jack1234的个人主页 - 老虎社区

jack1234

jack1234

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0勋章

2021-06-23

$斗鱼(DOYU)$坚持到底

2021-06-24

$Micronet Enertec Technologies I(MICT)$[得意] [得意] [得意]

2021-06-22

$Micronet Enertec Technologies I(MICT)$ Don't give up

2021-07-16

$Micronet Enertec Technologies I(MICT)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-06-29

[得意]

【异动】造车新势力彻底爆发，蔚来汽车涨9%

2021-06-24

[爱你]

iPhone 13用上指纹识别了，真能干掉刘海！？

2021-06-09

$Micronet Enertec Technologies I(MICT)$,❤️

2022-04-12

$可口可乐(KO)$[财迷]

2021-12-30

Perfect[得意]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-03

[财迷]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611951548","repostId":"1150234417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150234417","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650270430,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150234417?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-18 16:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉上海工厂可能于周一下午晚些时候恢复生产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150234417","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"市场消息：特斯拉上海工厂可能于周一下午晚些时候恢复生产。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>市场消息：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>上海工厂可能于周一下午晚些时候恢复生产。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c721d9dee6572867ad5b5ce84704c4b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-18 16:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>市场消息：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>上海工厂可能于周一下午晚些时候恢复生产。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c721d9dee6572867ad5b5ce84704c4b4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" 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[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611010006","repostId":"613423119","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":613423119,"gmtCreate":1650007318715,"gmtModify":1650022820822,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有奖活动】复活节彩蛋大作战","htmlText":"复活节马上就要到了，复活节英文叫Easter，是基督教纪念耶稣基督复活的的重要节日，美国的复活节是春分月圆后的第一个星期日，也就是是4月17日。虽然复活节起源于基督教的宗教节日，但现在更多的人想到这个节日，就会联想到兔子以及彩蛋。今天股票市场不开市，想跟各位小虎做个找彩蛋的小游戏，欢迎各位虎友们参与活动，寻找到彩蛋，开启好运。 【参与方式】 我们将在不同的帖子里放下6张彩蛋图片 找到图片的人可以在对应的帖子留言：“ 复活节彩蛋”(如下图)视为参赛成功。当你找到了全部6个帖子分别留言“ 复活节彩蛋”后，还需要在本贴下方评论区留言：复活节彩蛋大作战 Tips：一定要记得留言哦，要不然我们没办法统计到你，个股页面上面的显眼的地方更有机会发现哦~ 【活动时间】 4月15日-4月21日 【活动奖品】 每找到1个图片并留言“ 复活节彩蛋”即可获赠50虎币，全部找到并在本贴下方评论区留言“复活节彩蛋大作战”的虎友可以获得666虎币。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"复活节马上就要到了，复活节英文叫Easter，是基督教纪念耶稣基督复活的的重要节日，美国的复活节是春分月圆后的第一个星期日，也就是是4月17日。虽然复活节起源于基督教的宗教节日，但现在更多的人想到这个节日，就会联想到兔子以及彩蛋。今天股票市场不开市，想跟各位小虎做个找彩蛋的小游戏，欢迎各位虎友们参与活动，寻找到彩蛋，开启好运。 【参与方式】 我们将在不同的帖子里放下6张彩蛋图片 找到图片的人可以在对应的帖子留言：“ 复活节彩蛋”(如下图)视为参赛成功。当你找到了全部6个帖子分别留言“ 复活节彩蛋”后，还需要在本贴下方评论区留言：复活节彩蛋大作战 Tips：一定要记得留言哦，要不然我们没办法统计到你，个股页面上面的显眼的地方更有机会发现哦~ 【活动时间】 4月15日-4月21日 【活动奖品】 每找到1个图片并留言“ 复活节彩蛋”即可获赠50虎币，全部找到并在本贴下方评论区留言“复活节彩蛋大作战”的虎友可以获得666虎币。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"复活节马上就要到了，复活节英文叫Easter，是基督教纪念耶稣基督复活的的重要节日，美国的复活节是春分月圆后的第一个星期日，也就是是4月17日。虽然复活节起源于基督教的宗教节日，但现在更多的人想到这个节日，就会联想到兔子以及彩蛋。今天股票市场不开市，想跟各位小虎做个找彩蛋的小游戏，欢迎各位虎友们参与活动，寻找到彩蛋，开启好运。 【参与方式】 我们将在不同的帖子里放下6张彩蛋图片 找到图片的人可以在对应的帖子留言：“ 复活节彩蛋”(如下图)视为参赛成功。当你找到了全部6个帖子分别留言“ 复活节彩蛋”后，还需要在本贴下方评论区留言：复活节彩蛋大作战 Tips：一定要记得留言哦，要不然我们没办法统计到你，个股页面上面的显眼的地方更有机会发现哦~ 【活动时间】 4月15日-4月21日 【活动奖品】 每找到1个图片并留言“ 复活节彩蛋”即可获赠50虎币，全部找到并在本贴下方评论区留言“复活节彩蛋大作战”的虎友可以获得666虎币。 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18:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>知乎：香港IPO最终发售价为每股32.06港元，预计总筹资额约为8.336亿港元。本公司A 类普通股预期将于2022年4月22日在联交所主板开始交易。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f00b302892a4882931e81b8b6f86e7\" tg-width=\"1146\" tg-height=\"822\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6c286e18a70182b99ecabadb0bd3f19","relate_stocks":{"02390":"知乎-W","ZH":"知乎"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180234397","content_text":"知乎：香港IPO最终发售价为每股32.06港元，预计总筹资额约为8.336亿港元。本公司A 类普通股预期将于2022年4月22日在联交所主板开始交易。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZH":0.9,"02390":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613554950,"gmtCreate":1649956817887,"gmtModify":1649956818077,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"666[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"666[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613554950","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613646606,"gmtCreate":1649875817798,"gmtModify":1649875817921,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨近9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd79c92f0239c6ad4ba5ba0b64420e31\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164461618","content_text":"1月31日，特斯拉涨近9%，瑞士信贷上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633914829,"gmtCreate":1643670384062,"gmtModify":1643670384131,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633914829","repostId":"1164461618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164461618","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643644864,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164461618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-01 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉涨近9%，瑞信上调其目标价为1025美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164461618","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月31日，特斯拉涨近9%，瑞士信贷上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月31日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨近9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd79c92f0239c6ad4ba5ba0b64420e31\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉涨近9%，瑞信上调其目标价为1025美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨近9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd79c92f0239c6ad4ba5ba0b64420e31\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164461618","content_text":"1月31日，特斯拉涨近9%，瑞士信贷上调特斯拉评级至跑赢大盘，目标价为1025美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633914162,"gmtCreate":1643670342651,"gmtModify":1643676177147,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"红包钱[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"红包钱[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"红包钱[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633914162","repostId":"1145592507","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145592507","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643644596,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145592507?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-31 23:56","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"中概股持续拉升，蔚来涨超14%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145592507","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月31日，中概股持续拉升，蔚来涨超14%，哔哩哔哩、雾芯科技、百济神州、爱奇艺涨超12%，贝壳涨超11%，拼多多涨超10%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月31日，中概股持续拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">百济神州</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超11%，拼多多涨超10%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fbc9ffa2e6992e2e9287225451d00a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 23:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月31日，中概股持续拉升，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超14%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">百济神州</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超11%，拼多多涨超10%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88fbc9ffa2e6992e2e9287225451d00a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺","PDD":"拼多多","NIO":"蔚来","RLX":"雾芯科技","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145592507","content_text":"1月31日，中概股持续拉升，蔚来涨超14%，哔哩哔哩、雾芯科技、百济神州、爱奇艺涨超12%，贝壳涨超11%，拼多多涨超10%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PDD":0.9,"RLX":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"BGNE":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"BEKE":0.9,"IQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633914394,"gmtCreate":1643670184183,"gmtModify":1643670184183,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"[难过]&nbsp;","text":"[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633914394","repostId":"1176041035","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176041035","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1643611390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176041035?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-31 14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176041035","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。</p><p>1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。</p><p><b>华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？</b>截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。</p><p>多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。</p><p>不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。</p><p><b>紧缩风暴来袭</b></p><p>鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。</p><p>鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。</p><p>新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。</p><p>有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”</p><p>刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。</p><p>GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。</p><p>面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美股远未跌完</b></p><p>受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。<b>当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。</b></p><p>“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| 纳斯达克100指数</p><p>他提及，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”</p><p><b>目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。</b>美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。</p><p>国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。</p><p>目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。</p><p>如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。</p><p>但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：</p><p><b>它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股中枢下移</b></p><p><b>转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？</b></p><p>1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。</p><p>中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。</p><p>政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。</p><p>目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。<b>2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。</b>资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。</p><p>以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储紧缩风暴来袭，所有人都在问股市何处是底？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 14:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。</p><p>1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。</p><p><b>华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？</b>截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。</p><p>多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。</p><p>不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。</p><p><b>紧缩风暴来袭</b></p><p>鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。</p><p>鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。</p><p>新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。</p><p>有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”</p><p>刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。</p><p>GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。</p><p>面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39b2414af7cbb3122dd4284dbf02b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美股远未跌完</b></p><p>受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。<b>当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。</b></p><p>“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5dba0f7c11bb72d96ee1b462cde5dd5\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>| 纳斯达克100指数</p><p>他提及，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b44c25ffd6877291a3b5bd2e7c924e\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e8f12e7705d12478c89c8330e5f64e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141769c162fb4c35de32fb0d3e48afaa\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”</p><p><b>目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。</b>美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。</p><p>国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。</p><p>目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。</p><p>如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。</p><p>但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：</p><p><b>它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a007c7df800bbb57a2856586d5730a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A股中枢下移</b></p><p><b>转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？</b></p><p>1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。</p><p>中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。</p><p>政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。</p><p>目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。<b>2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。</b>资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。</p><p>以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75adecb2c4a2991eb1db80f007a7b5f8","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176041035","content_text":"高通胀、低失业率，这意味着美国的加息、缩表风暴将掀起狂潮，又快又疾。1月的美联储议息会议释放了强烈的鹰派信号，不仅揭开了加息的序幕，还有量化紧缩（QT）紧跟其后。美联储主席鲍威尔表示在供应链方面没有任何进展，可以看出他对通胀问题非常担忧，高通胀持续的时间会超出预期。华尔街大行目前预计3月开始加息，全年加息4次，7月前后启动缩表，美联储高达9万亿美元的资产负债表要缩到何种地步才能抑制顽固的通胀？股市又何处是底？截至目前，标普500指数已经从高位下挫近10%，纳斯达克100指数也跌超15%，逼近技术性熊市。紧缩的影响在全球都出现了溢出效应，哪怕是启动政策宽松的中国，A股竟在上周一举跌破了3400点。多位美股交易员对笔者表示，受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”（centralbankput，即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市）逐步失效，“逢低买入”的策略可能退出历史舞台。不过由于最近美股跌势过猛，未来一两周很可能出现技术性反弹，但后续很可能会继续下行，标普500的4818点可能就是近两年的最高位，目前甚至有交易员对后市给出3800点的目标位。紧缩风暴来袭鲍威尔在北京时间1月27日凌晨3点开始的新闻发布会上展现鹰姿，相较于温和的货币政策声明，他的基调要更偏鹰派，风险资产应声下跌，美股三大股指由涨转跌。鲍威尔重申将迅速退出量宽的计划，同时还暗示很可能最快会在下次3月会议上启动加息。新闻发布会部分亮点如下：工资正在快速增长；通胀率仍远高于长期目标且影响范围更广；经济不再需要持续高强度政策支持；委员会普遍同意加息时机很快就会来到；鲍威尔不排除在FOMC每次会议上都进行加息；利率有相当大的上调空间；FOMC打算在3月会议上加息；美联储资产负债表规模远大于必需；通胀风险仍为向上；通胀可能较预期保持更长时间高企。有交易员对笔者提及，需要警惕3月一次性加息50bp的可能性，正如2020年疫情暴发后，美联储一次性降息50bp来进行超预期政策调控。就业市场的强韧程度为加息提供了充分空间，而不会导致经济衰退，“预计美国GDP增速会在5%左右，增长可能会放缓，但不会出现增速为负、陷入衰退的程度。”刚刚公布的美国四季度GDP初值显示，经济增长率为6.9%，高于5.5%的预期值和2.3%的前值。有一项重要信息值得留意，那就是被称为“物价指数”或“平减指数”的通胀分项指标。GDP报告显示，该指标从5.9%的前值上升至7%，高于6%的预期值。另一重要数据是四季度个人消费指数与核心个人消费指数初值，前者报在6.5%，预期值和前值分别均为5.4%。美联储最青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费指数，则报在4.9%，符合预期，但高于4.6%的前值。面对如此高的通胀，且未来由于油价处于高位、供应链问题仍持续，通胀短期难以下行，加之失业率只有3.9%，再不紧缩，美联储将面临巨大的政治、社会压力，毕竟在美国盒饭、牛奶价格都飞涨了50%以上。美股远未跌完受到超高通胀的制约，过去十多年屡试不爽的央行“看跌期权”逐步失效，美股将持续下跌。当然，积累了十多年低利率下股市不断走升的“牛市惯性”，下跌进程中难免会伴随着反弹，直到多头彻底绝望。“我认为市场会继续下挫，但由于我们现在已经进入了超卖区间，因此在下挫的进程中不排除会有反弹，但我认为不太会持续。”资深交易员、City Index分析师Joe Perry对笔者表示，“利率攀升会导致未来现金的折现率提高，这将导致估值承压，成长型科技公司的利润率将受到冲击。此外，盈利虽然没有下修，但盈利结果仅是符合预期或小幅超出预期，业绩指引却弱于预期。这一系列因素都会导致成长型科技股继续下挫。”| 纳斯达克100指数他提及，此前奈飞（Netflix）的指引不及预期，市场预计新增订阅用户数将新增超500万，但其实只增加了285万；微软的业绩符合预期，但预计一季度的云计算业务收入会下降；特斯拉发布的业绩超出预期，但供应链问题还是会贯穿2022年，或影响出货量。市场关注的大公司虽然表现尚可，但也存在隐患，也是为何此前微软业绩发布时股价一度大跌，特斯拉也是如此。除了最易受到冲击的科技股，波动率更低的标普500指数前景也不容乐观。“我认为标普500指数有进一步下行空间，今天股指正好维持在了200日均线附近，我认为会进一步下跌，未来可能看向3800点，这也是2020年秋季的最低点到2022年1月初最高点行情的50%回档位。”他称。“加息+缩表+高通胀”的组合对股市而言是致命的。关键在于，油价很可能会在2022年继续冲高，导致已经居高不下的通胀再度面临上行压力。不乏机构预计，在俄罗斯和乌克兰的地缘政治冲突下，油价很可能会冲破100美元大关，即使没有这一重要因素，库存下降也将导致油价攀升。佩里表示：“油价仍会有上行空间，尤其是考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的紧张局势，而且OPEC的产量无法攀升，一季度的确可能会冲击100美元大关，不过二三季度的可能性更大，届时原油需求也会攀升。”目前，俄罗斯乌克兰边境的紧张局势加剧，上周双方表示会在两周内进一步交涉，但这期间仍可能引发巨大的不确定性。美国国务卿此前警告说，“如果俄罗斯再增派一支部队进入乌克兰，就会触发美国的反应”，并命令美国大使馆人员离开乌克兰。英国外交部估计，目前约有100,000名俄罗斯军人在边境集结。国际资管机构认为，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应，全面武装冲突似乎不太可能，景顺（Invesco）认为原因在于：来自美国和欧盟的严重金融制裁；取消途径乌克兰的北溪2号管道；可能永久性地令欧盟转为摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。目前，俄罗斯天然气占西欧总能源消耗的9%左右，俄罗斯石油占全球石油产量的10%左右。俄罗斯似乎在经济上面临太多风险，无法进行这场赌博。因此，更有可能的情况是达成外交回应：如果北约承诺停止与乌克兰进行政治和军事接触，并且允许北溪2号管道项目进入欧盟国家，俄罗斯将撤出军队。这可以立即缓解高涨的能源价格，尤其是天然气价格。如果发生武装冲突怎么办？全球石油供应将大受影响。在这种情况下，分析师预计石油供应将出现每日230万桶的下降，这将推动油价几乎翻倍至每桶150美元左右，从而使全球GDP下降1.6%。这将对西方国家的通胀造成巨大的上行压力。许多主要央行可能会先发制人地提高政策利率，从而抑制经济反弹。但其实从投资角度来看，不管乌克兰发生什么，投资者增持能源板块是合理的，因为：它可以很好地对冲通胀。强劲的全球需求应使价格保持高位，而军事行动可能导致的严重供应中断只会进一步推动能源价格上涨。A股中枢下移转视中国股市，美国货币紧缩，美股跌了。中国货币宽松，但A股跌得更多。这又是怎么回事？1月至今（1月26日）沪深300指数下跌4.6%。但接受笔者采访的机构人士普遍认为，2月建议保持淡定，不急于加仓。中航信托方面表示，去年12月经济数据不及预期，房地产投资、销售、新开工等指标大幅负增长，消费增速下滑。1-2月面临春节假期和冬奥会，疫情防控形势更严重，消费会比较弱。房地产处于淡季，困境房企难有起色，继续拖累经济。宏观经济的亮点仍在外贸上，一季度进出口将承接去年趋势，继续保持较快增长。但是企业盈利滞后于经济周期，经济增速下降将导致一季度企业盈利增速继续下行。政策方面，货币政策已经明显宽松，1月下调中期借贷便利（MLF）和逆回购利率10BP。去年四季度货币宽松是小打小闹，今年货币政策则有明确转向。不过财政发力要等待“两会”后，财政的滞后导致一季度货币政策发力缺乏“着力点”，有劲儿无处使。此外，市场预期美联储将于3月开始加息，年内加息可能会达3-4次，也将抵消一部分国内宽松效果。目前A股的增量资金也不足。公募基金发行从去年四季度已经转弱，1月新发公募基金只有600-700亿。去年四季度开始量化产品业绩较差，遭遇投资者赎回。2021年北上资金大幅流入A股，但在证监会严厉监管“假外资”的背景下，预计今年北上资金流入规模弱于去年。资管新规过渡期结束，从非标资产转向股市的资金转移接近尾声，股市的增量资金来源减少。以近期大幅回撤的新能源赛道股为例，目前投资机构对估值更为关注。若对于30%的复合年化增速（CAGR）的公司来说，给40倍的估值就可能是合理的，但之前给到了50-60倍，甚至上百倍，那必然存在非理性的成分，后续杀估值的可能性就会加大。“至于现在值不值得买，判断也并不难——现在景气度也并未改变，如果估值跌到了30倍，那么就可以获得30%可能赚钱的空间，如果只是回到40倍，那么买入获利的空间则仍然有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692996905,"gmtCreate":1640822491666,"gmtModify":1640822491744,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692996905","repostId":"1116086640","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116086640","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640793682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116086640?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"韩国要求苹果和谷歌应用商店下架“边玩边赚”游戏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116086640","media":"IT之家","summary":"P2E 游戏通常需要玩家以不可替代的代币形式购买游戏作品。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：汪淼</p><p>据 9To5Mac 报道，韩国当局告诉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，“Play to Earn（P2E，边玩边赚）”游戏违反了当地关于游戏赢钱的规定，要求全部下架。</p><p>随着韩国继续实施新的应用商店法律，它现在单独要求平台下架 P2E 游戏。该国文化、体育和旅游部的游戏管理委员会（GMC）表示，它正在遵循最高法院的先例。</p><p>IT之家了解到，P2E 游戏通常需要玩家以不可替代的代币形式购买游戏作品，然后他们才有资格获得游戏内奖励。</p><p>据报道，这些游戏在加密货币行业很受欢迎，根据贸易出版物 Coin Telegraph 的说法，这一新举措加强了该国的立场。此前，GMC 曾试图阻止 P2E 游戏获得年龄评级—— 在应用商店上架必须拥有年龄评级。</p><p>GMC 在一份官方声明中表示，根据现行法律阻止 P2E 游戏获得年龄评级是合理的，因为游戏中的现金奖励可以被视为奖品。根据韩国法律，玩家一次最多可以赢得 8.42 美元。</p></body></html>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n韩国要求苹果和谷歌应用商店下架“边玩边赚”游戏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-30 00:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.ithome.com/0/595/645.htm><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：汪淼据 9To5Mac 报道，韩国当局告诉苹果和谷歌，“Play to Earn（P2E，边玩边赚）”游戏违反了当地关于游戏赢钱的规定，要求全部下架。随着韩国继续实施新的应用商店法律，它现在单独要求平台下架 P2E 游戏。该国文化、体育和旅游部的游戏管理委员会（GMC）表示，它正在遵循最高法院的先例。IT之家了解到，P2E 游戏通常需要玩家以不可替代的代币形式购买游戏作品，然后他们才有资格...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.ithome.com/0/595/645.htm\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33441fc72ccdb48bf25551b294692d17","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.ithome.com/0/595/645.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116086640","content_text":"作者：汪淼据 9To5Mac 报道，韩国当局告诉苹果和谷歌，“Play to Earn（P2E，边玩边赚）”游戏违反了当地关于游戏赢钱的规定，要求全部下架。随着韩国继续实施新的应用商店法律，它现在单独要求平台下架 P2E 游戏。该国文化、体育和旅游部的游戏管理委员会（GMC）表示，它正在遵循最高法院的先例。IT之家了解到，P2E 游戏通常需要玩家以不可替代的代币形式购买游戏作品，然后他们才有资格获得游戏内奖励。据报道，这些游戏在加密货币行业很受欢迎，根据贸易出版物 Coin Telegraph 的说法，这一新举措加强了该国的立场。此前，GMC 曾试图阻止 P2E 游戏获得年龄评级—— 在应用商店上架必须拥有年龄评级。GMC 在一份官方声明中表示，根据现行法律阻止 P2E 游戏获得年龄评级是合理的，因为游戏中的现金奖励可以被视为奖品。根据韩国法律，玩家一次最多可以赢得 8.42 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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36b37eb8e9efe8641c7be55a7da26d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189694806","content_text":"6月28日，中概新能源车股持续走高，蔚来涨9%，理想汽车涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨超6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121435336,"gmtCreate":1624488572725,"gmtModify":1631883859441,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[爱你]&nbsp;","listText":"[爱你]&nbsp;","text":"[爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121435336","repostId":"1152958237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152958237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624460851,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152958237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 23:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"iPhone 13用上指纹识别了，真能干掉刘海！？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152958237","media":"雷科技","summary":"下一代iPhone的传闻，在整个数码圈再度兴起波澜。","content":"<p>下一代iPhone的传闻，在整个数码圈再度兴起波澜。</p>\n<p>根据国内媒体《科创板日报》报道，供应链方面的消息称，下一代iPhone手机即将在今年9月份发布，这款产品可能会被命名为iPhone 12s或者iPhone 13。据悉，不同于iPhone 12系列，下一代iPhone系列的设计、屏幕、相机配置都将迎来全面升级，并有望首次加入屏下指纹解锁技术。</p>\n<p>无独有偶，前段时间美国媒体《Tom‘s Guide》也曾爆料称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>正在为下一代iPhone 13研发屏内指纹技术，这一功能将与Face ID一起作为辅助生物识别功能，彻底取代密码的存在。</p>\n<p>关于苹果未来机型的种种爆料，也让我们愈加好奇下一代iPhone的形态。</p>\n<p><b>Touch ID要回来了？</b></p>\n<p>果粉想要Touch ID，似乎并不是什么新鲜事。</p>\n<p>所谓Touch ID，其实就是苹果公司的一种指纹识别技术。早在2013年，苹果公司在iPhone 5s上首次实装Touch iD功能，该功能便以其识别灵敏、安全性高的优势，俘获了一大批果粉的喜爱。随后，该功能更是在iPad和Mac等设备上出现，同样饱受果粉的欢迎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8f93511c6a376d4aa6f08bd368ad9f8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>遗憾的是，2017年，苹果推出了旗下首款全面屏机型iPhone X。为了让iPhone彻底摆脱Home键，苹果开始逐步淘汰Touch ID指纹识别，转而采用Face ID面部识别功能。至此，iPhone系列产品线告别Touch iD达到3年之久，直到2020年iPhone SE 2020的出现。</p>\n<p>现在看来，虽然苹果说过“我们不会做第二套方案”，但在Face ID量产三年后，苹果确实在认真考虑屏下指纹的可能性。早在今年一月，就有不少博主透露了苹果计划在2021年发布支持Touch ID和Face ID双解锁功能iPhone的消息，而相关供应链厂商给出“不予置评”的答复，让网友们感觉更像是“变相实锤”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7fca321658916961cd3e1c87313790\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>技术方面，2020年11月，苹果曾经提交了一则专利。在专利文件上苹果描述称，他们研发了一项名为 “通过电子设备显示屏进行短波红外光学成像 ”的技术，该技术可以在不重新引入实体Home键的情况下，利用红外光和穿透式显示屏成像技术，将Touch ID重新添加到iPhone上。</p>\n<p>事实上，这并不是苹果第一次提交有关指纹识别的专利，从2017年开始，苹果每年都会向政府提交指纹识别的相关研究专利。苹果也没有在硬件上放弃Touch ID，在2020年9月的发布会上，新款iPad Air就因为成本原因没有采用Face ID技术，破天荒地使用了侧边指纹。由此可见，苹果确实有屏下指纹识别技术的储备。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab835daadeb290b6afe739a894546cf\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>问题来了，苹果明明有了不用触摸的Face ID，为何还要在iPhone上使用屏下Touch ID呢？</p>\n<p>诚然，Face ID很方便，只需将人脸对准手机，即可完成解锁、在线支付等，给用户提供了一种无感的交互体验，但是这并不代表它没有缺点。例如疫情期间，大家出门都会佩戴口罩，在这种情况下Face ID的识别效率就会大打折扣，导致用户经常手动输入6位数密码来解锁。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974ec913f5287215259d3181c5bcf195\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，Face ID还是非常讲究解锁姿势的。一般来说，只有在光照充足、当人脸与iPhone处于同一水平位置时，Face ID才可以解锁成功。在一些暗光环境或特定的角度下，例如你将手机放在桌面，将手机平放在桌面又或者是你侧躺在床上，Face ID解锁成功的几率也会下降不少。</p>\n<p>作为对比，Touch ID就不会遇到这种情况。只要将手指放在指定识别区域内，即可完成解锁，不仅减少了解锁失败的概率，还省去了手动输入密码的麻烦。正如那些分析师所言，从目前的信息来看，苹果完全有可能会在未来的iPhone中增加Touch ID，而它不断提交的专利也在告诉我们：苹果并没有对Face ID感到完全满意。</p>\n<p><b>这就是下一代iPhone</b></p>\n<p>如果Touch ID即将回归，那我们会迎来一款怎样的iPhone？</p>\n<p>外观设计方面，根据外媒9to5Mac报道，和前代产品相比，下一代iPhone的设计变化不大，依然是熟悉的正面刘海屏幕、方方正正的直角边框还有延续至今的Lightning接口。由于电池容量扩大，iPhone 13在重量和厚度上会略微增加，13的刘海也可能会缩小，它将会“变扁”，在纵向上收窄，宽度保持不变。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07607e308eddf89176315f24a4d35fc7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>屏幕方面，据外媒MacRumors报道，iPhone 13系列并不会全系标配高刷屏。只有iPhone 13 Pro、iPhone 13 Pro Max系列才会采用120Hz的高刷屏，而传统数字系列的屏幕依旧是60Hz。此外，这两款高端机型可能会配备LTPO OLED面板，支持自适应刷新率，以此达到节省功耗的效果。</p>\n<p>讲到屏幕，就不得不聊下iPhone 13系列的刘海。从目前爆出的最新渲染图来看，iPhone 13 Pro的屏幕刘海部分大幅缩减。屏幕刘海体积缩小，同样有助于提升视觉体验，这也就意味着iPhone 13 Pro系列的屏幕可以显示更多的内容，刘海对屏幕遮挡的影响也会随之减小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/445863198c55d48a22a574f9eda54055\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>最后，按照此前多方预测的消息，下一代iPhone的升级将集中在外观和影像系统上。根据台媒DigiTimes最新发布的信息，iPhone 13全系列机型均标配传感器位移式光学图像防抖功能。遗憾的是，该机主摄很可能依然是1200万像素，只有两款Pro系列的主摄会升级为6P镜头，光圈也进一步增大，并且支持自动对焦，这些升级或许能够弥补此前iPhone Pro系列在超广角夜景拍摄上的劣势。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dd41612eb37ba30cd58e9d5090b0e74\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>从目前的情报来看，小雷认为Touch ID回归的机会确实不小。从用户需求的角度来看，根据外媒SellCell.com的一项调查，目前绝大多数苹果用户期待的功能是Touch ID的回归，占比高达21%。其他的高刷屏幕、更大电池、更小刘海都只能屈居其后。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55dd004ca467b5f82c2a76f882bb5482\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>技术方面，目前市面上的屏下指纹技术已经趋于成熟。根据供应链数据，在安卓厂商的不断推动下，汇顶的光学指纹模组在短短几年间已经实现了研发飞跃，响应速度不断加快，模组价格变得越来越低。如果屏下指纹方案对比Face ID成本更低、观感更优秀，那苹果还有什么理由不用呢？</p>\n<p>如果下一代iPhone真的加入了屏下Touch ID，那么说明苹果确实有在为用户考虑。对于讨厌刘海屏的用户来说，苹果能够回归Touch ID无疑是一件好事。有着苹果的背书，新iPhone可以很轻易地接入原有的识别系统。以后，即便出门在外也不用被指纹困扰，躺在床上不必手动输入密码，就连支付也能一按搞定，一切都是那么美好。</p>","source":"lsy1582507589608","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>iPhone 13用上指纹识别了，真能干掉刘海！？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\niPhone 13用上指纹识别了，真能干掉刘海！？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 23:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-23/doc-ikqciyzk1421263.shtml><strong>雷科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>下一代iPhone的传闻，在整个数码圈再度兴起波澜。\n根据国内媒体《科创板日报》报道，供应链方面的消息称，下一代iPhone手机即将在今年9月份发布，这款产品可能会被命名为iPhone 12s或者iPhone 13。据悉，不同于iPhone 12系列，下一代iPhone系列的设计、屏幕、相机配置都将迎来全面升级，并有望首次加入屏下指纹解锁技术。\n无独有偶，前段时间美国媒体《Tom‘s Guide》...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-23/doc-ikqciyzk1421263.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12379a9884b4da1581b2341ae272c330","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-23/doc-ikqciyzk1421263.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152958237","content_text":"下一代iPhone的传闻，在整个数码圈再度兴起波澜。\n根据国内媒体《科创板日报》报道，供应链方面的消息称，下一代iPhone手机即将在今年9月份发布，这款产品可能会被命名为iPhone 12s或者iPhone 13。据悉，不同于iPhone 12系列，下一代iPhone系列的设计、屏幕、相机配置都将迎来全面升级，并有望首次加入屏下指纹解锁技术。\n无独有偶，前段时间美国媒体《Tom‘s Guide》也曾爆料称，苹果正在为下一代iPhone 13研发屏内指纹技术，这一功能将与Face ID一起作为辅助生物识别功能，彻底取代密码的存在。\n关于苹果未来机型的种种爆料，也让我们愈加好奇下一代iPhone的形态。\nTouch ID要回来了？\n果粉想要Touch ID，似乎并不是什么新鲜事。\n所谓Touch ID，其实就是苹果公司的一种指纹识别技术。早在2013年，苹果公司在iPhone 5s上首次实装Touch iD功能，该功能便以其识别灵敏、安全性高的优势，俘获了一大批果粉的喜爱。随后，该功能更是在iPad和Mac等设备上出现，同样饱受果粉的欢迎。\n\n遗憾的是，2017年，苹果推出了旗下首款全面屏机型iPhone X。为了让iPhone彻底摆脱Home键，苹果开始逐步淘汰Touch ID指纹识别，转而采用Face ID面部识别功能。至此，iPhone系列产品线告别Touch iD达到3年之久，直到2020年iPhone SE 2020的出现。\n现在看来，虽然苹果说过“我们不会做第二套方案”，但在Face ID量产三年后，苹果确实在认真考虑屏下指纹的可能性。早在今年一月，就有不少博主透露了苹果计划在2021年发布支持Touch ID和Face ID双解锁功能iPhone的消息，而相关供应链厂商给出“不予置评”的答复，让网友们感觉更像是“变相实锤”。\n\n技术方面，2020年11月，苹果曾经提交了一则专利。在专利文件上苹果描述称，他们研发了一项名为 “通过电子设备显示屏进行短波红外光学成像 ”的技术，该技术可以在不重新引入实体Home键的情况下，利用红外光和穿透式显示屏成像技术，将Touch ID重新添加到iPhone上。\n事实上，这并不是苹果第一次提交有关指纹识别的专利，从2017年开始，苹果每年都会向政府提交指纹识别的相关研究专利。苹果也没有在硬件上放弃Touch ID，在2020年9月的发布会上，新款iPad Air就因为成本原因没有采用Face ID技术，破天荒地使用了侧边指纹。由此可见，苹果确实有屏下指纹识别技术的储备。\n\n问题来了，苹果明明有了不用触摸的Face ID，为何还要在iPhone上使用屏下Touch ID呢？\n诚然，Face ID很方便，只需将人脸对准手机，即可完成解锁、在线支付等，给用户提供了一种无感的交互体验，但是这并不代表它没有缺点。例如疫情期间，大家出门都会佩戴口罩，在这种情况下Face ID的识别效率就会大打折扣，导致用户经常手动输入6位数密码来解锁。\n\n此外，Face ID还是非常讲究解锁姿势的。一般来说，只有在光照充足、当人脸与iPhone处于同一水平位置时，Face ID才可以解锁成功。在一些暗光环境或特定的角度下，例如你将手机放在桌面，将手机平放在桌面又或者是你侧躺在床上，Face ID解锁成功的几率也会下降不少。\n作为对比，Touch ID就不会遇到这种情况。只要将手指放在指定识别区域内，即可完成解锁，不仅减少了解锁失败的概率，还省去了手动输入密码的麻烦。正如那些分析师所言，从目前的信息来看，苹果完全有可能会在未来的iPhone中增加Touch ID，而它不断提交的专利也在告诉我们：苹果并没有对Face ID感到完全满意。\n这就是下一代iPhone\n如果Touch ID即将回归，那我们会迎来一款怎样的iPhone？\n外观设计方面，根据外媒9to5Mac报道，和前代产品相比，下一代iPhone的设计变化不大，依然是熟悉的正面刘海屏幕、方方正正的直角边框还有延续至今的Lightning接口。由于电池容量扩大，iPhone 13在重量和厚度上会略微增加，13的刘海也可能会缩小，它将会“变扁”，在纵向上收窄，宽度保持不变。\n\n屏幕方面，据外媒MacRumors报道，iPhone 13系列并不会全系标配高刷屏。只有iPhone 13 Pro、iPhone 13 Pro Max系列才会采用120Hz的高刷屏，而传统数字系列的屏幕依旧是60Hz。此外，这两款高端机型可能会配备LTPO OLED面板，支持自适应刷新率，以此达到节省功耗的效果。\n讲到屏幕，就不得不聊下iPhone 13系列的刘海。从目前爆出的最新渲染图来看，iPhone 13 Pro的屏幕刘海部分大幅缩减。屏幕刘海体积缩小，同样有助于提升视觉体验，这也就意味着iPhone 13 Pro系列的屏幕可以显示更多的内容，刘海对屏幕遮挡的影响也会随之减小。\n\n最后，按照此前多方预测的消息，下一代iPhone的升级将集中在外观和影像系统上。根据台媒DigiTimes最新发布的信息，iPhone 13全系列机型均标配传感器位移式光学图像防抖功能。遗憾的是，该机主摄很可能依然是1200万像素，只有两款Pro系列的主摄会升级为6P镜头，光圈也进一步增大，并且支持自动对焦，这些升级或许能够弥补此前iPhone Pro系列在超广角夜景拍摄上的劣势。\n\n总结\n从目前的情报来看，小雷认为Touch ID回归的机会确实不小。从用户需求的角度来看，根据外媒SellCell.com的一项调查，目前绝大多数苹果用户期待的功能是Touch ID的回归，占比高达21%。其他的高刷屏幕、更大电池、更小刘海都只能屈居其后。\n\n技术方面，目前市面上的屏下指纹技术已经趋于成熟。根据供应链数据，在安卓厂商的不断推动下，汇顶的光学指纹模组在短短几年间已经实现了研发飞跃，响应速度不断加快，模组价格变得越来越低。如果屏下指纹方案对比Face ID成本更低、观感更优秀，那苹果还有什么理由不用呢？\n如果下一代iPhone真的加入了屏下Touch ID，那么说明苹果确实有在为用户考虑。对于讨厌刘海屏的用户来说，苹果能够回归Touch ID无疑是一件好事。有着苹果的背书，新iPhone可以很轻易地接入原有的识别系统。以后，即便出门在外也不用被指纹困扰，躺在床上不必手动输入密码，就连支付也能一按搞定，一切都是那么美好。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180247803,"gmtCreate":1623208996902,"gmtModify":1631888554775,"author":{"id":"3576938493543528","authorId":"3576938493543528","name":"jack1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ecf411613054111bd306aa63abaa56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576938493543528","idStr":"3576938493543528"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MICT\">$Micronet Enertec Technologies I(MICT)$</a>,❤️","listText":"<a 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