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ElaineFaye

ElaineFaye

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2021-05-14

$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$Almost fainted

2021-05-14

Omg please rises

2021-05-11

My heart faints

2021-05-10

Slow n steady

2021-05-10

$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$Today has some improvement but still long way to go

2021-05-09

Like n comment

What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-05-09

Like n comment [Smile]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-09

$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Good 👍🏻

2021-05-09

Market recently quite unstable

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-09

Like and comment pls

Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>

2021-05-09

$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$Please get up

2021-05-07

$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$原来有这么多人陪伴着我。

2021-05-07

Jiayou jiayou

2021-05-07

$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$Upset to the max

2021-05-07

Quite upset that I still have pltr stocks around $28.50

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-06

$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Should I sell?

2021-05-06

Kinda of upset that I sell it off too fast

2021-05-05

$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Jiayou jiayou

2021-05-04

$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$伤心难过有人贱卖吗？

2021-05-04

Please get better

Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>

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n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107763106","repostId":"1122089368","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122089368","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620457397,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122089368?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122089368","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are t","content":"<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的事情。股票估值是自 2000 年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来最低的利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政润滑增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但有一个最重要的驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中一直将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示利率至少在未来两年内不会发生变化。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀率——也就是说，实际收益率严重为负——这只是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取了行动来应对疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候造成的破坏甚至比 2007-09 年金融危机还要大。然而，在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会破坏如此低利率的原因，威胁到市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>“哈佛大学经济学家杰里米-斯坦（Jeremy Stein）说：”在假设利率将长期处于低位的情况下，股市在最低点的定价是完美的。他曾与现任主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一起担任美联储理事。“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，'一切都很好，我们并不急于加息'。不过，虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但我们完全有可能在几个季度内看到通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持在极低的情况下，股票的估值才是合理的，那么如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通货膨胀，而债券收益率上升 1 到 1.5 个百分点，股票如何重新定价？“资产价格可能会出现严重调整”。</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前来过这里。上世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司（Long-Term Capital Management）濒临倒闭，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为一种隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策随后被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为他们的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）将损害他们低失业率和低通胀的主要目标，并且比让泡沫自行破裂造成更大的危害。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告说，资产 “估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4 月 28 日，鲍威尔先生承认市场看起来 “有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一： “我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系”。但他没有暗示美联储即将缩减刺激计划： “经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走”。美国劳工部周五发布的一份报告显示，4 月份新增就业岗位远低于华尔街预期，这凸显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储将利率降至接近于零并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正在应对强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储 2% 的目标以下。人口老龄化等根深蒂固的力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，这种组合被一些人称为 “长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机更严重。但两个月后，随着限制的放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的要早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币机会仍然敞开。去年 5 月，民主党人首次提出额外 3 万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降 6%。它实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党人在赢得白宫和国会后，推动了同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场运作正常，它延长了该计划，同时将基本原理转向保持较低的债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于 2% 之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回 2%，而且推高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都将稳定在 2%。为此，它承诺在恢复充分就业、通货膨胀率为 2% 并继续走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在 2024 年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然利润预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的 22 倍，这一水平只有在 2000 年互联网繁荣鼎盛时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。彭博巴克莱数据显示，投资者愿意以至少自 1995 年以来最低的收益率以及自 2007 年以来最窄的高于安全国债的利差购买垃圾级公司债券。经通货膨胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策正在按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这对利润、住房需求和企业信誉都有好处；以及对风险的偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率已不足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司获得了更高的估值。这些估值并不是现金流或利润前景优越的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>传统估值对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币，成为交易媒介和价值储存手段。加密货币交易所 Coinbase GlobalInc. 的首次公开募股招股说明书称：“加密货币有潜力像互联网一样具有革命性和广泛采用。”根据信息服务机构 CoinDesk 的数据，截至 4 月 29 日，加密货币价值超过 2 万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在 1987 年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20 世纪 90 年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，21 世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。如今，相当于零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行财团国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlements）最近的一份报告，这类投资者对整体市场的走向产生了越来越大的影响。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，追踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量已经攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基本业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票--例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测通常归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激并非如此。金融研究公司 Bianco Research 的负责人吉姆·比安科 (Jim Bianco) 表示，随着财政部发放 1,400 美元的刺激支票，3 月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“比安科先生说：”你用支票做的第一件事就是把它存入你的账户，到 2021 年，这就是你的经纪账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>我们无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此： 高价股票最终可能会获得必要的利润，以证明今天的估值是合理的，尤其是在目前经济处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机活动可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在许多竞争对手都声称要做同样的事情。 TeslaInc 曾经是您可以购买的唯一一只押注电动汽车的股票；现在有中国的蔚来公司、尼古拉公司和菲斯克公司，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商了，它们正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。四月份的就业失望提醒人们，经济前景依然不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能。不能排除金融危机与某种隐藏的脆弱性有关。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，抵押贷款承销如此紧张，以至于类似于 2007-09 年金融危机（始于抵押贷款违约）的情况似乎不太可能发生。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，那么它们的价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management 最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷款人造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到它们的生存，也没有引发对类似情况的公司的传染。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了通货膨胀。由于半导体、木材和工人短缺，对通货膨胀的担忧现在很普遍，都给价格和成本带来了上行压力。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复正常，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，普通债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的平均通胀率约为 2.5%。这几乎不是 20 世纪 70 年代的重演，也符合美联储提出的长期平均通胀率 2% 的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显突破过去十年低于2%的范围。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略有上升将导致美联储将短期利率设定得也略有上升，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往走向相反的方向。这是因为，当通货膨胀不令人担忧时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了针对股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，收益率就会上升。现任对冲基金 D.E. 的前美联储经济学家布莱恩·萨克 (Brian Sack) 表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股票与债券的相关性开始消失。肖有限公司。他将这部分归因于通货膨胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融格局，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀永远不会再产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但是，如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地将经济从过去十年的模式中拉出来，那么这种自满情绪可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Happens to Stocks and Cryptocurrencies When the Fed Stops Raining Money?<blockquote>当美联储停止投放资金时，股票和加密货币会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>对于金融泡沫的老手来说，现在有很多熟悉的事情。股票估值是自 2000 年互联网泡沫以来最高的。房价回到了金融危机前的峰值。高风险公司可以以有记录以来最低的利率借款。个人投资者正在向绿色能源和加密货币投入资金。</blockquote></p><p>This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.</p><p><blockquote>这种繁荣有一些合理的解释，从数字商务的进步到可能是1983年以来最强劲的财政润滑增长。</blockquote></p><p>But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>但有一个最重要的驱动因素：美联储。宽松的货币政策经常推动金融繁荣，现在尤其容易。美联储在过去一年中一直将利率维持在接近于零的水平，并表示利率至少在未来两年内不会发生变化。它正在购买数千亿美元的债券。因此，10年期国债收益率远低于通胀率——也就是说，实际收益率严重为负——这只是40年来的第二次。</blockquote></p><p>There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.</p><p><blockquote>利率如此之低是有充分理由的。美联储采取了行动来应对疫情，这场疫情在最严重的时候造成的破坏甚至比 2007-09 年金融危机还要大。然而，在很大程度上要归功于美联储和国会通过了约5万亿美元的财政刺激计划，这次复苏看起来比上次要健康得多。这可能会破坏如此低利率的原因，威胁到市场的基础。</blockquote></p><p>“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>“哈佛大学经济学家杰里米-斯坦（Jeremy Stein）说：”在假设利率将长期处于低位的情况下，股市在最低点的定价是完美的。他曾与现任主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）一起担任美联储理事。“当然，你会感觉到美联储非常努力地说，'一切都很好，我们并不急于加息'。不过，虽然我不认为我们会走向持续的高通胀，但我们完全有可能在几个季度内看到通胀数据。”</blockquote></p><p>Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”</p><p><blockquote>他问道，由于只有在利率保持在极低的情况下，股票的估值才是合理的，那么如果美联储不得不收紧货币政策以对抗通货膨胀，而债券收益率上升 1 到 1.5 个百分点，股票如何重新定价？“资产价格可能会出现严重调整”。</blockquote></p><p><b>‘A bit frothy’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“有点泡沫”</b></blockquote></p><p>The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.</p><p><blockquote>美联储以前来过这里。上世纪90年代末，为了应对亚洲金融危机和对冲基金长期资本管理公司（Long-Term Capital Management）濒临倒闭，它愿意降息，这被一些人视为一种隐性的市场支持，助长了随后的互联网泡沫。泡沫破裂后的低利率政策随后被指责推高了房价。两次美联储官员都为他们的政策辩护，认为仅仅为了防止泡沫而加息（或不降息）将损害他们低失业率和低通胀的主要目标，并且比让泡沫自行破裂造成更大的危害。</blockquote></p><p>As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.</p><p><blockquote>至于今年，央行在本周的一份报告中警告说，资产 “估值普遍较高”，“如果投资者风险偏好下降、遏制病毒进展令人失望或复苏停滞，资产估值很容易大幅下跌”。4 月 28 日，鲍威尔先生承认市场看起来 “有点泡沫”，美联储可能是原因之一： “我不会说这与货币政策无关，但它与疫苗接种和经济重新开放有很大关系”。但他没有暗示美联储即将缩减刺激计划： “经济距离我们的目标还有很长的路要走”。美国劳工部周五发布的一份报告显示，4 月份新增就业岗位远低于华尔街预期，这凸显了这一点。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储的选择深受金融危机的影响。尽管美联储将利率降至接近于零并购买了债券，但随着家庭、银行和政府寻求偿还债务，美联储正在应对强大的阻力。这抑制了支出，并将通胀率推至美联储 2% 的目标以下。人口老龄化等根深蒂固的力量也抑制了经济增长和利率，这种组合被一些人称为 “长期停滞”。</blockquote></p><p>The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>一年前的疫情关闭引发了对经济产出的打击，最初比金融危机更严重。但两个月后，随着限制的放松和企业适应社交距离，经济活动开始复苏。美联储启动了新的贷款计划，国会通过了2.2万亿美元的Cares法案。疫苗比预期的要早到达。美国经济可能会在本季度达到大流行前的规模，比金融危机后快两年。</blockquote></p><p>And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>然而，即使前景有所改善，财政和货币机会仍然敞开。去年 5 月，民主党人首次提出额外 3 万亿美元的刺激计划，当时预计去年产出将下降 6%。它实际上下降了不到一半，但民主党人在赢得白宫和国会后，推动了同样规模的刺激计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.</p><p><blockquote>美联储于2020年3月开始购买债券，以应对市场的混乱状况。夏末，随着市场运作正常，它延长了该计划，同时将基本原理转向保持较低的债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，它公布了一个新框架：在通胀率多年低于 2% 之后，它的目标是将通胀率不仅推回 2%，而且推高，以便随着时间的推移，平均通胀率和预期通胀率都将稳定在 2%。为此，它承诺在恢复充分就业、通货膨胀率为 2% 并继续走高之前不会加息。官员们预测这种情况在 2024 年之前不会发生，尽管前景显着改善，但此后仍坚持这一指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Running of the bulls</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奔牛</b></blockquote></p><p>This injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&amp;P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的一项调查显示，向因疫苗接种而已经反弹的经济注入前所未有的货币和财政刺激措施，这就是华尔街策略师自上次金融危机前以来最看好股市的原因。虽然利润预测大幅上升，但股市涨幅更大。根据 FactSet 的数据，标普500股票指数目前的交易价格约为来年利润的 22 倍，这一水平只有在 2000 年互联网繁荣鼎盛时期才超过。</blockquote></p><p>Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.</p><p><blockquote>其他资产市场也同样捉襟见肘。彭博巴克莱数据显示，投资者愿意以至少自 1995 年以来最低的收益率以及自 2007 年以来最窄的高于安全国债的利差购买垃圾级公司债券。经通货膨胀调整后，住宅和商业地产价格接近2006年达到的峰值。</blockquote></p><p>Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.</p><p><blockquote>今天的股票和房地产估值比2000年或2006年更合理，因为无风险国债的回报率要低得多。从这个意义上说，美联储的政策正在按照预期发挥作用：改善经济前景，这对利润、住房需求和企业信誉都有好处；以及对风险的偏好。</blockquote></p><p>Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，低利率已不足以证明某些资产估值的合理性。相反，多头会调用替代指标。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行最近指出，碳排放量相对较低、用水效率较高的公司获得了更高的估值。这些估值并不是现金流或利润前景优越的结果，而是根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准投资的资金浪潮。</blockquote></p><p>Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.</p><p><blockquote>传统估值对于不赚取利息、租金或股息的加密货币也毫无用处。相反，倡导者声称数字货币将取代央行发行的法定货币，成为交易媒介和价值储存手段。加密货币交易所 Coinbase GlobalInc. 的首次公开募股招股说明书称：“加密货币有潜力像互联网一样具有革命性和广泛采用。”根据信息服务机构 CoinDesk 的数据，截至 4 月 29 日，加密货币价值超过 2 万亿美元，大致相当于所有流通中的美元。</blockquote></p><p>Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>金融创新也在发挥作用，就像过去的金融繁荣一样。投资组合保险是一种旨在对冲市场损失的策略，在 1987 年股市崩盘期间放大了抛售。20 世纪 90 年代，互联网股票经纪人推动了科技股的上涨，21 世纪初，次级抵押贷款衍生品帮助为住房融资。如今，相当于零佣金经纪商，如Robinhood Markets Inc.、部分所有权和社交媒体，所有这些都赋予了个人投资者权力。</blockquote></p><p>Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&amp;P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.</p><p><blockquote>根据世界各国央行财团国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlements）最近的一份报告，这类投资者对整体市场的走向产生了越来越大的影响。例如，它发现，自2017年以来，追踪机构投资者最喜欢的标普500的交易所交易基金的交易量已经持平，而个人投资者更喜欢的成分股的交易量已经攀升。报告指出，个人更有可能出于与其基本业务无关的原因购买一家公司的股票--例如，因为该公司的名称与另一只正在上涨的股票相似。</blockquote></p><p>While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这种猜测通常归咎于美联储，但很难划清界限。财政刺激并非如此。金融研究公司 Bianco Research 的负责人吉姆·比安科 (Jim Bianco) 表示，随着财政部发放 1,400 美元的刺激支票，3 月份流入交易所交易基金和共同基金的资金激增。“比安科先生说：”你用支票做的第一件事就是把它存入你的账户，到 2021 年，这就是你的经纪账户。</blockquote></p><p><b>Facing the future</b></p><p><blockquote><b>面向未来</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>It’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.</p><p><blockquote>我们无法预测这一切将如何结束，甚至是否会结束。事实并非如此： 高价股票最终可能会获得必要的利润，以证明今天的估值是合理的，尤其是在目前经济处于领先地位的情况下。与此同时，随着利润令人失望或竞争的出现，更极端的投机活动可能会在自身压力下崩溃。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.</p><p><blockquote>比特币曾威胁要取代美元；现在许多竞争对手都声称要做同样的事情。 TeslaInc 曾经是您可以购买的唯一一只押注电动汽车的股票；现在有中国的蔚来公司、尼古拉公司和菲斯克公司，更不用说大众汽车公司和通用汽车公司等老牌制造商了，它们正在推出越来越多的电动车型。</blockquote></p><p>But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>但资产全面下跌可能涉及某种宏观经济事件，例如经济衰退、金融危机或通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上周的报告称，该病毒仍然是经济乃至金融体系的最大威胁。四月份的就业失望提醒人们，经济前景依然不稳定。尽管如此，随着病毒的消退，经济衰退现在似乎不太可能。不能排除金融危机与某种隐藏的脆弱性有关。尽管如此，银行拥有如此多的资本，抵押贷款承销如此紧张，以至于类似于 2007-09 年金融危机（始于抵押贷款违约）的情况似乎不太可能发生。如果垃圾债券、加密货币或科技股主要是用借来的钱购买的，那么它们的价值暴跌可能会引发一波强制抛售、破产和潜在的危机。但这似乎并没有发生。Archegos Capital Management 最近因衍生品股票投资逆转而倒闭，给其贷款人造成了损失。但这并没有威胁到它们的生存，也没有引发对类似情况的公司的传染。</blockquote></p><p>“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”</p><p><blockquote>“第二个阿奇戈斯在哪里？”比安科先生说。“还没有。”</blockquote></p><p>That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了通货膨胀。由于半导体、木材和工人短缺，对通货膨胀的担忧现在很普遍，都给价格和成本带来了上行压力。大多数预测者和美联储认为，一旦经济重新开放和正常支出模式恢复正常，这些压力将会缓解。尽管如此，普通债券收益率和通胀指数债券收益率之间的差异表明，投资者预计未来几年的平均通胀率约为 2.5%。这几乎不是 20 世纪 70 年代的重演，也符合美联储提出的长期平均通胀率 2% 的新目标。尽管如此，这将明显突破过去十年低于2%的范围。</blockquote></p><p>Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw &amp; Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.</p><p><blockquote>通胀略有上升将导致美联储将短期利率设定得也略有上升，这不一定会损害股票估值。更令人担忧的是：对股票价值至关重要的长期债券收益率可能会大幅上升。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，债券和股票价格往往走向相反的方向。这是因为，当通货膨胀不令人担忧时，经济冲击往往会压低债券收益率（与价格走势相反）和股票价格。因此，债券充当了针对股票损失的保险政策，投资者愿意接受较低的收益率。如果通货膨胀再次成为问题，那么债券就会失去保险价值，收益率就会上升。现任对冲基金 D.E. 的前美联储经济学家布莱恩·萨克 (Brian Sack) 表示，近几个月来，过去几十年大部分时间里存在的股票与债券的相关性开始消失。肖有限公司。他将这部分归因于通货膨胀担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，通货膨胀主导了金融格局，这导致投资者对资产定价，就好像通货膨胀永远不会再产生这种影响一样。他们可能是对的。但是，如果史无前例的货币和财政刺激组合成功地将经济从过去十年的模式中拉出来，那么这种自满情绪可能会付出相当大的代价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happens-to-stocks-and-cryptocurrencies-when-the-fed-stops-raining-money-11620446420?mod=itp_wsj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122089368","content_text":"To veterans of financial bubbles, there is plenty familiar about the present. Stock valuations are their richest since the dot-com bubble in 2000. Home prices are back to their pre-financial crisis peak. Risky companies can borrow at the lowest rates on record. Individual investors are pouring money into green energy and cryptocurrency.This boom has some legitimate explanations, from the advances in digital commerce to fiscally greased growth that will likely be the strongest since 1983.But there is one driver above all: the Federal Reserve. Easy monetary policy has regularly fueled financial booms, and it is exceptionally easy now. The Fed has kept interest rates near zero for the past year and signaled rates won’t change for at least two more years. It is buying hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. As a result, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is well below inflation—that is, real yields are deeply negative —for only the second time in 40 years.There are good reasons why rates are so low. The Fed acted in response to a pandemic that at its most intense threatened even more damage than the 2007-09 financial crisis. Yet in great part thanks to the Fed and Congress, which has passed some $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, this recovery looks much healthier than the last. That could undermine the reasons for such low rates, threatening the underpinnings of market.“Equity markets at a minimum are priced to perfection on the assumption rates will be low for a long time,” said Harvard University economist Jeremy Stein, who served as a Fed governor alongside now-chairman Jerome Powell. “And certainly you get the sense the Fed is trying really hard to say, ‘Everything is fine, we’re in no rush to raise rates.’ But while I don’t think we’re headed for sustained high inflation it’s completely possible we’ll have several quarters of hot readings on inflation.”Since stocks’ valuations are only justified if interest rates stay extremely low, how do they reprice if the Fed has to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation and bond yields rise one to 1.5 percentage points, he asked. “You could get a serious correction in asset prices.”‘A bit frothy’The Fed has been here before. In the late 1990s its willingness to cut rates in response to the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was seen by some as an implicit market backstop, inflating the ensuing dot-com bubble. Its low-rate policy in the wake of that collapsed bubble was then blamed for driving up housing prices. Both times Fed officials defended their policy, arguing that to raise rates (or not cut them) simply to prevent bubbles would compromise their main goals of low unemployment and inflation, and do more harm than letting the bubble deflate on its own.As for this year, in a report this week the central bank warned asset “valuations are generally high” and “vulnerable to significant declines should investor risk appetite fall, progress on containing the virus disappoint, or the recovery stall.” On April 28 Mr. Powell acknowledged markets look “a bit frothy” and the Fed might be one of the reasons: “I won’t say it has nothing to do with monetary policy, but it has a tremendous amount to do with vaccination and reopening of the economy.” But he gave no hint the Fed was about to dial back its stimulus: “The economy is a long way from our goals.” A Labor Department report Friday showing that far fewer jobs were created in April than Wall Street expected underlined that.The Fed’s choices are heavily influenced by the financial crisis. While the Fed cut rates to near zero and bought bonds then as well, it was battling powerful headwinds as households, banks, and governments sought to pay down debts. That held back spending and pushed inflation below the Fed’s 2% target. Deeper-seated forces such as aging populations also held down growth and interest rates, a combination some dubbed “secular stagnation.”The pandemic shutdown a year ago triggered a hit to economic output that was initially worse than the financial crisis. But after two months, economic activity began to recover as restrictions eased and businesses adapted to social distancing. The Fed initiated new lending programs and Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Cares Act. Vaccines arrived sooner than expected. The U.S. economy is likely to hit its pre-pandemic size in the current quarter, two years faster than after the financial crisis.And yet even as the outlook has improved, the fiscal and monetary taps remain wide open. Democrats first proposed an additional $3 trillion in stimulus last May when output was expected to fall 6% last year. It actually fell less than half that, but Democrats, after winning both the White House and Congress, pressed ahead with the same size stimulus.The Fed began buying bonds in March, 2020 to counter chaotic conditions in markets. In late summer, with markets functioning normally, it extended the program while tilting the rationale toward keeping bond yields low.At the same time it unveiled a new framework: After years of inflation running below 2%, it would aim to push inflation not just back to 2% but higher, so that over time average and expected inflation would both stabilize at 2%. To that end, it promised not to raise rates until full employment had been restored and inflation was 2% and headed higher. Officials predicted that would not happen before 2024 and have since stuck to that guidance despite a significantly improving outlook.Running of the bullsThis injection of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus into an economy already rebounding thanks to vaccinations is why Wall Street strategists are their most bullish on stocks since before the last financial crisis, according to a survey byBank of AmericaCorp.While profit forecasts have risen briskly, stocks have risen more. The S&P 500 stock index now trades at about 22 times the coming year’s profits, according to FactSet, a level only exceeded at the peak of the dot-com boom in 2000.Other asset markets are similarly stretched. Investors are willing to buy the bonds of junk-rated companies at the lowest yields since at least 1995, and the narrowest spread above safe Treasurys since 2007, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. Residential and commercial property prices, adjusted for inflation, are around the peak reached in 2006.Stock and property valuations are more justifiable today than in 2000 or in 2006 because the returns on riskless Treasury bonds are so much lower. In that sense, the Fed’s policies are working precisely as intended: improving both the economic outlook, which is good for profits, housing demand, and corporate creditworthiness; and the appetite for risk.Nonetheless, low rates are no longer sufficient to justify some asset valuations. Instead, bulls invoke alternative metrics.Bank of America recently noted companies with relatively low carbon emissions and higher water efficiency earn higher valuations. These valuations aren’t the result of superior cash flow or profit prospects, but a tidal wave of funds invested according to environmental, social and governance, or ESG, criteria.Conventional valuation is also useless for cryptocurrencies which earn no interest, rent or dividends. Instead, advocates claim digital currencies will displace the fiat currencies issued by central banks as a transaction medium and store of value. “Crypto has the potential to be as revolutionary and widely adopted as the internet,” claims the prospectus of the initial public offering of crypto exchangeCoinbase GlobalInc.,in language reminiscent of internet-related IPOs more than two decades earlier. Cryptocurrencies as of April 29 were worth more than $2 trillion, according to CoinDesk, an information service, roughly equivalent to all U.S. dollars in circulation.Financial innovation is also at work, as it has been in past financial booms. Portfolio insurance, a strategy designed to hedge against market losses, amplified selling during the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1990s, internet stockbrokers fueled tech stocks and in the 2000s, subprime mortgage derivatives helped finance housing. The equivalent today are zero commission brokers such as Robinhood Markets Inc., fractional ownership and social media, all of which have empowered individual investors.Such investors increasingly influence the overall market’s direction, according to a recent report by the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of the world’s central banks. It found, for example, that since 2017 trading volume in exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500, a favorite of institutional investors, has flattened while the volume in its component stocks, which individual investors prefer, has climbed. Individuals, it noted, are more likely to buy a company’s shares for reasons unrelated to its underlying business—because, for example, its name is similar to another stock that is on the rise.While such speculation is often blamed on the Fed, drawing a direct line is difficult. Not so with fiscal stimulus. Jim Bianco, the head of financial research firm Bianco Research, said flows into exchange-traded funds and mutual funds jumped in March as the Treasury distributed $1,400 stimulus checks. “The first thing you do with your check is deposit it in your account and in 2021 that’s your brokerage account,” said Mr. Bianco.Facing the futureIt’s impossible to predict how, or even whether, this all ends. It doesn’t have to: High-priced stocks could eventually earn the profits necessary to justify today’s valuations, especially with the economy’s current head of steam. In he meantime, more extreme pockets of speculation may collapse under their own weight as profits disappoint or competition emerges.Bitcoin once threatened to displace the dollar; now numerous competitors purport to do the same.TeslaInc.was once about the only stock you could buy to bet on electric vehicles; now there is China’s NIO Inc.,NikolaCorp., andFiskerInc.,not to mention established manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG andGeneral MotorsCo.that are rolling out ever more electric models.But for assets across the board to fall would likely involve some sort of macroeconomic event, such as a recession, financial crisis, or inflation.The Fed report this past week said the virus remains the biggest threat to the economy and thus the financial system. April’s jobs disappointment was a reminder of how unsettled the economic outlook remains. Still, with the virus in retreat, a recession seems unlikely now. A financial crisis linked to some hidden fragility can’t be ruled out. Still, banks have so much capital and mortgage underwriting is so tight that something similar to the 2007-09 financial crisis, which began with defaulting mortgages, seems remote. If junk bonds, cryptocoins or tech stocks are bought primarily with borrowed money, a plunge in their values could precipitate a wave of forced selling, bankruptcies and potentially a crisis. But that doesn’t seem to have happened. The recent collapse of Archegos Capital Management from reversals on derivatives-based stock investments inflicted losses on its lenders. But it didn’t threaten their survival or trigger contagion to similarly situated firms.“Where’s the second Archegos?” said Mr. Bianco. “There hasn’t been one yet.”That leaves inflation. Fear of inflation is widespread now with shortages of semiconductors, lumber, and workers all putting upward pressure on prices and costs. Most forecasters, and the Fed, think those pressures will ease once the economy has reopened and normal spending patterns resume. Nonetheless, the difference between yields on regular and inflation-indexed bond yields suggest investors are expecting inflation in coming years to average about 2.5%. That is hardly a repeat of the 1970s, and compatible with the Fed’s new goal of average 2% inflation over the long term. Nonetheless, it would be a clear break from the sub-2% range of the last decade.Slightly higher inflation would result in the Fed setting short-term interest rates also slightly higher, which need not hurt stock valuations. More worrisome: Long-term bond yields, which are critical to stock values, might rise significantly more. Since the late 1990s, bond and stock prices have tended to move in opposite directions. That is because when inflation isn’t a concern, economic shocks tend to drive both bond yields (which move in the opposite direction to prices) and stock prices down. Bonds thus act as an insurance policy against losses on stocks, for which investors are willing to accept lower yields. If inflation becomes a problem again, then bonds lose that insurance value and their yields will rise. In recent months that stock-bond correlation, in place for most of the last few decades, began to disappear, said Brian Sack, a former Fed economist who is now with hedge fund D.E. Shaw & Co. LP. He attributes that, in part, to inflation concerns.The many years since inflation dominated the financial landscape have led investors to price assets as if inflation never will have that sway again. They may be right. But if the unprecedented combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus succeeds in jolting the economy out of the last decade’s pattern, that complacency could prove quite costly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107763322,"gmtCreate":1620540234466,"gmtModify":1634198137813,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment [Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment [Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107763322","repostId":"1140579879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107769336,"gmtCreate":1620540142125,"gmtModify":1631886010960,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Good 👍🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Good 👍🏻","text":"$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Good 👍🏻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0ecc0770cf953017dcd6bf2a1f254f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107769336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107297766,"gmtCreate":1620495994555,"gmtModify":1634198417256,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market recently quite unstable&nbsp;","listText":"Market recently quite unstable&nbsp;","text":"Market recently quite unstable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107297766","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107297507,"gmtCreate":1620495968809,"gmtModify":1634198417497,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107297507","repostId":"1160802774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160802774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620442206,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160802774?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 10:50","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160802774","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue Un","content":"<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDogecoin price’s ‘make-or-break’ moment looms with Elon Musk set to host ‘Saturday Night Live’<blockquote>狗狗币价格的“成败”时刻迫在眉睫，埃隆-马斯克将主持《周六夜现场》</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 10:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.</p><p><blockquote>尼基·比塞蒂 (Nikki Beesetti) 早在 2017 年就开始投资加密货币，并用她心血来潮购买的一台比特币的销售收入偿还了她在普渡大学的最后一个学期，该收入已飙升至近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin&nbsp;,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>现在，纽约一家初创公司的产品经理正在涉足狗狗币，并认为本周末可能是这种恶搞币的成败时刻，该恶搞币在 2021 年上涨了近 13,000%。</blockquote></p><p>“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p><p><blockquote>“Beesetti 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时说：”本周六将是狗狗币的成败之战。</blockquote></p><p>“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”如果他真的能把信息传递正确，狗狗币就能真正起飞.或者它会崩溃到任何它想崩溃的地方。</blockquote></p><p>The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.</p><p><blockquote>这位 25 岁的投资者是众多相对年轻的交易者之一，他们作为所谓的笑话资产造币厂百万富翁，涌入狗狗币等投机性山寨币，并引起了人们对新生加密货币综合体中形成泡沫的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p>Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn&nbsp;cheers and jeers.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克将于本周末主持美国全国广播公司（NBC）的深夜电视直播喜剧小品节目《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live），他的亮相已经引起了欢呼和嘲笑。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla&nbsp;has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge,&nbsp;tweeting back on April 1&nbsp;that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克一直是狗狗币和加密货币的最大啦啦队员之一。这位自称为 “技术专家 ”的特斯拉主要利用他在社交媒体上的大量粉丝来抬高 doge 的价格，他早在 4 月 1 日就在推特上表示，他将使用他的 SpaceX 火箭将实体 doge 硬币放在月球上，这与社交媒体上将硬币价格 “推向月球 ”的目标相呼应。</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.</p><p><blockquote>比塞蒂说，她第一次涉足狗狗币--她还投资科技股和交易所交易基金--是在马斯克去年夏天的社交媒体信件的推动下。</blockquote></p><p>She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.</p><p><blockquote>她在狗狗币的交易价格为1美分的3/10时购买了它，尽管去年8月它达到了1美分左右，但她仍保持了她在2013年创建的数字资产中的平均美元成本头寸。</blockquote></p><p>Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin&nbsp;and Ethereum&nbsp;,the two largest cryptos in the world.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克已成为 Reddit 等网站上狗狗币持有者的集结点，他即将出现在《SNL》节目中，这在加密货币市场内外都是一个备受期待的时刻，而加密货币市场主要集中在比特币和以太币这两个世界上最大的加密货币上。</blockquote></p><p>Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币长期以来一直是数字资产领域的笑话货币，但不可否认的是，它飙升的价值吸引了主街和华尔街的注意--至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p>Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>前《周六夜现场》剧组成员、喜剧演员大卫-斯派德（David Spade）周四在推特上表示，他想知道马斯克出现在小品节目中是否相当于 doge 的 90 分钟信息广告，并补充说，也许是半开玩笑地说，他正在购买狗狗币。</blockquote></p><p>Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com&nbsp;have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.</p><p><blockquote>博彩平台SportsBettingDime.com的博彩公司已经为马斯克出现在《周六夜现场》节目中提供了一些道具投注，包括他在节目中首先提到的任何加密货币。</blockquote></p><p>Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:</p><p><blockquote>马斯克首先提到的是哪种加密货币：</blockquote></p><p>1. Bitcoin: -200</p><p><blockquote>1. 比特币：-200</blockquote></p><p>2. Dogecoin: +600</p><p><blockquote>2.狗狗币：+600</blockquote></p><p>3. FIELD: +450</p><p><blockquote>3. 字段：+450</blockquote></p><p>4. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400</p><p><blockquote>4. 未提及比特币：+400</blockquote></p><p>Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.</p><p><blockquote>Beesetti 表示，她最近出售了价值约 8,000 美元的 dogecoin，购买了一双 Gucci 鞋、一部 iPhone，并提高了她在以太币协议 Ether thar 运行中的地位，但除此之外，她一直是 doge 的稳定持有者。</blockquote></p><p>The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者不愿提供具体数字，但表示她目前持有的狗狗币在 5 万到 10 万个之间。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.</p><p><blockquote>也许与 doge 的一些投资者不同，她并不幻想它具有效用，而是接受了 momentum 可以在模仿资产中建立这种可能性，以至于它可以伪造自己的合法性。</blockquote></p><p>“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”</p><p><blockquote>“Doge 没有内在价值，”Beesetti 说。“如果你和一群人相信它，这种价值就会变得真实。在这种情况下，相信它的团体和人比以前更多了”。</blockquote></p><p>That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，至少一位分析师表示，周日早上，现实可能会对模因币持有者造成沉重打击。</blockquote></p><p>“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term&nbsp;Dogecoin&nbsp;bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 高级市场分析师爱德华-莫亚（Edward Moya）在一份研究报告中写道：”在 SNL 之后，一些加密货币交易员可能会放弃对狗狗币的短期押注，一旦狗狗币没有飙升至月球或处于备受关注的 1 美元水平。</blockquote></p><p>The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师还指出，狗狗币投资者（在加密货币世界中被称为霍德勒）的坚定信念可能会违背逻辑并保持价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.</p><p><blockquote>“Oanda 策略师说：”一直致力于 Doge 的零售大军可能仍然顽固地持有 Doge，因此，如果没有出现卖出事件的反应，我们也不应该感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币的结果如何，谁也说不准。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.</p><p><blockquote>“比塞蒂说：”这只是一种备忘录货币，但有时最有趣的结果会变成现实。</blockquote></p><p>That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures&nbsp;are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;and the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index&nbsp;has gained about over 6% so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数其他资产相比，这种迷因货币的表现非常出色。今年迄今为止，黄金期货下跌了3%，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数在2021年上涨了近13%，而纳斯达克综合指数今年迄今为止上涨了6%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-total-make-or-break-for-dogecoin-says-one-crypto-investor-as-elon-musk-prepares-to-host-saturday-night-live-11620413674?mod=associated-press","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160802774","content_text":"Nikki Beesetti started investing in crypto back in 2017 and paid off her final semester at Purdue University with proceeds from the sale of a single bitcoin that she bought on a whim, which had surged to nearly $20,000.Now, the product manager for a startup in New York is dabbling in dogecoin ,and sees this weekend as a possible make-or-break moment for the parody coin that has seen a stratospheric, nearly 13,000% rise in 2021.“This Saturday is going to be a total make-or-break for dogecoin,” Beesetti told MarketWatch in a phone interview.“If he can really get the messaging right, dogecoin can really take off…or it’s going to crash to wherever it’s going to crash to,” she said.The 25-year-old investor is one of a number of relatively young traders who are piling into speculative altcoins like dogecoin as the so-called joke asset mints millionaires and draws some concerns about a bubble forming in the nascent crypto complex.Musk will host NBC’s late-night live television comedy sketch show, “Saturday Night Live,” this weekend and his coming appearance has already drawn cheers and jeers.Musk has been one of the biggest cheerleaders for dogecoin and crypto broadly. The self-appointed “Technoking” of Tesla has been mostly using his massive social media following to pump up the price of doge, tweeting back on April 1 that he would use his SpaceX rockets to put a physical Doge coin on the literal moon, echoing the social media goal of taking the coin’s price “to the moon.”Beesetti said that she first got involved in dogecoin — she also invests in technology stocks and exchange-traded funds — at the prompting of Musk’s social-media missives from last summer.She bought dogecoin when it was trading at 3/10ths of a penny and she kept dollar-cost averaging her position in the digital asset created in 2013 even as it hit around 1 cent last August.Musk has become a rallying point for dogecoin holders on sites like Reddit and his coming appearance on “SNL” is a hotly anticipated moment inside and outside crypto markets, which had largely been centered on bitcoin and Ethereum ,the two largest cryptos in the world.Dogecoin has long held the reputation as a joke currency in the digital-asset realm but it is hard to deny that its surging value has gripped Main Street and Wall Street’s attention — at least momentarily.Former “SNL” cast member and comedian David Spade on Thursday tweeted that he wondered if Musk’s appearance on the sketch show would equate to a 90-minute infomercial for doge, adding, perhaps tongue in cheek that he was buying dogecoin.Oddsmakers at betting platformSportsBettingDime.com have established a number of prop bets about Musk’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live,” including which if any crypto he mentions first on the show.Which cryptocurrency does Musk mention first:1. Bitcoin: -2002. Dogecoin: +6003. FIELD: +4504. Does Not Mention Bitcoin: +400Beesetti said that she sold about $8,000 worth of dogecoin recently to buy a pair of Gucci shoes, an iPhone and upped her position in Ether thar runs on the Ethereum protocol but has otherwise been a steady holder of doge.The investor wouldn’t offer specific figures but said that her holdings currently range from 50,000 to 100,000 dogecoin.Perhaps unlike some investors in doge, she is under no illusion that it has utility but submits to the possibility that momentum could build in a parody asset to such an extent that it forges its own legitimacy.“Doge doesn’t have intrinsic value,” Beesetti said. “The value becomes real if you and a collective group of people believe in it. And in this case, there are more groups and people than before who believe.”That said, reality could hit meme coin holders hard come Sunday morning, at least one analyst said.“Post-SNL, some crypto traders could abandon short-term Dogecoin bets once it becomes clear that it is not skyrocketing to the moon or at the heavily eyed $1 level,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a research note.The analyst also notes that strong conviction of dogecoin investors,known as hodlers in the crypto world, could defy logic and keep prices buoyant.“The retail-army of traders that have been committed to Doge might remain stubbornly hodlers, so we shouldn’t be surprised if a sell the event reaction does not happen,” the Oanda strategist said.How it all plays out for dogecoin is anyone’s guess.“It’s just a meme currency but sometimes the most entertaining outcome becomes the reality,” Beesetti said.That meme currency has enjoyed a spectacular ride compared against most other assets. Gold futures are down 3% so far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index are up by nearly 13% in 2021, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained about over 6% so far this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":107297333,"gmtCreate":1620495657822,"gmtModify":1631889318244,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>Please get up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>Please get up","text":"$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$Please get up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4defd120e2844ab8faa74a0b42aca415","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107297333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104669087,"gmtCreate":1620385717949,"gmtModify":1631889318244,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>原来有这么多人陪伴着我。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>原来有这么多人陪伴着我。","text":"$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$原来有这么多人陪伴着我。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36a1914496a8875d1fa1b7005f387aef","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104669087","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104614272,"gmtCreate":1620384440896,"gmtModify":1634205627094,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Jiayou jiayou&nbsp;","listText":"Jiayou jiayou&nbsp;","text":"Jiayou jiayou","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d4bdf39e98a788d8564b96d8ad12d9","width":"1125","height":"2046"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104614272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104614136,"gmtCreate":1620384382825,"gmtModify":1631886378157,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$</a>Upset to the max","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T39.SI\">$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$</a>Upset to the max","text":"$SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD(T39.SI)$Upset to the max","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61e2546adce3df1e36b8242c8168f7ae","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104614136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104615296,"gmtCreate":1620384261515,"gmtModify":1634205627772,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Quite upset that I still have pltr stocks around $28.50","listText":"Quite upset that I still have pltr stocks around $28.50","text":"Quite upset that I still have pltr stocks around $28.50","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104615296","repostId":"2133520488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105804303,"gmtCreate":1620285444102,"gmtModify":1631886010962,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Should I sell?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Should I sell?","text":"$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Should I sell?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0ecc0770cf953017dcd6bf2a1f254f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105804303","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105805032,"gmtCreate":1620285322326,"gmtModify":1634206376070,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kinda of upset that I sell it off too fast&nbsp;","listText":"Kinda of upset that I sell it off too fast&nbsp;","text":"Kinda of upset that I sell it off too fast","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68ccdf6d9627fd8684ddb3cb47ef8424","width":"1125","height":"2046"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105805032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102690741,"gmtCreate":1620202650083,"gmtModify":1631886010966,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Jiayou jiayou&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/1F2.SI\">$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$</a>Jiayou jiayou&nbsp;","text":"$UNION GAS HOLDINGS LIMITED(1F2.SI)$Jiayou jiayou","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf9842bb33623ba6bb4b861a5800188","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102690741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106264704,"gmtCreate":1620125779608,"gmtModify":1631889318238,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>伤心难过有人贱卖吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>伤心难过有人贱卖吗？","text":"$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$伤心难过有人贱卖吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8b407fa288042f162716cf5746b8463","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106264704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":106265822,"gmtCreate":1620125620866,"gmtModify":1634207638890,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579095603725368","authorIdStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please get better&nbsp;","listText":"Please get better&nbsp;","text":"Please get better","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106265822","repostId":"1197943594","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197943594","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620124996,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197943594?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 18:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197943594","media":"zerohedge","summary":"An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously sti","content":"<p>An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but is<b>having a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”</b></p><p><blockquote>酒吧的一位老板向我解释说，他已经关闭了整整一年，但奇迹般地仍然活了下来，这要归功于政府注入的大量资金来支付他的租金和维护费用，以及维持重要的员工。他期待着重新开业，但<b>很难找到员工。许多人搬到了佛罗里达。他说，其他人 “乐于靠政府的钱而不是工作生活”。</b></blockquote></p><p> His main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.</p><p><blockquote>他的主要困惑是，政府怎么可能真的有资源在一整年的封锁中维持这么多企业。钱像天上的吗哪一样掉下来。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.”</b></i>  <b>The tree might not be magic but it does exist.</b></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“从我多年的经商经验来看，每一种直觉都告诉我，这不可能是对的。这可能会奏效一段时间，但总得有人来支付这些账单。没有神奇的摇钱树可以实现这样的目标。”</b></i><b>这棵树可能不是魔法，但它确实存在。</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s called the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>它被称为美联储。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals an<b>unprecedented increase in the money supply</b>over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>这是一张令人震惊的国家货币最广泛定义的图表，它揭示了一个<b>货币供应量空前增加</b>过去一年。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b33ab7f69ce98140d3c8541540f2ef5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The effects of such a thing can be&nbsp;difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.</p><p><blockquote>这种事情的影响可能很难追踪。这在很大程度上取决于美联储无法控制的因素。即使试图控制长期影响也可能失败。即便如此，短期影响，加上政府支出前所未有的增加，已经造成了接近全面复苏的表象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.</b>Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>仅从汇总数据来看，美国经济似乎几乎恢复正常。</b>现在的国内生产总值高于大流行前，并有望更高。</blockquote></p><p>   “What’s amazing,”&nbsp;writes&nbsp;the&nbsp;  <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4660a898da3119fd8c2e1fe52ec0d676\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Consumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“有什么了不起的？”<i>华尔街日报</i>“即使就业人数减少了约 5%，美国的产出也几乎与 2019 年第四季度持平。本季度耐用品消费者支出飙升，增长了 41%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Private residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.</p><p><blockquote>私人住宅投资，也就是消费者在住房上的支出，已经超过了上次房地产泡沫破裂的点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33caf9df98a0feeafa86ca8bcea97c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i><b>Is Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>瓦尔哈拉真的就在拐角处吗？新财富？缺点是什么？</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Following a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is&nbsp;climbing&nbsp;at an annualized double-digit rates.</p><p><blockquote>在封锁期间价格暴跌后，消费者价格指数指向通胀迹象。每日价格指数正以年化两位数的速度攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23206631fdd85121a1cd11843355ac6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No question that much of<b>this “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,</b>producing charts we’ve never seen before.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问<b>这种“增长”是由历史性的高政府支出增长推动的，</b>制作我们从未见过的图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534eb09f534aa3ac9615ee5f6299582\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.<b>They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.</b>Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.</p><p><blockquote>这些增长不是从DC的一些资源储备中支付的。<b>他们是通过天文数字般的借贷增长来支付的。</b>以下是公共债务与GDP比率的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf7c01e4270b2641020471739787110\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. The<i>New York Times</i>&nbsp;provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些汇总数据忽略了由于2020年前所未有的极端封锁而发生的巨大错位、扭曲和彻底破坏。这个<i>纽约时报</i>提供了对现有部门相对于疫情封锁之外可能发生的事情的有用分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249fca0e9740cccfe032a35635a8d811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Thus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.</b>The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.</p><p><blockquote><b>因此，美国经济的一些部门正在蓬勃发展到新高，而另一些部门仍处于深度萧条之中。</b>被封锁的行业（娱乐、艺术、食品、酒店、娱乐）和其他受封锁间接影响的行业（出口、运输、能源）仍然沉浸在痛苦之中，受到强制关闭的打击，强制关闭摧毁了如此多的商业模式或迫使它们接受政府救济金。</blockquote></p><p> One of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.</p><p><blockquote>让我着迷的数字之一是医疗保健方面的数字。与没有疫情的情况相比，它仍然下降了 5.9%。未来的历史学家肯定会对这样的数据感到惊讶。在一个疾病和死亡如此之多的疫情，人们会预计医疗保健支出将比以往任何时候都飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Instead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相反，我们在医疗保健方面看到的是在疫情最糟糕的几个月里整整下降了18%，这种说法听起来很荒谬。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services&nbsp;collapsed a year ago by 70%.</p><p><blockquote>这说明了过去一年政府政策中最少被谈论的一个方面：州政府对医疗系统的干预，基本上为科维德病人保留了大部分（如果不是全部的话）医院空间。常规医疗和 “择期手术 ”被暂停。牙科服务一年前崩溃了70%。</blockquote></p><p> This meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着错过了癌症筛查、常规检查和正常的医生就诊，不仅是因为人们害怕，还因为医疗服务面临着前所未有的残酷的中央规划形式。因此，我们得到了人们能想象到的最反常的结果：疫情期间医疗保健支出的崩溃。很难找到一条数据最能体现政府大流行病政策愚蠢之处，但也许这条数据就是它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.<b>But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.</b></p><p><blockquote>从货币供应和支出狂潮到封锁，再到天价债务积累，过去一年来所有这些前所未有的政策冲击，我们不可能确切地知道未来会发生什么。<b>但因为一个叫做因果关系的东西仍然在这个世界上起作用——我们不是生活在虚拟现实中——用严重怀疑的眼光看待看似庞大的汇总数据似乎是明智的。在真正的风暴来临之前，我们可能正处于平静之中。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The US Economy A Virtual Reality?<blockquote>美国经济是虚拟现实吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 18:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but is<b>having a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”</b></p><p><blockquote>酒吧的一位老板向我解释说，他已经关闭了整整一年，但奇迹般地仍然活了下来，这要归功于政府注入的大量资金来支付他的租金和维护费用，以及维持重要的员工。他期待着重新开业，但<b>很难找到员工。许多人搬到了佛罗里达。他说，其他人 “乐于靠政府的钱而不是工作生活”。</b></blockquote></p><p> His main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.</p><p><blockquote>他的主要困惑是，政府怎么可能真的有资源在一整年的封锁中维持这么多企业。钱像天上的吗哪一样掉下来。</blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.”</b></i>  <b>The tree might not be magic but it does exist.</b></p><p><blockquote><i><b>“从我多年的经商经验来看，每一种直觉都告诉我，这不可能是对的。这可能会奏效一段时间，但总得有人来支付这些账单。没有神奇的摇钱树可以实现这样的目标。”</b></i><b>这棵树可能不是魔法，但它确实存在。</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s called the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>它被称为美联储。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals an<b>unprecedented increase in the money supply</b>over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>这是一张令人震惊的国家货币最广泛定义的图表，它揭示了一个<b>货币供应量空前增加</b>过去一年。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b33ab7f69ce98140d3c8541540f2ef5\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The effects of such a thing can be&nbsp;difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.</p><p><blockquote>这种事情的影响可能很难追踪。这在很大程度上取决于美联储无法控制的因素。即使试图控制长期影响也可能失败。即便如此，短期影响，加上政府支出前所未有的增加，已经造成了接近全面复苏的表象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>By the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.</b>Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>仅从汇总数据来看，美国经济似乎几乎恢复正常。</b>现在的国内生产总值高于大流行前，并有望更高。</blockquote></p><p>   “What’s amazing,”&nbsp;writes&nbsp;the&nbsp;  <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4660a898da3119fd8c2e1fe52ec0d676\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Consumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“有什么了不起的？”<i>华尔街日报</i>“即使就业人数减少了约 5%，美国的产出也几乎与 2019 年第四季度持平。本季度耐用品消费者支出飙升，增长了 41%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Private residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.</p><p><blockquote>私人住宅投资，也就是消费者在住房上的支出，已经超过了上次房地产泡沫破裂的点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c33caf9df98a0feeafa86ca8bcea97c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i><b>Is Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>瓦尔哈拉真的就在拐角处吗？新财富？缺点是什么？</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Following a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is&nbsp;climbing&nbsp;at an annualized double-digit rates.</p><p><blockquote>在封锁期间价格暴跌后，消费者价格指数指向通胀迹象。每日价格指数正以年化两位数的速度攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a23206631fdd85121a1cd11843355ac6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"176\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">No question that much of<b>this “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,</b>producing charts we’ve never seen before.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问<b>这种“增长”是由历史性的高政府支出增长推动的，</b>制作我们从未见过的图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3534eb09f534aa3ac9615ee5f6299582\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">These increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.<b>They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.</b>Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.</p><p><blockquote>这些增长不是从DC的一些资源储备中支付的。<b>他们是通过天文数字般的借贷增长来支付的。</b>以下是公共债务与GDP比率的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf7c01e4270b2641020471739787110\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. The<i>New York Times</i>&nbsp;provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些汇总数据忽略了由于2020年前所未有的极端封锁而发生的巨大错位、扭曲和彻底破坏。这个<i>纽约时报</i>提供了对现有部门相对于疫情封锁之外可能发生的事情的有用分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/249fca0e9740cccfe032a35635a8d811\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Thus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.</b>The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.</p><p><blockquote><b>因此，美国经济的一些部门正在蓬勃发展到新高，而另一些部门仍处于深度萧条之中。</b>被封锁的行业（娱乐、艺术、食品、酒店、娱乐）和其他受封锁间接影响的行业（出口、运输、能源）仍然沉浸在痛苦之中，受到强制关闭的打击，强制关闭摧毁了如此多的商业模式或迫使它们接受政府救济金。</blockquote></p><p> One of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.</p><p><blockquote>让我着迷的数字之一是医疗保健方面的数字。与没有疫情的情况相比，它仍然下降了 5.9%。未来的历史学家肯定会对这样的数据感到惊讶。在一个疾病和死亡如此之多的疫情，人们会预计医疗保健支出将比以往任何时候都飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Instead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相反，我们在医疗保健方面看到的是在疫情最糟糕的几个月里整整下降了18%，这种说法听起来很荒谬。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c109802e57d3dabd71e6122ef30cc88\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"156\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services&nbsp;collapsed a year ago by 70%.</p><p><blockquote>这说明了过去一年政府政策中最少被谈论的一个方面：州政府对医疗系统的干预，基本上为科维德病人保留了大部分（如果不是全部的话）医院空间。常规医疗和 “择期手术 ”被暂停。牙科服务一年前崩溃了70%。</blockquote></p><p> This meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着错过了癌症筛查、常规检查和正常的医生就诊，不仅是因为人们害怕，还因为医疗服务面临着前所未有的残酷的中央规划形式。因此，我们得到了人们能想象到的最反常的结果：疫情期间医疗保健支出的崩溃。很难找到一条数据最能体现政府大流行病政策愚蠢之处，但也许这条数据就是它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.<b>But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.</b></p><p><blockquote>从货币供应和支出狂潮到封锁，再到天价债务积累，过去一年来所有这些前所未有的政策冲击，我们不可能确切地知道未来会发生什么。<b>但因为一个叫做因果关系的东西仍然在这个世界上起作用——我们不是生活在虚拟现实中——用严重怀疑的眼光看待看似庞大的汇总数据似乎是明智的。在真正的风暴来临之前，我们可能正处于平静之中。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-economy-virtual-reality\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-economy-virtual-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197943594","content_text":"An owner of the bar explained to me that he has been closed for a full year and yet miraculously still survives, thanks to vast infusions of government money to cover his rent and upkeep and sustain essential employees. He is looking forward to reopening but ishaving a hard time finding employees. Many have moved to Florida. Others, he said, “are happy to live off government money rather than work.”\nHis main puzzle is how it can be true that the government has the resources to sustain so many businesses in a full year of lockdowns. The money is falling like manna from heaven.\n\n“From all my years in business, every instinct tells me that this can’t be right. It might work for a little while but someone has to pay these bills. There is no magic money tree out there to achieve such things.”\n\nThe tree might not be magic but it does exist.\nIt’s called the Federal Reserve.\nHere is the alarming chart of the broadest definition of national money, which reveals anunprecedented increase in the money supplyover the last year.\nThe effects of such a thing can be difficult to trace. And much depends on factors outside the Fed’s control. Even the attempt to reign in the long-run effects could fail. Even so, the short-term effects, combined with unprecedented increases in government spending, have been to create the appearance of near full recovery.\nBy the aggregated data alone, the US economy seems almost back to normal.Gross Domestic Product is higher now than pre-pandemic and poised to roar much higher.\n\n “What’s amazing,” writes the \n Wall Street Journal, “is that U.S. output is nearly what it was in the fourth-quarter of 2019 even with payrolls being about 5% smaller.\n\nConsumer spending on durable goods is through the roof with a 41% increase for the quarter.\nPrivate residential investment, which is to say consumer spending on housing, has blown past the point at which the last housing bubble blew up.\nIs Valhalla really around the corner? New riches? What’s the downside?\nFollowing a lockdown collapse in prices, the consumer price index is pointing toward inflationary signs. The Everyday Price Index is climbing at an annualized double-digit rates.\nNo question that much ofthis “growth” is fueled by historically high increases in government spending,producing charts we’ve never seen before.\nThese increases were not paid out of some resource reserve sitting in DC.They are paid by astronomical increases in borrowing.Here are the increases in the public debt to GDP ratio.\nWhat all this aggregate data misses is the huge dislocations, distortions, and outright destruction that occurred because of the unprecedented use of extreme lockdowns in 2020. TheNew York Times provides a helpful analysis of existing sectors relative to what might have happened outside the pandemic lockdowns.\nThus are some sectors of the US economy booming to new highs, while others are still in deep depression.The sectors that were locked down (entertainment, art, food, hotels, recreation), and those other sectors indirectly affected by lockdowns (exports, transportation, energy) are still wallowing in misery, having been battered by compulsory shutdowns that wrecked so many business models or otherwise forced them onto the government dole.\nOne of the figures that fascinates me is the one on health care. It is still down 5.9% from what it might have been without the pandemic. Historians of the future will surely be amazed by such data. In a pandemic with such tremendous sickness and death, one would expect spending on health care to rocket higher than ever before.\nInstead, what we see in health care is a collapse of fully 18% in the worst months of the pandemic, a statement that sounds ridiculous in the saying.\n\nWhat this illustrates is one of the least-talked-about aspects of government policy over the past year: state government’s interventions in the medical system that essentially reserved most if not all hospital space for Covid patients. Routine medical care and “elective surgery” was put on hold. Dentistry services collapsed a year ago by 70%.\nThis meant missed cancer screenings, routine checkups, and normal doctor’s visits, not only because people were afraid but also because medical services faced a brutal form of central planning that had never previously happened. Thus do we get the most perverse results one can imagine: a collapse of spending on health care during a pandemic. It’s hard to isolate one piece of data that best captures the folly of government pandemic policy but perhaps this one is it.\nIt’s impossible to know precisely what the future portends for all these unprecedented policy shocks over the last year, from money supply and spending bonanzas to lockdowns to sky-high debt accumulation.But because a thing called cause-and-effect still operates in this world – we do not live in virtual reality – it seems wise to look at the seemingly great aggregate data with a gravely skeptical eye. We might be in the midst of the calm before the real storm hits.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":351972060,"gmtCreate":1616558681250,"gmtModify":1631885602172,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Just brought recently. I’m not sure whether to buy more or should monitor at this moment&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Just brought recently. I’m not sure whether to buy more or should monitor at this moment&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Just brought recently. I’m not sure whether to buy more or should monitor at this moment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60f57178386e1e5925a350efecb96d86","width":"1170","height":"2260"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351972060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359012377,"gmtCreate":1616300193899,"gmtModify":1631885602301,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Wantedto ask, now is it too late to get some SIA stocks... pricing has been increasing madly lately&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Wantedto ask, now is it too late to get some SIA stocks... pricing has been increasing madly lately&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Wantedto ask, now is it too late to get some SIA stocks... pricing has been increasing madly lately","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359012377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359019210,"gmtCreate":1616299839630,"gmtModify":1631887137473,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Personally I have confidence for Singtel for long term investment due to previous developments before COVID hits.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Personally I have confidence for Singtel for long term investment due to previous developments before COVID hits.&nbsp;","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Personally I have confidence for Singtel for long term investment due to previous developments before COVID hits.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359019210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":341025425,"gmtCreate":1617763552767,"gmtModify":1634296644430,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think will be $175&nbsp;","listText":"I think will be $175&nbsp;","text":"I think will be $175","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341025425","repostId":"1172555990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353124150,"gmtCreate":1616472357070,"gmtModify":1634525646288,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hopefully palantir can rise more","listText":"Hopefully palantir can rise more","text":"Hopefully palantir can rise more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353124150","repostId":"1185868278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185868278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616471796,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185868278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-23 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This High-Yield Dividend Stock Might Be in Trouble<blockquote>这只高收益股息股票可能遇到麻烦了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185868278","media":"fool","summary":"Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are known for their high-yield dividends, andThe GEO Group(NYS","content":"<p>Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are known for their high-yield dividends, and<b>The GEO Group</b>(NYSE:GEO)is no exception. The company, which owns and manages 123 private domestic secure facilities and post-correctional residential facilities with 93,000 total beds in the United States, Australia, Africa, and the United Kingdom, offers a dividend with an annualized payout of $1 a share. At the company's current share price, that gives it a yield of around 12.6%.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金（REITs）以其高收益股息而闻名，并且<b>GEO集团</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GEO）也不例外。该公司在美国、澳大利亚、非洲和英国拥有并管理 123 个私人家庭安全设施和矫正后住宅设施，共有 93,000 个床位，提供每股 1 美元的年化股息。按照该公司目前的股价计算，其收益率约为 12.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That might sound great ... until you find out why the yield is so high. GEO Group's stock price has fallen by more than 32% in the last year, so despite payout cuts this year and last year, the yield remains high. I'm not that worried about the safety of GEO's dividend, but the company appears to be a classic dividend trap because its revenues are trending downward.</p><p><blockquote>这听起来可能很棒……直到你发现为什么收益率这么高。GEO Group 的股价去年下跌了 32% 以上，因此尽管今年和去年削减了派息，但收益率仍然很高。我并不那么担心 GEO 股息的安全性，但该公司似乎是一个典型的股息陷阱，因为其收入呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The hits keep on coming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>热门歌曲不断出现</b></blockquote></p><p> Last year was difficult for companies that operate private prisons. The COVID-19 pandemic meant extra costs to make prisons and immigrant detention centers safer for workers, inmates, and detainees. It also led to a drop in inmate populations.</p><p><blockquote>去年对于经营私营监狱的公司来说是艰难的一年。新冠肺炎疫情意味着额外的成本，使监狱和移民拘留中心对工人、囚犯和被拘留者更安全。这也导致了囚犯人数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> According to The Marshall Project, the number of people incarcerated in the U.S. fell from 1.3 million in March to 1.2 million by June. Prisons, in an effort to avoid bringing the coronavirus into their populations, stopped accepting new prisoners. Court closures meant fewer people were being sentenced, and parole officers were less active and sent fewer people back to prison for parole violations.</p><p><blockquote>根据马歇尔项目，美国被监禁的人数从3月份的130万下降到6月份的120万。为了避免将冠状病毒带入人群，监狱停止接收新囚犯。法院关闭意味着被判刑的人越来越少，假释官也不那么积极，因违反假释规定而被送回监狱的人也越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, with the change of government in Washington, this isn't the best of times to be in the private prison business. On Jan. 26, President Biden signedan executive orderdirecting the Justice Department not to renew its contracts with private prison operators.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，随着华盛顿政府的更迭，这不是私人监狱行业的最佳时机。1月26日，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，指示司法部不再与私人监狱运营商续签合同。</blockquote></p><p> The order applies to any private facilities connected with the Bureau of Prisons and the U.S. Marshals Service. It doesn't yet apply to all agencies. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, for example, has contracts with private companies, including the GEO Group, to detain undocumented immigrants.</p><p><blockquote>该命令适用于任何与监狱局和美国法警局有关的私人设施。它还不适用于所有机构。例如，移民和海关执法局与包括GEO集团在内的私营公司签订了拘留无证移民的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at a recent investor presentation by the company, it's easy to see that the eventual result of Biden's policy could be a 27% cut to GEO Group's revenue.</p><p><blockquote>看看该公司最近的投资者演示，很容易看出拜登政策的最终结果可能是 GEO Group 的收入减少 27%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ccfe516df8184f834d5e735cc660d07\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: THE GEO GROUP</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：GEO GROUP</blockquote></p><p> Even before the executive order, the Bureau of Prisons chose not to renew its contracts with three GEO facilities; those contracts expire this quarter. The company said its remaining Bureau of Prisons contracts may also not be renewed as they come up.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在行政命令发布之前，监狱局就选择不再与三个GEO设施续签合同；这些合同将于本季度到期。该公司表示，其剩余的监狱局合同也可能不会在到期时续签。</blockquote></p><p> In March, GEO learned that the Marshals Service would not renew its contract for the company's 222-bed Queens Detention Facility in New York. The facility generated $19 million annually in revenues, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>今年 3 月，GEO 获悉，法警署将不再续签该公司位于纽约的拥有 222 个床位的皇后区拘留设施的合同。该公司表示，该设施每年产生 1900 万美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dividend may be safe, but the share price not so much</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息可能很安全，但股价就没那么安全了</b></blockquote></p><p> You have to give GEO credit for doing the smart thing, trimming its quarterlydividend29.2% to 34 cents a share last year and then again by 26.5% to 25 cents a share this year.</p><p><blockquote>你必须称赞 GEO 做了明智的事情，去年将其季度股息削减了 29.2% 至每股 34 美分，今年又削减了 26.5% 至每股 25 美分。</blockquote></p><p> While the cuts are concerning, the dividend appears well covered by the company's expected adjusted funds from operations (FFO) this year, which management said should be in the range of $1.98 per share to $2.08 per share.</p><p><blockquote>虽然削减令人担忧，但该公司今年预期的调整后运营资金 (FFO) 似乎很好地覆盖了股息，管理层表示，该资金应在每股 1.98 美元至 2.08 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> The company's 2020 revenue of $2.35 billionwas down from the $2.47 billion it brought in for 2019, and net income of $113 million was down from $166 million the year before. In the fourth quarter, its revenue of $578.1 million was a 7% drop year over year. It was also the fourth consecutive quarter of top-line declines.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020年的收入为23.5亿美元，低于2019年的24.7亿美元，净利润为1.13亿美元，低于上一年的1.66亿美元。第四季度，其营收为5.781亿美元，同比下降7%。这也是营收连续第四个季度下降。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are better analyzed on the basis of their FFOs, and those metrics fell for GEO Group as well. The company reported yearly normalized FFO of $229.3 million, down from $260.7 million in 2019; adjusted FFO was $300.6 million, compared to $328.4 million in 2019. GEO's adjusted FFO last year was at its lowest level since 2016.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金最好根据其 FFO 进行分析，GEO Group 的这些指标也有所下降。该公司报告年度正常化 FFO 为 2.293 亿美元，低于 2019 年的 2.607 亿美元；调整后 FFO 为 3.006 亿美元，而 2019 年为 3.284 亿美元。GEO去年调整后的FFO处于2016年以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GEO Group is fighting against trends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GEO Group 正在对抗趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Unlike some REITs that were adversely affected during the global pandemic by tenants that had difficulty paying the rent, GEO's customers are government agencies that always pay the rent on time.</p><p><blockquote>与一些在全球大流行期间因租户难以支付租金而受到不利影响的房地产投资信托基金不同，GEO的客户是总是按时支付租金的政府机构。</blockquote></p><p> The difficulty GEO faces is that the population of prisoners in its facilities has been dropping, and that trend appears likely to continue. That means reduced revenue, which to investors means the stock's share price could continue to drop, and also increases the likelihood that the company could cut its dividend further.</p><p><blockquote>GEO面临的困难是，其设施中的囚犯人数一直在下降，而且这一趋势似乎可能会继续下去。这意味着收入减少，这对投资者来说意味着该股股价可能会继续下跌，也增加了公司进一步削减股息的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> To some degree, the future revenue declines may have already been priced into the stock, but as an investor, I don't see upside for GEO Group any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，未来收入下降可能已经反映在该股中，但作为一名投资者，我认为 GEO Group 不会很快出现上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This High-Yield Dividend Stock Might Be in Trouble<blockquote>这只高收益股息股票可能遇到麻烦了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis High-Yield Dividend Stock Might Be in Trouble<blockquote>这只高收益股息股票可能遇到麻烦了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-23 11:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are known for their high-yield dividends, and<b>The GEO Group</b>(NYSE:GEO)is no exception. The company, which owns and manages 123 private domestic secure facilities and post-correctional residential facilities with 93,000 total beds in the United States, Australia, Africa, and the United Kingdom, offers a dividend with an annualized payout of $1 a share. At the company's current share price, that gives it a yield of around 12.6%.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金（REITs）以其高收益股息而闻名，并且<b>GEO集团</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GEO）也不例外。该公司在美国、澳大利亚、非洲和英国拥有并管理 123 个私人家庭安全设施和矫正后住宅设施，共有 93,000 个床位，提供每股 1 美元的年化股息。按照该公司目前的股价计算，其收益率约为 12.6%。</blockquote></p><p> That might sound great ... until you find out why the yield is so high. GEO Group's stock price has fallen by more than 32% in the last year, so despite payout cuts this year and last year, the yield remains high. I'm not that worried about the safety of GEO's dividend, but the company appears to be a classic dividend trap because its revenues are trending downward.</p><p><blockquote>这听起来可能很棒……直到你发现为什么收益率这么高。GEO Group 的股价去年下跌了 32% 以上，因此尽管今年和去年削减了派息，但收益率仍然很高。我并不那么担心 GEO 股息的安全性，但该公司似乎是一个典型的股息陷阱，因为其收入呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The hits keep on coming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>热门歌曲不断出现</b></blockquote></p><p> Last year was difficult for companies that operate private prisons. The COVID-19 pandemic meant extra costs to make prisons and immigrant detention centers safer for workers, inmates, and detainees. It also led to a drop in inmate populations.</p><p><blockquote>去年对于经营私营监狱的公司来说是艰难的一年。新冠肺炎疫情意味着额外的成本，使监狱和移民拘留中心对工人、囚犯和被拘留者更安全。这也导致了囚犯人数的下降。</blockquote></p><p> According to The Marshall Project, the number of people incarcerated in the U.S. fell from 1.3 million in March to 1.2 million by June. Prisons, in an effort to avoid bringing the coronavirus into their populations, stopped accepting new prisoners. Court closures meant fewer people were being sentenced, and parole officers were less active and sent fewer people back to prison for parole violations.</p><p><blockquote>根据马歇尔项目，美国被监禁的人数从3月份的130万下降到6月份的120万。为了避免将冠状病毒带入人群，监狱停止接收新囚犯。法院关闭意味着被判刑的人越来越少，假释官也不那么积极，因违反假释规定而被送回监狱的人也越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, with the change of government in Washington, this isn't the best of times to be in the private prison business. On Jan. 26, President Biden signedan executive orderdirecting the Justice Department not to renew its contracts with private prison operators.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，随着华盛顿政府的更迭，这不是私人监狱行业的最佳时机。1月26日，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，指示司法部不再与私人监狱运营商续签合同。</blockquote></p><p> The order applies to any private facilities connected with the Bureau of Prisons and the U.S. Marshals Service. It doesn't yet apply to all agencies. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, for example, has contracts with private companies, including the GEO Group, to detain undocumented immigrants.</p><p><blockquote>该命令适用于任何与监狱局和美国法警局有关的私人设施。它还不适用于所有机构。例如，移民和海关执法局与包括GEO集团在内的私营公司签订了拘留无证移民的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at a recent investor presentation by the company, it's easy to see that the eventual result of Biden's policy could be a 27% cut to GEO Group's revenue.</p><p><blockquote>看看该公司最近的投资者演示，很容易看出拜登政策的最终结果可能是 GEO Group 的收入减少 27%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ccfe516df8184f834d5e735cc660d07\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: THE GEO GROUP</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：GEO GROUP</blockquote></p><p> Even before the executive order, the Bureau of Prisons chose not to renew its contracts with three GEO facilities; those contracts expire this quarter. The company said its remaining Bureau of Prisons contracts may also not be renewed as they come up.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在行政命令发布之前，监狱局就选择不再与三个GEO设施续签合同；这些合同将于本季度到期。该公司表示，其剩余的监狱局合同也可能不会在到期时续签。</blockquote></p><p> In March, GEO learned that the Marshals Service would not renew its contract for the company's 222-bed Queens Detention Facility in New York. The facility generated $19 million annually in revenues, the company said.</p><p><blockquote>今年 3 月，GEO 获悉，法警署将不再续签该公司位于纽约的拥有 222 个床位的皇后区拘留设施的合同。该公司表示，该设施每年产生 1900 万美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dividend may be safe, but the share price not so much</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股息可能很安全，但股价就没那么安全了</b></blockquote></p><p> You have to give GEO credit for doing the smart thing, trimming its quarterlydividend29.2% to 34 cents a share last year and then again by 26.5% to 25 cents a share this year.</p><p><blockquote>你必须称赞 GEO 做了明智的事情，去年将其季度股息削减了 29.2% 至每股 34 美分，今年又削减了 26.5% 至每股 25 美分。</blockquote></p><p> While the cuts are concerning, the dividend appears well covered by the company's expected adjusted funds from operations (FFO) this year, which management said should be in the range of $1.98 per share to $2.08 per share.</p><p><blockquote>虽然削减令人担忧，但该公司今年预期的调整后运营资金 (FFO) 似乎很好地覆盖了股息，管理层表示，该资金应在每股 1.98 美元至 2.08 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> The company's 2020 revenue of $2.35 billionwas down from the $2.47 billion it brought in for 2019, and net income of $113 million was down from $166 million the year before. In the fourth quarter, its revenue of $578.1 million was a 7% drop year over year. It was also the fourth consecutive quarter of top-line declines.</p><p><blockquote>该公司2020年的收入为23.5亿美元，低于2019年的24.7亿美元，净利润为1.13亿美元，低于上一年的1.66亿美元。第四季度，其营收为5.781亿美元，同比下降7%。这也是营收连续第四个季度下降。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are better analyzed on the basis of their FFOs, and those metrics fell for GEO Group as well. The company reported yearly normalized FFO of $229.3 million, down from $260.7 million in 2019; adjusted FFO was $300.6 million, compared to $328.4 million in 2019. GEO's adjusted FFO last year was at its lowest level since 2016.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金最好根据其 FFO 进行分析，GEO Group 的这些指标也有所下降。该公司报告年度正常化 FFO 为 2.293 亿美元，低于 2019 年的 2.607 亿美元；调整后 FFO 为 3.006 亿美元，而 2019 年为 3.284 亿美元。GEO去年调整后的FFO处于2016年以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GEO Group is fighting against trends</b></p><p><blockquote><b>GEO Group 正在对抗趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Unlike some REITs that were adversely affected during the global pandemic by tenants that had difficulty paying the rent, GEO's customers are government agencies that always pay the rent on time.</p><p><blockquote>与一些在全球大流行期间因租户难以支付租金而受到不利影响的房地产投资信托基金不同，GEO的客户是总是按时支付租金的政府机构。</blockquote></p><p> The difficulty GEO faces is that the population of prisoners in its facilities has been dropping, and that trend appears likely to continue. That means reduced revenue, which to investors means the stock's share price could continue to drop, and also increases the likelihood that the company could cut its dividend further.</p><p><blockquote>GEO面临的困难是，其设施中的囚犯人数一直在下降，而且这一趋势似乎可能会继续下去。这意味着收入减少，这对投资者来说意味着该股股价可能会继续下跌，也增加了公司进一步削减股息的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> To some degree, the future revenue declines may have already been priced into the stock, but as an investor, I don't see upside for GEO Group any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，未来收入下降可能已经反映在该股中，但作为一名投资者，我认为 GEO Group 不会很快出现上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/22/this-high-yield-dividend-stock-might-be-in-trouble/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/22/this-high-yield-dividend-stock-might-be-in-trouble/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185868278","content_text":"Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are known for their high-yield dividends, andThe GEO Group(NYSE:GEO)is no exception. The company, which owns and manages 123 private domestic secure facilities and post-correctional residential facilities with 93,000 total beds in the United States, Australia, Africa, and the United Kingdom, offers a dividend with an annualized payout of $1 a share. At the company's current share price, that gives it a yield of around 12.6%.\nThat might sound great ... until you find out why the yield is so high. GEO Group's stock price has fallen by more than 32% in the last year, so despite payout cuts this year and last year, the yield remains high. I'm not that worried about the safety of GEO's dividend, but the company appears to be a classic dividend trap because its revenues are trending downward.\nThe hits keep on coming\nLast year was difficult for companies that operate private prisons. The COVID-19 pandemic meant extra costs to make prisons and immigrant detention centers safer for workers, inmates, and detainees. It also led to a drop in inmate populations.\nAccording to The Marshall Project, the number of people incarcerated in the U.S. fell from 1.3 million in March to 1.2 million by June. Prisons, in an effort to avoid bringing the coronavirus into their populations, stopped accepting new prisoners. Court closures meant fewer people were being sentenced, and parole officers were less active and sent fewer people back to prison for parole violations.\nOn top of that, with the change of government in Washington, this isn't the best of times to be in the private prison business. On Jan. 26, President Biden signedan executive orderdirecting the Justice Department not to renew its contracts with private prison operators.\nThe order applies to any private facilities connected with the Bureau of Prisons and the U.S. Marshals Service. It doesn't yet apply to all agencies. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, for example, has contracts with private companies, including the GEO Group, to detain undocumented immigrants.\nLooking at a recent investor presentation by the company, it's easy to see that the eventual result of Biden's policy could be a 27% cut to GEO Group's revenue.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: THE GEO GROUP\nEven before the executive order, the Bureau of Prisons chose not to renew its contracts with three GEO facilities; those contracts expire this quarter. The company said its remaining Bureau of Prisons contracts may also not be renewed as they come up.\nIn March, GEO learned that the Marshals Service would not renew its contract for the company's 222-bed Queens Detention Facility in New York. The facility generated $19 million annually in revenues, the company said.\nThe dividend may be safe, but the share price not so much\nYou have to give GEO credit for doing the smart thing, trimming its quarterlydividend29.2% to 34 cents a share last year and then again by 26.5% to 25 cents a share this year.\nWhile the cuts are concerning, the dividend appears well covered by the company's expected adjusted funds from operations (FFO) this year, which management said should be in the range of $1.98 per share to $2.08 per share.\nThe company's 2020 revenue of $2.35 billionwas down from the $2.47 billion it brought in for 2019, and net income of $113 million was down from $166 million the year before. In the fourth quarter, its revenue of $578.1 million was a 7% drop year over year. It was also the fourth consecutive quarter of top-line declines.\nREITs are better analyzed on the basis of their FFOs, and those metrics fell for GEO Group as well. The company reported yearly normalized FFO of $229.3 million, down from $260.7 million in 2019; adjusted FFO was $300.6 million, compared to $328.4 million in 2019. GEO's adjusted FFO last year was at its lowest level since 2016.\nGEO Group is fighting against trends\nUnlike some REITs that were adversely affected during the global pandemic by tenants that had difficulty paying the rent, GEO's customers are government agencies that always pay the rent on time.\nThe difficulty GEO faces is that the population of prisoners in its facilities has been dropping, and that trend appears likely to continue. That means reduced revenue, which to investors means the stock's share price could continue to drop, and also increases the likelihood that the company could cut its dividend further.\nTo some degree, the future revenue declines may have already been priced into the stock, but as an investor, I don't see upside for GEO Group any time soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":378910339,"gmtCreate":1618989642321,"gmtModify":1634289380312,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls ☺️","listText":"Like and comment pls ☺️","text":"Like and comment pls ☺️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378910339","repostId":"1184581987","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184581987","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618988658,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184581987?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-21 15:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"House Passes a Cannabis Banking Bill. Will the Senate Follow Suit?<blockquote>众议院通过大麻银行法案。参议院会效仿吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184581987","media":"Barrons","summary":"A bill to allow interstate banks to serve state-licensed cannabis operators was passed by a wide mar","content":"<p>A bill to allow interstate banks to serve state-licensed cannabis operators was passed by a wide margin Monday by the U.S. House of Representatives.The SAFE Banking Actrepresents the first move by a Democratic-controlled Congress to ease up on a fast-growing industry whose product is still illegal under federal law. Similar bills have passed the House before, but approval by the Senate and the White House look more likely this year.</p><p><blockquote>美国众议院周一以较大优势通过了一项允许州际银行为州许可的大麻运营商提供服务的法案。《安全银行法案》代表了民主党控制的国会为放松对一个快速增长的行业的监管而采取的第一步，该行业的产品根据联邦法律仍然是非法的。类似的法案以前已经在众议院通过，但今年参议院和白宫的批准看起来更有可能。</blockquote></p><p> The bill passed in a strongly bipartisan vote of 321-101, and was timed for the day ahead of April 20,the annual 4/20 celebrationof cannabis reform. Against a 0.7% dip in Tuesday’s stock market, shares of U.S. cannabis operators fell in over-the-counter trading and on the Canadian Securities Exchange, where they have gone to list while waiting for big exchanges to accept them. The just-passed SAFE Actwon’t open capital marketsto the industry.</p><p><blockquote>该法案以321票对101票的两党投票结果获得通过，并定于4月20日的前一天，即一年一度的4月20日大麻改革庆祝活动。在周二股市下跌 0.7% 的情况下，美国大麻运营商的股价在场外交易和加拿大证券交易所下跌，他们在加拿大证券交易所上市，等待大型交易所接受他们的上市。刚刚通过的《外管局法案》不会向该行业开放资本市场。</blockquote></p><p> The stock of the largest U.S. chain, Curaleaf Holdings (ticker: CURLF), fell 2.8%, at $12.72. Green Thumb Industries (GITBF) hovered around $27, down 1.4%.Trulieve Cannabis(TCNNF) slipped 2.1%, at $36.72, while Cresco Labs (CRLBF) traded for $11.82, slipping 1.3%. Pot producers that confine their sales to Canada, such asCanopy Growth(CGC),Tilray(TLRY), and&nbsp;Aphria(APHA), all sold off by 5% or more, as the penalty box door loosened for their U.S. rivals.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的连锁店 Curaleaf Holdings（股票代码：CURLF）的股价下跌 2.8%，至 12.72 美元。Green Thumb Industries (GITBF) 徘徊在 27 美元左右，下跌 1.4%。 Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) 下跌 2.1%，至 36.72 美元，而 Cresco Labs (CRLBF) 的交易价格为 11.82 美元，下跌 1.3%。asCanopy Growth (CGC)、Tilray (TLRY) 和 Aphria (APHA) 等将销售限制在加拿大的大麻生产商，随着美国竞争对手的处罚范围放宽，其销量均下降了 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> To emerge from banking’s sin bin, the U.S. operators need the Senate’s approval.Cannabis banking bills&nbsp;passed the House in three previous legislative cycles, only to stall in the Republican-controlled Senate. Now the Senate is run by Democrats like Chuck Schumer, who favors even&nbsp;more comprehensive marijuana reform, so the modest banking measure may make it to President Joe Biden’s desk.</p><p><blockquote>要想摆脱银行业的罪恶，美国运营商需要获得参议院的批准。大麻银行法案在之前的三个立法周期中都在众议院获得通过，但在共和党控制的参议院却停滞不前。现在，参议院由查克-舒默（Chuck Schumer）等民主党人掌控，他赞成进行更全面的大麻改革，因此这项温和的银行业措施可能会提交给乔-拜登总统。</blockquote></p><p> The president has more urgent priorities than weed legalization, but the SAFE Act is seen as a public safety measure that will free cannabis businesses from handling dangerous stacks of cash. It’s hard to argue against that.</p><p><blockquote>总统有比大麻合法化更紧迫的优先事项，但《安全法案》被视为一项公共安全措施，将使大麻企业摆脱处理危险的现金。这一点很难反驳。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>House Passes a Cannabis Banking Bill. Will the Senate Follow Suit?<blockquote>众议院通过大麻银行法案。参议院会效仿吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHouse Passes a Cannabis Banking Bill. Will the Senate Follow Suit?<blockquote>众议院通过大麻银行法案。参议院会效仿吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-21 15:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A bill to allow interstate banks to serve state-licensed cannabis operators was passed by a wide margin Monday by the U.S. House of Representatives.The SAFE Banking Actrepresents the first move by a Democratic-controlled Congress to ease up on a fast-growing industry whose product is still illegal under federal law. Similar bills have passed the House before, but approval by the Senate and the White House look more likely this year.</p><p><blockquote>美国众议院周一以较大优势通过了一项允许州际银行为州许可的大麻运营商提供服务的法案。《安全银行法案》代表了民主党控制的国会为放松对一个快速增长的行业的监管而采取的第一步，该行业的产品根据联邦法律仍然是非法的。类似的法案以前已经在众议院通过，但今年参议院和白宫的批准看起来更有可能。</blockquote></p><p> The bill passed in a strongly bipartisan vote of 321-101, and was timed for the day ahead of April 20,the annual 4/20 celebrationof cannabis reform. Against a 0.7% dip in Tuesday’s stock market, shares of U.S. cannabis operators fell in over-the-counter trading and on the Canadian Securities Exchange, where they have gone to list while waiting for big exchanges to accept them. The just-passed SAFE Actwon’t open capital marketsto the industry.</p><p><blockquote>该法案以321票对101票的两党投票结果获得通过，并定于4月20日的前一天，即一年一度的4月20日大麻改革庆祝活动。在周二股市下跌 0.7% 的情况下，美国大麻运营商的股价在场外交易和加拿大证券交易所下跌，他们在加拿大证券交易所上市，等待大型交易所接受他们的上市。刚刚通过的《外管局法案》不会向该行业开放资本市场。</blockquote></p><p> The stock of the largest U.S. chain, Curaleaf Holdings (ticker: CURLF), fell 2.8%, at $12.72. Green Thumb Industries (GITBF) hovered around $27, down 1.4%.Trulieve Cannabis(TCNNF) slipped 2.1%, at $36.72, while Cresco Labs (CRLBF) traded for $11.82, slipping 1.3%. Pot producers that confine their sales to Canada, such asCanopy Growth(CGC),Tilray(TLRY), and&nbsp;Aphria(APHA), all sold off by 5% or more, as the penalty box door loosened for their U.S. rivals.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的连锁店 Curaleaf Holdings（股票代码：CURLF）的股价下跌 2.8%，至 12.72 美元。Green Thumb Industries (GITBF) 徘徊在 27 美元左右，下跌 1.4%。 Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) 下跌 2.1%，至 36.72 美元，而 Cresco Labs (CRLBF) 的交易价格为 11.82 美元，下跌 1.3%。asCanopy Growth (CGC)、Tilray (TLRY) 和 Aphria (APHA) 等将销售限制在加拿大的大麻生产商，随着美国竞争对手的处罚范围放宽，其销量均下降了 5% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p> To emerge from banking’s sin bin, the U.S. operators need the Senate’s approval.Cannabis banking bills&nbsp;passed the House in three previous legislative cycles, only to stall in the Republican-controlled Senate. Now the Senate is run by Democrats like Chuck Schumer, who favors even&nbsp;more comprehensive marijuana reform, so the modest banking measure may make it to President Joe Biden’s desk.</p><p><blockquote>要想摆脱银行业的罪恶，美国运营商需要获得参议院的批准。大麻银行法案在之前的三个立法周期中都在众议院获得通过，但在共和党控制的参议院却停滞不前。现在，参议院由查克-舒默（Chuck Schumer）等民主党人掌控，他赞成进行更全面的大麻改革，因此这项温和的银行业措施可能会提交给乔-拜登总统。</blockquote></p><p> The president has more urgent priorities than weed legalization, but the SAFE Act is seen as a public safety measure that will free cannabis businesses from handling dangerous stacks of cash. It’s hard to argue against that.</p><p><blockquote>总统有比大麻合法化更紧迫的优先事项，但《安全法案》被视为一项公共安全措施，将使大麻企业摆脱处理危险的现金。这一点很难反驳。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/house-passes-a-cannabis-banking-bill-will-the-senate-follow-suit-51618936166?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","MJ":"Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF","CRON":"Cronos Group Inc.","ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","APHA":"Aphria Inc.","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/house-passes-a-cannabis-banking-bill-will-the-senate-follow-suit-51618936166?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184581987","content_text":"A bill to allow interstate banks to serve state-licensed cannabis operators was passed by a wide margin Monday by the U.S. House of Representatives.The SAFE Banking Actrepresents the first move by a Democratic-controlled Congress to ease up on a fast-growing industry whose product is still illegal under federal law. Similar bills have passed the House before, but approval by the Senate and the White House look more likely this year.\nThe bill passed in a strongly bipartisan vote of 321-101, and was timed for the day ahead of April 20,the annual 4/20 celebrationof cannabis reform. Against a 0.7% dip in Tuesday’s stock market, shares of U.S. cannabis operators fell in over-the-counter trading and on the Canadian Securities Exchange, where they have gone to list while waiting for big exchanges to accept them. The just-passed SAFE Actwon’t open capital marketsto the industry.\nThe stock of the largest U.S. chain, Curaleaf Holdings (ticker: CURLF), fell 2.8%, at $12.72. Green Thumb Industries (GITBF) hovered around $27, down 1.4%.Trulieve Cannabis(TCNNF) slipped 2.1%, at $36.72, while Cresco Labs (CRLBF) traded for $11.82, slipping 1.3%. Pot producers that confine their sales to Canada, such asCanopy Growth(CGC),Tilray(TLRY), and Aphria(APHA), all sold off by 5% or more, as the penalty box door loosened for their U.S. rivals.\nTo emerge from banking’s sin bin, the U.S. operators need the Senate’s approval.Cannabis banking bills passed the House in three previous legislative cycles, only to stall in the Republican-controlled Senate. Now the Senate is run by Democrats like Chuck Schumer, who favors even more comprehensive marijuana reform, so the modest banking measure may make it to President Joe Biden’s desk.\nThe president has more urgent priorities than weed legalization, but the SAFE Act is seen as a public safety measure that will free cannabis businesses from handling dangerous stacks of cash. It’s hard to argue against that.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDL":0.9,"MJ":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"CGC":0.9,"ACB":0.9,"CRON":0.9,"APHA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354978891,"gmtCreate":1617124368113,"gmtModify":1634522516431,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully it will rises soon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Hopefully it will rises soon","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Hopefully it will rises soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3160948cba2a3fc1f66ee7b36015bc5","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354978891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":370772373,"gmtCreate":1618632624892,"gmtModify":1634291637597,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Hopefully it rises&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Hopefully it rises&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Hopefully it rises","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aad7ddcfae75a9bbd3336c0db6f7e1","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370772373","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101169909,"gmtCreate":1619862551401,"gmtModify":1631889318280,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>Still waiting for miracles&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADVM\">$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$</a>Still waiting for miracles&nbsp;","text":"$Adverum Biotechnologies(ADVM)$Still waiting for miracles","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8bc57889873d1b8e9a5549a90ad8662","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101169909","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372976900,"gmtCreate":1619172888600,"gmtModify":1634288009294,"author":{"id":"3579095603725368","authorId":"3579095603725368","name":"ElaineFaye","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bc5404f3536aaf1bcf4b1d5a5f81b3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579095603725368","idStr":"3579095603725368"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372976900","repostId":"1143062408","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}