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2021-09-12

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2021-09-09

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2021-09-07

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Investors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote>

2021-09-06

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Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>

2021-09-06

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2021-09-03

Good

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2021-09-03

Nice

IGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote>

2021-09-03

Good news!

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2021-09-02

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2021-09-02

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2021-09-02

Good post

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2021-09-02

Nice!!

Could Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote>

2021-09-01

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-08-31

Good post

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2021-08-25

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2021-08-25

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2021-08-23

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2021-08-21

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2021-08-17

Good post

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Good post

The 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote>

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and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883398531","repostId":"1144589302","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817410960,"gmtCreate":1630979709250,"gmtModify":1631889383340,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817410960","repostId":"2165809018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165809018","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630975805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165809018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165809018","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Even pros rarely beat the stock market\nGetty Images\nBeating the market is so difficult that you'd be","content":"<p>Even pros rarely beat the stock market</p><p><blockquote>即使是专业人士也很少跑赢股市</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c518e42fc389c9a262ce1a76a11d484e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.</p><p><blockquote>战胜市场是如此困难，你放弃是情有可原的。</blockquote></p><p> But unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.</p><p><blockquote>但与你在生活中其他地方放弃时会发生的情况不同，在投资领域，这实际上是一种精明的获胜策略。</blockquote></p><p> After more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&amp;P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.</p><p><blockquote>经过40多年对投资顾问业绩的严格审计，我了解到，从长远来看，购买并持有跟踪标普500或其他广泛指数的指数基金几乎总是领先于所有其他做得更好的尝试，例如市场时机或选择特定股票、ETF和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> It's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?</p><p><blockquote>当你想到这一点时，你会感到惊讶：生活中还有什么其他的追求，你可以通过简单地袖手旁观，无所事事来接近赢得每一场比赛？</blockquote></p><p> I'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说不可能战胜市场。我想说的是这非常困难和罕见。在一个时期跑赢市场的顾问在下一个时期也跑赢市场的情况就更罕见了。</blockquote></p><p> I am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>我不是第一个指出这一点的人。但我能为这场辩论做出贡献的是我广泛的绩效数据库，其中包含了1980年以来的真实世界回报。它令人信服地表明，当你试图击败市场时，你的胜算是多么低。</blockquote></p><p> My first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.</p><p><blockquote>我从庞大的数据库中汲取投资经验的第一步是构建一个投资通讯投资组合列表，这些投资组合自1980年以来在给定日历年的任何时候都处于业绩前10%的位置。考虑到《我的赫伯特金融文摘》多年来监测的时事通讯数量，这份表现最好的十分之一的名单相当大，包含超过1,500个投资组合。从结构上看，他们的表现排名都在90到100之间，平均为95。</blockquote></p><p> What I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.</p><p><blockquote>我想衡量的是这些时事通讯组合在接下来的一年中的表现。如果表现是一个纯粹的技能问题，那么我们预计他们在第二年的表现也会排在前十分位——平均百分位排名也是95。</blockquote></p><p> That's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不是我发现的——一点也不。这些时事通讯在第二年的平均百分位排名仅为51.5。从统计数据来看，这与如果表现纯粹是运气问题，则为50.0相似。</blockquote></p><p> I next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我对第一年绩效排名的其他九个十分位数重复了这一分析。从这张图表中可以看出，无论他们第一年的表现如何，他们在随后几年的预期排名都非常接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebfad8a8d9638e4b57cf085b425e5742\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是第一年回报率垫底10%的时事通讯。第二年的平均百分位排名为38.8——如果表现纯粹是运气问题，这远远低于你的预期。换句话说，一年最差的顾问在下一年的表现也将低于平均水平，这是一个不错的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> What these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果意味着什么：虽然投资咨询的表现不是纯粹的随机性问题，但与随机性的偏差主要发生在表现最差的人身上，而不是表现最好的人。不幸的是，这并不能帮助我们战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，不要认为你可以通过争论其他类型的顾问比时事通讯编辑更好来摆脱这些结论。至少就过去和未来表现之间的持久性（或缺乏持久性）而言，时事通讯编辑与共同基金、ETF、对冲基金和私募股权基金的经理没有什么不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of arrogance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谨防傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信这些数据是确凿的，但我并不认为它会说服你们中的许多人认输并选择指数基金。这是因为典型的投资者往往认为，战胜市场的可能性很小，适用于其他人，但不适用于他个人。</blockquote></p><p> It reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.</p><p><blockquote>这让我想起了一项著名的研究，在这项研究中，几乎所有人都表示我们是比平均水平更好的司机。</blockquote></p><p> This arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.</p><p><blockquote>这种傲慢显然对我们的道路和高速公路产生了危险的后果。但这在投资领域也是危险的，因为它会导致投资者承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.</p><p><blockquote>这就造成了一个螺旋式下降：当傲慢的投资者开始输给市场时（这迟早不可避免地会发生），他会采取风险更大的策略来弥补之前的损失。这反过来又不可避免地导致他遭受更大的损失。循环重复。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到社交媒体时，傲慢的诱惑尤其明显。心理学家发现，年轻投资者在被监视时远比独自操作时更倾向于追求高风险策略。这有助于解释以投资为重点的社交媒体平台上经常表现出的虚张声势。</blockquote></p><p> Buying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.</p><p><blockquote>购买并持有指数基金很无聊。追随者很少首先被社交媒体吸引，即使他们被吸引，他们也很少发布他们继续持有多年来的相同投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of this trick, too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>也要小心这招</b></blockquote></p><p> A similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.</p><p><blockquote>类似的动态导致那些经常使用社交媒体的人吹嘘他们壮观的赢家，而忽视他们的输家。他们经常这样做的一种方式是将短期交易的回报按年计算，然后吹嘘这个数字。想象一下，一只股票在一周内从10美元涨到11美元。就其本身而言，这似乎并不特别引人注目。然而，按年化计算，这相当于超过14,000%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Readers of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.</p><p><blockquote>这些社交媒体吹嘘的读者最初必须相信他们是唯一一个既有输赢交易的人。直到后来，他们才发现社交媒体平台的潜规则：向其他投资者询问他们的输家是一种糟糕的形式，就像在一轮高尔夫球后询问自吹自擂的高尔夫球手是否真的打出了标准杆是一种糟糕的礼仪一样。</blockquote></p><p> Humility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"</p><p><blockquote>谦逊是投资领域的一种美德。我们最好记住苏格拉底的名言：“我是世上最聪明的人，因为我知道一件事，那就是我什么都不知道。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even pros rarely beat the stock market</p><p><blockquote>即使是专业人士也很少跑赢股市</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c518e42fc389c9a262ce1a76a11d484e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.</p><p><blockquote>战胜市场是如此困难，你放弃是情有可原的。</blockquote></p><p> But unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.</p><p><blockquote>但与你在生活中其他地方放弃时会发生的情况不同，在投资领域，这实际上是一种精明的获胜策略。</blockquote></p><p> After more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&amp;P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.</p><p><blockquote>经过40多年对投资顾问业绩的严格审计，我了解到，从长远来看，购买并持有跟踪标普500或其他广泛指数的指数基金几乎总是领先于所有其他做得更好的尝试，例如市场时机或选择特定股票、ETF和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> It's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?</p><p><blockquote>当你想到这一点时，你会感到惊讶：生活中还有什么其他的追求，你可以通过简单地袖手旁观，无所事事来接近赢得每一场比赛？</blockquote></p><p> I'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说不可能战胜市场。我想说的是这非常困难和罕见。在一个时期跑赢市场的顾问在下一个时期也跑赢市场的情况就更罕见了。</blockquote></p><p> I am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>我不是第一个指出这一点的人。但我能为这场辩论做出贡献的是我广泛的绩效数据库，其中包含了1980年以来的真实世界回报。它令人信服地表明，当你试图击败市场时，你的胜算是多么低。</blockquote></p><p> My first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.</p><p><blockquote>我从庞大的数据库中汲取投资经验的第一步是构建一个投资通讯投资组合列表，这些投资组合自1980年以来在给定日历年的任何时候都处于业绩前10%的位置。考虑到《我的赫伯特金融文摘》多年来监测的时事通讯数量，这份表现最好的十分之一的名单相当大，包含超过1,500个投资组合。从结构上看，他们的表现排名都在90到100之间，平均为95。</blockquote></p><p> What I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.</p><p><blockquote>我想衡量的是这些时事通讯组合在接下来的一年中的表现。如果表现是一个纯粹的技能问题，那么我们预计他们在第二年的表现也会排在前十分位——平均百分位排名也是95。</blockquote></p><p> That's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不是我发现的——一点也不。这些时事通讯在第二年的平均百分位排名仅为51.5。从统计数据来看，这与如果表现纯粹是运气问题，则为50.0相似。</blockquote></p><p> I next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我对第一年绩效排名的其他九个十分位数重复了这一分析。从这张图表中可以看出，无论他们第一年的表现如何，他们在随后几年的预期排名都非常接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebfad8a8d9638e4b57cf085b425e5742\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是第一年回报率垫底10%的时事通讯。第二年的平均百分位排名为38.8——如果表现纯粹是运气问题，这远远低于你的预期。换句话说，一年最差的顾问在下一年的表现也将低于平均水平，这是一个不错的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> What these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果意味着什么：虽然投资咨询的表现不是纯粹的随机性问题，但与随机性的偏差主要发生在表现最差的人身上，而不是表现最好的人。不幸的是，这并不能帮助我们战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，不要认为你可以通过争论其他类型的顾问比时事通讯编辑更好来摆脱这些结论。至少就过去和未来表现之间的持久性（或缺乏持久性）而言，时事通讯编辑与共同基金、ETF、对冲基金和私募股权基金的经理没有什么不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of arrogance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谨防傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信这些数据是确凿的，但我并不认为它会说服你们中的许多人认输并选择指数基金。这是因为典型的投资者往往认为，战胜市场的可能性很小，适用于其他人，但不适用于他个人。</blockquote></p><p> It reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.</p><p><blockquote>这让我想起了一项著名的研究，在这项研究中，几乎所有人都表示我们是比平均水平更好的司机。</blockquote></p><p> This arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.</p><p><blockquote>这种傲慢显然对我们的道路和高速公路产生了危险的后果。但这在投资领域也是危险的，因为它会导致投资者承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.</p><p><blockquote>这就造成了一个螺旋式下降：当傲慢的投资者开始输给市场时（这迟早不可避免地会发生），他会采取风险更大的策略来弥补之前的损失。这反过来又不可避免地导致他遭受更大的损失。循环重复。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到社交媒体时，傲慢的诱惑尤其明显。心理学家发现，年轻投资者在被监视时远比独自操作时更倾向于追求高风险策略。这有助于解释以投资为重点的社交媒体平台上经常表现出的虚张声势。</blockquote></p><p> Buying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.</p><p><blockquote>购买并持有指数基金很无聊。追随者很少首先被社交媒体吸引，即使他们被吸引，他们也很少发布他们继续持有多年来的相同投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of this trick, too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>也要小心这招</b></blockquote></p><p> A similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.</p><p><blockquote>类似的动态导致那些经常使用社交媒体的人吹嘘他们壮观的赢家，而忽视他们的输家。他们经常这样做的一种方式是将短期交易的回报按年计算，然后吹嘘这个数字。想象一下，一只股票在一周内从10美元涨到11美元。就其本身而言，这似乎并不特别引人注目。然而，按年化计算，这相当于超过14,000%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Readers of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.</p><p><blockquote>这些社交媒体吹嘘的读者最初必须相信他们是唯一一个既有输赢交易的人。直到后来，他们才发现社交媒体平台的潜规则：向其他投资者询问他们的输家是一种糟糕的形式，就像在一轮高尔夫球后询问自吹自擂的高尔夫球手是否真的打出了标准杆是一种糟糕的礼仪一样。</blockquote></p><p> Humility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"</p><p><blockquote>谦逊是投资领域的一种美德。我们最好记住苏格拉底的名言：“我是世上最聪明的人，因为我知道一件事，那就是我什么都不知道。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-love-to-boast-about-their-great-stock-picks-but-beware-of-those-who-use-fancy-math-to-calculate-their-gains-11630784143?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-love-to-boast-about-their-great-stock-picks-but-beware-of-those-who-use-fancy-math-to-calculate-their-gains-11630784143?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165809018","content_text":"Even pros rarely beat the stock market\nGetty Images\nBeating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.\nBut unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.\nAfter more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.\nIt's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?\nI'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.\nI am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.\nMy first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.\nWhat I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.\nThat's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.\nI next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.\n\nThe only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.\nWhat these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.\nBy the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.\nBeware of arrogance\nWhile I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.\nIt reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.\nThis arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.\nThat creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.\nThe temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.\nBuying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.\nBeware of this trick, too\nA similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.\nReaders of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.\nHumility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814725048,"gmtCreate":1630886837384,"gmtModify":1631889383336,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814725048","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814722928,"gmtCreate":1630886793664,"gmtModify":1631889383342,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814722928","repostId":"2165804101","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815683041,"gmtCreate":1630675573183,"gmtModify":1631889383343,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815683041","repostId":"1106356660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815689145,"gmtCreate":1630675502787,"gmtModify":1631889383346,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815689145","repostId":"1142162122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142162122","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630675377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142162122?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142162122","media":"Benzinga","summary":"International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casin","content":"<p><div> International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>国际游戏技术公司与奥奈达国家保留地的奥奈达赌场签署了一项协议，为体育博彩提供动力。该交易的财务条款没有披露。这...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>国际游戏技术公司与奥奈达国家保留地的奥奈达赌场签署了一项协议，为体育博彩提供动力。该交易的财务条款没有披露。这...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142162122","content_text":"International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.\nThe agreement will allow IGT to expand its PlaySports platform footprint into Wisconsin.\nOneida Casino, located at 2020 Airport Drive in Green Bay, will leverage IGT's PlaySports solution for retail and mobile sports betting.\nThe Oneida Nation is the first tribe in Wisconsin to receive approval from the State government to operate a sports betting program at a casino.\nPrice Action: IGT shares closed higher by 1.56% at $21.49 on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815680435,"gmtCreate":1630675467127,"gmtModify":1631889383350,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news!","listText":"Good news!","text":"Good news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815680435","repostId":"1136677026","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812393834,"gmtCreate":1630550686528,"gmtModify":1631889383355,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812393834","repostId":"1121030066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812393994,"gmtCreate":1630550663918,"gmtModify":1631889383359,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812393994","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812399743,"gmtCreate":1630550644682,"gmtModify":1631892732251,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812399743","repostId":"1110833427","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812399335,"gmtCreate":1630550619927,"gmtModify":1631892732258,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!!","listText":"Nice!!","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812399335","repostId":"1187594690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187594690","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630541802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187594690?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187594690","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Support.com and Vinco Ventures, Inc. are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retai","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a> </b>and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">Vinco Ventures, Inc.</a> </b>are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">文科风险投资公司。</a></b>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ihor Dusaniwsky</b>, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable&nbsp;short squeeze in&nbsp;Support.com and Vinco Ventures&nbsp;may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基</b>S3 Partners预测分析主管周三在CNBC上表示，Support.com和Vinco Ventures可能永远不会出现大规模的空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Most people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a></b> &nbsp;and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>, which&nbsp;Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>大多数人都熟悉发生在<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>，Dusaniwsky将其称为“OG模因股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The move starts&nbsp;with \"act one,\" which entails&nbsp;relentless buying, pushing&nbsp;the stock price higher.&nbsp;This is&nbsp;followed by \"act two,\" in which&nbsp;short sellers cover&nbsp;their positions, creating&nbsp;a&nbsp;short squeeze situation,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>此举从“第一幕”开始，需要无情的买入，推高股价。杜萨尼夫斯基表示，接下来是“第二幕”，卖空者回补头寸，造成轧空局面。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们已经在BBIG和SPRT等股票中采取了行动，但不幸的是，没有足够的卖空对股价产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> There are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>他告诉CNBC，Support.com有600万股被做空，Vinco Ventures有1000万股被做空。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much&nbsp;because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示，即使卖空者补仓，也不会对股价产生太大影响，因为与每日交易量相比，这只是一小部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm not saying&nbsp;there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这些名字不会出现空头挤压，因为很可能会出现空头挤压。”</blockquote></p><p> Dusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基告诉CNBC，这次挤压不会像游戏驿站和AMC院线发生的挤压那么严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 08:16</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a> </b>and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">Vinco Ventures, Inc.</a> </b>are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">文科风险投资公司。</a></b>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ihor Dusaniwsky</b>, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable&nbsp;short squeeze in&nbsp;Support.com and Vinco Ventures&nbsp;may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基</b>S3 Partners预测分析主管周三在CNBC上表示，Support.com和Vinco Ventures可能永远不会出现大规模的空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Most people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a></b> &nbsp;and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>, which&nbsp;Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>大多数人都熟悉发生在<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>，Dusaniwsky将其称为“OG模因股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The move starts&nbsp;with \"act one,\" which entails&nbsp;relentless buying, pushing&nbsp;the stock price higher.&nbsp;This is&nbsp;followed by \"act two,\" in which&nbsp;short sellers cover&nbsp;their positions, creating&nbsp;a&nbsp;short squeeze situation,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>此举从“第一幕”开始，需要无情的买入，推高股价。杜萨尼夫斯基表示，接下来是“第二幕”，卖空者回补头寸，造成轧空局面。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们已经在BBIG和SPRT等股票中采取了行动，但不幸的是，没有足够的卖空对股价产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> There are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>他告诉CNBC，Support.com有600万股被做空，Vinco Ventures有1000万股被做空。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much&nbsp;because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示，即使卖空者补仓，也不会对股价产生太大影响，因为与每日交易量相比，这只是一小部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm not saying&nbsp;there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这些名字不会出现空头挤压，因为很可能会出现空头挤压。”</blockquote></p><p> Dusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基告诉CNBC，这次挤压不会像游戏驿站和AMC院线发生的挤压那么严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBIG":"Vinco Ventures, Inc.","SPRT":"Support.com"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187594690","content_text":"Support.com and Vinco Ventures, Inc. are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.\nIhor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable short squeeze in Support.com and Vinco Ventures may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.\nMost people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in GameStop  and AMC Entertainment, which Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"\nThe move starts with \"act one,\" which entails relentless buying, pushing the stock price higher. This is followed by \"act two,\" in which short sellers cover their positions, creating a short squeeze situation, Dusaniwsky said.\n\"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"\nThere are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.\nEven if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume, Dusaniwsky said.\n\"I'm not saying there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"\nDusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC Entertainment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPRT":0.9,"BBIG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816500599,"gmtCreate":1630505837211,"gmtModify":1631892732260,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my post&nbsp;","listText":"Like my post&nbsp;","text":"Like my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816500599","repostId":"1150578459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150578459","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630498127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150578459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150578459","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&P 500 on course to a new opening high, as i","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&amp;P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周三上涨，推动标普500有望创下开盘新高，投资者等待私人就业数据和工厂活动指标，以寻找美联储政策收紧计划的暗示。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨111点，涨幅0.31%，标普500 e-mini上涨15.5点，涨幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨40.5点，涨幅0.26%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c9a5df62064a2a342e83495168d97a9\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&amp;P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街主要股指近期屡创新高，标普500 8月份强劲上涨2.9%，原因是投资者摆脱了新增感染病例增加的风险，并希望美联储逐步取消刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>-这家食品生产商最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，调整后每股收益为55美分，比市场预期高出7美分。该公司发布的2022财年调整后每股收益预期为2.75-2.85美元，而市场普遍预期为2.87美元，原因是该公司应对投入成本上升和劳动力市场受限的问题。该股最初在盘前交易中上涨超过1%，但随后涨幅有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH Corp</a> – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH公司</a>-PVH报告调整后季度收益为每股2.72美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.20美元，而该服装制造商的收入也超出了预期。Tommy Hilfiger和Calvin Klein品牌背后的公司也上调了全年收入预期。PVH股价盘前飙升7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">Ambarella</a> – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">安巴雷拉</a>-Ambarella在盘前交易中上涨9.1%，比预期高出10美分，调整后季度利润为每股35美分。收入也超出了分析师的预期。这家汽车和相机芯片制造商表示，需求很高，本季度收入可能达到5年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.</a> – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike控股公司。</a>-CrowdStrike调整后季度收益为每股11美分，超出华尔街预期2美分，而收入也高于预期。这家网络安全公司还上调了全年预期，但股价在盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Royal Philips NV</a> – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">皇家飞利浦公司</a>-飞利浦在FDA批准其更换消音材料的提案后，获得了FDA的许可，开始维修和更换其DreamStation呼吸设备。这家荷兰科技公司在6月份召回了多达400万台设备，以解决消音泡沫的潜在毒性问题。飞利浦盘前上涨2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a> – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a>-在分析师两次积极提及后，这家太阳能公司的股价在盘前上涨3.6%。它被添加到摩根大通的美国分析师焦点名单中，也是沃尔夫研究公司新报道中被评为“市场跑赢大盘”的清洁能源股票之一。沃尔夫表示，清洁能源转型是一个长期趋势，将远远超过当前的经济周期。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>-这家中国电动汽车制造商以供应链限制为由下调了第三季度交付预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">Intuit</a> – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">直觉</a>–据接受彭博社采访的知情人士透露，Intuit正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购电子邮件营销公司Mailchimp。这样的交易将增加这家个人理财软件公司为小型企业提供的工具，其中包括QuickBooks和Credit Karma。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>–西南航空飞行员正在起诉该航空公司，指控该航空公司在Covid-19大流行期间对工作条件进行了改变。飞行员认为这些变化应该与工会进行谈判，而该公司表示不需要进行此类谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a> – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>-根据地面运输委员会的裁决，加拿大国民航空将不被允许使用临时投票信托作为其300亿美元收购堪萨斯城南方航空(KSU)交易的一部分。这可能会给完成交易带来重大障碍，也是加拿大太平洋铁路公司（CP）的另一个机会，该公司也提出收购堪萨斯城南方铁路公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">Sprouts Farmers</a> – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">豆芽农民</a>-Sprouts表示，其首席财务官Denise Paulonis将离开这家天然食品连锁超市，董事会成员Lawrence Molloy将于9月25日接替Paulonis。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 20:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&amp;P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周三上涨，推动标普500有望创下开盘新高，投资者等待私人就业数据和工厂活动指标，以寻找美联储政策收紧计划的暗示。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨111点，涨幅0.31%，标普500 e-mini上涨15.5点，涨幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨40.5点，涨幅0.26%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c9a5df62064a2a342e83495168d97a9\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&amp;P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街主要股指近期屡创新高，标普500 8月份强劲上涨2.9%，原因是投资者摆脱了新增感染病例增加的风险，并希望美联储逐步取消刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>-这家食品生产商最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，调整后每股收益为55美分，比市场预期高出7美分。该公司发布的2022财年调整后每股收益预期为2.75-2.85美元，而市场普遍预期为2.87美元，原因是该公司应对投入成本上升和劳动力市场受限的问题。该股最初在盘前交易中上涨超过1%，但随后涨幅有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH Corp</a> – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH公司</a>-PVH报告调整后季度收益为每股2.72美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.20美元，而该服装制造商的收入也超出了预期。Tommy Hilfiger和Calvin Klein品牌背后的公司也上调了全年收入预期。PVH股价盘前飙升7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">Ambarella</a> – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">安巴雷拉</a>-Ambarella在盘前交易中上涨9.1%，比预期高出10美分，调整后季度利润为每股35美分。收入也超出了分析师的预期。这家汽车和相机芯片制造商表示，需求很高，本季度收入可能达到5年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.</a> – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike控股公司。</a>-CrowdStrike调整后季度收益为每股11美分，超出华尔街预期2美分，而收入也高于预期。这家网络安全公司还上调了全年预期，但股价在盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Royal Philips NV</a> – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">皇家飞利浦公司</a>-飞利浦在FDA批准其更换消音材料的提案后，获得了FDA的许可，开始维修和更换其DreamStation呼吸设备。这家荷兰科技公司在6月份召回了多达400万台设备，以解决消音泡沫的潜在毒性问题。飞利浦盘前上涨2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a> – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a>-在分析师两次积极提及后，这家太阳能公司的股价在盘前上涨3.6%。它被添加到摩根大通的美国分析师焦点名单中，也是沃尔夫研究公司新报道中被评为“市场跑赢大盘”的清洁能源股票之一。沃尔夫表示，清洁能源转型是一个长期趋势，将远远超过当前的经济周期。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>-这家中国电动汽车制造商以供应链限制为由下调了第三季度交付预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">Intuit</a> – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">直觉</a>–据接受彭博社采访的知情人士透露，Intuit正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购电子邮件营销公司Mailchimp。这样的交易将增加这家个人理财软件公司为小型企业提供的工具，其中包括QuickBooks和Credit Karma。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>–西南航空飞行员正在起诉该航空公司，指控该航空公司在Covid-19大流行期间对工作条件进行了改变。飞行员认为这些变化应该与工会进行谈判，而该公司表示不需要进行此类谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a> – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>-根据地面运输委员会的裁决，加拿大国民航空将不被允许使用临时投票信托作为其300亿美元收购堪萨斯城南方航空(KSU)交易的一部分。这可能会给完成交易带来重大障碍，也是加拿大太平洋铁路公司（CP）的另一个机会，该公司也提出收购堪萨斯城南方铁路公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">Sprouts Farmers</a> – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">豆芽农民</a>-Sprouts表示，其首席财务官Denise Paulonis将离开这家天然食品连锁超市，董事会成员Lawrence Molloy将于9月25日接替Paulonis。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150578459","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nWall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nCampbell Soup – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.\nPVH Corp – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.\nAmbarella – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.\nCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.\nRoyal Philips NV – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.\nSunrun – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.\nNIO Inc. – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.\nIntuit – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.\nSouthwest Airlines – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.\nCanadian National Railway – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.\nSprouts Farmers – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818016645,"gmtCreate":1630365883087,"gmtModify":1704959043685,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good 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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836665212","repostId":"2160271025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839477574,"gmtCreate":1629178390598,"gmtModify":1631892732277,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839477574","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839474201,"gmtCreate":1629178318003,"gmtModify":1631892732285,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577921698084479","authorIdStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839474201","repostId":"1165381771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165381771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165381771?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165381771","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Find out what market participants will be talking about tomorrow.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Monday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.</li>  <li>Two key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.</li> </ul> Wall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)and&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;managed to post modest gains, and even the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一股市涨跌互现，从当天低点反弹。</li><li>两只关键股票可能决定周二整个市场的走向。</li></ul>周一上午，华尔街从早盘的跌幅中反弹，收盘涨跌互现。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)和<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)成功实现小幅上涨，甚至<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）全天跌幅大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5b728c1f5236c709db3e0270dc3e75\" tg-width=\"1152\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the&nbsp;retail stocks&nbsp; prepare to release their latest financial reports.</p><p><blockquote>财报季开始接近尾声，但仍有一些备受瞩目的股票尚未公布财报。目前市场上最重要的两只股票将于周二早些时候公布盈利结果，这就是投资者应该关注的原因<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）在零售股准备发布最新财务报告之际极其接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b731f72fd9967ccb54241783515762a\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Feeling at home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宾至如归的感觉</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝是周一盘中大幅波动的股票之一。这家家居装修零售商最初下跌1%，最终反弹，当天涨幅超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet what many investors are&nbsp;anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize&nbsp;on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者焦急等待的是家得宝如何利用人们对房屋装修和维护的持续兴趣。大多数关注该股的人预计家得宝第二财季的盈利将比去年同期至少增长10%，销售额同比增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> If those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果与家得宝过去的业绩相比，这些增长率似乎有点不温不火，那么将去年的数据放在背景中很重要。与2019年同期相比，一年前的销售额飙升了23%，因为那些应对封锁措施的人为了抵御疫情而对房屋进行了大量投资。利润同比增长近25%。现在，随着这些投资取得了成果，一些房主正在继续改善，但许多人会对他们迄今为止的努力感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart makes its move</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛出手</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价周一收盘上涨略低于1%。该零售商将在周二开盘前公布第二季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.</p><p><blockquote>在一年前的重磅业绩之后，投资者对沃尔玛抱有合理的期望。盈利应与去年第二季度大致持平，销售额可能同比下降1%左右。同样，比较有些困难，因为与疫情爆发前的2019年同期相比，去年同期的盈利增长了近80%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of&nbsp;uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like&nbsp;<b>Target</b>. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛目前存在很多不确定性。强劲的经济应该会提振消费者支出，但如果消费者决定从竞争对手那里购买更昂贵的商品，例如<b>目标</b>相反，一些人担心最近COVID-19病例的增加可能会开始侵蚀经济增长，这似乎越来越多地反映在消费者信心指标中。</blockquote></p><p> From a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，沃尔玛面临的一个大问题是，其在加强在线电子商务渠道方面的投资是否会永久获得回报。在疫情最糟糕的日子里，沃尔玛的顾客蜂拥到网上订购，以获得必需品。然而，当可以选择亲自购物或网上购物时，沃尔玛购物者会怎么做还有待观察。这些数字将充分说明沃尔玛的所有努力是徒劳还是会产生持久的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep your eyes open</b></p><p><blockquote><b>睁大眼睛</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论家得宝和沃尔玛明天宣布什么，它们都可能改变整个市场。由于最近波动如此之大，来自这两家公司的令人惊讶的消息都可能对华尔街产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 2 Stocks Every Investor Should Be Watching<blockquote>每个投资者都应该关注的两只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Monday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.</li>  <li>Two key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.</li> </ul> Wall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)and&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;managed to post modest gains, and even the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周一股市涨跌互现，从当天低点反弹。</li><li>两只关键股票可能决定周二整个市场的走向。</li></ul>周一上午，华尔街从早盘的跌幅中反弹，收盘涨跌互现。The<b>道琼斯工业平均指数</b>(DJINDICES：^DJI)和<b>标普500</b>(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)成功实现小幅上涨，甚至<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）全天跌幅大幅收窄。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5b728c1f5236c709db3e0270dc3e75\" tg-width=\"1152\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：雅虎！金融。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching&nbsp;<b>Home Depot</b>(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Walmart</b>(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the&nbsp;retail stocks&nbsp; prepare to release their latest financial reports.</p><p><blockquote>财报季开始接近尾声，但仍有一些备受瞩目的股票尚未公布财报。目前市场上最重要的两只股票将于周二早些时候公布盈利结果，这就是投资者应该关注的原因<b>家得宝</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和<b>沃尔玛</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）在零售股准备发布最新财务报告之际极其接近。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b731f72fd9967ccb54241783515762a\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1199\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Feeling at home</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宾至如归的感觉</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝是周一盘中大幅波动的股票之一。这家家居装修零售商最初下跌1%，最终反弹，当天涨幅超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet what many investors are&nbsp;anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize&nbsp;on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，许多投资者焦急等待的是家得宝如何利用人们对房屋装修和维护的持续兴趣。大多数关注该股的人预计家得宝第二财季的盈利将比去年同期至少增长10%，销售额同比增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> If those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果与家得宝过去的业绩相比，这些增长率似乎有点不温不火，那么将去年的数据放在背景中很重要。与2019年同期相比，一年前的销售额飙升了23%，因为那些应对封锁措施的人为了抵御疫情而对房屋进行了大量投资。利润同比增长近25%。现在，随着这些投资取得了成果，一些房主正在继续改善，但许多人会对他们迄今为止的努力感到满意。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walmart makes its move</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔玛出手</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价周一收盘上涨略低于1%。该零售商将在周二开盘前公布第二季度财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.</p><p><blockquote>在一年前的重磅业绩之后，投资者对沃尔玛抱有合理的期望。盈利应与去年第二季度大致持平，销售额可能同比下降1%左右。同样，比较有些困难，因为与疫情爆发前的2019年同期相比，去年同期的盈利增长了近80%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a lot of&nbsp;uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like&nbsp;<b>Target</b>. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛目前存在很多不确定性。强劲的经济应该会提振消费者支出，但如果消费者决定从竞争对手那里购买更昂贵的商品，例如<b>目标</b>相反，一些人担心最近COVID-19病例的增加可能会开始侵蚀经济增长，这似乎越来越多地反映在消费者信心指标中。</blockquote></p><p> From a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，沃尔玛面临的一个大问题是，其在加强在线电子商务渠道方面的投资是否会永久获得回报。在疫情最糟糕的日子里，沃尔玛的顾客蜂拥到网上订购，以获得必需品。然而，当可以选择亲自购物或网上购物时，沃尔玛购物者会怎么做还有待观察。这些数字将充分说明沃尔玛的所有努力是徒劳还是会产生持久的优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep your eyes open</b></p><p><blockquote><b>睁大眼睛</b></blockquote></p><p> No matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论家得宝和沃尔玛明天宣布什么，它们都可能改变整个市场。由于最近波动如此之大，来自这两家公司的令人惊讶的消息都可能对华尔街产生巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/the-2-stocks-every-investor-should-be-watching/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","HD":"家得宝"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/the-2-stocks-every-investor-should-be-watching/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165381771","content_text":"Key Points\n\nMonday was a mixed day for stocks, which rebounded from their lowest levels of the day.\nTwo key stocks could determine the direction of the entire market on Tuesday.\n\nWall Street rebounded from early losses on Monday morning, finishing the day on a mixed note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)and S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC) managed to post modest gains, and even the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)dramatically reduced the size of its declines over the course of the day.\nDATA SOURCE: YAHOO! FINANCE.\nEarnings season is beginning to wind down, but there are still some high-profile stocks that have yet to report. Two of the most important stocks in the market right now will be giving their earnings results early Tuesday, and that's why investors should be watching Home Depot(NYSE:HD) and Walmart(NYSE:WMT)extremely closely as the retail stocks  prepare to release their latest financial reports.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nFeeling at home\nHome Depot was one of the stocks that saw big intraday moves on Monday. Initially falling as much as 1%, the home-improvement retailer ended up rebounding to post a better than 1% gain on the day.\nYet what many investors are anxiously awaiting is how well Home Depot can capitalize on continued interest in home renovation and maintenance. Most of those following the stock expect Home Depot to see at least a 10% rise in earnings during its fiscal second quarter from year-ago levels, with sales picking up 7% year over year.\nIf those growth rates seem a little tepid in comparison to Home Depot's past performance, it's important to put last year's numbers into context. Sales a year ago soared 23% compared to the corresponding quarter in calendar 2019, as those dealing with lockdown measures made massive investments in their homes in order to weather the pandemic. Profits were up nearly 25% year over year. Now, with those investments having borne fruit, some homeowners are continuing to make improvements, but many will be satisfied with their efforts to date.\nWalmart makes its move\nShares of Walmart finished Monday up slightly less than 1%. The retailer will announce its second-quarter financial results before the market opens on Tuesday.\nInvestors have reasonable expectations from Walmart after a blockbuster performance a year ago. Earnings should be roughly flat from the second quarter of last year, and sales are likely to ease lower by around 1% year over year. Again, comparisons are somewhat tough, as earnings jumped almost 80% in the year-ago quarter compared to the same period in calendar 2019 before the pandemic took hold.\nThere are a lot of uncertainties about Walmart right now. A strong economy should bolster consumer spending, but that sometimes translates into weakness for Walmart if consumers decide to spend up on pricier items from competitors like Target. Conversely, some fear that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases could start to eat into economic growth, and that seems increasingly reflected in consumer sentiment metrics.\nFrom a longer-term perspective, the big question facing Walmart is whether its investments in bolstering its online e-commerce channel will pay off permanently. During the worst days of the pandemic, Walmart customers flocked to online ordering in order to get necessities. When given a choice to shop in person or online, however, it remains to be seen what Walmart shoppers will do. The numbers will say a lot about whether all of Walmart's efforts have been in vain or will produce lasting advantages.\nKeep your eyes open\nNo matter what Home Depot and Walmart announce tomorrow, they're likely to move the entire market. With so much volatility lately, surprising news from either of these companies could have a dramatic impact on Wall Street.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HD":0.9,"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":815689145,"gmtCreate":1630675502787,"gmtModify":1631889383346,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815689145","repostId":"1142162122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142162122","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630675377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142162122?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142162122","media":"Benzinga","summary":"International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casin","content":"<p><div> International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>国际游戏技术公司与奥奈达国家保留地的奥奈达赌场签署了一项协议，为体育博彩提供动力。该交易的财务条款没有披露。这...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIGT Signs Sports Betting Deal With Oneida Casino<blockquote>IGT与奥奈达赌场签署体育博彩协议</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The ...</p><p><blockquote><div>国际游戏技术公司与奥奈达国家保留地的奥奈达赌场签署了一项协议，为体育博彩提供动力。该交易的财务条款没有披露。这...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/09/22794892/igt-signs-sports-betting-deal-with-oneida-casino","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142162122","content_text":"International Game Technology PLC  has signed an agreement to power sports betting with Oneida Casino on the Oneida Nation Reservation. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.\nThe agreement will allow IGT to expand its PlaySports platform footprint into Wisconsin.\nOneida Casino, located at 2020 Airport Drive in Green Bay, will leverage IGT's PlaySports solution for retail and mobile sports betting.\nThe Oneida Nation is the first tribe in Wisconsin to receive approval from the State government to operate a sports betting program at a casino.\nPrice Action: IGT shares closed higher by 1.56% at $21.49 on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IGT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812399335,"gmtCreate":1630550619927,"gmtModify":1631892732258,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!!","listText":"Nice!!","text":"Nice!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812399335","repostId":"1187594690","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187594690","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630541802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187594690?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187594690","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Support.com and Vinco Ventures, Inc. are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retai","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a> </b>and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">Vinco Ventures, Inc.</a> </b>are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">文科风险投资公司。</a></b>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ihor Dusaniwsky</b>, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable&nbsp;short squeeze in&nbsp;Support.com and Vinco Ventures&nbsp;may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基</b>S3 Partners预测分析主管周三在CNBC上表示，Support.com和Vinco Ventures可能永远不会出现大规模的空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Most people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a></b> &nbsp;and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>, which&nbsp;Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>大多数人都熟悉发生在<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>，Dusaniwsky将其称为“OG模因股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The move starts&nbsp;with \"act one,\" which entails&nbsp;relentless buying, pushing&nbsp;the stock price higher.&nbsp;This is&nbsp;followed by \"act two,\" in which&nbsp;short sellers cover&nbsp;their positions, creating&nbsp;a&nbsp;short squeeze situation,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>此举从“第一幕”开始，需要无情的买入，推高股价。杜萨尼夫斯基表示，接下来是“第二幕”，卖空者回补头寸，造成轧空局面。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们已经在BBIG和SPRT等股票中采取了行动，但不幸的是，没有足够的卖空对股价产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> There are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>他告诉CNBC，Support.com有600万股被做空，Vinco Ventures有1000万股被做空。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much&nbsp;because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示，即使卖空者补仓，也不会对股价产生太大影响，因为与每日交易量相比，这只是一小部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm not saying&nbsp;there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这些名字不会出现空头挤压，因为很可能会出现空头挤压。”</blockquote></p><p> Dusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基告诉CNBC，这次挤压不会像游戏驿站和AMC院线发生的挤压那么严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Support.com, Vinco Ventures See GameStop-, AMC-Style Short Squeeze?<blockquote>Support.com、Vinco Ventures能否看到游戏驿站、AMC式的轧空？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-02 08:16</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a> </b>and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">Vinco Ventures, Inc.</a> </b>are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBIG\">文科风险投资公司。</a></b>由于散户投资者的兴趣不断增加，上个月上涨了200%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ihor Dusaniwsky</b>, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable&nbsp;short squeeze in&nbsp;Support.com and Vinco Ventures&nbsp;may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.</p><p><blockquote><b>伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基</b>S3 Partners预测分析主管周三在CNBC上表示，Support.com和Vinco Ventures可能永远不会出现大规模的空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Most people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a></b> &nbsp;and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>, which&nbsp;Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>大多数人都熟悉发生在<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a></b>和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b>，Dusaniwsky将其称为“OG模因股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The move starts&nbsp;with \"act one,\" which entails&nbsp;relentless buying, pushing&nbsp;the stock price higher.&nbsp;This is&nbsp;followed by \"act two,\" in which&nbsp;short sellers cover&nbsp;their positions, creating&nbsp;a&nbsp;short squeeze situation,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>此举从“第一幕”开始，需要无情的买入，推高股价。杜萨尼夫斯基表示，接下来是“第二幕”，卖空者回补头寸，造成轧空局面。</blockquote></p><p> \"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们已经在BBIG和SPRT等股票中采取了行动，但不幸的是，没有足够的卖空对股价产生重大影响。”</blockquote></p><p> There are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.</p><p><blockquote>他告诉CNBC，Support.com有600万股被做空，Vinco Ventures有1000万股被做空。</blockquote></p><p> Even if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much&nbsp;because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume,&nbsp;Dusaniwsky said.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基表示，即使卖空者补仓，也不会对股价产生太大影响，因为与每日交易量相比，这只是一小部分股票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'm not saying&nbsp;there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我并不是说这些名字不会出现空头挤压，因为很可能会出现空头挤压。”</blockquote></p><p> Dusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC Entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>杜萨尼夫斯基告诉CNBC，这次挤压不会像游戏驿站和AMC院线发生的挤压那么严重。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBIG":"Vinco Ventures, Inc.","SPRT":"Support.com"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187594690","content_text":"Support.com and Vinco Ventures, Inc. are up more than 200% over the last month amid increasing retail investor interest.\nIhor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, says a sizable short squeeze in Support.com and Vinco Ventures may not ever occur, he said Wednesday on CNBC.\nMost people are familiar with the short squeezes that took place in GameStop  and AMC Entertainment, which Dusaniwsky refers to as \"OG meme stocks.\"\nThe move starts with \"act one,\" which entails relentless buying, pushing the stock price higher. This is followed by \"act two,\" in which short sellers cover their positions, creating a short squeeze situation, Dusaniwsky said.\n\"We've got the act one in stocks like BBIG and SPRT, but unfortunately there's not enough short selling to have a big effect on the stock price.\"\nThere are 6 million shares being shorted in Support.com and 10 million shares being shorted in Vinco Ventures, he told CNBC.\nEven if the short sellers cover their positions, it won't affect the share price much because it's such a small amount of shares compared to the daily trading volume, Dusaniwsky said.\n\"I'm not saying there's not going to be a short squeeze in these names, because there very well could be.\"\nDusaniwsky told CNBC the squeeze just isn't going to be nearly as significant as the ones that took place in GameStop and AMC 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883398531","repostId":"1144589302","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817410960,"gmtCreate":1630979709250,"gmtModify":1631889383340,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817410960","repostId":"2165809018","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165809018","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1630975805,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165809018?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165809018","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Even pros rarely beat the stock market\nGetty Images\nBeating the market is so difficult that you'd be","content":"<p>Even pros rarely beat the stock market</p><p><blockquote>即使是专业人士也很少跑赢股市</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c518e42fc389c9a262ce1a76a11d484e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.</p><p><blockquote>战胜市场是如此困难，你放弃是情有可原的。</blockquote></p><p> But unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.</p><p><blockquote>但与你在生活中其他地方放弃时会发生的情况不同，在投资领域，这实际上是一种精明的获胜策略。</blockquote></p><p> After more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&amp;P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.</p><p><blockquote>经过40多年对投资顾问业绩的严格审计，我了解到，从长远来看，购买并持有跟踪标普500或其他广泛指数的指数基金几乎总是领先于所有其他做得更好的尝试，例如市场时机或选择特定股票、ETF和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> It's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?</p><p><blockquote>当你想到这一点时，你会感到惊讶：生活中还有什么其他的追求，你可以通过简单地袖手旁观，无所事事来接近赢得每一场比赛？</blockquote></p><p> I'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说不可能战胜市场。我想说的是这非常困难和罕见。在一个时期跑赢市场的顾问在下一个时期也跑赢市场的情况就更罕见了。</blockquote></p><p> I am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>我不是第一个指出这一点的人。但我能为这场辩论做出贡献的是我广泛的绩效数据库，其中包含了1980年以来的真实世界回报。它令人信服地表明，当你试图击败市场时，你的胜算是多么低。</blockquote></p><p> My first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.</p><p><blockquote>我从庞大的数据库中汲取投资经验的第一步是构建一个投资通讯投资组合列表，这些投资组合自1980年以来在给定日历年的任何时候都处于业绩前10%的位置。考虑到《我的赫伯特金融文摘》多年来监测的时事通讯数量，这份表现最好的十分之一的名单相当大，包含超过1,500个投资组合。从结构上看，他们的表现排名都在90到100之间，平均为95。</blockquote></p><p> What I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.</p><p><blockquote>我想衡量的是这些时事通讯组合在接下来的一年中的表现。如果表现是一个纯粹的技能问题，那么我们预计他们在第二年的表现也会排在前十分位——平均百分位排名也是95。</blockquote></p><p> That's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不是我发现的——一点也不。这些时事通讯在第二年的平均百分位排名仅为51.5。从统计数据来看，这与如果表现纯粹是运气问题，则为50.0相似。</blockquote></p><p> I next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我对第一年绩效排名的其他九个十分位数重复了这一分析。从这张图表中可以看出，无论他们第一年的表现如何，他们在随后几年的预期排名都非常接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebfad8a8d9638e4b57cf085b425e5742\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是第一年回报率垫底10%的时事通讯。第二年的平均百分位排名为38.8——如果表现纯粹是运气问题，这远远低于你的预期。换句话说，一年最差的顾问在下一年的表现也将低于平均水平，这是一个不错的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> What these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果意味着什么：虽然投资咨询的表现不是纯粹的随机性问题，但与随机性的偏差主要发生在表现最差的人身上，而不是表现最好的人。不幸的是，这并不能帮助我们战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，不要认为你可以通过争论其他类型的顾问比时事通讯编辑更好来摆脱这些结论。至少就过去和未来表现之间的持久性（或缺乏持久性）而言，时事通讯编辑与共同基金、ETF、对冲基金和私募股权基金的经理没有什么不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of arrogance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谨防傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信这些数据是确凿的，但我并不认为它会说服你们中的许多人认输并选择指数基金。这是因为典型的投资者往往认为，战胜市场的可能性很小，适用于其他人，但不适用于他个人。</blockquote></p><p> It reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.</p><p><blockquote>这让我想起了一项著名的研究，在这项研究中，几乎所有人都表示我们是比平均水平更好的司机。</blockquote></p><p> This arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.</p><p><blockquote>这种傲慢显然对我们的道路和高速公路产生了危险的后果。但这在投资领域也是危险的，因为它会导致投资者承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.</p><p><blockquote>这就造成了一个螺旋式下降：当傲慢的投资者开始输给市场时（这迟早不可避免地会发生），他会采取风险更大的策略来弥补之前的损失。这反过来又不可避免地导致他遭受更大的损失。循环重复。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到社交媒体时，傲慢的诱惑尤其明显。心理学家发现，年轻投资者在被监视时远比独自操作时更倾向于追求高风险策略。这有助于解释以投资为重点的社交媒体平台上经常表现出的虚张声势。</blockquote></p><p> Buying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.</p><p><blockquote>购买并持有指数基金很无聊。追随者很少首先被社交媒体吸引，即使他们被吸引，他们也很少发布他们继续持有多年来的相同投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of this trick, too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>也要小心这招</b></blockquote></p><p> A similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.</p><p><blockquote>类似的动态导致那些经常使用社交媒体的人吹嘘他们壮观的赢家，而忽视他们的输家。他们经常这样做的一种方式是将短期交易的回报按年计算，然后吹嘘这个数字。想象一下，一只股票在一周内从10美元涨到11美元。就其本身而言，这似乎并不特别引人注目。然而，按年化计算，这相当于超过14,000%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Readers of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.</p><p><blockquote>这些社交媒体吹嘘的读者最初必须相信他们是唯一一个既有输赢交易的人。直到后来，他们才发现社交媒体平台的潜规则：向其他投资者询问他们的输家是一种糟糕的形式，就像在一轮高尔夫球后询问自吹自擂的高尔夫球手是否真的打出了标准杆是一种糟糕的礼仪一样。</blockquote></p><p> Humility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"</p><p><blockquote>谦逊是投资领域的一种美德。我们最好记住苏格拉底的名言：“我是世上最聪明的人，因为我知道一件事，那就是我什么都不知道。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors love to boast about their great stock picks, but beware of those who use fancy math to calculate their gains<blockquote>投资者喜欢吹嘘他们出色的股票选择，但要小心那些使用花哨的数学来计算收益的人</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 08:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Even pros rarely beat the stock market</p><p><blockquote>即使是专业人士也很少跑赢股市</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c518e42fc389c9a262ce1a76a11d484e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Beating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.</p><p><blockquote>战胜市场是如此困难，你放弃是情有可原的。</blockquote></p><p> But unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.</p><p><blockquote>但与你在生活中其他地方放弃时会发生的情况不同，在投资领域，这实际上是一种精明的获胜策略。</blockquote></p><p> After more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&amp;P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.</p><p><blockquote>经过40多年对投资顾问业绩的严格审计，我了解到，从长远来看，购买并持有跟踪标普500或其他广泛指数的指数基金几乎总是领先于所有其他做得更好的尝试，例如市场时机或选择特定股票、ETF和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> It's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?</p><p><blockquote>当你想到这一点时，你会感到惊讶：生活中还有什么其他的追求，你可以通过简单地袖手旁观，无所事事来接近赢得每一场比赛？</blockquote></p><p> I'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说不可能战胜市场。我想说的是这非常困难和罕见。在一个时期跑赢市场的顾问在下一个时期也跑赢市场的情况就更罕见了。</blockquote></p><p> I am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>我不是第一个指出这一点的人。但我能为这场辩论做出贡献的是我广泛的绩效数据库，其中包含了1980年以来的真实世界回报。它令人信服地表明，当你试图击败市场时，你的胜算是多么低。</blockquote></p><p> My first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.</p><p><blockquote>我从庞大的数据库中汲取投资经验的第一步是构建一个投资通讯投资组合列表，这些投资组合自1980年以来在给定日历年的任何时候都处于业绩前10%的位置。考虑到《我的赫伯特金融文摘》多年来监测的时事通讯数量，这份表现最好的十分之一的名单相当大，包含超过1,500个投资组合。从结构上看，他们的表现排名都在90到100之间，平均为95。</blockquote></p><p> What I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.</p><p><blockquote>我想衡量的是这些时事通讯组合在接下来的一年中的表现。如果表现是一个纯粹的技能问题，那么我们预计他们在第二年的表现也会排在前十分位——平均百分位排名也是95。</blockquote></p><p> That's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这不是我发现的——一点也不。这些时事通讯在第二年的平均百分位排名仅为51.5。从统计数据来看，这与如果表现纯粹是运气问题，则为50.0相似。</blockquote></p><p> I next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我对第一年绩效排名的其他九个十分位数重复了这一分析。从这张图表中可以看出，无论他们第一年的表现如何，他们在随后几年的预期排名都非常接近50%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebfad8a8d9638e4b57cf085b425e5742\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.</p><p><blockquote>唯一的例外是第一年回报率垫底10%的时事通讯。第二年的平均百分位排名为38.8——如果表现纯粹是运气问题，这远远低于你的预期。换句话说，一年最差的顾问在下一年的表现也将低于平均水平，这是一个不错的赌注。</blockquote></p><p> What these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果意味着什么：虽然投资咨询的表现不是纯粹的随机性问题，但与随机性的偏差主要发生在表现最差的人身上，而不是表现最好的人。不幸的是，这并不能帮助我们战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> By the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，不要认为你可以通过争论其他类型的顾问比时事通讯编辑更好来摆脱这些结论。至少就过去和未来表现之间的持久性（或缺乏持久性）而言，时事通讯编辑与共同基金、ETF、对冲基金和私募股权基金的经理没有什么不同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of arrogance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>谨防傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> While I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我相信这些数据是确凿的，但我并不认为它会说服你们中的许多人认输并选择指数基金。这是因为典型的投资者往往认为，战胜市场的可能性很小，适用于其他人，但不适用于他个人。</blockquote></p><p> It reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.</p><p><blockquote>这让我想起了一项著名的研究，在这项研究中，几乎所有人都表示我们是比平均水平更好的司机。</blockquote></p><p> This arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.</p><p><blockquote>这种傲慢显然对我们的道路和高速公路产生了危险的后果。但这在投资领域也是危险的，因为它会导致投资者承担越来越大的风险。</blockquote></p><p> That creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.</p><p><blockquote>这就造成了一个螺旋式下降：当傲慢的投资者开始输给市场时（这迟早不可避免地会发生），他会采取风险更大的策略来弥补之前的损失。这反过来又不可避免地导致他遭受更大的损失。循环重复。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.</p><p><blockquote>当涉及到社交媒体时，傲慢的诱惑尤其明显。心理学家发现，年轻投资者在被监视时远比独自操作时更倾向于追求高风险策略。这有助于解释以投资为重点的社交媒体平台上经常表现出的虚张声势。</blockquote></p><p> Buying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.</p><p><blockquote>购买并持有指数基金很无聊。追随者很少首先被社交媒体吸引，即使他们被吸引，他们也很少发布他们继续持有多年来的相同投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beware of this trick, too</b></p><p><blockquote><b>也要小心这招</b></blockquote></p><p> A similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.</p><p><blockquote>类似的动态导致那些经常使用社交媒体的人吹嘘他们壮观的赢家，而忽视他们的输家。他们经常这样做的一种方式是将短期交易的回报按年计算，然后吹嘘这个数字。想象一下，一只股票在一周内从10美元涨到11美元。就其本身而言，这似乎并不特别引人注目。然而，按年化计算，这相当于超过14,000%的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Readers of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.</p><p><blockquote>这些社交媒体吹嘘的读者最初必须相信他们是唯一一个既有输赢交易的人。直到后来，他们才发现社交媒体平台的潜规则：向其他投资者询问他们的输家是一种糟糕的形式，就像在一轮高尔夫球后询问自吹自擂的高尔夫球手是否真的打出了标准杆是一种糟糕的礼仪一样。</blockquote></p><p> Humility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"</p><p><blockquote>谦逊是投资领域的一种美德。我们最好记住苏格拉底的名言：“我是世上最聪明的人，因为我知道一件事，那就是我什么都不知道。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-love-to-boast-about-their-great-stock-picks-but-beware-of-those-who-use-fancy-math-to-calculate-their-gains-11630784143?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-love-to-boast-about-their-great-stock-picks-but-beware-of-those-who-use-fancy-math-to-calculate-their-gains-11630784143?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2165809018","content_text":"Even pros rarely beat the stock market\nGetty Images\nBeating the market is so difficult that you'd be excused for giving up.\nBut unlike what happens when you give up elsewhere in life, in the investment arena it's actually a shrewd strategy for winning.\nAfter more than 40 years of rigorously auditing the performance of investment advisers, I have learned that over the long term, buying and holding an index fund that tracks the S&P 500 or other broad index nearly always comes out ahead of all other attempts to do better, such as market timing or picking particular stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.\nIt's amazing when you think about it: What other pursuit in life is there in which you can come close to winning every race by simply sitting on your hands and doing nothing?\nI'm not saying it's impossible to beat the market. What I am saying is that it's very difficult and rare. And it's even rarer for an adviser who beats the market in one period to do so in the successive period as well.\nI am not the first person to point this out. But what I can contribute to the debate is my extensive performance database that contains real-world returns back to 1980. It compellingly shows how impossibly low your odds are of winning when trying to beat the market.\nMy first step in drawing investment lessons from my huge database was to construct a list of investment newsletter portfolios that at any point since 1980 were in the top 10% for performance in a given calendar year. Given how many newsletters my Hulbert Financial Digest has monitored over the years, this list of top decile performers was sizable, containing more than 1,500 portfolios. By construction, the percentiles of their performance rank all fell between 90 and 100, and averaged 95.\nWhat I wanted to measure was how these newsletter portfolios performed in the immediately succeeding year. If performance were a matter of pure skill, then we'd expect that they would have been in the top decile for performance in that second year as well--with an average percentile rank that also was 95.\nThat's not what I found, however--not by a long shot. These newsletters' average percentile rank in that second year was just 51.5. That is statistically similar to the 50.0 it would have been if performance were a matter of pure luck.\nI next repeated this analysis for each of the other nine deciles for initial-year performance rank. As you can see from this chart, their expected ranks in the successive years were very close to the 50 percentile, regardless of their performance in the initial year.\n\nThe only exception came for newsletters in the bottom 10% for first-year return. The average second-year percentile ranking was 38.8--significantly below what you'd expect if performance were a matter of pure luck. In other words, it's a decent bet that one year's worst adviser will have a below-average performance in the subsequent year too.\nWhat these results mean: While investment advisory performance is not a matter of pure randomness, the deviations from randomness primarily occur among the worst performers--not the best. Unfortunately that doesn't help us to beat the market.\nBy the way, don't think that you can wriggle out from these conclusions by arguing that other kinds of advisers are better than newsletter editors. At least in regards to the persistence (or lack thereof) between past and future performance, newsletter editors are no different than managers of mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds and private-equity funds.\nBeware of arrogance\nWhile I believe the data are conclusive, I'm not holding my breath that it will persuade many of you to throw in the towel and go with an index fund. That's because the typical investor all too often believes that the poor odds of beating the market apply to everyone else but not to him individually.\nIt reminds me of the famous study in which almost all of us indicate we're better-than-average drivers.\nThis arrogance has obviously dangerous consequences on our roads and highways. But it's dangerous in the investment arena as well because it leads investors into incurring greater and greater risks.\nThat creates a downward spiral: When the arrogant investor starts losing to the market, which inevitably happens sooner or later, he pursues an even riskier strategy to make up for his prior loss. That in turn invariably leads him to suffer even greater losses. And the cycle repeats.\nThe temptation of arrogance is particularly evident when it comes to social media. Psychologists have found that younger investors are far more inclined to pursue risky strategies when they are being watched than when operating alone. This helps to explain the bravado that so frequently is exhibited on investment-focused social media platforms.\nBuying and holding an index fund is boring. Adherents are rarely drawn to social media in the first place, and even if they are, they rarely post that they are continuing to hold the same investment they've had for years.\nBeware of this trick, too\nA similar dynamic leads those who frequent social media to brag about their spectacular winners while ignoring their losers. One frequent way they do it is to annualize their returns from a short-term trade and then boast about that figure. Imagine a stock that goes from $10 to $11 in a week's time. In itself, that doesn't seem particularly remarkable. On an annualized basis, however, that is equivalent to a gain of more than 14,000%.\nReaders of these social media boasts initially must believe they are the only ones with a mixture of both winning and losing trades. Only later do they discover the unspoken rules of social media platforms: it's bad form to ask fellow investors about their losers, just like it's poor etiquette after a round of golf to ask the boastful golfer whether he actually beat par.\nHumility is a virtue in the investment area. We would do well to remember Socrates' famous line: \"I am the wisest man alive, for I know one thing, and that is that I know nothing.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815680435,"gmtCreate":1630675467127,"gmtModify":1631889383350,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news!","listText":"Good news!","text":"Good news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815680435","repostId":"1136677026","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136677026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630670958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136677026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 20:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136677026","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures held near record highs on Friday as all attention shifted to the highly ant","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures held near record highs on Friday as all attention shifted to the highly anticipated jobs report that could feed into the Federal Reserve’s plans to taper its massive pandemic-era stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五保持在历史高位附近，所有注意力都转移到备受期待的就业报告上，该报告可能会为美联储缩减大流行时期大规模刺激计划提供信息。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 46 points, or 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.75 points, or 0.17%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨46点，涨幅0.13%，标普500 e-mini上涨7.75点，涨幅0.17%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨25.75点，涨幅0.17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5654a93189551099412c1148187624d6\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq have scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have grown cautious recently as the Fed issued hawkish signals while data pointed to a slowdown in a broader economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的企业盈利支撑下，标普500和纳斯达克在过去几周攀升至历史新高，但投资者最近变得谨慎，因为美联储发出鹰派信号，而数据显示更广泛的经济复苏放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场仍然是美联储的关键试金石，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上暗示，实现充分就业是美联储开始削减资产购买的先决条件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> – The video streaming service’s stock remains on watch today after rising in 14 of the past 15 sessions and hitting an all-time high in Thursday’s session.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>-该视频流媒体服务的股价在过去15个交易日中有14个交易日上涨并在周四盘中创下历史新高后，今天仍受到关注。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">MongoDB Inc.</a> – MongoDB lost 24 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 39 cent loss that analysts anticipated. The database platform company also reported better-than-expected revenue and gave upbeat current-quarter revenue guidance. Shares soared 13.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">MongoDB公司。</a>-MongoDB最近一个季度每股亏损24美分，低于分析师预期的39美分。该数据库平台公司还报告了好于预期的收入，并给出了乐观的本季度收入指引。盘前股价飙升13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PD\">PagerDuty, Inc.</a> – PagerDuty shares surged 14.5% in the premarket, after reporting a loss and revenue that beat consensus. The provider of digital operations management solutions reported an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share for its latest quarter, 2 cents narrower than expected, while issuing a strong current-quarter revenue outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PD\">寻呼机公司。</a>–PagerDuty公布亏损和收入超出市场预期后，股价在盘前飙升14.5%。这家数字运营管理解决方案提供商报告称，最近一个季度调整后每股亏损13美分，比预期收窄2美分，同时发布了强劲的本季度收入前景。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">Hewlett Packard Enterprise</a> – Hewlett Packard Enterprise came in 5 cents ahead of estimates with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share, while revenue was essentially in line with analyst forecasts. The company’s business continues to get a boost from the pandemic-driven move to digital operations.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与</a>-慧与调整后季度收益为每股47美分，比预期高出5美分，而营收基本符合分析师预测。该公司的业务继续从大流行推动的数字化运营转变中获得提振。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a> – The disk drive maker’s shares added 1.9% in the premarket, following a published report in Japan saying memory chip maker Kioxia favors a planned initial public offering over a possible merger with Western Digital. The two sides had reportedly been in advanced talks to merge in a deal worth $20 billion or more.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>-这家磁盘驱动器制造商的股价在盘前上涨1.9%，此前日本发布的一份报告称，存储芯片制造商铠侠更倾向于计划中的首次公开募股，而不是可能与西部数据合并。据报道，双方一直在就价值200亿美元或更多的交易进行深入谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">Docusign</a> – DocuSign beat estimates by 7 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share and revenue that topped Street forecasts. The provider of electronic signature technology also raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, subscription revenue and billings.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">Docusign</a>-DocuSign超出预期7美分，调整后季度收益为每股47美分，收入超出华尔街预期。这家电子签名技术提供商还提高了总收入、订阅收入和账单的全年指引。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a> – The chip maker reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $6.96 per share, 8 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above consensus. Broadcom also issued an upbeat current-quarter outlook as it continues to see strong demand in the 5G mobile market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>-这家芯片制造商公布的调整后季度收益为每股6.96美元，比预期高出8美分，营收略高于市场预期。博通还发布了乐观的本季度展望，因为它继续看到5G移动市场的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> – The sports programming streaming service’s shares jumped 4.5% in premarket trading after it received approval from Arizona regulators to offer mobile wagering in the state. Arizona is the second state to allow fuboTV to offer such betting, following a recent approval in Iowa.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富波电视公司。</a>–这家体育节目流媒体服务公司获得亚利桑那州监管机构批准在该州提供移动博彩服务后，其股价在盘前交易中上涨4.5%。继爱荷华州最近批准后，亚利桑那州是第二个允许fuboTV提供此类博彩的州。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a> – The cannabis producer’s shares were upgraded to “hold” from “underperform” at Jefferies, which cited a number of factors including valuation. The stock added 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将这家大麻生产商的股票评级从“表现不佳”上调至“持有”，该评级引用了包括估值在内的多种因素。该股在盘前交易中上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a> – The business analytics company’s stock rose 3.1% in the premarket, as it continues to closely track movements in bitcoin. MicroStrategy has more than $5 billion in bitcoin on its balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">微观策略</a>-这家商业分析公司的股价在盘前上涨3.1%，因为它继续密切跟踪比特币的动向。MicroStrategy的资产负债表上有超过50亿美元的比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 20:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures held near record highs on Friday as all attention shifted to the highly anticipated jobs report that could feed into the Federal Reserve’s plans to taper its massive pandemic-era stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周五保持在历史高位附近，所有注意力都转移到备受期待的就业报告上，该报告可能会为美联储缩减大流行时期大规模刺激计划提供信息。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 46 points, or 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.75 points, or 0.17%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨46点，涨幅0.13%，标普500 e-mini上涨7.75点，涨幅0.17%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨25.75点，涨幅0.17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5654a93189551099412c1148187624d6\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq have scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have grown cautious recently as the Fed issued hawkish signals while data pointed to a slowdown in a broader economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的企业盈利支撑下，标普500和纳斯达克在过去几周攀升至历史新高，但投资者最近变得谨慎，因为美联储发出鹰派信号，而数据显示更广泛的经济复苏放缓。</blockquote></p><p> The labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力市场仍然是美联储的关键试金石，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上暗示，实现充分就业是美联储开始削减资产购买的先决条件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a> – The video streaming service’s stock remains on watch today after rising in 14 of the past 15 sessions and hitting an all-time high in Thursday’s session.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>-该视频流媒体服务的股价在过去15个交易日中有14个交易日上涨并在周四盘中创下历史新高后，今天仍受到关注。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">MongoDB Inc.</a> – MongoDB lost 24 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 39 cent loss that analysts anticipated. The database platform company also reported better-than-expected revenue and gave upbeat current-quarter revenue guidance. Shares soared 13.5% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">MongoDB公司。</a>-MongoDB最近一个季度每股亏损24美分，低于分析师预期的39美分。该数据库平台公司还报告了好于预期的收入，并给出了乐观的本季度收入指引。盘前股价飙升13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PD\">PagerDuty, Inc.</a> – PagerDuty shares surged 14.5% in the premarket, after reporting a loss and revenue that beat consensus. The provider of digital operations management solutions reported an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share for its latest quarter, 2 cents narrower than expected, while issuing a strong current-quarter revenue outlook.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PD\">寻呼机公司。</a>–PagerDuty公布亏损和收入超出市场预期后，股价在盘前飙升14.5%。这家数字运营管理解决方案提供商报告称，最近一个季度调整后每股亏损13美分，比预期收窄2美分，同时发布了强劲的本季度收入前景。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">Hewlett Packard Enterprise</a> – Hewlett Packard Enterprise came in 5 cents ahead of estimates with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share, while revenue was essentially in line with analyst forecasts. The company’s business continues to get a boost from the pandemic-driven move to digital operations.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPE\">慧与</a>-慧与调整后季度收益为每股47美分，比预期高出5美分，而营收基本符合分析师预测。该公司的业务继续从大流行推动的数字化运营转变中获得提振。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">Western Digital</a> – The disk drive maker’s shares added 1.9% in the premarket, following a published report in Japan saying memory chip maker Kioxia favors a planned initial public offering over a possible merger with Western Digital. The two sides had reportedly been in advanced talks to merge in a deal worth $20 billion or more.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>-这家磁盘驱动器制造商的股价在盘前上涨1.9%，此前日本发布的一份报告称，存储芯片制造商铠侠更倾向于计划中的首次公开募股，而不是可能与西部数据合并。据报道，双方一直在就价值200亿美元或更多的交易进行深入谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">Docusign</a> – DocuSign beat estimates by 7 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share and revenue that topped Street forecasts. The provider of electronic signature technology also raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, subscription revenue and billings.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">Docusign</a>-DocuSign超出预期7美分，调整后季度收益为每股47美分，收入超出华尔街预期。这家电子签名技术提供商还提高了总收入、订阅收入和账单的全年指引。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a> – The chip maker reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $6.96 per share, 8 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above consensus. Broadcom also issued an upbeat current-quarter outlook as it continues to see strong demand in the 5G mobile market.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>-这家芯片制造商公布的调整后季度收益为每股6.96美元，比预期高出8美分，营收略高于市场预期。博通还发布了乐观的本季度展望，因为它继续看到5G移动市场的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">fuboTV Inc.</a> – The sports programming streaming service’s shares jumped 4.5% in premarket trading after it received approval from Arizona regulators to offer mobile wagering in the state. Arizona is the second state to allow fuboTV to offer such betting, following a recent approval in Iowa.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">富波电视公司。</a>–这家体育节目流媒体服务公司获得亚利桑那州监管机构批准在该州提供移动博彩服务后，其股价在盘前交易中上涨4.5%。继爱荷华州最近批准后，亚利桑那州是第二个允许fuboTV提供此类博彩的州。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">Aurora Cannabis Inc</a> – The cannabis producer’s shares were upgraded to “hold” from “underperform” at Jefferies, which cited a number of factors including valuation. The stock added 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">奥罗拉大麻公司</a>-杰富瑞(Jefferies)将这家大麻生产商的股票评级从“表现不佳”上调至“持有”，该评级引用了包括估值在内的多种因素。该股在盘前交易中上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a> – The business analytics company’s stock rose 3.1% in the premarket, as it continues to closely track movements in bitcoin. MicroStrategy has more than $5 billion in bitcoin on its balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">微观策略</a>-这家商业分析公司的股价在盘前上涨3.1%，因为它继续密切跟踪比特币的动向。MicroStrategy的资产负债表上有超过50亿美元的比特币。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136677026","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures held near record highs on Friday as all attention shifted to the highly anticipated jobs report that could feed into the Federal Reserve’s plans to taper its massive pandemic-era stimulus.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 46 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 7.75 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 25.75 points, or 0.17%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have scaled all-time highs over the past few weeks on support from robust corporate earnings, but investors have grown cautious recently as the Fed issued hawkish signals while data pointed to a slowdown in a broader economic recovery.\nThe labor market remains the key touchstone for the Fed, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week that reaching full employment was a pre-requisite for the central bank to start paring back its asset purchases.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nNetflix – The video streaming service’s stock remains on watch today after rising in 14 of the past 15 sessions and hitting an all-time high in Thursday’s session.\nMongoDB Inc. – MongoDB lost 24 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 39 cent loss that analysts anticipated. The database platform company also reported better-than-expected revenue and gave upbeat current-quarter revenue guidance. Shares soared 13.5% in premarket action.\nPagerDuty, Inc. – PagerDuty shares surged 14.5% in the premarket, after reporting a loss and revenue that beat consensus. The provider of digital operations management solutions reported an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share for its latest quarter, 2 cents narrower than expected, while issuing a strong current-quarter revenue outlook.\nHewlett Packard Enterprise – Hewlett Packard Enterprise came in 5 cents ahead of estimates with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share, while revenue was essentially in line with analyst forecasts. The company’s business continues to get a boost from the pandemic-driven move to digital operations.\nWestern Digital – The disk drive maker’s shares added 1.9% in the premarket, following a published report in Japan saying memory chip maker Kioxia favors a planned initial public offering over a possible merger with Western Digital. The two sides had reportedly been in advanced talks to merge in a deal worth $20 billion or more.\nDocusign – DocuSign beat estimates by 7 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 47 cents per share and revenue that topped Street forecasts. The provider of electronic signature technology also raised its full-year guidance for total revenue, subscription revenue and billings.\nBroadcom – The chip maker reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $6.96 per share, 8 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above consensus. Broadcom also issued an upbeat current-quarter outlook as it continues to see strong demand in the 5G mobile market.\nfuboTV Inc. – The sports programming streaming service’s shares jumped 4.5% in premarket trading after it received approval from Arizona regulators to offer mobile wagering in the state. Arizona is the second state to allow fuboTV to offer such betting, following a recent approval in Iowa.\nAurora Cannabis Inc – The cannabis producer’s shares were upgraded to “hold” from “underperform” at Jefferies, which cited a number of factors including valuation. The stock added 1% in premarket trading.\nMicroStrategy – The business analytics company’s stock rose 3.1% in the premarket, as it continues to closely track movements in bitcoin. MicroStrategy has more than $5 billion in bitcoin on its balance sheet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837536611,"gmtCreate":1629899097833,"gmtModify":1631892732264,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837536611","repostId":"2162059068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836665212,"gmtCreate":1629477464836,"gmtModify":1631892732275,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836665212","repostId":"2160271025","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814725048,"gmtCreate":1630886837384,"gmtModify":1631889383336,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814725048","repostId":"2164872049","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164872049","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630679468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164872049?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164872049","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows.","content":"<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZooming In On Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results<blockquote>放大Zoom可靠但不够好的结果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Zoom</b>&nbsp;<b>Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第一个季度的收入达到了10亿美元，但<b>Zoom</b> <b>视频通信</b>（纳斯达克：ZM）周一下跌近11%，此前该公司公布了高于预期的全年盈利预测。收入指引完全符合预期，但销售增长率跌至新低。简单来说，视频平台一直在持续增长，但没有达到分析师预期的过于乐观的速度。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Q2 Figures</h4> For the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter &nbsp;and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.</p><p><blockquote><h4>第二季度数据</h4>根据Refinitiv的数据，截至7月31日的季度，该季度收入同比增长54%，首次突破10亿美元，达到10.2亿美元，也超过了分析师预期的9.91亿美元。调整后净利润较去年同期增长48%，达到每股1.36美元，也超过Refinitiv预期的1.16美元。自由现金流增长22%，达到4.55亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Gross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.</p><p><blockquote>毛利率从上一季度的72.3%提高至74.4%。毛利率受益于新的数据中心容量以及夏季使用率的降低，部分原因是学校放假。Zoom Phone基于云的电话服务从三个月前的150万个扩展到200万个座位。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Outlook</h4> During the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.</p><p><blockquote><h4>世界观</h4>本季度，Zoom宣布将收购云联络中心软件提供商Five9，并为高级在线会议提供Zoom Events。这家视频通信公司还投资了活动软件制造商Cvent，该公司寻求通过SPAC上市。</blockquote></p><p> As for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>至于本季度，Zoom预计增长31%。调整后每股收益预计在1.07美元至1.08美元之间，营收为10.15亿美元至10.20亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于整个财年，由于冠状病毒病例数增加以及许多公司推迟了重新开放办事处的计划，该公司提高了预测。预计调整后每股收益在4.75美元至4.79美元之间，营收在40.05亿美元至40.15亿美元之间。此前对调整后收益的预期为4.56美元至4.61美元，营收为39.8亿美元至39.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该预测高于分析师对调整后每股收益和营收的普遍预期，分别为4.67美元和40.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.</p><p><blockquote>该指南假设直销和渠道业务将强劲增长，但由于小客户和消费者遇到的挑战，在线业务也将疲软。随着学生复课，毛利率预计将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>The Verdict</h4> By most standards,&nbsp;Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote><h4>判决</h4>按照大多数标准，Zoom的业务指标看起来很稳健，有2,278名客户为其年收入贡献了10万美元或更多。这是去年大客户数量的两倍多。拥有10名以上员工的客户突破50万大关，同比增长36%。在过去12个月的基础上，美元净增长率保持在130%以上。但对于华尔街来说，其业绩还不够好，华尔街不高兴看到该公司要求第三季度收入与第二季度大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文不是新闻稿，由IAMNewswire的经过验证的独立记者撰写。在任何时候都不应将其解释为投资建议，请阅读完整的披露。IAM Newswire在上述公司中没有任何职位。新闻稿-如果您正在寻找完整的新闻稿分发，请联系：press@iamnewswire.com贡献者-IAM Newswire接受推介。如果您有兴趣成为IAM记者，请联系：contributors@iamnewswire.com</i></blockquote></p><p> The post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.</p><p><blockquote>放大Zoom稳健但不够好的结果的帖子首先出现在IAM新闻专线上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164872049","content_text":"Despite logging its first billion-dollar quarter, the stock of Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) fell almost 11% on Monday after the company posted a higher-than-expected earnings forecast for the full year. The revenue guidance exactly met expectations, but sales-growth rates fall to new lows. In simple words, the video platform has continued to grow, but not at the overly optimistic pace that analysts expected.\nQ2 Figures\nFor the quarter that ended on July 31st, revenue increased by 54% YoY in the quarter  and topping $1 billion for the first time as it amounted to $1.02 billion, also exceeding Refinitiv expectations of $991.0 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Adjusted net income came in 48% higher from the year-ago quarter, amounting to $1.36 per share, also exceeding $1.16 expected by Refinitiv. Free cash flow improved 22% as it improved to $455 million.\nGross margin improved from 72.3% in the previous quarter to 74.4%. Gross margin benefited from new data center capacity as well as lower usage during the summer, thanks in part to the school break. The Zoom Phone cloud-based phone service expanded from 1.5 million three months earlier to 2 million seats.\nOutlook\nDuring the quarter, Zoom announced it will acquire cloud contact-center software provider Five9, along with the availability of Zoom Events for premium online meetings. The video communications company also invested in event software maker Cvent that sought to go public through a SPAC.\nAs for the undergoing quarter, Zoom is guiding to 31% growth. Adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range between $1.07 to $1.08 with $1.015 billion to $1.020 billion in revenue.\nFor the full fiscal year, it improved its forecast as coronavirus case counts have increased and many companies delayed plans to reopen offices. Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range between $4.75 to $4.79 per share with the revenue range being within $4.005 billion and $4.015 billion in revenue. Previous estimates for adjusted earnings were $4.56 to $4.61 and $3.98 billion to $3.99 billion for revenue.\nThe forecast is ahead of analysts' consensus estimates for both adjusted earnings per share and revenue, being $4.67 and $4.01 billion, respectively.\nThe guidance assumes strong growth for the direct and channel businesses, but also a weakness in the online business because of challenges encountered by smaller customers and consumers. Gross margin is expected to expand with students resuming classes.\nThe Verdict\nBy most standards, Zoom's business metrics look solid with 2,278 customers contributing $100,000 or more to its annual revenue. This is well over double its last year's big-client count. Customers with more than 10 employees vaulted over the half-million mark, up 36% YoY. On a trailing 12-month basis, net dollar expansion rates remained above 130%. But its results just weren't good enough for Wall Street who was not pleased to see the company calling for roughly flat third-quarter revenue compared to the second quarter.\nThis article is not a press release and is contributed by a verified independent journalist for IAMNewswire. It should not be construed as investment advice at any time please read the full disclosure. IAM Newswire does not hold any position in the mentioned companies. Press Releases – If you are looking for full Press release distribution contact: press@iamnewswire.com Contributors – IAM Newswire accepts pitches. If you're interested in becoming an IAM journalist contact: contributors@iamnewswire.com\nThe post Zooming in on Zoom's Solid But Not Good Enough Results appeared first on IAM Newswire.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816500599,"gmtCreate":1630505837211,"gmtModify":1631892732260,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my post&nbsp;","listText":"Like my post&nbsp;","text":"Like my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816500599","repostId":"1150578459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150578459","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630498127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150578459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 20:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150578459","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&P 500 on course to a new opening high, as i","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&amp;P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周三上涨，推动标普500有望创下开盘新高，投资者等待私人就业数据和工厂活动指标，以寻找美联储政策收紧计划的暗示。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨111点，涨幅0.31%，标普500 e-mini上涨15.5点，涨幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨40.5点，涨幅0.26%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c9a5df62064a2a342e83495168d97a9\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&amp;P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街主要股指近期屡创新高，标普500 8月份强劲上涨2.9%，原因是投资者摆脱了新增感染病例增加的风险，并希望美联储逐步取消刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>-这家食品生产商最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，调整后每股收益为55美分，比市场预期高出7美分。该公司发布的2022财年调整后每股收益预期为2.75-2.85美元，而市场普遍预期为2.87美元，原因是该公司应对投入成本上升和劳动力市场受限的问题。该股最初在盘前交易中上涨超过1%，但随后涨幅有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH Corp</a> – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH公司</a>-PVH报告调整后季度收益为每股2.72美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.20美元，而该服装制造商的收入也超出了预期。Tommy Hilfiger和Calvin Klein品牌背后的公司也上调了全年收入预期。PVH股价盘前飙升7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">Ambarella</a> – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">安巴雷拉</a>-Ambarella在盘前交易中上涨9.1%，比预期高出10美分，调整后季度利润为每股35美分。收入也超出了分析师的预期。这家汽车和相机芯片制造商表示，需求很高，本季度收入可能达到5年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.</a> – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike控股公司。</a>-CrowdStrike调整后季度收益为每股11美分，超出华尔街预期2美分，而收入也高于预期。这家网络安全公司还上调了全年预期，但股价在盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Royal Philips NV</a> – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">皇家飞利浦公司</a>-飞利浦在FDA批准其更换消音材料的提案后，获得了FDA的许可，开始维修和更换其DreamStation呼吸设备。这家荷兰科技公司在6月份召回了多达400万台设备，以解决消音泡沫的潜在毒性问题。飞利浦盘前上涨2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a> – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a>-在分析师两次积极提及后，这家太阳能公司的股价在盘前上涨3.6%。它被添加到摩根大通的美国分析师焦点名单中，也是沃尔夫研究公司新报道中被评为“市场跑赢大盘”的清洁能源股票之一。沃尔夫表示，清洁能源转型是一个长期趋势，将远远超过当前的经济周期。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>-这家中国电动汽车制造商以供应链限制为由下调了第三季度交付预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">Intuit</a> – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">直觉</a>–据接受彭博社采访的知情人士透露，Intuit正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购电子邮件营销公司Mailchimp。这样的交易将增加这家个人理财软件公司为小型企业提供的工具，其中包括QuickBooks和Credit Karma。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>–西南航空飞行员正在起诉该航空公司，指控该航空公司在Covid-19大流行期间对工作条件进行了改变。飞行员认为这些变化应该与工会进行谈判，而该公司表示不需要进行此类谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a> – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>-根据地面运输委员会的裁决，加拿大国民航空将不被允许使用临时投票信托作为其300亿美元收购堪萨斯城南方航空(KSU)交易的一部分。这可能会给完成交易带来重大障碍，也是加拿大太平洋铁路公司（CP）的另一个机会，该公司也提出收购堪萨斯城南方铁路公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">Sprouts Farmers</a> – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">豆芽农民</a>-Sprouts表示，其首席财务官Denise Paulonis将离开这家天然食品连锁超市，董事会成员Lawrence Molloy将于9月25日接替Paulonis。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 20:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&amp;P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周三上涨，推动标普500有望创下开盘新高，投资者等待私人就业数据和工厂活动指标，以寻找美联储政策收紧计划的暗示。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:05，道指e-mini上涨111点，涨幅0.31%，标普500 e-mini上涨15.5点，涨幅0.34%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨40.5点，涨幅0.26%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c9a5df62064a2a342e83495168d97a9\" tg-width=\"678\" tg-height=\"226\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:05</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&amp;P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街主要股指近期屡创新高，标普500 8月份强劲上涨2.9%，原因是投资者摆脱了新增感染病例增加的风险，并希望美联储逐步取消刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">Campbell Soup</a> – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPB\">金宝汤</a>-这家食品生产商最近一个季度的营收和利润超出了预期，调整后每股收益为55美分，比市场预期高出7美分。该公司发布的2022财年调整后每股收益预期为2.75-2.85美元，而市场普遍预期为2.87美元，原因是该公司应对投入成本上升和劳动力市场受限的问题。该股最初在盘前交易中上涨超过1%，但随后涨幅有所回落。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH Corp</a> – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PVH\">PVH公司</a>-PVH报告调整后季度收益为每股2.72美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.20美元，而该服装制造商的收入也超出了预期。Tommy Hilfiger和Calvin Klein品牌背后的公司也上调了全年收入预期。PVH股价盘前飙升7.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">Ambarella</a> – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMBA\">安巴雷拉</a>-Ambarella在盘前交易中上涨9.1%，比预期高出10美分，调整后季度利润为每股35美分。收入也超出了分析师的预期。这家汽车和相机芯片制造商表示，需求很高，本季度收入可能达到5年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.</a> – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike控股公司。</a>-CrowdStrike调整后季度收益为每股11美分，超出华尔街预期2美分，而收入也高于预期。这家网络安全公司还上调了全年预期，但股价在盘前下跌2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">Royal Philips NV</a> – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHG\">皇家飞利浦公司</a>-飞利浦在FDA批准其更换消音材料的提案后，获得了FDA的许可，开始维修和更换其DreamStation呼吸设备。这家荷兰科技公司在6月份召回了多达400万台设备，以解决消音泡沫的潜在毒性问题。飞利浦盘前上涨2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a> – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUN\">Sunrun</a>-在分析师两次积极提及后，这家太阳能公司的股价在盘前上涨3.6%。它被添加到摩根大通的美国分析师焦点名单中，也是沃尔夫研究公司新报道中被评为“市场跑赢大盘”的清洁能源股票之一。沃尔夫表示，清洁能源转型是一个长期趋势，将远远超过当前的经济周期。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>-这家中国电动汽车制造商以供应链限制为由下调了第三季度交付预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">Intuit</a> – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTU\">直觉</a>–据接受彭博社采访的知情人士透露，Intuit正在洽谈以超过100亿美元收购电子邮件营销公司Mailchimp。这样的交易将增加这家个人理财软件公司为小型企业提供的工具，其中包括QuickBooks和Credit Karma。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">Southwest Airlines</a> – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>–西南航空飞行员正在起诉该航空公司，指控该航空公司在Covid-19大流行期间对工作条件进行了改变。飞行员认为这些变化应该与工会进行谈判，而该公司表示不需要进行此类谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a> – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>-根据地面运输委员会的裁决，加拿大国民航空将不被允许使用临时投票信托作为其300亿美元收购堪萨斯城南方航空(KSU)交易的一部分。这可能会给完成交易带来重大障碍，也是加拿大太平洋铁路公司（CP）的另一个机会，该公司也提出收购堪萨斯城南方铁路公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">Sprouts Farmers</a> – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFM\">豆芽农民</a>-Sprouts表示，其首席财务官Denise Paulonis将离开这家天然食品连锁超市，董事会成员Lawrence Molloy将于9月25日接替Paulonis。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150578459","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday and put the S&P 500 on course to a new opening high, as investors awaited private jobs data and factory activity indicators for hints on the U.S. central bank’s policy tightening plans.\nAt 8:05 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 111 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 40.5 points, or 0.26%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:05\nWall Street’s main indexes have scaled record highs recently, with the S&P 500 marking a solid 2.9% rise in August as investors shrugged off risks around a rise in new infections and hoped for a gradual removal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nCampbell Soup – The food producer beat top and bottom-line estimates for its latest quarter, earning an adjusted 55 cents per share and beating consensus by 7 cents. It issued a fiscal 2022 adjusted earnings outlook of $2.75-$2.85 per share, compared with a consensus estimate of $2.87, as it deals with higher input costs and a constrained labor market. Shares were initially up more than 1% in premarket trading but subsequently trimmed those gains.\nPVH Corp – PVH reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, well above the $1.20 consensus estimate, while the apparel maker’s revenue topped forecasts as well. The company behind the Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein brands also raised its full-year revenue forecast. PVH shares surged 7.8% in the premarket.\nAmbarella – Ambarella rallied 9.1% in premarket trading after it came in 10 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 35 cents per share. Revenue also beat analyst projections. The maker of chips for cars and cameras said demand is high and that revenue could reach a 5-year high for the current quarter.\nCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. – CrowdStrike beat Street forecasts by 2 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 11 cents per share, while revenue came in above estimates as well. The cybersecurity company also raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell 2.2% in premarket action.\nRoyal Philips NV – Philips received permission from the FDA to begin repairing and replacing its DreamStation respiratory devices after the agency approved its proposal for replacing sound abatement material. The Dutch technology company issued a recall in June for up to 4 million of the devices to fix a potential toxicity problem with sound abatement foam. Philips gained 2.3% in the premarket.\nSunrun – The solar energy company’s stock jumped 3.6% in the premarket following two positive analyst mentions. It was added to the U.S. Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan Chase, and it was also among clean energy stocks rated “market overweight” in new coverage at Wolfe Research. Wolfe said the clean energy transition is a secular trend that will last well past the current economic cycle.\nNIO Inc. – The China-based electric vehicle maker’s shares slid 4.6% in premarket trading after it cut its third-quarter delivery outlook, citing supply chain constraints.\nIntuit – Intuit is in talks to buy e-mail marketing firm Mailchimp for more than $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg. Such a deal would add to the personal finance software company’s tools for small businesses, which include QuickBooks and Credit Karma.\nSouthwest Airlines – Southwest pilots are suing the airline over changes made to working conditions as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold. The pilots contend those changes should have been subject to bargaining with its union, while the company said such bargaining was not required.\nCanadian National Railway – Canadian National will not be allowed to use a temporary voting trust as part of its $30 billion deal to buyKansas City Southern(KSU), following a ruling from the Surface Transportation Board. That could present a significant obstacle to completing the deal, and another opportunity forCanadian Pacific Railway(CP), which has also offered to buy Kansas City Southern.\nSprouts Farmers – Sprouts said its Chief Financial Officer Denise Paulonis is leaving the natural foods supermarket chain, with board member Lawrence Molloy succeeding Paulonis on Sept. 25.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814722928,"gmtCreate":1630886793664,"gmtModify":1631889383342,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814722928","repostId":"2165804101","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812399743,"gmtCreate":1630550644682,"gmtModify":1631892732251,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812399743","repostId":"1110833427","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812393834,"gmtCreate":1630550686528,"gmtModify":1631889383355,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812393834","repostId":"1121030066","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812393994,"gmtCreate":1630550663918,"gmtModify":1631889383359,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812393994","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839477574,"gmtCreate":1629178390598,"gmtModify":1631892732277,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839477574","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在题为“内存——冬天即将到来”的行业报告中，将美光科技（纳斯达克：MU）的评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重。MS警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，这可能会导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，PC市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839474201,"gmtCreate":1629178318003,"gmtModify":1631892732285,"author":{"id":"3577921698084479","authorId":"3577921698084479","name":"jojotay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4d0b8e980a43f142db4742d668b6d86","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577921698084479","idStr":"3577921698084479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good post","listText":"Good post","text":"Good post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839474201","repostId":"1165381771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}