5e2af9fa的个人主页 - 老虎社区

5e2af9fa

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2021-05-03

Haisass

2021-04-27

Good ah

2021-04-27

Lol the results were not disappointing. What is the writer on about? Did he even analyse the financial report???

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-25

Hjhjn

2021-04-25

$TAL Education Group(TAL)$ahhh

2021-04-24

Bad

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-24

Why

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-24

Good ah

2021-04-24

No good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-24

Notrch bad

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-24

Tess cury

2021-04-23

$TAL Education Group(TAL)$Good

2021-04-22

$TAL Education Group(TAL)$Huat ah

2021-04-22

Huat ah

2021-04-21

Lolol

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-21

Hujhh

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-21

Good ah

2021-04-19

Lousy ah

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-19

No good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-19

Like shit ah

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What is the writer on about? Did he even analyse the financial report???","listText":"Lol the results were not disappointing. What is the writer on about? Did he even analyse the financial report???","text":"Lol the results were not disappointing. What is the writer on about? Did he even analyse the financial report???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377872198","repostId":"1152045902","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379523348,"gmtCreate":1618773644384,"gmtModify":1634291040821,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lousy ah","listText":"Lousy ah","text":"Lousy ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379523348","repostId":"2128868471","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376983213,"gmtCreate":1619080076532,"gmtModify":1634288713934,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>Huat ah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>Huat ah","text":"$TAL Education Group(TAL)$Huat ah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d47faa4aecc31f5ff3dbab52157b43","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376983213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370314459,"gmtCreate":1618551825071,"gmtModify":1634292125870,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice oner","listText":"Nice oner","text":"Nice oner","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370314459","repostId":"1142633815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142633815","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618550753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142633815?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 13:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142633815","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial perfo","content":"<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一块拼图：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二块拼图：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Apple Stock Price Double In 3 Years?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在3年内翻倍？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票终于在第二财季财报公布之前苏醒，一些投资者可能梦想更大。例如，苹果公司的价格会在未来三年内翻一番吗？</blockquote></p><p> Apple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在跌破130美元水平近两个月后终于突破了130美元水平，而且股价似乎仍有一些燃料需要燃烧。为什么不梦想得更大，并预测股票在三年内的走势呢？</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.</p><p><blockquote>如今，这位苹果专家进行了一些粗略的计算，以解释财务业绩和估值倍数如何结合起来，使AAPL到2024年达到250美元，年化回报率约为25%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d62ab113273e78aea147040ddfd287\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\"><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>First piece of the puzzle: valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一块拼图：估值</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.</p><p><blockquote>有几种不同的方法来估计股票未来的价值。在这种情况下，我将保持简单，并使用传统的市盈率或市盈率方法。</blockquote></p><p> P/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率是一个简单的指标，包含两部分：分子中的股价和分母中的每股收益(EPS)。简单代数表明，股票的未来价格可以通过将假设的市盈率乘以实际或估计的每股收益来计算。</blockquote></p><p> The graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，苹果的往绩市盈率（即使用过去盈利数据得出的估值倍数）已从2020年下半年约40倍的高点回落。坏消息是，即使是目前的36倍，这个数字也远高于历史平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d180bf2e7bab467da1e79a1eada870d1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"555\"><span>Figure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果的市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果现在的市盈率比过去高得多是有充分理由的。其中一些包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Future growth opportunities have expanded with&nbsp;the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car</li>  <li>Apple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s</li>  <li>Services, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business</li>  <li>Interest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples</li> </ul> That said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着5G升级周期、服务组合的扩展、Mac和iPad细分市场的重生，甚至传闻中的苹果汽车，未来的增长机会也在扩大</li><li>与2010年代中期相比，苹果的财务业绩不再那么依赖单一产品类别（iPhone）</li><li>服务以其更高的利润率和更可预测的收入流入，已成为业务中更重要的一部分</li><li>利率已降至有史以来最接近于零的水平，这是估值倍数的推动力</li></ul>也就是说，我发现主要基于估值倍数扩张来预测苹果股价上涨是不现实的。我认为，35倍左右的可持续跟踪市盈率大约是人们在未来几年合理预期的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second piece of the puzzle: earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二块拼图：收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Valuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>然而，估值倍数并不能说明全部情况。苹果股价也可能因未来的财务业绩而上涨，特别是如果业绩超出当前预期的话。</blockquote></p><p> According to our friends at&nbsp;Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.</p><p><blockquote>据我们在Seeking Alpha的朋友称，分析师目前预计2024年每股收益将达到5.38美元。作为参考，苹果2020财年盈利达到3.28美元。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们回到2024年9月，大约三年后，苹果财年结束时。根据两个假设，当时苹果股票的价值应该约为每股190美元：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024</li>  <li>The P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times</li> </ol> Therefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>公司满足当前2024财年每股收益预期</li><li>市盈率保持接近当前水平，为35倍</li></ol>因此，苹果股价要主要依靠财务业绩在三年内翻倍，这家库比蒂诺公司需要实现超过7美元的每股收益。也就是说：苹果需要加快速度并提供22%的盈利，而不是以预期的13%左右的年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> This is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这是一个相当高的要求。自iPhone和iPad这两个本质上是苹果发明的革命性产品类别诞生以来，从未出现过这种水平的三年盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:</p><p><blockquote>因此，苹果股价要在三年内达到250美元，而估值倍数却没有攀升至前所未有的水平，可能需要发生以下任何（或组合）才能使每股收益飙升：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>An outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;</li>  <li>A sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be&nbsp;augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;</li>  <li>Aggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.</li>  <li>Acceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>出色的5G超级周期，支持iPhone销量增长可与2010年代初的水平相媲美，当时该产品类别仍处于增长生命周期的中期；</li><li>一次大规模的、改变游戏规则的产品发布，增加了目前不存在的收入。最有可能的候选者是增强或虚拟现实可穿戴设备，或苹果汽车；</li><li>主要通过服务提供以及可穿戴和互补产品的交叉销售，积极利用苹果的用户群货币化。就服务业而言，部门收入需要在三年或更短的时间内翻一番，而不是预期的五年。</li><li>加快股票回购力度。最近，苹果以每年5%至6%的速度退役其股票。我估计，将这一比率提高一倍就足以将每股收益提高到需要的水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/could-apple-stock-price-double-in-3-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142633815","content_text":"Apple stock has finally awakened ahead of fiscal second quarter earnings, and some investors may be dreaming bigger. For example, could AAPL price double within the next three years?\nApple stockhas finally breached the $130 level, after spending nearly two months below it – and shares still seem to have some fuel to burn. Why not dream bigger, and project where the stock could be in, say, three years?\nToday, the Apple Maven does some back-of-the-envelope calculations to explain how financial performance and valuation multiples can possibly combine to send AAPL to $250 by 2024, for a respectable annualized return of about 25%.\nFigure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, California.\nFirst piece of the puzzle: valuation\nThere are several different ways to estimate how much a stock may be worth in the future. In this case, I will keep things simple, and use the traditional price-to-earnings, or P/E ratio methodology.\nP/E is a simple metric that contains two pieces: stock price in the numerator, and earnings per share (EPS) in the denominator. Simple algebra suggests that the future price of a stock can be calculated by multiplying an assumed P/E multiple by actual or estimated EPS.\nThe graph below shows that Apple’s trailing P/E (that is, the valuation multiple derived using past earnings figures) has pulled back from the second half 2020 highs of around 40 times. The bad news is that, even at the current 36 times, the figure is much higher than it has historically been, on average.\nFigure 2: Apple's Price/Earnings.\nThere are good reasons why Apple now trades at a much higher P/E multiple than it did in the past. A few of them include:\n\nFuture growth opportunities have expanded with the 5G upgrade cycle, the expansion of the services portfolio, the rebirth of the Mac and iPad segments,and even the rumored Apple Car\nApple’s financial performance is less dependent on one single product category – the iPhone – than it was in the mid 2010s\nServices, with its higher margins and more predictable revenue inflow, have become a much more important piece of the business\nInterest rates have come down to the closest that they have ever been to zero, which is a tailwind to valuation multiples\n\nThat said, I find it unrealistic to project an increase in Apple stock price based primarily on valuation multiple expansion. I believe that a sustainable trailing P/E of around 35 times is about as high as one should reasonably expect to see in the next few years.\nSecond piece of the puzzle: earnings\nValuation multiples do not tell the whole story, however. Apple stock can also rise on future financial performance, especially if the results beat current expectations.\nAccording to our friends at Seeking Alpha, analysts currently project 2024 earnings per share to land at $5.38. For reference, Apple’s fiscal 2020 earnings reached $3.28.\nNow, let’s travel in time to September 2024, roughly three years from now, at the end of Apple’s fiscal year. At that moment, Apple stock should be worth about $190 per share, given two assumptions:\n\nThe company meets current EPS expectations for fiscal 2024\nThe P/E multiple stays close to current levels, at 35 times\n\nTherefore, for Apple stock price to double in three years primarily on the back of financial performance, the Cupertino company needs to deliver EPS of over $7. That is: rather than growing earnings at an expected annual pace of about 13%, Apple needs to pick up the pace and offer 22% instead.\nThis is quite a tall order, in my view. Three-year growth in earnings at these levels has not happened since the very early days of the iPhone and iPad, two revolutionary product categories that Apple essentially invented.\nTherefore, for Apple stock to get to $250 in three years without valuation multiples climbing to levels never seen before, any (or a combination of) the following would probably need to happen to send EPS through the roof:\n\nAn outstanding 5G super cycle that supports iPhone sales increase comparable to early 2010s levels, when the product category was still in the middle of its growth life cycle;\nA sizable, game-changing product launch that adds revenues where none currently exist. The most likely candidates would be augmented or virtual realitywearable devices,or the Apple Car;\nAggressive monetization of Apple’s user base, primarily through service offerings and cross-selling of wearable and complementary products. In the case of services, segment revenues would somehow need to double in three years or less,rather than the expected five.\nAcceleration in the share repurchase efforts. Lately, Apple has been retiring its stock at a pace of 5% to 6% per year. I estimate that doubling this rate would be enough to boost EPS to where it needs to be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375997382,"gmtCreate":1619273030346,"gmtModify":1634287341237,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why","listText":"Why","text":"Why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375997382","repostId":"1172227414","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379523961,"gmtCreate":1618773630953,"gmtModify":1634291040946,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No good","listText":"No good","text":"No good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379523961","repostId":"2128787868","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379323925,"gmtCreate":1618682076767,"gmtModify":1634291440959,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No good","listText":"No good","text":"No good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379323925","repostId":"1179283253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348098051,"gmtCreate":1617864661473,"gmtModify":1634296072936,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No good","listText":"No good","text":"No good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348098051","repostId":"1158517084","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341392152,"gmtCreate":1617779113576,"gmtModify":1634296555962,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341392152","repostId":"2125271673","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375994609,"gmtCreate":1619272931601,"gmtModify":1634287341963,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Notrch bad","listText":"Notrch bad","text":"Notrch bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375994609","repostId":"2129035447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379329496,"gmtCreate":1618681949615,"gmtModify":1634291441324,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>Sad","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$TAL Education Group(TAL)$</a>Sad","text":"$TAL Education Group(TAL)$Sad","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84775f0f9d914edd43363dd8a8c18e45","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379329496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370502575,"gmtCreate":1618594242497,"gmtModify":1634291855326,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No ffoo ah","listText":"No ffoo ah","text":"No ffoo ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370502575","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108551358,"gmtCreate":1620044307574,"gmtModify":1634208297297,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haisass","listText":"Haisass","text":"Haisass","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108551358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377540824,"gmtCreate":1619538810868,"gmtModify":1634211935602,"author":{"id":"3576998804963004","authorId":"3576998804963004","name":"5e2af9fa","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576998804963004","idStr":"3576998804963004"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good 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