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Lucky03

Lucky03

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2021-12-30

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Singapore Stock Market May Fade On Thursday<blockquote>新加坡股市周四可能下跌</blockquote>

2021-12-28

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Netflix Stock: This Analyst Predicts 20% Returns<blockquote>Netflix 股票：这位分析师预测回报率为 20%</blockquote>

2021-12-02

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2021-11-15

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Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>

2021-11-14

Yep

Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>

2021-11-13

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Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote>

2021-11-02

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Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾2%创新高</blockquote>

2021-11-02

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2021-10-31

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2021-10-31

Coming soon ?

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2021-10-28

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Investors decipher inverted long end of U.S. yield curve<blockquote>投资者解读美国收益率曲线倒挂长端</blockquote>

2021-10-28

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$good dtock

2021-10-17

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2021-10-12

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2021-10-11

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$time to buy back

2021-10-09

$GameStop(GME)$is GM range boind 160-180 ?

2021-10-09

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2021-10-08

Just delaying the problem.

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2021-10-07

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$Good stock

2021-10-07

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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692930668","repostId":"1174778626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174778626","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640822866,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1174778626?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 08:07","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stock Market May Fade On Thursday<blockquote>新加坡股市周四可能下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174778626","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has tracked higher in two straight sessions, gathering almost 35 points o","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Singapore stock market has tracked higher in two straight sessions, gathering almost 35 points or 1.1 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,140-point plateau and it&#39;s expected to remain in that neighborhood again on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>新加坡股市连续两个交易日走高，一路上涨近35点，涨幅1.1%。海峡时报指数目前略低于 3,140 点的平台位，预计周四将再次保持在该附近。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets is murky following reports that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has fueled a worldwide spike in the illness. The European and U.S. markets were mixed and little changed and the Asian markets figure to follow that lead.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，冠状病毒的奥密克戎变种在全球范围内引发了该疾病的激增，因此亚洲市场的全球预测变得黯淡。欧洲和美国市场涨跌互现，变化不大，亚洲市场预计也将紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p>The STI finished modestly higher on Wednesday following gains from the financials, industrials, properties and plantations.</p><p><blockquote>受金融、工业、房地产和种植园板块上涨影响，STI 周三小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p>For the day, the index gained 9.61 points or 0.31 percent to finish at 3,138.02 after trading between 3,132.87 and 3,140.52. Volume was 868.1 million shares worth 450.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 274 gainers and 156 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨 9.61 点或 0.31%，收于 3,138.02 点，交易价格在 3,132.87 至 3,140.52 之间。成交量为8.681亿股，价值4.501亿新加坡元。有274只上涨，156只下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT jumped 1.02 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust added 0.49 percent, City Developments gathered 0.74 percent, Dairy Farm International tumbled 1.72 percent, DBS Group rose 0.09 percent, Genting Singapore surged 1.29 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust spiked 1.07 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.18 percent, SATS fell 0.26 percent, Singapore Airlines perked 0.60 percent, Singapore Exchange dipped 0.21 percent, SingTel sank 0.85 percent, Thai Beverage and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding both climbed 0.76 percent, United Overseas Bank and Jardine Matheson both advanced 0.56 percent, Wilmar International soared 1.21 percent and Hongkong Land, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Technologies Engineering, SembCorp Industries and Comfort DelGro were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>成份股中，升天产业信讬上涨1.02%，凯德综合商业信托上涨0.49%，城市发展上涨0.74%，乳业国际下跌1.72%，星展集团上涨0.09%，云顶新加坡飙升1.29%，吉宝集团上涨0.39%，丰树物流信托飙升1.07%，华侨银行上涨0.18%，国泰下跌0.26%，新加坡航空上涨0.60%，新加坡交易所下跌0.21%，新加坡电信下跌0.85%，泰国饮料和扬子江船舶均上涨0.76%，大华银行和怡和洋行均上涨0.56%，丰益国际飙升1.21%，香港置地、丰树商业信托、新加坡报业控股、新加坡科技工程、</blockquote></p><p>The lead from Wall Street provides little clarity. All three of the major averages opened higher on Wednesday, and the Dow stayed that way throughout. The NASDAQ quickly turned lower and finished slightly under the line. The S&amp;P 500 bounced back and forth and ended slightly in the green.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的线索并没有提供什么清晰度。三大股指周三均开盘走高，道琼斯指数自始至终保持这一走势。纳斯达克很快转向下方，最终略低于终点线。标普500来回反弹，以略微绿色结束。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow advanced 90.42 points or 0.25 percent to finish at 36,488.63, while the NASDAQ dipped 15.51 points or 0.10 percent to close at 15,766.22 and the S&amp;P rose 6.71 points or 0.14 percent to end at 4,793.06.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨90.42点或0.25%，收于36,488.63点，而纳斯达克指数下跌15.51点或0.10%，收于15,766.22点，标准普尔指数上涨6.71点或0.14%，收于4,793.06点。</blockquote></p><p>Traders seemed reluctant to continue making significant moves following recent strength in the markets, which has helped stocks recover from the sell-off seen in reaction to initial reports about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>在近期市场走强之后，交易员似乎不愿继续采取重大举措，这帮助股市从有关冠状病毒奥密克戎变种的初步报道引起的抛售中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>While Omicron has contributed to a surge in new coronavirus cases around the world, traders seem optimistic that the milder symptoms associated with the new strain will not lead to a significant economic slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>尽管奥密克戎导致全球新型冠状病毒病例激增，但交易员似乎乐观地认为，与新毒株相关的较轻症状不会导致经济大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p>On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Realtors noted an unexpected pullback in pending home sales in November.</p><p><blockquote>在美国经济方面，全国房地产经纪人协会指出，11 月份待售房屋销售意外下降。</blockquote></p><p>Crude oil prices moved higher Wednesday, extending recent gains after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. Crude oil for February delivery climbed $0.58 or 0.8 percent to $76.56 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署表示上周美国原油库存降幅超出预期后，原油价格周三走高，延续了近期涨幅。2月份交割的原油价格上涨0.58美元或0.8%，至每桶76.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stock Market May Fade On Thursday<blockquote>新加坡股市周四可能下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stock Market May Fade On Thursday<blockquote>新加坡股市周四可能下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">RTTNews</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 08:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Singapore stock market has tracked higher in two straight sessions, gathering almost 35 points or 1.1 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,140-point plateau and it&#39;s expected to remain in that neighborhood again on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>新加坡股市连续两个交易日走高，一路上涨近35点，涨幅1.1%。海峡时报指数目前略低于 3,140 点的平台位，预计周四将再次保持在该附近。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The global forecast for the Asian markets is murky following reports that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has fueled a worldwide spike in the illness. The European and U.S. markets were mixed and little changed and the Asian markets figure to follow that lead.</p><p><blockquote>有报道称，冠状病毒的奥密克戎变种在全球范围内引发了该疾病的激增，因此亚洲市场的全球预测变得黯淡。欧洲和美国市场涨跌互现，变化不大，亚洲市场预计也将紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p>The STI finished modestly higher on Wednesday following gains from the financials, industrials, properties and plantations.</p><p><blockquote>受金融、工业、房地产和种植园板块上涨影响，STI 周三小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p>For the day, the index gained 9.61 points or 0.31 percent to finish at 3,138.02 after trading between 3,132.87 and 3,140.52. Volume was 868.1 million shares worth 450.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 274 gainers and 156 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨 9.61 点或 0.31%，收于 3,138.02 点，交易价格在 3,132.87 至 3,140.52 之间。成交量为8.681亿股，价值4.501亿新加坡元。有274只上涨，156只下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Among the actives, Ascendas REIT jumped 1.02 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust added 0.49 percent, City Developments gathered 0.74 percent, Dairy Farm International tumbled 1.72 percent, DBS Group rose 0.09 percent, Genting Singapore surged 1.29 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust spiked 1.07 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.18 percent, SATS fell 0.26 percent, Singapore Airlines perked 0.60 percent, Singapore Exchange dipped 0.21 percent, SingTel sank 0.85 percent, Thai Beverage and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding both climbed 0.76 percent, United Overseas Bank and Jardine Matheson both advanced 0.56 percent, Wilmar International soared 1.21 percent and Hongkong Land, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Technologies Engineering, SembCorp Industries and Comfort DelGro were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>成份股中，升天产业信讬上涨1.02%，凯德综合商业信托上涨0.49%，城市发展上涨0.74%，乳业国际下跌1.72%，星展集团上涨0.09%，云顶新加坡飙升1.29%，吉宝集团上涨0.39%，丰树物流信托飙升1.07%，华侨银行上涨0.18%，国泰下跌0.26%，新加坡航空上涨0.60%，新加坡交易所下跌0.21%，新加坡电信下跌0.85%，泰国饮料和扬子江船舶均上涨0.76%，大华银行和怡和洋行均上涨0.56%，丰益国际飙升1.21%，香港置地、丰树商业信托、新加坡报业控股、新加坡科技工程、</blockquote></p><p>The lead from Wall Street provides little clarity. All three of the major averages opened higher on Wednesday, and the Dow stayed that way throughout. The NASDAQ quickly turned lower and finished slightly under the line. The S&amp;P 500 bounced back and forth and ended slightly in the green.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的线索并没有提供什么清晰度。三大股指周三均开盘走高，道琼斯指数自始至终保持这一走势。纳斯达克很快转向下方，最终略低于终点线。标普500来回反弹，以略微绿色结束。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow advanced 90.42 points or 0.25 percent to finish at 36,488.63, while the NASDAQ dipped 15.51 points or 0.10 percent to close at 15,766.22 and the S&amp;P rose 6.71 points or 0.14 percent to end at 4,793.06.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨90.42点或0.25%，收于36,488.63点，而纳斯达克指数下跌15.51点或0.10%，收于15,766.22点，标准普尔指数上涨6.71点或0.14%，收于4,793.06点。</blockquote></p><p>Traders seemed reluctant to continue making significant moves following recent strength in the markets, which has helped stocks recover from the sell-off seen in reaction to initial reports about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.</p><p><blockquote>在近期市场走强之后，交易员似乎不愿继续采取重大举措，这帮助股市从有关冠状病毒奥密克戎变种的初步报道引起的抛售中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p>While Omicron has contributed to a surge in new coronavirus cases around the world, traders seem optimistic that the milder symptoms associated with the new strain will not lead to a significant economic slowdown.</p><p><blockquote>尽管奥密克戎导致全球新型冠状病毒病例激增，但交易员似乎乐观地认为，与新毒株相关的较轻症状不会导致经济大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p>On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Realtors noted an unexpected pullback in pending home sales in November.</p><p><blockquote>在美国经济方面，全国房地产经纪人协会指出，11 月份待售房屋销售意外下降。</blockquote></p><p>Crude oil prices moved higher Wednesday, extending recent gains after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. Crude oil for February delivery climbed $0.58 or 0.8 percent to $76.56 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署表示上周美国原油库存降幅超出预期后，原油价格周三走高，延续了近期涨幅。2月份交割的原油价格上涨0.58美元或0.8%，至每桶76.56美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3251959/singapore-stock-market-may-fade-on-thursday.aspx?type=acom\">RTTNews</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3251959/singapore-stock-market-may-fade-on-thursday.aspx?type=acom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174778626","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has tracked higher in two straight sessions, gathering almost 35 points or 1.1 percent along the way. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,140-point plateau and it's expected to remain in that neighborhood again on Thursday.The global forecast for the Asian markets is murky following reports that the Omicron variant of the coronavirus has fueled a worldwide spike in the illness. The European and U.S. markets were mixed and little changed and the Asian markets figure to follow that lead.The STI finished modestly higher on Wednesday following gains from the financials, industrials, properties and plantations.For the day, the index gained 9.61 points or 0.31 percent to finish at 3,138.02 after trading between 3,132.87 and 3,140.52. Volume was 868.1 million shares worth 450.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 274 gainers and 156 decliners.Among the actives, Ascendas REIT jumped 1.02 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust added 0.49 percent, City Developments gathered 0.74 percent, Dairy Farm International tumbled 1.72 percent, DBS Group rose 0.09 percent, Genting Singapore surged 1.29 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Mapletree Logistics Trust spiked 1.07 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.18 percent, SATS fell 0.26 percent, Singapore Airlines perked 0.60 percent, Singapore Exchange dipped 0.21 percent, SingTel sank 0.85 percent, Thai Beverage and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding both climbed 0.76 percent, United Overseas Bank and Jardine Matheson both advanced 0.56 percent, Wilmar International soared 1.21 percent and Hongkong Land, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Singapore Press Holdings, Singapore Technologies Engineering, SembCorp Industries and Comfort DelGro were unchanged.The lead from Wall Street provides little clarity. All three of the major averages opened higher on Wednesday, and the Dow stayed that way throughout. The NASDAQ quickly turned lower and finished slightly under the line. The S&P 500 bounced back and forth and ended slightly in the green.The Dow advanced 90.42 points or 0.25 percent to finish at 36,488.63, while the NASDAQ dipped 15.51 points or 0.10 percent to close at 15,766.22 and the S&P rose 6.71 points or 0.14 percent to end at 4,793.06.Traders seemed reluctant to continue making significant moves following recent strength in the markets, which has helped stocks recover from the sell-off seen in reaction to initial reports about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.While Omicron has contributed to a surge in new coronavirus cases around the world, traders seem optimistic that the milder symptoms associated with the new strain will not lead to a significant economic slowdown.On the U.S. economic front, the National Association of Realtors noted an unexpected pullback in pending home sales in November.Crude oil prices moved higher Wednesday, extending recent gains after the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. Crude oil for February delivery climbed $0.58 or 0.8 percent to $76.56 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696346538,"gmtCreate":1640633624459,"gmtModify":1640633624657,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696346538","repostId":"1144860100","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144860100","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640619133,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144860100?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-27 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix Stock: This Analyst Predicts 20% Returns<blockquote>Netflix 股票：这位分析师预测回报率为 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144860100","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Even after NFLX's performance so far in 2021, Wall Street analysts see long-term gain potential in t","content":"<p>Even after NFLX's performance so far in 2021, Wall Street analysts see long-term gain potential in this streaming stock.</p><p><blockquote>即使在 NFLX 2021 年迄今为止的表现之后，华尔街分析师仍然看到了这只流媒体股票的长期增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix&nbsp;stock has retreated from its late October high around $690 per share to below $610.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 股价已从 10 月下旬每股 690 美元左右的高点回落至 610 美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors are worried that the streaming giant's stock will continue to drop. But others are wondering whether Netflix shares will reach new highs in the coming months, making right now a good opportunity to buy.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者担心这家流媒体巨头的股价将继续下跌。但其他人想知道 Netflix 股价是否会在未来几个月创下新高，这使得现在成为买入的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts are starting to feel bullish about Netflix. They're setting increasingly higher price targets for its stock.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师开始看好 Netflix。他们为其股票设定了越来越高的价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> So let's take a closer look at NFLX and assess its long-term investment potential.</p><p><blockquote>因此，让我们仔细看看NFLX并评估其长期投资潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4620ec9673ba0cb8ccca4acd4ade01\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：位于加利福尼亚州洛斯加托斯的网飞总部。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Evercore Forecasts a 20% Return for NFLX</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Evercore 预测 NFLX 的回报率为 20%</b></blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney has set his NFLX target at $710, keeping his buy recommendation. This price target opens up an opportunity to achieve an almost 20% return on Netflix shares, compared with today's trading price ($605).</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Mark Mahaney 将 NFLX 目标定为 710 美元，维持买入建议。与今天的交易价格（605 美元）相比，这一价格目标为 Netflix 股票实现近 20% 的回报提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> If Netflix stock does reach $710, it will be the company's all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Netflix 股价确实达到 710 美元，这将是该公司的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Mahaney is among TipRanks.com's top 100 analysts. He covers the technology sector and has a success rate of over 60% on his recommendations. Additionally, Mahaney has an average return of 43% within TipRanks.</p><p><blockquote>Mahaney 是 TipRanks.com 百强分析师之一。他涵盖技术领域，他的建议成功率超过60%。此外，Mahaney 在 TipRanks 中的平均回报率为 43%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TipRanks Price Targets for NFLX</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TipRanks NFLX 的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks, based on 31 analysts who cover NFLX, the average target share price is $678. This already suggests a great upside potential of around 12% from the current price. On average, the stock is rated a moderate buy.</p><p><blockquote>根据 TipRanks 的数据，基于 31 位研究 NFLX 的分析师，平均目标股价为 678 美元。这已经表明较当前价格上涨约 12% 的巨大潜力。平均而言，该股被评为适度买入。</blockquote></p><p> The highest reported price target is $800, which points to potential gains of over 30% ahead. Such a high valuation probably takes into account Netflix remaining the market leader of the streaming sector in coming years. To do that, it will have to stay ahead of its biggest competitors, Disney&nbsp;and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>报道的最高目标价为 800 美元，这表明未来潜在涨幅超过 30%。如此高的估值可能考虑到了 Netflix 在未来几年仍将是流媒体行业的市场领导者。要做到这一点，它必须领先于其最大的竞争对手迪士尼和亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> The lowest NFLX price target on TipRanks is $342, which would represent a loss of more than 40%.</p><p><blockquote>TipRanks 上 NFLX 的最低目标价为 342 美元，这意味着损失超过 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Of all 31 ratings on NFLX, 24 analysts label the stock a buy, four indicate you should hold, and three recommend selling.</p><p><blockquote>在 NFLX 的所有 31 个评级中，24 位分析师将该股标记为买入，4 位表示应持有，3 位建议卖出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even after Netflix's big stock rally last fall, we still see room for appreciation. Year to date, NFLX has appreciated by more than 15%. But it is already far from its top. And that leaves room for a possible buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>即使在 Netflix 去年秋天股价大幅上涨之后，我们仍然看到了升值空间。今年迄今为止，NFLX 已升值超过 15%。但它已经远未达到顶峰。这为可能的买入机会留下了空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd970e1a30a0271380825554f364907d\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"428\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN, DIS, NFLX and SPY performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AMZN、DIS、NFLX 和SPDR标普500指数ETF表现。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even so, it's up to the investor to decide whether the company isn't overpriced and whether the Netflix's metrics are evolving as expected by the market. After all, currently, NFLX is trading at multiples much higher than the rest of the streaming industry.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，还是由投资者来决定该公司是否定价过高，以及 Netflix 的指标是否按照市场预期发展。毕竟，目前 NFLX 的市盈率远高于流媒体行业的其他公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix Stock: This Analyst Predicts 20% Returns<blockquote>Netflix 股票：这位分析师预测回报率为 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix Stock: This Analyst Predicts 20% Returns<blockquote>Netflix 股票：这位分析师预测回报率为 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-27 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even after NFLX's performance so far in 2021, Wall Street analysts see long-term gain potential in this streaming stock.</p><p><blockquote>即使在 NFLX 2021 年迄今为止的表现之后，华尔街分析师仍然看到了这只流媒体股票的长期增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix&nbsp;stock has retreated from its late October high around $690 per share to below $610.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix 股价已从 10 月下旬每股 690 美元左右的高点回落至 610 美元以下。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors are worried that the streaming giant's stock will continue to drop. But others are wondering whether Netflix shares will reach new highs in the coming months, making right now a good opportunity to buy.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者担心这家流媒体巨头的股价将继续下跌。但其他人想知道 Netflix 股价是否会在未来几个月创下新高，这使得现在成为买入的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts are starting to feel bullish about Netflix. They're setting increasingly higher price targets for its stock.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师开始看好 Netflix。他们为其股票设定了越来越高的价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> So let's take a closer look at NFLX and assess its long-term investment potential.</p><p><blockquote>因此，让我们仔细看看NFLX并评估其长期投资潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4620ec9673ba0cb8ccca4acd4ade01\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：位于加利福尼亚州洛斯加托斯的网飞总部。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Evercore Forecasts a 20% Return for NFLX</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Evercore 预测 NFLX 的回报率为 20%</b></blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney has set his NFLX target at $710, keeping his buy recommendation. This price target opens up an opportunity to achieve an almost 20% return on Netflix shares, compared with today's trading price ($605).</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI 分析师 Mark Mahaney 将 NFLX 目标定为 710 美元，维持买入建议。与今天的交易价格（605 美元）相比，这一价格目标为 Netflix 股票实现近 20% 的回报提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> If Netflix stock does reach $710, it will be the company's all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>如果 Netflix 股价确实达到 710 美元，这将是该公司的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Mahaney is among TipRanks.com's top 100 analysts. He covers the technology sector and has a success rate of over 60% on his recommendations. Additionally, Mahaney has an average return of 43% within TipRanks.</p><p><blockquote>Mahaney 是 TipRanks.com 百强分析师之一。他涵盖技术领域，他的建议成功率超过60%。此外，Mahaney 在 TipRanks 中的平均回报率为 43%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TipRanks Price Targets for NFLX</b></p><p><blockquote><b>TipRanks NFLX 的目标价</b></blockquote></p><p> According to TipRanks, based on 31 analysts who cover NFLX, the average target share price is $678. This already suggests a great upside potential of around 12% from the current price. On average, the stock is rated a moderate buy.</p><p><blockquote>根据 TipRanks 的数据，基于 31 位研究 NFLX 的分析师，平均目标股价为 678 美元。这已经表明较当前价格上涨约 12% 的巨大潜力。平均而言，该股被评为适度买入。</blockquote></p><p> The highest reported price target is $800, which points to potential gains of over 30% ahead. Such a high valuation probably takes into account Netflix remaining the market leader of the streaming sector in coming years. To do that, it will have to stay ahead of its biggest competitors, Disney&nbsp;and Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>报道的最高目标价为 800 美元，这表明未来潜在涨幅超过 30%。如此高的估值可能考虑到了 Netflix 在未来几年仍将是流媒体行业的市场领导者。要做到这一点，它必须领先于其最大的竞争对手迪士尼和亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> The lowest NFLX price target on TipRanks is $342, which would represent a loss of more than 40%.</p><p><blockquote>TipRanks 上 NFLX 的最低目标价为 342 美元，这意味着损失超过 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Of all 31 ratings on NFLX, 24 analysts label the stock a buy, four indicate you should hold, and three recommend selling.</p><p><blockquote>在 NFLX 的所有 31 个评级中，24 位分析师将该股标记为买入，4 位表示应持有，3 位建议卖出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Our Take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even after Netflix's big stock rally last fall, we still see room for appreciation. Year to date, NFLX has appreciated by more than 15%. But it is already far from its top. And that leaves room for a possible buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>即使在 Netflix 去年秋天股价大幅上涨之后，我们仍然看到了升值空间。今年迄今为止，NFLX 已升值超过 15%。但它已经远未达到顶峰。这为可能的买入机会留下了空间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd970e1a30a0271380825554f364907d\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"428\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN, DIS, NFLX and SPY performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：AMZN、DIS、NFLX 和SPDR标普500指数ETF表现。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even so, it's up to the investor to decide whether the company isn't overpriced and whether the Netflix's metrics are evolving as expected by the market. After all, currently, NFLX is trading at multiples much higher than the rest of the streaming industry.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，还是由投资者来决定该公司是否定价过高，以及 Netflix 的指标是否按照市场预期发展。毕竟，目前 NFLX 的市盈率远高于流媒体行业的其他公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/streaming/nflx/netflix-stock-this-analyst-predicts-20-returns\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/streaming/nflx/netflix-stock-this-analyst-predicts-20-returns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144860100","content_text":"Even after NFLX's performance so far in 2021, Wall Street analysts see long-term gain potential in this streaming stock.\nNetflix stock has retreated from its late October high around $690 per share to below $610.\nSome investors are worried that the streaming giant's stock will continue to drop. But others are wondering whether Netflix shares will reach new highs in the coming months, making right now a good opportunity to buy.\nWall Street analysts are starting to feel bullish about Netflix. They're setting increasingly higher price targets for its stock.\nSo let's take a closer look at NFLX and assess its long-term investment potential.\nFigure 1: Netflix headquarters in Los Gatos, CA.\nEvercore Forecasts a 20% Return for NFLX\nEvercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney has set his NFLX target at $710, keeping his buy recommendation. This price target opens up an opportunity to achieve an almost 20% return on Netflix shares, compared with today's trading price ($605).\nIf Netflix stock does reach $710, it will be the company's all-time high.\nMahaney is among TipRanks.com's top 100 analysts. He covers the technology sector and has a success rate of over 60% on his recommendations. Additionally, Mahaney has an average return of 43% within TipRanks.\nTipRanks Price Targets for NFLX\nAccording to TipRanks, based on 31 analysts who cover NFLX, the average target share price is $678. This already suggests a great upside potential of around 12% from the current price. On average, the stock is rated a moderate buy.\nThe highest reported price target is $800, which points to potential gains of over 30% ahead. Such a high valuation probably takes into account Netflix remaining the market leader of the streaming sector in coming years. To do that, it will have to stay ahead of its biggest competitors, Disney and Amazon.\nThe lowest NFLX price target on TipRanks is $342, which would represent a loss of more than 40%.\nOf all 31 ratings on NFLX, 24 analysts label the stock a buy, four indicate you should hold, and three recommend selling.\nOur Take\nEven after Netflix's big stock rally last fall, we still see room for appreciation. Year to date, NFLX has appreciated by more than 15%. But it is already far from its top. And that leaves room for a possible buying opportunity.\nFigure 2: AMZN, DIS, NFLX and SPY performance.\nEven so, it's up to the investor to decide whether the company isn't overpriced and whether the Netflix's metrics are evolving as expected by the market. After all, currently, NFLX is trading at multiples much higher than the rest of the streaming industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603553100,"gmtCreate":1638431197201,"gmtModify":1638431229765,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like.please","listText":"Like.please","text":"Like.please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603553100","repostId":"2188594373","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873837458,"gmtCreate":1636911856632,"gmtModify":1636911856759,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873837458","repostId":"1159096163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159096163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636851053,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159096163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie &amp; Fitch 的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie's（股票代码：ANF）曾经是商场的主打产品，凭借鲜明、性感的广告和黑暗、充满香水的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在 2017 年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的持续下降给该品牌的未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的购物中心和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎又要夺走另一个受害者了。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但是在去葬礼的路上发生了一件令人惊讶的事情：阿伯克龙比享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨 (Fran Horowitz) 的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调其 Hollister 品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>在截至 7 月 31 日的第二财季中，该公司的收入同比增长了 24%，比大流行前的水平增长了 3%。随着购物者将现金涌回商店，其股价今年上涨了 120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨在接受采访时说：”品牌认知是一件很难扭转的事情，重建消费者的信任需要时间。<i>巴伦</i>. “因此，在 2021 年，我们很高兴地说，我们显然看到了所有这些辛勤工作的奇妙成果”。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅从深渊中挣脱出来，还利用大流行病带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌，销售额飙升，股价上涨，这得益于强劲的市场和消费者争先恐后地花掉大流行储蓄。许多大型商场零售商的股价都飙升，包括梅西百货（M）、诺德斯特龙（JWN）、著名鞋类母公司 Caleres（加州）和 Signet Jewelers（SIG），这些公司在过去 12 个月中都上涨了至少 100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会（National Retail Federation）的数据，消费者可支出 8510 亿美元，比去年创纪录的 7770 亿美元增长了 9.5%，是过去五年平均增长率 4.4% 的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售恢复正常之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意想不到的复兴，再次印证了不少品牌对实体店力量的信心。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们仍在继续大力押注实体未来。随着对实体店的投资继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题显而易见。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌入网上。亚马逊 (AMZN) 和沃尔玛 (WMT) 等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 零售分析师 Mari Shor 说：”投资者的情绪--尤其是短期对冲基金类型的投资者--对该集团的情绪刚刚变得非常负面。“我只是认为，投资者并没有真正给公司或消费者带来怀疑的好处”。</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔说，投资者的疑虑源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存下来。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会来关闭表现不佳的门店，并专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上变得更好，并将销售策略转变为随时随地瞄准消费者，无论是在线、移动还是店内。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司希望在连接数字和店内运营的同时推动增长的一个例子是，Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。根据全国零售联合会的估计，这个假日季在线和其他非实体店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“Global X 负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”我们认为，大流行病不仅加速了电子商务在全球的普及，还扩大了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在其数字战略上投入了数亿美元，强调从数字体验到店内体验的平稳过渡，并采取了改进公司网站、实行店内退货和网上购物提货等举措。霍洛维茨说，大流行病的到来促使 Abercrombie 关闭了全球 130 家门店和 50% 的品牌旗舰店，使过去 10 年关闭的门店总数达到约 500 家，同时战略性地开设了几家重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”商店固然重要，但必须有合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济性。“如果你把它和数字技术结合在一起，那就等于神奇了”。</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B. Riley Securities 分析师苏珊·安德森 (Susan Anderson) 表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效方式，而且还可以作为在线取货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，甚至像Warby Parker（WRBY）这样的在线零售商也扩大了他们的实体存在，以适应购物者的偏好。“安德森说：”消费者希望随时随地购物。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。购物中心和实体店在精通数字的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>根据BHDP今年早些时候委托一家以零售为专长的设计公司对1000名购物者进行的调查，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁的购物者也回到了商场，试穿产品，使用店内促销，并进行退货。德勤美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯 (Rod Sides) 表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人口统计的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间战略的转变使许多零售商在今年重新开放购物中心和市中心时处于更有利的地位，购物者渴望打开他们的钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者意外地变得兴奋起来。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用的下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤（Deloitte）的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假日季比去年多花费 15%，平均每户花费 2624 美元，这在很大程度上推动了假日季的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>“穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）说：”你有很多现金，而且有相当数量的需求被压抑。</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9 月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至 6250 亿美元，比 10 月份增长 0.7%，同比增长 13.9%。仅零售额就比 8 月份增长了 0.8%。“花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）说：”我们原本预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官马修·谢伊 (Matthew Shay) 在 10 月份的媒体吹风会上表示，零售商在进入假日季时比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测本季美国零售额将增长 7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品行业将出现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商 Burberry Group (BRBY.UK) 上周表示，2022 财年上半年的可比销售额增长了 37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 公布的第一财季收益好于预期，上调了 2022 年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩说：“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地承受了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表”。Wolfe Research 看好 Nordstrom 和 Tapestry 等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“几乎所有美国消费者支出的主要驱动因素都青睐高端市场”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，越来越多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai 商场交通统计数据显示，10 月份室内商场的客流量比 2019 年增长了 3%，室外商场的客流量增长了 5%，这也是商场商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团（SPG）的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>“华盛顿地区泰森斯角中心（Tysons Corner Center）高级营销经理林赛-佩塔克（Lindsay Petak）说：”随着越来越多的人全面接种疫苗，再加上由于供应链问题，许多人在即将到来的假期提前购物，自 7 月以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。该购物中心由 Macerich (MAC) 所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的库存上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金（XRT）上涨了85%，而标普500上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品 ETF (RCD) 今年的表现优于标普500 5 个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>“NRF 的 Shay 说：”我们已经看到，一旦经济重新开放，百货商店、服装和非必需品零售商就会真正反弹。“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店一直是节日期间的热门目的地......今年，百货商店仍然是人们购物的首选场所”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与网上商店有所不同，但它们会一直存在下去。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴是否具有长期可持续性尚未定论。零售商在远离常态的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更加具有投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师珍妮-斯蒂奇特（Janine Stichter）说：”我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为现在整个行业有太多的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度将表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“霍洛维茨说：”供应链问题是真实存在的。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在第二季度财报看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，预计对销售的影响不大，运费通胀的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克说，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者提前开始购物--这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月可能会有所下降。“她说：”支出并不一定会减弱很多，只是几个月的分布情况有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter 表示，另一方面，低库存将赋予零售商更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修-福雷斯特（Matthew Forester）说，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“他说：”总体而言，美国经济显然正在放缓。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这也是很可能发生的事情。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他说，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出欣喜若狂。他说，虽然下降可能并不 “可怕”，但与现在的消费者支出水平相比，仍将有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿伯克龙比正在其实体店的帮助下度过逆风。该公司正计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单路由到商店，并与 Uber、Shipt 和 Postmates 合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司 American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 最近宣布收购 Quiet Logistics，这是一家在市中心附近运营自动化配送中心的运营商，就在几周前，AirTerra 专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨说：”我们将继续努力。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商继续前进，末日预言者可能不得不推迟预言零售世界末日。目前，人们的情绪很明确：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又凉了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie &amp; Fitch 的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie's（股票代码：ANF）曾经是商场的主打产品，凭借鲜明、性感的广告和黑暗、充满香水的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在 2017 年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的持续下降给该品牌的未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的购物中心和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎又要夺走另一个受害者了。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但是在去葬礼的路上发生了一件令人惊讶的事情：阿伯克龙比享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨 (Fran Horowitz) 的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调其 Hollister 品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>在截至 7 月 31 日的第二财季中，该公司的收入同比增长了 24%，比大流行前的水平增长了 3%。随着购物者将现金涌回商店，其股价今年上涨了 120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨在接受采访时说：”品牌认知是一件很难扭转的事情，重建消费者的信任需要时间。<i>巴伦</i>. “因此，在 2021 年，我们很高兴地说，我们显然看到了所有这些辛勤工作的奇妙成果”。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅从深渊中挣脱出来，还利用大流行病带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌，销售额飙升，股价上涨，这得益于强劲的市场和消费者争先恐后地花掉大流行储蓄。许多大型商场零售商的股价都飙升，包括梅西百货（M）、诺德斯特龙（JWN）、著名鞋类母公司 Caleres（加州）和 Signet Jewelers（SIG），这些公司在过去 12 个月中都上涨了至少 100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会（National Retail Federation）的数据，消费者可支出 8510 亿美元，比去年创纪录的 7770 亿美元增长了 9.5%，是过去五年平均增长率 4.4% 的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售恢复正常之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意想不到的复兴，再次印证了不少品牌对实体店力量的信心。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们仍在继续大力押注实体未来。随着对实体店的投资继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题显而易见。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌入网上。亚马逊 (AMZN) 和沃尔玛 (WMT) 等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 零售分析师 Mari Shor 说：”投资者的情绪--尤其是短期对冲基金类型的投资者--对该集团的情绪刚刚变得非常负面。“我只是认为，投资者并没有真正给公司或消费者带来怀疑的好处”。</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔说，投资者的疑虑源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存下来。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会来关闭表现不佳的门店，并专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上变得更好，并将销售策略转变为随时随地瞄准消费者，无论是在线、移动还是店内。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司希望在连接数字和店内运营的同时推动增长的一个例子是，Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。根据全国零售联合会的估计，这个假日季在线和其他非实体店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“Global X 负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”我们认为，大流行病不仅加速了电子商务在全球的普及，还扩大了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在其数字战略上投入了数亿美元，强调从数字体验到店内体验的平稳过渡，并采取了改进公司网站、实行店内退货和网上购物提货等举措。霍洛维茨说，大流行病的到来促使 Abercrombie 关闭了全球 130 家门店和 50% 的品牌旗舰店，使过去 10 年关闭的门店总数达到约 500 家，同时战略性地开设了几家重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”商店固然重要，但必须有合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济性。“如果你把它和数字技术结合在一起，那就等于神奇了”。</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B. Riley Securities 分析师苏珊·安德森 (Susan Anderson) 表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效方式，而且还可以作为在线取货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，甚至像Warby Parker（WRBY）这样的在线零售商也扩大了他们的实体存在，以适应购物者的偏好。“安德森说：”消费者希望随时随地购物。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。购物中心和实体店在精通数字的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>根据BHDP今年早些时候委托一家以零售为专长的设计公司对1000名购物者进行的调查，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁的购物者也回到了商场，试穿产品，使用店内促销，并进行退货。德勤美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯 (Rod Sides) 表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人口统计的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间战略的转变使许多零售商在今年重新开放购物中心和市中心时处于更有利的地位，购物者渴望打开他们的钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者意外地变得兴奋起来。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用的下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤（Deloitte）的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假日季比去年多花费 15%，平均每户花费 2624 美元，这在很大程度上推动了假日季的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>“穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）说：”你有很多现金，而且有相当数量的需求被压抑。</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9 月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至 6250 亿美元，比 10 月份增长 0.7%，同比增长 13.9%。仅零售额就比 8 月份增长了 0.8%。“花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）说：”我们原本预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官马修·谢伊 (Matthew Shay) 在 10 月份的媒体吹风会上表示，零售商在进入假日季时比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测本季美国零售额将增长 7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品行业将出现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商 Burberry Group (BRBY.UK) 上周表示，2022 财年上半年的可比销售额增长了 37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 公布的第一财季收益好于预期，上调了 2022 年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩说：“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地承受了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表”。Wolfe Research 看好 Nordstrom 和 Tapestry 等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“几乎所有美国消费者支出的主要驱动因素都青睐高端市场”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，越来越多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai 商场交通统计数据显示，10 月份室内商场的客流量比 2019 年增长了 3%，室外商场的客流量增长了 5%，这也是商场商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团（SPG）的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>“华盛顿地区泰森斯角中心（Tysons Corner Center）高级营销经理林赛-佩塔克（Lindsay Petak）说：”随着越来越多的人全面接种疫苗，再加上由于供应链问题，许多人在即将到来的假期提前购物，自 7 月以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。该购物中心由 Macerich (MAC) 所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的库存上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金（XRT）上涨了85%，而标普500上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品 ETF (RCD) 今年的表现优于标普500 5 个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>“NRF 的 Shay 说：”我们已经看到，一旦经济重新开放，百货商店、服装和非必需品零售商就会真正反弹。“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店一直是节日期间的热门目的地......今年，百货商店仍然是人们购物的首选场所”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与网上商店有所不同，但它们会一直存在下去。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴是否具有长期可持续性尚未定论。零售商在远离常态的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更加具有投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师珍妮-斯蒂奇特（Janine Stichter）说：”我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为现在整个行业有太多的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度将表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“霍洛维茨说：”供应链问题是真实存在的。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在第二季度财报看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，预计对销售的影响不大，运费通胀的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克说，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者提前开始购物--这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月可能会有所下降。“她说：”支出并不一定会减弱很多，只是几个月的分布情况有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter 表示，另一方面，低库存将赋予零售商更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修-福雷斯特（Matthew Forester）说，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“他说：”总体而言，美国经济显然正在放缓。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这也是很可能发生的事情。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他说，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出欣喜若狂。他说，虽然下降可能并不 “可怕”，但与现在的消费者支出水平相比，仍将有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿伯克龙比正在其实体店的帮助下度过逆风。该公司正计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单路由到商店，并与 Uber、Shipt 和 Postmates 合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司 American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 最近宣布收购 Quiet Logistics，这是一家在市中心附近运营自动化配送中心的运营商，就在几周前，AirTerra 专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨说：”我们将继续努力。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商继续前进，末日预言者可能不得不推迟预言零售世界末日。目前，人们的情绪很明确：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又凉了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SIG":"西格内特珠宝","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","ANF":"爱芬奇","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","WMT":"沃尔玛","M":"梅西百货","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRBY.UK":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"ANF":0.9,"SIG":0.9,"TPR":0.9,"BBRYF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"CAL":0.9,"M":0.9,"RCD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873935022,"gmtCreate":1636825718126,"gmtModify":1636825718223,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yep","listText":"Yep","text":"Yep","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873935022","repostId":"1129004768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129004768","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636764434,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129004768?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-13 08:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129004768","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The Bear Argument, And Why It's Wrong<blockquote>苹果：熊的论点，以及为什么它是错误的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 08:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.</li>  <li>I list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</li>  <li>Maybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc955cc5d27328c3b89b327b9368d27\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1020\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价未能长期保持在每股150美元以上，空头开始关注近期价格的疲软。</li><li>我列出了几个最流行的看跌论点，并解释了为什么我认为它们要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</li><li>也许 AAPL 不是那种值得一买的股票，但我仍然认为这是一只在未来几年内值得今天持有的股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kmwphotography/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果 (AAPL) 再次未能创下历史新高，目前较峰值下跌约 6%，并接近关键移动平均线支撑位，空头已开始关注。尽管如此，我认为从长远来看，卖出（或做空）这只股票的理由并没有太大的说服力，我相信空头最终会厌倦逆流而上。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我列出了人们可能想要抛售或远离苹果股票的几个最常见的原因，以及为什么我认为看跌案例要么是短视的，要么很可能是不正确的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #1: drop-off in demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#1：需求下降</b></blockquote></p><p> Not many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;and Satori Fund's&nbsp;Dan Niles&nbsp;are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.</p><p><blockquote>没有多少分析师和投资组合经理公开表示要避免或出售苹果。New Street 的 Pierre Ferragu 和 Satori Fund 的 Dan Niles 等专家是少数几个浮现在脑海中的专家，他们的论点似乎与我最近看到的所有其他看跌 AAPL 的看涨期权非常一致。</blockquote></p><p> The first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder&nbsp;Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票的第一个常见原因通常有不同的表述方式，但可以有效地总结如下：苹果近期的财务业绩应该会受到需求的影响，而需求已经在 2020 年转化为收入。疫情和居家消费浪潮。在iPhone 13推出后尤其如此，一些人（包括传奇的苹果创始人Steve Wozniak）认为这只是对之前型号的一个小升级。</blockquote></p><p> I see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.</p><p><blockquote>我看到了这里的担忧，特别是考虑到苹果将在假期和假期后的季度开始面临难以逾越的iPhone竞争——见下图。但同一张图表也显示，在iPhone 12发布之前的许多季度里，似乎存在相当多被压抑的需求。从2019-2020财年到2021财年销售转变的一个可能理由是苹果较晚进入5G领域。忠实于或只是偏爱iOS设备的消费者可能会耐心等待升级或切换，然后他们一次性完成所有操作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc677f0a1c77dd39f40b4cc99c6fc15\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: DM Martins Research, data from company reports</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：DM Martins Research，数据来自公司报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.</p><p><blockquote>这或许也有助于部分解释为什么苹果在大中华区的收入在过去 6 到 12 个月中飙升。随着该国5G基础设施的进一步发展，拥有一台能够处理更快速度的设备可能是最有意义的。至少可以说，自 2015 年以来，该地区的销售额一直低迷，2020 财年第四季度同比下降高达 29%。然而，在过去三个季度中，收入每个时期至少增长了 57%。</blockquote></p><p> In the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在过去的12个季度——大约是iPhone的平均使用寿命——苹果的智能手机销量每年仅增长4.8%。考虑到ASP（平均售价）在此期间可能会增加，这个数字很难代表整个周期内设备出货量的任何有意义的增长。因此，认为苹果产品的需求接下来会断崖式下跌似乎有些牵强，尤其是如果还考虑到Mac和iPad的芯片创新和设计更新的话。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #2: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要风险#2：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS&nbsp;to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的另一个经常被提及的主要风险是估值。上面提到的丹·奈尔斯 (Dan Niles) 表示，明年 26 倍的市盈率可能甚至不是最大的交易。问题是，与适度的增长预期相比，这个倍数看起来太高了。分析师预计，到 2025 财年，苹果的每股收益每年仅增长 4%。Alphabet (GOOG)（GOOGL）的市盈率相似，预计同期每年盈利将增长 16%。</blockquote></p><p> That, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个更合理的看跌论点。根据我的估计，苹果是迄今为止PEG比率（长期每股收益增长的市盈率）最高的股票，为6.5倍。亚马逊 (AMZN) 在该指标上遥遥领先，为 2.3 倍。但即使在这里，我也看到了一个有利于苹果的好论点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> First, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer&nbsp;have been hurting social media companies&nbsp;and their financial statements&nbsp;led to the Nasdaqe&nbsp;rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司已被证明是科技界强大的守门人。这里有一个例子：第一个也是最明显的迹象是，苹果今年夏天的iOS隐私政策变化一直在伤害社交媒体公司，他们的财务报表导致纳斯达克市值在几分钟内飙升1200亿美元——其中大部分来自互联网股票。面对这种市场控制，人们是否应该期望为股票支付溢价？我会这么说。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0946db3f3bc62569a56f2dbe2aa75922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Also, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如上图所示，与几年前相比，苹果的未来一年市盈率肯定有所扩大。但多年来的走高似乎与以下因素一致：（1）对苹果产品和服务的需求增加，（2）更好的利润率，（3）2020年利率下降，以及（4）广泛的股票市场普遍变得更加昂贵。与大约三个月前 AAPL 的交易方式相比，市盈率实际上已经下降了约三次，并回到了 2021 年初的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key risk #3: lack of positive catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键风险#3：缺乏积极的催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> The next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and&nbsp;so has the refreshed lineup&nbsp;of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.</p><p><blockquote>投资苹果的下一个经常被提及的风险是短期催化剂。iPhone 13几周前发布，配备新M1 Pro和Max芯片的MacBook Pro设备阵容也是如此。第四财季盈利也已成为过去。事实上，我认为第四季度相关苹果新闻的下降与 11 月至 1 月期间季节性表现较差的股票密切相关。看空者还可能认为，由于未来几个季度的艰难竞争，投资者可能很难在未来几个月找到购买 AAPL 的理由。</blockquote></p><p> But here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.</p><p><blockquote>但是在这里，我相信一点耐心是必要的。首先，仅近期股价的低迷就足以吸引寻求优质股票优惠的投资者的新资金。但更重要的是，长期催化剂可能会在未来五年内对股价和财务业绩产生更大影响。</blockquote></p><p> I have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and&nbsp;autonomous vehicle&nbsp;has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.</p><p><blockquote>我之前更详细地谈到了两个很快浮现在脑海中的催化剂。我怀疑混合现实和自动驾驶汽车等举措的太多上涨空间是否已被纳入分析师的财务模型，因此，该股的定价也得到了适当的体现。由于苹果是由一个保守的高管团队管理的，我敢打赌，如果这两个巨大的增长机会能够增加公司的盈利，那么它们就会被追求。因此，它们应该成为推动长期增长预期（这与上述风险 1 相关）和股价上涨的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be&nbsp;in February 2021&nbsp;or, better yet,in April 2018&nbsp;– in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可能不会像我在 2021 年 2 月或更好的是，在 2018 年 4 月所认为的那样是千载难逢的机会——在这两种情况下，我都认为股票无缘无故地抛售。但我仍然认为 AAPL 是未来几年值得持有的股票，尤其是现在市盈率已开始向一年前的水平重新评估。如果苹果在短期内继续走低，回调（假设商业基本面没有有意义的变化）将提供更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468890-apple-the-bear-argument-and-why-its-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129004768","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has failed to stay above $150 per share for long, and bears are starting to pay attention to the recent weakness in price.\nI list a couple of the most popular bearish arguments, and explain why I believe that they are either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nMaybe AAPL is not the same pound-the-table buy, but I continue to think that this is a stock to own today through the next several years.\n\nkmwphotography/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Apple (AAPL) once again failing to make fresh all-time highs, now down around 6% from the peak and dipping closer towards key moving-average support, bears have started to pay attention. Still, I think that the case for selling (or shorting) this stock does not hold much water in the long term, and I believe that bears will ultimately tire of swimming against the current.\nBelow, I list the most common few reasons why one might want to dump or stay away from Apple shares – and why I think that the bearish case is either short-sighted or most likely incorrect.\nKey risk #1: drop-off in demand\nNot many analysts and portfolio managers have been vocal about avoiding or selling Apple. Experts like New Street's Pierre Ferragu and Satori Fund's Dan Niles are the few that come to mind, and their theses seem to align pretty well with every other bearish call on AAPL that I have seen recently.\nThe first common reason to sell the stock is often phrased in different ways, but can effectively be summarized as follows: Apple's financial results in the near term should suffer from demand that has already turned into revenues in calendar 2020, during the thick of the pandemic and stay-at-home consumption wave. This is particularly true following the launch of the iPhone 13 that some (including legendary Apple founder Steve Wozniak) see as merely a minor upgrade from the previous model.\nI see the concern here, especially considering that Apple will start to face unsurmountable iPhone comps in the holidays and post-holiday quarters – see graph below. But the same chart also shows that there seemed to exist quite a bit of pent-up demand over the many quarters that preceded the iPhone 12 launch. One possible justification for this shift in sales from fiscal 2019-2020 to 2021 is Apple's late entry into the 5G space. Consumers that are loyal to or just prefer the iOS device probably waited patiently to upgrade or switch, and then they did it all at once.\nSource: DM Martins Research, data from company reports\nThis may also help to explain, in part, why Apple's revenues in Greater China shot through the roof in the past 6 to 12 months. With the country's 5G infrastructure being further developed, owning a device that can handle the faster speeds probably makes most sense. Sales in the region had been lackluster to say the least since 2015, and dropped YOY by as much as 29% in fiscal Q4 of 2020. In the past three quarters, however, revenues climbed by at least 57% in each period.\nIn the end, over the last 12 quarters – i.e. roughly the useful life of the average iPhone – Apple's smartphone sales have risen by only 4.8% per year. Considering that ASP (average selling price) has likely increased during the period, this figure barely represents any meaningful growth in device shipments over a full cycle. Therefore, to think that demand for Apple's products will fall off a cliff next seems like a stretch, especially if one also considers chip innovation and design updates in Mac and iPad.\nKey risk #2: valuation\nThe other key risk of investing in Apple that is often brought up is valuation. Dan Niles, mentioned above, suggests that a next-year P/E of 26 times might not even be the biggest deal. The problem is that this multiple looks too rich against growth expectations that are modest.Analysts expect Apple's EPS to rise by only 4% per year through fiscal 2025. Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), valued at a similar earnings multiple, is expected to drive earnings 16% higher per year over a similar period.\nThat, in my view, is a more reasonable bearish argument. Per my estimates, Apple is by far the stock with the highest PEG ratio (P/E over long-term EPS growth) of 6.5 times. Amazon (AMZN) is a very distant second on this metric, at 2.3 times. But even here, I see a good argument to be made in favor of Apple.\nFirst, the company has been proving to be a powerful gatekeeper in the tech world. Here is one example: the first, most blatant sign that Apple's iOS privacy policy changes in the summer have been hurting social media companies and their financial statements led to the Nasdaqe rasing $120 billion in market value in a matter of minutes – most of which coming from internet stocks. Should one be expected to pay a premium for a stock in the face of such market control? I would say so.\nData by YCharts\nAlso, as the chart above depicts, Apple's forward-year P/E has certainly expanded relative to what it used to be a few years ago. But the multi-year move higher seems consistent with (1) a wave of increased demand for Apple's products and services, (2) better margins, (3) a drop in interest rates in 2020, and (4) a broad stock market that has become generally more expensive. Compared to how AAPL traded only about three months ago, P/E has in fact dipped about three turns and returned to early 2021 levels.\nKey risk #3: lack of positive catalysts\nThe next risk to investing in Apple that is often cited are short-term catalysts. The iPhone 13 was announced a few weeks ago, and so has the refreshed lineup of MacBook Pro devices equipped with the new M1 Pro and Max chips. Fiscal fourth quarter earnings is also in the rearview mirror. In fact, I think that the drop off in relevant Apple news in the fourth quarter correlates well with a stock that, seasonally, tends to perform worse in the November-to-January period. Bears may also argue that, with a few quarters of tough comps ahead, investors might have a hard time finding reasons to buy AAPL in the next few months.\nBut here, I believe that a bit of patience is warranted. First, the recent malaise in share price alone may be enough to attract new money from investors looking for a good deal on a high-quality stock. But more importantly, longer-term catalysts are likely to make more of a difference on share price and financial performance over the next, say, five years.\nI have previously talked in more detail about two catalysts that quickly come to mind. I doubt that much upside from initiatives like mixed reality and autonomous vehicle has been factored into analysts' financial models – and hence, properly priced into the stock. Because Apple is run by a conservative team of executives, I bet that both massive growth opportunities will be pursued if and when they are accretive to the company's earnings. They should, therefore, serve as the key catalysts driving long-term growth expectations (which is relevant for risk #1 above) and share price higher.\nIn summary\nApple may not be the same pound-the-table opportunity that I believed it to be in February 2021 or, better yet,in April 2018 – in both cases, I believed that shares had sold off for no good reason. But I continue to think that AAPL is a stock to own today through the next several years, especially now that the earnings multiple has started to rerate towards year-ago levels. Should Apple continue to head lower in the near term, the pullback (assuming no meaningful change in business fundamentals) would present an even better chance to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879561881,"gmtCreate":1636740952144,"gmtModify":1636740952271,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879561881","repostId":"1139324750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139324750","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636729318,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139324750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 23:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139324750","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading.Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson downgraded NVIDIA Corp t","content":"<p>Nvidia&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11eee16e740f662501f2bc3de305f18c\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Wedbush</b>&nbsp;analyst Matt Bryson downgraded&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA Corp</b>&nbsp;to Neutral from&nbsp;Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在早盘交易中下跌近2%。<b>韦德布什</b>分析师马特·布赖森下调评级<b>英伟达公司</b>从跑赢大盘调至中性，目标价从 220 美元上调至 300 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师引用了下调评级的估值，股价是他 2024 年数据的 55 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>他必须将市盈率提高到 67 倍才能证明跑赢大盘的合理性，这表明 Nvidia 的估值约为其 2024 年 TAM 的 7 倍，销售额约为 25 倍。相反，他必须在未来几年将销售增长假设翻一番（从约 20% 增加到约 40%），才能继续使用 40 倍的倍数来估值 Nvidia。</blockquote></p><p> However, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布赖森认为，数据中心和客户端产品的“前所未有的需求”将使英伟达在下周发布报告时再次超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在构建人工智能软件方面的持续工作将进一步巩固其人工智能领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Client GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.</p><p><blockquote>在稳定的游戏需求和加密挖掘要求的结合下，客户端GPU再次变得难以获得。</blockquote></p><p> New opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.</p><p><blockquote>新的机遇，特别是元宇宙及其图形密集型需求，已经开始实现投资的增加。</blockquote></p><p> He sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.</p><p><blockquote>他认为该股没有“负面催化剂”，英伟达的基本面也在改善，但下调了该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-12 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11eee16e740f662501f2bc3de305f18c\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Wedbush</b>&nbsp;analyst Matt Bryson downgraded&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA Corp</b>&nbsp;to Neutral from&nbsp;Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在早盘交易中下跌近2%。<b>韦德布什</b>分析师马特·布赖森下调评级<b>英伟达公司</b>从跑赢大盘调至中性，目标价从 220 美元上调至 300 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师引用了下调评级的估值，股价是他 2024 年数据的 55 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>他必须将市盈率提高到 67 倍才能证明跑赢大盘的合理性，这表明 Nvidia 的估值约为其 2024 年 TAM 的 7 倍，销售额约为 25 倍。相反，他必须在未来几年将销售增长假设翻一番（从约 20% 增加到约 40%），才能继续使用 40 倍的倍数来估值 Nvidia。</blockquote></p><p> However, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布赖森认为，数据中心和客户端产品的“前所未有的需求”将使英伟达在下周发布报告时再次超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在构建人工智能软件方面的持续工作将进一步巩固其人工智能领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Client GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.</p><p><blockquote>在稳定的游戏需求和加密挖掘要求的结合下，客户端GPU再次变得难以获得。</blockquote></p><p> New opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.</p><p><blockquote>新的机遇，特别是元宇宙及其图形密集型需求，已经开始实现投资的增加。</blockquote></p><p> He sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.</p><p><blockquote>他认为该股没有“负面催化剂”，英伟达的基本面也在改善，但下调了该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139324750","content_text":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading.Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson downgraded NVIDIA Corp to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.\nThe analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.\nHe would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.\nHowever, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.\nNvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.\nClient GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.\nNew opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.\nHe sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841939710,"gmtCreate":1635867032004,"gmtModify":1635867032131,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841939710","repostId":"1101901401","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101901401","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635866554,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101901401?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾2%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101901401","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 bill","content":"<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价上涨超过2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cba7404008cd93258b0ffcb352a81ce2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>随着下一个收益报告日期的临近，华尔街将寻求 NVDA 的积极消息。这预计是2021年11月17日。在该报告中，分析师预计 NVDA 每股收益为 1.11 美元。这将标志着同比增长 52.05%。我们最新的一致预期是季度收入为 68.3 亿美元，比去年同期增长 44.46%。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 全年 Zacks 一致预期每股收益为 4.14 美元，收入为 258.4 亿美元。这些结果分别代表+65.6%和+54.96%的同比变化。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能还会注意到分析师对 NVDA 的预测最近发生的变化。这些修订有助于显示近期业务趋势的不断变化的性质。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾2%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨逾2%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价上涨超过2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cba7404008cd93258b0ffcb352a81ce2\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.</p><p><blockquote>随着下一个收益报告日期的临近，华尔街将寻求 NVDA 的积极消息。这预计是2021年11月17日。在该报告中，分析师预计 NVDA 每股收益为 1.11 美元。这将标志着同比增长 52.05%。我们最新的一致预期是季度收入为 68.3 亿美元，比去年同期增长 44.46%。</blockquote></p><p> NVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA 全年 Zacks 一致预期每股收益为 4.14 美元，收入为 258.4 亿美元。这些结果分别代表+65.6%和+54.96%的同比变化。</blockquote></p><p> Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能还会注意到分析师对 NVDA 的预测最近发生的变化。这些修订有助于显示近期业务趋势的不断变化的性质。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101901401","content_text":"Nvidia shares rose more than 2% to a new high.\n\nWall Street will be looking for positivity from NVDA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 17, 2021. In that report, analysts expect NVDA to post earnings of $1.11 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 52.05%. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $6.83 billion, up 44.46% from the year-ago period.\nNVDA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $4.14 per share and revenue of $25.84 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of +65.6% and +54.96%, respectively.\nInvestors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for NVDA. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843990435,"gmtCreate":1635787965381,"gmtModify":1635787965512,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843990435","repostId":"2179221955","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840706071,"gmtCreate":1635682888420,"gmtModify":1635682888547,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840706071","repostId":"2179225281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840708141,"gmtCreate":1635682779765,"gmtModify":1635682779848,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Coming soon ?","listText":"Coming soon ?","text":"Coming soon ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840708141","repostId":"2179223073","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854846840,"gmtCreate":1635435834212,"gmtModify":1635435868914,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854846840","repostId":"1129950996","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129950996","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635434536,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129950996?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors decipher inverted long end of U.S. yield curve<blockquote>投资者解读美国收益率曲线倒挂长端</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129950996","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The yield on the U.S. 20-year bond on Thursday rose slightly above the ","content":"<p>NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The yield on the U.S. 20-year bond on Thursday rose slightly above the 30-year bond yield for the first time, according to traders, a move that garners attention because of investor sensitivity to inverted yield curves that can be a harbinger of recession.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约10月28日 - 据交易员称，美国20年期国债收益率周四首次略高于30年期国债收益率，此举引起关注，因为投资者对收益率曲线倒挂的敏感性可能是经济衰退的先兆。</blockquote></p><p> At 1052 EDT (1452 GMT) the 20S/30S spread was -0.27 basis point, having ended Wednesday at 1.24 bp. The yield on the 20-year was last at 1.9700% and 30-year at 1.9693%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间 1052（格林尼治标准时间 1452），20 秒/30 秒利差为 -0.27 个基点，周三收于 1.24 个基点。20年期收益率为1.9700%，30年期收益率为1.9693%。</blockquote></p><p> SUBADRA RAJAPPA, HEAD OF U.S. RATES STRATEGY, SOCIETE GENERALE, NEW YORK</p><p><blockquote>SUBADRA RAJAPPA，法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管，纽约</blockquote></p><p> “It’s really hard to read into the price action just from today. But broadly speaking, if there is a flight to quality or a rally, then in the back end (of the yield curve), the 30-year is going to be much more liquid than the 20-year. That’s kind of the liquidity premium that’s driving some of this inversion, if you will, between the 20-year and 30-year part of the curve.”</p><p><blockquote>“从今天开始，很难解读价格走势。但从广义上讲，如果出现了质量下降或反弹，那么在（收益率曲线的）后端，30 年期国债的流动性将比 20 年期国债高得多。这种流动性溢价推动了曲线 20 年期和 30 年期部分之间的倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p> DAN BELTON, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, BMO CAPITAL, CHICAGO</p><p><blockquote>DAN BELTON，固定收益策略师，BMO CAPITAL，芝加哥</blockquote></p><p> “I would not take the 20/30-year yield inversion as a recession signal. The move has a strong technical component given that it is entirely far out the yield curve. Further, no other benchmark rates have inverted.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不会将 20/30 年期国债收益率倒挂视为经济衰退的信号。鉴于这一举动完全超出了收益率曲线，因此具有很强的技术成分。此外，没有其他基准利率倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p> “On the other hand, it does broadly reflect the flatter yield curve to which the market has been pricing. This is due to expectations for swifter Fed action to choke off inflation. The market has priced a steeper rate hike path which has cause the entire yield curve to flatten, although not invert.”</p><p><blockquote>“另一方面，这确实大体上反映了市场一直在消化的收益率曲线趋于平缓。这是因为市场预期美联储将采取更迅速的行动来抑制通胀。市场已经消化了更陡峭的加息路径，这导致整个收益率曲线趋于平缓，尽管没有倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors decipher inverted long end of U.S. yield curve<blockquote>投资者解读美国收益率曲线倒挂长端</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors decipher inverted long end of U.S. yield curve<blockquote>投资者解读美国收益率曲线倒挂长端</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-28 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The yield on the U.S. 20-year bond on Thursday rose slightly above the 30-year bond yield for the first time, according to traders, a move that garners attention because of investor sensitivity to inverted yield curves that can be a harbinger of recession.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约10月28日 - 据交易员称，美国20年期国债收益率周四首次略高于30年期国债收益率，此举引起关注，因为投资者对收益率曲线倒挂的敏感性可能是经济衰退的先兆。</blockquote></p><p> At 1052 EDT (1452 GMT) the 20S/30S spread was -0.27 basis point, having ended Wednesday at 1.24 bp. The yield on the 20-year was last at 1.9700% and 30-year at 1.9693%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间 1052（格林尼治标准时间 1452），20 秒/30 秒利差为 -0.27 个基点，周三收于 1.24 个基点。20年期收益率为1.9700%，30年期收益率为1.9693%。</blockquote></p><p> SUBADRA RAJAPPA, HEAD OF U.S. RATES STRATEGY, SOCIETE GENERALE, NEW YORK</p><p><blockquote>SUBADRA RAJAPPA，法国兴业银行美国利率策略主管，纽约</blockquote></p><p> “It’s really hard to read into the price action just from today. But broadly speaking, if there is a flight to quality or a rally, then in the back end (of the yield curve), the 30-year is going to be much more liquid than the 20-year. That’s kind of the liquidity premium that’s driving some of this inversion, if you will, between the 20-year and 30-year part of the curve.”</p><p><blockquote>“从今天开始，很难解读价格走势。但从广义上讲，如果出现了质量下降或反弹，那么在（收益率曲线的）后端，30 年期国债的流动性将比 20 年期国债高得多。这种流动性溢价推动了曲线 20 年期和 30 年期部分之间的倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p> DAN BELTON, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, BMO CAPITAL, CHICAGO</p><p><blockquote>DAN BELTON，固定收益策略师，BMO CAPITAL，芝加哥</blockquote></p><p> “I would not take the 20/30-year yield inversion as a recession signal. The move has a strong technical component given that it is entirely far out the yield curve. Further, no other benchmark rates have inverted.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不会将 20/30 年期国债收益率倒挂视为经济衰退的信号。鉴于这一举动完全超出了收益率曲线，因此具有很强的技术成分。此外，没有其他基准利率倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p> “On the other hand, it does broadly reflect the flatter yield curve to which the market has been pricing. This is due to expectations for swifter Fed action to choke off inflation. The market has priced a steeper rate hike path which has cause the entire yield curve to flatten, although not invert.”</p><p><blockquote>“另一方面，这确实大体上反映了市场一直在消化的收益率曲线趋于平缓。这是因为市场预期美联储将采取更迅速的行动来抑制通胀。市场已经消化了更陡峭的加息路径，这导致整个收益率曲线趋于平缓，尽管没有倒挂。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/quotes-investors-decipher-inverted-long-end-of-u-s-yield-curve-idUSL1N2RO21K\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/quotes-investors-decipher-inverted-long-end-of-u-s-yield-curve-idUSL1N2RO21K","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129950996","content_text":"NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - The yield on the U.S. 20-year bond on Thursday rose slightly above the 30-year bond yield for the first time, according to traders, a move that garners attention because of investor sensitivity to inverted yield curves that can be a harbinger of recession.\nAt 1052 EDT (1452 GMT) the 20S/30S spread was -0.27 basis point, having ended Wednesday at 1.24 bp. The yield on the 20-year was last at 1.9700% and 30-year at 1.9693%.\nSUBADRA RAJAPPA, HEAD OF U.S. RATES STRATEGY, SOCIETE GENERALE, NEW YORK\n“It’s really hard to read into the price action just from today. But broadly speaking, if there is a flight to quality or a rally, then in the back end (of the yield curve), the 30-year is going to be much more liquid than the 20-year. That’s kind of the liquidity premium that’s driving some of this inversion, if you will, between the 20-year and 30-year part of the curve.”\nDAN BELTON, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, BMO CAPITAL, CHICAGO\n“I would not take the 20/30-year yield inversion as a recession signal. The move has a strong technical component given that it is entirely far out the yield curve. Further, no other benchmark rates have inverted.”\n“On the other hand, it does broadly reflect the flatter yield curve to which the market has been pricing. This is due to expectations for swifter Fed action to choke off inflation. The market has priced a steeper rate hike path which has cause the entire yield curve to flatten, although not invert.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854841821,"gmtCreate":1635435708199,"gmtModify":1635435839862,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>good dtock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>good dtock","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$good 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?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da675ae890461294c7e10b69281fd00e","width":"1080","height":"2845"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821715340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821712718,"gmtCreate":1633789260991,"gmtModify":1633789261080,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821712718","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821084977,"gmtCreate":1633674883246,"gmtModify":1633675073324,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just delaying the problem.","listText":"Just delaying the problem.","text":"Just delaying the problem.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821084977","repostId":"1167430707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823957187,"gmtCreate":1633574605984,"gmtModify":1633574606330,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>Good stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>Good stock","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$Good stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d81c4111fac6383fbed9fef8d399e13","width":"1080","height":"2528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823957187","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823954420,"gmtCreate":1633574519415,"gmtModify":1633574519752,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823954420","repostId":"2173091029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":821712718,"gmtCreate":1633789260991,"gmtModify":1633789261080,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plse","listText":"Like plse","text":"Like plse","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821712718","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869139044,"gmtCreate":1632265785588,"gmtModify":1632801711056,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869139044","repostId":"1154232593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154232593","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632236324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154232593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 22:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow erases a 343-point rebound and turns red<blockquote>道琼斯指数抹去 343 点反弹并转红</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154232593","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 21) After yesterday afternoon's surge higher, futures markets overnight extended the momentum,","content":"<p>(Sept 21)&nbsp;After yesterday afternoon's surge higher, futures markets overnight extended the momentum, lifting US markets up over 1% at their peak around the European open (remember, much of Asian liquidity is on holiday still).</p><p><blockquote>（9月21日）在昨天下午飙升后，期货市场隔夜延续了这一势头，推动美国市场在欧洲开盘前后达到峰值时上涨了1%以上（请记住，亚洲的大部分流动性仍在度假）。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, things have gone downhill and the selling pressure since the US opened has sent Small Caps, S&amp;P, Dow, and Nasdaq into the red for the day...</p><p><blockquote>自那以后，事情开始走下坡路，自美国开盘以来的抛售压力导致小盘股、标准普尔、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数全天下跌……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/098e0b3b1c0255545ee40a5e5ac19c60\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow erases a 343-point rebound and turns red<blockquote>道琼斯指数抹去 343 点反弹并转红</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow erases a 343-point rebound and turns red<blockquote>道琼斯指数抹去 343 点反弹并转红</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-21 22:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 21)&nbsp;After yesterday afternoon's surge higher, futures markets overnight extended the momentum, lifting US markets up over 1% at their peak around the European open (remember, much of Asian liquidity is on holiday still).</p><p><blockquote>（9月21日）在昨天下午飙升后，期货市场隔夜延续了这一势头，推动美国市场在欧洲开盘前后达到峰值时上涨了1%以上（请记住，亚洲的大部分流动性仍在度假）。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, things have gone downhill and the selling pressure since the US opened has sent Small Caps, S&amp;P, Dow, and Nasdaq into the red for the day...</p><p><blockquote>自那以后，事情开始走下坡路，自美国开盘以来的抛售压力导致小盘股、标准普尔、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数全天下跌……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/098e0b3b1c0255545ee40a5e5ac19c60\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154232593","content_text":"(Sept 21) After yesterday afternoon's surge higher, futures markets overnight extended the momentum, lifting US markets up over 1% at their peak around the European open (remember, much of Asian liquidity is on holiday still).\nSince then, things have gone downhill and the selling pressure since the US opened has sent Small Caps, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq into the red for the day...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861576755,"gmtCreate":1632528303977,"gmtModify":1632712346349,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861576755","repostId":"2170619494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879561881,"gmtCreate":1636740952144,"gmtModify":1636740952271,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879561881","repostId":"1139324750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139324750","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636729318,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1139324750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 23:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139324750","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading.Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson downgraded NVIDIA Corp t","content":"<p>Nvidia&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11eee16e740f662501f2bc3de305f18c\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Wedbush</b>&nbsp;analyst Matt Bryson downgraded&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA Corp</b>&nbsp;to Neutral from&nbsp;Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在早盘交易中下跌近2%。<b>韦德布什</b>分析师马特·布赖森下调评级<b>英伟达公司</b>从跑赢大盘调至中性，目标价从 220 美元上调至 300 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师引用了下调评级的估值，股价是他 2024 年数据的 55 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>他必须将市盈率提高到 67 倍才能证明跑赢大盘的合理性，这表明 Nvidia 的估值约为其 2024 年 TAM 的 7 倍，销售额约为 25 倍。相反，他必须在未来几年将销售增长假设翻一番（从约 20% 增加到约 40%），才能继续使用 40 倍的倍数来估值 Nvidia。</blockquote></p><p> However, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布赖森认为，数据中心和客户端产品的“前所未有的需求”将使英伟达在下周发布报告时再次超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在构建人工智能软件方面的持续工作将进一步巩固其人工智能领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Client GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.</p><p><blockquote>在稳定的游戏需求和加密挖掘要求的结合下，客户端GPU再次变得难以获得。</blockquote></p><p> New opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.</p><p><blockquote>新的机遇，特别是元宇宙及其图形密集型需求，已经开始实现投资的增加。</blockquote></p><p> He sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.</p><p><blockquote>他认为该股没有“负面催化剂”，英伟达的基本面也在改善，但下调了该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading<blockquote>英伟达股价早盘下跌近 2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-12 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;morning&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11eee16e740f662501f2bc3de305f18c\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Wedbush</b>&nbsp;analyst Matt Bryson downgraded&nbsp;<b>NVIDIA Corp</b>&nbsp;to Neutral from&nbsp;Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达股价在早盘交易中下跌近2%。<b>韦德布什</b>分析师马特·布赖森下调评级<b>英伟达公司</b>从跑赢大盘调至中性，目标价从 220 美元上调至 300 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师引用了下调评级的估值，股价是他 2024 年数据的 55 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>他必须将市盈率提高到 67 倍才能证明跑赢大盘的合理性，这表明 Nvidia 的估值约为其 2024 年 TAM 的 7 倍，销售额约为 25 倍。相反，他必须在未来几年将销售增长假设翻一番（从约 20% 增加到约 40%），才能继续使用 40 倍的倍数来估值 Nvidia。</blockquote></p><p> However, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.</p><p><blockquote>然而，布赖森认为，数据中心和客户端产品的“前所未有的需求”将使英伟达在下周发布报告时再次超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达在构建人工智能软件方面的持续工作将进一步巩固其人工智能领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> Client GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.</p><p><blockquote>在稳定的游戏需求和加密挖掘要求的结合下，客户端GPU再次变得难以获得。</blockquote></p><p> New opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.</p><p><blockquote>新的机遇，特别是元宇宙及其图形密集型需求，已经开始实现投资的增加。</blockquote></p><p> He sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.</p><p><blockquote>他认为该股没有“负面催化剂”，英伟达的基本面也在改善，但下调了该股的估值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139324750","content_text":"Nvidia shares fell nearly 2% in morning trading.Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson downgraded NVIDIA Corp to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $300, up from $220.\nThe analyst cites valuation for the downgrade, with the shares trading at 55 times his 2024 numbers.\nHe would have to lift the multiple to 67x to justify Outperform, suggesting Nvidia valued at ~7X its stated 2024 TAM and ~25X sales. Conversely, he would have to double his sales growth assumptions (from ~20% to ~40%) over the next couple of years to continue to use a 40X multiple to value Nvidia.\nHowever, Bryson believes the combination of \"unprecedented demand\" for both data center and client offerings will allow Nvidia to exceed expectations again next week when its reports.\nNvidia's continued work in building out its AI software will further solidify its AI leadership.\nClient GPUs have again become difficult to source, helped by a combination of solid gaming demand and crypto mining requirements.\nNew opportunities, particularly the Metaverse and its graphics-intensive requirements, have started to realize the increased investment.\nHe sees no \"negative catalyst\" for the stock and improving fundamentals for Nvidia but downgrades the shares on valuation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886743638,"gmtCreate":1631627968024,"gmtModify":1631884838411,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886743638","repostId":"1155175288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155175288","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631627144,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155175288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 21:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155175288","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks rose in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 0.7% and 2%.Whi","content":"<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 0.7% and 2%.While&nbsp;Lucid Group fell nearly 4%&nbsp;as&nbsp;an equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 0.7% 至 2%。而 Lucid Group 则下跌近 4%，因为摩根士丹利的一位股票研究分析师在跑输大盘上对该公司进行了报道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9a72b93885e07dad67e2dc86b0156a\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks rose in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-14 21:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks rose in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 0.7% and 2%.While&nbsp;Lucid Group fell nearly 4%&nbsp;as&nbsp;an equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中上涨。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车上涨 0.7% 至 2%。而 Lucid Group 则下跌近 4%，因为摩根士丹利的一位股票研究分析师在跑输大盘上对该公司进行了报道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df9a72b93885e07dad67e2dc86b0156a\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155175288","content_text":"EV stocks rose in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 0.7% and 2%.While Lucid Group fell nearly 4% as an equity research analyst at Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of the company at underweight.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818950353,"gmtCreate":1630372002172,"gmtModify":1704959241652,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818950353","repostId":"1170694959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898373656,"gmtCreate":1628475671175,"gmtModify":1631884838474,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Like please","listText":"&nbsp;Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898373656","repostId":"1136322726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808432921,"gmtCreate":1627605361463,"gmtModify":1631884838488,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Next growth engine is space travel. Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Next growth engine is space travel. Like please&nbsp;","text":"Next growth engine is space travel. Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808432921","repostId":"1105519179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":873837458,"gmtCreate":1636911856632,"gmtModify":1636911856759,"author":{"id":"3575593817551674","authorId":"3575593817551674","name":"Lucky03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/759e5ab6a4a94b481569511ac2bfe116","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575593817551674","authorIdStr":"3575593817551674"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873837458","repostId":"1159096163","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159096163","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636851053,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159096163?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159096163","media":"Barrons","summary":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce","content":"<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie &amp; Fitch 的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie's（股票代码：ANF）曾经是商场的主打产品，凭借鲜明、性感的广告和黑暗、充满香水的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在 2017 年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的持续下降给该品牌的未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的购物中心和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎又要夺走另一个受害者了。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但是在去葬礼的路上发生了一件令人惊讶的事情：阿伯克龙比享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨 (Fran Horowitz) 的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调其 Hollister 品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>在截至 7 月 31 日的第二财季中，该公司的收入同比增长了 24%，比大流行前的水平增长了 3%。随着购物者将现金涌回商店，其股价今年上涨了 120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨在接受采访时说：”品牌认知是一件很难扭转的事情，重建消费者的信任需要时间。<i>巴伦</i>. “因此，在 2021 年，我们很高兴地说，我们显然看到了所有这些辛勤工作的奇妙成果”。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅从深渊中挣脱出来，还利用大流行病带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌，销售额飙升，股价上涨，这得益于强劲的市场和消费者争先恐后地花掉大流行储蓄。许多大型商场零售商的股价都飙升，包括梅西百货（M）、诺德斯特龙（JWN）、著名鞋类母公司 Caleres（加州）和 Signet Jewelers（SIG），这些公司在过去 12 个月中都上涨了至少 100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会（National Retail Federation）的数据，消费者可支出 8510 亿美元，比去年创纪录的 7770 亿美元增长了 9.5%，是过去五年平均增长率 4.4% 的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售恢复正常之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意想不到的复兴，再次印证了不少品牌对实体店力量的信心。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们仍在继续大力押注实体未来。随着对实体店的投资继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题显而易见。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌入网上。亚马逊 (AMZN) 和沃尔玛 (WMT) 等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 零售分析师 Mari Shor 说：”投资者的情绪--尤其是短期对冲基金类型的投资者--对该集团的情绪刚刚变得非常负面。“我只是认为，投资者并没有真正给公司或消费者带来怀疑的好处”。</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔说，投资者的疑虑源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存下来。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会来关闭表现不佳的门店，并专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上变得更好，并将销售策略转变为随时随地瞄准消费者，无论是在线、移动还是店内。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司希望在连接数字和店内运营的同时推动增长的一个例子是，Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。根据全国零售联合会的估计，这个假日季在线和其他非实体店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“Global X 负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”我们认为，大流行病不仅加速了电子商务在全球的普及，还扩大了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在其数字战略上投入了数亿美元，强调从数字体验到店内体验的平稳过渡，并采取了改进公司网站、实行店内退货和网上购物提货等举措。霍洛维茨说，大流行病的到来促使 Abercrombie 关闭了全球 130 家门店和 50% 的品牌旗舰店，使过去 10 年关闭的门店总数达到约 500 家，同时战略性地开设了几家重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”商店固然重要，但必须有合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济性。“如果你把它和数字技术结合在一起，那就等于神奇了”。</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B. Riley Securities 分析师苏珊·安德森 (Susan Anderson) 表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效方式，而且还可以作为在线取货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，甚至像Warby Parker（WRBY）这样的在线零售商也扩大了他们的实体存在，以适应购物者的偏好。“安德森说：”消费者希望随时随地购物。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。购物中心和实体店在精通数字的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>根据BHDP今年早些时候委托一家以零售为专长的设计公司对1000名购物者进行的调查，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁的购物者也回到了商场，试穿产品，使用店内促销，并进行退货。德勤美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯 (Rod Sides) 表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人口统计的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间战略的转变使许多零售商在今年重新开放购物中心和市中心时处于更有利的地位，购物者渴望打开他们的钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者意外地变得兴奋起来。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用的下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤（Deloitte）的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假日季比去年多花费 15%，平均每户花费 2624 美元，这在很大程度上推动了假日季的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>“穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）说：”你有很多现金，而且有相当数量的需求被压抑。</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9 月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至 6250 亿美元，比 10 月份增长 0.7%，同比增长 13.9%。仅零售额就比 8 月份增长了 0.8%。“花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）说：”我们原本预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官马修·谢伊 (Matthew Shay) 在 10 月份的媒体吹风会上表示，零售商在进入假日季时比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测本季美国零售额将增长 7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品行业将出现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商 Burberry Group (BRBY.UK) 上周表示，2022 财年上半年的可比销售额增长了 37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 公布的第一财季收益好于预期，上调了 2022 年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩说：“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地承受了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表”。Wolfe Research 看好 Nordstrom 和 Tapestry 等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“几乎所有美国消费者支出的主要驱动因素都青睐高端市场”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，越来越多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai 商场交通统计数据显示，10 月份室内商场的客流量比 2019 年增长了 3%，室外商场的客流量增长了 5%，这也是商场商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团（SPG）的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>“华盛顿地区泰森斯角中心（Tysons Corner Center）高级营销经理林赛-佩塔克（Lindsay Petak）说：”随着越来越多的人全面接种疫苗，再加上由于供应链问题，许多人在即将到来的假期提前购物，自 7 月以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。该购物中心由 Macerich (MAC) 所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的库存上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金（XRT）上涨了85%，而标普500上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品 ETF (RCD) 今年的表现优于标普500 5 个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>“NRF 的 Shay 说：”我们已经看到，一旦经济重新开放，百货商店、服装和非必需品零售商就会真正反弹。“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店一直是节日期间的热门目的地......今年，百货商店仍然是人们购物的首选场所”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与网上商店有所不同，但它们会一直存在下去。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴是否具有长期可持续性尚未定论。零售商在远离常态的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更加具有投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师珍妮-斯蒂奇特（Janine Stichter）说：”我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为现在整个行业有太多的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度将表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“霍洛维茨说：”供应链问题是真实存在的。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在第二季度财报看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，预计对销售的影响不大，运费通胀的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克说，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者提前开始购物--这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月可能会有所下降。“她说：”支出并不一定会减弱很多，只是几个月的分布情况有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter 表示，另一方面，低库存将赋予零售商更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修-福雷斯特（Matthew Forester）说，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“他说：”总体而言，美国经济显然正在放缓。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这也是很可能发生的事情。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他说，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出欣喜若狂。他说，虽然下降可能并不 “可怕”，但与现在的消费者支出水平相比，仍将有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿伯克龙比正在其实体店的帮助下度过逆风。该公司正计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单路由到商店，并与 Uber、Shipt 和 Postmates 合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司 American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 最近宣布收购 Quiet Logistics，这是一家在市中心附近运营自动化配送中心的运营商，就在几周前，AirTerra 专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨说：”我们将继续努力。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商继续前进，末日预言者可能不得不推迟预言零售世界末日。目前，人们的情绪很明确：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又凉了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShoppers Are Heading to Malls Again. These Stocks Are Good Bets.<blockquote>购物者再次前往购物中心。这些股票是不错的选择。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for&nbsp;Abercrombie &amp; Fitch&nbsp;seemed dire.</p><p><blockquote>当疫情袭击美国经济时，Abercrombie &amp; Fitch 的前景似乎很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Once a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie's（股票代码：ANF）曾经是商场的主打产品，凭借鲜明、性感的广告和黑暗、充满香水的商店俘获了青少年的心和钱包，但其股价在 2017 年创下新低。购物者对该品牌的厌恶和商场客流量的持续下降给该品牌的未来蒙上了阴影。然后，在2020年3月，冠状病毒开始关闭全国各地的购物中心和商店。</blockquote></p><p> The retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.</p><p><blockquote>零售业的末日似乎又要夺走另一个受害者了。</blockquote></p><p> But something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.</p><p><blockquote>但是在去葬礼的路上发生了一件令人惊讶的事情：阿伯克龙比享受了自2000年代全盛时期以来最好的一年。在首席执行官弗兰·霍洛维茨 (Fran Horowitz) 的领导下，该公司进行了品牌重塑，发布了更具包容性的信息，并将重点转向年轻专业人士，同时针对青少年微调其 Hollister 品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.</p><p><blockquote>在截至 7 月 31 日的第二财季中，该公司的收入同比增长了 24%，比大流行前的水平增长了 3%。随着购物者将现金涌回商店，其股价今年上涨了 120%。</blockquote></p><p> “Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with <i>Barron’s</i>. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨在接受采访时说：”品牌认知是一件很难扭转的事情，重建消费者的信任需要时间。<i>巴伦</i>. “因此，在 2021 年，我们很高兴地说，我们显然看到了所有这些辛勤工作的奇妙成果”。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 并不是唯一一个进入新增长期的零售品牌。在过去的一年里，许多美国零售商不仅从深渊中挣脱出来，还利用大流行病带来的宏观经济变化，推动自己进入了意想不到的复兴。</blockquote></p><p> Brands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including&nbsp;Macy’s&nbsp;(M),Nordstrom&nbsp;(JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres&nbsp;(CAL), and&nbsp;Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>成功将实体业务与数字战略相结合的品牌，销售额飙升，股价上涨，这得益于强劲的市场和消费者争先恐后地花掉大流行储蓄。许多大型商场零售商的股价都飙升，包括梅西百货（M）、诺德斯特龙（JWN）、著名鞋类母公司 Caleres（加州）和 Signet Jewelers（SIG），这些公司在过去 12 个月中都上涨了至少 100%。</blockquote></p><p> These companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司现在准备从可能创纪录的假期中获益。根据全国零售联合会（National Retail Federation）的数据，消费者可支出 8510 亿美元，比去年创纪录的 7770 亿美元增长了 9.5%，是过去五年平均增长率 4.4% 的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p> No one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道这场派对是否会持续下去，或者这些商店是否只是在捕捉未来可能发生的销售。在零售销售恢复正常之前，企业需要应对一系列供应链和通胀压力，这些压力可能会抑制假日销售。</blockquote></p><p> But the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.</p><p><blockquote>但意想不到的复兴，再次印证了不少品牌对实体店力量的信心。虽然他们仍在大力投资在线业务，但他们仍在继续大力押注实体未来。随着对实体店的投资继续，许多人曾经预期的实体零售商的消亡似乎不再那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57cd1db2ff23484eff85f5e6ad64d7c8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>富裕家庭计划在这个假期平均花费2624美元，比去年增加15%。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as&nbsp;Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN) and&nbsp;Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.</p><p><blockquote>大流行病对零售商来说并不理想，但它提供了一些独特的机会。问题显而易见。人们害怕亲自购物。购物者——甚至婴儿潮一代——以意想不到的数量涌入网上。亚马逊 (AMZN) 和沃尔玛 (WMT) 等零售巨头经历了有史以来最好的一年。</blockquote></p><p> “The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”</p><p><blockquote>“Columbia Threadneedle Investments 零售分析师 Mari Shor 说：”投资者的情绪--尤其是短期对冲基金类型的投资者--对该集团的情绪刚刚变得非常负面。“我只是认为，投资者并没有真正给公司或消费者带来怀疑的好处”。</blockquote></p><p> Shor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.</p><p><blockquote>肖尔说，投资者的疑虑源于这样一种观念，即传统零售商，无论是大流行前还是大流行后，都无法生存下来。</blockquote></p><p> But the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.</p><p><blockquote>但疫情给了零售商一个难得的机会来关闭表现不佳的门店，并专注于优秀的门店。许多零售商还专注于在网上变得更好，并将销售策略转变为随时随地瞄准消费者，无论是在线、移动还是店内。</blockquote></p><p> In one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司希望在连接数字和店内运营的同时推动增长的一个例子是，Saks Fifth Avenue 的母公司剥离了其电子商务部门，该部门目前预计将上市，目标估值为 60 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Such approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，这种方法至关重要。根据全国零售联合会的估计，这个假日季在线和其他非实体店销售额预计将增长11%至15%，可能达到2260亿美元的高位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.</p><p><blockquote>“Global X 负责电子商务的研究分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”我们认为，大流行病不仅加速了电子商务在全球的普及，还扩大了市场。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在其数字战略上投入了数亿美元，强调从数字体验到店内体验的平稳过渡，并采取了改进公司网站、实行店内退货和网上购物提货等举措。霍洛维茨说，大流行病的到来促使 Abercrombie 关闭了全球 130 家门店和 50% 的品牌旗舰店，使过去 10 年关闭的门店总数达到约 500 家，同时战略性地开设了几家重要的新店。</blockquote></p><p> “Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”商店固然重要，但必须有合适的规模、合适的位置和合适的经济性。“如果你把它和数字技术结合在一起，那就等于神奇了”。</blockquote></p><p> Not only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.</p><p><blockquote>B. Riley Securities 分析师苏珊·安德森 (Susan Anderson) 表示，实体店不仅是吸引亲自购物者的经济高效方式，而且还可以作为在线取货和退货以及本地运输的重要配送中心。近年来，甚至像Warby Parker（WRBY）这样的在线零售商也扩大了他们的实体存在，以适应购物者的偏好。“安德森说：”消费者希望随时随地购物。</blockquote></p><p> That behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.</p><p><blockquote>这种行为会以意想不到的方式演变。购物中心和实体店在精通数字的青少年和年轻人中越来越受欢迎。</blockquote></p><p> According to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.</p><p><blockquote>根据BHDP今年早些时候委托一家以零售为专长的设计公司对1000名购物者进行的调查，55%的14至17岁青少年表示他们现在在室内购物中心购物，90%的人计划明年去购物中心。接受调查的18至24岁的购物者也回到了商场，试穿产品，使用店内促销，并进行退货。德勤美国零售和分销副主席罗德·赛德斯 (Rod Sides) 表示，这种转变导致零售商放弃了对特定人口统计的旧观点和假设。</blockquote></p><p> The shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.</p><p><blockquote>疫情期间战略的转变使许多零售商在今年重新开放购物中心和市中心时处于更有利的地位，购物者渴望打开他们的钱包。</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，一些消费者意外地变得兴奋起来。他们获得了刺激付款，从旅行费用的下降中节省下来，并看到市场飙升。如今，所有收入水平的消费者储蓄都处于或接近创纪录水平。德勤（Deloitte）的一项年度研究发现，富裕家庭计划在这个假日季比去年多花费 15%，平均每户花费 2624 美元，这在很大程度上推动了假日季的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.</p><p><blockquote>“穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）首席经济学家马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）说：”你有很多现金，而且有相当数量的需求被压抑。</blockquote></p><p> Retail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.</p><p><blockquote>根据美国人口普查局的数据，9 月份零售和食品服务销售额估计增至 6250 亿美元，比 10 月份增长 0.7%，同比增长 13.9%。仅零售额就比 8 月份增长了 0.8%。“花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡-克拉克（Veronica Clark）说：”我们原本预计9月份会出现一些回调，但我们没有。</blockquote></p><p> Retailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly&nbsp;Mastercard&nbsp;spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.</p><p><blockquote>全国零售联合会总裁兼首席执行官马修·谢伊 (Matthew Shay) 在 10 月份的媒体吹风会上表示，零售商在进入假日季时比十年前健康得多。万事达卡年度支出指数预测本季美国零售额将增长 7.4%，其中服装、百货商店、珠宝和奢侈品行业将出现显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> Luxury retailer&nbsp;Burberry Group&nbsp;(BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And&nbsp;Tapestry&nbsp;(TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.</p><p><blockquote>以格子呢面料和围巾闻名的奢侈品零售商 Burberry Group (BRBY.UK) 上周表示，2022 财年上半年的可比销售额增长了 37%，全价销售额正以两位数的速度增长。Coach 母公司 Tapestry (TPR) 公布的第一财季收益好于预期，上调了 2022 年销售额和利润预期。</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师看好零售业，考恩说：“许多奢侈品牌已经成功地承受了价格上涨，并可能受益于美国和国际上历史上强劲的消费者资产负债表”。Wolfe Research 看好 Nordstrom 和 Tapestry 等公司，分析师在一份报告中写道，“几乎所有美国消费者支出的主要驱动因素都青睐高端市场”。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，越来越多的美国人开始来到购物中心。Placer.ai 商场交通统计数据显示，10 月份室内商场的客流量比 2019 年增长了 3%，室外商场的客流量增长了 5%，这也是商场商店库存飙升的原因之一。拥有这些购物中心的西蒙地产集团（SPG）的股价在2021年上涨了约90%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.</p><p><blockquote>“华盛顿地区泰森斯角中心（Tysons Corner Center）高级营销经理林赛-佩塔克（Lindsay Petak）说：”随着越来越多的人全面接种疫苗，再加上由于供应链问题，许多人在即将到来的假期提前购物，自 7 月以来，我们看到客流量稳步上升。该购物中心由 Macerich (MAC) 所有，该公司的股价今年也几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> All of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Retail&nbsp;exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&amp;P 500 rose 33%. The&nbsp;Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都加剧了遭受重创的零售商多年来的库存上涨。过去一年，SPDR S&amp;P零售交易所交易基金（XRT）上涨了85%，而标普500上涨了33%。景顺标普500等权重非必需消费品 ETF (RCD) 今年的表现优于标普500 5 个百分点，这表明投资者仍然看好零售销售。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”</p><p><blockquote>“NRF 的 Shay 说：”我们已经看到，一旦经济重新开放，百货商店、服装和非必需品零售商就会真正反弹。“根据我们所做的消费者调查工作，百货商店一直是节日期间的热门目的地......今年，百货商店仍然是人们购物的首选场所”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍然对实体店所扮演的角色充满信心，实体店可能看起来与网上商店有所不同，但它们会一直存在下去。</blockquote></p><p> The verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.</p><p><blockquote>零售业复兴是否具有长期可持续性尚未定论。零售商在远离常态的宏观经济环境中运营，这使得任何猜测都更加具有投机性。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.</p><p><blockquote>“杰富瑞（Jefferies）分析师珍妮-斯蒂奇特（Janine Stichter）说：”我认为我们还没有正常的洞察力，因为现在整个行业有太多的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>企业正在努力应对持续的供应链担忧、通胀压力和持续的劳动力短缺，尽管所有迹象都表明假日季度将表现强劲，但这些问题可能会影响盈利。“霍洛维茨说：”供应链问题是真实存在的。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie 在第二季度财报看涨期权中表示，由于供应链限制，预计对销售的影响不大，运费通胀的影响更大。</blockquote></p><p> To ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团的克拉克说，为了缓解供应链压力，零售商鼓励消费者提前开始购物--这一趋势可能会扭曲年终销售数据。如果购物者提前购买礼物，与往年相比，11月和12月可能会有所下降。“她说：”支出并不一定会减弱很多，只是几个月的分布情况有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.</p><p><blockquote>Stichter 表示，另一方面，低库存将赋予零售商更高的定价权，有助于抵消供应链中断。波士顿学院经济学家萨沙·托米奇表示，虽然这对零售商有利，但可能会进一步推高价格。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约梅隆银行洛克伍德顾问公司首席投资官马修-福雷斯特（Matthew Forester）说，无论风险如何，强劲的业绩都不会永远持续下去。“他说：”总体而言，美国经济显然正在放缓。“明年我们将放缓。此外，随着我们恢复趋势增长，这也是很可能发生的事情。”</blockquote></p><p> The economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.</p><p><blockquote>他说，随着刺激措施的继续减少，经济最终将退出欣喜若狂。他说，虽然下降可能并不 “可怕”，但与现在的消费者支出水平相比，仍将有所下降。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.</p><p><blockquote>然而，阿伯克龙比正在其实体店的帮助下度过逆风。该公司正计划在商店放置更多库存，并将电子商务订单路由到商店，并与 Uber、Shipt 和 Postmates 合作提供当天送达服务。</blockquote></p><p> Other retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.</p><p><blockquote>其他零售商已经将供应链解决方案掌握在自己手中。特种服装公司 American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 最近宣布收购 Quiet Logistics，这是一家在市中心附近运营自动化配送中心的运营商，就在几周前，AirTerra 专注于中英里物流（将产品从仓库运送到零售店）。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.</p><p><blockquote>“霍洛维茨说：”我们将继续努力。</blockquote></p><p> As retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. The mall has become cool again.</p><p><blockquote>随着零售商继续前进，末日预言者可能不得不推迟预言零售世界末日。目前，人们的情绪很明确：消费者正在重新发现实体购物的乐趣。商场又凉了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SIG":"西格内特珠宝","CAL":"Caleres鞋业","RCD":"READY CAPITAL CORPORATION 9.00% SENIOR NOTES DUE 2029","BRBY.UK":"巴宝莉","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","ANF":"爱芬奇","TPR":"Tapestry Inc.","WMT":"沃尔玛","M":"梅西百货","BBRYF":"Burberry Group Plc","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/macys-abercrombie-simon-property-retail-stocks-51636674171?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159096163","content_text":"By the time the pandemic hit the U.S. economy, the outlook for Abercrombie & Fitch seemed dire.\nOnce a mall staple that captured the hearts and wallets of teenagers with stark, sexy advertising and dark, perfume-drenched stores, Abercrombie’s (ticker: ANF) stock price hit fresh lows in 2017. Shoppers’ distaste for the brand and a steady decrease in mall traffic clouded its future. Then, in March of 2020, the coronavirus began closing malls and stores across the country.\nThe retail apocalypse, it seemed, was about to claim another victim.\nBut something surprising happened on the way to the funeral: Abercrombie enjoyed one of its best years since its 2000s heyday. Under CEO Fran Horowitz, the company rebranded, putting out a more inclusive message and pivoting its focus toward young professionals while fine-tuning its Hollister brand for teenagers.\nRevenue increased 24% year over year in the company’s fiscal second quarter ended July 31, and 3% from prepandemic levels. Its stock is up 120% this year as shoppers flush with cash flock back to stores.\n“Perception of a brand is a hard thing to turn, and it takes time in order to build back trust with your consumer,” Horowitz says in an interview with Barron’s. “So, here we are happy to say in 2021 that we are seeing, obviously, the wonderful effects of all of that hard work.”\nAbercrombie isn’t the only retail brand that is coming into a new period of growth. Over the past year, many of America’s retailers have not only clawed their way out of the abyss, but have harnessed macroeconomic changes ushered in by the pandemic to propel themselves into an unexpected renaissance.\nBrands that successfully merged their bricks-and-mortar operations with digital strategies are seeing sales soar and stock prices rise, lifted by a strong market and consumers champing at the bit to spend their pandemic savings. The stock prices of many major mall-based retailers have soared, including Macy’s (M),Nordstrom (JWN), Famous Footwear parent Caleres (CAL), and Signet Jewelers (SIG), which all gained at least 100% in the past 12 months.\nThese companies are now poised to reap the benefits of a potentially record-setting holiday season. Consumers could spend $851 billion, a 9.5% increase from last year’s record $777 billion and more than twice the 4.4% average increase over the past five years, according to the National Retail Federation.\nNo one knows whether the party will last or whether these stores are simply capturing sales that would have happened in the future. Before retail sales normalize, companies need to navigate a host of supply-chain and inflationary pressures that could put a damper on holiday sales.\nBut the unexpected revival has reaffirmed the faith of many brands in the power of the physical stores. While still heavily investing in online operations, they are continuing to bet big on a bricks-and-mortar future. And as investments in physical stores continue, the demise of the bricks-and-mortar retailer that many once expected no longer seems so certain.\nWealthy households plan to spend an average $2,624 this holiday season, 15% more than last year.\nThe pandemic wasn’t exactly ideal for retailers, but it offered some unique opportunities. The problems were obvious. People were afraid to shop in person. Shoppers—even baby boomers—flocked online in unexpected numbers. Retail behemoths such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) saw their best year ever.\n“The investor sentiment—especially from short term, hedge fund type investors—had just turned very negative on the group,” Columbia Threadneedle Investments retail analyst Mari Shor says. “I just think that investors weren’t really giving the companies, or the consumers, the benefit of the doubt.”\nShor says the doubt among investors was rooted in the notion that traditional retailers, both prepandemic and postpandemic, wouldn’t make it out alive.\nBut the pandemic gave retailers the rare chance to close poorly performing locations and focus on great ones. Many retailers also focused on getting better online, and shifted their sales strategies to target consumers wherever and whenever they wanted to shop—whether online, mobile, or in-store.\nIn one example of a company looking to fuel growth while connecting digital and in-store operations, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue spun out its e-commerce arm, which is now expected to go public with a target valuation of $6 billion.\nSuch approaches proved critical. Online and other non-store sales are expected to increase between 11% and 15% this holiday season, potentially reaching a high of $226 billion, according to National Retail Federation estimates.\n“We’d like to think that the pandemic not only accelerated the adoption of e-commerce around the world but also expanded the market,” says Pedro Palandrani, a research analyst at Global X who covers e-commerce.\nAbercrombie invested hundreds of millions of dollars in its digital strategy, emphasizing smooth transitions from digital to in-store experiences with initiatives such as improving the company’s website and instituting in-store returns and pickups for online purchases. The arrival of the pandemic prompted Abercrombie to close 130 stores worldwide and 50% of the brand’s flagships, bringing total store closures in the past 10 years to about 500, while strategically opening a few key new stores, Horowitz says.\n“Stores matter, but they have to be the right size, the right location, and the right economics,” she says. “You put that together with the digital and it equals magic.”\nNot only are physical stores cost-effective ways to draw in-person shoppers, but they also can serve as crucial distribution centers for online pickups and returns, as well as local shipping, says B. Riley Securities analyst Susan Anderson. In recent years, even online retailers such as Warby Parker (WRBY) have expanded their physical presence to accommodate shopper preferences. “The consumer wants to shop when and where they want to,” Anderson says.\nThat behavior can evolve in unexpected ways. Malls and physical stores are growing in popularity among digitally savvy teenagers and young adults.\nAccording to a survey of 1,000 shoppers earlier this year commissioned by BHDP, a design firm that counts retail among its specialties, 55% of 14-to-17 year olds say they are now shopping at indoor malls, and 90% plan to head to a mall in the next year. The 18-to-24-year-old shoppers surveyed are also back at the mall, trying on products, using in-store promotions, and making returns. Such shifts have led retailers to ditch old views and assumptions about specific demographics, says Rod Sides, vice chairman of U.S. retail and distribution at Deloitte.\nThe shifts in strategy during the pandemic put many retailers in a better position for the reopening of malls and downtowns this year—and shoppers were eager to open their wallets.\nDuring the pandemic, some consumers became unexpectedly flush. They got stimulus payments, saved up from a decline in travel expenses, and saw the markets soar. Today, consumer savings at all income levels are at or near a record. Wealthy households are planning to spend 15% more than last year this holiday season, averaging $2,624 per household and driving much of the season’s growth, an annual Deloitte study found.\n“You got a lot of cash and there’s a fair amount of pent-up demand,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.\nRetail and food-services sales increased to an estimated $625 billion in September, up 0.7% from October and 13.9% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in retail alone rose 0.8% from August. “We were expecting that you’d see some pullback in September, and we didn’t,” says Citigroup economist Veronica Clark.\nRetailers are much healthier than they were a decade ago heading into the holiday season, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said in a media briefing in October. A yearly Mastercard spending index forecasts U.S. retail sales to increase 7.4% this season, with significant gains in apparel, department stores, jewelry, and luxury items.\nLuxury retailer Burberry Group (BRBY.UK), known for its tartan fabric and scarves, said this past week that comparable sales for its first half of fiscal 2022 rose 37%, and that full-price sales are growing at a double-digit rate. And Tapestry (TPR), the parent company of Coach, posted better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings, raising its outlook for 2022 sales and profits.\nSome analysts are bullish on the retail sector, with Cowen saying that “many of the luxury brands have successfully been able to take price increases and will likely benefit from the historically strong consumer balance sheets in the U.S. and internationally.” Wolfe Research favors Nordstrom and Tapestry, among others, with analysts writing in a note that “nearly all the major drivers of U.S. consumer spending favor the high end.”\nMeanwhile, more Americans started coming out to the mall. Placer.ai mall-traffic statistics show that foot traffic for indoor malls was up 3% in October compared with 2019 levels, and traffic for outdoor malls was up 5%—one of the reasons mall stores are seeing their stocks soar. Simon Property Group (SPG), which owns the malls themselves, saw its stock gain about 90% in 2021.\n“With the combination of more individuals becoming fully vaccinated, paired with many shopping early for the coming holiday season due to supply-chain concerns, we have seen a steady rise in foot traffic since July,” says Lindsay Petak, senior marketing manager for Tysons Corner Center in the Washington region. The mall is owned by Macerich (MAC), which also has seen its share price nearly double this year.\nAll of this added to a stock run-up for the ages for beaten-down retailers. Over the past year, the SPDR S&P Retail exchanged-trade fund (XRT) was up 85%, while the S&P 500 rose 33%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) has outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points this year, a sign that investors remain bullish on retail sales.\n“We’ve seen department stores and apparel and discretionary retailers really bounce back as soon as the economy reopened,” the NRF’s Shay says. “Department stores are always a popular destination for the holiday season, based on the consumer survey work we do....They continue to be at the top of the list of the places people shop this year.”\nAll that said, analysts and investors alike remain confident of the role physical stores play, which might look different from their online counterparts, but they’re here to stay.\nThe verdict on whether the retail renaissance is sustainable in the long term isn’t in yet. Retailers are operating in a macroeconomic environment far from the norm, making any guesses even more speculative.\n“I don’t think we have normal insight yet because there are just too many complexities throughout the business right now,” says Jefferies analyst Janine Stichter.\nCompanies are struggling to manage ongoing supply-chain concerns, inflationary pressures, and a persistent labor shortage, which are likely to bite into earnings despite all signs pointing to a strong holiday quarter. “The supply-chain issues, they’re real,” Horowitz says.\nAbercrombie is assuming a modest impact on sales due to supply-chain constraints, with even bigger impacts coming from freight inflation, the company said in its second-quarter earnings call.\nTo ease supply-chain pressures, retailers are encouraging consumers to start their shopping early—a trend that could skew end-of-year sales data, Citigroup’s Clark says. If shoppers pull their gift-buying forward, there could be a decline in November and December compared with previous years. “It’s not necessarily that spending is much weaker; it’s just that the distribution over months is different,” she says.\nOn the flip side, low inventories will give retailers higher pricing power that can help offset supply-chain disruptions, Stichter says. While beneficial to retailers, this could drive prices up even more, says Sasha Tomic, an economist at Boston College.\nWhatever the risks, strong performance won’t last forever, says Matthew Forester, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon’s Lockwood Advisors. “The U.S. economy, overall, is clearly slowing down,” he says. “And we’re going to slow down into the next year. Plus, as we get back to trend growth, that’s just what’s likely to happen.”\nThe economy will eventually exit its euphoria as stimulus continues to dwindle, he says. And while the comedown might not be “terrible,” he says, it will still be a decline from where consumer spending is now.\nAbercrombie, though, is powering through the headwinds with the help of its bricks-and-mortar stores. The company is planning to position more inventory in stores, and is routing e-commerce orders to stores as well as partnering with Uber, Shipt, and Postmates to offer same-day delivery.\nOther retailers have taken supply-chain solutions in their own hands. Specialty-apparel company American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) recently announced it was acquiring Quiet Logistics, an operator of automated distribution centers near city centers, just weeks after it bought AirTerra, which focuses on middle-mile logistics—the delivery of products from a warehouse to a retail store.\n“We’re going to just continue at it,” Horowitz says.\nAs retailers forge ahead, doomsayers might have to hold off on heralding a retail apocalypse. For now, the sentiment is clear: Consumers are rediscovering the joys of bricks-and-mortar shopping. 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