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Charlene_Wee

Charlene_Wee

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2021-11-26

Hmm ..

7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>美国银行称感恩节风险最大的7只股票</blockquote>

2021-10-15

Nice

Tesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。即使是仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote>

2021-10-09

Like pls

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2021-10-06

Will it sustain?

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2021-10-05

Watching

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2021-10-05

Hmm

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2021-10-03

Hmm

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2021-10-02

Interesting

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2021-09-26

Like pls

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2021-09-26

Like pls

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2021-09-22

Done

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2021-09-19

Dangerous thinking

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2021-09-14

$UiPath(PATH)$looking at this

2021-09-13

Like

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2021-09-13

Like

US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Liked

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-06

Like pls

GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-04

Like

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2021-09-02

Ok

Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-08-30

Still ok

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(NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司包括金宝汤公司(CPB)、通用磨坊(GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司(KHC)、康尼格拉品牌(CAG)、荷美尔食品公司(HRL)、味好美公司(MKC)和鸭角投资组合公司(NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“我们研究了公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的敞口：火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、绿豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点以及葡萄酒。”“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL和NAPA的风险敞口最大。KHC和NAPA是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>接触感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”商品拥有更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天饮酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖红薯、传统的或植物性的选择，随着通货膨胀打击食品价格，他们可能会支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格将上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行全球研究部高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩·斯皮兰(Bryan Spillane)告诉雅虎财经直播：“当你观察更多的中心食品时，通常情况下，历史上并没有太多的定价权。”（上面的视频）。“但今年不同寻常的是，已经出现了。尤其是食品公司，年中就开始涨价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，也就是说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始抵制，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为表明消费者感受到了压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的兴趣</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>上涨或下跌潜力最大的公司是金宝汤，美国银行给予该公司“表现不佳”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“坎贝尔正在为一些问题而苦苦挣扎，”斯皮兰说。“一是他们正在经历大幅通货膨胀。他们的产品组合稍微偏向于……中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面可能存在一些敏感性的领域。”</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤公司还直接和间接面临劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味料制造商味好美公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为84美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰表示，味好美“仍以溢价估值交易”，并补充说，虽然它受益于人们在过去18个月里更多地在家做饭，但“在某个时候，随着情况放缓，你会看到这种情况减少在家做饭的行为。这将给味好美带来悬念。”</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时[HSY]处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境方面。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“这个类别仍在强劲增长，仍然有很多产品创新，并且已经证明了定价能力，我们认为好时的设置非常好，甚至能够保护利润率，也许有可能随着我们经历一些通货膨胀而增长利润率，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉灶馅料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为46美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>分析师写道：“我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为KHC处于有利地位，可以捕捉与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的消费者需求模式变化相关的增长，但这些增长被高于平均水平的债务水平所抵消。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 stocks with the most Thanksgiving exposure, according to Bank of America<blockquote>美国银行称感恩节风险最大的7只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-25 22:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and&nbsp;incur higher costs.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节盛宴可能会吸引比去年更多的人群，并产生更高的成本。</blockquote></p><p> A recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近的一份报告详细介绍了在供应链瓶颈、通货膨胀、挥之不去的新冠疫情担忧、低库存和消费者行为不断变化的情况下，哪些公司对顶级节日菜肴的敞口最大。</blockquote></p><p> Those companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick &amp; Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).</p><p><blockquote>这些公司包括金宝汤公司(CPB)、通用磨坊(GIS)、卡夫亨氏公司(KHC)、康尼格拉品牌(CAG)、荷美尔食品公司(HRL)、味好美公司(MKC)和鸭角投资组合公司(NAPA)。</blockquote></p><p> \"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac &amp; cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示：“我们研究了公司对感恩节顶级菜肴的敞口：火鸡、馅料、晚餐卷、肉汁、绿豆砂锅、土豆、通心粉和奶酪甜点以及葡萄酒。”“总体而言，CPB、GIS、KHC、CAG、MKC、HRL和NAPA的风险敞口最大。KHC和NAPA是我们在该组中最喜欢的股票。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39aa902f366c0bd07e076520c33cdf52\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Key companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>接触感恩节大餐趋势的主要公司。（来源：美国银行）感恩节“盘子中心”商品拥有更多定价权</span></p></blockquote></p><p> People appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，人们似乎再次聚集在桌子周围，因为社交媒体对话的数据发现，提及“疫苗”的人数有所增加，而提及“FaceTime”、“社交距离”和“取消”的人数有所下降。（“朋友聚会”和“白天饮酒”也有所增加。）</blockquote></p><p> And whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费者选择火鸡还是火腿、土豆泥还是棉花糖红薯、传统的或植物性的选择，随着通货膨胀打击食品价格，他们可能会支付更多费用。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index&nbsp;projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.</p><p><blockquote>美国农业局感恩节成本指数预计2021年将同比增长14%，其中火鸡价格将上涨24%。</blockquote></p><p> “When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行全球研究部高级食品和饮料分析师布莱恩·斯皮兰(Bryan Spillane)告诉雅虎财经直播：“当你观察更多的中心食品时，通常情况下，历史上并没有太多的定价权。”（上面的视频）。“但今年不同寻常的是，已经出现了。尤其是食品公司，年中就开始涨价，而且几乎没有弹性。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e60ff60917eb4db45a68c41bd19a337\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"529\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Frozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年11月17日，星期三，费城的冷冻火鸡。（美联社照片/马特·洛克）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，也就是说，消费者行为预计会在某个时候发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.</p><p><blockquote>“进入明年，我们真正关注的是：消费者在什么时候开始抵制，我们是否开始看到一些降价或其他行为表明消费者感受到了压力？”斯皮兰说。</blockquote></p><p> Investor appetite for food and beverage companies</p><p><blockquote>投资者对食品饮料公司的兴趣</blockquote></p><p> The top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.</p><p><blockquote>上涨或下跌潜力最大的公司是金宝汤，美国银行给予该公司“表现不佳”评级。</blockquote></p><p> “Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”</p><p><blockquote>“坎贝尔正在为一些问题而苦苦挣扎，”斯皮兰说。“一是他们正在经历大幅通货膨胀。他们的产品组合稍微偏向于……中低收入家庭。因此，这可能是一个在传递这些价格方面可能存在一些敏感性的领域。”</blockquote></p><p> The iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰补充说，这家标志性的汤公司还直接和间接面临劳动力短缺和劳动力成本上升的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1718627f49a5fcc29f52e9e322313f\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Cans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年2月15日，美国纽约市一家超市里陈列着罐装金宝汤。路透社/布伦丹·麦克德米德</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick &amp; Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予调味料制造商味好美公司“跑输大盘”评级，目标价为84美元。</blockquote></p><p> McCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”</p><p><blockquote>斯皮兰表示，味好美“仍以溢价估值交易”，并补充说，虽然它受益于人们在过去18个月里更多地在家做饭，但“在某个时候，随着情况放缓，你会看到这种情况减少在家做饭的行为。这将给味好美带来悬念。”</blockquote></p><p> On the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，“好时[HSY]处于有利地位，”斯皮兰说，尤其是在通胀环境方面。</blockquote></p><p> “The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.</p><p><blockquote>“这个类别仍在强劲增长，仍然有很多产品创新，并且已经证明了定价能力，我们认为好时的设置非常好，甚至能够保护利润率，也许有可能随着我们经历一些通货膨胀而增长利润率，”他解释道。</blockquote></p><p> BofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行还给予炉灶馅料制造商卡夫亨氏买入评级，目标价为46美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>分析师写道：“我们认为这是合理的，因为我们认为KHC处于有利地位，可以捕捉与经济衰退和食品储藏室库存相关的消费者需求模式变化相关的增长，但这些增长被高于平均水平的债务水平所抵消。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MKC":"味好美","CAG":"康尼格拉","KHC":"卡夫亨氏","CPB":"金宝汤","GIS":"通用磨坊","NAPA":"The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc.","HRL":"荷美尔"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-stocks-thanksgiving-exposure-bank-of-america-134505457.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122037796","content_text":"Thanksgiving feasts will likely draw larger crowds than last year and incur higher costs.\nA recent Bank of America note detailed which companies have the most exposure to the top holiday dishes amid supply chain bottlenecks, inflation, lingering COVID concerns, low inventories, and evolving consumer behaviors.\nThose companies are Campbell's Soup Company (CPB), General Mills (GIS), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Conagra Brands (CAG), Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), McCormick & Company (MKC), and The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc. (NAPA).\n\"We looked at companies’ exposure to the top Thanksgiving dishes: turkey, stuffing, dinner rolls, gravy, green bean casserole, potatoes, mac & cheese dessert and wine,\" the analysts stated. \"Overall CPB, GIS, KHC, CAG, MKC, HRL and NAPA are the most exposed. KHC and NAPA are our favorite stocks in this group.\"\nKey companies exposed to Thanksgiving meal trends. (Source: BofA)Thanksgiving 'center of the plate' items see more pricing power\nPeople appear to be gathering around the table again, the analysts stated, as data from social media conversations found mentions of \"vaccines\" on the rise while mentions of \"FaceTime,\" \"social distancing,\" and \"canceled\" declined. (\"Friendsgiving\" and \"day drinking\" also saw increases.)\nAnd whether consumers opt for turkey or ham, mashed potatoes or marshmallow-topped sweet potatoes, traditional orplant-based options, they're likely to pay more with inflation hitting food prices.\nThe American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving cost index projects a 14% year-over-year increase for 2021, led by a 24% increase in turkey prices.\n“When you look at more of the center of the plate sort of food items, typically, there has not historically been a lot of pricing power,” Bryan Spillane, a senior food and beverage analyst at BofA Global Research, told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “But what's unusual this year is that there has been. Food companies, in particular, began raising prices the middle of the year, and there's virtually been no elasticity.”\nFrozen turkeys in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)\nThat said, Spillane added, consumer behavior is expected to change at some point.\n“Something that we're really watching as we move into next year is: At what point does the consumer begin to push back and do we begin to see some trading down or other behavior that demonstrates that consumers are feeling that pinch?” Spillane said.\nInvestor appetite for food and beverage companies\nThe top company with the most upside or downside potential is Campbell's, which BofA gave an \"underperform\" rating.\n“Campbell's struggling from a few issues,” Spillane said. “One is they are experiencing a material amount of inflation. They have a product portfolio that's a little bit more skewed… to kind of middle and low-income households. So, that's, maybe, an area where there may be some sensitivity around passing those prices through.”\nThe iconic soup company also has a lot of direct and indirect exposure to labor shortages and higher labor costs, Spillane added.\nCans of Campbell's Soup are displayed in a supermarket in New York City, U.S. February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid\nBofA also gave seasoning-maker McCormick & Company an \"underperform\" rating, with an $84 price target.\nMcCormick is “still trading at a premium valuation,” Spillane said, adding that while it has benefitted from people having cooked at home more in the last 18 months, “at some point, as things moderate, you're going to see less of that cooking at home behavior. And that's going to create an overhang for McCormick.”\nOn the flip side, “Hershey [HSY] is well-positioned,” Spillane said, especially when it comes to the inflationary environment.\n“The combination of a category that's still growing very strongly where there's still a lot of product innovation and where there's been demonstrated pricing power, we think that Hershey is set up really well to be able to maybe even more than protect margins, maybe potentially grow margins as we cycle through some of this inflation,” he explained.\nBofA also awarded Stove Top stuffing-maker Kraft Heinz a buy rating with a $46 price objective.\n“We believe this is justified based our view that KHC is well positioned to capture growth associated with changing consumer demand patterns related to recessions and pantry stocking offset by higher than average debt levels,” the analysts wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRL":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"KHC":0.9,"NAPA":0.9,"MKC":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"CAG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825266009,"gmtCreate":1634229203899,"gmtModify":1634229204075,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825266009","repostId":"1128641889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128641889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634227362,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128641889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 00:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。即使是仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128641889","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla  stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion.  That’s more than Toyota Motor’s  market capitalization of about $28","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。就连空头也承认了。</blockquote></p><p> Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.</p><p><blockquote>周四，Barclays分析师Brian Johnson将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票的目标价从230美元上调至300美元。不过，他对股票的评级仍相当于卖出。特斯拉股价周四收于818.32美元，远未达到300美元。尽管如此，他的价格目标在一个方面被提高到了一个重要水平。</blockquote></p><p> At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than&nbsp;Toyota Motor’s&nbsp;(TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Johnson表示，特斯拉股票的价格为300美元，价值约为3000亿美元。（特斯拉拥有约10亿股已发行股票，这使得计算变得简单。）这超过了丰田汽车(TM)约2870亿美元的市值。另一位分析师现在认为，没有比特斯拉更有价值的汽车公司了。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在华尔街仍然是一只非常有争议的股票。分析师的目标价——甚至取消了最高和最低目标以减少偏差——范围为每股150美元至1,080美元。930美元的牛熊价差是当前股价的100%以上，比大型股票的平均价差宽两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bull-bear spread for&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.</p><p><blockquote>例如，微软(MSFT)的牛熊价差约为每股100美元，约为该股近期296.31美元价格的33%。</blockquote></p><p> The Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的争议在很大程度上可以归结为一场关于特斯拉是什么的辩论。看空者认为这是一家汽车公司，竞争将侵蚀其利润并减缓其增长。看多者认为，特斯拉是一家平台科技公司，拥有许多业务（例如固定电源）及其核心汽车业务，并且特斯拉在自动驾驶和电池管理软件等方面相对于汽车同行的领先地位将实现十年的高增长，同时保持领先的电动汽车市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;(F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>约翰逊是一名传统的汽车分析师，负责20多家公司的业务。他似乎属于前一个阵营。他将通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)股票评级为买入。这两只股票的市盈率为个位数。特斯拉的市盈率约为2022年预期市盈率的100倍。</blockquote></p><p> He raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.</p><p><blockquote>他提高了目标价，因为尽管他认为该公司被高估，但在10月20日发布的第三季度财报中，情况看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计第三季度销售额为135亿美元，每股收益约为1.5美元。该公司第二季度销售额为120亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.45美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are both down slightly over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价一直表现强劲，反映出盈利状况良好。过去三个月股价上涨了约21%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数同期均小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Its stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>其股价在盘前交易中上涨0.4%至821.75美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。即使是仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。即使是仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 00:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股。就连空头也承认了。</blockquote></p><p> Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.</p><p><blockquote>周四，Barclays分析师Brian Johnson将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票的目标价从230美元上调至300美元。不过，他对股票的评级仍相当于卖出。特斯拉股价周四收于818.32美元，远未达到300美元。尽管如此，他的价格目标在一个方面被提高到了一个重要水平。</blockquote></p><p> At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than&nbsp;Toyota Motor’s&nbsp;(TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>Johnson表示，特斯拉股票的价格为300美元，价值约为3000亿美元。（特斯拉拥有约10亿股已发行股票，这使得计算变得简单。）这超过了丰田汽车(TM)约2870亿美元的市值。另一位分析师现在认为，没有比特斯拉更有价值的汽车公司了。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在华尔街仍然是一只非常有争议的股票。分析师的目标价——甚至取消了最高和最低目标以减少偏差——范围为每股150美元至1,080美元。930美元的牛熊价差是当前股价的100%以上，比大型股票的平均价差宽两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bull-bear spread for&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.</p><p><blockquote>例如，微软(MSFT)的牛熊价差约为每股100美元，约为该股近期296.31美元价格的33%。</blockquote></p><p> The Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的争议在很大程度上可以归结为一场关于特斯拉是什么的辩论。看空者认为这是一家汽车公司，竞争将侵蚀其利润并减缓其增长。看多者认为，特斯拉是一家平台科技公司，拥有许多业务（例如固定电源）及其核心汽车业务，并且特斯拉在自动驾驶和电池管理软件等方面相对于汽车同行的领先地位将实现十年的高增长，同时保持领先的电动汽车市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;(F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>约翰逊是一名传统的汽车分析师，负责20多家公司的业务。他似乎属于前一个阵营。他将通用汽车(GM)和福特汽车(F)股票评级为买入。这两只股票的市盈率为个位数。特斯拉的市盈率约为2022年预期市盈率的100倍。</blockquote></p><p> He raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.</p><p><blockquote>他提高了目标价，因为尽管他认为该公司被高估，但在10月20日发布的第三季度财报中，情况看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计第三季度销售额为135亿美元，每股收益约为1.5美元。该公司第二季度销售额为120亿美元，调整后每股收益为1.45美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are both down slightly over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价一直表现强劲，反映出盈利状况良好。过去三个月股价上涨了约21%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数同期均小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Its stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>其股价在盘前交易中上涨0.4%至821.75美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-51634217724?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-51634217724?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128641889","content_text":"Tesla is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.\nThursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.\nAt $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than Toyota Motor’s (TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.\nTesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.\nThe bull-bear spread for Microsoft (MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.\nThe Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.\nJohnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.\nHe raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.\nFor the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.\nTesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down slightly over the same span.\nIts stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821787700,"gmtCreate":1633791887773,"gmtModify":1633791887884,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like 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08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.","TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ONON":"On Holding AG","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ONON":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SRAD":0.9,"TYRA":0.9,"DICE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"FORG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880952731,"gmtCreate":1631013602923,"gmtModify":1631890641116,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880952731","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817880236,"gmtCreate":1630931285525,"gmtModify":1631890641121,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817880236","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 06:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","HD":"家得宝",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","KR":"克罗格",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"KR":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HD":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814369089,"gmtCreate":1630765179341,"gmtModify":1631890641123,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814369089","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812659475,"gmtCreate":1630585918797,"gmtModify":1631890641126,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812659475","repostId":"1132731638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132731638","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630584615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132731638?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 20:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132731638","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Thursday on hopes the Federal Reserve would maintain an ac","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Thursday on hopes the Federal Reserve would maintain an accommodative policy amid signs that a broader economic recovery was slowing.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走高，因有迹象表明更广泛的经济复苏正在放缓，人们希望美联储将维持宽松政策。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 63 points, or 0.18%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 45.5 points, or 0.29%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨63点，涨幅0.18%，标普500 e-mini上涨9.25点，涨幅0.2%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨45.5点，涨幅0.29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065d8b0b6a7cc1992aaa1d2c32c609fc\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight technology stocks including Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc, which tend to perform better when interest rates are low, were among the biggest gainers in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>包括苹果公司、Netflix公司和亚马逊公司在内的重量级科技股在盘前交易中涨幅最大，这些股往往在利率较低时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Schlumberger NV also rose between 0.2% and 0.5%, tracking crude prices. [O/R]</p><p><blockquote>石油巨头埃克森美孚、雪佛龙公司和斯伦贝谢公司也跟随原油价格上涨0.2%至0.5%。[O/R]</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have consistently hit record highs over the past few weeks as a solid corporate earnings season underpinned confidence even as data showed the post-pandemic U.S. economic growth was beginning to slow.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，标普500和以科技股为主的纳斯达克持续创下历史新高，尽管数据显示大流行后的美国经济增长开始放缓，但稳健的企业财报季支撑了信心。</blockquote></p><p> Still, strategists said those highs could be challenged as the rebound in corporate profits loses its edge and the pressure builds on the Fed to taper its massive stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，策略师表示，随着企业利润反弹失去优势，美联储缩减大规模刺激措施的压力越来越大，这些高点可能会受到挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">Hormel</a> – The food producer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 39 cents per share, matching forecasts, with revenue coming in above estimates. However, Hormel gave a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook, noting the impact of higher costs, although it said price hikes and cost cuts should help its margins moving forward. Hormel fell 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">荷美尔</a>-该食品生产商报告调整后季度收益为每股39美分，与预期相符，收入高于预期。然而，荷美尔给出的全年前景弱于预期，并指出成本上升的影响，尽管该公司表示价格上涨和成本削减应该有助于其利润率的提高。荷美尔在盘前交易中下跌3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LE\">Lands' End</a> – The apparel retailer beat estimates by 6 cents with quarterly earnings of 48 cents per share and revenue above estimates as well. However, the company also said its profit margins would moderate in the back half of its fiscal year due to supply chain challenges, and the stock fell 3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LE\">土地的尽头</a>-该服装零售商超出预期6美分，季度收益为每股48美分，收入也高于预期。不过，该公司还表示，由于供应链挑战，其利润率将在本财年下半年放缓，该股在盘前下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRC\">Hill-Rom</a> – The medical equipment maker agreed to be bought by medical products makerBaxter International(BAX) for $156 per share in cash or about $10.5 billion. It had been reported earlier this week that the two sides were in talks about a potential $10 billion deal. Hill-Rom gained 3.1% in premarket trading, while Baxter edged higher by 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRC\">希尔-罗姆</a>-这家医疗设备制造商同意被医疗产品制造商百特国际(BAX)以每股156美元现金（约合105亿美元）收购。本周早些时候有报道称，双方正在就一项潜在的100亿美元交易进行谈判。Hill-Rom在盘前交易中上涨3.1%，而Baxter则小幅上涨0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">Signet Jewelers</a> – The jewelry retailer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $3.57 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.69, with revenue exceeding forecasts as well. Comparable store sales surged 97%, more than the 79.2% increase that analysts were anticipating. Signet also raised its full-year outlook, and its stock rallied 5.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">图章珠宝商</a>-这家珠宝零售商报告调整后季度收益为每股3.57美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.69美元，收入也超出预期。可比商店销售额飙升97%，高于分析师预期的79.2%增幅。Signet还上调了全年预期，其股价盘前上涨5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy, Inc.</a> – Chewy tumbled 10.2% in the premarket, following a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that fell slightly short of estimates. The pet products retailer’s adjusted loss of 4 cents per share was twice as wide as analysts had anticipated, with Chewy noting a higher-than-usual level of out-of-stock products. The company also issued a weaker-than-expected outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼公司。</a>-Chewy盘前下跌10.2%，季度亏损超出预期，收入略低于预期。这家宠物产品零售商调整后每股亏损4美分，是分析师预期的两倍，Chewy指出缺货产品的水平高于平常。该公司还发布了弱于预期的展望。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint Holdings Inc.</a> – The electric vehicle charging company saw its shares soar 12.3% in the premarket after quarterly sales beat estimates and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance. For its most recent quarter, ChargePoint matched Street forecasts with an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint控股公司。</a>-这家电动汽车充电公司在季度销售额超出预期并上调全年收入指引后，其股价在盘前飙升12.3%。ChargePoint最近一个季度的调整后每股亏损13美分，符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">Okta Inc.</a> – The identity management software company posted an adjusted quarterly loss of 11 cents per share, smaller than the 35-cent loss that analysts were anticipating. Revenue came in above estimates, and the company issued a better-than-expected outlook, but the shares fell 1.5% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">奥克塔公司。</a>–这家身份管理软件公司公布调整后季度每股亏损11美分，小于分析师预期的35美分亏损。收入高于预期，该公司发布了好于预期的前景，但股价盘前下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai, Inc.</a> – The artificial intelligence software provider’s stock tumbled 7.7% in premarket trading after it reported a surprise quarterly loss. C3.ai lost an adjusted 37 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of a 28 cents per share profit, and it also issued a weaker-than-expected current-quarter revenue outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.人工智能公司。</a>-这家人工智能软件提供商公布意外季度亏损后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌7.7%。C3.ai最近一个季度调整后每股亏损37美分，而分析师预测每股盈利28美分，该公司还发布了弱于预期的本季度营收展望。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a> – The discount retailer saw its stock slide 8.6% in the premarket, despite a 4-cent beat with quarterly earnings of $1.15 per share. Five Below’s revenue was shy of Street forecasts, and it is not giving sales or earnings guidance for the full year due to uncertainties surrounding Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">五以下</a>-这家折扣零售商的股价在盘前下跌了8.6%，尽管季度收益为每股1.15美元，超出了4美分。Five Below的收入低于华尔街的预测，并且由于围绕Covid-19的不确定性，该公司没有给出全年的销售或盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena</a> – The networking equipment maker earned an adjusted 92 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating estimates by 13 cents, while revenue beat estimates as well amid what the company calls “robust demand.” Separately, Ciena announced the acquisition ofAT&amp;T’s (T) Vyatta virtual routing and switching technology unit. Ciena jumped 6.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena</a>–这家网络设备制造商最近一个季度调整后每股收益为92美分，超出预期13美分，而由于该公司评级“需求强劲”，收入也超出预期。另外，Ciena宣布收购AT&amp;T(T)的Vyatta虚拟路由和交换技术部门。Ciena在盘前交易中上涨6.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 20:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Thursday on hopes the Federal Reserve would maintain an accommodative policy amid signs that a broader economic recovery was slowing.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走高，因有迹象表明更广泛的经济复苏正在放缓，人们希望美联储将维持宽松政策。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 63 points, or 0.18%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 45.5 points, or 0.29%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨63点，涨幅0.18%，标普500 e-mini上涨9.25点，涨幅0.2%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨45.5点，涨幅0.29%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065d8b0b6a7cc1992aaa1d2c32c609fc\" tg-width=\"916\" tg-height=\"290\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Heavyweight technology stocks including Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc, which tend to perform better when interest rates are low, were among the biggest gainers in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>包括苹果公司、Netflix公司和亚马逊公司在内的重量级科技股在盘前交易中涨幅最大，这些股往往在利率较低时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p> Oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Schlumberger NV also rose between 0.2% and 0.5%, tracking crude prices. [O/R]</p><p><blockquote>石油巨头埃克森美孚、雪佛龙公司和斯伦贝谢公司也跟随原油价格上涨0.2%至0.5%。[O/R]</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have consistently hit record highs over the past few weeks as a solid corporate earnings season underpinned confidence even as data showed the post-pandemic U.S. economic growth was beginning to slow.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，标普500和以科技股为主的纳斯达克持续创下历史新高，尽管数据显示大流行后的美国经济增长开始放缓，但稳健的企业财报季支撑了信心。</blockquote></p><p> Still, strategists said those highs could be challenged as the rebound in corporate profits loses its edge and the pressure builds on the Fed to taper its massive stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，策略师表示，随着企业利润反弹失去优势，美联储缩减大规模刺激措施的压力越来越大，这些高点可能会受到挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">Hormel</a> – The food producer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 39 cents per share, matching forecasts, with revenue coming in above estimates. However, Hormel gave a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook, noting the impact of higher costs, although it said price hikes and cost cuts should help its margins moving forward. Hormel fell 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRL\">荷美尔</a>-该食品生产商报告调整后季度收益为每股39美分，与预期相符，收入高于预期。然而，荷美尔给出的全年前景弱于预期，并指出成本上升的影响，尽管该公司表示价格上涨和成本削减应该有助于其利润率的提高。荷美尔在盘前交易中下跌3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LE\">Lands' End</a> – The apparel retailer beat estimates by 6 cents with quarterly earnings of 48 cents per share and revenue above estimates as well. However, the company also said its profit margins would moderate in the back half of its fiscal year due to supply chain challenges, and the stock fell 3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LE\">土地的尽头</a>-该服装零售商超出预期6美分，季度收益为每股48美分，收入也高于预期。不过，该公司还表示，由于供应链挑战，其利润率将在本财年下半年放缓，该股在盘前下跌3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRC\">Hill-Rom</a> – The medical equipment maker agreed to be bought by medical products makerBaxter International(BAX) for $156 per share in cash or about $10.5 billion. It had been reported earlier this week that the two sides were in talks about a potential $10 billion deal. Hill-Rom gained 3.1% in premarket trading, while Baxter edged higher by 0.7%.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HRC\">希尔-罗姆</a>-这家医疗设备制造商同意被医疗产品制造商百特国际(BAX)以每股156美元现金（约合105亿美元）收购。本周早些时候有报道称，双方正在就一项潜在的100亿美元交易进行谈判。Hill-Rom在盘前交易中上涨3.1%，而Baxter则小幅上涨0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">Signet Jewelers</a> – The jewelry retailer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $3.57 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.69, with revenue exceeding forecasts as well. Comparable store sales surged 97%, more than the 79.2% increase that analysts were anticipating. Signet also raised its full-year outlook, and its stock rallied 5.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIG\">图章珠宝商</a>-这家珠宝零售商报告调整后季度收益为每股3.57美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.69美元，收入也超出预期。可比商店销售额飙升97%，高于分析师预期的79.2%增幅。Signet还上调了全年预期，其股价盘前上涨5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy, Inc.</a> – Chewy tumbled 10.2% in the premarket, following a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that fell slightly short of estimates. The pet products retailer’s adjusted loss of 4 cents per share was twice as wide as analysts had anticipated, with Chewy noting a higher-than-usual level of out-of-stock products. The company also issued a weaker-than-expected outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼公司。</a>-Chewy盘前下跌10.2%，季度亏损超出预期，收入略低于预期。这家宠物产品零售商调整后每股亏损4美分，是分析师预期的两倍，Chewy指出缺货产品的水平高于平常。该公司还发布了弱于预期的展望。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint Holdings Inc.</a> – The electric vehicle charging company saw its shares soar 12.3% in the premarket after quarterly sales beat estimates and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance. For its most recent quarter, ChargePoint matched Street forecasts with an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint控股公司。</a>-这家电动汽车充电公司在季度销售额超出预期并上调全年收入指引后，其股价在盘前飙升12.3%。ChargePoint最近一个季度的调整后每股亏损13美分，符合华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">Okta Inc.</a> – The identity management software company posted an adjusted quarterly loss of 11 cents per share, smaller than the 35-cent loss that analysts were anticipating. Revenue came in above estimates, and the company issued a better-than-expected outlook, but the shares fell 1.5% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKTA\">奥克塔公司。</a>–这家身份管理软件公司公布调整后季度每股亏损11美分，小于分析师预期的35美分亏损。收入高于预期，该公司发布了好于预期的前景，但股价盘前下跌1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.ai, Inc.</a> – The artificial intelligence software provider’s stock tumbled 7.7% in premarket trading after it reported a surprise quarterly loss. C3.ai lost an adjusted 37 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of a 28 cents per share profit, and it also issued a weaker-than-expected current-quarter revenue outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">C3.人工智能公司。</a>-这家人工智能软件提供商公布意外季度亏损后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌7.7%。C3.ai最近一个季度调整后每股亏损37美分，而分析师预测每股盈利28美分，该公司还发布了弱于预期的本季度营收展望。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a> – The discount retailer saw its stock slide 8.6% in the premarket, despite a 4-cent beat with quarterly earnings of $1.15 per share. Five Below’s revenue was shy of Street forecasts, and it is not giving sales or earnings guidance for the full year due to uncertainties surrounding Covid-19.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">五以下</a>-这家折扣零售商的股价在盘前下跌了8.6%，尽管季度收益为每股1.15美元，超出了4美分。Five Below的收入低于华尔街的预测，并且由于围绕Covid-19的不确定性，该公司没有给出全年的销售或盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena</a> – The networking equipment maker earned an adjusted 92 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating estimates by 13 cents, while revenue beat estimates as well amid what the company calls “robust demand.” Separately, Ciena announced the acquisition ofAT&amp;T’s (T) Vyatta virtual routing and switching technology unit. Ciena jumped 6.3% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIEN\">Ciena</a>–这家网络设备制造商最近一个季度调整后每股收益为92美分，超出预期13美分，而由于该公司评级“需求强劲”，收入也超出预期。另外，Ciena宣布收购AT&amp;T(T)的Vyatta虚拟路由和交换技术部门。Ciena在盘前交易中上涨6.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132731638","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures inched higher on Thursday on hopes the Federal Reserve would maintain an accommodative policy amid signs that a broader economic recovery was slowing.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 63 points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 45.5 points, or 0.29%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nHeavyweight technology stocks including Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc, which tend to perform better when interest rates are low, were among the biggest gainers in premarket trading.\nOil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron Corp and Schlumberger NV also rose between 0.2% and 0.5%, tracking crude prices. [O/R]\nThe S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have consistently hit record highs over the past few weeks as a solid corporate earnings season underpinned confidence even as data showed the post-pandemic U.S. economic growth was beginning to slow.\nStill, strategists said those highs could be challenged as the rebound in corporate profits loses its edge and the pressure builds on the Fed to taper its massive stimulus.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nHormel – The food producer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 39 cents per share, matching forecasts, with revenue coming in above estimates. However, Hormel gave a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook, noting the impact of higher costs, although it said price hikes and cost cuts should help its margins moving forward. Hormel fell 3.5% in premarket trading.\nLands' End – The apparel retailer beat estimates by 6 cents with quarterly earnings of 48 cents per share and revenue above estimates as well. However, the company also said its profit margins would moderate in the back half of its fiscal year due to supply chain challenges, and the stock fell 3% in premarket action.\nHill-Rom – The medical equipment maker agreed to be bought by medical products makerBaxter International(BAX) for $156 per share in cash or about $10.5 billion. It had been reported earlier this week that the two sides were in talks about a potential $10 billion deal. Hill-Rom gained 3.1% in premarket trading, while Baxter edged higher by 0.7%.\nSignet Jewelers – The jewelry retailer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $3.57 per share, well above the consensus estimate of $1.69, with revenue exceeding forecasts as well. Comparable store sales surged 97%, more than the 79.2% increase that analysts were anticipating. Signet also raised its full-year outlook, and its stock rallied 5.4% in the premarket.\nChewy, Inc. – Chewy tumbled 10.2% in the premarket, following a wider-than-expected quarterly loss and revenue that fell slightly short of estimates. The pet products retailer’s adjusted loss of 4 cents per share was twice as wide as analysts had anticipated, with Chewy noting a higher-than-usual level of out-of-stock products. The company also issued a weaker-than-expected outlook.\nChargePoint Holdings Inc. – The electric vehicle charging company saw its shares soar 12.3% in the premarket after quarterly sales beat estimates and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance. For its most recent quarter, ChargePoint matched Street forecasts with an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share.\nOkta Inc. – The identity management software company posted an adjusted quarterly loss of 11 cents per share, smaller than the 35-cent loss that analysts were anticipating. Revenue came in above estimates, and the company issued a better-than-expected outlook, but the shares fell 1.5% in the premarket.\nC3.ai, Inc. – The artificial intelligence software provider’s stock tumbled 7.7% in premarket trading after it reported a surprise quarterly loss. C3.ai lost an adjusted 37 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of a 28 cents per share profit, and it also issued a weaker-than-expected current-quarter revenue outlook.\nFive Below – The discount retailer saw its stock slide 8.6% in the premarket, despite a 4-cent beat with quarterly earnings of $1.15 per share. Five Below’s revenue was shy of Street forecasts, and it is not giving sales or earnings guidance for the full year due to uncertainties surrounding Covid-19.\nCiena – The networking equipment maker earned an adjusted 92 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating estimates by 13 cents, while revenue beat estimates as well amid what the company calls “robust demand.” Separately, Ciena announced the acquisition ofAT&T’s (T) Vyatta virtual routing and switching technology unit. Ciena jumped 6.3% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811619858,"gmtCreate":1630315731174,"gmtModify":1704958303010,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576472339748285","authorIdStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still ok","listText":"Still ok","text":"Still ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811619858","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":139768952,"gmtCreate":1621659047976,"gmtModify":1634187303507,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy more bank of america! Like and comment","listText":"Buy more bank of america! Like and comment","text":"Buy more bank of america! Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139768952","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177192558,"gmtCreate":1627185070674,"gmtModify":1633767345816,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Potentially","listText":"Potentially","text":"Potentially","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177192558","repostId":"2153936352","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880952731,"gmtCreate":1631013602923,"gmtModify":1631890641116,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880952731","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140221443,"gmtCreate":1625662953482,"gmtModify":1631884665468,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China stocks is uncertain now","listText":"China stocks is uncertain now","text":"China stocks is uncertain now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140221443","repostId":"2149397835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817880236,"gmtCreate":1630931285525,"gmtModify":1631890641121,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817880236","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 06:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","HD":"家得宝",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","KR":"克罗格",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"KR":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HD":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832464471,"gmtCreate":1629675488493,"gmtModify":1631892368461,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for the news","listText":"Waiting for the news","text":"Waiting for the news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832464471","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115711481,"gmtCreate":1623030580543,"gmtModify":1634096081173,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gme fundamentals","listText":"Gme fundamentals","text":"Gme fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115711481","repostId":"2141926289","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198504278,"gmtCreate":1620967302594,"gmtModify":1634194884783,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up and away! Like and comment pls","listText":"Up up and away! Like and comment pls","text":"Up up and away! Like and comment 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171730148","repostId":"1192569125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173366938,"gmtCreate":1626618241924,"gmtModify":1633925465770,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173366938","repostId":"2152968147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185339477,"gmtCreate":1623632822899,"gmtModify":1634030965473,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Long term growth stock","listText":"Long term growth stock","text":"Long term growth stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185339477","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果您持有PLTR股票或正在考虑这样做，我们对您的劝告是后退一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为贴现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，那么EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与成长型公司估值的相关性就像公司徽标的颜色一样，因此我们不会注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍还不错。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数是否站得住脚。因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗水平线是“控制点”，即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果您持有PLTR股票或正在考虑这样做，我们对您的劝告是后退一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果您认为贴现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，那么EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与成长型公司估值的相关性就像公司徽标的颜色一样，因此我们不会注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍还不错。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数是否站得住脚。因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗水平线是“控制点”，即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116900475,"gmtCreate":1622768223097,"gmtModify":1634098239333,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba is more established","listText":"Alibaba is more established","text":"Alibaba is more established","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116900475","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138233281,"gmtCreate":1621941392543,"gmtModify":1634185322762,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems crypto will bounce back","listText":"Seems crypto will bounce back","text":"Seems crypto will bounce back","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138233281","repostId":"1103938112","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":829856379,"gmtCreate":1633490273233,"gmtModify":1633490273670,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it sustain?","listText":"Will it sustain?","text":"Will it sustain?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829856379","repostId":"1101968131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888171176,"gmtCreate":1631466846395,"gmtModify":1631890641113,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888171176","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.","TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.","BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ONON":"On Holding AG","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ONON":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SRAD":0.9,"TYRA":0.9,"DICE":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"FORG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814369089,"gmtCreate":1630765179341,"gmtModify":1631890641123,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814369089","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811619858,"gmtCreate":1630315731174,"gmtModify":1704958303010,"author":{"id":"3576472339748285","authorId":"3576472339748285","name":"Charlene_Wee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1195614ba4e8b2edf234e734266578","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576472339748285","idStr":"3576472339748285"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still ok","listText":"Still ok","text":"Still ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811619858","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}