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2021-09-17

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2021-09-16

Wow

Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>

2021-09-15

Oh

U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Ok

S&P 500 snaps losing streak with tax hikes, inflation data on horizon<blockquote>标普500加税结束连败，通胀数据即将公布</blockquote>

2021-09-13

Ooh

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2021-09-12

Ok

US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：秋季 IPO 市场以第 10 周 IPO 拉开帷幕</blockquote>

2021-09-11

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2021-09-10

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2021-09-08

Oh

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2021-09-07

Ok

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2021-09-06

Wow

Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-05

Ye

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2021-09-04

Wow

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2021-09-02

Wa

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2021-09-01

Ok

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2021-08-31

Well

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2021-08-30

Ok

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2021-08-29

Nice

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2021-08-27

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2021-08-26

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"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884145867","repostId":"2168529607","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885662903,"gmtCreate":1631787275002,"gmtModify":1631888581733,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885662903","repostId":"1126607843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126607843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631785252,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126607843?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126607843","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 17:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126607843","content_text":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.\nApple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nIn the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.\n\nvicnt/iStock via Getty Images\nAs an introduction...\nSince the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:\nData by YCharts\nFor a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nIn addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.\nFirst, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:\nSource: Bank of America\nSecond, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is already outlined.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nAnd finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSo, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?\nWhy Apple vs. Microsoft?\nThe decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.\nFirstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSecondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.\nSome Statistics\nTo begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.\nTo do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:\nSource: TradingView, Author\nHere are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:\nSource: Author\nAt first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.\nBut in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...\nFundamentals\nExclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.\nOn the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's future cash flow. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of all potential dividendsthat the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.\nIn order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.\nLet's start with Apple. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nNotes:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).\nI used the current value of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.\n\nHere is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).\nIn the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:\nData by YCharts\nContinuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.\nApple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).\nNow let's take a look at Microsoft.\nHere is the calculation of the WACC:\nSource: Author\nAnd here is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).\nMicrosoft is also actively buying back shares:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).\nLet's summarize:\n\nIt is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nThis suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.\nBut during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.\nBottom line\nAt the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882891973,"gmtCreate":1631671461792,"gmtModify":1631888581749,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882891973","repostId":"1148341685","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148341685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631660884,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148341685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148341685","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 尽管有通胀放缓的迹象，但经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性不断增加抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，华尔街周二下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>乐观情绪在整个交易日逐渐消退，扭转了劳工部发布消费者价格指数报告后最初的反弹势头。美国三大股指均以负值收盘，这提醒人们，9 月份是股市历史上最艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月到目前为止，标普500下跌了近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 说：”市场有可能只是准备好经历一场迟来的调整。“从季节性来看，9月份往往是基金经理的窗口期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现推动了对全球健康危机复苏的看跌情绪的增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 Kingsview Asset Management 的投资组合经理保罗-诺尔特（Paul Nolte）说：”我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这恰逢德尔塔变异毒株的上升”。</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份数据低于共识，这一放缓支持了美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的断言，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对央行将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，美国国债收益率下降，给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐以牺牲价值为代价重新转向增长。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的企业税上调幅度将从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌292.06点，跌幅0.84%，报34,577.57点；标普500下跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 67.82 点，跌幅 0.45%，至 15,037.76 点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块全部收红，其中能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了 iPhone 13，并为其 iPad 和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为日益严格的审查。其股价收盘下跌 1.0%，是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Intuit Inc 上涨了 1.9%，此前这家涡轮税制造商宣布将以 120 亿美元收购数字营销公司 Mailchimp。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司 CureVac 取消其实验性 COVID-19 疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌 8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.25 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.40 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 100.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 93.8 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes<blockquote>由于对经济复苏和企业增税的担忧，美国股市收盘走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 尽管有通胀放缓的迹象，但经济不确定性和企业税率上调的可能性不断增加抑制了投资者情绪，并引发了广泛的抛售，华尔街周二下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Optimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>乐观情绪在整个交易日逐渐消退，扭转了劳工部发布消费者价格指数报告后最初的反弹势头。美国三大股指均以负值收盘，这提醒人们，9 月份是股市历史上最艰难的一个月。</blockquote></p><p> So far this month the S&amp;P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote>本月到目前为止，标普500下跌了近1.8%，尽管基准指数自年初以来已上涨超过18%。</blockquote></p><p> “There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 CFRA Research 首席投资策略师 Sam Stovall 说：”市场有可能只是准备好经历一场迟来的调整。“从季节性来看，9月份往往是基金经理的窗口期。”</blockquote></p><p> The advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>高度传染性的Delta COVID变种的出现推动了对全球健康危机复苏的看跌情绪的增加，许多人现在预计股市将在今年年底前大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”</p><p><blockquote>“芝加哥 Kingsview Asset Management 的投资组合经理保罗-诺尔特（Paul Nolte）说：”我们仍处于人们几个月来一直呼吁的纠正模式。“经济数据点一直低于预期，而这恰逢德尔塔变异毒株的上升”。</blockquote></p><p> The CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布的8月份数据低于共识，这一放缓支持了美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的断言，即通胀飙升是暂时的，并平息了市场对央行将比预期更早开始收紧货币政策的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]</p><p><blockquote>数据显示，美国国债收益率下降，给金融股带来压力，投资者的青睐以牺牲价值为代价重新转向增长。[美国/]</blockquote></p><p> The long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案逐渐接近通过，人们期待已久的企业税上调幅度将从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&amp;P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌292.06点，跌幅0.84%，报34,577.57点；标普500下跌25.68点，跌幅0.57%，报4,443.05点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 67.82 点，跌幅 0.45%，至 15,037.76 点。</blockquote></p><p> All 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块全部收红，其中能源和金融板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司在今年最大的产品发布会上推出了 iPhone 13，并为其 iPad 和苹果手表设备添加了新功能，因为该公司面临着法院对其商业行为日益严格的审查。其股价收盘下跌 1.0%，是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累。</blockquote></p><p> Intuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Intuit Inc 上涨了 1.9%，此前这家涡轮税制造商宣布将以 120 亿美元收购数字营销公司 Mailchimp。</blockquote></p><p> CureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>德国生物技术公司 CureVac 取消其实验性 COVID-19 疫苗的生产交易后，股价下跌 8.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 2.25 比 1；在纳斯达克，2.40 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下两个52周新高和两个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下50个新高和107个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 100.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 93.8 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/u-s-stocks-close-lower-on-worries-over-recovery-corporate-tax-hikes-idUSKBN2GA0W9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148341685","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday as economic uncertainties and the increasing likelihood of a corporate tax rate hike dampened investor sentiment and prompted a broad sell-off despite signs of easing inflation.\nOptimism faded throughout the session, reversing an initial rally following the Labor Department’s consumer price index report. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in negative territory in a reminder that September is a historically rough month for stocks.\nSo far this month the S&P 500 is down nearly 1.8% even as the benchmark index has gained over 18% since the beginning of the year.\n“There is a possibility that the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. “From a seasonality perspective, September tends to be the window dressing period for fund managers.”\nThe advent of the highly contagious Delta COVID variant has driven an increase in bearish sentiment regarding the recovery from the global health crisis, and many now expect a substantial correction in stock markets by the end of the year.\n“We’re still in a corrective mode that people have been calling for months,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago. “Economic data points have been missing estimates, and that has coincided with the rise in the Delta variant.”\nThe CPI report delivered a lower-than-consensus August reading, a deceleration that supports Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that spiking inflation is transitory and calms market fears that the central bank will begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected.\nU.S. Treasury yields dropped on the data, which pressured financial stocks, and investor favor pivoted back to growth at the expense of value. [US/]\nThe long expected corporate tax hikes, to 26.5% from 21% if Democrats prevail, are coming nearer to fruition with U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package inching closer to passage.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 292.06 points, or 0.84%, to 34,577.57; the S&P 500 lost 25.68 points, or 0.57%, at 4,443.05; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 67.82 points, or 0.45%, to 15,037.76.\nAll 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended the session red, with energy and financials suffering the largest percentage drops.\nApple Inc unveiled its iPhone 13 and added new features to its iPad and Apple Watch gadgets in its biggest product launch event of the year as the company faces increased scrutiny in the courts over its business practices. Its shares closed down 1.0% and were the heaviest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.\nIntuit Inc gained 1.9% following the TurboTax maker’s announcement that it would acquire digital marketing company Mailchimp for $12 billion.\nCureVac slid 8.0% after the German biotechnology company canceled manufacturing deals for its experimental COVID-19 vaccine.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.40-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 107 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.07 billion shares, compared with the 9.38 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886691616,"gmtCreate":1631583854635,"gmtModify":1631888581765,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886691616","repostId":"1178276551","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178276551","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631574947,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178276551?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 07:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 snaps losing streak with tax hikes, inflation data on horizon<blockquote>标普500加税结束连败，通胀数据即将公布</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178276551","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed higher on Monday, ending a five-day losing streak as investo","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed higher on Monday, ending a five-day losing streak as investors focused on potential corporate tax hikes and upcoming economic data.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 标普500周一收高，结束连续五天下跌，因投资者关注潜在的企业增税和即将公布的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced, but the Nasdaq Composite Index ended lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数也上涨，但纳斯达克综合指数收低。</blockquote></p><p> Investors favored value over growth, with stocks set to benefit most from a resurging economy enjoying the biggest percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>投资者更青睐价值而非增长，从经济复苏中受益最大的股票将获得最大百分比涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “There are probably not a lot of positive surprises coming this month,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “We’re having another period of volatility where I think that rotation could go back to cyclicals and the reopened trade, as the 10-year bond rate slowly grinds higher through the end of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 说：”本月可能不会有太多积极的惊喜。“随着 10 年期债券利率在年底慢慢走高，我认为轮换可能会回到周期性债券和重新开放的交易中。”</blockquote></p><p> Market participants are focused on the likely passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package, which is expected to include a proposed corporate tax rate hike to 26.5% from 21%.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者关注的焦点是美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案可能获得通过，预计该方案将包括将企业税率从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs analysts see the corporate tax rate increasing to 25% and the passage of about half of a proposed increase to tax rates on foreign income, which they estimate would reduce S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师预计，企业税率将提高到25%，外国所得税率提议中的约一半将获得通过，他们估计这将使标普500在2022年的收益减少5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department is due to release its consumer price index data on Tuesday, which could shed further light on the current inflation wave and whether it is as transitory as the Fed insists.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周二发布消费者价格指数数据，这可能会进一步揭示当前的通胀浪潮，以及它是否像美联储坚称的那样是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t see inflation settling back down under 2% where it was pre-pandemic,” Young added. “Even if some of those transitory forces weaken, we will still stay at a higher rate than we were before.”</p><p><blockquote>“杨补充说：”我认为通胀率不会回到大流行前的 2% 以下。“即使其中一些暂时的力量减弱，我们仍将保持比以前更高的速度”。</blockquote></p><p> Other key indicators due this week include retail sales and consumer sentiment, which could illuminate how much the demand boom driven by economic re-engagement has been dampened by the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他关键指标包括零售销售和消费者信心，这可能表明经济重新参与推动的需求繁荣在多大程度上受到了高度传染性的 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的抑制。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 261.91 points, or 0.76%, to 34,869.63, the S&amp;P 500 gained 10.15 points, or 0.23%, at 4,468.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 9.91 points, or 0.07%, to 15,105.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 261.91 点，或 0.76%，至 34,869.63 点；标普500指数上涨 10.15 点，或 0.23%，至 4,468.73 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 9.91 点，或 0.07%，至 15,105.58 点。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the largest percentage loss, while energy, buoyed by rising crude prices was the biggest gainer.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业的跌幅最大，而受原油价格上涨提振的能源行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer Inc sank 6.6% and 2.2%, respectively, after experts said COVID booster shots are not widely needed.</p><p><blockquote>在专家表示不广泛需要新冠加强注射后，疫苗制造商 Moderna 和辉瑞公司的股价分别下跌 6.6% 和 2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase Global Inc announced plans to raise about $1.5 billion through a debt offering aimed at funding product development and potential acquisitions. The cryptocurrency exchanges shares slid 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币基地全球公司宣布计划通过债务发行筹集约15亿美元，旨在为产品开发和潜在收购提供资金。加密货币交易所股价下跌 2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com Inc dipped 1.2% as rival Freshworks Inc’s regulatory filing indicated that the business engagement and customer engagement software company is aiming for a nearly $9 billion valuation in it U.S. debut.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com Inc 下跌 1.2%，原因是竞争对手 Freshworks Inc 提交的监管文件显示，这家商业参与和客户参与软件公司的目标是在美国首次公开募股时获得近 90 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.60-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.02-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.60 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.02比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 71 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下12个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下53个新高和71个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.30 billion shares, compared with the 9.29 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 103.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 92.9 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 snaps losing streak with tax hikes, inflation data on horizon<blockquote>标普500加税结束连败，通胀数据即将公布</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 07:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 closed higher on Monday, ending a five-day losing streak as investors focused on potential corporate tax hikes and upcoming economic data.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 标普500周一收高，结束连续五天下跌，因投资者关注潜在的企业增税和即将公布的经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced, but the Nasdaq Composite Index ended lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数也上涨，但纳斯达克综合指数收低。</blockquote></p><p> Investors favored value over growth, with stocks set to benefit most from a resurging economy enjoying the biggest percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>投资者更青睐价值而非增长，从经济复苏中受益最大的股票将获得最大百分比涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> “There are probably not a lot of positive surprises coming this month,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “We’re having another period of volatility where I think that rotation could go back to cyclicals and the reopened trade, as the 10-year bond rate slowly grinds higher through the end of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约 SoFi 投资策略主管 Liz Young 说：”本月可能不会有太多积极的惊喜。“随着 10 年期债券利率在年底慢慢走高，我认为轮换可能会回到周期性债券和重新开放的交易中。”</blockquote></p><p> Market participants are focused on the likely passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package, which is expected to include a proposed corporate tax rate hike to 26.5% from 21%.</p><p><blockquote>市场参与者关注的焦点是美国总统乔-拜登（Joe Biden）的 3.5 万亿美元预算方案可能获得通过，预计该方案将包括将企业税率从 21% 提高到 26.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs analysts see the corporate tax rate increasing to 25% and the passage of about half of a proposed increase to tax rates on foreign income, which they estimate would reduce S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5% in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师预计，企业税率将提高到25%，外国所得税率提议中的约一半将获得通过，他们估计这将使标普500在2022年的收益减少5%。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department is due to release its consumer price index data on Tuesday, which could shed further light on the current inflation wave and whether it is as transitory as the Fed insists.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部将于周二发布消费者价格指数数据，这可能会进一步揭示当前的通胀浪潮，以及它是否像美联储坚称的那样是短暂的。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t see inflation settling back down under 2% where it was pre-pandemic,” Young added. “Even if some of those transitory forces weaken, we will still stay at a higher rate than we were before.”</p><p><blockquote>“杨补充说：”我认为通胀率不会回到大流行前的 2% 以下。“即使其中一些暂时的力量减弱，我们仍将保持比以前更高的速度”。</blockquote></p><p> Other key indicators due this week include retail sales and consumer sentiment, which could illuminate how much the demand boom driven by economic re-engagement has been dampened by the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他关键指标包括零售销售和消费者信心，这可能表明经济重新参与推动的需求繁荣在多大程度上受到了高度传染性的 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株的抑制。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 261.91 points, or 0.76%, to 34,869.63, the S&amp;P 500 gained 10.15 points, or 0.23%, at 4,468.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 9.91 points, or 0.07%, to 15,105.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 261.91 点，或 0.76%，至 34,869.63 点；标普500指数上涨 10.15 点，或 0.23%，至 4,468.73 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 9.91 点，或 0.07%，至 15,105.58 点。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, healthcare suffered the largest percentage loss, while energy, buoyed by rising crude prices was the biggest gainer.</p><p><blockquote>在标普500的11个主要行业中，医疗保健行业的跌幅最大，而受原油价格上涨提振的能源行业涨幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer Inc sank 6.6% and 2.2%, respectively, after experts said COVID booster shots are not widely needed.</p><p><blockquote>在专家表示不广泛需要新冠加强注射后，疫苗制造商 Moderna 和辉瑞公司的股价分别下跌 6.6% 和 2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Coinbase Global Inc announced plans to raise about $1.5 billion through a debt offering aimed at funding product development and potential acquisitions. The cryptocurrency exchanges shares slid 2.2%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币基地全球公司宣布计划通过债务发行筹集约15亿美元，旨在为产品开发和潜在收购提供资金。加密货币交易所股价下跌 2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com Inc dipped 1.2% as rival Freshworks Inc’s regulatory filing indicated that the business engagement and customer engagement software company is aiming for a nearly $9 billion valuation in it U.S. debut.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com Inc 下跌 1.2%，原因是竞争对手 Freshworks Inc 提交的监管文件显示，这家商业参与和客户参与软件公司的目标是在美国首次公开募股时获得近 90 亿美元的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.60-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.02-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.60 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.02比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 71 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下12个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下53个新高和71个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.30 billion shares, compared with the 9.29 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 103.0 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 92.9 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-snaps-losing-streak-with-tax-hikes-inflation-data-on-horizon-idUSL1N2QF2DB\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-snaps-losing-streak-with-tax-hikes-inflation-data-on-horizon-idUSL1N2QF2DB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178276551","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed higher on Monday, ending a five-day losing streak as investors focused on potential corporate tax hikes and upcoming economic data.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced, but the Nasdaq Composite Index ended lower.\nInvestors favored value over growth, with stocks set to benefit most from a resurging economy enjoying the biggest percentage gains.\n“There are probably not a lot of positive surprises coming this month,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “We’re having another period of volatility where I think that rotation could go back to cyclicals and the reopened trade, as the 10-year bond rate slowly grinds higher through the end of the year.”\nMarket participants are focused on the likely passage of U.S. President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion budget package, which is expected to include a proposed corporate tax rate hike to 26.5% from 21%.\nGoldman Sachs analysts see the corporate tax rate increasing to 25% and the passage of about half of a proposed increase to tax rates on foreign income, which they estimate would reduce S&P 500 earnings by 5% in 2022.\nThe Labor Department is due to release its consumer price index data on Tuesday, which could shed further light on the current inflation wave and whether it is as transitory as the Fed insists.\n“I don’t see inflation settling back down under 2% where it was pre-pandemic,” Young added. “Even if some of those transitory forces weaken, we will still stay at a higher rate than we were before.”\nOther key indicators due this week include retail sales and consumer sentiment, which could illuminate how much the demand boom driven by economic re-engagement has been dampened by the highly contagious COVID-19 Delta variant.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 261.91 points, or 0.76%, to 34,869.63, the S&P 500 gained 10.15 points, or 0.23%, at 4,468.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 9.91 points, or 0.07%, to 15,105.58.\nOf the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare suffered the largest percentage loss, while energy, buoyed by rising crude prices was the biggest gainer.\nShares of vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer Inc sank 6.6% and 2.2%, respectively, after experts said COVID booster shots are not widely needed.\nCoinbase Global Inc announced plans to raise about $1.5 billion through a debt offering aimed at funding product development and potential acquisitions. The cryptocurrency exchanges shares slid 2.2%.\nSalesforce.com Inc dipped 1.2% as rival Freshworks Inc’s regulatory filing indicated that the business engagement and customer engagement software company is aiming for a nearly $9 billion valuation in it U.S. debut.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.60-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.02-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 71 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.30 billion shares, compared with the 9.29 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888222325,"gmtCreate":1631500767167,"gmtModify":1631888581775,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ooh","listText":"Ooh","text":"Ooh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888222325","repostId":"2166303094","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888900885,"gmtCreate":1631418244147,"gmtModify":1631888581789,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888900885","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：秋季 IPO 市场以第 10 周 IPO 拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波上市浪潮后，未来一周将有 10 起 IPO 计划筹集超过 30 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>思想作品</b>(TWKS) 计划以 63 亿美元的市值筹集 7 亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入以14%的CAGR增长，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>关于持有</b>(ONON) 计划以 59 亿美元的市值筹集 5.91 亿美元。On是一家使用可持续材料及其专有技术设计的优质运动鞋、服装和配件的全球供应商。该公司已表现出增长和盈利能力，尽管它面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过特殊目的收购公司上市的谈判后，<b>体育雷达集团</b>(SRAD) 计划以 79 亿美元的市值筹集 5.04 亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83个体育项目的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar 实现了盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021 年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS) 计划以 33 亿美元的市值筹集 4 亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着向新州扩张，它能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>终极医疗保健</b>（卫生署）计划以33亿元的市值筹集3.5亿元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售到复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare 未盈利，IPO 后将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>伪岩</b>(FORG) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.48 亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock 无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫生物技术<b>骰子治疗</b>(DICE) 计划以 5.5 亿美元的市值筹集 1.6 亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>生物机器人方案</b>(PRCT) 计划以 11 亿美元的市值筹集 1.27 亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics 严重无利可图，2021 年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学</b>(TYRA) 计划以 5.84 亿美元的市值筹集 1.01 亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的 FGFR 激酶抑制剂。Tyra 的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将在 2022 年年中提交该药物的 IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微型气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>（EZFL）计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。EzFill 表示，它是南佛罗里达市场的主导者，但由于增长迅速，利润极高，因此它是南佛罗里达市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至21年9月9日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今上涨7.7%，而标普500上涨19.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括 Snowflake (SNOW) 和 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 11.0%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.0%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Smoore International 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：秋季 IPO 市场以第 10 周 IPO 拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国 IPO 周即将到来：秋季 IPO 市场以第 10 周 IPO 拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波上市浪潮后，未来一周将有 10 起 IPO 计划筹集超过 30 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>思想作品</b>(TWKS) 计划以 63 亿美元的市值筹集 7 亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入以14%的CAGR增长，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>关于持有</b>(ONON) 计划以 59 亿美元的市值筹集 5.91 亿美元。On是一家使用可持续材料及其专有技术设计的优质运动鞋、服装和配件的全球供应商。该公司已表现出增长和盈利能力，尽管它面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过特殊目的收购公司上市的谈判后，<b>体育雷达集团</b>(SRAD) 计划以 79 亿美元的市值筹集 5.04 亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83个体育项目的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar 实现了盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021 年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS) 计划以 33 亿美元的市值筹集 4 亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着向新州扩张，它能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>终极医疗保健</b>（卫生署）计划以33亿元的市值筹集3.5亿元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售到复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare 未盈利，IPO 后将受到杠杆作用。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>伪岩</b>(FORG) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.48 亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock 无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫生物技术<b>骰子治疗</b>(DICE) 计划以 5.5 亿美元的市值筹集 1.6 亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>生物机器人方案</b>(PRCT) 计划以 11 亿美元的市值筹集 1.27 亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics 严重无利可图，2021 年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学</b>(TYRA) 计划以 5.84 亿美元的市值筹集 1.01 亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的 FGFR 激酶抑制剂。Tyra 的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将在 2022 年年中提交该药物的 IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微型气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>（EZFL）计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。EzFill 表示，它是南佛罗里达市场的主导者，但由于增长迅速，利润极高，因此它是南佛罗里达市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至21年9月9日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今上涨7.7%，而标普500上涨19.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括 Snowflake (SNOW) 和 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 11.0%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.0%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Smoore International 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.","ONON":"On Holding AG","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"DICE":0.9,"DH":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,"FORG":0.9,"ONON":0.9,"SRAD":0.9,"TYRA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881669176,"gmtCreate":1631331719095,"gmtModify":1631888581800,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881669176","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883836676,"gmtCreate":1631231906195,"gmtModify":1631888581811,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883836676","repostId":"2166426123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880275496,"gmtCreate":1631062602215,"gmtModify":1631888581830,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880275496","repostId":"2165350503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817764684,"gmtCreate":1630989954048,"gmtModify":1631888581839,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817764684","repostId":"2165880909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817022031,"gmtCreate":1630892266323,"gmtModify":1631892900931,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817022031","repostId":"1126654067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126654067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630885254,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126654067?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126654067","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be cl","content":"<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于 9 月 6 日星期一劳动节休市，标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了大部分精彩的表现。尽管人们对冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的传播感到担忧，并且对美联储在去年疫情爆发时实施的宽松货币政策最终撤销的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了上涨。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，美国证券交易所，包括洲际交易所（Intercontinental Exchange Inc.）和纳斯达克公司旗下的纽约证券交易所（New York Stock Exchange Inc.）将休市，因此不要关注道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数在 2021 年已创下 54 个收盘历史新高，并有望在周五创下第 55 个收盘历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第 35 个历史新高。周五下午三点左右，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的纪录上涨不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益证券行业贸易组织Sifma也建议劳动节债券市场休市，包括交易10年期国债，在美国8月就业报告弱于预期后，10年期国债收益率约为1.33%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8 月份新增就业岗位 23.5 万个，远低于预期的 70 多万个，但未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所大多数商品期货交易，包括 Nymex 原油和 Comex 黄金，也将于周一停止交易。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者来说还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>可能不会。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但道琼斯市场数据显示，近年来五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一个看涨时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约 2%，平均上涨 1.3%，65% 的时间都创下了上涨纪录。道琼斯指数目前在过去六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间取得连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜纪录。去年，市场在此期间上涨了近 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜势头，在阵亡将士纪念日-劳动节期间迄今已上涨近 8%。过去几年同期上涨了 70% 以上，平均涨幅为 1.7%。2020 年同期，大盘指数上涨了 16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果说劳动节交易有一个真正的趋势，那可能就是 MarketWatch 的史蒂夫-戈尔茨坦（Steve Goldstein）援引雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）的话说，在过去两年中，节后股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差，2018 年，市场在夏季结束后基本上崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这次股市上涨是否会类似地消失，但华尔街越来越认为估值过高，股指将从当前高点回调至少 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场将恢复正常交易，当然，包括伦敦富时 100 指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲 600 指数在内的欧洲证券交易所将于周一开盘，亚洲市场、日经 225 指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数也将开盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于 9 月 6 日星期一劳动节休市，标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了大部分精彩的表现。尽管人们对冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的传播感到担忧，并且对美联储在去年疫情爆发时实施的宽松货币政策最终撤销的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了上涨。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，美国证券交易所，包括洲际交易所（Intercontinental Exchange Inc.）和纳斯达克公司旗下的纽约证券交易所（New York Stock Exchange Inc.）将休市，因此不要关注道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数在 2021 年已创下 54 个收盘历史新高，并有望在周五创下第 55 个收盘历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第 35 个历史新高。周五下午三点左右，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的纪录上涨不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益证券行业贸易组织Sifma也建议劳动节债券市场休市，包括交易10年期国债，在美国8月就业报告弱于预期后，10年期国债收益率约为1.33%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8 月份新增就业岗位 23.5 万个，远低于预期的 70 多万个，但未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所大多数商品期货交易，包括 Nymex 原油和 Comex 黄金，也将于周一停止交易。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者来说还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>可能不会。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但道琼斯市场数据显示，近年来五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一个看涨时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约 2%，平均上涨 1.3%，65% 的时间都创下了上涨纪录。道琼斯指数目前在过去六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间取得连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜纪录。去年，市场在此期间上涨了近 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜势头，在阵亡将士纪念日-劳动节期间迄今已上涨近 8%。过去几年同期上涨了 70% 以上，平均涨幅为 1.7%。2020 年同期，大盘指数上涨了 16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果说劳动节交易有一个真正的趋势，那可能就是 MarketWatch 的史蒂夫-戈尔茨坦（Steve Goldstein）援引雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）的话说，在过去两年中，节后股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差，2018 年，市场在夏季结束后基本上崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这次股市上涨是否会类似地消失，但华尔街越来越认为估值过高，股指将从当前高点回调至少 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场将恢复正常交易，当然，包括伦敦富时 100 指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲 600 指数在内的欧洲证券交易所将于周一开盘，亚洲市场、日经 225 指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数也将开盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ICE":"洲际交易所",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126654067","content_text":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.\nOn Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.\nThe S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.\nSifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.\nHowever, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nTrading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.\nIs there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?\nProbably not.\nBut the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nThe S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nBut if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.\nIt is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.\nMarkets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite 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not buying Lemonade at 60.00","listText":"Regretted not buying Lemonade at 60.00","text":"Regretted not buying Lemonade at 60.00","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181192088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107569599,"gmtCreate":1620522665111,"gmtModify":1634198303779,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like me plz","listText":"Comment and like me plz","text":"Comment and like me plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107569599","repostId":"1106882084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145262045,"gmtCreate":1626226047587,"gmtModify":1633928866052,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145262045","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885662903,"gmtCreate":1631787275002,"gmtModify":1631888581733,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885662903","repostId":"1126607843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126607843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631785252,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126607843?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126607843","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs微软：在纠正的情况下，谁倾向于跌得更惨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 17:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市出现大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>在最近的过去，苹果和微软对股市的大幅下跌做出了不同的反应。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设的修正情况下，微软的下跌潜力低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍……</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美国股市上一次大调整结束以来，纳斯达克指数已上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的平均年总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市出现新的重大调整的可能性更高。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对当前市场的价格水平持谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流动性流入股市创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但这一事实本身就使得市场极其波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个基本的限制。但正是超宽松的货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经勾勒出来。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预期市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观来说，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果 (AAPL) 和微软 (MSFT) 哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定是由两个因素决定的。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，原则上，仅凭它们的动态就能引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：可视化分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这个因素起着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在最近市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为此，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场走势时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据是明确的：<i>在调整期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直较好。在这种情况下，所获得的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司表现出大致相同的回报。因此，在这里我们找不到我们问题的线索……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票价格可以从两个角度来看。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，价格反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下总和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司将来会支付。让我们模拟一下苹果和微软的价格。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了减少模型的主观性，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>.以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。对于最后一年，我使用等于1的Beta。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的苹果股票目标价约为 181 美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>就苹果而言，在构建股息贴现模型时，还需要考虑到公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续目前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释股票的数量将减少到135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的 25% 用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息贴现模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的苹果股票目标价为 69 美元 (-54%)。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于 DCF 的微软股票目标价约为 353 美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的势头将继续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到 72 亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于 DDM 的微软股票目标价为 203 美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>让我们总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我已经在这些公司的案例中观察到类似的结果很长时间了。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长时期，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种情况下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当调整的可能性已经超出形式上时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126607843","content_text":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.\nApple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nIn the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.\n\nvicnt/iStock via Getty Images\nAs an introduction...\nSince the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:\nData by YCharts\nFor a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nIn addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.\nFirst, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:\nSource: Bank of America\nSecond, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is already outlined.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nAnd finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSo, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?\nWhy Apple vs. Microsoft?\nThe decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.\nFirstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSecondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.\nSome Statistics\nTo begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.\nTo do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:\nSource: TradingView, Author\nHere are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:\nSource: Author\nAt first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.\nBut in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...\nFundamentals\nExclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.\nOn the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's future cash flow. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of all potential dividendsthat the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.\nIn order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.\nLet's start with Apple. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nNotes:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).\nI used the current value of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.\n\nHere is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).\nIn the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:\nData by YCharts\nContinuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.\nApple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).\nNow let's take a look at Microsoft.\nHere is the calculation of the WACC:\nSource: Author\nAnd here is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).\nMicrosoft is also actively buying back shares:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).\nLet's summarize:\n\nIt is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nThis suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.\nBut during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.\nBottom line\nAt the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817022031,"gmtCreate":1630892266323,"gmtModify":1631892900931,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817022031","repostId":"1126654067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126654067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630885254,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1126654067?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126654067","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be cl","content":"<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于 9 月 6 日星期一劳动节休市，标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了大部分精彩的表现。尽管人们对冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的传播感到担忧，并且对美联储在去年疫情爆发时实施的宽松货币政策最终撤销的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了上涨。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，美国证券交易所，包括洲际交易所（Intercontinental Exchange Inc.）和纳斯达克公司旗下的纽约证券交易所（New York Stock Exchange Inc.）将休市，因此不要关注道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数在 2021 年已创下 54 个收盘历史新高，并有望在周五创下第 55 个收盘历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第 35 个历史新高。周五下午三点左右，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的纪录上涨不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益证券行业贸易组织Sifma也建议劳动节债券市场休市，包括交易10年期国债，在美国8月就业报告弱于预期后，10年期国债收益率约为1.33%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8 月份新增就业岗位 23.5 万个，远低于预期的 70 多万个，但未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所大多数商品期货交易，包括 Nymex 原油和 Comex 黄金，也将于周一停止交易。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者来说还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>可能不会。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但道琼斯市场数据显示，近年来五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一个看涨时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约 2%，平均上涨 1.3%，65% 的时间都创下了上涨纪录。道琼斯指数目前在过去六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间取得连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜纪录。去年，市场在此期间上涨了近 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜势头，在阵亡将士纪念日-劳动节期间迄今已上涨近 8%。过去几年同期上涨了 70% 以上，平均涨幅为 1.7%。2020 年同期，大盘指数上涨了 16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果说劳动节交易有一个真正的趋势，那可能就是 MarketWatch 的史蒂夫-戈尔茨坦（Steve Goldstein）援引雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）的话说，在过去两年中，节后股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差，2018 年，市场在夏季结束后基本上崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这次股市上涨是否会类似地消失，但华尔街越来越认为估值过高，股指将从当前高点回调至少 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场将恢复正常交易，当然，包括伦敦富时 100 指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲 600 指数在内的欧洲证券交易所将于周一开盘，亚洲市场、日经 225 指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数也将开盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>美国股市在劳动节开市吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于 9 月 6 日星期一劳动节休市，标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了大部分精彩的表现。尽管人们对冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的传播感到担忧，并且对美联储在去年疫情爆发时实施的宽松货币政策最终撤销的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了上涨。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，美国证券交易所，包括洲际交易所（Intercontinental Exchange Inc.）和纳斯达克公司旗下的纽约证券交易所（New York Stock Exchange Inc.）将休市，因此不要关注道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何波动。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500指数在 2021 年已创下 54 个收盘历史新高，并有望在周五创下第 55 个收盘历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第 35 个历史新高。周五下午三点左右，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的纪录上涨不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>固定收益证券行业贸易组织Sifma也建议劳动节债券市场休市，包括交易10年期国债，在美国8月就业报告弱于预期后，10年期国债收益率约为1.33%。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8 月份新增就业岗位 23.5 万个，远低于预期的 70 多万个，但未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月 1200 亿美元国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所大多数商品期货交易，包括 Nymex 原油和 Comex 黄金，也将于周一停止交易。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者来说还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>可能不会。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但道琼斯市场数据显示，近年来五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一个看涨时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约 2%，平均上涨 1.3%，65% 的时间都创下了上涨纪录。道琼斯指数目前在过去六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间取得连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜纪录。去年，市场在此期间上涨了近 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜势头，在阵亡将士纪念日-劳动节期间迄今已上涨近 8%。过去几年同期上涨了 70% 以上，平均涨幅为 1.7%。2020 年同期，大盘指数上涨了 16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果说劳动节交易有一个真正的趋势，那可能就是 MarketWatch 的史蒂夫-戈尔茨坦（Steve Goldstein）援引雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）策略师塔维斯-麦考特（Tavis McCourt）的话说，在过去两年中，节后股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差，2018 年，市场在夏季结束后基本上崩溃了。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这次股市上涨是否会类似地消失，但华尔街越来越认为估值过高，股指将从当前高点回调至少 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场将恢复正常交易，当然，包括伦敦富时 100 指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲 600 指数在内的欧洲证券交易所将于周一开盘，亚洲市场、日经 225 指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数也将开盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ICE":"洲际交易所",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126654067","content_text":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.\nOn Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.\nThe S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.\nSifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.\nHowever, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nTrading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.\nIs there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?\nProbably not.\nBut the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nThe S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nBut if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.\nIt is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.\nMarkets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ICE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811378039,"gmtCreate":1630292878921,"gmtModify":1704957946808,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811378039","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178491309,"gmtCreate":1626830567801,"gmtModify":1633770610173,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178491309","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155452537,"gmtCreate":1625450408929,"gmtModify":1633940585752,"author":{"id":"3575977247479835","authorId":"3575977247479835","name":"A2Hong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575977247479835","idStr":"3575977247479835"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155452537","repostId":"1138258779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}