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0勋章

2021-09-05

Great!!! Like pls

Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>

2021-09-12

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2021-07-08

It will drop..

U.S. FDA narrows patient group for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug<blockquote>美国FDA缩小百健阿尔茨海默病药物患者群体范围</blockquote>

2021-09-29

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2021-09-27

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Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>

2021-07-10

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2021-07-05

Like pls!!

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>

2021-06-30

Nope! It will just rise!!

Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要崩溃吗？</blockquote>

2021-10-01

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2021-07-05

Great!

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pls!!","listText":"Like pls!!","text":"Like pls!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859825606","repostId":"2176710436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859022245,"gmtCreate":1634642052633,"gmtModify":1634642072315,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!! Up up!!","listText":"Nice!! Up up!!","text":"Nice!! Up up!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859022245","repostId":"1198851965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198851965","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634623112,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198851965?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-19 13:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198851965","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQ3 street estimates seems rather low.\nMargin strength could lead to large beat.\nInvestors l","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q3 street estimates seems rather low.</li>  <li>Margin strength could lead to large beat.</li>  <li>Investors looking for comments on supply chain issues.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5041f66900bbf640321835328ad686ba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度华尔街的估计似乎相当低。</li><li>保证金强度可能会导致大幅上涨。</li><li>寻求供应链问题评论的投资者。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced&nbsp;record production and deliveries&nbsp;for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）将于10月20日星期三盘后公布第三季度业绩，所有人的目光都将集中在该公司身上。最近，该公司宣布本季度创纪录的产量和交付量超出了分析师的预期。然而，华尔街对第三季度的预期并没有像人们预期的那样上升，这可能会导致本周另一份井喷式的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> For the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，初步交付量为241,300辆，比华尔街预期高出近20,000辆。今年第二季度，每辆交付车辆的平均收入（包括监管信贷销售）略低于50,700美元。如果你基本上四舍五入，数学告诉你，这样规模的节拍应该相当于额外的10亿美元收入。在这份报告中，华尔街第三季度的平均市值正好是130亿美元，但看看我们现在的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6077ce9974face1a7cfbeabe2e93e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"73\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha分析师预估页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.</p><p><blockquote>尽管交付量大幅增长，但街头平均水平甚至没有上升6.5亿美元，因此目前的共识似乎有点低。此外，“低”估计似乎完全出乎意料，因为尽管交付量增加了约40,000辆，但这将意味着第二季度的营收数字有所下降。别忘了，Model S现金交付量环比增长约6,000辆，按平均售价10万美元计算，仅收入就增加了6亿美元。剔除较低的估计值将使街头平均价格增加1亿美元。除非有一些大规模折扣或前期调整，否则任何130亿美元左右或以下的收入估计似乎都不符合逻辑。</blockquote></p><p> Model Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Model Y在欧洲的销售、更多Model S的销售（包括昂贵的Plaid）以及美国整整一个季度的提价都应该是有利因素。随着本季度美元小幅走强，中国的标准Y区间将带来一定程度的阻力。然而，随着该计划在本季度有所扩大，特斯拉可能会确认与其全自动驾驶功能相关的数亿美元递延收入。我还预计信贷销售额将环比下降1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>也许本季度最大的问题将是利润率。所有这些价格上涨、更多Model Y和新款Model S的组合以及中国产量的增加应该是积极的，有可能抵消部分或全部供应链或芯片短缺的通胀。在我的基本案例中，我假设汽车总毛利率增加了一个百分点，即从第一季度到第二季度跃升190个基点的一半多一点。正如我通常所做的那样，下表显示了熊市、基本市和牛市的情况，除每股金额外，美元价值均以数百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f864f8d975853337e47b5f88687b983\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.</p><p><blockquote>我肯定会有批评者认为我只是想设定一个很高的标准，这样特斯拉就无法击败我的基本情况。这在这里不是真的，因为在收入方面，我甚至不到街头平均水平和街头高估计之间的一半。就底线而言，我什至不认为特斯拉会像第二季度那样上涨（47美分）。此外，使用过去三年从第二季度到第三季度非GAAP每股收益的平均增幅，我们的每股收益将略高于2美元，我仍然呼吁在那里使用一个手柄。如果特斯拉的净利润未达到预期，毛利率就必须环比下降约一个百分点。即便如此，收入的小幅增长或运营费用的节省仍可能推动利润的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's&nbsp;specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注的另一个主要项目是特斯拉生产设施的最新情况。上海3/Y的产量现在似乎超过了弗里蒙特，柏林和德克萨斯州的工厂仍有望在今年开业。如果该公司想在2022年实现50%的年增长率，这可能意味着交付量超过130万辆，则需要这些设施在未来几个月内上线。任何特定于特斯拉的延迟持续到新的一年，也可能会影响其他已经推迟的新产品（Semi、Cybertruck、new Roadster），并让竞争对手可能窃取一些市场份额。过去几天，特斯拉从其网站上删除了Cybertruck的规格和价格。这可能与该产品推出以来大宗商品成本飙升有关，这可能意味着特斯拉将在生产最终开始时提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> As for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.</p><p><blockquote>至于特斯拉股价，目前正处于非常好的上升趋势，并在第三季度交付报告发布后稳步突破800美元。如下图所示，50日移动平均线（粉色线）已回到长期移动平均线（紫色线200日）上方。该股周五收盘价较历史高点不到60美元，因此这里唯一的担忧可能是收益报告可能是旧的“买入谣言，卖出新闻”类型的事件。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6c847a0a536db8d53da68a6fbbbeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎！金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于本周公布第三季度收益，如果我们看到该公司再次表现出色，我不会感到惊讶。鉴于交付量环比大幅增长，华尔街的一些预期似乎有点低，任何利润率的增加都可能意味着利润的大幅增长。投资者将关注产能的最新情况，不仅是为了了解柏林和德克萨斯是否接近准备就绪，还开始考虑特斯拉明年的交付量超过100万辆。看看该股随后的反应肯定会很有趣，因为最近的反弹可能意味着投资者正在消化另一次大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Q3: Blowout Possible Again<blockquote>特斯拉第三季度：井喷可能再次发生</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-19 13:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Q3 street estimates seems rather low.</li>  <li>Margin strength could lead to large beat.</li>  <li>Investors looking for comments on supply chain issues.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5041f66900bbf640321835328ad686ba\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"793\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三季度华尔街的估计似乎相当低。</li><li>保证金强度可能会导致大幅上涨。</li><li>寻求供应链问题评论的投资者。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AdrianHancu/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced&nbsp;record production and deliveries&nbsp;for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）将于10月20日星期三盘后公布第三季度业绩，所有人的目光都将集中在该公司身上。最近，该公司宣布本季度创纪录的产量和交付量超出了分析师的预期。然而，华尔街对第三季度的预期并没有像人们预期的那样上升，这可能会导致本周另一份井喷式的收益报告。</blockquote></p><p> For the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.</p><p><blockquote>在此期间，初步交付量为241,300辆，比华尔街预期高出近20,000辆。今年第二季度，每辆交付车辆的平均收入（包括监管信贷销售）略低于50,700美元。如果你基本上四舍五入，数学告诉你，这样规模的节拍应该相当于额外的10亿美元收入。在这份报告中，华尔街第三季度的平均市值正好是130亿美元，但看看我们现在的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6077ce9974face1a7cfbeabe2e93e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"73\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha分析师预估页面</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.</p><p><blockquote>尽管交付量大幅增长，但街头平均水平甚至没有上升6.5亿美元，因此目前的共识似乎有点低。此外，“低”估计似乎完全出乎意料，因为尽管交付量增加了约40,000辆，但这将意味着第二季度的营收数字有所下降。别忘了，Model S现金交付量环比增长约6,000辆，按平均售价10万美元计算，仅收入就增加了6亿美元。剔除较低的估计值将使街头平均价格增加1亿美元。除非有一些大规模折扣或前期调整，否则任何130亿美元左右或以下的收入估计似乎都不符合逻辑。</blockquote></p><p> Model Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.</p><p><blockquote>Model Y在欧洲的销售、更多Model S的销售（包括昂贵的Plaid）以及美国整整一个季度的提价都应该是有利因素。随着本季度美元小幅走强，中国的标准Y区间将带来一定程度的阻力。然而，随着该计划在本季度有所扩大，特斯拉可能会确认与其全自动驾驶功能相关的数亿美元递延收入。我还预计信贷销售额将环比下降1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>也许本季度最大的问题将是利润率。所有这些价格上涨、更多Model Y和新款Model S的组合以及中国产量的增加应该是积极的，有可能抵消部分或全部供应链或芯片短缺的通胀。在我的基本案例中，我假设汽车总毛利率增加了一个百分点，即从第一季度到第二季度跃升190个基点的一半多一点。正如我通常所做的那样，下表显示了熊市、基本市和牛市的情况，除每股金额外，美元价值均以数百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f864f8d975853337e47b5f88687b983\" tg-width=\"551\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.</p><p><blockquote>我肯定会有批评者认为我只是想设定一个很高的标准，这样特斯拉就无法击败我的基本情况。这在这里不是真的，因为在收入方面，我甚至不到街头平均水平和街头高估计之间的一半。就底线而言，我什至不认为特斯拉会像第二季度那样上涨（47美分）。此外，使用过去三年从第二季度到第三季度非GAAP每股收益的平均增幅，我们的每股收益将略高于2美元，我仍然呼吁在那里使用一个手柄。如果特斯拉的净利润未达到预期，毛利率就必须环比下降约一个百分点。即便如此，收入的小幅增长或运营费用的节省仍可能推动利润的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's&nbsp;specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注的另一个主要项目是特斯拉生产设施的最新情况。上海3/Y的产量现在似乎超过了弗里蒙特，柏林和德克萨斯州的工厂仍有望在今年开业。如果该公司想在2022年实现50%的年增长率，这可能意味着交付量超过130万辆，则需要这些设施在未来几个月内上线。任何特定于特斯拉的延迟持续到新的一年，也可能会影响其他已经推迟的新产品（Semi、Cybertruck、new Roadster），并让竞争对手可能窃取一些市场份额。过去几天，特斯拉从其网站上删除了Cybertruck的规格和价格。这可能与该产品推出以来大宗商品成本飙升有关，这可能意味着特斯拉将在生产最终开始时提高价格。</blockquote></p><p> As for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.</p><p><blockquote>至于特斯拉股价，目前正处于非常好的上升趋势，并在第三季度交付报告发布后稳步突破800美元。如下图所示，50日移动平均线（粉色线）已回到长期移动平均线（紫色线200日）上方。该股周五收盘价较历史高点不到60美元，因此这里唯一的担忧可能是收益报告可能是旧的“买入谣言，卖出新闻”类型的事件。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6c847a0a536db8d53da68a6fbbbeac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo! Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：雅虎！金融</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将于本周公布第三季度收益，如果我们看到该公司再次表现出色，我不会感到惊讶。鉴于交付量环比大幅增长，华尔街的一些预期似乎有点低，任何利润率的增加都可能意味着利润的大幅增长。投资者将关注产能的最新情况，不仅是为了了解柏林和德克萨斯是否接近准备就绪，还开始考虑特斯拉明年的交付量超过100万辆。看看该股随后的反应肯定会很有趣，因为最近的反弹可能意味着投资者正在消化另一次大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460443-tesla-stock-blowout-q3-possible-again\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460443-tesla-stock-blowout-q3-possible-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198851965","content_text":"Summary\n\nQ3 street estimates seems rather low.\nMargin strength could lead to large beat.\nInvestors looking for comments on supply chain issues.\n\nAdrianHancu/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAll eyes will be on electric vehicle maker Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)as the company reports its third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, October 20th. Recently, the company announced record production and deliveries for the quarter that smashed analyst expectations. However, street estimates for Q3 haven't risen as much as one might expect, which could lead to another blowout earnings report this week.\nFor the period, preliminary deliveries of 241,300 beat street estimates by nearly 20,000 units. In Q2 of this year, the average revenue per vehicle delivered (including regulatory credit sales) was just under $50,700. If you basically round off, the math tells you that a beat of that size should equal about an extra billion dollars in revenue. Going into the report, the street was exactly at $13 billion for its Q3 average, but take a look at where we are now.\nSource: Seeking Alpha analyst estimates page\nDespite the large deliveries beat, the street average hasn't even risen by $650 million, so the consensus seems to be a bit low right now. Additionally, the \"low\" estimate seems completely off base, as that would represent a decline over Q2's top line figure despite an extra roughly 40,000 deliveries. Don't forget, the sequential jump in Model S cash deliveries was around 6,000 units, which at an average selling price of $100,000 is an additional $600 million in revenue alone. Taking the low estimate out would increase the street average by $100 million. Unless there was some massive discounting going on or some prior period adjustment, any revenue estimates around or below $13 billion just don't seem logical.\nModel Y sales to Europe, more Model S sales (including the expensive Plaid), and a full quarter of price raises in the US should all be tailwinds. The standard range Y in China will provide somewhat of a headwind, along with a slightly stronger dollar in the quarter. However, Tesla may be able to potentially recognize hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred revenue related to its full self-driving feature as that program expanded a bit during the quarter. I also am projecting a $100 million sequential decline in credit sales.\nPerhaps the biggest question in the quarter will be margins. All of those price hikes, the mix of more Model Y and new Model S, and the ramp of production in China should be positives, potentially offsetting some or all supply chain or chip shortage inflation. In my base case, I'm assuming that total automotive gross margins increase by one percentage point, or a little more than half of the 190 basis points they jumped from Q1 to Q2. As I usually do, the table below shows a bear, base, and bull case, with dollar values in millions except per share amounts.\nI'm sure there will be critics who think I'm just trying to set a high bar so that Tesla cannot beat my base case. That is not true here, as on the revenue side I'm not even halfway between the street average and the high estimate on the street. On the bottom line, I'm not even calling for Tesla to beat by as much as it did in Q2 (47 cents). Also, using the average jump from Q2 to Q3 non-GAAP earnings per share over the past three years would put us a bit above $2 per share, and I'm still calling for a one handle there. For Tesla to miss estimates on the bottom line, gross margins would have to drop by about a percentage point sequentially. Even then, a little revenue upside or savings on the operating expense lines could still fuel a bottom line beat.\nThe other major item investors will be watching for is an update on Tesla's production facilities. It appears that Shanghai 3/Y production is now greater than Fremont's, and the Berlin and Texas factories are still on track to open this year. The company needs these facilities to come online in the next few months if it wants to hit a 50% yearly growth rate for 2022, likely meaning over 1.3 million deliveries. Any Tesla-specific delays that linger meaningfully into the new year may also impact other new products (Semi, Cybertruck, new Roadster) that have already been delayed a bit, as well as allowing the competition to potentially steal some market share. In the past few days, Tesla removed the Cybertruck's specifications and prices from its website. This may have to do with surging commodity costs since that product was unveiled, and it likely means Tesla will raise prices when production finally starts.\nAs for Tesla shares, they are currently in a very nice uptrend and have broken solidly above $800 after the Q3 delivery report. As the chart below shows, the 50-day moving average (pink line) has crossed back above its longer term counterpart (200-day in purple). The stock closed Friday less than $60 from its all-time high, so the only concern here might be that the earnings report could be the old \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" type of event.\nSource: Yahoo! Finance\nTesla is set to report Q3 earnings this week, and it would not surprise me if we see the company beat again. Given the sharp sequential rise in deliveries, the street seems a bit low with some of its estimates, and any margin increases would likely mean a significant bottom line beat. Investors will be looking for updates on production capacities, not only to see if Berlin and Texas are close to being ready, but to start thinking about how far over one million deliveries Tesla could get next year. It certainly will be interesting to see the stock's reaction afterwards, as the recent rally may mean investors are pricing in another big beat.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827030112,"gmtCreate":1634364716783,"gmtModify":1634364717065,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827030112","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825212577,"gmtCreate":1634227219177,"gmtModify":1634227219177,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825212577","repostId":"1108820000","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108820000","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634225594,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108820000?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 23:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading<blockquote>Ocugen股价早盘上涨逾10%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108820000","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading.The share rose more than 40% this week.\n\nThe bi","content":"<p>Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading.The share&nbsp;rose more than 40% this week.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen股价早盘上涨超过10%。该股本周上涨超过40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6529ae3a1b252bbc25776ab15e3e3c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biotech's stock is moving northward this morning on the news that the COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin, was granted emergency use approval for children ages 2 to 18 by India's Subject Expert Committee. This vaccine is among the first to receive such a broad emergency use authorization label in the entire world.</p><p><blockquote>印度生物技术公司的股票今天上午向北移动，因为有消息称，新冠肺炎疫苗科瓦克辛获得了印度主题专家委员会对2至18岁儿童的紧急使用批准。这种疫苗是全世界首批获得如此广泛的紧急使用授权标签的疫苗之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is partnered with India's Bharat Biotech to commercialize Covaxin in Canada and the United States. The pair are now waiting on word from the World Health Organization on the vaccine's emergency use application. This critical regulatory decision is expected any day now.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen与印度的Bharat Biotech合作，在加拿大和美国将科瓦克辛商业化。两人现在正在等待世界卫生组织关于疫苗紧急使用申请的消息。这一关键的监管决定预计随时都会做出。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen's goal is to become an important second- to third-tier COVID-19 vaccine player in key developed markets like Canada and the United States. The problem with this strategy is that there are already a surfeit of novel coronavirus vaccines in these high-value territories, with more on the way.<b>Novavax</b>'s highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine known as NVX-CoV2373, for example, should be available in the U.S. early in 2022. As a result, it's not entirely clear how much of a commercial opportunity will be left for late-comers like Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen的目标是成为加拿大和美国等主要发达市场重要的二至三线COVID-19疫苗参与者。这种策略的问题在于，在这些高价值地区，新型冠状病毒疫苗已经过剩，而且还会有更多疫苗。<b>Novavax</b>例如，备受期待的COVID-19疫苗NVX-CoV2373将于2022年初在美国上市。因此，目前还不完全清楚像Ocugen这样的后来者会留下多少商业机会。</blockquote></p><p> Is Ocugen's stock a buy on this news? This is an extremely positive regulatory development, to be sure. But it is unlikely to have any bearing on the vaccine's regulatory fate in either Canada or the United States.</p><p><blockquote>受此消息影响，Ocugen的股票值得买入吗？可以肯定的是，这是一个极其积极的监管发展。但这不太可能对该疫苗在加拿大或美国的监管命运产生任何影响。</blockquote></p><p> That said, the biotech's shares should still perform well over the long term. If the vaccine can carve out a profitable niche in these increasingly crowded markets where the company owns a commercial license, Ocugen could end up with a healthy and perhaps fairly long-lived revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，从长远来看，该生物技术公司的股价仍应表现良好。如果该疫苗能够在该公司拥有商业许可证的日益拥挤的市场中开辟一个有利可图的利基市场，那么Ocugen最终可能会获得健康且或许相当长期的收入流。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading<blockquote>Ocugen股价早盘上涨逾10%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading<blockquote>Ocugen股价早盘上涨逾10%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-14 23:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading.The share&nbsp;rose more than 40% this week.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen股价早盘上涨超过10%。该股本周上涨超过40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6529ae3a1b252bbc25776ab15e3e3c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biotech's stock is moving northward this morning on the news that the COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin, was granted emergency use approval for children ages 2 to 18 by India's Subject Expert Committee. This vaccine is among the first to receive such a broad emergency use authorization label in the entire world.</p><p><blockquote>印度生物技术公司的股票今天上午向北移动，因为有消息称，新冠肺炎疫苗科瓦克辛获得了印度主题专家委员会对2至18岁儿童的紧急使用批准。这种疫苗是全世界首批获得如此广泛的紧急使用授权标签的疫苗之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is partnered with India's Bharat Biotech to commercialize Covaxin in Canada and the United States. The pair are now waiting on word from the World Health Organization on the vaccine's emergency use application. This critical regulatory decision is expected any day now.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen与印度的Bharat Biotech合作，在加拿大和美国将科瓦克辛商业化。两人现在正在等待世界卫生组织关于疫苗紧急使用申请的消息。这一关键的监管决定预计随时都会做出。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen's goal is to become an important second- to third-tier COVID-19 vaccine player in key developed markets like Canada and the United States. The problem with this strategy is that there are already a surfeit of novel coronavirus vaccines in these high-value territories, with more on the way.<b>Novavax</b>'s highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine known as NVX-CoV2373, for example, should be available in the U.S. early in 2022. As a result, it's not entirely clear how much of a commercial opportunity will be left for late-comers like Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen的目标是成为加拿大和美国等主要发达市场重要的二至三线COVID-19疫苗参与者。这种策略的问题在于，在这些高价值地区，新型冠状病毒疫苗已经过剩，而且还会有更多疫苗。<b>Novavax</b>例如，备受期待的COVID-19疫苗NVX-CoV2373将于2022年初在美国上市。因此，目前还不完全清楚像Ocugen这样的后来者会留下多少商业机会。</blockquote></p><p> Is Ocugen's stock a buy on this news? This is an extremely positive regulatory development, to be sure. But it is unlikely to have any bearing on the vaccine's regulatory fate in either Canada or the United States.</p><p><blockquote>受此消息影响，Ocugen的股票值得买入吗？可以肯定的是，这是一个极其积极的监管发展。但这不太可能对该疫苗在加拿大或美国的监管命运产生任何影响。</blockquote></p><p> That said, the biotech's shares should still perform well over the long term. If the vaccine can carve out a profitable niche in these increasingly crowded markets where the company owns a commercial license, Ocugen could end up with a healthy and perhaps fairly long-lived revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，从长远来看，该生物技术公司的股价仍应表现良好。如果该疫苗能够在该公司拥有商业许可证的日益拥挤的市场中开辟一个有利可图的利基市场，那么Ocugen最终可能会获得健康且或许相当长期的收入流。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108820000","content_text":"Ocugen stock jumped more than 10% in morning trading.The share rose more than 40% this week.\n\nThe biotech's stock is moving northward this morning on the news that the COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin, was granted emergency use approval for children ages 2 to 18 by India's Subject Expert Committee. This vaccine is among the first to receive such a broad emergency use authorization label in the entire world.\nOcugen is partnered with India's Bharat Biotech to commercialize Covaxin in Canada and the United States. The pair are now waiting on word from the World Health Organization on the vaccine's emergency use application. This critical regulatory decision is expected any day now.\nOcugen's goal is to become an important second- to third-tier COVID-19 vaccine player in key developed markets like Canada and the United States. The problem with this strategy is that there are already a surfeit of novel coronavirus vaccines in these high-value territories, with more on the way.Novavax's highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine known as NVX-CoV2373, for example, should be available in the U.S. early in 2022. As a result, it's not entirely clear how much of a commercial opportunity will be left for late-comers like Ocugen.\nIs Ocugen's stock a buy on this news? This is an extremely positive regulatory development, to be sure. But it is unlikely to have any bearing on the vaccine's regulatory fate in either Canada or the United States.\nThat said, the biotech's shares should still perform well over the long term. If the vaccine can carve out a profitable niche in these increasingly crowded markets where the company owns a commercial license, Ocugen could end up with a healthy and perhaps fairly long-lived revenue stream.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822215628,"gmtCreate":1634134333390,"gmtModify":1634134333485,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822215628","repostId":"1155202922","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155202922","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634133901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155202922?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>航空、邮轮和银行股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155202922","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading.","content":"<p>Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空、邮轮和银行股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170a848bdb8d9df6aac064350be93df9\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edda66dde88fc8119015bf68cd100f80\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51775b4b2efca14f1f5078de1ae25948\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>航空、邮轮和银行股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>航空、邮轮和银行股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 22:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>航空、邮轮和银行股早盘下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170a848bdb8d9df6aac064350be93df9\" tg-width=\"411\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edda66dde88fc8119015bf68cd100f80\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51775b4b2efca14f1f5078de1ae25948\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAVE":"Spirit Airlines","AAL":"美国航空","LUV":"西南航空","BA":"波音","C":"花旗","BAC":"美国银行","WFC":"富国银行","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","RCL":"皇家加勒比邮轮","DAL":"达美航空","GS":"高盛","JBLU":"捷蓝航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空","MS":"摩根士丹利","JPM":"摩根大通","NCLH":"挪威邮轮","TD":"道明银行"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155202922","content_text":"Aviation,Cruise Line and bank stocks dipped in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LUV":0.9,"C":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"NCLH":0.9,"SAVE":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"CCL":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"BA":0.9,"RCL":0.9,"JBLU":0.9,"TD":0.9,"MS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"AAL":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826044916,"gmtCreate":1633961213185,"gmtModify":1633961213298,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls!!","listText":"Like pls!!","text":"Like pls!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826044916","repostId":"1180287437","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821147450,"gmtCreate":1633710001100,"gmtModify":1633710157295,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Loke","listText":"Loke","text":"Loke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821147450","repostId":"2173925535","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829700221,"gmtCreate":1633541759168,"gmtModify":1633541759443,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829700221","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864160263,"gmtCreate":1633074817584,"gmtModify":1633074817856,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864160263","repostId":"2172951249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865108666,"gmtCreate":1632959230203,"gmtModify":1632959230459,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865108666","repostId":"2171115602","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2171115602","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632935460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2171115602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 01:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading<blockquote>眼镜制造商Warby Parker首日交易股价飙升34%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2171115602","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading.\n\nNYSE assigns reference price of ","content":"<p>Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>眼镜制造商Warby Parker首日交易股价飙升34%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f145f99950734ec9b0e3b675836a53fb\" tg-width=\"1836\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NYSE assigns reference price of $40, trading&nbsp;to begin Wednesday</p><p><blockquote>纽交所指定参考价为40美元，周三开始交易</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5917e3b384716a3bbcfdd5860b35711f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warby Parker is focused on both business and giving back, the prospectus says.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>招股说明书称，Warby Parker专注于业务和回馈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRBY\">Warby Parker Inc.</a>, the company known for its affordable eyeglasses sold online, through its app and in stores, is begining trading Wednesday in a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRBY\">沃比·帕克公司。</a>该公司以通过其应用程序和商店在线销售平价眼镜而闻名，将于周三开始直接上市交易。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the New York Stock Exchange assigned a $40 reference price to the New York City-based company's listing, which is expected to begin trading Wednesday under the ticker symbol \"WRBY\" . The company has about 111.5 million shares outstanding, giving it a valuation around $4.6 billion at that reference price.</p><p><blockquote>周二，纽约证券交易所为这家总部位于纽约市的公司的上市设定了40美元的参考价，预计将于周三开始交易，股票代码为“WRBY”。该公司拥有约1.115亿股已发行股票，按该参考价计算，其估值约为46亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Reference prices for direct listings are based on trading prices in private markets ahead of companies filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a public listing. Direct listings differ from IPOs because there is no capital raised, which is what places a dollar figure on shares in an IPO. Direct listings are largely expected to trade higher than the reference price.</p><p><blockquote>直接上市的参考价格基于公司向美国证券交易委员会提交公开上市申请之前私募市场的交易价格。直接上市不同于首次公开募股，因为没有筹集资金，这就是首次公开募股股票的美元数字。预计直接上市的交易价格大多高于参考价。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker will offer class A stock, eligible for one vote per share; class B stock, which entitles shareholders to 10 votes per share and can be converted to class A shares; and class C shares, which carry no voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker将提供A类股票，每股有资格投票；B类股票，赋予股东每股10票的投票权，可转换为A类股票；和C类股票，不具有投票权。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker will be an emerging growth company, which means it does not have to make the same disclosures required of bigger public companies. A business remains an emerging growth company until it reaches a number of milestones, including annual revenue of more than $1.07 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker将是一家新兴成长型公司，这意味着它不必像大型上市公司那样进行披露。一家企业在达到多个里程碑（包括年收入超过10.7亿美元）之前仍然是一家新兴成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p> Neil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa, ages 41 and 40 respectively, are co-founders, co-chairs and co-chief executives of the company.</p><p><blockquote>Neil Blumenthal和Dave Gilboa分别为41岁和40岁，是该公司的联合创始人、联合董事长和联合首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to Warby Parker, Blumenthal was a director at VisionSpring, a nonprofit that trains men and women in developing countries to sell affordable eyewear. Blumenthal is also a director at Allbirds, which filed to go public this week, at salad chain Sweetgreen and a number of nonprofit organizations including Warby Parker Impact Foundation and RxArt.</p><p><blockquote>在加入Warby Parker之前，Blumenthal是VisionSpring的董事，VisionSpring是一家非营利组织，旨在培训发展中国家的男性和女性销售负担得起的眼镜。布卢门撒尔还是本周申请上市的Allbirds、沙拉连锁店Sweetgreen以及包括Warby Parker Impact Foundation和RxArt在内的许多非营利组织的董事。</blockquote></p><p> Gilboa worked at consulting firm Bain &amp; Company and merchant bank Allen &amp; Co. prior to Warby Parker. He also serves on the board of the Warby Parker Impact Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>在加入Warby Parker之前，Gilboa曾在咨询公司Bain&amp;Company和商业银行Allen&amp;Co.工作。他也是沃比·帕克影响基金会的董事会成员。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunt and Jeffrey Raider, both age 40, are the other two co-founders of Warby Parker and both serve as directors. Also on the board is Ronald Williams, age 71, and former CEO of Aetna from 2006 to 2010.</p><p><blockquote>安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunt)和杰弗里·雷德(Jeffrey Raider)均为40岁，是Warby Parker的另外两位联合创始人，两人都担任董事。董事会成员还有71岁的罗纳德·威廉姆斯(Ronald Williams)，他曾于2006年至2010年担任Aetna前首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker was founded in 2010 and inspired by the founders' concerns that glasses were expensive and the process of buying them inconvenient.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker成立于2010年，其灵感来自创始人对眼镜价格昂贵且购买过程不方便的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> In its prospectus, Warby Parker says it is driven to do good and make customers happy. In addition to making glasses more affordable, Warby Parker has distributed more than 8 million pairs of glasses through the Buy a Pair, Give a Pair program. The company is also carbon neutral, which it has achieved through purchasing offsets.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker在招股说明书中表示，该公司致力于做好事并让客户满意。除了让眼镜更实惠之外，Warby Parker还通过“买一副，送一副”计划分发了超过800万副眼镜。该公司还实现了碳中和，这是通过购买补偿来实现的。</blockquote></p><p> \"[This motivation] pushes us to defy convention -- and, at times, to forego short-term profits -- but we believe delivering remarkable customer experiences and making a positive impact on all stakeholders will lead to continued long-term sustainable growth and profitability,\" says a letter from the co-CEOs included in the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“[这种动机]促使我们打破常规，有时甚至放弃短期利润，但我们相信，提供卓越的客户体验并对所有利益相关者产生积极影响将带来持续的长期可持续增长和盈利能力，”招股说明书中联合首席执行官的一封信中说道。</blockquote></p><p> A pair of Warby Parker spectacles starts at a price of $95 including prescription lenses, and can be purchased digitally, using a free home try-on system or virtual trial system, as well as at145 Warby Parker shops. The company keeps prices low by selling direct-to-consumer and bypassing middlemen.</p><p><blockquote>一副Warby Parker眼镜的起价为95美元，包括处方镜片，可以使用免费的家庭试戴系统或虚拟试戴系统以及145家Warby Parker商店进行数字购买。该公司通过直接向消费者销售并绕过中间商来保持低价。</blockquote></p><p> The company had a net loss of $55.9 million in 2020, after breakeven in 2019 and a loss of $22.9 million in 2018. It chalked up $393.7 million of revenue in 2020, up from $370.5 million in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2019年实现盈亏平衡，2018年亏损2290万美元，2020年净亏损5590万美元。2020年，该公司的收入为3.937亿美元，高于2019年的3.705亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some 95% of net revenue in 2020 came from the sale of glasses, 2% of revenue was generated by the sale of contact lenses, 1% by eye exams and 2% by eyewear accessories. The company is expecting to expand its customer base for eye exams.</p><p><blockquote>2020年约95%的净收入来自眼镜销售，2%的收入来自隐形眼镜销售，1%来自眼科检查，2%来自眼镜配件。该公司希望扩大眼科检查的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> For the six months ending June 30, 2021, net losses were $7.3 million and revenue totaled $270.5 million. The company has more than two million active customers and nearly 3,000 workers.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的六个月，净亏损为730万美元，收入总计2.705亿美元。该公司拥有超过200万活跃客户和近3000名员工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3510dd6c717e636f33784d4f89bd9ce3\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 76% of Americans were using some kind of vision correction in 2020, according to data provided by the prospectus. The number of Americans ages 65 and over will more than double over the next 40 years and at least 84% of people in this older age group wear corrective lenses. Increasing use of screens like mobile devices and computers has contributed to the need for vision correction. Glasses are replaced every two-to-two-and-a-half years.</p><p><blockquote>根据招股说明书提供的数据，2020年约有76%的美国人正在使用某种视力矫正。未来40年，65岁及以上的美国人数量将增加一倍以上，这个年龄组中至少有84%的人佩戴矫正镜片。移动设备和计算机等屏幕的使用增加了对视力矫正的需求。眼镜每两到两年半更换一次。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker says that between 2015 and 2019, it had a 50% sales retention rate within two years of the first purchase among customers it acquired. The retention rate was nearly 100% after four years during that same period.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker表示，2015年至2019年间，其获得的客户在首次购买后两年内的销售保留率为50%。在同一时期，四年后的保留率接近100%。</blockquote></p><p> The vision care industry is expected to grow at a 9.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2020 and 2025, according to Statista data provided in the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>根据招股说明书中提供的Statista数据，视力保健行业预计将在2020年至2025年间以9.2%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five other things to know about Warby Parker before it goes public:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Warby Parker上市前需要了解的其他五件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most decision-making power will be in the hands of Warby Parker's co-founders and co-CEOs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大部分决策权将掌握在Warby Parker的联合创始人和联合首席执行官手中</b></blockquote></p><p> The company's stock structure post-IPO will give the company's founders and top executives considerable control that could last until Oct. 1, 2031.</p><p><blockquote>该公司IPO后的股票结构将为公司创始人和高管提供相当大的控制权，这种控制权可能会持续到2031年10月1日。</blockquote></p><p> \"Because of the ten-to-one voting ratio between our class B and class A common stock, our co-founders and co-CEOs collectively could continue to control a significant percentage of the combined voting power of our common stock and therefore would be able to control all matters submitted to our stockholders for approval until the date of automatic conversion, when all shares outstanding of Class B common stock will convert automatically into shares of Class A common stock,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>“由于我们的B类普通股和A类普通股之间的投票权比例为十比一，我们的联合创始人和联合首席执行官可以继续控制我们普通股总投票权的很大一部分，因此将能够控制提交给股东批准的所有事项，直至自动转换之日，届时所有已发行的B类普通股将自动转换为A类普通股，”招股说明书称。</blockquote></p><p> That means other shareholders will have little say in the running of the company and will not influence such decisions as the election of directors, amendments of organizational documents, and any merger, consolidation, or sale of some or all of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着其他股东对公司的运营几乎没有发言权，也不会影响董事选举、组织文件修订以及任何合并、整合或出售部分或全部资产等决策。</blockquote></p><p> As a loss-making company, it will not pay a dividend for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家亏损公司，它在可预见的未来不会支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker does most things in-house -- and that could limit its ability to grow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker的大部分工作都是在内部完成的，这可能会限制其发展能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker says its business model, which has it do most things in-house, could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>沃比·帕克表示，其商业模式让大部分事情都在内部完成，这可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"[T]he vertically integrated nature of our business, where we design all of our own glasses in our New York headquarters, contract manufacture all of our glass frames, fulfill the glasses we sell at our own optical and fulfillment laboratories as well as at third-party contract laboratories, sell our products exclusively through our own retail stores, e-commerce site and mobile application, and service our products, exposes us to risk and disruption at many points that are critical to successfully operating our business, and may make it more difficult for us to scale our business,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们业务的垂直一体化性质，我们在纽约总部设计自己的所有眼镜，合同制造所有眼镜架，在我们自己的光学和履行实验室以及第三方履行销售的眼镜。第三方合同实验室，通过我们自己的零售店、电子商务网站和移动应用程序专门销售我们的产品，并为我们的产品提供服务，使我们在许多对成功运营业务至关重要的方面面临风险和中断，并可能使我们更难扩大业务规模，”招股说明书称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain troubles outside of those caused by COVID-19 could arise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可能会出现COVID-19引起的供应链问题之外的供应链问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Supply chain problems have plagued companies across the consumer space this year. But the company warns that its operations are vulnerable to other challenges as well.</p><p><blockquote>今年，供应链问题一直困扰着整个消费领域的公司。但该公司警告称，其运营也容易受到其他挑战的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker gets more than half of the cellulose acetate used in its frames from a single supplier. Other components are sourced from the U.S., China, Italy, Vietnam, and Japan. The company also uses third-party contractors on certain items, but doesn't have long-term contracts with these suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker镜架中使用的醋酸纤维素一半以上来自单一供应商。其他组件来自美国、中国、意大利、越南和日本。该公司还在某些项目上使用第三方承包商，但与这些供应商没有长期合同。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are therefore subject to the risk of shortages and long lead times in the supply of these components and the risk that our suppliers discontinue or modify components used in our products,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称：“因此，我们面临这些组件供应短缺和交付周期长的风险，以及供应商停止或修改我们产品中使用的组件的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We may in the future experience component shortages, and the predictability of the availability of these components may be limited, which may be heightened in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们未来可能会遇到组件短缺的情况，而且这些组件可用性的可预测性可能有限，鉴于持续的COVID-19大流行，这种情况可能会加剧。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker says customers are slow to adopt e-commerce for eyeglasses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker表示，客户采用眼镜电子商务的速度很慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker offers online shopping for eyeglasses, one of the most significant ways the company differentiates itself from a crowded competitive field. But the company says many customers are more comfortable shopping for eyeglasses in person.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker提供眼镜在线购物服务，这是该公司从拥挤的竞争领域中脱颖而出的最重要方式之一。但该公司表示，许多顾客更愿意亲自购买眼镜。</blockquote></p><p> \"Improving upon the consumer in-store experience through an online platform is difficult due to broad consumer demands on selection, quality, convenience, and affordability,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称：“由于消费者对选择、质量、便利性和可负担性的广泛需求，通过在线平台改善消费者的店内体验很困难。”</blockquote></p><p> When the company first started, less than 2.5% of glasses were purchased online. Even now, the company says it has \"historically generated a significant portion of our revenue from our retail stores, and our growth strategy will depend, in large part, on acquiring customers through the growth of our retail store base and expansion of our existing retail store operations.\"</p><p><blockquote>公司刚起步时，只有不到2.5%的眼镜是在网上购买的。即使是现在，该公司表示，“从历史上看，我们的收入很大一部分来自零售店，我们的增长战略将在很大程度上取决于通过零售店基础的增长和现有零售店的扩张来获取客户。商店运营。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker's business is actually seasonal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker的生意实际上是季节性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Customers eager to use health benefits before the end of a calendar year tend to boost demand in December.</p><p><blockquote>渴望在日历年结束前使用健康福利的客户往往会在12月份提振需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consistent with our policy to recognize revenue upon order delivery, any orders placed at the end of December are recognized as revenue upon delivery which may occur in the following year,\" Warby Parker said.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker表示：“根据我们在订单交付时确认收入的政策，12月底下的任何订单都会在下一年交付时确认为收入。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading<blockquote>眼镜制造商Warby Parker首日交易股价飙升34%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading<blockquote>眼镜制造商Warby Parker首日交易股价飙升34%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 01:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading.</p><p><blockquote>眼镜制造商Warby Parker首日交易股价飙升34%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f145f99950734ec9b0e3b675836a53fb\" tg-width=\"1836\" tg-height=\"901\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> NYSE assigns reference price of $40, trading&nbsp;to begin Wednesday</p><p><blockquote>纽交所指定参考价为40美元，周三开始交易</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5917e3b384716a3bbcfdd5860b35711f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warby Parker is focused on both business and giving back, the prospectus says.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>招股说明书称，Warby Parker专注于业务和回馈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRBY\">Warby Parker Inc.</a>, the company known for its affordable eyeglasses sold online, through its app and in stores, is begining trading Wednesday in a direct listing.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRBY\">沃比·帕克公司。</a>该公司以通过其应用程序和商店在线销售平价眼镜而闻名，将于周三开始直接上市交易。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the New York Stock Exchange assigned a $40 reference price to the New York City-based company's listing, which is expected to begin trading Wednesday under the ticker symbol \"WRBY\" . The company has about 111.5 million shares outstanding, giving it a valuation around $4.6 billion at that reference price.</p><p><blockquote>周二，纽约证券交易所为这家总部位于纽约市的公司的上市设定了40美元的参考价，预计将于周三开始交易，股票代码为“WRBY”。该公司拥有约1.115亿股已发行股票，按该参考价计算，其估值约为46亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Reference prices for direct listings are based on trading prices in private markets ahead of companies filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a public listing. Direct listings differ from IPOs because there is no capital raised, which is what places a dollar figure on shares in an IPO. Direct listings are largely expected to trade higher than the reference price.</p><p><blockquote>直接上市的参考价格基于公司向美国证券交易委员会提交公开上市申请之前私募市场的交易价格。直接上市不同于首次公开募股，因为没有筹集资金，这就是首次公开募股股票的美元数字。预计直接上市的交易价格大多高于参考价。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker will offer class A stock, eligible for one vote per share; class B stock, which entitles shareholders to 10 votes per share and can be converted to class A shares; and class C shares, which carry no voting rights.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker将提供A类股票，每股有资格投票；B类股票，赋予股东每股10票的投票权，可转换为A类股票；和C类股票，不具有投票权。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker will be an emerging growth company, which means it does not have to make the same disclosures required of bigger public companies. A business remains an emerging growth company until it reaches a number of milestones, including annual revenue of more than $1.07 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker将是一家新兴成长型公司，这意味着它不必像大型上市公司那样进行披露。一家企业在达到多个里程碑（包括年收入超过10.7亿美元）之前仍然是一家新兴成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p> Neil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa, ages 41 and 40 respectively, are co-founders, co-chairs and co-chief executives of the company.</p><p><blockquote>Neil Blumenthal和Dave Gilboa分别为41岁和40岁，是该公司的联合创始人、联合董事长和联合首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to Warby Parker, Blumenthal was a director at VisionSpring, a nonprofit that trains men and women in developing countries to sell affordable eyewear. Blumenthal is also a director at Allbirds, which filed to go public this week, at salad chain Sweetgreen and a number of nonprofit organizations including Warby Parker Impact Foundation and RxArt.</p><p><blockquote>在加入Warby Parker之前，Blumenthal是VisionSpring的董事，VisionSpring是一家非营利组织，旨在培训发展中国家的男性和女性销售负担得起的眼镜。布卢门撒尔还是本周申请上市的Allbirds、沙拉连锁店Sweetgreen以及包括Warby Parker Impact Foundation和RxArt在内的许多非营利组织的董事。</blockquote></p><p> Gilboa worked at consulting firm Bain &amp; Company and merchant bank Allen &amp; Co. prior to Warby Parker. He also serves on the board of the Warby Parker Impact Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>在加入Warby Parker之前，Gilboa曾在咨询公司Bain&amp;Company和商业银行Allen&amp;Co.工作。他也是沃比·帕克影响基金会的董事会成员。</blockquote></p><p> Andrew Hunt and Jeffrey Raider, both age 40, are the other two co-founders of Warby Parker and both serve as directors. Also on the board is Ronald Williams, age 71, and former CEO of Aetna from 2006 to 2010.</p><p><blockquote>安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunt)和杰弗里·雷德(Jeffrey Raider)均为40岁，是Warby Parker的另外两位联合创始人，两人都担任董事。董事会成员还有71岁的罗纳德·威廉姆斯(Ronald Williams)，他曾于2006年至2010年担任Aetna前首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker was founded in 2010 and inspired by the founders' concerns that glasses were expensive and the process of buying them inconvenient.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker成立于2010年，其灵感来自创始人对眼镜价格昂贵且购买过程不方便的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> In its prospectus, Warby Parker says it is driven to do good and make customers happy. In addition to making glasses more affordable, Warby Parker has distributed more than 8 million pairs of glasses through the Buy a Pair, Give a Pair program. The company is also carbon neutral, which it has achieved through purchasing offsets.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker在招股说明书中表示，该公司致力于做好事并让客户满意。除了让眼镜更实惠之外，Warby Parker还通过“买一副，送一副”计划分发了超过800万副眼镜。该公司还实现了碳中和，这是通过购买补偿来实现的。</blockquote></p><p> \"[This motivation] pushes us to defy convention -- and, at times, to forego short-term profits -- but we believe delivering remarkable customer experiences and making a positive impact on all stakeholders will lead to continued long-term sustainable growth and profitability,\" says a letter from the co-CEOs included in the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>“[这种动机]促使我们打破常规，有时甚至放弃短期利润，但我们相信，提供卓越的客户体验并对所有利益相关者产生积极影响将带来持续的长期可持续增长和盈利能力，”招股说明书中联合首席执行官的一封信中说道。</blockquote></p><p> A pair of Warby Parker spectacles starts at a price of $95 including prescription lenses, and can be purchased digitally, using a free home try-on system or virtual trial system, as well as at145 Warby Parker shops. The company keeps prices low by selling direct-to-consumer and bypassing middlemen.</p><p><blockquote>一副Warby Parker眼镜的起价为95美元，包括处方镜片，可以使用免费的家庭试戴系统或虚拟试戴系统以及145家Warby Parker商店进行数字购买。该公司通过直接向消费者销售并绕过中间商来保持低价。</blockquote></p><p> The company had a net loss of $55.9 million in 2020, after breakeven in 2019 and a loss of $22.9 million in 2018. It chalked up $393.7 million of revenue in 2020, up from $370.5 million in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在2019年实现盈亏平衡，2018年亏损2290万美元，2020年净亏损5590万美元。2020年，该公司的收入为3.937亿美元，高于2019年的3.705亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some 95% of net revenue in 2020 came from the sale of glasses, 2% of revenue was generated by the sale of contact lenses, 1% by eye exams and 2% by eyewear accessories. The company is expecting to expand its customer base for eye exams.</p><p><blockquote>2020年约95%的净收入来自眼镜销售，2%的收入来自隐形眼镜销售，1%来自眼科检查，2%来自眼镜配件。该公司希望扩大眼科检查的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> For the six months ending June 30, 2021, net losses were $7.3 million and revenue totaled $270.5 million. The company has more than two million active customers and nearly 3,000 workers.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的六个月，净亏损为730万美元，收入总计2.705亿美元。该公司拥有超过200万活跃客户和近3000名员工。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3510dd6c717e636f33784d4f89bd9ce3\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 76% of Americans were using some kind of vision correction in 2020, according to data provided by the prospectus. The number of Americans ages 65 and over will more than double over the next 40 years and at least 84% of people in this older age group wear corrective lenses. Increasing use of screens like mobile devices and computers has contributed to the need for vision correction. Glasses are replaced every two-to-two-and-a-half years.</p><p><blockquote>根据招股说明书提供的数据，2020年约有76%的美国人正在使用某种视力矫正。未来40年，65岁及以上的美国人数量将增加一倍以上，这个年龄组中至少有84%的人佩戴矫正镜片。移动设备和计算机等屏幕的使用增加了对视力矫正的需求。眼镜每两到两年半更换一次。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker says that between 2015 and 2019, it had a 50% sales retention rate within two years of the first purchase among customers it acquired. The retention rate was nearly 100% after four years during that same period.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker表示，2015年至2019年间，其获得的客户在首次购买后两年内的销售保留率为50%。在同一时期，四年后的保留率接近100%。</blockquote></p><p> The vision care industry is expected to grow at a 9.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2020 and 2025, according to Statista data provided in the prospectus.</p><p><blockquote>根据招股说明书中提供的Statista数据，视力保健行业预计将在2020年至2025年间以9.2%的复合年增长率(CAGR)增长。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five other things to know about Warby Parker before it goes public:</p><p><blockquote>以下是Warby Parker上市前需要了解的其他五件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most decision-making power will be in the hands of Warby Parker's co-founders and co-CEOs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大部分决策权将掌握在Warby Parker的联合创始人和联合首席执行官手中</b></blockquote></p><p> The company's stock structure post-IPO will give the company's founders and top executives considerable control that could last until Oct. 1, 2031.</p><p><blockquote>该公司IPO后的股票结构将为公司创始人和高管提供相当大的控制权，这种控制权可能会持续到2031年10月1日。</blockquote></p><p> \"Because of the ten-to-one voting ratio between our class B and class A common stock, our co-founders and co-CEOs collectively could continue to control a significant percentage of the combined voting power of our common stock and therefore would be able to control all matters submitted to our stockholders for approval until the date of automatic conversion, when all shares outstanding of Class B common stock will convert automatically into shares of Class A common stock,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>“由于我们的B类普通股和A类普通股之间的投票权比例为十比一，我们的联合创始人和联合首席执行官可以继续控制我们普通股总投票权的很大一部分，因此将能够控制提交给股东批准的所有事项，直至自动转换之日，届时所有已发行的B类普通股将自动转换为A类普通股，”招股说明书称。</blockquote></p><p> That means other shareholders will have little say in the running of the company and will not influence such decisions as the election of directors, amendments of organizational documents, and any merger, consolidation, or sale of some or all of its assets.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着其他股东对公司的运营几乎没有发言权，也不会影响董事选举、组织文件修订以及任何合并、整合或出售部分或全部资产等决策。</blockquote></p><p> As a loss-making company, it will not pay a dividend for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家亏损公司，它在可预见的未来不会支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker does most things in-house -- and that could limit its ability to grow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker的大部分工作都是在内部完成的，这可能会限制其发展能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker says its business model, which has it do most things in-house, could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>沃比·帕克表示，其商业模式让大部分事情都在内部完成，这可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> \"[T]he vertically integrated nature of our business, where we design all of our own glasses in our New York headquarters, contract manufacture all of our glass frames, fulfill the glasses we sell at our own optical and fulfillment laboratories as well as at third-party contract laboratories, sell our products exclusively through our own retail stores, e-commerce site and mobile application, and service our products, exposes us to risk and disruption at many points that are critical to successfully operating our business, and may make it more difficult for us to scale our business,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>“我们业务的垂直一体化性质，我们在纽约总部设计自己的所有眼镜，合同制造所有眼镜架，在我们自己的光学和履行实验室以及第三方履行销售的眼镜。第三方合同实验室，通过我们自己的零售店、电子商务网站和移动应用程序专门销售我们的产品，并为我们的产品提供服务，使我们在许多对成功运营业务至关重要的方面面临风险和中断，并可能使我们更难扩大业务规模，”招股说明书称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain troubles outside of those caused by COVID-19 could arise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可能会出现COVID-19引起的供应链问题之外的供应链问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Supply chain problems have plagued companies across the consumer space this year. But the company warns that its operations are vulnerable to other challenges as well.</p><p><blockquote>今年，供应链问题一直困扰着整个消费领域的公司。但该公司警告称，其运营也容易受到其他挑战的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker gets more than half of the cellulose acetate used in its frames from a single supplier. Other components are sourced from the U.S., China, Italy, Vietnam, and Japan. The company also uses third-party contractors on certain items, but doesn't have long-term contracts with these suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker镜架中使用的醋酸纤维素一半以上来自单一供应商。其他组件来自美国、中国、意大利、越南和日本。该公司还在某些项目上使用第三方承包商，但与这些供应商没有长期合同。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are therefore subject to the risk of shortages and long lead times in the supply of these components and the risk that our suppliers discontinue or modify components used in our products,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称：“因此，我们面临这些组件供应短缺和交付周期长的风险，以及供应商停止或修改我们产品中使用的组件的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> \"We may in the future experience component shortages, and the predictability of the availability of these components may be limited, which may be heightened in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们未来可能会遇到组件短缺的情况，而且这些组件可用性的可预测性可能有限，鉴于持续的COVID-19大流行，这种情况可能会加剧。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker says customers are slow to adopt e-commerce for eyeglasses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker表示，客户采用眼镜电子商务的速度很慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Warby Parker offers online shopping for eyeglasses, one of the most significant ways the company differentiates itself from a crowded competitive field. But the company says many customers are more comfortable shopping for eyeglasses in person.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker提供眼镜在线购物服务，这是该公司从拥挤的竞争领域中脱颖而出的最重要方式之一。但该公司表示，许多顾客更愿意亲自购买眼镜。</blockquote></p><p> \"Improving upon the consumer in-store experience through an online platform is difficult due to broad consumer demands on selection, quality, convenience, and affordability,\" the prospectus says.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称：“由于消费者对选择、质量、便利性和可负担性的广泛需求，通过在线平台改善消费者的店内体验很困难。”</blockquote></p><p> When the company first started, less than 2.5% of glasses were purchased online. Even now, the company says it has \"historically generated a significant portion of our revenue from our retail stores, and our growth strategy will depend, in large part, on acquiring customers through the growth of our retail store base and expansion of our existing retail store operations.\"</p><p><blockquote>公司刚起步时，只有不到2.5%的眼镜是在网上购买的。即使是现在，该公司表示，“从历史上看，我们的收入很大一部分来自零售店，我们的增长战略将在很大程度上取决于通过零售店基础的增长和现有零售店的扩张来获取客户。商店运营。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Warby Parker's business is actually seasonal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Warby Parker的生意实际上是季节性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Customers eager to use health benefits before the end of a calendar year tend to boost demand in December.</p><p><blockquote>渴望在日历年结束前使用健康福利的客户往往会在12月份提振需求。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consistent with our policy to recognize revenue upon order delivery, any orders placed at the end of December are recognized as revenue upon delivery which may occur in the following year,\" Warby Parker said.</p><p><blockquote>Warby Parker表示：“根据我们在订单交付时确认收入的政策，12月底下的任何订单都会在下一年交付时确认为收入。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warby-parker-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-affordable-eyeglass-maker-before-its-direct-listing-11630520146?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warby-parker-ipo-5-things-to-know-about-the-affordable-eyeglass-maker-before-its-direct-listing-11630520146?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2171115602","content_text":"Eyewear maker Warby Parker spikes 34% on its first day of trading.\n\nNYSE assigns reference price of $40, trading to begin Wednesday\nWarby Parker is focused on both business and giving back, the prospectus says.\nWarby Parker Inc., the company known for its affordable eyeglasses sold online, through its app and in stores, is begining trading Wednesday in a direct listing.\nOn Tuesday, the New York Stock Exchange assigned a $40 reference price to the New York City-based company's listing, which is expected to begin trading Wednesday under the ticker symbol \"WRBY\" . The company has about 111.5 million shares outstanding, giving it a valuation around $4.6 billion at that reference price.\nReference prices for direct listings are based on trading prices in private markets ahead of companies filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a public listing. Direct listings differ from IPOs because there is no capital raised, which is what places a dollar figure on shares in an IPO. Direct listings are largely expected to trade higher than the reference price.\nWarby Parker will offer class A stock, eligible for one vote per share; class B stock, which entitles shareholders to 10 votes per share and can be converted to class A shares; and class C shares, which carry no voting rights.\nWarby Parker will be an emerging growth company, which means it does not have to make the same disclosures required of bigger public companies. A business remains an emerging growth company until it reaches a number of milestones, including annual revenue of more than $1.07 billion.\nNeil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa, ages 41 and 40 respectively, are co-founders, co-chairs and co-chief executives of the company.\nPrior to Warby Parker, Blumenthal was a director at VisionSpring, a nonprofit that trains men and women in developing countries to sell affordable eyewear. Blumenthal is also a director at Allbirds, which filed to go public this week, at salad chain Sweetgreen and a number of nonprofit organizations including Warby Parker Impact Foundation and RxArt.\nGilboa worked at consulting firm Bain & Company and merchant bank Allen & Co. prior to Warby Parker. He also serves on the board of the Warby Parker Impact Foundation.\nAndrew Hunt and Jeffrey Raider, both age 40, are the other two co-founders of Warby Parker and both serve as directors. Also on the board is Ronald Williams, age 71, and former CEO of Aetna from 2006 to 2010.\nWarby Parker was founded in 2010 and inspired by the founders' concerns that glasses were expensive and the process of buying them inconvenient.\nIn its prospectus, Warby Parker says it is driven to do good and make customers happy. In addition to making glasses more affordable, Warby Parker has distributed more than 8 million pairs of glasses through the Buy a Pair, Give a Pair program. The company is also carbon neutral, which it has achieved through purchasing offsets.\n\"[This motivation] pushes us to defy convention -- and, at times, to forego short-term profits -- but we believe delivering remarkable customer experiences and making a positive impact on all stakeholders will lead to continued long-term sustainable growth and profitability,\" says a letter from the co-CEOs included in the prospectus.\nA pair of Warby Parker spectacles starts at a price of $95 including prescription lenses, and can be purchased digitally, using a free home try-on system or virtual trial system, as well as at145 Warby Parker shops. The company keeps prices low by selling direct-to-consumer and bypassing middlemen.\nThe company had a net loss of $55.9 million in 2020, after breakeven in 2019 and a loss of $22.9 million in 2018. It chalked up $393.7 million of revenue in 2020, up from $370.5 million in 2019.\nSome 95% of net revenue in 2020 came from the sale of glasses, 2% of revenue was generated by the sale of contact lenses, 1% by eye exams and 2% by eyewear accessories. The company is expecting to expand its customer base for eye exams.\nFor the six months ending June 30, 2021, net losses were $7.3 million and revenue totaled $270.5 million. The company has more than two million active customers and nearly 3,000 workers.\n\nAbout 76% of Americans were using some kind of vision correction in 2020, according to data provided by the prospectus. The number of Americans ages 65 and over will more than double over the next 40 years and at least 84% of people in this older age group wear corrective lenses. Increasing use of screens like mobile devices and computers has contributed to the need for vision correction. Glasses are replaced every two-to-two-and-a-half years.\nWarby Parker says that between 2015 and 2019, it had a 50% sales retention rate within two years of the first purchase among customers it acquired. The retention rate was nearly 100% after four years during that same period.\nThe vision care industry is expected to grow at a 9.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2020 and 2025, according to Statista data provided in the prospectus.\nHere are five other things to know about Warby Parker before it goes public:\nMost decision-making power will be in the hands of Warby Parker's co-founders and co-CEOs\nThe company's stock structure post-IPO will give the company's founders and top executives considerable control that could last until Oct. 1, 2031.\n\"Because of the ten-to-one voting ratio between our class B and class A common stock, our co-founders and co-CEOs collectively could continue to control a significant percentage of the combined voting power of our common stock and therefore would be able to control all matters submitted to our stockholders for approval until the date of automatic conversion, when all shares outstanding of Class B common stock will convert automatically into shares of Class A common stock,\" the prospectus says.\nThat means other shareholders will have little say in the running of the company and will not influence such decisions as the election of directors, amendments of organizational documents, and any merger, consolidation, or sale of some or all of its assets.\nAs a loss-making company, it will not pay a dividend for the foreseeable future.\nWarby Parker does most things in-house -- and that could limit its ability to grow\nWarby Parker says its business model, which has it do most things in-house, could cause problems.\n\"[T]he vertically integrated nature of our business, where we design all of our own glasses in our New York headquarters, contract manufacture all of our glass frames, fulfill the glasses we sell at our own optical and fulfillment laboratories as well as at third-party contract laboratories, sell our products exclusively through our own retail stores, e-commerce site and mobile application, and service our products, exposes us to risk and disruption at many points that are critical to successfully operating our business, and may make it more difficult for us to scale our business,\" the prospectus says.\nSupply chain troubles outside of those caused by COVID-19 could arise\nSupply chain problems have plagued companies across the consumer space this year. But the company warns that its operations are vulnerable to other challenges as well.\nWarby Parker gets more than half of the cellulose acetate used in its frames from a single supplier. Other components are sourced from the U.S., China, Italy, Vietnam, and Japan. The company also uses third-party contractors on certain items, but doesn't have long-term contracts with these suppliers.\n\"We are therefore subject to the risk of shortages and long lead times in the supply of these components and the risk that our suppliers discontinue or modify components used in our products,\" the prospectus says.\n\"We may in the future experience component shortages, and the predictability of the availability of these components may be limited, which may be heightened in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.\"\nWarby Parker says customers are slow to adopt e-commerce for eyeglasses\nWarby Parker offers online shopping for eyeglasses, one of the most significant ways the company differentiates itself from a crowded competitive field. But the company says many customers are more comfortable shopping for eyeglasses in person.\n\"Improving upon the consumer in-store experience through an online platform is difficult due to broad consumer demands on selection, quality, convenience, and affordability,\" the prospectus says.\nWhen the company first started, less than 2.5% of glasses were purchased online. Even now, the company says it has \"historically generated a significant portion of our revenue from our retail stores, and our growth strategy will depend, in large part, on acquiring customers through the growth of our retail store base and expansion of our existing retail store operations.\"\nWarby Parker's business is actually seasonal\nCustomers eager to use health benefits before the end of a calendar year tend to boost demand in December.\n\"Consistent with our policy to recognize revenue upon order delivery, any orders placed at the end of December are recognized as revenue upon delivery which may occur in the following year,\" Warby Parker said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865096452,"gmtCreate":1632922485825,"gmtModify":1632922507602,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865096452","repostId":"1136349988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862328722,"gmtCreate":1632838744829,"gmtModify":1632838783100,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why?","listText":"Why?","text":"Why?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862328722","repostId":"1193693996","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193693996","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632836938,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193693996?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193693996","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading.Pfizer,BioNTech SE,Eli Lilly,Moderna and AstraZeneca f","content":"<p>Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading.Pfizer,BioNTech SE,Eli Lilly,Moderna&nbsp;and&nbsp;AstraZeneca&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>医药股早盘下跌。辉瑞、BioNTech SE、礼来公司、Moderna和阿斯利康跌幅在1%至7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8af8822165a8a89dc1b54a9195f782\" tg-width=\"398\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-28 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading.Pfizer,BioNTech SE,Eli Lilly,Moderna&nbsp;and&nbsp;AstraZeneca&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>医药股早盘下跌。辉瑞、BioNTech SE、礼来公司、Moderna和阿斯利康跌幅在1%至7%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc8af8822165a8a89dc1b54a9195f782\" tg-width=\"398\" tg-height=\"729\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","REGN":"再生元制药公司","LLY":"礼来","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","AZN":"阿斯利康","GILD":"吉利德科学","PFE":"辉瑞"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193693996","content_text":"Pharmaceutical stocks slid in morning trading.Pfizer,BioNTech SE,Eli Lilly,Moderna and AstraZeneca fell between 1% and 7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"REGN":0.9,"AZN":0.9,"NVAX":0.9,"GILD":0.9,"LLY":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"BNTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868560763,"gmtCreate":1632672667552,"gmtModify":1632798652732,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls!&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls!&nbsp;","text":"Like pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868560763","repostId":"1175726457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会击败市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会击败市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Market Watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861215210,"gmtCreate":1632497498530,"gmtModify":1632715722942,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls!!","listText":"Like pls!!","text":"Like pls!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861215210","repostId":"1142559059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142559059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632484839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142559059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142559059","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.\nAt 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e","content":"<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）在股市创下7月以来最好的一天后，股指期货回吐涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis sank 106.5&nbsp;points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:01，道指e-minis下跌149点，跌幅0.43%，标普500 e-minis下跌22.75点，跌幅0.51%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌106.5点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a653559f88adfa0843eba93e9dc775\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S.&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在美国盘前交易中暴跌。Marathon Digital(MARA)下跌6.5%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌4.7%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)-5.9%，Coinbase-2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、花旗集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行等大银行在盘前交易中下跌约0.5%，而石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙公司分别下跌0.4%和0.3%。大型FAAMG科技巨头跌幅在0.5%和0.6%之间。运动服装制造商耐克下调了2022财年销售预期，并警告假日购物季将出现延误，股价下跌4.6%。在这家运动服装和运动鞋制造商将财年收入增长指引下调至中个位数后，几位分析师下调了对该公司的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood(HOOD)、Coinbase(COIN)——在中国表示正在加强加密货币打压后，零售交易应用程序和加密货币交易所的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该国央行周五表示，所有与加密货币相关的活动都是非法的。Coinbase股价下跌超过3.6%，Robinhood股价下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Roku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）——富国银行将Roku评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重后，该流媒体视频平台的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该投资公司在一份报告中表示，随着竞争加剧，华尔街对Roku营收增长的预期可能过高。Roku股价下跌2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>耐克（NKE）——由于供应链问题，耐克下调了收入预期，这家服装巨头的股价周五承压。该公司表示，预计2022财年全年销售额将实现中个位数增长，低于此前预测的低两位数增长。耐克股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> Under Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Under Armour(UAA)——在竞争对手耐克下调指引后，这家运动服装零售商的股价在盘前交易中下跌。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> Costco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Costco(COST)——该零售商周四下午发布的第四财季报告的营收和利润超出了预期。该公司公布的调整后每股收益为3.90美元，轻松超过预期的3.57美元，该季度净销售额同比增长超过17%。该股在盘前交易中小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> Merck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>默克（MRK）——制药巨头和阿斯利康周五上午宣布，在三期试验中，使用药物Lynparza的治疗减缓了前列腺癌的进展。默克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Cheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave &amp; Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>Cheesecake Factory(CAKE)、Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)——杰富瑞(Jefferies)将股票评级从持有上调至买入后，这些餐厅股票在盘前交易中小幅上涨。该公司表示，尽管德尔塔变异毒株蔓延，但提供全方位服务的餐厅的客流量仍保持良好。</blockquote></p><p> Helbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz&nbsp;falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.</p><p><blockquote>Helbiz(HLBZ)–Helbiz股价下跌10%，此前这家微型移动公司向SEC提交了股东出售多达1100万股股票的申请。</blockquote></p><p> Focus Universal (FCUV), —&nbsp;Focus Universal&nbsp;an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.</p><p><blockquote>Focus Universal(FCUV),-Focus Universal是一家深受散户交易者喜爱的在线营销公司，最近几天该股在Stocktwits上被引用后，在盘前交易中飙升26%。</blockquote></p><p> Vail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts&nbsp;falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Vail Resorts(MTN)-Vail Resorts在盘后交易中下跌2.7%，此前其全年Ebitda和净利润预测未达到中点。</blockquote></p><p> GlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics&nbsp;jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.</p><p><blockquote>GlycoMimetics(GLYC)-GlycoMimetics在宣布uproleselan在急性髓系白血病患者中的1/2期研究的疗效和安全性数据于9月16日发表在《血液》杂志上后，上市后股价上涨15%。</blockquote></p><p> VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) —&nbsp;VTV Therapeutics&nbsp;surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. </p><p><blockquote>VTV Therapeutics(VTVT)-VTV Therapeutics表示其HPP737银屑病治疗在一项多次递增剂量研究中显示出良好的安全性和耐受性，股价飙升30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as&nbsp; businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数从一周低点回升，因对恒大可能蔓延的担忧加剧了基于美联储周三暗示的缩减时间表的美元买盘。新西兰元、澳元和加元在G-10记分牌上垫底。ZAR和TRY是新兴市场外汇中最弱的。由于投资者期待英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利下周就可能加息发表的讲话，英镑在周四上涨后下跌。交易员押注，在首先提高借贷成本的竞赛中，英国央行将成为压倒美联储的赢家。新西兰元和澳元在10国集团同行中领跌。ING分析师Francesco Pesole和Chris Turner表示，欧元交易持平，一周的事件未能“产生任何明确的方向性走势”。德国IFO情绪指数将“提供有关该地区情绪的额外指标，因为企业面临德尔塔变异毒株担忧和挥之不去的供应中断的综合因素”。挪威克朗是本周G10货币中表现最好的货币，挪威央行周四宣布提供支持</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>原油期货在本周最佳水平附近窄幅上涨。WTI徘徊在73.40美元附近，布伦特原油徘徊在77.50美元附近。现货黄金延续亚洲涨幅，盘中上涨12美元，交易价格接近1755美元/盎司。基本金属涨跌互现，LME镍和铝下跌约1%，LME锡上涨2.8%。在中国人民银行表示所有与加密货币相关的交易都是非法的后，比特币下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们将听取美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达和美联储的梅斯特、鲍曼、乔治和博斯蒂克，以及欧洲央行的莱恩和埃尔德森以及英国央行的坦雷罗的发言。最后，包括拜登总统以及澳大利亚、印度和日本总理在内的四方领导人峰会将在白宫举行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 20:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）在股市创下7月以来最好的一天后，股指期货回吐涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis sank 106.5&nbsp;points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:01，道指e-minis下跌149点，跌幅0.43%，标普500 e-minis下跌22.75点，跌幅0.51%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌106.5点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a653559f88adfa0843eba93e9dc775\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S.&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在美国盘前交易中暴跌。Marathon Digital(MARA)下跌6.5%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌4.7%，Riot Blockchain(RIOT)-5.9%，Coinbase-2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、花旗集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行等大银行在盘前交易中下跌约0.5%，而石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙公司分别下跌0.4%和0.3%。大型FAAMG科技巨头跌幅在0.5%和0.6%之间。运动服装制造商耐克下调了2022财年销售预期，并警告假日购物季将出现延误，股价下跌4.6%。在这家运动服装和运动鞋制造商将财年收入增长指引下调至中个位数后，几位分析师下调了对该公司的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood(HOOD)、Coinbase(COIN)——在中国表示正在加强加密货币打压后，零售交易应用程序和加密货币交易所的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该国央行周五表示，所有与加密货币相关的活动都是非法的。Coinbase股价下跌超过3.6%，Robinhood股价下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Roku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）——富国银行将Roku评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重后，该流媒体视频平台的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该投资公司在一份报告中表示，随着竞争加剧，华尔街对Roku营收增长的预期可能过高。Roku股价下跌2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>耐克（NKE）——由于供应链问题，耐克下调了收入预期，这家服装巨头的股价周五承压。该公司表示，预计2022财年全年销售额将实现中个位数增长，低于此前预测的低两位数增长。耐克股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> Under Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Under Armour(UAA)——在竞争对手耐克下调指引后，这家运动服装零售商的股价在盘前交易中下跌。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> Costco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Costco(COST)——该零售商周四下午发布的第四财季报告的营收和利润超出了预期。该公司公布的调整后每股收益为3.90美元，轻松超过预期的3.57美元，该季度净销售额同比增长超过17%。该股在盘前交易中小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> Merck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>默克（MRK）——制药巨头和阿斯利康周五上午宣布，在三期试验中，使用药物Lynparza的治疗减缓了前列腺癌的进展。默克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Cheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave &amp; Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>Cheesecake Factory(CAKE)、Dave&amp;Buster's(PLAY)——杰富瑞(Jefferies)将股票评级从持有上调至买入后，这些餐厅股票在盘前交易中小幅上涨。该公司表示，尽管德尔塔变异毒株蔓延，但提供全方位服务的餐厅的客流量仍保持良好。</blockquote></p><p> Helbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz&nbsp;falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.</p><p><blockquote>Helbiz(HLBZ)–Helbiz股价下跌10%，此前这家微型移动公司向SEC提交了股东出售多达1100万股股票的申请。</blockquote></p><p> Focus Universal (FCUV), —&nbsp;Focus Universal&nbsp;an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.</p><p><blockquote>Focus Universal(FCUV),-Focus Universal是一家深受散户交易者喜爱的在线营销公司，最近几天该股在Stocktwits上被引用后，在盘前交易中飙升26%。</blockquote></p><p> Vail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts&nbsp;falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Vail Resorts(MTN)-Vail Resorts在盘后交易中下跌2.7%，此前其全年Ebitda和净利润预测未达到中点。</blockquote></p><p> GlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics&nbsp;jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.</p><p><blockquote>GlycoMimetics(GLYC)-GlycoMimetics在宣布uproleselan在急性髓系白血病患者中的1/2期研究的疗效和安全性数据于9月16日发表在《血液》杂志上后，上市后股价上涨15%。</blockquote></p><p> VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) —&nbsp;VTV Therapeutics&nbsp;surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. </p><p><blockquote>VTV Therapeutics(VTVT)-VTV Therapeutics表示其HPP737银屑病治疗在一项多次递增剂量研究中显示出良好的安全性和耐受性，股价飙升30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as&nbsp; businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数从一周低点回升，因对恒大可能蔓延的担忧加剧了基于美联储周三暗示的缩减时间表的美元买盘。新西兰元、澳元和加元在G-10记分牌上垫底。ZAR和TRY是新兴市场外汇中最弱的。由于投资者期待英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利下周就可能加息发表的讲话，英镑在周四上涨后下跌。交易员押注，在首先提高借贷成本的竞赛中，英国央行将成为压倒美联储的赢家。新西兰元和澳元在10国集团同行中领跌。ING分析师Francesco Pesole和Chris Turner表示，欧元交易持平，一周的事件未能“产生任何明确的方向性走势”。德国IFO情绪指数将“提供有关该地区情绪的额外指标，因为企业面临德尔塔变异毒株担忧和挥之不去的供应中断的综合因素”。挪威克朗是本周G10货币中表现最好的货币，挪威央行周四宣布提供支持</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>原油期货在本周最佳水平附近窄幅上涨。WTI徘徊在73.40美元附近，布伦特原油徘徊在77.50美元附近。现货黄金延续亚洲涨幅，盘中上涨12美元，交易价格接近1755美元/盎司。基本金属涨跌互现，LME镍和铝下跌约1%，LME锡上涨2.8%。在中国人民银行表示所有与加密货币相关的交易都是非法的后，比特币下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们将听取美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达和美联储的梅斯特、鲍曼、乔治和博斯蒂克，以及欧洲央行的莱恩和埃尔德森以及英国央行的坦雷罗的发言。最后，包括拜登总统以及澳大利亚、印度和日本总理在内的四方领导人峰会将在白宫举行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142559059","content_text":"(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.\nAt 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis sank 106.5 points, or 0.70%.\n\nCryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.\nBig banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nRobinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.\nRoku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.\nNike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.\nUnder Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.\nCostco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.\nMerck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.\nCheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave & Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.\nHelbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.\nFocus Universal (FCUV), — Focus Universal an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.\nVail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.\nGlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.\nVTV Therapeutics (VTVT) — VTV Therapeutics surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. \nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as  businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support\nIn commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.\nLooking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884854035,"gmtCreate":1631882374127,"gmtModify":1632805614755,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like!!!","listText":"Like!!!","text":"Like!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884854035","repostId":"1151546238","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151546238","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631880659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151546238?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on  Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151546238","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as steady Treasury yields after strong economic data this w","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as steady Treasury yields after strong economic data this week pointed toward more movement out of heavyweight technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因本周强劲的经济数据表明重量级科技股将出现更多走势后，美国国债收益率稳定。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 10.5 points, or 0.24%, at 08:00 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 65 points, or 0.19%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 34.5 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，美国标普500 e-mini下跌10.5点，即0.24%。道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌65点，跌幅0.19%，纳斯达克100电子迷你指数下跌34.5点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422068c56661ddc3e6e1ffc31f3bd4ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> FAANG stocks, including Apple Inc&nbsp;and Alphabet Inc, some of the largest tech names on Wall Street, fell slightly in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>包括华尔街一些最大的科技公司苹果公司和Alphabet公司在内的FAANG股票在盘前交易中小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Focus now turns to a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week, with investors debating if a swathe of strong economic data this week could spur the bank into shortening its timeline for reducing monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>现在焦点转向下周的美联储会议，投资者正在争论本周一系列强劲的经济数据是否会刺激美联储缩短减少货币刺激的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Coupang(CPNG)</b> – Softbank’s Vision Fund sold 57 million shares of the South Korean online retailer for about $1.69 billion, according to an SEC filing.Coupang shares fell 0.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Coupang(CPNG)</b>-根据SEC提交的文件，软银的愿景基金以约16.9亿美元的价格出售了这家韩国在线零售商的5700万股股票。Coupang股价盘前下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid(LCID)</b>&nbsp; –&nbsp;EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4.7% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid(LCID)</b>–电动汽车制造商Lucid股价在早盘交易中上涨4.7%，其豪华轿车获得了520英里的行驶里程评级。此外，美银预计Lucid将上涨50%，并将电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和Ferrari进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) </b>– The video game maker’s stocks fell 1.5% in premarket action after BMO Capital downgraded the stock to “market perform” from “outperform.” BMO’s earnings estimates for Take-Two had been on the high end of Street forecasts, but it said it is now less confident following a series of video game release delays.</p><p><blockquote><b>Take-Two互动(TTWO)</b>–BMO Capital将该股评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“与大盘持平”后，该视频游戏制造商的股价在盘前下跌1.5%。BMO对Take-Two的盈利预期一直处于华尔街预测的高端，但该公司表示，在一系列视频游戏发布延迟后，该公司现在信心不足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU)</b> – The soccer team operator reported a quarterly loss that was 5.9% narower than what it lost a year ago amid a 15.9% increase in revenue. Manchester United is not providing full-year revenue or earnings guidance for fiscal 2022 due to uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>–该足球队运营商报告季度亏损比去年同期减少5.9%，而收入却增长了15.9%。由于围绕Covid-19大流行的不确定性，曼联没有提供2022财年的全年收入或盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Invesco(IVZ)</b> – The investment management firm is in talks to merge with&nbsp;State Street’s (STT) asset management unit, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Those sources said a deal is not imminent and might not happen at all. Invesco shares surged 4.6% in the premarket, while State Street edged up 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote><b>景顺(IVZ)</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，该投资管理公司正在就与道富银行(STT)资产管理部门合并进行谈判。这些消息人士称，交易不会迫在眉睫，也可能根本不会发生。景顺股价盘前飙升4.6%，道富银行小幅上涨0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Accolade(ACCD)</b> – The provider of workplace benefits management solutions rose 2% in the premarket after Baird upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “neutral.” Baird cited a track record of strong execution and its increasing confidence following recent conversations with management.</p><p><blockquote><b>Accolade(ACCD)</b>-贝尔德将该股评级从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，这家工作场所福利管理解决方案提供商盘前上涨2%。贝尔德列举了其强劲执行力的记录以及最近与管理层对话后不断增强的信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unum(UNM)</b> – Unum is launching a new digital verification tool designed to help companies manage vaccine mandates. The insurer’s product allows workers to report vaccination status and upload documentation as well as helping companies manage exemptions.</p><p><blockquote><b>Unum(UNM)</b>-Unum正在推出一种新的数字验证工具，旨在帮助公司管理疫苗授权。该保险公司的产品允许员工报告疫苗接种状态和上传文件，并帮助公司管理豁免。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Eli Lilly(LLY)</b> – The drugmaker won FDA approval for expansion of the emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 treatment. The treatment can now be used in patients who could have a high risk of infection after being exposed to someone with Covid.</p><p><blockquote><b>礼来公司(LLY)</b>-该制药商获得FDA批准扩大其Covid-19治疗的紧急使用授权。这种治疗现在可以用于那些在接触Covid患者后可能有高风险感染的患者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Motors(GM)</b> – GM plans to extend downtime at seven North American factories as the worldwide semiconductor shortage continues to crimp production.The&nbsp;shares fell 0.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>通用汽车(GM)</b>-全球半导体短缺继续抑制产量，通用汽车计划延长北美七家工厂的停工时间，盘前股价跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. Steel(X)</b> – U.S. Steel is planning to build a new U.S. steel mill, with construction beginning next year and production planned to kick off in 2024. The move comes amid booming demand for steel as well as prices that have roughly quadrupled since the summer of 2020. Shares fell 2.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国钢铁公司(X)</b>-美国。Steel正计划在美国建造一座新钢厂，明年开始建设，计划于2024年投产。此举出台之际，钢铁需求蓬勃发展，价格自2020年夏季以来已上涨约四倍。盘前股价下跌2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Zumiez(ZUMZ)</b> – Zumiez shares rose 1% in premarket trading after the streetwear and sports apparel company announced a $150 million stock buyback program.</p><p><blockquote><b>祖米兹（ZUMZ）</b>–街头服饰和运动服装公司Zumiez宣布1.5亿美元的股票回购计划后，该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Diamondback Energy(FANG)</b> – The energy producer announced an accelerated capital return plan and approved a $2 billion stock buyback. Diamondback’s stock rallied 3.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>响尾蛇能源（FANG）</b>-这家能源生产商宣布了一项加速资本回报计划，并批准了20亿美元的股票回购。Diamondback股价在盘前交易中上涨3.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on  Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on  Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-17 20:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as steady Treasury yields after strong economic data this week pointed toward more movement out of heavyweight technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五下跌，因本周强劲的经济数据表明重量级科技股将出现更多走势后，美国国债收益率稳定。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 10.5 points, or 0.24%, at 08:00 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 65 points, or 0.19%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 34.5 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，美国标普500 e-mini下跌10.5点，即0.24%。道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌65点，跌幅0.19%，纳斯达克100电子迷你指数下跌34.5点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422068c56661ddc3e6e1ffc31f3bd4ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> FAANG stocks, including Apple Inc&nbsp;and Alphabet Inc, some of the largest tech names on Wall Street, fell slightly in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>包括华尔街一些最大的科技公司苹果公司和Alphabet公司在内的FAANG股票在盘前交易中小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Focus now turns to a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week, with investors debating if a swathe of strong economic data this week could spur the bank into shortening its timeline for reducing monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>现在焦点转向下周的美联储会议，投资者正在争论本周一系列强劲的经济数据是否会刺激美联储缩短减少货币刺激的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Coupang(CPNG)</b> – Softbank’s Vision Fund sold 57 million shares of the South Korean online retailer for about $1.69 billion, according to an SEC filing.Coupang shares fell 0.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Coupang(CPNG)</b>-根据SEC提交的文件，软银的愿景基金以约16.9亿美元的价格出售了这家韩国在线零售商的5700万股股票。Coupang股价盘前下跌0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid(LCID)</b>&nbsp; –&nbsp;EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4.7% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid(LCID)</b>–电动汽车制造商Lucid股价在早盘交易中上涨4.7%，其豪华轿车获得了520英里的行驶里程评级。此外，美银预计Lucid将上涨50%，并将电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和Ferrari进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Take-Two Interactive(TTWO) </b>– The video game maker’s stocks fell 1.5% in premarket action after BMO Capital downgraded the stock to “market perform” from “outperform.” BMO’s earnings estimates for Take-Two had been on the high end of Street forecasts, but it said it is now less confident following a series of video game release delays.</p><p><blockquote><b>Take-Two互动(TTWO)</b>–BMO Capital将该股评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“与大盘持平”后，该视频游戏制造商的股价在盘前下跌1.5%。BMO对Take-Two的盈利预期一直处于华尔街预测的高端，但该公司表示，在一系列视频游戏发布延迟后，该公司现在信心不足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manchester United(MANU)</b> – The soccer team operator reported a quarterly loss that was 5.9% narower than what it lost a year ago amid a 15.9% increase in revenue. Manchester United is not providing full-year revenue or earnings guidance for fiscal 2022 due to uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>曼联(MANU)</b>–该足球队运营商报告季度亏损比去年同期减少5.9%，而收入却增长了15.9%。由于围绕Covid-19大流行的不确定性，曼联没有提供2022财年的全年收入或盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Invesco(IVZ)</b> – The investment management firm is in talks to merge with&nbsp;State Street’s (STT) asset management unit, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Those sources said a deal is not imminent and might not happen at all. Invesco shares surged 4.6% in the premarket, while State Street edged up 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote><b>景顺(IVZ)</b>-据接受《华尔街日报》采访的知情人士透露，该投资管理公司正在就与道富银行(STT)资产管理部门合并进行谈判。这些消息人士称，交易不会迫在眉睫，也可能根本不会发生。景顺股价盘前飙升4.6%，道富银行小幅上涨0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Accolade(ACCD)</b> – The provider of workplace benefits management solutions rose 2% in the premarket after Baird upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “neutral.” Baird cited a track record of strong execution and its increasing confidence following recent conversations with management.</p><p><blockquote><b>Accolade(ACCD)</b>-贝尔德将该股评级从“中性”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，这家工作场所福利管理解决方案提供商盘前上涨2%。贝尔德列举了其强劲执行力的记录以及最近与管理层对话后不断增强的信心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unum(UNM)</b> – Unum is launching a new digital verification tool designed to help companies manage vaccine mandates. The insurer’s product allows workers to report vaccination status and upload documentation as well as helping companies manage exemptions.</p><p><blockquote><b>Unum(UNM)</b>-Unum正在推出一种新的数字验证工具，旨在帮助公司管理疫苗授权。该保险公司的产品允许员工报告疫苗接种状态和上传文件，并帮助公司管理豁免。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Eli Lilly(LLY)</b> – The drugmaker won FDA approval for expansion of the emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 treatment. The treatment can now be used in patients who could have a high risk of infection after being exposed to someone with Covid.</p><p><blockquote><b>礼来公司(LLY)</b>-该制药商获得FDA批准扩大其Covid-19治疗的紧急使用授权。这种治疗现在可以用于那些在接触Covid患者后可能有高风险感染的患者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Motors(GM)</b> – GM plans to extend downtime at seven North American factories as the worldwide semiconductor shortage continues to crimp production.The&nbsp;shares fell 0.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>通用汽车(GM)</b>-全球半导体短缺继续抑制产量，通用汽车计划延长北美七家工厂的停工时间，盘前股价跌0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. Steel(X)</b> – U.S. Steel is planning to build a new U.S. steel mill, with construction beginning next year and production planned to kick off in 2024. The move comes amid booming demand for steel as well as prices that have roughly quadrupled since the summer of 2020. Shares fell 2.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国钢铁公司(X)</b>-美国。Steel正计划在美国建造一座新钢厂，明年开始建设，计划于2024年投产。此举出台之际，钢铁需求蓬勃发展，价格自2020年夏季以来已上涨约四倍。盘前股价下跌2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Zumiez(ZUMZ)</b> – Zumiez shares rose 1% in premarket trading after the streetwear and sports apparel company announced a $150 million stock buyback program.</p><p><blockquote><b>祖米兹（ZUMZ）</b>–街头服饰和运动服装公司Zumiez宣布1.5亿美元的股票回购计划后，该公司股价在盘前交易中上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Diamondback Energy(FANG)</b> – The energy producer announced an accelerated capital return plan and approved a $2 billion stock buyback. Diamondback’s stock rallied 3.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>响尾蛇能源（FANG）</b>-这家能源生产商宣布了一项加速资本回报计划，并批准了20亿美元的股票回购。Diamondback股价在盘前交易中上涨3.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ACCD":"Accolade, Inc.","MANU":"曼联","UNM":"尤纳姆集团","ZUMZ":"Zumiez Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CPNG":"Coupang, Inc.","X":"美国钢铁","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","IVZ":"美国景顺集团","GM":"通用汽车",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","LLY":"礼来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151546238","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures fell on Friday, as steady Treasury yields after strong economic data this week pointed toward more movement out of heavyweight technology stocks.\nU.S. S&P 500 E-minis were down 10.5 points, or 0.24%, at 08:00 am ET. Dow E-minis were down 65 points, or 0.19%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 34.5 points, or 0.22%.\n\nFAANG stocks, including Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc, some of the largest tech names on Wall Street, fell slightly in premarket trading.\nFocus now turns to a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week, with investors debating if a swathe of strong economic data this week could spur the bank into shortening its timeline for reducing monetary stimulus.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nCoupang(CPNG) – Softbank’s Vision Fund sold 57 million shares of the South Korean online retailer for about $1.69 billion, according to an SEC filing.Coupang shares fell 0.4% in the premarket.\nLucid(LCID)  – EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4.7% in morning trading as its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.\nTake-Two Interactive(TTWO) – The video game maker’s stocks fell 1.5% in premarket action after BMO Capital downgraded the stock to “market perform” from “outperform.” BMO’s earnings estimates for Take-Two had been on the high end of Street forecasts, but it said it is now less confident following a series of video game release delays.\nManchester United(MANU) – The soccer team operator reported a quarterly loss that was 5.9% narower than what it lost a year ago amid a 15.9% increase in revenue. Manchester United is not providing full-year revenue or earnings guidance for fiscal 2022 due to uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.\nInvesco(IVZ) – The investment management firm is in talks to merge with State Street’s (STT) asset management unit, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal. Those sources said a deal is not imminent and might not happen at all. Invesco shares surged 4.6% in the premarket, while State Street edged up 0.8%.\nAccolade(ACCD) – The provider of workplace benefits management solutions rose 2% in the premarket after Baird upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “neutral.” Baird cited a track record of strong execution and its increasing confidence following recent conversations with management.\nUnum(UNM) – Unum is launching a new digital verification tool designed to help companies manage vaccine mandates. The insurer’s product allows workers to report vaccination status and upload documentation as well as helping companies manage exemptions.\nEli Lilly(LLY) – The drugmaker won FDA approval for expansion of the emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 treatment. The treatment can now be used in patients who could have a high risk of infection after being exposed to someone with Covid.\nGeneral Motors(GM) – GM plans to extend downtime at seven North American factories as the worldwide semiconductor shortage continues to crimp production.The shares fell 0.3% in the premarket.\nU.S. Steel(X) – U.S. Steel is planning to build a new U.S. steel mill, with construction beginning next year and production planned to kick off in 2024. The move comes amid booming demand for steel as well as prices that have roughly quadrupled since the summer of 2020. Shares fell 2.1% in the premarket.\nZumiez(ZUMZ) – Zumiez shares rose 1% in premarket trading after the streetwear and sports apparel company announced a $150 million stock buyback program.\nDiamondback Energy(FANG) – The energy producer announced an accelerated capital return plan and approved a $2 billion stock buyback. Diamondback’s stock rallied 3.7% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LLY":0.9,"CPNG":0.9,"UNM":0.9,"FANG":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"GM":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"ZUMZ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"IVZ":0.9,"X":0.9,"ACCD":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MANU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881486835,"gmtCreate":1631376294827,"gmtModify":1631891901743,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like!","listText":"Like!","text":"Like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881486835","repostId":"1105074635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814544789,"gmtCreate":1630851409841,"gmtModify":1631891901748,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!! Like pls","listText":"Great!!! Like pls","text":"Great!!! Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814544789","repostId":"1168498795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168498795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630655991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168498795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 15:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168498795","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the ch","content":"<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。随着更多的储蓄进入股票，而不是通过IPO套现或吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpeak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 15:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。随着更多的储蓄进入股票，而不是通过IPO套现或吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168498795","content_text":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.\n\nThe S&P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.\nSome things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.\nOn the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.\nThroughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.\nIt is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.\nSimilarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.\nYet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&P 500 is what puzzles me.\nThe only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.\nIn both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&P goes up. Butwhichstocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).\nThe problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.\nA simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.\nQuantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.\nGetting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.\nThe awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813790825,"gmtCreate":1630242869967,"gmtModify":1704957387734,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!! Like","listText":"Nice!! Like","text":"Nice!! Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813790825","repostId":"1184130616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184130616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111537,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184130616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184130616","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the head","content":"<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的最有权势的高调企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯斯从他的同龄人中脱颖而出——身高6英尺4英寸...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街罪与罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的最有权势的高调企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯斯从他的同龄人中脱颖而出——身高6英尺4英寸...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HRB":"H&R布洛克税务"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184130616","content_text":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 head of WorldCom was dubbed the “telecom cowboy” thanks to his sartorial preference for jeans, cowboy boots and a 10-gallon hat.\nEbbers also stood out from his peers for tightly holding on to Luddite practices as the digital age dawned. He famously refused to communicate with his workforce via email. Even worse, he stood out thanks to a prickly personality that quickly seethed when confronted with unpleasant news. A 2002 profile in The Economist defined him as “parochial, stubborn, preoccupied with penny-pinching … a difficult man to work for.”\nBut ultimately, Ebbers stood out for being at the center of what was (at the time) the largest accounting fraud in U.S. history, which was followed by the harshest prison sentence ever imposed on a corporate executive for financial crimes.\nA Man In Search Of Himself: Bernard John Ebbers was born Aug. 27, 1941, in Edmonton, Alberta, the second of five children. His father John was a traveling salesman and his peripatetic profession brought the family down from Canada into California, where he jettisoned his sales work and became an auto mechanic. The family later relocated to Gallup, New Mexico, where Ebbers’ parents became teachers on the Navajo Nation Indian reservation.\nThe Ebbers clan was back in Canada when Ebbers was a teenager and Bernie (as he was commonly known) came into adulthood unable to determine a course for his life. He attended Canada’s University of Alberta and Michigan’s Calvin College before accepting a basketball scholarship to Mississippi College. But he was the victim of a robbery prior to his senior year that left him seriously injured and switched his attention from playing to coaching the junior varsity team.\nEbbers graduated in 1967 majoring in physical education and minoring in secondary education. He supported himself during his college years by taking on a variety of odd jobs including a bouncer and milk delivery driver. He married his college sweetheart,Linda Pigott,after graduating and landed work teaching science to middle-school students while coaching high school basketball.\nBut Ebbers didn’t stay very long in the school system. When his wife received a job offer as a teacher in another Mississippi town, the couple relocated and he found work managing a garment factory warehouse. By 1974, he tired of working for others and responded to a newspaper advertisement seeking a buyer for a motel in Columbia, Mississippi.\nEbbers’ approach to running a hospitality establishment sometimes bordered on the eccentric. He would distribute bathroom towels at the front desk and require guests to return them to avoid being charged for taking them. Nonetheless, he found a niche in hospitality management and by the early 1980s he owned and operated eight motels within Mississippi and Texas; he also picked up a car dealership that also proved profitable.\nCalling Out Around The World:Ebbers might have remained in the Mississippi hospitality industry had it not been for the 1982 breakup ofAT&T Inc.'s T 0.41%monopoly on the U.S. telephone system. This created a seismic shift in the telecommunications world by enabling other companies to begin reselling long-distance telephone services.\nIn 1983, Ebbers and three friends met at a diner in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, to consider the feasibility of pursuing this newly opened opportunity. Ebbers theorized that having control of his long-distance calling services could benefit his motel business. In the days before mobile phones, guests in lodging establishments in need of long-distance calling would either have to feed handfuls of quarters into payphones or make calls from their rooms, which usually came with extra fees.\nEbbers and his pals decided to get into the telecommunications business with Long Distance Discount Services, which they established in 1985 with headquarters in Jackson, Mississippi, with Ebbers as CEO.\nCarl J. Aycock,a Mississippi financial advisor who was among the early investors in LDDS, would later laugh at the unlikelihood of Ebbers running a telecom company.\n“The only experience Bernie had before operating a long-distance company was he used the phone,” Aycock quipped in a 1997 interview.\nMaybe Ebbers did not possess an encyclopedic knowledge of telecommunications technology, but the good fortune he enjoyed in the motel business transitioned to this unlikely setting. Within four years of its launch, LDDS was being publicly traded.\nWithin 10 years of its opening, LDDS took on an almost Pac Man-style persona of gobbling up telecom firms in sight of the company, acquiring more than 60 different telecommunications company. By 1995, the company renamed itself LDDS WorldCom.\nMany of the company’s acquisitions were on the small side, and the company was never considered a major player in the telecom industry until its $720 million acquisition of Advanced Telecommunications Corporation in 1992.\nThe unlikely acquisition came with Ebbers’ ability to outbid industry titans AT&T and Sprint Corporation,both considerably larger players in this field.\nThe one unfortunate development during this time was the end of Ebbers’ marriage in 1997. He remarried in 1999 to Kristie Webb.\nIn February 1998, Ebbers’ company launched its acquisition plans for CompuServe from H&R Block Inc.\nThis transaction was followed by an astonishing spin of assets: LDDS sold the CompuServe Information Service portion of its acquisition toAmerica Online,while retaining the CompuServe Network Services portion of the business. AOL simultaneously sold LDDS WorldCom its networking division, Advanced Network Services.\nIn September 1998, LDDS WorldCom sealed a $37 billion union with MCI Communications,which created the largest corporate merger in U.S. history. The combined entity became MCI WorldCom, and for Ebbers it seemed that the sky was the limit — except that Ebbers’ ability to soar in the corporate skies resulted in an Icarus-worthy predicament.\nA Little Out Of Touch:One year after the CompuServe and MCI deals, Ebbers’ company boasted an 80,000-person workforce, a market capitalization of roughly $185 billion and its shares were trading at a peak of nearly $62.\nAt the peak of the company’s success, Ebbers granted an interview to The New York Times aboard his 130-yacht, which he berthed in the resort town of Hilton Head, South Carolina. He claimed that the secret of his success was “not as complicated as people make it out to be,” adding that he surrounded himself with experts who advised him on which moves to make.\n“I’m not an engineer by training,” he said. “I’m not an accountant by training. I’m the coach. I’m not the point guard who shoots the ball.”\nBut as the company grew larger, Ebbers penny-pinching behavior during his early motel management days became more extreme. WorldCom executives would later complain that Ebbers stopped providing free coffee within their offices and directed security guards fill the water coolers with tap water.\nAnd for the head of a telecommunications company, Ebbers was curiously distrustful of cutting-edge tech developments. He refused to communicate via email and would not carry a pager or a cell phone. He would explain his actions internally by repeating “That’s the way we did it at LDDS,” and in a 1997 Business Week interview about this behavior he claimed that “when you come to the table with a (physical education) degree like I do, you don't know a lot about the technical stuff.”\nWhile Ebbers’ arms-length distance from personal technology could have been attributed to a zany quirk, there was another problem that couldn’t be happily shrugged away. As the company expanded, operational problems began to permeate the multiple divisions. Ebbers would become impatient or worse when confronted with problems, to the point that he would angrily demand that he only wanted to be addressed with good news.\nIn retrospect, Ebbers’ refusal to acknowledge that his company was growing too fast and too large proved to be a fatal flaw, especially when the corporate culture began to manufacture good news in lieu of reporting problems. As a result, Ebbers’ XL-sized business empire was sustained by taking on massive amounts of debt and highly improper accounting.\nDetour Off The Cliff:The first cracks in this corporate story began in October 1999 when MCI WorldCom — which had become the second-largest long-distance telephone company in the country — announced a $129 billion merger with Sprint, the third-largest telecom carrier. Within nine months of this announcement, the merger was canceled in the face of pressure from U.S. and European regulators who feared a telecom monopoly would be born from this union. MCI WorldCom walked away from the failure by renaming itself as WorldCom.\nWith the rise of the new millennium came the fall of the dot-com industry, and almost any company that had a tech-related aspect found itself taking a financial tumble. When Ebbers’ company tried to cut corners and save money, it turned into an act of self-immolation.\nWorldcom’s network systems engineering division exhausted its annual capital expenditures budget by November 2000, with a senior manager ordering a halt to processing payments for network systems vendors and suppliers until the beginning of 2001.\nThe company’s chief technical officer,Fred Briggs,then ordered all of the labor associated with the capital projects in the network systems division to be booked as an expense rather than a capital project — and his directive was shared with other divisions in the company.\nA WorldCom budget analyst named Kim Amighin the company’s Richardson, Texas, office recognized the legal ramifications of intentionally mischaracterizing capital expenses and lodged a protest against the order. The directive was canceled and so was Amigh — three months after his action, Amigh was abruptly laid off from the company.\nBut Vice President of Internal Audit Cynthia Cooper learned of Amigh’s findings and picked up his trail. Her department began combing through WorldCom’s accounts and found $2 billion that the company claimed in its public filings was spent on capital expenditures during the first three quarters of 2001 — except that the funds were never authorized for that purpose and were clearly operating costs moved into the capital expenditure accounting as a way to make WorldCom look more profitable.\nCooper could not find anyone in the WorldCom leadership ranks to explain the $2 billion discrepancy. Most executives said it was a “prepaid capacity,” a meaningless term which they couldn’t define when pressed by Cooper.\nAnd Cooper was not alone in her suspicions. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could not fathom how WorldCom continued to claim robust profits during the dot-com period while its competitors were operating at a loss, and it sent forth a “Request for Information” to learn the secret of its success.\nAdding to this chaos were Ebbers’ personal financial woes, which became exacerbated during to dot-com crisis by margin calls on his WorldCom shares, which were tanking as the economy plummeted into a recession.\nTo alleviate his monetary pain, Ebbers borrowed $50 million from WorldCom in September 2000 — and then borrowed again and again. By April 2002, Ebbers was $400 million in debt to WorldCom and the board of directors demanded his resignation, which he provided.\nIn June 2002, WorldCom acknowledged its earnings reports contained $3.9 billion in accounting misstatements, with the figure later adjusted to $11 billion. In July 2002, the company declared bankruptcy and was delisted from public trading. Also during that month, Ebbers was called before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services to explain what happened. He pleaded the Fifth Amendment.\nRoad’s End:The efforts to bring Ebbers to trial got off to a weird start when the State of Oklahoma jumped the gun with a 15-count indictment, only to drop its charges in favor of federal prosecution.\nEbbers was indicted in May 2004 on seven counts of filing false statements with securities regulators plus one count each of conspiracy and securities fraud. Ebbers agreed to testify on his behalf, which many observers later considered to be a major mistake because he came across as evasive and unconvincing when insisting WorldCom’s downfall was solely the fault of his subordinates and that he was ignorant about how his company worked.\n“I know what I don’t know,” Ebbers said during his trial. “To this day, I don’t know technology, and I don’t know finance or accounting.”\nEbbers was found guilty on all counts and was sentenced to 25 years in prison, the longest sentence ever handed down in U.S. history for a financial fraud case against a corporate executive.\nHe remained free on bail while fighting to overturn the verdict, but the conviction was upheld in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in July 2006. Two months later, he drove himself in his luxury Mercedes-Benz to a low-security Louisiana prison to begin his sentence. Two years later, his wife Kristie successfully filed for divorce.\nAfter 13 years behind bars, Ebbers was granted a compassionate release on Dec. 21, 2019, due to a deteriorating state of health that included macular degeneration that left him legally blind, anemia, a weakened heart condition and the beginnings of dementia. He returned to his home in Brookhaven, Mississippi, and passed away on Feb. 2, 2020.\nIn defining his rise to the top, Ebbers harkened back to his basketball days by insisting, “The coach's job is to get the best players and get them to play together.” But in explaining his fall from grace, Ebbers forgot that the core of coaching is accepting responsibility for the team’s performance and he blamed his “best players” for not being able to “play together” while absolving himself from their errors.\nSaid Ebbers when confronted with his ultimate failure as the corporate equivalent of a coach: “I didn't have anything to apologize for.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898451385,"gmtCreate":1628518646247,"gmtModify":1631891901752,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!!","listText":"Nice!!","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898451385","repostId":"1135535489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891591452,"gmtCreate":1628396948176,"gmtModify":1631891901753,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575517733011286","idStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no!","listText":"Oh no!","text":"Oh no!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891591452","repostId":"1190347839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":814544789,"gmtCreate":1630851409841,"gmtModify":1631891901748,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!!! Like pls","listText":"Great!!! Like pls","text":"Great!!! Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814544789","repostId":"1168498795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168498795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630655991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168498795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 15:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168498795","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the ch","content":"<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。随着更多的储蓄进入股票，而不是通过IPO套现或吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpeak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 15:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。随着更多的储蓄进入股票，而不是通过IPO套现或吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168498795","content_text":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.\n\nThe S&P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.\nSome things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.\nOn the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.\nThroughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.\nIt is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.\nSimilarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.\nYet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&P 500 is what puzzles me.\nThe only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.\nIn both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&P goes up. Butwhichstocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).\nThe problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.\nA simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.\nQuantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.\nGetting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.\nThe awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881486835,"gmtCreate":1631376294827,"gmtModify":1631891901743,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like!","listText":"Like!","text":"Like!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881486835","repostId":"1105074635","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143030568,"gmtCreate":1625751945254,"gmtModify":1633937712525,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It will drop..","listText":"It will drop..","text":"It will drop..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143030568","repostId":"1184325113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184325113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625750497,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184325113?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 21:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. FDA narrows patient group for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug<blockquote>美国FDA缩小百健阿尔茨海默病药物患者群体范围</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184325113","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 8 (Reuters) - Biogen Inc said the U.S. drug regulator has narrowed the patient group that can u","content":"<p>July 8 (Reuters) - Biogen Inc said the U.S. drug regulator has narrowed the patient group that can use its Alzheimer’s disease drug, after the agency drew sharp criticism for approving the drug last month without proof of clear benefit against the disease.</p><p><blockquote>路透7月8日-百健公司(Biogen Inc)表示，美国药品监管机构已缩小了可以使用其阿尔茨海默病药物的患者群体，此前该机构因上个月在没有证据证明对该疾病有明显益处的情况下批准该药物而招致尖锐批评。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company fell nearly 3% before the bell on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价周四盘前下跌近3%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been criticized for its decision to allow wide use of Biogen’s Aduhelm among patients even though the company had tested the drug only in patients with early disease who tested positive for a component of amyloid brain plaques.</p><p><blockquote>美国。美国食品和药物管理局因决定允许Biogen的Aduhelm在患者中广泛使用而受到批评，尽管该公司仅在淀粉样脑斑块成分检测呈阳性的早期疾病患者中测试了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Aduhelm, also known as aducanumab, was approved despite a lack of clear evidence showing the drug worked and against the advice of an outside group of advisers.</p><p><blockquote>Aduhelm，也称为aducanumab，尽管缺乏明确的证据表明该药物有效，并且违背了外部顾问小组的建议，但仍获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> Several members of the FDA’s advisory panel have resigned in protest over the approval.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组的几名成员已经辞职，以抗议批准。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen said it had asked for an update to the label, a written information that accompanies a drug, after “dialogue with FDA, physicians and patient advocates.” “The intent is to help prescribing physicians to engage with patients,” Biogen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)表示，在“与FDA、医生和患者权益倡导者对话”后，已要求更新标签（药物附带的书面信息）。百健(Biogen)在一份声明中表示：“其目的是帮助处方医生与患者互动。”</blockquote></p><p> The new label says that treatment with the drug should be initiated in patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia stage of the disease.</p><p><blockquote>新标签称，轻度认知障碍或轻度痴呆阶段的患者应开始使用该药物进行治疗。</blockquote></p><p> It also says there is no safety or effectiveness data on initiating treatment at earlier or later stages of the disease.</p><p><blockquote>它还表示，没有关于在疾病早期或晚期开始治疗的安全性或有效性数据。</blockquote></p><p> The new patient population is largely in-line with how the drug was expected to be used, Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas said in a note. She expects roughly $12 billion in peak sales by 2031.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Securities分析师Robyn Karnauskas在一份报告中表示，新的患者群体在很大程度上符合该药物的预期使用方式。她预计到2031年销售额峰值约为120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen’s drug has been hailed by patient advocates and some neurologists eager for a treatment for the memory-robbing disease. Other doctors said clinical trial results were inconsistent and more proof was needed.</p><p><blockquote>Biogen的药物受到了患者权益倡导者和一些渴望治疗这种记忆丧失疾病的神经科医生的欢迎。其他医生表示，临床试验结果不一致，需要更多证据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. FDA narrows patient group for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug<blockquote>美国FDA缩小百健阿尔茨海默病药物患者群体范围</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. FDA narrows patient group for Biogen's Alzheimer's drug<blockquote>美国FDA缩小百健阿尔茨海默病药物患者群体范围</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 21:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>July 8 (Reuters) - Biogen Inc said the U.S. drug regulator has narrowed the patient group that can use its Alzheimer’s disease drug, after the agency drew sharp criticism for approving the drug last month without proof of clear benefit against the disease.</p><p><blockquote>路透7月8日-百健公司(Biogen Inc)表示，美国药品监管机构已缩小了可以使用其阿尔茨海默病药物的患者群体，此前该机构因上个月在没有证据证明对该疾病有明显益处的情况下批准该药物而招致尖锐批评。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the company fell nearly 3% before the bell on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价周四盘前下跌近3%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been criticized for its decision to allow wide use of Biogen’s Aduhelm among patients even though the company had tested the drug only in patients with early disease who tested positive for a component of amyloid brain plaques.</p><p><blockquote>美国。美国食品和药物管理局因决定允许Biogen的Aduhelm在患者中广泛使用而受到批评，尽管该公司仅在淀粉样脑斑块成分检测呈阳性的早期疾病患者中测试了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Aduhelm, also known as aducanumab, was approved despite a lack of clear evidence showing the drug worked and against the advice of an outside group of advisers.</p><p><blockquote>Aduhelm，也称为aducanumab，尽管缺乏明确的证据表明该药物有效，并且违背了外部顾问小组的建议，但仍获得批准。</blockquote></p><p> Several members of the FDA’s advisory panel have resigned in protest over the approval.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组的几名成员已经辞职，以抗议批准。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen said it had asked for an update to the label, a written information that accompanies a drug, after “dialogue with FDA, physicians and patient advocates.” “The intent is to help prescribing physicians to engage with patients,” Biogen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>百健(Biogen)表示，在“与FDA、医生和患者权益倡导者对话”后，已要求更新标签（药物附带的书面信息）。百健(Biogen)在一份声明中表示：“其目的是帮助处方医生与患者互动。”</blockquote></p><p> The new label says that treatment with the drug should be initiated in patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia stage of the disease.</p><p><blockquote>新标签称，轻度认知障碍或轻度痴呆阶段的患者应开始使用该药物进行治疗。</blockquote></p><p> It also says there is no safety or effectiveness data on initiating treatment at earlier or later stages of the disease.</p><p><blockquote>它还表示，没有关于在疾病早期或晚期开始治疗的安全性或有效性数据。</blockquote></p><p> The new patient population is largely in-line with how the drug was expected to be used, Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas said in a note. She expects roughly $12 billion in peak sales by 2031.</p><p><blockquote>Truist Securities分析师Robyn Karnauskas在一份报告中表示，新的患者群体在很大程度上符合该药物的预期使用方式。她预计到2031年销售额峰值约为120亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Biogen’s drug has been hailed by patient advocates and some neurologists eager for a treatment for the memory-robbing disease. Other doctors said clinical trial results were inconsistent and more proof was needed.</p><p><blockquote>Biogen的药物受到了患者权益倡导者和一些渴望治疗这种记忆丧失疾病的神经科医生的欢迎。其他医生表示，临床试验结果不一致，需要更多证据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/biogen-alzheimers-fda/update-2-u-s-fda-narrows-patient-group-for-biogens-alzheimers-drug-idUSL3N2OK2XT\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BIIB":"渤健公司"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/biogen-alzheimers-fda/update-2-u-s-fda-narrows-patient-group-for-biogens-alzheimers-drug-idUSL3N2OK2XT","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184325113","content_text":"July 8 (Reuters) - Biogen Inc said the U.S. drug regulator has narrowed the patient group that can use its Alzheimer’s disease drug, after the agency drew sharp criticism for approving the drug last month without proof of clear benefit against the disease.\nShares of the company fell nearly 3% before the bell on Thursday.\nThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been criticized for its decision to allow wide use of Biogen’s Aduhelm among patients even though the company had tested the drug only in patients with early disease who tested positive for a component of amyloid brain plaques.\nAduhelm, also known as aducanumab, was approved despite a lack of clear evidence showing the drug worked and against the advice of an outside group of advisers.\nSeveral members of the FDA’s advisory panel have resigned in protest over the approval.\nBiogen said it had asked for an update to the label, a written information that accompanies a drug, after “dialogue with FDA, physicians and patient advocates.” “The intent is to help prescribing physicians to engage with patients,” Biogen said in a statement.\nThe new label says that treatment with the drug should be initiated in patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia stage of the disease.\nIt also says there is no safety or effectiveness data on initiating treatment at earlier or later stages of the disease.\nThe new patient population is largely in-line with how the drug was expected to be used, Truist Securities analyst Robyn Karnauskas said in a note. She expects roughly $12 billion in peak sales by 2031.\nBiogen’s drug has been hailed by patient advocates and some neurologists eager for a treatment for the memory-robbing disease. Other doctors said clinical trial results were inconsistent and more proof was needed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIIB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":865096452,"gmtCreate":1632922485825,"gmtModify":1632922507602,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865096452","repostId":"1136349988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868560763,"gmtCreate":1632672667552,"gmtModify":1632798652732,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls!&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls!&nbsp;","text":"Like pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868560763","repostId":"1175726457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175726457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632626757,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175726457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 11:25","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175726457","media":"Market Watch","summary":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for tw","content":"<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会击败市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Market analysts can’t agree on where stocks are going next. So double-check the data before you buy or sell<blockquote>观点：市场分析师对于股市下一步走势无法达成一致。因此，在买卖之前请仔细检查数据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market Watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-26 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s an urgent question, since the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个紧迫的问题，因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>经济意外指数（CESI）在连续一年多上涨后，已经连续两个月为负。CESI衡量最新经济消息偏离华尔街共识的程度。因此，过去两个月CESI数据持续为负，这意味着总体而言，经济消息比预期的要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Is it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?</p><p><blockquote>近期美国经济新闻发布明显逊于预期，对股票投资者来说是好消息还是坏消息？</blockquote></p><p> The latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团经济意外指数（CESI）的最新读数为负29.2。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>10天前，这个数字甚至更低，为负61.7。过去18年的平均值为4.6。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd20c01571a824c8113089a65b814bb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> There is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.</p><p><blockquote>我监督的顾问们对这些最新读数的含义没有达成共识。一些人认为这是好消息，反向理论认为，差于预期的消息构成了美国牛市可以攀登的“担忧之墙”。其他人则认为，你不能粉饰比预期更糟糕的经济消息。</blockquote></p><p> To help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&amp;P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助解决他们的分歧，我分析了2003年以来的每日CESI数据。具体来说，我测量了它与标普500 SPX的相关性，在随后的一个月、一个季度、六个月内+0.15%的回报率，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>年。我没有发现任何符合传统统计意义标准的东西。</blockquote></p><p> A summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&amp;P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.</p><p><blockquote>我的发现总结如下图所示。请注意，无论CESI是正还是负、趋势上升还是下降，标普500的平均回报几乎是相同的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65016b28c482526ac92a5d6035ba9ed9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> These findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”</p><p><blockquote>这些发现并不是对CESI本身的批评。花旗集团创建该指数是为了作为外汇交易者的有用工具。花旗集团表示，CESI“是独特专有设计的完美例子，对讨论它的人几乎没有影响……它不应该用于股票价格。”</blockquote></p><p> There’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有一个更广泛的教训需要我们学习：我们需要让我们的直觉接受经验现实的检验。当我们的预感看起来如此明显正确时，这一点尤其重要——就像经济消息是好于预期还是差于预期的情况一样。股市历史充满了必然会发生但却没有发生的预期。</blockquote></p><p> It can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.</p><p><blockquote>在庞大的数据库中翻阅一个模式是否真的存在可能是一件乏味的事情。但努力是值得的。虽然统计上的严谨并不能保证你会击败市场，但如果你在统计上草率和不一致，你肯定会输给市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page\">Market Watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-analysts-cant-agree-on-where-stocks-are-going-next-so-double-check-the-data-before-you-buy-or-sell-11632447577?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175726457","content_text":"It’s an urgent question, since the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has been negative for two months now, following an unbroken positive stretch for more than a year. The CESI measures the extent to which the latest economic news deviates from the Wall Street consensus. The past two months of consistently negative CESI readings therefore mean that the economic news, on balance, has been worse than expected.\nIs it good news or bad for stock investors that recent U.S. economic news releases have been significantly worse than expected?\nThe latest reading from the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) is minus 29.2. Just 10 days ago it was even more negative, at minus 61.7. Its average over the last 18 years is 4.6.\n\nThere is no consensus among the advisers I monitor about what these latest readings mean. Some believe it’s good news, on the contrarian theory that the worse-than-expected news constitutes a“wall of worry”that the U.S. bull market can climb. Others argue that you can’t sugar-coat worse-than-expected economic news.\nTo help resolve their disagreement, I analyzed daily CESI data back to 2003. Specifically, I measured its correlation with the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.15%return over the subsequent month-, quarter-, six months, and one year. I came up with nothing that met traditional standards of statistical significance.\nA summary of what I found is plotted in the chart below. Notice that the S&P 500’s average return is virtually the same regardless of whether the CESI is positive or negative, trending upward or downward.\n\nThese findings are not a criticism of the CESI itself. Citigroup created the index as a useful tool for foreign exchange traders.Citigroup has saidthat the CESI “is a perfect example of unique proprietary design which has almost no bearing on those who discuss it… It was not meant to be used for stock prices.”\nThere’s a broader lesson here for us to learn as well: We need to subject our intuitions to empirical reality checks. That’s especially important when our hunches seem so obviously true — as is the case when it comes to whether the economic news is coming in better or worse than expected. Stock market history is filled with expectations that were guaranteed to happen but which did not.\nIt can be tedious plowing through huge databases to see if a pattern really exists. But it’s worth the effort. Though being statistically rigorous does not guarantee that you will beat the market, you most assuredly will lose to the market if you’re statistically sloppy and inconsistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141604740,"gmtCreate":1625854416780,"gmtModify":1633936682790,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141604740","repostId":"1155625151","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154329914,"gmtCreate":1625481893938,"gmtModify":1633940320153,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls!!","listText":"Like pls!!","text":"Like pls!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154329914","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?<blockquote>独立日股票市场是开放还是关闭？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 13:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p><p><blockquote>对许多人来说，美国的独立日是野餐和海滩日。但今年7月4日是周日，这在美国不是交易日。</blockquote></p><p> So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p><p><blockquote>那么假期主要市场会开盘还是收盘呢？</blockquote></p><p> The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克将于7月5日星期一休市，以庆祝独立日。</blockquote></p><p> It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p><p><blockquote>这是今年股市九个完整休市日之一。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>例如，股市将于11月25日星期四感恩节休市。11月26日星期五，交易时间为半天多一点，上午9:30至下午1点。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p> Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>正常股票交易时间为上午9:30至下午4点。东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153820321,"gmtCreate":1625017854563,"gmtModify":1633945797767,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nope! It will just rise!!","listText":"Nope! It will just rise!!","text":"Nope! It will just rise!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153820321","repostId":"1187567340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187567340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625017360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187567340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要崩溃吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187567340","media":"Barrons","summary":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices hav","content":"<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入了竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了10%以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在经历21世纪初的过度行为，当时房价在市场崩溃之前飙升？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，价格下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来更坚固。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。如今，它们更接近几十年来普遍存在的水平。由于供应链中断，加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求突然增加，已建成并准备入住的库存比例特别低。当买家急切地抢购可用房屋时，我们不应该太担心崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由相信房地产崩盘不太可能发生：即使是2005年的高库存水平也远不像大多数人想象的那样具有投机性。理解原因将有助于我们解读今天的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销量很高，而且在该国需求强劲的部分地区销量很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大了库存。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——以当前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应所需的月数——作为上一次繁荣期间过度建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的函数，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋就会周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售迅速下降时，建筑商往往会留下出乎意料的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从20世纪90年代末一直到2005年中期新房销售高峰，库存处于历史低点，还剩大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额大幅下降的同时，几个月的库存急剧上升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，也有大约四个月的库存，销售额与20世纪90年代末大致相同。因此，虽然很容易从实地活动中得出结论，低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞购战，但我们需要记住，买家实际上更多地推动了库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不可能突然让在建房屋库存消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>对新房的需求实际上是联邦政策制定者可以控制的。美联储和其他联邦监管机构的目标应该是避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及针对价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保维持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不维持。大衰退如此严重的原因之一是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对销售的可怕崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和卖家束手无策。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000年代的市场也比看起来要有弹性得多。根据Zillow的数据，2005年7月，当买家退出、数月库存开始激增时，美国房价中位数为198,000美元。2008年7月，当数月库存接近峰值时，仍为19.9万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在2006年6月的美联储会议上，本·伯南克说：“住房正在降温是一件好事。如果我们能挥动魔杖，恢复2005年，我们就不会想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆·鲍威尔并没有公开渴望房地产市场“降温”。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。事实证明，那些买家错了。然而，即使扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得了成功，我们也必须在价格回落之前整整三年的时间里击败他们。房价可以下跌，但我们必须非常努力，一起，在很长一段时间内，让它们下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个房价比一年前高出30%的热门市场的买家，那么你得到的交易比当时糟糕30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要需要关注的是联邦政策制定者控制的因素。几乎没有理由预计住房需求会崩溃。如果是这样，它将需要公共意图——旨在创造或接受需求急剧下降的联邦货币和信贷政策。即使联邦官员打算让住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场收缩也会在很长一段时间内导致新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要崩溃吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要崩溃吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入了竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了10%以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在经历21世纪初的过度行为，当时房价在市场崩溃之前飙升？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，价格下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来更坚固。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。如今，它们更接近几十年来普遍存在的水平。由于供应链中断，加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求突然增加，已建成并准备入住的库存比例特别低。当买家急切地抢购可用房屋时，我们不应该太担心崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由相信房地产崩盘不太可能发生：即使是2005年的高库存水平也远不像大多数人想象的那样具有投机性。理解原因将有助于我们解读今天的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销量很高，而且在该国需求强劲的部分地区销量很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大了库存。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——以当前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应所需的月数——作为上一次繁荣期间过度建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的函数，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋就会周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售迅速下降时，建筑商往往会留下出乎意料的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从20世纪90年代末一直到2005年中期新房销售高峰，库存处于历史低点，还剩大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额大幅下降的同时，几个月的库存急剧上升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，也有大约四个月的库存，销售额与20世纪90年代末大致相同。因此，虽然很容易从实地活动中得出结论，低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞购战，但我们需要记住，买家实际上更多地推动了库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不可能突然让在建房屋库存消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>对新房的需求实际上是联邦政策制定者可以控制的。美联储和其他联邦监管机构的目标应该是避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及针对价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保维持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不维持。大衰退如此严重的原因之一是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对销售的可怕崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和卖家束手无策。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000年代的市场也比看起来要有弹性得多。根据Zillow的数据，2005年7月，当买家退出、数月库存开始激增时，美国房价中位数为198,000美元。2008年7月，当数月库存接近峰值时，仍为19.9万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在2006年6月的美联储会议上，本·伯南克说：“住房正在降温是一件好事。如果我们能挥动魔杖，恢复2005年，我们就不会想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆·鲍威尔并没有公开渴望房地产市场“降温”。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。事实证明，那些买家错了。然而，即使扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得了成功，我们也必须在价格回落之前整整三年的时间里击败他们。房价可以下跌，但我们必须非常努力，一起，在很长一段时间内，让它们下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个房价比一年前高出30%的热门市场的买家，那么你得到的交易比当时糟糕30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要需要关注的是联邦政策制定者控制的因素。几乎没有理由预计住房需求会崩溃。如果是这样，它将需要公共意图——旨在创造或接受需求急剧下降的联邦货币和信贷政策。即使联邦官员打算让住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场收缩也会在很长一段时间内导致新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187567340","content_text":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have appreciated by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?\nSome analysts argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.\nNew home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of inventory built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.\nYet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.\nIn 2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.\nFrequently, analysts cite the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.\nFrom the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.\nToday, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.\nDemand for new homes is something over which federal policy makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.\nBut even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.\nAt the June 2006 Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.\nThere is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.\nIf you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864160263,"gmtCreate":1633074817584,"gmtModify":1633074817856,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864160263","repostId":"2172951249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":155655204,"gmtCreate":1625417148408,"gmtModify":1633940844264,"author":{"id":"3575517733011286","authorId":"3575517733011286","name":"UpUpUpUpUp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f92e5e26e6e720eda3643248da3c21eb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575517733011286","authorIdStr":"3575517733011286"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155655204","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}