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幻想的仙人

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幻想的仙人

2021-05-13

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$等

幻想的仙人

2021-04-16

$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$will this stock be profitable eventually ?

幻想的仙人

2021-10-03

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$still a stock for the future ?

幻想的仙人

2021-04-15

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$let's roll

幻想的仙人

2021-09-26

$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$27th Sept

幻想的仙人

2021-09-18

$Apple(AAPL)$will it drop further ?

幻想的仙人

2021-09-16

$Mogo Finance Technology Inc.(MOGO)$time to buy ?

幻想的仙人

2021-06-02

Awesome

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幻想的仙人

2021-10-18

$Microsoft(MSFT)$strong since the star of the year

幻想的仙人

2021-09-15

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$[喷血]

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10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Xiaomi's stumble allows Apple to reclaim No.2 spot in smartphones<blockquote>小米的失败让苹果重新夺回了智能手机第二的位置</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107838719","media":"CNN Business","summary":"Hong Kong  - Xiaomi stumbled in the third quarter as it grappled with fallout from the global chip shortage and fiercer competition.The Chinese company, which only recently became the world's second-biggest smartphone maker, fell back to third place behindApplein the three months ended September, according to Counterpoint Research and Canalys.Posting earnings on Tuesday, Xiaomi said that its smartphone business had been severely affected by the ongoing shortage of semiconductors, which it expect","content":"<p><b>Hong Kong (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>-&nbsp;Xiaomi stumbled in the third quarter as it grappled with fallout from the&nbsp;global chip shortage&nbsp;and fiercer competition.</p><p><blockquote><b>香港（CNN Business）</b>-小米在第三季度遭遇挫折，因为它正在努力应对全球芯片短缺和竞争加剧的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese company, which only&nbsp;recently became&nbsp;the world's second-biggest smartphone maker, fell back to third place behindApple(AAPL)in the three months ended September, according to Counterpoint Research and Canalys.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research和Canalys的数据，这家最近才成为全球第二大智能手机制造商的中国公司在截至9月份的三个月内跌至第三位，落后于苹果(AAPL)。</blockquote></p><p> Posting earnings on Tuesday, Xiaomi said that its smartphone business had been severely affected by the ongoing shortage of semiconductors, which it expects to continue through the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>小米周二发布财报时表示，其智能手机业务受到持续半导体短缺的严重影响，预计这种情况将持续到明年上半年。</blockquote></p><p> \"This year, there is a very special background, and that is there is a shortage of components globally,\" Wang Xiang, Xiaomi's president, said on an earnings call. \"The shortage is a big challenge to us.\"</p><p><blockquote>“今年，有一个非常特殊的背景，那就是全球零部件短缺，”小米总裁王翔在财报看涨期权上表示。“短缺对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。”</blockquote></p><p> The company logged 43.9 million global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2021, down about 6% compared with the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2021年第三季度全球智能手机出货量为4390万部，较去年同期下降约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi has called smartphones \"the cornerstone\" of its business, which includes other connected devices such as home appliances. Lately, the company&nbsp;has also announced a&nbsp;push into electric cars, with&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to mass produce its first vehicle in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>小米称智能手机是其业务的“基石”，其中包括家电等其他联网设备。最近，该公司还宣布进军电动汽车领域，计划于2024年上半年量产首款汽车。</blockquote></p><p> It excited investors this summer after leapfrogging Apple to become the world's second best-selling manufacturer. The Beijing-based company's shipments had soared in the three months ended June, trailing only those of&nbsp;Samsung(SSNLF).</p><p><blockquote>今年夏天，它超越苹果成为全球第二大畅销制造商，令投资者兴奋不已。这家总部位于北京的公司在截至6月份的三个月内出货量猛增，仅次于三星(SSNLF)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Setbacks on supply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应受挫</b></blockquote></p><p> Since then, however, Xiaomi has been hit hard by supply chain woes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自那以后，小米受到了供应链困境的沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Tarun Pathak, a research director at Counterpoint, said that while component shortages had affected virtually every vendor, Xiaomi had to contend with bigger headaches due to its extensive lineup.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint研究总监塔伦·帕塔克(Tarun Pathak)表示，虽然零部件短缺几乎影响了所有供应商，但由于其产品阵容广泛，小米不得不应对更大的难题。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, the company offered more than 50 different smartphone models, compared to about 14 that Apple had on the market, he estimated.</p><p><blockquote>他估计，在最近一个季度，该公司提供了50多种不同的智能手机型号，而苹果在市场上的智能手机型号约为14种。</blockquote></p><p> That adds complexity and \"becomes challenging,\" said Pathak. \"Because you have to deal with a range of components.\"</p><p><blockquote>帕塔克说，这增加了复杂性并“变得具有挑战性”。“因为你必须处理一系列组件。”</blockquote></p><p> A relative lack of exposure to the problem helped Apple, in part, reclaim the second spot in the race in the third quarter, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，相对较少暴露这个问题在一定程度上帮助苹果在第三季度重新获得了第二名。</blockquote></p><p> The US giant also benefited from strong&nbsp;iPhone 13&nbsp;sales, according to Canalys Research. In a recent&nbsp;report, the firm estimated that Apple had nabbed 15% of global shipments, just one percent more than Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>根据Canalys Research的数据，这家美国巨头还受益于iPhone 13的强劲销售。在最近的一份报告中，该公司估计苹果已经占据了全球出货量的15%，仅比小米多1%。</blockquote></p><p> But don't count Xiaomi out, according to Pathak.</p><p><blockquote>但帕塔克表示，不要将小米排除在外。</blockquote></p><p> He said the firm could well reclaim its runner-up position, particularly as it usually performs strongly in the first half of the year, with upcoming events such as Chinese New Year.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，该公司很可能会夺回亚军的位置，特别是因为该公司通常在今年上半年表现强劲，而且即将举办农历新年等活动。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5619ce92d6d847972469476ca61fa5\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Customers buying phones at a Xiaomi store in Yantai, Shandong province, China, in September.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>9月，顾客在中国山东省烟台市的一家小米专卖店购买手机。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi's ultimate goal — of eventually getting to number one — isn't out of the question either, according to Pathak.</p><p><blockquote>帕塔克表示，小米的最终目标——最终成为第一——也不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> He said the company would need to retain its lead in two of its most important markets, China and India, while working to carve out a greater presence in places such as the United States.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，该公司需要保持在中国和印度这两个最重要市场的领先地位，同时努力在美国等地扩大业务。</blockquote></p><p> \"If they [become] number one, it can't be just because of these two countries,\" Pathak said. \"The US has the number three [smartphone] market in the world, which is largely missing from Xiaomi's portfolio.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果他们[成为]第一，那不可能仅仅是因为这两个国家，”帕塔克说。“美国拥有世界第三大[智能手机]市场，而小米的产品组合中基本上没有这一市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi posted overall revenue of 78.1 billion yuan ($12.2 billion) in the third quarter. That represented an 8% increase compared to the same time last year, but was slightly less than analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为781亿元人民币（122亿美元）。这比去年同期增长了8%，但略低于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Net profit climbed 25% to nearly 5.2 billion yuan ($814 million) during that period, slightly higher than analyst projections.</p><p><blockquote>同期净利润增长25%，达到近52亿元人民币（8.14亿美元），略高于分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomi's stumble allows Apple to reclaim No.2 spot in smartphones<blockquote>小米的失败让苹果重新夺回了智能手机第二的位置</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomi's stumble allows Apple to reclaim No.2 spot in smartphones<blockquote>小米的失败让苹果重新夺回了智能手机第二的位置</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-24 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Hong Kong (CNN Business)&nbsp;</b>-&nbsp;Xiaomi stumbled in the third quarter as it grappled with fallout from the&nbsp;global chip shortage&nbsp;and fiercer competition.</p><p><blockquote><b>香港（CNN Business）</b>-小米在第三季度遭遇挫折，因为它正在努力应对全球芯片短缺和竞争加剧的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Chinese company, which only&nbsp;recently became&nbsp;the world's second-biggest smartphone maker, fell back to third place behindApple(AAPL)in the three months ended September, according to Counterpoint Research and Canalys.</p><p><blockquote>根据Counterpoint Research和Canalys的数据，这家最近才成为全球第二大智能手机制造商的中国公司在截至9月份的三个月内跌至第三位，落后于苹果(AAPL)。</blockquote></p><p> Posting earnings on Tuesday, Xiaomi said that its smartphone business had been severely affected by the ongoing shortage of semiconductors, which it expects to continue through the first half of next year.</p><p><blockquote>小米周二发布财报时表示，其智能手机业务受到持续半导体短缺的严重影响，预计这种情况将持续到明年上半年。</blockquote></p><p> \"This year, there is a very special background, and that is there is a shortage of components globally,\" Wang Xiang, Xiaomi's president, said on an earnings call. \"The shortage is a big challenge to us.\"</p><p><blockquote>“今年，有一个非常特殊的背景，那就是全球零部件短缺，”小米总裁王翔在财报看涨期权上表示。“短缺对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。”</blockquote></p><p> The company logged 43.9 million global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2021, down about 6% compared with the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2021年第三季度全球智能手机出货量为4390万部，较去年同期下降约6%。</blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi has called smartphones \"the cornerstone\" of its business, which includes other connected devices such as home appliances. Lately, the company&nbsp;has also announced a&nbsp;push into electric cars, with&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to mass produce its first vehicle in the first half of 2024.</p><p><blockquote>小米称智能手机是其业务的“基石”，其中包括家电等其他联网设备。最近，该公司还宣布进军电动汽车领域，计划于2024年上半年量产首款汽车。</blockquote></p><p> It excited investors this summer after leapfrogging Apple to become the world's second best-selling manufacturer. The Beijing-based company's shipments had soared in the three months ended June, trailing only those of&nbsp;Samsung(SSNLF).</p><p><blockquote>今年夏天，它超越苹果成为全球第二大畅销制造商，令投资者兴奋不已。这家总部位于北京的公司在截至6月份的三个月内出货量猛增，仅次于三星(SSNLF)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Setbacks on supply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应受挫</b></blockquote></p><p> Since then, however, Xiaomi has been hit hard by supply chain woes.</p><p><blockquote>然而，自那以后，小米受到了供应链困境的沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p> Tarun Pathak, a research director at Counterpoint, said that while component shortages had affected virtually every vendor, Xiaomi had to contend with bigger headaches due to its extensive lineup.</p><p><blockquote>Counterpoint研究总监塔伦·帕塔克(Tarun Pathak)表示，虽然零部件短缺几乎影响了所有供应商，但由于其产品阵容广泛，小米不得不应对更大的难题。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, the company offered more than 50 different smartphone models, compared to about 14 that Apple had on the market, he estimated.</p><p><blockquote>他估计，在最近一个季度，该公司提供了50多种不同的智能手机型号，而苹果在市场上的智能手机型号约为14种。</blockquote></p><p> That adds complexity and \"becomes challenging,\" said Pathak. \"Because you have to deal with a range of components.\"</p><p><blockquote>帕塔克说，这增加了复杂性并“变得具有挑战性”。“因为你必须处理一系列组件。”</blockquote></p><p> A relative lack of exposure to the problem helped Apple, in part, reclaim the second spot in the race in the third quarter, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，相对较少暴露这个问题在一定程度上帮助苹果在第三季度重新获得了第二名。</blockquote></p><p> The US giant also benefited from strong&nbsp;iPhone 13&nbsp;sales, according to Canalys Research. In a recent&nbsp;report, the firm estimated that Apple had nabbed 15% of global shipments, just one percent more than Xiaomi.</p><p><blockquote>根据Canalys Research的数据，这家美国巨头还受益于iPhone 13的强劲销售。在最近的一份报告中，该公司估计苹果已经占据了全球出货量的15%，仅比小米多1%。</blockquote></p><p> But don't count Xiaomi out, according to Pathak.</p><p><blockquote>但帕塔克表示，不要将小米排除在外。</blockquote></p><p> He said the firm could well reclaim its runner-up position, particularly as it usually performs strongly in the first half of the year, with upcoming events such as Chinese New Year.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，该公司很可能会夺回亚军的位置，特别是因为该公司通常在今年上半年表现强劲，而且即将举办农历新年等活动。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5619ce92d6d847972469476ca61fa5\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Customers buying phones at a Xiaomi store in Yantai, Shandong province, China, in September.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>9月，顾客在中国山东省烟台市的一家小米专卖店购买手机。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi's ultimate goal — of eventually getting to number one — isn't out of the question either, according to Pathak.</p><p><blockquote>帕塔克表示，小米的最终目标——最终成为第一——也不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> He said the company would need to retain its lead in two of its most important markets, China and India, while working to carve out a greater presence in places such as the United States.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，该公司需要保持在中国和印度这两个最重要市场的领先地位，同时努力在美国等地扩大业务。</blockquote></p><p> \"If they [become] number one, it can't be just because of these two countries,\" Pathak said. \"The US has the number three [smartphone] market in the world, which is largely missing from Xiaomi's portfolio.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果他们[成为]第一，那不可能仅仅是因为这两个国家，”帕塔克说。“美国拥有世界第三大[智能手机]市场，而小米的产品组合中基本上没有这一市场。”</blockquote></p><p> Xiaomi posted overall revenue of 78.1 billion yuan ($12.2 billion) in the third quarter. That represented an 8% increase compared to the same time last year, but was slightly less than analysts were expecting.</p><p><blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为781亿元人民币（122亿美元）。这比去年同期增长了8%，但略低于分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Net profit climbed 25% to nearly 5.2 billion yuan ($814 million) during that period, slightly higher than analyst projections.</p><p><blockquote>同期净利润增长25%，达到近52亿元人民币（8.14亿美元），略高于分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/23/tech/xiaomi-smartphones-earnings-apple/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/23/tech/xiaomi-smartphones-earnings-apple/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107838719","content_text":"Hong Kong (CNN Business) - Xiaomi stumbled in the third quarter as it grappled with fallout from the global chip shortage and fiercer competition.\nThe Chinese company, which only recently became the world's second-biggest smartphone maker, fell back to third place behindApple(AAPL)in the three months ended September, according to Counterpoint Research and Canalys.\nPosting earnings on Tuesday, Xiaomi said that its smartphone business had been severely affected by the ongoing shortage of semiconductors, which it expects to continue through the first half of next year.\n\"This year, there is a very special background, and that is there is a shortage of components globally,\" Wang Xiang, Xiaomi's president, said on an earnings call. \"The shortage is a big challenge to us.\"\nThe company logged 43.9 million global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2021, down about 6% compared with the same period last year.\nXiaomi has called smartphones \"the cornerstone\" of its business, which includes other connected devices such as home appliances. Lately, the company has also announced a push into electric cars, with plans to mass produce its first vehicle in the first half of 2024.\nIt excited investors this summer after leapfrogging Apple to become the world's second best-selling manufacturer. The Beijing-based company's shipments had soared in the three months ended June, trailing only those of Samsung(SSNLF).\nSetbacks on supply\nSince then, however, Xiaomi has been hit hard by supply chain woes.\nTarun Pathak, a research director at Counterpoint, said that while component shortages had affected virtually every vendor, Xiaomi had to contend with bigger headaches due to its extensive lineup.\nIn the most recent quarter, the company offered more than 50 different smartphone models, compared to about 14 that Apple had on the market, he estimated.\nThat adds complexity and \"becomes challenging,\" said Pathak. \"Because you have to deal with a range of components.\"\nA relative lack of exposure to the problem helped Apple, in part, reclaim the second spot in the race in the third quarter, he added.\nThe US giant also benefited from strong iPhone 13 sales, according to Canalys Research. In a recent report, the firm estimated that Apple had nabbed 15% of global shipments, just one percent more than Xiaomi.\nBut don't count Xiaomi out, according to Pathak.\nHe said the firm could well reclaim its runner-up position, particularly as it usually performs strongly in the first half of the year, with upcoming events such as Chinese New Year.\nCustomers buying phones at a Xiaomi store in Yantai, Shandong province, China, in September.\nXiaomi's ultimate goal — of eventually getting to number one — isn't out of the question either, according to Pathak.\nHe said the company would need to retain its lead in two of its most important markets, China and India, while working to carve out a greater presence in places such as the United States.\n\"If they [become] number one, it can't be just because of these two countries,\" Pathak said. \"The US has the number three [smartphone] market in the world, which is largely missing from Xiaomi's portfolio.\"\nXiaomi posted overall revenue of 78.1 billion yuan ($12.2 billion) in the third quarter. That represented an 8% increase compared to the same time last year, but was slightly less than analysts were expecting.\nNet profit climbed 25% to nearly 5.2 billion yuan ($814 million) during that period, slightly higher than analyst projections.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850000418,"gmtCreate":1634529679330,"gmtModify":1634529679330,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>strong since the star of the year","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>strong since the star 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!!!","listText":"Rise !!!","text":"Rise !!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/921e4d7dfce2ff3422ab59bd4f5872b9","width":"1080","height":"2861"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117460768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118020136,"gmtCreate":1622708617125,"gmtModify":1634098926867,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overprice but long term contender in the market","listText":"Overprice but long term contender in the market","text":"Overprice but long term contender in the market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118020136","repostId":"1160407593","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160407593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622706069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160407593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160407593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.Apple  bulls have to be frus","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>苹果股票是否被高估？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Despite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.</li>  <li>I believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.</li>  <li>Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;significantly elevated&nbsp;to historical levels.</li>  <li>I have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff81a333ee2ce5596e83df474ea7f56\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"511\"><span>Photo by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管第二季度盈利预期令人震惊，但苹果股价却出现逆转，表现逊于大盘。</li><li>我认为华尔街对苹果2022财年的预期过高，可能是近期疲软的原因之一。</li><li>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍显着高于历史水平。</li><li>我严重怀疑iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售能否在明年继续目前的火爆销售速度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：PeskyMonkey/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its&nbsp;Q1 holiday quarter&nbsp;and&nbsp;Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The&nbsp;thesis from my last article&nbsp;on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）的多头不得不感到沮丧。尽管第一季度假期季度和第二季度1月至3月季度的盈利均大幅超出预期，但股价却毫无进展。我上一篇关于苹果的文章中的论点是，COVID-19封锁、政府施舍和5G的推出都最终将苹果的需求拉入了2021财年，这得到了New Street分析师的支持，他们现在也做出了同样的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e41696d20058f8ca97f59715bca52b8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> New Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modeling<i>iPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.</i>Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been&nbsp;tracking iPhone sales in China&nbsp;and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.</p><p><blockquote>新街没有预言天要塌下来，我也没有。他们只是在做模特<i>iPhone出货量在1.8亿至2亿部之间，而市场普遍预期为2.34亿部。</i>这听起来像是一种极端的观点吗？我不这么认为，特别是因为SA撰稿人Paulo Santos一直在跟踪iPhone在中国的销售情况，并看到从白热化的开局到今年年初明显放缓。我认为iPad和Mac的类似放缓还需要几个季度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL目前的估值是多少？有意义吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> From the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.</p><p><blockquote>从我最近两篇文章收到的评论来看，多头一定认为我讨厌苹果，别有用心。这与事实相去甚远。我过去曾多次直接持有苹果，并且仍然通过我持有的Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)持有该公司的大量股份。因此，我无论如何都不反对它，我只是按照我所看到的来称呼它——而且我认为估值非常过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242125db79bcaf3f8697bf4466c3f0c8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain&nbsp;<b>significantly elevated</b>- 50% or more - from their historic norms.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的价格/收益、价格/销售额和价格/自由现金流仍然保持不变<b>显著升高</b>-50%或更多-从他们的历史规范。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2397347f029ba2ba682fa1398109d5e7\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个关键问题，因为苹果的预期收入增长和盈利预期已经很低，并且预测增长微乎其微。按照这些速度，几乎所有的盈利增长都将来自股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> But these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.</p><p><blockquote>但这些前瞻性预测假设苹果将在2022财年再次重复创纪录的一年。我认为这种情况发生的可能性很小。相反，我预计2014财年至2016财年的情况类似，营业利润从2014财年至2015财年大幅增长，然后在2016财年适度下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果2021财年可能会在很长一段时间内达到销售和盈利峰值</b></blockquote></p><p> Since 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.</p><p><blockquote>自2016年以来，苹果推出了许多成功的新产品：苹果手表、AirPods和苹果电视，以及许多新版本的Mac、iPhone和iPad，以及令人印象深刻的服务增长。</blockquote></p><p> Yet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管取得了所有这些成功，苹果的营业收入在2015年达到顶峰，直到在过去12个月内打破了之前的峰值。从2015年到2020年，在股票回购和TCJA企业所得税削减的大力帮助下，苹果的每股收益增长了约7%。（如果没有此次减税，2020年每股收益将约为2.88美元，而不是3.28美元，这意味着每股收益增长率约为4.5%。）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a878730fc1ed62d2dc0166d9aa16c21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.</p><p><blockquote>最终，我相信苹果最近火爆的销售表现不会重演，也不应该像华尔街分析师所模拟的那样被视为新的运行率。我认为iPad的销量就是一个例证。在过去的几年里，销量一直保持稳定，直到去年爆炸式增长57%，并在今年年初继续保持同样的势头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c5c505d2f2c147fc7ee546576a5945\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"582\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Did iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>iPads突然变得如此受欢迎吗？或者只是有很多在家工作的父母想给他们的孩子买iPads？我选后者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion - Apple is still a Sell</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论——苹果仍值得卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Wall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师不失时机地提高了明年的盈利预期，我认为这主要是对当前业绩的推断。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Admittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，我不像大多数人那样看好5G超级周期。我相信创新者和早期采用者会急于升级，但大多数大众市场将保持正常的升级节奏，并继续延长。我认为iPhone是自身成功的受害者——最近的iPhones都很好，升级到更新的手机不太引人注目，因为4G对大多数人来说“足够好”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a5047edb2490f12fb4259f905c7fbac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Apple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果2019年的收入为2.97美元。他们今年前两个季度的收入已经为3.08美元，目前预计整个财年的收入为5.16美元。即使服务业有所增长，我也不认为他们在下一财年会重复这种表现，并预计每股收益将接近4-4.50美元，远低于目前预期的5.30美元。这将使市盈率回到30以上，并出现负增长率。如果发生这种情况，股价可能会重新测试100美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.</p><p><blockquote>苹果对我来说仍然是个卖点。这是一家伟大的公司，但定价太高了。估值总是很重要的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432646-apple-stock-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160407593","content_text":"Summary\n\nDespite crushing Q2 earnings estimates, Apple shares have gone in reverse and are underperforming the broader market.\nI believe Wall Street expectations for Apple's FY2022 are unreasonably high and likely contributing to the recent weakness.\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated to historical levels.\nI have serious doubt that iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales can continue the current hot sales pace over the next year.\n\nPhoto by PeskyMonkey/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nApple (AAPL) bulls have to be frustrated. Despite massive earnings beats in both its Q1 holiday quarter and Q2 January-March quarter, the shares have gone no where. The thesis from my last article on Apple, that COVID-19 lockdowns, government handouts, and the launch of 5G all culminated to pull demand into Apple's FY21 year,gained a supporter from analysts at New Street, who are now predicting the same.\n\nNew Street isn't predicting that the sky is falling, and neither am I. They are just modelingiPhone shipments in the 180M-200M range versus the 234M consensus.Does this sound like an extreme view? I don't think it is, especially since SA Contributor Paulo Santos has been tracking iPhone sales in China and has seen a significant slowdown from the white-hot start to the beginning of this year. I think similar slowdowns for iPad and Mac are a few quarters away.\nWhat is AAPL's current valuation? Does it make sense?\nFrom the comments I've received on my last two articles, bulls must think I hate Apple and have an axe to grind. This could not be further from the truth. I've owned Apple outright many times in the past, and still own a significant stake in it through my Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings. So I'm not rooting against it by any stretch, I'm just calling it like I see it - and I see the valuation as very stretched.\nData by YCharts\nApple's Price/Earnings, Price/Sales, and Price/Free Cash flow still remain significantly elevated- 50% or more - from their historic norms.\n\nThis is a key issue because the forward revenue growth and earnings estimates for Apple are already low and predict minimal growth. At these rates, nearly all of the earnings growth would come from the share repurchases.\nBut these forward estimates assume Apple will repeat the record year they are having again in FY2022. I think the odds of that happening are slim. Instead, I expect a similar situation of what happened between FY2014-FY2016, where operating earnings increased significantly from FY2014 to FY2015, then declined moderately in FY2016.\nApple's FY21 could be peak sales and earnings for a long time\nSince 2016, Apple has introduced a lot of successful new products: the Apple Watch, AirPods, and Apple TV, to go along with many new versions of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, along with impressive growth in Services.\nYet with all of that success, Apple's Operating Income peaked in 2015 until shattering the prior peak over the last 12 months. From 2015-2020, Apple was able to grow EPS roughly 7%, with significant help from share repurchases and the TCJA corporate income tax cut. (Without this tax cut, 2020 EPS would have been ~$2.88 rather than $3.28, implying an EPS growth rate of around 4.5%.)\n\nUltimately, I believe Apple's recent torrid sales performance will not be repeated and should not be considered a new run rate like Wall Street analysts are modeling. I look at iPad sales as an illustration of this. For the last several years, volumes had been steady until exploding 57% last year and continuing the same strength early this year.\n\nDid iPads suddenly become so much more popular? Or were there just a lot of parents working from home that wanted iPads for their kids? I'm going with the latter.\nConclusion - Apple is still a Sell\nWall St. analysts wasted no time increasing earnings expectations for next year based on what I believe is mostly an extrapolation of the current results.\nAdmittedly, I'm less bullish on the 5G Supercycle than most. I believe that the innovators and early adopters will rush to upgrade, but most of the mass market will remain on the normal upgrade cadence, which continues to lengthen. I think the iPhone is a victim of its own success - that the recent iPhones are all so good, upgrading to newer phones is less compelling, and because 4G is \"good enough\" for most people.\n\nApple earned $2.97 in 2019. They've already earned $3.08 in the first two quarters of this year and current estimates are $5.16 for the full fiscal. Even with the growth in Services, I just do not see them repeating this performance next fiscal year, and expect earnings closer to the $4-4.50/share range, far short of the $5.30 that's currently expected. That would put Price/Earnings back above 30 with a negative growth rate. If this happens, shares could retest the $100 level.\nApple is still a sell here for me. It's a great company that's simply priced too richly. Valuation always matters.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118062298,"gmtCreate":1622708430414,"gmtModify":1631885373478,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>its slowly climbing up. Watch it !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>its slowly climbing up. Watch it !","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$its slowly climbing up. Watch it 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more...","listText":"Adding more...","text":"Adding more...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6228dcb101cf4490579f9a429f03d8d1","width":"1080","height":"2774"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119476532","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110048455,"gmtCreate":1622419043277,"gmtModify":1634101740227,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A gem","listText":"A gem","text":"A gem","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58308088884b6c68a9441caa4e0f3d30","width":"1080","height":"2861"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110048455","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131659986,"gmtCreate":1621857828645,"gmtModify":1634186059742,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's time to pay a close attention to this","listText":"It's time to pay a close attention to this","text":"It's time to pay a close attention to 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Inc.(COIN)$等","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3bc85cc258f6eb6bec8659fa55aa349","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191709257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374275272,"gmtCreate":1619451975296,"gmtModify":1634273330816,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576021805916546","idStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Carry on.....","listText":"Carry on.....","text":"Carry 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Inc.(COIN)$等","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3bc85cc258f6eb6bec8659fa55aa349","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191709257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370288797,"gmtCreate":1618586799319,"gmtModify":1631888467669,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576021805916546","authorIdStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$</a>will this stock be profitable eventually ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APHA\">$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$</a>will this stock be profitable eventually ?","text":"$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$will this stock be profitable eventually ?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f46117c9089f2663b743857a981569d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370288797","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":867673023,"gmtCreate":1633263473127,"gmtModify":1633270445652,"author":{"id":"3576021805916546","authorId":"3576021805916546","name":"幻想的仙人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a107a9d65401870a74fa2225f1d9697","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576021805916546","authorIdStr":"3576021805916546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>still a stock for the future ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>still a 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