Jlenglui的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jlenglui

Jlenglui

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02-21

$MSTR 20250228 300.0 PUT$ bitcoin bull mstr bull 🤣

01-16

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Anyone interested to join my team please join Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

01-03

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Come join my team. Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

2024-12-26

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:

2025 Tiger Brokers Trade To Win

2024-07-04

Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.

2024-07-04

Good performance will do better this month

2024-07-04

500 coins

2024-06-28

Niceeee tiger thanks a lot

2024-06-20

so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend

2021-12-19

Ij

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-16

Nice

Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp

2021-11-27

Tfyfuf

@Jlenglui:Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-11-27

Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-08-17

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-08

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-07

ij

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-04

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

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With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","listText":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","text":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","images":[{"img":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/files/h5-repos/market/stock-game/1200_630_1.png"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385903066136848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574301438096,"gmtCreate":1720023121047,"gmtModify":1720023125497,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","listText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","text":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th 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lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321766880694480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318955842441360,"gmtCreate":1718883600215,"gmtModify":1718883604863,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","listText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","text":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just 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class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 20:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 1.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179149645","content_text":"Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 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09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p>\n<p>In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p>\n<p>Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p>\n<p>Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p>\n<p>The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p>\n<p>In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>\n <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>\n <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><i>Digging a little deeper</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>\n <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p>\n<p>In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 09:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371913867,"gmtCreate":1618900932259,"gmtModify":1634290028771,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371913867","repostId":"1151028630","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142299259,"gmtCreate":1626150623871,"gmtModify":1633929607573,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142299259","repostId":"2151324245","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187487863,"gmtCreate":1623762092952,"gmtModify":1634028788672,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You","listText":"You","text":"You","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187487863","repostId":"1156005756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":345312419,"gmtCreate":1618278430731,"gmtModify":1634293993522,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🐯hi 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09:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Lyft and Uber Report Earnings This Week. Here’s What to Expect.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189156110","media":"Barrons","summary":"The recovery in the ride-sharing business is picking up steam. Whether it will be enough to re-energ","content":"<p>The recovery in the ride-sharing business is picking up steam. Whether it will be enough to re-energize investors about Uber Technologies and Lyft, we’ll find out this week.</p>\n<p>Lyft (ticker: LYFT) reports June-quarter earnings on Tuesday after the close of trading, with Uber (UBER) following 24 hours later. In both cases, results should show a huge rebound from the year ago quarter, when demand collapsed amid the nearly complete shutdown of consumer and business travel. Talk about your easy comparisons: In the June 2020 quarter,Uber’s revenue fell 33%, while Lyft’s top line&nbsp;dropped 61%, with Uber’s smaller decline reflecting growth in its food-delivery arm.</p>\n<p>For the June 2021 quarter, Street estimates call for Uber to post revenue of $3.74 billion, up 67% from a year ago, with Lyft expected to jump 105%, to $696 million. For Uber, Street consensus calls for Rides revenue of $1.7 billion, up 118%, with Eats also projected to be $1.7 billion, up 44%. Neither is expected to be profitable in the quarter: projections call for per-share losses of 51 cents for Uber and 24 cents for Lyft.</p>\n<p>For the year to date through Friday, Lyft stock has risen 13%, while Uber stock has slipped 15%, as investors looking for a reopening bet leaned toward the purer play on a domestic pick up in ride-sharing, rather than the more-diversified bet in Uber. Also weighing on Uber shares: the company’s substantial stake in the China-based ride-sharing company DiDi (DIDI), which has tumbled since its recent initial public offering, after&nbsp;receiving intense scrutinyfrom Chinese regulators.</p>\n<p>On Monday, with earnings just ahead, Gordon Haskett analyst Robert Mollins picked up coverage of both stocks, starting Uber with a Buy rating and $65 target price—which would be a potential return of about 50%—while launching coverage of Lyft with a Hold rating and $59 target price.</p>\n<p>“We view Uber as a company that continues to further ingrain itself in the everyday lives of consumers, which will lead to share gains across both rides and delivery and in turn upward top- and bottom-line revision over the coming years,” Mollins writes in his research note. “In the near-term, Uber offers investors exposure to reopening (rides) and defense against a prolonged Covid backdrop (delivery). Furthermore, we see Uber as well positioned to capitalize on a structural shift toward convenience with its restaurant and grocery delivery offerings. We also believe Uber Freight is an underappreciated business that will become a leader in the freight brokerage industry.”</p>\n<p>Mollins finds Lyft shares less appealing. While he notes that bears on the stock have been wrong in their view that Lyft can’t effectively compete against Uber, he thinks Lyft’s singular focus on the U.S. ride-sharing market is a disadvantage. He thinks Uber’s “super app” approach will result in market-share gains at Lyft’s expense.</p>\n<p>As for the June quarter, analysts are generally upbeat about the pending results. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has Outperform ratings on both Uber and Lyft, thinks the reports should provide evidence that the two companies are making progress on their push to reach break-even as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda.</p>\n<p>As noted, the easy comparisons should result in huge growth. “We expect to get good news around underlying ride-sharing demand metrics and profitability outlook despite the delta variant, and expect to see a healthier equilibrium going forward,” Ives writes in a research note. “We view Uber and Lyft as strong names to play the reopening theme.”</p>\n<p>On Monday, BofA Global Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated his Buy rating and $71 target price on on Uber shares, while lifting his estimates for the quarter. He notes that there are multiple reasons the stock has come under pressure, including perceived risk from the company’s pending&nbsp;Transplace freight logistics acquisition, weakness tied to the company’s DiDi stake, reports that SoftBank has sold a portion of its Uber stake, and concerns about extended wait times and high prices for rides. But he adds that despite all of those concerns, Uber should see estimates ratchet higher as the mobility business improvement and investor sentiment recovers.</p>\n<p>Uber stock is up 0.1% Monday to $43.49, while Lyft stock is up 1.2%, to $56.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lyft and Uber Report Earnings This Week. Here’s What to Expect.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLyft and Uber Report Earnings This Week. Here’s What to Expect.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-03 09:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/lyft-uber-report-earnings-what-to-expect-51627921408?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The recovery in the ride-sharing business is picking up steam. Whether it will be enough to re-energize investors about Uber Technologies and Lyft, we’ll find out this week.\nLyft (ticker: LYFT) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/lyft-uber-report-earnings-what-to-expect-51627921408?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LYFT":"Lyft, Inc.","UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/lyft-uber-report-earnings-what-to-expect-51627921408?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189156110","content_text":"The recovery in the ride-sharing business is picking up steam. Whether it will be enough to re-energize investors about Uber Technologies and Lyft, we’ll find out this week.\nLyft (ticker: LYFT) reports June-quarter earnings on Tuesday after the close of trading, with Uber (UBER) following 24 hours later. In both cases, results should show a huge rebound from the year ago quarter, when demand collapsed amid the nearly complete shutdown of consumer and business travel. Talk about your easy comparisons: In the June 2020 quarter,Uber’s revenue fell 33%, while Lyft’s top line dropped 61%, with Uber’s smaller decline reflecting growth in its food-delivery arm.\nFor the June 2021 quarter, Street estimates call for Uber to post revenue of $3.74 billion, up 67% from a year ago, with Lyft expected to jump 105%, to $696 million. For Uber, Street consensus calls for Rides revenue of $1.7 billion, up 118%, with Eats also projected to be $1.7 billion, up 44%. Neither is expected to be profitable in the quarter: projections call for per-share losses of 51 cents for Uber and 24 cents for Lyft.\nFor the year to date through Friday, Lyft stock has risen 13%, while Uber stock has slipped 15%, as investors looking for a reopening bet leaned toward the purer play on a domestic pick up in ride-sharing, rather than the more-diversified bet in Uber. Also weighing on Uber shares: the company’s substantial stake in the China-based ride-sharing company DiDi (DIDI), which has tumbled since its recent initial public offering, after receiving intense scrutinyfrom Chinese regulators.\nOn Monday, with earnings just ahead, Gordon Haskett analyst Robert Mollins picked up coverage of both stocks, starting Uber with a Buy rating and $65 target price—which would be a potential return of about 50%—while launching coverage of Lyft with a Hold rating and $59 target price.\n“We view Uber as a company that continues to further ingrain itself in the everyday lives of consumers, which will lead to share gains across both rides and delivery and in turn upward top- and bottom-line revision over the coming years,” Mollins writes in his research note. “In the near-term, Uber offers investors exposure to reopening (rides) and defense against a prolonged Covid backdrop (delivery). Furthermore, we see Uber as well positioned to capitalize on a structural shift toward convenience with its restaurant and grocery delivery offerings. We also believe Uber Freight is an underappreciated business that will become a leader in the freight brokerage industry.”\nMollins finds Lyft shares less appealing. While he notes that bears on the stock have been wrong in their view that Lyft can’t effectively compete against Uber, he thinks Lyft’s singular focus on the U.S. ride-sharing market is a disadvantage. He thinks Uber’s “super app” approach will result in market-share gains at Lyft’s expense.\nAs for the June quarter, analysts are generally upbeat about the pending results. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has Outperform ratings on both Uber and Lyft, thinks the reports should provide evidence that the two companies are making progress on their push to reach break-even as measured by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda.\nAs noted, the easy comparisons should result in huge growth. “We expect to get good news around underlying ride-sharing demand metrics and profitability outlook despite the delta variant, and expect to see a healthier equilibrium going forward,” Ives writes in a research note. “We view Uber and Lyft as strong names to play the reopening theme.”\nOn Monday, BofA Global Securities analyst Justin Post reiterated his Buy rating and $71 target price on on Uber shares, while lifting his estimates for the quarter. He notes that there are multiple reasons the stock has come under pressure, including perceived risk from the company’s pending Transplace freight logistics acquisition, weakness tied to the company’s DiDi stake, reports that SoftBank has sold a portion of its Uber stake, and concerns about extended wait times and high prices for rides. But he adds that despite all of those concerns, Uber should see estimates ratchet higher as the mobility business improvement and investor sentiment recovers.\nUber stock is up 0.1% Monday to $43.49, while Lyft stock is up 1.2%, to $56.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LYFT":0.9,"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148768752,"gmtCreate":1626018698676,"gmtModify":1633930883564,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148768752","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p>\n<p>When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p>\n<p>It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p>\n<p>The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p>\n<p>That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p>\n<p>While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p>\n<p>Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p>\n<p>A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p>\n<p>“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p>\n<p>The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p>\n<p>Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p>\n<p>The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p>\n<p>Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p>\n<p>These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p>\n<p>To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p>\n<p>But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p>\n<p>“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p>\n<p>Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p>\n<p>But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p>\n<p>“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p>\n<p>The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p>\n<p>— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p>\n<p>It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p>\n<p>Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p>\n<p>With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p>\n<p>“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p>\n<p>Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p>\n<p>AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p>\n<p>Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p>\n<p>Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p>\n<p>In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p>\n<p>There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p>\n<p>For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p>\n<p>For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p>\n<p>New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p>\n<p>Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p>\n<p>Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p>\n<p>The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p>\n<p>The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p>\n<p>Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p>\n<p>As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p>\n<p>To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p>\n<p>Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p>\n<p>Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p>\n<p>“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p>\n<p>“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p>\n<p>The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p>\n<p>Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p>\n<p>Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p>\n<p>In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p>\n<p>Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p>\n<p>Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. 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What Investors Need to Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-11 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","SCHW":"嘉信理财","BB":"黑莓","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRIN":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"GME":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148768617,"gmtCreate":1626018675939,"gmtModify":1631883982875,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"one","listText":"one","text":"one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148768617","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124572551,"gmtCreate":1624775632473,"gmtModify":1633948705529,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hhh","listText":"Hhh","text":"Hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124572551","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>\n <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>\n <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>\n <li>I hope you enjoy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p>\n<p>Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p>\n<p>This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p>\n<p>But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Rule 1 Investing\n</blockquote>\n<p>This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p>\n<p>As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p>\n<p>And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p>\n<p>Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p>\n<p>For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p>\n<p>And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p>\n<p>Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p>\n<p>These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p>\n<p><b>Capital Allocation</b></p>\n<p>How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p>\n<blockquote>\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,\n <i>emphasis added</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p>\n<p>Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p>\n<p>This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p>\n<p>Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p>\n<p>These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p>\n<p>Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p>\n<p>The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p>\n<p>\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p>\n<p>But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p>\n<p><b>Recap</b></p>\n<p>Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p>\n<p>But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p>\n<p>Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p>\n<p>Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108728106,"gmtCreate":1620056131705,"gmtModify":1634208163829,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ihf","listText":"Ihf","text":"Ihf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108728106","repostId":"2132597776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800429766,"gmtCreate":1627313259855,"gmtModify":1633766203965,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579491276699992","authorIdStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800429766","repostId":"1126483906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126483906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627312464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126483906?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126483906","media":"Benzinga","summary":"It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like Boeing (NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.\nAfte","content":"<p>It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.</p>\n<p>After resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.</p>\n<p>All of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.</p>\n<p>Going into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</p>\n<p>The 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.</p>\n<p>This issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.</p>\n<p>To make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Earnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends</p>\n<p>The company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.</p>\n<p>BA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.</p>\n<p>However, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call,&nbsp;<b>Delta</b>(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b312d27469daa156236d67dd0b89e2b\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>FIGURE 1:</b>&nbsp;<b>LONG DESCENT</b>. Shares of&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform from TD&nbsp;Ameritrade.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p>At a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.</p>\n<p>“We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”</p>\n<p>One thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.</p>\n<p><b>Quarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid</b></p>\n<p>Before the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.</p>\n<p>For instance, in late June,&nbsp;<b>United Airlines</b>(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.</p>\n<p>The UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.</p>\n<p>Boeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.</p>\n<p>Last time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.</p>\n<p>At the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.</p>\n<p>“Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.</p>\n<p>That guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.</p>\n<p>Last time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.</p>\n<p>Reuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.</p>\n<p>Things seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.</p>\n<p>Looking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.</p>\n<p>Boeing Earnings And Options Activity</p>\n<p>BA is expected to report<b>&nbsp;adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share</b>, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates.&nbsp;<b>Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion</b>—up 51% from a year ago.</p>\n<p>The options market has priced in a&nbsp;<b>3.3% stock move</b>&nbsp;in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the&nbsp;thinkorswim®&nbsp;platform.</p>\n<p>Looking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-26 23:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.</p>\n<p>After resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.</p>\n<p>All of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.</p>\n<p>Going into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</p>\n<p>The 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.</p>\n<p>This issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.</p>\n<p>To make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Earnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends</p>\n<p>The company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.</p>\n<p>BA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.</p>\n<p>However, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call,&nbsp;<b>Delta</b>(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b312d27469daa156236d67dd0b89e2b\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>FIGURE 1:</b>&nbsp;<b>LONG DESCENT</b>. Shares of&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform from TD&nbsp;Ameritrade.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p>\n<p>At a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.</p>\n<p>“We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”</p>\n<p>One thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.</p>\n<p><b>Quarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid</b></p>\n<p>Before the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.</p>\n<p>For instance, in late June,&nbsp;<b>United Airlines</b>(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.</p>\n<p>The UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.</p>\n<p>Boeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.</p>\n<p>Last time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.</p>\n<p>At the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.</p>\n<p>“Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.</p>\n<p>That guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.</p>\n<p>Last time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.</p>\n<p>Reuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.</p>\n<p>Things seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.</p>\n<p>Looking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.</p>\n<p>Boeing Earnings And Options Activity</p>\n<p>BA is expected to report<b>&nbsp;adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share</b>, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates.&nbsp;<b>Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion</b>—up 51% from a year ago.</p>\n<p>The options market has priced in a&nbsp;<b>3.3% stock move</b>&nbsp;in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the&nbsp;thinkorswim®&nbsp;platform.</p>\n<p>Looking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126483906","content_text":"It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like Boeing (NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.\nAfter resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.\nAll of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.\nGoing into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.\nThe 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.\nThis issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.\nTo make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.\nEarnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends\nThe company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.\nBA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.\nHowever, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call, Delta(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.\n\nFIGURE 1: LONG DESCENT. Shares of Boeing (BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nAt a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.\n“We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”\nOne thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.\nQuarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid\nBefore the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.\nFor instance, in late June, United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.\nThe UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.\nBoeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.\nLast time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.\nAt the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.\n“Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.\nThat guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.\nLast time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.\nReuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.\nThings seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.\nLooking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.\nBoeing Earnings And Options Activity\nBA is expected to report adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion—up 51% from a year ago.\nThe options market has priced in a 3.3% stock move in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the thinkorswim® platform.\nLooking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}