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chahcx

chahcx

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0勋章

2021-04-16

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-04

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2021-03-31

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2021-04-01

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Prepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes<blockquote>为三件事做好准备：大政府、巨大的无用之物、巨额税收</blockquote>

2021-04-10

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2021-04-10

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2021-04-09

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2021-04-09

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2021-04-16

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2021-04-05

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How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16183005317811&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">视频课回顾：万亿基建投资下的美元交易机会</a> 那么没有接触到外汇期货的你可能不明白，到底什么叫做外汇市场，什么叫做汇率期货？ 什么是外汇？ 首先从这个角度入手吧，相信很多人想当然的认为外汇就是外币呗，除了本国货币之外的任何外国货币。 其实是可以简单的这么理解的，因为这并不妨碍我们交易外汇期货，但如果严格的讨论外汇概念并没有那么简单，外汇是指一切通过外币表示出来的国际结算的支付手段，最直观的就是外币有价证券了，比如外币现钞，存款等 另外，从广义上讲，所有以外币表示的可以用作国际清偿的支付手段和资产都可以称为外汇。 比如以下这些：外币现钞，外币支付凭证或者支付工具，包括票据、银行存款凭证、银行卡等；外币有价证券，包括债券、股票等；特别提款权。 有了外汇的概念，就需要了解汇率了， 那啥是汇率，很简单，就是一国（或地区）的货币用他国货币表现出来的价格呗，也就是两国货币之间的兑换比率，我们通常所说的汇率都是把一对货币结合起来说的，表现出数据上时，需要把一种货币作为基础币设为1，另外一个货币兑换","text":"好像还没有给大家聊过外汇期货这个东东，近来有关美元的话题很多，如果从今年初开始的美元涨势阶段性结束，那么非美货币可能会有一次上涨的机会，比如澳元，还有日元等等品种，昨天咱们社区主要研究外汇市场的业内大咖 @程俊Dream 给大家做了一场题为万亿基建刺激下的美元投资机会的视频连线，其中就主要提到了澳元还有日元的机会 视频课回顾：万亿基建投资下的美元交易机会 那么没有接触到外汇期货的你可能不明白，到底什么叫做外汇市场，什么叫做汇率期货？ 什么是外汇？ 首先从这个角度入手吧，相信很多人想当然的认为外汇就是外币呗，除了本国货币之外的任何外国货币。 其实是可以简单的这么理解的，因为这并不妨碍我们交易外汇期货，但如果严格的讨论外汇概念并没有那么简单，外汇是指一切通过外币表示出来的国际结算的支付手段，最直观的就是外币有价证券了，比如外币现钞，存款等 另外，从广义上讲，所有以外币表示的可以用作国际清偿的支付手段和资产都可以称为外汇。 比如以下这些：外币现钞，外币支付凭证或者支付工具，包括票据、银行存款凭证、银行卡等；外币有价证券，包括债券、股票等；特别提款权。 有了外汇的概念，就需要了解汇率了， 那啥是汇率，很简单，就是一国（或地区）的货币用他国货币表现出来的价格呗，也就是两国货币之间的兑换比率，我们通常所说的汇率都是把一对货币结合起来说的，表现出数据上时，需要把一种货币作为基础币设为1，另外一个货币兑换","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/213b7da547971403d25199780030b5be","width":"515","height":"532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08762590848976e9f86a55a40382174f","width":"839","height":"469"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ee91fde00c053508589270d2a2e5cf5","width":"1080","height":"2280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370870860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370094912,"gmtCreate":1618534807436,"gmtModify":1634292274276,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","listText":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","text":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370094912","repostId":"1184470866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370096450,"gmtCreate":1618534691570,"gmtModify":1634292276188,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370096450","repostId":"1184470866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346895221,"gmtCreate":1618019323363,"gmtModify":1634295210639,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment pls :D","listText":"Comment pls :D","text":"Comment pls 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😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346892737","repostId":"2126038125","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346892278,"gmtCreate":1618019268194,"gmtModify":1634295211362,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment :D","listText":"Pls comment :D","text":"Pls comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346892278","repostId":"2126333180","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346896488,"gmtCreate":1618019216444,"gmtModify":1634295211726,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment :D","listText":"Pls comment :D","text":"Pls comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346896488","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346896345,"gmtCreate":1618019182587,"gmtModify":1634295212335,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment :D","listText":"Pls comment :D","text":"Pls comment 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:D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348231055","repostId":"2126012847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341717089,"gmtCreate":1617855731241,"gmtModify":1634296118864,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341717089","repostId":"2125726223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343077587,"gmtCreate":1617667280449,"gmtModify":1634297267284,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and reply","listText":"Pls like and reply","text":"Pls like and reply","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343077587","repostId":"1176115930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176115930","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617634372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176115930?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 22:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Delivery Numbers Looked Great. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉的交付数据看起来很棒。这是华尔街的想法。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176115930","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s first-quarter deliveries, reported on Friday during the market’s close, blew away Wall Stree","content":"<p>Tesla‘s first-quarter deliveries, reported on Friday during the market’s close, blew away Wall Street’s expectations. Investors sent shares of the electric-vehicle pioneer up sharply in early morning trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周五收盘时公布的特斯拉第一季度交付量超出了华尔街的预期。周一早盘，投资者推动这家电动汽车先驱的股价大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported 185,000 vehicle deliveries for the first three months of 2021. Analyst projections for the quarter had drifted down to between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles due to the global automotive microchip shortage roiling the entire automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）报告称，2021年前三个月交付了185,000辆汽车。由于全球汽车微芯片短缺扰乱了整个汽车行业，分析师对本季度汽车销量的预测已降至160,000至170,000辆。</blockquote></p><p> It was a big beat. What’s more, Tesla’s 185,000 deliveries were higher than what the Street expected before analysts warned of the chip shortage. Tesla stock, as a result, is up almost 8% in premarket trading to about $711 a share.S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;futures, for comparison, are both up less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很大的节拍。更重要的是，特斯拉18.5万辆的交付量高于分析师警告芯片短缺之前华尔街的预期。因此，特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近8%，至每股约711美元。相比之下，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数期货均上涨不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> The car maker’s deliveries were good enough for one analyst to upgrade his rating on the stock. Wedbush’sDan Ivesboosted his rating to Buy from Hold and raised his price target to $1,000 a share from $950. “The 1Q delivery number….was a paradigm changer and shows that the pent-up demand globally for&nbsp;Tesla’s Model 3/Y is hitting its next stage of growth,” wrote Ives in a Sunday note. “A global green tidal wave [is] underway.”</p><p><blockquote>这家汽车制造商的交付量足以让一位分析师上调对该股的评级。Wedbush的Dan Ives将其评级从持有上调至买入，并将目标价从每股950美元上调至1,000美元。“第一季度的交付数量……是一个范式改变者，表明全球对特斯拉Model 3/Y被压抑的需求正在进入下一个增长阶段，”Ives在周日的一份报告中写道。“一场全球绿色浪潮正在兴起。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives expects government incentives around the world to boost demand for electric vehicles. He increased his full-year delivery target for Tesla to about 850,000 vehicles. The current Wall Street consensus is about 800,000.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯预计，世界各地的政府激励措施将提振对电动汽车的需求。他将特斯拉全年交付目标提高至约85万辆。目前华尔街的共识是80万左右。</blockquote></p><p> New Street Research analyst&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;rated Tesla shares Buy with a $900 price target before Tesla’s delivery report. Ferragu, however, was a little nervous, believing that the chip shortage would impact deliveries. The results dismissed those concerns: “Initial review suggests we missed a monster March in China with Model Y ramping faster than we expected.” He sees Tesla’s earnings estimate moving higher because of Model Y growth. He also believes Tesla’s Model S and X vehicles, which are undergoing a refresh next quarter to upgrade interiors and features, can boost second-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu在特斯拉发布交付报告之前将特斯拉股票评级为买入，目标价为900美元。然而，Ferragu有点紧张，认为芯片短缺会影响交付。结果打消了这些担忧：“初步审查表明，我们错过了Model Y在中国的大规模进军，其速度比我们预期的要快。”他认为，由于Model Y的增长，特斯拉的盈利预期将会上调。他还认为，特斯拉的Model S和X车辆将在下个季度进行更新，以升级内饰和功能，这可以提振第二季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 2,000 Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter, lower than Baird analystBen Kalloexpected. “While a miss, this result is an inventory-clearing event ahead of significant upgrades of the model S and X,” wrote Kallo in a Monday report. those are undergoing a “refresh” in the second quarter. Auto makers will refresh models from time to time, upgrading interiors and features.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度交付了2,000辆Model S和X汽车，低于Baird分析师Ben Kallo的预期。Kallo在周一的一份报告中写道：“虽然没有成功，但这一结果是model S和X重大升级之前的一次库存清理事件。”这些将在第二季度进行“更新”。汽车制造商会不时更新车型，升级内饰和功能。</blockquote></p><p> This will be the most significant refresh of those two models. Tesla will also launch the Model S Plaid edition, which the car maker says will be the fastest production vehicle ever made. “The new vehicles are due for [second quarter] delivery as the company is in the early stages of ramping production.”</p><p><blockquote>这将是这两款车型最重大的更新。特斯拉还将推出Model S格子版，该汽车制造商表示，这将是有史以来最快的量产车。“由于公司正处于增产的早期阶段，新车将于[第二季度]交付。”</blockquote></p><p> Kallo rates shares Buy and has a $736 price target for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Kallo将该股评级为“买入”，并将该股目标价定为736美元。</blockquote></p><p> Not everyone is as bullish on Tesla stock. Cowen analystJeffery Osbornerates shares Hold. Despite his more cautious view, Osborne is raising his full-year delivery numbers and price target for shares of Tesla. “Receptivity to the Model Y in China was always a grey area in our minds since there was never disclosure on deposit/interest levels from Tesla,” wrote Osborne in a Sunday report. “Given the upside in [the first quarter] coupled with the positive tone in the release, we are raising our Model Y forecasts for 2021 and would expect the Street to do so.” Osborne raised his price target to $573 from $545.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有人都同样看好特斯拉股票。Cowen分析师杰弗里·奥斯本(Jeffery Osborn)评级为持有股票。尽管Osborne的观点更加谨慎，但他正在提高特斯拉股票的全年交付数据和目标价。Osborne在周日的一份报告中写道：“Model Y在中国的接受度一直是我们心中的灰色地带，因为特斯拉从未披露过存款/利息水平。”“鉴于[第一季度]的上涨空间以及发布的积极基调，我们正在上调2021年Model Y的预测，并预计华尔街也会这样做。”奥斯本将目标价从545美元上调至573美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst&nbsp;Ryan Brinkman, who rates shares Sell, raised his target to $155 from $135 a share, still well below where the stock has been trading. Brinkman noted that sequential deliveries from the fourth to the first quarter, at 2%, were essentially flat. That’s one reason he believes Tesla stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师瑞安·布林克曼(Ryan Brinkman)将该股评级为卖出，他将目标从每股135美元上调至155美元，仍远低于该股的交易价格。Brinkman指出，从第四季度到第一季度的连续交付量为2%，基本持平。这是他认为特斯拉股票定价过高的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Sell-rated GLJ analyst&nbsp;Gordon Johnson&nbsp;made the same point in his note. “Tesla has a growing demand problem,” wrote Johnson, saying that the more than 100% year-over-year growth in the first quarter isn’t as important as the 2% sequential growth from the fourth to the first quarter. His target price for Tesla stock is the lowest on the Street at $67 a share.</p><p><blockquote>卖出评级的GLJ分析师戈登·约翰逊(Gordon Johnson)在他的报告中也提出了同样的观点。“特斯拉的需求问题日益严重，”Johnson写道，他表示，第一季度超过100%的同比增长不如第四季度至第一季度2%的环比增长重要。他对特斯拉股票的目标价是华尔街最低的，为每股67美元。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson also questioned why Tesla&nbsp;produced zero&nbsp;Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter ahead of the refresh. That’s something analysts and investors can ask management about on the coming conference call.</p><p><blockquote>Johnson还质疑为什么特斯拉在更新之前的第一季度生产了零辆Model S和X汽车。这是分析师和投资者可以在即将到来的电话会议中向管理层询问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Delivery Numbers Looked Great. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉的交付数据看起来很棒。这是华尔街的想法。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Delivery Numbers Looked Great. Here’s What Wall Street Thinks.<blockquote>特斯拉的交付数据看起来很棒。这是华尔街的想法。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-05 22:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla‘s first-quarter deliveries, reported on Friday during the market’s close, blew away Wall Street’s expectations. Investors sent shares of the electric-vehicle pioneer up sharply in early morning trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>周五收盘时公布的特斯拉第一季度交付量超出了华尔街的预期。周一早盘，投资者推动这家电动汽车先驱的股价大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported 185,000 vehicle deliveries for the first three months of 2021. Analyst projections for the quarter had drifted down to between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles due to the global automotive microchip shortage roiling the entire automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）报告称，2021年前三个月交付了185,000辆汽车。由于全球汽车微芯片短缺扰乱了整个汽车行业，分析师对本季度汽车销量的预测已降至160,000至170,000辆。</blockquote></p><p> It was a big beat. What’s more, Tesla’s 185,000 deliveries were higher than what the Street expected before analysts warned of the chip shortage. Tesla stock, as a result, is up almost 8% in premarket trading to about $711 a share.S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;futures, for comparison, are both up less than 1%.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很大的节拍。更重要的是，特斯拉18.5万辆的交付量高于分析师警告芯片短缺之前华尔街的预期。因此，特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近8%，至每股约711美元。相比之下，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数期货均上涨不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> The car maker’s deliveries were good enough for one analyst to upgrade his rating on the stock. Wedbush’sDan Ivesboosted his rating to Buy from Hold and raised his price target to $1,000 a share from $950. “The 1Q delivery number….was a paradigm changer and shows that the pent-up demand globally for&nbsp;Tesla’s Model 3/Y is hitting its next stage of growth,” wrote Ives in a Sunday note. “A global green tidal wave [is] underway.”</p><p><blockquote>这家汽车制造商的交付量足以让一位分析师上调对该股的评级。Wedbush的Dan Ives将其评级从持有上调至买入，并将目标价从每股950美元上调至1,000美元。“第一季度的交付数量……是一个范式改变者，表明全球对特斯拉Model 3/Y被压抑的需求正在进入下一个增长阶段，”Ives在周日的一份报告中写道。“一场全球绿色浪潮正在兴起。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives expects government incentives around the world to boost demand for electric vehicles. He increased his full-year delivery target for Tesla to about 850,000 vehicles. The current Wall Street consensus is about 800,000.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯预计，世界各地的政府激励措施将提振对电动汽车的需求。他将特斯拉全年交付目标提高至约85万辆。目前华尔街的共识是80万左右。</blockquote></p><p> New Street Research analyst&nbsp;Pierre Ferragu&nbsp;rated Tesla shares Buy with a $900 price target before Tesla’s delivery report. Ferragu, however, was a little nervous, believing that the chip shortage would impact deliveries. The results dismissed those concerns: “Initial review suggests we missed a monster March in China with Model Y ramping faster than we expected.” He sees Tesla’s earnings estimate moving higher because of Model Y growth. He also believes Tesla’s Model S and X vehicles, which are undergoing a refresh next quarter to upgrade interiors and features, can boost second-quarter results.</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu在特斯拉发布交付报告之前将特斯拉股票评级为买入，目标价为900美元。然而，Ferragu有点紧张，认为芯片短缺会影响交付。结果打消了这些担忧：“初步审查表明，我们错过了Model Y在中国的大规模进军，其速度比我们预期的要快。”他认为，由于Model Y的增长，特斯拉的盈利预期将会上调。他还认为，特斯拉的Model S和X车辆将在下个季度进行更新，以升级内饰和功能，这可以提振第二季度的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 2,000 Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter, lower than Baird analystBen Kalloexpected. “While a miss, this result is an inventory-clearing event ahead of significant upgrades of the model S and X,” wrote Kallo in a Monday report. those are undergoing a “refresh” in the second quarter. Auto makers will refresh models from time to time, upgrading interiors and features.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉第一季度交付了2,000辆Model S和X汽车，低于Baird分析师Ben Kallo的预期。Kallo在周一的一份报告中写道：“虽然没有成功，但这一结果是model S和X重大升级之前的一次库存清理事件。”这些将在第二季度进行“更新”。汽车制造商会不时更新车型，升级内饰和功能。</blockquote></p><p> This will be the most significant refresh of those two models. Tesla will also launch the Model S Plaid edition, which the car maker says will be the fastest production vehicle ever made. “The new vehicles are due for [second quarter] delivery as the company is in the early stages of ramping production.”</p><p><blockquote>这将是这两款车型最重大的更新。特斯拉还将推出Model S格子版，该汽车制造商表示，这将是有史以来最快的量产车。“由于公司正处于增产的早期阶段，新车将于[第二季度]交付。”</blockquote></p><p> Kallo rates shares Buy and has a $736 price target for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>Kallo将该股评级为“买入”，并将该股目标价定为736美元。</blockquote></p><p> Not everyone is as bullish on Tesla stock. Cowen analystJeffery Osbornerates shares Hold. Despite his more cautious view, Osborne is raising his full-year delivery numbers and price target for shares of Tesla. “Receptivity to the Model Y in China was always a grey area in our minds since there was never disclosure on deposit/interest levels from Tesla,” wrote Osborne in a Sunday report. “Given the upside in [the first quarter] coupled with the positive tone in the release, we are raising our Model Y forecasts for 2021 and would expect the Street to do so.” Osborne raised his price target to $573 from $545.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有人都同样看好特斯拉股票。Cowen分析师杰弗里·奥斯本(Jeffery Osborn)评级为持有股票。尽管Osborne的观点更加谨慎，但他正在提高特斯拉股票的全年交付数据和目标价。Osborne在周日的一份报告中写道：“Model Y在中国的接受度一直是我们心中的灰色地带，因为特斯拉从未披露过存款/利息水平。”“鉴于[第一季度]的上涨空间以及发布的积极基调，我们正在上调2021年Model Y的预测，并预计华尔街也会这样做。”奥斯本将目标价从545美元上调至573美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.P. Morgan analyst&nbsp;Ryan Brinkman, who rates shares Sell, raised his target to $155 from $135 a share, still well below where the stock has been trading. Brinkman noted that sequential deliveries from the fourth to the first quarter, at 2%, were essentially flat. That’s one reason he believes Tesla stock is overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通分析师瑞安·布林克曼(Ryan Brinkman)将该股评级为卖出，他将目标从每股135美元上调至155美元，仍远低于该股的交易价格。Brinkman指出，从第四季度到第一季度的连续交付量为2%，基本持平。这是他认为特斯拉股票定价过高的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Sell-rated GLJ analyst&nbsp;Gordon Johnson&nbsp;made the same point in his note. “Tesla has a growing demand problem,” wrote Johnson, saying that the more than 100% year-over-year growth in the first quarter isn’t as important as the 2% sequential growth from the fourth to the first quarter. His target price for Tesla stock is the lowest on the Street at $67 a share.</p><p><blockquote>卖出评级的GLJ分析师戈登·约翰逊(Gordon Johnson)在他的报告中也提出了同样的观点。“特斯拉的需求问题日益严重，”Johnson写道，他表示，第一季度超过100%的同比增长不如第四季度至第一季度2%的环比增长重要。他对特斯拉股票的目标价是华尔街最低的，为每股67美元。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson also questioned why Tesla&nbsp;produced zero&nbsp;Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter ahead of the refresh. That’s something analysts and investors can ask management about on the coming conference call.</p><p><blockquote>Johnson还质疑为什么特斯拉在更新之前的第一季度生产了零辆Model S和X汽车。这是分析师和投资者可以在即将到来的电话会议中向管理层询问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/teslas-delivery-numbers-looked-great-heres-what-wall-street-thinks-51617627233?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/teslas-delivery-numbers-looked-great-heres-what-wall-street-thinks-51617627233?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176115930","content_text":"Tesla‘s first-quarter deliveries, reported on Friday during the market’s close, blew away Wall Street’s expectations. Investors sent shares of the electric-vehicle pioneer up sharply in early morning trading on Monday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) reported 185,000 vehicle deliveries for the first three months of 2021. Analyst projections for the quarter had drifted down to between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles due to the global automotive microchip shortage roiling the entire automotive industry.\nIt was a big beat. What’s more, Tesla’s 185,000 deliveries were higher than what the Street expected before analysts warned of the chip shortage. Tesla stock, as a result, is up almost 8% in premarket trading to about $711 a share.S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, for comparison, are both up less than 1%.\nThe car maker’s deliveries were good enough for one analyst to upgrade his rating on the stock. Wedbush’sDan Ivesboosted his rating to Buy from Hold and raised his price target to $1,000 a share from $950. “The 1Q delivery number….was a paradigm changer and shows that the pent-up demand globally for Tesla’s Model 3/Y is hitting its next stage of growth,” wrote Ives in a Sunday note. “A global green tidal wave [is] underway.”\nIves expects government incentives around the world to boost demand for electric vehicles. He increased his full-year delivery target for Tesla to about 850,000 vehicles. The current Wall Street consensus is about 800,000.\nNew Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu rated Tesla shares Buy with a $900 price target before Tesla’s delivery report. Ferragu, however, was a little nervous, believing that the chip shortage would impact deliveries. The results dismissed those concerns: “Initial review suggests we missed a monster March in China with Model Y ramping faster than we expected.” He sees Tesla’s earnings estimate moving higher because of Model Y growth. He also believes Tesla’s Model S and X vehicles, which are undergoing a refresh next quarter to upgrade interiors and features, can boost second-quarter results.\nTesla delivered 2,000 Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter, lower than Baird analystBen Kalloexpected. “While a miss, this result is an inventory-clearing event ahead of significant upgrades of the model S and X,” wrote Kallo in a Monday report. those are undergoing a “refresh” in the second quarter. Auto makers will refresh models from time to time, upgrading interiors and features.\nThis will be the most significant refresh of those two models. Tesla will also launch the Model S Plaid edition, which the car maker says will be the fastest production vehicle ever made. “The new vehicles are due for [second quarter] delivery as the company is in the early stages of ramping production.”\nKallo rates shares Buy and has a $736 price target for the stock.\nNot everyone is as bullish on Tesla stock. Cowen analystJeffery Osbornerates shares Hold. Despite his more cautious view, Osborne is raising his full-year delivery numbers and price target for shares of Tesla. “Receptivity to the Model Y in China was always a grey area in our minds since there was never disclosure on deposit/interest levels from Tesla,” wrote Osborne in a Sunday report. “Given the upside in [the first quarter] coupled with the positive tone in the release, we are raising our Model Y forecasts for 2021 and would expect the Street to do so.” Osborne raised his price target to $573 from $545.\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, who rates shares Sell, raised his target to $155 from $135 a share, still well below where the stock has been trading. Brinkman noted that sequential deliveries from the fourth to the first quarter, at 2%, were essentially flat. That’s one reason he believes Tesla stock is overpriced.\nSell-rated GLJ analyst Gordon Johnson made the same point in his note. “Tesla has a growing demand problem,” wrote Johnson, saying that the more than 100% year-over-year growth in the first quarter isn’t as important as the 2% sequential growth from the fourth to the first quarter. His target price for Tesla stock is the lowest on the Street at $67 a share.\nJohnson also questioned why Tesla produced zero Model S and X vehicles in the first quarter ahead of the refresh. That’s something analysts and investors can ask management about on the coming conference call.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343077660,"gmtCreate":1617667264550,"gmtModify":1634297267403,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and reply ;)","listText":"Pls like and reply ;)","text":"Pls like and reply ;)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343077660","repostId":"1178830231","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178830231","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617634979,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178830231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-05 23:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Roblox Climbed 5% as Analysts Initiate Coverage With Buy Ratings<blockquote>分析师首次给予买入评级，Roblox股价上涨5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178830231","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Roblox was rising Monday after several analysts initiated coverage of the video game platform with p","content":"<p>Roblox&nbsp;was rising Monday after several analysts initiated coverage of the&nbsp;video game platform with positive ratings a month after the company went public.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox上市一个月后，几位分析师开始对该视频游戏平台进行正面评价，周一股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Roblox was&nbsp;climbing 4.9% to $70.64 in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，Roblox股价上涨4.9%，至70.64美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8680408b68d8acf9876ff4a2df65f1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Bank of America analyst Ryan Gee initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $70 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Ryan Gee首次对该公司给予买入评级和70美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>\"RBLX offers exposure to the massive mobile TAM (Total Addressable Market) with less-relative capital risk than what we associate with traditional content creators,\" Gee said in a research note. \"The blend of social networking, AAA gaming, and design software characteristics is unique on mobile and RBLX stands apart from gaming peers with the scalable economics of traditional online marketplaces.\"</p><p><blockquote>Gee在一份研究报告中表示：“RBLX提供了对庞大移动TAM（总目标市场）的投资，其相对资本风险低于我们与传统内容创作者的相关风险。”“社交网络、AAA游戏和设计软件特征的融合在移动设备上是独一无二的，RBLX凭借传统在线市场的可扩展经济性从游戏同行中脱颖而出。”</blockquote></p><p>AAA&nbsp;is an informal classification used for video games&nbsp;produced and distributed by a mid-sized&nbsp;or major publisher, usually having higher development and marketing budgets.</p><p><blockquote>AAA是一种非正式分类，用于由中型或大型发行商制作和发行的视频游戏，通常具有较高的开发和营销预算。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox, Gee said \"combines the communication utility of social networks with the monetization/engagement of AAA gaming and has democratized content creation such that any user is a creator.\"</p><p><blockquote>Gee表示，Roblox“将社交网络的通信效用与AAA游戏的货币化/参与度相结合，并使内容创作民主化，使任何用户都是创作者。”</blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng kicked off coverage of Roblox with a buy rating and a price target of $81 per share.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师Michael Ng对Roblox给予买入评级，目标价为每股81美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ng said that \"the creation and monetization of user-generated content effectively allows RBLX to outsource game development costs to its creators while retaining the economic upside with a diversified portfolio of content, reducing hit-risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ng表示，“用户生成内容的创建和货币化有效地使RBLX能够将游戏开发成本外包给创作者，同时通过多元化的内容组合保留经济优势，降低热门风险。”</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak initiated coverage of Roblox with an overweight rating and and $80 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Brian Nowak首次对Roblox进行了跑赢大盘评级和80美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We believe RBLX is still in the early innings of its user opportunity, as its 33 [million] '20 daily active users (DAUs) represent just 6% penetration of ~500 [million] 5-24 year olds in its current countries,\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为RBLX仍处于用户机会的早期阶段，因为其3300万20日活跃用户(DAU)仅占其当前国家约5亿5-24岁人群的6%，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p>Nowak said that industry leading engagement speaks to how the company is \"blurring the lines between social and gaming.\"</p><p><blockquote>诺瓦克表示，行业领先的参与度表明该公司正在“模糊社交和游戏之间的界限”。</blockquote></p><p>Truist analyst Matthew Thornton initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $78 price target, saying he believes that Roblox&nbsp;\"has a strong and defensible position on account of substantial investment in safety and two mutually reinforcing network effects (social and content).\"</p><p><blockquote>Truist分析师Matthew Thornton首次对该公司给予买入评级和78美元的目标价，他表示他相信Roblox“由于在安全方面的大量投资以及两种相互增强的网络效应（社交和内容），拥有强大且可防御的地位。”</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;made its&nbsp;stock market debut&nbsp;last month at $64.50 a share, above the reference price of $45 set by the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox上个月以每股64.50美元的价格首次上市，高于纽约证券交易所设定的45美元的参考价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox Climbed 5% as Analysts Initiate Coverage With Buy Ratings<blockquote>分析师首次给予买入评级，Roblox股价上涨5%</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox Climbed 5% as Analysts Initiate Coverage With Buy Ratings<blockquote>分析师首次给予买入评级，Roblox股价上涨5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-05 23:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Roblox&nbsp;was rising Monday after several analysts initiated coverage of the&nbsp;video game platform with positive ratings a month after the company went public.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox上市一个月后，几位分析师开始对该视频游戏平台进行正面评价，周一股价上涨。</blockquote></p><p>Shares of Roblox was&nbsp;climbing 4.9% to $70.64 in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，Roblox股价上涨4.9%，至70.64美元。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8680408b68d8acf9876ff4a2df65f1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Bank of America analyst Ryan Gee initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $70 price target.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行分析师Ryan Gee首次对该公司给予买入评级和70美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>\"RBLX offers exposure to the massive mobile TAM (Total Addressable Market) with less-relative capital risk than what we associate with traditional content creators,\" Gee said in a research note. \"The blend of social networking, AAA gaming, and design software characteristics is unique on mobile and RBLX stands apart from gaming peers with the scalable economics of traditional online marketplaces.\"</p><p><blockquote>Gee在一份研究报告中表示：“RBLX提供了对庞大移动TAM（总目标市场）的投资，其相对资本风险低于我们与传统内容创作者的相关风险。”“社交网络、AAA游戏和设计软件特征的融合在移动设备上是独一无二的，RBLX凭借传统在线市场的可扩展经济性从游戏同行中脱颖而出。”</blockquote></p><p>AAA&nbsp;is an informal classification used for video games&nbsp;produced and distributed by a mid-sized&nbsp;or major publisher, usually having higher development and marketing budgets.</p><p><blockquote>AAA是一种非正式分类，用于由中型或大型发行商制作和发行的视频游戏，通常具有较高的开发和营销预算。</blockquote></p><p>Roblox, Gee said \"combines the communication utility of social networks with the monetization/engagement of AAA gaming and has democratized content creation such that any user is a creator.\"</p><p><blockquote>Gee表示，Roblox“将社交网络的通信效用与AAA游戏的货币化/参与度相结合，并使内容创作民主化，使任何用户都是创作者。”</blockquote></p><p>Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng kicked off coverage of Roblox with a buy rating and a price target of $81 per share.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师Michael Ng对Roblox给予买入评级，目标价为每股81美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ng said that \"the creation and monetization of user-generated content effectively allows RBLX to outsource game development costs to its creators while retaining the economic upside with a diversified portfolio of content, reducing hit-risk.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ng表示，“用户生成内容的创建和货币化有效地使RBLX能够将游戏开发成本外包给创作者，同时通过多元化的内容组合保留经济优势，降低热门风险。”</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak initiated coverage of Roblox with an overweight rating and and $80 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Morgan Stanley分析师Brian Nowak首次对Roblox进行了跑赢大盘评级和80美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p>\"We believe RBLX is still in the early innings of its user opportunity, as its 33 [million] '20 daily active users (DAUs) represent just 6% penetration of ~500 [million] 5-24 year olds in its current countries,\" the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们认为RBLX仍处于用户机会的早期阶段，因为其3300万20日活跃用户(DAU)仅占其当前国家约5亿5-24岁人群的6%，”分析师表示。</blockquote></p><p>Nowak said that industry leading engagement speaks to how the company is \"blurring the lines between social and gaming.\"</p><p><blockquote>诺瓦克表示，行业领先的参与度表明该公司正在“模糊社交和游戏之间的界限”。</blockquote></p><p>Truist analyst Matthew Thornton initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $78 price target, saying he believes that Roblox&nbsp;\"has a strong and defensible position on account of substantial investment in safety and two mutually reinforcing network effects (social and content).\"</p><p><blockquote>Truist分析师Matthew Thornton首次对该公司给予买入评级和78美元的目标价，他表示他相信Roblox“由于在安全方面的大量投资以及两种相互增强的网络效应（社交和内容），拥有强大且可防御的地位。”</blockquote></p><p>Roblox&nbsp;made its&nbsp;stock market debut&nbsp;last month at $64.50 a share, above the reference price of $45 set by the New York Stock Exchange.</p><p><blockquote>Roblox上个月以每股64.50美元的价格首次上市，高于纽约证券交易所设定的45美元的参考价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178830231","content_text":"Roblox was rising Monday after several analysts initiated coverage of the video game platform with positive ratings a month after the company went public.Shares of Roblox was climbing 4.9% to $70.64 in Monday morning trading.Bank of America analyst Ryan Gee initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $70 price target.\"RBLX offers exposure to the massive mobile TAM (Total Addressable Market) with less-relative capital risk than what we associate with traditional content creators,\" Gee said in a research note. \"The blend of social networking, AAA gaming, and design software characteristics is unique on mobile and RBLX stands apart from gaming peers with the scalable economics of traditional online marketplaces.\"AAA is an informal classification used for video games produced and distributed by a mid-sized or major publisher, usually having higher development and marketing budgets.Roblox, Gee said \"combines the communication utility of social networks with the monetization/engagement of AAA gaming and has democratized content creation such that any user is a creator.\"Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng kicked off coverage of Roblox with a buy rating and a price target of $81 per share.Ng said that \"the creation and monetization of user-generated content effectively allows RBLX to outsource game development costs to its creators while retaining the economic upside with a diversified portfolio of content, reducing hit-risk.\"Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak initiated coverage of Roblox with an overweight rating and and $80 price target.\"We believe RBLX is still in the early innings of its user opportunity, as its 33 [million] '20 daily active users (DAUs) represent just 6% penetration of ~500 [million] 5-24 year olds in its current countries,\" the analyst said.Nowak said that industry leading engagement speaks to how the company is \"blurring the lines between social and gaming.\"Truist analyst Matthew Thornton initiated coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $78 price target, saying he believes that Roblox \"has a strong and defensible position on account of substantial investment in safety and two mutually reinforcing network effects (social and content).\"Roblox made its stock market debut last month at $64.50 a share, above the reference price of $45 set by the New York Stock Exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343074419,"gmtCreate":1617667231831,"gmtModify":1634297268007,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fairly valued.&nbsp;Pls like and reply for unlimited good luck ;)","listText":"Fairly valued.&nbsp;Pls like and reply for unlimited good luck ;)","text":"Fairly valued. Pls like and reply for unlimited good luck ;)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343074419","repostId":"2125765476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343074697,"gmtCreate":1617667176219,"gmtModify":1634297268230,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and reply hehe, god bless","listText":"Pls like and reply hehe, god bless","text":"Pls like and reply hehe, god bless","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343074697","repostId":"1167453696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343075726,"gmtCreate":1617667127665,"gmtModify":1634297268710,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow cool post, thanks for sharing","listText":"Wow cool post, thanks for sharing","text":"Wow cool post, thanks for 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370096450","repostId":"1184470866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349017871,"gmtCreate":1617505193093,"gmtModify":1634520745602,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","listText":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","text":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349017871","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354158617,"gmtCreate":1617153571039,"gmtModify":1634522387266,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like my comment for unlimited good luck :D","listText":"Pls like my comment for unlimited good luck :D","text":"Pls like my comment for unlimited good luck :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354158617","repostId":"1163996400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357613058,"gmtCreate":1617266556474,"gmtModify":1634521716689,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","listText":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","text":"Please like and reply for unlimited good luck :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357613058","repostId":"1176034429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176034429","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617265621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176034429?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Prepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes<blockquote>为三件事做好准备：大政府、巨大的无用之物、巨额税收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176034429","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Progressives have their eyes on on your wallet to pay for their big government schemes. And it looks","content":"<p><i><b>Progressives have their eyes on on your wallet to pay for their big government schemes. And it looks like Biden will oblige them.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>进步人士盯上了你的钱包，为他们的大型政府计划买单。看起来拜登会答应他们。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>$10 Trillion for Climate and Infrastructure</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10万亿美元用于气候和基础设施</b></blockquote></p><p> The National Review reports Liberal Senators Push Biden for a&nbsp;$10 Trillion Climate and Infrastructure Bill</p><p><blockquote>《国家评论》报道自由派参议员推动拜登提出10万亿美元的气候和基础设施法案</blockquote></p><p>   On Monday, Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) unveiled a climate and infrastructure plan that called for $10 trillion in spending over the next decade. Biden’s initial campaign pledge to invest $2 trillion over four years was already inadequate to confronting climate change, and his coming proposal may be even less so, said Robert Pollin, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who helped craft the Markey-Dingell plan. Pollin said a $3 trillion investment only amounted to about 1.3 percent of America’s gross domestic product.To put the $10 trillion Markey and Dingell are proposing in perspective, over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office&nbsp;expects&nbsp;that we’ll spend $1.4 trillion on veterans’ programs, $6 trillion on Medicaid, $8.5 trillion on defense, and $8 trillion on all other non-defense discretionary spending. The Markey-Dingell bill would be higher than any of these parts of the budget, only it would come on top of all of these existing expenditures.  <b>Biden's Big Plans</b></p><p><blockquote>周一，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员爱德华·J·马基(Edward J.Markey)和密歇根州民主党众议员黛比·丁格尔(Debbie Dingell)公布了一项气候和基础设施计划，要求在未来十年内支出10万亿美元。帮助制定马基-丁格尔计划的马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济学家罗伯特·波林表示，拜登最初的竞选承诺在四年内投资2万亿美元已经不足以应对气候变化，他即将提出的提案可能更不足以应对气候变化。波林表示，3万亿美元的投资仅相当于美国国内生产总值的1.3%左右。为了正确看待马基和丁格尔提出的10万亿美元，国会预算办公室预计，在未来十年，我们将在退伍军人计划上花费1.4万亿美元，在医疗补助上花费6万亿美元，在国防上花费8.5万亿美元，在所有其他非国防可自由支配支出上花费8万亿美元。马基-丁格尔法案将高于预算的任何部分，只是它将出现在所有这些现有支出之上。<b>拜登的大计划</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal comments&nbsp;Behind Biden’s Big Plans: Belief That Government Can Drive Growth</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》评论拜登大计划背后：相信政府可以推动增长</blockquote></p><p>   The Biden economic team’s ambitions go beyond size to scope. The centerpiece of their program—a multitrillion-dollar proposal to be rolled out starting Wednesday, less than a month after a $1.9 trillion stimulus—seeks to give Washington a new commercial role in matters ranging from charging stations for electric vehicles to child care, and more responsibility for underwriting education, incomes and higher-paying jobs.The administration has also laid the groundwork for regulations aimed at empowering labor unions, restricting big businesses from dominating their markets and prodding banks to lend more to minorities and less for fossil-fuel projects. All while federal debt is currently at a level not seen since World War II.It all marks a major turning point for economic policy. The gamble underlying the agenda is a belief that government can be a primary driver for growth. It’s an attempt to recalibrate assumptions that have shaped economic policy of both parties since the 1980s: that the public sector is inherently less efficient than the private, and bureaucrats should generally defer to markets.The administration’s sweeping plans reflect a calculation that “the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much,” said White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. “We’re going to be unapologetic about that,” he said. “Government must be a powerful force for good in the lives of Americans.”  <b>Crazy Thinking</b></p><p><blockquote>拜登经济团队的野心超越了规模和范围。他们计划的核心——一项数万亿美元的提案将于周三开始推出，距离1.9万亿美元的刺激计划不到一个月——旨在让华盛顿在从电动汽车充电站到儿童保育等问题上扮演新的商业角色，以及承担更多教育、收入和高薪工作的责任。政府还为旨在赋予工会权力的法规奠定了基础，限制大企业主导市场，并敦促银行增加对少数族裔的贷款，减少对化石燃料项目的贷款。与此同时，联邦债务目前处于二战以来的最高水平。这一切都标志着经济政策的一个重大转折点。议程背后的赌博是一种信念，即政府可以成为增长的主要驱动力。这是试图重新调整自20世纪80年代以来影响两党经济政策的假设：公共部门本质上不如私营部门效率，官僚通常应该尊重市场。白宫国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯表示，政府的全面计划反映了一种计算，即“做得太少的风险大于做得太多的风险”。“我们不会为此道歉，”他说。“政府必须成为美国人生活中一股强大的向善力量。”<b>疯狂的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think this is crazy, you are thinking correctly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为这很疯狂，那你就想对了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>If you don't think this is crazy, you are crazy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果你不认为这很疯狂，那你就是疯了。</b></blockquote></p><p> The notion that government can spend money wisely and allocate resources wisely has been disproved countless times.</p><p><blockquote>政府可以明智地花钱和明智地分配资源的观念已经被无数次证明是错误的。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at Soviet 5-year plans, Venezuela, Japan for the last three decades, or dozens of other examples.</p><p><blockquote>看看苏联的五年计划、委内瑞拉、日本过去三十年的计划，或者其他几十个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Word About Capitalism</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于资本主义的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> The saving grace of capitalism is failure. Good ideas are rewarded, bad ideas fail.</p><p><blockquote>资本主义的可取之处是失败。好主意会有回报，坏主意会失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>We don't have failure, we have bank bailouts, student loan bailouts, housing bailouts, and so many moral hazard market interventions by the Fed and Congress I cannot even name all the facilities or tools.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们没有失败，我们有银行救助、学生贷款救助、住房救助，以及美联储和国会如此多的道德风险市场干预，我甚至无法说出所有的设施或工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> And without failure, you don't have capitalism.&nbsp;So don't tell me that we need big government because capitalism doesn't work.</p><p><blockquote>没有失败，你就没有资本主义。所以不要告诉我我们需要大政府，因为资本主义行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The problem is lack of capitalism not a failure of capitalism. Governments fail and ideas fail, capitalism doesn't fail.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题是缺乏资本主义，而不是资本主义的失败。政府失败了，思想失败了，资本主义不会失败。</b></blockquote></p><p> Regardless, more big government ideas are about to be tested.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，更多的大政府想法即将受到考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Prepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes<blockquote>为三件事做好准备：大政府、巨大的无用之物、巨额税收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPrepare For 3 Things: Big Government, Huge Boondoggles, Massive Taxes<blockquote>为三件事做好准备：大政府、巨大的无用之物、巨额税收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-01 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>Progressives have their eyes on on your wallet to pay for their big government schemes. And it looks like Biden will oblige them.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>进步人士盯上了你的钱包，为他们的大型政府计划买单。看起来拜登会答应他们。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>$10 Trillion for Climate and Infrastructure</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10万亿美元用于气候和基础设施</b></blockquote></p><p> The National Review reports Liberal Senators Push Biden for a&nbsp;$10 Trillion Climate and Infrastructure Bill</p><p><blockquote>《国家评论》报道自由派参议员推动拜登提出10万亿美元的气候和基础设施法案</blockquote></p><p>   On Monday, Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) unveiled a climate and infrastructure plan that called for $10 trillion in spending over the next decade. Biden’s initial campaign pledge to invest $2 trillion over four years was already inadequate to confronting climate change, and his coming proposal may be even less so, said Robert Pollin, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who helped craft the Markey-Dingell plan. Pollin said a $3 trillion investment only amounted to about 1.3 percent of America’s gross domestic product.To put the $10 trillion Markey and Dingell are proposing in perspective, over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office&nbsp;expects&nbsp;that we’ll spend $1.4 trillion on veterans’ programs, $6 trillion on Medicaid, $8.5 trillion on defense, and $8 trillion on all other non-defense discretionary spending. The Markey-Dingell bill would be higher than any of these parts of the budget, only it would come on top of all of these existing expenditures.  <b>Biden's Big Plans</b></p><p><blockquote>周一，马萨诸塞州民主党参议员爱德华·J·马基(Edward J.Markey)和密歇根州民主党众议员黛比·丁格尔(Debbie Dingell)公布了一项气候和基础设施计划，要求在未来十年内支出10万亿美元。帮助制定马基-丁格尔计划的马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校经济学家罗伯特·波林表示，拜登最初的竞选承诺在四年内投资2万亿美元已经不足以应对气候变化，他即将提出的提案可能更不足以应对气候变化。波林表示，3万亿美元的投资仅相当于美国国内生产总值的1.3%左右。为了正确看待马基和丁格尔提出的10万亿美元，国会预算办公室预计，在未来十年，我们将在退伍军人计划上花费1.4万亿美元，在医疗补助上花费6万亿美元，在国防上花费8.5万亿美元，在所有其他非国防可自由支配支出上花费8万亿美元。马基-丁格尔法案将高于预算的任何部分，只是它将出现在所有这些现有支出之上。<b>拜登的大计划</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wall Street Journal comments&nbsp;Behind Biden’s Big Plans: Belief That Government Can Drive Growth</p><p><blockquote>《华尔街日报》评论拜登大计划背后：相信政府可以推动增长</blockquote></p><p>   The Biden economic team’s ambitions go beyond size to scope. The centerpiece of their program—a multitrillion-dollar proposal to be rolled out starting Wednesday, less than a month after a $1.9 trillion stimulus—seeks to give Washington a new commercial role in matters ranging from charging stations for electric vehicles to child care, and more responsibility for underwriting education, incomes and higher-paying jobs.The administration has also laid the groundwork for regulations aimed at empowering labor unions, restricting big businesses from dominating their markets and prodding banks to lend more to minorities and less for fossil-fuel projects. All while federal debt is currently at a level not seen since World War II.It all marks a major turning point for economic policy. The gamble underlying the agenda is a belief that government can be a primary driver for growth. It’s an attempt to recalibrate assumptions that have shaped economic policy of both parties since the 1980s: that the public sector is inherently less efficient than the private, and bureaucrats should generally defer to markets.The administration’s sweeping plans reflect a calculation that “the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much,” said White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. “We’re going to be unapologetic about that,” he said. “Government must be a powerful force for good in the lives of Americans.”  <b>Crazy Thinking</b></p><p><blockquote>拜登经济团队的野心超越了规模和范围。他们计划的核心——一项数万亿美元的提案将于周三开始推出，距离1.9万亿美元的刺激计划不到一个月——旨在让华盛顿在从电动汽车充电站到儿童保育等问题上扮演新的商业角色，以及承担更多教育、收入和高薪工作的责任。政府还为旨在赋予工会权力的法规奠定了基础，限制大企业主导市场，并敦促银行增加对少数族裔的贷款，减少对化石燃料项目的贷款。与此同时，联邦债务目前处于二战以来的最高水平。这一切都标志着经济政策的一个重大转折点。议程背后的赌博是一种信念，即政府可以成为增长的主要驱动力。这是试图重新调整自20世纪80年代以来影响两党经济政策的假设：公共部门本质上不如私营部门效率，官僚通常应该尊重市场。白宫国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯表示，政府的全面计划反映了一种计算，即“做得太少的风险大于做得太多的风险”。“我们不会为此道歉，”他说。“政府必须成为美国人生活中一股强大的向善力量。”<b>疯狂的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> If you think this is crazy, you are thinking correctly.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为这很疯狂，那你就想对了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>If you don't think this is crazy, you are crazy.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果你不认为这很疯狂，那你就是疯了。</b></blockquote></p><p> The notion that government can spend money wisely and allocate resources wisely has been disproved countless times.</p><p><blockquote>政府可以明智地花钱和明智地分配资源的观念已经被无数次证明是错误的。</blockquote></p><p> Take a look at Soviet 5-year plans, Venezuela, Japan for the last three decades, or dozens of other examples.</p><p><blockquote>看看苏联的五年计划、委内瑞拉、日本过去三十年的计划，或者其他几十个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Word About Capitalism</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于资本主义的一句话</b></blockquote></p><p> The saving grace of capitalism is failure. Good ideas are rewarded, bad ideas fail.</p><p><blockquote>资本主义的可取之处是失败。好主意会有回报，坏主意会失败。</blockquote></p><p> <b>We don't have failure, we have bank bailouts, student loan bailouts, housing bailouts, and so many moral hazard market interventions by the Fed and Congress I cannot even name all the facilities or tools.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们没有失败，我们有银行救助、学生贷款救助、住房救助，以及美联储和国会如此多的道德风险市场干预，我甚至无法说出所有的设施或工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> And without failure, you don't have capitalism.&nbsp;So don't tell me that we need big government because capitalism doesn't work.</p><p><blockquote>没有失败，你就没有资本主义。所以不要告诉我我们需要大政府，因为资本主义行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The problem is lack of capitalism not a failure of capitalism. Governments fail and ideas fail, capitalism doesn't fail.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问题是缺乏资本主义，而不是资本主义的失败。政府失败了，思想失败了，资本主义不会失败。</b></blockquote></p><p> Regardless, more big government ideas are about to be tested.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，更多的大政府想法即将受到考验。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/prepare-3-things-big-government-huge-boondoggles-massive-taxes\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/prepare-3-things-big-government-huge-boondoggles-massive-taxes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176034429","content_text":"Progressives have their eyes on on your wallet to pay for their big government schemes. And it looks like Biden will oblige them.\n$10 Trillion for Climate and Infrastructure\nThe National Review reports Liberal Senators Push Biden for a $10 Trillion Climate and Infrastructure Bill\n\n On Monday, Sen. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) unveiled a climate and infrastructure plan that called for $10 trillion in spending over the next decade. Biden’s initial campaign pledge to invest $2 trillion over four years was already inadequate to confronting climate change, and his coming proposal may be even less so, said Robert Pollin, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who helped craft the Markey-Dingell plan. Pollin said a $3 trillion investment only amounted to about 1.3 percent of America’s gross domestic product.To put the $10 trillion Markey and Dingell are proposing in perspective, over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office expects that we’ll spend $1.4 trillion on veterans’ programs, $6 trillion on Medicaid, $8.5 trillion on defense, and $8 trillion on all other non-defense discretionary spending. The Markey-Dingell bill would be higher than any of these parts of the budget, only it would come on top of all of these existing expenditures.\n\nBiden's Big Plans\nThe Wall Street Journal comments Behind Biden’s Big Plans: Belief That Government Can Drive Growth\n\n The Biden economic team’s ambitions go beyond size to scope. The centerpiece of their program—a multitrillion-dollar proposal to be rolled out starting Wednesday, less than a month after a $1.9 trillion stimulus—seeks to give Washington a new commercial role in matters ranging from charging stations for electric vehicles to child care, and more responsibility for underwriting education, incomes and higher-paying jobs.The administration has also laid the groundwork for regulations aimed at empowering labor unions, restricting big businesses from dominating their markets and prodding banks to lend more to minorities and less for fossil-fuel projects. All while federal debt is currently at a level not seen since World War II.It all marks a major turning point for economic policy. The gamble underlying the agenda is a belief that government can be a primary driver for growth. It’s an attempt to recalibrate assumptions that have shaped economic policy of both parties since the 1980s: that the public sector is inherently less efficient than the private, and bureaucrats should generally defer to markets.The administration’s sweeping plans reflect a calculation that “the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much,” said White House National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. “We’re going to be unapologetic about that,” he said. “Government must be a powerful force for good in the lives of Americans.”\n\nCrazy Thinking\nIf you think this is crazy, you are thinking correctly.\nIf you don't think this is crazy, you are crazy.\nThe notion that government can spend money wisely and allocate resources wisely has been disproved countless times.\nTake a look at Soviet 5-year plans, Venezuela, Japan for the last three decades, or dozens of other examples.\nA Word About Capitalism\nThe saving grace of capitalism is failure. Good ideas are rewarded, bad ideas fail.\nWe don't have failure, we have bank bailouts, student loan bailouts, housing bailouts, and so many moral hazard market interventions by the Fed and Congress I cannot even name all the facilities or tools.\nAnd without failure, you don't have capitalism. So don't tell me that we need big government because capitalism doesn't work.\nThe problem is lack of capitalism not a failure of capitalism. Governments fail and ideas fail, capitalism doesn't fail.\nRegardless, more big government ideas are about to be tested.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346896488,"gmtCreate":1618019216444,"gmtModify":1634295211726,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment :D","listText":"Pls comment :D","text":"Pls comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346896488","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346896345,"gmtCreate":1618019182587,"gmtModify":1634295212335,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment :D","listText":"Pls comment :D","text":"Pls comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346896345","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348236387,"gmtCreate":1617931064449,"gmtModify":1634295692442,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment","listText":"Pls comment","text":"Pls comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348236387","repostId":"1124766875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348231055,"gmtCreate":1617930959277,"gmtModify":1634295694211,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment :D","listText":"Pls like and comment :D","text":"Pls like and comment :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348231055","repostId":"2126012847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370094912,"gmtCreate":1618534807436,"gmtModify":1634292274276,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","listText":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","text":"Pls like and comment :) for unlimited good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370094912","repostId":"1184470866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349614603,"gmtCreate":1617603391802,"gmtModify":1634297642182,"author":{"id":"3577935469270315","authorId":"3577935469270315","name":"chahcx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fec84ea15dbb88ff2a986853bbb3fcc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577935469270315","idStr":"3577935469270315"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls comment for unlimited good luck :D","listText":"Pls comment for unlimited good luck :D","text":"Pls comment for unlimited good luck :D","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349614603","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均值，即使有些人的投资基于历史上发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}