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ScarletK

ScarletK

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2021-02-19

things need to change

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2021-02-19

😮

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2021-03-10

[开心]

Is Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote>

2021-02-17

nice

What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>

2021-02-23

Nervous

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2021-02-20

yes

Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote>

2021-02-17

good

Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>

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Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream&nbsp;here.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将于周三举办2021年GE投资者展望活动。感兴趣的交易者和投资者可以在这里注册。</blockquote></p><p> GE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket&nbsp;session.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气在周二盘前交易中突破了14.35美元的52周高点。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>周一，该公司表示董事会已成立战略规划和资本分配委员会，专注于帮助其业务转型的举措，股价连续第五个交易日走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-09 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”</p><p><blockquote>交易者对股票最常见的问题之一是“它为什么会变动？”</blockquote></p><p> That’s why Benzinga created the Why Is It Moving, or WIIM, feature inBenzinga Pro. WIIMs are a one-sentence description as to why that stock is moving.</p><p><blockquote>这就是Benzinga在Benzinga Pro中创建“Why Is It Moving”(WIIM)功能的原因。WIIM是对该股票变动原因的一句话描述。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the latest news and updates for Xpeng, Palantir, GE and GameStop Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周一上午小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE和游戏驿站的最新消息和更新。</blockquote></p><p> Daiwa Capital analyst Kelvin Lau&nbsp;upgraded&nbsp;<b>Xpeng Inc </b>from Sell to Buy and announced&nbsp;a $34 price target.</p><p><blockquote>大和资本分析师Kelvin Lau升级<b>小鹏汽车</b>从卖出到买入，并宣布了34美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>&nbsp;will hold the first in a series of \"Double Click\" demo events at 11 a.m. on&nbsp;Wednesday, April 14, according to a Tuesday&nbsp;press release.</p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir技术公司</b>根据周二的新闻稿，将于4月14日周三上午11点举行一系列“双击”演示活动中的第一场。</blockquote></p><p> Double Click is a series of software demo events from the big data analytics company that showcase how the company's platforms are used across industries.</p><p><blockquote>Double Click是这家大数据分析公司的一系列软件演示活动，展示了该公司的平台如何在各行各业中使用。</blockquote></p><p> Following news of a&nbsp;potential merger&nbsp;with&nbsp;<b>AerCap Holdings N.V.</b>, BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin reiterated a&nbsp;Buy rating on<b>General Electric Company</b>&nbsp;and raised the price target from $14 to $15.</p><p><blockquote>在与潜在合并的消息传出后<b>AerCap控股公司。</b>，美银证券分析师Andrew Obin重申买入评级<b>通用电气公司</b>并将目标价从14美元上调至15美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company will&nbsp;host its 2021 GE Investor Outlook&nbsp;event&nbsp;Wednesday. Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream&nbsp;here.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将于周三举办2021年GE投资者展望活动。感兴趣的交易者和投资者可以在这里注册。</blockquote></p><p> GE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket&nbsp;session.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气在周二盘前交易中突破了14.35美元的52周高点。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>周一，该公司表示董事会已成立战略规划和资本分配委员会，专注于帮助其业务转型的举措，股价连续第五个交易日走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","GME":"游戏驿站","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137016104","content_text":"One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”\nThat’s why Benzinga created the Why Is It Moving, or WIIM, feature inBenzinga Pro. WIIMs are a one-sentence description as to why that stock is moving.\nHere’s the latest news and updates for Xpeng, Palantir, GE and GameStop Monday morning.\nDaiwa Capital analyst Kelvin Lau upgraded Xpeng Inc from Sell to Buy and announced a $34 price target.\nPalantir Technologies Inc will hold the first in a series of \"Double Click\" demo events at 11 a.m. on Wednesday, April 14, according to a Tuesday press release.\nDouble Click is a series of software demo events from the big data analytics company that showcase how the company's platforms are used across industries.\nFollowing news of a potential merger with AerCap Holdings N.V., BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin reiterated a Buy rating onGeneral Electric Company and raised the price target from $14 to $15.\nThe company will host its 2021 GE Investor Outlook event Wednesday. Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream here.\nGE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket session.\nShares of GameStop Corp. were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"GE":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363904074,"gmtCreate":1614089075998,"gmtModify":1634551226700,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nervous","listText":"Nervous","text":"Nervous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363904074","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387554062,"gmtCreate":1613759219956,"gmtModify":1634552321798,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387554062","repostId":"1161529893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161529893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613733842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161529893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161529893","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by so","content":"<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>加州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯说，就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜。他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛GS(-0.91%)将其机器人咨询服务Marcus限制为至少有1000万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少1,000美元可投资的人都可以使用高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同交易算法，每年只需支付0.35%的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在跳上机器人投资列车之前，需要考虑更多成本。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯(Vance Barse)说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>尽管35个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是一个“亏损领头羊”，但他表示，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们忘记了银行最终是为了赚钱，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括Vanguard、Fidelity和Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及Betterment和Wealthfront等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪商的费用会增加到1%及以上。行业出版物Inside Information对近1,000名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和Betterment提供的机器人顾问与Robinhood等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而Robinhood允许用户投资个人ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资作为自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度的新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是rob投资呢？把它想象成一辆自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入你的目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心你的司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易刹车。如果您赶时间并想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好以及期望的短期和长期回报等因素来设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，每年收取的咨询费通常不超过0.5%，而人力投资顾问收取的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅·洛(Cynthia Loh)不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务有更多的人工输入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在MarketWatch上所写：“关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问本质上意味着将资金的控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化和人工组件，在幕后运行事物。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验的投资者或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以对“一劳永逸”的投资方法感到放心，随着时间的推移，让市场做自己的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼·拉姆-贝尔福(Tiffany Lam-Balfour)表示，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你不一定必须做出购买或出售资产的冲动决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你投资时，你不会想一直关注市场并说‘哦，我需要摆脱困境’，”她说。“你想让专业人士来帮你度过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会上涨。即使你有世界上最好的人类财务顾问，你也不能指望这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对老年投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付费用很复杂。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更简化、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合这一要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理更困难、更耗时的日常活动。投资者自己做，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>常常无门可敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。大多数机器人投资平台上要求您填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、期望退休年龄以及您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>然而，它不会知道你是否刚刚有了一个孩子，并想开始为他们的教育存钱，或者你是否最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了那个人向谁寻求建议？该平台是否提供建议？如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化投资建议，提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，纽约市财务咨询集团Lifelaidout的注册财务规划师罗杰·马(Roger Ma)表示，机器人顾问不一定“在管理资金时首先考虑税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售已累计亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马说，传统顾问通常专注于构建能带来最节税结果的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但通过机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易是相同的，这些投资者可能属于与您不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，特别是对于初学者来说，它可能会“使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你只是想尝试一下，并且想感觉自己投资于多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要聘请机器人顾问，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整头寸。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人的建议和人类的建议。2015年，MarketWatch请四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问为一位假设的35岁投资者构建投资组合，投资金额为40,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>对于机器人顾问的批评者来说，结果或许令人惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group的研究总监Michael Kitces在审查结果后表示，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议“没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 19:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>加州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯说，就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜。他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛GS(-0.91%)将其机器人咨询服务Marcus限制为至少有1000万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少1,000美元可投资的人都可以使用高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同交易算法，每年只需支付0.35%的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在跳上机器人投资列车之前，需要考虑更多成本。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯(Vance Barse)说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>尽管35个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是一个“亏损领头羊”，但他表示，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们忘记了银行最终是为了赚钱，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括Vanguard、Fidelity和Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及Betterment和Wealthfront等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪商的费用会增加到1%及以上。行业出版物Inside Information对近1,000名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和Betterment提供的机器人顾问与Robinhood等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而Robinhood允许用户投资个人ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资作为自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度的新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是rob投资呢？把它想象成一辆自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入你的目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心你的司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易刹车。如果您赶时间并想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好以及期望的短期和长期回报等因素来设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，每年收取的咨询费通常不超过0.5%，而人力投资顾问收取的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅·洛(Cynthia Loh)不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务有更多的人工输入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在MarketWatch上所写：“关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问本质上意味着将资金的控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化和人工组件，在幕后运行事物。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验的投资者或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以对“一劳永逸”的投资方法感到放心，随着时间的推移，让市场做自己的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼·拉姆-贝尔福(Tiffany Lam-Balfour)表示，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你不一定必须做出购买或出售资产的冲动决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你投资时，你不会想一直关注市场并说‘哦，我需要摆脱困境’，”她说。“你想让专业人士来帮你度过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会上涨。即使你有世界上最好的人类财务顾问，你也不能指望这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对老年投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付费用很复杂。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更简化、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合这一要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理更困难、更耗时的日常活动。投资者自己做，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>常常无门可敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。大多数机器人投资平台上要求您填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、期望退休年龄以及您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>然而，它不会知道你是否刚刚有了一个孩子，并想开始为他们的教育存钱，或者你是否最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了那个人向谁寻求建议？该平台是否提供建议？如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化投资建议，提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，纽约市财务咨询集团Lifelaidout的注册财务规划师罗杰·马(Roger Ma)表示，机器人顾问不一定“在管理资金时首先考虑税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售已累计亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马说，传统顾问通常专注于构建能带来最节税结果的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但通过机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易是相同的，这些投资者可能属于与您不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，特别是对于初学者来说，它可能会“使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你只是想尝试一下，并且想感觉自己投资于多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要聘请机器人顾问，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整头寸。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人的建议和人类的建议。2015年，MarketWatch请四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问为一位假设的35岁投资者构建投资组合，投资金额为40,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>对于机器人顾问的批评者来说，结果或许令人惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group的研究总监Michael Kitces在审查结果后表示，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议“没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161529893","content_text":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\n\nRobo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.\nNow anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.\n“Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\nAlthough the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.\n“People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.\nGoldman Sachs declined to comment.\nThe company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.\nFees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.\nThe median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.\nRobo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.\nRobo investing as a self-driving car\nConsumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.\nThe rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.\nSo what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.\nYou put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.\nRobo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.\nThere are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.\nAnd rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.\nCynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.\nAs she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”\nRobos appeal to inexperienced investors\nRobo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.\nThat makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.\n“When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”\nThat said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”\nOthers disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.\n“Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.\nThere is often no door to knock on\nYour robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.\nIt won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.\n“The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.\nNot all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.\nAdditionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.\nFor instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.\nBut with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.\nOn top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.\n“If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.\nDon’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.\nBut not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.\nThe results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387906141,"gmtCreate":1613705403983,"gmtModify":1634552572943,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"things need to change&nbsp;","listText":"things need to change&nbsp;","text":"things need to change","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387906141","repostId":"1185112339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387906078,"gmtCreate":1613705347894,"gmtModify":1634552573065,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😮","listText":"😮","text":"😮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387906078","repostId":"1185112339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385628837,"gmtCreate":1613545947229,"gmtModify":1634553216677,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385628837","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385621449,"gmtCreate":1613545875081,"gmtModify":1634553216800,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575683522809139","idStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385621449","repostId":"1184726502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":387906141,"gmtCreate":1613705403983,"gmtModify":1634552572943,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"things need to change&nbsp;","listText":"things need to change&nbsp;","text":"things need to change","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387906141","repostId":"1185112339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387906078,"gmtCreate":1613705347894,"gmtModify":1634552573065,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😮","listText":"😮","text":"😮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387906078","repostId":"1185112339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323174060,"gmtCreate":1615323577250,"gmtModify":1703487315157,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323174060","repostId":"1137016104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137016104","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1615304114,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137016104?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-09 23:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137016104","media":"Benzinga","summary":"One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”\nThat’s why Benzing","content":"<p>One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”</p><p><blockquote>交易者对股票最常见的问题之一是“它为什么会变动？”</blockquote></p><p> That’s why Benzinga created the Why Is It Moving, or WIIM, feature inBenzinga Pro. WIIMs are a one-sentence description as to why that stock is moving.</p><p><blockquote>这就是Benzinga在Benzinga Pro中创建“Why Is It Moving”(WIIM)功能的原因。WIIM是对该股票变动原因的一句话描述。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the latest news and updates for Xpeng, Palantir, GE and GameStop Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周一上午小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE和游戏驿站的最新消息和更新。</blockquote></p><p> Daiwa Capital analyst Kelvin Lau&nbsp;upgraded&nbsp;<b>Xpeng Inc </b>from Sell to Buy and announced&nbsp;a $34 price target.</p><p><blockquote>大和资本分析师Kelvin Lau升级<b>小鹏汽车</b>从卖出到买入，并宣布了34美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>&nbsp;will hold the first in a series of \"Double Click\" demo events at 11 a.m. on&nbsp;Wednesday, April 14, according to a Tuesday&nbsp;press release.</p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir技术公司</b>根据周二的新闻稿，将于4月14日周三上午11点举行一系列“双击”演示活动中的第一场。</blockquote></p><p> Double Click is a series of software demo events from the big data analytics company that showcase how the company's platforms are used across industries.</p><p><blockquote>Double Click是这家大数据分析公司的一系列软件演示活动，展示了该公司的平台如何在各行各业中使用。</blockquote></p><p> Following news of a&nbsp;potential merger&nbsp;with&nbsp;<b>AerCap Holdings N.V.</b>, BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin reiterated a&nbsp;Buy rating on<b>General Electric Company</b>&nbsp;and raised the price target from $14 to $15.</p><p><blockquote>在与潜在合并的消息传出后<b>AerCap控股公司。</b>，美银证券分析师Andrew Obin重申买入评级<b>通用电气公司</b>并将目标价从14美元上调至15美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company will&nbsp;host its 2021 GE Investor Outlook&nbsp;event&nbsp;Wednesday. Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream&nbsp;here.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将于周三举办2021年GE投资者展望活动。感兴趣的交易者和投资者可以在这里注册。</blockquote></p><p> GE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket&nbsp;session.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气在周二盘前交易中突破了14.35美元的52周高点。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>周一，该公司表示董事会已成立战略规划和资本分配委员会，专注于帮助其业务转型的举措，股价连续第五个交易日走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Now The Time To Buy Stock In Xpeng, Palantir, GE Or GameStop?<blockquote>现在是购买小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE或游戏驿站股票的时候吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-09 23:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”</p><p><blockquote>交易者对股票最常见的问题之一是“它为什么会变动？”</blockquote></p><p> That’s why Benzinga created the Why Is It Moving, or WIIM, feature inBenzinga Pro. WIIMs are a one-sentence description as to why that stock is moving.</p><p><blockquote>这就是Benzinga在Benzinga Pro中创建“Why Is It Moving”(WIIM)功能的原因。WIIM是对该股票变动原因的一句话描述。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s the latest news and updates for Xpeng, Palantir, GE and GameStop Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周一上午小鹏汽车、Palantir、GE和游戏驿站的最新消息和更新。</blockquote></p><p> Daiwa Capital analyst Kelvin Lau&nbsp;upgraded&nbsp;<b>Xpeng Inc </b>from Sell to Buy and announced&nbsp;a $34 price target.</p><p><blockquote>大和资本分析师Kelvin Lau升级<b>小鹏汽车</b>从卖出到买入，并宣布了34美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Technologies Inc</b>&nbsp;will hold the first in a series of \"Double Click\" demo events at 11 a.m. on&nbsp;Wednesday, April 14, according to a Tuesday&nbsp;press release.</p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir技术公司</b>根据周二的新闻稿，将于4月14日周三上午11点举行一系列“双击”演示活动中的第一场。</blockquote></p><p> Double Click is a series of software demo events from the big data analytics company that showcase how the company's platforms are used across industries.</p><p><blockquote>Double Click是这家大数据分析公司的一系列软件演示活动，展示了该公司的平台如何在各行各业中使用。</blockquote></p><p> Following news of a&nbsp;potential merger&nbsp;with&nbsp;<b>AerCap Holdings N.V.</b>, BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin reiterated a&nbsp;Buy rating on<b>General Electric Company</b>&nbsp;and raised the price target from $14 to $15.</p><p><blockquote>在与潜在合并的消息传出后<b>AerCap控股公司。</b>，美银证券分析师Andrew Obin重申买入评级<b>通用电气公司</b>并将目标价从14美元上调至15美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company will&nbsp;host its 2021 GE Investor Outlook&nbsp;event&nbsp;Wednesday. Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream&nbsp;here.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将于周三举办2021年GE投资者展望活动。感兴趣的交易者和投资者可以在这里注册。</blockquote></p><p> GE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket&nbsp;session.</p><p><blockquote>通用电气在周二盘前交易中突破了14.35美元的52周高点。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>&nbsp;were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>游戏驿站公司。</b>周一，该公司表示董事会已成立战略规划和资本分配委员会，专注于帮助其业务转型的举措，股价连续第五个交易日走高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","GME":"游戏驿站","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137016104","content_text":"One of the most common questions traders have about stocks is “Why Is It Moving?”\nThat’s why Benzinga created the Why Is It Moving, or WIIM, feature inBenzinga Pro. WIIMs are a one-sentence description as to why that stock is moving.\nHere’s the latest news and updates for Xpeng, Palantir, GE and GameStop Monday morning.\nDaiwa Capital analyst Kelvin Lau upgraded Xpeng Inc from Sell to Buy and announced a $34 price target.\nPalantir Technologies Inc will hold the first in a series of \"Double Click\" demo events at 11 a.m. on Wednesday, April 14, according to a Tuesday press release.\nDouble Click is a series of software demo events from the big data analytics company that showcase how the company's platforms are used across industries.\nFollowing news of a potential merger with AerCap Holdings N.V., BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin reiterated a Buy rating onGeneral Electric Company and raised the price target from $14 to $15.\nThe company will host its 2021 GE Investor Outlook event Wednesday. Interested traders and investors can sign up for the stream here.\nGE passed its 52-week high of $14.35 during Tuesday's premarket session.\nShares of GameStop Corp. were trading higherfor the fifth consecutive trading day Monday after the company said its board has constituted a strategic planning and capital allocation committee to zero in on initiatives to aid its business transformation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"GE":0.9,"PLTR":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385621449,"gmtCreate":1613545875081,"gmtModify":1634553216800,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385621449","repostId":"1184726502","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184726502","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613542262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184726502?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184726502","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will n","content":"<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat signals the top of a bull market in stocks? Not rising interest rates<blockquote>股票牛市顶部的信号是什么？利率不上升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，美国国债收益率大幅上升</blockquote></p><p> CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州教堂山——利率上升不会破坏这次牛市。</blockquote></p><p> That’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield&nbsp;has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这是至关重要的信息，因为利率在过去六个月，尤其是过去几周大幅上升。例如，10年期国债收益率较去年8月上涨了一倍多，从0.52%升至目前的1.20%。其中很大一部分（27个基点）是自今年年初以来才出现的。</blockquote></p><p> I am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my&nbsp;column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.</p><p><blockquote>我重新审视这个话题，因为许多读者显然不相信我本月早些时候的专栏，即利率和股市回报之间没有历史相关性。正如你们中的一些人指出的，该专栏关注的是分析20世纪20年代以来的所有数据时出现的摘要模式。这与特别关注牛市顶部的利率趋势不同。这就是我在本专栏中关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actually<i>lower</i>than where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research维护的日历，自1962年（我的10年期国债收益率数据库可以追溯到1962年）以来，已经经历了17次熊市。在这17个案例中的10个案例中，熊市开始时的10年期国债收益率实际上是<i>降低</i>而不是三个月前的水平。换句话说，在超过一半的熊市中，10年期国债收益率在之前牛市的最后三个月下跌。</blockquote></p><p> You shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，你不应该从这个结果中得出结论，除非利率下降，否则熊市不会发生。请注意，在这17个熊市中，有7个熊市的利率在熊市开始前的三个月内上升。要得出的适当结论是，利率趋势并不是牛市何时结束的可靠指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Fed Funds rate?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联邦基金利率呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> This conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这个结论与我们多年来反复被告知的内容背道而驰，因此我想通过关注联邦基金利率来仔细检查它。这是由美联储公开市场委员会直接制定的短期利率，多年来一些分析师认为，这是股市投资者最应该密切关注的利率。例如，根据埃德森·古尔德著名的“三步一跌规则”，美联储连续三次加息（“三步”）后，股市就会下跌（“跌倒”）。</blockquote></p><p> Gould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.</p><p><blockquote>当然，古尔德是20世纪六七十年代最著名的技术分析师之一。然而，无论他的统治在前几十年有多大的有效性，自20世纪80年代初以来就没有奏效过。就在那时，美联储将其政策制定立场转向以联邦基金利率为目标；在此之前，它专注于M1货币供应。在此后九次牛市中的七次牛市中，联邦基金利率最近的变化是降息，而不是加息。</blockquote></p><p> I have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.</p><p><blockquote>我不知道当前的牛市是否已接近尾声。但我要指出的是，联邦基金利率最近一次变动是在去年3月，当时美联储将利率下调了整整一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.</p><p><blockquote>底线？不要从利率走势来判断牛市何时结束。</blockquote></p><p> This doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着快乐的日子又来了，让我赶紧补充一下。仅仅因为利率上升并不像许多人认为的那样令人担忧，并不意味着没有很多其他担忧。肯定有，高估是最重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-signals-the-top-of-a-bull-market-in-stocks-not-rising-interest-rates-11613490352?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1184726502","content_text":"Treasury yields have risen sharply so far this year\nCHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Rising interest rates will not be what sabotage this bull market.\nThat’s crucial information, since interest rates have risen significantly over the last six months, and especially over the last couple of weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield has more than doubled from where it stood last August, for example, from 0.52% to its current 1.20%. A big chunk of that increase—27 basis points—have come just since the beginning of the year.\nI am revisiting this topic since many readers apparently weren’t convinced by my column earlier this month that there is no historical correlation between interest rates and stock-market returns.As some of you pointed out, that column focused on summary patterns that emerge when analyzing all data back to the 1920s. That is different than focusing on interest-rate trends at bull-market tops in particular. That’s what I am focusing on in this column.\nSince 1962, which is how far back my database for the 10-year Treasury yield extends, there have been 17 bear markets, according to the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. In 10 of those 17 cases, the 10-year Treasury yield when those bear market began was actuallylowerthan where it had stood three months prior. In other words, in more than half of the bear markets the 10-year yield had fallen over the last three months of the preceding bull markets.\nYou shouldn’t conclude from this result that a bear market can’t happen unless interest rates are declining, however. Notice that in seven of these 17 bear markets, interest rates rose over the three months preceding the beginnings of those bear markets. The appropriate conclusion to draw is that interest-rate trends are an unreliable guide to when bull markets will come to an end.\nWhat about the Fed Funds rate?\nThis conclusion runs so counter to what we’re been repeatedly told over the years that I wanted to double-check it by focusing on the Federal Funds rate. This is the short-term rate that is directly set by the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, and some analysts over the years have believed that it is the interest rate to which stock market investors should pay closest attention. According to Edson Gould’s famous “three steps and a stumble rule,” for example, the stock market will decline (“stumble”) after three consecutive interest rate hikes (“three steps”) from the Federal Reserve.\nGould, of course, was one of the most famous technical analysts of the 1960s and 1970s. Nevertheless, however much validity his rule may have had in prior decades, it hasn’t worked since the early 1980s. That’s when the Federal Reserve shifted its policy-setting stance to targeting the Fed Funds rate; before hat it focused on M1 money supply. At the top of seven of the nine bull markets since then, the most recent change in the Fed Funds rate was a cut—not an increase.\nI have no idea whether the current bull market is close to an end. But I would note that the most recent move in the Federal Funds rate was last March, when the Fed cut it by a full percentage point.\nThe bottom line? Don’t look to interest rate trends for when the bull market will come to an end.\nThis doesn’t mean that happy days are here again, let me hasten to add. Just because rising interest rates are not the concern that many think them to be doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other worries. There most definitely are,with overvaluation at the top of the list.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363904074,"gmtCreate":1614089075998,"gmtModify":1634551226700,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nervous","listText":"Nervous","text":"Nervous","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363904074","repostId":"1198320495","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387554062,"gmtCreate":1613759219956,"gmtModify":1634552321798,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387554062","repostId":"1161529893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161529893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613733842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161529893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161529893","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by so","content":"<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>加州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯说，就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜。他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛GS(-0.91%)将其机器人咨询服务Marcus限制为至少有1000万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少1,000美元可投资的人都可以使用高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同交易算法，每年只需支付0.35%的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在跳上机器人投资列车之前，需要考虑更多成本。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯(Vance Barse)说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>尽管35个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是一个“亏损领头羊”，但他表示，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们忘记了银行最终是为了赚钱，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括Vanguard、Fidelity和Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及Betterment和Wealthfront等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪商的费用会增加到1%及以上。行业出版物Inside Information对近1,000名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和Betterment提供的机器人顾问与Robinhood等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而Robinhood允许用户投资个人ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资作为自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度的新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是rob投资呢？把它想象成一辆自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入你的目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心你的司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易刹车。如果您赶时间并想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好以及期望的短期和长期回报等因素来设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，每年收取的咨询费通常不超过0.5%，而人力投资顾问收取的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅·洛(Cynthia Loh)不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务有更多的人工输入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在MarketWatch上所写：“关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问本质上意味着将资金的控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化和人工组件，在幕后运行事物。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验的投资者或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以对“一劳永逸”的投资方法感到放心，随着时间的推移，让市场做自己的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼·拉姆-贝尔福(Tiffany Lam-Balfour)表示，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你不一定必须做出购买或出售资产的冲动决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你投资时，你不会想一直关注市场并说‘哦，我需要摆脱困境’，”她说。“你想让专业人士来帮你度过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会上涨。即使你有世界上最好的人类财务顾问，你也不能指望这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对老年投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付费用很复杂。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更简化、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合这一要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理更困难、更耗时的日常活动。投资者自己做，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>常常无门可敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。大多数机器人投资平台上要求您填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、期望退休年龄以及您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>然而，它不会知道你是否刚刚有了一个孩子，并想开始为他们的教育存钱，或者你是否最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了那个人向谁寻求建议？该平台是否提供建议？如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化投资建议，提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，纽约市财务咨询集团Lifelaidout的注册财务规划师罗杰·马(Roger Ma)表示，机器人顾问不一定“在管理资金时首先考虑税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售已累计亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马说，传统顾问通常专注于构建能带来最节税结果的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但通过机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易是相同的，这些投资者可能属于与您不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，特别是对于初学者来说，它可能会“使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你只是想尝试一下，并且想感觉自己投资于多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要聘请机器人顾问，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整头寸。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人的建议和人类的建议。2015年，MarketWatch请四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问为一位假设的35岁投资者构建投资组合，投资金额为40,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>对于机器人顾问的批评者来说，结果或许令人惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group的研究总监Michael Kitces在审查结果后表示，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议“没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资行列——你应该加入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 19:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>加州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯说，就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜。他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛GS(-0.91%)将其机器人咨询服务Marcus限制为至少有1000万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少1,000美元可投资的人都可以使用高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同交易算法，每年只需支付0.35%的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在跳上机器人投资列车之前，需要考虑更多成本。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，众议院通常会获胜，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴斯(Vance Barse)说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>尽管35个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是一个“亏损领头羊”，但他表示，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“人们忘记了银行最终是为了赚钱，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括Vanguard、Fidelity和Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及Betterment和Wealthfront等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪商的费用会增加到1%及以上。行业出版物Inside Information对近1,000名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和Betterment提供的机器人顾问与Robinhood等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而Robinhood允许用户投资个人ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资作为自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度的新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是rob投资呢？把它想象成一辆自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入你的目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心你的司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易刹车。如果您赶时间并想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好以及期望的短期和长期回报等因素来设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，每年收取的咨询费通常不超过0.5%，而人力投资顾问收取的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅·洛(Cynthia Loh)不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务有更多的人工输入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在MarketWatch上所写：“关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问本质上意味着将资金的控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化和人工组件，在幕后运行事物。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验的投资者或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以对“一劳永逸”的投资方法感到放心，随着时间的推移，让市场做自己的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼·拉姆-贝尔福(Tiffany Lam-Balfour)表示，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你不一定必须做出购买或出售资产的冲动决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“当你投资时，你不会想一直关注市场并说‘哦，我需要摆脱困境’，”她说。“你想让专业人士来帮你度过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会上涨。即使你有世界上最好的人类财务顾问，你也不能指望这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对老年投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付费用很复杂。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更简化、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合这一要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理更困难、更耗时的日常活动。投资者自己做，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>常常无门可敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。大多数机器人投资平台上要求您填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、期望退休年龄以及您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>然而，它不会知道你是否刚刚有了一个孩子，并想开始为他们的教育存钱，或者你是否最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了那个人向谁寻求建议？该平台是否提供建议？如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化投资建议，提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，纽约市财务咨询集团Lifelaidout的注册财务规划师罗杰·马(Roger Ma)表示，机器人顾问不一定“在管理资金时首先考虑税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售已累计亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马说，传统顾问通常专注于构建能带来最节税结果的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但通过机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易是相同的，这些投资者可能属于与您不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，特别是对于初学者来说，它可能会“使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果你只是想尝试一下，并且想感觉自己投资于多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要聘请机器人顾问，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整头寸。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人的建议和人类的建议。2015年，MarketWatch请四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问为一位假设的35岁投资者构建投资组合，投资金额为40,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>对于机器人顾问的批评者来说，结果或许令人惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group的研究总监Michael Kitces在审查结果后表示，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议“没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161529893","content_text":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\n\nRobo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.\nNow anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.\n“Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\nAlthough the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.\n“People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.\nGoldman Sachs declined to comment.\nThe company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.\nFees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.\nThe median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.\nRobo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.\nRobo investing as a self-driving car\nConsumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.\nThe rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.\nSo what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.\nYou put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.\nRobo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.\nThere are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.\nAnd rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.\nCynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.\nAs she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”\nRobos appeal to inexperienced investors\nRobo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.\nThat makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.\n“When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”\nThat said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”\nOthers disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.\n“Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.\nThere is often no door to knock on\nYour robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.\nIt won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.\n“The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.\nNot all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.\nAdditionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.\nFor instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.\nBut with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.\nOn top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.\n“If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.\nDon’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.\nBut not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.\nThe results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385628837,"gmtCreate":1613545947229,"gmtModify":1634553216677,"author":{"id":"3575683522809139","authorId":"3575683522809139","name":"ScarletK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868eef6300d2210b1f895f1ce46e725","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575683522809139","authorIdStr":"3575683522809139"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385628837","repostId":"1146053060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146053060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613540252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146053060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 13:37","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146053060","media":"Oilprice","summary":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an econ","content":"<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606109400967","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This Oil Rally The Start Of Something Much Bigger?<blockquote>这次油价上涨是更大事件的开始吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Oilprice</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 13:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.</p><p><blockquote>在经济复苏、宽松货币政策和通胀上升的预期下，大宗商品近几个月来上涨，表现优于股指。</blockquote></p><p> The commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.</p><p><blockquote>分析师和投资银行表示，在过去三个月油价上涨50%的带动下，大宗商品全面牛市尚未结束。一些最大的投资银行甚至开始看涨期权新的大宗商品超级周期的开始，根据定义，这一周期会持续数年——通常约为十年。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the term<i>supercycle</i>is too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.</p><p><blockquote>然而，并非所有投资银行和分析师都相信我们将全面进入大宗商品超级周期，并警告称，<i>超级循环</i>对于牛市来说过于乐观，牛市可能会在一两年内失败，并且仍可能成为与新冠病毒相关的负面影响的受害者。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Commodity Rally</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>大宗商品反弹</i></b></blockquote></p><p> As early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an&nbsp;effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs&nbsp;said&nbsp;that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.</p><p><blockquote>早在2020年10月，即首次宣布有效候选疫苗的几周前，高盛就表示大宗商品将在2021年走向牛市。高盛当时表示，对冲通胀上升的预期、大多数大宗商品交易的美元走软以及央行“非常宽松”货币政策的信号将是大宗商品上涨的关键驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman expected the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.</p><p><blockquote>高盛预计，标普高盛商品指数(GSCI)在12个月内能源回报率为42.6%，贵金属回报率为17.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past three months, the&nbsp;S&amp;P GSCI has outperformed&nbsp;the S&amp;P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，标普GSCI的表现优于标普500指数，大宗商品指数上涨了25%，而标普500（仅）上涨了9%。</blockquote></p><p> Over the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.</p><p><blockquote>同期，受疫苗推出、OPEC+减产以及对今年晚些时候经济恢复增长时市场紧张和石油需求上升的预期推动，油价从每桶40美元的低点反弹至60美元以上。大型刺激方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Some Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>新超级周期的一些驱动因素在这里……</i></b></blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通表示，有理由相信，一个新的大宗商品超级周期可能刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by&nbsp;Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，以马尔科·科拉诺维奇为首的摩根大通分析师上周在一份报告中表示：“我们认为，新的大宗商品上涨，特别是石油上涨周期已经开始。”</blockquote></p><p> The latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.</p><p><blockquote>在中国过度支出和经济飙升的推动下，最近一次大宗商品超级周期在经历了12年后于2008年结束。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan now sees several&nbsp;potential factors&nbsp;underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通现在看到了支撑新超级周期的几个潜在因素：大流行后的全球经济增长、“超宽松”货币政策、通胀上升和可容忍、美元走软、对冲通胀的资金流入、电池和电动汽车等能源转型市场的金属（EV），以及对新石油供应的投资不足。</blockquote></p><p> The International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;warned&nbsp;last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).</p><p><blockquote>国际能源署（IEA）去年警告称，如果未来五年石油投资保持在2020年的水平，将使此前预期的2025年石油供应水平减少近900万桶/日（bpd）。</blockquote></p><p> This year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie&nbsp;said&nbsp;in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>Wood Mackenzie在12月表示，今年，全球上游投资将保持在低位，就像2020年一样，预计上游石油和天然气投资将处于15年来的最低点，仅为3000亿美元，比2019年危机前的投资水平下降30%。</blockquote></p><p> “The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管在2021年之后，世界可能会梦游般地陷入供应紧缩。到2022年底，石油需求恢复到1亿桶/日以上，这增加了本十年晚些时候材料供应缺口的风险，引发价格飙升，”WoodMac董事长兼首席分析师西蒙·弗劳尔斯(Simon Flowers)表示。</blockquote></p><p> Then, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel&nbsp;next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.</p><p><blockquote>Energy Aspects首席石油分析师阿姆里塔·森(Amrita Sen)本月早些时候对彭博社表示，“非常宽松的货币政策”和通货再膨胀贸易可能会将明年油价推高至每桶100美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.</p><p><blockquote>盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen在评论交易员最新承诺报告时表示，截至2月9日的一周，对冲基金对24种主要商品期货的看涨押注增加了5%，达到270万手的新高，名义价值为1437亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.</p><p><blockquote>汉森指出，布伦特原油和WTI原油的净多头头寸（看涨和看跌押注之间的差额）现已升至28个月来的最高水平，而农业中谷物板块的净多头距离2012年8月创下的纪录不远。</blockquote></p><p> Post-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.</p><p><blockquote>汉森表示，大流行后的增长、供应收紧以及对通货再膨胀对冲的持续需求将彭博大宗商品指数推至27个月高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>But Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>但这是下一个大宗商品超级周期的开始吗？</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Although crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>尽管原油和其他大宗商品出现反弹，并出现了支持看涨期权进入新一轮超级周期的信号，但一些分析师持谨慎态度，称现在宣布下一轮大宗商品超级周期的开始还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> What we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told&nbsp;Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Ninety One的投资组合经理George Cheveley对英国《金融时报》自然资源编辑Neil Hume表示，我们目前在石油和大宗商品中看到的是周期性复苏，但超级周期可能“还需要两到三年的时间”。</blockquote></p><p> This bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the&nbsp;Financial Post&nbsp;in an interview last week.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团董事总经理兼大宗商品研究全球主管埃德·莫尔斯(Ed Morse)表示，本轮牛市不太可能演变成大宗商品的超级周期，因为尽管投资可能低迷，但包括原油在内的许多大宗商品“材料丰富”。上周接受《金融邮报》采访时。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品无疑受益于人们的乐观情绪，即新冠疫情后的增长和刺激计划将提振需求和价格，但现在宣扬下一个长达十年的全面大宗商品超级周期可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html\">Oilprice</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-This-Oil-Rally-The-Start-Of-Something-Much-Bigger.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146053060","content_text":"Commodities have rallied in recent months, outperforming equity indexes amid expectations of an economic recovery, easy monetary policy, and rising inflation.\nThe commodity bull run across the board—spearheaded by a 50-percent jump in oil prices over the past three months—isn’t finished running, analysts and investment banks say. Some of the biggest investment banks have even started to call the start of a new commodities supercycle, which by definition, lasts years—typically about a decade.\nYet, not all investment banks and analysts are as convinced that we are in for a commodities supercycle across the board, warning that the termsupercycleis too optimistic for a bull run that could fizzle out within a year or two and could still fall victim to negative COVID-related impacts.\nCommodity Rally\nAs early as in October 2020, a few weeks before the first announcement of an effective vaccine candidate, Goldman Sachs said that commodities were headed toward a bull run in 2021. Hedges against expectations of rising inflation, a weakening U.S. dollar in which most commodities are traded, and signals of “very easy” monetary policy from central banks would be the key drivers of rallying commodities, Goldman Sachs said back then.\nGoldman expected the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) to return 42.6 percent for energy over a 12-month period, and 17.9 percent for precious metals.\nOver the past three months, the S&P GSCI has outperformed the S&P 500 index, with the commodity index rising by 25 percent, compared to (just) a 9-percent increase in the S&P 500.\nOver the same period, oil prices have rallied from the low $40s to above $60 a barrel, driven by vaccine rollouts, OPEC+ production cuts, and expectations of a tight market and rising oil demand later this year when economies return to growth, helped by large stimulus packages.\nSome Drivers Of A New Supercycle Are Here…\nAccording to JPMorgan, there are reasons to believe that a new commodity supercycle may have just started.\n“We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,” JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said in a note last week, as carried by Bloomberg.\nThe latest commodity supercycle ended in 2008 after a 12-year run, boosted by the super-spending and economic surge in China.\nJPMorgan now sees several potential factors underpinning a new supercycle: post-pandemic global economic growth, “ultra loose” monetary policies, increased and tolerated inflation, weakening U.S. dollar, financial inflows to hedge inflation, metals for energy transition markets such as batteries and electric vehicles (EVs), and underinvestment in new oil supply.\nThe International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last year that if investment in oil were to stay at the 2020 levels over the next five years, it would reduce the previously expected level of oil supply in 2025 by nearly 9 million barrels per day (bpd).\nThis year, global upstream investments will stay low, just like they were in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said in December, expecting upstream oil and gas investment at a 15-year low of just US$300 billion, down by 30 percent from the pre-crisis level of investment in 2019.\n“The world may be sleepwalking into a supply crunch, albeit beyond 2021. A recovery in oil demand back to over 100 million b/d by late 2022 increases risk of a material supply gap later this decade, triggering an upward spike in price,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at WoodMac.\nThen, “very easy monetary policy” and reflation trade could push oil pricesas high as $100 a barrel next year, Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg earlier this month.\nIn the week to February 9, hedge funds increased bullish bets on 24 major commodity futures by 5 percent to a fresh high of 2.7 million lots, representing a nominal value of $143.7 billion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank,said, commenting on the latest Commitments of Traders report.\nThe combined net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—in Brent and WTI has now increased to the highest in 28 months, while the net long in the grain sector in agriculture is not far from the record set in August 2012, Hansen noted.\nPost-pandemic growth, tightening supply, and continued demand for reflation hedges pushed the Bloomberg Commodity index to a 27-month high, Hansen said.\nBut Is This The Start Of The Next Commodities Supercycle?\nAlthough crude oil and other commodities have rallied and signals have emerged to support the call for a new supercycle, some analysts are cautious and say it is a little early to proclaim the beginning of the next commodity supercycle.\nWhat we see in oil and commodities right now is a cyclical recovery, but a supercycle could be “two to three years away,” George Cheveley, portfolio manager at asset management company Ninety One, told Financial Times’ Natural Resources Editor Neil Hume.\nThis bull run is unlikely to turn into a supercycle for commodities, because while investment may be depressed, “the material is abundant” for many commodities, including crude oil, Ed Morse, managing director and global head of commodities research at Citigroup, told the Financial Post in an interview last week.\nCommodities have certainly benefited from the optimism that post-COVID growth and stimulus packages will boost demand and prices, but it may be a little premature to trumpet the next decade-long across-the-board commodities supercycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}