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Eeron

Eeron

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2021-06-19

I see

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2021-06-26

I see

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2021-06-25

I see

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2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-23

I see

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2021-06-18

I see

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2021-06-17

Nice

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2021-06-15

Damn

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2021-06-28

Ok

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2021-06-27

I see

Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>

2021-06-22

I see

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2021-06-20

Haha

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2021-06-21

I see

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2021-06-17

I see

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2021-06-15

Damn

Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和“优秀亿万富翁”的神话</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Hi

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2021-06-17

I see

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2021-06-16

Hi

Crypto Die-Hards Built a $90 Billion Wall Street on the Internet<blockquote>加密货币顽固分子在互联网上建立了价值900亿美元的华尔街</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Ok

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2021-06-28

Hmmmmmmm

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The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. 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see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167955330","repostId":"1135860567","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135860567","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624243350,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135860567?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Troubled Companies Take Page From AMC Playbook in Seeking Stock-Market Lifelines<blockquote>陷入困境的公司借鉴AMC的剧本寻求股市生命线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135860567","media":"WSJ","summary":"The frenzied stock-buying activity that may have saved AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.from bankruptcy is opening up a potential escape hatch for other troubled borrowers as well.More companies with steep financial challenges are seeking a lifeline from equity markets, eager to capitalize on thesurge of interest in stock buyingfrom nonprofessional investors. Earlier this month, coal miner Peabody Energy Corp.,offshore drilling contractor Transocean Ltd.and retailer Express Inc.,all announced plan","content":"<p>The frenzied stock-buying activity that may have saved&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.from bankruptcy is opening up a potential escape hatch for other troubled borrowers as well.</p><p><blockquote>疯狂的股票购买活动可能使AMC院线控股公司免于破产，也为其他陷入困境的借款人打开了潜在的逃生通道。</blockquote></p><p> More companies with steep financial challenges are seeking a lifeline from equity markets, eager to capitalize on thesurge of interest in stock buyingfrom nonprofessional investors. Earlier this month, coal miner&nbsp;Peabody Energy Corp.,offshore drilling contractor&nbsp;Transocean Ltd.and retailer&nbsp;Express Inc.,all announced plans to sell stock, betting equity markets will support them despite heavy debt loads, recent losses and industry headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多面临严峻财务挑战的公司正在从股市寻求生命线，渴望利用非专业投资者对股票购买兴趣的激增。本月早些时候，煤矿公司皮博迪能源公司(Peabody Energy Corp.)、海上钻井承包商Transocean Ltd.和零售商Express Inc.都宣布了出售股票的计划，尽管债务负担沉重、近期亏损和行业逆风，但他们押注股市将为他们提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Selling stock isn’t the typical way for distressed companies to grab a lifeline. More often, they are forced to seek out rescue loans, sell off assets or pursue a merger, which can be difficult because of their existing debt.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票并不是陷入困境的公司抓住生命线的典型方式。更常见的是，他们被迫寻求救援贷款、出售资产或寻求合并，由于他们现有的债务，这可能很困难。</blockquote></p><p> But equity markets now are more open to supporting troubled issuers, in large part because of risk-hungry individual investors eager to speculate, according to bankers and investors following the trend.</p><p><blockquote>但跟随这一趋势的银行家和投资者表示，股市现在对支持陷入困境的发行人更加开放，这在很大程度上是因为渴望风险的个人投资者渴望投机。</blockquote></p><p> The planned equity sales, if successful, mark another way nonprofessional investors have reshaped financial markets since they began to demonstrate their collective power last year,creating opportunitiesfor finance executives in the process.</p><p><blockquote>计划中的股权出售如果成功，将标志着非专业投资者自去年开始展示其集体力量以来重塑金融市场的另一种方式，在此过程中为金融高管创造机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a new phenomenon for some of these distressed companies,” said Scott Hartman, partner and co-head of corporate and traded credit at asset manager Värde Partners. “If I were in their seat, it makes a lot of sense to take equity capital when they can.”</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Värde Partners合伙人兼企业和交易信贷联席主管斯科特·哈特曼(Scott Hartman)表示：“对于其中一些陷入困境的公司来说，这是一个新现象。”“如果我处在他们的位置，那么在可以的时候采取股权资本是很有意义的。”</blockquote></p><p> Peabody,Transoceanand Express are seeking to replicate—on a smaller scale—the capital-raising success of AMC, a favorite pick of individual investors who gather in online investing forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets.</p><p><blockquote>Peabody、Transoceanand Express正在寻求以较小的规模复制AMC的融资成功，AMC是聚集在Reddit的WallStreetBets等在线投资论坛上的个人投资者最喜欢的选择。</blockquote></p><p> AMC raised $2.2 billionthrough several stock salesduring the pandemic, largely to an enthusiastic following of day traders, despite warnings it was at risk of bankruptcy.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在疫情期间通过多次股票销售筹集了22亿美元，主要面向日内交易者的热情追随者，尽管有人警告该公司面临破产风险。</blockquote></p><p> It is difficult to classify even a highly leveraged company as distressed when its access to equity is “seemingly infinite,” said Andy Moore, chief executive of B. Riley Securities Inc. His firm is acting as sales agent for Peabody, which earlier this month kicked off an effort to sell up to 12.5 million shares through an “at-the-market” offering. In such offerings, companies sell shares bit-by-bit at market prices in a manner that is accessible to individual investors as well as institutional ones.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities Inc.首席执行官安迪·摩尔(Andy Moore)表示，当一家高杠杆公司获得股权的机会“似乎是无限的”时，很难将其归类为陷入困境。他的公司担任皮博迪的销售代理，皮博迪本月早些时候开始通过“市场”发行出售多达1250万股股票。在此类发行中，公司以个人投资者和机构投资者都可以接受的方式以市场价格一点一点地出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> Since exiting bankruptcy in 2017, Peabody has faced difficulties as utilities rely less on coal, and it restructured debt in February to avert a default. The company’s bonds trade at discounts of between 69 and 78 cents on the dollar, indicating market doubts they will be fully repaid. It reported an $80 million net loss in the first quarter amid continued weak conditions for the coal industry.</p><p><blockquote>自2017年退出破产以来，由于公用事业公司对煤炭的依赖减少，皮博迪面临着困难，并于2月份重组了债务以避免违约。该公司债券的交易价格较美元折价69至78美分，表明市场怀疑这些债券是否会得到全额偿还。由于煤炭行业持续疲软，该公司报告第一季度净亏损8000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Express, the apparel retailer, borrowed money from private-equity firm Sycamore Partners in January to stockpile cash for surviving the pandemic. Then the company launched an ATM stock sale earlier this month, aiming to sell up to 15 million new shares, despite reporting a loss of $405 million for the last fiscal year as a result of the pandemic and its impact on shopping.</p><p><blockquote>服装零售商Express在一月份向私募股权公司Sycamore Partners借了钱，以储备现金以度过疫情。随后，该公司在本月早些时候启动了ATM股票销售，目标是出售多达1500万股新股，尽管该公司报告称，由于疫情及其对购物的影响，上一财年亏损了4.05亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, offshore drillerTransoceanjoined in with an offering of up to $400 million in shares despite a junk credit rating, more than $7 billion in debt, andongoing creditor litigationover its restructuring efforts last year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，海上钻探商Transocean加入了发行高达4亿美元的股票的行列，尽管其信用评级为垃圾级，债务超过70亿美元，并且去年的重组工作仍在进行债权人诉讼。</blockquote></p><p> Peabody and Express didn’t respond to requests for comment. Transocean referred inquiries to its securities filings.</p><p><blockquote>皮博迪和快报没有回应置评请求。Transocean将询问提交给其证券备案。</blockquote></p><p> Jamie Zimmerman, founder and CEO of hedge-fund manager Litespeed Management LLC, said that some troubled companies may be unable to raise new debt, and selling stock may be their only path to obtain financing.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金管理公司Litespeed Management LLC创始人兼首席执行官Jamie Zimmerman表示，一些陷入困境的公司可能无法筹集新债务，出售股票可能是他们获得融资的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t get unless you ask,” said Dan Zwirn, founder and chief executive of asset manager Arena Investors LP. “If I’m structurally insolvent and can’t refinance myself into extending the life of the enterprise, I might as well take this shot.”</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Arena Investors LP创始人兼首席执行官Dan Zwirn表示：“除非你提出要求，否则你不会得到。”“如果我在结构性上资不抵债，无法为自己再融资来延长企业的寿命，我不妨打这一针。”</blockquote></p><p> “With this infusion of retail people, there are more counterparties for such a transaction,” Mr. Zwirn added.</p><p><blockquote>“随着零售人员的注入，此类交易的交易对手更多，”兹沃恩先生补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Inflows of capital from individual investors, some using money from federal stimulus funds to open trading accounts, have buoyed the broader stock market, driving gains of more than10% year-to-datefor the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者的资金流入（其中一些人使用联邦刺激基金的资金开设交易账户）提振了更广泛的股市，推动道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今上涨了10%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ share of overall U.S. equities trading volume rose last year to roughly double what it was a decade before andcontinues to grow. At times, their bets on beaten-down stocks havebeat out institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>去年，个人投资者在美国股票总交易量中的份额上升至十年前的大约两倍，并且还在继续增长。有时，他们对遭受重创的股票的押注击败了机构投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Howard Fischer, a securities lawyer with Moses &amp; Singer LLP, said that the underlying economic health now seems less important than the unbridled enthusiasm of individual investors, even if that enthusiasm is divorced from any rational economic analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Moses&amp;Singer LLP律师事务所的证券律师霍华德·费舍尔表示，潜在的经济健康状况现在似乎没有个人投资者肆无忌惮的热情重要，即使这种热情脱离了任何理性的经济分析。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Hertz Global Holdings Inc.tried to ride a wave of interest from retail traders to finance itself last year while it was under bankruptcy protection, and ended up scrapping the effort under pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>赫兹全球控股公司(Hertz Global Holdings Inc.)去年在破产保护期间试图利用散户交易员的兴趣为自己融资，但最终在美国证券交易委员会的压力下放弃了这一努力。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish individual investors who bet on the business shortly after it filed for chapter 11 were vindicated when Hertz found buyers agreeing to pay up to $8 a share in value.</p><p><blockquote>当赫兹发现买家同意支付高达每股8美元的价值时，在该公司申请美国破产法第11章后不久押注该公司的看涨个人投资者被证明是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Adi Habbu, a director on the credit trading desk atBarclays PLC,said widespread bullishness in equity markets goes beyond retail traders, and is fueled by the economic recovery and the easing of pandemic restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行(Barclays PLC)信贷交易部门主管阿迪·哈布(Adi Habbu)表示，股市的普遍看涨情绪超出了散户交易者的范围，而且受到经济复苏和疫情限制放松的推动。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s certainly not a bad time to try,” he said. “The core trend is that there is positive reopening sentiment that is driven not just by retail but by institutional players as well.”</p><p><blockquote>“现在当然不是尝试的好时机，”他说。“核心趋势是积极的重新开放情绪，这不仅是由零售业推动的，也是由机构参与者推动的。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Troubled Companies Take Page From AMC Playbook in Seeking Stock-Market Lifelines<blockquote>陷入困境的公司借鉴AMC的剧本寻求股市生命线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTroubled Companies Take Page From AMC Playbook in Seeking Stock-Market Lifelines<blockquote>陷入困境的公司借鉴AMC的剧本寻求股市生命线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The frenzied stock-buying activity that may have saved&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.from bankruptcy is opening up a potential escape hatch for other troubled borrowers as well.</p><p><blockquote>疯狂的股票购买活动可能使AMC院线控股公司免于破产，也为其他陷入困境的借款人打开了潜在的逃生通道。</blockquote></p><p> More companies with steep financial challenges are seeking a lifeline from equity markets, eager to capitalize on thesurge of interest in stock buyingfrom nonprofessional investors. Earlier this month, coal miner&nbsp;Peabody Energy Corp.,offshore drilling contractor&nbsp;Transocean Ltd.and retailer&nbsp;Express Inc.,all announced plans to sell stock, betting equity markets will support them despite heavy debt loads, recent losses and industry headwinds.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多面临严峻财务挑战的公司正在从股市寻求生命线，渴望利用非专业投资者对股票购买兴趣的激增。本月早些时候，煤矿公司皮博迪能源公司(Peabody Energy Corp.)、海上钻井承包商Transocean Ltd.和零售商Express Inc.都宣布了出售股票的计划，尽管债务负担沉重、近期亏损和行业逆风，但他们押注股市将为他们提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Selling stock isn’t the typical way for distressed companies to grab a lifeline. More often, they are forced to seek out rescue loans, sell off assets or pursue a merger, which can be difficult because of their existing debt.</p><p><blockquote>出售股票并不是陷入困境的公司抓住生命线的典型方式。更常见的是，他们被迫寻求救援贷款、出售资产或寻求合并，由于他们现有的债务，这可能很困难。</blockquote></p><p> But equity markets now are more open to supporting troubled issuers, in large part because of risk-hungry individual investors eager to speculate, according to bankers and investors following the trend.</p><p><blockquote>但跟随这一趋势的银行家和投资者表示，股市现在对支持陷入困境的发行人更加开放，这在很大程度上是因为渴望风险的个人投资者渴望投机。</blockquote></p><p> The planned equity sales, if successful, mark another way nonprofessional investors have reshaped financial markets since they began to demonstrate their collective power last year,creating opportunitiesfor finance executives in the process.</p><p><blockquote>计划中的股权出售如果成功，将标志着非专业投资者自去年开始展示其集体力量以来重塑金融市场的另一种方式，在此过程中为金融高管创造机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a new phenomenon for some of these distressed companies,” said Scott Hartman, partner and co-head of corporate and traded credit at asset manager Värde Partners. “If I were in their seat, it makes a lot of sense to take equity capital when they can.”</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Värde Partners合伙人兼企业和交易信贷联席主管斯科特·哈特曼(Scott Hartman)表示：“对于其中一些陷入困境的公司来说，这是一个新现象。”“如果我处在他们的位置，那么在可以的时候采取股权资本是很有意义的。”</blockquote></p><p> Peabody,Transoceanand Express are seeking to replicate—on a smaller scale—the capital-raising success of AMC, a favorite pick of individual investors who gather in online investing forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets.</p><p><blockquote>Peabody、Transoceanand Express正在寻求以较小的规模复制AMC的融资成功，AMC是聚集在Reddit的WallStreetBets等在线投资论坛上的个人投资者最喜欢的选择。</blockquote></p><p> AMC raised $2.2 billionthrough several stock salesduring the pandemic, largely to an enthusiastic following of day traders, despite warnings it was at risk of bankruptcy.</p><p><blockquote>AMC在疫情期间通过多次股票销售筹集了22亿美元，主要面向日内交易者的热情追随者，尽管有人警告该公司面临破产风险。</blockquote></p><p> It is difficult to classify even a highly leveraged company as distressed when its access to equity is “seemingly infinite,” said Andy Moore, chief executive of B. Riley Securities Inc. His firm is acting as sales agent for Peabody, which earlier this month kicked off an effort to sell up to 12.5 million shares through an “at-the-market” offering. In such offerings, companies sell shares bit-by-bit at market prices in a manner that is accessible to individual investors as well as institutional ones.</p><p><blockquote>B.Riley Securities Inc.首席执行官安迪·摩尔(Andy Moore)表示，当一家高杠杆公司获得股权的机会“似乎是无限的”时，很难将其归类为陷入困境。他的公司担任皮博迪的销售代理，皮博迪本月早些时候开始通过“市场”发行出售多达1250万股股票。在此类发行中，公司以个人投资者和机构投资者都可以接受的方式以市场价格一点一点地出售股票。</blockquote></p><p> Since exiting bankruptcy in 2017, Peabody has faced difficulties as utilities rely less on coal, and it restructured debt in February to avert a default. The company’s bonds trade at discounts of between 69 and 78 cents on the dollar, indicating market doubts they will be fully repaid. It reported an $80 million net loss in the first quarter amid continued weak conditions for the coal industry.</p><p><blockquote>自2017年退出破产以来，由于公用事业公司对煤炭的依赖减少，皮博迪面临着困难，并于2月份重组了债务以避免违约。该公司债券的交易价格较美元折价69至78美分，表明市场怀疑这些债券是否会得到全额偿还。由于煤炭行业持续疲软，该公司报告第一季度净亏损8000万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Express, the apparel retailer, borrowed money from private-equity firm Sycamore Partners in January to stockpile cash for surviving the pandemic. Then the company launched an ATM stock sale earlier this month, aiming to sell up to 15 million new shares, despite reporting a loss of $405 million for the last fiscal year as a result of the pandemic and its impact on shopping.</p><p><blockquote>服装零售商Express在一月份向私募股权公司Sycamore Partners借了钱，以储备现金以度过疫情。随后，该公司在本月早些时候启动了ATM股票销售，目标是出售多达1500万股新股，尽管该公司报告称，由于疫情及其对购物的影响，上一财年亏损了4.05亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, offshore drillerTransoceanjoined in with an offering of up to $400 million in shares despite a junk credit rating, more than $7 billion in debt, andongoing creditor litigationover its restructuring efforts last year.</p><p><blockquote>周二，海上钻探商Transocean加入了发行高达4亿美元的股票的行列，尽管其信用评级为垃圾级，债务超过70亿美元，并且去年的重组工作仍在进行债权人诉讼。</blockquote></p><p> Peabody and Express didn’t respond to requests for comment. Transocean referred inquiries to its securities filings.</p><p><blockquote>皮博迪和快报没有回应置评请求。Transocean将询问提交给其证券备案。</blockquote></p><p> Jamie Zimmerman, founder and CEO of hedge-fund manager Litespeed Management LLC, said that some troubled companies may be unable to raise new debt, and selling stock may be their only path to obtain financing.</p><p><blockquote>对冲基金管理公司Litespeed Management LLC创始人兼首席执行官Jamie Zimmerman表示，一些陷入困境的公司可能无法筹集新债务，出售股票可能是他们获得融资的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t get unless you ask,” said Dan Zwirn, founder and chief executive of asset manager Arena Investors LP. “If I’m structurally insolvent and can’t refinance myself into extending the life of the enterprise, I might as well take this shot.”</p><p><blockquote>资产管理公司Arena Investors LP创始人兼首席执行官Dan Zwirn表示：“除非你提出要求，否则你不会得到。”“如果我在结构性上资不抵债，无法为自己再融资来延长企业的寿命，我不妨打这一针。”</blockquote></p><p> “With this infusion of retail people, there are more counterparties for such a transaction,” Mr. Zwirn added.</p><p><blockquote>“随着零售人员的注入，此类交易的交易对手更多，”兹沃恩先生补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Inflows of capital from individual investors, some using money from federal stimulus funds to open trading accounts, have buoyed the broader stock market, driving gains of more than10% year-to-datefor the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>个人投资者的资金流入（其中一些人使用联邦刺激基金的资金开设交易账户）提振了更广泛的股市，推动道琼斯工业平均指数和纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今上涨了10%以上。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors’ share of overall U.S. equities trading volume rose last year to roughly double what it was a decade before andcontinues to grow. At times, their bets on beaten-down stocks havebeat out institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>去年，个人投资者在美国股票总交易量中的份额上升至十年前的大约两倍，并且还在继续增长。有时，他们对遭受重创的股票的押注击败了机构投资者。</blockquote></p><p> Howard Fischer, a securities lawyer with Moses &amp; Singer LLP, said that the underlying economic health now seems less important than the unbridled enthusiasm of individual investors, even if that enthusiasm is divorced from any rational economic analysis.</p><p><blockquote>Moses&amp;Singer LLP律师事务所的证券律师霍华德·费舍尔表示，潜在的经济健康状况现在似乎没有个人投资者肆无忌惮的热情重要，即使这种热情脱离了任何理性的经济分析。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Hertz Global Holdings Inc.tried to ride a wave of interest from retail traders to finance itself last year while it was under bankruptcy protection, and ended up scrapping the effort under pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>赫兹全球控股公司(Hertz Global Holdings Inc.)去年在破产保护期间试图利用散户交易员的兴趣为自己融资，但最终在美国证券交易委员会的压力下放弃了这一努力。</blockquote></p><p> The bullish individual investors who bet on the business shortly after it filed for chapter 11 were vindicated when Hertz found buyers agreeing to pay up to $8 a share in value.</p><p><blockquote>当赫兹发现买家同意支付高达每股8美元的价值时，在该公司申请美国破产法第11章后不久押注该公司的看涨个人投资者被证明是正确的。</blockquote></p><p> Adi Habbu, a director on the credit trading desk atBarclays PLC,said widespread bullishness in equity markets goes beyond retail traders, and is fueled by the economic recovery and the easing of pandemic restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行(Barclays PLC)信贷交易部门主管阿迪·哈布(Adi Habbu)表示，股市的普遍看涨情绪超出了散户交易者的范围，而且受到经济复苏和疫情限制放松的推动。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s certainly not a bad time to try,” he said. “The core trend is that there is positive reopening sentiment that is driven not just by retail but by institutional players as well.”</p><p><blockquote>“现在当然不是尝试的好时机，”他说。“核心趋势是积极的重新开放情绪，这不仅是由零售业推动的，也是由机构参与者推动的。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/troubled-companies-take-page-from-amc-playbook-in-seeking-stock-market-lifelines-11624190402?mod=markets_lead_pos6\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","EXPR":"Express, Inc.","RIG":"Transocean Ltd.","BTU":"Peabody"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/troubled-companies-take-page-from-amc-playbook-in-seeking-stock-market-lifelines-11624190402?mod=markets_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135860567","content_text":"The frenzied stock-buying activity that may have saved AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.from bankruptcy is opening up a potential escape hatch for other troubled borrowers as well.\nMore companies with steep financial challenges are seeking a lifeline from equity markets, eager to capitalize on thesurge of interest in stock buyingfrom nonprofessional investors. Earlier this month, coal miner Peabody Energy Corp.,offshore drilling contractor Transocean Ltd.and retailer Express Inc.,all announced plans to sell stock, betting equity markets will support them despite heavy debt loads, recent losses and industry headwinds.\nSelling stock isn’t the typical way for distressed companies to grab a lifeline. More often, they are forced to seek out rescue loans, sell off assets or pursue a merger, which can be difficult because of their existing debt.\nBut equity markets now are more open to supporting troubled issuers, in large part because of risk-hungry individual investors eager to speculate, according to bankers and investors following the trend.\nThe planned equity sales, if successful, mark another way nonprofessional investors have reshaped financial markets since they began to demonstrate their collective power last year,creating opportunitiesfor finance executives in the process.\n“It’s a new phenomenon for some of these distressed companies,” said Scott Hartman, partner and co-head of corporate and traded credit at asset manager Värde Partners. “If I were in their seat, it makes a lot of sense to take equity capital when they can.”\nPeabody,Transoceanand Express are seeking to replicate—on a smaller scale—the capital-raising success of AMC, a favorite pick of individual investors who gather in online investing forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets.\nAMC raised $2.2 billionthrough several stock salesduring the pandemic, largely to an enthusiastic following of day traders, despite warnings it was at risk of bankruptcy.\nIt is difficult to classify even a highly leveraged company as distressed when its access to equity is “seemingly infinite,” said Andy Moore, chief executive of B. Riley Securities Inc. His firm is acting as sales agent for Peabody, which earlier this month kicked off an effort to sell up to 12.5 million shares through an “at-the-market” offering. In such offerings, companies sell shares bit-by-bit at market prices in a manner that is accessible to individual investors as well as institutional ones.\nSince exiting bankruptcy in 2017, Peabody has faced difficulties as utilities rely less on coal, and it restructured debt in February to avert a default. The company’s bonds trade at discounts of between 69 and 78 cents on the dollar, indicating market doubts they will be fully repaid. It reported an $80 million net loss in the first quarter amid continued weak conditions for the coal industry.\nExpress, the apparel retailer, borrowed money from private-equity firm Sycamore Partners in January to stockpile cash for surviving the pandemic. Then the company launched an ATM stock sale earlier this month, aiming to sell up to 15 million new shares, despite reporting a loss of $405 million for the last fiscal year as a result of the pandemic and its impact on shopping.\nOn Tuesday, offshore drillerTransoceanjoined in with an offering of up to $400 million in shares despite a junk credit rating, more than $7 billion in debt, andongoing creditor litigationover its restructuring efforts last year.\nPeabody and Express didn’t respond to requests for comment. Transocean referred inquiries to its securities filings.\nJamie Zimmerman, founder and CEO of hedge-fund manager Litespeed Management LLC, said that some troubled companies may be unable to raise new debt, and selling stock may be their only path to obtain financing.\n“You don’t get unless you ask,” said Dan Zwirn, founder and chief executive of asset manager Arena Investors LP. “If I’m structurally insolvent and can’t refinance myself into extending the life of the enterprise, I might as well take this shot.”\n“With this infusion of retail people, there are more counterparties for such a transaction,” Mr. Zwirn added.\nInflows of capital from individual investors, some using money from federal stimulus funds to open trading accounts, have buoyed the broader stock market, driving gains of more than10% year-to-datefor the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index.\nIndividual investors’ share of overall U.S. equities trading volume rose last year to roughly double what it was a decade before andcontinues to grow. At times, their bets on beaten-down stocks havebeat out institutional investors.\nHoward Fischer, a securities lawyer with Moses & Singer LLP, said that the underlying economic health now seems less important than the unbridled enthusiasm of individual investors, even if that enthusiasm is divorced from any rational economic analysis.\nHertz Global Holdings Inc.tried to ride a wave of interest from retail traders to finance itself last year while it was under bankruptcy protection, and ended up scrapping the effort under pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nThe bullish individual investors who bet on the business shortly after it filed for chapter 11 were vindicated when Hertz found buyers agreeing to pay up to $8 a share in value.\nAdi Habbu, a director on the credit trading desk atBarclays PLC,said widespread bullishness in equity markets goes beyond retail traders, and is fueled by the economic recovery and the easing of pandemic restrictions.\n“It’s certainly not 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see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124158341","repostId":"1137119316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137119316","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624754401,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137119316?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120870461,"gmtCreate":1624320043453,"gmtModify":1631891576522,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120870461","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165504693,"gmtCreate":1624150068512,"gmtModify":1631891576532,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha","listText":"Haha","text":"Haha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165504693","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167955330,"gmtCreate":1624243971820,"gmtModify":1631891576527,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167955330","repostId":"1135860567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163442060,"gmtCreate":1623892210250,"gmtModify":1631892747129,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163442060","repostId":"1194240880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184226221,"gmtCreate":1623716547763,"gmtModify":1634029742980,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Damn&nbsp;","listText":"Damn&nbsp;","text":"Damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184226221","repostId":"1112731941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112731941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623716319,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112731941?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和“优秀亿万富翁”的神话</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112731941","media":"The New York Times","summary":"Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty\nWarren Buffett appears to be the safest kin","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002912ff5cccdf9eee5a5197b6b82e93\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>《纽约时报》插图；照片来自盖蒂</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur, neither Bezosist space cadet nor Sacklerian undertaker. He is, or seems to be, quiet, humble, indifferent to money, philanthropic and critical of the system that allowed him to rise. Years ago, a proposed tax increase was named after him.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特似乎是最安全的亿万富翁：善良的那种。巴菲特既不是扎克伯格式的救世主，也不是麝香式的挑衅者，既不是贝佐斯式的太空学员，也不是萨克勒式的殡仪员。他是，或者看起来是，安静、谦逊、对金钱漠不关心、乐善好施，对让他崛起的体制持批评态度。几年前，一项增税提案以他的名字命名。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy for people to think: If only members of the Sackler family were more like Mr. Buffett, imagine how many lives would have been saved. If only the billionaires who haven’t signed the Giving Pledge would give away as much as Mr. Buffett has pledged to, imagine the impact on the world. If only more billionaires would make use of the system without feeling the need to pervert it, so many of our troubles would vanish.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易想到：要是萨克勒家族的成员更像巴菲特先生就好了，想象一下会有多少人的生命得到挽救。如果没有签署捐赠誓言的亿万富翁们能像巴菲特先生承诺的那样捐赠那么多，想象一下对世界的影响。如果更多的亿万富翁能够利用这个系统，而不觉得有必要扭曲它，我们的许多麻烦就会消失。</blockquote></p><p> So I regret to inform you that Mr. Buffett is actually the most dangerous kind of billionaire we have. The worst billionaires are the Good Billionaires. The sort who make it seem like the problem is the distortion of the system when, in fact, the problem is the system.</p><p><blockquote>所以我很遗憾地告诉大家，巴菲特先生实际上是我们拥有的最危险的亿万富翁。最糟糕的亿万富翁是优秀的亿万富翁。让它看起来像是问题的人是系统的扭曲，而事实上，问题是系统。</blockquote></p><p> Actually malevolent and disastrously negligent plutocrats get most of the attention. And when we hear about these Bad Billionaire exploits, it is possible to conclude from them that the system needs better policing, updated regulations and maybe slightly higher taxes. The system needs to be made to work again.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，恶意和灾难性疏忽的财阀得到了最多的关注。当我们听到这些糟糕的亿万富翁剥削时，有可能从中得出结论，该系统需要更好的监管、更新的法规，也许还需要稍微提高税收。这个系统需要重新工作。</blockquote></p><p> But as America slouches toward plutocracy, our problem isn’t the virtue level of billionaires. It’s a set of social arrangements that make it possible for anyone to gain and guard and keep so much wealth, even as millions of others lack for food, work, housing, health, connectivity, education, dignity and the occasion to pursue their happiness.</p><p><blockquote>但随着美国无精打采地走向富豪统治，我们的问题不在于亿万富翁的美德水平。这是一套社会安排，使任何人都有可能获得、保护和保留如此多的财富，即使数百万人缺乏食物、工作、住房、健康、连通性、教育、尊严和追求幸福的机会。</blockquote></p><p> There is no way to be a billionaire in America without taking advantage of a system predicated on cruelty, a system whose tax code and labor laws and regulatory apparatus prioritize your needs above most people’s. Even noted Good Billionaire Mr. Buffett has profited from Coca-Cola’s sugary drinks, Amazon’s union busting, Chevron’s oil drilling, Clayton Homes’s predatory loans and, as the country learned recently, the failure to tax billionaires on their wealth.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，如果不利用一个建立在残酷基础上的体系，就不可能成为亿万富翁，这个体系的税法、劳动法和监管机构将你的需求置于大多数人的需求之上。即使是著名的亿万富翁巴菲特也从可口可乐的含糖饮料、亚马逊的工会破坏、雪佛龙的石油钻探、克莱顿住宅的掠夺性贷款以及美国最近了解到的未能对亿万富翁的财富征税中获利。</blockquote></p><p> The Good Billionaire myth took a hard blow in recent days when Mr. Buffett won a dubious distinction. A&nbsp;staggering exposé&nbsp;published by ProPublica revealed just how little the biggest plutocrats pay in taxes, despite mounting piles of wealth. And at the very top of that list of plutocrats — many of them with troubled reputations — was the cleanest, grandfatherliest plutocrat of them all: Mr. Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，当巴菲特赢得一项可疑的荣誉时，亿万富翁的神话受到了沉重打击。ProPublica发布的一份令人震惊的曝光显示，尽管财富不断增加，但最大的富豪缴纳的税款是多么之少。在这份富豪名单中——他们中的许多人名声不佳——最干净、最慷慨的是巴菲特先生。</blockquote></p><p> ProPublica’s story was unusual in that, for once, it was the Good Billionaire at the top of the naughty list. This was helpful, because it served to indict the system that makes him possible, even when it is working perfectly, wholly lawfully.</p><p><blockquote>ProPublica的故事不同寻常，因为这一次，它是在淘气名单上名列前茅的优秀亿万富翁。这是有帮助的，因为它有助于起诉使他成为可能的系统，即使它是完美的，完全合法的。</blockquote></p><p> From 2014 to 2018, Mr. Buffett’s wealth soared by $24.3 billion, according to ProPublica. (To underline, this is just the amount the fortune grew.) The amount of taxes Mr. Buffett paid over this period? $23.7 million. If middle-class Americans in their 40s enjoyed such a low effective tax rate, they would have paid a few dozen bucks per household over this same time period. Instead, as the ProPublica story notes, they paid around $62,000.</p><p><blockquote>根据ProPublica的数据，从2014年到2018年，巴菲特的财富飙升了243亿美元。（需要强调的是，这只是财富增长的金额。）巴菲特先生在此期间缴纳的税款？2370万美元。如果40多岁的美国中产阶级享受如此低的有效税率，他们在同一时期每户将支付几十美元。相反，正如ProPublica的故事所指出的，他们支付了大约62,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Imagine if Mr. Buffett had to pay the same fraction of the growth of his net worth that regular people do. Taxing that money could have helped pay for bridge repairs, mammograms, and free day care. More important — and this isn’t said enough — there is intrinsic value in shrinking gargantuan fortunes. The sway plutocrats have over public life is inconsistent with a one person, one vote democracy.</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，如果巴菲特先生必须支付与普通人相同比例的净资产增长。对这笔钱征税可以帮助支付桥梁维修、乳房x光检查和免费日托。更重要的是——这还不够——巨额财富的缩水具有内在价值。财阀对公共生活的影响力与一人一票的民主不一致。</blockquote></p><p> The important point here is that Mr. Buffett’s tax payments as detailed by ProPublica are fully legal. Though Mr. Buffett has called for changing the tax system, while we have the one we have, he will continue to benefit from the madness of taxing billionaires for their income, rather than their wealth, when their income is pretty much just a number they can construct.</p><p><blockquote>这里重要的一点是，ProPublica详细介绍的巴菲特先生的纳税情况是完全合法的。尽管巴菲特先生呼吁改变税收制度，但当我们拥有现有的税收制度时，他将继续受益于对亿万富翁的收入而不是财富征税的疯狂行为，而他们的收入几乎只是一个数字。他们可以构建。</blockquote></p><p> I asked Mr. Buffett last week, via his longtime secretary, Debbie Bosanek, if he could think of even one tax or accounting practice that he has come to regret. Sure, he may have followed the letter of the law. But was there any aspect of his patriotism or humanity that left him feeling guilty for hoarding so much untaxed when regular people pay so much in taxes? Though Ms. Bosanek responded to an initial inquiry, she declined to offer any such examples.</p><p><blockquote>上周，我通过巴菲特的长期秘书黛比·博萨内克（Debbie Bosanek）问他是否能想到一个让他后悔的税务或会计做法。当然，他可能遵守了法律条文。但是，当普通人缴纳如此多的税款时，他的爱国主义或人性是否有任何方面让他为囤积如此多未缴税而感到内疚？尽管Bosanek女士对初步调查做出了回应，但她拒绝提供任何此类例子。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a long statement last week, Mr. Buffett&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by pointing to his long advocacy for a fairer taxation system, and then he immediately told on himself by undermining the very idea of taxes in the same letter. “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing U.S. debt.”</p><p><blockquote>在上周的一份长篇声明中，巴菲特为自己辩护，指出他长期以来一直倡导更公平的税收制度，然后他立即在同一封信中破坏了税收的想法。“我相信，如果这笔钱用于慈善事业，比用于略微减少不断增加的美国债务对社会的用处更大。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words: I believe in higher income taxes on people like me, but I’m highly organized to avoid having income to report, and I don’t really believe in taxes because I think I should decide how these surplus resources are spent.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：我相信对像我这样的人征收更高的所得税，但我高度组织化以避免报告收入，我并不真正相信税收，因为我认为我应该决定如何使用这些剩余资源。</blockquote></p><p> And this points to another way in which the Good Billionaire is hard to deal with. The crooks and the scoundrels and the people manifestly looking for quick P.R. highs come to philanthropy for the marketing payoff. When Goldman Sachs announces a new initiative on fighting the racial wealth gap despite having done little to repair the damage it did to Black homeowners in contributing to the 2008 financial meltdown, some may be fooled, but, more and more, many are not.</p><p><blockquote>这指出了优秀亿万富翁难以相处的另一种方式。骗子、无赖和明显寻求快速公关高潮的人来到慈善事业是为了营销回报。当高盛宣布一项消除种族贫富差距的新举措时，尽管它几乎没有采取任何措施来修复2008年金融危机对黑人房主造成的损害，一些人可能会被愚弄，但越来越多的人没有被愚弄。</blockquote></p><p> Supposed Good Billionaires like Mr. Buffett and his friend Bill Gates are more complicated because they give real money. They may benefit from marketing but also seem to many people to be motivated by more than that, and they apply their smarts to the work.</p><p><blockquote>像巴菲特先生和他的朋友比尔·盖茨这样所谓的好亿万富翁更复杂，因为他们给的是真金白银。他们可能会从营销中受益，但在许多人看来，他们的动机不止于此，他们将自己的智慧运用到工作中。</blockquote></p><p> Yet because of this, it is often the Good Billionaires who end up with the most illegitimate influence over public life. No one is asking members of the Sackler family for public health advice. But Mr. Gates has become a major policy voice on vaccines despite holding no elected position. Mr. Buffett, for his part, has shied away from that kind of lane hopping and richsplaining, but in donating his fortune to Mr. Gates’s foundation he has pumped up that undemocratic influence.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正因为如此，往往是优秀的亿万富翁最终对公共生活产生了最不正当的影响。没有人向萨克勒家族成员寻求公共卫生建议。但是盖茨先生已经成为疫苗政策的主要代言人，尽管他没有担任民选职位。就巴菲特而言，他避免了这种跳跃和炫耀财富的行为，但通过将自己的财富捐给盖茨的基金会，他增强了这种不民主的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Buffett is almost the perfectly made billionaire for this moment in which, at last, many Americans are beginning to question not only corruptions of the system but the matter of whether billionaires should exist at all. He doesn’t do the things the worst of them do. He isn’t in it for what they’re in it for. He clearly must care about money, but he also kind of doesn’t care about money. Even in his generosity, he has avoided the imperial lording over that others cannot resist.</p><p><blockquote>在这个时刻，巴菲特先生几乎是完美的亿万富翁，许多美国人终于开始不仅质疑金融体系的腐败，还质疑亿万富翁是否应该存在。他不会做他们中最坏的人会做的事情。他不是为了他们的目的。他显然关心钱，但他也有点不在乎钱。即使在他的慷慨中，他也避免了别人无法抗拒的帝国统治。</blockquote></p><p> And this is what makes him so troubling, because through him we are tempted into believing that a system can be defended that allows a man to accumulate more than $100 billion while people are sleeping, in hock to him, in his mobile homes, shortening their lives with the beverages he’s invested in, scampering around the warehouses whose nonunion status has redounded to his money pile.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他如此令人不安的原因，因为通过他，我们倾向于相信一个系统是可以捍卫的，这个系统允许一个人在人们睡觉的时候积累超过1000亿美元，抵押给他，在他的活动房屋里，用他投资的饮料缩短他们的寿命，在仓库里蹦蹦跳跳，这些仓库的非工会身份帮助了他的钱堆。</blockquote></p><p> It can’t. And who keeps us from seeing that simple, stark truth more effectively, more perniciously, than the Good Billionaire?</p><p><blockquote>它不能。谁能比善良的亿万富翁更有效、更有害地阻止我们看到这个简单、赤裸裸的事实呢？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1608616134662","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和“优秀亿万富翁”的神话</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett and the Myth of the ‘Good Billionaire’<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特和“优秀亿万富翁”的神话</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The New York Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 08:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002912ff5cccdf9eee5a5197b6b82e93\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"1600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>《纽约时报》插图；照片来自盖蒂</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur, neither Bezosist space cadet nor Sacklerian undertaker. He is, or seems to be, quiet, humble, indifferent to money, philanthropic and critical of the system that allowed him to rise. Years ago, a proposed tax increase was named after him.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特似乎是最安全的亿万富翁：善良的那种。巴菲特既不是扎克伯格式的救世主，也不是麝香式的挑衅者，既不是贝佐斯式的太空学员，也不是萨克勒式的殡仪员。他是，或者看起来是，安静、谦逊、对金钱漠不关心、乐善好施，对让他崛起的体制持批评态度。几年前，一项增税提案以他的名字命名。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy for people to think: If only members of the Sackler family were more like Mr. Buffett, imagine how many lives would have been saved. If only the billionaires who haven’t signed the Giving Pledge would give away as much as Mr. Buffett has pledged to, imagine the impact on the world. If only more billionaires would make use of the system without feeling the need to pervert it, so many of our troubles would vanish.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易想到：要是萨克勒家族的成员更像巴菲特先生就好了，想象一下会有多少人的生命得到挽救。如果没有签署捐赠誓言的亿万富翁们能像巴菲特先生承诺的那样捐赠那么多，想象一下对世界的影响。如果更多的亿万富翁能够利用这个系统，而不觉得有必要扭曲它，我们的许多麻烦就会消失。</blockquote></p><p> So I regret to inform you that Mr. Buffett is actually the most dangerous kind of billionaire we have. The worst billionaires are the Good Billionaires. The sort who make it seem like the problem is the distortion of the system when, in fact, the problem is the system.</p><p><blockquote>所以我很遗憾地告诉大家，巴菲特先生实际上是我们拥有的最危险的亿万富翁。最糟糕的亿万富翁是优秀的亿万富翁。让它看起来像是问题的人是系统的扭曲，而事实上，问题是系统。</blockquote></p><p> Actually malevolent and disastrously negligent plutocrats get most of the attention. And when we hear about these Bad Billionaire exploits, it is possible to conclude from them that the system needs better policing, updated regulations and maybe slightly higher taxes. The system needs to be made to work again.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，恶意和灾难性疏忽的财阀得到了最多的关注。当我们听到这些糟糕的亿万富翁剥削时，有可能从中得出结论，该系统需要更好的监管、更新的法规，也许还需要稍微提高税收。这个系统需要重新工作。</blockquote></p><p> But as America slouches toward plutocracy, our problem isn’t the virtue level of billionaires. It’s a set of social arrangements that make it possible for anyone to gain and guard and keep so much wealth, even as millions of others lack for food, work, housing, health, connectivity, education, dignity and the occasion to pursue their happiness.</p><p><blockquote>但随着美国无精打采地走向富豪统治，我们的问题不在于亿万富翁的美德水平。这是一套社会安排，使任何人都有可能获得、保护和保留如此多的财富，即使数百万人缺乏食物、工作、住房、健康、连通性、教育、尊严和追求幸福的机会。</blockquote></p><p> There is no way to be a billionaire in America without taking advantage of a system predicated on cruelty, a system whose tax code and labor laws and regulatory apparatus prioritize your needs above most people’s. Even noted Good Billionaire Mr. Buffett has profited from Coca-Cola’s sugary drinks, Amazon’s union busting, Chevron’s oil drilling, Clayton Homes’s predatory loans and, as the country learned recently, the failure to tax billionaires on their wealth.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，如果不利用一个建立在残酷基础上的体系，就不可能成为亿万富翁，这个体系的税法、劳动法和监管机构将你的需求置于大多数人的需求之上。即使是著名的亿万富翁巴菲特也从可口可乐的含糖饮料、亚马逊的工会破坏、雪佛龙的石油钻探、克莱顿住宅的掠夺性贷款以及美国最近了解到的未能对亿万富翁的财富征税中获利。</blockquote></p><p> The Good Billionaire myth took a hard blow in recent days when Mr. Buffett won a dubious distinction. A&nbsp;staggering exposé&nbsp;published by ProPublica revealed just how little the biggest plutocrats pay in taxes, despite mounting piles of wealth. And at the very top of that list of plutocrats — many of them with troubled reputations — was the cleanest, grandfatherliest plutocrat of them all: Mr. Buffett.</p><p><blockquote>最近几天，当巴菲特赢得一项可疑的荣誉时，亿万富翁的神话受到了沉重打击。ProPublica发布的一份令人震惊的曝光显示，尽管财富不断增加，但最大的富豪缴纳的税款是多么之少。在这份富豪名单中——他们中的许多人名声不佳——最干净、最慷慨的是巴菲特先生。</blockquote></p><p> ProPublica’s story was unusual in that, for once, it was the Good Billionaire at the top of the naughty list. This was helpful, because it served to indict the system that makes him possible, even when it is working perfectly, wholly lawfully.</p><p><blockquote>ProPublica的故事不同寻常，因为这一次，它是在淘气名单上名列前茅的优秀亿万富翁。这是有帮助的，因为它有助于起诉使他成为可能的系统，即使它是完美的，完全合法的。</blockquote></p><p> From 2014 to 2018, Mr. Buffett’s wealth soared by $24.3 billion, according to ProPublica. (To underline, this is just the amount the fortune grew.) The amount of taxes Mr. Buffett paid over this period? $23.7 million. If middle-class Americans in their 40s enjoyed such a low effective tax rate, they would have paid a few dozen bucks per household over this same time period. Instead, as the ProPublica story notes, they paid around $62,000.</p><p><blockquote>根据ProPublica的数据，从2014年到2018年，巴菲特的财富飙升了243亿美元。（需要强调的是，这只是财富增长的金额。）巴菲特先生在此期间缴纳的税款？2370万美元。如果40多岁的美国中产阶级享受如此低的有效税率，他们在同一时期每户将支付几十美元。相反，正如ProPublica的故事所指出的，他们支付了大约62,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Imagine if Mr. Buffett had to pay the same fraction of the growth of his net worth that regular people do. Taxing that money could have helped pay for bridge repairs, mammograms, and free day care. More important — and this isn’t said enough — there is intrinsic value in shrinking gargantuan fortunes. The sway plutocrats have over public life is inconsistent with a one person, one vote democracy.</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，如果巴菲特先生必须支付与普通人相同比例的净资产增长。对这笔钱征税可以帮助支付桥梁维修、乳房x光检查和免费日托。更重要的是——这还不够——巨额财富的缩水具有内在价值。财阀对公共生活的影响力与一人一票的民主不一致。</blockquote></p><p> The important point here is that Mr. Buffett’s tax payments as detailed by ProPublica are fully legal. Though Mr. Buffett has called for changing the tax system, while we have the one we have, he will continue to benefit from the madness of taxing billionaires for their income, rather than their wealth, when their income is pretty much just a number they can construct.</p><p><blockquote>这里重要的一点是，ProPublica详细介绍的巴菲特先生的纳税情况是完全合法的。尽管巴菲特先生呼吁改变税收制度，但当我们拥有现有的税收制度时，他将继续受益于对亿万富翁的收入而不是财富征税的疯狂行为，而他们的收入几乎只是一个数字。他们可以构建。</blockquote></p><p> I asked Mr. Buffett last week, via his longtime secretary, Debbie Bosanek, if he could think of even one tax or accounting practice that he has come to regret. Sure, he may have followed the letter of the law. But was there any aspect of his patriotism or humanity that left him feeling guilty for hoarding so much untaxed when regular people pay so much in taxes? Though Ms. Bosanek responded to an initial inquiry, she declined to offer any such examples.</p><p><blockquote>上周，我通过巴菲特的长期秘书黛比·博萨内克（Debbie Bosanek）问他是否能想到一个让他后悔的税务或会计做法。当然，他可能遵守了法律条文。但是，当普通人缴纳如此多的税款时，他的爱国主义或人性是否有任何方面让他为囤积如此多未缴税而感到内疚？尽管Bosanek女士对初步调查做出了回应，但她拒绝提供任何此类例子。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a long statement last week, Mr. Buffett&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by pointing to his long advocacy for a fairer taxation system, and then he immediately told on himself by undermining the very idea of taxes in the same letter. “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing U.S. debt.”</p><p><blockquote>在上周的一份长篇声明中，巴菲特为自己辩护，指出他长期以来一直倡导更公平的税收制度，然后他立即在同一封信中破坏了税收的想法。“我相信，如果这笔钱用于慈善事业，比用于略微减少不断增加的美国债务对社会的用处更大。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words: I believe in higher income taxes on people like me, but I’m highly organized to avoid having income to report, and I don’t really believe in taxes because I think I should decide how these surplus resources are spent.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：我相信对像我这样的人征收更高的所得税，但我高度组织化以避免报告收入，我并不真正相信税收，因为我认为我应该决定如何使用这些剩余资源。</blockquote></p><p> And this points to another way in which the Good Billionaire is hard to deal with. The crooks and the scoundrels and the people manifestly looking for quick P.R. highs come to philanthropy for the marketing payoff. When Goldman Sachs announces a new initiative on fighting the racial wealth gap despite having done little to repair the damage it did to Black homeowners in contributing to the 2008 financial meltdown, some may be fooled, but, more and more, many are not.</p><p><blockquote>这指出了优秀亿万富翁难以相处的另一种方式。骗子、无赖和明显寻求快速公关高潮的人来到慈善事业是为了营销回报。当高盛宣布一项消除种族贫富差距的新举措时，尽管它几乎没有采取任何措施来修复2008年金融危机对黑人房主造成的损害，一些人可能会被愚弄，但越来越多的人没有被愚弄。</blockquote></p><p> Supposed Good Billionaires like Mr. Buffett and his friend Bill Gates are more complicated because they give real money. They may benefit from marketing but also seem to many people to be motivated by more than that, and they apply their smarts to the work.</p><p><blockquote>像巴菲特先生和他的朋友比尔·盖茨这样所谓的好亿万富翁更复杂，因为他们给的是真金白银。他们可能会从营销中受益，但在许多人看来，他们的动机不止于此，他们将自己的智慧运用到工作中。</blockquote></p><p> Yet because of this, it is often the Good Billionaires who end up with the most illegitimate influence over public life. No one is asking members of the Sackler family for public health advice. But Mr. Gates has become a major policy voice on vaccines despite holding no elected position. Mr. Buffett, for his part, has shied away from that kind of lane hopping and richsplaining, but in donating his fortune to Mr. Gates’s foundation he has pumped up that undemocratic influence.</p><p><blockquote>然而，正因为如此，往往是优秀的亿万富翁最终对公共生活产生了最不正当的影响。没有人向萨克勒家族成员寻求公共卫生建议。但是盖茨先生已经成为疫苗政策的主要代言人，尽管他没有担任民选职位。就巴菲特而言，他避免了这种跳跃和炫耀财富的行为，但通过将自己的财富捐给盖茨的基金会，他增强了这种不民主的影响力。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Buffett is almost the perfectly made billionaire for this moment in which, at last, many Americans are beginning to question not only corruptions of the system but the matter of whether billionaires should exist at all. He doesn’t do the things the worst of them do. He isn’t in it for what they’re in it for. He clearly must care about money, but he also kind of doesn’t care about money. Even in his generosity, he has avoided the imperial lording over that others cannot resist.</p><p><blockquote>在这个时刻，巴菲特先生几乎是完美的亿万富翁，许多美国人终于开始不仅质疑金融体系的腐败，还质疑亿万富翁是否应该存在。他不会做他们中最坏的人会做的事情。他不是为了他们的目的。他显然关心钱，但他也有点不在乎钱。即使在他的慷慨中，他也避免了别人无法抗拒的帝国统治。</blockquote></p><p> And this is what makes him so troubling, because through him we are tempted into believing that a system can be defended that allows a man to accumulate more than $100 billion while people are sleeping, in hock to him, in his mobile homes, shortening their lives with the beverages he’s invested in, scampering around the warehouses whose nonunion status has redounded to his money pile.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他如此令人不安的原因，因为通过他，我们倾向于相信一个系统是可以捍卫的，这个系统允许一个人在人们睡觉的时候积累超过1000亿美元，抵押给他，在他的活动房屋里，用他投资的饮料缩短他们的寿命，在仓库里蹦蹦跳跳，这些仓库的非工会身份帮助了他的钱堆。</blockquote></p><p> It can’t. And who keeps us from seeing that simple, stark truth more effectively, more perniciously, than the Good Billionaire?</p><p><blockquote>它不能。谁能比善良的亿万富翁更有效、更有害地阻止我们看到这个简单、赤裸裸的事实呢？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/opinion/warren-buffett-billionaire-taxes.html?searchResultPosition=1\">The New York Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/13/opinion/warren-buffett-billionaire-taxes.html?searchResultPosition=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112731941","content_text":"Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph via Getty\nWarren Buffett appears to be the safest kind of billionaire: the good kind. Mr. Buffett is neither Zuckerbergian messiah nor Musky provocateur, neither Bezosist space cadet nor Sacklerian undertaker. He is, or seems to be, quiet, humble, indifferent to money, philanthropic and critical of the system that allowed him to rise. Years ago, a proposed tax increase was named after him.\nIt’s easy for people to think: If only members of the Sackler family were more like Mr. Buffett, imagine how many lives would have been saved. If only the billionaires who haven’t signed the Giving Pledge would give away as much as Mr. Buffett has pledged to, imagine the impact on the world. If only more billionaires would make use of the system without feeling the need to pervert it, so many of our troubles would vanish.\nSo I regret to inform you that Mr. Buffett is actually the most dangerous kind of billionaire we have. The worst billionaires are the Good Billionaires. The sort who make it seem like the problem is the distortion of the system when, in fact, the problem is the system.\nActually malevolent and disastrously negligent plutocrats get most of the attention. And when we hear about these Bad Billionaire exploits, it is possible to conclude from them that the system needs better policing, updated regulations and maybe slightly higher taxes. The system needs to be made to work again.\nBut as America slouches toward plutocracy, our problem isn’t the virtue level of billionaires. It’s a set of social arrangements that make it possible for anyone to gain and guard and keep so much wealth, even as millions of others lack for food, work, housing, health, connectivity, education, dignity and the occasion to pursue their happiness.\nThere is no way to be a billionaire in America without taking advantage of a system predicated on cruelty, a system whose tax code and labor laws and regulatory apparatus prioritize your needs above most people’s. Even noted Good Billionaire Mr. Buffett has profited from Coca-Cola’s sugary drinks, Amazon’s union busting, Chevron’s oil drilling, Clayton Homes’s predatory loans and, as the country learned recently, the failure to tax billionaires on their wealth.\nThe Good Billionaire myth took a hard blow in recent days when Mr. Buffett won a dubious distinction. A staggering exposé published by ProPublica revealed just how little the biggest plutocrats pay in taxes, despite mounting piles of wealth. And at the very top of that list of plutocrats — many of them with troubled reputations — was the cleanest, grandfatherliest plutocrat of them all: Mr. Buffett.\nProPublica’s story was unusual in that, for once, it was the Good Billionaire at the top of the naughty list. This was helpful, because it served to indict the system that makes him possible, even when it is working perfectly, wholly lawfully.\nFrom 2014 to 2018, Mr. Buffett’s wealth soared by $24.3 billion, according to ProPublica. (To underline, this is just the amount the fortune grew.) The amount of taxes Mr. Buffett paid over this period? $23.7 million. If middle-class Americans in their 40s enjoyed such a low effective tax rate, they would have paid a few dozen bucks per household over this same time period. Instead, as the ProPublica story notes, they paid around $62,000.\nImagine if Mr. Buffett had to pay the same fraction of the growth of his net worth that regular people do. Taxing that money could have helped pay for bridge repairs, mammograms, and free day care. More important — and this isn’t said enough — there is intrinsic value in shrinking gargantuan fortunes. The sway plutocrats have over public life is inconsistent with a one person, one vote democracy.\nThe important point here is that Mr. Buffett’s tax payments as detailed by ProPublica are fully legal. Though Mr. Buffett has called for changing the tax system, while we have the one we have, he will continue to benefit from the madness of taxing billionaires for their income, rather than their wealth, when their income is pretty much just a number they can construct.\nI asked Mr. Buffett last week, via his longtime secretary, Debbie Bosanek, if he could think of even one tax or accounting practice that he has come to regret. Sure, he may have followed the letter of the law. But was there any aspect of his patriotism or humanity that left him feeling guilty for hoarding so much untaxed when regular people pay so much in taxes? Though Ms. Bosanek responded to an initial inquiry, she declined to offer any such examples.\nIn a long statement last week, Mr. Buffett defended himself by pointing to his long advocacy for a fairer taxation system, and then he immediately told on himself by undermining the very idea of taxes in the same letter. “I believe the money will be of more use to society if disbursed philanthropically than if it is used to slightly reduce an ever-increasing U.S. debt.”\nIn other words: I believe in higher income taxes on people like me, but I’m highly organized to avoid having income to report, and I don’t really believe in taxes because I think I should decide how these surplus resources are spent.\nAnd this points to another way in which the Good Billionaire is hard to deal with. The crooks and the scoundrels and the people manifestly looking for quick P.R. highs come to philanthropy for the marketing payoff. When Goldman Sachs announces a new initiative on fighting the racial wealth gap despite having done little to repair the damage it did to Black homeowners in contributing to the 2008 financial meltdown, some may be fooled, but, more and more, many are not.\nSupposed Good Billionaires like Mr. Buffett and his friend Bill Gates are more complicated because they give real money. They may benefit from marketing but also seem to many people to be motivated by more than that, and they apply their smarts to the work.\nYet because of this, it is often the Good Billionaires who end up with the most illegitimate influence over public life. No one is asking members of the Sackler family for public health advice. But Mr. Gates has become a major policy voice on vaccines despite holding no elected position. Mr. Buffett, for his part, has shied away from that kind of lane hopping and richsplaining, but in donating his fortune to Mr. Gates’s foundation he has pumped up that undemocratic influence.\nMr. Buffett is almost the perfectly made billionaire for this moment in which, at last, many Americans are beginning to question not only corruptions of the system but the matter of whether billionaires should exist at all. He doesn’t do the things the worst of them do. He isn’t in it for what they’re in it for. He clearly must care about money, but he also kind of doesn’t care about money. Even in his generosity, he has avoided the imperial lording over that others cannot resist.\nAnd this is what makes him so troubling, because through him we are tempted into believing that a system can be defended that allows a man to accumulate more than $100 billion while people are sleeping, in hock to him, in his mobile homes, shortening their lives with the beverages he’s invested in, scampering around the warehouses whose nonunion status has redounded to his money pile.\nIt can’t. And who keeps us from seeing that simple, stark truth more effectively, more perniciously, than the Good Billionaire?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165131703,"gmtCreate":1624104266502,"gmtModify":1631891576538,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165131703","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161808985,"gmtCreate":1623915048947,"gmtModify":1631892747129,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161808985","repostId":"1149277996","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169453306,"gmtCreate":1623848607305,"gmtModify":1631892747129,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169453306","repostId":"1160929405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160929405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623844146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160929405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 19:49","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Crypto Die-Hards Built a $90 Billion Wall Street on the Internet<blockquote>加密货币顽固分子在互联网上建立了价值900亿美元的华尔街</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160929405","media":".bloomberg","summary":"Money manager Vladimir Vishnevskiy can earn anegative interest ratefor holding a European government","content":"<p>Money manager Vladimir Vishnevskiy can earn anegative interest ratefor holding a European government bond. Or he can pocket the annual equivalent of a 20% yield for locking money up in one of the wilder corners of the crypto market, known as decentralized finance, or DeFi.</p><p><blockquote>基金经理弗拉基米尔·维什涅夫斯基(Vladimir Vishnevskiy)持有欧洲政府债券可以获得负利率。或者，他可以将资金锁定在加密货币市场的一个更狂野的角落，即去中心化金融（DeFi），从而获得相当于20%的年收益率。</blockquote></p><p> He decided to go for the 20%. “You can’t get those yields in the traditional space,” says the co-founder of Swiss-based St. Gotthard Fund Management, which runs a portfolio designed to squeeze income out of crypto assets. The strategy is so new that even Wall Street pros may have trouble wrapping their heads around it. Take what you might know about Bitcoin—that it’s a digital currency that exists only on an online ledger governed by computer code. Now make it even more mind-bending, and imagine the code isn’t just recording transactions. It’s running lending platforms, insurers and financial markets with little human intermediation. That’sDeFi.</p><p><blockquote>他决定争取20%。“你无法在传统领域获得这些收益率，”总部位于瑞士的圣哥达基金管理公司的联合创始人表示，该公司运营的投资组合旨在从加密资产中榨取收入。这一策略如此新颖，即使是华尔街的专业人士也可能难以理解。就拿你可能知道的比特币来说吧——它是一种数字货币，只存在于由计算机代码管理的在线账本上。现在让它变得更加令人费解，想象代码不仅仅是记录交易。它在几乎没有人工中介的情况下运营借贷平台、保险公司和金融市场。那是DeFi。</blockquote></p><p> Traders like Vishnevskiy can collect yields by committing in the form of crypto tokens the capital that’s needed to make these disembodied and largely unregulated financial institutions run. At the peak last month, investors put in as much as $86 billion into various DeFi programs, compared with just under $1 billion a year ago, DeFi Pulse data show.</p><p><blockquote>像维什涅夫斯基这样的交易者可以通过以加密代币的形式投入运营这些脱离实体且基本上不受监管的金融机构所需的资本来获得收益。DeFi Pulse数据显示，在上个月的高峰期，投资者向各种DeFi项目投入了高达860亿美元，而一年前这一数字略低于10亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a young, volatile, and hack-prone system. (One of the first decentralized projects, a fund called the DAO, was the victim of aspectacular $55 million theftby someone taking advantage of a flaw in its code to siphon off funds.) And for now, it’s mostly a crypto world built for thecrypto universe. The decentralized lenders are largely taking crypto deposits to make loans to people looking for leverage on crypto bets; the decentralized exchanges are used for trading crypto coins; the decentralized insurers cover crypto hacks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个年轻、不稳定、容易被黑客攻击的系统。（最早的去中心化项目之一，一个名为DAO的基金，是有人利用其代码中的缺陷窃取资金的惊人的5500万美元的受害者。）目前，它主要是一个为加密宇宙构建的加密世界。分散的贷款机构主要接受加密货币存款，向寻求加密货币押注杠杆的人提供贷款；分散式交易所用于交易加密硬币；分散的保险公司承保加密黑客。</blockquote></p><p> The big yields investors can earn are denominated not in dollars or euros but in often-obscure tokens. Critics of DeFi say some projects can resemble a Ponzi scheme: Early investors depend on others piling into tokens that still have limited real-world utility. If returns are high, it’s largely because of investors’ voracious appetite for more digital assets. And since DeFi projects don’t need to live in any physical location, they’re difficult to regulate, making the space vulnerable to scams and money laundering schemes. Still, DeFi’s advocates think the technology has the power to open up markets and build new kinds of financial products.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以获得的巨额收益不是以美元或欧元计价，而是以通常不为人知的代币计价。DeFi的批评者表示，一些项目可能类似于庞氏骗局：早期投资者依赖其他人涌入现实世界效用仍然有限的代币。如果回报很高，很大程度上是因为投资者对更多数字资产的贪婪胃口。由于DeFi项目不需要居住在任何物理位置，因此很难监管，这使得该领域容易受到诈骗和洗钱计划的影响。尽管如此，DeFi的倡导者认为该技术有能力打开市场并构建新型金融产品。</blockquote></p><p> To see how a DeFi program works, look atSushiSwap, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that started last year. It’s based on the code of another DeFi exchange calledUniswap. Like any exchange—from better-known crypto trading apps such asCoinbaseto stock markets likeNasdaq—SushiSwap depends on liquidity, or the ability to make sure buyers can find the tokens they want and sellers can get a price they think is fair. To do that in a decentralized way, SushiSwap creates liquidity pools that pair any two coins that traders might want to swap—for example, Ethereum, thesecond-most-popular cryptocurrencyand DeFi’s backbone, and the exchange’s own token, Sushi.</p><p><blockquote>要了解DeFi程序是如何工作的，请查看去年推出的去中心化加密货币交易所SushiSwap。它基于另一个名为Uniswap的DeFi交易所的代码。与任何交易所一样——从Coinbase等更知名的加密货币交易应用程序到纳斯达克等股票市场——SushiSwap依赖于流动性，或者确保买家能够找到他们想要的代币、卖家能够获得他们认为公平的价格的能力。为了以去中心化的方式做到这一点，SushiSwap创建了流动性池，将交易者可能想要交换的任何两种硬币配对，例如以太币（第二大最受欢迎的加密货币和DeFi的主干），以及交易所自己的代币Sushi。</blockquote></p><p> Investors like Vishnevskiy buy both tokens and then temporarily lock them into the pool, where they’re available to traders. An algorithm adjusts prices of both tokens to reflect relative changes in demand. The exchange also charges a fee for trading. When Vishnevskiy gets his tokens back, he also gets a portion of the fees generated from transactions made in the pool, as well as free additional Sushi tokens. (The added Sushi tokens can be earned on other trading pairs, not only those involving Sushi.) That, the exchange’s software surmises, amounts to an annualized 20% yield.</p><p><blockquote>像Vishnevskiy这样的投资者购买这两种代币，然后将它们暂时锁定在池中，供交易者使用。算法调整两种代币的价格，以反映需求的相对变化。交易所还收取交易费用。当Vishnevskiy拿回他的代币时，他还会获得一部分在池中进行的交易产生的费用，以及免费的额外寿司代币。（添加的寿司代币可以在其他交易对上赚取，而不仅仅是那些涉及寿司的交易对。）该交易所的软件推测，这相当于年化收益率20%。</blockquote></p><p> Other DeFi protocols may pay yields to people who make their crypto available for someone else to borrow. For example, traders might want to borrowstablecoins—tokens whose value is linked to that of a traditional currency such as the dollar—to buy more Bitcoin on platforms that don’t take traditional currencies.</p><p><blockquote>其他DeFi协议可能会向那些将其加密货币提供给其他人借用的人支付收益。例如，交易者可能想要借用稳定币（其价值与美元等传统货币挂钩的代币），以便在不接受传统货币的平台上购买更多比特币。</blockquote></p><p> If that sounds complicated, it is. Yields in DeFi are mostly projected from recent market trends and could drop quickly. Some investors who call themselves yield farmers are constantly moving their money trying to generate income, but crypto transaction costs called “gas” fees can eat up profits. Moreover, the cryptocurrencies these yields get paid in can fluctuate wildly in value. When Bitcoin slid as much as 10% on one recent day, popular DeFi coins such as Uniswap’s fell almost 20%.</p><p><blockquote>如果这听起来很复杂，那就是。DeFi的收益率主要是根据最近的市场趋势预测的，可能会迅速下降。一些看涨期权农民的投资者不断转移资金试图创收，但被称为“汽油”费的加密交易成本可能会吞噬利润。此外，这些收益支付的加密货币的价值可能会大幅波动。当比特币最近一天下跌10%时，Uniswap等流行的DeFi硬币下跌了近20%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Other risks that come with any cryptocurrency still apply:Regulatory scrutinywill probably grow, which might shut down or hamper some projects and blow up the value of associated tokens. Founders of DeFi projects who’ve hoarded the coins created to run them could suddenly cash out, causing prices to drop. SushiSwap’s pseudonymous creator, Chef Nomi, sold tokens worth roughly $13 million in September before reversing course amid community outrage.</p><p><blockquote>任何加密货币带来的其他风险仍然适用：监管审查可能会增加，这可能会关闭或阻碍一些项目，并大幅提升相关代币的价值。DeFi项目的创始人囤积了为运行它们而创建的硬币，可能会突然套现，导致价格下跌。SushiSwap的化名创建者Nomi厨师在9月份出售了价值约1300万美元的代币，然后在社区愤怒中改变了方向。</blockquote></p><p> “You can’t get those yields in the traditional space”</p><p><blockquote>“你无法在传统领域获得这些产量”</blockquote></p><p> The history of crypto is filled with cautionary tales about investments riding a wave of hype and then falling apart. Around 2018, so-called initial coin offerings raised billions of dollars for projects, most of which turned out to be duds. DeFi converts say the difference now is that applications such as exchanges and lenders are generating revenue, even if just from crypto speculation. Uniswap, which announces its user statistics in real time, had trading volume of $813 million in one recent 24-hour period, generating $1.8 million in fees for those staking their tokens in its liquidity pool.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币的历史充满了关于投资乘着炒作浪潮然后分崩离析的警示故事。2018年左右，所谓的首次代币发行为项目筹集了数十亿美元，但其中大部分都是徒劳的。DeFi转换者表示，现在的不同之处在于，交易所和贷方等应用程序正在产生收入，即使只是来自加密货币投机。Uniswap实时公布其用户统计数据，在最近24小时内的交易量为8.13亿美元，为那些在其流动性池中质押代币的人产生了180万美元的费用。</blockquote></p><p> What about the value of the tokens many DeFi projects give out? These coins aren’t exactly equity and don’t always confer any direct claim to profits. Often they give holders voting rights on the future of the project; investors may be hoping that as the protocols they’re associated with grow in popularity, so will the coins. But some DeFi platforms might not be as successful as they seem. Aleksander Kloda, who co-manages a DeFi fund at Nickel Digital Asset Management, says participation may be driven less by the value of a service than by the promise of free tokens. “In the short term, they can really make the picture a lot more difficult to read,” he says. “The logic is not quite correct if the volumes are only there because of the additional motivation the protocol gives you to participate.” As an investor, he tries to identify projects that have built up sustainable volume even without tantalizing yields.</p><p><blockquote>许多DeFi项目发放的代币价值如何？这些硬币并不完全是股权，也不总是赋予任何直接的利润要求。他们通常赋予持有人对项目未来的投票权；投资者可能希望，随着与他们相关的协议越来越受欢迎，硬币也会越来越受欢迎。但是一些DeFi平台可能并不像看起来那么成功。Nickel Digital Asset Management共同管理DeFi基金的Aleksander Kloda表示，参与的驱动力可能不是服务的价值，而是免费代币的承诺。“从短期来看，它们确实会让图片变得更加难以阅读，”他说。“如果数量的存在只是因为协议给了你参与的额外动力，那么逻辑就不太正确。”作为一名投资者，他试图识别那些即使没有诱人的收益率也能积累可持续交易量的项目。</blockquote></p><p> Advocates of DeFi say the idea is still in its infancy, and it could eventually broaden its uses and reach into more traditional areas of finance. Their dream is a financial system run on the internet that doesn’t involve a credit officer at a JPMorgan branch, or a Citadel Securities investing in high-frequency infrastructure tokeep stock trading liquid.</p><p><blockquote>DeFi的倡导者表示，这一想法仍处于起步阶段，最终可能会扩大其用途，进入更传统的金融领域。他们的梦想是建立一个在互联网上运行的金融系统，不涉及摩根大通分行的信贷官员，也不涉及Citadel Securities投资高频基础设施以保持股票交易流动性。</blockquote></p><p> But Elaine Ou, a blockchain engineer at Global Financial Access, argues there’s nothing wrong with DeFi being used only for crypto trading, either. “Look at Vegas and Macau—part of the reason they’re so valuable is that they allow you to do what other jurisdictions have banned,” says Ou, who alsowritesfor Bloomberg Opinion. “It is possible to build an entire industry up around speculation.”</p><p><blockquote>但Global Financial Access的区块链工程师Elaine Ou认为，DeFi仅用于加密货币交易也没有错。“看看拉斯维加斯和澳门——它们如此有价值的部分原因是它们允许你做其他司法管辖区禁止的事情，”欧说，他也是彭博社观点的撰稿人。“围绕投机建立整个行业是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Die-Hards Built a $90 Billion Wall Street on the Internet<blockquote>加密货币顽固分子在互联网上建立了价值900亿美元的华尔街</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Die-Hards Built a $90 Billion Wall Street on the Internet<blockquote>加密货币顽固分子在互联网上建立了价值900亿美元的华尔街</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">.bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 19:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Money manager Vladimir Vishnevskiy can earn anegative interest ratefor holding a European government bond. Or he can pocket the annual equivalent of a 20% yield for locking money up in one of the wilder corners of the crypto market, known as decentralized finance, or DeFi.</p><p><blockquote>基金经理弗拉基米尔·维什涅夫斯基(Vladimir Vishnevskiy)持有欧洲政府债券可以获得负利率。或者，他可以将资金锁定在加密货币市场的一个更狂野的角落，即去中心化金融（DeFi），从而获得相当于20%的年收益率。</blockquote></p><p> He decided to go for the 20%. “You can’t get those yields in the traditional space,” says the co-founder of Swiss-based St. Gotthard Fund Management, which runs a portfolio designed to squeeze income out of crypto assets. The strategy is so new that even Wall Street pros may have trouble wrapping their heads around it. Take what you might know about Bitcoin—that it’s a digital currency that exists only on an online ledger governed by computer code. Now make it even more mind-bending, and imagine the code isn’t just recording transactions. It’s running lending platforms, insurers and financial markets with little human intermediation. That’sDeFi.</p><p><blockquote>他决定争取20%。“你无法在传统领域获得这些收益率，”总部位于瑞士的圣哥达基金管理公司的联合创始人表示，该公司运营的投资组合旨在从加密资产中榨取收入。这一策略如此新颖，即使是华尔街的专业人士也可能难以理解。就拿你可能知道的比特币来说吧——它是一种数字货币，只存在于由计算机代码管理的在线账本上。现在让它变得更加令人费解，想象代码不仅仅是记录交易。它在几乎没有人工中介的情况下运营借贷平台、保险公司和金融市场。那是DeFi。</blockquote></p><p> Traders like Vishnevskiy can collect yields by committing in the form of crypto tokens the capital that’s needed to make these disembodied and largely unregulated financial institutions run. At the peak last month, investors put in as much as $86 billion into various DeFi programs, compared with just under $1 billion a year ago, DeFi Pulse data show.</p><p><blockquote>像维什涅夫斯基这样的交易者可以通过以加密代币的形式投入运营这些脱离实体且基本上不受监管的金融机构所需的资本来获得收益。DeFi Pulse数据显示，在上个月的高峰期，投资者向各种DeFi项目投入了高达860亿美元，而一年前这一数字略低于10亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a young, volatile, and hack-prone system. (One of the first decentralized projects, a fund called the DAO, was the victim of aspectacular $55 million theftby someone taking advantage of a flaw in its code to siphon off funds.) And for now, it’s mostly a crypto world built for thecrypto universe. The decentralized lenders are largely taking crypto deposits to make loans to people looking for leverage on crypto bets; the decentralized exchanges are used for trading crypto coins; the decentralized insurers cover crypto hacks.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个年轻、不稳定、容易被黑客攻击的系统。（最早的去中心化项目之一，一个名为DAO的基金，是有人利用其代码中的缺陷窃取资金的惊人的5500万美元的受害者。）目前，它主要是一个为加密宇宙构建的加密世界。分散的贷款机构主要接受加密货币存款，向寻求加密货币押注杠杆的人提供贷款；分散式交易所用于交易加密硬币；分散的保险公司承保加密黑客。</blockquote></p><p> The big yields investors can earn are denominated not in dollars or euros but in often-obscure tokens. Critics of DeFi say some projects can resemble a Ponzi scheme: Early investors depend on others piling into tokens that still have limited real-world utility. If returns are high, it’s largely because of investors’ voracious appetite for more digital assets. And since DeFi projects don’t need to live in any physical location, they’re difficult to regulate, making the space vulnerable to scams and money laundering schemes. Still, DeFi’s advocates think the technology has the power to open up markets and build new kinds of financial products.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以获得的巨额收益不是以美元或欧元计价，而是以通常不为人知的代币计价。DeFi的批评者表示，一些项目可能类似于庞氏骗局：早期投资者依赖其他人涌入现实世界效用仍然有限的代币。如果回报很高，很大程度上是因为投资者对更多数字资产的贪婪胃口。由于DeFi项目不需要居住在任何物理位置，因此很难监管，这使得该领域容易受到诈骗和洗钱计划的影响。尽管如此，DeFi的倡导者认为该技术有能力打开市场并构建新型金融产品。</blockquote></p><p> To see how a DeFi program works, look atSushiSwap, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that started last year. It’s based on the code of another DeFi exchange calledUniswap. Like any exchange—from better-known crypto trading apps such asCoinbaseto stock markets likeNasdaq—SushiSwap depends on liquidity, or the ability to make sure buyers can find the tokens they want and sellers can get a price they think is fair. To do that in a decentralized way, SushiSwap creates liquidity pools that pair any two coins that traders might want to swap—for example, Ethereum, thesecond-most-popular cryptocurrencyand DeFi’s backbone, and the exchange’s own token, Sushi.</p><p><blockquote>要了解DeFi程序是如何工作的，请查看去年推出的去中心化加密货币交易所SushiSwap。它基于另一个名为Uniswap的DeFi交易所的代码。与任何交易所一样——从Coinbase等更知名的加密货币交易应用程序到纳斯达克等股票市场——SushiSwap依赖于流动性，或者确保买家能够找到他们想要的代币、卖家能够获得他们认为公平的价格的能力。为了以去中心化的方式做到这一点，SushiSwap创建了流动性池，将交易者可能想要交换的任何两种硬币配对，例如以太币（第二大最受欢迎的加密货币和DeFi的主干），以及交易所自己的代币Sushi。</blockquote></p><p> Investors like Vishnevskiy buy both tokens and then temporarily lock them into the pool, where they’re available to traders. An algorithm adjusts prices of both tokens to reflect relative changes in demand. The exchange also charges a fee for trading. When Vishnevskiy gets his tokens back, he also gets a portion of the fees generated from transactions made in the pool, as well as free additional Sushi tokens. (The added Sushi tokens can be earned on other trading pairs, not only those involving Sushi.) That, the exchange’s software surmises, amounts to an annualized 20% yield.</p><p><blockquote>像Vishnevskiy这样的投资者购买这两种代币，然后将它们暂时锁定在池中，供交易者使用。算法调整两种代币的价格，以反映需求的相对变化。交易所还收取交易费用。当Vishnevskiy拿回他的代币时，他还会获得一部分在池中进行的交易产生的费用，以及免费的额外寿司代币。（添加的寿司代币可以在其他交易对上赚取，而不仅仅是那些涉及寿司的交易对。）该交易所的软件推测，这相当于年化收益率20%。</blockquote></p><p> Other DeFi protocols may pay yields to people who make their crypto available for someone else to borrow. For example, traders might want to borrowstablecoins—tokens whose value is linked to that of a traditional currency such as the dollar—to buy more Bitcoin on platforms that don’t take traditional currencies.</p><p><blockquote>其他DeFi协议可能会向那些将其加密货币提供给其他人借用的人支付收益。例如，交易者可能想要借用稳定币（其价值与美元等传统货币挂钩的代币），以便在不接受传统货币的平台上购买更多比特币。</blockquote></p><p> If that sounds complicated, it is. Yields in DeFi are mostly projected from recent market trends and could drop quickly. Some investors who call themselves yield farmers are constantly moving their money trying to generate income, but crypto transaction costs called “gas” fees can eat up profits. Moreover, the cryptocurrencies these yields get paid in can fluctuate wildly in value. When Bitcoin slid as much as 10% on one recent day, popular DeFi coins such as Uniswap’s fell almost 20%.</p><p><blockquote>如果这听起来很复杂，那就是。DeFi的收益率主要是根据最近的市场趋势预测的，可能会迅速下降。一些看涨期权农民的投资者不断转移资金试图创收，但被称为“汽油”费的加密交易成本可能会吞噬利润。此外，这些收益支付的加密货币的价值可能会大幅波动。当比特币最近一天下跌10%时，Uniswap等流行的DeFi硬币下跌了近20%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Other risks that come with any cryptocurrency still apply:Regulatory scrutinywill probably grow, which might shut down or hamper some projects and blow up the value of associated tokens. Founders of DeFi projects who’ve hoarded the coins created to run them could suddenly cash out, causing prices to drop. SushiSwap’s pseudonymous creator, Chef Nomi, sold tokens worth roughly $13 million in September before reversing course amid community outrage.</p><p><blockquote>任何加密货币带来的其他风险仍然适用：监管审查可能会增加，这可能会关闭或阻碍一些项目，并大幅提升相关代币的价值。DeFi项目的创始人囤积了为运行它们而创建的硬币，可能会突然套现，导致价格下跌。SushiSwap的化名创建者Nomi厨师在9月份出售了价值约1300万美元的代币，然后在社区愤怒中改变了方向。</blockquote></p><p> “You can’t get those yields in the traditional space”</p><p><blockquote>“你无法在传统领域获得这些产量”</blockquote></p><p> The history of crypto is filled with cautionary tales about investments riding a wave of hype and then falling apart. Around 2018, so-called initial coin offerings raised billions of dollars for projects, most of which turned out to be duds. DeFi converts say the difference now is that applications such as exchanges and lenders are generating revenue, even if just from crypto speculation. Uniswap, which announces its user statistics in real time, had trading volume of $813 million in one recent 24-hour period, generating $1.8 million in fees for those staking their tokens in its liquidity pool.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币的历史充满了关于投资乘着炒作浪潮然后分崩离析的警示故事。2018年左右，所谓的首次代币发行为项目筹集了数十亿美元，但其中大部分都是徒劳的。DeFi转换者表示，现在的不同之处在于，交易所和贷方等应用程序正在产生收入，即使只是来自加密货币投机。Uniswap实时公布其用户统计数据，在最近24小时内的交易量为8.13亿美元，为那些在其流动性池中质押代币的人产生了180万美元的费用。</blockquote></p><p> What about the value of the tokens many DeFi projects give out? These coins aren’t exactly equity and don’t always confer any direct claim to profits. Often they give holders voting rights on the future of the project; investors may be hoping that as the protocols they’re associated with grow in popularity, so will the coins. But some DeFi platforms might not be as successful as they seem. Aleksander Kloda, who co-manages a DeFi fund at Nickel Digital Asset Management, says participation may be driven less by the value of a service than by the promise of free tokens. “In the short term, they can really make the picture a lot more difficult to read,” he says. “The logic is not quite correct if the volumes are only there because of the additional motivation the protocol gives you to participate.” As an investor, he tries to identify projects that have built up sustainable volume even without tantalizing yields.</p><p><blockquote>许多DeFi项目发放的代币价值如何？这些硬币并不完全是股权，也不总是赋予任何直接的利润要求。他们通常赋予持有人对项目未来的投票权；投资者可能希望，随着与他们相关的协议越来越受欢迎，硬币也会越来越受欢迎。但是一些DeFi平台可能并不像看起来那么成功。Nickel Digital Asset Management共同管理DeFi基金的Aleksander Kloda表示，参与的驱动力可能不是服务的价值，而是免费代币的承诺。“从短期来看，它们确实会让图片变得更加难以阅读，”他说。“如果数量的存在只是因为协议给了你参与的额外动力，那么逻辑就不太正确。”作为一名投资者，他试图识别那些即使没有诱人的收益率也能积累可持续交易量的项目。</blockquote></p><p> Advocates of DeFi say the idea is still in its infancy, and it could eventually broaden its uses and reach into more traditional areas of finance. Their dream is a financial system run on the internet that doesn’t involve a credit officer at a JPMorgan branch, or a Citadel Securities investing in high-frequency infrastructure tokeep stock trading liquid.</p><p><blockquote>DeFi的倡导者表示，这一想法仍处于起步阶段，最终可能会扩大其用途，进入更传统的金融领域。他们的梦想是建立一个在互联网上运行的金融系统，不涉及摩根大通分行的信贷官员，也不涉及Citadel Securities投资高频基础设施以保持股票交易流动性。</blockquote></p><p> But Elaine Ou, a blockchain engineer at Global Financial Access, argues there’s nothing wrong with DeFi being used only for crypto trading, either. “Look at Vegas and Macau—part of the reason they’re so valuable is that they allow you to do what other jurisdictions have banned,” says Ou, who alsowritesfor Bloomberg Opinion. “It is possible to build an entire industry up around speculation.”</p><p><blockquote>但Global Financial Access的区块链工程师Elaine Ou认为，DeFi仅用于加密货币交易也没有错。“看看拉斯维加斯和澳门——它们如此有价值的部分原因是它们允许你做其他司法管辖区禁止的事情，”欧说，他也是彭博社观点的撰稿人。“围绕投机建立整个行业是可能的。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/defi-platforms-with-names-like-sushiswap-aim-to-be-nasdaq-for-crypto\">.bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/defi-platforms-with-names-like-sushiswap-aim-to-be-nasdaq-for-crypto","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160929405","content_text":"Money manager Vladimir Vishnevskiy can earn anegative interest ratefor holding a European government bond. Or he can pocket the annual equivalent of a 20% yield for locking money up in one of the wilder corners of the crypto market, known as decentralized finance, or DeFi.\nHe decided to go for the 20%. “You can’t get those yields in the traditional space,” says the co-founder of Swiss-based St. Gotthard Fund Management, which runs a portfolio designed to squeeze income out of crypto assets. The strategy is so new that even Wall Street pros may have trouble wrapping their heads around it. Take what you might know about Bitcoin—that it’s a digital currency that exists only on an online ledger governed by computer code. Now make it even more mind-bending, and imagine the code isn’t just recording transactions. It’s running lending platforms, insurers and financial markets with little human intermediation. That’sDeFi.\nTraders like Vishnevskiy can collect yields by committing in the form of crypto tokens the capital that’s needed to make these disembodied and largely unregulated financial institutions run. At the peak last month, investors put in as much as $86 billion into various DeFi programs, compared with just under $1 billion a year ago, DeFi Pulse data show.\nIt’s a young, volatile, and hack-prone system. (One of the first decentralized projects, a fund called the DAO, was the victim of aspectacular $55 million theftby someone taking advantage of a flaw in its code to siphon off funds.) And for now, it’s mostly a crypto world built for thecrypto universe. The decentralized lenders are largely taking crypto deposits to make loans to people looking for leverage on crypto bets; the decentralized exchanges are used for trading crypto coins; the decentralized insurers cover crypto hacks.\nThe big yields investors can earn are denominated not in dollars or euros but in often-obscure tokens. Critics of DeFi say some projects can resemble a Ponzi scheme: Early investors depend on others piling into tokens that still have limited real-world utility. If returns are high, it’s largely because of investors’ voracious appetite for more digital assets. And since DeFi projects don’t need to live in any physical location, they’re difficult to regulate, making the space vulnerable to scams and money laundering schemes. Still, DeFi’s advocates think the technology has the power to open up markets and build new kinds of financial products.\nTo see how a DeFi program works, look atSushiSwap, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that started last year. It’s based on the code of another DeFi exchange calledUniswap. Like any exchange—from better-known crypto trading apps such asCoinbaseto stock markets likeNasdaq—SushiSwap depends on liquidity, or the ability to make sure buyers can find the tokens they want and sellers can get a price they think is fair. To do that in a decentralized way, SushiSwap creates liquidity pools that pair any two coins that traders might want to swap—for example, Ethereum, thesecond-most-popular cryptocurrencyand DeFi’s backbone, and the exchange’s own token, Sushi.\nInvestors like Vishnevskiy buy both tokens and then temporarily lock them into the pool, where they’re available to traders. An algorithm adjusts prices of both tokens to reflect relative changes in demand. The exchange also charges a fee for trading. When Vishnevskiy gets his tokens back, he also gets a portion of the fees generated from transactions made in the pool, as well as free additional Sushi tokens. (The added Sushi tokens can be earned on other trading pairs, not only those involving Sushi.) That, the exchange’s software surmises, amounts to an annualized 20% yield.\nOther DeFi protocols may pay yields to people who make their crypto available for someone else to borrow. For example, traders might want to borrowstablecoins—tokens whose value is linked to that of a traditional currency such as the dollar—to buy more Bitcoin on platforms that don’t take traditional currencies.\nIf that sounds complicated, it is. Yields in DeFi are mostly projected from recent market trends and could drop quickly. Some investors who call themselves yield farmers are constantly moving their money trying to generate income, but crypto transaction costs called “gas” fees can eat up profits. Moreover, the cryptocurrencies these yields get paid in can fluctuate wildly in value. When Bitcoin slid as much as 10% on one recent day, popular DeFi coins such as Uniswap’s fell almost 20%.\nOther risks that come with any cryptocurrency still apply:Regulatory scrutinywill probably grow, which might shut down or hamper some projects and blow up the value of associated tokens. Founders of DeFi projects who’ve hoarded the coins created to run them could suddenly cash out, causing prices to drop. SushiSwap’s pseudonymous creator, Chef Nomi, sold tokens worth roughly $13 million in September before reversing course amid community outrage.\n“You can’t get those yields in the traditional space”\nThe history of crypto is filled with cautionary tales about investments riding a wave of hype and then falling apart. Around 2018, so-called initial coin offerings raised billions of dollars for projects, most of which turned out to be duds. DeFi converts say the difference now is that applications such as exchanges and lenders are generating revenue, even if just from crypto speculation. Uniswap, which announces its user statistics in real time, had trading volume of $813 million in one recent 24-hour period, generating $1.8 million in fees for those staking their tokens in its liquidity pool.\nWhat about the value of the tokens many DeFi projects give out? These coins aren’t exactly equity and don’t always confer any direct claim to profits. Often they give holders voting rights on the future of the project; investors may be hoping that as the protocols they’re associated with grow in popularity, so will the coins. But some DeFi platforms might not be as successful as they seem. Aleksander Kloda, who co-manages a DeFi fund at Nickel Digital Asset Management, says participation may be driven less by the value of a service than by the promise of free tokens. “In the short term, they can really make the picture a lot more difficult to read,” he says. “The logic is not quite correct if the volumes are only there because of the additional motivation the protocol gives you to participate.” As an investor, he tries to identify projects that have built up sustainable volume even without tantalizing yields.\nAdvocates of DeFi say the idea is still in its infancy, and it could eventually broaden its uses and reach into more traditional areas of finance. Their dream is a financial system run on the internet that doesn’t involve a credit officer at a JPMorgan branch, or a Citadel Securities investing in high-frequency infrastructure tokeep stock trading liquid.\nBut Elaine Ou, a blockchain engineer at Global Financial Access, argues there’s nothing wrong with DeFi being used only for crypto trading, either. “Look at Vegas and Macau—part of the reason they’re so valuable is that they allow you to do what other jurisdictions have banned,” says Ou, who alsowritesfor Bloomberg Opinion. “It is possible to build an entire industry up around speculation.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185287650,"gmtCreate":1623653787870,"gmtModify":1634030597853,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185287650","repostId":"1130831385","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127182941,"gmtCreate":1624839840483,"gmtModify":1631888610485,"author":{"id":"3577019858358853","authorId":"3577019858358853","name":"Eeron","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b2e5b38c6a34eaa78a4a5630ed176c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577019858358853","authorIdStr":"3577019858358853"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmmmmm","listText":"Hmmmmmmm","text":"Hmmmmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127182941","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}