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2021-11-19

$Razer(01337)$Hodl for $4

2021-11-05

$Histogenics(OCGN)$it will rise again

2021-11-02

$Histogenics(OCGN)$nice

2021-07-29

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-19

Lol

AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>

2021-04-24

No lol

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2021-04-18

Kthxbye

Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>

2021-04-10

Kthxbye

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-06

Kthxbye

Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>

2021-04-06

Okthxbye

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11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372537189,"gmtCreate":1619226725341,"gmtModify":1634287647514,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No lol","listText":"No lol","text":"No lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372537189","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379658139,"gmtCreate":1618732957821,"gmtModify":1634291191181,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379658139","repostId":"1156256429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156256429","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618495767,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156256429?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156256429","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中国电动汽车股大幅下跌。小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com 公布了分析师博客中的股票列表。Zacks Equity Research 分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。最近在博客中介绍的股票包括：比亚迪有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的要点：<i>中国汽车销售走上快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）的数据，3月份中国汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。与 2020 年同期相比，销量飙升了 75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到了冠状病毒的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数字</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。这一大幅增长是由于 COVID-19 影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在 2020 年 1 月至 3 月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，由于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国现在处于全球汽车市场复苏的前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车的交付量增长了77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长 68%，达到 651,000 辆。电动汽车销量同比增长 240%，达到 226,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长 75%，达到 508 万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于气候变化问题和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到 2025 年电动汽车 (EV) 将占新车销量的 25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，中国--全球最大的电动汽车市场--零排放汽车销售强劲。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份售出24,218辆电动汽车，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前 Zacks 排名第三（持有），上个月交付了 7,257 辆电动汽车，同比飙升 373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>点击此处查看今日 Zacks 排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>通用汽车</b>和<b>福特</b>还录得强劲的销售，并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了 35,478 辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量同比分别增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在加快在中国开发先进技术，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由 Ultium Drive 提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克 LYRIQ SUV 将是本月晚些时候在 2021 年上海车展上在中国推出的首款搭载 Ultium 动力的汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车公司五菱品牌旗下的宏光迷你电动汽车在 2021 年第一季度的销量超过了 7.2 万辆，继续保持着全国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马 Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求飙升，中国电动汽车市场的竞争正在白热化。即使补贴将于 2022 年结束，随着新的新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战仍日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来 10 年内投资 100 亿美元开发电动汽车。该公司打算成立一家全资子公司，初始投资约为15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>打车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也宣布计划在一月份推出电动汽车业务。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺将玩剧透运动</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量已经强劲反弹，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？嗯，CAAM已经警告说，芯片短缺将在2021年第二季度对该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>尽管中国是最大的汽车市场，但它严重依赖芯片进口，并且是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商正在争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从 3 月 29 日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车上个月也停产。在无法快速解决这一芯片问题的情况下，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司也挺身而出，以维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得丰厚的利润。例如，Zoom 在不到 4 个月的时间里上涨了 108.5%，而大多数其他股票都在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于 “宅在家里 ”技术需求的指数级增长，5 只尖端股票可能会暴涨。这可能是这十年来最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些提前入场的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-15 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中国电动汽车股大幅下跌。小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com 公布了分析师博客中的股票列表。Zacks Equity Research 分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。最近在博客中介绍的股票包括：比亚迪有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的要点：<i>中国汽车销售走上快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）的数据，3月份中国汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。与 2020 年同期相比，销量飙升了 75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到了冠状病毒的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数字</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。这一大幅增长是由于 COVID-19 影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在 2020 年 1 月至 3 月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，由于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国现在处于全球汽车市场复苏的前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车的交付量增长了77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长 68%，达到 651,000 辆。电动汽车销量同比增长 240%，达到 226,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长 75%，达到 508 万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于气候变化问题和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到 2025 年电动汽车 (EV) 将占新车销量的 25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，中国--全球最大的电动汽车市场--零排放汽车销售强劲。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份售出24,218辆电动汽车，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前 Zacks 排名第三（持有），上个月交付了 7,257 辆电动汽车，同比飙升 373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>点击此处查看今日 Zacks 排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>通用汽车</b>和<b>福特</b>还录得强劲的销售，并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了 35,478 辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量同比分别增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在加快在中国开发先进技术，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由 Ultium Drive 提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克 LYRIQ SUV 将是本月晚些时候在 2021 年上海车展上在中国推出的首款搭载 Ultium 动力的汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车公司五菱品牌旗下的宏光迷你电动汽车在 2021 年第一季度的销量超过了 7.2 万辆，继续保持着全国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马 Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求飙升，中国电动汽车市场的竞争正在白热化。即使补贴将于 2022 年结束，随着新的新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战仍日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来 10 年内投资 100 亿美元开发电动汽车。该公司打算成立一家全资子公司，初始投资约为15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>打车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也宣布计划在一月份推出电动汽车业务。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺将玩剧透运动</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量已经强劲反弹，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？嗯，CAAM已经警告说，芯片短缺将在2021年第二季度对该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>尽管中国是最大的汽车市场，但它严重依赖芯片进口，并且是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商正在争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从 3 月 29 日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车上个月也停产。在无法快速解决这一芯片问题的情况下，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司也挺身而出，以维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得丰厚的利润。例如，Zoom 在不到 4 个月的时间里上涨了 108.5%，而大多数其他股票都在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于 “宅在家里 ”技术需求的指数级增长，5 只尖端股票可能会暴涨。这可能是这十年来最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些提前入场的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156256429","content_text":"(April 15) Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.Digging Into Sales NumbersFor the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs UpDemand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.China-based EV makers includingBYD Co,NIO,Li AutoandXPengregistered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Foreign carmakers includingTesla,GMandFordare also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.Chip Deficit to Play SpoilsportWhile China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":346803715,"gmtCreate":1618018407837,"gmtModify":1634295221161,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346803715","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343251987,"gmtCreate":1617720230049,"gmtModify":1634296914006,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343251987","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343253119,"gmtCreate":1617720186131,"gmtModify":1634296914686,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579411687909792","authorIdStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okthxbye","listText":"Okthxbye","text":"Okthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343253119","repostId":"1116564866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":876630856,"gmtCreate":1637300609922,"gmtModify":1637300609922,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01337\">$Razer(01337)$</a>Hodl for $4","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01337\">$Razer(01337)$</a>Hodl for $4","text":"$Razer(01337)$Hodl for $4","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876630856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843778696,"gmtCreate":1635861146666,"gmtModify":1635861146666,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>nice","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843778696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846211279,"gmtCreate":1636085275328,"gmtModify":1636085275462,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>it will rise again","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>it will rise again","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$it will rise again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0669314e7136d19d89f8438d3a4a92ff","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846211279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346803715,"gmtCreate":1618018407837,"gmtModify":1634295221161,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346803715","repostId":"1142324412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343253119,"gmtCreate":1617720186131,"gmtModify":1634296914686,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okthxbye","listText":"Okthxbye","text":"Okthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343253119","repostId":"1116564866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808036570,"gmtCreate":1627542166090,"gmtModify":1633763964046,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808036570","repostId":"1195996252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162767590,"gmtCreate":1624076356710,"gmtModify":1634010985229,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162767590","repostId":"1131310015","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131310015","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623987347,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131310015?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131310015","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pul","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: Danger Signals For Investors And Speculators<blockquote>AMC：投资者和投机者的危险信号</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.</li>  <li>For investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.</li>  <li>A century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.</li>  <li>Sell before the other speculators do.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabb985556b9f549dd561bf919495d08\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>RgStudio/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我站在巨人的肩膀上指导你在AMC。</li><li>对于投资者来说，没有盈利前景的引力对该股几乎没有支撑。</li><li>对于指望空头挤压的投机者来说，这是一个百年历史的警示故事。</li><li>在其他投机者之前卖出。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>RgStudio/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> What are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “<i>If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.</i>” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer for<i>The Wall Street Journal</i>, and John Brooks, author of “<i>Business Adventures</i>”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.</p><p><blockquote>我们该如何看待模因股票现象？几周前，我曾尝试过AMC院线控股公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）。读完两篇有趣的文章后，我又回来了。正如艾萨克·牛顿在1676年所说，“<i>如果我看得更远一点，那就是站在巨人的肩膀上。</i>“现在我不是艾萨克·牛顿了。首先，我看起来好多了。但就像齐克--艾萨克的朋友们可能从未用过这个绰号--我也站在巨人的肩膀上。在这种情况下，杰森·茨威格的肩膀是一位出色的金融市场作家<i>华尔街日报</i>约翰·布鲁克斯，《<i>商业冒险</i>”，比尔·盖茨推荐的一本书。我将在本文中大量引用这两者，然后为您划清界限。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor vs. trader vs. speculator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者与交易者与投机者</b></blockquote></p><p> Jason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021<i>Wall Street Journal</i>column:</p><p><blockquote>杰森·茨威格 (Jason Zweig) 在他的 2021 年 6 月 11 日以图形方式区分了这三种类型的股票买家<i>华尔街日报</i>列：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”</i>  So why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assets<i>never</i>came up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>无论何时你购买任何金融资产，因为你有预感，或者只是为了刺激，或者因为某个名人大肆宣传，或者其他人似乎也在购买，你都不是在投资。你绝对是交易者：刚刚购买资产的人。你可能是一个投机者：一个认为别人会比你付出更多的人。“投资者依赖于内部回报来源：收益、收入、资产价值增长。投机者依赖于外部回报来源：主要是别人是否会付出更多，而不管基本价值如何。”</i>那么，为什么 AMC 的股价一直在飙升呢？我有一个非正式的数据源，即我6月4日AMC文章上的300多条评论。收益、收入、资产价值增长<i>没有</i>上来了。随之而来的是 “挤空 ”和股票图表。因此，我预计茨威格先生会将 AMC 的股票描述为由交易员和投机者推动的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.</p><p><blockquote>茨威格先生还让我意识到，我的AMC文章遗漏了盈利预测。我给出了很多关于历史趋势的数据，这只是暗示了未来的方向。我在这里纠正这个遗漏。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A 2022 AMC earnings forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年 AMC 盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> I start with the key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>我从关键假设开始：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5311cb0ff00c046d122c2c84fc3aea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>My time frame for reference</i>&nbsp;is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.</p><p><blockquote><i>我的时间框架供参考</i>是2017年至2019年。早期数据的相关性较小，因为 AMC 在 2016 年进行了一次重大收购，而 2020 年和 2021 年的数据的相关性更差，因为 COVID。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The national box office</i>is the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.</p><p><blockquote><i>全国票房</i>是主要的假设。我6月4日的文章显示，自2002年以来，电影上座率一直在下降。明年票房会是多少？无论是订户还是内容，流媒体的稳步增长无疑是一个阻力。从逻辑上讲，COVID应该增加从场外（剧院）娱乐到家庭娱乐的转变，就像购物和工作一样。让电影上座率接近 19 年的水平将是一个小奇迹。下降10%甚至20%的可能性要大得多。正如您在上表中看到的，我使用所有三个票房假设来预测 2022 年 AMC 每股收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>AMC market share.</i></b>I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>AMC市场份额。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的份额会比 17-19 年的水平有所增加，因为一些竞争影院肯定是因为 COVID 的财务压力而退出的。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Admissions gross margin.</i></b>This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>入学毛利率。</i></b>这是门票销售的利润减去制片人授权电影的成本。我认为 AMC 在 17-19 年保持稳定，但我也可以想象，电影制片人会寻求更好的条款，因为 AMC 必须与越来越多急需内容的流媒体服务商竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food expenses as a percent of sales.</i></b>I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs and<i>multiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.</i>Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品支出占销售额的百分比。</i></b>我转发令人震惊的低数字。AMC 及其同行可能会承担食品和饮料成本<i>对我们电影观众的定价乘以7。</i>走私自己的Jujifruits，节省一捆。我今年最好的理财建议。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Food and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.</i></b>I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>食品和饮料销售额占票价的百分比。</i></b>我认为 AMC 的小幅增长趋势将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Operating expenses</i></b>are the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>营运开支</i></b>是剧院人员、水电费等费用。我认为运营费用率的逐渐上升趋势将继续，原因有二。其一，这些运营费用在很大程度上是固定的，收入将面临压力。其次，当前的劳动力短缺将给低端剧院工作的工资水平带来压力，这似乎是合乎逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:</p><p><blockquote>我们现在准备好了我的收益和现金流模型：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b8a5ce8ad10adb3336126cdb0a5e598\" tg-width=\"537\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:</p><p><blockquote>22 年的预测是通过 “毛利润 ”行根据上述假设确定的。我的管理费用预测假设 AMC 正在努力在充满挑战的时期限制费用：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Depreciation/amortization</i>is a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.</li>  <li><i>Interest expense</i>should decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.</li> </ul> <b>The gravitational pull of earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>折旧╱摊销</i>是房地产和收购的会计费用的组合。疫情期间进行的减记应该会减少这些费用。</li><li><i>利息支出</i>随着 AMC 用其筹集的股本偿还部分债务，应该会下降。</li></ul><b>盈利的引力</b></blockquote></p><p> We arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.</p><p><blockquote>我们到达了底线。我能看到的 2022 年每股收益的最佳情况大致是盈亏平衡。更有可能的是小幅亏损。现金流应该会更糟，因为 AMC 为保持其影院对不断萎缩的观众的吸引力而需要的现金资本支出应该会超过其非现金折旧/摊销费用。如果资本支出远低于我的预测，那可能是因为 AMC 管理层承认自己正处于死亡螺旋之中，并希望尽可能多地榨取现金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>The bottom line - no support for investors.</i>AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words of<i>Trading Places</i>, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”</p><p><blockquote><i>底线——不支持投资者。</i>AMC 的账面价值为负。在COVID之后，它似乎无法赚到任何实质性的钱。由于技术变革，其业务长期下滑，其新的竞争对手是拥有巨大资源的怪物公司——网飞、迪士尼、康卡斯特等。投资者只能看着 AMC 目前 55 美元的股价，不寒而栗地说，用不朽的名言来说，<i>交易场所</i>“卖掉莫蒂默，卖掉!”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投机游戏——空头挤压：一个历史警示故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Millennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The book<i>Business Adventures</i>by John Brooks<i>,</i>published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代并没有发明轧空。它几乎和金融市场存在的时间一样长。书<i>商业冒险</i>约翰·布鲁克斯<i>,</i>早在1969年就出版了，讲述了一个20世纪20年代初的短暂挤压的生动故事。就在一个世纪前。我将引用书中的一段话，说明在没有投资者支持的情况下，故事的结局是如何进行猜测的。所以，给自己倒点非法的胡言乱语吧（我们正走向禁酒令时代），然后继续读下去。这是第一家超市Piggly Wiggly Stores的创始人克拉伦斯·桑德斯的故事；他那个时代的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> Shorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:</p><p><blockquote>1922 年，空头追逐克拉伦斯的股票，将其从 50 美元跌至 40 美元以下。桑德斯发誓要用一个短挤压来复仇。以下是布鲁克斯先生讲述故事的节选：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…</i>”  The sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>桑德斯……购买了 33,000 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票，主要来自卖空者；不到一周，他就把股票总数增加到了10.5万股——超过了20万股流通股的一半。桑德斯收购活动的有效性显而易见；到 1923 年 1 月下旬，他的价格已经上涨了 60 多美元……</i>“昔日唯一的空头挤压者如今已被成群的 “猿猴 ”所取代，而猿猴在推高价格方面表现得更好。顺便说一句，信不信由你，一群类人猿显然被称为“精明”。一群猿类很精明——很有趣。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”</i>  Today we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.</p><p><blockquote>“<i>他发了财，证明了一个可怜的南方男孩是如何教训城里的骗子的。”</i>今天，我们有猿猴把它粘在对冲基金上。</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.</i>”  Something to think about. What was Saunders to do?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>角落里最大的危险之一总是，即使一个玩家可能击败了他的对手，他也会发现自己赢得了一场得不偿失的胜利。一旦卖空者被榨干，角落可能会发现他在这个过程中积累的大量股票是他脖子上的沉重负担；通过将其全部推回市场，他将把其价格降至零。</i>“值得思考的事情。桑德斯该怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   “[  <i>Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments</i>.”  Pretty clever, no? No:</p><p><blockquote>“[<i>桑德斯的解决方案是出售分期付款计划中价值 55 美元的股票。他在2月份的广告中规定，公众只需支付25美元的首付，余款分三期支付，每期10美元</i>很聪明，不是吗？编号：</blockquote></p><p>   “  <i>At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”</i>  Uh oh. What now?</p><p><blockquote>“<i>第三天结束时，认购股份总数仍低于25,000股，已进行的销售被取消。桑德斯不得不承认这次驾驶失败了。”</i>呃哦。现在怎么办？</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”</i>  Ouch.</p><p><blockquote><i>“8 月 22 日，Adrian H. Muller &amp; Son 的纽约拍卖公司.以每股 1 美元的价格拍卖了 1500 股 Piggly Wiggly 股票.次年春天，桑德斯进入了正式的破产程序”。</i>哎哟。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buyers beware</b></p><p><blockquote><b>买家要小心</b></blockquote></p><p> As Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?</p><p><blockquote>正如杰森·茨威格上面指出的，投机者依赖于以更高的价格找到买家。如今的 AMC 股票持有者无疑让许多卖空者日子不好过。但是，在 AMC 目前 280 亿美元的市值之上，真的有足够多的新买家来收购现有股东吗？尤其是在没有盈利持续拖累股票的情况下？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 的股东们，不要为克拉伦斯-桑德斯的惨痛胜利而欢呼。拿着每股 55 美元就跑吧。快的。在其他投机者先这样做之前。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435360-amc-stock-danger-signals-for-investors-and-speculators","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131310015","content_text":"Summary\n\nI stand on the shoulder of giants to guide you on AMC.\nFor investors, the gravitational pull of no earning prospects provides little support to the stock.\nA century-old cautionary tale for speculators counting on a short squeeze.\nSell before the other speculators do.\n\nRgStudio/E+ via Getty Images\nWhat are we to make of the meme stock phenomena? I tookone stab at itwith AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.(NYSE:AMC)a few weeks ago. I’m back for more, after reading two interesting pieces. As Isaac Newton said in 1676, “If I have seen a little further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” Now I’m no Isaac Newton. For one, I’m far better looking. But like Zeke – a nickname Isaac’s friends probably never used – I too stand on the shoulders of giants. In this case the shoulders of Jason Zweig, a wonderful financial markets writer forThe Wall Street Journal, and John Brooks, author of “Business Adventures”, a book recommended by Bill Gates. I will quote liberally from both in this article, then draw the line for you to AMC.\nInvestor vs. trader vs. speculator\nJason Zweig graphically distinguished between these three types of stock buyers in hisJune 11, 2021Wall Street Journalcolumn:\n\n “\n Whenever you buy any financial asset because you have a hunch or just for kicks, or because somebody famous is hyping the heck out of it, or everybody else seems to be buying it too, you aren’t investing.You’re definitely a trader: someone who has just bought an asset. And you may be a speculator: someone who thinks other people will pay more for it than you did.”“An investor relies on internal sources of return: earnings, income, growth in the value of assets. A speculator counts on external sources of return: primarily whether somebody else will pay more, regardless of fundamental value.”\n\nSo why has AMC’s stock price been on a tear? I have one informal data source, namely the 300+ comments on my June 4 AMC article. Earnings, income, growth in the value of assetsnevercame up. What did come up was “short squeeze” and stock charts. So I expect Mr. Zweig would describe AMC’s stock as driven by traders and speculators.\nMr. Zweig also made me realize that my AMC article left out an earnings forecast. I gave lots of data on historic trends, which only implied a future direction. I correct that omission here.\nA 2022 AMC earnings forecast\nI start with the key assumptions:\n\nMy time frame for reference is 2017 to 2019. Earlier data is less relevant because AMC made a big acquisition in 2016, and 2020 and 2021 data is even less relevant because of COVID.\nThe national box officeis the major assumption.My June 4 articleshows that movie attendance has been declining since 2002. What will box office be next year? The steady growth in streaming, both in subscribers and content, certainly is a headwind. And COVID logically should increase the shift from offsite (theater) entertainment to home entertainment, as it has for shopping and working. Holding movie attendance near its ’19 level would be a minor miracle. A 10%, or even a 20%, decline is far more likely. As you can see in the table above, I make 2022 AMC EPS forecasts using all three box office assumptions.\nAMC market share.I assume a share increase from AMC’s ’17-’19 level because some competing theaters must have dropped out because of COVID financial pressures.\nAdmissions gross margin.This is the profit from ticket sales less the cost of licensing movies from their producers. I hold AMC steady with ’17-’19, but I can also imagine that movie producers seek better terms because AMC has to bid against a growing pool of streaming services desperate for content.\nFood expenses as a percent of sales.I carry forward the shockingly low number. AMC, and presumably its peers, take their food and beverage costs andmultiply them by 7 in their pricing to us moviegoers.Smuggle in your own Jujifruits and save a bundle. My best financial advice for the year.\nFood and beverage sales as a percent of ticket prices.I assume that AMC’s trend of modest increases continues.\nOperating expensesare the cost of the theater personnel, utilities, etc. I assume the gradual uptrend in the operating expense ratio continues, for two reasons. One, these operating expenses are largely fixed, and revenues will be under pressure. Second, it seems logical that the current labor shortage will pressure pay levels for low-end theater jobs.\nWe’re now ready for my earnings and cash flow models:\n\nThe ’22 forecasts are set by the assumptions above through the “gross profit” line. My overhead expense forecast assumes that AMC is working hard to limit expenses through its challenging times:\n\nDepreciation/amortizationis a combination of accounting expenses for real estate and acquisitions. Write-downs taken during the pandemic should have reduced these expenses.\nInterest expenseshould decline as AMC pays down some debt with the equity it has been raising.\n\nThe gravitational pull of earnings\nWe arrive at the bottom line. The best-case scenario I can see for 2022 EPS is roughly breakeven. More likely is a modest loss. Cash flow should be somewhat worse, because the cash capital spending needed by AMC to keep its theaters attractive to a shrinking audience should exceed its non-cash depreciation/amortization expenses. If capital spending is much lower than I forecast, it is probably because AMC management is conceding that it is in a death spiral and wants to milk what cash it can.\nThe bottom line - no support for investors.AMC’s book value is negative. It appears incapable of earning any material money post-COVID. Its business is in long-term decline due to technology changes, and its new competitors are monster companies – Netflix, Disney, Comcast, etc. – with huge resources. An investor can only look at AMC’s current $55 stock price and with a shudder say, in the immortal words ofTrading Places, “Sell Mortimer, sell!”\nThe speculative play - a short squeeze: A historical cautionary tale\nMillennials did not invent the short squeeze. It has been around almost as long financial markets have existed. The bookBusiness Adventuresby John Brooks,published way back in 1969, tells a vivid tale of a short squeeze even farther back, in the early 1920s. Literally a century ago. I’m going to quote from the book to suggest how the story ends for speculations with no investor support. So pour yourself some illegal hooch (we’re heading to the Prohibition Era) and read on. This is the story of Clarence Saunders, the founder of Piggly Wiggly Stores, the first supermarket; the Amazon of his day.\nShorts went after Clarence’s stock in 1922, driving it from $50 to below $40. Saunders vowed revenge with a short squeeze. Here are excerpts of Mr. Brooks’ recounting of the story:\n\n “\n Saunders…bought 33,000 shares of Piggly Wiggly, mostly from short sellers; within a week he had brought the total to 105,000 – more than half of the 200,000 shares outstanding. The effectiveness of Saunders’ buying campaign was readily apparent; by late January of 1923 it had driven he price up over $60…”\n\nThe sole short squeezer of yore has been replaced by herds of “apes” today, and the apes have been far better in driving up prices. By the way, believe it or not, a group of apes is apparently called a “shrewdness”. A group of apes is shrewd – interesting.\n\n “\n He had made himself a bundle and had demonstrated how a poor Southern boy could teach the city slickers a lesson.”\n\nToday we have apes sticking it to hedge funds.\n\n “\n One of the great hazards in the Corner was always that even though a player might defeat his opponents, he would discover that he had won a Pyrrhic victory. Once the short sellers had been squeezed dry, the cornerer might find that the reams of stock he had accumulated in the process were a dead weight around his neck; by pushing it all back into the market, he would drive its price down to zero.”\n\nSomething to think about. What was Saunders to do?\n\n “[\n Saunders’] solution was to sell his $55 shares on the installment plan. In his February advertisements, he stipulated that the public could buy shares only by paying $25 down and the balance in three $10 installments.”\n\nPretty clever, no? No:\n\n “\n At the end of the third day, the total number of shares subscribed for was still under 25,000, and the sales that were made were canceled. Saunders had to admit that the drive had been a failure.”\n\nUh oh. What now?\n\n“On August 22nd, the New York auction firm of Adrian H. Muller & Son…knocked down 1,500 shares of Piggly Wiggly at $1 a share…The following spring Saunders went through formal bankruptcy proceedings.”\n\nOuch.\nBuyers beware\nAs Jason Zweig noted above, speculators depend upon finding a buyer at a higher price. Today’s holders of AMC stock certainly have made life painful for many short sellers. But are there really enough new buyers to take out current shareholders above AMC’s present $28 billion market cap? Especially with the gravity of no earnings constantly weighing on the stock?\nAMC shareholders, don’t win Clarence Saunders’ Pyrrhic victory. Take your $55 a share and run. Fast. Before the other speculating holders do so first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372537189,"gmtCreate":1619226725341,"gmtModify":1634287647514,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No lol","listText":"No lol","text":"No lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372537189","repostId":"1166519043","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379658139,"gmtCreate":1618732957821,"gmtModify":1634291191181,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379658139","repostId":"1156256429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156256429","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618495767,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156256429?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-15 22:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156256429","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto","content":"<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中国电动汽车股大幅下跌。小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com 公布了分析师博客中的股票列表。Zacks Equity Research 分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。最近在博客中介绍的股票包括：比亚迪有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的要点：<i>中国汽车销售走上快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）的数据，3月份中国汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。与 2020 年同期相比，销量飙升了 75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到了冠状病毒的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数字</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。这一大幅增长是由于 COVID-19 影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在 2020 年 1 月至 3 月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，由于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国现在处于全球汽车市场复苏的前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车的交付量增长了77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长 68%，达到 651,000 辆。电动汽车销量同比增长 240%，达到 226,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长 75%，达到 508 万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于气候变化问题和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到 2025 年电动汽车 (EV) 将占新车销量的 25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，中国--全球最大的电动汽车市场--零排放汽车销售强劲。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份售出24,218辆电动汽车，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前 Zacks 排名第三（持有），上个月交付了 7,257 辆电动汽车，同比飙升 373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>点击此处查看今日 Zacks 排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>通用汽车</b>和<b>福特</b>还录得强劲的销售，并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了 35,478 辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量同比分别增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在加快在中国开发先进技术，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由 Ultium Drive 提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克 LYRIQ SUV 将是本月晚些时候在 2021 年上海车展上在中国推出的首款搭载 Ultium 动力的汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车公司五菱品牌旗下的宏光迷你电动汽车在 2021 年第一季度的销量超过了 7.2 万辆，继续保持着全国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马 Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求飙升，中国电动汽车市场的竞争正在白热化。即使补贴将于 2022 年结束，随着新的新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战仍日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来 10 年内投资 100 亿美元开发电动汽车。该公司打算成立一家全资子公司，初始投资约为15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>打车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也宣布计划在一月份推出电动汽车业务。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺将玩剧透运动</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量已经强劲反弹，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？嗯，CAAM已经警告说，芯片短缺将在2021年第二季度对该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>尽管中国是最大的汽车市场，但它严重依赖芯片进口，并且是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商正在争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从 3 月 29 日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车上个月也停产。在无法快速解决这一芯片问题的情况下，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司也挺身而出，以维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得丰厚的利润。例如，Zoom 在不到 4 个月的时间里上涨了 108.5%，而大多数其他股票都在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于 “宅在家里 ”技术需求的指数级增长，5 只尖端股票可能会暴涨。这可能是这十年来最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些提前入场的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese electric vehicle stocks  fell sharply<blockquote>中国电动汽车股大幅下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-15 22:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 15)&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;electric vehicle stocks fell sharply.&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;6%,&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;5%,&nbsp;Li&nbsp;fell&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;7%.</p><p><blockquote>（4月15日）中国电动汽车股大幅下跌。小鹏汽车跌约6%，蔚来跌约5%，理想跌超7%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbaf16ea0d1c0365c2cd923a7641e5c1\" tg-width=\"313\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Days&nbsp;ago,&nbsp;Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，Zacks.com 公布了分析师博客中的股票列表。Zacks Equity Research 分析师每天都会讨论影响股票和金融市场的最新新闻和事件。最近在博客中介绍的股票包括：比亚迪有限公司BYDDY、蔚来蔚来、理想汽车LI和小鹏汽车XPEV。</blockquote></p><p>Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:<i>Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?</i></p><p><blockquote>以下是周一分析师博客的要点：<i>中国汽车销售走上快车道——会遇到减速带吗？</i></blockquote></p><p>Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.</p><p><blockquote>根据中国汽车工业协会（“中国汽车工业协会”）的数据，3月份中国汽车销量连续第12个月飙升至253万辆。与 2020 年同期相比，销量飙升了 75%，当时该国的汽车需求受到了冠状病毒的严重打击。</blockquote></p><p>Digging Into Sales Numbers</p><p><blockquote>挖掘销售数字</blockquote></p><p>For the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，销量同比飙升76%，达到648万辆。这一大幅增长是由于 COVID-19 影响的严重程度较低，这限制了去年同期的展厅客流量。</blockquote></p><p>In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，中国汽车制造商在 2020 年 1 月至 3 月期间遭遇了有史以来最惨淡的季度。然而，由于政府的支持性政策、经济活动的逐步重新开放以及被压抑的汽车需求，中国现在处于全球汽车市场复苏的前沿。</blockquote></p><p>Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.</p><p><blockquote>2021年3月，包括运动型多用途车、轿车和多用途车在内的新型轻型汽车的交付量增长了77%，超过187万辆。包括皮卡和公共汽车在内的商用车交付量同比增长 68%，达到 651,000 辆。电动汽车销量同比增长 240%，达到 226,000 辆。</blockquote></p><p>New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度新轻型汽车交付量较去年同期增长 75%，达到 508 万辆。商用车和电动汽车销量同比分别增长77%和280%，达到141万辆和51.5万辆。</blockquote></p><p>China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs Up</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车市场火热，竞争加剧</blockquote></p><p>Demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>由于气候变化问题和有利的政府政策，对新能源汽车（NEV）的需求一直在上升。重要的是，该国预计到 2025 年电动汽车 (EV) 将占新车销量的 25%。</blockquote></p><p>Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>去年四月，中国政府宣布计划将电动或插电式混合动力汽车等新能源汽车的补贴和税收减免再延长两年，以刺激销售。在有利的政府政策以及消费者信心和经济改善的推动下，中国--全球最大的电动汽车市场--零排放汽车销售强劲。</blockquote></p><p>China-based EV makers including<b>BYD Co</b>,<b>NIO</b>,<b>Li Auto</b>and<b>XPeng</b>registered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商包括<b>比亚迪公司</b>,<b>蔚来</b>,<b>理想汽车</b>和<b>小鹏</b>上个月电动汽车销量强劲。沃伦·巴菲特支持的比亚迪3月份售出24,218辆电动汽车，同比增长97.6%。</blockquote></p><p>NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can see<b>the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here</b>.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来目前 Zacks 排名第三（持有），上个月交付了 7,257 辆电动汽车，同比飙升 373%。电动汽车制造商理想汽车和小鹏汽车交付了4,900辆和5,102辆汽车，同比分别增长238.6%和384%。你可以看到<b>点击此处查看今日 Zacks 排名第一（强力买入）股票的完整列表</b>.</blockquote></p><p>Foreign carmakers including<b>Tesla</b>,<b>GM</b>and<b>Ford</b>are also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p><blockquote>外国汽车制造商包括<b>特斯拉</b>,<b>通用汽车</b>和<b>福特</b>还录得强劲的销售，并积极扩大在该国的业务。根据中国乘用车协会的数据，电动汽车巨头特斯拉上个月售出了 35,478 辆中国制造的汽车。得益于上海超级工厂的强劲生产，该公司在中国电动汽车市场占据了巨大的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p>Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，福特和通用汽车在中国的整体汽车销量同比分别增长73%和69%。通用汽车正在加快在中国开发先进技术，以实现全电动的未来。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在中国的下一代电动汽车（所有品牌）将由 Ultium Drive 提供动力。值得注意的是，凯迪拉克 LYRIQ SUV 将是本月晚些时候在 2021 年上海车展上在中国推出的首款搭载 Ultium 动力的汽车。</blockquote></p><p>Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，通用汽车公司五菱品牌旗下的宏光迷你电动汽车在 2021 年第一季度的销量超过了 7.2 万辆，继续保持着全国最畅销绿色汽车的地位。与此同时，福特将与其合资企业长安福特在中国生产电动野马 Mach-E。</blockquote></p><p>Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.</p><p><blockquote>随着需求飙升，中国电动汽车市场的竞争正在白热化。即使补贴将于 2022 年结束，随着新的新贵、传统汽车制造商和科技巨头进军该领域，中国的电动汽车之战仍日益激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，中国领先的智能手机制造商小米宣布，将在未来 10 年内投资 100 亿美元开发电动汽车。该公司打算成立一家全资子公司，初始投资约为15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.</p><p><blockquote>打车平台滴滴出行也推出了电动汽车部门，并与比亚迪合作开发专为其服务设计的电动汽车。电信设备巨头华为科技也计划推出其品牌的电动汽车，并可能在今年推出几款车型。搜索引擎巨头百度也宣布计划在一月份推出电动汽车业务。</blockquote></p><p>Chip Deficit to Play Spoilsport</p><p><blockquote>筹码短缺将玩剧透运动</blockquote></p><p>While China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.</p><p><blockquote>虽然中国汽车销量已经强劲反弹，但在全球芯片紧缩的情况下，复苏能否持续？嗯，CAAM已经警告说，芯片短缺将在2021年第二季度对该国的汽车生产产生不利影响。该机构预计缺口要到今年第四季度才会缓解。</blockquote></p><p>Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.</p><p><blockquote>尽管中国是最大的汽车市场，但它严重依赖芯片进口，并且是半导体的最大买家。在芯片短缺的情况下，汽车制造商正在争先恐后地采购半导体，这迫使他们减产并闲置工厂。由于微芯片短缺，蔚来从 3 月 29 日开始关闭运营五天。吉利控股旗下的沃尔沃汽车上个月也停产。在无法快速解决这一芯片问题的情况下，中国汽车行业的复苏可能很快就会失去动力。</blockquote></p><p>These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic</p><p><blockquote>这些股票有望在疫情过后飙升</blockquote></p><p>The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的爆发极大地改变了消费者的行为，一些高科技公司也挺身而出，以维持美国的运转。目前，这些公司的投资者有机会获得丰厚的利润。例如，Zoom 在不到 4 个月的时间里上涨了 108.5%，而大多数其他股票都在下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.</p><p><blockquote>我们的研究表明，由于 “宅在家里 ”技术需求的指数级增长，5 只尖端股票可能会暴涨。这可能是这十年来最大的买入机会之一，尤其是对于那些提前入场的人来说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156256429","content_text":"(April 15) Chinese electric vehicle stocks fell sharply. Xpeng Motors fell about 6%, NIO fell about 5%, Li fell more than 7%.Days ago, Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: BYD Company Limited BYDDY, NIO Inc. NIO, Li Auto Inc. LI and XPeng Inc. XPEV.Here are highlights from Monday’s Analyst Blog:Chinese Auto Sales on Fast Track - Will It Hit a Speed Bump?Vehicle sales in China for the month of March soared for the 12th straight month to 2.53 million units, per the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (“CAAM”). Sales spiked 75% from the corresponding period of 2020, when the country’s vehicle demand was badly hit by coronavirus woes.Digging Into Sales NumbersFor the first quarter of 2021, sales surged 76% year over year to top 6.48 million units. The massive jump was due to lower severity of COVID-19 impacts, which crimped showroom traffic in the comparable year-ago quarter.In fact, automakers in China suffered their bleakest ever quarter in the January-March 2020 period. However, thanks to supportive government policies, gradual reopening of economic activities and pent-up vehicle demand, China is now at the forefront of global auto market recovery.Deliveries of new light vehicles including sport utility vehicles, sedans and multi-purpose vehicles grew 77% to exceed 1.87 million units in March 2021. Deliveries of commercial vehicles including pickups and buses rose 68% year over year to 651,000 units. Electric vehicle sales jumped a whopping 240% year over year to 226,000 units.New light vehicle deliveries in first-quarter 2021 climbed 75% from the comparable year-ago period to 5.08 million units. Sales of commercial vehicles and EVs spiked 77% and 280% to 1.41 million units and 515,000 units, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.China EV Market on Fire, Competition Revs UpDemand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been on the rise amid climate change concerns and favorable government policies. Importantly, the country projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 25% of new car sales by 2025.Last April, the government of China announced plans to extend subsidies and tax breaks for NEVs such as electric or plug-in hybrid cars for another two years to spur sales. Buoyed by favorable government policies and improving consumer confidence and economy, China — world’s largest EV market — is seeing solid sales of zero-emission vehicles.China-based EV makers includingBYD Co,NIO,Li AutoandXPengregistered strong EV sales last month. Warren Buffett-backed BYD sold 24,218 EVs in March, representing a year-over-year jump of 97.6%.NIO — which currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) — delivered 7,257 EVs last month, skyrocketing 373% year over year. EV makers Li Auto and XPeng delivered 4,900 and 5,102 vehicles, up a whopping 238.6% and 384%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Foreign carmakers includingTesla,GMandFordare also registering strong sales and actively ramping up operations in the country. Per China Passenger Car Association, EV behemoth Tesla sold 35,478 China-made cars last month. The company commands a huge market share in the EV market of China, thanks to robust production from the Shanghai Gigafactory.Overall vehicle sales by Ford and General Motors in China witnessed a year-over-year rally of 73% and 69%, respectively, for first-quarter 2021. General Motors is speeding up the development of advanced technologies in China to enable an all-electric future.The company’s next-generation EVs (across all brands) in China will be powered by Ultium Drive. It should be noted that the Cadillac LYRIQ SUV would be the first Ultium-powered vehicle to be rolled out in China at Auto Shanghai 2021 later this month.Importantly, Sales of Hong Guang mini-EV — under General Motors’ Wuling brand — exceeded 72,000 units in first-quarter 2021, retaining its position as the best-selling green vehicle in the country. Meanwhile, Ford is set to manufacture its electric Mustang Mach-E in China with its joint venture Changan Ford.Amid soaring demand, competition is heating up in the China EV market. Even with the subsidies ending in 2022, the e-mobility battle in China is getting fiercer by the day with new upstarts, legacy automakers and tech titans foraying into the space.A few days back, China’s leading smartphone maker Xiaomi announced that it is set to invest $10 billion in the development of EVs over the next 10 years. The company intends to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary with an initial investment of around $1.5 billion.Ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing has also launched an EV unit and collaborated with BYD to develop EVs designed for its services. Telecom equipment giant Huawei Technology also aims to launch electric cars under its brand and may roll out a couple of models this year. Search engine behemoth Baidu also announced plans to launch an electric car business in January.Chip Deficit to Play SpoilsportWhile China’s vehicle sales have rebounded quite strongly, will the recovery sustain amid the global chip crunch? Well, CAAM has already warned that the chip shortage is set to adversely impact auto production in the nation in second-quarter 2021. The agency does not expect the shortfall to ease until the fourth quarter of this year.Although China is the largest auto market, it depends heavily on chip imports and is the largest buyer of semiconductors. Amid the chip shortfall, carmakers are scrambling to procure semiconductors, which are forcing them to undergo production cuts and idle factories. NIO shuttered operations for five days beginning Mar 29 due to microchip shortfall. Volvo Cars, owned by Geely Holdings, also halted production last month. In the absence of a quick solution to this chip problem, auto industry recovery in China may soon be losing steam.These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the PandemicThe COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343251987,"gmtCreate":1617720230049,"gmtModify":1634296914006,"author":{"id":"3579411687909792","authorId":"3579411687909792","name":"Dngl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b4baa34d4fd68e2024c10f5dffd33e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579411687909792","idStr":"3579411687909792"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Kthxbye","listText":"Kthxbye","text":"Kthxbye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343251987","repostId":"1101907559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101907559","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617672655,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1101907559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 09:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101907559","media":"marketwatch","summary":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management. Its reach and operating practices were","content":"<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Financial crises get triggered about every 10 years — Archegos might be right on time<blockquote>观点：金融危机大约每 10 年就会引发一次——Archegos 可能是对的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-06 09:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.</b>  Financial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>目前，没有人能确定所谓家族办公室数十亿美元的投资损失不会蔓延。</b>金融危机永远不会完全相同。20 世纪 80 年代末，全国近三分之一的储蓄和贷款协会倒闭，最终纳税人获得了约 2650 亿美元的救助（按 2021 年计算）。</blockquote></p><p> In 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.</p><p><blockquote>1997-1998年，亚洲和俄罗斯的金融危机导致美国最大的对冲基金——长期资本管理公司（LTCM）几近崩溃。它的影响力和运作方式如此之大，以至于美联储主席艾伦-格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）说，当 LTCM 失败时，“他一生中从未见过任何能与他感受到的恐怖相提并论的东西”。LTCM 被认为 “大到不能倒”，他策划了 14 家美国主要金融机构的救助计划。</blockquote></p><p> Exactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.</p><p><blockquote>整整十年后，其中一些机构过度使用杠杆，以及美国房地产泡沫的破裂，导致美国金融体系几近崩溃。大银行又一次被认为太大而不能倒，纳税人出手相救。</blockquote></p><p> The trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different.&nbsp;Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?</p><p><blockquote>趋势？每隔10年左右，它们看起来都不一样。随着家族办公室Archegos Capital Management LP的爆炸，我们现在是否正处于新危机的早期阶段？</blockquote></p><p> A family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.</p><p><blockquote>对于门外汉来说，家族办公室是超级富豪的私人财富管理工具。这就是我所说的超级富豪的意思： 咨询公司安永估计，全球约有 10,000 家家族理财室，但市场研究公司坎普登研究公司（Campden Research）的另一项估计显示，管理规模接近 6 万亿美元。鉴于 2019 年的数据，这 6 万亿美元现在可能要高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Unregulated money managers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不受监管的资金管理人</b></blockquote></p><p> Here’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)</p><p><blockquote>这就是潜在的危险。家族理财室一般不受监管。1940 年的《投资顾问法》规定，拥有 15 家或以下客户的公司无需向美国证券交易委员会注册。这意味着数万亿美元在起作用，没有人能真正说出谁在管理这笔钱，投资了什么，使用了多少杠杆，以及可能存在什么样的交易对手风险。（交易对手风险是指参与金融交易的一方可能违反对另一方的合同义务的概率。）</blockquote></p><p> This appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player&nbsp;Vipshop Holdings&nbsp;Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company&nbsp;GSX Techedu&nbsp;Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS&nbsp;Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and&nbsp;Discovery&nbsp;Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.</p><p><blockquote>Archegos似乎就是这种情况。该公司大力押注某些中国股票，包括电子商务公司唯品会控股有限公司（Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS），-1.19%，美国上市中国辅导公司跟谁学公司（GSX），-10.63%，以及美国媒体公司ViacomCBS Inc.VIAC，-3.90%和Discovery Inc.DISCA，-3.86%等。股价最近暴跌，引发了 Archegos 的大规模出售——约 300 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including&nbsp;Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%,&nbsp;Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc.&nbsp;NMR,+1.87%.</p><p><blockquote>问题是，其中只有大约三分之一，即100亿美元，是它自己的钱。我们现在知道 Archegos 与华尔街的一些大公司合作，包括瑞士信贷集团 AGCS（+1.59%）、瑞银集团 AGUBS（+1.01%）、高盛集团 GS（-1.25%）、摩根士丹利 MS（-0.28%）、德意志银行 AGDB，+0.74% 和野村控股公司 NMR，+1.87%。</blockquote></p><p> But since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre&nbsp;reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.</p><p><blockquote>但是，由于家族理财室在很大程度上被允许不受监管地运营，谁能说出这里到底涉及多少钱，市场风险有多大？我的同事马克-德坎布雷（Mark DeCambre）上周报道称，Archegos 的真实不良交易风险实际上可能接近 1000 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Danger of counterparty risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易对手风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.</p><p><blockquote>这就是交易对手风险的来源。随着 Archegos 的赌注走向南方，上述银行--考虑到自己的损失--用保证金评级打击了该公司。德意志银行很快抛售了约 40 亿美元的持股，而据说高盛和摩根士丹利也已解除头寸，这或许限制了它们的下行空间。</blockquote></p><p> So is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.</p><p><blockquote>那么这是金融危机吗？似乎并非如此。即便如此，美国证券交易委员会已对 Archegos 及其创始人 Bill Hwang 展开初步调查。</blockquote></p><p> One peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.</p><p><blockquote>一位同行，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee，将评级-黄（John Hwang）列为他所知道的 “十大最佳投资头脑 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> But federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.</p><p><blockquote>但联邦监管机构的意见可能较少。2012 年，黄的前对冲基金老虎亚洲管理公司（Tiger Asia Management）被指控利用有关中国银行的非法线索进行交易，认罪并支付了 6000 多万美元的罚款。美国证券交易委员会禁止黄代表客户管理资金——实质上将他逐出了对冲基金行业。于是 Hwang 开了 Archegos，再说一遍，家族办公室一般都不受监管。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yellen on the case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耶伦谈此案</b></blockquote></p><p> This issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”</p><p><blockquote>这个问题引起了财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）的关注。她上周表示，需要对金融业的这些私人角落进行更严格的监管。她监管的金融稳定监督委员会（FSOC）重新启动了一个特别工作组，以帮助各机构更好地 “共享数据、识别风险并努力加强我们的金融体系”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Most financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.</p><p><blockquote>大多数金融危机最终都是美国纳税人陷入困境。收益属于冒险者。但是损失——它们属于我们。套用亚伯·林肯的话来说，家族理财室——一个价值数万亿美元的行业，在很大程度上被允许在比以往任何时候都更加错综复杂的全球金融体系的阴影中运作——属于超级富豪，由超级富豪拥有，为超级富豪服务。没有其他人。</blockquote></p><p> The Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?</p><p><blockquote>Archegos的崩溃可能是也可能不是另一场金融危机的开始。但是，谁能说成千上万的其他家族理财室如何处理他们的数万亿美元，以及类似的问题是否会爆发？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-crises-happen-about-every-10-years-which-makes-the-archegos-meltdown-unnerving-11617634942?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101907559","content_text":"No one, for now, can say for sure that the so-called family office’s billions in investment losses won’t spread.\n\nFinancial crises are never quite the same. During the late 1980s, nearly a third of the nation’s savings and loan associations failed, ending with a taxpayer bailout — in 2021 terms — of about $265 billion.\nIn 1997-1998, financial crises in Asia and Russia led to the near meltdown of the largest hedge fund in the U.S. —Long-Term Capital Management(LTCM). Its reach and operating practices were such that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that when LTCM failed, “he had never seen anything in his lifetime that compared to the terror” he felt. LTCM was deemed “too big to fail,” and he engineered a bailout by 14 major U.S. financial institutions.\nExactly a decade later, too much leverage by some of those very institutions, and the bursting of a U.S. real estate bubble, led to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system. Once again, big banks were deemed too big to fail and taxpayers came to the rescue.\nThe trend? Every 10 years or so, and they all look different. Are we in the early stages of a new crisis now, with the blowup at the family office Archegos Capital Management LP?\nA family office, for the uninitiated, is a private wealth management vehicle for the ultra-wealthy. Here’s what I mean by ultra-wealthy: Consulting firm EY estimates there are some 10,000 family offices globally, but manage, says a separate estimate by market research firm Campden Research, nearly $6 trillion. That $6 trillion is likely far higher now given that it’s based on 2019 data.\nUnregulated money managers\nHere’s the potential danger. Family offices generally aren’t regulated. The 1940 Investment Advisers Act says firms with 15 clients or fewer don’t have to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission. What this means is that trillions of dollars are in play and no one can really say who’s running the money, what it’s invested in, how much leverage is being used, and what kind of counterparty risk may exist. (Counterparty risk is the probability that one party involved in a financial transaction could default on a contractual obligation to someone else.)\nThis appears to be the case with Archegos. The firm bet heavily on certain Chinese stocks, including e-commerce player Vipshop Holdings Ltd.VIPS,-1.19%,U.S.-listed Chinese tutoring company GSX Techedu Inc.GSX,-10.63%and U.S. media companiesViacomCBS Inc.VIAC,-3.90%and Discovery Inc.DISCA,-3.86%,among others. Share prices have tumbled lately, sparking large sales — some $30 billion — by Archegos.\nThe problem is that only about a third of that, or $10 billion, was its own money. We now know that Archegos worked with some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including Credit Suisse Group AGCS,+1.59%,UBS Group AGUBS,+1.01%,Goldman Sachs Group Inc.GS,-1.25%, Morgan StanleyMS,-0.28%,Deutsche Bank AGDB,+0.74%and Nomura Holdings Inc. NMR,+1.87%.\nBut since family offices are largely allowed to operate unregulated, who’s to say how much money is really involved here and what the extent of market risk is? My colleague Mark DeCambre reported last week that Archegos’ true exposures to bad trades could actuallybe closer to $100 billion.\nDanger of counterparty risk\nThis is where counterparty risk comes in. As Archegos’ bets went south, the above banks — looking at losses of their own — hit the firm with margin calls. Deutsche quickly dumped about $4 billion in holdings, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley are also said to have unwound their positions, perhaps limiting their downside.\nSo is this a financial crisis? It doesn’t appear to be. Even so, the Securities and Exchange Commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Archegos and its founder, Bill Hwang.\nOne peer, Tom Lee, the research chief of Fundstrat Global Advisors, calls Hwang one of the “top 10 of the best investment minds” he knows.\nBut federal regulators may have a lesser opinion. In 2012, Hwang’s former hedge fund, Tiger Asia Management, pleaded guilty and paid more than $60 million in penalties after it was accused of trading on illegal tips about Chinese banks. The SEC banned Hwang from managing money on behalf of clients — essentially booting him from the hedge fund industry. So Hwang opened Archegos, and again, family offices aren’t generally aren’t regulated.\nYellen on the case\nThis issue is on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s radar. She said last week that greater oversight of these private corners of the financial industry is needed. The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC), which she oversees, has revived a task force to help agencies better “share data, identify risks and work to strengthen our financial system.”\nMost financial crises end up with American taxpayers getting stuck with the tab. Gains belong to the risk-takers. But losses — they belong to us. To paraphrase Abe Lincoln, family offices — a multi-trillion dollar industry largely allowed to operate in the shadows in a global financial system that is more intertwined than ever — are of the super-wealthy, by the super-wealthy and for the super-wealthy. And no one else.\nThe Archegos collapse may or may not be the beginning of yet another financial crisis. But who’s to say what thousands of other family offices are doing with their trillions, and whether similar problems could blow up?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}