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2021-11-02

Super

Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote>

2021-06-08

Great

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2021-06-08

👍🏻

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2021-06-08

To e moon

2021-06-05

Moon

Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-04

K

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2021-06-03

Ok

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2021-03-09

Ok

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14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196323855","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks. Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.Since 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the","content":"<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks</p><p><blockquote>专业投资者往往会在10月底之前抛售一些输家，从而在一些股票中创造更大的价值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bf4db267085a8c096970906864e7ff\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者刚刚完成了税收损失抛售。所以是时候在废墟中寻找便宜货了。</blockquote></p><p> This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>这种交易一直运作良好，因为共同基金和其他大型投资者必须在10月31日之前实现税收损失。之后，他们打击的股票往往会跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> By how much?</p><p><blockquote>多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Since 1986, S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>根据美银的数据，自1986年以来，标普500股市在今年前10个月下跌了10%以上（最大的税收损失抛售候选者），在随后的三个月上涨了5.6%。这比标普500同期3.9%的平均回报率高出1.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> After tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling&nbsp;three-month periods, says Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在税收损失抛售之后，这些股票可以从季节性看涨的市场顺风中获得提振。美银表示，自1936年以来，11月1日至1月31日期间，标普500平均上涨4.5%，而所有其他滚动三个月期间的平均涨幅为2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&amp;P 500 for stocks with&nbsp;year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm&nbsp;and T-Mobile.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，机构投资者一直是股票的大卖家，他们严重依赖税收损失抛售候选人。为了找到最好的便宜货，美银在标普500上筛选了年初至今(YTD)跌幅超过10%的股票。然后该银行建议客户考虑其给予买入评级的13家银行。该名单包括Global Payments、Viatris、Incyte、高通和T-Mobile。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)</p><p><blockquote>我会采取不同的方法。我会青睐那些股价大幅下跌、内部人士最近购买了大量股票的股票——基于我在股票信《重温股票》中分析内部人士购买情况的系统。（您可以在下面的简历中找到我的信的链接。）</blockquote></p><p> The significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.</p><p><blockquote>大量的内部买入表明，商业趋势将支持11月初及以后的股市上涨。我最近在我的股票信中推荐了22个这样的名字。这里有五个可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel; recent price: $48.25</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔；最近价格：$48.25</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-3.1%；较2021年高点-29.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchase</b>: 10/25/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕收购</b>：10/25/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 2.9%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：2.9%</blockquote></p><p> Intel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔公布了不错的业绩并超出了预期，但由于数据中心、所谓的物联网和Mobileye（自动驾驶汽车）的销售强劲，英特尔股价仍在10月底暴跌。问题是：英特尔宣布了激进的资本支出，这将损害利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我喜欢投资于未来的公司，尤其是当消息使他们的股票变得更便宜时。鉴于他们的大量购买，内部人士对此表示同意。英特尔股票今年的下跌意味着几乎任何在2021年买入的人都处于亏损状态。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人在10月底抛售以实现税收损失，加剧了看涨资本支出消息造成的股价疲软。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由市场；最近价格：$1,512</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-7.8%；较2021年高点-23.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/18/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/18/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: None</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：无</blockquote></p><p> This online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>这家拉丁美洲的在线零售商今年过得很好。与去年同期相比，第二季度销售额增长了100%以上。其用户群增长了47%，达到7590万购物者。该股今年已两次飙升至1800美元至2000美元区间。但最近它以及许多大型科技股都表现疲软。任何今年买入峰值的人在10月下旬都下跌了不少，可能会抛售以获取税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.</p><p><blockquote>但内部人士看涨，为什么不呢？拉丁美洲的在线零售采用落后，因此要赶上世界其他地区，它还有很大的增长空间。它会赶上的。拉丁美洲配送中心和最后一英里枢纽的增长支持了这一趋势。研究组织eMarketer表示，未来几年，拉丁美洲将实现全球最快的电子商务年销售额增长——比全球平均水平高出约10个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Krispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86</b></p><p><blockquote><b>甜甜圈；最近价格：$12.86</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-17.7%；较2021年高点-38.9%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21至9/10/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.1%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.1%</blockquote></p><p> Krispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme于7月初再次作为股票上市，价格在16美元至21美元之间。该股目前交易价格为12.89美元，几乎处于历史低点。这意味着任何购买的资金都在水下。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人都希望实现税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>但有几个看涨的理由。其中之一是专门从事消费品股票的欧洲公司JAB Holding的大举买入。其次，Krispy Kreme的增长强劲。该公司报告第二季度有机销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store&nbsp;display cases in grocery and convenience stores.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme在纽约、芝加哥、波士顿和明尼阿波利斯等几个代表性不足的美国主要市场有很大的增长空间。它在中国、巴西和西欧部分地区还有增长空间。它还推出了耐储存的包装产品，并在杂货店和便利店设立了更多的店内陈列柜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lamb Weston; recent price: $57.49</b></p><p><blockquote><b>兰姆·韦斯顿；最近价格：$57.49</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-25.9%；较2021年高点-32.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：10/11/21至10/20/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.6%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.6%</blockquote></p><p> If you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s&nbsp;is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.</p><p><blockquote>如果你在用餐时点了薯条，很可能你是这家公司的顾客。Lamb Weston是餐厅冷冻薯条的大型生产商。这家公司总部位于爱达荷州（恰如其分），向北美和海外排名前100的连锁餐厅销售产品。麦当劳是大客户。你也可以在杂货店找到它的产品，在爱达荷州种植和亚历克西娅品牌下。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直保持强劲的销售增长，但盈利受到了——你猜对了——通货膨胀和供应链问题的打击。这可能需要几个季度的时间，但这些都是暂时的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，兰姆韦斯顿一直在提高其产品的价格，这也将抵消损失。只是需要一些时间。另一个优势：Lamb Weston在高增长的新兴市场拥有很大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新堡垒能源；近期价格：$30.56</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：-44.4%;较2021年高点-54.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.3%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.3%</blockquote></p><p> I originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.</p><p><blockquote>我最初在2019年6月的股票信中以10-11美元的价格向订阅者建议了这个能源基础设施名称。尽管今年大幅下跌，我们的股价仍然上涨了两倍。我认为该股在当前的回调中值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>New Fortress Energy在美国购买天然气，将其冷冻成易于运输的液态天然气，然后出售给从更脏的柴油和重燃料油转换的国家——通常是加勒比海和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心天然气成本上涨和该公司巨额债务负担，New Fortress Energy股价下跌。但天然气价格将在冬季供暖季后降温，持续增长将有助于公司管理债务水平。</blockquote></p><p> Insiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士肯定是这么认为的。业绩良好的高管最近购买了价值100万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Remember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，税亏损销售反弹候选人可能在12月底遭受另一轮疲软，因为散户投资者必须在年底前完成他们的税亏损销售。这将是为这些公司增加价值的又一个机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPut these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 14:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks</p><p><blockquote>专业投资者往往会在10月底之前抛售一些输家，从而在一些股票中创造更大的价值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bf4db267085a8c096970906864e7ff\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者刚刚完成了税收损失抛售。所以是时候在废墟中寻找便宜货了。</blockquote></p><p> This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>这种交易一直运作良好，因为共同基金和其他大型投资者必须在10月31日之前实现税收损失。之后，他们打击的股票往往会跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> By how much?</p><p><blockquote>多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Since 1986, S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>根据美银的数据，自1986年以来，标普500股市在今年前10个月下跌了10%以上（最大的税收损失抛售候选者），在随后的三个月上涨了5.6%。这比标普500同期3.9%的平均回报率高出1.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> After tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling&nbsp;three-month periods, says Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在税收损失抛售之后，这些股票可以从季节性看涨的市场顺风中获得提振。美银表示，自1936年以来，11月1日至1月31日期间，标普500平均上涨4.5%，而所有其他滚动三个月期间的平均涨幅为2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&amp;P 500 for stocks with&nbsp;year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm&nbsp;and T-Mobile.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，机构投资者一直是股票的大卖家，他们严重依赖税收损失抛售候选人。为了找到最好的便宜货，美银在标普500上筛选了年初至今(YTD)跌幅超过10%的股票。然后该银行建议客户考虑其给予买入评级的13家银行。该名单包括Global Payments、Viatris、Incyte、高通和T-Mobile。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)</p><p><blockquote>我会采取不同的方法。我会青睐那些股价大幅下跌、内部人士最近购买了大量股票的股票——基于我在股票信《重温股票》中分析内部人士购买情况的系统。（您可以在下面的简历中找到我的信的链接。）</blockquote></p><p> The significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.</p><p><blockquote>大量的内部买入表明，商业趋势将支持11月初及以后的股市上涨。我最近在我的股票信中推荐了22个这样的名字。这里有五个可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel; recent price: $48.25</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔；最近价格：$48.25</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-3.1%；较2021年高点-29.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchase</b>: 10/25/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕收购</b>：10/25/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 2.9%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：2.9%</blockquote></p><p> Intel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔公布了不错的业绩并超出了预期，但由于数据中心、所谓的物联网和Mobileye（自动驾驶汽车）的销售强劲，英特尔股价仍在10月底暴跌。问题是：英特尔宣布了激进的资本支出，这将损害利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我喜欢投资于未来的公司，尤其是当消息使他们的股票变得更便宜时。鉴于他们的大量购买，内部人士对此表示同意。英特尔股票今年的下跌意味着几乎任何在2021年买入的人都处于亏损状态。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人在10月底抛售以实现税收损失，加剧了看涨资本支出消息造成的股价疲软。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由市场；最近价格：$1,512</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-7.8%；较2021年高点-23.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/18/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/18/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: None</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：无</blockquote></p><p> This online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>这家拉丁美洲的在线零售商今年过得很好。与去年同期相比，第二季度销售额增长了100%以上。其用户群增长了47%，达到7590万购物者。该股今年已两次飙升至1800美元至2000美元区间。但最近它以及许多大型科技股都表现疲软。任何今年买入峰值的人在10月下旬都下跌了不少，可能会抛售以获取税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.</p><p><blockquote>但内部人士看涨，为什么不呢？拉丁美洲的在线零售采用落后，因此要赶上世界其他地区，它还有很大的增长空间。它会赶上的。拉丁美洲配送中心和最后一英里枢纽的增长支持了这一趋势。研究组织eMarketer表示，未来几年，拉丁美洲将实现全球最快的电子商务年销售额增长——比全球平均水平高出约10个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Krispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86</b></p><p><blockquote><b>甜甜圈；最近价格：$12.86</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-17.7%；较2021年高点-38.9%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21至9/10/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.1%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.1%</blockquote></p><p> Krispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme于7月初再次作为股票上市，价格在16美元至21美元之间。该股目前交易价格为12.89美元，几乎处于历史低点。这意味着任何购买的资金都在水下。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人都希望实现税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>但有几个看涨的理由。其中之一是专门从事消费品股票的欧洲公司JAB Holding的大举买入。其次，Krispy Kreme的增长强劲。该公司报告第二季度有机销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store&nbsp;display cases in grocery and convenience stores.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme在纽约、芝加哥、波士顿和明尼阿波利斯等几个代表性不足的美国主要市场有很大的增长空间。它在中国、巴西和西欧部分地区还有增长空间。它还推出了耐储存的包装产品，并在杂货店和便利店设立了更多的店内陈列柜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lamb Weston; recent price: $57.49</b></p><p><blockquote><b>兰姆·韦斯顿；最近价格：$57.49</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-25.9%；较2021年高点-32.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：10/11/21至10/20/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.6%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.6%</blockquote></p><p> If you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s&nbsp;is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.</p><p><blockquote>如果你在用餐时点了薯条，很可能你是这家公司的顾客。Lamb Weston是餐厅冷冻薯条的大型生产商。这家公司总部位于爱达荷州（恰如其分），向北美和海外排名前100的连锁餐厅销售产品。麦当劳是大客户。你也可以在杂货店找到它的产品，在爱达荷州种植和亚历克西娅品牌下。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直保持强劲的销售增长，但盈利受到了——你猜对了——通货膨胀和供应链问题的打击。这可能需要几个季度的时间，但这些都是暂时的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，兰姆韦斯顿一直在提高其产品的价格，这也将抵消损失。只是需要一些时间。另一个优势：Lamb Weston在高增长的新兴市场拥有很大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新堡垒能源；近期价格：$30.56</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：-44.4%;较2021年高点-54.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.3%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.3%</blockquote></p><p> I originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.</p><p><blockquote>我最初在2019年6月的股票信中以10-11美元的价格向订阅者建议了这个能源基础设施名称。尽管今年大幅下跌，我们的股价仍然上涨了两倍。我认为该股在当前的回调中值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>New Fortress Energy在美国购买天然气，将其冷冻成易于运输的液态天然气，然后出售给从更脏的柴油和重燃料油转换的国家——通常是加勒比海和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心天然气成本上涨和该公司巨额债务负担，New Fortress Energy股价下跌。但天然气价格将在冬季供暖季后降温，持续增长将有助于公司管理债务水平。</blockquote></p><p> Insiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士肯定是这么认为的。业绩良好的高管最近购买了价值100万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Remember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，税亏损销售反弹候选人可能在12月底遭受另一轮疲软，因为散户投资者必须在年底前完成他们的税亏损销售。这将是为这些公司增加价值的又一个机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc.","GPN":"环汇有限公司","QCOM":"高通","NFE":"New Fortress Energy LLC","MELI":"MercadoLibre","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","INTC":"英特尔","INCY":"因塞特医疗","LW":"Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196323855","content_text":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks\nPhoto by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images\nBig investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.\nThis trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.\nBy how much?\nSince 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.\nAfter tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling three-month periods, says Bank of America.\nInstitutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&P 500 for stocks with year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm and T-Mobile.\nI’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)\nThe significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.\nIntel; recent price: $48.25\nStock decline: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchase: 10/25/21\nYield: 2.9%\nIntel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.\nPersonally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.\nMercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512\nStock decline: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/18/21\nYield: None\nThis online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.\nBut insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.\nKrispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86\nStock decline: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21\nYield: 1.1%\nKrispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.\nBut there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.\nKrispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store display cases in grocery and convenience stores.\nLamb Weston; recent price: $57.49\nStock decline: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21\nYield: 1.6%\nIf you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.\nThe company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.\nMeanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.\nNew Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56\nStock decline: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21\nYield: 1.3%\nI originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.\nNew Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.\nNew Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.\nInsiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.\nRemember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LW":0.9,"DNUT":0.9,"INCY":0.9,"VTRS":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"MELI":0.9,"GPN":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"NFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":114405654,"gmtCreate":1623083823878,"gmtModify":1634037113206,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114405654","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114402709,"gmtCreate":1623083791101,"gmtModify":1634037113773,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114402709","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114406586,"gmtCreate":1623083713445,"gmtModify":1634037114852,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To e moon","listText":"To e moon","text":"To e moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d276ebb4d27d343dfa15a1d93f629625","width":"1125","height":"2979"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114406586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112029804,"gmtCreate":1622826601508,"gmtModify":1634097589617,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon","listText":"Moon","text":"Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112029804","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118535703,"gmtCreate":1622737588402,"gmtModify":1634098515748,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118535703","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111761505,"gmtCreate":1622700527407,"gmtModify":1634098992917,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111761505","repostId":"2140449421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329799457,"gmtCreate":1615277901079,"gmtModify":1703486621317,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575975726985689","idStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329799457","repostId":"2117696928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841056805,"gmtCreate":1635864630412,"gmtModify":1635864630412,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Super","listText":"Super","text":"Super","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841056805","repostId":"1196323855","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196323855","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635835644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196323855?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 14:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196323855","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks. Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.Since 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the","content":"<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks</p><p><blockquote>专业投资者往往会在10月底之前抛售一些输家，从而在一些股票中创造更大的价值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bf4db267085a8c096970906864e7ff\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者刚刚完成了税收损失抛售。所以是时候在废墟中寻找便宜货了。</blockquote></p><p> This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>这种交易一直运作良好，因为共同基金和其他大型投资者必须在10月31日之前实现税收损失。之后，他们打击的股票往往会跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> By how much?</p><p><blockquote>多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Since 1986, S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>根据美银的数据，自1986年以来，标普500股市在今年前10个月下跌了10%以上（最大的税收损失抛售候选者），在随后的三个月上涨了5.6%。这比标普500同期3.9%的平均回报率高出1.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> After tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling&nbsp;three-month periods, says Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在税收损失抛售之后，这些股票可以从季节性看涨的市场顺风中获得提振。美银表示，自1936年以来，11月1日至1月31日期间，标普500平均上涨4.5%，而所有其他滚动三个月期间的平均涨幅为2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&amp;P 500 for stocks with&nbsp;year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm&nbsp;and T-Mobile.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，机构投资者一直是股票的大卖家，他们严重依赖税收损失抛售候选人。为了找到最好的便宜货，美银在标普500上筛选了年初至今(YTD)跌幅超过10%的股票。然后该银行建议客户考虑其给予买入评级的13家银行。该名单包括Global Payments、Viatris、Incyte、高通和T-Mobile。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)</p><p><blockquote>我会采取不同的方法。我会青睐那些股价大幅下跌、内部人士最近购买了大量股票的股票——基于我在股票信《重温股票》中分析内部人士购买情况的系统。（您可以在下面的简历中找到我的信的链接。）</blockquote></p><p> The significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.</p><p><blockquote>大量的内部买入表明，商业趋势将支持11月初及以后的股市上涨。我最近在我的股票信中推荐了22个这样的名字。这里有五个可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel; recent price: $48.25</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔；最近价格：$48.25</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-3.1%；较2021年高点-29.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchase</b>: 10/25/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕收购</b>：10/25/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 2.9%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：2.9%</blockquote></p><p> Intel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔公布了不错的业绩并超出了预期，但由于数据中心、所谓的物联网和Mobileye（自动驾驶汽车）的销售强劲，英特尔股价仍在10月底暴跌。问题是：英特尔宣布了激进的资本支出，这将损害利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我喜欢投资于未来的公司，尤其是当消息使他们的股票变得更便宜时。鉴于他们的大量购买，内部人士对此表示同意。英特尔股票今年的下跌意味着几乎任何在2021年买入的人都处于亏损状态。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人在10月底抛售以实现税收损失，加剧了看涨资本支出消息造成的股价疲软。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由市场；最近价格：$1,512</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-7.8%；较2021年高点-23.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/18/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/18/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: None</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：无</blockquote></p><p> This online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>这家拉丁美洲的在线零售商今年过得很好。与去年同期相比，第二季度销售额增长了100%以上。其用户群增长了47%，达到7590万购物者。该股今年已两次飙升至1800美元至2000美元区间。但最近它以及许多大型科技股都表现疲软。任何今年买入峰值的人在10月下旬都下跌了不少，可能会抛售以获取税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.</p><p><blockquote>但内部人士看涨，为什么不呢？拉丁美洲的在线零售采用落后，因此要赶上世界其他地区，它还有很大的增长空间。它会赶上的。拉丁美洲配送中心和最后一英里枢纽的增长支持了这一趋势。研究组织eMarketer表示，未来几年，拉丁美洲将实现全球最快的电子商务年销售额增长——比全球平均水平高出约10个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Krispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86</b></p><p><blockquote><b>甜甜圈；最近价格：$12.86</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-17.7%；较2021年高点-38.9%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21至9/10/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.1%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.1%</blockquote></p><p> Krispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme于7月初再次作为股票上市，价格在16美元至21美元之间。该股目前交易价格为12.89美元，几乎处于历史低点。这意味着任何购买的资金都在水下。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人都希望实现税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>但有几个看涨的理由。其中之一是专门从事消费品股票的欧洲公司JAB Holding的大举买入。其次，Krispy Kreme的增长强劲。该公司报告第二季度有机销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store&nbsp;display cases in grocery and convenience stores.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme在纽约、芝加哥、波士顿和明尼阿波利斯等几个代表性不足的美国主要市场有很大的增长空间。它在中国、巴西和西欧部分地区还有增长空间。它还推出了耐储存的包装产品，并在杂货店和便利店设立了更多的店内陈列柜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lamb Weston; recent price: $57.49</b></p><p><blockquote><b>兰姆·韦斯顿；最近价格：$57.49</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-25.9%；较2021年高点-32.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：10/11/21至10/20/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.6%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.6%</blockquote></p><p> If you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s&nbsp;is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.</p><p><blockquote>如果你在用餐时点了薯条，很可能你是这家公司的顾客。Lamb Weston是餐厅冷冻薯条的大型生产商。这家公司总部位于爱达荷州（恰如其分），向北美和海外排名前100的连锁餐厅销售产品。麦当劳是大客户。你也可以在杂货店找到它的产品，在爱达荷州种植和亚历克西娅品牌下。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直保持强劲的销售增长，但盈利受到了——你猜对了——通货膨胀和供应链问题的打击。这可能需要几个季度的时间，但这些都是暂时的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，兰姆韦斯顿一直在提高其产品的价格，这也将抵消损失。只是需要一些时间。另一个优势：Lamb Weston在高增长的新兴市场拥有很大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新堡垒能源；近期价格：$30.56</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：-44.4%;较2021年高点-54.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.3%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.3%</blockquote></p><p> I originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.</p><p><blockquote>我最初在2019年6月的股票信中以10-11美元的价格向订阅者建议了这个能源基础设施名称。尽管今年大幅下跌，我们的股价仍然上涨了两倍。我认为该股在当前的回调中值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>New Fortress Energy在美国购买天然气，将其冷冻成易于运输的液态天然气，然后出售给从更脏的柴油和重燃料油转换的国家——通常是加勒比海和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心天然气成本上涨和该公司巨额债务负担，New Fortress Energy股价下跌。但天然气价格将在冬季供暖季后降温，持续增长将有助于公司管理债务水平。</blockquote></p><p> Insiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士肯定是这么认为的。业绩良好的高管最近购买了价值100万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Remember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，税亏损销售反弹候选人可能在12月底遭受另一轮疲软，因为散户投资者必须在年底前完成他们的税亏损销售。这将是为这些公司增加价值的又一个机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Put these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPut these 10 stocks on your radar because they may rebound from recent tax-loss selling<blockquote>关注这10只股票，因为它们可能会从最近的税收损失抛售中反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 14:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks</p><p><blockquote>专业投资者往往会在10月底之前抛售一些输家，从而在一些股票中创造更大的价值</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2bf4db267085a8c096970906864e7ff\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Big investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者刚刚完成了税收损失抛售。所以是时候在废墟中寻找便宜货了。</blockquote></p><p> This trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.</p><p><blockquote>这种交易一直运作良好，因为共同基金和其他大型投资者必须在10月31日之前实现税收损失。之后，他们打击的股票往往会跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> By how much?</p><p><blockquote>多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Since 1986, S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&amp;P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.</p><p><blockquote>根据美银的数据，自1986年以来，标普500股市在今年前10个月下跌了10%以上（最大的税收损失抛售候选者），在随后的三个月上涨了5.6%。这比标普500同期3.9%的平均回报率高出1.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> After tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&amp;P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling&nbsp;three-month periods, says Bank of America.</p><p><blockquote>在税收损失抛售之后，这些股票可以从季节性看涨的市场顺风中获得提振。美银表示，自1936年以来，11月1日至1月31日期间，标普500平均上涨4.5%，而所有其他滚动三个月期间的平均涨幅为2.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&amp;P 500 for stocks with&nbsp;year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm&nbsp;and T-Mobile.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，机构投资者一直是股票的大卖家，他们严重依赖税收损失抛售候选人。为了找到最好的便宜货，美银在标普500上筛选了年初至今(YTD)跌幅超过10%的股票。然后该银行建议客户考虑其给予买入评级的13家银行。该名单包括Global Payments、Viatris、Incyte、高通和T-Mobile。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)</p><p><blockquote>我会采取不同的方法。我会青睐那些股价大幅下跌、内部人士最近购买了大量股票的股票——基于我在股票信《重温股票》中分析内部人士购买情况的系统。（您可以在下面的简历中找到我的信的链接。）</blockquote></p><p> The significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.</p><p><blockquote>大量的内部买入表明，商业趋势将支持11月初及以后的股市上涨。我最近在我的股票信中推荐了22个这样的名字。这里有五个可以考虑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel; recent price: $48.25</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔；最近价格：$48.25</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-3.1%；较2021年高点-29.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchase</b>: 10/25/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕收购</b>：10/25/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 2.9%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：2.9%</blockquote></p><p> Intel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英特尔公布了不错的业绩并超出了预期，但由于数据中心、所谓的物联网和Mobileye（自动驾驶汽车）的销售强劲，英特尔股价仍在10月底暴跌。问题是：英特尔宣布了激进的资本支出，这将损害利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我喜欢投资于未来的公司，尤其是当消息使他们的股票变得更便宜时。鉴于他们的大量购买，内部人士对此表示同意。英特尔股票今年的下跌意味着几乎任何在2021年买入的人都处于亏损状态。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人在10月底抛售以实现税收损失，加剧了看涨资本支出消息造成的股价疲软。</blockquote></p><p> <b>MercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由市场；最近价格：$1,512</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-7.8%；较2021年高点-23.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/18/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/18/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: None</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：无</blockquote></p><p> This online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>这家拉丁美洲的在线零售商今年过得很好。与去年同期相比，第二季度销售额增长了100%以上。其用户群增长了47%，达到7590万购物者。该股今年已两次飙升至1800美元至2000美元区间。但最近它以及许多大型科技股都表现疲软。任何今年买入峰值的人在10月下旬都下跌了不少，可能会抛售以获取税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.</p><p><blockquote>但内部人士看涨，为什么不呢？拉丁美洲的在线零售采用落后，因此要赶上世界其他地区，它还有很大的增长空间。它会赶上的。拉丁美洲配送中心和最后一英里枢纽的增长支持了这一趋势。研究组织eMarketer表示，未来几年，拉丁美洲将实现全球最快的电子商务年销售额增长——比全球平均水平高出约10个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Krispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86</b></p><p><blockquote><b>甜甜圈；最近价格：$12.86</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-17.7%；较2021年高点-38.9%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21至9/10/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.1%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.1%</blockquote></p><p> Krispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme于7月初再次作为股票上市，价格在16美元至21美元之间。该股目前交易价格为12.89美元，几乎处于历史低点。这意味着任何购买的资金都在水下。毫无疑问，他们中的许多人都希望实现税收损失。</blockquote></p><p> But there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>但有几个看涨的理由。其中之一是专门从事消费品股票的欧洲公司JAB Holding的大举买入。其次，Krispy Kreme的增长强劲。该公司报告第二季度有机销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Krispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store&nbsp;display cases in grocery and convenience stores.</p><p><blockquote>Krispy Kreme在纽约、芝加哥、波士顿和明尼阿波利斯等几个代表性不足的美国主要市场有很大的增长空间。它在中国、巴西和西欧部分地区还有增长空间。它还推出了耐储存的包装产品，并在杂货店和便利店设立了更多的店内陈列柜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lamb Weston; recent price: $57.49</b></p><p><blockquote><b>兰姆·韦斯顿；最近价格：$57.49</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：年初至今-25.9%；较2021年高点-32.5%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：10/11/21至10/20/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.6%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.6%</blockquote></p><p> If you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s&nbsp;is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.</p><p><blockquote>如果你在用餐时点了薯条，很可能你是这家公司的顾客。Lamb Weston是餐厅冷冻薯条的大型生产商。这家公司总部位于爱达荷州（恰如其分），向北美和海外排名前100的连锁餐厅销售产品。麦当劳是大客户。你也可以在杂货店找到它的产品，在爱达荷州种植和亚历克西娅品牌下。</blockquote></p><p> The company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.</p><p><blockquote>该公司一直保持强劲的销售增长，但盈利受到了——你猜对了——通货膨胀和供应链问题的打击。这可能需要几个季度的时间，但这些都是暂时的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，兰姆韦斯顿一直在提高其产品的价格，这也将抵消损失。只是需要一些时间。另一个优势：Lamb Weston在高增长的新兴市场拥有很大的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新堡垒能源；近期价格：$30.56</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock decline</b>: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high</p><p><blockquote><b>股票下跌</b>：-44.4%;较2021年高点-54.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>Latest insider purchases</b>: 8/19/21</p><p><blockquote><b>最新内幕购买</b>：8/19/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yield</b>: 1.3%</p><p><blockquote><b>产量</b>：1.3%</blockquote></p><p> I originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.</p><p><blockquote>我最初在2019年6月的股票信中以10-11美元的价格向订阅者建议了这个能源基础设施名称。尽管今年大幅下跌，我们的股价仍然上涨了两倍。我认为该股在当前的回调中值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.</p><p><blockquote>New Fortress Energy在美国购买天然气，将其冷冻成易于运输的液态天然气，然后出售给从更脏的柴油和重燃料油转换的国家——通常是加勒比海和拉丁美洲。</blockquote></p><p> New Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心天然气成本上涨和该公司巨额债务负担，New Fortress Energy股价下跌。但天然气价格将在冬季供暖季后降温，持续增长将有助于公司管理债务水平。</blockquote></p><p> Insiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.</p><p><blockquote>业内人士肯定是这么认为的。业绩良好的高管最近购买了价值100万美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Remember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，税亏损销售反弹候选人可能在12月底遭受另一轮疲软，因为散户投资者必须在年底前完成他们的税亏损销售。这将是为这些公司增加价值的又一个机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","DNUT":"Krispy Kreme, Inc.","GPN":"环汇有限公司","QCOM":"高通","NFE":"New Fortress Energy LLC","MELI":"MercadoLibre","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc","INTC":"英特尔","INCY":"因塞特医疗","LW":"Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-these-10-stocks-on-your-radar-because-they-may-rebound-from-recent-tax-loss-selling-11635776937?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196323855","content_text":"Professional investors tend to dump some of their losers by the end of October, creating greater value in some stocks\nPhoto by Jack Atley/ALLSPORT/Getty Images\nBig investors just finished their tax-loss selling. So it’s time to root through the wreckage to find bargains to buy.\nThis trade consistently works well because mutual funds and other large investors have to realize their tax losses by Oct. 31. After that, the stocks that they hammered tend to outperform.\nBy how much?\nSince 1986, S&P 500 stocks down more than 10% in the first 10 months of the year (the top tax-loss selling candidates) rose 5.6% over the subsequent three months, according to Bank of America. That’s 1.6 percentage point outperformance relative to the S&P 500’s average return of 3.9% during the same time.\nAfter tax-loss selling, these stocks can get a boost from seasonally bullish market tailwinds. During Nov. 1 through Jan. 31, the S&P 500 has averaged 4.5% gains since 1936, compared with 2.9% for all other rolling three-month periods, says Bank of America.\nInstitutional investors have been big sellers of stock in recent weeks, and they’ve leaned heavily on their tax-loss selling candidates. To find the best bargains, Bank of America screened the S&P 500 for stocks with year-to-date (YTD) declines greater than 10%. Then the bank suggested clients consider the 13 it has buy ratings on. That list includes Global Payments,Viatris,Incyte,Qualcomm and T-Mobile.\nI’ll take a different approach. I’ll favor names that are down a lot where insiders were recently buying a meaningful amount of stock — based on my system of analyzing insider purchases at my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks. (You can find the link to my letter in the bio below.)\nThe significant insider buying suggests that business trends will support stock gains from early November and beyond. I recently suggested 22 of these names in my stock letter. Here are five to consider.\nIntel; recent price: $48.25\nStock decline: -3.1% YTD; -29.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchase: 10/25/21\nYield: 2.9%\nIntel stock cracked in late October even though the company posted decent results and beat estimates, thanks to sales strength in data centers, the so-called Internet of Things and Mobileye (self-driving cars). The problem: Intel announced aggressive capital spending that will hurt margins.\nPersonally, I like companies that invest in their future, especially when the news makes their shares cheaper. Insiders agree, given their large buying. The Intel stock decline this year means virtually anyone who bought in 2021 has a losing position. No doubt many of them were selling in late October to realize tax losses, compounding the stock weakness caused by the bullish capital-spending news.\nMercadoLibre; recent price: $1,512\nStock decline: -7.8% YTD; -23.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/18/21\nYield: None\nThis online retailer in Latin America is having a good year. Sales were up over 100% in the second quarter compared to the year before. Its user base grew 47% to 75.9 million shoppers. The stock has soared into the $1,800 to $2,000 range twice this year. But it’s been weak lately, along with a lot of large-cap tech. Anybody who bought the spikes this year was down quite a bit in late October and probably selling to reap tax losses.\nBut insiders are bullish, and why not? Online retail adoption is behind in Latin America, so it has plenty of growth ahead just to catch up with the rest of the world. It will catch up. The growth in distribution centers and last-mile hubs in Latin America supports the trend. The research group eMarketer says Latin America will post the fastest annual e-commerce sales growth in the world over the next several years — about 10 percentage points higher than the global average.\nKrispy Kreme; recent price: $12.86\nStock decline: -17.7% YTD; -38.9% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21 to 9/10/21\nYield: 1.1%\nKrispy Kreme debuted as a stock again in early July in the $16 to $21 range. The stock now trades at $12.89, virtually at the all-time lows. This means any funds that purchased are underwater. Many of them were no doubt looking to realize tax losses.\nBut there are several reasons to be bullish. One is big buying by JAB Holding, a European company specializing in consumer-goods stocks. Next, Krispy Kreme’s growth is robust. It reported 23% organic sales growth in the second quarter.\nKrispy Kreme has plenty of room to grow in several key U.S. markets where it is underrepresented, such as New York, Chicago, Boston and Minneapolis. It has room to grow in China, Brazil, and parts of Western Europe. It is also rolling out shelf-stable packaged products, and setting up more in-store display cases in grocery and convenience stores.\nLamb Weston; recent price: $57.49\nStock decline: -25.9% YTD; -32.5% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 10/11/21 through 10/20/21\nYield: 1.6%\nIf you order fries with your meal, the chances are you’re a customer of this company. Lamb Weston is a huge producer of frozen fries cooked up in restaurants. Based in Idaho (appropriately), this company sells to the top 100 restaurant chains in North America and overseas. McDonald’s is a big customer. You can find its products in grocery stores, too, under the Grown in Idaho and Alexia brands.\nThe company has been posting strong sales growth, but earnings have been hit by — you guessed it — inflation and supply-chain problems. It may take a few quarters, but these will turn out to be temporary problems.\nMeanwhile, Lamb Weston has been raising prices on its products, and that too will offset the damage. It just takes some time. Another strength: Lamb Weston has a big presence in high-growth emerging markets.\nNew Fortress Energy; recent price: $30.56\nStock decline: -44.4%; -54.8% from 2021 high\nLatest insider purchases: 8/19/21\nYield: 1.3%\nI originally suggested this energy-infrastructure name to subscribers in my stock letter at $10-$11 in June 2019. We still have a triple in the shares despite the big declines this year. I think the stock is a buy in the current pullback.\nNew Fortress Energy buys natural gas in the U.S., freezes it into easily shippable liquid natural gas, and then sells to countries converting from dirtier diesel and heavy fuel oil — typically in the Caribbean and Latin America.\nNew Fortress Energy stock is down because of concerns about the rising cost of natural gas and the company’s large debt load. But natural gas prices will cool off after the winter heating season, and continued growth will help the company manage its debt levels.\nInsiders sure think so. Execs with solid records recently bought $1 million worth of stock.\nRemember that tax-loss-selling-rebound candidates can suffer another bout of weakness in late December, since retail investors must do their tax-loss selling by the end of the year. That’ll just be another opportunity to add to these companies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LW":0.9,"DNUT":0.9,"INCY":0.9,"VTRS":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"MELI":0.9,"GPN":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"TMUS":0.9,"NFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112029804,"gmtCreate":1622826601508,"gmtModify":1634097589617,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moon","listText":"Moon","text":"Moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112029804","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111761505,"gmtCreate":1622700527407,"gmtModify":1634098992917,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111761505","repostId":"2140449421","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118535703,"gmtCreate":1622737588402,"gmtModify":1634098515748,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118535703","repostId":"2140247164","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329799457,"gmtCreate":1615277901079,"gmtModify":1703486621317,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329799457","repostId":"2117696928","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114405654,"gmtCreate":1623083823878,"gmtModify":1634037113206,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114405654","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114402709,"gmtCreate":1623083791101,"gmtModify":1634037113773,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114402709","repostId":"1196162025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114406586,"gmtCreate":1623083713445,"gmtModify":1634037114852,"author":{"id":"3575975726985689","authorId":"3575975726985689","name":"Jetlee","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575975726985689","authorIdStr":"3575975726985689"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To e moon","listText":"To e moon","text":"To e moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d276ebb4d27d343dfa15a1d93f629625","width":"1125","height":"2979"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114406586","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}