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2021-08-23

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Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>

2021-08-21

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2021-08-19

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2021-07-31

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2021-08-16

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2021-07-27

Not chinese tech stocks

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2021-07-10

Definitely undervalued

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2021-08-18

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2021-07-30

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2021-07-25

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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835820863","repostId":"1192946234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192946234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629704548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192946234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192946234","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent ","content":"<p>When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储周五取消杰克逊霍尔研讨会的亲自计划时，它发出了投资者应该注意的信号。</blockquote></p><p> 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The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is&nbsp;also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.&nbsp; “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue&nbsp;ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases&nbsp;sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储周五取消杰克逊霍尔研讨会的亲自计划时，它发出了投资者应该注意的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is&nbsp;also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.&nbsp; “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue&nbsp;ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases&nbsp;sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192946234","content_text":"When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.\n“Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”\nThe Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.\nThe Fed’s decision is also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.\n\n“As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.  “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.\nThe shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.\nAt the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.\nInvestors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.\nIt is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.\nIt’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835867049,"gmtCreate":1629704753881,"gmtModify":1633683062472,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835867049","repostId":"1113577058","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113577058","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629704492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113577058?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 15:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Microsoft's Office Price Increase Means for Investors<blockquote>微软写字楼价格上涨对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113577058","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"Microsoft is raising prices for business and enterprise customers.The price increase should add revenue without causing customer churn.The biggest benefit could be to Microsoft's bottom line.$Microsoft$  announced the first price increase for its Microsoft 365 and Office 365 subscriptions since the subscription offering was first introduced more than a decade ago. In its announcement, Microsoft pointed out all the additional value it's added to the software suite over the last 10 years, justifyi","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft is raising prices for business and enterprise customers.</li>  <li>The price increase should add revenue without causing customer churn.</li>  <li>The biggest benefit could be to Microsoft's bottom line.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软正在提高商业和企业客户的价格。</li><li>价格上涨应该会增加收入，而不会导致客户流失。</li><li>最大的好处可能是微软的利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> </b>(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MSFT)&nbsp;announced the first price increase for its Microsoft 365 and Office 365 subscriptions since the subscription offering was first introduced more than a decade ago. In its announcement, Microsoft pointed out all the additional value it's added to the software suite over the last 10 years, justifying its price increase. Indeed, new services such as Microsoft Teams have become invaluable for many workplaces in the work-from-home era.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a></b>（纳斯达克：MSFT）宣布自十多年前首次推出订阅服务以来，其微软365和Office 365订阅的首次提价。在其公告中，微软指出了过去10年来它为软件套件增加的所有额外价值，证明了其价格上涨的合理性。事实上，在在家工作的时代，微软团队等新服务对于许多工作场所来说已经变得非常宝贵。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft's decision to raise its pricing should show up on both the top and bottom lines. Here's what investors can expect.</p><p><blockquote>微软提高定价的决定应该会体现在营收和利润上。以下是投资者可以期待的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What exactly is changing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底是什么在改变？</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is specifically changing the commercial pricing for Microsoft 365 and Office 365. Consumer pricing isn't changing at all, so if you subscribe to the service personally, you won't see any change in your monthly or annual bill from Microsoft. The new commercial pricing won't go into effect until March 1, 2022.</p><p><blockquote>微软正在专门改变微软365和Office 365的商业定价。消费者定价根本没有变化，因此如果您亲自订阅该服务，您不会看到微软的月度或年度账单有任何变化。新的商业定价要到2022年3月1日才会生效。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th><b>Service Tier</b></p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th><b>服务层</b></th></tr></thead></table></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Current Monthly Price Per User</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>当前每个用户的月价格</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Monthly Price Per User 3/1/2022</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>每个用户的每月价格3/1/2022</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Percent Increase</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>百分比增加</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 Business Basic</p><p><blockquote><tbody><tr><td>微软365商业基础</td></tr></tbody></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$5</p><p><blockquote><td>$5</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$6</p><p><blockquote><td>$6</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 Business Premium</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软365商务高级版</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$20</p><p><blockquote><td>$20</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$22</p><p><blockquote><td>$22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E1</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E1</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$8</p><p><blockquote><td>$8</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$10</p><p><blockquote><td>$10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25%</p><p><blockquote><td>25%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E3</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E3</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$20</p><p><blockquote><td>$20</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$23</p><p><blockquote><td>$23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15%</p><p><blockquote><td>15%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E5</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E5</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$35</p><p><blockquote><td>$35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$38</p><p><blockquote><td>$38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 E3</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软365 E3</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$32</p><p><blockquote><td>$32</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$36</p><p><blockquote><td>$36</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> DATA SOURCE: MICROSOFT.</p><p><blockquote>数据来源：微软。</blockquote></p><p> The price increases will affect the 300 million commercial Office 365 and Microsoft 365 paid seats. But they won't all see the price increase at once. Microsoft locks in long-term contracts with businesses, so the full impact probably won't show up until well into fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨将影响3亿个商业Office 365和微软365付费座位。但他们不会一下子都看到价格上涨。微软与企业签订了长期合同，因此全面影响可能要到2023财年才会显现出来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What kind of impact can investors expect?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者可以期待什么样的影响？</b></blockquote></p><p> When the price increase is fully rolled out, the 300 million existing subscribers will be paying at least $1 more per month, but $2 or $3 in most cases. Also consider that the price increases for the lower tiers of service are more substantial (on a percentage basis) than the higher tiers. That could push more businesses to opt for higher-tier services, producing further revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>当价格上涨全面铺开时，3亿现有用户每月将至少多付1美元，但在大多数情况下是2或3美元。还要考虑到较低级别服务的价格上涨比较高级别服务的价格上涨幅度更大（按百分比计算）。这可能会促使更多企业选择更高级别的服务，从而进一步实现收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Subscriber churn shouldn't be a huge concern for Microsoft. Not only is this its only price increase in the history of the service, but it also has a moat around its software suite. No business wants to spend hours retraining its workforce on a competing product, and it's standard across industries to use Microsoft's Office suite. So the potential to lose revenue from churn is minimal.</p><p><blockquote>对于微软来说，用户流失不应该是一个大问题。这不仅是该服务历史上唯一一次涨价，而且它的软件套件周围也有一条护城河。没有企业愿意花几个小时对员工进行竞争产品的再培训，使用微软的办公套件是各行各业的标准。因此，因客户流失而损失收入的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> An average increase of $2 per user would translate into $7.2 billion in additional revenue. That's on top of any organic subscriber growth the company can produce. For reference, Office 365 Commercial's revenue increased 25% year over year in the fourth quarter. And during the company's&nbsp;fourth quarter earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella said it's seeing double-digit year-over-year seat growth across every segment.</p><p><blockquote>每个用户平均增加2美元将转化为72亿美元的额外收入。这还不包括该公司可以产生的任何有机用户增长。作为参考，Office 365 Commercial第四季度收入同比增长25%。在该公司第四季度财报看涨期权上，首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)表示，该公司各个细分市场的席位均实现了两位数的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects the price increase to produce $5 billion in additional revenue in fiscal 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives预计，此次提价将在2022财年带来50亿美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the increased revenue should provide a substantial boost to profits. Microsoft isn't planning to add anything more to the suite than it already has. The operating costs won't increase any more substantially compared with the old pricing. As such, the bulk of that revenue increase will flow to Microsoft's bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，收入的增加应该会大幅提高利润。微软不打算在套件中添加比现有更多的东西。与旧定价相比，运营成本不会大幅增加。因此，大部分收入增长将流入微软的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft produced an operating income of nearly $70 billion in fiscal 2021. Adding $4 billion or $5 billion in additional operating income with just a price increase is a 6% or 7% increase in operating income. And don't forget the service is continuing to grow subscriptions. As such, the price increase should compound earnings growth for the&nbsp;tech stock&nbsp;for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>微软2021财年营业收入近700亿美元。仅仅涨价就增加40亿或50亿美元的额外营业收入，营业收入就增加了6%或7%。别忘了这项服务的订阅量正在持续增长。因此，价格上涨应该会在未来几年复合科技股的盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Microsoft's Office Price Increase Means for Investors<blockquote>微软写字楼价格上涨对投资者意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Microsoft's Office Price Increase Means for Investors<blockquote>微软写字楼价格上涨对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 15:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Microsoft is raising prices for business and enterprise customers.</li>  <li>The price increase should add revenue without causing customer churn.</li>  <li>The biggest benefit could be to Microsoft's bottom line.</li> </ul> </p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软正在提高商业和企业客户的价格。</li><li>价格上涨应该会增加收入，而不会导致客户流失。</li><li>最大的好处可能是微软的利润。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> </b>(NASDAQ:&nbsp;MSFT)&nbsp;announced the first price increase for its Microsoft 365 and Office 365 subscriptions since the subscription offering was first introduced more than a decade ago. In its announcement, Microsoft pointed out all the additional value it's added to the software suite over the last 10 years, justifying its price increase. Indeed, new services such as Microsoft Teams have become invaluable for many workplaces in the work-from-home era.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a></b>（纳斯达克：MSFT）宣布自十多年前首次推出订阅服务以来，其微软365和Office 365订阅的首次提价。在其公告中，微软指出了过去10年来它为软件套件增加的所有额外价值，证明了其价格上涨的合理性。事实上，在在家工作的时代，微软团队等新服务对于许多工作场所来说已经变得非常宝贵。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft's decision to raise its pricing should show up on both the top and bottom lines. Here's what investors can expect.</p><p><blockquote>微软提高定价的决定应该会体现在营收和利润上。以下是投资者可以期待的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What exactly is changing?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>到底是什么在改变？</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is specifically changing the commercial pricing for Microsoft 365 and Office 365. Consumer pricing isn't changing at all, so if you subscribe to the service personally, you won't see any change in your monthly or annual bill from Microsoft. The new commercial pricing won't go into effect until March 1, 2022.</p><p><blockquote>微软正在专门改变微软365和Office 365的商业定价。消费者定价根本没有变化，因此如果您亲自订阅该服务，您不会看到微软的月度或年度账单有任何变化。新的商业定价要到2022年3月1日才会生效。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th><b>Service Tier</b></p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th><b>服务层</b></th></tr></thead></table></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Current Monthly Price Per User</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>当前每个用户的月价格</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Monthly Price Per User 3/1/2022</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>每个用户的每月价格3/1/2022</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>    <th><b>Percent Increase</b></p><p><blockquote><th><b>百分比增加</b></th></blockquote></p><p></th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 Business Basic</p><p><blockquote><tbody><tr><td>微软365商业基础</td></tr></tbody></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$5</p><p><blockquote><td>$5</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$6</p><p><blockquote><td>$6</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 Business Premium</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软365商务高级版</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$20</p><p><blockquote><td>$20</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$22</p><p><blockquote><td>$22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E1</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E1</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$8</p><p><blockquote><td>$8</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$10</p><p><blockquote><td>$10</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25%</p><p><blockquote><td>25%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E3</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E3</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$20</p><p><blockquote><td>$20</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$23</p><p><blockquote><td>$23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15%</p><p><blockquote><td>15%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Office 365 E5</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>Office 365 E5</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$35</p><p><blockquote><td>$35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$38</p><p><blockquote><td>$38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft 365 E3</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软365 E3</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$32</p><p><blockquote><td>$32</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$36</p><p><blockquote><td>$36</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> DATA SOURCE: MICROSOFT.</p><p><blockquote>数据来源：微软。</blockquote></p><p> The price increases will affect the 300 million commercial Office 365 and Microsoft 365 paid seats. But they won't all see the price increase at once. Microsoft locks in long-term contracts with businesses, so the full impact probably won't show up until well into fiscal 2023.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨将影响3亿个商业Office 365和微软365付费座位。但他们不会一下子都看到价格上涨。微软与企业签订了长期合同，因此全面影响可能要到2023财年才会显现出来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What kind of impact can investors expect?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者可以期待什么样的影响？</b></blockquote></p><p> When the price increase is fully rolled out, the 300 million existing subscribers will be paying at least $1 more per month, but $2 or $3 in most cases. Also consider that the price increases for the lower tiers of service are more substantial (on a percentage basis) than the higher tiers. That could push more businesses to opt for higher-tier services, producing further revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>当价格上涨全面铺开时，3亿现有用户每月将至少多付1美元，但在大多数情况下是2或3美元。还要考虑到较低级别服务的价格上涨比较高级别服务的价格上涨幅度更大（按百分比计算）。这可能会促使更多企业选择更高级别的服务，从而进一步实现收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Subscriber churn shouldn't be a huge concern for Microsoft. Not only is this its only price increase in the history of the service, but it also has a moat around its software suite. No business wants to spend hours retraining its workforce on a competing product, and it's standard across industries to use Microsoft's Office suite. So the potential to lose revenue from churn is minimal.</p><p><blockquote>对于微软来说，用户流失不应该是一个大问题。这不仅是该服务历史上唯一一次涨价，而且它的软件套件周围也有一条护城河。没有企业愿意花几个小时对员工进行竞争产品的再培训，使用微软的办公套件是各行各业的标准。因此，因客户流失而损失收入的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> An average increase of $2 per user would translate into $7.2 billion in additional revenue. That's on top of any organic subscriber growth the company can produce. For reference, Office 365 Commercial's revenue increased 25% year over year in the fourth quarter. And during the company's&nbsp;fourth quarter earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella said it's seeing double-digit year-over-year seat growth across every segment.</p><p><blockquote>每个用户平均增加2美元将转化为72亿美元的额外收入。这还不包括该公司可以产生的任何有机用户增长。作为参考，Office 365 Commercial第四季度收入同比增长25%。在该公司第四季度财报看涨期权上，首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)表示，该公司各个细分市场的席位均实现了两位数的同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects the price increase to produce $5 billion in additional revenue in fiscal 2022.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Daniel Ives预计，此次提价将在2022财年带来50亿美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the increased revenue should provide a substantial boost to profits. Microsoft isn't planning to add anything more to the suite than it already has. The operating costs won't increase any more substantially compared with the old pricing. As such, the bulk of that revenue increase will flow to Microsoft's bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，收入的增加应该会大幅提高利润。微软不打算在套件中添加比现有更多的东西。与旧定价相比，运营成本不会大幅增加。因此，大部分收入增长将流入微软的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft produced an operating income of nearly $70 billion in fiscal 2021. Adding $4 billion or $5 billion in additional operating income with just a price increase is a 6% or 7% increase in operating income. And don't forget the service is continuing to grow subscriptions. As such, the price increase should compound earnings growth for the&nbsp;tech stock&nbsp;for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>微软2021财年营业收入近700亿美元。仅仅涨价就增加40亿或50亿美元的额外营业收入，营业收入就增加了6%或7%。别忘了这项服务的订阅量正在持续增长。因此，价格上涨应该会在未来几年复合科技股的盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/22/what-microsofts-office-price-increase-means-for-in/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/22/what-microsofts-office-price-increase-means-for-in/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113577058","content_text":"Key Points\n\nMicrosoft is raising prices for business and enterprise customers.\nThe price increase should add revenue without causing customer churn.\nThe biggest benefit could be to Microsoft's bottom line.\n\n\nMicrosoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) announced the first price increase for its Microsoft 365 and Office 365 subscriptions since the subscription offering was first introduced more than a decade ago. In its announcement, Microsoft pointed out all the additional value it's added to the software suite over the last 10 years, justifying its price increase. Indeed, new services such as Microsoft Teams have become invaluable for many workplaces in the work-from-home era.\nMicrosoft's decision to raise its pricing should show up on both the top and bottom lines. Here's what investors can expect.\nWhat exactly is changing?\nMicrosoft is specifically changing the commercial pricing for Microsoft 365 and Office 365. Consumer pricing isn't changing at all, so if you subscribe to the service personally, you won't see any change in your monthly or annual bill from Microsoft. The new commercial pricing won't go into effect until March 1, 2022.\n\n\n\nService Tier\nCurrent Monthly Price Per User\nMonthly Price Per User 3/1/2022\nPercent Increase\n\n\n\n\nMicrosoft 365 Business Basic\n$5\n$6\n20%\n\n\nMicrosoft 365 Business Premium\n$20\n$22\n10%\n\n\nOffice 365 E1\n$8\n$10\n25%\n\n\nOffice 365 E3\n$20\n$23\n15%\n\n\nOffice 365 E5\n$35\n$38\n8.6%\n\n\nMicrosoft 365 E3\n$32\n$36\n12.5%\n\n\n\nDATA SOURCE: MICROSOFT.\nThe price increases will affect the 300 million commercial Office 365 and Microsoft 365 paid seats. But they won't all see the price increase at once. Microsoft locks in long-term contracts with businesses, so the full impact probably won't show up until well into fiscal 2023.\nWhat kind of impact can investors expect?\nWhen the price increase is fully rolled out, the 300 million existing subscribers will be paying at least $1 more per month, but $2 or $3 in most cases. Also consider that the price increases for the lower tiers of service are more substantial (on a percentage basis) than the higher tiers. That could push more businesses to opt for higher-tier services, producing further revenue growth.\nSubscriber churn shouldn't be a huge concern for Microsoft. Not only is this its only price increase in the history of the service, but it also has a moat around its software suite. No business wants to spend hours retraining its workforce on a competing product, and it's standard across industries to use Microsoft's Office suite. So the potential to lose revenue from churn is minimal.\nAn average increase of $2 per user would translate into $7.2 billion in additional revenue. That's on top of any organic subscriber growth the company can produce. For reference, Office 365 Commercial's revenue increased 25% year over year in the fourth quarter. And during the company's fourth quarter earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella said it's seeing double-digit year-over-year seat growth across every segment.\nWedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects the price increase to produce $5 billion in additional revenue in fiscal 2022.\nImportantly, the increased revenue should provide a substantial boost to profits. Microsoft isn't planning to add anything more to the suite than it already has. The operating costs won't increase any more substantially compared with the old pricing. As such, the bulk of that revenue increase will flow to Microsoft's bottom line.\nMicrosoft produced an operating income of nearly $70 billion in fiscal 2021. Adding $4 billion or $5 billion in additional operating income with just a price increase is a 6% or 7% increase in operating income. And don't forget the service is continuing to grow subscriptions. As such, the price increase should compound earnings growth for the tech stock for years to come.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836219675,"gmtCreate":1629499074297,"gmtModify":1633684495112,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836219675","repostId":"1191201221","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838265006,"gmtCreate":1629414515605,"gmtModify":1633685092334,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838265006","repostId":"1102855434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838800631,"gmtCreate":1629383257123,"gmtModify":1633685250104,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long pfe","listText":"Long pfe","text":"Long pfe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838800631","repostId":"1179587518","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179587518","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629381512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179587518?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:58","market":"other","language":"en","title":"White House Holds Conference to Illustrate Why People Need to Get a Third Dose<blockquote>白宫召开会议说明为什么人们需要接种第三剂疫苗</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179587518","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"I have to acknowledge that the United States is the most courageous country, the first in the world ","content":"<p>I have to acknowledge that the United States is the most courageous country, the first in the world to admit that the effectiveness of vaccines will decline.</p><p><blockquote>我不得不承认，美国是最勇敢的国家，是世界上第一个承认疫苗有效性会下降的国家。</blockquote></p><p> It took less than a week from the initial trend of taking a third dose to the White House's press conference yesterday, suggesting that the current strong rebound of the epidemic in the United States has forced the officials to quickly advance the injection of a third dose. At present, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have not officially announced the shot of a third dose, but the various departments, under the leadership of Biden, will cooperate closely. There are reasons to believe that the official announcement on a third dose made by the FDA and CDC will come soon.</p><p><blockquote>从最初出现打第三剂的趋势到昨天白宫的记者会，用了不到一周的时间，暗示当前美国疫情的强劲反弹迫使官方不得不迅速推进第三剂的注射。目前，食品和药物管理局（FDA）和疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）尚未正式宣布第三剂的注射，但各部门在拜登的领导下，将密切合作。有理由相信，FDA和CDC将很快正式宣布第三剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Holding the conference on the vaccination of a third dose in the United States is a double-edged sword. People who are willing to be vaccinated will be better protected, but those who are unwilling to be vaccinated will be more reluctant to do so. The current shortcomings of group vaccination in the United States still lie in the unwillingness of conservatives to vaccinate. The conservatives suspect that the government is conspiring to implant the chip into the human body. The more things the government encourages, the more people must oppose it. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in the United States. But there are countless pieces of empirical evidence showing that even if people have received two doses, they still have a high risk of contracting the disease when exposing to the unvaccinated. For the safety of the people who are willing to get the vaccination, a third dose must be introduced now.</p><p><blockquote>在美国举行接种第三剂疫苗的会议是一把双刃剑。愿意接种疫苗的人会得到更好的保护，但不愿意接种的人会更不愿意接种。目前美国群体接种的短板仍在于保守派不愿接种。保守派怀疑政府密谋将芯片植入人体。政府鼓励的事情越多，人民一定越反对。这一现象在美国尤为明显。但有无数的经验证据表明，即使人们已经接种了两剂疫苗，当接触未接种疫苗的人时，他们仍然有很高的感染风险。为了愿意接种疫苗的人的安全，现在必须引入第三剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Four politicians and experts, one of whom was Fauci, were invited to the conference. Although Fauci owns Biden's strong support, the Biden government will deliberately downplay his personal style. Regarding Fauci, there are many controversies. The core reason is that some of Fauci's remarks are inconsistent—for example, his attitude about wearing masks. However, the problem is not with Fauci, but with human beings.</p><p><blockquote>四位政治家和专家，其中一位是福奇，被邀请参加会议。福奇虽然拥有拜登的大力支持，但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人风格。关于福奇，争议颇多。核心原因是福奇的一些言论前后矛盾——比如他对戴口罩的态度。然而，问题不在于福奇，而在于人类。</blockquote></p><p> Human beings have always advocated a certain spirit for thousands of years. From the previous \"god\" to the current \"science,\" the spirit has always been based on something abstract. But the essence of \"science\" lies in its daring to admit its mistakes and then correct them. Newton's three laws corrected the geocentric theory and heliocentric theory, while Einstein's theory of relativity corrected Newton's three laws. As the spokesperson of \"science,\" it is impossible for Fauci to avoid making mistakes. Any scientist in the world will make mistakes, especially that we knew nothing about COVID-19 when it broke out. But Fauci can correct his mistakes, proving that he is a qualified scientist. Unfortunately, mankind always expects an omnipotent person to lead the world.</p><p><blockquote>人类几千年来一直崇尚某种精神。从以前的“上帝”到现在的“科学”，精神一直是建立在某种抽象的东西之上的。但“科学”的精髓在于敢于承认错误，然后改正错误。牛顿三定律修正了地心说和日心说，爱因斯坦的相对论修正了牛顿三定律。作为“科学”的代言人，福奇不可能不犯错误。世界上任何一个科学家都会犯错误，尤其是新冠肺炎爆发时我们对它一无所知。但福奇能够改正错误，证明他是一个合格的科学家。不幸的是，人类总是期待一个无所不能的人来领导世界。</blockquote></p><p> Let's go back to the conference itself – a third dose of vaccination. My reviews made on August 9 have been attached to the document of the conference held yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到会议本身——第三剂疫苗接种。我在8月9日所作的评论已附在昨天举行的会议的文件中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e979faf16460fd4e5ec86dd322b685d\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the document also summarizes different studies on the decline of vaccine effectiveness. From the point of view of infection, the protective effect of the mRNA vaccine attenuates significantly after 3 to 6 months (Figure&nbsp;1); from the point of view of hospitalized serious illness, the effectiveness of mRNA vaccine is not bad after 3-6 months (Figure&nbsp;2).</p><p><blockquote>此外，文件还总结了关于疫苗有效性下降的不同研究。从感染的角度来看，mRNA疫苗的保护作用在3~6个月后明显减弱（图1）；从住院重症来看，3-6个月后mRNA疫苗的有效性还不错（图2）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc3282dd52e287ddb48be0989bc0085\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"137\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2053e9ea4f27c6c68cce44d11f8a5ba3\" tg-width=\"292\" tg-height=\"140\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the Delta variants, the document cited relatively few studies, but confirmed two points: (1) The effectiveness of the vaccine against the Delta variants has dropped significantly, with a study showing a decrease from 92% to 64%; (2) Higher levels of antibody may be more effective for Delta variants.</p><p><blockquote>关于德尔塔变异株，该文件引用的研究相对较少，但证实了两点：（1）疫苗对德尔塔变异株的有效性明显下降，一项研究显示从92%下降到64%；（2）较高水平的抗体可能对δ变体更有效。</blockquote></p><p> To sum up, why do we have to get a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine? Primarily, the antibody levels will naturally decrease. Then, the vaccine does not work well for the Delta variants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，为什么我们必须接种第三剂新冠疫苗？首先，抗体水平会自然下降。然后，疫苗对Delta变种效果不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Through this conference, we also need to recognize the following points:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过这次大会，我们还需要认清以下几点：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1. Regardless of the technology of the vaccine itself, the antibody levels in the human body will always naturally decline. This may be a defect in human genes. Not only the coronavirus antibody, but the flu antibody levels will naturally decrease in our body. No one flu vaccine can be used once and for all, though it has been developed for so long. The same situation can happen to coronavirus vaccines, too.</p><p><blockquote>1.不管疫苗本身的技术如何，人体内的抗体水平总会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的缺陷。不仅是冠状病毒抗体，流感抗体水平在我们体内也会自然下降。没有一种流感疫苗可以一劳永逸地使用，尽管它已经开发了这么长时间。同样的情况也可能发生在冠状病毒疫苗上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> 2. The current vaccine is not developed for the Delta variants, so its effectiveness attenuates. Pharmaceutical companies are likely to open a vaccine specifically targeted at the Delta variants, which can be combined with the original vaccine ingredients to become a \"two-valent coronavirus vaccine,\" but it will take time.</p><p><blockquote>2.目前的疫苗不是针对德尔塔变异株开发的，因此有效性减弱。制药公司很可能会开放一种专门针对Delta变异株的疫苗，可以与原有的疫苗成分结合，成为“二价冠状病毒疫苗”，但这需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> 3. No vaccine can be taken once and for all, so a good vaccine is the one with a higher antibody level. Both mRNA and inactivated vaccines have the issue of antibody effectiveness attenuation, which means that there will also be a third and fourth injection. However, the key for human beings to coexist with the virus lies in how to develop a vaccine with a longer duration of injection.</p><p><blockquote>3.没有一种疫苗可以一劳永逸，所以抗体水平较高的就是好疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都存在抗体效力减弱的问题，这意味着也会有第三针和第四针的情况。然而，人类与病毒共存的关键在于如何研发出注射持续时间更长的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In a word, two doses within a year will be the norm.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之，一年内接种两剂将是常态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House Holds Conference to Illustrate Why People Need to Get a Third Dose<blockquote>白宫召开会议说明为什么人们需要接种第三剂疫苗</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House Holds Conference to Illustrate Why People Need to Get a Third Dose<blockquote>白宫召开会议说明为什么人们需要接种第三剂疫苗</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-19 21:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>I have to acknowledge that the United States is the most courageous country, the first in the world to admit that the effectiveness of vaccines will decline.</p><p><blockquote>我不得不承认，美国是最勇敢的国家，是世界上第一个承认疫苗有效性会下降的国家。</blockquote></p><p> It took less than a week from the initial trend of taking a third dose to the White House's press conference yesterday, suggesting that the current strong rebound of the epidemic in the United States has forced the officials to quickly advance the injection of a third dose. At present, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have not officially announced the shot of a third dose, but the various departments, under the leadership of Biden, will cooperate closely. There are reasons to believe that the official announcement on a third dose made by the FDA and CDC will come soon.</p><p><blockquote>从最初出现打第三剂的趋势到昨天白宫的记者会，用了不到一周的时间，暗示当前美国疫情的强劲反弹迫使官方不得不迅速推进第三剂的注射。目前，食品和药物管理局（FDA）和疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）尚未正式宣布第三剂的注射，但各部门在拜登的领导下，将密切合作。有理由相信，FDA和CDC将很快正式宣布第三剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Holding the conference on the vaccination of a third dose in the United States is a double-edged sword. People who are willing to be vaccinated will be better protected, but those who are unwilling to be vaccinated will be more reluctant to do so. The current shortcomings of group vaccination in the United States still lie in the unwillingness of conservatives to vaccinate. The conservatives suspect that the government is conspiring to implant the chip into the human body. The more things the government encourages, the more people must oppose it. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in the United States. But there are countless pieces of empirical evidence showing that even if people have received two doses, they still have a high risk of contracting the disease when exposing to the unvaccinated. For the safety of the people who are willing to get the vaccination, a third dose must be introduced now.</p><p><blockquote>在美国举行接种第三剂疫苗的会议是一把双刃剑。愿意接种疫苗的人会得到更好的保护，但不愿意接种的人会更不愿意接种。目前美国群体接种的短板仍在于保守派不愿接种。保守派怀疑政府密谋将芯片植入人体。政府鼓励的事情越多，人民一定越反对。这一现象在美国尤为明显。但有无数的经验证据表明，即使人们已经接种了两剂疫苗，当接触未接种疫苗的人时，他们仍然有很高的感染风险。为了愿意接种疫苗的人的安全，现在必须引入第三剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Four politicians and experts, one of whom was Fauci, were invited to the conference. Although Fauci owns Biden's strong support, the Biden government will deliberately downplay his personal style. Regarding Fauci, there are many controversies. The core reason is that some of Fauci's remarks are inconsistent—for example, his attitude about wearing masks. However, the problem is not with Fauci, but with human beings.</p><p><blockquote>四位政治家和专家，其中一位是福奇，被邀请参加会议。福奇虽然拥有拜登的大力支持，但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人风格。关于福奇，争议颇多。核心原因是福奇的一些言论前后矛盾——比如他对戴口罩的态度。然而，问题不在于福奇，而在于人类。</blockquote></p><p> Human beings have always advocated a certain spirit for thousands of years. From the previous \"god\" to the current \"science,\" the spirit has always been based on something abstract. But the essence of \"science\" lies in its daring to admit its mistakes and then correct them. Newton's three laws corrected the geocentric theory and heliocentric theory, while Einstein's theory of relativity corrected Newton's three laws. As the spokesperson of \"science,\" it is impossible for Fauci to avoid making mistakes. Any scientist in the world will make mistakes, especially that we knew nothing about COVID-19 when it broke out. But Fauci can correct his mistakes, proving that he is a qualified scientist. Unfortunately, mankind always expects an omnipotent person to lead the world.</p><p><blockquote>人类几千年来一直崇尚某种精神。从以前的“上帝”到现在的“科学”，精神一直是建立在某种抽象的东西之上的。但“科学”的精髓在于敢于承认错误，然后改正错误。牛顿三定律修正了地心说和日心说，爱因斯坦的相对论修正了牛顿三定律。作为“科学”的代言人，福奇不可能不犯错误。世界上任何一个科学家都会犯错误，尤其是新冠肺炎爆发时我们对它一无所知。但福奇能够改正错误，证明他是一个合格的科学家。不幸的是，人类总是期待一个无所不能的人来领导世界。</blockquote></p><p> Let's go back to the conference itself – a third dose of vaccination. My reviews made on August 9 have been attached to the document of the conference held yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到会议本身——第三剂疫苗接种。我在8月9日所作的评论已附在昨天举行的会议的文件中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e979faf16460fd4e5ec86dd322b685d\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the document also summarizes different studies on the decline of vaccine effectiveness. From the point of view of infection, the protective effect of the mRNA vaccine attenuates significantly after 3 to 6 months (Figure&nbsp;1); from the point of view of hospitalized serious illness, the effectiveness of mRNA vaccine is not bad after 3-6 months (Figure&nbsp;2).</p><p><blockquote>此外，文件还总结了关于疫苗有效性下降的不同研究。从感染的角度来看，mRNA疫苗的保护作用在3~6个月后明显减弱（图1）；从住院重症来看，3-6个月后mRNA疫苗的有效性还不错（图2）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc3282dd52e287ddb48be0989bc0085\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"137\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2053e9ea4f27c6c68cce44d11f8a5ba3\" tg-width=\"292\" tg-height=\"140\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the Delta variants, the document cited relatively few studies, but confirmed two points: (1) The effectiveness of the vaccine against the Delta variants has dropped significantly, with a study showing a decrease from 92% to 64%; (2) Higher levels of antibody may be more effective for Delta variants.</p><p><blockquote>关于德尔塔变异株，该文件引用的研究相对较少，但证实了两点：（1）疫苗对德尔塔变异株的有效性明显下降，一项研究显示从92%下降到64%；（2）较高水平的抗体可能对δ变体更有效。</blockquote></p><p> To sum up, why do we have to get a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine? Primarily, the antibody levels will naturally decrease. Then, the vaccine does not work well for the Delta variants.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，为什么我们必须接种第三剂新冠疫苗？首先，抗体水平会自然下降。然后，疫苗对Delta变种效果不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Through this conference, we also need to recognize the following points:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过这次大会，我们还需要认清以下几点：</b></blockquote></p><p> 1. Regardless of the technology of the vaccine itself, the antibody levels in the human body will always naturally decline. This may be a defect in human genes. Not only the coronavirus antibody, but the flu antibody levels will naturally decrease in our body. No one flu vaccine can be used once and for all, though it has been developed for so long. The same situation can happen to coronavirus vaccines, too.</p><p><blockquote>1.不管疫苗本身的技术如何，人体内的抗体水平总会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的缺陷。不仅是冠状病毒抗体，流感抗体水平在我们体内也会自然下降。没有一种流感疫苗可以一劳永逸地使用，尽管它已经开发了这么长时间。同样的情况也可能发生在冠状病毒疫苗上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> 2. The current vaccine is not developed for the Delta variants, so its effectiveness attenuates. Pharmaceutical companies are likely to open a vaccine specifically targeted at the Delta variants, which can be combined with the original vaccine ingredients to become a \"two-valent coronavirus vaccine,\" but it will take time.</p><p><blockquote>2.目前的疫苗不是针对德尔塔变异株开发的，因此有效性减弱。制药公司很可能会开放一种专门针对Delta变异株的疫苗，可以与原有的疫苗成分结合，成为“二价冠状病毒疫苗”，但这需要时间。</blockquote></p><p> 3. No vaccine can be taken once and for all, so a good vaccine is the one with a higher antibody level. Both mRNA and inactivated vaccines have the issue of antibody effectiveness attenuation, which means that there will also be a third and fourth injection. However, the key for human beings to coexist with the virus lies in how to develop a vaccine with a longer duration of injection.</p><p><blockquote>3.没有一种疫苗可以一劳永逸，所以抗体水平较高的就是好疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都存在抗体效力减弱的问题，这意味着也会有第三针和第四针的情况。然而，人类与病毒共存的关键在于如何研发出注射持续时间更长的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>In a word, two doses within a year will be the norm.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总之，一年内接种两剂将是常态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179587518","content_text":"I have to acknowledge that the United States is the most courageous country, the first in the world to admit that the effectiveness of vaccines will decline.\nIt took less than a week from the initial trend of taking a third dose to the White House's press conference yesterday, suggesting that the current strong rebound of the epidemic in the United States has forced the officials to quickly advance the injection of a third dose. At present, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have not officially announced the shot of a third dose, but the various departments, under the leadership of Biden, will cooperate closely. There are reasons to believe that the official announcement on a third dose made by the FDA and CDC will come soon.\nHolding the conference on the vaccination of a third dose in the United States is a double-edged sword. People who are willing to be vaccinated will be better protected, but those who are unwilling to be vaccinated will be more reluctant to do so. The current shortcomings of group vaccination in the United States still lie in the unwillingness of conservatives to vaccinate. The conservatives suspect that the government is conspiring to implant the chip into the human body. The more things the government encourages, the more people must oppose it. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in the United States. But there are countless pieces of empirical evidence showing that even if people have received two doses, they still have a high risk of contracting the disease when exposing to the unvaccinated. For the safety of the people who are willing to get the vaccination, a third dose must be introduced now.\nFour politicians and experts, one of whom was Fauci, were invited to the conference. Although Fauci owns Biden's strong support, the Biden government will deliberately downplay his personal style. Regarding Fauci, there are many controversies. The core reason is that some of Fauci's remarks are inconsistent—for example, his attitude about wearing masks. However, the problem is not with Fauci, but with human beings.\nHuman beings have always advocated a certain spirit for thousands of years. From the previous \"god\" to the current \"science,\" the spirit has always been based on something abstract. But the essence of \"science\" lies in its daring to admit its mistakes and then correct them. Newton's three laws corrected the geocentric theory and heliocentric theory, while Einstein's theory of relativity corrected Newton's three laws. As the spokesperson of \"science,\" it is impossible for Fauci to avoid making mistakes. Any scientist in the world will make mistakes, especially that we knew nothing about COVID-19 when it broke out. But Fauci can correct his mistakes, proving that he is a qualified scientist. Unfortunately, mankind always expects an omnipotent person to lead the world.\nLet's go back to the conference itself – a third dose of vaccination. My reviews made on August 9 have been attached to the document of the conference held yesterday.\n\nIn addition, the document also summarizes different studies on the decline of vaccine effectiveness. From the point of view of infection, the protective effect of the mRNA vaccine attenuates significantly after 3 to 6 months (Figure 1); from the point of view of hospitalized serious illness, the effectiveness of mRNA vaccine is not bad after 3-6 months (Figure 2).\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nRegarding the Delta variants, the document cited relatively few studies, but confirmed two points: (1) The effectiveness of the vaccine against the Delta variants has dropped significantly, with a study showing a decrease from 92% to 64%; (2) Higher levels of antibody may be more effective for Delta variants.\nTo sum up, why do we have to get a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine? Primarily, the antibody levels will naturally decrease. Then, the vaccine does not work well for the Delta variants.\nThrough this conference, we also need to recognize the following points:\n1. Regardless of the technology of the vaccine itself, the antibody levels in the human body will always naturally decline. This may be a defect in human genes. Not only the coronavirus antibody, but the flu antibody levels will naturally decrease in our body. No one flu vaccine can be used once and for all, though it has been developed for so long. The same situation can happen to coronavirus vaccines, too.\n2. The current vaccine is not developed for the Delta variants, so its effectiveness attenuates. Pharmaceutical companies are likely to open a vaccine specifically targeted at the Delta variants, which can be combined with the original vaccine ingredients to become a \"two-valent coronavirus vaccine,\" but it will take time.\n3. No vaccine can be taken once and for all, so a good vaccine is the one with a higher antibody level. Both mRNA and inactivated vaccines have the issue of antibody effectiveness attenuation, which means that there will also be a third and fourth injection. However, the key for human beings to coexist with the virus lies in how to develop a vaccine with a longer duration of injection.\nIn a word, two doses within a year will be the norm.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838172692,"gmtCreate":1629383124916,"gmtModify":1633685252541,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838172692","repostId":"1115729576","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833797126,"gmtCreate":1629261374365,"gmtModify":1633686130487,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like thanks","listText":"Like thanks","text":"Like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833797126","repostId":"1142199794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839427411,"gmtCreate":1629175921433,"gmtModify":1633686799940,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks","listText":"Like please thanks","text":"Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839427411","repostId":"1176906413","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839909999,"gmtCreate":1629112289311,"gmtModify":1633687333871,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks","listText":"Like please thanks","text":"Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839909999","repostId":"2159248377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830916805,"gmtCreate":1629000134607,"gmtModify":1633688044650,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks","listText":"Like please thanks","text":"Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830916805","repostId":"2159214569","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159214569","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628989290,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159214569?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159214569","media":"MarkeWatch","summary":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.So where does Nio $$","content":"<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市中心的一家蔚来店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，其市值为602亿美元。以此衡量，它比1903年成立的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能是有意义的——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>该公司在周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资理论吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与2025年预计收益的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的10家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销售额或交付量（如果两者都报告，以较高者为准）以及表下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——名单上的特斯拉公司和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特主要生产内燃机汽车，其速度几乎是蔚来电动汽车生产速度的35倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并不都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数人都没有公布电动汽车销量。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>在那些这样做的国家中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而蔚来和特斯拉则占100%。丰田的PHEV销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括PHEV（占第二季度销量的6.7%）和BEV（占总销量的4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：总计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付量的细分数据尚未公布，但2021年上半年，交付了153,243辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，或占总交付量的11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测之比</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这类公司关注的是增长而不是利润。这方面的一个例子是亚马逊公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>几十年来，该公司的市盈率一直很高，因为它一直在努力扩展到新的业务领域，但牺牲了利润。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用持续大量销售传统汽车的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会凸显。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以12个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用对2022年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和FactSet调查的分析师对2022年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括截至2025年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和2025年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于2023年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来市盈率估值，标普500指数的加权交易价格是2022年每股收益普遍预期的20.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与销售额之比</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润较低或净亏损的早期公司来说，远期市销率估计可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年中上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价却上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组推动市销率的类似数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的共识全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其2022年普遍销售预期的2.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师对10家汽车制造商的看法摘要。对于主要在美国以外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来股票的价值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarkeWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市中心的一家蔚来店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，其市值为602亿美元。以此衡量，它比1903年成立的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能是有意义的——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$（蔚来）$</a>该公司在周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资理论吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与2025年预计收益的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的10家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销售额或交付量（如果两者都报告，以较高者为准）以及表下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——名单上的特斯拉公司和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特主要生产内燃机汽车，其速度几乎是蔚来电动汽车生产速度的35倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并不都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数人都没有公布电动汽车销量。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>在那些这样做的国家中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而蔚来和特斯拉则占100%。丰田的PHEV销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括PHEV（占第二季度销量的6.7%）和BEV（占总销量的4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：总计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付量的细分数据尚未公布，但2021年上半年，交付了153,243辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，或占总交付量的11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测之比</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这类公司关注的是增长而不是利润。这方面的一个例子是亚马逊公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>几十年来，该公司的市盈率一直很高，因为它一直在努力扩展到新的业务领域，但牺牲了利润。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用持续大量销售传统汽车的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会凸显。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以12个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用对2022年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和FactSet调查的分析师对2022年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括截至2025年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和2025年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于2023年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来市盈率估值，标普500指数的加权交易价格是2022年每股收益普遍预期的20.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与销售额之比</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润较低或净亏损的早期公司来说，远期市销率估计可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年中上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价却上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组推动市销率的类似数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的共识全年估计：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其2022年普遍销售预期的2.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的分析师对10家汽车制造商的看法摘要。对于主要在美国以外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news\">MarkeWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STLA":"Stellantis NV","HMC":"本田汽车","GM":"通用汽车","NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159214569","content_text":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.\nA Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)\nChinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.\nThat might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.\nSo where does Nio $(NIO)$, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.\nDoubling car production\nFor the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.\nHere's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYou can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.\nFor now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.\nOne thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.\nAmong those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:\nFor Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.\nVolkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.\nFor Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.\nValuation to earnings estimates\nFor companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.\nA high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.\nThen again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.\nNormally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.\nFirst, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:\n\nNio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.\nValuation to sales\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.\nHere's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:\n\nFor reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalysts' opinions\nHere's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"GM":0.9,"F":0.9,"STLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894416285,"gmtCreate":1628846910647,"gmtModify":1633689033028,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894416285","repostId":"1162203414","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162203414","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628840179,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162203414?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Supplier Foxconn Aims To Begin Mass-Producing EVs In US Within 2 Years As Smartphone Sales Slump: Report<blockquote>由于智能手机销量下滑，苹果供应商富士康计划两年内开始在美国大规模生产电动汽车：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162203414","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd , better known as Foxconn, said Thursday it plans to begin mass ","content":"<p><div> Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd , better known as Foxconn, said Thursday it plans to begin mass production electric vehicles in the United States and Thailand, Nikkei Asiareported. What Happened:...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《日经亚洲》报道，鸿海精密工业股份有限公司（俗称富士康）周四表示，计划开始在美国和泰国大规模生产电动汽车。发生了什么：...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Supplier Foxconn Aims To Begin Mass-Producing EVs In US Within 2 Years As Smartphone Sales Slump: Report<blockquote>由于智能手机销量下滑，苹果供应商富士康计划两年内开始在美国大规模生产电动汽车：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Supplier Foxconn Aims To Begin Mass-Producing EVs In US Within 2 Years As Smartphone Sales Slump: Report<blockquote>由于智能手机销量下滑，苹果供应商富士康计划两年内开始在美国大规模生产电动汽车：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 15:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd , better known as Foxconn, said Thursday it plans to begin mass production electric vehicles in the United States and Thailand, Nikkei Asiareported. What Happened:...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《日经亚洲》报道，鸿海精密工业股份有限公司（俗称富士康）周四表示，计划开始在美国和泰国大规模生产电动汽车。发生了什么：...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HNHPF":"Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd.","AAPL":"苹果","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22481495/apple-supplier-foxconn-aims-to-begin-mass-producing-evs-in-us-within-2-years-as-smartphone-sales-slu","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162203414","content_text":"Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd , better known as Foxconn, said Thursday it plans to begin mass production electric vehicles in the United States and Thailand, Nikkei Asiareported.\nWhat Happened:Foxconn Chair Young Liu reportedly said at the company’s April-June quarter earnings call that “Our plans are to begin mass production in the U.S. and Thailand respectively in 2023.”\n“Other than in the U.S. and Thailand, we are also in talks with possible locations in Europe too as part of our global EV footprint strategy,\" Liu said, as per Nikkei Asia.\nThe U.S. plant will address the needs of Fisker Inc. , an EV startup, for which Foxconn will start building EVs by the end of 2023, the executive disclosed.\nThe plant in Thailand will be a joint venture with local oil and gas giant PTT and will focus on the development of a platform and component production for EVs, as per Liu.\nThe planned capacity at the Thai facility will reach 150,000 to 200,000 units, reported Nikkei Asia.\nWhy It Matters:Foxconn’s second-quarternet income rose 30%on a year-over-year basis to NT$ 29.8 billion ($1.07 billion), beating an estimate of NT$25.7 billion ($923.29 million).\nThe Apple Inc supplier expects sales of smartphones to fall sequentially this quarter, as per Bloomberg.\nIn March, it was reported that Foxconn wasexploring North American manufacturing siteswith possible locations spanning Wisconsin or Mexico.\nMexico has been ruled out as a possible location but the company is still negotiating with three U.S. states including Wisconsin, as per Nikkei Asia.\nFoxconn supplies to a number of large tech names such as Apple,Microsoft Inc , Google parent Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com, Inc","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HNHPF":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895429558,"gmtCreate":1628767112774,"gmtModify":1633689682730,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please, tq","listText":"Like please, tq","text":"Like please, tq","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895429558","repostId":"2158251352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158251352","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628765803,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2158251352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 18:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brookfield Asset Mgmt Q2 FFO $1.01 Up From $0.73 YoY<blockquote>Brookfield Asset Mgmt第二季度FFO 1.01美元，高于去年同期0.73美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158251352","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Brookfield Asset Mgmt (NYSE:BAM) reported quarterly earnings of $1.01 per share. This is a 38.36 percent increase over earnings of $0.73 per share from the same period last year.","content":"<p>Brookfield Asset Mgmt (NYSE:BAM) reported quarterly earnings of $1.01 per share. This is a 38.36 percent increase over earnings of $0.73 per share from the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Asset Mgmt（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BAM）报告季度收益为每股1.01美元。这比去年同期每股收益0.73美元增长了38.36%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brookfield Asset Mgmt Q2 FFO $1.01 Up From $0.73 YoY<blockquote>Brookfield Asset Mgmt第二季度FFO 1.01美元，高于去年同期0.73美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrookfield Asset Mgmt Q2 FFO $1.01 Up From $0.73 YoY<blockquote>Brookfield Asset Mgmt第二季度FFO 1.01美元，高于去年同期0.73美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-12 18:56</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Brookfield Asset Mgmt (NYSE:BAM) reported quarterly earnings of $1.01 per share. This is a 38.36 percent increase over earnings of $0.73 per share from the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>Brookfield Asset Mgmt（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BAM）报告季度收益为每股1.01美元。这比去年同期每股收益0.73美元增长了38.36%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc","BAM":"布鲁克菲尔德资产管理"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158251352","content_text":"Brookfield Asset Mgmt (NYSE:BAM) reported quarterly earnings of $1.01 per share. This is a 38.36 percent increase over earnings of $0.73 per share from the same period last year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QTWO":0.9,"BAM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896926351,"gmtCreate":1628552732773,"gmtModify":1633746290563,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896926351","repostId":"1142685473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896929384,"gmtCreate":1628552607148,"gmtModify":1633746294288,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896929384","repostId":"1176984218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898406799,"gmtCreate":1628515785811,"gmtModify":1633746542641,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898406799","repostId":"1190365746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891477101,"gmtCreate":1628421027403,"gmtModify":1633747218975,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891477101","repostId":"2157490509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891477353,"gmtCreate":1628421011972,"gmtModify":1633747219098,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long","listText":"Long","text":"Long","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891477353","repostId":"2157490509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893691635,"gmtCreate":1628258388327,"gmtModify":1633752177762,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893691635","repostId":"1155656235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155656235","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628227304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155656235?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 13:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years<blockquote>预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的20只云股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155656235","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales ","content":"<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector</p><p><blockquote>在该行业反弹的推动下，云ETF接近历史新高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78101d8010e186fe4df59b2ef82b5de6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Analysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>分析师预计，提供云服务的公司未来将实现强劲的销售增长。（盖蒂图片社/iStockphoto）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> U.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管来自中国的传言和德尔塔变异毒株感染人数激增，但美国投资者仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.</p><p><blockquote>云公司——那些处于计算能力向互联网分布式模式转变前沿的公司——预计将在未来几年快速增长，覆盖该领域的五家最大交易所交易基金中有四家即将创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>下面是这些ETF持有的股票屏幕，显示了预计到2023年销售额增幅最大的股票。在一个许多参与者处于相对早期阶段的行业中，销售额的增长而不是盈利的增长可能是股价的最佳驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> To begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们查看了五只最大的云ETF：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36209ce827d95e822cad5128be8b146a\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.</p><p><blockquote>ETF可能是您采取广泛方法长期参与云革命的最佳方式。如果您对任何ETF感兴趣，您应该查看基金经理的网站。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;and the Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至8月4日的总回报比较，以及SPDR标普500 ETF和Invesco QQQ Trust（跟踪纳斯达克100指数）的总回报比较：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242f135b3c7cca3cbaae3ee574023c1f\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"577\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF&nbsp;is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.</p><p><blockquote>ETF的方法不同。例如，方舟下一代互联网ETF是唯一一只主动管理的。其他人跟踪一个指数。根据Ark Invest 8月5日发布的信息，它也是唯一一家持有特斯拉公司股票的公司，占投资组合的10.65%。特斯拉是一家电动汽车制造商，但它也可以被视为一家云公司，因为它不断通过互联网分发软件更新，并提供其他基于云的服务。</blockquote></p><p> Another holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.</p><p><blockquote>在五只云ETF中，ARKW独有的另一个持股是华特迪士尼公司，该公司通过其Disney+流媒体服务无疑是一个重要的云参与者，即使该公司没有直接说明其销售额有多少来自该快速增长的部分。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:</p><p><blockquote>作为对ARKW描述的一部分，FactSet表示如下：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“从广义上讲，ARKW的管理者似乎专注于物联网、云计算、数字货币和可穿戴技术等热门词汇。虽然该基金的重点可能是吸引对这些新技术有信心的投资者，但投资组合的实施是一项更加困难的任务：大多数开发这些进步的公司都是大公司，新兴技术仅占总收入的一小部分。因此，很难纯粹接触ARKW的目标技术，因此请务必确认该基金的持股（而不仅仅是其论点）与您对该领域的看法一致。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloud-stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>云库存屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p> Together, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)</p><p><blockquote>上面列出的五只云ETF总共持有147只股票。为了预测2023年的销售增长，我们使用2020年日历的销售预测作为基线，然后查看FactSet调查的分析师对随后三年的一致预测（如果有）。（2020年的数字是估计值，因为许多公司的财年与日历不符。）</blockquote></p><p> To make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.</p><p><blockquote>为了确保我们有一套可靠的估计，我们将该小组限制在FactSet调查的至少5名分析师覆盖的126家公司，这些公司可以获得2020年至2023年的一致销售估计。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:</p><p><blockquote>以下是预计到2023年销售额复合年增长率(CAGR)最高的20家公司：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517a23591cde159fb889ab80abc4bcc6\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"765\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af2cf5b5f9f0ce50f8f023ac7babc7f\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88ebe72e09cb9ce3294269f0a4ae431\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A&nbsp;and Class C&nbsp;shares.</p><p><blockquote>实际上有21只股票上市，包括Zillow Group Inc.的A类和C类股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，该榜单以ARKW持有的股票为主。该基金对云公司有广泛的定义，也关注销售增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.</p><p><blockquote>以下是基于未来12个月共识预测的当前远期市销率、当前市值与2023年预计销售额的比率以及分析师对这些股票的意见摘要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b9c4bf1d8b1abcfa76b7d008a47ad7\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"805\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff191189c5d7d2f31698843734ca3cc\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9543489c4d52d3f1a69dfdcf170115\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，SPDR标普500指数ETF的远期市销率为2.8，2023年预计市销率为2.6。对于QQQ，目前的市盈率为4.7，2023年将降至4.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years<blockquote>预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的20只云股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years<blockquote>预计未来两年销售额增幅最大的20只云股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-06 13:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector</p><p><blockquote>在该行业反弹的推动下，云ETF接近历史新高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78101d8010e186fe4df59b2ef82b5de6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Analysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>分析师预计，提供云服务的公司未来将实现强劲的销售增长。（盖蒂图片社/iStockphoto）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> U.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.</p><p><blockquote>尽管来自中国的传言和德尔塔变异毒株感染人数激增，但美国投资者仍然看涨。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.</p><p><blockquote>云公司——那些处于计算能力向互联网分布式模式转变前沿的公司——预计将在未来几年快速增长，覆盖该领域的五家最大交易所交易基金中有四家即将创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Below is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>下面是这些ETF持有的股票屏幕，显示了预计到2023年销售额增幅最大的股票。在一个许多参与者处于相对早期阶段的行业中，销售额的增长而不是盈利的增长可能是股价的最佳驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> To begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们查看了五只最大的云ETF：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36209ce827d95e822cad5128be8b146a\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.</p><p><blockquote>ETF可能是您采取广泛方法长期参与云革命的最佳方式。如果您对任何ETF感兴趣，您应该查看基金经理的网站。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;and the Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:</p><p><blockquote>以下是截至8月4日的总回报比较，以及SPDR标普500 ETF和Invesco QQQ Trust（跟踪纳斯达克100指数）的总回报比较：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242f135b3c7cca3cbaae3ee574023c1f\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"577\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF&nbsp;is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.</p><p><blockquote>ETF的方法不同。例如，方舟下一代互联网ETF是唯一一只主动管理的。其他人跟踪一个指数。根据Ark Invest 8月5日发布的信息，它也是唯一一家持有特斯拉公司股票的公司，占投资组合的10.65%。特斯拉是一家电动汽车制造商，但它也可以被视为一家云公司，因为它不断通过互联网分发软件更新，并提供其他基于云的服务。</blockquote></p><p> Another holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.</p><p><blockquote>在五只云ETF中，ARKW独有的另一个持股是华特迪士尼公司，该公司通过其Disney+流媒体服务无疑是一个重要的云参与者，即使该公司没有直接说明其销售额有多少来自该快速增长的部分。</blockquote></p><p> As part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:</p><p><blockquote>作为对ARKW描述的一部分，FactSet表示如下：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“从广义上讲，ARKW的管理者似乎专注于物联网、云计算、数字货币和可穿戴技术等热门词汇。虽然该基金的重点可能是吸引对这些新技术有信心的投资者，但投资组合的实施是一项更加困难的任务：大多数开发这些进步的公司都是大公司，新兴技术仅占总收入的一小部分。因此，很难纯粹接触ARKW的目标技术，因此请务必确认该基金的持股（而不仅仅是其论点）与您对该领域的看法一致。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloud-stock screen</b></p><p><blockquote><b>云库存屏幕</b></blockquote></p><p> Together, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)</p><p><blockquote>上面列出的五只云ETF总共持有147只股票。为了预测2023年的销售增长，我们使用2020年日历的销售预测作为基线，然后查看FactSet调查的分析师对随后三年的一致预测（如果有）。（2020年的数字是估计值，因为许多公司的财年与日历不符。）</blockquote></p><p> To make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.</p><p><blockquote>为了确保我们有一套可靠的估计，我们将该小组限制在FactSet调查的至少5名分析师覆盖的126家公司，这些公司可以获得2020年至2023年的一致销售估计。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:</p><p><blockquote>以下是预计到2023年销售额复合年增长率(CAGR)最高的20家公司：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517a23591cde159fb889ab80abc4bcc6\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"765\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af2cf5b5f9f0ce50f8f023ac7babc7f\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88ebe72e09cb9ce3294269f0a4ae431\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A&nbsp;and Class C&nbsp;shares.</p><p><blockquote>实际上有21只股票上市，包括Zillow Group Inc.的A类和C类股票。</blockquote></p><p> It is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，该榜单以ARKW持有的股票为主。该基金对云公司有广泛的定义，也关注销售增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.</p><p><blockquote>以下是基于未来12个月共识预测的当前远期市销率、当前市值与2023年预计销售额的比率以及分析师对这些股票的意见摘要。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b9c4bf1d8b1abcfa76b7d008a47ad7\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"805\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff191189c5d7d2f31698843734ca3cc\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9543489c4d52d3f1a69dfdcf170115\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，SPDR标普500指数ETF的远期市销率为2.8，2023年预计市销率为2.6。对于QQQ，目前的市盈率为4.7，2023年将降至4.3。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","ZG":"Zillow Class A","TSLA":"特斯拉","Z":"Zillow","ADYEY":"Adyen N.V.","LC":"LendingClub","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","SKLZ":"Skillz Inc","ROKU":"Roku Inc","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","MELI":"MercadoLibre","VCYT":"Veracyte Inc","KC":"金山云","SE":"Sea Ltd","PDD":"拼多多","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155656235","content_text":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)\nU.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.\nCloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.\nBelow is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.\nTo begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:\nSource: FactSet\nETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.\nHere’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco QQQ Trust (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:\nSource: FactSet\nThe ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.\nAnother holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.\nAs part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:\n“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”\nCloud-stock screen\nTogether, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)\nTo make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.\nHere are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:\n\nSource: FactSet\nThere are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A and Class C shares.\nIt is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.\nHere are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.\n\nSource: FactSet\nIn comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TDOC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,"CRWD":0.9,"ZG":0.9,"SHOP":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"Z":0.9,"SE":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"ADYEY":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"MELI":0.9,"PINS":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"LC":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"KC":0.9,"SKLZ":0.9,"SNAP":0.9,"VCYT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890283675,"gmtCreate":1628119944797,"gmtModify":1631883935431,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shouldn't ROKU be included in SP500 by now","listText":"Shouldn't ROKU be included in SP500 by now","text":"Shouldn't ROKU be included in SP500 by now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890283675","repostId":"1143555290","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143555290","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628118288,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143555290?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 07:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roku tops earnings expectations but streaming viewing declines<blockquote>Roku盈利超出预期，但流媒体观看量下降</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143555290","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Roku reported better than expected earnings and sales during its second quarter, but shares were fal","content":"<p>Roku reported better than expected earnings and sales during its second quarter, but shares were falling amid concerns about a drop in streaming hours as Covid-19 restrictions relaxed.</p><p><blockquote>Roku公布的第二季度盈利和销售额好于预期，但由于担心随着Covid-19限制放松，流媒体播放时间减少，股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ROKU) reported earnings of 52 cents a share and total revenue of $645.1 million. The latter figure was up 81% year-over-year. Analysts were only expecting earnings of 13 cents a share and sales of $618.8 million, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ROKU）报告每股收益为52美分，总收入为6.451亿美元。后者的数字同比增长了81%。FactSet的数据显示，分析师仅预期每股收益为13美分，销售额为6.188亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The headline figures weren’t enough to send shares higher. The stock was down 8.2% to $385.85 in extended trading. Prior to this earnings report, Roku had averaged&nbsp;an absolute post-earnings move of 16.7%.</p><p><blockquote>总体数据不足以推高股价。该股在盘后交易中下跌8.2%，至385.85美元。在此财报发布之前，Roku的财报后平均绝对涨幅为16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ddf7f6e5fa2a84580c8eb80ecd85df\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though active accounts were up by 1.5 million to 55.1 million from the first quarter, streaming hours of 17.4 billion were down one billion hours from the first quarter. The figure was two billion hours short of consensus estimates at 19.4 billion, according to FactSet. In a letter to shareholders, the company pointed to a consumer shift toward out-of-home entertainment during the second quarter amid pent up demand and loosening Covid-19 restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管活跃账户比第一季度增加了150万，达到5510万，但流媒体时长为174亿小时，比第一季度减少了10亿小时。FactSet的数据显示，这一数字比普遍预期的194亿小时少了20亿小时。该公司在致股东的一封信中指出，由于需求被压抑和Covid-19限制放松，第二季度消费者转向户外娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Average revenue per active user hit $38.46 on a trailing-twelve-month basis, up 46% year-over-year, and ahead of expectations of $35.30, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，过去12个月每活跃用户平均收入达到38.46美元，同比增长46%，高于预期的35.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said tight supply conditions and shipping constraints increased costs across consumer electronics categories. Because Roku didn’t raise prices on its devices, gross margin in the Player segment turned negative for the quarter. The company expects such&nbsp;supply chain constraints&nbsp;and component cost increases to worsen in the second half.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，供应紧张和运输限制增加了消费电子产品类别的成本。由于Roku没有提高其设备的价格，本季度播放器领域的毛利率转为负值。该公司预计，此类供应链限制和零部件成本上涨将在下半年恶化。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Roku expects total net revenue between $675 million and $685 million. Prior to the report, analysts were forecasting sales of $648.6 million. For earnings, Roku’s expectations range from a net loss of $3 million to net income of $7 million. That range is well above the net loss of $27.7 million that analysts were forecasting.</p><p><blockquote>Roku预计第三季度总净收入在6.75亿美元至6.85亿美元之间。在该报告发布之前，分析师预测销售额为6.486亿美元。对于盈利，Roku的预期范围为净亏损300万美元至净利润700万美元。这一范围远高于分析师预测的2770万美元的净亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roku tops earnings expectations but streaming viewing declines<blockquote>Roku盈利超出预期，但流媒体观看量下降</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoku tops earnings expectations but streaming viewing declines<blockquote>Roku盈利超出预期，但流媒体观看量下降</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-05 07:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Roku reported better than expected earnings and sales during its second quarter, but shares were falling amid concerns about a drop in streaming hours as Covid-19 restrictions relaxed.</p><p><blockquote>Roku公布的第二季度盈利和销售额好于预期，但由于担心随着Covid-19限制放松，流媒体播放时间减少，股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The company (ticker: ROKU) reported earnings of 52 cents a share and total revenue of $645.1 million. The latter figure was up 81% year-over-year. Analysts were only expecting earnings of 13 cents a share and sales of $618.8 million, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>该公司（股票代码：ROKU）报告每股收益为52美分，总收入为6.451亿美元。后者的数字同比增长了81%。FactSet的数据显示，分析师仅预期每股收益为13美分，销售额为6.188亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The headline figures weren’t enough to send shares higher. The stock was down 8.2% to $385.85 in extended trading. Prior to this earnings report, Roku had averaged&nbsp;an absolute post-earnings move of 16.7%.</p><p><blockquote>总体数据不足以推高股价。该股在盘后交易中下跌8.2%，至385.85美元。在此财报发布之前，Roku的财报后平均绝对涨幅为16.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ddf7f6e5fa2a84580c8eb80ecd85df\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Though active accounts were up by 1.5 million to 55.1 million from the first quarter, streaming hours of 17.4 billion were down one billion hours from the first quarter. The figure was two billion hours short of consensus estimates at 19.4 billion, according to FactSet. In a letter to shareholders, the company pointed to a consumer shift toward out-of-home entertainment during the second quarter amid pent up demand and loosening Covid-19 restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管活跃账户比第一季度增加了150万，达到5510万，但流媒体时长为174亿小时，比第一季度减少了10亿小时。FactSet的数据显示，这一数字比普遍预期的194亿小时少了20亿小时。该公司在致股东的一封信中指出，由于需求被压抑和Covid-19限制放松，第二季度消费者转向户外娱乐。</blockquote></p><p> Average revenue per active user hit $38.46 on a trailing-twelve-month basis, up 46% year-over-year, and ahead of expectations of $35.30, according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，过去12个月每活跃用户平均收入达到38.46美元，同比增长46%，高于预期的35.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said tight supply conditions and shipping constraints increased costs across consumer electronics categories. Because Roku didn’t raise prices on its devices, gross margin in the Player segment turned negative for the quarter. The company expects such&nbsp;supply chain constraints&nbsp;and component cost increases to worsen in the second half.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，供应紧张和运输限制增加了消费电子产品类别的成本。由于Roku没有提高其设备的价格，本季度播放器领域的毛利率转为负值。该公司预计，此类供应链限制和零部件成本上涨将在下半年恶化。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Roku expects total net revenue between $675 million and $685 million. Prior to the report, analysts were forecasting sales of $648.6 million. For earnings, Roku’s expectations range from a net loss of $3 million to net income of $7 million. That range is well above the net loss of $27.7 million that analysts were forecasting.</p><p><blockquote>Roku预计第三季度总净收入在6.75亿美元至6.85亿美元之间。在该报告发布之前，分析师预测销售额为6.486亿美元。对于盈利，Roku的预期范围为净亏损300万美元至净利润700万美元。这一范围远高于分析师预测的2770万美元的净亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143555290","content_text":"Roku reported better than expected earnings and sales during its second quarter, but shares were falling amid concerns about a drop in streaming hours as Covid-19 restrictions relaxed.\nThe company (ticker: ROKU) reported earnings of 52 cents a share and total revenue of $645.1 million. The latter figure was up 81% year-over-year. Analysts were only expecting earnings of 13 cents a share and sales of $618.8 million, according to FactSet.\nThe headline figures weren’t enough to send shares higher. The stock was down 8.2% to $385.85 in extended trading. Prior to this earnings report, Roku had averaged an absolute post-earnings move of 16.7%.\n\nThough active accounts were up by 1.5 million to 55.1 million from the first quarter, streaming hours of 17.4 billion were down one billion hours from the first quarter. The figure was two billion hours short of consensus estimates at 19.4 billion, according to FactSet. In a letter to shareholders, the company pointed to a consumer shift toward out-of-home entertainment during the second quarter amid pent up demand and loosening Covid-19 restrictions.\nAverage revenue per active user hit $38.46 on a trailing-twelve-month basis, up 46% year-over-year, and ahead of expectations of $35.30, according to FactSet.\nThe company also said tight supply conditions and shipping constraints increased costs across consumer electronics categories. Because Roku didn’t raise prices on its devices, gross margin in the Player segment turned negative for the quarter. The company expects such supply chain constraints and component cost increases to worsen in the second half.\nFor the third quarter, Roku expects total net revenue between $675 million and $685 million. Prior to the report, analysts were forecasting sales of $648.6 million. For earnings, Roku’s expectations range from a net loss of $3 million to net income of $7 million. That range is well above the net loss of $27.7 million that analysts were forecasting.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":835820863,"gmtCreate":1629704930652,"gmtModify":1633683061497,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835820863","repostId":"1192946234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192946234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629704548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192946234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 15:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192946234","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent ","content":"<p>When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储周五取消杰克逊霍尔研讨会的亲自计划时，它发出了投资者应该注意的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is&nbsp;also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.&nbsp; “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue&nbsp;ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases&nbsp;sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Federal Reserve Canceling Its In-Person Jackson Hole Retreat Matters<blockquote>为什么美联储取消杰克逊霍尔亲自务虚会很重要</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 15:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储周五取消杰克逊霍尔研讨会的亲自计划时，它发出了投资者应该注意的信号。</blockquote></p><p> “Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”</p><p><blockquote>堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在其网站上的一份声明中表示，“由于最近Covid-19健康风险水平上升”，其年度经济政策会议将于8月27日星期五虚拟召开。此举出台之际，全国范围内的感染人数不断上升，怀俄明州提顿县（通常有数十名央行行长、政策制定者和经济学家聚集在那里参加活动）将其传播风险级别改为“高”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.</p><p><blockquote>美联储取消自己的现场活动的决定代表了随着对病毒的担忧加剧，经济活动将出现更广泛的回落。运输安全管理局的最新数据显示，旅行放缓，周五通过TSA检查站的人数较7月中旬的近期高点下降了10%。与此同时，餐厅预订商OpenTable的数据反映出预订量再次下降。牛津经济研究院的经济学家表示，随着消费者变得更加谨慎和整体流动性下降，他们的复苏跟踪系统（由大约两打指标组成）已经陷入停滞。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s decision is&nbsp;also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的决定也实时反映了官员们如何看待经济最大的通配符。自疫情爆发以来，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济的发展轨迹将取决于病毒的进程。在上周三的新闻发布会上，他表示，连续的新冠疫情对经济的影响正在减弱，但他承认德尔塔变异毒株和未来突变带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> “As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.&nbsp; “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“只要新冠病毒在那里蔓延，只要有时间和空间来开发新毒株，没有人会真正安全。”他指出，从室内餐饮到学校开学，任何活动的减少都可能会给经济带来压力。“我们不太清楚这可能会如何发展，所以我们只会仔细监控，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> The shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.</p><p><blockquote>向虚拟研讨会的转变对当地经济产生了影响，尽管很小。杰克逊霍尔四季度假村和住宅的区域营销总监科里·卡尔森表示，由于美联储改变计划，他的酒店已有大量取消预订。“这肯定会对当地经济产生短期影响，”他说，并补充说，该活动通常会吸引大量研讨会与会者和记者进行采访和广播演讲。与此同时，杰克逊霍尔百汇酒店(Parkway Inn)的一名前台工作人员表示，随着Covid病例激增，上周早些时候，客人取消了预订。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue&nbsp;ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在鲍威尔周五上午发表讲话之前，计划的改变给了投资者一个鸽派线索。</blockquote></p><p> Investors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，华尔街的投资者和经济学家一直在关注杰克逊霍尔峰会，以了解美联储计划开始逐步减少为应对疫情而推出的紧急债券购买计划的最新情况。上周公布的美联储7月会议纪要显示，官员们开始讨论何时以及如何缩减每月1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买量，尽管官员们在何时开始减少这些购买量以及应该以多大的力度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> It is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases&nbsp;sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>现在很明显，自7月政策会议以来的几周里，官员们对经济复苏变得更加不安。已经倾向于推迟削减购买的央行行长可能会辩称，不断上升的感染率和住院率值得进一步保持耐心，而那些持观望态度的人有理由加入鸽派阵营。就连达拉斯联储主席Robert Kaplan——第一位公开表示美联储应尽早开始削减资产购买的官员——最近也表示，如果德尔塔变异毒株阻碍经济复苏，他可能会改变观点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.</p><p><blockquote>当政策制定者自己取消旅行计划时，很难说新冠病例的增加没有影响经济复苏。担心9月份正式宣布缩减规模的投资者应该会从美联储选择持有虚拟杰克逊洞中找到一些缓解——尽管另一方面是对经济本身状况的看跌信息，无论是无意还是无意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-retreat-51629577071?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192946234","content_text":"When the Federal Reserve on Friday scrapped in-person plans for its Jackson Hole symposium, it sent a signal investors should heed.\n“Due to the recently-elevated Covid-19 health risk level,” the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank said in a statement on its website, its annual economic policy conference will convene virtually on Friday, August 27. The move comes as infections rise nationwide and after Teton County, Wyo., where dozens of central bankers, policymakers and economists normally gather for the event, changed its transmission risk level to “high.”\nThe Fed’s decision to cancel its own in-person event is representative of a broader pullback in economic activity as virus concerns mount. Fresh data from the Transportation Security Administration show a slowdown in travel, with the number of people passing through TSA checkpoints down 10% on Friday from a recent high in mid-July. Meanwhile, data from restaurant-booker OpenTable reflect a renewed decline in reservations. Economists at Oxford Economics say their recovery tracker, a mashup of about two dozen indicators, has stalled as consumers become more cautious and overall mobility declines.\nThe Fed’s decision is also a real-time reflection of how officials view the economy’s biggest wildcard. Since the pandemic’s onset, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the path of the economy will depend on the course of the virus.In his press conference last Wednesday, he said successive Covid waves have had diminishing economic impact, but he acknowledged the risk posed by the Delta variant and future mutations.\n\n“As long as Covid is running loose out there, as long as there’s time and space for the development of new strains, no one’s really finally safe,” Powell said, noting that any pull back in activity, from indoor dining to school openings, may weigh on the economy.  “We don’t have a strong sense of how that might work out, so we’ll just be monitoring it carefully,” he said.\nThe shift to a virtual symposium is having an effect, if small, on the local economy. Cory Carlson, regional director of marketing at the Four Seasons Resort and Residences in Jackson Hole, said his hotel has had a slew of cancellations due to the Fed’s change of plans. “This definitely has a short-term impact on the local economy,” he says, adding that the event typically brings a swarm of symposium attendees and journalists conducting interviews and broadcasting speeches. A desk worker at the Parkway Inn of Jackson Hole, meanwhile, said guests pulled reservations early last week as Covid cases swung higher.\nAt the same time,the change of plans gives investors a dovish clue ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday morning.\nInvestors and economists across Wall Street have for months had an eye toward the Jackson Hole summit for an update on the Fed’s plans to begin winding down the emergency bond-buying program it launched in response to the pandemic. Minutes released last week from the Fed’s July meeting showed officials started debating when and how to taper the $120 billion in monthly Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases, though officials were split on when to begin reducing those purchases and how aggressively they should do so.\nIt is now clear that in the weeks since the July policy meeting, officials have grown more skittish about the recovery. Central bankers already inclined to delay purchase reductions are likely to argue increasing infections and hospitalization rates warrant further patience, while those on the fence have a reason to join the dovish camp.Even Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan–the first official to publicly say the Fed should start cutting asset purchases sooner than later–recently said he may change his view if the Delta variant stalls the economic recovery.\nIt’s hard to argue rising Covid cases aren’t already affecting the recovery when policy makers themselves are scrapping travel plans. Investors worried about an official September taper announcement should find some relief in the Fed’s choice to hold a virtual Jackson Hole–though the flipside is a bearish message, inadvertent or otherwise, on the state of the economy itself.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836219675,"gmtCreate":1629499074297,"gmtModify":1633684495112,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836219675","repostId":"1191201221","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838172692,"gmtCreate":1629383124916,"gmtModify":1633685252541,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838172692","repostId":"1115729576","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806404111,"gmtCreate":1627686891533,"gmtModify":1633757212142,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806404111","repostId":"2155915751","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839909999,"gmtCreate":1629112289311,"gmtModify":1633687333871,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks","listText":"Like please thanks","text":"Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839909999","repostId":"2159248377","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809747230,"gmtCreate":1627394648120,"gmtModify":1633765419428,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not chinese tech stocks","listText":"Not chinese tech stocks","text":"Not chinese tech stocks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809747230","repostId":"1154449552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141543639,"gmtCreate":1625882477321,"gmtModify":1633936444987,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Definitely undervalued","listText":"Definitely undervalued","text":"Definitely undervalued","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141543639","repostId":"2150326565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833797126,"gmtCreate":1629261374365,"gmtModify":1633686130487,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like thanks","listText":"Like thanks","text":"Like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833797126","repostId":"1142199794","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808589028,"gmtCreate":1627601793564,"gmtModify":1633757973224,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808589028","repostId":"1154593458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177110735,"gmtCreate":1627185929527,"gmtModify":1633767331930,"author":{"id":"3576100208689627","authorId":"3576100208689627","name":"SunbearInv","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576100208689627","authorIdStr":"3576100208689627"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177110735","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}