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2021-08-08

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2021-08-07

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2021-08-06

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-08-06

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Why automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote>

2021-08-05

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2021-08-04

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2021-08-04

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2021-08-04

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7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote>

2021-06-29

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2021-06-27

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2021-06-27

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Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

2021-06-27

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Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>

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11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196684672","media":"Barrons","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% r","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司预计将于周六公布强劲的第二季度业绩，其中账面价值增长 7%，营业利润增长 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）在第二季度可能受益于其约 3000 亿美元股票投资组合价值的 10%，其中约一半的升值是由伯克希尔持有的最大股权苹果（AAPL）股价上涨 12% 推动的，该公司的股价超过 1200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>这一对投资组合收益的估计来自 Edward Jones 分析师 James Shanahan，他对该股给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has&nbsp;ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在最近几个季度加强了回购计划，投资者将关注账面价值、收益和股票回购。在此期间的回购总额应约为 65 亿美元，与第一季度的 66 亿美元一致。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing&nbsp;that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.</p><p><blockquote>这一对第二季度回购的估计是基于巴菲特在 6 月下旬向比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会和其他慈善机构捐赠股票后提交的 ona 文件。</blockquote></p><p> The filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.<i>Barron’s</i>calculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，截至 6 月 21 日，巴菲特在伯克希尔的持股比例为 15.8%。<i>巴伦</i>根据该数字计算该日期的股票数量，并将其与 3 月 31 日的流通股进行比较，以估算第二季度的回购量。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在 2021 年一个季度的回购量约为流通股的 1%，公司估值约为 6400 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&amp;P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on&nbsp;Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔 A 类股周四上涨 0.3%，至 421,306 美元，今年以来已上涨近 21%，超过了上涨约 18% 的标普500指数。伯克希尔流动性更强的 B 类股票周四上涨 0.5%，至 280.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones 的 Shanahan 估计，6 月 30 日每股 A 类股票的账面价值为 314,000 美元，比 3 月 31 日的水平上涨 7%。这意味着伯克希尔股票目前的交易价格约为 6 月 30 日估计账面价值的 1.3 倍，略低于五年平均市净率。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第二季度的盈利增长可能得益于其最大的单一部门伯灵顿北圣达菲公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe）以及众多工业和住房相关业务。根据 FactSet 的数据，伯克希尔的税后营业利润预计将增长 10%，达到每股 B 类股票 2.51 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有人造房屋制造商 Clayton Homes、地毯和其他地板生产商 Shaw Industries 以及油漆制造商 Benjamin Moore。伯灵顿北方铁路公司在美国西部的竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司（UNP）最近公布的第二季度经营利润比去年同期增长了 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been&nbsp;Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将有兴趣了解伯克希尔是否是第二季度股票的净买家。巴菲特在最近几个季度看到的机会有限，伯克希尔在第一季度净卖出了 30 亿美元的股票。他最近几个季度最大的收购是威瑞森通信公司（VZ）。伯克希尔拥有这家电信公司约 80 亿美元的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司预计将于周六公布强劲的第二季度业绩，其中账面价值增长 7%，营业利润增长 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）在第二季度可能受益于其约 3000 亿美元股票投资组合价值的 10%，其中约一半的升值是由伯克希尔持有的最大股权苹果（AAPL）股价上涨 12% 推动的，该公司的股价超过 1200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>这一对投资组合收益的估计来自 Edward Jones 分析师 James Shanahan，他对该股给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has&nbsp;ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在最近几个季度加强了回购计划，投资者将关注账面价值、收益和股票回购。在此期间的回购总额应约为 65 亿美元，与第一季度的 66 亿美元一致。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing&nbsp;that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.</p><p><blockquote>这一对第二季度回购的估计是基于巴菲特在 6 月下旬向比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会和其他慈善机构捐赠股票后提交的 ona 文件。</blockquote></p><p> The filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.<i>Barron’s</i>calculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，截至 6 月 21 日，巴菲特在伯克希尔的持股比例为 15.8%。<i>巴伦</i>根据该数字计算该日期的股票数量，并将其与 3 月 31 日的流通股进行比较，以估算第二季度的回购量。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在 2021 年一个季度的回购量约为流通股的 1%，公司估值约为 6400 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&amp;P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on&nbsp;Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔 A 类股周四上涨 0.3%，至 421,306 美元，今年以来已上涨近 21%，超过了上涨约 18% 的标普500指数。伯克希尔流动性更强的 B 类股票周四上涨 0.5%，至 280.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones 的 Shanahan 估计，6 月 30 日每股 A 类股票的账面价值为 314,000 美元，比 3 月 31 日的水平上涨 7%。这意味着伯克希尔股票目前的交易价格约为 6 月 30 日估计账面价值的 1.3 倍，略低于五年平均市净率。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第二季度的盈利增长可能得益于其最大的单一部门伯灵顿北圣达菲公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe）以及众多工业和住房相关业务。根据 FactSet 的数据，伯克希尔的税后营业利润预计将增长 10%，达到每股 B 类股票 2.51 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有人造房屋制造商 Clayton Homes、地毯和其他地板生产商 Shaw Industries 以及油漆制造商 Benjamin Moore。伯灵顿北方铁路公司在美国西部的竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司（UNP）最近公布的第二季度经营利润比去年同期增长了 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been&nbsp;Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将有兴趣了解伯克希尔是否是第二季度股票的净买家。巴菲特在最近几个季度看到的机会有限，伯克希尔在第一季度净卖出了 30 亿美元的股票。他最近几个季度最大的收购是威瑞森通信公司（VZ）。伯克希尔拥有这家电信公司约 80 亿美元的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-is-reporting-earnings-on-saturday-heres-what-to-expect-51628176595?mod=hp_DAY_9\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-is-reporting-earnings-on-saturday-heres-what-to-expect-51628176595?mod=hp_DAY_9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196684672","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.\nBerkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.\nThis estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.\nInvestors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.\nThis estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.\nThe filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.Barron’scalculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.\nBerkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.\nBerkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on Thursday.\nShanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.\nBerkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.\nBerkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.\nInvestors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893041322,"gmtCreate":1628224183766,"gmtModify":1633752431046,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893041322","repostId":"1193751771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193751771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222237,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193751771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193751771","media":"yahoo finance","summary":"When President Obama ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in thei","content":"<p>When President Obama&nbsp;ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and&nbsp;locked in the new rules, with no industry input.</p><p><blockquote>当奥巴马总统在2012年提高燃油经济性标准时，一些汽车制造商悄悄地挖掘他们的轮胎。到2025年，新规则将燃油效率要求提高了近一倍，迫使昂贵的新技术迅速采用。如果该技术成熟得不够快，2018 年的中期审查本应提供一个出口。但当唐纳德·特朗普在2016年赢得总统大选时，奥巴马提前了最后期限，并锁定了新规则，没有行业的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency,&nbsp;Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump&nbsp;sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.</p><p><blockquote>被回避的汽车行业向特朗普请求救济，并得到了救济。就任总统两个月后，特朗普重启了中途审查，2020年特朗普大幅降低了2025年的目标。特朗普还试图阻止加利福尼亚州和其他二十几个州将自己的里程标准设定得高于联邦水平。这导致了行业的分裂，一些汽车制造商站在特朗普一边，另一些则站在加州一边。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统现在正在取消特朗普的取消政策，并再次推动大幅提高燃油经济性。但他这样做是在汽车制造商更多的合作下进行的，而奥巴马则没有这样的优势： 电动汽车比九年前走得更远，各大汽车制造商都在争相将电动汽车推向市场。这使得汽车制造商现在更容易削减其车队的排放，同时具有讽刺意味的是，这使得政府能够放宽仍使用汽油的车辆的效率目标。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Automakers are on board</b></h3> A new Biden executive order sets a target for up to&nbsp;50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>汽车制造商也参与其中</b></h3>拜登的一项新行政命令设定了到 2030 年销售的所有新车中高达 50% 为电动汽车的目标，这意味着它们要么是全插电式、同时配备燃气发动机和电动机的混合动力汽车，要么是氢动力汽车。请注意，这是一个 “目标 ”，而不是要求。拜登的目标与汽车制造商已经宣布的目标基本一致，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>目标是到 2035 年完全淘汰汽油和柴油动力汽车。未能达到目标的处罚？没什么。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1af6cf6099a51f8b7b2be1a35f29a84\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>A sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2021年7月21日星期三上午，宾夕法尼亚州斯普林镇希尔顿酒店惠庭套房酒店的ChargePoint车辆（EV）充电站上写着“仅限电动汽车充电”的标志。（图片来源：Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle，Getty Images）</i></blockquote></p><p> Biden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump&nbsp;lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that&nbsp;would require a 3.7% annual improvement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还将开始将汽油动力汽车的燃油经济性标准提高到特朗普水平以上。奥巴马的规定要求燃油经济性每年提高约5%。特朗普将这一比例下调至1.5%。据报道，拜登将提出新规则，要求每年提高 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> It will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">Volvo AB</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and Jeep-Chrysler parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.</p><p><blockquote>制定管理燃油经济性提高的联邦法规需要时间，但与之前围绕燃油经济性提高的斗争相比，汽车行业似乎不太可能试图在幕后淡化这一点。七家汽车制造商——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">巴伐利亚发动机厂股份公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">大众汽车公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">沃尔沃AB</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和吉普-克莱斯勒母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>-提供白宫在宣布拜登新的电动汽车目标时分发的支持性声明。“通用汽车、福特和 Stellantis 异口同声地说：”我们期待与拜登政府合作.制定政策，以实现这些雄心勃勃的目标。汽车制造商并不经常联手称赞联邦新法规。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.</p><p><blockquote>对汽车制造商来说，还有一个巨大的甜头：数十亿美元的联邦支出支持电动汽车的发展。国会通过的两党基础设施法案包括 75 亿美元用于帮助建设电动汽车充电站。拜登希望在清洁汽车税收抵免、电池厂补贴、校车电气化和其他举措上追加超过 1500 亿美元的支出。国会可能不会提供所有这些支出，但即使其中一部分也会是支持电动汽车发展的意外之财，如果没有政府的巨额援助，电动汽车的发展风险会很大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3cdc7ae94763d9e64dee84b0bcdfeb\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>加利福尼亚州凯特尔曼市的超级充电站是加利福尼亚州圣华金谷的一个电动汽车充电站。照片拍摄于2021年7月12日。（卡罗琳·科尔/洛杉矶时报，盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction occurs.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府和汽车行业之间关系缓和的一个迹象是环保组织的批评，他们希望拜登能走得更远。在为拜登即将推翻特朗普规则喝彩的同时，一些团体认为他的行动太慢了。“倡导组织 Evergreen Action 在一份声明中说：”设定到 2030 年电动汽车销量达到 40%-50% 的宏伟目标是远远不够的。“拜登政府应.推动到2030年实现100%的电动汽车销量”。汽油动力汽车是一种濒临灭绝的物种，只是灭绝发生的时间问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When President Obama&nbsp;ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and&nbsp;locked in the new rules, with no industry input.</p><p><blockquote>当奥巴马总统在2012年提高燃油经济性标准时，一些汽车制造商悄悄地挖掘他们的轮胎。到2025年，新规则将燃油效率要求提高了近一倍，迫使昂贵的新技术迅速采用。如果该技术成熟得不够快，2018 年的中期审查本应提供一个出口。但当唐纳德·特朗普在2016年赢得总统大选时，奥巴马提前了最后期限，并锁定了新规则，没有行业的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency,&nbsp;Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump&nbsp;sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.</p><p><blockquote>被回避的汽车行业向特朗普请求救济，并得到了救济。就任总统两个月后，特朗普重启了中途审查，2020年特朗普大幅降低了2025年的目标。特朗普还试图阻止加利福尼亚州和其他二十几个州将自己的里程标准设定得高于联邦水平。这导致了行业的分裂，一些汽车制造商站在特朗普一边，另一些则站在加州一边。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统现在正在取消特朗普的取消政策，并再次推动大幅提高燃油经济性。但他这样做是在汽车制造商更多的合作下进行的，而奥巴马则没有这样的优势： 电动汽车比九年前走得更远，各大汽车制造商都在争相将电动汽车推向市场。这使得汽车制造商现在更容易削减其车队的排放，同时具有讽刺意味的是，这使得政府能够放宽仍使用汽油的车辆的效率目标。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Automakers are on board</b></h3> A new Biden executive order sets a target for up to&nbsp;50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>汽车制造商也参与其中</b></h3>拜登的一项新行政命令设定了到 2030 年销售的所有新车中高达 50% 为电动汽车的目标，这意味着它们要么是全插电式、同时配备燃气发动机和电动机的混合动力汽车，要么是氢动力汽车。请注意，这是一个 “目标 ”，而不是要求。拜登的目标与汽车制造商已经宣布的目标基本一致，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>目标是到 2035 年完全淘汰汽油和柴油动力汽车。未能达到目标的处罚？没什么。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1af6cf6099a51f8b7b2be1a35f29a84\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>A sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2021年7月21日星期三上午，宾夕法尼亚州斯普林镇希尔顿酒店惠庭套房酒店的ChargePoint车辆（EV）充电站上写着“仅限电动汽车充电”的标志。（图片来源：Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle，Getty Images）</i></blockquote></p><p> Biden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump&nbsp;lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that&nbsp;would require a 3.7% annual improvement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还将开始将汽油动力汽车的燃油经济性标准提高到特朗普水平以上。奥巴马的规定要求燃油经济性每年提高约5%。特朗普将这一比例下调至1.5%。据报道，拜登将提出新规则，要求每年提高 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> It will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">Volvo AB</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and Jeep-Chrysler parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.</p><p><blockquote>制定管理燃油经济性提高的联邦法规需要时间，但与之前围绕燃油经济性提高的斗争相比，汽车行业似乎不太可能试图在幕后淡化这一点。七家汽车制造商——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">巴伐利亚发动机厂股份公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">大众汽车公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">沃尔沃AB</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和吉普-克莱斯勒母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>-提供白宫在宣布拜登新的电动汽车目标时分发的支持性声明。“通用汽车、福特和 Stellantis 异口同声地说：”我们期待与拜登政府合作.制定政策，以实现这些雄心勃勃的目标。汽车制造商并不经常联手称赞联邦新法规。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.</p><p><blockquote>对汽车制造商来说，还有一个巨大的甜头：数十亿美元的联邦支出支持电动汽车的发展。国会通过的两党基础设施法案包括 75 亿美元用于帮助建设电动汽车充电站。拜登希望在清洁汽车税收抵免、电池厂补贴、校车电气化和其他举措上追加超过 1500 亿美元的支出。国会可能不会提供所有这些支出，但即使其中一部分也会是支持电动汽车发展的意外之财，如果没有政府的巨额援助，电动汽车的发展风险会很大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3cdc7ae94763d9e64dee84b0bcdfeb\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>加利福尼亚州凯特尔曼市的超级充电站是加利福尼亚州圣华金谷的一个电动汽车充电站。照片拍摄于2021年7月12日。（卡罗琳·科尔/洛杉矶时报，盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction occurs.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府和汽车行业之间关系缓和的一个迹象是环保组织的批评，他们希望拜登能走得更远。在为拜登即将推翻特朗普规则喝彩的同时，一些团体认为他的行动太慢了。“倡导组织 Evergreen Action 在一份声明中说：”设定到 2030 年电动汽车销量达到 40%-50% 的宏伟目标是远远不够的。“拜登政府应.推动到2030年实现100%的电动汽车销量”。汽油动力汽车是一种濒临灭绝的物种，只是灭绝发生的时间问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-automakers-like-biden-more-than-obama-154815643.html\">yahoo finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-automakers-like-biden-more-than-obama-154815643.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193751771","content_text":"When President Obama ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and locked in the new rules, with no industry input.\nThe shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency, Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.\nPresident Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.\nAutomakers are on board\nA new Biden executive order sets a target for up to 50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as General Motors' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.\nA sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)\nBiden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that would require a 3.7% annual improvement.\nIt will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Honda, Volkswagen AG, Volvo AB, General Motors, Ford and Jeep-Chrysler parent Stellantis NV—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.\nThere’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.\nThe Tesla Motors Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\nOne sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction occurs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890224690,"gmtCreate":1628121055810,"gmtModify":1633753475938,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890224690","repostId":"2157483930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807706440,"gmtCreate":1628054790080,"gmtModify":1633753982986,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807706440","repostId":"2156412186","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807706598,"gmtCreate":1628054777314,"gmtModify":1633753983108,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807706598","repostId":"1124524228","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807706656,"gmtCreate":1628054763475,"gmtModify":1633753983330,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807706656","repostId":"1122614377","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122614377","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628047303,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122614377?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122614377","media":"TheStreet","summary":"These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are tradin","content":"<p>These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在实现出色的盈利和股息增长，并且其股票的交易估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> Last month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，我开始了一个新系列，将对股息雷达股票的选择进行排名，并提出排名最高的七只股票供考虑。股息雷达跟踪在美国交易所交易的股票，股息连续增加至少五年。</blockquote></p><p> Each month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>每个月，我都会考虑使用不同的屏幕来缩小 750 多只股息雷达股票的范围。Screens 将重点关注股息增长投资的各个方面，例如股息收益率、股息增长率和股票估值。</blockquote></p><p> This month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>本月，我筛选了过去十年盈利增长异常的公司股票。此外，我筛选了估值合理的股票，并要求 5 年期成本收益率 (YoC) 至少为 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Screening and Ranking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>筛选和排名</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和盈利增长是股息和股息增长的基础。公司可以使用债务来支付股息，例如当收益暂时不足以支付股息时。但最终，这笔债务将不得不从收益中偿还，这大概也有希望足以偿还债务和支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio Insight&nbsp;provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:</p><p><blockquote>Portfolio Insight 提供盈利和盈利增长数据，我们可以对其进行监控，以了解公司继续支付和增加股息的能力。在本月的文章中，我考虑了不同时间段的非美国通用会计准则每股收益复合年增长率（CAGR）。以下是具体的筛选公式：</blockquote></p><p> <b>NG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NG EPS 1年≥10%且NG EPS 3年≥10%且NG EPS 5年≥10%且NG EPS 10年≥10%</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还筛选了估值合理的股票。我所说的“合理”是基于我的质量/估值矩阵，该矩阵对质量较高的股票给予优惠待遇。从本质上讲，我愿意为质量最高的股票支付少量溢价，而要求为质量较低的股票支付更大的折扣：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d7af9e75bd202d2d9cabb79d04964c\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I calculate&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.</p><p><blockquote>我计算<b>低价购买</b>基于此质量/估值矩阵的相对于我的公允价值【FV】估计的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I screened for stocks with a&nbsp;5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我筛选了5年期成本收益率[YoC]高于3%的股票。该指标结合了远期收益率和 5 年期股息增长率 [DGR]，以确定在保持 DGR 不变的情况下，投资五年后您的股息相对于今天的股价会是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月放映的总体总结：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Exceptional earnings for at least ten years</li>  <li>Reasonable current valuation</li>  <li>Reasonable future dividend income</li> </ol> The latest&nbsp;Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>至少十年的卓越收益</li><li>合理现行估值</li><li>合理的未来股息收入</li></ol>最新的股息雷达（日期为 2021 年 7 月 30 日）包含 762 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> Applying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).</p><p><blockquote>应用第一个（相当严格的）筛选将列表减少到只有87个候选人。（其中，只有20个通过了第二个屏幕，只有11个也通过了第三个屏幕）。</blockquote></p><p> I ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via&nbsp;DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:</p><p><blockquote>我通过对候选人的质量分数（通过DVK质量快照确定）按降序排序来对他们进行排名，并依次使用以下指标来打破联系：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Simply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores</li>  <li><i>S&amp;P Credit Ratings</i></li>  <li>Dividend Yield</li> </ul> The tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Simply Safe 股息安全评分</li><li><i>标准普尔信用评级</i></li><li>股息收益率</li></ul>下表按排名显示了前七只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8 月排名前 7 的股息增长股</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月排名靠前的股息增长型股票：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74ac455b7df108e6e1de77ba837a01c\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I own the six highlighted stocks in my&nbsp;DivGro portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我拥有 DivGro 投资组合中的六只突出显示的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (<b>Years</b>), the dividend&nbsp;<b>Yield</b>&nbsp;for a recent share&nbsp;<b>Price</b>, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (<b>5-Yr DGR</b>). The&nbsp;<i>Chowder Number</i>(<b>CDN</b>) and 5-year YoC (<b>5-Yr YoC</b>) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (<b>5-Yr TTR</b>) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我提供了一个表格，其中包含股息增长投资者感兴趣的关键指标，包括股息连续增长（<b>年</b>），股息<b>产量</b>对于最近的股份<b>价格</b>以及5年期股息增长率（<b>5年DGR</b>).这个<i>杂烩数</i>(<b>CDN</b>）和5年YoC（<b>5年</b>）是衡量股票未来总回报率和股息收入前景的指标，而 5 年追踪总回报率（<b>5年TTR</b>) 是衡量股票过去五年表现的指标。</blockquote></p><p> I also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (<b>Qual</b>), as well as my FV estimate (<b>Fair Value</b>) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (<b>–Disc/+Prem</b>) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;price.</p><p><blockquote>我还提供了用于确定每个股票质量分数的五个质量指标（<b>哪个</b>），以及我的FV估计值（<b>公允价值</b>) 以帮助识别以有利估值交易的股票。折扣/溢价列（<b>–盘/+按</b>) 显示最近股价相对于我的 FV 估计的折扣或溢价。最后一列显示了我的<b>低价购买</b>价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f324d83432096c060b5f6c3d8160bb2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>8 月份前 7 只股息增长股的关键指标和公允价值估计（包括来自 Dividend Radar 的数据）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also&nbsp;estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我使用调查方法来得出我的FV估计值。我从多个来源收集光伏估算和价格目标，包括晨星和 Finbox。我还根据每只股票的五年平均股息收益率来估算公允价值。有了几个可用的估计值和目标，我忽略了异常值（最低值和最高值），并使用中位数的平均值和剩余值的平均值作为我的FV估计值。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of&nbsp;Portfolio-Insight.com.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们依次来看看每只股票。所有数据和图表均由 Portfolio-Insight.com 提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Home Depot, Inc (HD)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家得宝公司 (HD)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.</p><p><blockquote>HD成立于1978年，总部位于佐治亚州亚特兰大，是一家家装零售商，销售各种建筑材料、家装产品、草坪和花园产品。HD为自己动手、为我动手和专业客户提供安装、家庭维护和专业服务项目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6842eea771a305e92d0bb6d957bd57d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f3ed296edb6ead77589b6d4b07cbe5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HD 非 GAAP 每股收益和股息支付 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛克希德·马丁公司 (LMT)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.</p><p><blockquote>LMT成立于1909年，总部位于马里兰州贝塞斯达，是一家全球安全和航空航天公司，从事先进技术系统的研究、设计、开发、制造、集成和维护。LMT 通过四个部门运营：航空、导弹和火控、旋转和任务系统以及空间系统。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359b23f2763ac619280d013761595377\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47748a713424d38d792d7a3f143cd43e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LMT 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德公司 (BLK)</b></blockquote></p><p> BLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.</p><p><blockquote>BLK是一家投资管理公司，为世界各地的机构和零售客户提供一系列投资和风险管理服务。该公司的产品包括投资于股票、固定收益、另类投资和货币市场工具的单一和多资产类别投资组合。BLK成立于1988年，总部位于纽约市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c563eda1121ff8577ac7143aa5dce6b\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35801c7a805cdb486138d656804ecff2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳氏公司 (LOW)</b></blockquote></p><p> LOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>LOW是一家家装零售商。该公司提供全系列的维护、维修、改造和家居装饰产品。它还通过独立承包商提供安装服务，以及扩展保护计划和维修服务。LOW 成立于 1946 年，总部位于北卡罗来纳州穆尔斯维尔。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac3795d1f098c20a7134b2ba6385f26\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf243f7d5e513612959d20eac51de310\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM) 较低，且股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司 (NOC)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.</p><p><blockquote>NOC成立于1939年，总部位于弗吉尼亚州的福尔斯彻奇，是一家领先的全球安全公司，拥有政府和商业客户。NOC提供无人系统的系统、产品和解决方案；网络安全；指挥、控制、通信和计算机情报；监视和侦察；以及物流和现代化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3c9d83f1ce89ce88fbc4db0563e90c\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed575536c4cdb7b3eefe171a50640922\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NOC 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Allstate Corporation (ALL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好事达公司（ALL）</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.</p><p><blockquote>ALL成立于1931年，总部位于伊利诺伊州诺斯布鲁克，是一家在美国和加拿大从事财产责任保险和人寿保险的控股公司。该公司销售的保险产品涵盖汽车、房屋和 Allstate、Esurance 和 Encompass 品牌下的其他财产。它还销售人寿保险以及自愿意外和健康保险产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9e2dcf663b98cc621720a0351a3cf9\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d93c9b392e2af4424e59a71fe1333c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>L3哈里斯技术公司 (LHX)</b></blockquote></p><p> LHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.</p><p><blockquote>LHX 是一家航空航天和国防技术公司，为全球政府和商业客户提供关键任务解决方案。该公司分为四个部门：综合任务系统、空间和机载系统、通信系统和航空系统。LHX成立于1895年，总部位于佛罗里达州墨尔本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5231f6010e48ff033da34b6f76ed3e2b\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182d5456cf84b655db04ad703cc681d4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LHX 非 GAAP 每股收益和已支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Remarks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1e63ebd49ef16583c3992662d1c4f\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我对股息雷达中估值合理的股息增长股票进行了排名，这些股票在过去十年中保持了至少 10% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增长率。我还要求至少3%的5年期YoC。</blockquote></p><p> I own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible&nbsp;portfolio target weighting&nbsp;strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!</p><p><blockquote>我拥有本月的六只股票。除了我的所有头寸外，我的头寸都是由我的动态和灵活的投资组合目标权重策略决定的全尺寸头寸。一切都是跑输大盘，我需要增加大约 75 股才能建立一个完整的头寸。鉴于所有商品都有 18% 的折扣，现在似乎是购买商品的好时机!</blockquote></p><p> I don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我并不拥有 LHX，看起来这是一个值得考虑的有趣候选人，不过我更愿意在他们提供至少 4% 的 5 年期 YoC 年利率时开设新职位。尽管如此，LHX 的增长前景令人印象深刻，但派息率却很低，因此我将花些时间研究这只股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在实现出色的盈利和股息增长，并且其股票的交易估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> Last month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，我开始了一个新系列，将对股息雷达股票的选择进行排名，并提出排名最高的七只股票供考虑。股息雷达跟踪在美国交易所交易的股票，股息连续增加至少五年。</blockquote></p><p> Each month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>每个月，我都会考虑使用不同的屏幕来缩小 750 多只股息雷达股票的范围。Screens 将重点关注股息增长投资的各个方面，例如股息收益率、股息增长率和股票估值。</blockquote></p><p> This month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>本月，我筛选了过去十年盈利增长异常的公司股票。此外，我筛选了估值合理的股票，并要求 5 年期成本收益率 (YoC) 至少为 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Screening and Ranking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>筛选和排名</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和盈利增长是股息和股息增长的基础。公司可以使用债务来支付股息，例如当收益暂时不足以支付股息时。但最终，这笔债务将不得不从收益中偿还，这大概也有希望足以偿还债务和支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio Insight&nbsp;provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:</p><p><blockquote>Portfolio Insight 提供盈利和盈利增长数据，我们可以对其进行监控，以了解公司继续支付和增加股息的能力。在本月的文章中，我考虑了不同时间段的非美国通用会计准则每股收益复合年增长率（CAGR）。以下是具体的筛选公式：</blockquote></p><p> <b>NG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NG EPS 1年≥10%且NG EPS 3年≥10%且NG EPS 5年≥10%且NG EPS 10年≥10%</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还筛选了估值合理的股票。我所说的“合理”是基于我的质量/估值矩阵，该矩阵对质量较高的股票给予优惠待遇。从本质上讲，我愿意为质量最高的股票支付少量溢价，而要求为质量较低的股票支付更大的折扣：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d7af9e75bd202d2d9cabb79d04964c\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I calculate&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.</p><p><blockquote>我计算<b>低价购买</b>基于此质量/估值矩阵的相对于我的公允价值【FV】估计的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I screened for stocks with a&nbsp;5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我筛选了5年期成本收益率[YoC]高于3%的股票。该指标结合了远期收益率和 5 年期股息增长率 [DGR]，以确定在保持 DGR 不变的情况下，投资五年后您的股息相对于今天的股价会是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月放映的总体总结：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Exceptional earnings for at least ten years</li>  <li>Reasonable current valuation</li>  <li>Reasonable future dividend income</li> </ol> The latest&nbsp;Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>至少十年的卓越收益</li><li>合理现行估值</li><li>合理的未来股息收入</li></ol>最新的股息雷达（日期为 2021 年 7 月 30 日）包含 762 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> Applying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).</p><p><blockquote>应用第一个（相当严格的）筛选将列表减少到只有87个候选人。（其中，只有20个通过了第二个屏幕，只有11个也通过了第三个屏幕）。</blockquote></p><p> I ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via&nbsp;DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:</p><p><blockquote>我通过对候选人的质量分数（通过DVK质量快照确定）按降序排序来对他们进行排名，并依次使用以下指标来打破联系：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Simply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores</li>  <li><i>S&amp;P Credit Ratings</i></li>  <li>Dividend Yield</li> </ul> The tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Simply Safe 股息安全评分</li><li><i>标准普尔信用评级</i></li><li>股息收益率</li></ul>下表按排名显示了前七只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8 月排名前 7 的股息增长股</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月排名靠前的股息增长型股票：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74ac455b7df108e6e1de77ba837a01c\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I own the six highlighted stocks in my&nbsp;DivGro portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我拥有 DivGro 投资组合中的六只突出显示的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (<b>Years</b>), the dividend&nbsp;<b>Yield</b>&nbsp;for a recent share&nbsp;<b>Price</b>, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (<b>5-Yr DGR</b>). The&nbsp;<i>Chowder Number</i>(<b>CDN</b>) and 5-year YoC (<b>5-Yr YoC</b>) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (<b>5-Yr TTR</b>) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我提供了一个表格，其中包含股息增长投资者感兴趣的关键指标，包括股息连续增长（<b>年</b>），股息<b>产量</b>对于最近的股份<b>价格</b>以及5年期股息增长率（<b>5年DGR</b>).这个<i>杂烩数</i>(<b>CDN</b>）和5年YoC（<b>5年</b>）是衡量股票未来总回报率和股息收入前景的指标，而 5 年追踪总回报率（<b>5年TTR</b>) 是衡量股票过去五年表现的指标。</blockquote></p><p> I also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (<b>Qual</b>), as well as my FV estimate (<b>Fair Value</b>) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (<b>–Disc/+Prem</b>) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;price.</p><p><blockquote>我还提供了用于确定每个股票质量分数的五个质量指标（<b>哪个</b>），以及我的FV估计值（<b>公允价值</b>) 以帮助识别以有利估值交易的股票。折扣/溢价列（<b>–盘/+按</b>) 显示最近股价相对于我的 FV 估计的折扣或溢价。最后一列显示了我的<b>低价购买</b>价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f324d83432096c060b5f6c3d8160bb2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>8 月份前 7 只股息增长股的关键指标和公允价值估计（包括来自 Dividend Radar 的数据）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also&nbsp;estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我使用调查方法来得出我的FV估计值。我从多个来源收集光伏估算和价格目标，包括晨星和 Finbox。我还根据每只股票的五年平均股息收益率来估算公允价值。有了几个可用的估计值和目标，我忽略了异常值（最低值和最高值），并使用中位数的平均值和剩余值的平均值作为我的FV估计值。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of&nbsp;Portfolio-Insight.com.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们依次来看看每只股票。所有数据和图表均由 Portfolio-Insight.com 提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Home Depot, Inc (HD)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家得宝公司 (HD)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.</p><p><blockquote>HD成立于1978年，总部位于佐治亚州亚特兰大，是一家家装零售商，销售各种建筑材料、家装产品、草坪和花园产品。HD为自己动手、为我动手和专业客户提供安装、家庭维护和专业服务项目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6842eea771a305e92d0bb6d957bd57d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f3ed296edb6ead77589b6d4b07cbe5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HD 非 GAAP 每股收益和股息支付 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛克希德·马丁公司 (LMT)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.</p><p><blockquote>LMT成立于1909年，总部位于马里兰州贝塞斯达，是一家全球安全和航空航天公司，从事先进技术系统的研究、设计、开发、制造、集成和维护。LMT 通过四个部门运营：航空、导弹和火控、旋转和任务系统以及空间系统。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359b23f2763ac619280d013761595377\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47748a713424d38d792d7a3f143cd43e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LMT 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德公司 (BLK)</b></blockquote></p><p> BLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.</p><p><blockquote>BLK是一家投资管理公司，为世界各地的机构和零售客户提供一系列投资和风险管理服务。该公司的产品包括投资于股票、固定收益、另类投资和货币市场工具的单一和多资产类别投资组合。BLK成立于1988年，总部位于纽约市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c563eda1121ff8577ac7143aa5dce6b\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35801c7a805cdb486138d656804ecff2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳氏公司 (LOW)</b></blockquote></p><p> LOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>LOW是一家家装零售商。该公司提供全系列的维护、维修、改造和家居装饰产品。它还通过独立承包商提供安装服务，以及扩展保护计划和维修服务。LOW 成立于 1946 年，总部位于北卡罗来纳州穆尔斯维尔。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac3795d1f098c20a7134b2ba6385f26\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf243f7d5e513612959d20eac51de310\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM) 较低，且股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司 (NOC)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.</p><p><blockquote>NOC成立于1939年，总部位于弗吉尼亚州的福尔斯彻奇，是一家领先的全球安全公司，拥有政府和商业客户。NOC提供无人系统的系统、产品和解决方案；网络安全；指挥、控制、通信和计算机情报；监视和侦察；以及物流和现代化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3c9d83f1ce89ce88fbc4db0563e90c\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed575536c4cdb7b3eefe171a50640922\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NOC 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Allstate Corporation (ALL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好事达公司（ALL）</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.</p><p><blockquote>ALL成立于1931年，总部位于伊利诺伊州诺斯布鲁克，是一家在美国和加拿大从事财产责任保险和人寿保险的控股公司。该公司销售的保险产品涵盖汽车、房屋和 Allstate、Esurance 和 Encompass 品牌下的其他财产。它还销售人寿保险以及自愿意外和健康保险产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9e2dcf663b98cc621720a0351a3cf9\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d93c9b392e2af4424e59a71fe1333c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>L3哈里斯技术公司 (LHX)</b></blockquote></p><p> LHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.</p><p><blockquote>LHX 是一家航空航天和国防技术公司，为全球政府和商业客户提供关键任务解决方案。该公司分为四个部门：综合任务系统、空间和机载系统、通信系统和航空系统。LHX成立于1895年，总部位于佛罗里达州墨尔本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5231f6010e48ff033da34b6f76ed3e2b\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182d5456cf84b655db04ad703cc681d4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LHX 非 GAAP 每股收益和已支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Remarks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1e63ebd49ef16583c3992662d1c4f\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我对股息雷达中估值合理的股息增长股票进行了排名，这些股票在过去十年中保持了至少 10% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增长率。我还要求至少3%的5年期YoC。</blockquote></p><p> I own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible&nbsp;portfolio target weighting&nbsp;strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!</p><p><blockquote>我拥有本月的六只股票。除了我的所有头寸外，我的头寸都是由我的动态和灵活的投资组合目标权重策略决定的全尺寸头寸。一切都是跑输大盘，我需要增加大约 75 股才能建立一个完整的头寸。鉴于所有商品都有 18% 的折扣，现在似乎是购买商品的好时机!</blockquote></p><p> I don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我并不拥有 LHX，看起来这是一个值得考虑的有趣候选人，不过我更愿意在他们提供至少 4% 的 5 年期 YoC 年利率时开设新职位。尽管如此，LHX 的增长前景令人印象深刻，但派息率却很低，因此我将花些时间研究这只股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/dividendstrategists/dividend-ideas/7-dividend-growth-stocks-for-august-2021\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ALL":"好事达","BLK":"贝莱德","HD":"家得宝","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","NOC":"诺斯罗普格鲁曼","LHX":"L3Harris Technologies Inc","LOW":"劳氏"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/dividendstrategists/dividend-ideas/7-dividend-growth-stocks-for-august-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122614377","content_text":"These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.\nLast month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.\nEach month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.\nThis month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.\nScreening and Ranking\nEarnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.\nPortfolio Insight provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:\nNG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%\nAdditionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:\n\nI calculate Buy Below prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.\nFinally, I screened for stocks with a 5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.\nHere is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:\n\nExceptional earnings for at least ten years\nReasonable current valuation\nReasonable future dividend income\n\nThe latest Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.\nApplying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).\nI ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:\n\nSimply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores\nS&P Credit Ratings\nDividend Yield\n\nThe tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.\n7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August\nHere are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:\n\nI own the six highlighted stocks in my DivGro portfolio.\nBelow, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (Years), the dividend Yield for a recent share Price, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (5-Yr DGR). The Chowder Number(CDN) and 5-year YoC (5-Yr YoC) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (5-Yr TTR) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.\nI also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (Qual), as well as my FV estimate (Fair Value) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (–Disc/+Prem) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my Buy Below price.\nKey metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).\nI use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.\nNext, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of Portfolio-Insight.com.\nThe Home Depot, Inc (HD)\nFounded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.\n\nHD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nLockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)\nFounded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.\n\nLMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nBlackRock, Inc. (BLK)\nBLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.\n\nLowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)\nLOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.\n\nLOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nNorthrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)\nFounded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.\n\nNOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nThe Allstate Corporation (ALL)\nFounded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.\n\nALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nL3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)\nLHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.\n\nLHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nConcluding Remarks\n\nIn this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.\nI own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible portfolio target weighting strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!\nI don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9,"LMT":0.9,"LOW":0.9,"NOC":0.9,"HD":0.9,"ALL":0.9,"LHX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150681798,"gmtCreate":1624896335314,"gmtModify":1633947281742,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150681798","repostId":"2146836375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408205,"gmtCreate":1624776404007,"gmtModify":1633948697628,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"X","listText":"X","text":"X","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124408205","repostId":"1189436009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124401678,"gmtCreate":1624776293994,"gmtModify":1633948698581,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124401678","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124401338,"gmtCreate":1624776253224,"gmtModify":1633948698826,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575811912571873","authorIdStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124401338","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":807706440,"gmtCreate":1628054790080,"gmtModify":1633753982986,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575811912571873","idStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807706440","repostId":"2156412186","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893041322,"gmtCreate":1628224183766,"gmtModify":1633752431046,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575811912571873","idStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893041322","repostId":"1193751771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193751771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628222237,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193751771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193751771","media":"yahoo finance","summary":"When President Obama ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in thei","content":"<p>When President Obama&nbsp;ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and&nbsp;locked in the new rules, with no industry input.</p><p><blockquote>当奥巴马总统在2012年提高燃油经济性标准时，一些汽车制造商悄悄地挖掘他们的轮胎。到2025年，新规则将燃油效率要求提高了近一倍，迫使昂贵的新技术迅速采用。如果该技术成熟得不够快，2018 年的中期审查本应提供一个出口。但当唐纳德·特朗普在2016年赢得总统大选时，奥巴马提前了最后期限，并锁定了新规则，没有行业的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency,&nbsp;Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump&nbsp;sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.</p><p><blockquote>被回避的汽车行业向特朗普请求救济，并得到了救济。就任总统两个月后，特朗普重启了中途审查，2020年特朗普大幅降低了2025年的目标。特朗普还试图阻止加利福尼亚州和其他二十几个州将自己的里程标准设定得高于联邦水平。这导致了行业的分裂，一些汽车制造商站在特朗普一边，另一些则站在加州一边。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统现在正在取消特朗普的取消政策，并再次推动大幅提高燃油经济性。但他这样做是在汽车制造商更多的合作下进行的，而奥巴马则没有这样的优势： 电动汽车比九年前走得更远，各大汽车制造商都在争相将电动汽车推向市场。这使得汽车制造商现在更容易削减其车队的排放，同时具有讽刺意味的是，这使得政府能够放宽仍使用汽油的车辆的效率目标。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Automakers are on board</b></h3> A new Biden executive order sets a target for up to&nbsp;50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>汽车制造商也参与其中</b></h3>拜登的一项新行政命令设定了到 2030 年销售的所有新车中高达 50% 为电动汽车的目标，这意味着它们要么是全插电式、同时配备燃气发动机和电动机的混合动力汽车，要么是氢动力汽车。请注意，这是一个 “目标 ”，而不是要求。拜登的目标与汽车制造商已经宣布的目标基本一致，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>目标是到 2035 年完全淘汰汽油和柴油动力汽车。未能达到目标的处罚？没什么。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1af6cf6099a51f8b7b2be1a35f29a84\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>A sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2021年7月21日星期三上午，宾夕法尼亚州斯普林镇希尔顿酒店惠庭套房酒店的ChargePoint车辆（EV）充电站上写着“仅限电动汽车充电”的标志。（图片来源：Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle，Getty Images）</i></blockquote></p><p> Biden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump&nbsp;lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that&nbsp;would require a 3.7% annual improvement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还将开始将汽油动力汽车的燃油经济性标准提高到特朗普水平以上。奥巴马的规定要求燃油经济性每年提高约5%。特朗普将这一比例下调至1.5%。据报道，拜登将提出新规则，要求每年提高 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> It will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">Volvo AB</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and Jeep-Chrysler parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.</p><p><blockquote>制定管理燃油经济性提高的联邦法规需要时间，但与之前围绕燃油经济性提高的斗争相比，汽车行业似乎不太可能试图在幕后淡化这一点。七家汽车制造商——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">巴伐利亚发动机厂股份公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">大众汽车公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">沃尔沃AB</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和吉普-克莱斯勒母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>-提供白宫在宣布拜登新的电动汽车目标时分发的支持性声明。“通用汽车、福特和 Stellantis 异口同声地说：”我们期待与拜登政府合作.制定政策，以实现这些雄心勃勃的目标。汽车制造商并不经常联手称赞联邦新法规。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.</p><p><blockquote>对汽车制造商来说，还有一个巨大的甜头：数十亿美元的联邦支出支持电动汽车的发展。国会通过的两党基础设施法案包括 75 亿美元用于帮助建设电动汽车充电站。拜登希望在清洁汽车税收抵免、电池厂补贴、校车电气化和其他举措上追加超过 1500 亿美元的支出。国会可能不会提供所有这些支出，但即使其中一部分也会是支持电动汽车发展的意外之财，如果没有政府的巨额援助，电动汽车的发展风险会很大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3cdc7ae94763d9e64dee84b0bcdfeb\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>加利福尼亚州凯特尔曼市的超级充电站是加利福尼亚州圣华金谷的一个电动汽车充电站。照片拍摄于2021年7月12日。（卡罗琳·科尔/洛杉矶时报，盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction occurs.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府和汽车行业之间关系缓和的一个迹象是环保组织的批评，他们希望拜登能走得更远。在为拜登即将推翻特朗普规则喝彩的同时，一些团体认为他的行动太慢了。“倡导组织 Evergreen Action 在一份声明中说：”设定到 2030 年电动汽车销量达到 40%-50% 的宏伟目标是远远不够的。“拜登政府应.推动到2030年实现100%的电动汽车销量”。汽油动力汽车是一种濒临灭绝的物种，只是灭绝发生的时间问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy automakers like Biden more than Obama<blockquote>为什么汽车制造商更喜欢拜登而不是奥巴马</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">yahoo finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When President Obama&nbsp;ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and&nbsp;locked in the new rules, with no industry input.</p><p><blockquote>当奥巴马总统在2012年提高燃油经济性标准时，一些汽车制造商悄悄地挖掘他们的轮胎。到2025年，新规则将燃油效率要求提高了近一倍，迫使昂贵的新技术迅速采用。如果该技术成熟得不够快，2018 年的中期审查本应提供一个出口。但当唐纳德·特朗普在2016年赢得总统大选时，奥巴马提前了最后期限，并锁定了新规则，没有行业的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency,&nbsp;Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump&nbsp;sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.</p><p><blockquote>被回避的汽车行业向特朗普请求救济，并得到了救济。就任总统两个月后，特朗普重启了中途审查，2020年特朗普大幅降低了2025年的目标。特朗普还试图阻止加利福尼亚州和其他二十几个州将自己的里程标准设定得高于联邦水平。这导致了行业的分裂，一些汽车制造商站在特朗普一边，另一些则站在加州一边。</blockquote></p><p> President Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>拜登总统现在正在取消特朗普的取消政策，并再次推动大幅提高燃油经济性。但他这样做是在汽车制造商更多的合作下进行的，而奥巴马则没有这样的优势： 电动汽车比九年前走得更远，各大汽车制造商都在争相将电动汽车推向市场。这使得汽车制造商现在更容易削减其车队的排放，同时具有讽刺意味的是，这使得政府能够放宽仍使用汽油的车辆的效率目标。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Automakers are on board</b></h3> A new Biden executive order sets a target for up to&nbsp;50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>汽车制造商也参与其中</b></h3>拜登的一项新行政命令设定了到 2030 年销售的所有新车中高达 50% 为电动汽车的目标，这意味着它们要么是全插电式、同时配备燃气发动机和电动机的混合动力汽车，要么是氢动力汽车。请注意，这是一个 “目标 ”，而不是要求。拜登的目标与汽车制造商已经宣布的目标基本一致，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>目标是到 2035 年完全淘汰汽油和柴油动力汽车。未能达到目标的处罚？没什么。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1af6cf6099a51f8b7b2be1a35f29a84\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>A sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2021年7月21日星期三上午，宾夕法尼亚州斯普林镇希尔顿酒店惠庭套房酒店的ChargePoint车辆（EV）充电站上写着“仅限电动汽车充电”的标志。（图片来源：Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle，Getty Images）</i></blockquote></p><p> Biden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump&nbsp;lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that&nbsp;would require a 3.7% annual improvement.</p><p><blockquote>拜登还将开始将汽油动力汽车的燃油经济性标准提高到特朗普水平以上。奥巴马的规定要求燃油经济性每年提高约5%。特朗普将这一比例下调至1.5%。据报道，拜登将提出新规则，要求每年提高 3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> It will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">Honda</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">Volkswagen AG</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">Volvo AB</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> and Jeep-Chrysler parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">Stellantis NV</a>—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.</p><p><blockquote>制定管理燃油经济性提高的联邦法规需要时间，但与之前围绕燃油经济性提高的斗争相比，汽车行业似乎不太可能试图在幕后淡化这一点。七家汽车制造商——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMWYY\">巴伐利亚发动机厂股份公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLKAF\">大众汽车公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VLVLY\">沃尔沃AB</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>和吉普-克莱斯勒母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STLA\">斯特兰蒂斯公司</a>-提供白宫在宣布拜登新的电动汽车目标时分发的支持性声明。“通用汽车、福特和 Stellantis 异口同声地说：”我们期待与拜登政府合作.制定政策，以实现这些雄心勃勃的目标。汽车制造商并不经常联手称赞联邦新法规。</blockquote></p><p> There’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.</p><p><blockquote>对汽车制造商来说，还有一个巨大的甜头：数十亿美元的联邦支出支持电动汽车的发展。国会通过的两党基础设施法案包括 75 亿美元用于帮助建设电动汽车充电站。拜登希望在清洁汽车税收抵免、电池厂补贴、校车电气化和其他举措上追加超过 1500 亿美元的支出。国会可能不会提供所有这些支出，但即使其中一部分也会是支持电动汽车发展的意外之财，如果没有政府的巨额援助，电动汽车的发展风险会很大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb3cdc7ae94763d9e64dee84b0bcdfeb\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>加利福尼亚州凯特尔曼市的超级充电站是加利福尼亚州圣华金谷的一个电动汽车充电站。照片拍摄于2021年7月12日。（卡罗琳·科尔/洛杉矶时报，盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction occurs.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府和汽车行业之间关系缓和的一个迹象是环保组织的批评，他们希望拜登能走得更远。在为拜登即将推翻特朗普规则喝彩的同时，一些团体认为他的行动太慢了。“倡导组织 Evergreen Action 在一份声明中说：”设定到 2030 年电动汽车销量达到 40%-50% 的宏伟目标是远远不够的。“拜登政府应.推动到2030年实现100%的电动汽车销量”。汽油动力汽车是一种濒临灭绝的物种，只是灭绝发生的时间问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-automakers-like-biden-more-than-obama-154815643.html\">yahoo finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-automakers-like-biden-more-than-obama-154815643.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193751771","content_text":"When President Obama ratcheted up fuel economy standards in 2012, some carmakers quietly dug in their tires. The new rules nearly doubled fuel-efficiency requirements by 2025, forcing the rapid adoption of expensive new technology. A midway review in 2018 was supposed to provide an off-ramp if the technology wasn’t maturing quickly enough. But when Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Obama moved up the deadline and locked in the new rules, with no industry input.\nThe shunned auto industry asked Trump for relief, and got it. Two months into his presidency, Trump reopened the midway review, and in 2020 Trump sharply reduced the 2025 target. Trump also tried to stop California and two dozen other states from setting their own mileage standards higher than federal levels. That split the industry, assome carmakers sided with Trump and others with California.\nPresident Biden is now undoing Trump’s undoing, and once again pushing for sharp increases in fuel economy. But he’s doing it with much more cooperation from automakers, and an advantage Obama didn’t have: Electric vehicles are much further along than they were nine years ago, with every major automaker rushing EVs to market. That now makes it much easier for automakers to slash emissions across their fleets, while, ironically, allowing the government to soften efficiency targets for vehicles that still run on gasoline.\nAutomakers are on board\nA new Biden executive order sets a target for up to 50% of all new vehicles sold by 2030 being electrified, which means they will either be full plug-ins, hybrids with both a gas engine and an electric motor, or hydrogen-powered cars. Notice that it’s a “target,” not a requirement. Biden’s target is largely in line with goals automakers have already announced, such as General Motors' aim to fully phase out gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2035. The penalty for failing to meet the target? Nada.\nA sign that reads \"EV Charging Only\" at a ChargePoint vehicle (EV) charging station at the Homewood Suites by Hilton hotel in Spring Township, PA Wednesday morning July 21, 2021. (Photo by Ben Hasty/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images)\nBiden will also start the process of raising fuel-economy standards for gas-powered cars above the Trump levels. The Obama rules required fuel-economy improvements of about 5% per year. Trump lowered that to 1.5%. Biden will reportedly propose new rules that would require a 3.7% annual improvement.\nIt will take time to formulate the federal regulation governing increases in fuel economy, but the auto industry seems less likely to try watering that down behind the scenes than it has during previous battles over fuel-economy increases. Seven automakers—Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, Honda, Volkswagen AG, Volvo AB, General Motors, Ford and Jeep-Chrysler parent Stellantis NV—provided supporting statements the White House distributed when it announced Biden’s new EV target. “We look forward to working with the Biden Administration … to enact policies that will enable these ambitious objectives,” GM, Ford and Stellantis said in unison. It’s not often automakers join hands to praise new federal regulations.\nThere’s a huge sweetener for automakers: Billions of dollars in federal spending to support EV development. The bipartisan infrastructure bill working through Congress includes $7.5 billion to help build EV charging stations. Biden wants more than $150 billion in additional spending on clean-car tax credits, subsidies for battery plants, school-bus electrification and other initiatives. Congress probably won’t provide all that spending, but even a portion of it would be a windfall supporting EV development that would be much risker without a huge government assist.\nThe Tesla Motors Supercharger Station in Kettleman City, California is an EV charging station for electric cars in the San Joaquin Valley, California. Photograph taken on July 12, 2021. (Carolyn Cole / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)\nOne sign of the coziness developing between the Biden administration and the auto industry is criticism from environmental groups hoping Biden would go further. While applauding Biden’s pending reversal of the Trump rules, some groups say he’s moving too slowly. “Setting an aspirational target of 40%-50% electric vehicle sales by 2030 is simply not enough,” the advocacy group Evergreen Action said in a statement. “The Biden administration should … drive toward 100% EV sales by 2030.” The gas-powered car is an endangered species, it's just a matter of when the extinction 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11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122614377","media":"TheStreet","summary":"These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are tradin","content":"<p>These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在实现出色的盈利和股息增长，并且其股票的交易估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> Last month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，我开始了一个新系列，将对股息雷达股票的选择进行排名，并提出排名最高的七只股票供考虑。股息雷达跟踪在美国交易所交易的股票，股息连续增加至少五年。</blockquote></p><p> Each month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>每个月，我都会考虑使用不同的屏幕来缩小 750 多只股息雷达股票的范围。Screens 将重点关注股息增长投资的各个方面，例如股息收益率、股息增长率和股票估值。</blockquote></p><p> This month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>本月，我筛选了过去十年盈利增长异常的公司股票。此外，我筛选了估值合理的股票，并要求 5 年期成本收益率 (YoC) 至少为 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Screening and Ranking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>筛选和排名</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和盈利增长是股息和股息增长的基础。公司可以使用债务来支付股息，例如当收益暂时不足以支付股息时。但最终，这笔债务将不得不从收益中偿还，这大概也有希望足以偿还债务和支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio Insight&nbsp;provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:</p><p><blockquote>Portfolio Insight 提供盈利和盈利增长数据，我们可以对其进行监控，以了解公司继续支付和增加股息的能力。在本月的文章中，我考虑了不同时间段的非美国通用会计准则每股收益复合年增长率（CAGR）。以下是具体的筛选公式：</blockquote></p><p> <b>NG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NG EPS 1年≥10%且NG EPS 3年≥10%且NG EPS 5年≥10%且NG EPS 10年≥10%</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还筛选了估值合理的股票。我所说的“合理”是基于我的质量/估值矩阵，该矩阵对质量较高的股票给予优惠待遇。从本质上讲，我愿意为质量最高的股票支付少量溢价，而要求为质量较低的股票支付更大的折扣：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d7af9e75bd202d2d9cabb79d04964c\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I calculate&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.</p><p><blockquote>我计算<b>低价购买</b>基于此质量/估值矩阵的相对于我的公允价值【FV】估计的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I screened for stocks with a&nbsp;5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我筛选了5年期成本收益率[YoC]高于3%的股票。该指标结合了远期收益率和 5 年期股息增长率 [DGR]，以确定在保持 DGR 不变的情况下，投资五年后您的股息相对于今天的股价会是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月放映的总体总结：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Exceptional earnings for at least ten years</li>  <li>Reasonable current valuation</li>  <li>Reasonable future dividend income</li> </ol> The latest&nbsp;Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>至少十年的卓越收益</li><li>合理现行估值</li><li>合理的未来股息收入</li></ol>最新的股息雷达（日期为 2021 年 7 月 30 日）包含 762 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> Applying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).</p><p><blockquote>应用第一个（相当严格的）筛选将列表减少到只有87个候选人。（其中，只有20个通过了第二个屏幕，只有11个也通过了第三个屏幕）。</blockquote></p><p> I ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via&nbsp;DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:</p><p><blockquote>我通过对候选人的质量分数（通过DVK质量快照确定）按降序排序来对他们进行排名，并依次使用以下指标来打破联系：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Simply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores</li>  <li><i>S&amp;P Credit Ratings</i></li>  <li>Dividend Yield</li> </ul> The tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Simply Safe 股息安全评分</li><li><i>标准普尔信用评级</i></li><li>股息收益率</li></ul>下表按排名显示了前七只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8 月排名前 7 的股息增长股</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月排名靠前的股息增长型股票：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74ac455b7df108e6e1de77ba837a01c\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I own the six highlighted stocks in my&nbsp;DivGro portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我拥有 DivGro 投资组合中的六只突出显示的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (<b>Years</b>), the dividend&nbsp;<b>Yield</b>&nbsp;for a recent share&nbsp;<b>Price</b>, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (<b>5-Yr DGR</b>). The&nbsp;<i>Chowder Number</i>(<b>CDN</b>) and 5-year YoC (<b>5-Yr YoC</b>) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (<b>5-Yr TTR</b>) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我提供了一个表格，其中包含股息增长投资者感兴趣的关键指标，包括股息连续增长（<b>年</b>），股息<b>产量</b>对于最近的股份<b>价格</b>以及5年期股息增长率（<b>5年DGR</b>).这个<i>杂烩数</i>(<b>CDN</b>）和5年YoC（<b>5年</b>）是衡量股票未来总回报率和股息收入前景的指标，而 5 年追踪总回报率（<b>5年TTR</b>) 是衡量股票过去五年表现的指标。</blockquote></p><p> I also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (<b>Qual</b>), as well as my FV estimate (<b>Fair Value</b>) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (<b>–Disc/+Prem</b>) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;price.</p><p><blockquote>我还提供了用于确定每个股票质量分数的五个质量指标（<b>哪个</b>），以及我的FV估计值（<b>公允价值</b>) 以帮助识别以有利估值交易的股票。折扣/溢价列（<b>–盘/+按</b>) 显示最近股价相对于我的 FV 估计的折扣或溢价。最后一列显示了我的<b>低价购买</b>价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f324d83432096c060b5f6c3d8160bb2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>8 月份前 7 只股息增长股的关键指标和公允价值估计（包括来自 Dividend Radar 的数据）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also&nbsp;estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我使用调查方法来得出我的FV估计值。我从多个来源收集光伏估算和价格目标，包括晨星和 Finbox。我还根据每只股票的五年平均股息收益率来估算公允价值。有了几个可用的估计值和目标，我忽略了异常值（最低值和最高值），并使用中位数的平均值和剩余值的平均值作为我的FV估计值。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of&nbsp;Portfolio-Insight.com.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们依次来看看每只股票。所有数据和图表均由 Portfolio-Insight.com 提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Home Depot, Inc (HD)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家得宝公司 (HD)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.</p><p><blockquote>HD成立于1978年，总部位于佐治亚州亚特兰大，是一家家装零售商，销售各种建筑材料、家装产品、草坪和花园产品。HD为自己动手、为我动手和专业客户提供安装、家庭维护和专业服务项目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6842eea771a305e92d0bb6d957bd57d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f3ed296edb6ead77589b6d4b07cbe5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HD 非 GAAP 每股收益和股息支付 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛克希德·马丁公司 (LMT)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.</p><p><blockquote>LMT成立于1909年，总部位于马里兰州贝塞斯达，是一家全球安全和航空航天公司，从事先进技术系统的研究、设计、开发、制造、集成和维护。LMT 通过四个部门运营：航空、导弹和火控、旋转和任务系统以及空间系统。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359b23f2763ac619280d013761595377\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47748a713424d38d792d7a3f143cd43e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LMT 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德公司 (BLK)</b></blockquote></p><p> BLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.</p><p><blockquote>BLK是一家投资管理公司，为世界各地的机构和零售客户提供一系列投资和风险管理服务。该公司的产品包括投资于股票、固定收益、另类投资和货币市场工具的单一和多资产类别投资组合。BLK成立于1988年，总部位于纽约市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c563eda1121ff8577ac7143aa5dce6b\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35801c7a805cdb486138d656804ecff2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳氏公司 (LOW)</b></blockquote></p><p> LOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>LOW是一家家装零售商。该公司提供全系列的维护、维修、改造和家居装饰产品。它还通过独立承包商提供安装服务，以及扩展保护计划和维修服务。LOW 成立于 1946 年，总部位于北卡罗来纳州穆尔斯维尔。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac3795d1f098c20a7134b2ba6385f26\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf243f7d5e513612959d20eac51de310\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM) 较低，且股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司 (NOC)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.</p><p><blockquote>NOC成立于1939年，总部位于弗吉尼亚州的福尔斯彻奇，是一家领先的全球安全公司，拥有政府和商业客户。NOC提供无人系统的系统、产品和解决方案；网络安全；指挥、控制、通信和计算机情报；监视和侦察；以及物流和现代化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3c9d83f1ce89ce88fbc4db0563e90c\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed575536c4cdb7b3eefe171a50640922\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NOC 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Allstate Corporation (ALL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好事达公司（ALL）</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.</p><p><blockquote>ALL成立于1931年，总部位于伊利诺伊州诺斯布鲁克，是一家在美国和加拿大从事财产责任保险和人寿保险的控股公司。该公司销售的保险产品涵盖汽车、房屋和 Allstate、Esurance 和 Encompass 品牌下的其他财产。它还销售人寿保险以及自愿意外和健康保险产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9e2dcf663b98cc621720a0351a3cf9\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d93c9b392e2af4424e59a71fe1333c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>L3哈里斯技术公司 (LHX)</b></blockquote></p><p> LHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.</p><p><blockquote>LHX 是一家航空航天和国防技术公司，为全球政府和商业客户提供关键任务解决方案。该公司分为四个部门：综合任务系统、空间和机载系统、通信系统和航空系统。LHX成立于1895年，总部位于佛罗里达州墨尔本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5231f6010e48ff033da34b6f76ed3e2b\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182d5456cf84b655db04ad703cc681d4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LHX 非 GAAP 每股收益和已支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Remarks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1e63ebd49ef16583c3992662d1c4f\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我对股息雷达中估值合理的股息增长股票进行了排名，这些股票在过去十年中保持了至少 10% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增长率。我还要求至少3%的5年期YoC。</blockquote></p><p> I own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible&nbsp;portfolio target weighting&nbsp;strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!</p><p><blockquote>我拥有本月的六只股票。除了我的所有头寸外，我的头寸都是由我的动态和灵活的投资组合目标权重策略决定的全尺寸头寸。一切都是跑输大盘，我需要增加大约 75 股才能建立一个完整的头寸。鉴于所有商品都有 18% 的折扣，现在似乎是购买商品的好时机!</blockquote></p><p> I don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我并不拥有 LHX，看起来这是一个值得考虑的有趣候选人，不过我更愿意在他们提供至少 4% 的 5 年期 YoC 年利率时开设新职位。尽管如此，LHX 的增长前景令人印象深刻，但派息率却很低，因此我将花些时间研究这只股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Dividend Growth Stocks For August 2021<blockquote>2021 年 8 月 7 只股息增长股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司正在实现出色的盈利和股息增长，并且其股票的交易估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> Last month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，我开始了一个新系列，将对股息雷达股票的选择进行排名，并提出排名最高的七只股票供考虑。股息雷达跟踪在美国交易所交易的股票，股息连续增加至少五年。</blockquote></p><p> Each month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.</p><p><blockquote>每个月，我都会考虑使用不同的屏幕来缩小 750 多只股息雷达股票的范围。Screens 将重点关注股息增长投资的各个方面，例如股息收益率、股息增长率和股票估值。</blockquote></p><p> This month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>本月，我筛选了过去十年盈利增长异常的公司股票。此外，我筛选了估值合理的股票，并要求 5 年期成本收益率 (YoC) 至少为 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Screening and Ranking</b></p><p><blockquote><b>筛选和排名</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.</p><p><blockquote>盈利和盈利增长是股息和股息增长的基础。公司可以使用债务来支付股息，例如当收益暂时不足以支付股息时。但最终，这笔债务将不得不从收益中偿还，这大概也有希望足以偿还债务和支付股息。</blockquote></p><p> Portfolio Insight&nbsp;provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:</p><p><blockquote>Portfolio Insight 提供盈利和盈利增长数据，我们可以对其进行监控，以了解公司继续支付和增加股息的能力。在本月的文章中，我考虑了不同时间段的非美国通用会计准则每股收益复合年增长率（CAGR）。以下是具体的筛选公式：</blockquote></p><p> <b>NG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>NG EPS 1年≥10%且NG EPS 3年≥10%且NG EPS 5年≥10%且NG EPS 10年≥10%</b></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还筛选了估值合理的股票。我所说的“合理”是基于我的质量/估值矩阵，该矩阵对质量较高的股票给予优惠待遇。从本质上讲，我愿意为质量最高的股票支付少量溢价，而要求为质量较低的股票支付更大的折扣：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d7af9e75bd202d2d9cabb79d04964c\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I calculate&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.</p><p><blockquote>我计算<b>低价购买</b>基于此质量/估值矩阵的相对于我的公允价值【FV】估计的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, I screened for stocks with a&nbsp;5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我筛选了5年期成本收益率[YoC]高于3%的股票。该指标结合了远期收益率和 5 年期股息增长率 [DGR]，以确定在保持 DGR 不变的情况下，投资五年后您的股息相对于今天的股价会是多少。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月放映的总体总结：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Exceptional earnings for at least ten years</li>  <li>Reasonable current valuation</li>  <li>Reasonable future dividend income</li> </ol> The latest&nbsp;Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>至少十年的卓越收益</li><li>合理现行估值</li><li>合理的未来股息收入</li></ol>最新的股息雷达（日期为 2021 年 7 月 30 日）包含 762 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> Applying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).</p><p><blockquote>应用第一个（相当严格的）筛选将列表减少到只有87个候选人。（其中，只有20个通过了第二个屏幕，只有11个也通过了第三个屏幕）。</blockquote></p><p> I ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via&nbsp;DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:</p><p><blockquote>我通过对候选人的质量分数（通过DVK质量快照确定）按降序排序来对他们进行排名，并依次使用以下指标来打破联系：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Simply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores</li>  <li><i>S&amp;P Credit Ratings</i></li>  <li>Dividend Yield</li> </ul> The tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Simply Safe 股息安全评分</li><li><i>标准普尔信用评级</i></li><li>股息收益率</li></ul>下表按排名显示了前七只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August</b></p><p><blockquote><b>8 月排名前 7 的股息增长股</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:</p><p><blockquote>以下是本月排名靠前的股息增长型股票：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74ac455b7df108e6e1de77ba837a01c\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I own the six highlighted stocks in my&nbsp;DivGro portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>我拥有 DivGro 投资组合中的六只突出显示的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Below, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (<b>Years</b>), the dividend&nbsp;<b>Yield</b>&nbsp;for a recent share&nbsp;<b>Price</b>, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (<b>5-Yr DGR</b>). The&nbsp;<i>Chowder Number</i>(<b>CDN</b>) and 5-year YoC (<b>5-Yr YoC</b>) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (<b>5-Yr TTR</b>) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>下面，我提供了一个表格，其中包含股息增长投资者感兴趣的关键指标，包括股息连续增长（<b>年</b>），股息<b>产量</b>对于最近的股份<b>价格</b>以及5年期股息增长率（<b>5年DGR</b>).这个<i>杂烩数</i>(<b>CDN</b>）和5年YoC（<b>5年</b>）是衡量股票未来总回报率和股息收入前景的指标，而 5 年追踪总回报率（<b>5年TTR</b>) 是衡量股票过去五年表现的指标。</blockquote></p><p> I also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (<b>Qual</b>), as well as my FV estimate (<b>Fair Value</b>) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (<b>–Disc/+Prem</b>) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my&nbsp;<b>Buy Below</b>&nbsp;price.</p><p><blockquote>我还提供了用于确定每个股票质量分数的五个质量指标（<b>哪个</b>），以及我的FV估计值（<b>公允价值</b>) 以帮助识别以有利估值交易的股票。折扣/溢价列（<b>–盘/+按</b>) 显示最近股价相对于我的 FV 估计的折扣或溢价。最后一列显示了我的<b>低价购买</b>价格。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f324d83432096c060b5f6c3d8160bb2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>8 月份前 7 只股息增长股的关键指标和公允价值估计（包括来自 Dividend Radar 的数据）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also&nbsp;estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.</p><p><blockquote>我使用调查方法来得出我的FV估计值。我从多个来源收集光伏估算和价格目标，包括晨星和 Finbox。我还根据每只股票的五年平均股息收益率来估算公允价值。有了几个可用的估计值和目标，我忽略了异常值（最低值和最高值），并使用中位数的平均值和剩余值的平均值作为我的FV估计值。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of&nbsp;Portfolio-Insight.com.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们依次来看看每只股票。所有数据和图表均由 Portfolio-Insight.com 提供。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Home Depot, Inc (HD)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>家得宝公司 (HD)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.</p><p><blockquote>HD成立于1978年，总部位于佐治亚州亚特兰大，是一家家装零售商，销售各种建筑材料、家装产品、草坪和花园产品。HD为自己动手、为我动手和专业客户提供安装、家庭维护和专业服务项目。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6842eea771a305e92d0bb6d957bd57d2\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5f3ed296edb6ead77589b6d4b07cbe5\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>HD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HD 非 GAAP 每股收益和股息支付 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛克希德·马丁公司 (LMT)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.</p><p><blockquote>LMT成立于1909年，总部位于马里兰州贝塞斯达，是一家全球安全和航空航天公司，从事先进技术系统的研究、设计、开发、制造、集成和维护。LMT 通过四个部门运营：航空、导弹和火控、旋转和任务系统以及空间系统。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359b23f2763ac619280d013761595377\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47748a713424d38d792d7a3f143cd43e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LMT 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>贝莱德公司 (BLK)</b></blockquote></p><p> BLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.</p><p><blockquote>BLK是一家投资管理公司，为世界各地的机构和零售客户提供一系列投资和风险管理服务。该公司的产品包括投资于股票、固定收益、另类投资和货币市场工具的单一和多资产类别投资组合。BLK成立于1988年，总部位于纽约市。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c563eda1121ff8577ac7143aa5dce6b\" tg-width=\"1211\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35801c7a805cdb486138d656804ecff2\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"547\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳氏公司 (LOW)</b></blockquote></p><p> LOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>LOW是一家家装零售商。该公司提供全系列的维护、维修、改造和家居装饰产品。它还通过独立承包商提供安装服务，以及扩展保护计划和维修服务。LOW 成立于 1946 年，总部位于北卡罗来纳州穆尔斯维尔。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac3795d1f098c20a7134b2ba6385f26\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf243f7d5e513612959d20eac51de310\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM) 较低，且股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司 (NOC)</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.</p><p><blockquote>NOC成立于1939年，总部位于弗吉尼亚州的福尔斯彻奇，是一家领先的全球安全公司，拥有政府和商业客户。NOC提供无人系统的系统、产品和解决方案；网络安全；指挥、控制、通信和计算机情报；监视和侦察；以及物流和现代化。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3c9d83f1ce89ce88fbc4db0563e90c\" tg-width=\"1210\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed575536c4cdb7b3eefe171a50640922\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"546\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NOC 非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Allstate Corporation (ALL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>好事达公司（ALL）</b></blockquote></p><p> Founded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.</p><p><blockquote>ALL成立于1931年，总部位于伊利诺伊州诺斯布鲁克，是一家在美国和加拿大从事财产责任保险和人寿保险的控股公司。该公司销售的保险产品涵盖汽车、房屋和 Allstate、Esurance 和 Encompass 品牌下的其他财产。它还销售人寿保险以及自愿意外和健康保险产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d9e2dcf663b98cc621720a0351a3cf9\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8d93c9b392e2af4424e59a71fe1333c\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"551\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有非 GAAP 每股收益和支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>L3哈里斯技术公司 (LHX)</b></blockquote></p><p> LHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.</p><p><blockquote>LHX 是一家航空航天和国防技术公司，为全球政府和商业客户提供关键任务解决方案。该公司分为四个部门：综合任务系统、空间和机载系统、通信系统和航空系统。LHX成立于1895年，总部位于佛罗里达州墨尔本。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5231f6010e48ff033da34b6f76ed3e2b\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182d5456cf84b655db04ad703cc681d4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>LHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>LHX 非 GAAP 每股收益和已支付股息 (TTM)，带有股价叠加</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Concluding Remarks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结束语</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbb1e63ebd49ef16583c3992662d1c4f\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我对股息雷达中估值合理的股息增长股票进行了排名，这些股票在过去十年中保持了至少 10% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增长率。我还要求至少3%的5年期YoC。</blockquote></p><p> I own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible&nbsp;portfolio target weighting&nbsp;strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!</p><p><blockquote>我拥有本月的六只股票。除了我的所有头寸外，我的头寸都是由我的动态和灵活的投资组合目标权重策略决定的全尺寸头寸。一切都是跑输大盘，我需要增加大约 75 股才能建立一个完整的头寸。鉴于所有商品都有 18% 的折扣，现在似乎是购买商品的好时机!</blockquote></p><p> I don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我并不拥有 LHX，看起来这是一个值得考虑的有趣候选人，不过我更愿意在他们提供至少 4% 的 5 年期 YoC 年利率时开设新职位。尽管如此，LHX 的增长前景令人印象深刻，但派息率却很低，因此我将花些时间研究这只股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/dividendstrategists/dividend-ideas/7-dividend-growth-stocks-for-august-2021\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ALL":"好事达","BLK":"贝莱德","HD":"家得宝","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","NOC":"诺斯罗普格鲁曼","LHX":"L3Harris Technologies Inc","LOW":"劳氏"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/dividendstrategists/dividend-ideas/7-dividend-growth-stocks-for-august-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122614377","content_text":"These companies are delivering exceptional earnings and dividend growth, and their stocks are trading at reasonable valuations.\nLast month I started a new series that will rank selections ofDividend Radarstocks and present the seven top-ranked stocks for consideration. Dividend Radar tracks stocks trading on U.S. exchanges with dividend increase streaks of at least five years.\nEach month, I’ll consider different screens to narrow down the more than 750 Dividend Radar stocks. Screens will focus on various aspects of dividend growth investing, such as dividend yield, dividend growth rate, and stock valuation.\nThis month, I screened for stocks of companies that have delivered exceptional earnings growth over the last ten years. Additionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations and required a 5-year yield on cost (YoC) of at least 3%.\nScreening and Ranking\nEarnings and earnings growth are the foundation of dividends and dividend growth. Companies could use debt to pay dividends, such as when earnings temporarily are insufficient to cover dividend payouts. Eventually, though, that debt will have to be repaid from earnings, which, presumably and hopefully, would be sufficient to pay off debt and pay the dividend.\nPortfolio Insight provides earnings and earnings growth data that we can monitor to get a sense of a company’s ability to continue paying and increasing dividends. For this month’s article, I considered Non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rates [CAGRs] for different time frames. Here’s the specific screening formula:\nNG EPS 1Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 3Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 5Y ≥ 10% and NG EPS 10Y ≥ 10%\nAdditionally, I screened for stocks trading at reasonable valuations. What I mean by “reasonable” is based on my quality/valuation matrix, which gives preferential treatment to higher quality stocks. Essentially, I’m willing to pay a small premium for the highest quality stocks and I demand a larger discount for lower-quality stocks:\n\nI calculate Buy Below prices relative to my fair value [FV] estimates based on this quality/valuation matrix.\nFinally, I screened for stocks with a 5-year yield on cost[YoC] above 3%. This metric combines the forward yield and 5-year dividend growth rate [DGR] to determine what your dividend would be relative to today’s stock price after five years of investment, assuming the DGR is maintained.\nHere is a summary of this month’s screens in general terms:\n\nExceptional earnings for at least ten years\nReasonable current valuation\nReasonable future dividend income\n\nThe latest Dividend Radar(dated July 30, 2021) contains 762 stocks.\nApplying the first (fairly stringent) screen reduces the list to only 87 candidates. (Of these, only 20 pass the second screen and only 11 also survive the third screen).\nI ranked the candidates by sorting their quality scores (determined via DVK Quality Snapshots) in descending order and used the following metrics, in turn, to break ties:\n\nSimply Safe Dividends' Dividend Safety Scores\nS&P Credit Ratings\nDividend Yield\n\nThe tables below show the top seven stocks in rank-order.\n7 Top-Ranked Dividend Growth Stocks for August\nHere are top-ranked dividend growth stocks that pass this month’s screens:\n\nI own the six highlighted stocks in my DivGro portfolio.\nBelow, I provide a table with key metrics of interest to dividend growth investors, including the dividend increase streak (Years), the dividend Yield for a recent share Price, and the 5-year dividend growth rate (5-Yr DGR). The Chowder Number(CDN) and 5-year YoC (5-Yr YoC) are measures of a stock’s future total return and dividend income prospects, while the 5-year trailing total returns (5-Yr TTR) is a measure of the stock’s performance over the past five years.\nI also provide thefive quality indicatorsused in determining each stock's quality score (Qual), as well as my FV estimate (Fair Value) to help identify stocks that trade at favorable valuations. The discount/premium column (–Disc/+Prem) shows the discount or premium of a recent share price to my FV estimates. The last column shows my Buy Below price.\nKey metrics and fair value estimates of August’s Top 7 Dividend Growth Stocks (includes data sourced from Dividend Radar).\nI use a survey approach to derive my FV estimates. I collect FV estimates and price targets from several sources, including Morningstar and Finbox. I also estimate fair valueusing each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With several estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my FV estimate.\nNext, let's look at each stock in turn. All data and graphs are courtesy of Portfolio-Insight.com.\nThe Home Depot, Inc (HD)\nFounded in 1978 and based in Atlanta, Georgia, HD is a home improvement retailer that sells an assortment of building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products. HD provides installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me, and professional customers.\n\nHD non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nLockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)\nFounded in 1909 and headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, LMT is a global security and aerospace company engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced technology systems. LMT operates through four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.\n\nLMT non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nBlackRock, Inc. (BLK)\nBLK is an investment management company that provides a range of investment and risk management services to institutional and retail clients across the world. The company’s offerings include single and multi-asset class portfolios investing in equities, fixed income, alternatives and money market instruments. BLK was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City.\n\nLowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)\nLOW is a home improvement retailer. The company offers a complete line of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling, and home decorating. It also offers installation services through independent contractors, as well as extended protection plans and repair services. LOW was founded in 1946 and is based in Mooresville, North Carolina.\n\nLOW non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nNorthrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)\nFounded in 1939 and based in Falls Church, Virginia, NOC is a leading global security company with both government and commercial customers. NOC provides systems, products, and solutions in unmanned systems; cyber security; command, control, communications and computers intelligence; surveillance and reconnaissance; and logistics and modernization.\n\nNOC non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nThe Allstate Corporation (ALL)\nFounded in 1931 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, ALL is a holding company engaged in property-liability insurance and life insurance in the United States and Canada. The company sells insurance products covering automobiles, homes, and other properties under the Allstate, Esurance, and Encompass brand names. It also sells life insurance and voluntary accident and health insurance products.\n\nALL non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nL3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)\nLHX, an aerospace and defense technology company, provides mission-critical solutions for government and commercial customers worldwide. The company operates in four segments: Integrated Mission Systems, Space and Airborne Systems, Communication Systems, and Aviation Systems. LHX was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Florida.\n\nLHX non-GAAP EPS and dividends paid (TTM), with stock price overlay\nConcluding Remarks\n\nIn this article, I ranked reasonably valued dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar that have maintained Non-GAAP EPS growth rates of at least 10% for the past ten years. I also required a 5-year YoC of at least 3%.\nI own six of this month’s stocks. With the exception of my ALL position, my positions are all full-sized positions as determined by my dynamic and flexible portfolio target weighting strategy. ALL is underweight and I would need to add about 75 shares to make if a full-sized position. Given ALL’s 18% discount, it appears to be a good time to do so!\nI don’t own LHX and it looks like an interesting candidate to consider, though I prefer to open new positions when they offer 5-Year YoC’s of at least 4%. Nevertheless, LHX have impressive growth prospects and a low payout ratio, so I’m going to spend some time researching the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLK":0.9,"LMT":0.9,"LOW":0.9,"NOC":0.9,"HD":0.9,"ALL":0.9,"LHX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124408205,"gmtCreate":1624776404007,"gmtModify":1633948697628,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575811912571873","idStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"X","listText":"X","text":"X","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124408205","repostId":"1189436009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893041495,"gmtCreate":1628224213417,"gmtModify":1633752430804,"author":{"id":"3575811912571873","authorId":"3575811912571873","name":"Linggz_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9354834ebc76efe0645a97f992de4874","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575811912571873","idStr":"3575811912571873"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893041495","repostId":"1196684672","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196684672","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628221912,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196684672?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196684672","media":"Barrons","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% r","content":"<p>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司预计将于周六公布强劲的第二季度业绩，其中账面价值增长 7%，营业利润增长 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）在第二季度可能受益于其约 3000 亿美元股票投资组合价值的 10%，其中约一半的升值是由伯克希尔持有的最大股权苹果（AAPL）股价上涨 12% 推动的，该公司的股价超过 1200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>这一对投资组合收益的估计来自 Edward Jones 分析师 James Shanahan，他对该股给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has&nbsp;ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在最近几个季度加强了回购计划，投资者将关注账面价值、收益和股票回购。在此期间的回购总额应约为 65 亿美元，与第一季度的 66 亿美元一致。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing&nbsp;that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.</p><p><blockquote>这一对第二季度回购的估计是基于巴菲特在 6 月下旬向比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会和其他慈善机构捐赠股票后提交的 ona 文件。</blockquote></p><p> The filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.<i>Barron’s</i>calculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，截至 6 月 21 日，巴菲特在伯克希尔的持股比例为 15.8%。<i>巴伦</i>根据该数字计算该日期的股票数量，并将其与 3 月 31 日的流通股进行比较，以估算第二季度的回购量。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在 2021 年一个季度的回购量约为流通股的 1%，公司估值约为 6400 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&amp;P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on&nbsp;Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔 A 类股周四上涨 0.3%，至 421,306 美元，今年以来已上涨近 21%，超过了上涨约 18% 的标普500指数。伯克希尔流动性更强的 B 类股票周四上涨 0.5%，至 280.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones 的 Shanahan 估计，6 月 30 日每股 A 类股票的账面价值为 314,000 美元，比 3 月 31 日的水平上涨 7%。这意味着伯克希尔股票目前的交易价格约为 6 月 30 日估计账面价值的 1.3 倍，略低于五年平均市净率。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第二季度的盈利增长可能得益于其最大的单一部门伯灵顿北圣达菲公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe）以及众多工业和住房相关业务。根据 FactSet 的数据，伯克希尔的税后营业利润预计将增长 10%，达到每股 B 类股票 2.51 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有人造房屋制造商 Clayton Homes、地毯和其他地板生产商 Shaw Industries 以及油漆制造商 Benjamin Moore。伯灵顿北方铁路公司在美国西部的竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司（UNP）最近公布的第二季度经营利润比去年同期增长了 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been&nbsp;Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将有兴趣了解伯克希尔是否是第二季度股票的净买家。巴菲特在最近几个季度看到的机会有限，伯克希尔在第一季度净卖出了 30 亿美元的股票。他最近几个季度最大的收购是威瑞森通信公司（VZ）。伯克希尔拥有这家电信公司约 80 亿美元的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Is Reporting Earnings on Saturday. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>沃伦-巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司将于周六公布财报。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司预计将于周六公布强劲的第二季度业绩，其中账面价值增长 7%，营业利润增长 10%。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔（股票代码：BRK.A 和 BRK.B）在第二季度可能受益于其约 3000 亿美元股票投资组合价值的 10%，其中约一半的升值是由伯克希尔持有的最大股权苹果（AAPL）股价上涨 12% 推动的，该公司的股价超过 1200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>这一对投资组合收益的估计来自 Edward Jones 分析师 James Shanahan，他对该股给予买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has&nbsp;ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在最近几个季度加强了回购计划，投资者将关注账面价值、收益和股票回购。在此期间的回购总额应约为 65 亿美元，与第一季度的 66 亿美元一致。</blockquote></p><p> This estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing&nbsp;that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.</p><p><blockquote>这一对第二季度回购的估计是基于巴菲特在 6 月下旬向比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会和其他慈善机构捐赠股票后提交的 ona 文件。</blockquote></p><p> The filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.<i>Barron’s</i>calculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>文件显示，截至 6 月 21 日，巴菲特在伯克希尔的持股比例为 15.8%。<i>巴伦</i>根据该数字计算该日期的股票数量，并将其与 3 月 31 日的流通股进行比较，以估算第二季度的回购量。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在 2021 年一个季度的回购量约为流通股的 1%，公司估值约为 6400 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&amp;P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on&nbsp;Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔 A 类股周四上涨 0.3%，至 421,306 美元，今年以来已上涨近 21%，超过了上涨约 18% 的标普500指数。伯克希尔流动性更强的 B 类股票周四上涨 0.5%，至 280.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Shanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones 的 Shanahan 估计，6 月 30 日每股 A 类股票的账面价值为 314,000 美元，比 3 月 31 日的水平上涨 7%。这意味着伯克希尔股票目前的交易价格约为 6 月 30 日估计账面价值的 1.3 倍，略低于五年平均市净率。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第二季度的盈利增长可能得益于其最大的单一部门伯灵顿北圣达菲公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe）以及众多工业和住房相关业务。根据 FactSet 的数据，伯克希尔的税后营业利润预计将增长 10%，达到每股 B 类股票 2.51 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有人造房屋制造商 Clayton Homes、地毯和其他地板生产商 Shaw Industries 以及油漆制造商 Benjamin Moore。伯灵顿北方铁路公司在美国西部的竞争对手联合太平洋铁路公司（UNP）最近公布的第二季度经营利润比去年同期增长了 50%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been&nbsp;Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.</p><p><blockquote>投资者还将有兴趣了解伯克希尔是否是第二季度股票的净买家。巴菲特在最近几个季度看到的机会有限，伯克希尔在第一季度净卖出了 30 亿美元的股票。他最近几个季度最大的收购是威瑞森通信公司（VZ）。伯克希尔拥有这家电信公司约 80 亿美元的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-is-reporting-earnings-on-saturday-heres-what-to-expect-51628176595?mod=hp_DAY_9\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-is-reporting-earnings-on-saturday-heres-what-to-expect-51628176595?mod=hp_DAY_9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196684672","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway is expected to report strong second-quarter results on Saturday, including a 7% rise in its book value and a 10% increase in operating earnings.\nBerkshire (ticker: BRK.A and BRK.B) likely benefited in the second quarter from a 10% gain in the value of its roughly $300 billion equity portfolio, with about half that appreciation driven by a 12% increase in the share price of Apple (AAPL), Berkshire’s largest equity holding at more than $120 billion.\nThis estimate on investment portfolio gains comes from Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan who has a Buy rating on the stock.\nInvestors will be focused on book value, earnings, and stock repurchases given that CEO Warren Buffett has ramped up the buyback program in recent quarters. The buybacks in the period should total about $6.5 billion, in line with the $6.6 billion in the first quarter.\nThis estimate of second-quarter repurchases is based ona filing that Buffett made of his Berkshire holdings in late June after his annual donation of stock to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and other philanthropies.\nThe filing showed Buffett’s percentage ownership of Berkshire on June 21 stood at 15.8%.Barron’scalculated a share count for that date based on that figure and compared it with the shares outstanding on March 31 to estimate the buybacks in the second quarter.\nBerkshire’s buybacks have run at about 1% of the shares outstanding a quarter during 2021, with the company valued at about $640 billion.\nBerkshire’s class A shares, which rose 0.3%, to $421,306, on Thursday, have risen almost 21% this year, outpacing the S&P 500 index, which has gained about 18%. Berkshire’s more liquid class B shares rose 0.5%, to $280.21, on Thursday.\nShanahan of Edward Jones estimates that book value stood at $314,000 per class A shares on June 30, up 7% from the March 31 level. That would mean that Berkshire stock now trades for about 1.3 times its estimated June 30 book value, slightly below the five-year average price/book ratio.\nBerkshire’s earnings growth in the second quarter may have been powered by its largest single unit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, as well as its many industrial and housing-related businesses. Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings are expected to increase 10% to $2.51 per class B share, according to FactSet.\nBerkshire owns Clayton Homes, a maker of manufactured housing, Shaw Industries, a producer of carpet and other flooring, and Benjamin Moore, a maker of paints. Burlington Northern’s rival railroad in the western half of the country,Union Pacific(UNP), recently reported a 50% increase in second-quarter operating income relative to the year-earlier period.\nInvestors also will be interested to see whether Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks in the second quarter. Buffett has seen limited opportunities in recent quarters, and Berkshire was a net seller of $3 billion of stocks in the first quarter. His biggest purchase in recent quarters has been Verizon Communications(VZ). Berkshire owns about $8 billion of the telecom company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}