燚哥的个人主页 - 老虎社区

燚哥

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IP属地：湖北

92关注

6粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2021-02-11

$苹果(AAPL)$苹果会涨到500美金

2021-03-01

游戏驿站gme。就这样结束了吗？

2021-03-13

我90就out了。120的成本

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-23

$苹果(AAPL)$快来抄底苹果啊，兄弟们

2021-03-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥会好起来的

2021-02-21

$苹果(AAPL)$大苹果马上起飞目标500美刀

2021-02-20

$AMC院线(AMC)$亚马逊什么时候来啊

2021-03-12

这些日子的新股都是垃圾股

2021-03-02

还不错

@英为财情:“牛市女皇”、ARK Invest创始人警告美股回调风险

2021-03-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥。啥时候起飞

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Wood）上周在接受媒体采访时表示，如果收益率继续“大幅”上升，股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称：“我的确认为，如果利率急剧上涨，我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出，“过去20年来，我发现了一件有趣的事情，标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是，大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内，这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为，正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定，将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长，那这就是名义增长率的倒数，也是触顶的位置。我认为，估值会重设，市场会感到恐惧。” 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&nbsp; 首先，长期关注我的朋友应该知道，我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点，2月和8月，无论哪个月份，只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题，当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益，所以请做好风险考量，这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入，也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率，这个直播时再解释，总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高，美股的压力就越大，反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据，这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 &nbsp;美债收益率代表着无风险利率，无风险利率升高会影响股票估值。譬如说，一个公司年净利润率10%，在无风险利率为零的市场，那它的估值就会按10%的利润率来评估，但在无风险利率为3%的市场，那它的估值就会按10%-3%=7%的利润率来评估，从估值角度，后者比前者的估值少30%，那股价肯定会有影响的。 &nbsp;当下市场，是市场担忧通胀，预期美联储政策会转向所导致的应激反应。但当前根本未看到有任何政策层面上的转向，所以下跌幅度目前比较难评估。 所以当下策略层面的考虑更为重要。 首先仍有持仓股票的朋友，适当减仓。 第二，如果坚持长期看涨的朋友，请尽量持有传统道指类的股票，新科技类股票暂回避，逻辑在年度前瞻帖子里说过，疫情修复后的道纳比价修复。 第三，打算做空的朋友，请使用期权，例如SPX的看跌期权或者股指期货期权等。说不定周末1.9万亿方案投票通过后，市场有所反弹，期权方式损失确定收益易放大。 最后，喜欢做对","listText":"美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。3月4日晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 &nbsp; 首先，长期关注我的朋友应该知道，我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点，2月和8月，无论哪个月份，只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题，当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益，所以请做好风险考量，这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入，也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率，这个直播时再解释，总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高，美股的压力就越大，反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据，这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 &nbsp;美债收益率代表着无风险利率，无风险利率升高会影响股票估值。譬如说，一个公司年净利润率10%，在无风险利率为零的市场，那它的估值就会按10%的利润率来评估，但在无风险利率为3%的市场，那它的估值就会按10%-3%=7%的利润率来评估，从估值角度，后者比前者的估值少30%，那股价肯定会有影响的。 &nbsp;当下市场，是市场担忧通胀，预期美联储政策会转向所导致的应激反应。但当前根本未看到有任何政策层面上的转向，所以下跌幅度目前比较难评估。 所以当下策略层面的考虑更为重要。 首先仍有持仓股票的朋友，适当减仓。 第二，如果坚持长期看涨的朋友，请尽量持有传统道指类的股票，新科技类股票暂回避，逻辑在年度前瞻帖子里说过，疫情修复后的道纳比价修复。 第三，打算做空的朋友，请使用期权，例如SPX的看跌期权或者股指期货期权等。说不定周末1.9万亿方案投票通过后，市场有所反弹，期权方式损失确定收益易放大。 最后，喜欢做对","text":"美股这两天大涨大跌，相信很多朋友不知道如何处理。3月4日晚8点，我有场直播讲座和大家聊聊美股指的相关情况，届时会有针对通胀率，美债利率和美股关系的更详尽的解读。现在先给大家聊聊当下紧急的情况。 首先，长期关注我的朋友应该知道，我反复强调过今年的两个重要时间点，2月和8月，无论哪个月份，只要标普500指数收盘价跌穿20日均线就要做对冲或者离场的准备。这是风险收益率的衡量问题，当下的跌穿20日线后风险明显高于收益，所以请做好风险考量，这时候宁愿等指数反弹上去创新高再重新投入，也比盲目持仓要好得多。 什么是美债收益率，这个直播时再解释，总之现在全市场都在盯着这个数据。只要这个数据继续升高，美股的压力就越大，反之美股就反弹甚至继续新高。所以美股指的短期方向就根据这个收益率来判断即可。当然简单点就用20日均线作为评估依据，这个是我认为最简单而高效的评估方式。 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Invest创始人警告美股回调风险","htmlText":"被称为“女版巴菲特”、“牛市女皇”的明星投资者、ARK投资创始人凯瑟琳·伍德（Cathie Wood）上周在接受媒体采访时表示，如果收益率继续“大幅”上升，股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称：“我的确认为，如果利率急剧上涨，我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出，“过去20年来，我发现了一件有趣的事情，标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是，大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内，这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为，正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定，将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长，那这就是名义增长率的倒数，也是触顶的位置。我认为，估值会重设，市场会感到恐惧。” 伍德表示。美国十年期国债收益率周一上涨2.90%，至1.384%。","listText":"被称为“女版巴菲特”、“牛市女皇”的明星投资者、ARK投资创始人凯瑟琳·伍德（Cathie Wood）上周在接受媒体采访时表示，如果收益率继续“大幅”上升，股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称：“我的确认为，如果利率急剧上涨，我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出，“过去20年来，我发现了一件有趣的事情，标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是，大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内，这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为，正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定，将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长，那这就是名义增长率的倒数，也是触顶的位置。我认为，估值会重设，市场会感到恐惧。” 伍德表示。美国十年期国债收益率周一上涨2.90%，至1.384%。","text":"被称为“女版巴菲特”、“牛市女皇”的明星投资者、ARK投资创始人凯瑟琳·伍德（Cathie Wood）上周在接受媒体采访时表示，如果收益率继续“大幅”上升，股票的回调风险将越来越高。伍德称：“我的确认为，如果利率急剧上涨，我们会看到估值将被重估。”她指出，“过去20年来，我发现了一件有趣的事情，标普的远期市盈率往往会在20至25倍左右达到顶峰。我认为原因是，大多数投资组合经理或者量化研究人员预计正常名义GDP增长率应在4-5%的范围内，这应该是长期利率的正常水平。我们认为，正常的GDP增长可能更接近3%。”“如果长期利率趋于在这个水平稳定，将20至25倍的市盈率看作1比4%-5%的增长，那这就是名义增长率的倒数，也是触顶的位置。我认为，估值会重设，市场会感到恐惧。” 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