Fuffywumps的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Fuffywumps

Fuffywumps

Small potato couch

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2021-02-24

Wohoooo

The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens<blockquote>RealReal未能实现盈利，但随着经济重新开放，分析师看到了希望</blockquote>

2021-02-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏

2021-02-17

Hm

Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote>

2021-02-17

Another chance?

2021-02-09

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-09

Will it go higher?

2021-02-09

Good read

Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>

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RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>周一，the RealReal公布第四季度调整后每股亏损49美分，比华尔街预期低8美分。该公司公布营收为8460万美元，较去年同期下降13.09%，低于华尔街预期的9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal 2020年的收入因疫情而下降，但乐观地认为，随着经济继续重新开放，该公司将继续发展业务。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p><p><blockquote>the RealReal创始人、首席执行官兼董事长Julie Wainwright在电话会议上表示：“我们看到了令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，12月份GMV恢复增长，季度迄今的趋势更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这家奢侈品寄售店拥有在线和实体业务，计划在2021年开设10家新店。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">真实的</a>的扩张成本：</b>尽管分析师预计RealReal将随着供应商的扩大而改善其收入增长，但“我们确实看到21年的成本全面上升，因为：1）10家社区商店的推出，2）新亚利桑那州认证中心的开业，3）技术投资，以及4）在预期的需求增长之前增加销售招聘，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Lauren Schenk在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Raymond James分析师Aaron Kessler认为，由于业务扩张计划的高成本，RealReal在短期内可能会陷入困境，但他对该公司的长期基本面仍然持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“近期费用的增加（亚利桑那州新设施、零售扩张）可能会影响街头EBITDA预期，尽管它们应该会使公司实现更强劲的长期增长和运营杠杆。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着经济重新开放，RealReal的地位：</b>“我们认为真实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>申克说：“不仅考虑到其终端市场需求（奢侈品/服装），还考虑到其供应动态，这些电子商务品牌对重新开放的杠杆作用最大。”</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Edward Yruma认为，RealReal计划在2021年开设新的实体店将增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> “Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“邻里商店应该成为有效的营销工具，不仅可以增加供应，还可以吸引新买家。”</blockquote></p><p> Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p><p><blockquote>Needham分析师Rick Patel认为，随着客户恢复寄售，未来几个季度收入将加速增长，这将有助于RealReal增加库存。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“在过去的一年里，REAL的供应限制多于需求限制。当大流行开始时，20年4月的供应单位为(46%)，但现在呈改善趋势，2020年第四季度单位增加了13%。”说。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析师凯斯勒认为，复苏已被消化。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“虽然我们对长期基本面保持乐观（大型奢侈品市场转向线上、25%的长期增长前景、20%以上的长期EBITDA利润率），但我们认为风险回报在当前水平上更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p><p><blockquote><b>The RealReal评级、价格目标：</b>KeyBanc维持跑赢大盘评级和32美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利维持其等权重评级，并将目标价从17美元上调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p><p><blockquote>Needham维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James将其评级从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平，并维持17美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal股价收跌13.32%，报每股24.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens<blockquote>RealReal未能实现盈利，但随着经济重新开放，分析师看到了希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-24 11:56</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>RealReal Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>RealReal公司</b>（纳斯达克：REAL）股价周二走低，此前该公司公布的收益低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>周一，the RealReal公布第四季度调整后每股亏损49美分，比华尔街预期低8美分。该公司公布营收为8460万美元，较去年同期下降13.09%，低于华尔街预期的9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal 2020年的收入因疫情而下降，但乐观地认为，随着经济继续重新开放，该公司将继续发展业务。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p><p><blockquote>the RealReal创始人、首席执行官兼董事长Julie Wainwright在电话会议上表示：“我们看到了令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，12月份GMV恢复增长，季度迄今的趋势更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这家奢侈品寄售店拥有在线和实体业务，计划在2021年开设10家新店。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">真实的</a>的扩张成本：</b>尽管分析师预计RealReal将随着供应商的扩大而改善其收入增长，但“我们确实看到21年的成本全面上升，因为：1）10家社区商店的推出，2）新亚利桑那州认证中心的开业，3）技术投资，以及4）在预期的需求增长之前增加销售招聘，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Lauren Schenk在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Raymond James分析师Aaron Kessler认为，由于业务扩张计划的高成本，RealReal在短期内可能会陷入困境，但他对该公司的长期基本面仍然持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“近期费用的增加（亚利桑那州新设施、零售扩张）可能会影响街头EBITDA预期，尽管它们应该会使公司实现更强劲的长期增长和运营杠杆。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着经济重新开放，RealReal的地位：</b>“我们认为真实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>申克说：“不仅考虑到其终端市场需求（奢侈品/服装），还考虑到其供应动态，这些电子商务品牌对重新开放的杠杆作用最大。”</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Edward Yruma认为，RealReal计划在2021年开设新的实体店将增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> “Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“邻里商店应该成为有效的营销工具，不仅可以增加供应，还可以吸引新买家。”</blockquote></p><p> Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p><p><blockquote>Needham分析师Rick Patel认为，随着客户恢复寄售，未来几个季度收入将加速增长，这将有助于RealReal增加库存。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“在过去的一年里，REAL的供应限制多于需求限制。当大流行开始时，20年4月的供应单位为(46%)，但现在呈改善趋势，2020年第四季度单位增加了13%。”说。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析师凯斯勒认为，复苏已被消化。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“虽然我们对长期基本面保持乐观（大型奢侈品市场转向线上、25%的长期增长前景、20%以上的长期EBITDA利润率），但我们认为风险回报在当前水平上更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p><p><blockquote><b>The RealReal评级、价格目标：</b>KeyBanc维持跑赢大盘评级和32美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利维持其等权重评级，并将目标价从17美元上调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p><p><blockquote>Needham维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James将其评级从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平，并维持17美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal股价收跌13.32%，报每股24.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REAL":"The RealReal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2113835326","content_text":"RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.\nOn Monday, the RealReal reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.\nRealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.\n“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.\nThe luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.\nThe RealReal’s Expansion Costs: Although analysts expect the RealReal to improve its revenue growth as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.\nAlthough Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.\n“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens: “We see REAL as one of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.\nKeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.\n“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said\nNeedham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal boost its inventory.\n“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.\nRaymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.\n“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal Ratings, Price Targets: KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.\nMorgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.\nNeedham maintained a Hold rating.\nRaymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.\nRealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"REAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369478734,"gmtCreate":1614073581528,"gmtModify":1634551297733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da01e58b6981ccd69f16378236e55e9","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369478734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385511199,"gmtCreate":1613563212911,"gmtModify":1634553146285,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hm","listText":"Hm","text":"Hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385511199","repostId":"1195476575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195476575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613555269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195476575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195476575","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S.","content":"<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public</p><p><blockquote>指数共同基金和ETF如何在公司上市时获取强劲收益</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.&nbsp; Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.&nbsp; The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，美国IPO（首次公开募股）市场非常火爆。不包括特殊目的收购工具，去年美国IPO筹集了830亿美元的总收益。这些IPO的价格在交易首日平均上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.&nbsp; Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些高回报，指数基金——包括共同基金和交易所交易基金——几乎从未以首次发行价购买IPO。相反，指数基金等到IPO股票被添加到相关指数的日期附近才购买IPO股票——通常是在IPO后六个月至一年内的季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Yet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.&nbsp; For example, the price of Tesla&nbsp;spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&amp;P500.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着任何IPO指数纳入日期的临近，其价格通常会因预期会出现大量购买而飙升，从而推高指数基金必须为该股票支付的价格。例如，一旦特斯拉有可能被纳入标准普尔500指数，该公司的价格就会飙升。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.&nbsp; Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index&nbsp;to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我概述了2010年至2018年关于IPO高初始回报的数据，以及阻碍指数基金在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO的担忧。然后，我提出了一个开创性的建议——允许任何跟踪罗素1000指数的指数基金通过早期购买IPO来满足这些担忧，当且仅当IPO相对于指数规模较大时。</blockquote></p><p> Like many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing&nbsp;found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.&nbsp; For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他研究一样，我与两位指数专家合著的研究发现，IPO股价在交易的第一天就有很高的回报。在第一个交易日之后，该研究通过一种称为指数调整表现（IAP）的衡量标准评估了IPO回报，即证券的总回报与指数从交易第一天的收盘价到随后任何一天的收盘价的总回报之间的差额。例如，正的IAP表明，从第一个交易日收盘到IPO被纳入相关指数之日，IPO的表现优于指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.&nbsp; Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.</p><p><blockquote>该研究计算了2010年1月至2018年12月9年间所有932家美国IPO的这两个回报指标。在这932家IPO中，有115家在交易的前六个月内被纳入罗素1000指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.&nbsp; The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.&nbsp; IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究使用了罗素1000指数，因为它包括了美国股市所有上市股票总市值的92%。罗素1000指数包含了按市值排名前1000的美国公开交易公司。严格根据其市值，IPO在每个季度末被考虑纳入。</blockquote></p><p> The first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%. &nbsp;Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这115家IPO的首日回报率非常高——平均为22%，中位数为10%。同样，研究发现了罗素1000指数中这115家IPO的IAP，发现了积极的趋势——IPO和指数纳入日期之间的平均IAP为6.89%，中位数为5.24%。</blockquote></p><p> Both of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.&nbsp; The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.&nbsp; Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这两种趋势都表明，指数基金可以通过在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO来产生超额回报。最大的回报可以通过以初始发行价购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现。指数基金也可以通过在IPO首日交易后购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现显著的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks in the returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回报中的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Index funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>指数基金将面临与这种早期购买IPO相关的几个风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.&nbsp; An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.&nbsp; In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>首先，也是最重要的一点，没有人知道哪些IPO会在IPO时被添加到指数中。指数基金可能会购买没有被添加到指数中的IPO股票。在这种情况下，该基金将不得不出售IPO股票，可能会亏本出售。IPO股票的价格将会下跌，因为当该股票被添加到指数中时，不再需要其他指数基金购买该股票。</blockquote></p><p> A second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public.&nbsp;Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>第二个担忧是，指数基金在IPO中不会获得足够大的配置来反映该股在指数中的未来地位——例如，当一家受欢迎的科技公司上市时。即便如此，指数基金仍然可以通过在IPO后的第二天购买更多此类股票并持有该股票直到其被纳入指数来产生超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> Third, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.&nbsp; Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.&nbsp; But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.</p><p><blockquote>第三，由于指数基金将持有不包括在指数中的股票——至少在几个月内——该基金将经历跟踪误差。当指数基金投资组合的回报与其基准指数的回报存在重大差异时，就会出现跟踪误差。但如果该基金跑赢了它旨在跟踪的指数，投资者可能不会过度担心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Of course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种指数基金的招股说明书必须明确，它将在首次公开募股和首日交易后购买股票。招股说明书还应描述基金在首次公开募股纳入指数之前购买所涉及的风险。</blockquote></p><p> To mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index. &nbsp; Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.</p><p><blockquote>为了减轻最重要的风险——IPO不会被纳入指数——我建议指数基金只有在IPO在罗素1000指数中的预期权重相对较大的情况下才应该购买IPO。预期权重等于IPO筹集的总收益除以指数中自由交易股票的总流通量。由于罗素1000指数由市值排名前1000的美国公司组成，IPO相对于该指数的规模越大，IPO被加入该指数的可能性就越大。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.&nbsp; In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.&nbsp; In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略可以通过调整早期购买IPO的规模阈值来适应指数基金不同的风险承受能力。在保守策略中，指数基金将只购买指数中预期权重最大的IPO，因为它们最有可能被纳入指数。相比之下，在更激进的策略中，购买IPO的规模阈值会更低。</blockquote></p><p> The study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)</p><p><blockquote>该研究考察了风险偏好的三个阈值，根据IPO在指数中的预期权重来定义：保守1.0个基点；务实为0.75个基点，进取为0.50个基点。（一个基点等于1%的1/100）</blockquote></p><p> The results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.</p><p><blockquote>下表总结的结果表明，在2010年至2018年期间，该策略将成功产生超额回报，而不会产生重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> For example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.&nbsp; Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在保守策略下本应在此期间购买的最大IPO 100%在前六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了15%以上的超额回报。在激进策略下，本应在此期间购买的88%的IPO在六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了接近17%的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc52461985f7a3ca10fac53ba2ccf05\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> My recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是，基于罗素1000指数的指数基金在首次发行时购买相对较大的IPO，或者如有必要，在第一天交易后立即购买。尽管此类IPO随后不会被纳入该指数的风险不大，但该策略的超额回报超过了风险。</blockquote></p><p> I would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle.&nbsp;I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&amp;P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.</p><p><blockquote>我不建议任何指数基金使用这种策略来购买通过将私人公司与特殊收购工具合并而实现的IPO。我也不建议任何基于其他指数的指数基金采用这种策略，因为这些指数很难预测IPO股票何时以及是否会被纳入指数，例如标普500，纳入的股票是由一个委员会选择的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndex funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 17:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public</p><p><blockquote>指数共同基金和ETF如何在公司上市时获取强劲收益</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.&nbsp; Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.&nbsp; The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，美国IPO（首次公开募股）市场非常火爆。不包括特殊目的收购工具，去年美国IPO筹集了830亿美元的总收益。这些IPO的价格在交易首日平均上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.&nbsp; Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些高回报，指数基金——包括共同基金和交易所交易基金——几乎从未以首次发行价购买IPO。相反，指数基金等到IPO股票被添加到相关指数的日期附近才购买IPO股票——通常是在IPO后六个月至一年内的季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Yet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.&nbsp; For example, the price of Tesla&nbsp;spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&amp;P500.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着任何IPO指数纳入日期的临近，其价格通常会因预期会出现大量购买而飙升，从而推高指数基金必须为该股票支付的价格。例如，一旦特斯拉有可能被纳入标准普尔500指数，该公司的价格就会飙升。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.&nbsp; Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index&nbsp;to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我概述了2010年至2018年关于IPO高初始回报的数据，以及阻碍指数基金在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO的担忧。然后，我提出了一个开创性的建议——允许任何跟踪罗素1000指数的指数基金通过早期购买IPO来满足这些担忧，当且仅当IPO相对于指数规模较大时。</blockquote></p><p> Like many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing&nbsp;found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.&nbsp; For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他研究一样，我与两位指数专家合著的研究发现，IPO股价在交易的第一天就有很高的回报。在第一个交易日之后，该研究通过一种称为指数调整表现（IAP）的衡量标准评估了IPO回报，即证券的总回报与指数从交易第一天的收盘价到随后任何一天的收盘价的总回报之间的差额。例如，正的IAP表明，从第一个交易日收盘到IPO被纳入相关指数之日，IPO的表现优于指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.&nbsp; Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.</p><p><blockquote>该研究计算了2010年1月至2018年12月9年间所有932家美国IPO的这两个回报指标。在这932家IPO中，有115家在交易的前六个月内被纳入罗素1000指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.&nbsp; The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.&nbsp; IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究使用了罗素1000指数，因为它包括了美国股市所有上市股票总市值的92%。罗素1000指数包含了按市值排名前1000的美国公开交易公司。严格根据其市值，IPO在每个季度末被考虑纳入。</blockquote></p><p> The first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%. &nbsp;Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这115家IPO的首日回报率非常高——平均为22%，中位数为10%。同样，研究发现了罗素1000指数中这115家IPO的IAP，发现了积极的趋势——IPO和指数纳入日期之间的平均IAP为6.89%，中位数为5.24%。</blockquote></p><p> Both of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.&nbsp; The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.&nbsp; Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这两种趋势都表明，指数基金可以通过在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO来产生超额回报。最大的回报可以通过以初始发行价购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现。指数基金也可以通过在IPO首日交易后购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现显著的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks in the returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回报中的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Index funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>指数基金将面临与这种早期购买IPO相关的几个风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.&nbsp; An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.&nbsp; In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>首先，也是最重要的一点，没有人知道哪些IPO会在IPO时被添加到指数中。指数基金可能会购买没有被添加到指数中的IPO股票。在这种情况下，该基金将不得不出售IPO股票，可能会亏本出售。IPO股票的价格将会下跌，因为当该股票被添加到指数中时，不再需要其他指数基金购买该股票。</blockquote></p><p> A second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public.&nbsp;Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>第二个担忧是，指数基金在IPO中不会获得足够大的配置来反映该股在指数中的未来地位——例如，当一家受欢迎的科技公司上市时。即便如此，指数基金仍然可以通过在IPO后的第二天购买更多此类股票并持有该股票直到其被纳入指数来产生超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> Third, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.&nbsp; Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.&nbsp; But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.</p><p><blockquote>第三，由于指数基金将持有不包括在指数中的股票——至少在几个月内——该基金将经历跟踪误差。当指数基金投资组合的回报与其基准指数的回报存在重大差异时，就会出现跟踪误差。但如果该基金跑赢了它旨在跟踪的指数，投资者可能不会过度担心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Of course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种指数基金的招股说明书必须明确，它将在首次公开募股和首日交易后购买股票。招股说明书还应描述基金在首次公开募股纳入指数之前购买所涉及的风险。</blockquote></p><p> To mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index. &nbsp; Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.</p><p><blockquote>为了减轻最重要的风险——IPO不会被纳入指数——我建议指数基金只有在IPO在罗素1000指数中的预期权重相对较大的情况下才应该购买IPO。预期权重等于IPO筹集的总收益除以指数中自由交易股票的总流通量。由于罗素1000指数由市值排名前1000的美国公司组成，IPO相对于该指数的规模越大，IPO被加入该指数的可能性就越大。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.&nbsp; In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.&nbsp; In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略可以通过调整早期购买IPO的规模阈值来适应指数基金不同的风险承受能力。在保守策略中，指数基金将只购买指数中预期权重最大的IPO，因为它们最有可能被纳入指数。相比之下，在更激进的策略中，购买IPO的规模阈值会更低。</blockquote></p><p> The study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)</p><p><blockquote>该研究考察了风险偏好的三个阈值，根据IPO在指数中的预期权重来定义：保守1.0个基点；务实为0.75个基点，进取为0.50个基点。（一个基点等于1%的1/100）</blockquote></p><p> The results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.</p><p><blockquote>下表总结的结果表明，在2010年至2018年期间，该策略将成功产生超额回报，而不会产生重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> For example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.&nbsp; Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在保守策略下本应在此期间购买的最大IPO 100%在前六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了15%以上的超额回报。在激进策略下，本应在此期间购买的88%的IPO在六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了接近17%的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc52461985f7a3ca10fac53ba2ccf05\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> My recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是，基于罗素1000指数的指数基金在首次发行时购买相对较大的IPO，或者如有必要，在第一天交易后立即购买。尽管此类IPO随后不会被纳入该指数的风险不大，但该策略的超额回报超过了风险。</blockquote></p><p> I would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle.&nbsp;I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&amp;P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.</p><p><blockquote>我不建议任何指数基金使用这种策略来购买通过将私人公司与特殊收购工具合并而实现的IPO。我也不建议任何基于其他指数的指数基金采用这种策略，因为这些指数很难预测IPO股票何时以及是否会被纳入指数，例如标普500，纳入的股票是由一个委员会选择的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1195476575","content_text":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.  Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.  The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.\nDespite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.  Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.\nYet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.  For example, the price of Tesla spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&P500.\nIn this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.  Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.\nLike many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.  For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.\nThe study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.  Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.\nThe study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.  The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.  IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.\nThe first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%.  Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.\nBoth of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.  The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.  Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.\nRisks in the returns\nIndex funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.\nFirst, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.  An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.  In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.\nA second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public. Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.\nThird, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.  Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.  But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.\nOf course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.\nTo mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index.   Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.\nThis strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.  In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.  In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.\nThe study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)\nThe results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.\nFor example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.  Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.\n\nMy recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.\nI would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle. I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385513290,"gmtCreate":1613563178610,"gmtModify":1634553146733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","listText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","text":"Another chance?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa06d6561638ba968b0d803bec980c48","width":"1125","height":"3437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385513290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008157,"gmtCreate":1612802643479,"gmtModify":1703765356384,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008157","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008000,"gmtCreate":1612802591400,"gmtModify":1703765355690,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it go higher?","listText":"Will it go higher?","text":"Will it go higher?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57441646688310e0751ae3f8aa9ff3d9","width":"750","height":"1819"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383000107,"gmtCreate":1612802177009,"gmtModify":1703765350353,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575853838461107","idStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383000107","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GME":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363243321,"gmtCreate":1614146130463,"gmtModify":1634550986672,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wohoooo","listText":"Wohoooo","text":"Wohoooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363243321","repostId":"2113835326","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2113835326","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1614138972,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2113835326?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens<blockquote>RealReal未能实现盈利，但随着经济重新开放，分析师看到了希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2113835326","media":"Benzinga","summary":"RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings tha","content":"<p><b>RealReal Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>RealReal公司</b>（纳斯达克：REAL）股价周二走低，此前该公司公布的收益低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>周一，the RealReal公布第四季度调整后每股亏损49美分，比华尔街预期低8美分。该公司公布营收为8460万美元，较去年同期下降13.09%，低于华尔街预期的9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal 2020年的收入因疫情而下降，但乐观地认为，随着经济继续重新开放，该公司将继续发展业务。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p><p><blockquote>the RealReal创始人、首席执行官兼董事长Julie Wainwright在电话会议上表示：“我们看到了令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，12月份GMV恢复增长，季度迄今的趋势更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这家奢侈品寄售店拥有在线和实体业务，计划在2021年开设10家新店。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">真实的</a>的扩张成本：</b>尽管分析师预计RealReal将随着供应商的扩大而改善其收入增长，但“我们确实看到21年的成本全面上升，因为：1）10家社区商店的推出，2）新亚利桑那州认证中心的开业，3）技术投资，以及4）在预期的需求增长之前增加销售招聘，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Lauren Schenk在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Raymond James分析师Aaron Kessler认为，由于业务扩张计划的高成本，RealReal在短期内可能会陷入困境，但他对该公司的长期基本面仍然持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“近期费用的增加（亚利桑那州新设施、零售扩张）可能会影响街头EBITDA预期，尽管它们应该会使公司实现更强劲的长期增长和运营杠杆。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着经济重新开放，RealReal的地位：</b>“我们认为真实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>申克说：“不仅考虑到其终端市场需求（奢侈品/服装），还考虑到其供应动态，这些电子商务品牌对重新开放的杠杆作用最大。”</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Edward Yruma认为，RealReal计划在2021年开设新的实体店将增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> “Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“邻里商店应该成为有效的营销工具，不仅可以增加供应，还可以吸引新买家。”</blockquote></p><p> Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p><p><blockquote>Needham分析师Rick Patel认为，随着客户恢复寄售，未来几个季度收入将加速增长，这将有助于RealReal增加库存。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“在过去的一年里，REAL的供应限制多于需求限制。当大流行开始时，20年4月的供应单位为(46%)，但现在呈改善趋势，2020年第四季度单位增加了13%。”说。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析师凯斯勒认为，复苏已被消化。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“虽然我们对长期基本面保持乐观（大型奢侈品市场转向线上、25%的长期增长前景、20%以上的长期EBITDA利润率），但我们认为风险回报在当前水平上更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p><p><blockquote><b>The RealReal评级、价格目标：</b>KeyBanc维持跑赢大盘评级和32美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利维持其等权重评级，并将目标价从17美元上调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p><p><blockquote>Needham维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James将其评级从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平，并维持17美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal股价收跌13.32%，报每股24.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe RealReal Missed On Earnings, But Analysts See Hope As Economy Reopens<blockquote>RealReal未能实现盈利，但随着经济重新开放，分析师看到了希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-24 11:56</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>RealReal Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>RealReal公司</b>（纳斯达克：REAL）股价周二走低，此前该公司公布的收益低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the RealReal&nbsp;reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company&nbsp;reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.</p><p><blockquote>周一，the RealReal公布第四季度调整后每股亏损49美分，比华尔街预期低8美分。该公司公布营收为8460万美元，较去年同期下降13.09%，低于华尔街预期的9400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal 2020年的收入因疫情而下降，但乐观地认为，随着经济继续重新开放，该公司将继续发展业务。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and&nbsp;chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.</p><p><blockquote>the RealReal创始人、首席执行官兼董事长Julie Wainwright在电话会议上表示：“我们看到了令人鼓舞的复苏迹象，12月份GMV恢复增长，季度迄今的趋势更加强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> The luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这家奢侈品寄售店拥有在线和实体业务，计划在2021年开设10家新店。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">The RealReal</a>’s Expansion Costs:</b> Although analysts expect the RealReal&nbsp;to improve its revenue growth&nbsp;as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">真实的</a>的扩张成本：</b>尽管分析师预计RealReal将随着供应商的扩大而改善其收入增长，但“我们确实看到21年的成本全面上升，因为：1）10家社区商店的推出，2）新亚利桑那州认证中心的开业，3）技术投资，以及4）在预期的需求增长之前增加销售招聘，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Lauren Schenk在一份报告中表示。</blockquote></p><p> Although Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal&nbsp;may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Raymond James分析师Aaron Kessler认为，由于业务扩张计划的高成本，RealReal在短期内可能会陷入困境，但他对该公司的长期基本面仍然持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> “Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“近期费用的增加（亚利桑那州新设施、零售扩张）可能会影响街头EBITDA预期，尽管它们应该会使公司实现更强劲的长期增长和运营杠杆。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens:</b> “We see REAL as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.</p><p><blockquote><b>随着经济重新开放，RealReal的地位：</b>“我们认为真实是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>申克说：“不仅考虑到其终端市场需求（奢侈品/服装），还考虑到其供应动态，这些电子商务品牌对重新开放的杠杆作用最大。”</blockquote></p><p> KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal&nbsp;planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>KeyBanc分析师Edward Yruma认为，RealReal计划在2021年开设新的实体店将增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> “Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示：“邻里商店应该成为有效的营销工具，不仅可以增加供应，还可以吸引新买家。”</blockquote></p><p> Needham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal&nbsp;boost its inventory.</p><p><blockquote>Needham分析师Rick Patel认为，随着客户恢复寄售，未来几个季度收入将加速增长，这将有助于RealReal增加库存。</blockquote></p><p> “Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“在过去的一年里，REAL的供应限制多于需求限制。当大流行开始时，20年4月的供应单位为(46%)，但现在呈改善趋势，2020年第四季度单位增加了13%。”说。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯分析师凯斯勒认为，复苏已被消化。</blockquote></p><p> “While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师表示：“虽然我们对长期基本面保持乐观（大型奢侈品市场转向线上、25%的长期增长前景、20%以上的长期EBITDA利润率），但我们认为风险回报在当前水平上更加平衡。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The RealReal Ratings, Price Targets:</b>&nbsp;KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.</p><p><blockquote><b>The RealReal评级、价格目标：</b>KeyBanc维持跑赢大盘评级和32美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利维持其等权重评级，并将目标价从17美元上调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> Needham maintained a Hold rating.</p><p><blockquote>Needham维持持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James将其评级从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平，并维持17美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> RealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.</p><p><blockquote>RealReal股价收跌13.32%，报每股24.82美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9d9d0ea8ca2f4768fd7d380c08ef7a\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"243\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REAL":"The RealReal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2113835326","content_text":"RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) shares were trading lower Tuesday after the company reported earnings that missed expectations.\nOn Monday, the RealReal reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 49 cents per share, missing the Street estimate by eight cents. The company reported revenue of $84.6 million, down 13.09% compared to the same period last year, missing the Street estimate of $94 million.\nRealReal saw declining revenues in 2020 brought on by the pandemic but is optimistic it will continue to grow its business as the economy continues to reopen.\n“We are seeing encouraging signs of recovery, with December GMV back to growth and quarter-to-date trends even stronger,” Julie Wainwright, founder, CEO and chairperson of the RealReal said on a conference call.\nThe luxury consignment store, which has an online and brick-and-mortar footprint, plans to open 10 new stores in 2021.\nThe RealReal’s Expansion Costs: Although analysts expect the RealReal to improve its revenue growth as it expands its vendors, “We do see higher costs across the board in '21 given: 1) The rollout of 10 neighborhood stores, 2) the opening of the new Arizona authentication center, 3) investments in technology, and 4) increased sales hiring ahead of the expected demand increase,” Morgan Stanley analyst Lauren Schenk said in a note.\nAlthough Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler believes the RealReal may struggle in the near-term, due to the high costs of its business expansion plans, he remains positive on the company’s fundamentals long-term.\n“Elevated near-term expenses (new Arizona facility, retail expansion) will likely weigh on street EBITDA estimates though they should position the company for stronger long-term growth and operating leverage,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal's Position As The Economy Reopens: “We see REAL as one of the ecommerce names most levered to the reopening given not only its end market demand (luxury/apparel), but also its supply dynamics,” Schenk said.\nKeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma sees increased revenue coming from the RealReal planned opening of the new brick-and-mortar stores in 2021.\n“Neighborhood stores should serve as effective marketing tools not only for increasing supply, but also for attracting new buyers,” the analyst said\nNeedham analyst Rick Patel believes revenue will accelerate over the next few quarters as customers return to consigning, which will help the RealReal boost its inventory.\n“Over the past year, REAL has been more supply constrained than demand constrained. When the pandemic began, supply units were (46%) in April ’20 but are now on an improving trend with 4Q20 units +13%,” the analyst said.\nRaymond James analyst Kessler believes the recovery is priced in.\n“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals (large luxury goods market shifting online, 25% longterm growth outlook, 20%+ long-term EBITDA margins), we believe risk reward is more balanced at current levels,” the analyst said.\nThe RealReal Ratings, Price Targets: KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and price target of $32.\nMorgan Stanley maintained its Equal-weight rating and increased its price target from $17 to $25.\nNeedham maintained a Hold rating.\nRaymond James downgraded its rating from Outperform to Market Perform and maintained a price target of $17.\nRealReal's stock closed down 13.32% at $24.82 per share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"REAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369478734,"gmtCreate":1614073581528,"gmtModify":1634551297733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully 🙏","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully 🙏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9da01e58b6981ccd69f16378236e55e9","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369478734","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385511199,"gmtCreate":1613563212911,"gmtModify":1634553146285,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hm","listText":"Hm","text":"Hm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385511199","repostId":"1195476575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195476575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613555269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195476575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-17 17:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195476575","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S.","content":"<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public</p><p><blockquote>指数共同基金和ETF如何在公司上市时获取强劲收益</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.&nbsp; Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.&nbsp; The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，美国IPO（首次公开募股）市场非常火爆。不包括特殊目的收购工具，去年美国IPO筹集了830亿美元的总收益。这些IPO的价格在交易首日平均上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.&nbsp; Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些高回报，指数基金——包括共同基金和交易所交易基金——几乎从未以首次发行价购买IPO。相反，指数基金等到IPO股票被添加到相关指数的日期附近才购买IPO股票——通常是在IPO后六个月至一年内的季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Yet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.&nbsp; For example, the price of Tesla&nbsp;spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&amp;P500.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着任何IPO指数纳入日期的临近，其价格通常会因预期会出现大量购买而飙升，从而推高指数基金必须为该股票支付的价格。例如，一旦特斯拉有可能被纳入标准普尔500指数，该公司的价格就会飙升。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.&nbsp; Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index&nbsp;to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我概述了2010年至2018年关于IPO高初始回报的数据，以及阻碍指数基金在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO的担忧。然后，我提出了一个开创性的建议——允许任何跟踪罗素1000指数的指数基金通过早期购买IPO来满足这些担忧，当且仅当IPO相对于指数规模较大时。</blockquote></p><p> Like many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing&nbsp;found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.&nbsp; For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他研究一样，我与两位指数专家合著的研究发现，IPO股价在交易的第一天就有很高的回报。在第一个交易日之后，该研究通过一种称为指数调整表现（IAP）的衡量标准评估了IPO回报，即证券的总回报与指数从交易第一天的收盘价到随后任何一天的收盘价的总回报之间的差额。例如，正的IAP表明，从第一个交易日收盘到IPO被纳入相关指数之日，IPO的表现优于指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.&nbsp; Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.</p><p><blockquote>该研究计算了2010年1月至2018年12月9年间所有932家美国IPO的这两个回报指标。在这932家IPO中，有115家在交易的前六个月内被纳入罗素1000指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.&nbsp; The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.&nbsp; IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究使用了罗素1000指数，因为它包括了美国股市所有上市股票总市值的92%。罗素1000指数包含了按市值排名前1000的美国公开交易公司。严格根据其市值，IPO在每个季度末被考虑纳入。</blockquote></p><p> The first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%. &nbsp;Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这115家IPO的首日回报率非常高——平均为22%，中位数为10%。同样，研究发现了罗素1000指数中这115家IPO的IAP，发现了积极的趋势——IPO和指数纳入日期之间的平均IAP为6.89%，中位数为5.24%。</blockquote></p><p> Both of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.&nbsp; The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.&nbsp; Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这两种趋势都表明，指数基金可以通过在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO来产生超额回报。最大的回报可以通过以初始发行价购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现。指数基金也可以通过在IPO首日交易后购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现显著的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks in the returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回报中的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Index funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>指数基金将面临与这种早期购买IPO相关的几个风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.&nbsp; An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.&nbsp; In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>首先，也是最重要的一点，没有人知道哪些IPO会在IPO时被添加到指数中。指数基金可能会购买没有被添加到指数中的IPO股票。在这种情况下，该基金将不得不出售IPO股票，可能会亏本出售。IPO股票的价格将会下跌，因为当该股票被添加到指数中时，不再需要其他指数基金购买该股票。</blockquote></p><p> A second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public.&nbsp;Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>第二个担忧是，指数基金在IPO中不会获得足够大的配置来反映该股在指数中的未来地位——例如，当一家受欢迎的科技公司上市时。即便如此，指数基金仍然可以通过在IPO后的第二天购买更多此类股票并持有该股票直到其被纳入指数来产生超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> Third, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.&nbsp; Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.&nbsp; But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.</p><p><blockquote>第三，由于指数基金将持有不包括在指数中的股票——至少在几个月内——该基金将经历跟踪误差。当指数基金投资组合的回报与其基准指数的回报存在重大差异时，就会出现跟踪误差。但如果该基金跑赢了它旨在跟踪的指数，投资者可能不会过度担心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Of course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种指数基金的招股说明书必须明确，它将在首次公开募股和首日交易后购买股票。招股说明书还应描述基金在首次公开募股纳入指数之前购买所涉及的风险。</blockquote></p><p> To mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index. &nbsp; Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.</p><p><blockquote>为了减轻最重要的风险——IPO不会被纳入指数——我建议指数基金只有在IPO在罗素1000指数中的预期权重相对较大的情况下才应该购买IPO。预期权重等于IPO筹集的总收益除以指数中自由交易股票的总流通量。由于罗素1000指数由市值排名前1000的美国公司组成，IPO相对于该指数的规模越大，IPO被加入该指数的可能性就越大。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.&nbsp; In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.&nbsp; In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略可以通过调整早期购买IPO的规模阈值来适应指数基金不同的风险承受能力。在保守策略中，指数基金将只购买指数中预期权重最大的IPO，因为它们最有可能被纳入指数。相比之下，在更激进的策略中，购买IPO的规模阈值会更低。</blockquote></p><p> The study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)</p><p><blockquote>该研究考察了风险偏好的三个阈值，根据IPO在指数中的预期权重来定义：保守1.0个基点；务实为0.75个基点，进取为0.50个基点。（一个基点等于1%的1/100）</blockquote></p><p> The results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.</p><p><blockquote>下表总结的结果表明，在2010年至2018年期间，该策略将成功产生超额回报，而不会产生重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> For example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.&nbsp; Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在保守策略下本应在此期间购买的最大IPO 100%在前六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了15%以上的超额回报。在激进策略下，本应在此期间购买的88%的IPO在六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了接近17%的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc52461985f7a3ca10fac53ba2ccf05\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> My recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是，基于罗素1000指数的指数基金在首次发行时购买相对较大的IPO，或者如有必要，在第一天交易后立即购买。尽管此类IPO随后不会被纳入该指数的风险不大，但该策略的超额回报超过了风险。</blockquote></p><p> I would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle.&nbsp;I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&amp;P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.</p><p><blockquote>我不建议任何指数基金使用这种策略来购买通过将私人公司与特殊收购工具合并而实现的IPO。我也不建议任何基于其他指数的指数基金采用这种策略，因为这些指数很难预测IPO股票何时以及是否会被纳入指数，例如标普500，纳入的股票是由一个委员会选择的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Index funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndex funds don’t buy IPOs but here’s why they should<blockquote>指数基金不购买首次公开募股，但这就是为什么它们应该购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-17 17:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public</p><p><blockquote>指数共同基金和ETF如何在公司上市时获取强劲收益</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.&nbsp; Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.&nbsp; The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，美国IPO（首次公开募股）市场非常火爆。不包括特殊目的收购工具，去年美国IPO筹集了830亿美元的总收益。这些IPO的价格在交易首日平均上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.&nbsp; Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些高回报，指数基金——包括共同基金和交易所交易基金——几乎从未以首次发行价购买IPO。相反，指数基金等到IPO股票被添加到相关指数的日期附近才购买IPO股票——通常是在IPO后六个月至一年内的季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Yet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.&nbsp; For example, the price of Tesla&nbsp;spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&amp;P500.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着任何IPO指数纳入日期的临近，其价格通常会因预期会出现大量购买而飙升，从而推高指数基金必须为该股票支付的价格。例如，一旦特斯拉有可能被纳入标准普尔500指数，该公司的价格就会飙升。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.&nbsp; Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index&nbsp;to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我概述了2010年至2018年关于IPO高初始回报的数据，以及阻碍指数基金在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO的担忧。然后，我提出了一个开创性的建议——允许任何跟踪罗素1000指数的指数基金通过早期购买IPO来满足这些担忧，当且仅当IPO相对于指数规模较大时。</blockquote></p><p> Like many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing&nbsp;found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.&nbsp; For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他研究一样，我与两位指数专家合著的研究发现，IPO股价在交易的第一天就有很高的回报。在第一个交易日之后，该研究通过一种称为指数调整表现（IAP）的衡量标准评估了IPO回报，即证券的总回报与指数从交易第一天的收盘价到随后任何一天的收盘价的总回报之间的差额。例如，正的IAP表明，从第一个交易日收盘到IPO被纳入相关指数之日，IPO的表现优于指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.&nbsp; Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.</p><p><blockquote>该研究计算了2010年1月至2018年12月9年间所有932家美国IPO的这两个回报指标。在这932家IPO中，有115家在交易的前六个月内被纳入罗素1000指数。</blockquote></p><p> The study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.&nbsp; The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.&nbsp; IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.</p><p><blockquote>这项研究使用了罗素1000指数，因为它包括了美国股市所有上市股票总市值的92%。罗素1000指数包含了按市值排名前1000的美国公开交易公司。严格根据其市值，IPO在每个季度末被考虑纳入。</blockquote></p><p> The first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%. &nbsp;Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这115家IPO的首日回报率非常高——平均为22%，中位数为10%。同样，研究发现了罗素1000指数中这115家IPO的IAP，发现了积极的趋势——IPO和指数纳入日期之间的平均IAP为6.89%，中位数为5.24%。</blockquote></p><p> Both of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.&nbsp; The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.&nbsp; Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.</p><p><blockquote>这两种趋势都表明，指数基金可以通过在IPO被纳入指数之前购买IPO来产生超额回报。最大的回报可以通过以初始发行价购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现。指数基金也可以通过在IPO首日交易后购买IPO并持有至指数纳入日来实现显著的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks in the returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回报中的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Index funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.</p><p><blockquote>指数基金将面临与这种早期购买IPO相关的几个风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.&nbsp; An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.&nbsp; In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>首先，也是最重要的一点，没有人知道哪些IPO会在IPO时被添加到指数中。指数基金可能会购买没有被添加到指数中的IPO股票。在这种情况下，该基金将不得不出售IPO股票，可能会亏本出售。IPO股票的价格将会下跌，因为当该股票被添加到指数中时，不再需要其他指数基金购买该股票。</blockquote></p><p> A second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public.&nbsp;Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.</p><p><blockquote>第二个担忧是，指数基金在IPO中不会获得足够大的配置来反映该股在指数中的未来地位——例如，当一家受欢迎的科技公司上市时。即便如此，指数基金仍然可以通过在IPO后的第二天购买更多此类股票并持有该股票直到其被纳入指数来产生超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> Third, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.&nbsp; Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.&nbsp; But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.</p><p><blockquote>第三，由于指数基金将持有不包括在指数中的股票——至少在几个月内——该基金将经历跟踪误差。当指数基金投资组合的回报与其基准指数的回报存在重大差异时，就会出现跟踪误差。但如果该基金跑赢了它旨在跟踪的指数，投资者可能不会过度担心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Of course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这种指数基金的招股说明书必须明确，它将在首次公开募股和首日交易后购买股票。招股说明书还应描述基金在首次公开募股纳入指数之前购买所涉及的风险。</blockquote></p><p> To mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index. &nbsp; Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.</p><p><blockquote>为了减轻最重要的风险——IPO不会被纳入指数——我建议指数基金只有在IPO在罗素1000指数中的预期权重相对较大的情况下才应该购买IPO。预期权重等于IPO筹集的总收益除以指数中自由交易股票的总流通量。由于罗素1000指数由市值排名前1000的美国公司组成，IPO相对于该指数的规模越大，IPO被加入该指数的可能性就越大。</blockquote></p><p> This strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.&nbsp; In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.&nbsp; In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.</p><p><blockquote>这种策略可以通过调整早期购买IPO的规模阈值来适应指数基金不同的风险承受能力。在保守策略中，指数基金将只购买指数中预期权重最大的IPO，因为它们最有可能被纳入指数。相比之下，在更激进的策略中，购买IPO的规模阈值会更低。</blockquote></p><p> The study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)</p><p><blockquote>该研究考察了风险偏好的三个阈值，根据IPO在指数中的预期权重来定义：保守1.0个基点；务实为0.75个基点，进取为0.50个基点。（一个基点等于1%的1/100）</blockquote></p><p> The results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.</p><p><blockquote>下表总结的结果表明，在2010年至2018年期间，该策略将成功产生超额回报，而不会产生重大风险。</blockquote></p><p> For example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.&nbsp; Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在保守策略下本应在此期间购买的最大IPO 100%在前六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了15%以上的超额回报。在激进策略下，本应在此期间购买的88%的IPO在六个月内被纳入指数，并产生了接近17%的超额回报。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fc52461985f7a3ca10fac53ba2ccf05\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> My recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.</p><p><blockquote>我的建议是，基于罗素1000指数的指数基金在首次发行时购买相对较大的IPO，或者如有必要，在第一天交易后立即购买。尽管此类IPO随后不会被纳入该指数的风险不大，但该策略的超额回报超过了风险。</blockquote></p><p> I would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle.&nbsp;I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&amp;P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.</p><p><blockquote>我不建议任何指数基金使用这种策略来购买通过将私人公司与特殊收购工具合并而实现的IPO。我也不建议任何基于其他指数的指数基金采用这种策略，因为这些指数很难预测IPO股票何时以及是否会被纳入指数，例如标普500，纳入的股票是由一个委员会选择的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/index-funds-dont-buy-ipos-but-heres-why-they-should-11613194940?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1195476575","content_text":"How indexed mutual funds and ETFs can capture the powerful gains when a company goes public\nThe U.S. market for IPOs (initial public offerings) was red hot in 2020.  Excluding special purpose acquisition vehicles, U.S. IPOs last year raised $83 billion in gross proceeds.  The prices of these IPOs jumped during the initial day of trading by 36% on average.\nDespite these high returns, index funds — including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds — almost never bought IPOs at their initial offering price.  Instead, index funds waited to buy IPO stocks until near the date on which they were added to the relevant index — typically at the end of a quarter within six months to a year after the IPO.\nYet as the index inclusion date nears for any IPO, its price typically surges in anticipation of a barrage of purchases — driving up the price that index funds must pay for that stock.  For example, the price of Tesla spiked once it became likely that the company would be added to the S&P500.\nIn this article, I outline the data from 2010 to 2018 about the high initial returns for IPOs as well as the concerns holding back index funds from buying IPOs before they are included in the index.  Then, I make a path-breaking proposal — allowing any index fund that tracks the Russell 1000 Index to meet these concerns by early buying of IPOs if, and only if, they are large relative to the size of the index.\nLike many other studies,the study that I co-authored with two experts on indexing found high returns in IPO stock prices during the initial day of trading. After this initial day of trading, the study evaluated IPO returns by a measure known as the index-adjusted performance (IAP) — the difference between the total return of the security and the total return of the index from the closing price on the first day of trading to the closing price of any following day.  For example, a positive IAP would signal that an IPO has outperformed the index from the close of the first day of trading until the date the IPO is included in the relevant index.\nThe study calculated these two metrics of returns for all 932 U.S. IPOs offered in the nine years between January 2010 and December 2018.  Of these 932 IPOs, 115 were included in the Russell 1000 within the first six months of trading.\nThe study used the Russell 1000 because it includes 92% of the total market capitalization of all listed stocks in the U.S. equity market.  The Russell 1000 contains the top 1000 publicly traded U.S. companies according to market capitalization.  IPOs are considered for inclusion at the end of each quarter, strictly based on their market capitalization.\nThe first-day return for these 115 IPOs was highly positive — 22% on average with a median gain of 10%.  Similarly, looking at the IAP for these 115 IPOs included in the Russell 1000, the study found a positive trend — with an average IAP of 6.89% and median of 5.24% between the IPO and the index inclusion date.\nBoth of these trends show that index funds could generate excess return by buying IPOs before they are added to the index.  The greatest return could be realized by buying IPOs at the initial offering price and holding them through the index inclusion date.  Index funds could also realize significant excess returns by buying IPOs after their first day of trading and holding them through the index inclusion date.\nRisks in the returns\nIndex funds would face several risks associated with such early purchases of IPOs.\nFirst, and most importantly, no one knows which IPOs will be added to the index at the time of the IPO.  An index fund might purchase an IPO stock that doesn’t get added to the index.  In that event, the fund would have to sell the IPO stock, potentially at a loss. The price of the IPO stock would decline because there would no longer be the expectation that other index funds would be required to buy that stock when it is added to the index.\nA second concern is that an index fund would not get a large enough allocation in an IPO to reflect the stock’s future position in the index — for example, when a popular tech company goes public. Even so, an index fund can still generate excess returns by buying more of such a stock on the day following an IPO and holding that stock until it is added to the index.\nThird, since the index fund would be holding stocks that are not included in the index — at least for several months — the fund would experience tracking error.  Tracking error occurs when the returns on an index fund portfolio differ materially from those of the index it is benchmarked against.  But investors would probably not be overly concerned if the fund beat the index it was designed to track.\nOf course, the prospectus of such an index fund would have to make clear that it would be buying stocks in the initial offerings of IPOs and after their first day of trading. The prospectus should also delineate the risks involved when the fund buys IPOs before they are included in the index.\nTo mitigate the most important risk — that the IPO will not be included in the index — I recommend that index funds should purchase an IPO only if its expected weight in the Russell 1000 is relatively large. The expected weight equals the gross proceeds raised by the IPO, divided by the total freely traded float of stocks in the index.   Since the Russell 1000 Index is composed of the top 1000 U.S. companies by market capitalization, the larger the IPO is relative to the index, the more likely that the IPO will be added to that index.\nThis strategy could be adapted to varying risk tolerances of index funds by adjusting the size threshold for early purchases of an IPO.  In a conservative strategy, the index fund would purchase only IPOs with the largest expected weight in the index, since they are most likely to be included in the index.  In a more aggressive strategy, by contrast, the size threshold for buying IPOs would be lower.\nThe study examined three thresholds for risk appetite, defined in terms of the expected weight of the IPO in the index: 1.0 basis point for conservative; 0.75 basis point for pragmatic and 0.50 basis point for aggressive. (One basis point equals 1/100 of 1%)\nThe results, summarized in the table below, show that this strategy would have been successful at generating excess returns without significant risks during the period from 2010 through 2018.\nFor example, 100% of the largest IPOs that would have been purchased under the conservative strategy during this period were added to the index within the first six months and generated excess returns above 15%.  Under the aggressive strategy, 88% of the IPOs that would have been purchased during this period were included in the index within six months and generated excess returns of close to 17%.\n\nMy recommendation is that an index fund based on the Russell 1000 buy relatively large IPOs in their initial offerings or, if necessary, immediately after their first day of trading. Although there is a modest risk that such IPOs will not subsequently be included in that index, the excess returns from this strategy outweigh the risks.\nI would not recommend that any index fund use this strategy to buy an IPO effected by merging a private company with a special acquisition vehicle. I also would not recommend this strategy for any index fund based on other indices where it is more difficult to predict when and whether IPO stocks will be included in the index, such as the S&P 500, where stocks included are chosen by a committee.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":385513290,"gmtCreate":1613563178610,"gmtModify":1634553146733,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","listText":"Another chance?&nbsp;","text":"Another chance?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa06d6561638ba968b0d803bec980c48","width":"1125","height":"3437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385513290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008157,"gmtCreate":1612802643479,"gmtModify":1703765356384,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008157","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383008000,"gmtCreate":1612802591400,"gmtModify":1703765355690,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it go higher?","listText":"Will it go higher?","text":"Will it go higher?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57441646688310e0751ae3f8aa9ff3d9","width":"750","height":"1819"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383008000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383000107,"gmtCreate":1612802177009,"gmtModify":1703765350353,"author":{"id":"3575853838461107","authorId":"3575853838461107","name":"Fuffywumps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfdeff55cbef3073b838a41636894e7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575853838461107","authorIdStr":"3575853838461107"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383000107","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持您的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GME":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}