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11:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉没惊喜没惊吓的一季报后，还有什么可期待？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2130534418","media":"海豚投研","summary":"特斯拉于北京时间4月27日凌晨发布了2021年第一季度财报。要点如下：\n1.这是一份没有惊喜也没有惊吓的财报，收入、归母净利润以及毛利率，均符合彭博一致预期。\n2.毛利率边际提升，交出满意答卷。交付量","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>于北京时间4月27日凌晨发布了2021年第一季度财报。要点如下：</p>\n<p>1.这是一份没有惊喜也没有惊吓的财报，收入、归母净利润以及毛利率，均符合彭博一致预期。</p>\n<p>2.毛利率边际提升，交出满意答卷。交付量上升、盈利能力上行是资本市场对新造车企业最喜闻乐见的，但2020年四季度毛利率的掉头向下动摇了资本市场对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的长期信心。</p>\n<p>本季度公司毛利率21.3%，环比提升2.1pct，重新印证了特斯拉销量拉升、规模效应提升盈利能力的长期逻辑，算是一剂强心针。</p>\n<p>3.经营活动现金流和自由现金流自2014年以来首次在一季度双双转正，预期之内的财报亮点。交付量的提升不仅带来了盈利能力的改善，也改善了现金流。</p>\n<p>4.产能方面，工厂建设继续推进中，芯片供应问题已通过寻找新供应商，当前最大的不确定性因素仍聚焦在德国柏林工厂的建设进程上。</p>\n<p><b>近期特斯拉股价略显疲软态势，但资本市场仍然相信“老大哥”未来的高成长性和强大的落地执行能力，同时面对同行竞争，特斯拉强劲的交付量是硬成绩单，这是看特斯拉的基本基调。</b></p>\n<p><b>但是逐渐突破产能瓶颈的特斯拉，交付量的核心驱动因素会逐步向需求转移，海豚君希望特斯拉能妥善处理甚嚣尘上的“刹车失灵”等类似事件。</b></p>\n<p>结合业绩前瞻，本季报的核心关注点如下：</p>\n<p>汽车业务ASP下滑但规模效应深化，综合影响下毛利率等盈利指标边际如何变化？能否重回资本市场喜闻乐见的交付量上升、盈利上行的长期逻辑上？</p>\n<p>产能释放方面，特斯拉工厂建设是否有新进展？特别是德国柏林工厂的进展</p>\n<p>储能和服务业务的收入端表现如何？</p>\n<p>自动驾驶和自研电池是否有新进展？</p>\n<p><b>以下是财报内容详细分析：</b></p>\n<p><b>一、整体业绩：一份没有意外财报</b></p>\n<p><b>收入符合预期。</b>2021年一季度特斯拉营业收入103.89亿美元，同比增73.6%，环比降3.3%，营收增长的主力贡献仍是汽车销售业务，不过占比较小的储能和服务业务也维持较好的增长态势，基本符合彭博一致预期（102.97亿美元）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c937c97b9d2720d632dc59f95e21d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>净利润完美符合预期，没惊喜没惊吓。</b>2021年一季度实现GAAP归母净利润4.38亿美元，对应EPS为0.39美元/股，同比增2638%，环比增26%。</p>\n<p>在交付量提升、积分收入提升、比特币投资获利、费用上升等因素的综合影响下，完美符合彭博一致预期GAAP EPS为0.393美元/股，。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/928e3f264892f96daf94e037bd5c02ca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>核心关注指标毛利率边际改善，符合资本市场预期。</b>2021年公司整体实现毛利率21.3%，同比提升0.7pct，环比提升2.1pct。重新印证了特斯拉销量拉升、规模效应提升盈利能力的长期逻辑，算是一剂强心针。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77d583c7031dc8d842cd02a1fe4a05c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>一如既往注重研发</b>。2021年一季度公司研发费用6.7亿元，占营收的6.4%，维持高研发费用与公司看重技术领先的公司调性有关。</p>\n<p>销售管理及一般费用10.6亿元，占营收的10.2%，其中CEO绩效奖贡献约3亿元；整体经营费用16.2亿美元，占营收15.6%，同比下滑0.3pct；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e77d583c7031dc8d842cd02a1fe4a05c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>一季度自由现金流首次转正，预期之内的财报亮点。</b>由于季节性因素，特斯拉一季度经营活动现金流和自由现金流自2014年以来没有出现过同时为正的情况。</p>\n<p>2021年一季度公司经营活动现金流和自由现金流双双转正，分别为16.41亿美元和2.9亿美元，交付量大幅提升带来现金流转装，是意料之内的好转，但对于特斯拉也算是值得纪念的一刻了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1257522bc8d67721608503f1b0676f78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>二、汽车业务毛利率提升 重回量利双升的长期逻辑上</b></p>\n<p><b>交付量：Model 3和Model Y要双翼齐飞。</b>公司共生产汽车18.03万辆，环比增0.3%，交付汽车18.48万辆，继续刷新季度交付新高，环比增2.3%，也是首次实现一季度交付量环比正增长。和预期相比，特斯拉原定目标交付16-18.8万辆，算是以较高标准完成了原定计划。</p>\n<p><b>本次财报中，特斯拉坦言Model 3是目前最畅销的车型，公司目标是每年生产50万辆Model 3；而Model Y则可能在2022年成为最畅销的车型，美国工厂Model Y接近满产、中国工厂Model Y产能仍在继续爬坡、德国工厂建设推进中，为Model Y生产奠定基础。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f86739334d9b211f1117f469d5e9e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>ASP：车型结构调整继续降低公司单车收入。</b>特斯拉2021年一季度没有生产高端车型Model S/X，交付量2020辆（环比-89.3%、同比-83.4%），交付骤降、产量归零，主要系Model S/X推出改款车型，改款车型因软件问题目前尚未开始交付，预计是二季度开始交付。最终一季度我们计算口径的特斯拉单车收入为4.87万美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191ac775d1a8640ce142845e89cfcbe9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>收入：</b>整体实现汽车业务营收90亿美元，同比降3.3%。其中除了前面提到的新车交付“量增价降”之外，特斯拉本季度汽车租赁业务产生3亿美元收入，销售积分收入产生5.2亿美元。</p>\n<p><b>毛利率：如预期提升，给资本市场的一剂强心针。</b>2021年一季度公司汽车业务毛利率26.5%，环比如预期改善主要因为规模效应深化、一体化铸造简化生产制造过程等因素。</p>\n<p>降成本是特斯拉多次在财报中提及的经营理念。2019年开始随着车辆交付量的快速增长，特斯拉毛利率稳步增长，对于烧钱的造车行业，交付量上升、盈利上升是资本市场所喜闻乐见的。</p>\n<p>但特斯拉2020年四季报披露的毛利率却掉头向下，汽车业务毛利率从2020年三季度的27.7%降低至2020年四季度的24.1%，在一定程度上打击了资本市场信心。</p>\n<p><b>三、供给端产能扩张如火如荼 需求端也要跟上</b></p>\n<p>当前特斯拉交付量指引核心看产能、生产效率和供应链供应，其中产能是硬瓶颈。2019年特斯拉中国建成投产，2020年特斯拉第三个超级工厂德国柏林工厂破土动工，同时美国弗里蒙特工厂产能提升、德州工厂预计2021年年底投产，特斯拉这一轮产能扩张规划正进行地如火如荼。</p>\n<p>至于芯片问题，公司在本次财报中称“已通过寻找替代品和其他供应商解决”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eaf5988710464391fc4eae2a9788862\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>公司目前工厂产能情况如上表，而具体到对交付量的影响：</p>\n<p>特斯拉二季度交付量会受到美国弗里蒙特工厂Model S/X能否如期交付、中国上海工厂能否顺利实现Model Y的产能爬坡的影响；</p>\n<p>特斯拉下半年交付量会受到德国柏林工厂能否在2021年夏天开始投产、传闻的Model 2是否推出、美国一款跑车Roadster和两款卡车Semi和Cybertruck是否如期投产并交付。</p>\n<p>德国柏林工厂：公司本计划2021年夏天投产，但目前仍因为环保问题迟迟拿不到政府批文，预计投产会推迟。而特斯拉在欧洲的计划和在中国市场如出一辙，先通过本地化采购和生产降低成本，然后通过降价策略实现市占率提升，<b>因此柏林工厂能否按期投产对特斯拉2021年在欧洲市场的交付量影响颇大。</b></p>\n<p>海豚君认为特斯拉工厂的陆续投产，为公司开拓市场份额提供了有力支撑，而下一步特斯拉还需要考虑的是市场需求方面的问题：</p>\n<p>欧洲市场，特斯拉的本地化生产带来降价空间，前期交付量大概率会比较乐观，但能否实现中国市场的量有待商榷。欧洲和中国市场不同，德国人发明了汽车，欧洲是汽车强国聚集地，当地人对本地品牌的认可度远比中国市场对自主品牌的认可度高。</p>\n<p>中国市场，近期关于刹车失灵的消息甚嚣尘上，在一定程度上会影响特斯拉的市场需求，而特斯拉的公关对此类事件的处理也一言难尽，我们会持续跟踪特斯拉的月度销量数据来判断其市场需求的边际变化。</p>\n<p><b>四、储能和服务业务 继续期待上量带动盈利修复</b></p>\n<p><b>储能业务：</b>特斯拉储能业务包括向住宅、小型商业及大型商业和公用事业级客户出售<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>系统和储能系统，2021年一季度实现营收4.9亿美元，同比增69%，毛利率-20.4%。</p>\n<p>储能业务的长期成功和汽车业务的逻辑类似，同样取决于通过更大的交易量增加利润率，实现量利齐升。</p>\n<p>2020年加州和2021年2月德州出现的停电问题，可能会激发民众对特斯拉家庭用电解决方案的需求，目前市场需求旺盛。</p>\n<p><b>服务业务：</b>2021年特斯拉实现服务业务营收8.9亿美元，同比增60%，毛利率-7.7%。服务业务以存量车为基础，未来随着特斯拉累计销量的提升，该业务的规模效应同样会带动盈利能力的修复。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b94465123e6736f766e9ca802b15ab2e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36678b87205460e1d396e873fff24bed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>五、FSD订阅模式呼之既出</b></p>\n<p>自动驾驶一致都是特斯拉推崇的核心技术，<b>公司计划2021年推出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶FSD的订阅模式</b>，订阅模式的推出也许会解决FSD选装率较低的问题，也更加符合资本市场对特斯拉商业模式的想象。</p>\n<p>而在动力电池，特斯拉的另一项核心技术上， <b>4680电池2022年有望量产</b>。电动车汽车业务成本中，电池占比较高，特斯拉此前电池日上曾公布4680电池有望降低电池成本56%，提升续航里程54%，对特斯拉交付量和盈利能力的潜在影响值得关注。</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉没惊喜没惊吓的一季报后，还有什么可期待？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉没惊喜没惊吓的一季报后，还有什么可期待？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 11:51 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/459099.html><strong>海豚投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉于北京时间4月27日凌晨发布了2021年第一季度财报。要点如下：\n1.这是一份没有惊喜也没有惊吓的财报，收入、归母净利润以及毛利率，均符合彭博一致预期。\n2.毛利率边际提升，交出满意答卷。交付量上升、盈利能力上行是资本市场对新造车企业最喜闻乐见的，但2020年四季度毛利率的掉头向下动摇了资本市场对特斯拉的长期信心。\n本季度公司毛利率21.3%，环比提升2.1pct，重新印证了特斯拉销量拉升、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/459099.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa39b2158e334427dd055aad02b65a54","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/459099.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2130534418","content_text":"特斯拉于北京时间4月27日凌晨发布了2021年第一季度财报。要点如下：\n1.这是一份没有惊喜也没有惊吓的财报，收入、归母净利润以及毛利率，均符合彭博一致预期。\n2.毛利率边际提升，交出满意答卷。交付量上升、盈利能力上行是资本市场对新造车企业最喜闻乐见的，但2020年四季度毛利率的掉头向下动摇了资本市场对特斯拉的长期信心。\n本季度公司毛利率21.3%，环比提升2.1pct，重新印证了特斯拉销量拉升、规模效应提升盈利能力的长期逻辑，算是一剂强心针。\n3.经营活动现金流和自由现金流自2014年以来首次在一季度双双转正，预期之内的财报亮点。交付量的提升不仅带来了盈利能力的改善，也改善了现金流。\n4.产能方面，工厂建设继续推进中，芯片供应问题已通过寻找新供应商，当前最大的不确定性因素仍聚焦在德国柏林工厂的建设进程上。\n近期特斯拉股价略显疲软态势，但资本市场仍然相信“老大哥”未来的高成长性和强大的落地执行能力，同时面对同行竞争，特斯拉强劲的交付量是硬成绩单，这是看特斯拉的基本基调。\n但是逐渐突破产能瓶颈的特斯拉，交付量的核心驱动因素会逐步向需求转移，海豚君希望特斯拉能妥善处理甚嚣尘上的“刹车失灵”等类似事件。\n结合业绩前瞻，本季报的核心关注点如下：\n汽车业务ASP下滑但规模效应深化，综合影响下毛利率等盈利指标边际如何变化？能否重回资本市场喜闻乐见的交付量上升、盈利上行的长期逻辑上？\n产能释放方面，特斯拉工厂建设是否有新进展？特别是德国柏林工厂的进展\n储能和服务业务的收入端表现如何？\n自动驾驶和自研电池是否有新进展？\n以下是财报内容详细分析：\n一、整体业绩：一份没有意外财报\n收入符合预期。2021年一季度特斯拉营业收入103.89亿美元，同比增73.6%，环比降3.3%，营收增长的主力贡献仍是汽车销售业务，不过占比较小的储能和服务业务也维持较好的增长态势，基本符合彭博一致预期（102.97亿美元）。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n净利润完美符合预期，没惊喜没惊吓。2021年一季度实现GAAP归母净利润4.38亿美元，对应EPS为0.39美元/股，同比增2638%，环比增26%。\n在交付量提升、积分收入提升、比特币投资获利、费用上升等因素的综合影响下，完美符合彭博一致预期GAAP EPS为0.393美元/股，。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n核心关注指标毛利率边际改善，符合资本市场预期。2021年公司整体实现毛利率21.3%，同比提升0.7pct，环比提升2.1pct。重新印证了特斯拉销量拉升、规模效应提升盈利能力的长期逻辑，算是一剂强心针。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n一如既往注重研发。2021年一季度公司研发费用6.7亿元，占营收的6.4%，维持高研发费用与公司看重技术领先的公司调性有关。\n销售管理及一般费用10.6亿元，占营收的10.2%，其中CEO绩效奖贡献约3亿元；整体经营费用16.2亿美元，占营收15.6%，同比下滑0.3pct；\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n一季度自由现金流首次转正，预期之内的财报亮点。由于季节性因素，特斯拉一季度经营活动现金流和自由现金流自2014年以来没有出现过同时为正的情况。\n2021年一季度公司经营活动现金流和自由现金流双双转正，分别为16.41亿美元和2.9亿美元，交付量大幅提升带来现金流转装，是意料之内的好转，但对于特斯拉也算是值得纪念的一刻了。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n二、汽车业务毛利率提升 重回量利双升的长期逻辑上\n交付量：Model 3和Model Y要双翼齐飞。公司共生产汽车18.03万辆，环比增0.3%，交付汽车18.48万辆，继续刷新季度交付新高，环比增2.3%，也是首次实现一季度交付量环比正增长。和预期相比，特斯拉原定目标交付16-18.8万辆，算是以较高标准完成了原定计划。\n本次财报中，特斯拉坦言Model 3是目前最畅销的车型，公司目标是每年生产50万辆Model 3；而Model Y则可能在2022年成为最畅销的车型，美国工厂Model Y接近满产、中国工厂Model Y产能仍在继续爬坡、德国工厂建设推进中，为Model Y生产奠定基础。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\nASP：车型结构调整继续降低公司单车收入。特斯拉2021年一季度没有生产高端车型Model S/X，交付量2020辆（环比-89.3%、同比-83.4%），交付骤降、产量归零，主要系Model S/X推出改款车型，改款车型因软件问题目前尚未开始交付，预计是二季度开始交付。最终一季度我们计算口径的特斯拉单车收入为4.87万美元。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n收入：整体实现汽车业务营收90亿美元，同比降3.3%。其中除了前面提到的新车交付“量增价降”之外，特斯拉本季度汽车租赁业务产生3亿美元收入，销售积分收入产生5.2亿美元。\n毛利率：如预期提升，给资本市场的一剂强心针。2021年一季度公司汽车业务毛利率26.5%，环比如预期改善主要因为规模效应深化、一体化铸造简化生产制造过程等因素。\n降成本是特斯拉多次在财报中提及的经营理念。2019年开始随着车辆交付量的快速增长，特斯拉毛利率稳步增长，对于烧钱的造车行业，交付量上升、盈利上升是资本市场所喜闻乐见的。\n但特斯拉2020年四季报披露的毛利率却掉头向下，汽车业务毛利率从2020年三季度的27.7%降低至2020年四季度的24.1%，在一定程度上打击了资本市场信心。\n三、供给端产能扩张如火如荼 需求端也要跟上\n当前特斯拉交付量指引核心看产能、生产效率和供应链供应，其中产能是硬瓶颈。2019年特斯拉中国建成投产，2020年特斯拉第三个超级工厂德国柏林工厂破土动工，同时美国弗里蒙特工厂产能提升、德州工厂预计2021年年底投产，特斯拉这一轮产能扩张规划正进行地如火如荼。\n至于芯片问题，公司在本次财报中称“已通过寻找替代品和其他供应商解决”。\n\n数据来源：公司财报，海豚投研整理\n公司目前工厂产能情况如上表，而具体到对交付量的影响：\n特斯拉二季度交付量会受到美国弗里蒙特工厂Model S/X能否如期交付、中国上海工厂能否顺利实现Model Y的产能爬坡的影响；\n特斯拉下半年交付量会受到德国柏林工厂能否在2021年夏天开始投产、传闻的Model 2是否推出、美国一款跑车Roadster和两款卡车Semi和Cybertruck是否如期投产并交付。\n德国柏林工厂：公司本计划2021年夏天投产，但目前仍因为环保问题迟迟拿不到政府批文，预计投产会推迟。而特斯拉在欧洲的计划和在中国市场如出一辙，先通过本地化采购和生产降低成本，然后通过降价策略实现市占率提升，因此柏林工厂能否按期投产对特斯拉2021年在欧洲市场的交付量影响颇大。\n海豚君认为特斯拉工厂的陆续投产，为公司开拓市场份额提供了有力支撑，而下一步特斯拉还需要考虑的是市场需求方面的问题：\n欧洲市场，特斯拉的本地化生产带来降价空间，前期交付量大概率会比较乐观，但能否实现中国市场的量有待商榷。欧洲和中国市场不同，德国人发明了汽车，欧洲是汽车强国聚集地，当地人对本地品牌的认可度远比中国市场对自主品牌的认可度高。\n中国市场，近期关于刹车失灵的消息甚嚣尘上，在一定程度上会影响特斯拉的市场需求，而特斯拉的公关对此类事件的处理也一言难尽，我们会持续跟踪特斯拉的月度销量数据来判断其市场需求的边际变化。\n四、储能和服务业务 继续期待上量带动盈利修复\n储能业务：特斯拉储能业务包括向住宅、小型商业及大型商业和公用事业级客户出售太阳能系统和储能系统，2021年一季度实现营收4.9亿美元，同比增69%，毛利率-20.4%。\n储能业务的长期成功和汽车业务的逻辑类似，同样取决于通过更大的交易量增加利润率，实现量利齐升。\n2020年加州和2021年2月德州出现的停电问题，可能会激发民众对特斯拉家庭用电解决方案的需求，目前市场需求旺盛。\n服务业务：2021年特斯拉实现服务业务营收8.9亿美元，同比增60%，毛利率-7.7%。服务业务以存量车为基础，未来随着特斯拉累计销量的提升，该业务的规模效应同样会带动盈利能力的修复。\n\n数据来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理\n\n数据来源：公司财报、海豚投研整理\n五、FSD订阅模式呼之既出\n自动驾驶一致都是特斯拉推崇的核心技术，公司计划2021年推出智能驾驶FSD的订阅模式，订阅模式的推出也许会解决FSD选装率较低的问题，也更加符合资本市场对特斯拉商业模式的想象。\n而在动力电池，特斯拉的另一项核心技术上， 4680电池2022年有望量产。电动车汽车业务成本中，电池占比较高，特斯拉此前电池日上曾公布4680电池有望降低电池成本56%，提升续航里程54%，对特斯拉交付量和盈利能力的潜在影响值得关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377364979,"gmtCreate":1619497965291,"gmtModify":1631886600192,"author":{"id":"3578184756684851","authorId":"3578184756684851","name":"股票王者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae4977bb2f3a6ba2842a53bed18b3e7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578184756684851","authorIdStr":"3578184756684851"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a>不错不错","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a>不错不错","text":"$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$不错不错","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a7e07f62872787d14a29316a0250b12","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377364979","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377365233,"gmtCreate":1619497928922,"gmtModify":1634212258798,"author":{"id":"3578184756684851","authorId":"3578184756684851","name":"股票王者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae4977bb2f3a6ba2842a53bed18b3e7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578184756684851","authorIdStr":"3578184756684851"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以在起。","listText":"可以在起。","text":"可以在起。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c980e3ae1b77e004fdf5c6a094b3341","width":"1080","height":"3172"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377365233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377362223,"gmtCreate":1619497863562,"gmtModify":1634212259623,"author":{"id":"3578184756684851","authorId":"3578184756684851","name":"股票王者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae4977bb2f3a6ba2842a53bed18b3e7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578184756684851","authorIdStr":"3578184756684851"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377362223","repostId":"1171495583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171495583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619497808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171495583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 12:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"上汽、威马们发力SOA，是切换维度下的“弯道超车”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171495583","media":"投中网","summary":"SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。\n\n是什么成就苹果超2万亿美元的市值？\n凯文·凯利曾在演讲时指出：","content":"<blockquote>\n SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。\n</blockquote>\n<p>是什么成就苹果超2万亿美元的市值？</p>\n<p>凯文·凯利曾在演讲时指出：“未来技术革新的所在，是在主流之外的边缘地带，比如当你的拖拉机越造越好的时候，汽车也许在另一个技术层面上逆袭。这就是未来的所在。”这句话不仅诠释苹果的创新是换一种维度的突破，也无形中道出汽车产业一种可能的变革思路。</p>\n<p>后疫情时代，SDV（软件定义汽车）成为被车企们讲烂的词汇，随后还诞生出“用户定义汽车”这一说法。但是，车企更多还是想让用户好理解罢了，当变革关乎到技术研发时，必然要考虑用什么理念设计架构以承载软件，发挥SDV的真正价值。</p>\n<p>而SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。这个月，上汽还举办了全球SOA平台开发者大会。SOA架构被引入汽车，透露出行业的哪些信号？</p>\n<p><b>SOA搭“戏台”，汽车玩起“苹果APP”式革命</b></p>\n<p>SOA并不是个新名词，在汽车行业也早有尝试。蔚来、小鹏实际上已经在尝试进行一些SOA架构设计的运用，比如目前已经较为成熟的OTA功能以及远程诊断功能，都在SOA架构的运用范畴之内。</p>\n<p>拿智能手机类比，苹果手机就具有相似的架构，表现出来的形式就是向开发者开放的平台——App Store。SOA之于汽车，就好比苹果App Store之于iPhone，它将汽车的硬件能力开放出来，供软件开发者调用，以实现相应的功能。</p>\n<p>从iPhone 3G问世并向第三方开发者开放Apple Store，到如今Apple Store上已经有超过500万应用，苹果由此拥有了全球领先的软件生态。在苹果手机上为数不多的传感器、执行器支持下，iOS已能够提供百万级应用，而汽车的硬件复杂程度远超手机，将SOA平台导入其中，背后的想象空间是巨大的。</p>\n<p>一个不懂编写代码的普通用户，可以通过将车窗、音响、氛围灯等各个模块的触发条件集合到自己的APP中，生成符合用户需求的个性化场景。APP上传到应用商店再下载到车上，用户便可使用。</p>\n<p>比如，车内需要透气时，司机希望打开汽车外循环，同时两位乘客分别希望打开车窗和天窗，这样就出现三个不同的需求，而它们完全可以通过用户自我定制来实现。这只是最简单的玩法，通过多种功能组合，理论上可产生海量全新的应用，最终拓展智能汽车的能力。</p>\n<p>类似于App Store，开发者利用SOA平台向用户提供服务时，可以采用买断式或订阅式收费。开发者取得商业收益，车企也可以获得利润。只是，SOA平台尚在起步阶段，如何制定商业模式还不明朗。</p>\n<p>目前选择将整车搭建SOA平台，上汽零束、威马是为数不多的两家，而哪吒、高合有提及引入SOA理念，不过产品目前没有落地。</p>\n<p>上汽零束已经与首批开发者一起，开发了几十个智能车专属应用场景，几百个用户“千人千面”模式，以及部分典型的汽车智能化应用，目前平台的软件可以在上汽旗下R汽车和智己汽车上通用。</p>\n<p>威马在威马W6汽车中应用SOA平台，上线了自定义编程功能，自定义场景超100个，手机端与车机端同步；哪吒S也将整个系统基于SOA架构，不过产品正式上市时间可能在2022年下半年。</p>\n<p>对比这几家，上汽、威马在SOA平台上的探索是有产品落地的，其中上汽的开放进程跑得更快，威马的落地时间即汽车发布时间则稍早一些。而哪吒因为整车未公布，进度最慢。</p>\n<p>即便如此，上汽零束SOA平台的开放性都仍有大幅提升空间。「智能相对论」了解到，其平台分为三种模式，面向普通用户、第三方开发者的两种版本已对外界公布，而面向OEM和供应商的版本并未具体展示。</p>\n<p>作为走向开放的关键部分，车企想让其实现跨品牌、跨车型是最为困难的，不仅对研发工程师团队提出高要求，而且还要关系到和Tier1、其他OEM的利益权衡。这也让大家期待SOA平台时，看到了很多的困难和挑战。</p>\n<p><b>搭“戏台”不易，还怕“没人唱戏、没人捧场”</b></p>\n<p>通过SOA架构，还有一层好处是，软件的开发主导权会回归车企。随之而来的是，车企需要大量研发工作，也需要人才。</p>\n<p>业内人士告诉「智能相对论」，“架构工程师薪酬就很高，可不是开高薪就能招到的，因为这个职位对人的要求极高，他要对车和软件都有专业的理解。”</p>\n<p>在整车功能定义初期，整个SOA团队就必须要参与进来，这个无论是上汽零束、威马、哪吒，还是其他车企都要花费一大笔钱。但除开技术层面，之后还有许多现实问题存在，比如车企如何吸引开发者入驻平台？</p>\n<p>以上汽零束SOA平台为例，若要达到让更多开发者甚至普通用户，持续参与软件开发的初衷，需要降低进入门槛来扩大用户基数，帮助平台氛围活跃起来。打造好服务和功能后，再带动整个平台质量提高以吸引新的开发者，最终反哺SOA平台。一旦运转起来就会有“飞轮效应”，形成规模化。</p>\n<p>许多互联网现象都与此类似，比如外卖、拼购电商、网约车平台，商家量和用户量是相互促进、互为前提的。平台为了扩大两者规模，砸钱补贴往往是冷启动常见的做法。</p>\n<p>事实的确如此，开发者不可能一直是“为爱发电”。类似于App Store，做好激励方案是车企需要思考的问题。车企前期投入难以避免，而之后，用户、开发者、车企三者之间的利益如何划分十分重要，这关乎到平台的长期生存。</p>\n<p>还有一个关键问题是，车企如何打破边界？手机软件开发者在开发时，只需要围绕安卓和iOS两个系统，再简单进行机型适配即可。而软件上车时，有着数不清的车型、品牌。无论是上汽零束还是威马，目前平台还只是落地在旗下车型，未来开发者规模要打开新的增长空间，无疑需要更多友商融入平台。</p>\n<p>这一块的困难其实不在于平台如何“适配”友商，更在于平台如何“吸纳”友商。汽车行业当下的趋势是，传统汽车硬件、智能化硬件这类底层的东西逐渐变成开放的、标准化、有产业规模支撑的。各家的竞争反而是软件层和服务层的竞争，它们都是“友商”不愿失去的。</p>\n<p>此外，安全问题也是平台发展的必要考量。汽车上有数百个硬件可供软件调用，考虑到驾驶安全，因此汽车软件的容错率（如闪退、崩溃）要远远低于App Store。</p>\n<p>这就意味着，一些涉及汽车运动、自动驾驶的功能无法开放给用户，只能交由研发能力强的OEM自己设计。这也就产生一个矛盾的事实：“高技术准入门槛”和“吸引更多开发者”不可兼得，因为安全必须得到保证。</p>\n<p>威马表示，W6用户可以通过“威马快捷”，创建属于自己的驾驶模式，包括L2驾驶辅助系统、音乐、空调温度、座椅调整等用户偏好的软硬件设置，按照自己的喜好进行添加和设置。而上汽零束在介绍平台时，具体谈的更多也是生活、娱乐系统功能。</p>\n<p>娱乐系统功能本身的安全等级低于其他域的要求，是最为容易实现的，而ADAS域内则完全相反。所以在SOA平台发展趋势中，功能需要上汽零束、威马一步一步去推、去完善，直至完全打通。</p>\n<p><b>灵魂拷问：大家都想做，凭什么你成功？</b></p>\n<p>理想很丰满，现实却有些骨感。车企若想建立起SOA平台这条护城河，其面临的难度不可小觑。此前提及到，盯住其巨大潜能的车企已有上汽、威马，哪吒、高合也对SOA架构跃跃欲试。</p>\n<p>当然，这些只是目前已知的主机厂。包括小米、滴滴等在内，愈多科技互联网巨头开始布局智能汽车领域。从“软件定义汽车”到“用户定义汽车”成为热门，小米、滴滴们重视“SOA”是可以想象的。</p>\n<p>小米滴滴凭借在原有业务领域的硬件制造、软件运营等优势，造车算是做了一次新相关战略延伸。其中小米背后有着比传统车企更庞大的用户量，更能够支撑起SOA平台的商业化想象。</p>\n<p>小米造车的体系架构目前尚不可知，但面对其数量庞大的“米粉”们，小米无疑会重视他们的意见，很大概率会引入“SOA”。通过SOA平台，“米粉”可以生成符合自己拥车偏好及驾驶习惯的个性化场景，这与其强调“用户参与感”是相契合的。</p>\n<p>相比于友商们，上汽零束、威马的优势在于“先发”，会更早地跑出一定规模。华为智能汽车解决方案BU总裁王军在上汽开发者大会就表示，软件平台应用范围越广，边际成本越低。规模化俨然是实现盈利最根本的商业逻辑。</p>\n<p>尽管百度、腾讯、华为等多家科技互联网公司都谈到自身与上汽SOA之间的可能性合作，但它们和上汽未来更会是竞合关系，把这些东西掌握在自己手里。同样地，其他车企也会搭建自己的SOA平台，发展思路可以是向外扩张或者选择自用，但也意味着上汽、威马SOA平台失去这部分资源。</p>\n<p>可是对于小车企而言，它们会去考虑用户规模能否支撑自建平台做好商业化。若决定使用大型车企的平台，它们会去权衡哪个平台生态做得更好，这样自身产业链每一环都有望从中受益。</p>\n<p>因此，吸纳这部分小车企会是将来上汽等大型车企扩大“朋友圈”的重要方向。长期来看，随着上汽零束SOA平台逐步开放，其将会在其他品牌车上测试。无论小车企是否采用自己的平台，第一步可以先把接口标准统一，便于小车企融入生态。</p>\n<p>总的来看，电动化、智能化正在构筑起下一轮产业竞争的新赛道，而SOA平台成为一众车企抢夺声量的关键之一。人人都想做“App Store”，可最后可能只会有一个，目前上汽零束、威马等车企在“SOA”方向尚处起步阶段，未来竞争业态仍是未知。而我们需要做的则是，让车企的“子弹”再飞一会儿。</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>上汽、威马们发力SOA，是切换维度下的“弯道超车”？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n上汽、威马们发力SOA，是切换维度下的“弯道超车”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 12:30 北京时间 <a href=https://www.chinaventure.com.cn/news/78-20210427-361891.html><strong>投中网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。\n\n是什么成就苹果超2万亿美元的市值？\n凯文·凯利曾在演讲时指出：“未来技术革新的所在，是在主流之外的边缘地带，比如当你的拖拉机越造越好的时候，汽车也许在另一个技术层面上逆袭。这就是未来的所在。”这句话不仅诠释苹果的创新是换一种维度的突破，也无形中道出汽车产业一种...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.chinaventure.com.cn/news/78-20210427-361891.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.chinaventure.com.cn/news/78-20210427-361891.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171495583","content_text":"SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。\n\n是什么成就苹果超2万亿美元的市值？\n凯文·凯利曾在演讲时指出：“未来技术革新的所在，是在主流之外的边缘地带，比如当你的拖拉机越造越好的时候，汽车也许在另一个技术层面上逆袭。这就是未来的所在。”这句话不仅诠释苹果的创新是换一种维度的突破，也无形中道出汽车产业一种可能的变革思路。\n后疫情时代，SDV（软件定义汽车）成为被车企们讲烂的词汇，随后还诞生出“用户定义汽车”这一说法。但是，车企更多还是想让用户好理解罢了，当变革关乎到技术研发时，必然要考虑用什么理念设计架构以承载软件，发挥SDV的真正价值。\n而SOA理念可能就是这次变革的马前卒，可以让这场变革更加水到渠成。今年开始，上汽、威马、岚图、哪吒等谈及智能汽车时，都有提及SOA架构。这个月，上汽还举办了全球SOA平台开发者大会。SOA架构被引入汽车，透露出行业的哪些信号？\nSOA搭“戏台”，汽车玩起“苹果APP”式革命\nSOA并不是个新名词，在汽车行业也早有尝试。蔚来、小鹏实际上已经在尝试进行一些SOA架构设计的运用，比如目前已经较为成熟的OTA功能以及远程诊断功能，都在SOA架构的运用范畴之内。\n拿智能手机类比，苹果手机就具有相似的架构，表现出来的形式就是向开发者开放的平台——App Store。SOA之于汽车，就好比苹果App Store之于iPhone，它将汽车的硬件能力开放出来，供软件开发者调用，以实现相应的功能。\n从iPhone 3G问世并向第三方开发者开放Apple Store，到如今Apple Store上已经有超过500万应用，苹果由此拥有了全球领先的软件生态。在苹果手机上为数不多的传感器、执行器支持下，iOS已能够提供百万级应用，而汽车的硬件复杂程度远超手机，将SOA平台导入其中，背后的想象空间是巨大的。\n一个不懂编写代码的普通用户，可以通过将车窗、音响、氛围灯等各个模块的触发条件集合到自己的APP中，生成符合用户需求的个性化场景。APP上传到应用商店再下载到车上，用户便可使用。\n比如，车内需要透气时，司机希望打开汽车外循环，同时两位乘客分别希望打开车窗和天窗，这样就出现三个不同的需求，而它们完全可以通过用户自我定制来实现。这只是最简单的玩法，通过多种功能组合，理论上可产生海量全新的应用，最终拓展智能汽车的能力。\n类似于App Store，开发者利用SOA平台向用户提供服务时，可以采用买断式或订阅式收费。开发者取得商业收益，车企也可以获得利润。只是，SOA平台尚在起步阶段，如何制定商业模式还不明朗。\n目前选择将整车搭建SOA平台，上汽零束、威马是为数不多的两家，而哪吒、高合有提及引入SOA理念，不过产品目前没有落地。\n上汽零束已经与首批开发者一起，开发了几十个智能车专属应用场景，几百个用户“千人千面”模式，以及部分典型的汽车智能化应用，目前平台的软件可以在上汽旗下R汽车和智己汽车上通用。\n威马在威马W6汽车中应用SOA平台，上线了自定义编程功能，自定义场景超100个，手机端与车机端同步；哪吒S也将整个系统基于SOA架构，不过产品正式上市时间可能在2022年下半年。\n对比这几家，上汽、威马在SOA平台上的探索是有产品落地的，其中上汽的开放进程跑得更快，威马的落地时间即汽车发布时间则稍早一些。而哪吒因为整车未公布，进度最慢。\n即便如此，上汽零束SOA平台的开放性都仍有大幅提升空间。「智能相对论」了解到，其平台分为三种模式，面向普通用户、第三方开发者的两种版本已对外界公布，而面向OEM和供应商的版本并未具体展示。\n作为走向开放的关键部分，车企想让其实现跨品牌、跨车型是最为困难的，不仅对研发工程师团队提出高要求，而且还要关系到和Tier1、其他OEM的利益权衡。这也让大家期待SOA平台时，看到了很多的困难和挑战。\n搭“戏台”不易，还怕“没人唱戏、没人捧场”\n通过SOA架构，还有一层好处是，软件的开发主导权会回归车企。随之而来的是，车企需要大量研发工作，也需要人才。\n业内人士告诉「智能相对论」，“架构工程师薪酬就很高，可不是开高薪就能招到的，因为这个职位对人的要求极高，他要对车和软件都有专业的理解。”\n在整车功能定义初期，整个SOA团队就必须要参与进来，这个无论是上汽零束、威马、哪吒，还是其他车企都要花费一大笔钱。但除开技术层面，之后还有许多现实问题存在，比如车企如何吸引开发者入驻平台？\n以上汽零束SOA平台为例，若要达到让更多开发者甚至普通用户，持续参与软件开发的初衷，需要降低进入门槛来扩大用户基数，帮助平台氛围活跃起来。打造好服务和功能后，再带动整个平台质量提高以吸引新的开发者，最终反哺SOA平台。一旦运转起来就会有“飞轮效应”，形成规模化。\n许多互联网现象都与此类似，比如外卖、拼购电商、网约车平台，商家量和用户量是相互促进、互为前提的。平台为了扩大两者规模，砸钱补贴往往是冷启动常见的做法。\n事实的确如此，开发者不可能一直是“为爱发电”。类似于App Store，做好激励方案是车企需要思考的问题。车企前期投入难以避免，而之后，用户、开发者、车企三者之间的利益如何划分十分重要，这关乎到平台的长期生存。\n还有一个关键问题是，车企如何打破边界？手机软件开发者在开发时，只需要围绕安卓和iOS两个系统，再简单进行机型适配即可。而软件上车时，有着数不清的车型、品牌。无论是上汽零束还是威马，目前平台还只是落地在旗下车型，未来开发者规模要打开新的增长空间，无疑需要更多友商融入平台。\n这一块的困难其实不在于平台如何“适配”友商，更在于平台如何“吸纳”友商。汽车行业当下的趋势是，传统汽车硬件、智能化硬件这类底层的东西逐渐变成开放的、标准化、有产业规模支撑的。各家的竞争反而是软件层和服务层的竞争，它们都是“友商”不愿失去的。\n此外，安全问题也是平台发展的必要考量。汽车上有数百个硬件可供软件调用，考虑到驾驶安全，因此汽车软件的容错率（如闪退、崩溃）要远远低于App Store。\n这就意味着，一些涉及汽车运动、自动驾驶的功能无法开放给用户，只能交由研发能力强的OEM自己设计。这也就产生一个矛盾的事实：“高技术准入门槛”和“吸引更多开发者”不可兼得，因为安全必须得到保证。\n威马表示，W6用户可以通过“威马快捷”，创建属于自己的驾驶模式，包括L2驾驶辅助系统、音乐、空调温度、座椅调整等用户偏好的软硬件设置，按照自己的喜好进行添加和设置。而上汽零束在介绍平台时，具体谈的更多也是生活、娱乐系统功能。\n娱乐系统功能本身的安全等级低于其他域的要求，是最为容易实现的，而ADAS域内则完全相反。所以在SOA平台发展趋势中，功能需要上汽零束、威马一步一步去推、去完善，直至完全打通。\n灵魂拷问：大家都想做，凭什么你成功？\n理想很丰满，现实却有些骨感。车企若想建立起SOA平台这条护城河，其面临的难度不可小觑。此前提及到，盯住其巨大潜能的车企已有上汽、威马，哪吒、高合也对SOA架构跃跃欲试。\n当然，这些只是目前已知的主机厂。包括小米、滴滴等在内，愈多科技互联网巨头开始布局智能汽车领域。从“软件定义汽车”到“用户定义汽车”成为热门，小米、滴滴们重视“SOA”是可以想象的。\n小米滴滴凭借在原有业务领域的硬件制造、软件运营等优势，造车算是做了一次新相关战略延伸。其中小米背后有着比传统车企更庞大的用户量，更能够支撑起SOA平台的商业化想象。\n小米造车的体系架构目前尚不可知，但面对其数量庞大的“米粉”们，小米无疑会重视他们的意见，很大概率会引入“SOA”。通过SOA平台，“米粉”可以生成符合自己拥车偏好及驾驶习惯的个性化场景，这与其强调“用户参与感”是相契合的。\n相比于友商们，上汽零束、威马的优势在于“先发”，会更早地跑出一定规模。华为智能汽车解决方案BU总裁王军在上汽开发者大会就表示，软件平台应用范围越广，边际成本越低。规模化俨然是实现盈利最根本的商业逻辑。\n尽管百度、腾讯、华为等多家科技互联网公司都谈到自身与上汽SOA之间的可能性合作，但它们和上汽未来更会是竞合关系，把这些东西掌握在自己手里。同样地，其他车企也会搭建自己的SOA平台，发展思路可以是向外扩张或者选择自用，但也意味着上汽、威马SOA平台失去这部分资源。\n可是对于小车企而言，它们会去考虑用户规模能否支撑自建平台做好商业化。若决定使用大型车企的平台，它们会去权衡哪个平台生态做得更好，这样自身产业链每一环都有望从中受益。\n因此，吸纳这部分小车企会是将来上汽等大型车企扩大“朋友圈”的重要方向。长期来看，随着上汽零束SOA平台逐步开放，其将会在其他品牌车上测试。无论小车企是否采用自己的平台，第一步可以先把接口标准统一，便于小车企融入生态。\n总的来看，电动化、智能化正在构筑起下一轮产业竞争的新赛道，而SOA平台成为一众车企抢夺声量的关键之一。人人都想做“App Store”，可最后可能只会有一个，目前上汽零束、威马等车企在“SOA”方向尚处起步阶段，未来竞争业态仍是未知。而我们需要做的则是，让车企的“子弹”再飞一会儿。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":377366875,"gmtCreate":1619497746797,"gmtModify":1634212260600,"author":{"id":"3578184756684851","authorId":"3578184756684851","name":"股票王者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae4977bb2f3a6ba2842a53bed18b3e7","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578184756684851","authorIdStr":"3578184756684851"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> 昨晚买今天起开心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a> 昨晚买今天起开心","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$ 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5游戏机的强劲需求导致产量增加，半定制业务的收入将从中受益。</p>\n<p>此外，AMD还可能从Ryzen、Radeon和半定制处理器的稳定势头中获益。受在家办公和在线教育趋势的推动，这些处理器正在云、游戏、PC和数据中心垂直领域大量使用。</p>\n<p>Zacks指出，由于来自英伟达(NVDA.US)和英特尔(INTC.US)竞争的日益激烈，产品开发费用的增加可能会对一季度的利润率的增长产生不利影响。</p>\n<p>华尔街对AMD的看法</p>\n<p>Raymond James的分析师Chris Caso给予AMD“强于大市”评级和目标价100美元。该分析师认为最新的技术路线图显示，至少到2024年，AMD和其代工合作伙伴<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的生产工艺都将领先英特尔。</p>\n<p>投行Northland分析师Gus Richard则重申AMD了的“增持”评级和目标价96美元。他认为台积电的技术在可预见的未来将巩固AMD在x86工艺技术的领先地位。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PC需求持续强劲，AMD一季度业绩能否保持高增长</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPC需求持续强劲，AMD一季度业绩能否保持高增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-26 22:10 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457706.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMD将于4月27日美股盘后（北京时间4月28日清晨）公布2021财年第一季度业绩。\n业绩预期\n市场预期AMD第一季度营收为32亿美元，同比增长62%，预计每股收益为0.44美元，同比增长143%。\n继续受益于PC的需求增长\nIDC和Gartner的数据显示，个人电脑的年增长率分别为55%和32%。德银分析师Ross Seymore认为，AMD的C&G(计算和图形)业务可能会带来惊喜，“尽管其增长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457706.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/457706.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1118351228","content_text":"AMD将于4月27日美股盘后（北京时间4月28日清晨）公布2021财年第一季度业绩。\n业绩预期\n市场预期AMD第一季度营收为32亿美元，同比增长62%，预计每股收益为0.44美元，同比增长143%。\n继续受益于PC的需求增长\nIDC和Gartner的数据显示，个人电脑的年增长率分别为55%和32%。德银分析师Ross Seymore认为，AMD的C&G(计算和图形)业务可能会带来惊喜，“尽管其增长会受到持续的代工供应限制。”\nSeymore表示，根据英伟达和英特尔公布的财报来看（两家公司的财报都超出了市场预期），AMD将继续从服务器CPU、游戏机、笔记本/台式机CPU和散装显卡的持续强劲需求中受益。在过去的一年里，AMD从居家办公的趋势中受益。任何担心随着重新开放，这股推动力会消退的想法显然是错误的。\n半定制处理器将推动公司业绩\n研究机构Zacks预计AMD Q1的业绩将受益于其EPYC处理器的强劲表现。EPYC处理器已经在云计算、企业和高性能计算(HPC)客户中得到了广泛的应用。其EPYC处理器的强势可能对即将公布的季度服务器收入增长产生了积极影响。\n在EESC(企业、嵌入式和半定制)业务方面，AMD预计，由于对Xbox系列X、Xbox系列S和PlayStation 5游戏机的强劲需求导致产量增加，半定制业务的收入将从中受益。\n此外，AMD还可能从Ryzen、Radeon和半定制处理器的稳定势头中获益。受在家办公和在线教育趋势的推动，这些处理器正在云、游戏、PC和数据中心垂直领域大量使用。\nZacks指出，由于来自英伟达(NVDA.US)和英特尔(INTC.US)竞争的日益激烈，产品开发费用的增加可能会对一季度的利润率的增长产生不利影响。\n华尔街对AMD的看法\nRaymond James的分析师Chris Caso给予AMD“强于大市”评级和目标价100美元。该分析师认为最新的技术路线图显示，至少到2024年，AMD和其代工合作伙伴台积电的生产工艺都将领先英特尔。\n投行Northland分析师Gus 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