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2021-04-21

Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.

Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>

2021-04-19

Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks

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2021-04-18

This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.

Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote>

2021-04-15

Please help me to like and comment

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2021-04-14

$Apple(AAPL)$please like and comment

2021-04-14

Please help to like and comment

Snap Rises as Wedbush Sees Growth in AR, E-Commerce<blockquote>韦德布什看到 AR 和电子商务的增长，Snap上涨</blockquote>

2021-04-13

$Apple(AAPL)$booms

2021-04-12

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Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>

2021-04-12

Bitcoin too booms

Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>

2021-04-11

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-11

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-08

Help to like and comment

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2021-04-04

Please help to like and comment.

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2021-04-04

Always end with a booms

How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Bad market. Pls help to like and comment. Thanks

Here’s why Wall Street and investors aren’t giddy enough, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，这就是华尔街和投资者不够兴奋的原因</blockquote>

2021-03-30

Comment to this pls thanks

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2021-03-30

What's going on?!!! Help to like and comment pls

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2021-03-27

Stocks are weird

Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-03-27

Help to like and comment pls

Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>

2021-03-25

Has been shit for days. Help me like and comment

5 Stocks To Watch For March 25, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 3 月 25 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>

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more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","listText":"Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","text":"Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378153231","repostId":"1114709501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114709501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619012348,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114709501?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114709501","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in B","content":"<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 21:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114709501","content_text":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to German business daily.Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379441386,"gmtCreate":1618791700545,"gmtModify":1634290938281,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379441386","repostId":"2128863736","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379387952,"gmtCreate":1618676015976,"gmtModify":1634291449957,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","listText":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","text":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379387952","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧当前的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆基座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗元件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆制造厂（fabs）占全球产能的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年缺乏风暴导致供应受阻，促使政府开始对100多万家企业和居民实行供水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于德克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易：RNECF）日本工厂受到二月份地震和三月份火灾的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>台湾负责大部分芯片制造设施的三个科学工业园区不得不限制取水量，但迄今为止没有停水。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>据称，在其芯片设施之一的供应减少后，替代水源和加速保护将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中、桃园设有工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新竹的TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM 还试图利用建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM 预计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为芯片生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月份引入了干旱灾害应对机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM 的目标是到 2030 年将单位用水量比 2010 年的水平减少 30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，TSM 约占台湾 GDP 的 4.5%，芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的援助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM 股价持平于 118.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧当前的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆基座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗元件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆制造厂（fabs）占全球产能的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年缺乏风暴导致供应受阻，促使政府开始对100多万家企业和居民实行供水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于德克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易：RNECF）日本工厂受到二月份地震和三月份火灾的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>台湾负责大部分芯片制造设施的三个科学工业园区不得不限制取水量，但迄今为止没有停水。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>据称，在其芯片设施之一的供应减少后，替代水源和加速保护将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中、桃园设有工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新竹的TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM 还试图利用建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM 预计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为芯片生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月份引入了干旱灾害应对机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM 的目标是到 2030 年将单位用水量比 2010 年的水平减少 30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，TSM 约占台湾 GDP 的 4.5%，芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的援助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM 股价持平于 118.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347519359,"gmtCreate":1618500827371,"gmtModify":1634292470798,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help me to like and comment","listText":"Please help me to like and comment","text":"Please help me to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347519359","repostId":"1146658160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344508220,"gmtCreate":1618413051360,"gmtModify":1634293095021,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>please like and comment","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>please like and comment","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$please like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44dec510ddc460c1db515202b2332149","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344508220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344501259,"gmtCreate":1618412997571,"gmtModify":1634293095599,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help to like and comment","listText":"Please help to like and comment","text":"Please help to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344501259","repostId":"1166763312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166763312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618409349,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166763312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-14 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snap Rises as Wedbush Sees Growth in AR, E-Commerce<blockquote>韦德布什看到 AR 和电子商务的增长，Snap上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166763312","media":"The Street","summary":"Snap’s videocentric platform and potential to capitalize on the growth in augmented reality and soci","content":"<p>  Snap’s videocentric platform and potential to capitalize on the growth in augmented reality and social e-commerce prompt an outperform rating at Wedbush.  Snap&nbsp;(<b>SNAP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares rose on Wednesday after Wedbush initiated coverage of the photography-focused social-media company with an outperform rating and $75 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Snap以视频为中心的平台以及利用增强现实和社交电子商务增长的潜力，促使 Wedbush 获得跑赢大盘的评级。Snap（<b>SNAP</b>) -Get Report 周三上涨，此前 Wedbush 对这家专注于摄影的社交媒体公司进行了报道，给予其跑赢大盘的评级和 75 美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see Snap uniquely positioned as a videocentric platform, with an augmented reality and social commerce opportunity, also centered around a younger, digitally native audience,\" wrote Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Ygal Arounian 写道：“我们认为Snap作为一个以视频为中心的平台具有独特的定位，拥有增强现实和社交商务机会，也以年轻的数字原生受众为中心。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Snap is seeing improving momentum coming out of the pandemic, as its platform has gained traction with advertisers. Snap&nbsp;more than doubled its advertiser count year-over-year in fourth-quarter 2020, reaching its highest&nbsp;number of advertisers to date.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着Snap平台赢得了广告商的青睐，疫情后的发展势头正在好转。Snap在 2020 年第四季度的广告商数量同比增长了一倍多，达到了迄今为止的最高广告商数量。”</blockquote></p><p> Snap recently traded at $63.99, up 2.5%. The $75 target indicates 20% potential upside from Tuesday's close at $62.44.</p><p><blockquote>Snap近期交易价格为 63.99 美元，上涨 2.5%。75 美元的目标表明较周二收盘价 62.44 美元有 20% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> The Santa Monica, Calif., company has more than doubled over the past six months amid strong demand for social-media stocks.</p><p><blockquote>由于对社交媒体股票的强劲需求，这家位于加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡的公司在过去六个月里增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Last month,Bank of America analyst Justin Post downgradedthe stock to neutral from buy, cutting his price target to $67 from $78.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，美国银行分析师贾斯汀·波斯特将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从 78 美元下调至 67 美元。</blockquote></p><p> He cited valuation concerns for the social media company. It was then trading at $55.50, some 15% below current levels.</p><p><blockquote>他列举了社交媒体公司的估值问题。当时交易价格为 55.50 美元，比当前水平低约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Post said that additional multiple expansion is \"unlikely\" in coming quarters. “We think investors may become increasingly concerned on tougher [second half] comps, especially in context of a broader economy that should be accelerating.”</p><p><blockquote>波斯特表示，未来几个季度“不太可能”进行额外的倍数扩张。“我们认为，投资者可能会越来越担心（下半年）更艰难的业绩，尤其是在更广泛的经济形势应该会加速发展的背景下。”</blockquote></p><p> In February,Morgan Stanley had upgraded Snapto overweight from equal weight. \"SNAP’s use cases/engagement continue to expand,” Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，摩根士丹利将Snapto跑赢大盘的评级从同等权重上调。“摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak说：”SNAP的用例/参与度不断扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Also in February,Snap forecast a first-quarter loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, undermining a better-than-expected financial report for the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>同样在 2 月份，Snap 预测第一季度息税折旧摊销前亏损，削弱了好于预期的第四季度财务报告。</blockquote></p><p> Snap said its adjusted first-quarter loss on that basis would range from $50 million to $70 million.</p><p><blockquote>Snap表示，在此基础上调整后的第一季度亏损将在 5000 万至 7000 万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Rises as Wedbush Sees Growth in AR, E-Commerce<blockquote>韦德布什看到 AR 和电子商务的增长，Snap上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Rises as Wedbush Sees Growth in AR, E-Commerce<blockquote>韦德布什看到 AR 和电子商务的增长，Snap上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-14 22:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Snap’s videocentric platform and potential to capitalize on the growth in augmented reality and social e-commerce prompt an outperform rating at Wedbush.  Snap&nbsp;(<b>SNAP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares rose on Wednesday after Wedbush initiated coverage of the photography-focused social-media company with an outperform rating and $75 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Snap以视频为中心的平台以及利用增强现实和社交电子商务增长的潜力，促使 Wedbush 获得跑赢大盘的评级。Snap（<b>SNAP</b>) -Get Report 周三上涨，此前 Wedbush 对这家专注于摄影的社交媒体公司进行了报道，给予其跑赢大盘的评级和 75 美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> \"We see Snap uniquely positioned as a videocentric platform, with an augmented reality and social commerce opportunity, also centered around a younger, digitally native audience,\" wrote Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush 分析师 Ygal Arounian 写道：“我们认为Snap作为一个以视频为中心的平台具有独特的定位，拥有增强现实和社交商务机会，也以年轻的数字原生受众为中心。”</blockquote></p><p> \"Snap is seeing improving momentum coming out of the pandemic, as its platform has gained traction with advertisers. Snap&nbsp;more than doubled its advertiser count year-over-year in fourth-quarter 2020, reaching its highest&nbsp;number of advertisers to date.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着Snap平台赢得了广告商的青睐，疫情后的发展势头正在好转。Snap在 2020 年第四季度的广告商数量同比增长了一倍多，达到了迄今为止的最高广告商数量。”</blockquote></p><p> Snap recently traded at $63.99, up 2.5%. The $75 target indicates 20% potential upside from Tuesday's close at $62.44.</p><p><blockquote>Snap近期交易价格为 63.99 美元，上涨 2.5%。75 美元的目标表明较周二收盘价 62.44 美元有 20% 的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> The Santa Monica, Calif., company has more than doubled over the past six months amid strong demand for social-media stocks.</p><p><blockquote>由于对社交媒体股票的强劲需求，这家位于加利福尼亚州圣莫尼卡的公司在过去六个月里增长了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Last month,Bank of America analyst Justin Post downgradedthe stock to neutral from buy, cutting his price target to $67 from $78.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，美国银行分析师贾斯汀·波斯特将该股评级从买入下调至中性，并将目标价从 78 美元下调至 67 美元。</blockquote></p><p> He cited valuation concerns for the social media company. It was then trading at $55.50, some 15% below current levels.</p><p><blockquote>他列举了社交媒体公司的估值问题。当时交易价格为 55.50 美元，比当前水平低约 15%。</blockquote></p><p> Post said that additional multiple expansion is \"unlikely\" in coming quarters. “We think investors may become increasingly concerned on tougher [second half] comps, especially in context of a broader economy that should be accelerating.”</p><p><blockquote>波斯特表示，未来几个季度“不太可能”进行额外的倍数扩张。“我们认为，投资者可能会越来越担心（下半年）更艰难的业绩，尤其是在更广泛的经济形势应该会加速发展的背景下。”</blockquote></p><p> In February,Morgan Stanley had upgraded Snapto overweight from equal weight. \"SNAP’s use cases/engagement continue to expand,” Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said.</p><p><blockquote>今年2月，摩根士丹利将Snapto跑赢大盘的评级从同等权重上调。“摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak说：”SNAP的用例/参与度不断扩大。</blockquote></p><p> Also in February,Snap forecast a first-quarter loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, undermining a better-than-expected financial report for the fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>同样在 2 月份，Snap 预测第一季度息税折旧摊销前亏损，削弱了好于预期的第四季度财务报告。</blockquote></p><p> Snap said its adjusted first-quarter loss on that basis would range from $50 million to $70 million.</p><p><blockquote>Snap表示，在此基础上调整后的第一季度亏损将在 5000 万至 7000 万美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/snap-initiated-outperform-wedbush\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/snap-initiated-outperform-wedbush","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166763312","content_text":"Snap’s videocentric platform and potential to capitalize on the growth in augmented reality and social e-commerce prompt an outperform rating at Wedbush.\n\nSnap (SNAP) -Get Report shares rose on Wednesday after Wedbush initiated coverage of the photography-focused social-media company with an outperform rating and $75 price target.\n\"We see Snap uniquely positioned as a videocentric platform, with an augmented reality and social commerce opportunity, also centered around a younger, digitally native audience,\" wrote Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian.\n\"Snap is seeing improving momentum coming out of the pandemic, as its platform has gained traction with advertisers. Snap more than doubled its advertiser count year-over-year in fourth-quarter 2020, reaching its highest number of advertisers to date.\"\nSnap recently traded at $63.99, up 2.5%. The $75 target indicates 20% potential upside from Tuesday's close at $62.44.\nThe Santa Monica, Calif., company has more than doubled over the past six months amid strong demand for social-media stocks.\nLast month,Bank of America analyst Justin Post downgradedthe stock to neutral from buy, cutting his price target to $67 from $78.\nHe cited valuation concerns for the social media company. It was then trading at $55.50, some 15% below current levels.\nPost said that additional multiple expansion is \"unlikely\" in coming quarters. “We think investors may become increasingly concerned on tougher [second half] comps, especially in context of a broader economy that should be accelerating.”\nIn February,Morgan Stanley had upgraded Snapto overweight from equal weight. \"SNAP’s use cases/engagement continue to expand,” Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said.\nAlso in February,Snap forecast a first-quarter loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, undermining a better-than-expected financial report for the fourth quarter.\nSnap said its adjusted first-quarter loss on that basis would range from $50 million to $70 million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345643951,"gmtCreate":1618312883973,"gmtModify":1634293794045,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>booms","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>booms","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$booms","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff75170fa2837546611503288357116a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345643951","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342241273,"gmtCreate":1618225658692,"gmtModify":1634294336529,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342241273","repostId":"1121930993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121930993","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618224287,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121930993?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121930993","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to d","content":"<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银和黄金，以及比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because —&nbsp;unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price —&nbsp;it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst&nbsp;and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他类似价格极端上涨的热潮不同，数字货币形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫破裂后又重新膨胀。<b>泡泡不应该这样做</b>它们是如此之大的繁荣，以至于它们不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，永远不会回来。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s&nbsp;hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所导致的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在旁观者的眼中。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府支持。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，比特币的价值可能来自于它的缺席。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看 Gavekal Research Ltd. 的这张图表中黄金和国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通货膨胀时，美国国债会跑赢黄金，而当人们担心通货膨胀时，黄金会胜出。除了目前，两者都在下降：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍认为新一波再通胀增长，以及历史性的印钞量（通常是通货膨胀），但这种情况仍在发生，M2 增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们从白银的角度来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，黄金的价格已经大约减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属的价格都疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格一直在稳步上涨。过去一年经历了激增，然后又出现了逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement&nbsp;the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么，是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的Dhaval Joshi提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定实行软金本位制的几十年里，比率回到了原来的水平，只是在 50 年前布雷顿森林体系崩溃后又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由人们认为黄金是一种优越的 “反法定 ”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为人们认为黄金是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金在白银方面的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in&nbsp;scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为一种替代的反法定资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为数字货币自诞生以来就伴随着自由主义的反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，现在也更容易获得，这使其成为闪亮金属更有力的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.&nbsp;and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自字节树资产管理有限公司的 Charles Morris，显示了自去年 5 月以来持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金流量：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or&nbsp;the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但有相当一部分流入了。</b>各机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，作为对菲亚特崩溃的对冲。(另一个重要的目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管比特币在过去几个月中的走强，但谷歌对该术语的搜索量明显下降，这可能被视为散户兴趣的代表，或者通常伴随泡沫而来的那种兴奋：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” —&nbsp;or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于 “再通胀贸易 ”--或者说通胀即将到来的信念。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币更容易出现更多重大举措。关键是它们同时朝同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司 Quant Insight Ltd. 的一项更为科学的分析表明，比特币的主要敏感性在于通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡呈正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree 的 Morris 补充说，比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p>   Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.  <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数几种似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——我们为真正的成长型股票和那些享受复苏的周期性股票保留了这种资产。相反，这通常不利于黄金、防御性收益率股票和债券等传统低增长安全资产。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金最快乐。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢更强劲的经济。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过从黄金进行有节制的转移来防止货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自 2 月底大幅上涨结束以来，实际 10 年期国债收益率基本上横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin —&nbsp;which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这就是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对货币贬值和通货膨胀的担忧复苏是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们究竟应该如何估值它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为，反法定资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但没有什么比比特币在再次反弹之前定期给其持有者造成的巨大损失更好的了。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险--这意味着要从这里购买更多的比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily&nbsp;limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的提议。我用无名指上的一小块金子打这个。我确信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币做的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有什么可以依靠的。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易地限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful —&nbsp;the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，就像黄金一样，几乎没有什么可以持有的。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成新硬币的供应量会随着时间的推移而减少，价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应量的动力。网络效应也可以使货币更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越迅速，它就越成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供任何收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性扰乱了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一个不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术继续发展。就像早期被称为 “寻找问题的解决方案 ”的激光一样，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，如果不是可以通过贴现现金流分析来确定和估值的话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t&nbsp;come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺了科技股所取得的令人兴奋的增长。</b>可以理解的是，这种资产会有广泛的需求。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。不过，如果通货膨胀不能如期而至，那么不妨为比特币的再次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 18:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银和黄金，以及比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because —&nbsp;unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price —&nbsp;it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst&nbsp;and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他类似价格极端上涨的热潮不同，数字货币形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫破裂后又重新膨胀。<b>泡泡不应该这样做</b>它们是如此之大的繁荣，以至于它们不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，永远不会回来。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s&nbsp;hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所导致的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在旁观者的眼中。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府支持。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，比特币的价值可能来自于它的缺席。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看 Gavekal Research Ltd. 的这张图表中黄金和国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通货膨胀时，美国国债会跑赢黄金，而当人们担心通货膨胀时，黄金会胜出。除了目前，两者都在下降：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍认为新一波再通胀增长，以及历史性的印钞量（通常是通货膨胀），但这种情况仍在发生，M2 增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们从白银的角度来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，黄金的价格已经大约减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属的价格都疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格一直在稳步上涨。过去一年经历了激增，然后又出现了逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement&nbsp;the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么，是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的Dhaval Joshi提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定实行软金本位制的几十年里，比率回到了原来的水平，只是在 50 年前布雷顿森林体系崩溃后又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由人们认为黄金是一种优越的 “反法定 ”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为人们认为黄金是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金在白银方面的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in&nbsp;scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为一种替代的反法定资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为数字货币自诞生以来就伴随着自由主义的反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，现在也更容易获得，这使其成为闪亮金属更有力的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.&nbsp;and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自字节树资产管理有限公司的 Charles Morris，显示了自去年 5 月以来持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金流量：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or&nbsp;the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但有相当一部分流入了。</b>各机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，作为对菲亚特崩溃的对冲。(另一个重要的目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管比特币在过去几个月中的走强，但谷歌对该术语的搜索量明显下降，这可能被视为散户兴趣的代表，或者通常伴随泡沫而来的那种兴奋：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” —&nbsp;or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于 “再通胀贸易 ”--或者说通胀即将到来的信念。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币更容易出现更多重大举措。关键是它们同时朝同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司 Quant Insight Ltd. 的一项更为科学的分析表明，比特币的主要敏感性在于通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡呈正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree 的 Morris 补充说，比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p>   Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.  <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数几种似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——我们为真正的成长型股票和那些享受复苏的周期性股票保留了这种资产。相反，这通常不利于黄金、防御性收益率股票和债券等传统低增长安全资产。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金最快乐。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢更强劲的经济。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过从黄金进行有节制的转移来防止货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自 2 月底大幅上涨结束以来，实际 10 年期国债收益率基本上横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin —&nbsp;which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这就是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对货币贬值和通货膨胀的担忧复苏是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们究竟应该如何估值它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为，反法定资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但没有什么比比特币在再次反弹之前定期给其持有者造成的巨大损失更好的了。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险--这意味着要从这里购买更多的比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily&nbsp;limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的提议。我用无名指上的一小块金子打这个。我确信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币做的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有什么可以依靠的。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易地限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful —&nbsp;the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，就像黄金一样，几乎没有什么可以持有的。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成新硬币的供应量会随着时间的推移而减少，价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应量的动力。网络效应也可以使货币更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越迅速，它就越成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供任何收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性扰乱了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一个不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术继续发展。就像早期被称为 “寻找问题的解决方案 ”的激光一样，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，如果不是可以通过贴现现金流分析来确定和估值的话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t&nbsp;come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺了科技股所取得的令人兴奋的增长。</b>可以理解的是，这种资产会有广泛的需求。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。不过，如果通货膨胀不能如期而至，那么不妨为比特币的再次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121930993","content_text":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then reinflated.Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.\nBitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.\nPlenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:\nThis is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:\nGold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:\nWhat drives the gold price, then?Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:\nJoshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?\nThe Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.\nThere is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd. and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:\nNot all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:\nBitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” — or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:\nA rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.\n\nAdding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:\n\n Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.\n\nThe current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:\nIf this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin — which implies buying more bitcoin from here:\n\nIs bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.\nOne final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful — the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.\nThe technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.\nFor now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342241318,"gmtCreate":1618225640434,"gmtModify":1634294336771,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bitcoin too booms","listText":"Bitcoin too booms","text":"Bitcoin too booms","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342241318","repostId":"1121930993","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121930993","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618224287,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121930993?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 18:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121930993","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to d","content":"<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银和黄金，以及比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because —&nbsp;unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price —&nbsp;it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst&nbsp;and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他类似价格极端上涨的热潮不同，数字货币形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫破裂后又重新膨胀。<b>泡泡不应该这样做</b>它们是如此之大的繁荣，以至于它们不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，永远不会回来。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s&nbsp;hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所导致的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在旁观者的眼中。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府支持。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，比特币的价值可能来自于它的缺席。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看 Gavekal Research Ltd. 的这张图表中黄金和国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通货膨胀时，美国国债会跑赢黄金，而当人们担心通货膨胀时，黄金会胜出。除了目前，两者都在下降：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍认为新一波再通胀增长，以及历史性的印钞量（通常是通货膨胀），但这种情况仍在发生，M2 增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们从白银的角度来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，黄金的价格已经大约减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属的价格都疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格一直在稳步上涨。过去一年经历了激增，然后又出现了逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement&nbsp;the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么，是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的Dhaval Joshi提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定实行软金本位制的几十年里，比率回到了原来的水平，只是在 50 年前布雷顿森林体系崩溃后又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由人们认为黄金是一种优越的 “反法定 ”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为人们认为黄金是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金在白银方面的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in&nbsp;scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为一种替代的反法定资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为数字货币自诞生以来就伴随着自由主义的反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，现在也更容易获得，这使其成为闪亮金属更有力的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.&nbsp;and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自字节树资产管理有限公司的 Charles Morris，显示了自去年 5 月以来持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金流量：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or&nbsp;the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但有相当一部分流入了。</b>各机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，作为对菲亚特崩溃的对冲。(另一个重要的目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管比特币在过去几个月中的走强，但谷歌对该术语的搜索量明显下降，这可能被视为散户兴趣的代表，或者通常伴随泡沫而来的那种兴奋：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” —&nbsp;or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于 “再通胀贸易 ”--或者说通胀即将到来的信念。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币更容易出现更多重大举措。关键是它们同时朝同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司 Quant Insight Ltd. 的一项更为科学的分析表明，比特币的主要敏感性在于通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡呈正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree 的 Morris 补充说，比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p>   Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.  <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数几种似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——我们为真正的成长型股票和那些享受复苏的周期性股票保留了这种资产。相反，这通常不利于黄金、防御性收益率股票和债券等传统低增长安全资产。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金最快乐。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢更强劲的经济。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过从黄金进行有节制的转移来防止货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自 2 月底大幅上涨结束以来，实际 10 年期国债收益率基本上横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin —&nbsp;which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这就是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对货币贬值和通货膨胀的担忧复苏是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们究竟应该如何估值它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为，反法定资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但没有什么比比特币在再次反弹之前定期给其持有者造成的巨大损失更好的了。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险--这意味着要从这里购买更多的比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily&nbsp;limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的提议。我用无名指上的一小块金子打这个。我确信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币做的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有什么可以依靠的。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易地限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful —&nbsp;the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，就像黄金一样，几乎没有什么可以持有的。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成新硬币的供应量会随着时间的推移而减少，价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应量的动力。网络效应也可以使货币更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越迅速，它就越成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供任何收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性扰乱了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一个不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术继续发展。就像早期被称为 “寻找问题的解决方案 ”的激光一样，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，如果不是可以通过贴现现金流分析来确定和估值的话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t&nbsp;come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺了科技股所取得的令人兴奋的增长。</b>可以理解的是，这种资产会有广泛的需求。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。不过，如果通货膨胀不能如期而至，那么不妨为比特币的再次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Bitcoin Displacing Gold As An Inflation Hedge?<blockquote>比特币正在取代黄金成为通胀对冲工具吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-12 18:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>白银和黄金，以及比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> How to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because —&nbsp;unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price —&nbsp;it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst&nbsp;and then reinflated.<b>Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this</b>: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.</p><p><blockquote>如何解释比特币？正如我几周前所说，很难将数字货币视为典型的投资泡沫，因为与历史上任何其他类似价格极端上涨的热潮不同，数字货币形成了一系列泡沫，这些泡沫破裂后又重新膨胀。<b>泡泡不应该这样做</b>它们是如此之大的繁荣，以至于它们不能轻轻地放气，必须破裂，永远不会回来。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s&nbsp;hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.</p><p><blockquote>比特币有许多投机狂热的症状，这是由它在信徒中激发的纯粹兴奋所导致的。但很难说数字资产的价值应该是多少。就像黄金一样，价值在旁观者的眼中。它没有内在价值，虽然纸币也是如此，但它背后没有政府支持。</blockquote></p><p> Plenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.<b>Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:</b></p><p><blockquote>很多人都在努力解决同样的问题，比特币的价值可能来自于它的缺席。要了解这是如何运作的，请看看 Gavekal Research Ltd. 的这张图表中黄金和国债之间的奇怪关系。<b>一般来说，当人们不太担心通货膨胀时，美国国债会跑赢黄金，而当人们担心通货膨胀时，黄金会胜出。除了目前，两者都在下降：</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f06f8cd9731b383f9d0181930e6289\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:</p><p><blockquote>尽管人们普遍认为新一波再通胀增长，以及历史性的印钞量（通常是通货膨胀），但这种情况仍在发生，M2 增长就说明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f6aff63854c5946c003f9782f80a755\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Gold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.</b>Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:</p><p><blockquote><b>黄金通常被认为是通胀对冲工具，但如果我们从白银的角度来判断，我们会发现自去年新冠疫情恐慌以来，黄金的价格已经大约减半。</b>自1980年这两种贵金属的价格都疯狂上涨以来，黄金相对于白银的价格一直在稳步上涨。过去一年经历了激增，然后又出现了逆转：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90325ba5146c527b0fe6c902382b31c3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What drives the gold price, then?</b>Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement&nbsp;the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:</p><p><blockquote><b>那么，是什么推动了金价呢？</b>BCA研究公司的Dhaval Joshi提出了一个不同的想法。下图显示了三个世纪的黄金/白银比率。这种关系一直很稳定，直到人们对金本位制的信心受到侵蚀，然后在第一次世界大战后崩溃。在战后布雷顿森林协定实行软金本位制的几十年里，比率回到了原来的水平，只是在 50 年前布雷顿森林体系崩溃后又回到了平流层：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77d3e6c10076e2672025d9f70cf13fa0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Joshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?</p><p><blockquote>乔希认为，这表明对黄金相对于白银的需求是由人们认为黄金是一种优越的 “反法定 ”资产所驱动的。如果人们担心政府发行货币的长期购买力，他们将准备为黄金支付更多费用，因为人们认为黄金是一种价值储存手段。那么，我们如何解释去年黄金在白银方面的突然下跌呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in&nbsp;scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乔希的论点是，比特币已经成为一种替代的反法定资产。它之所以受欢迎，是因为数字货币自诞生以来就伴随着自由主义的反政府思想。比特币的规模不断扩大，变得更加知名，现在也更容易获得，这使其成为闪亮金属更有力的竞争对手。</b></blockquote></p><p> There is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd.&nbsp;and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:</p><p><blockquote>有间接证据表明，一些资金直接从黄金流入比特币。下图来自字节树资产管理有限公司的 Charles Morris，显示了自去年 5 月以来持有这两种资产的投资基金的资金流量：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecdeb7acff0aeb1150b22b1daed5e655\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Not all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.</b>Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or&nbsp;the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:</p><p><blockquote><b>并非所有离开黄金的资金都流入了比特币，但有相当一部分流入了。</b>各机构似乎正在决定向比特币分配一些资金，作为对菲亚特崩溃的对冲。(另一个重要的目的地似乎是中国债券。）尽管比特币在过去几个月中的走强，但谷歌对该术语的搜索量明显下降，这可能被视为散户兴趣的代表，或者通常伴随泡沫而来的那种兴奋：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.</b>When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” —&nbsp;or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币去年的表现与债券收益率的变动直接相关。</b>当收益率上升时，比特币也会上升。这意味着数字货币直接受益于 “再通胀贸易 ”--或者说通胀即将到来的信念。需要明确的是，在任何人指控我图表犯罪之前，这个有两个尺度。与国债相比，比特币更容易出现更多重大举措。关键是它们同时朝同一个方向移动：</blockquote></p><p> A rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.<b>The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.</b></p><p><blockquote>英国研究公司 Quant Insight Ltd. 的一项更为科学的分析表明，比特币的主要敏感性在于通胀盈亏平衡。<b>黄金也是如此。目前的不同之处在于，比特币与盈亏平衡呈正相关，当对通胀的担忧加剧时就会上涨，而黄金则呈负相关。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4914e4b3acf9a51a825d944e7be4c89\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:</p><p><blockquote>ByteTree 的 Morris 补充说，比特币的表现就像一只成长型股票，而黄金从未这样做过：</blockquote></p><p>   Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.  <b>The current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.</b>Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:</p><p><blockquote>比特币似乎拥有一切。它是少数几种似乎受益于债券收益率上升的资产之一——我们为真正的成长型股票和那些享受复苏的周期性股票保留了这种资产。相反，这通常不利于黄金、防御性收益率股票和债券等传统低增长安全资产。与防御性股票和债券不同，比特币和黄金都对通胀敏感，但当世界面临螺旋式下降时，黄金最快乐。相比之下，当收益率上升时，比特币更喜欢更强劲的经济。这就是我们今天的处境。<b>因此，比特币目前的举措看起来像是通过从黄金进行有节制的转移来防止货币贬值，黄金目前被认为是较弱的反法定资产。</b>比特币最近的暂停（其价格仍是年初的两倍）与债券市场的暂停重叠，而债券市场似乎已经超前了。自 2 月底大幅上涨结束以来，实际 10 年期国债收益率基本上横盘整理了一个多月：</blockquote></p><p> <b>If this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.</b>Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin —&nbsp;which implies buying more bitcoin from here:</p><p><blockquote><b>如果这就是促使人们购买比特币的原因，而对货币贬值和通货膨胀的担忧复苏是其在崩盘后持续复苏的原因，那么我们究竟应该如何估值它的问题仍然存在。</b>乔希认为，反法定资产的优点与其避免重大损失的能力有关。黄金也可能出现大幅下跌，但没有什么比比特币在再次反弹之前定期给其持有者造成的巨大损失更好的了。由于比特币的跌幅往往是比特币的三倍，因此可以通过持有三倍于比特币的黄金来平衡风险--这意味着要从这里购买更多的比特币：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2771040ef04af0bbee37892e4443fc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Is bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?</b>It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily&nbsp;limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.</p><p><blockquote><b>比特币真的是黄金的替代品吗？</b>这是一个很难处理的提议。我用无名指上的一小块金子打这个。我确信我永远不会把我的结婚戒指换成比特币做的。黄金至少有作为备受追捧的珠宝原材料的内在用途。比特币没有什么可以依靠的。如果数字资产发展到足以挑战政府对货币发行的垄断，官方行动可能会很容易地限制其使用。</blockquote></p><p> One final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful —&nbsp;the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.</p><p><blockquote>最后一个问题是，就像黄金一样，几乎没有什么可以持有的。是的，有一些措施可以证明价格上涨是合理的。比特币被巧妙地设计成新硬币的供应量会随着时间的推移而减少，价格下跌会减少花钱增加供应量的动力。网络效应也可以使货币更有用——开发的应用程序越多，使用起来越容易、越迅速，它就越成为一种可行的货币。但与其他资产相比，它仍然没有提供任何收益率。它对大规模崩溃的持续敏感性扰乱了它作为交换手段的使用，同时确保它仍然是一个不可靠的价值储存手段。</blockquote></p><p> The technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.</p><p><blockquote>支撑比特币和其他加密货币的技术继续发展。就像早期被称为 “寻找问题的解决方案 ”的激光一样，加密货币和区块链可以为我们解决各种问题。这是一个合理的希望，如果不是可以通过贴现现金流分析来确定和估值的话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>For now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.</b>It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t&nbsp;come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，在许多人对货币政策深表怀疑之际，比特币满足了对更广泛法定货币替代品的需求，同时也承诺了科技股所取得的令人兴奋的增长。</b>可以理解的是，这种资产会有广泛的需求。虽然这种需求很强劲，但它得到了市场中另一种普遍力量的帮助；害怕错过。不过，如果通货膨胀不能如期而至，那么不妨为比特币的再次上涨做好准备。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-displacing-gold-inflation-hedge","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121930993","content_text":"Silver and Gold, and Bitcoin\nHow to explain bitcoin? As I said a couple of weeks ago, it’s hard to dismiss the digital currency as a classic investment bubble because — unlike any of the other historical manias which have seen similarly extreme gains in price — it has formed a series of bubbles, which have burst and then reinflated.Bubbles aren’t supposed to do this: They are booms grown so large that they cannot gently deflate and must burst, never to return.\nBitcoin has many of the symptoms of a speculative mania, led by the sheer excitement it inspires in its believers. But it’s hard to say what the digital asset’s value should be. Like gold, value is in the eye of the beholder. It has no intrinsic value, and while the same is true of banknotes, it has no government standing behind it.\nPlenty of people are grappling with the same issue, and the value of bitcoin might best be derived from its absence. To see how this works, look at the odd relationship between gold and Treasury bonds, in this chart from Gavekal Research Ltd.Generally, Treasuries beat gold when people aren’t too worried about inflation, while gold wins when there are inflationary concerns. Except at present, both are falling:\nThis is happening despite widespread belief in a new wave of reflationary growth, and a historic amount of money-printing, normally inflationary, illustrated here by growth in M2:\nGold is generally thought of as an inflationary hedge, but if we judge it instead in terms of silver, we see that its price has roughly halved since the Covid panic last year.Gold has grown steadily more expensive relative to silver since the bizarre year of 1980 when prices of both precious metals went bonkers. The last year has seen a spike and then a reversal for the ages:\nWhat drives the gold price, then?Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research Inc. comes up with a different idea. The following chart shows three centuries of the gold/silver ratio. The relationship was stable until confidence in the gold standard eroded and then collapsed after the First World War. During the decades of the soft gold standard of the postwar Bretton Woods agreement the ratio returned to its old level, only to head back to the stratosphere once Bretton Woods broke down 50 years ago:\nJoshi contends that this shows demand for gold over silver is driven by its perception as a superior “anti-fiat” asset. If people are worried about the long-term buying power of government-issued currencies, they will be prepared to pay more for gold, with its perceived role as a store of value. How then do we explain gold’s sudden fall in silver terms over the last year?\nThe Joshi argument is that bitcoin has risen as an alternative anti-fiat asset. It has been popular because of the libertarian anti-government ideas that have accompanied the digital currency since its inception. Bitcoin’s increase in scale to become better known and much easier to obtain now makes it a much more viable competitor for the shiny metal.\nThere is circumstantial evidence that some money has flowed directly from gold into bitcoin. The following chart is from Charles Morris of ByteTree Asset Management Ltd. and shows flows into investment funds holding both assets since last May:\nNot all of the money leaving gold has gone into bitcoin, but quite a big chunk has.Institutions appear to be making a decision to allocate some money to bitcoin as a hedge against a fiat collapse. (Another important destination appears to be Chinese bonds.) Bitcoin’s strength in the last few months has come despite a distinct drop-off in Google searches for the term, which might be taken as a proxy for retail interest, or the kind of excitement that typically accompanies a bubble:\nBitcoin’s performance over the last year is directly aligned with movements in bond yields.When yields rise, so does bitcoin. This implies that the digital currency benefits directly from the “reflation trade” — or the belief that inflation is coming. And to be clear, before anyone accuses me of chart crime, this one has two scales. Bitcoin is prone to much more titanic moves than Treasury bonds. The point is that they both move in the same direction at the same time:\nA rather more scientific analysis by the British research firm Quant Insight Ltd. shows bitcoin’s key sensitivity is to inflation breakevens.The same is true of gold. The difference, at present, is that bitcoin is positively correlated with breakevens, gaining when fears about inflation rise, while gold is negatively correlated.\n\nAdding another layer, Morris of ByteTree suggests that bitcoin is behaving like a growth stock, and gold has never done that:\n\n Bitcoin seems to have it all. It is one of the few assets that seems to benefit from a rising bond yield – something we reserve for true growth stocks and those cyclicals enjoying recovery. Conversely, this is normally detrimental to traditional low-growth safe assets such as gold, defensive yield stocks and bonds. Unlike defensive stocks and bonds, Bitcoin and gold are both inflation-sensitive, but gold is happiest when the world faces a downward spiral. In contrast, Bitcoin prefers a stronger economy, when the yield is rising. This is where we are today.\n\nThe current drive in bitcoin therefore looks like a bid to protect against currency debasement, by means of a measured transfer from gold, which is deemed the weaker anti-fiat asset for the moment.Bitcoin’s recent pause (at a level where its price is still double what it was at the start the year) overlaps with a pause in the bond market, which had seemed to get ahead of itself. Real 10-year yields have essentially moved sideways for more than a month since their big rise ended in late February:\nIf this is what is motivating people to buy bitcoin, with resurgence in fears of debasement and inflation accounting for its persistent recovery after crashes, the question of exactly how we should value it remains.Joshi looks at the merits of an anti-fiat asset as being tied up with its ability to avoid major losses. Gold can also have big drawdowns, but nothing like the epic losses that bitcoin periodically inflicts on its holders before rallying again. As bitcoin’s declines tend to be three times bigger, risk can be equalized by holding three times as much gold as bitcoin — which implies buying more bitcoin from here:\n\nIs bitcoin really that direct a substitute for gold?It’s a tough proposition to handle. I am typing this with a very small piece of gold around my ring finger. I am confident that I will never swap my wedding ring for one made of bitcoin. Gold at least has an intrinsic use as the raw material for much-desired jewelry. Bitcoin has nothing so straightforward to fall back on. Official action might easily limit use of the digital asset if it grew big enough to challenge the government’s monopoly of currency issuance.\nOne final issue is that, as with gold, there is so little to hold on to. Yes, there are some measures that can justify a rising price. Bitcoin has been ingeniously designed so that the supply of new coin will reduce over time, and so that price declines will reduce the incentive to spend money on increasing supply. Network effects can also make the currency more useful — the more applications are developed, and the more easily and swiftly it can be used, the more it becomes a viable currency. But it still provides no yield to compare it to other assets. And its continued susceptibility to massive crashes messes up its use as a means of exchange, while ensuring that it continues to be an unreliable store of value.\nThe technology undergirding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continues to develop. Like the laser, in its early days known as a “solution in search of a problem,” cryptocurrencies and the blockchain could solve all kind of problems for us. This is a reasonable hope, if not something that can be pinned down and valued with discounted cash flow analysis.\nFor now, bitcoin fills a demand for a wider array of alternatives to fiat currencies at a time when many are deeply skeptical of monetary policy, while also promising the kind of exciting growth that tech stocks have done.It’s understandable that there would be wide demand for such an asset. And while that demand is strong, it is aided by that other universal force in markets; fear of missing out. If reflation doesn’t come through on cue, however, it might be as well to brace for another bitcoin bump.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346799323,"gmtCreate":1618109441362,"gmtModify":1634294867560,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346799323","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346790470,"gmtCreate":1618109414790,"gmtModify":1634294867803,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346790470","repostId":"1136941144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341582633,"gmtCreate":1617840927722,"gmtModify":1634296245332,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to like and comment","listText":"Help to like and comment","text":"Help to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341582633","repostId":"1129545935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340798245,"gmtCreate":1617473004187,"gmtModify":1634520844314,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help to like and comment.","listText":"Please help to like and comment.","text":"Please help to like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340798245","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340798692,"gmtCreate":1617472955416,"gmtModify":1634520844435,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Always end with a booms","listText":"Always end with a booms","text":"Always end with a booms","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340798692","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354055768,"gmtCreate":1617114102454,"gmtModify":1634522579800,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad market. Pls help to like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Bad market. Pls help to like and comment. Thanks","text":"Bad market. Pls help to like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354055768","repostId":"1162058288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162058288","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617104066,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162058288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-30 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s why Wall Street and investors aren’t giddy enough, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，这就是华尔街和投资者不够兴奋的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162058288","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.While the footing has been a bit less steady for stock","content":"<p><b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>While the footing has been a bit less steady for stocks lately, March is still set to deliver solid gains for most of Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% up 7% and the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.09% up 4%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.60% is lagging with a 1% drop as the shift toward cyclical stocks continues.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>虽然最近股市的基础有点不稳定，但3月份仍将为华尔街大部分地区带来稳健的涨幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.30%上涨7%，标普500 SPX指数-0.09%上涨4%。随着向周期性股票的转变继续，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1%，-0.60%。</blockquote></p><p>The big bull calls for this market remain scarce though, and that may be down to some disbelief, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at money management and research firm The Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>资金管理和研究公司 The Leuthold Group 的首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 表示，不过，该市场的大牛评级仍然很少，这可能是由于一些怀疑。</blockquote></p><p>“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement.”&nbsp;— Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group“There’s a lot of thought that people are too giddy, there’s too much optimism, sentiment is too strong, but I just can’t help but feel it’s going to be a lot stronger,” said Paulsen, in an interview on Monday with MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“我只是无法想象，在这个国家，从某种意义上说，当我们宣布战胜 COVID 时，我们不会比现在坐在我的地下室里感到头晕目眩”。- 吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen），Leuthold 集团 “保尔森在周一接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”有很多人认为人们过于头晕目眩，过于乐观，情绪过于强烈，但我还是忍不住觉得这种情绪会强烈得多。</blockquote></p><p>In our call of the day, he brushes away the naysayers, and looks ahead to the coming autumn, when almost everyone in the U.S. who wants a COVID-19 vaccine will get one, and we’ve got reopenings, re-employment and people “flush with stimulus” cash.</p><p><blockquote>在我们今天的看涨期权中，他对反对者不屑一顾，并展望了即将到来的秋天，届时美国几乎每个想要接种 COVID-19 疫苗的人都将接种疫苗，届时我们将重新开业、重新就业，人们将 “充满刺激 ”现金。</blockquote></p><p>“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement,” including growth better than 8% this year, Paulsen said. “So I think that sentiment is going to run through Main Street and Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”我无法想象，在那个时候，从某种意义上说，在这个国家，当我们宣布战胜科维德时，我们不会比现在坐在我的地下室里感到头晕目眩，”包括今年超过 8% 的增长率。“因此，我认为这种情绪将贯穿主街和华尔街”。</blockquote></p><p>Fundamentals go along with that, as he expects U.S. growth of better than 8% this year, among the strongest of the postwar era. Earnings are also expected to surge, with Wall Street forecasting a rebound for S&amp;P 500 earnings to $175 this year — Paulsen sees $200 as possible.</p><p><blockquote>基本面与此相符，因为他预计美国今年的经济增长将超过 8%，是战后时期最强劲的增长之一。盈利预计也将激增，华尔街预测标普500今年的盈利将反弹至 175 美元——保尔森认为有可能达到 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p>“And if it does, that means we’re selling on less than 20 times earnings right now on the S&amp;P 500, and probably broader markets are even better valuation,” he said. What he thinks is happening is that sentiment just can’t keep up with the better-and-better scenario unfolding.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果是这样的话，那就意味着我们目前在标普500上的售价不到市盈率的 20 倍，而且更广泛的市场估值可能会更好。他认为，现在的情况是，人们的情绪跟不上越来越好的情况。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s not another period I can think of in postwar history where we effectively took the world economy to a Depression-era bust, and then within about a year…a postwar boom,” he said. And while rising bond yields — something to watch for Tuesday — hover over investors, Paulsen sees a “stepwise” move up to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在战后历史上，我想不出还有哪个时期能让世界经济有效地陷入大萧条时期的萧条，然后在大约一年内.战后繁荣。虽然债券收益率上升--周二值得关注--笼罩着投资者，但保尔森认为债券收益率将 “逐步 ”升至 2%。</blockquote></p><p>For investors, he suggests continuing to steer toward economically sensitive areas, via cyclical, small cap and international stocks. He owns technology, but is underweight as sees some underperformance ahead. “But I don’t think it’s going to crater. I think it’s going to participate in this bull.”</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，他建议继续转向经济敏感领域，通过周期性、小盘股和国际股票。他拥有技术，但他是跑输大盘，因为他认为未来会有一些表现不佳。“但我不认为它会崩盘。我认为它会参与这次牛市。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors shouldn’t abandon the sector, because it has been such a domineering force throughout the globe. And down the road, he said tech companies, because they permeate so many sectors, may start to be categorized differently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应放弃该行业，因为它一直是全球范围内的一股霸道力量。他说，未来科技公司，因为它们渗透到如此多的行业，可能会开始被不同的分类。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4d059b2a2272b5b365afd8aafaf2ba\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>What to avoid? Paulsen said he would be wary of healthcare, utilities, real-estate investment trusts, cash, bonds, gold. And yes he does see a correction likely, a big risk for this year.</p><p><blockquote>避免什么？保尔森表示，他将对医疗保健、公用事业、房地产投资信托、现金、债券和黄金保持警惕。是的，他确实认为可能会出现调整，这是今年的一大风险。</blockquote></p><p>“I think it might come later this year but I wouldn’t be shocked, starting right now,” he said. “And that’s the biggest risk this year and I don’t think that’s a cycle ender, it certainly is painful. And I think we’re going to get one of those.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我认为它可能会在今年晚些时候到来，但从现在开始，我不会感到震惊。“这是今年最大的风险，我不认为这是一个周期的终结，这肯定是痛苦的。我认为我们会得到一个这样的机会。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Yields are creeping up, Archegos lingers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产量攀升，Archegos 徘徊</b></blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks are struggling to get a foothold in a holiday-shortened week, with futures for the Nasdaq-100 NQ00, -0.75% down. Those for the S&amp;P 500 ES00, -0.33% and Dow YM00, -0.11% are flat to higher. But the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.762% is up to nearly 1.77%. The Case-Shiller home price index and a gauge of consumer confidence are the data ahead.</p><p><blockquote>科技股在假期缩短的一周内难以站稳脚跟，纳斯达克 100 NQ00 期货下跌 -0.75%。标普500 ES00（-0.33%）和道琼斯 YM00（-0.11%）持平走高。但10年期美国国债TMUBMUSD10Y的收益率为1.762%，升至近1.77%。凯斯-席勒房价指数和衡量消费者信心的指标是未来的数据。</blockquote></p><p>Score another for cryptocurrencies. U.S. customers of online payment provider PayPal PYPL, -2.22% can now purchase items with bitcoin BTCUSD, 3.26% and other digital assets.</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币再得分。在线支付提供商PayPal PYPL（-2.22%）的美国客户现在可以使用比特币 BTCUSD（3.26%）和其他数字资产购买商品。</blockquote></p><p>European stocks and banks SXXP, 0.33% are getting a breather after Monday’s selloff, led by Credit Suisse CS, -11.50%. That is as Archegos Capital Management, the U.S. fund believed to be behind the forced sale of more than $20 billion in stocks, says “all plans are being discussed.” Wall Street banks were reportedly summoned by U.S. regulators to discuss the risks and fallout.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲股票和银行股 SXXP, 0.33% 在周一的抛售之后得到喘息的机会，瑞士信贷 CS 领跌 -11.50%。据信是强制出售 200 多亿美元股票的幕后黑手美国基金 Archegos Capital Management 表示，“所有计划都在讨论中”。据报道，美国监管机构传唤华尔街银行讨论风险和影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fe433f659d25ba084fd1f7b41b448d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The COVID-19 vaccines from drug company Pfizer PFE, +1.02% and biotech Moderna MRNA, -7.40% stopped infections and illness in 90% of fully vaccinated people. Meanwhile, Canada has suspended the shots from drug company AstraZeneca AZN, +0.34% for adults under 55.</p><p><blockquote>制药公司辉瑞PFE的新冠肺炎疫苗，+1.02%和生物技术Moderna MRNA的新冠肺炎疫苗，-7.40%阻止了90%完全接种疫苗的人的感染和疾病。与此同时，加拿大已暂停制药公司阿斯利康AZN的注射，55岁以下成年人+0.34%。</blockquote></p><p>The New York City Police Department is hunting the suspect of a vicious assault on an elderly Asian-American woman.</p><p><blockquote>纽约市警察局正在追捕恶意袭击一名亚裔美国老年妇女的嫌疑人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s why Wall Street and investors aren’t giddy enough, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，这就是华尔街和投资者不够兴奋的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s why Wall Street and investors aren’t giddy enough, says top strategist<blockquote>顶级策略师表示，这就是华尔街和投资者不够兴奋的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-30 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>While the footing has been a bit less steady for stocks lately, March is still set to deliver solid gains for most of Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% up 7% and the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.09% up 4%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.60% is lagging with a 1% drop as the shift toward cyclical stocks continues.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国交易日的关键信息。</b>虽然最近股市的基础有点不稳定，但3月份仍将为华尔街大部分地区带来稳健的涨幅，道琼斯工业平均指数道琼斯指数+0.30%上涨7%，标普500 SPX指数-0.09%上涨4%。随着向周期性股票的转变继续，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1%，-0.60%。</blockquote></p><p>The big bull calls for this market remain scarce though, and that may be down to some disbelief, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at money management and research firm The Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>资金管理和研究公司 The Leuthold Group 的首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 表示，不过，该市场的大牛评级仍然很少，这可能是由于一些怀疑。</blockquote></p><p>“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement.”&nbsp;— Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group“There’s a lot of thought that people are too giddy, there’s too much optimism, sentiment is too strong, but I just can’t help but feel it’s going to be a lot stronger,” said Paulsen, in an interview on Monday with MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>“我只是无法想象，在这个国家，从某种意义上说，当我们宣布战胜 COVID 时，我们不会比现在坐在我的地下室里感到头晕目眩”。- 吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen），Leuthold 集团 “保尔森在周一接受 MarketWatch 采访时说：”有很多人认为人们过于头晕目眩，过于乐观，情绪过于强烈，但我还是忍不住觉得这种情绪会强烈得多。</blockquote></p><p>In our call of the day, he brushes away the naysayers, and looks ahead to the coming autumn, when almost everyone in the U.S. who wants a COVID-19 vaccine will get one, and we’ve got reopenings, re-employment and people “flush with stimulus” cash.</p><p><blockquote>在我们今天的看涨期权中，他对反对者不屑一顾，并展望了即将到来的秋天，届时美国几乎每个想要接种 COVID-19 疫苗的人都将接种疫苗，届时我们将重新开业、重新就业，人们将 “充满刺激 ”现金。</blockquote></p><p>“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement,” including growth better than 8% this year, Paulsen said. “So I think that sentiment is going to run through Main Street and Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”我无法想象，在那个时候，从某种意义上说，在这个国家，当我们宣布战胜科维德时，我们不会比现在坐在我的地下室里感到头晕目眩，”包括今年超过 8% 的增长率。“因此，我认为这种情绪将贯穿主街和华尔街”。</blockquote></p><p>Fundamentals go along with that, as he expects U.S. growth of better than 8% this year, among the strongest of the postwar era. Earnings are also expected to surge, with Wall Street forecasting a rebound for S&amp;P 500 earnings to $175 this year — Paulsen sees $200 as possible.</p><p><blockquote>基本面与此相符，因为他预计美国今年的经济增长将超过 8%，是战后时期最强劲的增长之一。盈利预计也将激增，华尔街预测标普500今年的盈利将反弹至 175 美元——保尔森认为有可能达到 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p>“And if it does, that means we’re selling on less than 20 times earnings right now on the S&amp;P 500, and probably broader markets are even better valuation,” he said. What he thinks is happening is that sentiment just can’t keep up with the better-and-better scenario unfolding.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果是这样的话，那就意味着我们目前在标普500上的售价不到市盈率的 20 倍，而且更广泛的市场估值可能会更好。他认为，现在的情况是，人们的情绪跟不上越来越好的情况。</blockquote></p><p>“There’s not another period I can think of in postwar history where we effectively took the world economy to a Depression-era bust, and then within about a year…a postwar boom,” he said. And while rising bond yields — something to watch for Tuesday — hover over investors, Paulsen sees a “stepwise” move up to 2%.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”在战后历史上，我想不出还有哪个时期能让世界经济有效地陷入大萧条时期的萧条，然后在大约一年内.战后繁荣。虽然债券收益率上升--周二值得关注--笼罩着投资者，但保尔森认为债券收益率将 “逐步 ”升至 2%。</blockquote></p><p>For investors, he suggests continuing to steer toward economically sensitive areas, via cyclical, small cap and international stocks. He owns technology, but is underweight as sees some underperformance ahead. “But I don’t think it’s going to crater. I think it’s going to participate in this bull.”</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，他建议继续转向经济敏感领域，通过周期性、小盘股和国际股票。他拥有技术，但他是跑输大盘，因为他认为未来会有一些表现不佳。“但我不认为它会崩盘。我认为它会参与这次牛市。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors shouldn’t abandon the sector, because it has been such a domineering force throughout the globe. And down the road, he said tech companies, because they permeate so many sectors, may start to be categorized differently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应放弃该行业，因为它一直是全球范围内的一股霸道力量。他说，未来科技公司，因为它们渗透到如此多的行业，可能会开始被不同的分类。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c4d059b2a2272b5b365afd8aafaf2ba\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1096\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>What to avoid? Paulsen said he would be wary of healthcare, utilities, real-estate investment trusts, cash, bonds, gold. And yes he does see a correction likely, a big risk for this year.</p><p><blockquote>避免什么？保尔森表示，他将对医疗保健、公用事业、房地产投资信托、现金、债券和黄金保持警惕。是的，他确实认为可能会出现调整，这是今年的一大风险。</blockquote></p><p>“I think it might come later this year but I wouldn’t be shocked, starting right now,” he said. “And that’s the biggest risk this year and I don’t think that’s a cycle ender, it certainly is painful. And I think we’re going to get one of those.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我认为它可能会在今年晚些时候到来，但从现在开始，我不会感到震惊。“这是今年最大的风险，我不认为这是一个周期的终结，这肯定是痛苦的。我认为我们会得到一个这样的机会。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Yields are creeping up, Archegos lingers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产量攀升，Archegos 徘徊</b></blockquote></p><p>Tech stocks are struggling to get a foothold in a holiday-shortened week, with futures for the Nasdaq-100 NQ00, -0.75% down. Those for the S&amp;P 500 ES00, -0.33% and Dow YM00, -0.11% are flat to higher. But the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.762% is up to nearly 1.77%. The Case-Shiller home price index and a gauge of consumer confidence are the data ahead.</p><p><blockquote>科技股在假期缩短的一周内难以站稳脚跟，纳斯达克 100 NQ00 期货下跌 -0.75%。标普500 ES00（-0.33%）和道琼斯 YM00（-0.11%）持平走高。但10年期美国国债TMUBMUSD10Y的收益率为1.762%，升至近1.77%。凯斯-席勒房价指数和衡量消费者信心的指标是未来的数据。</blockquote></p><p>Score another for cryptocurrencies. U.S. customers of online payment provider PayPal PYPL, -2.22% can now purchase items with bitcoin BTCUSD, 3.26% and other digital assets.</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币再得分。在线支付提供商PayPal PYPL（-2.22%）的美国客户现在可以使用比特币 BTCUSD（3.26%）和其他数字资产购买商品。</blockquote></p><p>European stocks and banks SXXP, 0.33% are getting a breather after Monday’s selloff, led by Credit Suisse CS, -11.50%. That is as Archegos Capital Management, the U.S. fund believed to be behind the forced sale of more than $20 billion in stocks, says “all plans are being discussed.” Wall Street banks were reportedly summoned by U.S. regulators to discuss the risks and fallout.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲股票和银行股 SXXP, 0.33% 在周一的抛售之后得到喘息的机会，瑞士信贷 CS 领跌 -11.50%。据信是强制出售 200 多亿美元股票的幕后黑手美国基金 Archegos Capital Management 表示，“所有计划都在讨论中”。据报道，美国监管机构传唤华尔街银行讨论风险和影响。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fe433f659d25ba084fd1f7b41b448d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The COVID-19 vaccines from drug company Pfizer PFE, +1.02% and biotech Moderna MRNA, -7.40% stopped infections and illness in 90% of fully vaccinated people. Meanwhile, Canada has suspended the shots from drug company AstraZeneca AZN, +0.34% for adults under 55.</p><p><blockquote>制药公司辉瑞PFE的新冠肺炎疫苗，+1.02%和生物技术Moderna MRNA的新冠肺炎疫苗，-7.40%阻止了90%完全接种疫苗的人的感染和疾病。与此同时，加拿大已暂停制药公司阿斯利康AZN的注射，55岁以下成年人+0.34%。</blockquote></p><p>The New York City Police Department is hunting the suspect of a vicious assault on an elderly Asian-American woman.</p><p><blockquote>纽约市警察局正在追捕恶意袭击一名亚裔美国老年妇女的嫌疑人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-wall-street-and-investors-arent-giddy-enough-says-top-strategist-11617102861\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5677649fbdbb7ef0087796f2311fad","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-wall-street-and-investors-arent-giddy-enough-says-top-strategist-11617102861","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162058288","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.While the footing has been a bit less steady for stocks lately, March is still set to deliver solid gains for most of Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% up 7% and the S&P 500 SPX, -0.09% up 4%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.60% is lagging with a 1% drop as the shift toward cyclical stocks continues.The big bull calls for this market remain scarce though, and that may be down to some disbelief, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at money management and research firm The Leuthold Group.“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement.” — Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group“There’s a lot of thought that people are too giddy, there’s too much optimism, sentiment is too strong, but I just can’t help but feel it’s going to be a lot stronger,” said Paulsen, in an interview on Monday with MarketWatch.In our call of the day, he brushes away the naysayers, and looks ahead to the coming autumn, when almost everyone in the U.S. who wants a COVID-19 vaccine will get one, and we’ve got reopenings, re-employment and people “flush with stimulus” cash.“I just can’t imagine that at that point, when, in some sense in this country, when we declare victory over COVID that we’re not going to feel a whole lot more giddy than we do right now sitting in my basement,” including growth better than 8% this year, Paulsen said. “So I think that sentiment is going to run through Main Street and Wall Street.”Fundamentals go along with that, as he expects U.S. growth of better than 8% this year, among the strongest of the postwar era. Earnings are also expected to surge, with Wall Street forecasting a rebound for S&P 500 earnings to $175 this year — Paulsen sees $200 as possible.“And if it does, that means we’re selling on less than 20 times earnings right now on the S&P 500, and probably broader markets are even better valuation,” he said. What he thinks is happening is that sentiment just can’t keep up with the better-and-better scenario unfolding.“There’s not another period I can think of in postwar history where we effectively took the world economy to a Depression-era bust, and then within about a year…a postwar boom,” he said. And while rising bond yields — something to watch for Tuesday — hover over investors, Paulsen sees a “stepwise” move up to 2%.For investors, he suggests continuing to steer toward economically sensitive areas, via cyclical, small cap and international stocks. He owns technology, but is underweight as sees some underperformance ahead. “But I don’t think it’s going to crater. I think it’s going to participate in this bull.”Investors shouldn’t abandon the sector, because it has been such a domineering force throughout the globe. And down the road, he said tech companies, because they permeate so many sectors, may start to be categorized differently.What to avoid? Paulsen said he would be wary of healthcare, utilities, real-estate investment trusts, cash, bonds, gold. And yes he does see a correction likely, a big risk for this year.“I think it might come later this year but I wouldn’t be shocked, starting right now,” he said. “And that’s the biggest risk this year and I don’t think that’s a cycle ender, it certainly is painful. And I think we’re going to get one of those.”Yields are creeping up, Archegos lingersTech stocks are struggling to get a foothold in a holiday-shortened week, with futures for the Nasdaq-100 NQ00, -0.75% down. Those for the S&P 500 ES00, -0.33% and Dow YM00, -0.11% are flat to higher. But the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.762% is up to nearly 1.77%. The Case-Shiller home price index and a gauge of consumer confidence are the data ahead.Score another for cryptocurrencies. U.S. customers of online payment provider PayPal PYPL, -2.22% can now purchase items with bitcoin BTCUSD, 3.26% and other digital assets.European stocks and banks SXXP, 0.33% are getting a breather after Monday’s selloff, led by Credit Suisse CS, -11.50%. That is as Archegos Capital Management, the U.S. fund believed to be behind the forced sale of more than $20 billion in stocks, says “all plans are being discussed.” Wall Street banks were reportedly summoned by U.S. regulators to discuss the risks and fallout.The COVID-19 vaccines from drug company Pfizer PFE, +1.02% and biotech Moderna MRNA, -7.40% stopped infections and illness in 90% of fully vaccinated people. Meanwhile, Canada has suspended the shots from drug company AstraZeneca AZN, +0.34% for adults under 55.The New York City Police Department is hunting the suspect of a vicious assault on an elderly Asian-American woman.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355134613,"gmtCreate":1617033990132,"gmtModify":1634522986728,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment to this pls thanks","listText":"Comment to this pls thanks","text":"Comment to this pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355134613","repostId":"1119928689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355138437,"gmtCreate":1617033783029,"gmtModify":1634522988841,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What's going on?!!! Help to like and comment pls","listText":"What's going on?!!! Help to like and comment pls","text":"What's going on?!!! Help to like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355138437","repostId":"1108487611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356252802,"gmtCreate":1616781811306,"gmtModify":1634524011815,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stocks are weird","listText":"Stocks are weird","text":"Stocks are weird","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356252802","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356252957,"gmtCreate":1616781785179,"gmtModify":1634524011935,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to like and comment pls","listText":"Help to like and comment pls","text":"Help to like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356252957","repostId":"1111192234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111192234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616772179,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111192234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-26 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111192234","media":"Barrons","summary":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla. Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors and Ford Motor have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and","content":"<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Deliveries Are Coming. They Matter More Than Ever. Here’s What to Expect.<blockquote>特斯拉快递来了。它们比以往任何时候都更重要。以下是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-26 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度还有几天就结束了。这意味着汽车制造商将提供更多交付数据。对于投资者来说，这些数字将比平时更高。原因很简单：全球汽车微芯片短缺正在扰乱整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> Numbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as&nbsp;Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both&nbsp;General Motors(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）等高估值、高增长的公司来说，数字将更加重要。特斯拉投资者想要增长，而芯片形势正在挤压增长。通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 最近都意外停工，并称芯片问题是 2021 年数十亿美元的利润阻力。这不是投资者想听到的。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都意识到这个问题。尽管如此，当第一季度数据公布时，如果业绩弱于预期，投资者必须决定是否给予特斯拉或任何其他快速增长的电动汽车制造商通行证。</blockquote></p><p> So far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，市场并不乐观。但样本量只有一只股票。</blockquote></p><p> NIO&nbsp;shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker&nbsp;reduced guidance&nbsp;for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）股价在周五交易中下跌超过 6%，此前这家电动汽车制造商将第一季度交付量指引从约 20,250 辆下调至约 19,500 辆。蔚来管理层以芯片短缺为由，将从 3 月 29 日开始关闭一家制造工厂五天。</blockquote></p><p> For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.</p><p><blockquote>对于特斯拉来说，华尔街正在寻找 3 月份交付的约 162,000 辆汽车。这低于最高估计的约 18.3 万辆汽车。分析师似乎正在减少数字，可能是因为短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the&nbsp;fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第四季度交付了约 181,000 辆汽车。对于 2021 年全年，分析师预计将交付近 80 万辆汽车，同比增长约 60%。</blockquote></p><p> RBC analyst&nbsp;Joe Spak&nbsp;is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting&nbsp;Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行分析师乔·斯帕克 (Joe Spak) 预测第一季度交付量为 170,000 辆，同比增长 90% 以上。他还预测，特斯拉本季度将在加州生产 96,000 辆汽车，在华生产 74,000 辆汽车。“Spak在周四的一份报告中写道：”共识[估计]看起来大多是合理的。“我们确实在寻找最新消息，看看半短缺对特斯拉的影响--就像对整个行业的影响一样。”他认为，由于芯片的影响，预测存在一些额外的下行风险，尤其是第二季度的数据。</blockquote></p><p> Spak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.</p><p><blockquote>Spak 将特斯拉股票评级为持有，目标股价为 725 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.</p><p><blockquote>就特斯拉股票而言，芯片短缺已经让位于利率上升。增长率上升主要有两种方式。首先，这使得增长的融资成本更高。蔚来尚未盈利。高增长公司的大部分现金流是在未来很长一段时间内产生的。相对而言，当投资者今天可以从现金中获得更高的利率时，这种现金流的价值就会降低一些。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500is up about 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在 2020 年上涨超过 740% 后，今年迄今已下跌约 10%。周五早盘交易中，股价下跌 0.9%，至 634.40 美元。标准普尔500指数上涨约0.7%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-are-coming-they-matter-more-than-ever-heres-what-to-expect-51616769819?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111192234","content_text":"The first quarter ends in just a few days. That means more delivery data from auto makers is due. For investors, the figures will be higher stakes than usual. The reason is simple: The global automotive microchip shortage is roiling the entire car business.\nNumbers will matter even more for richly valued, high-growth companies such as Tesla(ticker: TSLA). Tesla investors want growth, and the chip situation is squeezing growth. Both General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) have taken unexpected plant downtime recently and have called the chip issue a billion-dollar profit headwind for 2021. That’s not what investors want to hear.\nEveryone is aware of the issue. Still, when first-quarter data is released, investors have to decide whether or not to give Tesla, or any other fast-growing EV maker, a pass if results are weaker than expected.\nSo far the market isn’t feeling charitable. But the sample size is only one stock.\nNIO shares (NIO) are down more than 6% in Friday trading after the EV maker reduced guidance for first-quarter deliveries from about 20,250 cars to about 19,500. NIO management cited the chip shortage and is shutting a manufacturing plant for five days starting March 29.\nFor Tesla, Wall Street is looking for about 162,000 vehicles delivered in March. That’s down from a peak estimate of about 183,000 vehicles. Analysts seem to be reducing numbers, possibly because of the shortage.\nTesla delivered about 181,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, analysts are looking for almost 800,000 vehicle deliveries, up about 60% year over year.\nRBC analyst Joe Spak is forecasting 170,000 first-quarter deliveries, up more than 90% year over year. He also forecasts Tesla will make 96,000 cars in California and 74,000 cars in China during the quarter. “Consensus [estimate] looks mostly reasonable,” wrote Spak in a Thursday report. “We do look for updates to see how the semi shortage is impacting Tesla—as it has the rest of the industry.” He sees some additional downside risk to estimates, especially for second-quarter numbers, because of chips.\nSpak rates Tesla stock Hold and has a $725 price target for shares.\nIn the case of Tesla stock, the chip shortage has taken a back seat to rising interest rates. Rising rateshit growth stocksin two main ways. For starters, it makes growth more expensive to finance. NIO isn’t profitable yet. High-growth companies generate most of their cash flow far in the future. That cash flow is worth a little less, relatively speaking, when investors can earn higher interest rates on their cash today.\nTesla stock is down roughly 10% year to date after rising more than 740% in 2020. Shares are down 0.9% in early Friday trading, at $634.40. The S&P 500is up about 0.7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358832171,"gmtCreate":1616679136093,"gmtModify":1634524602603,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575884970491860","authorIdStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Has been shit for days. Help me like and comment","listText":"Has been shit for days. Help me like and comment","text":"Has been shit for days. Help me like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358832171","repostId":"2122555415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2122555415","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1616678169,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2122555415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 21:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For March 25, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 3 月 25 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2122555415","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Darden Restaurants, Inc.</b> (NYSE:DRI) to report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares gained 0.7% to $134.80 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>RH </b> (NYSE:RH) reported stronger-than-expected results for its fourth quarter on Wednesday. RH shares surged 8.4% to $526.00 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> Science Applications International Corp</b> (NYSE:SAIC) to have earned $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. SAIC shares rose 0.6% to $95.40 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB Home</a> </b> (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its first quarter, while sales fell short of expectations. KB Home shares fell 2.9% to $42.12 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>Rite Aid Corporation</b> (NYSE:RAD) issued an update on FY2021 guidance. The company said it expects to report a FY21 net loss of $90 million to $100 million on sales of $23.98 billion to $24.00 billion. Rite Aid shares dipped 16.2% to $19.55 in the after-hours trading session.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）将公布季度收益，每股 0.69 美元，开盘前营收为 16.3 亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.7%，至 134.80 美元。</li><li><b>RH</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RH）周三公布了强于预期的第四季度业绩。RH 股价在盘后交易时段飙升 8.4%，至 526.00 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>科学应用国际公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SAIC）最新季度每股收益 1.45 美元，营收为 17.8 亿美元。该公司将在收盘后发布财报。上汽集团股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.6%，至 95.40 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB主页</a></b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KBH）公布第一季度盈利乐观，但销售额低于预期。KB Home 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 2.9%，至 42.12 美元。</li><li><b>Rite Aid公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RAD）发布了 2021 财年指引的更新。该公司表示，预计 2021 财年净亏损为 9000 万至 1 亿美元，销售额为 239.8 亿至 240.0 亿美元。Rite Aid 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 16.2%，至 19.55 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For March 25, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 3 月 25 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For March 25, 2021<blockquote>2021 年 3 月 25 日值得关注的 5 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 21:16</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能吸引投资者关注的一些股票是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b> Darden Restaurants, Inc.</b> (NYSE:DRI) to report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares gained 0.7% to $134.80 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>RH </b> (NYSE:RH) reported stronger-than-expected results for its fourth quarter on Wednesday. RH shares surged 8.4% to $526.00 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b> Science Applications International Corp</b> (NYSE:SAIC) to have earned $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. SAIC shares rose 0.6% to $95.40 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB Home</a> </b> (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its first quarter, while sales fell short of expectations. KB Home shares fell 2.9% to $42.12 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li><b>Rite Aid Corporation</b> (NYSE:RAD) issued an update on FY2021 guidance. The company said it expects to report a FY21 net loss of $90 million to $100 million on sales of $23.98 billion to $24.00 billion. Rite Aid shares dipped 16.2% to $19.55 in the after-hours trading session.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预期<b>达顿餐饮公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DRI）将公布季度收益，每股 0.69 美元，开盘前营收为 16.3 亿美元。达顿餐厅股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.7%，至 134.80 美元。</li><li><b>RH</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RH）周三公布了强于预期的第四季度业绩。RH 股价在盘后交易时段飙升 8.4%，至 526.00 美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>科学应用国际公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SAIC）最新季度每股收益 1.45 美元，营收为 17.8 亿美元。该公司将在收盘后发布财报。上汽集团股价在盘后交易中上涨 0.6%，至 95.40 美元。</li></ul><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KBH\">KB主页</a></b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KBH）公布第一季度盈利乐观，但销售额低于预期。KB Home 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 2.9%，至 42.12 美元。</li><li><b>Rite Aid公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RAD）发布了 2021 财年指引的更新。该公司表示，预计 2021 财年净亏损为 9000 万至 1 亿美元，销售额为 239.8 亿至 240.0 亿美元。Rite Aid 股价在盘后交易时段下跌 16.2%，至 19.55 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RH":"RH","SAIC":"Science Applications Internation","KBH":"KB Home","DRI":"达登饭店"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2122555415","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects  Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) to report quarterly earnings at $0.69 per share on revenue of $1.63 billion before the opening bell. Darden Restaurants shares gained 0.7% to $134.80 in after-hours trading.\nRH  (NYSE:RH) reported stronger-than-expected results for its fourth quarter on Wednesday. RH shares surged 8.4% to $526.00 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting  Science Applications International Corp (NYSE:SAIC) to have earned $1.45 per share on revenue of $1.78 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. SAIC shares rose 0.6% to $95.40 in after-hours trading.\n\n\nKB Home  (NYSE:KBH) reported upbeat earnings for its first quarter, while sales fell short of expectations. KB Home shares fell 2.9% to $42.12 in the after-hours trading session.\nRite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) issued an update on FY2021 guidance. The company said it expects to report a FY21 net loss of $90 million to $100 million on sales of $23.98 billion to $24.00 billion. Rite Aid shares dipped 16.2% to $19.55 in the after-hours trading session.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RH":0.9,"DRI":0.9,"RAD":0.9,"SAIC":0.9,"KBH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":353158834,"gmtCreate":1616472993928,"gmtModify":1634525641936,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help me like and comment","listText":"Help me like and comment","text":"Help me like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353158834","repostId":"2121171064","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378153231,"gmtCreate":1619012513423,"gmtModify":1634289235324,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","listText":"Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","text":"Drop more so I can buy. Please like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378153231","repostId":"1114709501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114709501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619012348,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114709501?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114709501","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in B","content":"<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla stock dropped more than 2% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价早盘下跌超过 2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-21 21:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to&nbsp;German business daily.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周三早盘交易中下跌超过 2%。据德国《商业日报》报道， 特斯拉柏林超级工厂的启动可能会大幅推迟。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b525edb3c12a6ee6740baf665aa59a9e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.</p><p><blockquote>此前，郑州市郑东新区市监局责令特斯拉无条件提供事故发生前半小时完整行车数据；此外，第一季度，model 3在加州的注册量同比下降54%至8060辆。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114709501","content_text":"Tesla stock dropped more than 2% in Wednesday morning trading.The launch of Tesla's super plant in Berlin is likely to be significantly delayed,according to German business daily.Previously, Zhengzhou Zhengdong New District Municipal Supervision Bureau ordered Tesla to provide the complete driving data half an hour before the accident unconditionally; in addition, in the first quarter, the registration volume of model 3 in California dropped 54% to 8060 vehicles year on year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346799323,"gmtCreate":1618109441362,"gmtModify":1634294867560,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346799323","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351308356,"gmtCreate":1616559571775,"gmtModify":1634525199428,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Help to like and comment","listText":"Help to like and comment","text":"Help to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351308356","repostId":"1164066925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340798692,"gmtCreate":1617472955416,"gmtModify":1634520844435,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Always end with a booms","listText":"Always end with a booms","text":"Always end with a booms","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340798692","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最伟大的反弹行情之一。基准测试后<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）由于冠状病毒大流行前所未有的不确定性，在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹，较低点上涨了约 75%。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到另一个现实：股市崩溃或修正的倾向。事情现在可能看起来很好，但下一次大俯冲总是在翅膀里等着。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经进行了38次调整。这意味着基准指数平均每 1.87 年下降两位数。由于市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均值肯定不受投资者青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此……平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年至1996年的时期，那时没有任何修正。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月进行一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熊市底部三年内的修正是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个有趣的证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自 1960 年初（为了简单起见，我选择了一个任意年份）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从前八个熊市低点反弹的过程中，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下降。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自 2020 年 3 月 23 日以来，“涨、涨、走”几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当这个估值指标被击中时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能就是标准普尔500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，用于检查过去 10 年经通胀调整后的平均收入。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标准普尔500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是 150 年平均水平 16.8 的两倍多。以持续牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史上的水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而互联网的接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的壁垒，这些壁垒在过去可能会阻碍市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标准普尔 500 指数席勒市盈率突破并维持在 30 水平的情况并没有好结果。在之前的四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数从20%暴跌至89%。尽管如今大萧条时期经历的 89% 暴跌的可能性非常小，但历史上，当估值延长时，就像现在一样，可能会出现大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把现金放在手边，以备不时之需</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明，下行即将来临。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的消息，但不应该如此。崩溃和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买优秀公司的机会。想想那些你可能会因为去年三月没有买入而责备自己的伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来，标普500的38次调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹搁置了。此外，在过去一个世纪中，标普500的 20 年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您需要在调整期间进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38 个两位数跌幅中有 24 个是在 104 个日历日或更短时间内（3.5 个月或更短时间）触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能会很陡峭，但往往会很快解决。这是你准备好现金以备不时之需的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379387952,"gmtCreate":1618676015976,"gmtModify":1634291449957,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","listText":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","text":"This is bad!!! Please help to like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379387952","repostId":"1155509413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155509413","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1618587639,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155509413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155509413","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories  accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd .Taiwan","content":"<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧当前的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆基座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗元件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆制造厂（fabs）占全球产能的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年缺乏风暴导致供应受阻，促使政府开始对100多万家企业和居民实行供水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于德克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易：RNECF）日本工厂受到二月份地震和三月份火灾的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>台湾负责大部分芯片制造设施的三个科学工业园区不得不限制取水量，但迄今为止没有停水。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>据称，在其芯片设施之一的供应减少后，替代水源和加速保护将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中、桃园设有工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新竹的TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM 还试图利用建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM 预计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为芯片生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月份引入了干旱灾害应对机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM 的目标是到 2030 年将单位用水量比 2010 年的水平减少 30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，TSM 约占台湾 GDP 的 4.5%，芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的援助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM 股价持平于 118.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan's Drought Poses Additional Threat To Looming Global Chip Crisis: WSJ<blockquote>台湾干旱对迫在眉睫的全球芯片危机构成额外威胁：《华尔街日报》</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-16 23:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the&nbsp;Wall Street Journal reports.</p><p><blockquote>据《华尔街日报》报道，台湾的严重干旱可能会加剧当前的全球芯片危机，因为半导体生产商在整个制造过程中需要大量供水来清洁晶圆基座、蚀刻图案、抛光层和冲洗元件。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;TSM).</p><p><blockquote>台湾的半导体晶圆制造厂（fabs）占全球产能的三分之二。大部分产能属于合同芯片制造商<b>台积电有限公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TSM）。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.</p><p><blockquote>台湾的大部分水储备来自季节性台风。然而，去年缺乏风暴导致供应受阻，促使政府开始对100多万家企业和居民实行供水配给。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Samsung Electronics Co Ltd</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;SSNLF) had to&nbsp;temporarily shut down&nbsp;two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Renesas Electronics Corp’s</b>&nbsp;(OTC:&nbsp;RNECF) Japanese plant was&nbsp;hampered by&nbsp;the February earthquake and a March fire.</p><p><blockquote><b>三星电子有限公司</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）由于德克萨斯州天气异常，不得不暂时关闭其奥斯汀的两家芯片工厂。汽车芯片制造商<b>瑞萨电子公司</b>（场外交易：RNECF）日本工厂受到二月份地震和三月份火灾的阻碍。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.</p><p><blockquote>台湾负责大部分芯片制造设施的三个科学工业园区不得不限制取水量，但迄今为止没有停水。然而，它影响了一些公司。</blockquote></p><p> Alternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology Inc</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.</p><p><blockquote>据称，在其芯片设施之一的供应减少后，替代水源和加速保护将增加生产成本<b>美光科技公司</b>（纳斯达克：MU），在台中、桃园设有工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Hsinchu-based TSM and&nbsp;<b>United Microelectronics Corp</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:&nbsp;UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于新竹的TSM和<b>联合微电子公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：UMC）已获得替代供水来源。TSM 还试图利用建筑工地的地下水。</blockquote></p><p> TSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.</p><p><blockquote>尽管供水紧张，TSM 预计不会对运营产生任何重大影响。</blockquote></p><p> However, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.</p><p><blockquote>然而，台湾官员和学者表示，气候变化引发的台湾水危机可能会危及全球芯片生产，因为芯片生产高度集中在这个岛国。</blockquote></p><p> Taiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.</p><p><blockquote>台湾在10月份引入了干旱灾害应对机构。</blockquote></p><p> The government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>从4月份开始，政府每周停止向该岛部分地区供水两天。TSM 的目标是到 2030 年将单位用水量比 2010 年的水平减少 30%。</blockquote></p><p> TSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.</p><p><blockquote>2018 年，TSM 约占台湾 GDP 的 4.5%，芯片销售额平均占台湾出口增长的 64%。</blockquote></p><p> Germany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>德国已寻求台湾的援助，以确保德国汽车制造商的芯片供应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price action:</b>&nbsp;TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>周五最后一次检查时，TSM 股价持平于 118.35 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155509413","content_text":"Taiwan’s severe drought could aggravate the ongoing global chip crisis as semiconductor producers required a massive water supply to clean the wafer base, etch patterns, polish layers and rinse components throughout the manufacturing process, the Wall Street Journal reports.\nTaiwan’s semiconductor wafer-fabrication factories (fabs) accounted for two-thirds of the global manufacturing capacity. Most of that capacity belonged to contract chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (NYSE: TSM).\nTaiwan derived most of its water reserves from seasonal typhoons. However, a lack of storms last year had choked supplies, prompting the government to start water rationing for over a million businesses and residents.\nSamsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTC: SSNLF) had to temporarily shut down two of its Austin chip factories due to Texas weather anomalies. Auto chip manufacturer Renesas Electronics Corp’s (OTC: RNECF) Japanese plant was hampered by the February earthquake and a March fire.\nTaiwan’s three science industrial parks responsible for most of the chip-making facilities had to limit their water intake but were exempt from stoppages to date. However, it was affecting some of the companies.\nAlternative sources of water and acceleration of conservation would escalate the production costs after supply to one of its chip facilities were reduced, stated Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU), which had facilities in Taichung and Taoyuan.\nHsinchu-based TSM and United Microelectronics Corp (NYSE: UMC) had secured alternate water supply sources. TSM was also trying to utilize groundwater from their construction sites.\nTSM did not estimate any significant impact on operations despite the tight water supply.\nHowever, Taiwan’s water crisis fueled by climate change could jeopardize global chip production due to their high production concentration in the island country, stated its officials and scholars.\nTaiwan introduced a drought disaster response agency in October.\nThe government stopped the water supply for two days per week to some parts of the island from April. TSM aimed to reduce its water requirement per unit by 30% from 2010 levels by 2030.\nTSM accounted for around 4.5% of Taiwan’s GDP in 2018, and chip sales accounted for 64% of Taiwan’s export growth on average over the past five years.\nGermany has sought Taiwan’s assistance to secure chip supply for German car manufacturers.\nPrice action: TSM shares traded flat at $118.35 on the last check Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359111168,"gmtCreate":1616373306954,"gmtModify":1634526218257,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment for me pls","listText":"Like and comment for me pls","text":"Like and comment for me pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359111168","repostId":"1117450855","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117450855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616166767,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117450855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”就继续支持经济</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117450855","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration o","content":"<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏 “还远未完成”。</b>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周五表示，虽然美国经济前景 “一片光明”，但复苏 “还远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中， 鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制影响的严重程度和持续时间，以避免造成长期损害。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事们根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率削减至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测 2021 年经济将强劲增长，并且每天都有越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏文章中说，情况 “有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔说：”但复苏还远未完成，因此在美联储，我们将继续为经济提供所需的支持。</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我真的相信，我们会像以前经常做的那样，从这场危机中走出来，变得更强大、更好。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近一次政策会议上重申了其宽松货币政策立场，尽管预测今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济将过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国库券 MUBMUSD10Y,1.734% 的收益率在年初低于 1% 后，本周升至 1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数在上午交易中下跌-0.71%，下跌187点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”就继续支持经济</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell says Fed will keep supporting economy ‘for as long as it takes’<blockquote>鲍威尔表示美联储将“只要需要”就继续支持经济</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.</b>  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储主席在《华尔街日报》专栏中表示，前景一片光明，但复苏 “还远未完成”。</b>美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周五表示，虽然美国经济前景 “一片光明”，但复苏 “还远未完成”。</blockquote></p><p> In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.</p><p><blockquote>在《华尔街日报》发表的一篇专栏文章中， 鲍威尔讲述了去年2月他意识到冠状病毒大流行将席卷全国的那一刻。</blockquote></p><p> “The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”美国经济面临的危险是严重的。面临的挑战是限制影响的严重程度和持续时间，以避免造成长期损害。</blockquote></p><p> Powell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔和他的同事们根据从2008-2009年大衰退的缓慢复苏中吸取的教训，迅速采取行动可能会更好。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.</p><p><blockquote>央行迅速将政策利率削减至零，并启动了被称为量化宽松的开放式资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> With economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济学家预测 2021 年经济将强劲增长，并且每天都有越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，金融市场想知道美联储的支持将持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> In the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔在专栏文章中说，情况 “有了很大改善”。</blockquote></p><p> “But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>“鲍威尔说：”但复苏还远未完成，因此在美联储，我们将继续为经济提供所需的支持。</blockquote></p><p> “I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我真的相信，我们会像以前经常做的那样，从这场危机中走出来，变得更强大、更好。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.</p><p><blockquote>周三，美联储在最近一次政策会议上重申了其宽松货币政策立场，尽管预测今年经济增长将更加强劲，通胀将上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席在周五的文章中没有提及通胀前景。华尔街许多人担心，在美联储收回宽松政策立场之前，经济将过热。</blockquote></p><p> Yields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国库券 MUBMUSD10Y,1.734% 的收益率在年初低于 1% 后，本周升至 1.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周五股市走低，道琼斯工业平均指数在上午交易中下跌-0.71%，下跌187点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-keep-supporting-economy-for-as-long-as-it-takes-11616165178?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1117450855","content_text":"Outlook is brightening, but recovery ‘far from complete,’ Fed chairman says in WSJ op-ed.\n\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that while the U.S. economic outlook is “brightening,” the recovery is “far from complete.”\nIn an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal,Powell recounted the moment last February when he realized that the coronavirus pandemic would sweep across the country.\n“The danger to the U.S. economy was grave. The challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer-run damage,” he said.\nPowell and his colleagues engineered a rapid response to the crisis, based on the lesson learned from slow recovery to the Great Recession of 2008-2009 that swift action might have been better.\nThe central bank quickly slashed its policy interest rate to zero and launched an open-ended asset purchase program known as quantitative easing.\nWith economists penciling in strong growth for 2021 and more Americans getting vaccinated every day, financial markets are wondering how long Fed support will last.\nIn the op-ed, Powell said the situation “is much improved.”\n“But the recovery is far from complete, so at the Fed we will continue to provide the economy with the support that it needs for as long as it takes,” Powell said.\n“I truly believe that we will emerge from this crisis stronger and better, as we have done so often before,” he said.\nOn Wednesday, the Fed recommitted to its easy money policy stance at its latest policy meeting despite a forecast for stronger economic growth and higher inflation this year.\nThe Fed chairman did not mention the outlook for inflation in his Friday article . Many on Wall Street are worried that the economy will overheat before the Fed pulls back its easy policy stance.\nYields on the 10-year Treasury noteTMUBMUSD10Y,1.734%have risen to 1.73% this week after starting the year below 1%.\nStocks were trading lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.71%down 187 points in mid-morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347519359,"gmtCreate":1618500827371,"gmtModify":1634292470798,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please help me to like and comment","listText":"Please help me to like and comment","text":"Please help me to like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347519359","repostId":"1146658160","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355134613,"gmtCreate":1617033990132,"gmtModify":1634522986728,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment to this pls thanks","listText":"Comment to this pls thanks","text":"Comment to this pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355134613","repostId":"1119928689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379441386,"gmtCreate":1618791700545,"gmtModify":1634290938281,"author":{"id":"3575884970491860","authorId":"3575884970491860","name":"Ciyee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f238f1407bb4e41e6f9ae4eab6de2d56","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575884970491860","idStr":"3575884970491860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Too volatile. Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379441386","repostId":"2128863736","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}