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2021-05-03

....

@夏夏夏:关注农夫山泉的2个视角

2021-04-27

好

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2021-04-20

路还长.....

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2021-04-20

保持乐观谨慎的态度

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2021-04-19

依然需要观察

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67.02港元，距离当前股价有年盈利预测的 79.1倍 PE，且考虑到于港股市场对于具备稀缺性的龙头公司拥有较高溢价，首次覆盖，给予公司买入评级。 两种估值法，PE和DCF。而PE的算法，最容易理解贵不贵值不值。本文首先要从PE的角度，解析当下的估值和这份年报。农夫山泉2020年净利润52.77亿元，今日收盘价市值4605亿港元，PE TTM也就是73。 接下来就要谈到增长预期。市场对农夫的增长预期是双位数增长，比如： 以包装饮用水为代表的健康饮品增长快速，且量价仍具备提升空间，预期2019-2024年市场规模的CAGR达10.8%至3，371亿元；而符合当下消费趋势的无糖茶、中高浓度/纯果汁、功能饮料也将保持高于各细分市场的增速，预期CAGR将分别为22.9%、6.6%/9.8%、9.4%。 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案例1：首次覆盖给予“持有”评级，目标价50.0港元公司是行业龙头，盈利能力业内领先，预计公司2020-2022年EPS分别0.46/0.57/0.69元，给予50.0港元的目标价，对应2021/2022年73/60倍PE，较现价有7.3%的涨幅空间，首次覆盖给予“持有”评级。 案例2：我们预计公司未来业绩仍能保持双位数以上高速增长，并维持行业中较高的利润水平。考虑到公司销售及业绩的稳定性以及上述优势，我们采用 DCF估值法，按照 WACC为，给予公司目标价 67.02港元，距离当前股价有年盈利预测的 79.1倍 PE，且考虑到于港股市场对于具备稀缺性的龙头公司拥有较高溢价，首次覆盖，给予公司买入评级。 两种估值法，PE和DCF。而PE的算法，最容易理解贵不贵值不值。本文首先要从PE的角度，解析当下的估值和这份年报。农夫山泉2020年净利润52.77亿元，今日收盘价市值4605亿港元，PE TTM也就是73。 接下来就要谈到增长预期。市场对农夫的增长预期是双位数增长，比如： 以包装饮用水为代表的健康饮品增长快速，且量价仍具备提升空间，预期2019-2024年市场规模的CAGR达10.8%至3，371亿元；而符合当下消费趋势的无糖茶、中高浓度/纯果汁、功能饮料也将保持高于各细分市场的增速，预期CAGR将分别为22.9%、6.6%/9.8%、9.4%。 如果真达到预估的增长值，举例来说之后2年净利润复合增速为15%，那么当前价格对应22年和23年的PE分别为63和55。你认为合理吗。考虑到农夫最高价格曾对应PE超100，市场会给更好的机会吗，","text":"关注一间企业值不值得买，首先就要说到估值逻辑。$农夫山泉(09633)$ 市场如何估值农夫？ 给出两个案例供虎友们参考， 案例1：首次覆盖给予“持有”评级，目标价50.0港元公司是行业龙头，盈利能力业内领先，预计公司2020-2022年EPS分别0.46/0.57/0.69元，给予50.0港元的目标价，对应2021/2022年73/60倍PE，较现价有7.3%的涨幅空间，首次覆盖给予“持有”评级。 案例2：我们预计公司未来业绩仍能保持双位数以上高速增长，并维持行业中较高的利润水平。考虑到公司销售及业绩的稳定性以及上述优势，我们采用 DCF估值法，按照 WACC为，给予公司目标价 67.02港元，距离当前股价有年盈利预测的 79.1倍 PE，且考虑到于港股市场对于具备稀缺性的龙头公司拥有较高溢价，首次覆盖，给予公司买入评级。 两种估值法，PE和DCF。而PE的算法，最容易理解贵不贵值不值。本文首先要从PE的角度，解析当下的估值和这份年报。农夫山泉2020年净利润52.77亿元，今日收盘价市值4605亿港元，PE TTM也就是73。 接下来就要谈到增长预期。市场对农夫的增长预期是双位数增长，比如： 以包装饮用水为代表的健康饮品增长快速，且量价仍具备提升空间，预期2019-2024年市场规模的CAGR达10.8%至3，371亿元；而符合当下消费趋势的无糖茶、中高浓度/纯果汁、功能饮料也将保持高于各细分市场的增速，预期CAGR将分别为22.9%、6.6%/9.8%、9.4%。 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