Onlyme的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Onlyme

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

169关注

15粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-24

Like plz

Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>

2021-12-21

Like pl

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-21

Apesss where are u

Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>AMC 的空头会在 2022 年无路可走吗？</blockquote>

2021-12-17

I am deep in red for AMC and GME. Help

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-17

Like plz

3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote>

2021-12-04

Pls like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-28

Like please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-28

Like please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-28

Like please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-24

Like please

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-22

Like please

Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote>

2021-11-11

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Apes, when is the short squeeze coming?

2021-11-11

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ouch, any advice?

2021-11-10

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what is a good buy in price for palantir

2021-11-10

$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$love CAN, going HODL

2021-11-09

$Naked Brand(NAKD)$lets go naked!!

2021-11-09

$Naked Brand(NAKD)$i held this for so long, finally some movement!!

2021-11-08

$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$what is CAN going to moon??

2021-11-05

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$PTON drop so much, isit buy the dip?

2021-11-05

$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$oops not beyond meat but beyond my loss :(

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3578395069533223","uuid":"3578395069533223","gmtCreate":1615301135164,"gmtModify":1615301135164,"name":"Onlyme","pinyin":"onlyme","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":15,"headSize":169,"tweetSize":119,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.08.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.23","exceedPercentage":"60.67%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.94%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":698139375,"gmtCreate":1640315010830,"gmtModify":1640315800723,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698139375","repostId":"1183390970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183390970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640313641,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183390970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183390970","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side t","content":"<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Wall Street Lines Up Behind $3 Trillion Bull Case<blockquote>苹果股票：华尔街支持 3 万亿美元牛市案例</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街继续支持苹果股票的牛市。我们回顾了最近的卖方观点，并评估现在是否是逢低买入 AAPL 的时机。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below&nbsp;my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的股票在过去几周里上下波动，现在的交易价格约为每股 8 美元，低于我最近的 “削减头寸 ”价位。但缺乏动力并没有困扰华尔街分析师，他们越来越相信苹果的市值将在未来 12 个月内达到 3 万亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>今天，苹果专家浏览了最近发布的卖方报告，并评估了库比蒂诺公司股票日益强劲的牛市情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dea165a4c3f8375b37ab1560d20bec\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"930\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：纽约州纽约市的苹果商店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street moves up the bar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街提高了标准</b></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价在 11 月底和 12 月初的强劲反弹，因此发生了一件独特的事情： 尽管华尔街一致给予该股 “强力买入 ”评级，但平均目标价已跌破苹果公司的市值。</blockquote></p><p> One of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>可能会发生两种情况之一：要么分析师需要根据估值过高而下调评级，要么提高价格目标以迎头赶上。后者最终发生了，这表明对进一步上行机会的信心。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts&nbsp;had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>上周， 我们指出， 一波分析师认为苹果公司的市值在 3 万亿美元或以上。在买方方面，Loup Ventures 的 Gene Munster 甚至呼吁以元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车的机会为由，提供 4 万亿美元的公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> The most recent report&nbsp;came in&nbsp;from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>花旗于 12 月 22 日发布了最新报告。分析师吉姆·苏瓦 (Jim Suva) 将目标价上调了 30 美元至 200 美元，理由是未来的一些积极发展：（1）本财年对产品和服务的需求有弹性；（2）混合现实机会没有充分反映在股价中。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，华尔街正在忽略将 AAPL 股价从两周前的 180 美元推至最近 160 美元高位的短期阻力。分析师表示，看跌压力似乎成为了以更低价格购买苹果股票的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is it time to buy AAPL?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是时候购买 AAPL 了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Late last week,I offered a plan of action&nbsp;for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:</p><p><blockquote>上周晚些时候， 我为那些希望逢低买入苹果股票的人提供了一个行动计划。首先，我仍然认为 AAPL 是对没有任何风险敞口的成长型投资组合的一个很好的补充。否则，我认为投资者应该：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Consider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.</li>  <li>“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.</li> </ul> The chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>如果该股表现逊于纳斯达克 5 个百分点，请考虑增持 AAPL——我估计在 160 美元的股价下可能会发生这种情况。</li><li>在股价跌破 150 美元的可能性较小的情况下，“倒车”。</li></ul>下图显示，在 12 月 22 日盘前，自我发表 “削减头寸 ”文章以来，AAPL 已落后纳斯达克指数约 2 个百分点。因此，购买 AAPL 的理由正在慢慢增强，但未来一些表现不佳仍然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f898e47d3d3dcee96368c621537b62\" tg-width=\"1095\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL和IXIC性能。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-wall-street-lines-up-behind-3-trillion-bull-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183390970","content_text":"Wall Street continues to support the bull case on Apple stock. We review the most recent sell-side takes and assess if now is the time to buy the dip in AAPL.\nApple stock has bounced up and down in the past couple of weeks and now trades around $8 per share below my recent “trim the position” price point. But lack of momentum has not fazed Wall Street analysts, who increasingly believe that Apple will reach a market cap above $3 trillion within the next 12 months.\nToday, the Apple Maven scans through the most recently published sell-side reports and assesses the ever-stronger bull case on shares of the Cupertino company.\nFigure 1: Apple's store in New York, NY.\nWall Street moves up the bar\nBecause Apple stock rallied as strongly as it did in late November and early December, something unique happened: despite Wall Street having a consensus “strong buy” rating on shares, the average target price had fallen below AAPL’s market value.\nOne of two things could have happened: either analysts would need to downgrade their views based on stretched valuations, or raise their price targets to catch up. The latter ended up happening, which suggests confidence in further upside opportunity.\nLast week,we pointed out that a wave of analysts had made their case for AAPL at a $3 trillion market cap or above. On the buy side, Gene Munster from Loup Ventures even called for $4 trillion fair value on the back of opportunities in metaverse and autonomous vehicles.\nThe most recent report came in from Citi, on December 22. Analyst Jim Suva raised his price target by $30 to $200, citing a few positive developments ahead: (1) resilient demand for products and services in the current fiscal year; and (2) the mixed reality opportunity not fully reflected in the stock price.\nThe bottom line is that Wall Street is looking past the short-term headwinds that have pushed AAPL share price from $180 two weeks ago to the high $160s recently. Bearish pressures, it seems, have served as a catalyst to buy Apple stock cheaper, according to analysts.\nIs it time to buy AAPL?\nLate last week,I offered a plan of action for those looking to buy the dip in Apple stock. First, I still think that AAPL is a good addition to a growth portfolio that does not have any exposure to it. Otherwise, I believe that investors should:\n\nConsider accumulating AAPL if the stock underperforms the Nasdaq by 5 percentage points — which I estimated could happen at $160 share price.\n“Back up the truck” in the more unlikely scenario of a share price dip below $150.\n\nThe chart below shows that, premarket on December 22, AAPL had trailed the Nasdaq index by about 2 percentage points since my “trim the position” article. Therefore, the case for buying AAPL is slowly gaining strength, but some underperformance ahead is still not out of question.\nFigure 2: AAPL and IXIC performance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693449726,"gmtCreate":1640069913864,"gmtModify":1640069914143,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pl","listText":"Like pl","text":"Like pl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693449726","repostId":"1149719246","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693449509,"gmtCreate":1640069869709,"gmtModify":1640069869944,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Apesss where are u","listText":"Apesss where are u","text":"Apesss where are u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693449509","repostId":"1114692779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114692779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640068847,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114692779?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 14:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>AMC 的空头会在 2022 年无路可走吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114692779","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSpider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future o","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Spider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.</li>  <li>This quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.</li>  <li>With bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c913149be9f89018ec97f94369e31f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》获得了巨大的成功，描绘了一幅未来电影观影的光明图景。</li><li>本季度将是 AMC 大流行时代最强劲的盈利期。</li><li>由于空头仍在争论电影院已死，一个不可否认的现实已经出现。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>艾米·苏斯曼/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,<i>Spider-Man: No Way Home</i>, pulled in the&nbsp;third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic&nbsp;<i>Avengers: Infinity War</i>which had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.</p><p><blockquote>AMC (AMC) 继续寻找方法来对抗那些继续声嘶力竭地谈论观影即将消亡的空头。事实证明，这种历史悠久的美国消遣方式具有弹性，无视去年大流行引发的一系列居家令，不断壮大。因此，即使围绕新的新冠肺炎变种的消息传播，最新的索尼-漫威大片，<i>蜘蛛侠：英雄无归</i>创下有史以来第三高的开幕周末。这仅落后于大流行前<i>复仇者联盟3：无限战争</i>首映票房为 2.577 亿美元。如果没有前几周大规模的奥密克戎恐惧，蜘蛛侠可能会在《无限战争》中采取这一立场。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.</p><p><blockquote>这对疫情时代的电影观影意味着什么？不断重复的看跌论点，即票房正在走上马车的道路，看起来最终将被搁置。上周末，AMC 售出了 700 万张《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》门票，打破了疫情时代的票房记录。在某些情况下，在 2021 年整个第一季度，该公司售出的门票不到 700 万张。事实上，尽管看空者认为这种极端季节性对健康的财务状况来说不是好兆头，但不可否认的现实已经出现。只要大片不断创作，电影院就会继续卖票。广受好评的《黑客帝国复活》也将在几天后上映，预计将成为 AMC 疫情时代最强劲的季度。这将推动重大收入确认，并使公司走上产生正运营现金流的道路。因此，这个季度相当于给一个疲惫的跑步者注射肾上腺素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年电影名单强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 面临着 54.5 亿美元巨额长期债务余额的阻力，仅被 16.1 亿美元的现金和等价物部分抵消。这从根本上限制了基础业务的运营灵活性以及 AMC 追逐大流行后潜在扩张机会的能力。上述收入确认的季节性也增加了其巨额债务余额的风险，因为它增加了对长期运营现金产生零到负的敏感性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b730701841847a501a8075b37ec7946a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies like<i>John Wick 4</i>,<i>Thor: Love and Thunder</i>,<i>Avatar 2</i>, and&nbsp;<i>Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,</i>amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.</p><p><blockquote>我认为电影院更广泛的宏观前景看起来是健康的，因为去年全年被压抑的观影需求是在家庭真正想看的好电影的支持下释放出来的。2022 年可能会出现与电影相同的现象，例如<i>疾速追杀4</i>,<i>雷神：爱与雷</i>,<i>阿凡达2</i>，和<i>黑豹：永远的瓦坎达，</i>其中，将被释放。这些电影将在前几部电影的基础上再接再厉。</blockquote></p><p> This bodes well for a company that realized revenue of&nbsp;$763 million&nbsp;for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.</p><p><blockquote>这对于一家2021财年第三季度实现收入7.63亿美元的公司来说是个好兆头，同比增长538.7%，比市场普遍预期高出2985万美元。调整后 EBITDA 也为负 590 万美元，尽管比去年同期的 3.345 亿美元亏损有了重大改善。这意味着该公司的自由现金流显着改善，亏损为 1.38 亿美元，而去年同期为 3.85 亿美元。至关重要的是，这2.47亿美元的改进意味着该公司能够继续获得消费者对观影体验的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Bears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.</p><p><blockquote>看空者的说法是正确的，目前 148 亿美元的市值对于该公司来说溢价太高了。特别是因为这比大流行前的平均水平高出很多倍。这种与自称“AMC Apes”的争吵可能会在明年继续上演，随着Apes寻求自己独特的胜利，普通股仍有大幅上涨的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进入 2022 年，空头处于劣势</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.</p><p><blockquote>从我观看最新蜘蛛侠电影的纯粹轶事观察来看，观众中充满了来自不同年龄组的不同数量的人。这预示着对电影的持续需求，因为它吸引了所有人群。尽管 AMC 确实面临着高度的不确定性，但电影观影的前景并不像一些看跌说法所暗示的那样非黑即白。该公司第四季度将非常火爆，因为许多强劲的票房放映将形成创纪录的观影需求。</blockquote></p><p> This paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.</p><p><blockquote>这描绘了一幅更生动的 AMC 大流行后的景观，熊兜售的厄运和毁灭故事使其变得阴云密布。电影观看将走上大片之路的核心论点现在可能已经不复存在了。只要好电影存在，就会有电影院放映。这是否意味着 AMC 值得买入？不。该公司的财务状况虽然正在复苏，但管理失误的余地很小。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Leo Imasuen.</p><p><blockquote>本文由Leo Imasuen撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>AMC 的空头会在 2022 年无路可走吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill AMC's Bears Have No Way Home In 2022?<blockquote>AMC 的空头会在 2022 年无路可走吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 14:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Spider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.</li>  <li>This quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.</li>  <li>With bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c913149be9f89018ec97f94369e31f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Amy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》获得了巨大的成功，描绘了一幅未来电影观影的光明图景。</li><li>本季度将是 AMC 大流行时代最强劲的盈利期。</li><li>由于空头仍在争论电影院已死，一个不可否认的现实已经出现。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>艾米·苏斯曼/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,<i>Spider-Man: No Way Home</i>, pulled in the&nbsp;third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic&nbsp;<i>Avengers: Infinity War</i>which had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.</p><p><blockquote>AMC (AMC) 继续寻找方法来对抗那些继续声嘶力竭地谈论观影即将消亡的空头。事实证明，这种历史悠久的美国消遣方式具有弹性，无视去年大流行引发的一系列居家令，不断壮大。因此，即使围绕新的新冠肺炎变种的消息传播，最新的索尼-漫威大片，<i>蜘蛛侠：英雄无归</i>创下有史以来第三高的开幕周末。这仅落后于大流行前<i>复仇者联盟3：无限战争</i>首映票房为 2.577 亿美元。如果没有前几周大规模的奥密克戎恐惧，蜘蛛侠可能会在《无限战争》中采取这一立场。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.</p><p><blockquote>这对疫情时代的电影观影意味着什么？不断重复的看跌论点，即票房正在走上马车的道路，看起来最终将被搁置。上周末，AMC 售出了 700 万张《蜘蛛侠：英雄无归》门票，打破了疫情时代的票房记录。在某些情况下，在 2021 年整个第一季度，该公司售出的门票不到 700 万张。事实上，尽管看空者认为这种极端季节性对健康的财务状况来说不是好兆头，但不可否认的现实已经出现。只要大片不断创作，电影院就会继续卖票。广受好评的《黑客帝国复活》也将在几天后上映，预计将成为 AMC 疫情时代最强劲的季度。这将推动重大收入确认，并使公司走上产生正运营现金流的道路。因此，这个季度相当于给一个疲惫的跑步者注射肾上腺素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年电影名单强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> AMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 面临着 54.5 亿美元巨额长期债务余额的阻力，仅被 16.1 亿美元的现金和等价物部分抵消。这从根本上限制了基础业务的运营灵活性以及 AMC 追逐大流行后潜在扩张机会的能力。上述收入确认的季节性也增加了其巨额债务余额的风险，因为它增加了对长期运营现金产生零到负的敏感性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b730701841847a501a8075b37ec7946a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies like<i>John Wick 4</i>,<i>Thor: Love and Thunder</i>,<i>Avatar 2</i>, and&nbsp;<i>Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,</i>amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.</p><p><blockquote>我认为电影院更广泛的宏观前景看起来是健康的，因为去年全年被压抑的观影需求是在家庭真正想看的好电影的支持下释放出来的。2022 年可能会出现与电影相同的现象，例如<i>疾速追杀4</i>,<i>雷神：爱与雷</i>,<i>阿凡达2</i>，和<i>黑豹：永远的瓦坎达，</i>其中，将被释放。这些电影将在前几部电影的基础上再接再厉。</blockquote></p><p> This bodes well for a company that realized revenue of&nbsp;$763 million&nbsp;for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.</p><p><blockquote>这对于一家2021财年第三季度实现收入7.63亿美元的公司来说是个好兆头，同比增长538.7%，比市场普遍预期高出2985万美元。调整后 EBITDA 也为负 590 万美元，尽管比去年同期的 3.345 亿美元亏损有了重大改善。这意味着该公司的自由现金流显着改善，亏损为 1.38 亿美元，而去年同期为 3.85 亿美元。至关重要的是，这2.47亿美元的改进意味着该公司能够继续获得消费者对观影体验的预期需求。</blockquote></p><p> Bears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.</p><p><blockquote>看空者的说法是正确的，目前 148 亿美元的市值对于该公司来说溢价太高了。特别是因为这比大流行前的平均水平高出很多倍。这种与自称“AMC Apes”的争吵可能会在明年继续上演，随着Apes寻求自己独特的胜利，普通股仍有大幅上涨的空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>进入 2022 年，空头处于劣势</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.</p><p><blockquote>从我观看最新蜘蛛侠电影的纯粹轶事观察来看，观众中充满了来自不同年龄组的不同数量的人。这预示着对电影的持续需求，因为它吸引了所有人群。尽管 AMC 确实面临着高度的不确定性，但电影观影的前景并不像一些看跌说法所暗示的那样非黑即白。该公司第四季度将非常火爆，因为许多强劲的票房放映将形成创纪录的观影需求。</blockquote></p><p> This paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.</p><p><blockquote>这描绘了一幅更生动的 AMC 大流行后的景观，熊兜售的厄运和毁灭故事使其变得阴云密布。电影观看将走上大片之路的核心论点现在可能已经不复存在了。只要好电影存在，就会有电影院放映。这是否意味着 AMC 值得买入？不。该公司的财务状况虽然正在复苏，但管理失误的余地很小。</blockquote></p><p> This article was written by&nbsp;Leo Imasuen.</p><p><blockquote>本文由Leo Imasuen撰写。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476118-amcs-bears-will-have-no-way-home-in-2022\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476118-amcs-bears-will-have-no-way-home-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114692779","content_text":"Summary\n\nSpider-Man: No Way Home was a resounding success, painting a bright picture of the future of moviegoing.\nThis quarter is set to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era earnings period.\nWith bears still arguing that cinemas are dead, an undeniable reality has emerged.\n\nAmy Sussman/Getty Images Entertainment\nAMC (AMC) has continued to find ways to defy its bears who continue to scream at the top of their lungs about the impending death of moviegoing. This long-established American pastime has proved to be resilient, defying last year's string of pandemic induced stay-at-home orders to go from strength to strength. Hence, even as news around the new COVID-19 variant spread, the latest Sony-Marvel blockbuster,Spider-Man: No Way Home, pulled in the third highest opening weekend ever. This was just behind pre-pandemic Avengers: Infinity Warwhich had a $257.7 million opening. Without mass Omicron fears in the preceding weeks, Spider-Man would have likely taken this position from Infinity War.\nWhat does this mean for moviegoing in the pandemic era? The continued to be repeated bearish argument that box office is going the way of the horse and buggy look set to be finally being put to rest. Over the weekend, AMC sold seven million tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home, breaking its pandemic-era records for box office performance. For some context, during the entire first quarter of 2021, the company sold less than seven million tickets. Indeed, while bears would be right that this type of extreme seasonality does not bode well for healthy financials, it still stands that an undeniable reality has come about. As long as the blockbusters keep being created, cinemas will continue to sell tickets. The highly acclaimed Matrix Resurrections is also set for release in a few days, crowning what is expected to be AMC's strongest pandemic-era quarter. This will drive material revenue recognition and place the company on the path to generate positive operational cash flow. Hence, this quarter amounts to giving a shot of adrenaline to a tired runner.\nThe 2022 Movie Slate Is Strong\nAMC faces headwinds from its large long-term debt balance of $5.45 billion, only partially offset by cash and equivalents of $1.61 billion. This fundamentally restricts the operational flexibility of the underlying business as well as the ability of AMC to chase potential post-pandemic expansion opportunities. The aforementioned seasonality of revenue recognition also heightens the risk of their large debt balance as it increases sensitivity to large periods of zero to negative cash generation from operations.\nData by YCharts\nI think the broader macro picture for cinemas looks healthy as pent up demand for moviegoing throughout last year is released on the back of good movies that households actually want to see. 2022 is likely to see the same phenomena play out as movies likeJohn Wick 4,Thor: Love and Thunder,Avatar 2, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,amongst others, are set to be released. These movies are set to build on momentum established by their previous releases.\nThis bodes well for a company that realized revenue of $763 million for its fiscal 2021 third quarter, a year-over-year growth of 538.7% and a $29.85 million beat on consensus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also negative at $5.9 million, albeit a material improvement from the year-ago loss of $334.5 million. This meant the company's free cash flow improved significantly to a loss of $138 million when compared to $385 million in the year-ago quarter. Critically, this $247 million improvement means the company is able to continue to reap expected consumer demand for the moviegoing experience.\nBears would be right to state that the current market capitalization of $14.8 billion is far too much of a premium to pay for the company. Especially as this stands at a significant multiple to its pre-pandemic averages. This beef with the self-proclaimed 'AMC Apes' will likely continue to play out over the next year, leaving capacity for large upward movement in the common shares as the apes look for their own peculiar victory.\nBears On The Backfoot Heading Into 2022\nFrom my purely anecdotal observation watching the latest Spider-Man movie, the audience was filled with a diverse number of people from different age groups. This bodes well for continued demand for moviegoing as it pulls in all subsets of the population. And while AMC does face a high degree of uncertainty, the outlook for moviegoing is not as black and white as suggested by some of the bearish narrative. The company's fourth quarter stands to be extremely hot as a number of strong box office showings aggregate to form record moviegoing demand.\nThis paints a more vivid picture of AMC's post-pandemic landscape, made cloudy by tales of doom and destruction peddled by bears. The core argument that moviegoing is set to go the way of Blockbuster is likely now dead. As long as good movies exist, there will be cinemas to show them. Does this make AMC a buy? No. The company's financials, although recovering, leave very little room for management error.\nThis article was written by Leo Imasuen.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699945086,"gmtCreate":1639743446384,"gmtModify":1639743464022,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I am deep in red for AMC and GME. Help","listText":"I am deep in red for AMC and GME. Help","text":"I am deep in red for AMC and GME. Help","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699945086","repostId":"2192920651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699942524,"gmtCreate":1639743416698,"gmtModify":1639743460391,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699942524","repostId":"1100263945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100263945","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639743287,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100263945?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100263945","media":"Benzinga","summary":"When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they","content":"<p><div> When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当内部人士购买股票时，这表明他们对公司前景充满信心，或者他们认为股票很便宜。不管怎样，这都预示着做多该股的机会。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当内部人士购买股票时，这表明他们对公司前景充满信心，或者他们认为股票很便宜。不管怎样，这都预示着做多该股的机会。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BCOR":"GRAYSCALE BITCOIN ADOPTERS ETF","GIC":"Global Industry Company"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100263945","content_text":"When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. Insider purchases should not be taken as the only indicator for making an investment or trading decision. At best, it can lend conviction to a buying decision.\nBelow is a look at a few recent notable insider purchases.\nGlobal Industrial\n\nThe Trade:Global Industrial Company(NYSE:GIC) Vice Chairman Robert Leeds acquired a total of 6820000 shares at an average price of $32.37. To acquire these shares, it cost $92,050,157.58. The insider also sold a total of 4340000 shares.\nWhat’s Happening:The company, last month, posted mixed quarterly results.\nWhat Global Industrial Does:Global Industrial Co is a value-added industrial distributor. It distributes a wide range of industrial and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products to customers across North America, including storage and shelving, material handling, janitorial and maintenance, safety and security, furniture and office, HVAC/R and fans, workbenches, and shop desks, outdoor and grounds maintenance, plumbing and pumps, and packaging and supplies.\n\nLazydays Holdings\n\nThe Trade:Lazydays Holdings, Inc.(NASDAQ:LAZY) Director Christopher Shackelton acquired a total of 87184 shares at an average price of $20.35. To acquire these shares, it cost $1,774,008.66.\nWhat’s Happening:Lazydays, last month, posted Q3 sales of $318.70 million.\nWhat Lazydays Holdings Does:Lazydays Holdings Inc operates recreational vehicle dealerships. It provides various products, including RV sales, RV services, financing and insurance products, RV parts and accessories, RV rentals, third-party protection plans, and RV camping for RV owners.\n\nBlucora\n\nThe Trade:Blucora, Inc.(NASDAQ:BCOR) CEO Christopher W. Waltersbought a total of 10000 sharesat an average price of $16.73. To acquire these shares, it cost $167,300.00.\nWhat’s Happening:JP Morgan recently downgraded Blucora from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $27 to $22..\nWhat Blucora Does:Blucora Inc is a provider of technology-enabled financial solutions for consumers, small business owners, and tax professionals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BCOR":0.9,"GIC":0.9,"LAZY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601476293,"gmtCreate":1638552762200,"gmtModify":1638552765843,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601476293","repostId":"1158981658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600183188,"gmtCreate":1638090319900,"gmtModify":1638090319998,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600183188","repostId":"2186323399","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600183916,"gmtCreate":1638090278196,"gmtModify":1638090278332,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600183916","repostId":"2186328721","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600189778,"gmtCreate":1638090258544,"gmtModify":1638090258644,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600189778","repostId":"2186764328","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874886294,"gmtCreate":1637757566922,"gmtModify":1637757567014,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874886294","repostId":"2185355754","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875089859,"gmtCreate":1637587963554,"gmtModify":1637587963648,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875089859","repostId":"1122725459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122725459","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637579064,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122725459?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 19:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122725459","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading.\nTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70022515839c2eb64ad5f4e629463eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周一在推特上表示，Model S Plaid“可能”将在3月份左右登陆中国。</blockquote></p><p> The Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China&nbsp;website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉中国网站的数据，Model S Plaid在中国的售价为169,598美元（1,059,990元人民币），该网站显示Model S Plaid目前的交付时间为明年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-22 19:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a70022515839c2eb64ad5f4e629463eb\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"595\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周一在推特上表示，Model S Plaid“可能”将在3月份左右登陆中国。</blockquote></p><p> The Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China&nbsp;website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据特斯拉中国网站的数据，Model S Plaid在中国的售价为169,598美元（1,059,990元人民币），该网站显示Model S Plaid目前的交付时间为明年年底。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122725459","content_text":"Tesla shares rose nearly 3% in premarket trading.\nTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a tweet on Monday that Model S Plaid will \"probably\" be coming to China around March.\nThe Model S Plaid is priced at $169,598 (RMB 1,059,990) in China, as per Tesla China website, which shows the current delivery time for Model S Plaid to be at the end of next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870490766,"gmtCreate":1636640905587,"gmtModify":1636640988799,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Apes,&nbsp;when is the short squeeze coming?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>Apes,&nbsp;when is the short squeeze coming?&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$Apes, when is the short squeeze coming?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271538ed4ff34bc68d2e96d682913ade","width":"1080","height":"3162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870490766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870402540,"gmtCreate":1636640584355,"gmtModify":1636640584653,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>ouch, any advice?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>ouch, any advice?","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$ouch, any advice?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e27202e32b41961696fee320e126d25","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870402540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847469043,"gmtCreate":1636546412370,"gmtModify":1636546412680,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what is a good buy in price for palantir","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what is a good buy in price for palantir","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what is a good buy in price for palantir","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb0657ad329900ad8cce086b4e0784c","width":"1080","height":"3162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847469043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847484991,"gmtCreate":1636545974709,"gmtModify":1636545975030,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$</a>love CAN, going HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$</a>love CAN, going HODL","text":"$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$love CAN, going HODL","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4fd359d423a5f1fe5dc361d62d26738","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847484991","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844702363,"gmtCreate":1636457368688,"gmtModify":1636461891547,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>lets go naked!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>lets go naked!!","text":"$Naked Brand(NAKD)$lets go naked!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fe3df6309ee56ad029d9695e93d3a0","width":"1080","height":"3162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844702363","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844706173,"gmtCreate":1636457268995,"gmtModify":1636457279798,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>i held this for so long, finally some movement!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand(NAKD)$</a>i held this for so long, finally some movement!!","text":"$Naked Brand(NAKD)$i held this for so long, finally some movement!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7104db9c25782c70a72c5c0a0eb4349b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844706173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845743897,"gmtCreate":1636371709706,"gmtModify":1636371710011,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$</a>what is CAN going to moon??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$</a>what is CAN going to moon??","text":"$Canaan Inc.(CAN)$what is CAN going to moon??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f0b192f63035f109c89f35ab1bb019c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845743897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846629678,"gmtCreate":1636079200345,"gmtModify":1636080019458,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>PTON&nbsp;drop so&nbsp;much, isit buy the dip?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>PTON&nbsp;drop so&nbsp;much, isit buy the dip?","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$PTON drop so much, isit buy the dip?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/234af3446f68d4d6fcad80648e375ab9","width":"1080","height":"3162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846629678","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846665660,"gmtCreate":1636078889497,"gmtModify":1636079985628,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>oops not beyond meat but&nbsp;beyond my loss :(","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$</a>oops not beyond meat but&nbsp;beyond my loss :(","text":"$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$oops not beyond meat but beyond my loss :(","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24cb7b977d3331ff9c50d0ac697638d2","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846665660","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":857330773,"gmtCreate":1635506923911,"gmtModify":1635506957242,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>is tiger a good buy now??&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>is tiger a good buy now??&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$is tiger a good buy now??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba39850c229fbb5ceb43a628e2ebfea","width":"1080","height":"3268"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857330773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862786897,"gmtCreate":1632914623519,"gmtModify":1632914623649,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862786897","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>  <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>  <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</li><li>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</li><li>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满 “这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从同事那里得到的问题<i>减少垃圾投资。</i>这是一个很好的问题，因为投资者认为<i>“无风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个定义，准确地定义什么是熔化。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>  <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>  <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–  <i>Investopedia</i>  Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是指资产或资产类别的投资业绩持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至、</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本性改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>    <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>  <ul>  <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期的顶峰附近，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所吸引。这种繁荣滋生了 “合理化”，即 “这次不同 ”。那么，你如何知道目前的市场是否繁荣呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种市场活动表明市场已经回到了'热情'阶段。其特点是：'</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>轻松信贷（太容易，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行的热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>高风险股票跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>拉伸估值</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们可以免受下跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象一些事情往往比解释它更容易。<b>自 1900 年以来，只有两个之前的市场时期符合融化的条件：1920-1929 年和 1995-2000 年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>一如既往，投资公众相信未来的收益将证明熔化期间价格上涨是合理的。只是从来没有那样的结果。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前较 2020 年 3 月低点的进步进行比较。同样，我们看到价格也出现了非常相似的大幅上涨，同时估值也飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来的盈利能够大幅增长，以证明当前的价格是合理的。然而，付出高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值的衡量标准略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的偏差。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化，”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势迅速偏离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场问题<i>“融化”</i>不是熔化本身，而是随之而来的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在融化过程中，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度使用杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，而基本面则让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化是关于<i>心理学。</i><b>从历史上看，无论什么催化剂引发了人们对风险的漠视，价格和估值的相应飙升都很容易见证。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。以前的<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进步相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于当前的扩展只与历史上几个罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>  <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>流行的心理总是 “这次不一样”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被放弃，以换取势头和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似 “输不起 ”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，也是不可避免的，“融化 ”以最坏的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场处于<i>“融化，</i>“事件的持续时间不得而知。因此，投资者需要一个策略来参与预先，并减轻最终的损失<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如前所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理的一个功能，它们可能会持续更长时间，比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么 “<i>结束”</i>融化是一种意想不到的外部事件，它会将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是退出潮发生的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场发展。但是，当然，困难的部分是当调整不可避免地发生时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我概述了我们采用的流程。</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>  <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（在市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>抵御市场大幅下跌。（不相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>卖出落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>(如果某种方法在市场融化时不起作用，那么在普遍下跌时很可能也不起作用。最好尽早消除风险）。</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并根据目标权重重新平衡投资组合。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没写，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，变现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间大幅筹集现金。良好的投资组合管理策略将自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当销售开始时，水平被触发，风险敞口减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然在融化过程中利用融化的机会至关重要，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829250841,"gmtCreate":1633518528622,"gmtModify":1633518528843,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829250841","repostId":"1140605265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140605265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633514236,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140605265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140605265","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while lev","content":"<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策，以确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生巨大而毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴市场和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、GDOW+1.05%、DJIA 0.04%、房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机正在迅速逼近</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（项目辛迪加）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。他们无一例外地选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自 COVID-19 大流行开始以来，唯一加息的发达经济体中央银行是挪威的挪威银行，该银行于 9 月 24 日将政策利率从零上调至 0.25%。虽然它暗示可能在 12 月份再次加息，其政策利率可能在 2024 年底达到 1.7%，但这只不过是货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施持续实现 2% 通胀目标所需的加息措施的进一步证据。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>如今的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相符的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行没有给予金融稳定足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在 1997 年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通货膨胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。为了应对 COVID-19 大流行病，各国央行采取了前所未有的积极政策，以确保金融稳定，这证实了 “一次被咬，两次害羞 ”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，取消了所有支持实体经济活动的政策。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身就是可持续价格稳定（以及一些中央银行的另一个目标，即充分就业）的先决条件。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并预计），如果美国联邦政府在 10 月 18 日或前后违反 “债务上限 ”，各国央行--尤其是美联储--已准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody's Analytics）的马克-赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达 600 万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达 15 万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我感到乐观。如果主权违约持续下去，成本可能会更高。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生巨大而毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴市场和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX,0.43%仍然是世界高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限这样的自残，如今金融脆弱性仍然普遍存在。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表在本世纪创下历史新高，使得所有四个部门都更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>中央银行是唯一有能力解决资金和市场流动性危机的经济行为者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动性负债和非流动性资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。中国和美国、欧元区、日本和英国都是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫--以及抵御泡沫的家庭债务--迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但是，即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度而持久的经济衰退也将不可避免。再加上中国的潜在增长率大幅下降（由于人口结构和不利于企业的政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是 equitySPX、GDOW+1.05%、DJIA 0.04%、房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近进行了小幅调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下是负值）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期真实安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样，那么今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离现实了。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管机构和监管机构都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都需要大幅去杠杆化，以减少金融脆弱性并增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为早该恢复金融可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>中央银行作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR），将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未如此重要。2%的通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的阴暗地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，现在潜伏的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>Willem H. Buiter 是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。彼于2010年至2018年担任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140605265","content_text":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.\n\nNEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.\nAs a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which lifted its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has hinted that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.\n\nToday’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nCentral banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.\nPrioritize financial stability over inflation\nThe result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.\nCentral banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.\n\nThere is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.\n\nI hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent study by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.\nIn any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.\nVulnerable to financial shocks\nEven without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.\n\nThe economic and social cost of a\nfinancial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.\n\nCentral banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.\nChina’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.\nDistorted beliefs and enduring bubbles\nAcross the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nThe goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.\n\nWhenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.\nCentral banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.\nWillem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824175041,"gmtCreate":1634296313926,"gmtModify":1634296314164,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824175041","repostId":"1128641889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128641889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634227362,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128641889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-15 00:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股票。就连仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128641889","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla  stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion.  That’s more than Toyota Motor’s  market capitalization of about $28","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股票。连熊都承认。</blockquote></p><p> Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.</p><p><blockquote>周四，巴克莱分析师 Brian Johnson 将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票的目标价从 230 美元上调至 300 美元。不过，他仍然给予相当于卖出的股票评级。特斯拉股价周四收于 818.32 美元，远未接近 300 美元。尽管如此，他的目标价格在一个方面被提高到了一个重要水平。</blockquote></p><p> At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than&nbsp;Toyota Motor’s&nbsp;(TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>按 300 美元计算，Johnson 表示特斯拉股票的价值约为 3000 亿美元。(这比丰田汽车（Toyota Motor，TM）约 2870 亿美元的市值还要多）。另一位分析师现在认为，没有比特斯拉更有价值的汽车公司了。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是华尔街极具争议的股票。分析师的目标价（甚至删除顶部和底部目标以减少偏差）范围为每股 150 美元至 1,080 美元。930美元的牛熊价差超过当前股价的100%，比大型股票的平均价差宽两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bull-bear spread for&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.</p><p><blockquote>例如，微软（MSFT）的牛熊价差约为每股 100 美元，约为该股近期 296.31 美元股价的 33%。</blockquote></p><p> The Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的争议在很大程度上可以归结为一场关于特斯拉是什么的辩论。看空者认为它是一家汽车公司，竞争将侵蚀其利润并减缓其增长。看涨者认为，特斯拉是一家平台科技公司，除了核心汽车业务外，还拥有固定电源等多项业务，特斯拉在自动驾驶和电池管理软件等领域领先于汽车同行，这将使公司在未来十年内实现高增长，同时保持领先的电动汽车市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;(F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>约翰逊则是一位传统的汽车分析师，负责研究 20 多家公司。他似乎属于前阵营。他将通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 的股票评级为买入。这两只股票的市盈率为个位数。特斯拉的交易价格约为 2022 年预期收益的 100 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.</p><p><blockquote>他提高了目标价，因为尽管认为该公司被高估，但在 10 月 20 日发布的第三季度财报中，情况看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计第三季度销售额为 135 亿美元，每股收益约为 1.5 美元。该公司第二季度销售额为 120 亿美元，调整后每股收益为 1.45 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are both down slightly over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票一直表现强劲，这反映了良好的盈利状况。过去三个月股价上涨了约 21%。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数在同一时期都略有下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Its stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>其股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.4%，至 821.75 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股票。就连仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is the World’s Most Valuable Car Stock. Even the Haters Think So.<blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股票。就连仇恨者也这么认为。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-15 00:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉是世界上最有价值的汽车股票。连熊都承认。</blockquote></p><p> Thursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.</p><p><blockquote>周四，巴克莱分析师 Brian Johnson 将特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股票的目标价从 230 美元上调至 300 美元。不过，他仍然给予相当于卖出的股票评级。特斯拉股价周四收于 818.32 美元，远未接近 300 美元。尽管如此，他的目标价格在一个方面被提高到了一个重要水平。</blockquote></p><p> At $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than&nbsp;Toyota Motor’s&nbsp;(TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>按 300 美元计算，Johnson 表示特斯拉股票的价值约为 3000 亿美元。(这比丰田汽车（Toyota Motor，TM）约 2870 亿美元的市值还要多）。另一位分析师现在认为，没有比特斯拉更有价值的汽车公司了。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉仍然是华尔街极具争议的股票。分析师的目标价（甚至删除顶部和底部目标以减少偏差）范围为每股 150 美元至 1,080 美元。930美元的牛熊价差超过当前股价的100%，比大型股票的平均价差宽两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> The bull-bear spread for&nbsp;Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.</p><p><blockquote>例如，微软（MSFT）的牛熊价差约为每股 100 美元，约为该股近期 296.31 美元股价的 33%。</blockquote></p><p> The Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的争议在很大程度上可以归结为一场关于特斯拉是什么的辩论。看空者认为它是一家汽车公司，竞争将侵蚀其利润并减缓其增长。看涨者认为，特斯拉是一家平台科技公司，除了核心汽车业务外，还拥有固定电源等多项业务，特斯拉在自动驾驶和电池管理软件等领域领先于汽车同行，这将使公司在未来十年内实现高增长，同时保持领先的电动汽车市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Johnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates&nbsp;General Motors&nbsp;(GM) and&nbsp;Ford Motor&nbsp;(F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>约翰逊则是一位传统的汽车分析师，负责研究 20 多家公司。他似乎属于前阵营。他将通用汽车 (GM) 和福特汽车 (F) 的股票评级为买入。这两只股票的市盈率为个位数。特斯拉的交易价格约为 2022 年预期收益的 100 倍。</blockquote></p><p> He raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.</p><p><blockquote>他提高了目标价，因为尽管认为该公司被高估，但在 10 月 20 日发布的第三季度财报中，情况看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> For the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计第三季度销售额为 135 亿美元，每股收益约为 1.5 美元。该公司第二季度销售额为 120 亿美元，调整后每股收益为 1.45 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;are both down slightly over the same span.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股票一直表现强劲，这反映了良好的盈利状况。过去三个月股价上涨了约 21%。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数在同一时期都略有下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Its stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>其股价在盘前交易中上涨 0.4%，至 821.75 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-51634217724?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-51634217724?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128641889","content_text":"Tesla is the world’s most valuable car stock. Even the bears admit it.\nThursday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson raised his price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock to $300 from $230. He still rates shares the equivalent of Sell, though. And Tesla stock closed Thursday at $818.32—nowhere near $300. Still, his price target was bumped to an important level in one respect.\nAt $300, Johnson is saying that Tesla stock is worth about $300 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.) That’s more than Toyota Motor’s (TM) market capitalization of about $287 billion. Another analyst now believes there is no more valuable car company than Tesla.\nTesla remains a very controversial stock on Wall Street. Analyst price targets—even removing the top and bottom targets to reduce skew—range from $150 to $1,080 a share. The $930 bull-bear spread is more than 100% of the current stock price and two to three times wider than the average spread for large stocks.\nThe bull-bear spread for Microsoft (MSFT), for instance, is about $100 a share or roughly 33% of the stock’s recent $296.31 price.\nThe Tesla controversy boils down, in large part, to a debate about what Tesla is. Bears believe it is a car company and that competition will erode its margins and slow its growth. Bulls believe Tesla is a platform tech company with many businesses—such as stationary power—along with its core car operations and that Tesla’s lead over automotive peers in things such as autonomous driving and battery management software will enable high growth for a decade while maintaining leading EV market share.\nJohnson, for his part, is a traditional auto analyst covering more than 20 companies. He appears to fall in the former camp. He rates General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor (F) stock Buy. Those two stocks trade for single-digit price-to-earnings ratios. Tesla trades for roughly 100 times estimated 2022 earnings.\nHe raised his price target because, despite believing the company is overvalued, things are looking good going into the third-quarter earnings release due October 20.\nFor the third quarter, Wall Street is looking for about $1.50 in per-share earnings from $13.5 billion in sales. The company earned $1.45 in adjusted per-share earnings from $12 billion in sales during the second quarter.\nTesla stock has been on a strong run, reflecting the good setup into earnings. Shares are up about 21% over the past three months. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down slightly over the same span.\nIts stock rose 0.4% to $821.75 in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864874873,"gmtCreate":1633094878645,"gmtModify":1633094911330,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864874873","repostId":"1161592541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161592541","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633086657,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161592541?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 19:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Bad Month for Stocks Ends With Few Signs the Drama Is Over<blockquote>股市糟糕的一个月结束时，几乎没有迹象表明戏剧已经结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161592541","media":"Bloomgberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- The end of the September in the stock market was a time of volatility, accelerated he","content":"<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The end of the September in the stock market was a time of volatility, accelerated hedging and economic unease. It did not, however, spur an extreme reordering in trader sentiment, and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——9月底是股市波动、对冲加速和经济不安的时期。然而，这并没有刺激交易员情绪的极端重新排序，而且……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Bad Month for Stocks Ends With Few Signs the Drama Is Over<blockquote>股市糟糕的一个月结束时，几乎没有迹象表明戏剧已经结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Bad Month for Stocks Ends With Few Signs the Drama Is Over<blockquote>股市糟糕的一个月结束时，几乎没有迹象表明戏剧已经结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomgberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-01 19:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (Bloomberg) -- The end of the September in the stock market was a time of volatility, accelerated hedging and economic unease. It did not, however, spur an extreme reordering in trader sentiment, and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（彭博社）——9月底是股市波动、对冲加速和经济不安的时期。然而，这并没有刺激交易员情绪的极端重新排序，而且……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html\">Bloomgberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bad-month-stocks-ends-few-202428322.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161592541","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- The end of the September in the stock market was a time of volatility, accelerated hedging and economic unease. It did not, however, spur an extreme reordering in trader sentiment, and to some of Wall Street’s old guard that’s worrisome.\nWhile the S&P 500 posted its worst monthly performance since March 2020, there was no sign of the kind of cathartic surrender that contrarians look for in trying to call bottoms. Amid another early-week selloff, hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. were only “modest” sellers. On Tuesday, when the benchmark suffered its biggest drop in four months, outflows from equity exchange-traded funds trickled to only a fraction of what had been seen the week before.\nAt the same time, the hand-over-fist buying sprees that marked exits from past dips were also not in evidence. Retail traders backed away from their favorite speculative instrument. The S&P 500 approached 4,385 twice on Thursday before turning lower. The failure came one day after the level -- which acted as ceiling in July and then served as support in August --thwarted the index’s four breakout attempts.\n“Until we see a washout or impulsive buying, a move to the 200 DMA on the S&P 500 can’t be ruled out,” said John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors. The index’s 200-day moving average sat near 4,135, a 4% decline from its last close.\nStocks have tumbled as surging bond yields prompted investors to flee richly valued technology shares. Adding to the list of worries are concern about the government debt ceiling, rising political static around the Federal Reserve and supply chain disruptions.\nBut panic was absent during the worst day of the carnage. On Tuesday, when the S&P 500 tumbled 2%, short sales from hedge funds were flat, as opposed to Sept. 20, when a smaller decline triggered a 5.5% jump in bearish positions, client data compiled by Goldman show. And exchange-traded fund outflows that day reached $1.7 billion, trailing the $12 billion withdrawals seen from Sept. 20, according to Bloomberg data.\nUnderpinning Tuesday’s selloff were systematic traders who allocate assets based on volatility, according to Nomura Securities strategist Charlie McElligott. He estimated that volatility control funds and targeted risk strategies likely slashed equity holdings by $35 billion on that day alone.\nBroadly, fear has yet to reach levels that flag a buying opportunity. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, says one gauge he monitors is the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX. The gauge peaked at 25.7 this month, short of the reading of 36 that typically signals what he calls a “tradable low.”\n“We’re waiting for better levels before we get tactically bullish again,” Colas said. “We recommend long term investors steel themselves for a difficult few weeks to come.”\nThe usual dip buyers were not enthusiastic either. Retail investors, one of the bull market’s biggest allies, has curbed their buying of bullish options while raising wagers against stocks.\nIn fact, one trader just put out a massive hedging position via options to protect a portfolio of stocks in the event that the S&P 500’s losses snowball toward 20% during the fourth quarter.\nTo Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., the market is likely to follow the pattern from a year ago, when the jump in Treasury yields sent the S&P 500 toward a 10% correction. And with the Fed turning more hawkish on monetary policy, investors had better get ready for bigger turmoil, he said.\n“We believe the correction will likely be a deeper one,” Maley said. “This year, the Fed is on the cusp of tapering back on their massive QE program and starting to talk about raising rates sooner than the market has been pricing in. Last year at this time, the QE program was running at full tilt.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840962511,"gmtCreate":1635576462448,"gmtModify":1635576462534,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840962511","repostId":"2179424781","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166582326,"gmtCreate":1624017942465,"gmtModify":1634024071588,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166582326","repostId":"1158784745","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":847469043,"gmtCreate":1636546412370,"gmtModify":1636546412680,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what is a good buy in price for palantir","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>what is a good buy in price for palantir","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$what is a good buy in price for palantir","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb0657ad329900ad8cce086b4e0784c","width":"1080","height":"3162"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847469043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173517235,"gmtCreate":1626669784027,"gmtModify":1631892367165,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comments&nbsp; please","listText":"Comments&nbsp; please","text":"Comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173517235","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":699942524,"gmtCreate":1639743416698,"gmtModify":1639743460391,"author":{"id":"3578395069533223","authorId":"3578395069533223","name":"Onlyme","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578395069533223","idStr":"3578395069533223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like plz","listText":"Like plz","text":"Like plz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699942524","repostId":"1100263945","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100263945","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639743287,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1100263945?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 20:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100263945","media":"Benzinga","summary":"When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they","content":"<p><div> When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当内部人士购买股票时，这表明他们对公司前景充满信心，或者他们认为股票很便宜。不管怎样，这都预示着做多该股的机会。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks Insiders Are Buying<blockquote>内部人士正在买入的 3 只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当内部人士购买股票时，这表明他们对公司前景充满信心，或者他们认为股票很便宜。不管怎样，这都预示着做多该股的机会。...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BCOR":"GRAYSCALE BITCOIN ADOPTERS ETF","GIC":"Global Industry Company"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/21/12/24665866/3-stocks-insiders-are-buying","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100263945","content_text":"When insiders purchase shares, it indicates their confidence in the company's prospects or that they view the stock as a bargain. Either way, this signals an opportunity to go long on the stock. Insider purchases should not be taken as the only indicator for making an investment or trading decision. At best, it can lend conviction to a buying decision.\nBelow is a look at a few recent notable insider purchases.\nGlobal Industrial\n\nThe Trade:Global Industrial Company(NYSE:GIC) Vice Chairman Robert Leeds acquired a total of 6820000 shares at an average price of $32.37. To acquire these shares, it cost $92,050,157.58. The insider also sold a total of 4340000 shares.\nWhat’s Happening:The company, last month, posted mixed quarterly results.\nWhat Global Industrial Does:Global Industrial Co is a value-added industrial distributor. It distributes a wide range of industrial and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products to customers across North America, including storage and shelving, material handling, janitorial and maintenance, safety and security, furniture and office, HVAC/R and fans, workbenches, and shop desks, outdoor and grounds maintenance, plumbing and pumps, and packaging and supplies.\n\nLazydays Holdings\n\nThe Trade:Lazydays Holdings, Inc.(NASDAQ:LAZY) Director Christopher Shackelton acquired a total of 87184 shares at an average price of $20.35. To acquire these shares, it cost $1,774,008.66.\nWhat’s Happening:Lazydays, last month, posted Q3 sales of $318.70 million.\nWhat Lazydays Holdings Does:Lazydays Holdings Inc operates recreational vehicle dealerships. It provides various products, including RV sales, RV services, financing and insurance products, RV parts and accessories, RV rentals, third-party protection plans, and RV camping for RV owners.\n\nBlucora\n\nThe Trade:Blucora, Inc.(NASDAQ:BCOR) CEO Christopher W. Waltersbought a total of 10000 sharesat an average price of $16.73. To acquire these shares, it cost $167,300.00.\nWhat’s Happening:JP Morgan recently downgraded Blucora from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $27 to $22..\nWhat Blucora Does:Blucora Inc is a provider of technology-enabled financial solutions for consumers, small business owners, and tax professionals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BCOR":0.9,"GIC":0.9,"LAZY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}