toranoana的个人主页 - 老虎社区

toranoana

toranoana

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

6关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-02-27

Really now

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-26

Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!

Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>

2021-02-25

Cooolll

Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>

2021-02-24

Woah hedge funds??

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-27

Lmao

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-24

Lmao wot is this guy serious

How Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote>

2021-02-24

BUY DIP TIME

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-27

Coool soon we can normal life

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-24

Time to buy the dip!!

Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>

2021-02-24

Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!

The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3577108112520561","uuid":"3577108112520561","gmtCreate":1614078890763,"gmtModify":1614080372603,"name":"toranoana","pinyin":"toranoana","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":6,"tweetSize":16,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":366317705,"gmtCreate":1614394389207,"gmtModify":1703477246410,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Coool soon we can normal life","listText":"Coool soon we can normal life","text":"Coool soon we can normal life","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317705","repostId":"2114371822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366317685,"gmtCreate":1614394338347,"gmtModify":1703477246058,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really now","listText":"Really now","text":"Really now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317685","repostId":"1181374212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366317386,"gmtCreate":1614394304345,"gmtModify":1703477245164,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao","listText":"Lmao","text":"Lmao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317386","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368551564,"gmtCreate":1614340834358,"gmtModify":1703476609542,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","listText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","text":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368551564","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361358452,"gmtCreate":1614209059976,"gmtModify":1634550736827,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Widening wealth gap","listText":"Widening wealth gap","text":"Widening wealth gap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361358452","repostId":"1109259264","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361358052,"gmtCreate":1614208983976,"gmtModify":1634550737428,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really now","listText":"Really now","text":"Really now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361358052","repostId":"1138795890","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361351840,"gmtCreate":1614208941780,"gmtModify":1634550737788,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cooolll","listText":"Cooolll","text":"Cooolll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361351840","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363509068,"gmtCreate":1614147869155,"gmtModify":1634550979991,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy the dip!!","listText":"Time to buy the dip!!","text":"Time to buy the dip!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363509068","repostId":"1185609211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614139419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185609211","media":"TheStreet","summary":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell","content":"<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain&nbsp;quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power&nbsp; (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys&nbsp; (SSYS) and ExOne&nbsp; (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape&nbsp; (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) &nbsp;are up 150% and 123%,&nbsp;respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%,&nbsp;respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers&nbsp;have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the&nbsp;huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point&nbsp;on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed&nbsp;remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the&nbsp;more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain&nbsp;quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power&nbsp; (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys&nbsp; (SSYS) and ExOne&nbsp; (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape&nbsp; (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) &nbsp;are up 150% and 123%,&nbsp;respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%,&nbsp;respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers&nbsp;have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the&nbsp;huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point&nbsp;on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed&nbsp;remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the&nbsp;more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","FCEL":"燃料电池能源","DDD":"3D系统","APHA":"Aphria Inc.","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","SSYS":"Stratasys","PLUG":"普拉格能源","XONE":"BondBloxx Bloomberg One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185609211","content_text":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.\nWhile many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.\nFor example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power  (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.\nLikewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys  (SSYS) and ExOne  (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape  (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR)  are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.\nIn a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.\nAlso, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.\nWith all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.\nIn spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.\nEventually, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.\nAs a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLDP":0.9,"LAZR":0.9,"XONE":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"SSYS":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"DDD":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"APHA":0.9,"QS":0.9,"FCEL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500583,"gmtCreate":1614147842942,"gmtModify":1634550980230,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","listText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","text":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500583","repostId":"1111682954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111682954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614143481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111682954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111682954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold","content":"<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500661,"gmtCreate":1614147811653,"gmtModify":1634550980351,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","listText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","text":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500661","repostId":"1191237890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191237890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614144729,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191237890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"How Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191237890","media":"exegy","summary":"Notes:Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13","content":"<p><b>Notes:</b><b>Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附注：</b><b>香港财政司司长陈茂波建议提高股票交易印花税至0.13%</b></blockquote></p><p>The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only&nbsp;transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.</p><p><blockquote>香港政府对所有股份转让的价值征收印花税，这对香港交易所（港交所）的交易成本有重大影响。该税是香港证券交易中支付的最大单一费用，不仅影响交易成本，也影响整个香港市场。因此，在进入这个市场之前，规划其影响是重要的一步。</blockquote></p><p><b>Basics of the Stamp Duty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税基础知识</b></blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.</p><p><blockquote>印花税并不是香港独有的——许多政府都征收金融交易税，但都有不同的规则和豁免。香港的关税适用于在香港交易所上市的所有股票以及香港公司的所有股份转让。印花税目前设定为买卖双方各0.2%-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.</p><p><blockquote>与其他一些市场的关税不同，香港的印花税不区分流动性制造者和接受者。暗池，在香港被称为“另类流动性池”，也要缴纳印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.</p><p><blockquote>交易所参与者须于交收日上午十一时前代客户缴付印花税，交收日为交易日后的第二个交易日。关税以电子方式支付，交易所参与者必须根据其平均每日营业额将存款存入指定账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Comparing the Duty with other Transaction Fees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将关税与其他交易费用进行比较</b></blockquote></p><p>The stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.</p><p><blockquote>印花税约占港交所所有官方交易费用的90%。其他费用包括每边0.0027%的证监会征费、每边0.005%的交易所费及每边0.002%的结算费（由$2至$100不等）。对于每笔交易，无论规模大小，卖方必须支付5.00港元的转让契据印花税，买方必须支付2.50港元的转让费。就做市而言，交易所费用及证监会征费均获豁免。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a89595225a251b89abcc13fc88960f8\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自20世纪90年代初以来，印花税税率已削减了三分之二，但由于香港对印花税收入的依赖，香港政府一直抵制评级废除印花税。政府目前不征收销售税或资本利得税，2017-2018财年股票转让印花税占总收入的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在香港交易的公司必须继续计划如何尽量减少他们的关税责任。市场参与者实现这一目标的一种方法是利用其豁免。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stamp Duty Exemptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税豁免</b></blockquote></p><p>Firms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过交易免税产品来最大限度地增加交易机会，而不会招致印花税。该税仅对股票转让征收，因此现金结算的衍生品以及ETF和其他基于指数的篮子工具无需纳税。在香港，交易员严重依赖这些产品，这使得香港交易所成为全球最大的证券化衍生品交易中心，也是ETF期权交易量领先的亚太市场。</blockquote></p><p>Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.</p><p><blockquote>衍生品合约免征香港印花税，因为它们不涉及股票的实物转让。在香港交易所交易的最受欢迎的衍生品包括认股权证（由公司发行）、可赎回牛熊合约（也由交易所以外的人发行的合约）和内联认股权证（旨在从指数稳定中获利的认股权证）。结构性衍生产品约占港交所2019年日均成交额的21%。可赎回牛/熊合约尤其受欢迎，占该金额的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.</p><p><blockquote>另一个主要类别的印花税免税产品是集合投资——那些基于一篮子基础资产价值的投资，例如交易所交易基金（ETF）。香港于2015年取消了所有ETF的印花税，以更好地与其他全球市场竞争。杠杆和反向产品也包含在此豁免中。他们寻求提供指数的倍数（杠杆）或相反（反向）结果。例如，当恒生指数上涨2%时，2倍杠杆产品的目标是上涨4%，而2倍反向产品的目标是下跌4%。如果没有这些产品的印花税，交易成本分析可能会揭示更有利可图的交易策略。</blockquote></p><p><b>Effects of Stamp Duty on the Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税对市场的影响</b></blockquote></p><p>In addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.</p><p><blockquote>除了交易策略，印花税对香港市场整体来说还有更广泛的挑战。对包括做市在内的所有股票交易征税可能会抑制整体流动性。这反过来会损害价格发现并扩大买卖价差，增加股票及其衍生品交易的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board&nbsp;increased just 21%&nbsp;from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the&nbsp;Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect&nbsp;programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.</p><p><blockquote>港交所增加产品以提振流动性，但成效不大。尽管近年来采取了一些举措，但从2013年12月到2019年12月，交易所主板的日均成交额仅增长了21%。改善流动性是香港2014年决定与中国内地启动沪深股通计划的关键驱动力之一。虽然港股通北向交易不征收香港印花税，但港股通卖家仍需向中国内地政府缴纳等额0.1%印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for&nbsp;43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.</p><p><blockquote>印花税也倾向于将交易活动集中在有限数量的股票上，在香港，统计数据证实了这一点。2019年，20只最活跃股票的成交额占所有股票成交额的43%。这使得大多数证券更难获得流动性，并增加了利差。</blockquote></p><p>While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然印花税对流动性的影响显著影响香港的交易，但地区政治和全球经济加剧了市场的波动。向该地区扩张需要持续了解流动性和波动性的变化，以便最全面地了解该市场的挑战和机遇。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614144636634","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">exegy</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Notes:</b><b>Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附注：</b><b>香港财政司司长陈茂波建议提高股票交易印花税至0.13%</b></blockquote></p><p>The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only&nbsp;transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.</p><p><blockquote>香港政府对所有股份转让的价值征收印花税，这对香港交易所（港交所）的交易成本有重大影响。该税是香港证券交易中支付的最大单一费用，不仅影响交易成本，也影响整个香港市场。因此，在进入这个市场之前，规划其影响是重要的一步。</blockquote></p><p><b>Basics of the Stamp Duty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税基础知识</b></blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.</p><p><blockquote>印花税并不是香港独有的——许多政府都征收金融交易税，但都有不同的规则和豁免。香港的关税适用于在香港交易所上市的所有股票以及香港公司的所有股份转让。印花税目前设定为买卖双方各0.2%-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.</p><p><blockquote>与其他一些市场的关税不同，香港的印花税不区分流动性制造者和接受者。暗池，在香港被称为“另类流动性池”，也要缴纳印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.</p><p><blockquote>交易所参与者须于交收日上午十一时前代客户缴付印花税，交收日为交易日后的第二个交易日。关税以电子方式支付，交易所参与者必须根据其平均每日营业额将存款存入指定账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Comparing the Duty with other Transaction Fees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将关税与其他交易费用进行比较</b></blockquote></p><p>The stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.</p><p><blockquote>印花税约占港交所所有官方交易费用的90%。其他费用包括每边0.0027%的证监会征费、每边0.005%的交易所费及每边0.002%的结算费（由$2至$100不等）。对于每笔交易，无论规模大小，卖方必须支付5.00港元的转让契据印花税，买方必须支付2.50港元的转让费。就做市而言，交易所费用及证监会征费均获豁免。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a89595225a251b89abcc13fc88960f8\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自20世纪90年代初以来，印花税税率已削减了三分之二，但由于香港对印花税收入的依赖，香港政府一直抵制评级废除印花税。政府目前不征收销售税或资本利得税，2017-2018财年股票转让印花税占总收入的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在香港交易的公司必须继续计划如何尽量减少他们的关税责任。市场参与者实现这一目标的一种方法是利用其豁免。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stamp Duty Exemptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税豁免</b></blockquote></p><p>Firms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过交易免税产品来最大限度地增加交易机会，而不会招致印花税。该税仅对股票转让征收，因此现金结算的衍生品以及ETF和其他基于指数的篮子工具无需纳税。在香港，交易员严重依赖这些产品，这使得香港交易所成为全球最大的证券化衍生品交易中心，也是ETF期权交易量领先的亚太市场。</blockquote></p><p>Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.</p><p><blockquote>衍生品合约免征香港印花税，因为它们不涉及股票的实物转让。在香港交易所交易的最受欢迎的衍生品包括认股权证（由公司发行）、可赎回牛熊合约（也由交易所以外的人发行的合约）和内联认股权证（旨在从指数稳定中获利的认股权证）。结构性衍生产品约占港交所2019年日均成交额的21%。可赎回牛/熊合约尤其受欢迎，占该金额的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.</p><p><blockquote>另一个主要类别的印花税免税产品是集合投资——那些基于一篮子基础资产价值的投资，例如交易所交易基金（ETF）。香港于2015年取消了所有ETF的印花税，以更好地与其他全球市场竞争。杠杆和反向产品也包含在此豁免中。他们寻求提供指数的倍数（杠杆）或相反（反向）结果。例如，当恒生指数上涨2%时，2倍杠杆产品的目标是上涨4%，而2倍反向产品的目标是下跌4%。如果没有这些产品的印花税，交易成本分析可能会揭示更有利可图的交易策略。</blockquote></p><p><b>Effects of Stamp Duty on the Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税对市场的影响</b></blockquote></p><p>In addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.</p><p><blockquote>除了交易策略，印花税对香港市场整体来说还有更广泛的挑战。对包括做市在内的所有股票交易征税可能会抑制整体流动性。这反过来会损害价格发现并扩大买卖价差，增加股票及其衍生品交易的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board&nbsp;increased just 21%&nbsp;from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the&nbsp;Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect&nbsp;programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.</p><p><blockquote>港交所增加产品以提振流动性，但成效不大。尽管近年来采取了一些举措，但从2013年12月到2019年12月，交易所主板的日均成交额仅增长了21%。改善流动性是香港2014年决定与中国内地启动沪深股通计划的关键驱动力之一。虽然港股通北向交易不征收香港印花税，但港股通卖家仍需向中国内地政府缴纳等额0.1%印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for&nbsp;43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.</p><p><blockquote>印花税也倾向于将交易活动集中在有限数量的股票上，在香港，统计数据证实了这一点。2019年，20只最活跃股票的成交额占所有股票成交额的43%。这使得大多数证券更难获得流动性，并增加了利差。</blockquote></p><p>While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然印花税对流动性的影响显著影响香港的交易，但地区政治和全球经济加剧了市场的波动。向该地区扩张需要持续了解流动性和波动性的变化，以便最全面地了解该市场的挑战和机遇。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.exegy.com/2020/04/hk-stamp-duty-stock-transfer/\">exegy</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00388":"香港交易所","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"https://www.exegy.com/2020/04/hk-stamp-duty-stock-transfer/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191237890","content_text":"Notes:Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.Basics of the Stamp DutyStamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.Comparing the Duty with other Transaction FeesThe stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.Stamp Duty ExemptionsFirms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.Effects of Stamp Duty on the MarketsIn addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board increased just 21% from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for 43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00388":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500327,"gmtCreate":1614147776269,"gmtModify":1634550980470,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woah hedge funds??","listText":"Woah hedge funds??","text":"Woah hedge funds??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500327","repostId":"1186371880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363277744,"gmtCreate":1614147743488,"gmtModify":1634550980590,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY DIP TIME","listText":"BUY DIP TIME","text":"BUY DIP TIME","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363277744","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363090382,"gmtCreate":1614080297346,"gmtModify":1634551265747,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>interesting upside","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>interesting upside","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$interesting upside","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363090382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363007254,"gmtCreate":1614080248178,"gmtModify":1634551265991,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"DIAMOND HANDSS","listText":"DIAMOND HANDSS","text":"DIAMOND HANDSS","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363007254","repostId":"1144952945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144952945","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614072310,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144952945?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 17:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Airbnb Reports Earnings on Thursday. One Analyst Sees a Blowout.<blockquote>爱彼迎周四公布财报。一位分析师认为会出现井喷。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144952945","media":"Barrons","summary":"Airbnb will report its first quarter as a public company on Thursday after the market closes—and at ","content":"<p>Airbnb&nbsp;will report its first quarter as a public company on Thursday after the market closes—and at least one analyst sees a blowout coming.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎将于周四收盘后报告其作为上市公司的第一季度业绩，至少一位分析师预计业绩将出现井喷。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb stock (ticker: ABNB) went public&nbsp;Dec. 10 at $68 a share, closed the first day of trading at $144, and has since rallied past the $200 level, giving the short-term real-estate rental platform a market cap of more than $120 billion. That’s more than the combined value of the two leading online-travel-agency stocks,Booking.com(BKNG) andExpedia(EXPE).</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎股票（股票代码：ABNB）于12月上市。10日股价为每股68美元，首日收盘价为144美元，此后已升至200美元以上，使该短期房地产租赁平台的市值超过1200亿美元。这超过了两只领先的在线旅行社股票Booking.com(BKNG)和Expedia(EXPE)的总价值。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street analyst consensus forecast for Airbnb’s fourth quarter calls for revenue of $740.2 million, with a loss of $9.17 a share. Street consensus for the March quarter is $591.5 million, with a loss of $1.21 a share.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师一致预测Airbnb第四季度评级营收为7.402亿美元，每股亏损9.17美元。华尔街对3月份季度的共识为5.915亿美元，每股亏损1.21美元。</blockquote></p><p> Loop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson on Monday lifted his rating on Airbnb shares to Buy from Hold, with a new target of $240, up from $150. Sanderson thinks December quarter results will beat consensus estimates by “a significant margin.” He’s projecting revenue for the fourth quarter of $937 million, way above consensus.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Rob Sanderson周一将爱彼迎股票评级从持有上调至买入，新目标从150美元上调至240美元。桑德森认为12月份季度业绩将“大幅”超出市场普遍预期。他预计第四季度营收为9.37亿美元，远高于市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> Sanderson notes that bookings growth for&nbsp;Expedia’s Vrbo unit&nbsp;improved sequentially in the fourth quarter, “a trend that continues” into the March quarter. He says that third-party analytics find “record growth” year over year in January. The analyst writes that Airbnb unit volume has shown “directional correlation” with&nbsp;Uber rideshare bookings&nbsp;over 11 quarters—and he adds that “world-wide rides bookings improved further for Uber in Q4 while consensus for Airbnb reflects material deceleration for the quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>桑德森指出，Expedia VRBO部门的预订增长在第四季度环比改善，“这一趋势将持续”到第三季度。他表示，第三方分析发现1月份同比增长“创纪录”。这位分析师写道，过去11个季度，爱彼迎的销量与Uber拼车预订量表现出“方向相关性”，他补充说，“Uber的全球拼车预订量在第四季度进一步改善，而爱彼迎的共识反映出该季度的大幅减速。”</blockquote></p><p> He does caution that the stock could face selling pressure into a pair of coming lock-up expirations, the first on March 1 and a larger tranches after the first quarter earnings report, likely in early May. But he still likes the stock.</p><p><blockquote>他确实警告说，该股可能会在即将到来的两次禁售到期中面临抛售压力，第一次是在3月1日，第一季度收益报告后（可能是在5月初）会有更大的一部分。但他仍然喜欢这只股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Our initial opinion was that Airbnb is a premium company with a tremendous opportunity, but that valuation did not leave significant upside,” Sanderson writes. “Since this time, premiums for growth leaders have expanded further and Airbnb shares are already up $54 year to date. While the continued multiple expansion raises the risk profile, we do not expect market conditions will change in the near term. We consider this the largest risk to an aggressive call ahead of the first-ever report for the company.”</p><p><blockquote>桑德森写道：“我们最初的观点是，爱彼迎是一家拥有巨大机会的优质公司，但这一估值并没有留下显着的上涨空间。”“自那时以来，增长领导者的溢价进一步扩大，Airbnb股价今年迄今已上涨54美元。虽然持续的倍数扩张增加了风险状况，但我们预计市场状况不会在短期内发生变化。我们认为这是该公司首份报告发布之前激进看涨期权面临的最大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, Airbnb shares are fell&nbsp;2.9%&nbsp;to $195.34.</p><p><blockquote>周一，爱彼迎股价下跌2.9%至195.34美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Airbnb Reports Earnings on Thursday. One Analyst Sees a Blowout.<blockquote>爱彼迎周四公布财报。一位分析师认为会出现井喷。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAirbnb Reports Earnings on Thursday. One Analyst Sees a Blowout.<blockquote>爱彼迎周四公布财报。一位分析师认为会出现井喷。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 17:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Airbnb&nbsp;will report its first quarter as a public company on Thursday after the market closes—and at least one analyst sees a blowout coming.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎将于周四收盘后报告其作为上市公司的第一季度业绩，至少一位分析师预计业绩将出现井喷。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb stock (ticker: ABNB) went public&nbsp;Dec. 10 at $68 a share, closed the first day of trading at $144, and has since rallied past the $200 level, giving the short-term real-estate rental platform a market cap of more than $120 billion. That’s more than the combined value of the two leading online-travel-agency stocks,Booking.com(BKNG) andExpedia(EXPE).</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎股票（股票代码：ABNB）于12月上市。10日股价为每股68美元，首日收盘价为144美元，此后已升至200美元以上，使该短期房地产租赁平台的市值超过1200亿美元。这超过了两只领先的在线旅行社股票Booking.com(BKNG)和Expedia(EXPE)的总价值。</blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street analyst consensus forecast for Airbnb’s fourth quarter calls for revenue of $740.2 million, with a loss of $9.17 a share. Street consensus for the March quarter is $591.5 million, with a loss of $1.21 a share.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师一致预测Airbnb第四季度评级营收为7.402亿美元，每股亏损9.17美元。华尔街对3月份季度的共识为5.915亿美元，每股亏损1.21美元。</blockquote></p><p> Loop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson on Monday lifted his rating on Airbnb shares to Buy from Hold, with a new target of $240, up from $150. Sanderson thinks December quarter results will beat consensus estimates by “a significant margin.” He’s projecting revenue for the fourth quarter of $937 million, way above consensus.</p><p><blockquote>Loop Capital分析师Rob Sanderson周一将爱彼迎股票评级从持有上调至买入，新目标从150美元上调至240美元。桑德森认为12月份季度业绩将“大幅”超出市场普遍预期。他预计第四季度营收为9.37亿美元，远高于市场预期。</blockquote></p><p> Sanderson notes that bookings growth for&nbsp;Expedia’s Vrbo unit&nbsp;improved sequentially in the fourth quarter, “a trend that continues” into the March quarter. He says that third-party analytics find “record growth” year over year in January. The analyst writes that Airbnb unit volume has shown “directional correlation” with&nbsp;Uber rideshare bookings&nbsp;over 11 quarters—and he adds that “world-wide rides bookings improved further for Uber in Q4 while consensus for Airbnb reflects material deceleration for the quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>桑德森指出，Expedia VRBO部门的预订增长在第四季度环比改善，“这一趋势将持续”到第三季度。他表示，第三方分析发现1月份同比增长“创纪录”。这位分析师写道，过去11个季度，爱彼迎的销量与Uber拼车预订量表现出“方向相关性”，他补充说，“Uber的全球拼车预订量在第四季度进一步改善，而爱彼迎的共识反映出该季度的大幅减速。”</blockquote></p><p> He does caution that the stock could face selling pressure into a pair of coming lock-up expirations, the first on March 1 and a larger tranches after the first quarter earnings report, likely in early May. But he still likes the stock.</p><p><blockquote>他确实警告说，该股可能会在即将到来的两次禁售到期中面临抛售压力，第一次是在3月1日，第一季度收益报告后（可能是在5月初）会有更大的一部分。但他仍然喜欢这只股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Our initial opinion was that Airbnb is a premium company with a tremendous opportunity, but that valuation did not leave significant upside,” Sanderson writes. “Since this time, premiums for growth leaders have expanded further and Airbnb shares are already up $54 year to date. While the continued multiple expansion raises the risk profile, we do not expect market conditions will change in the near term. We consider this the largest risk to an aggressive call ahead of the first-ever report for the company.”</p><p><blockquote>桑德森写道：“我们最初的观点是，爱彼迎是一家拥有巨大机会的优质公司，但这一估值并没有留下显着的上涨空间。”“自那时以来，增长领导者的溢价进一步扩大，Airbnb股价今年迄今已上涨54美元。虽然持续的倍数扩张增加了风险状况，但我们预计市场状况不会在短期内发生变化。我们认为这是该公司首份报告发布之前激进看涨期权面临的最大风险。”</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, Airbnb shares are fell&nbsp;2.9%&nbsp;to $195.34.</p><p><blockquote>周一，爱彼迎股价下跌2.9%至195.34美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-reports-earnings-on-thursday-one-analyst-sees-a-blowout-51614010424?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbnb-reports-earnings-on-thursday-one-analyst-sees-a-blowout-51614010424?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144952945","content_text":"Airbnb will report its first quarter as a public company on Thursday after the market closes—and at least one analyst sees a blowout coming.\nAirbnb stock (ticker: ABNB) went public Dec. 10 at $68 a share, closed the first day of trading at $144, and has since rallied past the $200 level, giving the short-term real-estate rental platform a market cap of more than $120 billion. That’s more than the combined value of the two leading online-travel-agency stocks,Booking.com(BKNG) andExpedia(EXPE).\nThe Wall Street analyst consensus forecast for Airbnb’s fourth quarter calls for revenue of $740.2 million, with a loss of $9.17 a share. Street consensus for the March quarter is $591.5 million, with a loss of $1.21 a share.\nLoop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson on Monday lifted his rating on Airbnb shares to Buy from Hold, with a new target of $240, up from $150. Sanderson thinks December quarter results will beat consensus estimates by “a significant margin.” He’s projecting revenue for the fourth quarter of $937 million, way above consensus.\nSanderson notes that bookings growth for Expedia’s Vrbo unit improved sequentially in the fourth quarter, “a trend that continues” into the March quarter. He says that third-party analytics find “record growth” year over year in January. The analyst writes that Airbnb unit volume has shown “directional correlation” with Uber rideshare bookings over 11 quarters—and he adds that “world-wide rides bookings improved further for Uber in Q4 while consensus for Airbnb reflects material deceleration for the quarter.”\nHe does caution that the stock could face selling pressure into a pair of coming lock-up expirations, the first on March 1 and a larger tranches after the first quarter earnings report, likely in early May. But he still likes the stock.\n“Our initial opinion was that Airbnb is a premium company with a tremendous opportunity, but that valuation did not leave significant upside,” Sanderson writes. “Since this time, premiums for growth leaders have expanded further and Airbnb shares are already up $54 year to date. While the continued multiple expansion raises the risk profile, we do not expect market conditions will change in the near term. We consider this the largest risk to an aggressive call ahead of the first-ever report for the company.”\nOn Monday, Airbnb shares are fell 2.9% to $195.34.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363004415,"gmtCreate":1614080171637,"gmtModify":1634551266697,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting viewpoint...","listText":"Interesting viewpoint...","text":"Interesting viewpoint...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363004415","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363002573,"gmtCreate":1614080032692,"gmtModify":1634551267726,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577108112520561","authorIdStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363002573","repostId":"1178144401","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":366317685,"gmtCreate":1614394338347,"gmtModify":1703477246058,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really now","listText":"Really now","text":"Really now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317685","repostId":"1181374212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368551564,"gmtCreate":1614340834358,"gmtModify":1703476609542,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","listText":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","text":"Moooooonnn go to marrrss!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368551564","repostId":"1146313632","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146313632","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614334339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146313632?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-26 18:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146313632","media":"Options AI: Learn","summary":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from ","content":"<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614334070724","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGamestop And High Volatility Options<blockquote>游戏驿站和高波动性期权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Options AI: Learn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-26 18:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Gamestop Corp.</b>&nbsp;shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站公司。</b>过去几天股价飙升，较上周一度上涨近200%（但仍较近期轧空高点大幅下跌）。我们将看看像游戏驿站这样波动性很大的股票的期权中出现的独特情况，以及在交易期权之前可能需要考虑的一些事情。</blockquote></p><p><hr><b>Gamestop: The Expected Move</b></p><p><blockquote><hr/><b>游戏驿站：预期的举动</b></blockquote></p><p>First, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):</p><p><blockquote>首先，看看期权如何为即将到来的走势定价。这是游戏驿站的期权AI预期走势图，预计本周五收盘价将出现近30%的走势。下个月的价格将上涨大约80%。包含盈利事件的月份（未经确认）：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e35872724d8db887fa09d822d622ac8c\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright Calls</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站：看涨期权价差与彻底的评级</blockquote></p><p>Using March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.</p><p><blockquote>以3月19日为到期日，我们首先查看看涨利差，并直接与直接评级进行比较。像游戏驿站这样不稳定的股票，评级的股价可能会很昂贵。正因为如此，许多交易者诉诸远超本钱的评级买入。对上行评级的需求增加了这些评级的波动性，使其相对于平价评级的价格昂贵——这种现象被称为倾斜。然而，对于那些看涨的人来说，这可能会创造一个利用价差而不是直接购买看涨期权的机会。让我们看看怎么做。</blockquote></p><p>Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，我们将重点关注一种替代方案——使用借方利差来降低定向交易的总体成本（同时通过降低盈亏平衡水平来提高交易本身的盈利概率）。它通过出售那些相对昂贵的价外评级来帮助购买更接近价外的看涨期权来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>With Gamestop near $105, the&nbsp;<b>March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread</b>&nbsp;is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.</p><p><blockquote>随着游戏驿站接近105美元，<b>3月19日110/190借方看涨期权利差</b>大约为15美元，目标是3月19日的看涨预期走势。借方看涨期权利差需要该股在3月19日高于125美元才能盈利。</blockquote></p><p>As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，GME 3月19日200评级的交易价格为29美元。这几乎是200美元看涨期权的成本的两倍，需要股票在3月19日之前高于229美元……而看涨期权的价差需要股票高于125美元。以下是期权人工智能图表上这两种交易的并排比较。一、200家看涨期权：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b044a22bfbe5a8326f9aa3ebf56ed4fd\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:</p><p><blockquote>接下来，145/200借方看涨期权利差：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cdf8545f07da48f770ef81cb4e5ac53\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，看涨期权价差不仅更便宜，而且上涨盈利的点也更接近股票当前的交易价格。（如盈亏平衡的灰色价格所示。）</blockquote></p><p>A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).</p><p><blockquote>关于盈利概率的一个注记。这些交易显示的利润概率基于分配给交易盈亏平衡的delta。105美元股票的200看涨期权交易价格接近50 deltas，这一事实表明游戏驿站波动对其期权产生了多么扭曲的影响（难以借贷、扭曲零售对价外评级的需求）。</blockquote></p><p>Directional Butterflies vs Outright Puts</p><p><blockquote>定向蝶形与直接看跌期权</blockquote></p><p>High volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.</p><p><blockquote>高波动性也会影响看跌期权交易。像游戏驿站这样的高波动性股票的一个反直觉的方面是，其隐含波动率可能会随着股票走高而上升，随着股票走低而下降。这与我们通常对波动性的看法相反。因此，随着股票走低，直接买入看跌期权会带来波动性崩溃（从而导致溢价崩溃）的风险。因此，即使股票正朝着预期的方向移动，作为期权持有者，您可能无法实现预期的收益。</blockquote></p><p>One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).</p><p><blockquote>应对股票高隐含波动率的一种方法（尤其是在持有看跌观点时）是成为期权溢价的净卖家。向看涨期权交易者出售，而不是加入看跌期权交易者。传统上，这可能采取出售信贷看涨期权利差的形式。但在GME的情况下，这意味着以比更接近资金的看涨期权更高的波动性购买（昂贵的）上行看涨期权（如上所述）。</blockquote></p><p>So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.</p><p><blockquote>因此，交易者可以考虑的一种期权策略是使用蝴蝶。期权交易通常与中性交易观点相关，但在这里适用于实际创建目标（看跌）方向观点。</blockquote></p><p>Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:</p><p><blockquote>举个例子，这里有一只蝴蝶，其中心罢工集中在80美元的股票上，到期日为3月19日：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7cb8f9b0570e854f662f3031e50ca91\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p>This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.</p><p><blockquote>这只130/80/30蝴蝶的盈亏平衡点为115和45，这意味着如果股票在3月19日到期时处于这两个价格之间，交易是有利可图的……如果股票处于或接近80美元，则会出现最大收益。它具有空头溢价的额外动力，如果股票保持在其范围内，如果隐含波动率被压缩，则按市值计算将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/\">Options AI: Learn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://learn.optionsai.com/gamestop-and-high-volatility-options/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146313632","content_text":"Gamestop Corp. shares have soared the past few days with the stock up nearly 200% at one point from last week (but still down significantly from recent short squeeze highs). We'll look at the unique situations that arise in the options of a highly volatile stock like Gamestop and a few things that might be considered before trading options.Gamestop: The Expected MoveFirst, a look at how options are pricing upcoming moves. Here's theOptions AIexpected move chart for Gamestop, with a nearly 30% move being priced into this Friday's close. And a roughly 80% move being priced for the next month. A month that includes an earnings event (unconfirmed):Gamestop: Call Spreads vs Outright CallsUsing March 19th as an expiry we first looks at bullish spreads, and compare directly to outright calls. With a stock as volatile as Gamestop, calls can be expensive. Because of that, many traders resort to buying far out of the money calls. That demand for upside calls increases volatility in those calls, making them expensive relative to at-the-money calls – a phenomenon known as skew. However, for those that are bullish, this may create an opportunity to utilize spreads rather than buying an outright call. Let's see how.Here we'll focus on one alternative – using debit spreads to lower the overall cost of a directional trade (while potentially improving the probability of profit of the trade itself by lowering the breakeven level). It does so by selling those relatively expensive out-the-money Calls to help finance the purchase of a nearer to at-the-money Call.With Gamestop near $105, the March 19th 110/190 Debit Call Spread is roughly $15 and targets the bullish expected move for March 19th. The debit call spread would need the stock to be above $125 on March 19th to be profitable.As a comparison, the GME March 19th 200 calls are trading $29. That's nearly twice the cost for a 200 call that needs the stock above $229 by March 19th… versus a call spread, that needs the stock above $125. Here's a side by side comparison of those two trades on the Options AI chart. First, the 200 call:And next, the 145/200 debit call spread:As you can see, not only is the call spread less expensive, the point at which is becomes profitable to the upside is much closer to where the stock is currently trading. (As indicated by the grey price of the breakeven.)A note on probability of profit. The probability of profit displayed on these trades is based on the delta being assigned to the breakeven of the trade. The fact that a 200 call in a $105 stock is trading near 50 deltas shows just how distorting an effect Gamestop volatility is having on its options (hard to borrow, skew, retail demand for out-of-the-money calls).Directional Butterflies vs Outright PutsHigh volatility also affects bearish options trades. One of the counter-intuitive aspects of a high volatility stock like Gamestop is that its implied volatility can go up as the stock goes higher and down as the stock goes lower. This is the opposite of how we generally think about volatility. Therefore, buying outright puts carries a risk of collapsing volatility (and therefore collapsing premiums) as the stock goes lower. So, even though the stock is moving in the intended direction, as an option holder you may not be realizing the gains expected.One way to counter high implied volatility in a stock, especially when having a bearish view, is to be a net seller of option premium. To sell to bullish option traders rather than join bearish option traders. Traditionally that might take the form of selling a Credit Call Spread. But in GME's case that means buying the (expensive) upper strike Call at a higher volatility than the Call that is closer to the money (as described above).So, one option strategy that can be considered by traders is using a Butterfly. An option trade that is more typically associated with a neutral trading view, but here adapted to actually create a targeted (bearish) directional view.Here, as an example, is a Butterfly with its center strikes focused at $80 in the stock, with a March 19th expiry:This 130/80/30 butterfly has breakevens of 115 and 45, meaning the trade is profitable if the stock is between those two prices at March 19th expiry… with a max gain occurring if the stock is at or near $80. It has the additional dynamic of being short premium, and if the stock stays within its range would see mark to market gains if implied volatility compressed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":361351840,"gmtCreate":1614208941780,"gmtModify":1634550737788,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cooolll","listText":"Cooolll","text":"Cooolll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361351840","repostId":"1129467108","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129467108","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614164417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129467108?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129467108","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullie","content":"<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy J.P. Morgan Says Now Is the Time to Bet on the S&P 500<blockquote>为什么摩根大通表示现在是押注标普500的时候</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Don’t worry. Be greedy.</p><p><blockquote>别担心。要贪心。</blockquote></p><p>Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者的担忧正在加剧，股市也受到债券收益率上升的欺负，但J.P.摩根策略师告诉他们的客户，现在是拥抱股票的时候了。</blockquote></p><p>TheS&amp;P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>标准普尔500指数可能在3875点附近徘徊，但该行坚持2021年年底目标价4400点，区间为4200点至4600点。它的数字不仅仅是股市预期收益的一些衍生物。相反，它们反映了美国在Covid-19大流行后的经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p>Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通衍生品策略师肖恩·奎格(Shawn Quigg)最近告诉客户，市场实现“这种收益迟早会到来，特别是考虑到未来的众多催化剂、它们对波动性的影响以及对投资者定位的影响。”</blockquote></p><p>As President Joe Biden’s administration&nbsp;champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move&nbsp;that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.</p><p><blockquote>随着乔·拜登总统的政府支持1.9万亿美元的刺激计划，以及Covid-19感染和住院人数的下降，奎格预计股市将飙升。他的观点与近期交易有些出入。随着10年期国债收益率升至1.38%左右，股市下跌，此举加剧了通胀担忧和对股市暴跌的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>奎格喜欢利用恐惧和悬而未决的刺激计划，拜登已经开始为该计划辩护，因为担心该计划规模过大。在各种采访中，总统挑战批评者告诉他，在这个国家如此多的人遭受苦难的时候，应该削减什么。拜登政府现在警告说，最大的风险不是大规模的刺激计划，而是规模太小，因此无法有意义地刺激经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls&nbsp;with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.</p><p><blockquote>为了让股市飙升，Quigg建议客户考虑出售SPDR标普500 ETF（股票代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）5月353美元的看跌期权之一，并购买5月15日450美元的看涨期权期权。当ETF价格为392.39美元时，杠杆风险逆转策略——即卖出一份看跌期权并买入更多执行价格更高但到期日相同的评级——可以免费完成。换句话说，卖出看跌期权收到的钱足以买入15个看涨的评级。</blockquote></p><p>The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.</p><p><blockquote>该交易表明，该ETF（最近交易价格约为387美元）将在5月21日5月期权到期时达到450美元。看涨期权售价460美元，价值10美元。</blockquote></p><p>Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.</p><p><blockquote>比方说，如果ETF下跌，因为当前的担忧将市场推至353美元的执行价格以下，投资者将有义务以较低的价格买入，或者回补或调整看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p>Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.</p><p><blockquote>奎格的交易理念有很多值得钦佩的地方。</blockquote></p><p>For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.</p><p><blockquote>其一，上周晚些时候推荐该交易时成本为零。是的，自2月18日的报告发布以来，价格已经发生了变化，但投资者可以重新调整执行价格以创建类似的定价。市场会发生变化，这就是为什么列出了这么多不同的执行价格。</blockquote></p><p>Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&amp;P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.</p><p><blockquote>此外，如果摩根大通对经济复苏的基本观点被证明是正确的，那么拥有一批不需要花费任何成本的上行评级可能会非常有利可图。如果市场屈服于当前价格走软的担忧，以较低的价格持有标普500股票也并不可怕。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-j-p-morgan-says-now-is-the-time-to-bet-on-the-s-p-500-51614090217?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129467108","content_text":"Don’t worry. Be greedy.Even though investor fears are rising, and the stock market is getting bullied by rising bond yields,J.P. Morganstrategists have told their clients that now is the time to embrace stocks.TheS&P 500may be waffling around 3875, but the bank is standing by its 2021 year-end price target of 4400 on a range of 4200 to 4600. Its numbers aren’t merely some derivative of the stock market’s expected earnings. Instead, they reflect America’s economic reawakening after the Covid-19 pandemic.Shawn Quigg, a J.P. Morgan derivatives strategist, recently told clients that there is little to stand in the way of the market’s achievement of “such gains sooner than later, particularly considering the numerous catalysts ahead, their impact on volatility, and the implications that will have on investor positioning.”As President Joe Biden’s administration champions a $1.9 trillion stimulus program, and Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations decline, Quigg anticipates stocks surging. His view is somewhat at odds with recent trading. Stocks have declined as the 10-year Treasury note yield has increased to about 1.38%, a move that is fanning inflation fearsand worries about stock slumps.Quigg likes taking advantage of the fear and the pending stimulus program, which Biden has begun to defend against concerns that it is too large. In various interviews, the president has challenged critics to tell him what to cut at a time when so much of the nation is suffering. The Biden administration is now warning that the greatest risk isn’t a large stimulus package, but one that is too small and thus doesn’t meaningfully stimulate economic growth.To position for the stock market to surge higher, Quigg advised clients to consider selling one of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF‘s (ticker: SPY) May $353 put options and buying 15 May $450 call options. When the ETF was at $392.39, the leveraged risk-reversal strategy—that is,selling one put and buying many more calls with a higher strike price but the same expiration—could be done for no cost. In other words, the money received for selling the put was enough to buy 15 bullish calls.The trade expresses high conviction that the ETF—which was recently trading around $387—will reach $450 by May 21, when May options expire. At $460, the call is worth $10.Should the ETF decline, say, because current fears push the market below the $353 strike price, investors would be obligated to buy it at the lower price, or to cover or adjust the puts.Quigg’s trade idea has a lot to admire.For one, the trade carried zero cost when it was recommended late last week. Yes, prices have moved since the Feb. 18 note was published, but investors can recast strike prices to create similar pricing. The markets change, and that’s why there are so many different strike prices that are listed.Moreover, if J.P. Morgan’s base view of the economic reawakening proves true, owning a bundle of upside calls that cost nothing could be quite lucrative. Should the market succumb to the current fears that are weakening prices, owning S&P 500 stocks at lower prices isn’t terrible, either.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500327,"gmtCreate":1614147776269,"gmtModify":1634550980470,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woah hedge funds??","listText":"Woah hedge funds??","text":"Woah hedge funds??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500327","repostId":"1186371880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366317386,"gmtCreate":1614394304345,"gmtModify":1703477245164,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao","listText":"Lmao","text":"Lmao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317386","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500661,"gmtCreate":1614147811653,"gmtModify":1634550980351,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","listText":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","text":"Lmao wot is this guy serious","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500661","repostId":"1191237890","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191237890","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614144729,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191237890?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"How Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191237890","media":"exegy","summary":"Notes:Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13","content":"<p><b>Notes:</b><b>Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附注：</b><b>香港财政司司长陈茂波建议提高股票交易印花税至0.13%</b></blockquote></p><p>The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only&nbsp;transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.</p><p><blockquote>香港政府对所有股份转让的价值征收印花税，这对香港交易所（港交所）的交易成本有重大影响。该税是香港证券交易中支付的最大单一费用，不仅影响交易成本，也影响整个香港市场。因此，在进入这个市场之前，规划其影响是重要的一步。</blockquote></p><p><b>Basics of the Stamp Duty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税基础知识</b></blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.</p><p><blockquote>印花税并不是香港独有的——许多政府都征收金融交易税，但都有不同的规则和豁免。香港的关税适用于在香港交易所上市的所有股票以及香港公司的所有股份转让。印花税目前设定为买卖双方各0.2%-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.</p><p><blockquote>与其他一些市场的关税不同，香港的印花税不区分流动性制造者和接受者。暗池，在香港被称为“另类流动性池”，也要缴纳印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.</p><p><blockquote>交易所参与者须于交收日上午十一时前代客户缴付印花税，交收日为交易日后的第二个交易日。关税以电子方式支付，交易所参与者必须根据其平均每日营业额将存款存入指定账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Comparing the Duty with other Transaction Fees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将关税与其他交易费用进行比较</b></blockquote></p><p>The stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.</p><p><blockquote>印花税约占港交所所有官方交易费用的90%。其他费用包括每边0.0027%的证监会征费、每边0.005%的交易所费及每边0.002%的结算费（由$2至$100不等）。对于每笔交易，无论规模大小，卖方必须支付5.00港元的转让契据印花税，买方必须支付2.50港元的转让费。就做市而言，交易所费用及证监会征费均获豁免。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a89595225a251b89abcc13fc88960f8\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自20世纪90年代初以来，印花税税率已削减了三分之二，但由于香港对印花税收入的依赖，香港政府一直抵制评级废除印花税。政府目前不征收销售税或资本利得税，2017-2018财年股票转让印花税占总收入的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在香港交易的公司必须继续计划如何尽量减少他们的关税责任。市场参与者实现这一目标的一种方法是利用其豁免。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stamp Duty Exemptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税豁免</b></blockquote></p><p>Firms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过交易免税产品来最大限度地增加交易机会，而不会招致印花税。该税仅对股票转让征收，因此现金结算的衍生品以及ETF和其他基于指数的篮子工具无需纳税。在香港，交易员严重依赖这些产品，这使得香港交易所成为全球最大的证券化衍生品交易中心，也是ETF期权交易量领先的亚太市场。</blockquote></p><p>Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.</p><p><blockquote>衍生品合约免征香港印花税，因为它们不涉及股票的实物转让。在香港交易所交易的最受欢迎的衍生品包括认股权证（由公司发行）、可赎回牛熊合约（也由交易所以外的人发行的合约）和内联认股权证（旨在从指数稳定中获利的认股权证）。结构性衍生产品约占港交所2019年日均成交额的21%。可赎回牛/熊合约尤其受欢迎，占该金额的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.</p><p><blockquote>另一个主要类别的印花税免税产品是集合投资——那些基于一篮子基础资产价值的投资，例如交易所交易基金（ETF）。香港于2015年取消了所有ETF的印花税，以更好地与其他全球市场竞争。杠杆和反向产品也包含在此豁免中。他们寻求提供指数的倍数（杠杆）或相反（反向）结果。例如，当恒生指数上涨2%时，2倍杠杆产品的目标是上涨4%，而2倍反向产品的目标是下跌4%。如果没有这些产品的印花税，交易成本分析可能会揭示更有利可图的交易策略。</blockquote></p><p><b>Effects of Stamp Duty on the Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税对市场的影响</b></blockquote></p><p>In addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.</p><p><blockquote>除了交易策略，印花税对香港市场整体来说还有更广泛的挑战。对包括做市在内的所有股票交易征税可能会抑制整体流动性。这反过来会损害价格发现并扩大买卖价差，增加股票及其衍生品交易的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board&nbsp;increased just 21%&nbsp;from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the&nbsp;Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect&nbsp;programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.</p><p><blockquote>港交所增加产品以提振流动性，但成效不大。尽管近年来采取了一些举措，但从2013年12月到2019年12月，交易所主板的日均成交额仅增长了21%。改善流动性是香港2014年决定与中国内地启动沪深股通计划的关键驱动力之一。虽然港股通北向交易不征收香港印花税，但港股通卖家仍需向中国内地政府缴纳等额0.1%印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for&nbsp;43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.</p><p><blockquote>印花税也倾向于将交易活动集中在有限数量的股票上，在香港，统计数据证实了这一点。2019年，20只最活跃股票的成交额占所有股票成交额的43%。这使得大多数证券更难获得流动性，并增加了利差。</blockquote></p><p>While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然印花税对流动性的影响显著影响香港的交易，但地区政治和全球经济加剧了市场的波动。向该地区扩张需要持续了解流动性和波动性的变化，以便最全面地了解该市场的挑战和机遇。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1614144636634","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Hong Kong’s Stamp Duty Impacts Trading on HKEX<blockquote>香港印花税如何影响港交所交易</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">exegy</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Notes:</b><b>Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%</b></p><p><blockquote><b>附注：</b><b>香港财政司司长陈茂波建议提高股票交易印花税至0.13%</b></blockquote></p><p>The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only&nbsp;transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.</p><p><blockquote>香港政府对所有股份转让的价值征收印花税，这对香港交易所（港交所）的交易成本有重大影响。该税是香港证券交易中支付的最大单一费用，不仅影响交易成本，也影响整个香港市场。因此，在进入这个市场之前，规划其影响是重要的一步。</blockquote></p><p><b>Basics of the Stamp Duty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税基础知识</b></blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.</p><p><blockquote>印花税并不是香港独有的——许多政府都征收金融交易税，但都有不同的规则和豁免。香港的关税适用于在香港交易所上市的所有股票以及香港公司的所有股份转让。印花税目前设定为买卖双方各0.2%-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.</p><p><blockquote>与其他一些市场的关税不同，香港的印花税不区分流动性制造者和接受者。暗池，在香港被称为“另类流动性池”，也要缴纳印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.</p><p><blockquote>交易所参与者须于交收日上午十一时前代客户缴付印花税，交收日为交易日后的第二个交易日。关税以电子方式支付，交易所参与者必须根据其平均每日营业额将存款存入指定账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Comparing the Duty with other Transaction Fees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将关税与其他交易费用进行比较</b></blockquote></p><p>The stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.</p><p><blockquote>印花税约占港交所所有官方交易费用的90%。其他费用包括每边0.0027%的证监会征费、每边0.005%的交易所费及每边0.002%的结算费（由$2至$100不等）。对于每笔交易，无论规模大小，卖方必须支付5.00港元的转让契据印花税，买方必须支付2.50港元的转让费。就做市而言，交易所费用及证监会征费均获豁免。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a89595225a251b89abcc13fc88960f8\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.</p><p><blockquote>尽管自20世纪90年代初以来，印花税税率已削减了三分之二，但由于香港对印花税收入的依赖，香港政府一直抵制评级废除印花税。政府目前不征收销售税或资本利得税，2017-2018财年股票转让印花税占总收入的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在香港交易的公司必须继续计划如何尽量减少他们的关税责任。市场参与者实现这一目标的一种方法是利用其豁免。</blockquote></p><p><b>Stamp Duty Exemptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税豁免</b></blockquote></p><p>Firms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过交易免税产品来最大限度地增加交易机会，而不会招致印花税。该税仅对股票转让征收，因此现金结算的衍生品以及ETF和其他基于指数的篮子工具无需纳税。在香港，交易员严重依赖这些产品，这使得香港交易所成为全球最大的证券化衍生品交易中心，也是ETF期权交易量领先的亚太市场。</blockquote></p><p>Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.</p><p><blockquote>衍生品合约免征香港印花税，因为它们不涉及股票的实物转让。在香港交易所交易的最受欢迎的衍生品包括认股权证（由公司发行）、可赎回牛熊合约（也由交易所以外的人发行的合约）和内联认股权证（旨在从指数稳定中获利的认股权证）。结构性衍生产品约占港交所2019年日均成交额的21%。可赎回牛/熊合约尤其受欢迎，占该金额的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.</p><p><blockquote>另一个主要类别的印花税免税产品是集合投资——那些基于一篮子基础资产价值的投资，例如交易所交易基金（ETF）。香港于2015年取消了所有ETF的印花税，以更好地与其他全球市场竞争。杠杆和反向产品也包含在此豁免中。他们寻求提供指数的倍数（杠杆）或相反（反向）结果。例如，当恒生指数上涨2%时，2倍杠杆产品的目标是上涨4%，而2倍反向产品的目标是下跌4%。如果没有这些产品的印花税，交易成本分析可能会揭示更有利可图的交易策略。</blockquote></p><p><b>Effects of Stamp Duty on the Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>印花税对市场的影响</b></blockquote></p><p>In addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.</p><p><blockquote>除了交易策略，印花税对香港市场整体来说还有更广泛的挑战。对包括做市在内的所有股票交易征税可能会抑制整体流动性。这反过来会损害价格发现并扩大买卖价差，增加股票及其衍生品交易的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board&nbsp;increased just 21%&nbsp;from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the&nbsp;Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect&nbsp;programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.</p><p><blockquote>港交所增加产品以提振流动性，但成效不大。尽管近年来采取了一些举措，但从2013年12月到2019年12月，交易所主板的日均成交额仅增长了21%。改善流动性是香港2014年决定与中国内地启动沪深股通计划的关键驱动力之一。虽然港股通北向交易不征收香港印花税，但港股通卖家仍需向中国内地政府缴纳等额0.1%印花税。</blockquote></p><p>Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for&nbsp;43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.</p><p><blockquote>印花税也倾向于将交易活动集中在有限数量的股票上，在香港，统计数据证实了这一点。2019年，20只最活跃股票的成交额占所有股票成交额的43%。这使得大多数证券更难获得流动性，并增加了利差。</blockquote></p><p>While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然印花税对流动性的影响显著影响香港的交易，但地区政治和全球经济加剧了市场的波动。向该地区扩张需要持续了解流动性和波动性的变化，以便最全面地了解该市场的挑战和机遇。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.exegy.com/2020/04/hk-stamp-duty-stock-transfer/\">exegy</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00388":"香港交易所","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"https://www.exegy.com/2020/04/hk-stamp-duty-stock-transfer/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191237890","content_text":"Notes:Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary Paul Chan proposes raising stamp duty on stock trading to 0.13%The Hong Kong government imposes a stamp duty on the value of all share transfers, which has a significant effect on the cost of trading on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). The duty is the largest single fee paid in a securities transaction in Hong Kong, affecting not only transaction costs, but the Hong Kong market as a whole. So, planning for its impact is an important step before entering this market.Basics of the Stamp DutyStamp duties aren’t unique to Hong Kong–many governments impose financial transaction taxes, all with different rules and exemptions. Hong Kong’s duty applies to all stocks listed on the HKEX and all transfers of shares in Hong Kong-based companies. The stamp duty is currently set at 0.2% — 0.1% each from the buyer and the seller.Unlike duties in some other markets, Hong Kong’s stamp duty doesn’t differentiate between liquidity makers and takers. Dark pools, known in Hong Kong as “alternative liquidity pools,” are also subject to the stamp duty.Exchange participants are required to pay the stamp duty on behalf of their clients by 11 a.m. on the settlement date, which is the second trading day following the transaction date. The duty is paid electronically, and exchange participants must keep deposits on hand in a designated account based on their average daily turnover.Comparing the Duty with other Transaction FeesThe stamp duty makes up about 90% of all official transaction fees on the HKEX. Other fees include a Securities and Futures Commission levy of 0.0027% per side, an exchange fee of 0.005% per side, and a settlement fee of 0.002% per side (ranging from $2 to $100). For each trade, regardless of size, the seller must pay a $5.00 HKD transfer of deed stamp duty and the buyer must pay a $2.50 HKD transfer fee. For market-making, the exchange fee and SFC levy are waived.Although the stamp duty rate has been cut by two-thirds since the early 1990s, the Hong Kong government has resisted calls to repeal it, because of the city’s reliance on the revenues it generates. The government currently collects no sales or capital gains taxes, and stamp duties from share transfers made up 6% of total revenues in fiscal year 2017-2018.Therefore, firms trading in Hong Kong must continue to plan for how to minimize their liability from the duty. One way market participants have accomplished this is by leveraging its exemptions.Stamp Duty ExemptionsFirms can maximize trading opportunities without incurring stamp duties by trading in exempted products. The duty is levied only on transfers of shares, so cash-settled derivatives as well as ETFs and other index-based basket instruments are not taxed. In Hong Kong, traders rely heavily on these products, and this has made the Hong Kong Exchange the world’s largest trading center for securitized derivatives and the leading Asia-Pacific market for trading volume of ETF options.Derivative contracts are exempt from Hong Kong’s stamp duty since they don’t involve physical transfer of shares. Among the most popular derivatives trading on the HKEX are warrants (which are company-issued), callable bull/bear contracts (contracts also issued by someone other than the exchange), and inline warrants (warrants designed to profit on index stability). Structured derivative products made up about 21% of HKEX’s average daily turnover in 2019. Callable bull/bear contracts were particularly popular, accounting for more than half of that amount.Another major category of stamp duty-exempt products are pooled investments—those that are based on the value of an underlying basket of assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hong Kong lifted the stamp duty on all ETFs in 2015, to better compete with other global markets. Leveraged and inverse products are also included in this exemption. They seek to deliver a multiple (leveraged) or opposite (inverse) result of an index. For instance, when the Hang Seng Index gains 2%, a 2x leveraged product would aim for a 4% increase, while a 2x inverse product would target a 4% decrease. Without the stamp duty on these products, transaction cost analysis may reveal a more profitable trading strategy.Effects of Stamp Duty on the MarketsIn addition to trading strategies, the stamp duty has more widespread challenges for the Hong Kong market as a whole. Taxing all equities trades, including market making, can dampen overall liquidity. That in turn can impair price discovery and widen bid-ask spreads, adding to the risks of trading equities and their derivatives.HKEX has added products to boost liquidity, with modest results. Despite initiatives in recent years, the average daily turnover for the exchange’s main board increased just 21% from December 2013 to December 2019. Improving liquidity was one of the key drivers of Hong Kong’s 2014 decision to embark on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect programs with mainland China. Although northbound transactions on the Stock Connect are not subject to the Hong Kong stamp duty, sellers on the Stock Connect still pay an equal-sized 0.1% stamp duty to the mainland Chinese government.Stamp duties also tend to concentrate trading activity in a limited number of stocks, and in Hong Kong, the statistics bear that out. In 2019, turnover of the 20 most active stocks accounted for 43% of all equities turnover. This makes access to liquidity on most securities harder to come by and increases spreads.While the stamp duty’s effect on liquidity significantly impacts trading in Hong Kong, regional politics and global economics have heightened volatility in the market. Expanding to this region requires continued awareness to shifting liquidity and volatility in order to have the fullest picture of the challenges and opportunities of this market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00388":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363277744,"gmtCreate":1614147743488,"gmtModify":1634550980590,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY DIP TIME","listText":"BUY DIP TIME","text":"BUY DIP TIME","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363277744","repostId":"1197530704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366317705,"gmtCreate":1614394389207,"gmtModify":1703477246410,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Coool soon we can normal life","listText":"Coool soon we can normal life","text":"Coool soon we can normal life","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366317705","repostId":"2114371822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363509068,"gmtCreate":1614147869155,"gmtModify":1634550979991,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy the dip!!","listText":"Time to buy the dip!!","text":"Time to buy the dip!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363509068","repostId":"1185609211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614139419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185609211","media":"TheStreet","summary":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell","content":"<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain&nbsp;quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power&nbsp; (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys&nbsp; (SSYS) and ExOne&nbsp; (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape&nbsp; (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) &nbsp;are up 150% and 123%,&nbsp;respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%,&nbsp;respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers&nbsp;have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the&nbsp;huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point&nbsp;on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed&nbsp;remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the&nbsp;more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain&nbsp;quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power&nbsp; (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys&nbsp; (SSYS) and ExOne&nbsp; (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape&nbsp; (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) &nbsp;are up 150% and 123%,&nbsp;respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%,&nbsp;respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers&nbsp;have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the&nbsp;huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point&nbsp;on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed&nbsp;remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the&nbsp;more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","FCEL":"燃料电池能源","DDD":"3D系统","APHA":"Aphria Inc.","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","SSYS":"Stratasys","PLUG":"普拉格能源","XONE":"BondBloxx Bloomberg One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185609211","content_text":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.\nWhile many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.\nFor example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power  (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.\nLikewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys  (SSYS) and ExOne  (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape  (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR)  are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.\nIn a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.\nAlso, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.\nWith all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.\nIn spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.\nEventually, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.\nAs a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLDP":0.9,"LAZR":0.9,"XONE":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"SSYS":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"DDD":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"APHA":0.9,"QS":0.9,"FCEL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363500583,"gmtCreate":1614147842942,"gmtModify":1634550980230,"author":{"id":"3577108112520561","authorId":"3577108112520561","name":"toranoana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8dc5fe9f0a6161a972783ed332747e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577108112520561","idStr":"3577108112520561"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","listText":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","text":"Hope we can buy in on the fire sale to come!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363500583","repostId":"1111682954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111682954","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614143481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111682954?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 13:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111682954","media":"Barrons","summary":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold","content":"<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has More Room to Rise: Credit Suisse<blockquote>瑞士信贷：标普500有更大上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 13:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>最近的盈利太好了，不容忽视，如果经济出现正确的发展，它们可能会比目前的水平大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷周二将标普500指数2021年目标价从4,200美元上调至4,300美元。这意味着策略师预计该指数到今年年底将较当前水平上涨11%以上。相对于华尔街的普遍观点，这甚至不是一个激进的预测。FactSet追踪的公司的平均看涨期权预计将达到4,400美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.</p><p><blockquote>但看涨有真正的价值。瑞士信贷首席美国股票策略师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)写道：“随着经济重新开放、刺激措施充足以及美联储政策超级宽松，预计2021年GDP将比过去35年来的任何时候都更热也就不足为奇了。”，在笔记中。</blockquote></p><p> He argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&amp;P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.</p><p><blockquote>他认为，由于标普500公司第四季度每股收益总额超出分析师预期17%，而且绝大多数公司已经公布了业绩，因此盈利预期必须上调。</blockquote></p><p> Higher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&amp;P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>对盈利的较高预期通常会导致股票价格上涨。Golub将标普500每股收益的总体宏观预期从2021年的175美元上调至185美元，从2022年的200美元上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> At first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.</p><p><blockquote>起初，投资者似乎并不关心公司对第四季度盈利的预期相形见绌。理由是，结果并不重要，因为如果Covid-19疫苗不能如期推出或不能充分免疫新毒株，当地经济将无法重新开放，收入将崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> But now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day&nbsp;and&nbsp;trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&amp;P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，疫苗每天都有数百万只手臂，预计还会有数万亿美元的额外财政刺激来支持需求。就在几周前，本季度的盈利预期还低于第四季度的预期结果，因此随着与Covid-19相关的限制解除，华尔街上调盈利预期也就不足为奇了。策略师目前平均预计标普500 2022年每股收益为198美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是标普500上平均股票的每股收益可能是多少倍。Golub预计，到今年年底，该指数的市盈率将略高于2022年总市盈率的20倍。这低于目前未来12个月盈利预期的约22倍。</blockquote></p><p> Lower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍预计估值会下降，因为安全的美国国债收益率正在上升。较高的收益率使得持有股票的风险逐渐变得不那么有吸引力，从而减少了投资者愿意为未来每美元收益支付的金额。</blockquote></p><p> But the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.</p><p><blockquote>但利率上升也反映了对经济和通胀预期的改善，这与可能推高股价的盈利改善是一致的。</blockquote></p><p> None of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.</p><p><blockquote>这些都不意味着没有风险。疫苗接种的任何重大挫折都将不利于盈利，美联储加息过高、过快的决定将给经济和股票估值带来风险。</blockquote></p><p> Still, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，风险正在消退。由于股市在当前的抛售中面临压力，上涨的潜力可能会增加。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/s-p-500-can-keep-rising-credit-suisse-says-thank-earnings-51614109642?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111682954","content_text":"Earnings have been too good to ignore recently, and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current levels.\nCredit Suisseraised its 2021 price target for the S&P 500to $4,300 from $4,200 on Tuesday. That means the strategists see the index gaining more than 11% by the end of the year from the current level. That isn’t even an aggressive prediction relative to the prevailing view on Wall Street. The average call among firms tracked by FactSet is for the index to hit $4,400.\nBut the bullishness has true merit. “With the economy reopening, stimulus abundant, and Fed policy uber-accommodative, it is no surprise that 2021 GDP is expected to run hotter than at any time in the past 35 years,” wrote Jonathan Golub, Credit Suisse’s chief U.S. equity strategist, in a note.\nHe argued that because aggregate fourth-quarter earnings per share for companies in the S&P 500 has exceeded analysts’ forecasts by 17%, with the vast majority of firms having reported their results, earnings estimates must rise.\nHigher expectations for earnings generally lead to higher prices for stocks. Golub lifted his aggregate, macro-based estimates for S&P 500 EPS to $185 from $175 in 2021, and to $210 from $200 in 2022.\nAt first,investors didn’t seem to care that companies were putting expectations for fourth-quarter earnings to shame. The results didn’t matter, the reasoning went, because if Covid-19 vaccines couldn’t roll out on schedule or couldn’t adequately immunize against new strains, local economies wouldn’t be able to reopen and earnings would collapse.\nBut now,vaccines are finding millions of arms a day and trillions of dollars of added fiscal stimulus that would support demandare expected. Earnings estimates for the current quarterwere lower than the expected result for the fourth quarterjust a few weeks ago, so it is no surprise to see Wall Street increase them as restrictions related to Covid-19 are lifted. Strategists, on average, currently see EPS for the S&P 500 coming in at $198 for 2022.\nThe next question is at what multiple of per-share earnings the average stock on the S&P 500 is likely to trade. Golub sees the index at trading just above 20 times aggregate earnings for 2022 by the end of this year. That is down from roughly 22 times earnings expectations for the next 12 months currently.\nLower valuations are widely expected because yields on safe, U.S. Treasury debt are rising.Higher yieldsmake the risk of being in stocks incrementally less attractive, reducing the amount investors are willing to pay per dollar of future earnings.\nBut the rising rates also reflect improving expectations for the economy and inflation, which is consistent with better earnings that could power stock prices higher.\nNone of this means there aren’t risks. Any major setback to vaccinations would be detrimental to earnings and a decision from the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates too high, too soon, would be a risk to the economy and to stock valuations.\nStill, risks are subsiding. The potential for gains may build asstocks come under pressure in the current selloff.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}