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08-27

赶紧撤退

02-24

请问外资进场了吗？还是国内存量资金？

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09:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：是时候实施“A计划”了，估值有约10%的上升空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513764698","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为在估值优势和政策预期支撑下，A股有望在未来三个月内反超港股，预计将有2%的超额回报。此外，A股相对H股的估值溢价已从三个月前的34%收窄至目前的14%。如果回升至过去一年的平均水平，意味着A股估值有约10%的上升空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>港股大涨后， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为A股有望迎来追赶反弹。</p><p>自DeepSeek-R1发布以来，投资者对中国增长和股票表现的乐观情绪有所上升。据高盛，自1月低点以来，MSCI中国指数已上涨26%，其中以恒生科技指数为代表的中概互联网板块上涨了31%，而A股仅温和上涨7%。</p><p>高盛在2月23日报告中指出，当A股与H股收益差距超过15%时，市场领导地位有95%的概率出现反转。基于此，<strong>高盛认为在估值优势和政策预期支撑下，A股有望在未来三个月内迎来追赶反弹，预计将有2%的超额回报。</strong></p><p>此外，<strong>A股相对H股的估值溢价已从三个月前的34%收窄至目前的14%。如果回升至过去一年的平均水平，意味着A股估值有约10%的上升空间。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3152865460\">A股估值优势显现</h2><p>高盛的A-H市场轮动模型表明，未来三个月内市场领导权可能会发生轮动，预计A股将有2%的超额回报。</p><p>过去三个月A股与H股的回报差距扩大至15%，达到历史范围的99%分位数，这是自2018年以来第二大回报差距——仅次于2022年11月至2023年2月期间MSCI中国指数超过CSI300指数的30%的超额回报。</p><p>高盛表示，历史上，A股与H股的3个月相对回报通常在±10%范围内波动，当相对回报超出这一范围时，有很高的概率发生反转。经验表明，当A股与H股的回报差距超过15%时，市场领导低位有95%的概率发生逆转。</p><p>在高盛考虑的六个关键宏观和市场因素（经济增长、宏观经济政策、法规/地缘政治、公司基本面、估值和流动性/情绪）中，A股的估值较低和潜在的宏观经济政策刺激被认为是A股追赶上涨的关键驱动因素。</p><p><strong>据高盛，MSCI中国和CSI300的市盈率分别为11.5倍和13.1倍，AH估值溢价已从三个月前的34%收窄至14%，如果反弹至过去一年的平均水平，这表明A股的估值重估空间约为10%。</strong></p><p>除了估值优势外，高盛认为，支持性的国内政策也将利好A股表现。</p><p>高盛经济学家预计，即将召开的“两会”将重申扩张性财政政策立场，并提供更多实施细节，这可能推动A股回报超过H股，因为A股对政策声明的敏感性更高，且行业分布更广泛。在资金流动方面，随着全球基金进一步增加在中国的配置，H股可能会继续受到青睐，而如果国内零售投资者更多地参与，A股可能会得到支持。</p><h2 id=\"id_1093731763\">国内散户投资者参与度提高，有利于A股反弹</h2><p>从资金流向看，全球对冲基金目前对中国股票的配置为8.2%，虽较上月提高约1个百分点，但仍低于去年10月9.8%的峰值水平。全球主动型基金对中国的配置仍处于6%左右的历史低位。这意味着海外资金仍有进一步加仓的空间，可能继续支撑H股表现。</p><p>而A股受全球资金流向影响较小。如果国内散户投资者参与度提高，将有利于A股反弹。强劲的南向资金流入和对软件/人工智能应用相关股票的融资买入，表明在近期AI发展的推动下，在岸投资者信心可能已有所提升。</p><p>基于以上分析，高盛维持对中国A股和H股的超配评级，但预计A股有望迎来追赶反弹，缩小与H股的收益差距。具体来看:</p><blockquote><p><strong>小盘股可能表现更佳</strong>。STAR50、创业板指数和中证1000等小型股指数，由于对人工智能相关行业的敞口更高，且散户持股比例较高，有望从情绪改善中受益。</p><p>大盘股指数中，<strong>新推出的中证500指数可能优于沪深300指数</strong>，因为前者对科技和创新行业的敞口更高。</p><p>尽管整体偏好A股，但高盛认为恒生科技指数成分股可能继续受益于人工智能带来的盈利上调。</p></blockquote><p>从行业角度来看，AI相关的硬件和软件技术公司在离岸市场在过去一个月内上涨了20-40%，而A股同行则相对滞后。电信服务和医疗保健股票受到内地投资者的青睐，分别上涨了22%和10%。</p><p>高盛预计随着投资者扩大对落后行业的配置，行业表现差距可能会缩小，建议关注零售、科技硬件和媒体娱乐等近期A股相对H股跌幅较大的行业，这些板块存在追赶反弹的机会。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：是时候实施“A计划”了，估值有约10%的上升空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-24 09:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741705><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>港股大涨后， 高盛认为A股有望迎来追赶反弹。自DeepSeek-R1发布以来，投资者对中国增长和股票表现的乐观情绪有所上升。据高盛，自1月低点以来，MSCI中国指数已上涨26%，其中以恒生科技指数为代表的中概互联网板块上涨了31%，而A股仅温和上涨7%。高盛在2月23日报告中指出，当A股与H股收益差距超过15%时，市场领导地位有95%的概率出现反转。基于此，高盛认为在估值优势和政策预期支撑下，A股...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741705\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657d0e376b91473c622e721d23260135","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","000905.SH":"中证500"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741705","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2513764698","content_text":"港股大涨后， 高盛认为A股有望迎来追赶反弹。自DeepSeek-R1发布以来，投资者对中国增长和股票表现的乐观情绪有所上升。据高盛，自1月低点以来，MSCI中国指数已上涨26%，其中以恒生科技指数为代表的中概互联网板块上涨了31%，而A股仅温和上涨7%。高盛在2月23日报告中指出，当A股与H股收益差距超过15%时，市场领导地位有95%的概率出现反转。基于此，高盛认为在估值优势和政策预期支撑下，A股有望在未来三个月内迎来追赶反弹，预计将有2%的超额回报。此外，A股相对H股的估值溢价已从三个月前的34%收窄至目前的14%。如果回升至过去一年的平均水平，意味着A股估值有约10%的上升空间。A股估值优势显现高盛的A-H市场轮动模型表明，未来三个月内市场领导权可能会发生轮动，预计A股将有2%的超额回报。过去三个月A股与H股的回报差距扩大至15%，达到历史范围的99%分位数，这是自2018年以来第二大回报差距——仅次于2022年11月至2023年2月期间MSCI中国指数超过CSI300指数的30%的超额回报。高盛表示，历史上，A股与H股的3个月相对回报通常在±10%范围内波动，当相对回报超出这一范围时，有很高的概率发生反转。经验表明，当A股与H股的回报差距超过15%时，市场领导低位有95%的概率发生逆转。在高盛考虑的六个关键宏观和市场因素（经济增长、宏观经济政策、法规/地缘政治、公司基本面、估值和流动性/情绪）中，A股的估值较低和潜在的宏观经济政策刺激被认为是A股追赶上涨的关键驱动因素。据高盛，MSCI中国和CSI300的市盈率分别为11.5倍和13.1倍，AH估值溢价已从三个月前的34%收窄至14%，如果反弹至过去一年的平均水平，这表明A股的估值重估空间约为10%。除了估值优势外，高盛认为，支持性的国内政策也将利好A股表现。高盛经济学家预计，即将召开的“两会”将重申扩张性财政政策立场，并提供更多实施细节，这可能推动A股回报超过H股，因为A股对政策声明的敏感性更高，且行业分布更广泛。在资金流动方面，随着全球基金进一步增加在中国的配置，H股可能会继续受到青睐，而如果国内零售投资者更多地参与，A股可能会得到支持。国内散户投资者参与度提高，有利于A股反弹从资金流向看，全球对冲基金目前对中国股票的配置为8.2%，虽较上月提高约1个百分点，但仍低于去年10月9.8%的峰值水平。全球主动型基金对中国的配置仍处于6%左右的历史低位。这意味着海外资金仍有进一步加仓的空间，可能继续支撑H股表现。而A股受全球资金流向影响较小。如果国内散户投资者参与度提高，将有利于A股反弹。强劲的南向资金流入和对软件/人工智能应用相关股票的融资买入，表明在近期AI发展的推动下，在岸投资者信心可能已有所提升。基于以上分析，高盛维持对中国A股和H股的超配评级，但预计A股有望迎来追赶反弹，缩小与H股的收益差距。具体来看:小盘股可能表现更佳。STAR50、创业板指数和中证1000等小型股指数，由于对人工智能相关行业的敞口更高，且散户持股比例较高，有望从情绪改善中受益。大盘股指数中，新推出的中证500指数可能优于沪深300指数，因为前者对科技和创新行业的敞口更高。尽管整体偏好A股，但高盛认为恒生科技指数成分股可能继续受益于人工智能带来的盈利上调。从行业角度来看，AI相关的硬件和软件技术公司在离岸市场在过去一个月内上涨了20-40%，而A股同行则相对滞后。电信服务和医疗保健股票受到内地投资者的青睐，分别上涨了22%和10%。高盛预计随着投资者扩大对落后行业的配置，行业表现差距可能会缩小，建议关注零售、科技硬件和媒体娱乐等近期A股相对H股跌幅较大的行业，这些板块存在追赶反弹的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":1.1,"000905.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":472121680249016,"gmtCreate":1756296228760,"gmtModify":1756296691972,"author":{"id":"3575780998149096","authorId":"3575780998149096","name":"阿朵卡米","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575780998149096","authorIdStr":"3575780998149096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赶紧撤退","listText":"赶紧撤退","text":"赶紧撤退","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472121680249016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406922252169552,"gmtCreate":1740372626239,"gmtModify":1740373931927,"author":{"id":"3575780998149096","authorId":"3575780998149096","name":"阿朵卡米","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575780998149096","authorIdStr":"3575780998149096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问外资进场了吗？还是国内存量资金？","listText":"请问外资进场了吗？还是国内存量资金？","text":"请问外资进场了吗？还是国内存量资金？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406922252169552","repostId":"2513764698","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}