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Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider
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e moon","listText":"To e moon","text":"To e moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d276ebb4d27d343dfa15a1d93f629625","width":"1125","height":"2979"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114406586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112029804,"gmtCreate":1622826601508,"gmtModify":1634097589617,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon","listText":"Moon","text":"Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112029804","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118535703,"gmtCreate":1622737588402,"gmtModify":1634098515748,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118535703","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111761505,"gmtCreate":1622700527407,"gmtModify":1634098992917,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111761505","repostId":"2140449421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329799457,"gmtCreate":1615277901079,"gmtModify":1703486621317,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329799457","repostId":"2117696928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841056805,"gmtCreate":1635864630412,"gmtModify":1635864630412,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Super","listText":"Super","text":"Super","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841056805","repostId":"1196323855","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196323855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635835644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196323855?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196323855","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks. Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.Since 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the","content":"<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bf4db267085a8c096970906864e7ff\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.</p>\n<p>This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.</p>\n<p>By how much?</p>\n<p>Since 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.</p>\n<p>After tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling three-month periods, says Bank of America.</p>\n<p>Institutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&P 500 for stocks with year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm and T-Mobile.</p>\n<p>I’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)</p>\n<p>The significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.</p>\n<p><b>Intel; recent price: $48.25</b></p>\n<p><b>Stock decline</b>: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high</p>\n<p><b>Latest insider purchase</b>: 10/25/21</p>\n<p><b>Yield</b>: 2.9%</p>\n<p>Intel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.</p>\n<p>Personally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.</p>\n<p><b>MercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512</b></p>\n<p><b>Stock decline</b>: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high</p>\n<p><b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/18/21</p>\n<p><b>Yield</b>: None</p>\n<p>This online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.</p>\n<p>But insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.</p>\n<p><b>Krispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86</b></p>\n<p><b>Stock decline</b>: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high</p>\n<p><b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21</p>\n<p><b>Yield</b>: 1.1%</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.</p>\n<p>But there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store display cases in grocery and convenience stores.</p>\n<p><b>Lamb Weston; recent price: $57.49</b></p>\n<p><b>Stock decline</b>: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high</p>\n<p><b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21</p>\n<p><b>Yield</b>: 1.6%</p>\n<p>If you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.</p>\n<p>The company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>New Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56</b></p>\n<p><b>Stock decline</b>: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high</p>\n<p><b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21</p>\n<p><b>Yield</b>: 1.3%</p>\n<p>I originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.</p>\n<p>New Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.</p>\n<p>New Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.</p>\n<p>Insiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.</p>\n<p>Remember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPut these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-02 14:47 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks\nPhoto by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images\nBig investors just finished their tax-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","MELI":"MercadoLibre","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","NFE":"New Fortress Energy LLC","INCY":"因塞特医疗","QCOM":"高通","LW":"Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.","DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc.","VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","GPN":"环汇有限公司"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196323855","content_text":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks\nPhoto by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images\nBig investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.\nThis trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.\nBy how much?\nSince 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.\nAfter tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling three-month periods, says Bank of America.\nInstitutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&P 500 for stocks with year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm and T-Mobile.\nI’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)\nThe significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.\nIntel; recent price: $48.25\nStock decline: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchase: 10/25/21\nYield: 2.9%\nIntel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.\nPersonally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.\nMercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512\nStock decline: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/18/21\nYield: None\nThis online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.\nBut insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.\nKrispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86\nStock decline: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21\nYield: 1.1%\nKrispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.\nBut there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.\nKrispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store display cases in grocery and convenience stores.\nLamb Weston; recent price: $57.49\nStock decline: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21\nYield: 1.6%\nIf you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.\nThe company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.\nMeanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.\nNew Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56\nStock decline: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21\nYield: 1.3%\nI originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.\nNew Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.\nNew Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.\nInsiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.\nRemember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DNUT":0.9,"GPN":0.9,"INCY":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"LW":0.9,"MELI":0.9,"NFE":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"VTRS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112029804,"gmtCreate":1622826601508,"gmtModify":1634097589617,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon","listText":"Moon","text":"Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112029804","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? 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What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111761505,"gmtCreate":1622700527407,"gmtModify":1634098992917,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111761505","repostId":"2140449421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118535703,"gmtCreate":1622737588402,"gmtModify":1634098515748,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118535703","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329799457,"gmtCreate":1615277901079,"gmtModify":1703486621317,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329799457","repostId":"2117696928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114405654,"gmtCreate":1623083823878,"gmtModify":1634037113206,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114405654","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114402709,"gmtCreate":1623083791101,"gmtModify":1634037113773,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114402709","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114406586,"gmtCreate":1623083713445,"gmtModify":1634037114852,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To e moon","listText":"To e moon","text":"To e moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d276ebb4d27d343dfa15a1d93f629625","width":"1125","height":"2979"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114406586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
