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2021-06-21
Hmmm
Nomura Warns Of Market "Reversal Risk" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>
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21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":120028613,"gmtCreate":1624289074732,"gmtModify":1634008305836,"author":{"id":"3575551452310924","authorId":"3575551452310924","name":"Hjjdn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5415026e9d53f3535a26cef9114d2f5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575551452310924","idStr":"3575551452310924"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120028613","repostId":"1133913488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133913488","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624283796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133913488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133913488","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead......which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already s","content":"<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNomura Warns Of Market \"Reversal Risk\" As FedSpeak Walks Back 'Bullard Bomb'<blockquote>野村证券警告市场“逆转风险”，美联储讲话收回“布拉德炸弹”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns<b>traders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week</b>-<i>especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...</i></p><p><blockquote>继上周美联储的“鹰派惊喜”和吉姆·布拉德周五早上的“你认为这是鹰派，拿着我的啤酒”时刻引发市场烟花之后，许多市场参与者尖叫“政策错误”，野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特警告说<b>交易员现在需要为本周一些潜在的“言论逆转”做好准备</b>-<i>尤其是当我们看到一个令人震惊的十六（！）未来日历上的美联储发言人...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9c98ddf2dc1b15c2d57d8c2421a348\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>...which is notable in that both</i><i><b>Treasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows</b></i><i>...</i></p><p><blockquote><i>值得注意的是</i><i><b>美国国债收益率和股市已经大幅高于亚洲重新开放的低点</b></i><i>...</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d6b2b76cf82953faef9bf5fab63418\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Which McElligott warns,<b>risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,”</b> particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, <i>after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week</i> (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)</p><p><blockquote>McElligott警告说，<b>造成逆势逆转的风险可能会让许多人再次措手不及，因为从战术上讲，美联储任何后退的迹象都可能引发“通货再膨胀”的观点。</b>特别是如果美元从这里进一步走弱，实际收益率将再次向负值倾斜，UST曲线在上周令人眼花缭乱的清算/止损后再次“熊市陡峭”——这也可能引发美国股市先前“周期性价值超过长期增长”趋势的同时反弹，<i>上周，上述表达方式的票房大幅下降</i>（纳斯达克上周+0.4%，罗素-4.1%）</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>Equities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>上周股市“通货再膨胀”：野村10年期收益率敏感因子-4.6%；周期价值因子-3.5%；增长预测-3.1%；LT动量-3.1%；沃尔夫狂热价值-2.7%；防御价值-2.4%</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><i>Equities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>上周股市“久期”：IG信用敏感因子+2.7%；高频拥挤+2.2%；低风险+2.0%；尺寸（大-小）+1.3%；股息+1.0%</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>This is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought</b><i>-</i>an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, <b>ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是美联储“不惜一切代价维持宽松的金融环境”这一不言而喻的“第三项任务”所取得的成就</b><i>-</i>这是一个荒谬的循环，美联储政策和美国经济实际上发挥了作用，在“旧”央行中，美联储将相应地转向“鹰派”并开始收紧政策；但在“美联储看跌”的世界秩序中，市场力量现在将上述“紧缩”对经济放缓的负面影响提前，并产生“缩减恐慌”，造成市场波动，<b>最终迫使美联储让步——如果市场发生鹰派基调转变。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca8c1b6e282ef937647386ccbcdc21b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In this case,<b>the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -</b><i>i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!</i></p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，<b>本周的风险是，美联储发言人非常活跃的日历中的一些人现在将表达“担忧”，即上周的点阵图和SEP将违背他们之前陈述的事实愿望，并阻碍未来的增长和通胀预期，然后可以传达这些预测的“条件”程度如何——</b><i>即淡化他们的预测能力，试图扭转市场因美联储“鹰派转向”而对“金融状况收紧”的部分拉动，这抵消了他们之前重置未来通胀预期的努力！</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72edd0892cdcb8696310f135ba5dec38\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed<b><i>- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.</i></b></p><p><blockquote>正如我们以前无数次看到的那样，如果美联储再次向市场力量“屈膝”，风险资产的波动率飙升和强制去杠杆/对冲就会被“丰富的波动率”逆转，然后被出售，这在标准的滞后方式中将意味着，随着预期的“美联储回溯”之后，随着波动率被粉碎，跟踪rVol然后重置较低，动态对冲（空头）的大量回补和/或风险资产敞口的机械再杠杆化将导致市场恢复上涨<b><i>-“向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞”冲洗/重复。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> To further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, <b>we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex </b><b><i>(although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).</i></b></p><p><blockquote>为了进一步促进这些潜在的“弹弓”（向下碰撞，然后向上碰撞）光学器件，<b>在上周异常超大的Op-Ex之后，我们现在本质上看到了更“干净”的期权定位（当前ES为4167，这是“Delta中性vs现货”水平）</b><b><i>（尽管值得注意的是，我们现在处于“短伽马vs现货”区域，位于4167 last vs 4237“伽马中性”线）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8e096623b51035a7813c45b7dc2b02\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>And in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd </b><b><i>(particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk),</i></b><b> this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves</b>- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.</p><p><blockquote><b>在VRP人群将增量“鹰派美联储意外”成交量飙升出售给交易商的情况下</b><b><i>（特别是本周任何“美联储回退”的迹象），</i></b><b>这种波动性和伽马的冲动供应将再次使市场更加稳定、隔离，因为交易商“做多伽马”意味着对冲流动将进一步抑制市场波动的可能性</b>-因此，“销量销售”反馈循环的良性循环阶段。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-warns-market-reversal-risk-fedspeak-walks-back-bulard-bomb?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133913488","content_text":"After last week’s market fireworks on the Fed's \"hawkish surprise\" and Jim Bullard's \"you think that's hawkish, hold my beer\" moment on Friday morning, which has many market participants screaming “policy error\", Nomura's Charlie McElligott warnstraders now need to be ready for some potential “reversal of the rhetoric” this week-especially as we are looking at an astounding sixteen (!) Fed speakers on the calendar ahead...\n...which is notable in that bothTreasury Yields and Equities are already substantially higher versus Asian reopening lows...\nWhich McElligott warns,risks creating a counter-trend reversal which could catch many flat-footed again as tactically, any semblance of walking-back from the Fed could then elicit an optic of “Reflation,” particularly if USD were to weaken further from here, Real Yields were to again tilt more negative and UST curves then again “bear-steepen” after their eye-water liquidations / stop-out last week—which too would then likely trigger a concurrent bounceback of the prior “Cyclical Value over Secular Growth” trend in US Equities, after said expressions were powerfully de-grossed last week (Nasdaq +0.4% last wk vs Russell -4.1%)\n\nEquities “Reflation” last week: Nomura 10 Yr Yield Sensitive Factor -4.6%; Cyclical Value Factor -3.5%; Growth Nowcast -3.1%; LT Momentum -3.1%; Wolfe AVID Value -2.7%; Defensive Value -2.4%\nEquities “Duration” last week: IG Credit Sensitive Factor +2.7%; HF Crowding +2.2%; Low Risk +2.0%; Size (Big-Small) +1.3%; Dividend +1.0%\n\nThis is what the unspoken “third Fed mandate” of maintaining “easy financial conditions at all costs” hath wrought-an absurd cycle where Fed policy and the US economy actually works to a point where in “old” central banking, the Fed would accordingly pivot “hawkish” and begin tightening policy; but in the “Fed Put” world order, market forces now pull-ahead the negative economic slowdown implications of said “tightening” and have “taper tantrums” creating market volatility, ultimately forcing the Fed to walk-back hawkish tone shifts if the market.\nIn this case,the risk this week then becomes that some portion of the very active calendar of Fed speakers will now voice a “concern” that last week’s dot plot and SEP will work against their previously stated FAIT desire and impede future growth- and inflation- expectations,and could then message on just how “conditional” those forecasts are -i.e. downplaying their forecasting ability, in an attempt to reverse some of the market’s pull-forward of “tighter financial conditions” due to perceived “hawkish pivot” from Fed which nullifies their own prior efforts to reset future inflation expectations!\nAnd as we have now seen countless times before, if the Fed then again “bends the knee” to market forces, the vol spike and forced deleveraging / hedging of risk-assets is then reversed with “rich vols” then sold into, which in standard lagging-fashion will mean that as trailing rVol then resets lower following the expected “Fed back-track,” a large covering of dynamic hedges (shorts) and / or mechancial re-leveraging of risk-asset exposure from “Target Volatility / Vol Control” universe will then see markets resume their rise, as vols are smashed- “Crash-down, then crash-up” rinse / repeat.\nTo further contribute to these potential “sling-shot” (crash-down, then crash-up) optics, we now inherently see much “cleaner” options positioning (current ES at 4167, which is the “Delta Neutral vs Spot” level) post last week’s abnormally outsized Op-Ex (although worth-noting that we are now in “short Gamma vs spot” territory at 4167 last vs 4237 “Gamma neutral” line).\n\nAnd in the case that the incremental “hawkish Fed surprise” vol spike is sold into Dealers by the VRP crowd (particular with any semblance of “Fed walk-back” this wk), this impulse supply of Volatility- and Gamma- will again then perpetuate a more stable, insulated market thereafter, as Dealer “long Gamma” means hedging flows will further squelch the potential for market moves- hence, the virtuous cycle phase of the “vol selling” feedback loop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
