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2021-04-14

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2021-08-10

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2021-06-04

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Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-04-14

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2021-08-10

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Oil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote>

2021-04-14

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2021-06-03

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2021-06-03

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2021-06-03

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2021-06-03

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2021-04-28

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Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>

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],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896750522","repostId":"1122422928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122422928","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628577480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122422928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 14:38","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122422928","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery w","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——油价从三周低点上涨，投资者押注全球需求复苏将保持不变，尽管快速传播的德尔塔病毒变种导致许多地区收紧限制。</blockquote></p><p> Futures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>纽约期货在过去两个交易日下跌近4%后，升至每桶67美元以上。达美航空导致感染人数上升和行动限制，尤其是在中国，那里的原油精炼将缩减，航空旅行也大幅下滑。然而，预计全球需求将在年底前加速并收紧市场。</blockquote></p><p> Delta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空引发了对短期需求前景的担忧，并中断了油价的涨势，上半年油价上涨了50%以上。就在欧佩克+联盟向市场恢复更多在大流行期间停止的供应之际，这种复苏正在抑制燃料消耗。</blockquote></p><p> China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品研究机构ICIS-China的分析师Jean Zou表示，中国最大的炼油商中国石油化工股份有限公司（俗称中石化）本月将部分炼油厂的开工率比此前计划的水平下调5%至10%。该分析公司跟踪全国各地的运营、维护计划和加工利润。</blockquote></p><p> “China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人万达纳·哈里(Vandana Hari)表示：“中国的零疫情战略意味着限制可能会继续扩大和收紧，从而削弱石油消费。”“德尔塔病毒的爆发肯定会导致人们重新评估之前预期的全球需求复苏轨迹。”</blockquote></p><p> The oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.</p><p><blockquote>随着Covid-19病例的攀升，石油市场结构也有所减弱。布伦特原油的即期价差为每桶47美分，即近期合约比近期合约更贵。相比之下，7月底为92美分。</blockquote></p><p> The number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.</p><p><blockquote>根据航空专家OAG的数据，随着中国实施新的限制措施以遏制最新一波疫情，中国航空公司提供的座位数量出现了自疫情爆发初期以来的最大降幅。与此同时，在美国，病毒病例飙升至2月初以来的最高周水平。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署和石油输出国组织定于周四发布月度报告，该报告应表明他们认为达美航空对需求的威胁有多严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——油价从三周低点上涨，投资者押注全球需求复苏将保持不变，尽管快速传播的德尔塔病毒变种导致许多地区收紧限制。</blockquote></p><p> Futures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>纽约期货在过去两个交易日下跌近4%后，升至每桶67美元以上。达美航空导致感染人数上升和行动限制，尤其是在中国，那里的原油精炼将缩减，航空旅行也大幅下滑。然而，预计全球需求将在年底前加速并收紧市场。</blockquote></p><p> Delta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空引发了对短期需求前景的担忧，并中断了油价的涨势，上半年油价上涨了50%以上。就在欧佩克+联盟向市场恢复更多在大流行期间停止的供应之际，这种复苏正在抑制燃料消耗。</blockquote></p><p> China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品研究机构ICIS-China的分析师Jean Zou表示，中国最大的炼油商中国石油化工股份有限公司（俗称中石化）本月将部分炼油厂的开工率比此前计划的水平下调5%至10%。该分析公司跟踪全国各地的运营、维护计划和加工利润。</blockquote></p><p> “China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人万达纳·哈里(Vandana Hari)表示：“中国的零疫情战略意味着限制可能会继续扩大和收紧，从而削弱石油消费。”“德尔塔病毒的爆发肯定会导致人们重新评估之前预期的全球需求复苏轨迹。”</blockquote></p><p> The oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.</p><p><blockquote>随着Covid-19病例的攀升，石油市场结构也有所减弱。布伦特原油的即期价差为每桶47美分，即近期合约比近期合约更贵。相比之下，7月底为92美分。</blockquote></p><p> The number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.</p><p><blockquote>根据航空专家OAG的数据，随着中国实施新的限制措施以遏制最新一波疫情，中国航空公司提供的座位数量出现了自疫情爆发初期以来的最大降幅。与此同时，在美国，病毒病例飙升至2月初以来的最高周水平。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署和石油输出国组织定于周四发布月度报告，该报告应表明他们认为达美航空对需求的威胁有多严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-three-week-low-234647769.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-three-week-low-234647769.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122422928","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.\nFutures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.\nDelta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.\nChina Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.\n“China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”\nThe oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.\nThe number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.\nThe International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896721417,"gmtCreate":1628606400639,"gmtModify":1633745770046,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896721417","repostId":"2158477376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116646983,"gmtCreate":1622798953342,"gmtModify":1634097899317,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116646983","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118615078,"gmtCreate":1622730117694,"gmtModify":1634098632561,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118615078","repostId":"1101826394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118612697,"gmtCreate":1622730101419,"gmtModify":1634098632926,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118612697","repostId":"1101826394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118611038,"gmtCreate":1622730039724,"gmtModify":1634098634942,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118611038","repostId":"2140476423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118632511,"gmtCreate":1622729866633,"gmtModify":1634098638450,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118632511","repostId":"1143150601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100374719,"gmtCreate":1619585401731,"gmtModify":1634211539349,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100374719","repostId":"1157918353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157918353","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157918353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157918353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.Microsoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as c","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157918353","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMicrosoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.\nWindows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.\nAzure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.\n\nMicrosoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.\n\nHere’s how the company did:\n\nEarnings:$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\nRevenue:$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\n\nThe software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to gains in PC sales resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.\nThe company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader Amazon Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In the prior quarter Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.\nWith respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.\n\nMicrosoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.\nThe Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from 115 million in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.\nThe company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner estimated earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.\nThat benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.\nThe outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.\nThe PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.\nAt the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.\nThe operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.\nMicrosoft said in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also issued patches to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also closed the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.\nNotwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&P 500 over the same time period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344226108,"gmtCreate":1618411220304,"gmtModify":1634293116571,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344226108","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344228522,"gmtCreate":1618411201566,"gmtModify":1634293117049,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344228522","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344221941,"gmtCreate":1618411125283,"gmtModify":1634293117881,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344221941","repostId":"1151349667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":344221941,"gmtCreate":1618411125283,"gmtModify":1634293117881,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344221941","repostId":"1151349667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896721417,"gmtCreate":1628606400639,"gmtModify":1633745770046,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896721417","repostId":"2158477376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116646983,"gmtCreate":1622798953342,"gmtModify":1634097899317,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116646983","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344226108,"gmtCreate":1618411220304,"gmtModify":1634293116571,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344226108","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896750522,"gmtCreate":1628606631566,"gmtModify":1633745767749,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896750522","repostId":"1122422928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122422928","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628577480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122422928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 14:38","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Oil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122422928","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery w","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——油价从三周低点上涨，投资者押注全球需求复苏将保持不变，尽管快速传播的德尔塔病毒变种导致许多地区收紧限制。</blockquote></p><p> Futures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>纽约期货在过去两个交易日下跌近4%后，升至每桶67美元以上。达美航空导致感染人数上升和行动限制，尤其是在中国，那里的原油精炼将缩减，航空旅行也大幅下滑。然而，预计全球需求将在年底前加速并收紧市场。</blockquote></p><p> Delta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空引发了对短期需求前景的担忧，并中断了油价的涨势，上半年油价上涨了50%以上。就在欧佩克+联盟向市场恢复更多在大流行期间停止的供应之际，这种复苏正在抑制燃料消耗。</blockquote></p><p> China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品研究机构ICIS-China的分析师Jean Zou表示，中国最大的炼油商中国石油化工股份有限公司（俗称中石化）本月将部分炼油厂的开工率比此前计划的水平下调5%至10%。该分析公司跟踪全国各地的运营、维护计划和加工利润。</blockquote></p><p> “China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人万达纳·哈里(Vandana Hari)表示：“中国的零疫情战略意味着限制可能会继续扩大和收紧，从而削弱石油消费。”“德尔塔病毒的爆发肯定会导致人们重新评估之前预期的全球需求复苏轨迹。”</blockquote></p><p> The oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.</p><p><blockquote>随着Covid-19病例的攀升，石油市场结构也有所减弱。布伦特原油的即期价差为每桶47美分，即近期合约比近期合约更贵。相比之下，7月底为92美分。</blockquote></p><p> The number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.</p><p><blockquote>根据航空专家OAG的数据，随着中国实施新的限制措施以遏制最新一波疫情，中国航空公司提供的座位数量出现了自疫情爆发初期以来的最大降幅。与此同时，在美国，病毒病例飙升至2月初以来的最高周水平。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署和石油输出国组织定于周四发布月度报告，该报告应表明他们认为达美航空对需求的威胁有多严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Claws Back Losses After Selloff Despite Delta Demand Fears<blockquote>尽管达美需求担忧，油价在抛售后收复失地</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——油价从三周低点上涨，投资者押注全球需求复苏将保持不变，尽管快速传播的德尔塔病毒变种导致许多地区收紧限制。</blockquote></p><p> Futures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>纽约期货在过去两个交易日下跌近4%后，升至每桶67美元以上。达美航空导致感染人数上升和行动限制，尤其是在中国，那里的原油精炼将缩减，航空旅行也大幅下滑。然而，预计全球需求将在年底前加速并收紧市场。</blockquote></p><p> Delta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>达美航空引发了对短期需求前景的担忧，并中断了油价的涨势，上半年油价上涨了50%以上。就在欧佩克+联盟向市场恢复更多在大流行期间停止的供应之际，这种复苏正在抑制燃料消耗。</blockquote></p><p> China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品研究机构ICIS-China的分析师Jean Zou表示，中国最大的炼油商中国石油化工股份有限公司（俗称中石化）本月将部分炼油厂的开工率比此前计划的水平下调5%至10%。该分析公司跟踪全国各地的运营、维护计划和加工利润。</blockquote></p><p> “China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Vanda Insights创始人万达纳·哈里(Vandana Hari)表示：“中国的零疫情战略意味着限制可能会继续扩大和收紧，从而削弱石油消费。”“德尔塔病毒的爆发肯定会导致人们重新评估之前预期的全球需求复苏轨迹。”</blockquote></p><p> The oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.</p><p><blockquote>随着Covid-19病例的攀升，石油市场结构也有所减弱。布伦特原油的即期价差为每桶47美分，即近期合约比近期合约更贵。相比之下，7月底为92美分。</blockquote></p><p> The number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.</p><p><blockquote>根据航空专家OAG的数据，随着中国实施新的限制措施以遏制最新一波疫情，中国航空公司提供的座位数量出现了自疫情爆发初期以来的最大降幅。与此同时，在美国，病毒病例飙升至2月初以来的最高周水平。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署和石油输出国组织定于周四发布月度报告，该报告应表明他们认为达美航空对需求的威胁有多严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-three-week-low-234647769.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-climbs-three-week-low-234647769.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122422928","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil advanced from a three-week low as investors bet that the global demand recovery will remain intact despite the fast-spreading delta virus variant leading to tighter restrictions in many regions.\nFutures in New York rose above $67 a barrel after tumbling almost 4% over the past two sessions. Delta has led to rising infections and curbs on movement, most notably in China where crude refining is set to be scaled back and air travel has slumped. However, expectations are that global demand will accelerate and tighten the market through the end of the year.\nDelta has raised concerns about the short-term demand outlook and interrupted a rally in oil that saw prices advance more than 50% over the first half of the year. The resurgence is crimping fuel consumption just as the OPEC+ alliance returns more supply to the market that it halted during the pandemic.\nChina Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation’s biggest refiner that’s commonly known as Sinopec, is cutting run rates at some plants by 5% to 10% compared with previously planned levels this month, according to Jean Zou, an analyst at commodities researcher ICIS-China. The analytics firm tracks operations, maintenance plans and processing margins across the country.\n“China’s Covid Zero strategy means restrictions could continue to widen and tighten, denting oil consumption,” said Vandana Hari, the founder of consultant Vanda Insights. “Delta outbreaks are certainly cause for a revaluation of the earlier anticipated trajectory of the global demand recovery.”\nThe oil market structure has also weakened as Covid-19 cases climb. The prompt timespread for Brent was 47 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 92 cents at the end of July.\nThe number of seats being offered by China’s airlines dropped the most since early in the pandemic as the nation implemented fresh restrictions to contain the latest wave, based on data from aviation specialist OAG. Meanwhile in the U.S., virus cases surged to the highest weekly level since early February.\nThe International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to release monthly reports on Thursday, which should give an indication of how seriously they see the threat to demand from delta.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344228522,"gmtCreate":1618411201566,"gmtModify":1634293117049,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344228522","repostId":"2127454000","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118615078,"gmtCreate":1622730117694,"gmtModify":1634098632561,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118615078","repostId":"1101826394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118612697,"gmtCreate":1622730101419,"gmtModify":1634098632926,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118612697","repostId":"1101826394","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118611038,"gmtCreate":1622730039724,"gmtModify":1634098634942,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118611038","repostId":"2140476423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118632511,"gmtCreate":1622729866633,"gmtModify":1634098638450,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118632511","repostId":"1143150601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100374719,"gmtCreate":1619585401731,"gmtModify":1634211539349,"author":{"id":"3575629945584188","authorId":"3575629945584188","name":"RajaV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20786a1463560145b8b91408511f7b45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575629945584188","idStr":"3575629945584188"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100374719","repostId":"1157918353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157918353","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619566409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157918353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 07:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157918353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.Microsoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as c","content":"<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft sales grow on cloud strength, shares dip on heightened valuation<blockquote>微软销售额因云实力而增长，股价因估值上升而下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 07:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.</li>  <li>Windows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.</li>  <li>Azure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.</li> </ul> Microsoft&nbsp;shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的营收和利润以及收入指引超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>来自设备制造商的Windows收入增长高于该公司的预期。</li><li>Azure云收入增长与上一季度持平。</li></ul>软件制造商微软公布了强于分析师预期的第三财季盈利和季度收入指引后，该公司股价周二在盘后交易中下跌2.6%。随着云计算成为其业务的重要组成部分，该公司的营业利润率有所收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37e56904b785cd612b360cb4662adcab\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"833\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Here’s how the company did:</p><p><blockquote>该公司的做法如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Earnings:</b>$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li>  <li><b>Revenue:</b>$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.</li> </ul> The software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a&nbsp;statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to&nbsp;gains in PC sales&nbsp;resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>收益：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，调整后每股1.95美元，而分析师预期为每股1.78美元。</li><li><b>收入：</b>根据Refinitiv的数据，为417.1亿美元，而分析师预期为410.3亿美元。</li></ul>根据一份声明，这家软件和硬件制造商公布截至3月31日的季度年化收入增长19%。这是该公司自2018年以来最大的季度增幅，部分原因是去年冠状病毒导致的短缺导致PC销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> The company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In&nbsp;the prior quarter&nbsp;Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.</p><p><blockquote>根据CNBC对14份股票研究报告的评论，该公司表示，与市场领导者亚马逊网络服务竞争的Azure公共云增长了50%，快于分析师预期的46%增长。上一季度，Azure收入增长了50%。微软没有披露Azure的美元收入。</blockquote></p><p> With respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>微软首席财务官Amy Hood在与分析师举行的电话会议上表示，关于指引，微软预计第四财季营收为436亿至445亿美元。处于16%增长区间的中间，高于Refinitiv调查的分析师普遍预期的429.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04deaac8d015743ca14f06c8b77bd26e\" tg-width=\"1910\" tg-height=\"1549\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.</p><p><blockquote>微软智能云部门第三财季实现营收151.2亿美元。这一数字同比增长23%，高于FactSet 149.2亿美元的共识预期。智能云包含Azure、Windows Server、SQL Server、Visual Studio、GitHub和企业服务。</blockquote></p><p> The Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from&nbsp;115 million&nbsp;in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.</p><p><blockquote>包括Office、Dynamics和LinkedIn在内的生产力和业务流程部门贡献了135.5亿美元的收入，增长了15%，超过了FactSet预期的134.9亿美元。微软首席执行官Satya Nadella在看涨期权上表示，Teams聊天和通话应用程序的日活跃用户达到1.45亿，高于10月份的1.15亿。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner&nbsp;estimated&nbsp;earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的更多个人计算部门，包括Windows、游戏、设备和搜索，收入为130.4亿美元。这一数字增长了近19%，高于125.5亿美元的共识。技术研究公司Gartner本月早些时候估计，PC制造商本季度出货量接近7000万台，比去年同期增长32%，这是Gartner自2000年开始跟踪PC市场以来的最快增长。</blockquote></p><p> That benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.</p><p><blockquote>这有利于微软向个人电脑制造商销售Windows许可证，增长了10%。纳德拉表示，现在每月有超过13亿台活跃设备运行Windows 10操作系统。</blockquote></p><p> The outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.</p><p><blockquote>结果比微软自己预测的要好。一月份，胡德呼吁设备制造商的Windows许可收入保持在低个位数。</blockquote></p><p> The PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>胡德周二表示，个人电脑市场经历了“供应链中持续的重大限制”。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，微软广泛的商业云类别产品（包括Azure、Office 365生产力捆绑包的商业订阅、基于云的Dynamics 365企业应用程序和LinkedIn的商业部分）的毛利率从71%收窄至70%。对于希望看到微软能够继续让Azure盈利更高的投资者来说，这个数字很重要。</blockquote></p><p> The operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.</p><p><blockquote>包括Azure在内的智能云部门的营业利润率也从约44.5%收窄至42.5%。微软的整体营业利润率为40.9%，低于41.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft&nbsp;said&nbsp;in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also&nbsp;issued patches&nbsp;to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also&nbsp;closed&nbsp;the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.</p><p><blockquote>微软表示，本季度它赢得了美国。陆军合同在十年内价值高达219亿美元，用于基于其最新HoloLens设备的增强现实耳机。该公司还发布了补丁，以解决其Exchange Server内部电子邮件和日历软件中被中国黑客利用的漏洞。它还完成了对视频游戏制造商ZeniMax Media的81亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Notwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&amp;P 500 over the same time period.</p><p><blockquote>尽管盘后出现波动，微软股价今年迄今仍上涨了18%，而标普500同期的涨幅约为12%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157918353","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMicrosoft exceeded analysts’ estimates on the top and bottom lines, as well as revenue guidance.\nWindows revenue growth from device makers was higher than the company had predicted.\nAzure cloud revenue growth was flat from the prior quarter.\n\nMicrosoft shares moved 2.6% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the software maker announced fiscal third-quarter earnings and quarterly revenue guidance that came in stronger than analysts had expected. The company’s operating margin narrowed somewhat as cloud became a larger part of its business.\n\nHere’s how the company did:\n\nEarnings:$1.95 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.78 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\nRevenue:$41.71 billion, vs. $41.03 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.\n\nThe software and hardware maker posted 19% annualized revenue growth for the quarter, which ended March 31, according to a statement. That’s the biggest quarterly increase the company has posted since 2018, thanks in part to gains in PC sales resulting from coronavirus-driven shortages last year.\nThe company said its Azure public cloud, which competes with market leader Amazon Web Services, grew 50%, faster than the 46% growth analysts had expected, according to a CNBC review of 14 equity research notes. In the prior quarter Azure revenue grew 50%. Microsoft does not disclose Azure revenue in dollars.\nWith respect to guidance, Microsoft is expecting $43.6 billion to $44.5 billion in revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter, said Amy Hood, Microsoft’s finance chief, on a conference call with analysts. At the middle of the range that would represent 16% growth, more than the $42.98 billion consensus estimate among analysts polled by Refinitiv.\n\nMicrosoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment delivered $15.12 billion in revenue in the fiscal third quarter. That was up 23% year over year and above the FactSet consensus estimate of $14.92 billion. Intelligent Cloud contains Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, Visual Studio, GitHub and Enterprise Services.\nThe Productivity and Business Processes segment, containing Office, Dynamics and LinkedIn, contributed $13.55 billion in revenue, up 15% and more than the $13.49 billion FactSet consensus. The Teams chat and calling app reached 145 million daily active users, up from 115 million in October, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said on the call.\nThe company’s More Personal Computing unit, which includes Windows, gaming, devices and search, came up with $13.04 billion in revenue. That was up almost 19% and higher than the $12.55 billion consensus. Technology research company Gartner estimated earlier this month that PC manufacturers shipped nearly 70 million units in the quarter, 32% more than in the year-ago quarter, the fastest growth since Gartner started tracking the PC market in 2000.\nThat benefits Microsoft’s sales of Windows licenses to PC makers, which were up 10%. There are now over 1.3 billion monthly active devices running the Windows 10 operating system, Nadella said.\nThe outcome was greater than Microsoft itself had forecast. In January, Hood called for Windows license revenue from device makers to be up in the low single digits.\nThe PC market endured “significant ongoing constraints in the supply chain,” Hood said on Tuesday.\nAt the same time, the gross margin for Microsoft’s broad Commercial Cloud category of products — including Azure, commercial subscriptions to the Office 365 productivity bundle, cloud-based Dynamics 365 enterprise applications and commercial parts of LinkedIn — narrowed to 70% from 71%. The number is important to investors who want to see that Microsoft can continue to make Azure more profitable.\nThe operating margin for the Intelligent Cloud segment that includes Azure also narrowed to 42.5% from about 44.5%. Microsoft’s overall operating margin came in at 40.9%, down from 41.6%.\nMicrosoft said in the quarter it had won a U.S. Army contract worth up to $21.9 billion over a decade for augmented reality headsets based on its latest HoloLens device. The company also issued patches to address vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server on-premises email and calendar software that Chinese hackers exploited. It also closed the $8.1 billion acquisition of video game maker ZeniMax Media.\nNotwithstanding the after-hours move, Microsoft shares are up 18% year to date, compared with a gain of around 12% for the S&P 500 over the same time period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}