额，预计将增长 1.1%。然而，该公司在一年前同店销售额增长 1.3% 后，面临着严峻的同比比较。目前还不清楚投资者是会奖励销售放缓，还是会惩罚销售放缓。</blockquote></p><p> If it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.</p><p><blockquote>如果是后者，该股在发行后仍有可能面临一场艰苦的战斗--要么击败，要么不击败。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/walmart-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-even-a-beat-might-not-help-the-stock-51621203579?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/walmart-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-even-a-beat-might-not-help-the-stock-51621203579?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124436775","content_text":"High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as Walmart will on Tuesday.\nAnalysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.\nIf recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.\nIt’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.\nWalmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.\nNot so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.\nOn some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments and fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.\nThat’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that membership sign-ups may be lagging at its subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle more with inflation pushing up prices for many consumer goods.\nThe latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.\nIf it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191698238,"gmtCreate":1620873171924,"gmtModify":1634195689056,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fear fear fear. Good bargain time","listText":"Fear fear fear. Good bargain time","text":"Fear fear fear. Good bargain time","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191698238","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199710992,"gmtCreate":1620733612016,"gmtModify":1634196762345,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bargain coming soon&nbsp;","listText":"Bargain coming soon&nbsp;","text":"Bargain coming soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199710992","repostId":"1127282510","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":199981108,"gmtCreate":1620662448904,"gmtModify":1634197297691,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please push up the oil price. Thanks","listText":"Please push up the oil price. Thanks","text":"Please push up the oil price. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199981108","repostId":"2134630976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190300858,"gmtCreate":1620579495974,"gmtModify":1634197941315,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBCT\">$People's United(PBCT)$</a>Good return. Hehe","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBCT\">$People's United(PBCT)$</a>Good return. Hehe","text":"$People's United(PBCT)$Good return. Hehe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84dfc165ed4f64394d1565d537feef8","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190300858","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190076301,"gmtCreate":1620561604203,"gmtModify":1634198025836,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575365928794226","idStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.&nbsp;","listText":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.&nbsp;","text":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190076301","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":117425152,"gmtCreate":1623158547176,"gmtModify":1634036350651,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"FYI","listText":"FYI","text":"FYI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117425152","repostId":"1134112696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134112696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623153084,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134112696?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 19:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134112696","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 8) U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the o","content":"<p>(June 8)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.</p><p><blockquote>（6月8日）美国周二股票期货涨跌互现，由于投资者等待贸易赤字规模数据，道琼斯指数在开盘时有望不温不火地下滑。</blockquote></p><p>Futures tied to the broad S&amp;P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500综合指数挂钩的期货在涨跌之间波动。道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌 0.2%。周一， 蓝筹股指数短暂攀升至历史新高， 收盘下跌0.4%。纳斯达克 100 指数期货小幅上涨 0.2%，表明科技股涨幅疲软。</blockquote></p><p>At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:52，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 18 点，跌幅 0.05%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 5.25 点，跌幅 0.12%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 56.25 点，跌幅 0.41%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34abbee54469fe0e570dce762d9a8f6a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>At 7:52 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 7:52</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Stocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个交易日，由于美国经济快速反弹以及华盛顿和美联储的大力支持，股市一直在区间波动，指数徘徊在创纪录水平附近。最近几周的市场走势缓解了对通货膨胀的担忧。投资者表示，他们正在接受一段动荡的交易时期，同时等待有关消费者价格大幅上涨是否会转瞬即逝的新线索。</blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国4月份贸易逆差从上月创纪录的750亿美元收窄至689亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易数据公布后，股指期货持平至小幅走高。</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f387907a1739ecc654e10c7d6dc8135\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>At 8:33 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 8:33</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>1)&nbsp;Stitch Fix(SFIX)</b> – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）缝合固定（SFIX）</b>– Stitch Fix 第一季度每股亏损 18 美分，低于分析师预期的每股亏损 27 美分。这家在线服装造型公司的收入高于预期。Stitch Fix 还发布了乐观的预测，其活跃客户群与一年前相比增长了 20%。股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>2)&nbsp;Contango Oil &amp; Gas(MCF) </b>– The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) 石油和天然气期货 (MCF)</b>– 该能源生产商同意通过全股票交易与 KKR (KKR) 的独立能源业务合并。合并后的公司初始市值约为48亿美元。Contango 股价在盘前交易中上涨 10.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>3)&nbsp;Coupa Software(COUP) </b>– Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Coupa软件（COUP）</b>– Coupa 公布的季度收益为每股 7 美分，而华尔街预测为每股亏损 19 美分。收入超出预期，这家财务软件公司也发布了乐观的前景。尽管数据乐观，Coupa 股价在盘前交易中仍下跌 9.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>4)&nbsp;Thor Industries(THO)</b> – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) 雷神工业 (THO)</b>– 这家休闲车制造商的第三财季营收和利润均超出预期，其股价在盘前上涨 3.4%。与一年前相比，销售额增加了一倍多，该公司表示没有看到需求放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p><b>5)&nbsp;Chico’s FAS(CHS) </b>– Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><b>5) 奇科的FAS(CHS)</b>- Chico's 在盘前大涨 6.6%，此前这家服装零售商表示正在采取一切适当措施改善业绩并增加股东价值。该声明是对激进投资者巴林顿资本（Barington Capital）致管理层的一封信的回应。另外，Chico's 公布的季度收益和销售额超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- 这家云计算公司的股价在盘前下跌了 1.7%，但较之前的低点有所回落，原因是互联网中断影响了快速备份的网站。停电发生后不久，Fastly 表示已经发现了问题，并正在实施修复措施。</blockquote></p><p><b>7)&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) </b>– The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 该汽车制造商 5 月份在该市场交付了 33,463 辆中国制造的汽车，比 4 月份生产受到维护停工影响时增长了 29%。特斯拉盘前上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>8)&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）AMC院线（AMC）</b>- 在社交媒体推动电影院运营商股价上涨的情况下，AMC 内部人士一直在抛售股票。根据分析公司 InsiderScore 对内部人士文件进行的一项研究，自 5 月 28 日以来，已有 7 名 AMC 内部人士出售了部分股份，其中 9 名内部人士在本季度进行了出售，但首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 不在其中。2020年没有AMC内幕销售。AMC 盘前上涨 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>9)&nbsp;Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b> – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.</p><p><blockquote><b>9) Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b>– Marvell 第一季度的营收和利润均超出华尔街预期，股价在盘前交易中上涨 5.5%。这家芯片制造商还预计其本季度收入将首次超过 10 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>10)&nbsp;Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) </b>– The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP)</b>- 这家饮料公司宣布代表食品生产商和 Keurig Dr Pepper 股东亿滋国际（MDLZ）二次发行 2800 万股普通股后，其股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。Keurig Dr Pepper 不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>11)&nbsp;Vail Resorts(MTN) </b>– Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.</p><p><blockquote><b>11) 韦尔度假村（MTN）</b>– 维尔度假村每股收益超出预期 18 美分，季度利润为每股 6.72 美元。该度假村运营商也看到了收入的最高预测。Vail 表示，与 2019 年大流行前的业绩相比，通行证销售额按单位计算增长了 50%，按美元计算增长了 33%，因为该公司将季票销售价格下调了 20%。</blockquote></p><p><b>12)&nbsp;Etsy(ETSY)</b> – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) Etsy（Etsy）</b>– Etsy 宣布私下发行 10 亿美元的可转换优先票据，在线工艺品市场计划将所得款项用于股票回购和一般企业用途。Etsy在盘前交易中下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</b></blockquote></p><p>The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote></p><p>With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.</p><p><blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote></p><p>They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides our<b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p>For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:</p><p><blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业如何只有在债券收益率下降时表现良好：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p>So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The Leuthold Group</p><p><blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote></p><p>And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.</p><p><blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote></p><p>“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote></p><p>He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”</p><p><blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Tuesday<blockquote>周二美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-08 19:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 8)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.</p><p><blockquote>（6月8日）美国周二股票期货涨跌互现，由于投资者等待贸易赤字规模数据，道琼斯指数在开盘时有望不温不火地下滑。</blockquote></p><p>Futures tied to the broad S&amp;P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与标普500综合指数挂钩的期货在涨跌之间波动。道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌 0.2%。周一， 蓝筹股指数短暂攀升至历史新高， 收盘下跌0.4%。纳斯达克 100 指数期货小幅上涨 0.2%，表明科技股涨幅疲软。</blockquote></p><p>At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 7:52，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 18 点，跌幅 0.05%，标普500电子迷你指数上涨 5.25 点，跌幅 0.12%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 56.25 点，跌幅 0.41%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34abbee54469fe0e570dce762d9a8f6a\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>At 7:52 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 7:52</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Stocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.</p><p><blockquote>最近几个交易日，由于美国经济快速反弹以及华盛顿和美联储的大力支持，股市一直在区间波动，指数徘徊在创纪录水平附近。最近几周的市场走势缓解了对通货膨胀的担忧。投资者表示，他们正在接受一段动荡的交易时期，同时等待有关消费者价格大幅上涨是否会转瞬即逝的新线索。</blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国4月份贸易逆差从上月创纪录的750亿美元收窄至689亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易数据公布后，股指期货持平至小幅走高。</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f387907a1739ecc654e10c7d6dc8135\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>At 8:33 a.m. ET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国东部时间上午 8:33</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p><b>1)&nbsp;Stitch Fix(SFIX)</b> – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）缝合固定（SFIX）</b>– Stitch Fix 第一季度每股亏损 18 美分，低于分析师预期的每股亏损 27 美分。这家在线服装造型公司的收入高于预期。Stitch Fix 还发布了乐观的预测，其活跃客户群与一年前相比增长了 20%。股价在盘前交易中飙升 14.8%。</blockquote></p><p><b>2)&nbsp;Contango Oil &amp; Gas(MCF) </b>– The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>2) 石油和天然气期货 (MCF)</b>– 该能源生产商同意通过全股票交易与 KKR (KKR) 的独立能源业务合并。合并后的公司初始市值约为48亿美元。Contango 股价在盘前交易中上涨 10.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>3)&nbsp;Coupa Software(COUP) </b>– Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>3）Coupa软件（COUP）</b>– Coupa 公布的季度收益为每股 7 美分，而华尔街预测为每股亏损 19 美分。收入超出预期，这家财务软件公司也发布了乐观的前景。尽管数据乐观，Coupa 股价在盘前交易中仍下跌 9.2%。</blockquote></p><p><b>4)&nbsp;Thor Industries(THO)</b> – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.</p><p><blockquote><b>4) 雷神工业 (THO)</b>– 这家休闲车制造商的第三财季营收和利润均超出预期，其股价在盘前上涨 3.4%。与一年前相比，销售额增加了一倍多，该公司表示没有看到需求放缓的迹象。</blockquote></p><p><b>5)&nbsp;Chico’s FAS(CHS) </b>– Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote><b>5) 奇科的FAS(CHS)</b>- Chico's 在盘前大涨 6.6%，此前这家服装零售商表示正在采取一切适当措施改善业绩并增加股东价值。该声明是对激进投资者巴林顿资本（Barington Capital）致管理层的一封信的回应。另外，Chico's 公布的季度收益和销售额超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>6)&nbsp;Fastly(FSLY)</b> – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.</p><p><blockquote><b>6) 快速（FSLY）</b>- 这家云计算公司的股价在盘前下跌了 1.7%，但较之前的低点有所回落，原因是互联网中断影响了快速备份的网站。停电发生后不久，Fastly 表示已经发现了问题，并正在实施修复措施。</blockquote></p><p><b>7)&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) </b>– The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>7）特斯拉（TSLA）</b>– 该汽车制造商 5 月份在该市场交付了 33,463 辆中国制造的汽车，比 4 月份生产受到维护停工影响时增长了 29%。特斯拉盘前上涨3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>8)&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC)</b> – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>8）AMC院线（AMC）</b>- 在社交媒体推动电影院运营商股价上涨的情况下，AMC 内部人士一直在抛售股票。根据分析公司 InsiderScore 对内部人士文件进行的一项研究，自 5 月 28 日以来，已有 7 名 AMC 内部人士出售了部分股份，其中 9 名内部人士在本季度进行了出售，但首席执行官亚当·阿伦 (Adam Aron) 不在其中。2020年没有AMC内幕销售。AMC 盘前上涨 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p><b>9)&nbsp;Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b> – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.</p><p><blockquote><b>9) Marvell Technology(MRVL)</b>– Marvell 第一季度的营收和利润均超出华尔街预期，股价在盘前交易中上涨 5.5%。这家芯片制造商还预计其本季度收入将首次超过 10 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>10)&nbsp;Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) </b>– The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.</p><p><blockquote><b>10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP)</b>- 这家饮料公司宣布代表食品生产商和 Keurig Dr Pepper 股东亿滋国际（MDLZ）二次发行 2800 万股普通股后，其股价在盘前下跌了 3.6%。Keurig Dr Pepper 不会从此次发行中获得任何收益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><b>11)&nbsp;Vail Resorts(MTN) </b>– Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.</p><p><blockquote><b>11) 韦尔度假村（MTN）</b>– 维尔度假村每股收益超出预期 18 美分，季度利润为每股 6.72 美元。该度假村运营商也看到了收入的最高预测。Vail 表示，与 2019 年大流行前的业绩相比，通行证销售额按单位计算增长了 50%，按美元计算增长了 33%，因为该公司将季票销售价格下调了 20%。</blockquote></p><p><b>12)&nbsp;Etsy(ETSY)</b> – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>12) Etsy（Etsy）</b>– Etsy 宣布私下发行 10 亿美元的可转换优先票据，在线工艺品市场计划将所得款项用于股票回购和一般企业用途。Etsy在盘前交易中下跌1.9%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自2008年以来，这是股票方向的最大信号。以下是它告诉投资者现在的方向。</b></blockquote></p><p>The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，现在的夏季平静是真实的，因为股市催化剂似乎很少。继上个月 5 月份的数据令市场感到恐惧之后，周四的消费者价格更新可能会带来下一次更新。</blockquote></p><p>With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.</p><p><blockquote>随着 equitiesSPX,-0.08% 在从 COVID-19 大流行低迷中令人兴奋的复苏中徘徊在历史高位，投资者想知道各国央行何时以及如何开始应对全球通胀飙升的迹象。由于并非所有股票在复苏的不同阶段都是一样的，因此许多人理所当然地想知道他们押注的股票是否正确。</blockquote></p><p>They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides our<b>call of the day</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold 集团首席投资策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）表示，他们应该首先关注自 2008 年以来最可靠的股市走向指标--10 年期债券收益率 TMUBMUSD10Y，1.541%。<b>今日看涨期权</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份报告中告诉客户，自 2008-09 年金融危机以来，“债券市场一直在决定，或者至少是巧合地发出信号”，哪些股票组将成为赢家和输家。对于周期性、成长型投资、小盘股等几个热门主题来说尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p>For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:</p><p><blockquote>例如，他通过下面的图表展示了公用事业和必需品或低波动性投资等防御性行业如何只有在债券收益率下降时表现良好：</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p>So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，因此，如果目前徘徊在 1.561% 的 10 年期国债收益率再次达到 2%，该集团可能会表现不佳。但他补充说，如果经济面临过热压力，收益率将上升，历史表明，波动性最大的股票往往是赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森指出，下面的小盘股、周期性行业和新兴市场图表 “在收益率上升造成股市混乱的时期，这些市场往往是赢家”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>洛伊特霍尔德集团</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The Leuthold Group</p><p><blockquote>洛伊特霍尔德集团</blockquote></p><p>And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.</p><p><blockquote>这位策略师是确实看到收益率上升的人之一。</blockquote></p><p>“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管通胀预期不断升级，但最近 10 年期国债收益率却停滞不前，这令人费解。此外，如果收益率继续横盘整理或回撤近期部分涨幅，包括成长型股票在内的防御性投资很可能会成为股市的领头羊，”保尔森写道。</blockquote></p><p>He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”</p><p><blockquote>他预计该收益率将再次走高，可能在 2021 年底前将其推高至 2% 以上。这意味着 “股票投资者应该听从债券市场的信息，驾驶一些快速的‘周期性’股票汽车!”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134112696","content_text":"(June 8) U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday, putting the Dow on course for a tepid slide at the opening bell as investors awaited data on the scale of the trade deficit.Futures tied to the broad S&P 500 index wavered between gains and losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked 0.2% lower. On Monday,the blue-chip index briefly climbed into record territorybefore ending the session down 0.4%. Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.2%, pointing to subdued gains for technology stocks.At 7:52 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 56.25 points, or 0.41%.At 7:52 a.m. ETStocks have been range bound in recent sessions, with indexes hovering close to record levels due to a rapidly rebounding U.S. economy and significant levels of support from Washington and the Federal Reserve. The market’s moves in recent weeks have moderated amidinflation concerns. Investors say they are settling in for a period of choppy trading while they await fresh clues on whether a sharp rise in consumer prices will prove to be fleeting.U.S. trade deficit narrows to $68.9 billion in April from record $75 billion in prior month.Stock-index futures remain flat to slightly higher after trade data.At 8:33 a.m. ETStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:1) Stitch Fix(SFIX) – Stitch Fix lost 18 cents per share for its first quarter, smaller than the 27 cents a share loss that analysts were anticipating. The online clothing styling company's revenue came in above estimates. Stitch Fix also issued an upbeat forecast, amid 20% growth in its active client base compared to a year ago. Shares soared 14.8% in premarket action.2) Contango Oil & Gas(MCF) – The energy producer agreed to combine withKKR's(KKR) Independence Energy business in an all-stock deal. The combined company will have an initial market capitalization of about $4.8 billion. Contango shares jumped 10.3% in premarket trading.3) Coupa Software(COUP) – Coupa reported quarterly earnings of 7 cents per share, compared to Wall Street forecasts for a 19 cents per share loss. Revenue beat estimates, and the financial software company also issued an upbeat outlook. Despite the upbeat numbers, Coupa shares tumbled 9.2% in premarket trading.4) Thor Industries(THO) – The recreational vehicle maker's shares jumped 3.4% in the premarket after it beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its fiscal third quarter. Sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, and the company said it sees no signs of demand slowing.5) Chico’s FAS(CHS) – Chico’s surged 6.6% in the premarket after the apparel retailer said it was taking all appropriate steps to improve performance and increase shareholder value. The statement was in response to a letter sent to management by activist investor Barington Capital. Separately, Chico’s reported quarterly earnings and sales that topped Wall Street forecasts.6) Fastly(FSLY) – The cloud computing company’s shares fell 1.7% in the premarket, but came off earlier lows stemming froman internet outageimpacting Fastly-backed websites. Shortly after the outage hit, Fastly said it had identified the issue and that a fix was being implemented.7) Tesla(TSLA) – The automaker delivered 33,463 China-made vehicles in that market in May, up 29% from April when production was impacted by a maintenance shutdown. Tesla rose 3% in the premarket.8) AMC Entertainment(AMC) – AMC insiders have been selling shares amid a social media-fueled rally in the movie theater operator’s stock. According to a study of insider filings done by analytics firm InsiderScore, seven AMC insiders have sold parts of their stakes since May 28, among nine who have executed sales this quarter though CEO Adam Aron is not among them. There were no AMC insider sales in 2020. AMC added 4.3% in the premarket.9) Marvell Technology(MRVL) – Marvell shares jumped 5.5% in premarket trading after it beat Wall Street estimates on both the top and bottom lines for its first quarter. The chip maker also expects its current-quarter revenue will surpass $1 billion for the first time.10) Keurig Dr Pepper(KDP) – The beverage company’s stock lost 3.6% in the premarket after it announced a secondary offering of 28 million common stock shares, to be sold on behalf of food producer and Keurig Dr Pepper shareholderMondelez(MDLZ). Keurig Dr Pepper will not receive any proceeds from the offering.11) Vail Resorts(MTN) – Vail Resorts beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with quarterly profit of $6.72 per share. The resort operator also saw revenue top forecasts. Vail said pass sales were up 50% by units and 33% by dollars compared to pre-pandemic results in 2019, as the company slashed season pass sale prices by 20%.12) Etsy(ETSY) – Etsy announced a private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes, with the online crafts marketplace planning to use the proceeds to fund stock buybacks and for general corporate purposes. Etsy fell 1.9% in premarket trading.Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:The Leuthold GroupSo should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”The Leuthold GroupThe Leuthold GroupAnd the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115200634,"gmtCreate":1622992976028,"gmtModify":1634096359563,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115200634","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BZ":"BOSS直聘","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"DIBS":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"LFST":0.9,"ZME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190076301,"gmtCreate":1620561604203,"gmtModify":1634198025836,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.&nbsp;","listText":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.&nbsp;","text":"Job opportunity for certain sector and lost of job for certain sector.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190076301","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328796978,"gmtCreate":1615558119895,"gmtModify":1703490891551,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s very risky&nbsp;","listText":"It’s very risky&nbsp;","text":"It’s very risky","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328796978","repostId":"2118557937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112739365,"gmtCreate":1622925161957,"gmtModify":1634096925419,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unbelievable&nbsp;","listText":"Unbelievable&nbsp;","text":"Unbelievable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112739365","repostId":"1162130057","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162130057","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622862397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162130057?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162130057","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks hav","content":"<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 would be below 1,600 without these 3 pillars and those supports are now weakening<blockquote>如果没有这三大支柱，标普500将低于 1,600，而这些支撑现在正在减弱</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要考虑私募股权来获取公开交易股票提供的回报</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21eb0dc365f342dd26c49af9020305\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Stock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.</p><p><blockquote>股票价格的增长速度不可能永远超过经济增长速度。这为美国股市多头提供了一个至关重要的现实检验，他们中的许多人认为股市可以永远跑赢美国经济。例如，在过去十年中，标准普尔 500SPX（按通胀调整后的总回报率计算）+0.88% 的年化利润率优于美国实际 GDP，为 11.9% 至 2.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Going forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of&nbsp;Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at&nbsp;Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”</p><p><blockquote>根据 Research Affiliates 创始人罗伯特·阿诺特 (Robert Arnott) 和 Efficient Frontier Advisors 联席负责人威廉·伯恩斯坦 (William Bernstein) 几年前提出的论点，展望未来，情况可能会相反。他们指出，经济增长的一部分归功于非上市公司，如初创企业等--他们将这一类别称为 “创业资本主义”。</blockquote></p><p> By definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，非上市公司产生的经济增长不会出现在股票市场上——股票市场只反映上市公司的业绩。阿诺特和伯恩斯坦估计，历史上股价的年化增长速度比整体经济慢约两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Such slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:</p><p><blockquote>这种下滑对美国股市未来的回报有着可怕的影响。但我想先讨论一下，为什么股市在过去十年中的惊人表现并不是因为经济增长。相反，这种表现的大部分归功于三个因素：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Valuation changes: The S&amp;P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.</li>  <li>Increasing profit margins: The S&amp;P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.</li>  <li>Net buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.</li> </ul> To appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&amp;P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>估值变化： 标普500的市盈率在过去十年中翻了一番。</li><li>利润率不断提高： 根据标准普尔道琼斯指数高级指数分析师 Howard Silverblatt 的数据，标普500过去四个季度的营业利润率平均比十年前高出近两个百分点。</li><li>净回购：在过去十年中，公司回购的股票超过了他们发行的新股。这减少了流通股数量，并增加了每股收益。</li></ul>为了理解这三个因素的影响，请考虑一下，如果这三个维度在过去十年中没有任何变化，标普500现在的交易价格将低于 1,600 点。伯恩斯坦在接受采访时说，虽然发生这样一场完美风暴的可能性非常低，以至于你可能会倾向于不予理睬，但他不会排除这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Projecting the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预测未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.</p><p><blockquote>假设美国经济在未来十年的增长速度与过去十年相同，那么这项分析对美国股市未来的描绘并不美好。在这种情况下，市场能够产生高于低个位数的年化回报的唯一方法是市盈率和利润率继续上升，或者净回购继续减少流通股数量——或者这三个因素的某种组合发生。</blockquote></p><p> More likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios&nbsp;already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.</p><p><blockquote>更有可能的是，这三个顺风会变成逆风。市盈率已经处于或接近其历史分布的高端，而且不可能永远上升。利润率也处于或接近创纪录水平，正如我本周早些时候所说，有充分的理由预计这些利润率将在未来几年下降。虽然未来几年回购量有可能超过股票发行量，但这并不是板上钉钉的事。例如，在过去 12 个月中，出现了负净回购——即发行的股票多于回购的股票。事实上，阿诺特在一封电子邮件中指出，在美国股市历史上的大部分时间里，净回购都是负数。</blockquote></p><p> One can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.</p><p><blockquote>人们还可能想知道，未来几年经济增长中是否会有更大的份额来自非公共股本。康奈尔大学圣约翰逊商学院院长安德鲁-卡罗利（Andrew Karolyi）在接受采访时表示，私募股权现在发挥的作用比过去大得多。他说，一个可能的未来是，公共股票市场的增长越来越滞后于整体经济的增长。</blockquote></p><p> One measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.</p><p><blockquote>上市公司经济重要性下降的一个衡量标准是上市公司数量的减少，如下图所示。鉴于华尔街许多人专注于炙手可热的 IPO 市场，这种下滑一直被他们忽视。但是，正如卡罗利指出的那样，即使越来越多的公司进入市场，也有越来越多的公司退市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de45fd68cb24b2bdf2791d1f6b9fac0\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"922\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> For example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&amp;A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&amp;A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.</p><p><blockquote>例如，根据Refinitiv的数据，截至2021年5月底，国内M&amp;A活动超过1.6万亿美元，比前五个月M&amp;A活动最多的记录高出近50%。卡罗利认为，我们需要关注首次公开募股和退市，就像人口学家只能通过关注出生和死亡来分析人口趋势一样。</blockquote></p><p> “The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.</p><p><blockquote>“卡罗利说：”上市公司在整体经济中的作用可能会发生变化。它们可能的生命周期路径正在扩展到包括许多最终不会上市的路径，或者在上市前等待更长时间。他补充说，鉴于私募股权市场充足的流动性，它很可能成为许多以前上市的公司的首选退出策略。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.</p><p><blockquote>底线？过去十年对于公开交易的美国股票来说是非同寻常的。不要指望这种情况会无限期地持续下去。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-would-be-below-1-600-without-these-3-pillars-and-those-supports-are-now-weakening-11622781972?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162130057","content_text":"Investors may need to consider private equity to capture the returns that publicly traded stocks have provided\nGETTY IMAGES\nStock prices can’t indefinitely grow faster than the economy. This provides a crucial reality check for U.S. stock-market bulls, many of whom believe stocks can continue outperforming the U.S. economy in perpetuity. Over the past decade, for example, the S&P 500SPX,+0.88%on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis has outperformed real U.S. GDP by an annualized margin of 11.9% to 2.0%.\nGoing forward, it could be the other way around, according to an argument advanced some years ago by Robert Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, and William Bernstein, co-principal at Efficient Frontier Advisors. They pointed out that a portion of economic growth is attributable to non-public companies, such as startups and the like — a category they refer to as “entrepreneurial capitalism.”\nBy definition, economic growth that non-public companies generate will not show up in the stock market— which only reflects the performance of publicly traded corporations. Arnott and Bernstein estimate that share prices historically have grown about two annualized percentage points slower than the overall economy.\nSuch slippage has dire implications for the U.S. stock market’s future return. But I want to first discuss why the stock market’s stunning performance over the past decade was not due to economic growth. Instead, the bulk of that performance was due to three factors:\n\nValuation changes: The S&P 500’s price/earnings ratio has doubled over the past decade.\nIncreasing profit margins: The S&P 500’s operating margin over the past four quarters has averaged nearly two percentage points higher than it was a decade ago, according to data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.\nNet buybacks: Over the past decade corporations have repurchased more shares than new shares they have issued. This has reduced the number of shares outstanding, and increased earnings per share.\n\nTo appreciate the impact of these three factors, consider that the S&P 500 now would trade below 1,600 if there had been no change at all over the past decade with each of these three dimensions. While the chance of such a perfect storm is so low that you might be inclined to dismiss it out of hand, Bernstein said in an interview that he wouldn’t discount the possibility.\nProjecting the future\nThe picture this analysis paints about the U.S. stock market’s future isn’t pretty, assuming the U.S. economy grows at the same pace over the next decade as the last. In that case, the only way the market can produce annualized returns greater than the low single-digits is for the P/E ratio and profit margins to continue rising or for net buybacks to continue reducing the number of shares outstanding — or for some combination of these three factors to occur.\nMore likely, these three tailwinds will become headwinds. P/E ratios already are at or near the high end of their historical distribution, and they can’t go up forever. Profit margins also are at or near record levels and,as I argued earlier this week, there are good reasons to expect those margins to decline in coming years. While it’s possible that buybacks will outpace share issuance in coming years, that’s hardly a sure bet. Over the past 12 months, for example, there have been negative net buybacks — i.e. more shares have been issued than repurchased. In fact, Arnott pointed out in an email, for most of U.S. stock market history net buybacks have been negative.\nOne can also wonder if an even-greater share of economic growth in coming years will accrue to non-public equity. Andrew Karolyi, dean of Cornell University’s SC Johnson College of Business, said in an interview that private equity now plays a much bigger role than in the past. One possible future, he said, is that the growth of the public stock market lags that of the overall economy by an increasing amount.\nOne measure of the declining economic importance of the public corporation is the decreasing number of publicly traded companies, as reflected in the chart below. This decline has been overlooked by many on Wall Street, given their focus on the red-hot IPO market. But, as Karolyi pointed out, even as more companies are coming to market, there have also been an increasing number of delistings.\n\nFor example, according to Refinitiv, through the end of May 2021 there was more than $1.6 trillion in domestic M&A activity, almost 50% higher than the previous calendar year that held the record for the most M&A activity for the first five months. We need to focus on both IPOs and delistings, Karolyi argued, just as demographers can only analyze population trends by focusing on births and deaths.\n“The role of publicly traded corporations in the overall economy may be changing,” Karolyi said. Their possible life cycle paths are expanding to include many that don’t end in becoming publicly traded, for example, or waiting much longer before doing so. Given the abundant liquidity in the private equity market, he added, it may very well become the preferred exit strategy for many companies that previously would have gone public.\nThe bottom line? The past decade was extraordinary for publicly traded U.S. stocks. Don’t expect that to continue indefinitely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102521952,"gmtCreate":1620225032176,"gmtModify":1634206843100,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haizzzz","listText":"Haizzzz","text":"Haizzzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102521952","repostId":"1148686352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148686352","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620224535,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148686352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-05 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market<blockquote>市场历史上的这一天：1893 年恐慌导致股市崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148686352","media":"benzinga","summary":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the ","content":"<p><div> What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time. Where The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02. What Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p><p><blockquote><div>发生什么事了？1893年的今天，美国股市遭受了当时历史上最严重的盘中跌幅。市场行情：道琼斯指数当天收于 30.02。世界上还发生了什么？在……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market<blockquote>市场历史上的这一天：1893 年恐慌导致股市崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Day In Market History: Panic Of 1893 Crashes Stock Market<blockquote>市场历史上的这一天：1893 年恐慌导致股市崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-05 22:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time. Where The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02. What Else Was Going On In The World?In...</p><p><blockquote><div>发生什么事了？1893年的今天，美国股市遭受了当时历史上最严重的盘中跌幅。市场行情：道琼斯指数当天收于 30.02。世界上还发生了什么？在……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/21/05/20964728/this-day-in-market-history-panic-of-1893-crashes-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148686352","content_text":"What Happened?On this day in 1893, U.S. stocks suffered their worst intraday loss in history at the time.\nWhere The Market Was:The Dow finished the day at 30.02.\nWhat Else Was Going On In The World?In 1893, Thomas Edison completed the world’s first movie studio in West Orange, New Jersey. Lizzie Borden was acquitted of the ax murders of her father and stepmother. A fresh, one-pound beef steak cost 10 cents.\nPanic Of 1893:On May 5, 1893, the Dow Jones Index dropped more than 24% from 39.90 to 30.02. It would mark the worst intraday sell-off in U.S. history at the time, a record that would stand until 1929.\nThe Panic of 1893 was triggered in part by falling gold reserves in the U.S. Treasury. At the time, the U.S. was on the gold standard, meaning U.S. dollars could be redeemed for physical gold. When Treasury gold reserves dropped from $190 million in 1890 to $100 million by 1893, Americans grew concerned that the Treasury might run out of gold and began withdrawing bank notes and converting them to gold, placing extreme strain on the U.S. banking industry and credit markets.\nThe May 5 sell-off was triggered in part by the bankruptcy of Nation Cordage the day before.General Electric CompanyGE 0.34%shares dropped 28% on the day from $80 to $58.\nFortunately for investors, the Panic of 1893 didn’t last for long. By the end of the day, the market nearly completely recovered its losses. GE, for example, closed the session at $78.50.\nThe Panic of 1893 would ravage the U.S. economy, triggering a severe four-year depression. Roughly 14,000 U.S. businesses closed, and unemployment rose to 20%. The event would mark the worst economic downturn in U.S. history until the Great Depression began in 1929.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379672828,"gmtCreate":1618735822464,"gmtModify":1634291171883,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like pls&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379672828","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440 亿美元的期权今天到期：以下是将会发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然今天不是四倍（甚至三倍）魔法日，但今天有很多每周期权将到期，其中五个将毫无价值，而其他期权将为基础价格提供支撑“大头针”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，但高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4 月份每日期权交易量较 3 月 30 日年初以来 24 亿美元的低点增长了 70%。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总共有 5,440 亿美元的单只股票期权将于今天到期，其中包括 3,050 亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期日对于持有大量现值（ATM）期权未平仓合约的股票来说可能非常重要，因为做市商将积极对冲其异常庞大的期权投资组合。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动性，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的 Vishal Vivek 所写，在重大到期日，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约将到期。</b>在平价行权（行权价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中有大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，三角洲对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对冲其头寸的期权交易者是净多头 ATM 期权，则与到期相关的流动可能会产生抑制股价变动的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约结算在罢工点附近。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大投资者来说，这是一种理想的情况。或者，如果delta-hedgers是净空头ATM期权（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致拥有大量 ATM 未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助希望抓住日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，确定了今天到期的大量 ATM 未平仓合约的可能重点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约在股票成交量中占很大比例，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在 SpotGamma 的朋友们写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的、近乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙像这样 “突破 ”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，比如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，并将在一篇较长的文章中发布”。</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动性现在已经被压缩（即VIX在新低），现在有更大的潜力出现“长期”波动性。回想一下，最近市场的任何急剧、剧烈下跌是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些突破下跌与创纪录的 VIX 峰值同时发生，但反思性的snap回购将带来与 VIX（即隐含波动率）逆转同等强度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma 的另一个奇怪观察结果：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动性非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或触及支撑位，隐含的波动性就会迅速回落。<b>我们经常想到这个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确!）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含的波动性就会下降。</b>因此，正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购推动反弹的空头对冲。SG 的结论： 目前较低的隐含波动率水平为市场提供了更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始，“减缓”了这种反应灵敏的 “snap回调 ”买入机制。此外，当 IV 较低时，伽马值较高，因此伽马翻转可能会有更多的作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351534733,"gmtCreate":1616602145422,"gmtModify":1634524956723,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please ensure it’s safe to use instead of looking for profit","listText":"Please ensure it’s safe to use instead of looking for profit","text":"Please ensure it’s safe to use instead of looking for profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351534733","repostId":"1159624378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195181222,"gmtCreate":1621262468266,"gmtModify":1634192933424,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Already tip top liao","listText":"Already tip top liao","text":"Already tip top liao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195181222","repostId":"1124436775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124436775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621262168,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124436775?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-17 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Walmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124436775","media":"Barrons","summary":"High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reportin","content":"<p>High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as&nbsp;Walmart&nbsp;will on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>经营企业时，高标准是伟大的。对于一家公司来说，公布财报可能会很艰难，沃尔玛周二就会如此。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计沃尔玛第一财季营收为 1,322 亿美元，每股收益为 1.21 美元。相比之下，上季度每股收益为 1.39 美元，去年同期为 1.18 美元，去年同期收入为 1346 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.</p><p><blockquote>如果以最近的历史为指导，沃尔玛将超过这些数字--但这对该股来说还不够好，因为自大流行病开始以来，每次发布财报后，沃尔玛的股价都会下跌。虽然人们对它打破这种格局的希望渺茫，但在过去的一年里，投资者一直将这家零售巨头置于最高标准，而且这种情况似乎不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 大流行给沃尔玛带来了多大的推动，怎么强调都不为过。作为一家重要的零售商，它能够在危机开始时保持营业——随着消费者预计会在家里度过更多时间而囤积库存，从而获得了好处。即使限制放松，疫苗接种提供了一条恢复正常的道路，沃尔玛及其大型零售同行仍继续蓬勃发展。在刺激支票以及餐饮和旅行支出减少的推动下，消费者渴望在 2020 年的大部分时间里进行消费。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its&nbsp;first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than&nbsp;Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管沃尔玛的股价在 2020 年表现出色，但它的股票对 Covid 带来的打击反应并不理想。沃尔玛于当年 5 月中旬公布了 2020 年第一季度的业绩，这是新冠疫情封锁后公布的第一季度业绩。数字不错，但股价下跌了 2.1%。同样的事情发生在 8 月份，当时投资者担心沃尔玛的同店销售额增长速度低于塔吉特百货（TGT）；11 月份，沃尔玛的盈利超出了预期，但沃尔玛的股价却下跌了，尽管其股价在 2020 年结束时上涨了 21%。</blockquote></p><p> Not so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年就不是这样了。尽管沃尔玛报告销售额达到创纪录的 1,520 亿美元，但盈利未达预期，股价下跌 6.5%。沃尔玛股价今年仍下跌 3.2%，与上涨 20% 的塔吉特百货相比，这更加令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> On some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments&nbsp;and&nbsp;fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在某些层面上，沃尔玛和塔吉特百货之间的比较并不是一对一的。凭借海外投资和金融科技企业，沃尔玛是一家更大、更复杂的公司。塔吉特的规模较小，这给了它更大的发展空间，尤其是在它刚刚成功扭亏为盈，摆脱了早期全渠道努力和加拿大扩张中的失误后，就进入了大流行病时期。塔吉特的核心客户也稍微富裕一些，反过来也不太依赖刺激支票来度过大流行病。</blockquote></p><p> That’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that&nbsp;membership sign-ups may be lagging&nbsp;at its&nbsp;subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle&nbsp;more with inflation&nbsp;pushing up prices for&nbsp;many consumer goods.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这对投资者来说是冰冷的安慰，尤其是因为沃尔玛股价可能难以打破财报后的连跌。多位分析师警告称，其订阅服务 Walmart+ 的会员注册可能滞后。由于通货膨胀推高了许多消费品的价格，沃尔玛的低收入购物者也可能面临更大的困境。</blockquote></p><p> The latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.</p><p><blockquote>最新一轮政府刺激措施帮助 3 月份零售额跃升至大流行时代的高点，而美国消费者信心在 4 月份达到 14 个月以来的最高水平，这两个数据点都意味着沃尔玛报告强于预期的可能性增加同店销售额，预计将增长 1.1%。然而，该公司在一年前同店销售额增长 1.3% 后，面临着严峻的同比比较。目前还不清楚投资者是会奖励销售放缓，还是会惩罚销售放缓。</blockquote></p><p> If it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.</p><p><blockquote>如果是后者，该股在发行后仍有可能面临一场艰苦的战斗--要么击败，要么不击败。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Walmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWalmart Reports Earnings Tuesday. Why Even a Beat Might Not Help the Stock.<blockquote>沃尔玛周二公布财报。为什么即使是打击也可能对股票没有帮助。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-17 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as&nbsp;Walmart&nbsp;will on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>经营企业时，高标准是伟大的。对于一家公司来说，公布财报可能会很艰难，沃尔玛周二就会如此。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计沃尔玛第一财季营收为 1,322 亿美元，每股收益为 1.21 美元。相比之下，上季度每股收益为 1.39 美元，去年同期为 1.18 美元，去年同期收入为 1346 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> If recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.</p><p><blockquote>如果以最近的历史为指导，沃尔玛将超过这些数字--但这对该股来说还不够好，因为自大流行病开始以来，每次发布财报后，沃尔玛的股价都会下跌。虽然人们对它打破这种格局的希望渺茫，但在过去的一年里，投资者一直将这家零售巨头置于最高标准，而且这种情况似乎不会改变。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19 大流行给沃尔玛带来了多大的推动，怎么强调都不为过。作为一家重要的零售商，它能够在危机开始时保持营业——随着消费者预计会在家里度过更多时间而囤积库存，从而获得了好处。即使限制放松，疫苗接种提供了一条恢复正常的道路，沃尔玛及其大型零售同行仍继续蓬勃发展。在刺激支票以及餐饮和旅行支出减少的推动下，消费者渴望在 2020 年的大部分时间里进行消费。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its&nbsp;first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than&nbsp;Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管沃尔玛的股价在 2020 年表现出色，但它的股票对 Covid 带来的打击反应并不理想。沃尔玛于当年 5 月中旬公布了 2020 年第一季度的业绩，这是新冠疫情封锁后公布的第一季度业绩。数字不错，但股价下跌了 2.1%。同样的事情发生在 8 月份，当时投资者担心沃尔玛的同店销售额增长速度低于塔吉特百货（TGT）；11 月份，沃尔玛的盈利超出了预期，但沃尔玛的股价却下跌了，尽管其股价在 2020 年结束时上涨了 21%。</blockquote></p><p> Not so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年就不是这样了。尽管沃尔玛报告销售额达到创纪录的 1,520 亿美元，但盈利未达预期，股价下跌 6.5%。沃尔玛股价今年仍下跌 3.2%，与上涨 20% 的塔吉特百货相比，这更加令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> On some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments&nbsp;and&nbsp;fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在某些层面上，沃尔玛和塔吉特百货之间的比较并不是一对一的。凭借海外投资和金融科技企业，沃尔玛是一家更大、更复杂的公司。塔吉特的规模较小，这给了它更大的发展空间，尤其是在它刚刚成功扭亏为盈，摆脱了早期全渠道努力和加拿大扩张中的失误后，就进入了大流行病时期。塔吉特的核心客户也稍微富裕一些，反过来也不太依赖刺激支票来度过大流行病。</blockquote></p><p> That’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that&nbsp;membership sign-ups may be lagging&nbsp;at its&nbsp;subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle&nbsp;more with inflation&nbsp;pushing up prices for&nbsp;many consumer goods.</p><p><blockquote>不过，这对投资者来说是冰冷的安慰，尤其是因为沃尔玛股价可能难以打破财报后的连跌。多位分析师警告称，其订阅服务 Walmart+ 的会员注册可能滞后。由于通货膨胀推高了许多消费品的价格，沃尔玛的低收入购物者也可能面临更大的困境。</blockquote></p><p> The latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.</p><p><blockquote>最新一轮政府刺激措施帮助 3 月份零售额跃升至大流行时代的高点，而美国消费者信心在 4 月份达到 14 个月以来的最高水平，这两个数据点都意味着沃尔玛报告强于预期的可能性增加同店销售额，预计将增长 1.1%。然而，该公司在一年前同店销售额增长 1.3% 后，面临着严峻的同比比较。目前还不清楚投资者是会奖励销售放缓，还是会惩罚销售放缓。</blockquote></p><p> If it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.</p><p><blockquote>如果是后者，该股在发行后仍有可能面临一场艰苦的战斗--要么击败，要么不击败。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/walmart-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-even-a-beat-might-not-help-the-stock-51621203579?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/walmart-reports-earnings-tuesday-why-even-a-beat-might-not-help-the-stock-51621203579?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124436775","content_text":"High standards are great when it comes to running a business. It can be tough for a company reporting earnings, as Walmart will on Tuesday.\nAnalysts are looking for Walmart to earn $1.21 a share on revenue of $132.2 billion for its fiscal first quarter. That compares to per-share earnings of $1.39 last quarter and $1.18 in the year-ago period, and revenue of $134.6 billion a year ago.\nIf recent history is any guide, Walmart will beat those numbers—but that won’t be good enough for the stock, which has dropped following every earnings release since the pandemic started. While there is a slim hope it could break that pattern, investors have held the retail giant to the highest of standards over the past year, and that doesn’t look like it will change.\nIt’s hard to overstate how much of a boost Walmart has seen from the Covid-19 pandemic. As an essential retailer, it was able to stay open at the start of the crisis—reaping the benefits as consumers stocked up in anticipation of spending more time at home. And even as restrictions loosened and vaccinations offered a path back to normalcy, Walmart and its large retail peers continued to thrive. Consumers, bolstered by stimulus checks and spending less on dining and travel, were eager to spend throughout much of 2020.\nWalmart stock didn’t respond well to those Covid-driven beats, although its shares had a great 2020. Walmart reported its first quarter of 2020, the first reported after Covid lockdowns, in mid-May of that year. The numbers were fine, but the stock dropped 2.1%. The same thing happened in August, when investors fretted that Walmart’s same-store sales were growing at a slower pace than Target’s(TGT), and again in November, when earnings beat expectations but Walmart was rewarded with a falling stock, even if the shares managed to finish 2020 up 21%.\nNot so in 2021. Despite reporting record sales of $152 billion, Walmart missed earnings, and the stock fell 6.5%. Walmart stock is still down 3.2% this year, and that’s even more disappointing when compared with Target, which has gained 20%.\nOn some levels, the comparison between Walmart and Target isn’t an apples-to-apples. With itsoverseas investments and fintech ventures, Walmart is a bigger and more complex company. Target’s smaller size has given it more room to grow, especially as it entered the pandemic fresh off a successful turnaround, pivoting from missteps in its early omnichannel efforts and Canadian expansion. Target’s core customers are slightly wealthier as well, and in turn less dependent on stimulus checks to weather the pandemic.\nThat’s cold comfort for investors, however, especially because Walmart stock might struggle to break its post-earnings losing streak. Multiple analysts have warned that membership sign-ups may be lagging at its subscription service Walmart+. Walmart’s lower-income shoppers may also struggle more with inflation pushing up prices for many consumer goods.\nThe latest round of government stimulus helped retail sales leap in March to a pandemic-era high, while U.S. consumer confidence reached its highest levels in 14 months in April, and both data points mean increased odds that Walmart could report stronger-than-expected same-store sales, which are predicted to rise 1.1%. The company, however, faces tough year-over-year comparisons after growing same-store sales at a 1.3% clip one year ago. It’s unclear whether investors will reward a beat or punish slower sales.\nIf it’s the latter, the stock could still have an uphill battle after the release—beat or no beat.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354794673,"gmtCreate":1617200232192,"gmtModify":1634522097707,"author":{"id":"3575365928794226","authorId":"3575365928794226","name":"Jason138","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad85b6a3945a01527a3e64577bb8276","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575365928794226","authorIdStr":"3575365928794226"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good?","listText":"Good?","text":"Good?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354794673","repostId":"2123220890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}