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未料胜先料败
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未料胜先料败
2023-01-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看懂了死多头的思维模式,一个词概括就是“刻舟求剑”:今年增长40%,明年肯定也是40%。 1、马斯克又卖股又说严重经济危机要来了,特斯拉又降价又降预期,也同样说明自己都相当不看好明年增长率。 2、多头一大期望是:因为高通胀、低消费,能在中国熬死三傻等、在美国熬死福特等新势力。可惜在中美都属于国家战略行业,不允许一家独大;国家资本扶持或补贴所有新势力,对有最大盈利的特斯拉来说,其实非常不公平即非常不利。 3、马斯克不可能马上抽身回归特斯拉,大概率还要筹钱养推特好几年。 4、高通胀和加息,让原材料(包括电价)全面涨价,特斯拉利润率将大缩水。 全是大利空的情况下,市场当前给的市价是动态PE稍低于40倍,如果明后年的增长明显低于今年,那这个价格完全不低甚至相当高。
未料胜先料败
2022-04-21
$奈飞(NFLX)$
业务模式被彻底看空还得继续跌,市盈率向15-倍看齐。已买一个月的170put;把多头彻底榨干;把奈飞搞成爱奇艺!
未料胜先料败
2022-02-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
发现特斯拉的深度价内期权组合的年收益率竟达13%!具体策略是:1、卖出23年1/20日到期的call@500;2、同时卖出同日到期的put@1400;到期日在500-1400价内就必定行权从而形成必卖必买。按昨天收盘时的期权买盘价,经过计算发现稳稳的高卖(946)低买(836.2),年收益率达到13.13%。这个策略近乎于无风险套利:特斯拉1年后腰斩到500的可能性近乎为零;在加息行情下明年初涨破1400的可能性也极低。如券商app能识别此组合那保证金也会比较低。PS:如果你要更安全的put,也可以卖更高的put(比如最高的2475),但是收益率会降低(946/908=4.2%)
@期权小班长
原因何在?是不是值得研究下?
未料胜先料败
2022-07-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这把崩到哪?
未料胜先料败
2021-12-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉的合理估值,你们觉得是多少?200?400?500?700?800?900?1200?1500?3000?
未料胜先料败
2022-12-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这么惨,可以抄底不,大佬们?
未料胜先料败
2022-06-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
@AS大空头
大空头,今晚出来感谢下 " 衣食父母 "啊!没有这些多头铁粉帮你高位护盘,你怎么能赚翻呢!
未料胜先料败
2021-12-03
$滴滴(DIDI)$
最好是现金回购退市[财迷] [财迷]
未料胜先料败
2022-06-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天,可不可以抄底?
未料胜先料败
2022-05-25
电视热刚出现时,电视直销也很热;二三十年后的现在已消失殆尽。时代会进步,新销售方式总会过时。 下下代人会更有钱更有时间更有主见,真需要听导购员在那大呼小叫、半送半卖伪劣商品?
@天辰家:淘宝直播,困境中阿里电商的新出路?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","listText":"[得意] ","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334143325909000","repostId":"333992640933888","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333992640933888,"gmtCreate":1722574098597,"gmtModify":1722574123366,"author":{"id":"4142574206948102","authorId":"4142574206948102","name":"期权叨叨虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87212d005a0736e14fa8b5e673df8099","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142574206948102","authorIdStr":"4142574206948102"},"themes":[],"title":"美股暴跌怎么办?看看美债和波动率指数","htmlText":"美股市场周四迎来了华尔街的大规模抛售,道琼斯指数和标普500指数都下跌超过1个百分点,显示出市场的恐慌心态。而这一次的抛售与公布的两项数据有关,美国7月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数24.9万人,高于预期的23.6万人和前值的23.5万人,数据反弹至一年来最高。美国7月ISM制造业PMI为46.8,显著低于市场预期的48.8和6月前值的48.5,萎缩幅度创八个月最大,加剧了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧。高级投资组合策略师Tim Ghriskey表示,ISM导致的抛售行为具有极强的传染性。目前,美股仍处于财报季,可能会出现一些积极的因素推动市场走高,但如果出现ISM这样的负面因素,就会引发获利回吐。美国供应管理协会主席Timothy R. Fiore指出,美国制造业活动进一步萎缩,需求十分疲软,产业也在下降,投入总体宽松。Fiore强调,由于当前的联邦货币政策和其他问题,企业不愿意投资资本和增加库存,生产执行率还在下降,增加了企业的盈利压力。种种数据加深了市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧,增长前景十分黯淡。在这样的不利情况下,市场仍然存在投资机会,投资者可以关注美债和波动率指数,这两个品种在暴跌和衰退的环境下会有不错的表现。如果市场进一步暴跌,波动率指数会带来不错的做空机会。针对短期的VIX走势,如果市场后续不发生暴跌,行情横盘、上涨、微跌,VIX指数都会逐渐走低。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率降低,可以采取卖出看涨期权、熊市价差等方法做空UVXY。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率会继续加大,市场会继续暴跌,可以采取买入看涨期权、牛市价差等方法做多UVXY。另一个不错的机会是关于美国国债TLT,意外疲软的美国经济数据强化了债市对美联储的降息预期爆棚,互换合约的定价显示,交易员已经完全消化了今年美联储会合计降息75个基点的宽松预期。这意味着,他们预计,美联储会在今年剩余的三次货币政策会议上","listText":"美股市场周四迎来了华尔街的大规模抛售,道琼斯指数和标普500指数都下跌超过1个百分点,显示出市场的恐慌心态。而这一次的抛售与公布的两项数据有关,美国7月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数24.9万人,高于预期的23.6万人和前值的23.5万人,数据反弹至一年来最高。美国7月ISM制造业PMI为46.8,显著低于市场预期的48.8和6月前值的48.5,萎缩幅度创八个月最大,加剧了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧。高级投资组合策略师Tim Ghriskey表示,ISM导致的抛售行为具有极强的传染性。目前,美股仍处于财报季,可能会出现一些积极的因素推动市场走高,但如果出现ISM这样的负面因素,就会引发获利回吐。美国供应管理协会主席Timothy R. Fiore指出,美国制造业活动进一步萎缩,需求十分疲软,产业也在下降,投入总体宽松。Fiore强调,由于当前的联邦货币政策和其他问题,企业不愿意投资资本和增加库存,生产执行率还在下降,增加了企业的盈利压力。种种数据加深了市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧,增长前景十分黯淡。在这样的不利情况下,市场仍然存在投资机会,投资者可以关注美债和波动率指数,这两个品种在暴跌和衰退的环境下会有不错的表现。如果市场进一步暴跌,波动率指数会带来不错的做空机会。针对短期的VIX走势,如果市场后续不发生暴跌,行情横盘、上涨、微跌,VIX指数都会逐渐走低。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率降低,可以采取卖出看涨期权、熊市价差等方法做空UVXY。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率会继续加大,市场会继续暴跌,可以采取买入看涨期权、牛市价差等方法做多UVXY。另一个不错的机会是关于美国国债TLT,意外疲软的美国经济数据强化了债市对美联储的降息预期爆棚,互换合约的定价显示,交易员已经完全消化了今年美联储会合计降息75个基点的宽松预期。这意味着,他们预计,美联储会在今年剩余的三次货币政策会议上","text":"美股市场周四迎来了华尔街的大规模抛售,道琼斯指数和标普500指数都下跌超过1个百分点,显示出市场的恐慌心态。而这一次的抛售与公布的两项数据有关,美国7月27日当周首次申请失业救济人数24.9万人,高于预期的23.6万人和前值的23.5万人,数据反弹至一年来最高。美国7月ISM制造业PMI为46.8,显著低于市场预期的48.8和6月前值的48.5,萎缩幅度创八个月最大,加剧了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧。高级投资组合策略师Tim Ghriskey表示,ISM导致的抛售行为具有极强的传染性。目前,美股仍处于财报季,可能会出现一些积极的因素推动市场走高,但如果出现ISM这样的负面因素,就会引发获利回吐。美国供应管理协会主席Timothy R. Fiore指出,美国制造业活动进一步萎缩,需求十分疲软,产业也在下降,投入总体宽松。Fiore强调,由于当前的联邦货币政策和其他问题,企业不愿意投资资本和增加库存,生产执行率还在下降,增加了企业的盈利压力。种种数据加深了市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧,增长前景十分黯淡。在这样的不利情况下,市场仍然存在投资机会,投资者可以关注美债和波动率指数,这两个品种在暴跌和衰退的环境下会有不错的表现。如果市场进一步暴跌,波动率指数会带来不错的做空机会。针对短期的VIX走势,如果市场后续不发生暴跌,行情横盘、上涨、微跌,VIX指数都会逐渐走低。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率降低,可以采取卖出看涨期权、熊市价差等方法做空UVXY。如果投资者认为后续的市场波动率会继续加大,市场会继续暴跌,可以采取买入看涨期权、牛市价差等方法做多UVXY。另一个不错的机会是关于美国国债TLT,意外疲软的美国经济数据强化了债市对美联储的降息预期爆棚,互换合约的定价显示,交易员已经完全消化了今年美联储会合计降息75个基点的宽松预期。这意味着,他们预计,美联储会在今年剩余的三次货币政策会议上","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69d66534b6b398968faab788c368cc5f","width":"830","height":"570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333992640933888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298047261171808,"gmtCreate":1713794251422,"gmtModify":1713794254886,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575695026604385","authorIdStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c18333873506ef13b11ca05f2ca46e8e","width":"1170","height":"2289"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298047261171808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":297693041000456,"gmtCreate":1713707763693,"gmtModify":1713707765537,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575695026604385","authorIdStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当前算法是一次性长时间训练好的模型就能在该领域重复使用,不需要每个人都去训练一次!也就是只有大公司的云算力需求,个人需求没有经济效率和可行性(且以后算法肯定闭源),难以个性化需求持续爆发,等过两年ai pc热潮过后就到顶,再过三五年某些科学家团队宣布ai算法无法替代人类解决大部分问题后,ai应用就彻底不热了、司空见惯的用ai陪你下棋打牌玩游戏写稿子做插图。","listText":"当前算法是一次性长时间训练好的模型就能在该领域重复使用,不需要每个人都去训练一次!也就是只有大公司的云算力需求,个人需求没有经济效率和可行性(且以后算法肯定闭源),难以个性化需求持续爆发,等过两年ai pc热潮过后就到顶,再过三五年某些科学家团队宣布ai算法无法替代人类解决大部分问题后,ai应用就彻底不热了、司空见惯的用ai陪你下棋打牌玩游戏写稿子做插图。","text":"当前算法是一次性长时间训练好的模型就能在该领域重复使用,不需要每个人都去训练一次!也就是只有大公司的云算力需求,个人需求没有经济效率和可行性(且以后算法肯定闭源),难以个性化需求持续爆发,等过两年ai pc热潮过后就到顶,再过三五年某些科学家团队宣布ai算法无法替代人类解决大部分问题后,ai应用就彻底不热了、司空见惯的用ai陪你下棋打牌玩游戏写稿子做插图。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297693041000456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297688262721832,"gmtCreate":1713706672726,"gmtModify":1713752788938,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575695026604385","authorIdStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 跌到中国芯片全部倒闭之时,至少是中国对美宣布战败的时候,就可以抄底了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 跌到中国芯片全部倒闭之时,至少是中国对美宣布战败的时候,就可以抄底了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 跌到中国芯片全部倒闭之时,至少是中国对美宣布战败的时候,就可以抄底了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297688262721832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3500038331774042","authorId":"3500038331774042","name":"MZET","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac0ff5c3153ab4e33b884c247f79c68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3500038331774042","authorIdStr":"3500038331774042"},"content":"兄弟,这么狂吗?你很危险啊,保重。 PS真你说的那样...咋小民也很难先知先觉啊","text":"兄弟,这么狂吗?你很危险啊,保重。 PS真你说的那样...咋小民也很难先知先觉啊","html":"兄弟,这么狂吗?你很危险啊,保重。 PS真你说的那样...咋小民也很难先知先觉啊"},{"author":{"id":"3471918472363967","authorId":"3471918472363967","name":"吼吼吼哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a44be5e15aaf5741157c420c207f63","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3471918472363967","authorIdStr":"3471918472363967"},"content":"兄弟,低调一点[捂脸]","text":"兄弟,低调一点[捂脸]","html":"兄弟,低调一点[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":628017299,"gmtCreate":1672755299011,"gmtModify":1672755302806,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>看懂了死多头的思维模式,一个词概括就是“刻舟求剑”:今年增长40%,明年肯定也是40%。 1、马斯克又卖股又说严重经济危机要来了,特斯拉又降价又降预期,也同样说明自己都相当不看好明年增长率。 2、多头一大期望是:因为高通胀、低消费,能在中国熬死三傻等、在美国熬死福特等新势力。可惜在中美都属于国家战略行业,不允许一家独大;国家资本扶持或补贴所有新势力,对有最大盈利的特斯拉来说,其实非常不公平即非常不利。 3、马斯克不可能马上抽身回归特斯拉,大概率还要筹钱养推特好几年。 4、高通胀和加息,让原材料(包括电价)全面涨价,特斯拉利润率将大缩水。 全是大利空的情况下,市场当前给的市价是动态PE稍低于40倍,如果明后年的增长明显低于今年,那这个价格完全不低甚至相当高。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>看懂了死多头的思维模式,一个词概括就是“刻舟求剑”:今年增长40%,明年肯定也是40%。 1、马斯克又卖股又说严重经济危机要来了,特斯拉又降价又降预期,也同样说明自己都相当不看好明年增长率。 2、多头一大期望是:因为高通胀、低消费,能在中国熬死三傻等、在美国熬死福特等新势力。可惜在中美都属于国家战略行业,不允许一家独大;国家资本扶持或补贴所有新势力,对有最大盈利的特斯拉来说,其实非常不公平即非常不利。 3、马斯克不可能马上抽身回归特斯拉,大概率还要筹钱养推特好几年。 4、高通胀和加息,让原材料(包括电价)全面涨价,特斯拉利润率将大缩水。 全是大利空的情况下,市场当前给的市价是动态PE稍低于40倍,如果明后年的增长明显低于今年,那这个价格完全不低甚至相当高。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 看懂了死多头的思维模式,一个词概括就是“刻舟求剑”:今年增长40%,明年肯定也是40%。 1、马斯克又卖股又说严重经济危机要来了,特斯拉又降价又降预期,也同样说明自己都相当不看好明年增长率。 2、多头一大期望是:因为高通胀、低消费,能在中国熬死三傻等、在美国熬死福特等新势力。可惜在中美都属于国家战略行业,不允许一家独大;国家资本扶持或补贴所有新势力,对有最大盈利的特斯拉来说,其实非常不公平即非常不利。 3、马斯克不可能马上抽身回归特斯拉,大概率还要筹钱养推特好几年。 4、高通胀和加息,让原材料(包括电价)全面涨价,特斯拉利润率将大缩水。 全是大利空的情况下,市场当前给的市价是动态PE稍低于40倍,如果明后年的增长明显低于今年,那这个价格完全不低甚至相当高。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628017299","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557980699082947","authorId":"3557980699082947","name":"Buffet2020","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557980699082947","idStr":"3557980699082947"},"content":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","html":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?"},{"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"content":"还没算上马斯克出昏招:贷巨款收购推特,深度卷入政治和媒体,大嘴引导舆论、曝光两党隐私。得罪了两党大佬的后果:轻一点被取消补贴资格;重一点直接让特斯拉工厂撤出中欧、搬回美国。分分钟的阳谋搞死你!","text":"还没算上马斯克出昏招:贷巨款收购推特,深度卷入政治和媒体,大嘴引导舆论、曝光两党隐私。得罪了两党大佬的后果:轻一点被取消补贴资格;重一点直接让特斯拉工厂撤出中欧、搬回美国。分分钟的阳谋搞死你!","html":"还没算上马斯克出昏招:贷巨款收购推特,深度卷入政治和媒体,大嘴引导舆论、曝光两党隐私。得罪了两党大佬的后果:轻一点被取消补贴资格;重一点直接让特斯拉工厂撤出中欧、搬回美国。分分钟的阳谋搞死你!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611540298,"gmtCreate":1650553115013,"gmtModify":1650609502540,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>业务模式被彻底看空还得继续跌,市盈率向15-倍看齐。已买一个月的170put;把多头彻底榨干;把奈飞搞成爱奇艺!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>业务模式被彻底看空还得继续跌,市盈率向15-倍看齐。已买一个月的170put;把多头彻底榨干;把奈飞搞成爱奇艺!","text":"$奈飞(NFLX)$业务模式被彻底看空还得继续跌,市盈率向15-倍看齐。已买一个月的170put;把多头彻底榨干;把奈飞搞成爱奇艺!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611540298","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633892840,"gmtCreate":1643904157047,"gmtModify":1644221950931,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>发现特斯拉的深度价内期权组合的年收益率竟达13%!具体策略是:1、卖出23年1/20日到期的call@500;2、同时卖出同日到期的put@1400;到期日在500-1400价内就必定行权从而形成必卖必买。按昨天收盘时的期权买盘价,经过计算发现稳稳的高卖(946)低买(836.2),年收益率达到13.13%。这个策略近乎于无风险套利:特斯拉1年后腰斩到500的可能性近乎为零;在加息行情下明年初涨破1400的可能性也极低。如券商app能识别此组合那保证金也会比较低。PS:如果你要更安全的put,也可以卖更高的put(比如最高的2475),但是收益率会降低(946/908=4.2%)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667590215376\">@期权小班长</a>原因何在?是不是值得研究下?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>发现特斯拉的深度价内期权组合的年收益率竟达13%!具体策略是:1、卖出23年1/20日到期的call@500;2、同时卖出同日到期的put@1400;到期日在500-1400价内就必定行权从而形成必卖必买。按昨天收盘时的期权买盘价,经过计算发现稳稳的高卖(946)低买(836.2),年收益率达到13.13%。这个策略近乎于无风险套利:特斯拉1年后腰斩到500的可能性近乎为零;在加息行情下明年初涨破1400的可能性也极低。如券商app能识别此组合那保证金也会比较低。PS:如果你要更安全的put,也可以卖更高的put(比如最高的2475),但是收益率会降低(946/908=4.2%)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667590215376\">@期权小班长</a>原因何在?是不是值得研究下?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$发现特斯拉的深度价内期权组合的年收益率竟达13%!具体策略是:1、卖出23年1/20日到期的call@500;2、同时卖出同日到期的put@1400;到期日在500-1400价内就必定行权从而形成必卖必买。按昨天收盘时的期权买盘价,经过计算发现稳稳的高卖(946)低买(836.2),年收益率达到13.13%。这个策略近乎于无风险套利:特斯拉1年后腰斩到500的可能性近乎为零;在加息行情下明年初涨破1400的可能性也极低。如券商app能识别此组合那保证金也会比较低。PS:如果你要更安全的put,也可以卖更高的put(比如最高的2475),但是收益率会降低(946/908=4.2%)@期权小班长原因何在?是不是值得研究下?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633892840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"content":"比较可惜的一点是,我之前卖了1年期的期权,发现不能和近期期权形成组合。另外深度价内期权流动性不太好,不知道两张深度能不能自动行权对冲,除此之外我觉得没什么太大问题","text":"比较可惜的一点是,我之前卖了1年期的期权,发现不能和近期期权形成组合。另外深度价内期权流动性不太好,不知道两张深度能不能自动行权对冲,除此之外我觉得没什么太大问题","html":"比较可惜的一点是,我之前卖了1年期的期权,发现不能和近期期权形成组合。另外深度价内期权流动性不太好,不知道两张深度能不能自动行权对冲,除此之外我觉得没什么太大问题"},{"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"content":"因为是卖方到期策略且是双向的组合策略,基本上不怕没有对手盘。到期日只要在价格区间内,任何方向的买方不行权都不用担心:行权日当天或以后可直接在市场买或卖正股备兑,买方放弃行权当得到完全的权利金(减去某个方向上的备兑亏损)时收益率会更高。最大亏损是发生在到期跌破500或涨破1400,有经验的同学应该知道该做啥止损吧(买或卖空正股做好备兑)。所以这个组合策略最重要的是准备好备兑金。","text":"因为是卖方到期策略且是双向的组合策略,基本上不怕没有对手盘。到期日只要在价格区间内,任何方向的买方不行权都不用担心:行权日当天或以后可直接在市场买或卖正股备兑,买方放弃行权当得到完全的权利金(减去某个方向上的备兑亏损)时收益率会更高。最大亏损是发生在到期跌破500或涨破1400,有经验的同学应该知道该做啥止损吧(买或卖空正股做好备兑)。所以这个组合策略最重要的是准备好备兑金。","html":"因为是卖方到期策略且是双向的组合策略,基本上不怕没有对手盘。到期日只要在价格区间内,任何方向的买方不行权都不用担心:行权日当天或以后可直接在市场买或卖正股备兑,买方放弃行权当得到完全的权利金(减去某个方向上的备兑亏损)时收益率会更高。最大亏损是发生在到期跌破500或涨破1400,有经验的同学应该知道该做啥止损吧(买或卖空正股做好备兑)。所以这个组合策略最重要的是准备好备兑金。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688893557,"gmtCreate":1657550399384,"gmtModify":1704867568134,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这把崩到哪?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>这把崩到哪?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$这把崩到哪?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688893557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497856541848999","authorId":"3497856541848999","name":"Ark大空头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e55ccc9acf86a93b7e31b0666f3b4d0e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3497856541848999","idStr":"3497856541848999"},"content":"估计上海又要封了😂我在上海正准备先回家呢,三月份想走没走被封两个半月。现在基本一天核酸一次,今天有六七十个,真怕那天突然多了就走不掉了。。。再说特斯拉二季度财报不会好,财报出会跌的,再抄底不迟,也躲过了七月份加息","text":"估计上海又要封了😂我在上海正准备先回家呢,三月份想走没走被封两个半月。现在基本一天核酸一次,今天有六七十个,真怕那天突然多了就走不掉了。。。再说特斯拉二季度财报不会好,财报出会跌的,再抄底不迟,也躲过了七月份加息","html":"估计上海又要封了😂我在上海正准备先回家呢,三月份想走没走被封两个半月。现在基本一天核酸一次,今天有六七十个,真怕那天突然多了就走不掉了。。。再说特斯拉二季度财报不会好,财报出会跌的,再抄底不迟,也躲过了七月份加息"},{"author":{"id":"3477127965946909","authorId":"3477127965946909","name":"LuckyHunterJia","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01f9ceb176a9599428ee58c1016725b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3477127965946909","idStr":"3477127965946909"},"content":"今天为啥要大跌??利好都不涨!???","text":"今天为啥要大跌??利好都不涨!???","html":"今天为啥要大跌??利好都不涨!???"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607102856,"gmtCreate":1639494599790,"gmtModify":1639494599790,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 特斯拉的合理估值,你们觉得是多少?200?400?500?700?800?900?1200?1500?3000?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 特斯拉的合理估值,你们觉得是多少?200?400?500?700?800?900?1200?1500?3000?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉的合理估值,你们觉得是多少?200?400?500?700?800?900?1200?1500?3000?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607102856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478212012303042","authorId":"3478212012303042","name":"请输入昵称哈","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3478212012303042","idStr":"3478212012303042"},"content":"少说点先去3000","text":"少说点先去3000","html":"少说点先去3000"},{"author":{"id":"3565444968543480","authorId":"3565444968543480","name":"小問ex","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72a7772288567c8169d7073ffcc7ffbe","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565444968543480","idStr":"3565444968543480"},"content":"Musk:世人都不懂特斯拉真正的價值","text":"Musk:世人都不懂特斯拉真正的價值","html":"Musk:世人都不懂特斯拉真正的價值"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623077639,"gmtCreate":1670946440721,"gmtModify":1670946441705,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>这么惨,可以抄底不,大佬们?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>这么惨,可以抄底不,大佬们?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这么惨,可以抄底不,大佬们?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623077639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3466304317562621","authorId":"3466304317562621","name":"tytyty","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3466304317562621","idStr":"3466304317562621"},"content":"可以,短抄,定止损,割肉,重复2-4","text":"可以,短抄,定止损,割肉,重复2-4","html":"可以,短抄,定止损,割肉,重复2-4"},{"author":{"id":"3565779873182513","authorId":"3565779873182513","name":"Widest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e848e194f86a1019b12907f98b072826","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3565779873182513","idStr":"3565779873182513"},"content":"低位换手大,坚决买入!","text":"低位换手大,坚决买入!","html":"低位换手大,坚决买入!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617667953,"gmtCreate":1654266454374,"gmtModify":1704859238552,"author":{"id":"3575695026604385","authorId":"3575695026604385","name":"未料胜先料败","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e8677352e7c66bc689e7dce846548c","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575695026604385","idStr":"3575695026604385"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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