Apipu的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Apipu

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

75关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-09

$Senseonics(SENS)$waiting for the earnings

2021-08-13

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$hold or sell?

2021-04-17

$Senseonics(SENS)$can anyone share with me what's the reason for the recent plunge? Has there been any negative news on the company recently?

2021-05-19

$Senseonics(SENS)$up up up!

2021-06-02

Like and comment please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-22

Like and comment plssss

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

$Senseonics(SENS)$sooooo goood

2021-10-15

$Vale SA(VALE)$😭😭

2021-08-05

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-05-19

Cool

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-05

$Vale SA(VALE)$what is a good entry price?

2021-09-27

Hais

Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>

2021-04-14

$Apple(AAPL)$keep rising!!

2021-08-06

Waiting for Friday report

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-06

At least 3800 before year end

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-14

$Senseonics(SENS)$Waiting for earningssss

2021-10-12

$Vale SA(VALE)$[流泪]

2021-08-19

Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter

2021-06-02

Pls like and comment. Thank you!

Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>

2021-05-19

👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3578306475134606","uuid":"3578306475134606","gmtCreate":1615249820054,"gmtModify":1704447507059,"name":"Apipu","pinyin":"apipu","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":75,"tweetSize":77,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.05","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.44%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.47%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":699355004,"gmtCreate":1639752085310,"gmtModify":1639752292204,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$Carnival(CCL)$</a>waitingggg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$Carnival(CCL)$</a>waitingggg","text":"$Carnival(CCL)$waitingggg","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ff8e08a017614e780722df38ce4359","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699355004","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850178370,"gmtCreate":1634567677752,"gmtModify":1634567743465,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">$Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$</a>waiting","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">$Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$</a>waiting","text":"$Norwegian Cruise Line(NCLH)$waiting","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf44a8c80e650f5a99cc35fb95b9a78","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850178370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825718676,"gmtCreate":1634257614414,"gmtModify":1634274403521,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>😭😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>😭😭","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$😭😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d73cdf297a53b7a75cc7e95ba6c510","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825718676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826443776,"gmtCreate":1634049227204,"gmtModify":1634049266138,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56eba918eaaac9116dbb0ad67248708","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826443776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829553584,"gmtCreate":1633528945838,"gmtModify":1633528945994,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>waiting","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>waiting","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$waiting","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f928d8d43f8c0689829930ce497090c6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829553584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829033650,"gmtCreate":1633441757731,"gmtModify":1633441758430,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>what is a good entry price?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>what is a good entry price?","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$what is a good entry price?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7003c878ed370d05472305a08a912cb1","width":"1080","height":"3115"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829033650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862746233,"gmtCreate":1632919370063,"gmtModify":1632919372311,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862746233","repostId":"2171841989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862684075,"gmtCreate":1632875822361,"gmtModify":1632875822361,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>hedge risk against increasing intetest rate","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>hedge risk against increasing intetest rate","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$hedge risk against increasing intetest rate","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/134d46f419c2d61691c6f3278b682232","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862684075","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862199967,"gmtCreate":1632841526776,"gmtModify":1632841526842,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOS\">$Canada Goose(GOOS)$</a>winter is coming","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOS\">$Canada Goose(GOOS)$</a>winter is coming","text":"$Canada Goose(GOOS)$winter is coming","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88d47777581ca81fabe92e1640651e98","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862199967","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862190361,"gmtCreate":1632841454490,"gmtModify":1632841454571,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862190361","repostId":"1152246777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152246777","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632839983,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152246777?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 22:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152246777","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous mile","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度财报，苹果有望迎来井喷的一年，从总收入到净利润都打破了之前的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大的价值。</li><li>与同行相比，苹果公司看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的眼光，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道明</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：一切金钱</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资苹果公司永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 22:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度财报，苹果有望迎来井喷的一年，从总收入到净利润都打破了之前的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大的价值。</li><li>与同行相比，苹果公司看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的眼光，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资眼光，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票的时机并不糟糕。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到5000亿美元、1万亿美元还是2万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，AAPL都突破了障碍。未来，我们将讨论AAPL市值达到5万亿美元。不要把AAPL看作是一家经历了几次股票分割并成长为一家价值2.43万亿美元的公司。AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，在过去12个月(TTM)中产生了947.7亿美元的自由现金流(FCF)，5年平均FCF为674.9亿美元。看看AAPL，它的毛利率为41.66%，利润率为26.24%，与TTM中868亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看AAPL在过去十年中为其股东所做的事情，他们回购了95.9亿股股票，占公司36.58%的股份，同时支付了1,134亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了苹果公司之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买苹果公司股票的时机永远不会太糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：道明</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果的股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我在Seeking Alpha上撰写了有关AAPL的文章，并阅读了许多其他有关AAPL的文章。总是有人评论Tim Cook（苹果首席执行官）和Luca Maestri（苹果首席财务官）无能，对公司财务管理不善，回购毫无用处。我从未见过管理团队和董事会像苹果公司的团队那样关心他们的股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL已通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。据我所知，没有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这笔金额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由增发股票，否则在我看来，这是最大的危险信号之一，因为当前股东的所有权被稀释了。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股已发行股票，而您持有100股，则您拥有该公司1%的股份。如果ABC发行2,500股来筹集资金，那么现在有12,500股已发行股票，您在公司的所有权自动稀释至0.80%。如果ABC利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行2,500股，而是在公开市场上回购2,500股，那么ABC将剩下7,500股已发行股票。您在ABC的股权将会增加，因为您的100股股票现在相当于该公司的1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分布在更少的股票上。假设，如果ABC产生1,000，000美元的收入和100,000美元的收益，基于10,000股，每股ABC将产生100美元的收入和10美元的每股收益。通过发行更多股票并使已发行股票达到12,500股，每股现在将产生80美元的收入和8美元的每股收益。通过回购2,500股而不是发行2,500股，ABC现在将产生133.33美元的收入和13.33美元的每股收益，因为他们只有7,500股已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当AAPL回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加AAPL所持股份的百分比来回报股东。AAPL产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回馈股东通过回购和股息产生的部分现金来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL的TTM自由现金流每年从416.8亿美元增加到947.7亿美元。2021财年远高于AAPL前几年，因此如果使用5年平均水平，FCF每年从416.8亿美元增加到674.9亿美元。苹果公司的回购不是操纵，也不应被视为财务管理不善。过去7个季度，AAPL以平均每季度197.1亿美元的速度回购了1380亿美元的股票。每个季度AAPL都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股权头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该值得庆祝，因为苹果公司创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：一切金钱</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用所产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股权稀释的一个完美例子。截至2011年底，TSLA已发行普通股总数为5.227亿股。截至上次报告，TSLA拥有9.84亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉股东权益稀释了88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了1.762亿股新股，同期股东权益稀释了21.81%。发行股票并不总是负面的，公平地说，对于特斯拉来说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA的TTM收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增长了10,585%。尽管TSLA在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中被稀释了88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2011年4月28日，AAPL宣布，其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。基于目前2.43万亿美元的估值，AAPL董事会增加了足够的资本，可以在公开市场上额外回购3.7%的股份。根据过去十年的数据，AAPL将继续对股东友好，因为他们的资本配置力度随着FFC的增加而增加。我很震惊有人会考虑这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。AAPL每个季度都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的AAPL股权百分比。AAPL通过回购增加股东价值所表现出的奉献精神是股东可以继续期待的，因为AAPL在每一个历史新高的股价中都不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值对于新投资来说已经成熟，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>21年6月28日，AAPL的股价为134.78美元，21年9月7日达到156.68美元。此后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在9/20/21跌至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。截至9/24321交易结束时，AAPL股价已从近期低点反弹，收于146.92美元。在浏览了AAPL的指标并回顾了1年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，苹果公司的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在21年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在21年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏天，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL的每次回调都创下了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL也创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，苹果公司有望报告其运营最好的一年，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜。市销率是将股价与每股产生的收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL的市盈率为7.13，而MSFT的市盈率为13.44，GOOGL的市盈率为8.71。GOOGL的市盈率为3.89，是该集团中最低的。市盈率用于评估公司股价与其产生的收益的关系，并表明投资者愿意为每1美元收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL的市盈率为28.53，而MSFT为36.87，AMZN为58.54，GOOGL为30.48。我通过股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL的市盈率为135.04%，而MSFT为43.15%，AMZN为25.64%，GOOGL为26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL的自由现金流倍数为25.64倍，MSFT的自由现金流倍数为40.09倍，AMZN的自由现金流倍数为244.80倍，GOOGL的自由现金流倍数为32.46倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下加入的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回调时，她买了更多的苹果公司。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买AAPL的股票，我相信他也在回调期间借此机会增持了AAPL。我认为AAPL仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL的市盈率仅为其自由现金流的25.64倍，市盈率为28.53，而市场平均水平为34.75。苹果公司在从其股权中产生利润方面做得令人难以置信，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；什么不喜欢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对10月底报告的AAPL 2021年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度于每年9月30日结束。当AAPL在10月底公布收益时，他们将报告第四季度和2021财年的数据。苹果公司为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL的收入为2825.6亿美元，毛利润为1176.6亿美元，净利润为741.3亿美元。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别上都超过了2020财年。AAPL预测2021年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使他们第四季度的收入至少达到711.6亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果AAPL能够将40%的收入转化为毛利润，25%转化为净利润，那么到2021年，他们的收入将达到3537.2亿美元，毛利润为1461.2亿美元，净利润为919.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我认为每一项投资都是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对看涨期权第四季度收益和2022财年的预测有什么看法。看看我在下面构建的图表，AAPL在2016年和2017年有一段时间的收入低于2015年，然后才加速增长。假设如果AAPL的收入碰巧在一两年内达到峰值，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对AAPL有长期投资视野。2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入2021年底，AAPL将报告井喷的一年，我们将得到一些对2022年的预测。AAPL董事会将股票回购计划增加了900亿美元，没有迹象表明AAPL正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是一个买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入AAPL股票的机会。AAPL产生的自由现金流是我见过的所有公司中最多的，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，苹果公司值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为AAPL将于10月底公布第四季度收益和创纪录的2021年收益。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入可能同比增长28.85%，净利润可能同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和自由现金流价格明显低于MSFT、AMZN和GOOGL。苹果公司通过将一定比例的自由现金流分配给回购和股息，继续为股东创造价值。AAPL不断创新，发布了新产品，继续发展其服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划增加了900亿美元。我相信AAPL是一项出色的长期投资，当前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152246777","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.\nApple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.\nCompared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nI don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.\nSource: TD\nUnderstanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders\nI have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always comments about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.\nSource: Apple\nWhy are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.\nWhen AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.\nSource: Everything Money\nI recently wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.\nApple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback\nShares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the four largest companies in the S&P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.\nSource: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?\nWhat are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?\nAAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.\nI look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)\nConclusion\nAAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868785006,"gmtCreate":1632705647605,"gmtModify":1632798439682,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hais","listText":"Hais","text":"Hais","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868785006","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868786825,"gmtCreate":1632705572867,"gmtModify":1632798441378,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>🥲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a>🥲","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$🥲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444d17c252be8a1e4bb9297540efd50b","width":"1080","height":"2126"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868786825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868860453,"gmtCreate":1632629770272,"gmtModify":1632649205088,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$[流泪] [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c262363e9781b049a037a2f7fecf6a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868860453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817566045,"gmtCreate":1630975767787,"gmtModify":1631883819049,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C2PU.SI\">$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$</a>waiting for a good entry price","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C2PU.SI\">$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$</a>waiting for a good entry price","text":"$PARKWAYLIFE REIT(C2PU.SI)$waiting for a good entry price","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17e0c999d76c32d6ce61e32ee575e8ad","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817566045","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838165764,"gmtCreate":1629381447158,"gmtModify":1631890337983,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","listText":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","text":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8683b607c2ddcd1cb6390561aca864e7","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838165764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833815391,"gmtCreate":1629215246413,"gmtModify":1631889148067,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$</a>finally","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$</a>finally","text":"$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$finally","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68f277f5f0019b827bf5848c2cf38a65","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833815391","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839167946,"gmtCreate":1629127693385,"gmtModify":1631890337985,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Still waiting for a good entry point to ride along future increase in interest rate&nbsp;","listText":"Still waiting for a good entry point to ride along future increase in interest rate&nbsp;","text":"Still waiting for a good entry point to ride along future increase in interest rate","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59efe85fc2c0ad636755a0d25aae36e8","width":"1080","height":"2126"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839167946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839164001,"gmtCreate":1629127613103,"gmtModify":1631883808088,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>buy tto hedge my consumer product stocks","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>buy tto hedge my consumer product stocks","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$buy tto hedge my consumer product stocks","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73f58cb348bbee5ba219bb8c6e30ff06","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839164001","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830957318,"gmtCreate":1629004254534,"gmtModify":1631890337988,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upupupup","listText":"Upupupup","text":"Upupupup","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cc5a6a6c968e387dfc35954c76cfff","width":"1080","height":"2213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830957318","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830954296,"gmtCreate":1629004185915,"gmtModify":1631883808108,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578306475134606","idStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>hold?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>hold?","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$hold?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a72d2e667fe10b459c33ff4eba8e238","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830954296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":898267695,"gmtCreate":1628502216317,"gmtModify":1631884679501,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>waiting for the earnings","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>waiting for the earnings","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$waiting for the earnings","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf70892bf0433d25de800e7403cb5d3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898267695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897082956,"gmtCreate":1628863169275,"gmtModify":1631883808117,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>hold or sell?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>hold or sell?","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$hold or sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c052bc79afa05bc0d5ccb76fe56f9f3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897082956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370242287,"gmtCreate":1618590736649,"gmtModify":1631885010939,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>can anyone share with me what's the reason for the recent plunge? Has there been any negative news on the company recently?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>can anyone share with me what's the reason for the recent plunge? Has there been any negative news on the company recently?","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$can anyone share with me what's the reason for the recent plunge? Has there been any negative news on the company recently?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370242287","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194861798,"gmtCreate":1621354580914,"gmtModify":1631885010504,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>up up up!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>up up up!","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$up up up!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb5d953145e816c02f3390dbadd14990","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194861798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111021783,"gmtCreate":1622645153242,"gmtModify":1634099612110,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111021783","repostId":"2140417257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139665854,"gmtCreate":1621615404078,"gmtModify":1634187622134,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment plssss","listText":"Like and comment plssss","text":"Like and comment plssss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139665854","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186184385,"gmtCreate":1623478559947,"gmtModify":1631885009726,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>sooooo goood","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>sooooo goood","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$sooooo goood","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca22126f613d9793ca1d1fdfa9f13e7","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186184385","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":825718676,"gmtCreate":1634257614414,"gmtModify":1634274403521,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>😭😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>😭😭","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$😭😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d73cdf297a53b7a75cc7e95ba6c510","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825718676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":899802238,"gmtCreate":1628171994024,"gmtModify":1631883808165,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc3cd076738408a6eb74fd753a6a49bd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899802238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3483950792496874","authorId":"3483950792496874","name":"喝酒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3483950792496874","authorIdStr":"3483950792496874"},"content":"赶紧割肉吧，要不马上就跌到10块了，腰斩","text":"赶紧割肉吧，要不马上就跌到10块了，腰斩","html":"赶紧割肉吧，要不马上就跌到10块了，腰斩"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197890730,"gmtCreate":1621437407420,"gmtModify":1634189139541,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197890730","repostId":"1134860607","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":829033650,"gmtCreate":1633441757731,"gmtModify":1633441758430,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>what is a good entry price?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>what is a good entry price?","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$what is a good entry price?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7003c878ed370d05472305a08a912cb1","width":"1080","height":"3115"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829033650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868785006,"gmtCreate":1632705647605,"gmtModify":1632798439682,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hais","listText":"Hais","text":"Hais","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868785006","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345489804,"gmtCreate":1618329614408,"gmtModify":1634293653370,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>keep rising!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>keep rising!!","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$keep rising!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/621f17872cc20969274e2d922c5bac36","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345489804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893092009,"gmtCreate":1628219093401,"gmtModify":1631890338002,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for Friday report","listText":"Waiting for Friday report","text":"Waiting for Friday report","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893092009","repostId":"2157456017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157244608,"gmtCreate":1625585348804,"gmtModify":1631893414258,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"At least 3800 before year end","listText":"At least 3800 before year end","text":"At least 3800 before year end","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157244608","repostId":"1129630404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":198393867,"gmtCreate":1620922972459,"gmtModify":1631885010554,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Waiting for earningssss","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SENS\">$Senseonics(SENS)$</a>Waiting for earningssss","text":"$Senseonics(SENS)$Waiting for earningssss","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fc061a42f1d43112abd48d1c4481a2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198393867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":826443776,"gmtCreate":1634049227204,"gmtModify":1634049266138,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">$Vale SA(VALE)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$Vale SA(VALE)$[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56eba918eaaac9116dbb0ad67248708","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826443776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838165764,"gmtCreate":1629381447158,"gmtModify":1631890337983,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","listText":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","text":"Waiting for a good entry point to prepare for Winter","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8683b607c2ddcd1cb6390561aca864e7","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838165764","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111064315,"gmtCreate":1622644948237,"gmtModify":1634099616068,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thank you!","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thank you!","text":"Pls like and comment. Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111064315","repostId":"1139790754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139790754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622642200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139790754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139790754","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free ca","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139790754","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.\nLagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.\nAfter lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.\n\nPhoto by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images\nShort-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.\nAlthough Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.\nCOVID Beneficiary\nAmazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it acquired Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?\nIn 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:\n\n3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.\nOnline stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.\n\nIn 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:\n\nSubscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.\nAWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.\n\nPhysical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.\nThe COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.\nThe company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.\nGAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.\nWhere Is My Money?\nAlthough revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.\nThis because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.\nOn top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon announced the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.\nThe Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle\nIn my 2017 article,Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.\nBack in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.\nRelax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.\nWe can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-cumulatively.\nBy 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.\nWall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.\nThe Market Opportunity\nSome investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.\nThe market opportunity, however, is much more massive.\nAmazon's share of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.\nAmazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is sized at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.\nA large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.\nAnother areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.\nThe global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.\nIf Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.\nManagement does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.\nAmazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.\nBut we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.\nValuation\nLike most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.\nCurrently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&P 500, the lowest in 5 years.\nOn free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.\nTakeaway\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194866901,"gmtCreate":1621354752303,"gmtModify":1634192173838,"author":{"id":"3578306475134606","authorId":"3578306475134606","name":"Apipu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578306475134606","authorIdStr":"3578306475134606"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194866901","repostId":"2136785993","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}