Jlenglui的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Jlenglui

Jlenglui

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187粉丝

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0勋章

2021-04-07

HiiiThis

2021-11-27

Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-04-18

Hi

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-03

Hi let’s study together

2021-07-05

Yes

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-27

Tfyfuf

@Jlenglui:Okiedokie ogxoydlyfpyfoyfpyflyfufut

2021-12-16

Nice

Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp<blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点至25个基点</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-13

Ok

Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote>

2021-04-20

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-13

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

You

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-13

🐯hi tesla

2021-06-27

Yes

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-03

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-11

Tell me your opinion about this news...

The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>

2021-07-11

one

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-27

Hhh

Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>

2021-05-03

Ihf

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-26

I

Boeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes<blockquote>波音公司应对影响787飞机的新障碍，盈利方法</blockquote>

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With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","listText":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","text":"Join my team. With my record, let's fly together Find out more here:","images":[{"img":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/files/h5-repos/market/stock-game/1200_630_1.png"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385903066136848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574301438096,"gmtCreate":1720023121047,"gmtModify":1720023125497,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","listText":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th performance.&nbsp;","text":"Aim to go in top 15 with this mo th 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month","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323574278467640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323574482690056,"gmtCreate":1720023005513,"gmtModify":1720023009285,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"500 coins","listText":"500 coins","text":"500 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lot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321766880694480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":318955842441360,"gmtCreate":1718883600215,"gmtModify":1718883604863,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","listText":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just hedge the position using both put and call options. and let time be your friend","text":"so far i up 20%. using options is the king. just 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10bp<blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点至25个基点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 1.</p><p><blockquote>英国央行再次出人意料，这次加息从10个基点升至25个基点，其加息投票结果为8比1。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179149645","content_text":"Bank of England surprises again, this time with hike to 25bp from 10bp,its vote to hike rates was 8 to 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":833882427,"gmtCreate":1629215990969,"gmtModify":1631889654373,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833882427","repostId":"1132985416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142291652,"gmtCreate":1626150727476,"gmtModify":1633929606111,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142291652","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益将同比增长61%，这得益于基数效应、22%的销售增长和256个基点的净利润扩张至11.1%，尽管预计股票中位数每股收益将增长24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上季度一样，金融股预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占每股收益总额9美元中的3美元，超出了市场普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融股每股收益将增长116%，占标普500每股收益增长的25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继2020年和2021年第一季度的强劲增长之后，资本市场活动已经正常化。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三季度提振每股收益，并可能在年底前推动银行每股收益增长高达18%。</b>尽管由于发布是非经常性的，投资者不太可能直接奖励这些业绩，但分析师预计，市场将为盈利顺风和最近的CCAR结果可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一点值得注意：<b>虽然市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长61%，但预计该股的盈利中位数仅增长24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总收益的更大反弹很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者说2020年收益的更大幅度下降；2020年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中位数仅同比下降12%，而总收益下降了32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占市值的22%，占标普500 2021年第二季度每股收益的14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济严重萎缩，但这些公司的每股收益实际上平均增长了38%，预计2021年第二季度的盈利平均增长52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在第二季度财报季的预览中——<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔指数今年收盘价为4,300点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌-0.5%</b>-重点关注本财报季向管理层提出的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响商业前景？利率暴跌，高“质量”主题表现出色。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1.在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>标普500利润率在2021年第一季度创下11.9%的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍然关注远期利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，共同增加了全球企业的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了涨价问题，这种趋势可能会在第二季度财报中持续下去。或者，随着SG&amp;A占销售额的比例较历史有所上升，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的成本，并将实施成本削减和价格上涨的组合。</li><li><b>2.投资者已经开始奖励具有有吸引力的保证金状况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二重要驱动因素，仅次于股权久期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中性因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自6月初以来，其他“质量”因素，如资产负债表强劲与疲软以及资本回报率高与低，也有所走高。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3.随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率总额和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去18个月创纪录的公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管与历史相比，杠杆率仍然很高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500（不含金融）现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在2020年现金支出下降10%后，该行预测，高现金余额、低迷的收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动2021年现金支出增长19%（2.8万亿美元）和6%2022年（3万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、研发和现金并购）应占现金总支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及CCAR后金融界的过剩资本也应该会推动2021年回购反弹35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，美国<b>年初至今，企业已授权回购6270亿美元，是有记录以来第二快的回购速度</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在首选交易方面，Kostin重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020年实现利润率增长50+bp、预计未来两年每年利润率增长50+bp的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>该股2021年净利润率中位数为26%（标普500中位数为13%），预计到2022年利润率将增长306个基点（中位数为156个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益将同比增长61%，这得益于基数效应、22%的销售增长和256个基点的净利润扩张至11.1%，尽管预计股票中位数每股收益将增长24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上季度一样，金融股预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占每股收益总额9美元中的3美元，超出了市场普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融股每股收益将增长116%，占标普500每股收益增长的25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继2020年和2021年第一季度的强劲增长之后，资本市场活动已经正常化。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三季度提振每股收益，并可能在年底前推动银行每股收益增长高达18%。</b>尽管由于发布是非经常性的，投资者不太可能直接奖励这些业绩，但分析师预计，市场将为盈利顺风和最近的CCAR结果可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一点值得注意：<b>虽然市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长61%，但预计该股的盈利中位数仅增长24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总收益的更大反弹很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者说2020年收益的更大幅度下降；2020年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中位数仅同比下降12%，而总收益下降了32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占市值的22%，占标普500 2021年第二季度每股收益的14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济严重萎缩，但这些公司的每股收益实际上平均增长了38%，预计2021年第二季度的盈利平均增长52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在第二季度财报季的预览中——<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔指数今年收盘价为4,300点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌-0.5%</b>-重点关注本财报季向管理层提出的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响商业前景？利率暴跌，高“质量”主题表现出色。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1.在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>标普500利润率在2021年第一季度创下11.9%的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍然关注远期利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，共同增加了全球企业的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了涨价问题，这种趋势可能会在第二季度财报中持续下去。或者，随着SG&amp;A占销售额的比例较历史有所上升，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的成本，并将实施成本削减和价格上涨的组合。</li><li><b>2.投资者已经开始奖励具有有吸引力的保证金状况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二重要驱动因素，仅次于股权久期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中性因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自6月初以来，其他“质量”因素，如资产负债表强劲与疲软以及资本回报率高与低，也有所走高。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3.随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率总额和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去18个月创纪录的公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管与历史相比，杠杆率仍然很高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500（不含金融）现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在2020年现金支出下降10%后，该行预测，高现金余额、低迷的收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动2021年现金支出增长19%（2.8万亿美元）和6%2022年（3万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、研发和现金并购）应占现金总支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及CCAR后金融界的过剩资本也应该会推动2021年回购反弹35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，美国<b>年初至今，企业已授权回购6270亿美元，是有记录以来第二快的回购速度</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在首选交易方面，Kostin重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020年实现利润率增长50+bp、预计未来两年每年利润率增长50+bp的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>该股2021年净利润率中位数为26%（标普500中位数为13%），预计到2022年利润率将增长306个基点（中位数为156个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median 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me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148768752","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易还远未结束。投资者需要知道的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达（Blockbuster）的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，他们再次崩溃的时间已经在滴答作响。是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经半年了，核心“模因股”的交易水平仍然被研究它们多年的人认为令人发指。Clover Health Investments(CLOV)和Newegg Commerce(NEGG)等新名字最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易者——长期以来被嘲笑为“愚蠢的钱”——的集体努力成功地保持了股票的高位，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型或扭亏为盈的迹象，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告其关键的网络安全部门将触及收入指引的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>尽管大型经纪商的交易量较2月份的峰值略有下降，但仍是大流行前的两到三倍。散户交易者青睐的股票中发生了数量惊人的此类活动。例如，AMC院线控股公司(AMC)6月份股票日均交易价值达到131亿美元，超过苹果(AAPL)的95亿美元和亚马逊(AMZN)的103亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉酸面团面包；交易者只会越来越饥渴。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种胃口，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。就目前而言，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“我发现‘逢低买入’的情绪一刻也没有减弱，”与朋友在线交易的美国海军电子技术员布兰登·卢泽克(Brandon Luczek)在给《巴伦周刊》的电子邮件中写道。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者交易量的增加推动了模因股票的飙升。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，新开户人数超过1000万人。这一纪录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，今年不到一半，经纪商就已经增加了超过1000万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这一现象的马车，也是马。它们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这种行为会推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在一月底和二月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财(SCHW)最近的一项调查发现，15%的当前交易者在2020年之后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>这一激增中最突出的参与者是Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了550万个受资助账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布第一季度吸引了160万35岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在Robinhood零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在2019年将佣金降至零。这为新的客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲钱可供交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在兑现。富达希望在投资者拥有驾驶执照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅13岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood正在乘势进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的10倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与老客户不同。E*Trade（现归摩根士丹利(MS)所有）交易主管克里斯·拉金(Chris Larkin)表示，多年来，“ETF的吸引力很大”。但挑选个股显然是“2021年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好，因为世界各地的投资者都押注于疫情复苏，并避免债券收益率疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但ETF不像股票那样点亮留言板。对于顶级品牌来说，这并不是单程旅行。游戏驿站确实在二月份下跌，华尔街享受了一段幸灾乐祸的时刻。这并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnick)写道：“就像蝉一样，模因交易者在看似地下几个月后，又以疯狂的活动回归。”索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种股票转向另一种股票。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“我认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅调整后，模因股票重新焕发生机，这绝非巧合。”</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为模因股票是一个“独立的行业”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对模因股票革命的反应是孤立市场中专业人士认为非理性的部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也放弃了报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样将零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来17年消失。股票交易已经永久转移。今年，零售活动占股本的24%，高于2019年的15%。新信条的追随者并不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚法学院证券市场教授乔舒亚·米茨（Joshua Mits）说，“这真正反映了我们看到的与个别公司的接触越来越少的趋势的逆转。”“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>——Matt Kohrs，26岁，每天在YouTube上播放股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早期进入的人的生活，并且仍然名气更高。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯（Matt Kohrs）为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了在纽约的程序员工作，搬到了费城，并开始每天在YouTube上播放7个小时的股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>它在YouTube上拥有35万粉丝，正在支付账单。科尔斯表示，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以降低与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票的收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“你得到的挥杆肯定会让你有某种感觉，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给模因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以避开他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC甚至在过去一周取消了拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢Reddit人群的氛围。过去一年，AMC的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官Adam Aron在推特上表示，他看到了对他增发2500万股股票的提议“许多是，许多不是”的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的AMC年会上进行投票。该公司没有回应有关如何对股东进行民意调查的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室中确定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者花更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕散户行为进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在“阿尔法”，但可能需要一些激烈的数字运算才能达到这一目标。当然，并非所有留言板上的喋喋不休都会导致价格持续上涨，而且在没有大量数据分析的情况下，零售订单流无法轻易与机构订单流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在买入和卖出哪些股票的投资者，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的20%的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的20%的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他们认为这几乎就像一份保险单，以限制他们的下行风险，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于散户来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动得到了社区精神的支持。其背后的力量既是经济上的，也是情感上的和道德上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是证明自己和惩罚保守派的愿望，就像利润一样。他们互相了解市场，有时会放大或揭穿有关华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票走势与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街让我们的经济陷入瘫痪，没有人因此惹上麻烦，”26岁的科尔斯说。“所以，我认为他们认为这不仅可以让我们赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格(Claire Hirschberg)是一名28岁的工会组织者，她在从朋友那里听说此事后，于1月份在Robinhood上购买了价值约50美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他父亲是一位长期的资金经理。“他对我买下游戏驿站并拒绝出售感到非常生气，”她笑着说。“这让我想永远拥有它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像旧华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，直到你成为合伙人后，你才会戴菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你永远不会离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而不是这个顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万零售交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认经济损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不监管语言。你是“猿”或“弱智”大军的一员。你坚持住了崩溃，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>群体行动不仅仅是为了道义上的支持。交易策略取决于人们保持购买压力以迫使空头挤压或购买看涨期权，从而触发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔(Keith Gill)二月份几乎出现在众议院金融服务委员会听证会上，成为Reddit零售交易员大军的代言人，推动游戏驿站股价走高。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来为模因运动提供氧气。6月中旬，AMC的空头利息占该股流通量的17%，低于1月份的28%，但幅度不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格的上涨，空头们也身不由己。Wedbush Securities分析师Michael Pachter表示，他们开始“流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”，多年来一直关注游戏驿站。“让我有点震惊的是精神错乱的定义，即一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头不断回来，”他说。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思·吉尔和他的Reddit攻略不断挤压他们，而且它一直在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit人群需要团结一致，但社区有时会出现裂痕。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更多善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经暴跌。Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)在1月底和6月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于1月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人亏损了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心wallstreetbets——最初引发游戏驿站狂热的Reddit留言板——发展如此之快，以至于失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。一些人已经转移到其他留言板，如r/superstonk，希望恢复旧社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司Hype Equity的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔(Travis Rehl)表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常是由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣的。现在，他看到越来越多的股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的议论，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“这引发了人们对什么是真正的讨论与什么是某人只是想炒作的讨论的质疑，”他说。wallstreetbets的版主禁止在该平台上进行市场操纵，Rehl表示，他们似乎正在努力监管错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克表示：“如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让股票在短时间内上涨10%、20%甚至50%，那么就有巨大的动力这样做。”</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>证券交易委员会正在留言板上关注有趣的事情。证交会主席盖瑞·根斯勒和一些国会议员讨论改变市场规则，意图增加透明度保护零售商——尽管如果改变交易速度减慢或让交易变得更贵，这些变化也可能激怒零售商群体。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一可能抑制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根(Dan Egan)认为，这一势头可能会在9月份失去动力。即使是“猿”也有责任。“孩子们开始回到学校；父母可以再次自由地去工作，”他说。“那是下一次从房间里抽出一些氧气的时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金激发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪公司和游戏驿站的乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，这几乎肯定是一件好事，只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注。许多新零售交易员表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并已开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>以这样或那样的形式，这就是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授Hendrik Bessembinder在2018年发表了开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票更有可能亏损而不是赚钱。”简而言之，挑选单一股票并持有集中的投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是受到了新一波交易的鼓舞。“我欢迎零售交易的增加，以及股票市场是一个广泛参与的地方的想法，”贝森宾德说。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond Inc","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","SCHW":"嘉信理财","BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"GME":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"SCHW":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"CARV":0.9,"BB":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"NEGG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148768617,"gmtCreate":1626018675939,"gmtModify":1631883982875,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"one","listText":"one","text":"one","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148768617","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124572551,"gmtCreate":1624775632473,"gmtModify":1633948705529,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hhh","listText":"Hhh","text":"Hhh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124572551","repostId":"1184001921","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184001921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624763737,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184001921?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184001921","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Good Stock, Not Good Price<blockquote>亚马逊：好库存，不好价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.</li>  <li>Unfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.</li>  <li>This article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.</li>  <li>I hope you enjoy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451bc93115fb453c0fcb76434c40f7f4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊是当今世界最具创新力的公司之一，在电子商务行业和云计算服务领域处于领先地位。</li><li>不幸的是，它的价格有点过高。这与我分析过的其他一些大型股是一致的。</li><li>本文探讨了亚马逊股票对美国投资者来说最有可能的价值。</li><li>我希望你喜欢。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.</p><p><blockquote>今天，根据我的内在价值模型，亚马逊（AMZN）的定价似乎有点过高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82d937a2de3f0709088e1ab4548267b\" tg-width=\"371\" tg-height=\"260\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经看过我的其他一些文章，其中我抨击了苹果(AAPL)或微软(MSFT)等其他热门股票。嗯，我想今天轮到亚马逊了。我只是试图分享我认为公司的价值，我发现很多公司似乎定价过高。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将详细介绍我是如何得出亚马逊估值的。我知道关于亚马逊有很多不同的观点，所以我会尝试分享我的估值背后的理由，以帮助您在未来进行更好的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Something important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.</p><p><blockquote>你应该知道一些重要的事情——我不是亚马逊专家，我很难评估成长型股票。我真的很怀疑我有能力估计一家公司未来的增长。我通过查看过去的增长并对未来做出保守的估计来做出未来的增长估计。</blockquote></p><p> This method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法近乎“数据外推”，即根据过去的数据做出假设。数据外推并不好，因为未来与过去不同——所以根据过去的数据进行未来预测并不理想。</blockquote></p><p> But after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.</p><p><blockquote>但在对数百家公司进行估值后，我发现这种风格可以很好地获得大致正确的估值。我总是尽量把我的估值定低，因为低买大赚总比高买亏好。</blockquote></p><p>   Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are  <b>margin of safety</b>.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.    Rule 1 Investing  This model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特说：“投资中最重要的三个词是<b>安全边际</b>意思是买打折的东西....这就是伟大投资的全部秘密。规则1投资该模型的基础是获得“大致正确”的估值，并寻求以较大的安全边际进行购买。我希望你喜欢，一如既往，我会尽量保持它的干净和常识。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Where does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的钱从哪里来？亚马逊分为3个部分：北美、国际和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> As a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.</p><p><blockquote>作为两个高增长行业（电子商务和云计算）的市场领导者，亚马逊未来可能会继续实现高增长。在本节中，我研究了亚马逊每个部门过去的收入增长和营业利润率，并以此做出保守的未来预测。</blockquote></p><p> And later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.</p><p><blockquote>后来，我把每个部门的数字加起来，对整个公司进行预测。以下是亚马逊北美业务的概况。该部门的收入来自零售销售和订阅服务收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce022c0ecacc3829cf83378211bbfd9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"192\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.</p><p><blockquote>我预计该部门的收入增长将下降，营业利润率将强劲。我预计收入增长会放缓，因为我认为亚马逊在北美的收入必须有一个上限。</blockquote></p><p> Hopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>希望亚马逊能够超过这一收入增长。但是，我确实认为亚马逊在5年内将收入从2000亿美元增长到4000亿美元将是一个非常令人难以置信的壮举。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at Amazon's International segment:</p><p><blockquote>以下是亚马逊国际部门的概况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d7a5bde370f55e863f58c888abc496\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"219\"><span>Source: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用2018年10-K、2019年10-K和2020年10-K的数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊的国际部门，我预计年收入将增长20%，营业利润率也将提高。我认为营业利润率将逐渐提高，直到利润率达到与亚马逊在美国市场类似的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:</p><p><blockquote>对于亚马逊最后也是最令人兴奋的部分，AWS是：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769700013871f2cd09e8ce47cfb10966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about&nbsp;17.5% CAGR&nbsp;until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>AWS无疑将为亚马逊带来高增长和高利润。我预计AWS细分市场可能会继续高速增长。我预测25-30%的年收入增长率，因为云计算有很大的增长空间，根据研究和市场，云计算行业应该以17.5%的CAGR增长，直到2025年。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Additionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我预计营业利润率为28%，因为AWS业务受益于运营杠杆。随着越来越多的人使用该软件，该公司能够通过将成本分摊给更多的人来获得更高的利润。亚马逊的营业利润率可能会超过28%，因此亚马逊的公允价值可能会有上升空间。</blockquote></p><p> These projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测加在一起有助于我们计算出整个公司的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Capital Allocation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>资本配置</b></blockquote></p><p> How does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是怎么花钱的？你可能会发现分析亚马逊的资本配置很有趣，这样你就可以看到亚马逊用它的钱做了什么，以及它未来可能投资到哪里。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45f5afa0f641ee1aae39aa69cc150165\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊运营现金流的最大部分用于资本支出。据我所知，亚马逊在过去5年里没有任何分享活动。该公司已经发行了股票——但从现金流量表来看，他们似乎没有通过出售股票筹集到任何资金，也没有花任何钱回购股票。</blockquote></p><p>   In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.  <i>There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.</i>    Source:2020 10-K&nbsp;page 60,  <i>emphasis added</i>  But for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.</p><p><blockquote>2016年2月，董事会批准了一项回购最多50亿美元普通股的计划，没有固定到期日。<i>2018年、2019年或2020年没有回购普通股。</i>资料来源：2020 10-K第60页，<i>增加了强调</i>但就我们而言，这段报价表明亚马逊在过去3年中没有回购任何股票。他们也没有在股息上花任何钱，这很好，因为他们是一家高增长公司。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直在收购和偿还债务上花钱。真正有趣的是，亚马逊在过去5年里积累了大量闲钱。自2016年以来，他们的现金头寸增加了约580亿美元，从2016年底的约260亿美元增加到2020年底的约840亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊拥有比以前多得多的现金，因此我们可以看到未来的支出将用于股息、股票回购、新收购，或者更多将带来增长的商业投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> First, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我对亚马逊使用了7.7%的贴现率，因为这是我发现该公司的加权平均资本成本(WACC)。我假设股权成本为8%，而亚马逊在过去10年中的平均税率约为20-30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c036264f19bb10fdad477a629b40f803\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.</p><p><blockquote>我今天用DCF模型找到了亚马逊的价值。在下面的模型中，您可以在顶部2个红框中看到，我预计该公司的收入增长将较低，营业利润率将强劲。</blockquote></p><p> This model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，到2025年，亚马逊的收入将超过8500亿美元。仔细想想，这绝对是疯狂的，但根据估计的收入增长，这似乎是可行的。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.</p><p><blockquote>目前，沃尔玛（纽约证券交易所股票代码：WMT）以约550B美元的收入领先全球。亚马逊的年收入排名第三，约为3900亿美元。5年后，亚马逊很可能成为世界上收入最高的公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c459abcbda43e35b40379a1083ecae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"510\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.</p><p><blockquote>在该模型的底部，您可以看到有一个红色框，显示无杠杆自由现金流利润率。这基本上衡量了公司收入中有多少将成为业务利润，不包括利息或债务支付。在绿松石盒子中，我应用了贴现率来查看未来现金流今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fa0846616fdc847a3fe1fdf7a09bed\" tg-width=\"267\" tg-height=\"404\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估。该模型预测该股票可能被高估约15%，如果我们今天投资，我们预计未来5年的年回报率约为5%。</blockquote></p><p> These estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote>该等估计乃基于业务应产生的未来现金流量。我并不讨厌亚马逊或任何东西，我只是不认为亚马逊股票在当前价格下会是一项伟大的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Down at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.</p><p><blockquote>在底部，我提出了两个亚马逊股票可能更有吸引力的“买入价格”。这背后的想法是，AMZN股票越便宜，我们可以预期的回报就越高。</blockquote></p><p> The model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.</p><p><blockquote>该模型预计，每股2,200美元的年回报率约为15%，每股1,700美元的年回报率约为22%。</blockquote></p><p> \"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.</p><p><blockquote>“但当股票交易价格接近3,500美元时，将买入价格定为2,000美元似乎不合理吗？”有一点。亚马逊的股价似乎不太可能暴跌至2,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>但我们的想法是，如果我们有耐心，我们可能有机会以低价购买这些股票。去年2月，亚马逊的交易价格低于1,900美元（我希望当时买了一些）。我们将来可能有机会以折扣价购买亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>如今，亚马逊的估值似乎略有高估，因为它似乎在未来5年内提供约5%的年回报率。这并不意味着如果您是长期持有者，您应该出售亚马逊，因为亚马逊应该继续作为电子商务和云计算领域的领导者表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> But if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>但如果你正在寻找下一只投资股票，亚马逊现在似乎太贵了。如果您关注亚马逊已经有一段时间了，并且正在寻求进入，那么现在不是进入亚马逊的最佳时机。</blockquote></p><p> Even if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.</p><p><blockquote>即使我们不投资该股票，我们仍然可以看到亚马逊成为世界上收入最多的公司。我们可以从研究亚马逊和杰夫·贝索斯中学到很多东西。他是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> Thank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.</p><p><blockquote>非常感谢您的阅读，我希望您今天休息得愉快。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436641-amazon-good-stock-not-good-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184001921","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is one of the most innovative companies in the world today, leading the E-commerce industry and cloud computing services.\nUnfortunately, it's a little overpriced. This is consistent with some of the other mega-cap stocks I've analyzed.\nThis article looks at what Amazon stock is most likely worth for us investors.\nI hope you enjoy.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nToday, Amazon (AMZN) seems to be a little overpriced based on my intrinsic value model.\nSource: Author\nYou might have seen some of my other articles where I've bashed other popular stocks like Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). Well, I guess today it's Amazon's turn. I just try to share what I think companies are worth, and I've found that a lot of companies seem to be overpriced.\nIn this article, I'll break down how I came up with Amazon's valuation. I know that there's tons of different opinions out there about Amazon, so I'll try to share the reasoning behind my valuation to help you make better investments in the future.\nSomething important you should know - I'm not an expert on Amazon, and I have a really difficult time valuing growth stocks. I really doubt that I have the ability to estimate a company's future growth. I made future growth estimates by looking at past growth and making conservative estimates of the future.\nThis method borders on \"data extrapolation\", which is making assumptions based on past data. Data extrapolation isn't great because the future is different from the past - so making future projections based on past data isn't ideal.\nBut after valuing hundreds of companies, I've found that this kind of style does a good job of getting the valuation approximately right. I always try to set my valuations low, because it's better to buy low and make a killing than buy high and lose money.\n\n Warren Buffett said, “The three most important words in investing are\n margin of safety.” That means to buy stuff on sale... That's the whole secret to great investing.\n\n\n Rule 1 Investing\n\nThis model is built on getting the valuation \"approximately right,\" and looking to buy with a large margin of safety. I hope you enjoy, and as always, I'll try to keep it clean and common sense.\nBusiness Model\nWhere does Amazon get its money? Amazon is split into 3 segments: North America, International, and AWS.\nAs a market leader in 2 high growth industries (E-commerce and cloud computing), Amazon will probably continue to see high growth in the future. In this section, I looked at the past revenue growth and operating margins for each of Amazon's segments, and I used this to make conservative future projections.\nAnd later, I added up the numbers from each segment to make projections for the whole company. Here's a look at AMZN's North America segment. This segment's revenue comes from retail sales and subscription service revenues.\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nI projected declining revenue growth and strong operating margins for this segment. I projected slower revenue growth, because I figure there has to be a cap on how much money Amazon can make in North America.\nHopefully, Amazon will exceed this revenue growth. But, I do think it would be a pretty incredible feat for Amazon to grow from $200B in revenue to $400B in 5 years.\nHere's a look at Amazon's International segment:\nSource: Author with data from 2018 10-K,2019 10-K, and 2020 10-K\nFor Amazon's international segment, I projected 20% annual revenue growth, and improving operating margins. I figured that operating margins would gradually improve until the margins reached a similar point to what Amazon sees in its US segment.\nAnd for Amazon's last and most exciting segment, here's AWS:\nSource: Author\nAWS is undoubtedly going to bring high growth for Amazon, and high profits. I projected that the AWS segment will probably continue to grow at a high rate. I projected a 25-30% annual revenue growth rate because cloud computing has a lot of room to grow, and according to Research and Markets, the cloud computing industry should grow at about 17.5% CAGR until 2025.\nAdditionally, I projected 28% operating margins, because the AWS business benefits from operating leverage. As more people use the software, the company is able to make higher margins as it spreads costs over more people. It's possible that Amazon could exceed 28% operating margins, so there might be upside to Amazon's fair value.\nThese projections were added together to help us figure out what the entire company should be worth.\nCapital Allocation\nHow does Amazon spend its money? You might find it interesting to analyze Amazon's capital allocation, so you can see what Amazon does with its money, and where it might be investing for the future.\nSource: Author\nThe biggest portion of Amazon's operating cash flows goes towards capital expenditures. From what I can tell, Amazon has not had any share activity over the past 5 years. The company has issued shares - but from the looks of the cash flow statement, it looks like they haven't raised any money from selling shares, and they haven't spent any money buying back shares.\n\n In February 2016, the Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $5.0 billion of our common stock, with no fixed expiration.\n There were no repurchases of common stock in 2018, 2019, or 2020.\n\n\n Source:2020 10-K page 60,\n emphasis added\n\nBut for our purposes, this quote shows that Amazon hasn't bought back any stock over the past 3 years. They also haven't spent any money on dividends, which is good because they're a high growth company.\nAmazon has consistently spent money on acquisitions and paying down debt. What's really interesting is that Amazon has built up a lot of spare cash over the past 5 years. Their cash position has risen about $58B since 2016, going from about $26B at the end of 2016 to about $84B at the end of 2020.\nAmazon has a lot more cash than they used to, so we could see future spending go towards a dividend, share buybacks, new acquisitions, or maybe more business investments that will lead to growth.\nValuation\nFirst, I used a discount rate of 7.7% for Amazon because that's what I found the company's weighted average cost of capital, or WACC, to be. I assumed an 8% cost of equity, and Amazon has averaged somewhere around a 20-30% tax rate over the past 10 years.\nSource: Author\nI used a DCF model to find Amazon's value today. In the model down below, you can see in the top 2 red boxes that I projected that the company would have lower revenue growth and strong operating margins.\nThis model projects that Amazon will have over $850B in revenue by 2025. That's absolutely nuts if you think about it, but based on estimated revenue growth, it seems feasible.\nRight now, Walmart(NYSE:WMT)leads the world in revenue with about $550B. Amazon sits in third place for annual revenue, with about $390B. In 5 years, Amazon could easily have the largest revenue of any company in the world.\nSource: Author\nDown at the bottom of this model, you can see there's a red box that projects unlevered FCF margins. This basically measures how much of the company's revenue will become business profits, without including interest or debt payments. In the turquoise box, I applied the discount rate to see what the future cash flows are worth today.\nSource: Author\nToday, it looks like Amazon is slightly overvalued. The model projects that the stock might be about 15% overvalued, and we could expect to make about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years if we invested today.\nThese estimations are based on the future cash flows that the business should generate. I don't hate Amazon or anything, I just don't think that Amazon stock would make a great investment at current prices.\nDown at the bottom, I threw in 2 \"Buy Prices\" where Amazon stock might be more appealing. The idea behind this is that the cheaper AMZN stock gets, the higher returns we can expect.\nThe model projects that you'd make around 15% annual returns at $2,200 per share, and you might make around 22% annual returns at $1,700 per share.\n\"But doesn't it seem unreasonable to set the buy price in the $2,000s when the stock's trading near $3,500?\" It does a little bit. It seems pretty unlikely that Amazon's share price will nose dive right down past $2,000.\nBut the idea is, if we're patient, we might get an opportunity to buy these shares underpriced. Last February, Amazon traded lower than $1,900 (I wish I bought some back then). We'll probably have opportunities in the future to buy Amazon at a discount.\nRecap\nToday, it seems like Amazon is slightly overvalued, because it seems to offer about 5% annual returns over the next 5 years. That doesn't mean you should sell Amazon if you're a long time holder, because Amazon should continue to do well as a leader in E-commerce and cloud computing.\nBut if you're looking for your next stock to invest in, Amazon seems to be too expensive right now. And if you've been eyeing Amazon for a while and you're looking to get in, now's not the best time to get into Amazon.\nEven if we don't invest in the stock, we can still watch Amazon as they become the company with the most revenue in the world. And there's a lot we can learn from studying Amazon and Jeff Bezos. He's a smart dude.\nThank you very much for reading, and I hope that you have a great rest of your day.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108728106,"gmtCreate":1620056131705,"gmtModify":1634208163829,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ihf","listText":"Ihf","text":"Ihf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108728106","repostId":"2132597776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800429766,"gmtCreate":1627313259855,"gmtModify":1633766203965,"author":{"id":"3579491276699992","authorId":"3579491276699992","name":"Jlenglui","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbf978ba7471629b0f6a72b1497fce4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579491276699992","idStr":"3579491276699992"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I","listText":"I","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800429766","repostId":"1126483906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126483906","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627312464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126483906?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes<blockquote>波音公司应对影响787飞机的新障碍，盈利方法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126483906","media":"Benzinga","summary":"It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like Boeing (NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.\nAfte","content":"<p>It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.</p><p><blockquote>听起来可能有点刺耳，但感觉<b>波音公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BA）就是走不出自己的路。</blockquote></p><p> After resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.</p><p><blockquote>在停飞近两年后，英航于2020年底在美国恢复了737-MAX航班，但其787飞机仍然存在问题。737-MAX的回归也并不完美，一些飞机出现了电气问题。</blockquote></p><p> All of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有助于解释英航股票令人失望的表现。截至7月中旬，2021年仅上涨2%，远远落后于标普500指数（SPX）16%的增长。它也落后于工业领域的同行，工业领域今年增长了近17%。</blockquote></p><p> Going into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候将公布财报，英航从第二季度开始有一些值得庆祝的事情，但也面临一些新的担忧。据路透社报道，英国航空最近表示，在发现与生产相关的结构缺陷后，将削减787“梦想飞机”的产量。此外，一大客户部分取消了一架737-MAX订单。这对这家美国飞机制造商的COVID-19大流行复苏来说是双重打击。</blockquote></p><p> The 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.</p><p><blockquote>787的问题显然归结于制造质量。媒体报道称，人们对飞机机身是否正确连接到必要的一英寸的微小部分以及该公司对该问题的验证过程是否充分存在疑问。</blockquote></p><p> This issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.</p><p><blockquote>英航表示，这个问题不会影响已经服役的飞机，因此不需要停飞。尽管如此，它还是推迟了一些新飞机的交付，并引发了人们对该公司基本制造工艺和检验能力的质疑。对于购买英航设备的航空公司来说，这可能有点令人不安。该公司有大约100架未交付的梦想飞机。4月份，该公司表示预计将在2021年交付其中大部分飞机。然而，英航现在表示，由于787的问题，它不会达到这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> To make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，BA 6月份有60份订单被取消，较5月份大幅增加。所有这些问题都围绕着英航准备在本周三公布第二季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权收益可以提供对旅游趋势的看法</blockquote></p><p> The company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的看涨期权可能是投资者重新组合的机会，并更多地了解新的787问题、它影响了多少架飞机以及解决这个问题可能需要多长时间。这也是一个很好的机会来了解英航对航空业复苏的看法，以及新一波Covid病例可能会对航空业造成多大的损害。</blockquote></p><p> BA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.</p><p><blockquote>英航正在摆脱连续六个季度的亏损，但直到最近，其高管还对2021年带来一些积极因素表示乐观。根据运输安全局（TSA）的数据，尽管处于德尔塔变异毒株，航空客运量仍在继续改善，每天通过机场检查站的人数经常达到200万。这仍然比2019年的数字每天低几十万，但同比有了巨大的改善。</blockquote></p><p> However, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call,&nbsp;<b>Delta</b>(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.</p><p><blockquote>然而，长途交通远未摆脱困境，损害了对英航制造的一些宽体飞机的需求。本月早些时候在其收益看涨期权中，<b>三角洲</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DAL）为商务旅行的回归带来了一些希望。这是另一个恢复缓慢的领域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b312d27469daa156236d67dd0b89e2b\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>FIGURE 1:</b>&nbsp;<b>LONG DESCENT</b>. Shares of&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform from TD&nbsp;Ameritrade.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>图1：</b> <b>长下坡</b>本公司之股份<b>波音公司</b>(BA烛台)的交易价格远低于2021年高点，并且已被<b>标普500指数</b>（SPX-紫线）今年迄今为止。数据来源：纽约证券交易所、标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®德美利证券的平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> At a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.</p><p><blockquote>在上月初的一次财务演示中，英航首席执行官戴夫·卡尔霍恩谈到英航有“三座大山需要攀登”。其中包括重新认证737-MAX、从Covid中恢复以及修复或恢复在中国的交付。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们必须有一个框架，让我们的政府能够重新团结起来，恢复选定领域的贸易，我认为就美国而言，鉴于美国的数量，波音和商业航空航天必须成为重中之重。与之相关的就业机会以及我们作为一个行业长期以来享有的全球领导地位，”卡尔霍恩说。“这是基于开展业务并努力继续在中国开展业务。因此，我们仍处于从这三座大山中恢复的不同阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> One thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.</p><p><blockquote>假设英航能够快速解决这一新的787挑战，有一件事可以让恢复变得更容易，那就是快速重新开放。卡尔霍恩上个月表示，该行业的复苏“相当强劲”，但现在随着新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的激增，这一点受到了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Quarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>季度因787担忧和Covid而中断</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.</p><p><blockquote>在787问题出现之前，你可能会说英航第二季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For instance, in late June,&nbsp;<b>United Airlines</b>(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.</p><p><blockquote>例如，6月下旬，<b>联合航空公司</b>（纳斯达克：UAL）宣布将购买200架737-MAX飞机，作为扩张计划的一部分。其中，150个是Max 10，是该家族中最大的。BA于6月完成了首次MAX 10试飞。</blockquote></p><p> The UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.</p><p><blockquote>在MAX发行两年后，UAL的收购对BA投资者来说是一个很好的信心打击。该订单使6月成为自2018年以来BA新订单数量最好的月份，此前两起坠机事件导致MAX停飞。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.</p><p><blockquote>波音表示，上个月交付了45架喷气式飞机。其中，33架是737 MAX喷气式飞机，2架是737的军用版本，10架是宽体喷气式飞机。但只有一架是土耳其航空公司的787。美国有线电视新闻网指出，其余大部分宽体飞机要么是货机，要么是军用飞机，这表明宽体市场的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Last time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.</p><p><blockquote>上次，英航高管继续对2021年的发展持谨慎乐观态度。他们表示，整体气候仍然“充满挑战”，国内航空交通的恢复速度快于国际航空交通。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>当时，英航表示，在商业交付的推动下，预计收入、盈利和运营现金将比2020年有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> “Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>BA首席财务官Gregory Smith在第一季度财报看涨期权上表示：“2020年至2021年的收入改善将主要受到737和787交付量增加的推动，因为我们计划减少库存并从生产线交付。”</blockquote></p><p> That guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.</p><p><blockquote>这一指导现在可能会受到质疑。展望第二季度盈利，考虑到新的挑战，投资者可能希望关注英航是否能够坚持其对2021年盈利和收入改善的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Last time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.</p><p><blockquote>上次，英航重申了将在2022年初将737 MAX的产量增加到每月31架的预测，并预计将在2023年底交付首架777X宽体喷气式飞机。即将发布的财报看涨期权为投资者提供了一个了解英航是否遵守这些时间表的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Reuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.</p><p><blockquote>路透社最近报道称，在中国局势明朗之前，英航不打算提高MAX产量。英航仍在等待中国监管机构批准恢复该飞机在中国的航班。</blockquote></p><p> Things seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.</p><p><blockquote>媒体报道称，本月早些时候，当中国监管机构表示愿意允许对该飞机进行飞行测试时，情况似乎有所改善。希望英航能够在看涨期权期间提供有关中方的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，分析师预计英航将在今年晚些时候恢复正盈利。本季度的普遍预期为每股0.02美元，第四季度攀升至0.57美元。但这在很大程度上取决于英航走出自己的路并顺利运营。目前，从该股最近的表现来看，投资者似乎不太确定英航能否做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Earnings And Options Activity</p><p><blockquote>波音盈利和期权活动</blockquote></p><p> BA is expected to report<b>&nbsp;adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share</b>, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates.&nbsp;<b>Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion</b>—up 51% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>BA预计将报告<b>调整后每股收益为-0.72美元</b>根据第三方分析师的一致预测，去年同期每股收益为-4.79美元。<b>收入预计为177.8亿美元</b>-比一年前增长51%。</blockquote></p><p> The options market has priced in a&nbsp;<b>3.3% stock move</b>&nbsp;in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the&nbsp;thinkorswim®&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>期权市场已经消化了<b>股票变动3.3%</b>根据做市商的动向，围绕即将发布的收益发布向任一方向™thinkorswim上的指示器®平台。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>从7月30日每周期权到期日来看，看跌活动已经分散，但部分集中在200点行使价。评级在230和240罢工中最为活跃。截至周一上午，隐含波动率处于第9百分位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes<blockquote>波音公司应对影响787飞机的新障碍，盈利方法</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Earnings Approach As Company Deals With New Snag Affecting 787 Planes<blockquote>波音公司应对影响787飞机的新障碍，盈利方法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-26 23:14</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.</p><p><blockquote>听起来可能有点刺耳，但感觉<b>波音公司</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BA）就是走不出自己的路。</blockquote></p><p> After resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.</p><p><blockquote>在停飞近两年后，英航于2020年底在美国恢复了737-MAX航班，但其787飞机仍然存在问题。737-MAX的回归也并不完美，一些飞机出现了电气问题。</blockquote></p><p> All of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有助于解释英航股票令人失望的表现。截至7月中旬，2021年仅上涨2%，远远落后于标普500指数（SPX）16%的增长。它也落后于工业领域的同行，工业领域今年增长了近17%。</blockquote></p><p> Going into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>本周晚些时候将公布财报，英航从第二季度开始有一些值得庆祝的事情，但也面临一些新的担忧。据路透社报道，英国航空最近表示，在发现与生产相关的结构缺陷后，将削减787“梦想飞机”的产量。此外，一大客户部分取消了一架737-MAX订单。这对这家美国飞机制造商的COVID-19大流行复苏来说是双重打击。</blockquote></p><p> The 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.</p><p><blockquote>787的问题显然归结于制造质量。媒体报道称，人们对飞机机身是否正确连接到必要的一英寸的微小部分以及该公司对该问题的验证过程是否充分存在疑问。</blockquote></p><p> This issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.</p><p><blockquote>英航表示，这个问题不会影响已经服役的飞机，因此不需要停飞。尽管如此，它还是推迟了一些新飞机的交付，并引发了人们对该公司基本制造工艺和检验能力的质疑。对于购买英航设备的航空公司来说，这可能有点令人不安。该公司有大约100架未交付的梦想飞机。4月份，该公司表示预计将在2021年交付其中大部分飞机。然而，英航现在表示，由于787的问题，它不会达到这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> To make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，BA 6月份有60份订单被取消，较5月份大幅增加。所有这些问题都围绕着英航准备在本周三公布第二季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权收益可以提供对旅游趋势的看法</blockquote></p><p> The company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的看涨期权可能是投资者重新组合的机会，并更多地了解新的787问题、它影响了多少架飞机以及解决这个问题可能需要多长时间。这也是一个很好的机会来了解英航对航空业复苏的看法，以及新一波Covid病例可能会对航空业造成多大的损害。</blockquote></p><p> BA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.</p><p><blockquote>英航正在摆脱连续六个季度的亏损，但直到最近，其高管还对2021年带来一些积极因素表示乐观。根据运输安全局（TSA）的数据，尽管处于德尔塔变异毒株，航空客运量仍在继续改善，每天通过机场检查站的人数经常达到200万。这仍然比2019年的数字每天低几十万，但同比有了巨大的改善。</blockquote></p><p> However, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call,&nbsp;<b>Delta</b>(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.</p><p><blockquote>然而，长途交通远未摆脱困境，损害了对英航制造的一些宽体飞机的需求。本月早些时候在其收益看涨期权中，<b>三角洲</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DAL）为商务旅行的回归带来了一些希望。这是另一个恢复缓慢的领域。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b312d27469daa156236d67dd0b89e2b\" tg-width=\"1400\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>FIGURE 1:</b>&nbsp;<b>LONG DESCENT</b>. Shares of&nbsp;<b>Boeing</b>&nbsp;(BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500 Index</b>&nbsp;(SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The&nbsp;thinkorswim® platform from TD&nbsp;Ameritrade.&nbsp;<i>For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.</i></p><p><blockquote><b>图1：</b> <b>长下坡</b>本公司之股份<b>波音公司</b>(BA烛台)的交易价格远低于2021年高点，并且已被<b>标普500指数</b>（SPX-紫线）今年迄今为止。数据来源：纽约证券交易所、标准普尔道琼斯指数。图表来源：thinkorswim®德美利证券的平台。<i>仅用于说明目的。过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果。</i></blockquote></p><p> At a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.</p><p><blockquote>在上月初的一次财务演示中，英航首席执行官戴夫·卡尔霍恩谈到英航有“三座大山需要攀登”。其中包括重新认证737-MAX、从Covid中恢复以及修复或恢复在中国的交付。</blockquote></p><p> “We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们必须有一个框架，让我们的政府能够重新团结起来，恢复选定领域的贸易，我认为就美国而言，鉴于美国的数量，波音和商业航空航天必须成为重中之重。与之相关的就业机会以及我们作为一个行业长期以来享有的全球领导地位，”卡尔霍恩说。“这是基于开展业务并努力继续在中国开展业务。因此，我们仍处于从这三座大山中恢复的不同阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> One thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.</p><p><blockquote>假设英航能够快速解决这一新的787挑战，有一件事可以让恢复变得更容易，那就是快速重新开放。卡尔霍恩上个月表示，该行业的复苏“相当强劲”，但现在随着新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株的激增，这一点受到了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Quarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>季度因787担忧和Covid而中断</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.</p><p><blockquote>在787问题出现之前，你可能会说英航第二季度的表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For instance, in late June,&nbsp;<b>United Airlines</b>(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.</p><p><blockquote>例如，6月下旬，<b>联合航空公司</b>（纳斯达克：UAL）宣布将购买200架737-MAX飞机，作为扩张计划的一部分。其中，150个是Max 10，是该家族中最大的。BA于6月完成了首次MAX 10试飞。</blockquote></p><p> The UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.</p><p><blockquote>在MAX发行两年后，UAL的收购对BA投资者来说是一个很好的信心打击。该订单使6月成为自2018年以来BA新订单数量最好的月份，此前两起坠机事件导致MAX停飞。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.</p><p><blockquote>波音表示，上个月交付了45架喷气式飞机。其中，33架是737 MAX喷气式飞机，2架是737的军用版本，10架是宽体喷气式飞机。但只有一架是土耳其航空公司的787。美国有线电视新闻网指出，其余大部分宽体飞机要么是货机，要么是军用飞机，这表明宽体市场的疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Last time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.</p><p><blockquote>上次，英航高管继续对2021年的发展持谨慎乐观态度。他们表示，整体气候仍然“充满挑战”，国内航空交通的恢复速度快于国际航空交通。</blockquote></p><p> At the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>当时，英航表示，在商业交付的推动下，预计收入、盈利和运营现金将比2020年有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> “Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>BA首席财务官Gregory Smith在第一季度财报看涨期权上表示：“2020年至2021年的收入改善将主要受到737和787交付量增加的推动，因为我们计划减少库存并从生产线交付。”</blockquote></p><p> That guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.</p><p><blockquote>这一指导现在可能会受到质疑。展望第二季度盈利，考虑到新的挑战，投资者可能希望关注英航是否能够坚持其对2021年盈利和收入改善的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Last time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.</p><p><blockquote>上次，英航重申了将在2022年初将737 MAX的产量增加到每月31架的预测，并预计将在2023年底交付首架777X宽体喷气式飞机。即将发布的财报看涨期权为投资者提供了一个了解英航是否遵守这些时间表的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Reuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.</p><p><blockquote>路透社最近报道称，在中国局势明朗之前，英航不打算提高MAX产量。英航仍在等待中国监管机构批准恢复该飞机在中国的航班。</blockquote></p><p> Things seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.</p><p><blockquote>媒体报道称，本月早些时候，当中国监管机构表示愿意允许对该飞机进行飞行测试时，情况似乎有所改善。希望英航能够在看涨期权期间提供有关中方的最新情况。</blockquote></p><p> Looking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，分析师预计英航将在今年晚些时候恢复正盈利。本季度的普遍预期为每股0.02美元，第四季度攀升至0.57美元。但这在很大程度上取决于英航走出自己的路并顺利运营。目前，从该股最近的表现来看，投资者似乎不太确定英航能否做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Earnings And Options Activity</p><p><blockquote>波音盈利和期权活动</blockquote></p><p> BA is expected to report<b>&nbsp;adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share</b>, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates.&nbsp;<b>Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion</b>—up 51% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>BA预计将报告<b>调整后每股收益为-0.72美元</b>根据第三方分析师的一致预测，去年同期每股收益为-4.79美元。<b>收入预计为177.8亿美元</b>-比一年前增长51%。</blockquote></p><p> The options market has priced in a&nbsp;<b>3.3% stock move</b>&nbsp;in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the&nbsp;thinkorswim®&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>期权市场已经消化了<b>股票变动3.3%</b>根据做市商的动向，围绕即将发布的收益发布向任一方向™thinkorswim上的指示器®平台。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.</p><p><blockquote>从7月30日每周期权到期日来看，看跌活动已经分散，但部分集中在200点行使价。评级在230和240罢工中最为活跃。截至周一上午，隐含波动率处于第9百分位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126483906","content_text":"It may sound a bit harsh, but it feels like Boeing (NYSE:BA) just can’t get out of its own way.\nAfter resuming 737-MAX flights in the U.S. in late 2020 following a nearly two-year grounding, BA continues to have issues with its 787 planes. The 737-MAX return wasn’t perfect, either, with electrical issues cropping up on some planes.\nAll of this could help explain the disappointing performance of BA’s stock. As of mid-July, it was up just 2% in 2021, well behind the 16% growth of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). It’s also lagged counterparts in the Industrial sector, which is up nearly 17% this year.\nGoing into earnings later this week, BA has some things to celebrate from Q2 but also faces some new concerns. Most recently, BA said it will cut 787 “Dreamliner” production after finding a production-related structural defect, Reuters reported. In addition, a major customer partially canceled a 737-MAX order. It was a double whammy to the U.S. plane maker’s COVID-19 pandemic recovery.\nThe 787’s problem apparently comes down to manufacturing quality. There are questions about whether the planes’ fuselage is properly joined together down to the tiny fractions of an inch necessary, and whether the company’s verification process of that issue was adequate, media reports said.\nThis issue doesn’t affect planes already in service, so no grounding is required, BA said. Still, it’s holding up deliveries of some new planes and raises questions about the company’s basic manufacturing process and inspection abilities. That could be a bit unsettling for airlines buying BA equipment. The company has about 100 undelivered Dreamliners. In April it said it expected to deliver a majority of those jets during 2021. However, BA now says it won’t hit that target because of the 787’s problems.\nTo make things worse, BA suffered 60 order cancellations in June, up sharply from May. All of these issues swirl around as BA prepares to report its Q2 results this Wednesday.\nEarnings Call Could Offer View On Travel Trends\nThe company’s call could be a chance for investors to regroup and get some additional insight into the new 787 issue, how many planes it affects, and how long this might take to resolve. It’s also a good opportunity to get BA’s view on the airline industry’s recovery and how much it might be hurt by this new wave of Covid cases.\nBA is coming off of six consecutive quarterly losses, but until recently its executives had expressed optimism about 2021 bringing some positives. Passenger airline traffic continues to improve despite the Delta variant, with the number of people going through airport checkpoints often reaching two million a day, according to the Transportation Safety Agency (TSA). That’s still several hundred thousand a day below the 2019 numbers, but a huge year-over-year improvement.\nHowever, long-haul traffic is far from being out of the woods, hurting demand for some of the widebody craft that BA builds. Earlier this month in its earnings call, Delta(NYSE:DAL) offered some hope for business travel coming back. That’s another area that’s been slow to recover.\n\nFIGURE 1: LONG DESCENT. Shares of Boeing (BA—candlestick) are trading way below their 2021 high and have been outpaced by the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line) so far this year. Data source: NYSE, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.\nAt a financial presentation early last month, BA’s CEO Dave Calhoun talked about BA having “three mountains to climb.” They included recertifying the 737-MAX, recovering from Covid, and repairing or restoring deliveries in China.\n“We have to have a framework where our governments want to get back together, restore trade in selected areas, and I think in the case of the United States, Boeing and commercial aerospace has to be a high priority in light of the number of US jobs that are attached to it and the global leadership position that we’ve enjoyed as an industry for so long,” Calhoun said. “That’s predicated on doing business and trying to continue to do business in China. So those three mountains we’re still at different stages of recovering from.”\nOne thing that could make recovery easier, assuming BA can quickly resolve this new 787 challenge, is the quick pace of reopening. Calhoun last month said the industry’s recovery has been “pretty robust,” but now that’s being called into question as the Delta variant of Covid surges.\nQuarter Interrupted By 787 Concern, Covid\nBefore the 787 issue arose, you could argue BA was having a pretty decent Q2.\nFor instance, in late June, United Airlines(NASDAQ:UAL) announced it was buying 200 737-MAX planes as part of an expansion plan. Of those, 150 are Max 10’s, the largest in the family. BA completed its first MAX 10 test flight in June.\nThe UAL purchase was a nice shot of confidence for BA investors after two years of MAX issues. And the order made June the best month for new BA orders since 2018, before two crashes grounded the MAX.\nBoeing said it delivered 45 jets last month. Of those, 33 were 737 MAX jets, two were military versions of the 737 and 10 were widebody jets. But only one was a 787, to Turkish Airlines. Most of the rest of the widebodies were either freighter aircraft or military jets, an indication of the weakness in the widebody part of the market, CNN noted.\nLast time out, BA’s executives continued to sound cautiously optimistic about what 2021 would bring. They said the overall climate remains “challenging” and that domestic air traffic was recovering more quickly than international.\nAt the time, BA said it expected revenue, earnings, and operating cash to improve from 2020, driven by commercial deliveries.\n“Revenue improvement from 2020 to 2021 will be driven mainly by higher 737 and 787 deliveries as we plan to unwind inventory and deliver from the production lines,” said Gregory Smith, BA’s chief financial officer, on the Q1 earnings call.\nThat guidance now could be called into question. Looking ahead to Q2 earnings, investors might want to focus on whether BA can stick to its forecast for improved 2021 earnings and revenue considering its new challenges.\nLast time out, BA reiterated its forecast to increase production of the 737 MAX to 31 per month in early 2022 and its estimate to deliver its first 777X wide-body jet in late 2023. This coming earnings call offers investors a chance to see if BA is sticking to those timetables.\nReuters reported recently that BA doesn’t intend to raise MAX production until the China situation is clear. BA still awaits Chinese regulatory approval to resume flights of the plane in China.\nThings seemed to improve a bit earlier this month when Chinese regulators expressed willingness to allow flight tests of the aircraft, media reports said. Hopefully, BA can provide an update on China during its call.\nLooking further out, analysts expect BA to return to positive earnings by later this year. Consensus for the current quarter is at $0.02 a share, climbing to $0.57 in Q4. But a lot of this depends on BA getting out of its own way and operating smoothly. For now, investors don’t seem too sure BA can do that, judging from the stock’s recent performance.\nBoeing Earnings And Options Activity\nBA is expected to report adjusted EPS of $-0.72 per share, vs. earnings of $-4.79 per share in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Revenue is projected at $17.78 billion—up 51% from a year ago.\nThe options market has priced in a 3.3% stock move in either direction around the upcoming earnings release according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the thinkorswim® platform.\nLooking at the July 30 weekly options expiration, put activity has been spread out, but with some concentration at the 200 strike. Calls have been most active at the 230 and 240 strikes. Implied volatility is in the 9th percentile as of Monday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}