卡卡就是发威的个人主页 - 老虎社区

卡卡就是发威

卡卡就是发威

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卡卡就是发威

2021-02-20

$云米科技(VIOT)$快下来到10块我买

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-18

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$就问下为啥这么多中国人喜欢搞大麻

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$我刚卖你就造车你不能早点说吗?

卡卡就是发威

2021-05-17

什么是庄家什么是主力不就是市值管理的吗

抱歉，原内容已删除

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-17

$Denison Mines Corp(DNN)$我手点错了1.49上的车难受😣完蛋了

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-26

$云米科技(VIOT)$完蛋了吗这股?哥哥我17买的你加油啊

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-17

$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$狗庄还压价吸筹码

卡卡就是发威

2021-02-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$每次都跳水你真是个弟弟雷军你是真不行

卡卡就是发威

2021-08-30

a股有价值投资吗看看三一半年赚100亿其他赚几千万甚至年年亏损的都比他高易主席不看看?

抱歉，原内容已删除

卡卡就是发威

2021-08-11

截图上的红线是你的成本线吗

油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴集团将投入1000亿元助力共同富裕\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-02 17:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://zj.zjol.com.cn/news.html?id=1722095><strong>浙江新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月2日，记者从阿里巴巴集团获悉，阿里已启动“阿里巴巴助力共同富裕十大行动”，将在2025年前累计投入1000亿元，助力共同富裕。为促进十大行动落地，阿里将成立一个专门的常设机构。\n据了解，阿里助力共同富裕十大行动将围绕五大方向展开，分别是科技创新、经济发展、高质量就业、弱势群体关爱和共同富裕发展基金，行动将包括：\n一是加大科技投入，扶持欠发达地区数字化建设。如设立科技产业基金，推动欠发达地区...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://zj.zjol.com.cn/news.html?id=1722095\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e0eb6c0d2386d465d375504e74c84e","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://zj.zjol.com.cn/news.html?id=1722095","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143904372","content_text":"9月2日，记者从阿里巴巴集团获悉，阿里已启动“阿里巴巴助力共同富裕十大行动”，将在2025年前累计投入1000亿元，助力共同富裕。为促进十大行动落地，阿里将成立一个专门的常设机构。\n据了解，阿里助力共同富裕十大行动将围绕五大方向展开，分别是科技创新、经济发展、高质量就业、弱势群体关爱和共同富裕发展基金，行动将包括：\n一是加大科技投入，扶持欠发达地区数字化建设。如设立科技产业基金，推动欠发达地区数字化建设以及与实体经济深度融合，设立科技人才基金和奖励计划等。\n二是扶持中小微企业成长。降低中小微企业日常运营成本，提供经营补贴等，推动中小微企业健康发展。\n三是助推农业产业化建设。如联合地方政府，建设农产品集采中心，打造一批区域公用品牌等。\n四是支持中小企业出海。如推动“跨境贸易绿色通道”建设等。\n五是助力高质量就业。启动年轻人创业扶持计划，提供多样化的职业技能培训等。\n六是帮助提高灵活用工群体的福利保障。如提高快递员、骑手、网约车司机等商业保险的保障等。\n七是促进城乡数字生活均等化。如探索共建智慧社区、美丽乡村等。\n八是缩小数字鸿沟，加强弱势人群服务与保障。如推动更多特殊人群“云上就业”，优化老年人数字生活体验，建立儿童重疾救助基金等。\n九是支持基层医疗能力提升。专项投入建设村级医疗站，打造云上“医共体”等。\n十是成立200亿共同富裕发展基金。用以助推共同富裕示范区建设，为全国实现共同富裕进行探索示范。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811110650,"gmtCreate":1630296198570,"gmtModify":1704958000554,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a股有价值投资吗看看三一半年赚100亿其他赚几千万甚至年年亏损的都比他高易主席不看看?","listText":"a股有价值投资吗看看三一半年赚100亿其他赚几千万甚至年年亏损的都比他高易主席不看看?","text":"a股有价值投资吗看看三一半年赚100亿其他赚几千万甚至年年亏损的都比他高易主席不看看?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811110650","repostId":"1181092397","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810138094,"gmtCreate":1629950584318,"gmtModify":1629950584318,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收到马上接盘","listText":"收到马上接盘","text":"收到马上接盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810138094","repostId":"2162065693","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":892400941,"gmtCreate":1628678867983,"gmtModify":1628678867983,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"截图上的红线是你的成本线吗","listText":"截图上的红线是你的成本线吗","text":"截图上的红线是你的成本线吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892400941","repostId":"1180460387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180460387","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628677506,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180460387?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 18:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180460387","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。","content":"<p>据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。</p>\n<p>拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”</p>\n<p>WTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f3fdb4bc69110a33d9d2bc155f97ac7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-11 18:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。</p>\n<p>拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”</p>\n<p>WTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f3fdb4bc69110a33d9d2bc155f97ac7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180460387","content_text":"据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。\n拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”\nWTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":806043238,"gmtCreate":1627619887324,"gmtModify":1627621250034,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都去买宁指数鸡狗不套现吗","listText":"都去买宁指数鸡狗不套现吗","text":"都去买宁指数鸡狗不套现吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806043238","repostId":"1165462571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165462571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627616232,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165462571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 11:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国产业大升级，“茅退宁进”已是注定的趋势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165462571","media":"追寻价值之路","summary":"宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的故事讲，茅则失去了继续拔估值的逻辑。","content":"<p>作者：燕翔</p>\n<p>宁指数总体是成长属性（ROE持续向上），盈利景气周期加速向上的过程中，既赚盈利的钱也赚估值的钱，ROE向上本身会推动估值继续上行；茅指数总体是价值属性（ROE较高但基本走平），这种情况一般只赚业绩的钱不赚估值的钱，ROE走平估值缺乏继续抬升的盈利逻辑。去年全球货币大放水，无论茅指数还是宁指数估值都显著抬升，这是分母的逻辑，今年市场分母的逻辑没有了，宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的故事讲，茅则失去了继续拔估值的逻辑甚至估值还有高位回落的压力。</p>\n<p><b>往后看，我们认为市场最明确的投资方向是中国经济的产业升级，成长属性更强的宁指数（估值也更高），可能比价值属性更强的茅指数（估值也更低），机会更大。</b></p>\n<p>宁指数和茅指数去年都有非常好的股价表现，宁指数去年全年涨幅高达189%、茅指数涨幅也有109%。但从2021年4月份调整结束以来，两个指数走势出现了明显的分化（具体走势参见图1），宁指数继续高歌猛进一路上涨，茅指数则失去了去年的风光，4月份以后一路走平没有回到年内高点。截至2021年7月28日，宁指数目前全年累计上涨50%涨幅巨大，茅指数则目前全年累计下跌4%，两者分化巨大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95b662345a5a9efe89df86fba146a4d6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"726\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>对比宁指数和茅指数的指数成分股样本，目前宁指数的成分股数量是25个、茅指数的成分股数量更多一点有43个，这其中有16家公司是两个指数的交集，既属于宁指数也属于茅指数，分别是：宁德时代、比亚迪、迈瑞医疗、隆基股份、药明康德、爱尔眼科、韦尔股份、片仔癀、汇川技术、亿纬锂能、北方华创、爱美客、华熙生物、科沃斯、通策医疗、石头科技。 从两个指数的市值行业分布来看，还是有比较大的差异的。宁指数涉及的行业一共只有6个（具体分布参见图2），市值高度分布在电气设备和医药生物两个行业，其中电气设备行业市值占指数总市值的比重高达38%，医药生物占比也有34%，这两个行业加起来占了指数超过70%的市值权重。宁指数其他涉及的行业还包括电子（市值占比11%）、汽车（市值占比9%）、机械设备（市值占比4%）、化工（市值占比4%）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/319f800e26e689f1183f374ae2c1f571\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"783\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>茅指数成分股较多涉及的行业也明显更多，一共涉及16个行业。其中市值占比最大的是食品饮料行业，占比达25%，这也是茅指数与宁指数构成中主要的区别，食品饮料行业在茅指数中是第一大行业，而在宁指数中却没有。茅指数中占比第二和第三的行业是医药生物和电气设备，这与宁指数权重最大的两个行业一样，但占比数明显更低，分别只有16%和13%，茅指数其他涉及的行业还包括电子、银行、家用电器、农林牧渔、汽车、机械设备、休闲服务、公用事业、化工、非银金融、计算机、建筑材料、轻工制造（具体分布参见图3）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/389a5d1c044cdebd6a564a75c3ac30c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从两者的成长性来看，2020年Q2以来盈利增速都很高（具体参见图4）。相比而言，宁指数的盈利增速更高一些，2020年二季度到四季度宁指数的单季度盈利增速明显更高，茅指数由于去年一季度负增长基数较低，今年一季度的盈利增速大幅回升，比宁指数稍微高一点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f21ffbe7c5d59f1f92352b7d586bf559\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"735\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如果说用盈利增速（YOY）看两个指数的景气周期趋势不是太清楚的话，那么用ROE看则一目了然。这里我们用整体法计算了两个指数的季度ROE（滚动四个季度，即ttm4）。图5报告了宁指数和茅指数ROE的趋势变化情况，在图中宁指数的ROE数值在左轴显示，而茅指数的ROE数值在右轴显示。为了避免坐标轴不同产生的视觉干扰影响判断，图5中左轴和右轴的数据波动区间是一样的，都是10%，只是绝对值不同。 图5中可以看出两个重要特点， 一是茅指数的ROE绝对值比宁指数明显要高，目前最新的数据2021年一季度茅指数的四个季度滚动ROE要达到20.6%，而与之对比，宁指数ROE的绝对值水平要低一点，2021年一季度大概在16%不到一点。 第二个特点更加重要，那就是宁指数的ROE变化趋势是快速向上的，从2020年一季度的12.3%最近四个季度快速上行，至2021年一季度达到15.9%。而茅指数的ROE虽然最近几个季度也有小幅上升，但并没有超过2018年到2019年间的高点，趋势上看总体是走平的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcde8beac37602d03bbe49e21689acd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>宁指数ROE趋势快速向上，说明它是成长属性，景气周期加速上行。茅指数ROE绝对数较高趋势走平，说明它是价值属性。</b></p>\n<p>如果更进一步，从两个指数未来的盈利预测情况来看，可以发现宁指数2021年和2022年的盈利增速一致预期分别高达45%和33%，而对比之下茅指数2021年和2022年的一致预期增速只有24%和16%。 从理论上来说，ROE和YOY（盈利增速）的关系，好比经济学中平均成本与边际成本的关系，当边际成本超过平均成本时，平均成本会进一步向上。从理论上来说，在不考虑分红的情况下，如果下一年企业的YOY高于ROE，则ROE会进一步向上；如果YOY低于ROE，则ROE会向下；如果企业100%分红，那么只要盈利增速是0%，ROE下一年也保持不变。 在目前的盈利增速一致预期下，这意味着宁指数的ROE还会继续向上，而茅指数的ROE总体是大致走平的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0fadfd42fb22c0725b06762eecc8a75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在此前的报告中，我们讨论过这种“成长属性”和“价值属性”在投资上的区别： ROE趋势向上的板块，是典型的景气周期向上的板块。因为ROE是向上的，所以理论上估值也应该向上，这种情况下，一定是既赚业绩的钱，也赚估值的钱。换言之，企业ROE向上是其拔估值的盈利逻辑。这种情况下，可以说基本上是不看估值的，因为既然ROE没有见顶，估值顶也无从判断，ROE的拐点多数情况下就是行情的拐点。 ROE基本走平的板块，不管ROE本身绝对值多少，总体上这种品种基本上属于类固收资产，能赚业绩的钱，赚不了估值的钱。因为只能赚业绩的钱，所以对于这类资产的投资，是要看估值的，因为ROE基本走平估值中枢总体上是不变的，买入时估值高了就会降低未来收益率，反之买入时估值低则会提高未来收益率。这种情况下，上市公司没有拔估值的盈利逻辑，如果估值持续抬升，更多可能是分母层面的流动性逻辑。 回到当下A股的情况，去年全球货币大放水，无论茅指数还是宁指数估值都显著抬升，这是分母的逻辑，今年市场分母的逻辑没有了，宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的故事讲，茅则失去了继续拔估值的逻辑甚至估值还有高位回落的压力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ae4fde0ea07f2960acb5e0b2f64c7c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>展望未来，我们认为市场最明确的投资方向是中国经济的产业升级，成长属性更强的宁指数（估值也更高），可能比价值属性更强的茅指数（估值也更低），机会更大。</p>\n<p>文中所有涉及个股标的，仅为公开数据统计汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级。</p>\n<p>风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动、历史经验不代表未来。</p>","source":"zxjzzl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国产业大升级，“茅退宁进”已是注定的趋势</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国产业大升级，“茅退宁进”已是注定的趋势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 11:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0MjAwOTA2MQ==&mid=2247502461&idx=1&sn=64cc6bc4ca75fe4844cef2e6412622a6&chksm=fb23b9f7cc5430e14f7a943aa89b63540dc36cfb0143f5fc4a542c9b9586db3e4e545d2f2c85&scene=126&&sessionid=1627574544><strong>追寻价值之路</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：燕翔\n宁指数总体是成长属性（ROE持续向上），盈利景气周期加速向上的过程中，既赚盈利的钱也赚估值的钱，ROE向上本身会推动估值继续上行；茅指数总体是价值属性（ROE较高但基本走平），这种情况一般只赚业绩的钱不赚估值的钱，ROE走平估值缺乏继续抬升的盈利逻辑。去年全球货币大放水，无论茅指数还是宁指数估值都显著抬升，这是分母的逻辑，今年市场分母的逻辑没有了，宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0MjAwOTA2MQ==&mid=2247502461&idx=1&sn=64cc6bc4ca75fe4844cef2e6412622a6&chksm=fb23b9f7cc5430e14f7a943aa89b63540dc36cfb0143f5fc4a542c9b9586db3e4e545d2f2c85&scene=126&&sessionid=1627574544\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983e0432c72ee1117f6c5b8a19ed6e25","relate_stocks":{"300750":"宁德时代","600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU0MjAwOTA2MQ==&mid=2247502461&idx=1&sn=64cc6bc4ca75fe4844cef2e6412622a6&chksm=fb23b9f7cc5430e14f7a943aa89b63540dc36cfb0143f5fc4a542c9b9586db3e4e545d2f2c85&scene=126&&sessionid=1627574544","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165462571","content_text":"作者：燕翔\n宁指数总体是成长属性（ROE持续向上），盈利景气周期加速向上的过程中，既赚盈利的钱也赚估值的钱，ROE向上本身会推动估值继续上行；茅指数总体是价值属性（ROE较高但基本走平），这种情况一般只赚业绩的钱不赚估值的钱，ROE走平估值缺乏继续抬升的盈利逻辑。去年全球货币大放水，无论茅指数还是宁指数估值都显著抬升，这是分母的逻辑，今年市场分母的逻辑没有了，宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的故事讲，茅则失去了继续拔估值的逻辑甚至估值还有高位回落的压力。\n往后看，我们认为市场最明确的投资方向是中国经济的产业升级，成长属性更强的宁指数（估值也更高），可能比价值属性更强的茅指数（估值也更低），机会更大。\n宁指数和茅指数去年都有非常好的股价表现，宁指数去年全年涨幅高达189%、茅指数涨幅也有109%。但从2021年4月份调整结束以来，两个指数走势出现了明显的分化（具体走势参见图1），宁指数继续高歌猛进一路上涨，茅指数则失去了去年的风光，4月份以后一路走平没有回到年内高点。截至2021年7月28日，宁指数目前全年累计上涨50%涨幅巨大，茅指数则目前全年累计下跌4%，两者分化巨大。\n\n对比宁指数和茅指数的指数成分股样本，目前宁指数的成分股数量是25个、茅指数的成分股数量更多一点有43个，这其中有16家公司是两个指数的交集，既属于宁指数也属于茅指数，分别是：宁德时代、比亚迪、迈瑞医疗、隆基股份、药明康德、爱尔眼科、韦尔股份、片仔癀、汇川技术、亿纬锂能、北方华创、爱美客、华熙生物、科沃斯、通策医疗、石头科技。 从两个指数的市值行业分布来看，还是有比较大的差异的。宁指数涉及的行业一共只有6个（具体分布参见图2），市值高度分布在电气设备和医药生物两个行业，其中电气设备行业市值占指数总市值的比重高达38%，医药生物占比也有34%，这两个行业加起来占了指数超过70%的市值权重。宁指数其他涉及的行业还包括电子（市值占比11%）、汽车（市值占比9%）、机械设备（市值占比4%）、化工（市值占比4%）。\n\n茅指数成分股较多涉及的行业也明显更多，一共涉及16个行业。其中市值占比最大的是食品饮料行业，占比达25%，这也是茅指数与宁指数构成中主要的区别，食品饮料行业在茅指数中是第一大行业，而在宁指数中却没有。茅指数中占比第二和第三的行业是医药生物和电气设备，这与宁指数权重最大的两个行业一样，但占比数明显更低，分别只有16%和13%，茅指数其他涉及的行业还包括电子、银行、家用电器、农林牧渔、汽车、机械设备、休闲服务、公用事业、化工、非银金融、计算机、建筑材料、轻工制造（具体分布参见图3）。\n\n从两者的成长性来看，2020年Q2以来盈利增速都很高（具体参见图4）。相比而言，宁指数的盈利增速更高一些，2020年二季度到四季度宁指数的单季度盈利增速明显更高，茅指数由于去年一季度负增长基数较低，今年一季度的盈利增速大幅回升，比宁指数稍微高一点。\n\n如果说用盈利增速（YOY）看两个指数的景气周期趋势不是太清楚的话，那么用ROE看则一目了然。这里我们用整体法计算了两个指数的季度ROE（滚动四个季度，即ttm4）。图5报告了宁指数和茅指数ROE的趋势变化情况，在图中宁指数的ROE数值在左轴显示，而茅指数的ROE数值在右轴显示。为了避免坐标轴不同产生的视觉干扰影响判断，图5中左轴和右轴的数据波动区间是一样的，都是10%，只是绝对值不同。 图5中可以看出两个重要特点， 一是茅指数的ROE绝对值比宁指数明显要高，目前最新的数据2021年一季度茅指数的四个季度滚动ROE要达到20.6%，而与之对比，宁指数ROE的绝对值水平要低一点，2021年一季度大概在16%不到一点。 第二个特点更加重要，那就是宁指数的ROE变化趋势是快速向上的，从2020年一季度的12.3%最近四个季度快速上行，至2021年一季度达到15.9%。而茅指数的ROE虽然最近几个季度也有小幅上升，但并没有超过2018年到2019年间的高点，趋势上看总体是走平的。\n宁指数ROE趋势快速向上，说明它是成长属性，景气周期加速上行。茅指数ROE绝对数较高趋势走平，说明它是价值属性。\n如果更进一步，从两个指数未来的盈利预测情况来看，可以发现宁指数2021年和2022年的盈利增速一致预期分别高达45%和33%，而对比之下茅指数2021年和2022年的一致预期增速只有24%和16%。 从理论上来说，ROE和YOY（盈利增速）的关系，好比经济学中平均成本与边际成本的关系，当边际成本超过平均成本时，平均成本会进一步向上。从理论上来说，在不考虑分红的情况下，如果下一年企业的YOY高于ROE，则ROE会进一步向上；如果YOY低于ROE，则ROE会向下；如果企业100%分红，那么只要盈利增速是0%，ROE下一年也保持不变。 在目前的盈利增速一致预期下，这意味着宁指数的ROE还会继续向上，而茅指数的ROE总体是大致走平的。\n\n在此前的报告中，我们讨论过这种“成长属性”和“价值属性”在投资上的区别： ROE趋势向上的板块，是典型的景气周期向上的板块。因为ROE是向上的，所以理论上估值也应该向上，这种情况下，一定是既赚业绩的钱，也赚估值的钱。换言之，企业ROE向上是其拔估值的盈利逻辑。这种情况下，可以说基本上是不看估值的，因为既然ROE没有见顶，估值顶也无从判断，ROE的拐点多数情况下就是行情的拐点。 ROE基本走平的板块，不管ROE本身绝对值多少，总体上这种品种基本上属于类固收资产，能赚业绩的钱，赚不了估值的钱。因为只能赚业绩的钱，所以对于这类资产的投资，是要看估值的，因为ROE基本走平估值中枢总体上是不变的，买入时估值高了就会降低未来收益率，反之买入时估值低则会提高未来收益率。这种情况下，上市公司没有拔估值的盈利逻辑，如果估值持续抬升，更多可能是分母层面的流动性逻辑。 回到当下A股的情况，去年全球货币大放水，无论茅指数还是宁指数估值都显著抬升，这是分母的逻辑，今年市场分母的逻辑没有了，宁指数依然可以有盈利加速上行拔估值的故事讲，茅则失去了继续拔估值的逻辑甚至估值还有高位回落的压力。\n\n展望未来，我们认为市场最明确的投资方向是中国经济的产业升级，成长属性更强的宁指数（估值也更高），可能比价值属性更强的茅指数（估值也更低），机会更大。\n文中所有涉及个股标的，仅为公开数据统计汇总，不构成任何盈利预测和投资评级。\n风险提示：宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动、历史经验不代表未来。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300750":0.9,"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183062466,"gmtCreate":1623294662655,"gmtModify":1623294662655,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"动力源?蓝字让我买?","listText":"动力源?蓝字让我买?","text":"动力源?蓝字让我买?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183062466","repostId":"1111270056","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192424519,"gmtCreate":1621224345731,"gmtModify":1621224345731,"author":{"id":"3576123735454639","authorId":"3576123735454639","name":"卡卡就是发威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d074638349745381c25c7a9c8b454a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576123735454639","idStr":"3576123735454639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么是庄家 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18:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180460387","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。","content":"<p>据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。</p>\n<p>拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”</p>\n<p>WTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f3fdb4bc69110a33d9d2bc155f97ac7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价短线急跌，美国白宫呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-11 18:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。</p>\n<p>拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”</p>\n<p>WTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f3fdb4bc69110a33d9d2bc155f97ac7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4e05ec77979a5299f730b563d0cf690","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180460387","content_text":"据CNBC报道，白宫将呼吁欧佩克+提高石油产量，以应对不断攀升的汽油价格。\n拜登政府的官员本周与沙特、阿联酋和其他国家的代表进行了交谈。美国国家安全顾问沙利文表示，“我们正与欧佩克+相关成员国就竞争性市场在定价中的重要性进行接触。竞争激烈的能源市场将确保可靠和稳定的能源供应，欧佩克+必须采取更多措施支持复苏。”\nWTI原油5分钟内下跌1美元/桶，跌幅达1.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}