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2021-09-07

Ok

Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>

2021-09-05

Ok

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2021-08-27

Earnings soon!

2021-08-27

Ok

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2021-08-26

Ok

HP, Apple top U.S. PC shipments according to new report<blockquote>根据新报告，惠普和苹果在美国个人电脑出货量中名列前茅</blockquote>

2021-08-23

Comment

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2021-08-23

Comment

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2021-08-23

Comment

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2021-08-23

Comment

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2021-08-22

Ok

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-20

Amazon!

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2021-08-19

Comment

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2021-08-18

Yes! Solid fundamentals!

Is Walmart Going To Move Even Higher?<blockquote>沃尔玛会走得更高吗？</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Very volatile

Crypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote>

2021-08-16

Comment

These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>

2021-08-15

Palantir!!!

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2021-08-15

Comment

Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-08-14

Too early to judge?

What's Going On With Airbnb's Stock Today?<blockquote>今天Airbnb的股票怎么样？</blockquote>

2021-08-14

Good things ahead!

2021-08-13

Buy and hold!

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But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like","content":"<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158349328","content_text":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.\nSince 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.\nOver that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.\nA similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.\nThis Week \nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reportsthe producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814154950,"gmtCreate":1630800408470,"gmtModify":1632905889767,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814154950","repostId":"1189766406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810761700,"gmtCreate":1630017140600,"gmtModify":1704954517380,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Earnings soon!","listText":"Earnings soon!","text":"Earnings soon!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d73eef56ed1a7326e186da18e6f404a","width":"1125","height":"3800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810761700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810763354,"gmtCreate":1630016909578,"gmtModify":1704954515115,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810763354","repostId":"1158216410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837754394,"gmtCreate":1629931318819,"gmtModify":1633681466811,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837754394","repostId":"1114237972","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114237972","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629903902,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114237972?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"HP, Apple top U.S. PC shipments according to new report<blockquote>根据新报告，惠普和苹果在美国个人电脑出货量中名列前茅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114237972","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Personal computer shipments in the United States remained on the rise during the second quarter of the year as a market driven by Covid-19 related sales is seen as likely to continue for the foreseeable future.That's the opinion of tech research firm Canalys, which on Wednesday released its latest statistics on U.S. PC sales. According to Canalys, domestic PC shipments reached 36.8 million units between April and June, a 17% rise from the same period a year ago. Canalys analyst Brian Lynch said ","content":"<p>Personal computer shipments in the United States remained on the rise during the second quarter of the year as a market driven by Covid-19 related sales is seen as likely to continue for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，美国的个人电脑出货量继续上升，因为由新冠肺炎相关销售推动的市场在可预见的未来可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> That's the opinion of tech research firm Canalys, which on Wednesday released its latest statistics on U.S. PC sales.&nbsp;According to Canalys, domestic PC shipments reached 36.8 million units&nbsp;between April and June, a 17% rise from the same period a year ago. Canalys analyst Brian Lynch said that the data suggest there is \"a significant refresh opportunity\" exists for the leading PC manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这是科技研究公司 Canalys 的观点，该公司周三发布了美国个人电脑销售的最新统计数据。根据 Canalys 的数据，4 月至 6 月间，国内个人电脑出货量达到 3680 万台，比去年同期增长 17%。Canalys 分析师 Brian Lynch 表示，数据表明领先的 PC 制造商存在“重大更新机会”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The commercial and education segments have exploded, triggering tremendous refresh potential,\" Lynch said. \"The U.S. economy has bounced back well from its pandemic woes and small businesses are recovering, which will lead to a wave of purchasing from the segment.\"</p><p><blockquote>“商业和教育领域已经爆炸式增长，引发了巨大的更新潜力，”林奇说。“美国经济已从大流行困境中良好反弹，小企业正在复苏，这将引发该领域的采购浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p> Notebook PC shipments led the sector's gains, rising 27% from a year ago, while desktop shipments rose by 23% over last year's second quarter. Canalys said tablet shipments were virtually stagnant, rising just 1% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>笔记本电脑出货量领涨该行业，较去年同期增长 27%，而台式机出货量较去年第二季度增长 23%。Canalys 表示，平板电脑出货量几乎停滞不前，仅比一年前增长 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP Inc</a> (NYSE:HPQ)took the top spot in the U.S., with 8.07 million shipments, and a 20.2% increase over the second quarter of 2020. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (NASDAQ:AAPL), however, fell from its No. 1 position a year ago, as its 7.6 million Mac shipments dipped by almost 3% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普公司</a>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）以807万件的出货量位居美国榜首，比2020年第二季度增长20.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>然而，（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）从一年前的第一位置跌落，其 760 万台 Mac 出货量比一年前下降了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE:DELL)came in third place, as its shipments grew by 10.5%, to 5.7 million shipments, while Lenovo took fourth place with 4.75 million shipments, a 25.2% gain over last-year's second quarter. Samsung rounded out the top five PC companies, as its 3.04 million shipments surged by more than 51% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔技术公司。</a>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：戴尔）排名第三，出货量增长 10.5%，达到 570 万台，而联想排名第四，出货量为 475 万台，比去年第二季度增长 25.2%。三星跻身前五名个人电脑公司之列，其 304 万台出货量比一年前激增 51% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Canalys' U.S. data came a day after IDC said it believes worldwide PC sales to grow this year,&nbsp;but at a slower rate than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>Canalys 公布美国数据的前一天，IDC 表示相信今年全球个人电脑销量将增长，但增速低于此前预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>HP, Apple top U.S. PC shipments according to new report<blockquote>根据新报告，惠普和苹果在美国个人电脑出货量中名列前茅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHP, Apple top U.S. PC shipments according to new report<blockquote>根据新报告，惠普和苹果在美国个人电脑出货量中名列前茅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-25 23:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Personal computer shipments in the United States remained on the rise during the second quarter of the year as a market driven by Covid-19 related sales is seen as likely to continue for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，美国的个人电脑出货量继续上升，因为由新冠肺炎相关销售推动的市场在可预见的未来可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> That's the opinion of tech research firm Canalys, which on Wednesday released its latest statistics on U.S. PC sales.&nbsp;According to Canalys, domestic PC shipments reached 36.8 million units&nbsp;between April and June, a 17% rise from the same period a year ago. Canalys analyst Brian Lynch said that the data suggest there is \"a significant refresh opportunity\" exists for the leading PC manufacturers.</p><p><blockquote>这是科技研究公司 Canalys 的观点，该公司周三发布了美国个人电脑销售的最新统计数据。根据 Canalys 的数据，4 月至 6 月间，国内个人电脑出货量达到 3680 万台，比去年同期增长 17%。Canalys 分析师 Brian Lynch 表示，数据表明领先的 PC 制造商存在“重大更新机会”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The commercial and education segments have exploded, triggering tremendous refresh potential,\" Lynch said. \"The U.S. economy has bounced back well from its pandemic woes and small businesses are recovering, which will lead to a wave of purchasing from the segment.\"</p><p><blockquote>“商业和教育领域已经爆炸式增长，引发了巨大的更新潜力，”林奇说。“美国经济已从大流行困境中良好反弹，小企业正在复苏，这将引发该领域的采购浪潮。”</blockquote></p><p> Notebook PC shipments led the sector's gains, rising 27% from a year ago, while desktop shipments rose by 23% over last year's second quarter. Canalys said tablet shipments were virtually stagnant, rising just 1% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>笔记本电脑出货量领涨该行业，较去年同期增长 27%，而台式机出货量较去年第二季度增长 23%。Canalys 表示，平板电脑出货量几乎停滞不前，仅比一年前增长 1%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">HP Inc</a> (NYSE:HPQ)took the top spot in the U.S., with 8.07 million shipments, and a 20.2% increase over the second quarter of 2020. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> (NASDAQ:AAPL), however, fell from its No. 1 position a year ago, as its 7.6 million Mac shipments dipped by almost 3% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普公司</a>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）以807万件的出货量位居美国榜首，比2020年第二季度增长20.2%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>然而，（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）从一年前的第一位置跌落，其 760 万台 Mac 出货量比一年前下降了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies Inc.</a> (NYSE:DELL)came in third place, as its shipments grew by 10.5%, to 5.7 million shipments, while Lenovo took fourth place with 4.75 million shipments, a 25.2% gain over last-year's second quarter. Samsung rounded out the top five PC companies, as its 3.04 million shipments surged by more than 51% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔技术公司。</a>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：戴尔）排名第三，出货量增长 10.5%，达到 570 万台，而联想排名第四，出货量为 475 万台，比去年第二季度增长 25.2%。三星跻身前五名个人电脑公司之列，其 304 万台出货量比一年前激增 51% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Canalys' U.S. data came a day after IDC said it believes worldwide PC sales to grow this year,&nbsp;but at a slower rate than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>Canalys 公布美国数据的前一天，IDC 表示相信今年全球个人电脑销量将增长，但增速低于此前预期。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3734052-hp-apple-top-us-pc-shipments-according-to-new-report\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DELL":"戴尔","HPQ":"惠普","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3734052-hp-apple-top-us-pc-shipments-according-to-new-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114237972","content_text":"Personal computer shipments in the United States remained on the rise during the second quarter of the year as a market driven by Covid-19 related sales is seen as likely to continue for the foreseeable future.\nThat's the opinion of tech research firm Canalys, which on Wednesday released its latest statistics on U.S. PC sales. According to Canalys, domestic PC shipments reached 36.8 million units between April and June, a 17% rise from the same period a year ago. Canalys analyst Brian Lynch said that the data suggest there is \"a significant refresh opportunity\" exists for the leading PC manufacturers.\n\"The commercial and education segments have exploded, triggering tremendous refresh potential,\" Lynch said. \"The U.S. economy has bounced back well from its pandemic woes and small businesses are recovering, which will lead to a wave of purchasing from the segment.\"\nNotebook PC shipments led the sector's gains, rising 27% from a year ago, while desktop shipments rose by 23% over last year's second quarter. Canalys said tablet shipments were virtually stagnant, rising just 1% from a year ago.\nHP Inc (NYSE:HPQ)took the top spot in the U.S., with 8.07 million shipments, and a 20.2% increase over the second quarter of 2020. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), however, fell from its No. 1 position a year ago, as its 7.6 million Mac shipments dipped by almost 3% from a year ago.\nDell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL)came in third place, as its shipments grew by 10.5%, to 5.7 million shipments, while Lenovo took fourth place with 4.75 million shipments, a 25.2% gain over last-year's second quarter. Samsung rounded out the top five PC companies, as its 3.04 million shipments surged by more than 51% from a year ago.\nCanalys' U.S. data came a day after IDC said it believes worldwide PC sales to grow this year, but at a slower rate than previously expected.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"HPQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832436534,"gmtCreate":1629674395428,"gmtModify":1633683489530,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832436534","repostId":"1128033677","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832431699,"gmtCreate":1629674321311,"gmtModify":1633683491818,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832431699","repostId":"2161743804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832433536,"gmtCreate":1629674301025,"gmtModify":1633683492626,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832433536","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832439790,"gmtCreate":1629674288910,"gmtModify":1633683493420,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832439790","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832314190,"gmtCreate":1629591099510,"gmtModify":1633683963491,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832314190","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","SNPS":"新思科技","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","GOOG":"谷歌","TSM":"台积电","ASML":"阿斯麦","AMZN":"亚马逊","SSNLF":"三星电子","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"ON":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838580395,"gmtCreate":1629419076017,"gmtModify":1633685020906,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon!","listText":"Amazon!","text":"Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838580395","repostId":"2160670097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838019274,"gmtCreate":1629357642198,"gmtModify":1633685439812,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838019274","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833216140,"gmtCreate":1629244884080,"gmtModify":1633686329661,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes! Solid fundamentals!","listText":"Yes! Solid fundamentals!","text":"Yes! Solid fundamentals!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833216140","repostId":"1149540693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149540693","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629212926,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149540693?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Walmart Going To Move Even Higher?<blockquote>沃尔玛会走得更高吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149540693","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"After consolidating over the past week, there's a good chance that shares of Wal-Mart Inc. are setti","content":"<p>After consolidating over the past week, there's a good chance that shares of<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Wal-Mart</a> </b><b>Inc.</b>&nbsp;are setting up to resume their uptrend. Resistance has become support and that’s typically bullish for a stock. It happens because of the&nbsp;seller's remorse.</p><p><blockquote>经过过去一周的盘整，股价很有可能上涨<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a></b><b>公司。</b>正在准备恢复上升趋势。阻力变成了支撑，这对股票来说通常是看涨的。这是因为卖家的悔恨。</blockquote></p><p> Before today's open, Walmart reported second-quarter sales growth of 2.4% year-on-year, to $141 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $136.88 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在今天开盘前，沃尔玛公布第二季度销售额同比增长2.4%，达到1410亿美元，超过分析师普遍预期的1368.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In January, Walmart crashed into a wall of sellers around the $149 level. They put an end to the rally and drove the stock lower. Many of these sellers thought they made a good decision.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，沃尔玛在 149 美元附近撞上了卖家墙。他们结束了涨势，并压低了股价。这些卖家中的许多人认为他们做出了一个正确的决定。</blockquote></p><p> But on Aug. 11, shares broke through this level and traded higher. Now many of these investors think they made a mistake. A number of them decide to buy their shares back, but they will only do so if they can get them for the same price they sold at.</p><p><blockquote>但8月11日，股价突破了这一水平并走高。现在这些投资者中的许多人认为他们犯了一个错误。他们中的许多人决定回购股票，但只有当他们能以相同的价格买到股票时，他们才会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> These remorseful sellers place their buy orders at $149. If there are enough of them, it will create support. This has happened here and it could set the stage for another move higher.</p><p><blockquote>这些悔恨的卖家以149美元的价格下了买单。如果有足够多的人，就会产生支持。这种情况已经发生在这里，它可能会为另一次走高奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97d03b3df493632f317757d028885b1\" tg-width=\"1607\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Walmart Going To Move Even Higher?<blockquote>沃尔玛会走得更高吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Walmart Going To Move Even Higher?<blockquote>沃尔玛会走得更高吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 23:08</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After consolidating over the past week, there's a good chance that shares of<b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">Wal-Mart</a> </b><b>Inc.</b>&nbsp;are setting up to resume their uptrend. Resistance has become support and that’s typically bullish for a stock. It happens because of the&nbsp;seller's remorse.</p><p><blockquote>经过过去一周的盘整，股价很有可能上涨<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a></b><b>公司。</b>正在准备恢复上升趋势。阻力变成了支撑，这对股票来说通常是看涨的。这是因为卖家的悔恨。</blockquote></p><p> Before today's open, Walmart reported second-quarter sales growth of 2.4% year-on-year, to $141 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $136.88 billion.</p><p><blockquote>在今天开盘前，沃尔玛公布第二季度销售额同比增长2.4%，达到1410亿美元，超过分析师普遍预期的1368.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In January, Walmart crashed into a wall of sellers around the $149 level. They put an end to the rally and drove the stock lower. Many of these sellers thought they made a good decision.</p><p><blockquote>一月份，沃尔玛在 149 美元附近撞上了卖家墙。他们结束了涨势，并压低了股价。这些卖家中的许多人认为他们做出了一个正确的决定。</blockquote></p><p> But on Aug. 11, shares broke through this level and traded higher. Now many of these investors think they made a mistake. A number of them decide to buy their shares back, but they will only do so if they can get them for the same price they sold at.</p><p><blockquote>但8月11日，股价突破了这一水平并走高。现在这些投资者中的许多人认为他们犯了一个错误。他们中的许多人决定回购股票，但只有当他们能以相同的价格买到股票时，他们才会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> These remorseful sellers place their buy orders at $149. If there are enough of them, it will create support. This has happened here and it could set the stage for another move higher.</p><p><blockquote>这些悔恨的卖家以149美元的价格下了买单。如果有足够多的人，就会产生支持。这种情况已经发生在这里，它可能会为另一次走高奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f97d03b3df493632f317757d028885b1\" tg-width=\"1607\" tg-height=\"814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149540693","content_text":"After consolidating over the past week, there's a good chance that shares of Wal-Mart Inc. are setting up to resume their uptrend. Resistance has become support and that’s typically bullish for a stock. It happens because of the seller's remorse.\nBefore today's open, Walmart reported second-quarter sales growth of 2.4% year-on-year, to $141 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $136.88 billion.\nIn January, Walmart crashed into a wall of sellers around the $149 level. They put an end to the rally and drove the stock lower. Many of these sellers thought they made a good decision.\nBut on Aug. 11, shares broke through this level and traded higher. Now many of these investors think they made a mistake. A number of them decide to buy their shares back, but they will only do so if they can get them for the same price they sold at.\nThese remorseful sellers place their buy orders at $149. If there are enough of them, it will create support. This has happened here and it could set the stage for another move higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833213411,"gmtCreate":1629244757633,"gmtModify":1633686331813,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Very volatile","listText":"Very volatile","text":"Very volatile","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833213411","repostId":"2160978315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160978315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629243603,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2160978315?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160978315","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent ","content":"<p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里周二对新生的加密资产市场说了一些严厉的话。</blockquote></p><p> The central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.</p><p><blockquote>这位央行行长表示，他认为全球排名第一的加密货币比特币没有任何用例，并将更广泛的数字资产行业称为在很大程度上与欺诈和炒作有关的行业。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.</p><p><blockquote>“加密货币 95% 都是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱，”卡什卡里在蒙大拿州大天空举行的太平洋西北经济区域年度峰会上发表讲话时说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，CoinDesk 上的比特币价格为 44,993 美元，下跌 2.4%。与此同时，以太币区块链上的以太币易手至 3,069 美元，下跌 3%，而迷因币狗狗币的交易价格约为 30 美分，下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，加密货币在机构投资者中获得了吸引力，但与传统市场相比，仍被视为一种投机性和高风险的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里还提出了他对货币政策计划的一些看法，指出他仍然认为美国劳动力市场“非常宽松”，并表示他可能需要几份更强劲的就业报告，然后他才倾向于支持缩减央行每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联储主席发表上述言论之际，越来越多的人开始讨论，随着经济试图从疫情中复苏，何时撤回美联储新冠时代的宽松政策，并最终加息。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>周二，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数结束了五个交易日的连涨，一些人将当天的下跌至少部分归咎于对宽松货币政策倒退的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里表示，如果就业市场合作，在2021年底前开始减少债券购买是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份，美国创造了强劲的 943,000 个就业岗位，一些人认为这是经济复苏正在获得一些动力的迹象，尽管 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株最近发起了攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里周二对新生的加密资产市场说了一些严厉的话。</blockquote></p><p> The central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.</p><p><blockquote>这位央行行长表示，他认为全球排名第一的加密货币比特币没有任何用例，并将更广泛的数字资产行业称为在很大程度上与欺诈和炒作有关的行业。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.</p><p><blockquote>“加密货币 95% 都是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱，”卡什卡里在蒙大拿州大天空举行的太平洋西北经济区域年度峰会上发表讲话时说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，CoinDesk 上的比特币价格为 44,993 美元，下跌 2.4%。与此同时，以太币区块链上的以太币易手至 3,069 美元，下跌 3%，而迷因币狗狗币的交易价格约为 30 美分，下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，加密货币在机构投资者中获得了吸引力，但与传统市场相比，仍被视为一种投机性和高风险的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里还提出了他对货币政策计划的一些看法，指出他仍然认为美国劳动力市场“非常宽松”，并表示他可能需要几份更强劲的就业报告，然后他才倾向于支持缩减央行每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联储主席发表上述言论之际，越来越多的人开始讨论，随着经济试图从疫情中复苏，何时撤回美联储新冠时代的宽松政策，并最终加息。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>周二，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数结束了五个交易日的连涨，一些人将当天的下跌至少部分归咎于对宽松货币政策倒退的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里表示，如果就业市场合作，在2021年底前开始减少债券购买是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份，美国创造了强劲的 943,000 个就业岗位，一些人认为这是经济复苏正在获得一些动力的迹象，尽管 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株最近发起了攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-is-95-fraud-hype-noise-and-confusion-says-feds-neel-kashkari-11629236416?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-is-95-fraud-hype-noise-and-confusion-says-feds-neel-kashkari-11629236416?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160978315","content_text":"Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.\nThe central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.\n\"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.\nBitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.\nCrypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.\nKashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nThe Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.\nOn Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.\nFor his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.\nIn July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XBTmain":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830602589,"gmtCreate":1629068549341,"gmtModify":1633687745526,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830602589","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VAC":"万豪度假环球","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VAC":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"TREX":0.9,"SITE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897758876,"gmtCreate":1628989344995,"gmtModify":1633688186233,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Palantir!!!&nbsp;","listText":"Palantir!!!&nbsp;","text":"Palantir!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897758876","repostId":"2159211727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897727578,"gmtCreate":1628989049394,"gmtModify":1633688190180,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897727578","repostId":"1133270372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133270372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li>  <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li>  <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是该公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实显得非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li>  <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li>  <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是该公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实显得非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897375264,"gmtCreate":1628896613758,"gmtModify":1633688750215,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Too early to judge?","listText":"Too early to judge?","text":"Too early to judge?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897375264","repostId":"2159181002","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159181002","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628867853,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159181002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Going On With Airbnb's Stock Today?<blockquote>今天Airbnb的股票怎么样？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159181002","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ: ABNB) is trading lower Friday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results, but warned that it expects COVID-19 variants to continue to affect overall travel behavior.","content":"<p><b>Airbnb Inc</b> (NASDAQ:ABNB) is trading lower Friday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results, but warned that it expects COVID-19 variants to continue to affect overall travel behavior.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）周五股价走低，此前该公司公布了好于预期的第二季度财务业绩，但警告称，预计 COVID-19 变种将继续影响整体旅行行为。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb reported a quarterly earnings loss of 11 cents per share, which beat the estimate for a loss of 48 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.33 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.23 billion.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎公布季度每股收益亏损 11 美分，超出了每股亏损 48 美分的预期。该公司公布季度营收为 13.3 亿美元，超出预期的 12.3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb said it's&nbsp;well positioned for the continued travel recovery, however the company&nbsp;noted that it's anticipating&nbsp;COVID-19 variants&nbsp;to cause volatility in bookings.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎表示，它已为旅游业的持续复苏做好了充分准备，但该公司指出，预计 COVID-19 变种将导致预订量波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"In the near term, we anticipate that the impact of COVID-19 and the introduction and spread of new variants of the virus, including the Delta variant, will continue to affect overall travel behavior, including how often and when guests book and cancel,\" Airbnb said in a letter to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>“在短期内，我们预计 COVID-19 的影响以及包括德尔塔变异毒株在内的病毒新变种的引入和传播将继续影响整体旅行行为，包括客人预订和取消的频率和时间，”爱彼迎在致股东的信中说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyst Assessment:&nbsp;</b>Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with a Buy rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$194&nbsp;to&nbsp;$200.</p><p><blockquote><b>分析师评估：</b>Needham 分析师 Bernie McTernan 维持爱彼迎买入评级，并将目标价从 194 美元上调至 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p> JMP Securities analyst Ronald Josey maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with an Outperform rating and lowered&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$190&nbsp;to&nbsp;$180.</p><p><blockquote>JMP证券分析师Ronald Josey维持爱彼迎跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从190美元下调至180美元。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with a Neutral rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$164&nbsp;to&nbsp;$167.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju维持爱彼迎中性评级，并将目标价从164美元上调至167美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo analyst Brian Fitzgerald maintains Airbnb&nbsp;with an Overweight rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$200&nbsp;to&nbsp;$210.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行分析师 Brian Fitzgerald 维持 Airbnb 的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action: </b>Airbnb has traded as high as $219.94 and as low as $121.50 since its IPO in December.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>自去年 12 月 IPO 以来，爱彼迎的交易价格最高可达 219.94 美元，最低可达 121.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Going On With Airbnb's Stock Today?<blockquote>今天Airbnb的股票怎么样？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Going On With Airbnb's Stock Today?<blockquote>今天Airbnb的股票怎么样？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-13 23:17</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Airbnb Inc</b> (NASDAQ:ABNB) is trading lower Friday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results, but warned that it expects COVID-19 variants to continue to affect overall travel behavior.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎公司</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：ABNB）周五股价走低，此前该公司公布了好于预期的第二季度财务业绩，但警告称，预计 COVID-19 变种将继续影响整体旅行行为。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb reported a quarterly earnings loss of 11 cents per share, which beat the estimate for a loss of 48 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.33 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.23 billion.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎公布季度每股收益亏损 11 美分，超出了每股亏损 48 美分的预期。该公司公布季度营收为 13.3 亿美元，超出预期的 12.3 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Airbnb said it's&nbsp;well positioned for the continued travel recovery, however the company&nbsp;noted that it's anticipating&nbsp;COVID-19 variants&nbsp;to cause volatility in bookings.</p><p><blockquote>爱彼迎表示，它已为旅游业的持续复苏做好了充分准备，但该公司指出，预计 COVID-19 变种将导致预订量波动。</blockquote></p><p> \"In the near term, we anticipate that the impact of COVID-19 and the introduction and spread of new variants of the virus, including the Delta variant, will continue to affect overall travel behavior, including how often and when guests book and cancel,\" Airbnb said in a letter to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>“在短期内，我们预计 COVID-19 的影响以及包括德尔塔变异毒株在内的病毒新变种的引入和传播将继续影响整体旅行行为，包括客人预订和取消的频率和时间，”爱彼迎在致股东的信中说道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Analyst Assessment:&nbsp;</b>Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with a Buy rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$194&nbsp;to&nbsp;$200.</p><p><blockquote><b>分析师评估：</b>Needham 分析师 Bernie McTernan 维持爱彼迎买入评级，并将目标价从 194 美元上调至 200 美元。</blockquote></p><p> JMP Securities analyst Ronald Josey maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with an Outperform rating and lowered&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$190&nbsp;to&nbsp;$180.</p><p><blockquote>JMP证券分析师Ronald Josey维持爱彼迎跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从190美元下调至180美元。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju maintained&nbsp;Airbnb with a Neutral rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$164&nbsp;to&nbsp;$167.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷分析师Stephen Ju维持爱彼迎中性评级，并将目标价从164美元上调至167美元。</blockquote></p><p> Wells Fargo analyst Brian Fitzgerald maintains Airbnb&nbsp;with an Overweight rating and raised&nbsp;the price target from&nbsp;$200&nbsp;to&nbsp;$210.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行分析师 Brian Fitzgerald 维持 Airbnb 的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从 200 美元上调至 210 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action: </b>Airbnb has traded as high as $219.94 and as low as $121.50 since its IPO in December.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为：</b>自去年 12 月 IPO 以来，爱彼迎的交易价格最高可达 219.94 美元，最低可达 121.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ABNB":"爱彼迎"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159181002","content_text":"Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB) is trading lower Friday after the company reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results, but warned that it expects COVID-19 variants to continue to affect overall travel behavior.\nAirbnb reported a quarterly earnings loss of 11 cents per share, which beat the estimate for a loss of 48 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.33 billion, which beat the estimate of $1.23 billion.\nAirbnb said it's well positioned for the continued travel recovery, however the company noted that it's anticipating COVID-19 variants to cause volatility in bookings.\n\"In the near term, we anticipate that the impact of COVID-19 and the introduction and spread of new variants of the virus, including the Delta variant, will continue to affect overall travel behavior, including how often and when guests book and cancel,\" Airbnb said in a letter to shareholders.\nAnalyst Assessment: Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintained Airbnb with a Buy rating and raised the price target from $194 to $200.\nJMP Securities analyst Ronald Josey maintained Airbnb with an Outperform rating and lowered the price target from $190 to $180.\nCredit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju maintained Airbnb with a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $164 to $167.\nWells Fargo analyst Brian Fitzgerald maintains Airbnb with an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $200 to $210.\nPrice Action: Airbnb has traded as high as $219.94 and as low as $121.50 since its IPO in December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABNB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897372358,"gmtCreate":1628896534474,"gmtModify":1633688751520,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good things ahead!","listText":"Good things ahead!","text":"Good things ahead!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2d276fd7ba56bfa1058f3f21ae2c0c","width":"1125","height":"3974"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897372358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894354042,"gmtCreate":1628808348786,"gmtModify":1633689418792,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605184200794","authorIdStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy and hold!","listText":"Buy and hold!","text":"Buy and hold!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894354042","repostId":"2158189268","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":894354042,"gmtCreate":1628808348786,"gmtModify":1633689418792,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy and hold!","listText":"Buy and hold!","text":"Buy and hold!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894354042","repostId":"2158189268","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897727578,"gmtCreate":1628989049394,"gmtModify":1633688190180,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897727578","repostId":"1133270372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133270372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li>  <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li>  <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是该公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实显得非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li>  <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li>  <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃于一个有吸引力的行业，拥有巨大的增长动力。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户，在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股票的定价取决于未来的增长，投资者在以当前估值部署资金之前应该考虑实际的每股回报率。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Focusion/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司 (PLUG) 活跃于高增长行业，只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好，这就会转化为强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而，该公司尚未盈利，实现有意义的净利润之路仍存在一些不确定性。从长远来看，我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正净利润，尽管该公司的股票目前估值相对较高。不过，从风险回报的角度来看，可能会有更好的选择，尽管我相信 2031 年股票交易将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司的股价在过去一年里剧烈上下波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比 12 个月前上涨了 130%，但与此同时，今天的股价仅为历史高点的三分之一。2021年初，当其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票（包括电动汽车）受益于投资者的巨大热情时，股价爆炸式上涨。此后，热情似乎已经冷却，股价已回到20美元左右。按当前价格计算，普拉格能源公司的估值为 160 亿美元，按稀释后略低于 6 亿股计算。分析师目前相当看好该股，因为 41 美元的一致目标价意味着明年全年较当前价格上涨约 50%。但需要注意的是，分析师一致的目标价近几个月来有所下调，未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润，PLUG 无法根据盈利进行估值，但股票交易价格约为今年收入的 30 倍，这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃于一个绝对增长的行业，因为氢燃料电池在未来几年将出现巨大的需求增长，因为它们提供了其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙提供商，完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括 Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) 在内的全球合作伙伴网络，普拉格能源正在致力于在全球发展绿色氢产业：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：普拉格能源介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力，同时该公司还提供兆瓦级柴油发电机的环保替代品，可供公用事业公司使用。除此之外，该公司还在开展其他尚未准备好商业化的项目，例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。到 2024 年（即三年后），普拉格能源将在美国运营至少 5 座氢工厂，美国和欧洲等海外市场还有更多项目正在筹备中。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>Plug Power 80%的客户是评级公司的蓝筹股客户，其中包括亚马逊（AMZN）等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹，以获得更好的ESG评级，同时，这些公司是低风险客户，因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言，普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作，他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格销售其产品，这就是为什么该公司能够在最近几个季度产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率 30 多岁。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于该公司的规模仍然相对较小，普拉格能源在净额基础上或在经营基础上都没有盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入，该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而，随着时间的推移，这种情况应该会发生变化，因为运营杠杆和提高产品利润率应该会使普拉格能源相对于运营费用增加毛利润，这将提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测 2024 财年（即三年后）净利润为正。当然，如果普拉格能源已经达到这一点，那就更好了，但对于长期导向的投资者来说，再两年的负利润不会是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>投资普拉格能源这样的公司时，近期并不太重要，但更重要的是该公司增加收入和利润的长期潜力。通过 ESG 顺风、巨大的市场增长及其市场领先地位的结合，普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位，可以在未来许多年内增加收入：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测，未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长，而至少到2030年，增长率预计将保持在近30%，这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然，不能保证这种情况真的会发生，因为商业模式仍然存在一些风险。该公司尚未盈利，因此理论上未来增长项目的资金可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是，其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我认为，由于 Plug Power 的领导地位，这样做的风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈，如果非盈利的普拉格能源陷入市场份额争夺战，可能会给利润率带来压力，那么它可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，一些执行风险确实仍然存在，投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对正确的清晰预测。然而，相反，上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子，实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言，可以说 Plug Power 业务的长期前景非常好，因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视减少碳足迹，该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而，一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如，那些在互联网泡沫期间在高点购买思科 (CSCO) 股票的人，尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大的增长，但 22 年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑在内，而且今天的普拉格能源远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030 年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今，普拉格能源的交易价格约为今年预期收入的 32 倍。如果这是一个市盈率，相对于公司的平均估值，这只股票仍然不会特别便宜。销售额超过 30 倍，股票确实显得非常昂贵。当我们考虑 PLUG 未来十年的增长前景时，这在某种程度上是相对的，但我相信股价仍然高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对 2030 年收入的一致估计是正确的，即 105 亿美元，那么目前股价的交易价格约为 2030 年收入的 1.5 倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的 1 倍到 2 倍，这表明 PLUG 股票的未来增长已经有多大。当然，有人可能会说，PLUG 2030 年的增长前景可能仍然好于当今的普通公司，因为 PLUG 似乎很有可能在 2030 年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信，未来十年 PLUG 股价的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果 PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格仍然相对较高，为 3.5 倍，那么我们的市值估计约为 370 亿美元，大约是今天的 2.3 倍。然而，PLUG 的股票数量在未来十年内不会保持不变，这就是为什么每股回报率将低于此。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%，那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。市值为 370 亿美元，每只个股的交易价格约为 53 美元，这意味着从今天开始回报率约为 100%。按年计算，这相当于8%的回报率。8% 的年回报率远非坏事，但要实现这一目标，许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG 必须执行良好，交付增长项目，并避免大规模发行股票。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要 2030 年仍然相当高的 3.5 倍销售倍数时，我认为这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8% 的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股，这将是不同的，但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考，如果 PLUG 表现良好并达到增长预期，但其股票交易价格为 2030 年销售额的 2.5 倍，那么假设年稀释 2%，股价将为 37 美元，这相当于仅 4% 的年回报率。仅去年一年，PLUG 的股票数量就增加了约 50%，尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释，但 PLUG 的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加 2% 以上，这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内不会因 PLUG 而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报，尽管 Plug Power 的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票的定价已经体现在未来的大幅增长中，我相信通过低风险投资、波动性较小的股票也可以产生低于 10% 范围内的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：10年后普拉格能源会在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点，但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上述 5 月份的情景，PLUG 在 2030 年的交易价格可能为 37-55 美元，考虑到又一年的增长，我相信，如果很多事情进展顺利，我们在 2031 年的交易价格可能会达到 40-60 美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题，或者股份数量增长超过预期，这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为 PLUG 股票具有相当大的长期上涨潜力，但中高个位数范围内的预期回报并不巨大，并且可以通过更成熟、波动性较小、不确定性较小的投资产生相同的回报和较低的执行风险。因此，我确实认为 PLUG 不值得在这里购买，尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832314190,"gmtCreate":1629591099510,"gmtModify":1633683963491,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832314190","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","SNPS":"新思科技","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","GOOG":"谷歌","TSM":"台积电","ASML":"阿斯麦","AMZN":"亚马逊","SSNLF":"三星电子","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"ON":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814154950,"gmtCreate":1630800408470,"gmtModify":1632905889767,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814154950","repostId":"1189766406","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832439790,"gmtCreate":1629674288910,"gmtModify":1633683493420,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832439790","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838580395,"gmtCreate":1629419076017,"gmtModify":1633685020906,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazon!","listText":"Amazon!","text":"Amazon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838580395","repostId":"2160670097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833213411,"gmtCreate":1629244757633,"gmtModify":1633686331813,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Very volatile","listText":"Very volatile","text":"Very volatile","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833213411","repostId":"2160978315","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160978315","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629243603,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2160978315?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160978315","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent ","content":"<p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里周二对新生的加密资产市场说了一些严厉的话。</blockquote></p><p> The central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.</p><p><blockquote>这位央行行长表示，他认为全球排名第一的加密货币比特币没有任何用例，并将更广泛的数字资产行业称为在很大程度上与欺诈和炒作有关的行业。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.</p><p><blockquote>“加密货币 95% 都是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱，”卡什卡里在蒙大拿州大天空举行的太平洋西北经济区域年度峰会上发表讲话时说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，CoinDesk 上的比特币价格为 44,993 美元，下跌 2.4%。与此同时，以太币区块链上的以太币易手至 3,069 美元，下跌 3%，而迷因币狗狗币的交易价格约为 30 美分，下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，加密货币在机构投资者中获得了吸引力，但与传统市场相比，仍被视为一种投机性和高风险的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里还提出了他对货币政策计划的一些看法，指出他仍然认为美国劳动力市场“非常宽松”，并表示他可能需要几份更强劲的就业报告，然后他才倾向于支持缩减央行每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联储主席发表上述言论之际，越来越多的人开始讨论，随着经济试图从疫情中复苏，何时撤回美联储新冠时代的宽松政策，并最终加息。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>周二，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数结束了五个交易日的连涨，一些人将当天的下跌至少部分归咎于对宽松货币政策倒退的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里表示，如果就业市场合作，在2021年底前开始减少债券购买是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份，美国创造了强劲的 943,000 个就业岗位，一些人认为这是经济复苏正在获得一些动力的迹象，尽管 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株最近发起了攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto is '95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,' says Fed's Neel Kashkari<blockquote>美联储的尼尔·卡什卡里 (Neel Kashkari) 表示，加密货币“95% 是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯美联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里周二对新生的加密资产市场说了一些严厉的话。</blockquote></p><p> The central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.</p><p><blockquote>这位央行行长表示，他认为全球排名第一的加密货币比特币没有任何用例，并将更广泛的数字资产行业称为在很大程度上与欺诈和炒作有关的行业。</blockquote></p><p> \"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.</p><p><blockquote>“加密货币 95% 都是欺诈、炒作、噪音和混乱，”卡什卡里在蒙大拿州大天空举行的太平洋西北经济区域年度峰会上发表讲话时说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，CoinDesk 上的比特币价格为 44,993 美元，下跌 2.4%。与此同时，以太币区块链上的以太币易手至 3,069 美元，下跌 3%，而迷因币狗狗币的交易价格约为 30 美分，下跌 5.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Crypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.</p><p><blockquote>2021年，加密货币在机构投资者中获得了吸引力，但与传统市场相比，仍被视为一种投机性和高风险的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里还提出了他对货币政策计划的一些看法，指出他仍然认为美国劳动力市场“非常宽松”，并表示他可能需要几份更强劲的就业报告，然后他才倾向于支持缩减央行每月购买1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券。</blockquote></p><p> The Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>明尼阿波利斯联储主席发表上述言论之际，越来越多的人开始讨论，随着经济试图从疫情中复苏，何时撤回美联储新冠时代的宽松政策，并最终加息。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.</p><p><blockquote>周二，道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数结束了五个交易日的连涨，一些人将当天的下跌至少部分归咎于对宽松货币政策倒退的担忧日益加剧。</blockquote></p><p> For his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.</p><p><blockquote>卡什卡里表示，如果就业市场合作，在2021年底前开始减少债券购买是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> In July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>7 月份，美国创造了强劲的 943,000 个就业岗位，一些人认为这是经济复苏正在获得一些动力的迹象，尽管 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株最近发起了攻击。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-is-95-fraud-hype-noise-and-confusion-says-feds-neel-kashkari-11629236416?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/crypto-is-95-fraud-hype-noise-and-confusion-says-feds-neel-kashkari-11629236416?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160978315","content_text":"Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday had some harsh words for the nascent crypto asset market.\nThe central banker said he doesn't see any use case for bitcoin , the world's No. 1 crypto, and referred to the broader digital-asset sector as one that is largely tied to fraud and hype.\n\"Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion,\" Kashkari said, speaking at the Pacific Northwest Economic Regional Annual Summit in Big Sky, Mont.\nBitcoin prices were at $44,993, down 2.4% on CoinDesk on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Ether on the Ethereum blockchain was changing hands at $3,069, off 3%, while meme coin dogecoin was trading at around 30 cents, down 5.1%.\nCrypto has gained traction among institutional investors in 2021 but is still viewed as a speculative and highly risky trade compared with traditional markets.\nKashkari also offered some of his views on monetary policy plans, noting that he still sees a \"a lot of slack\" in the U.S. labor market, and suggesting that he might need a couple of more strong jobs reports before he is inclined to support a push to scale back the central bank's monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nThe Minneapolis Fed president's comments come amid growing talk about the timing of pulling back the Fed's COVID-era accommodations and eventually raising interest rates as the economy attempts a recovery from the pandemic.\nOn Tuesday , the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index snapped five-session win streaks, with some blaming the day's declines at least partly on growing concerns about a rollback of easy-money policies.\nFor his part, Kashkari said that it would be reasonable to start reducing bond-buying by the end of 2021, if the job market cooperates.\nIn July, the U.S. created a robust 943,000 jobs , in what some viewed as a sign that the economic recovery was gaining some steam, despite the latest assault from the delta variant of COVID-19.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XBTmain":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830602589,"gmtCreate":1629068549341,"gmtModify":1633687745526,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830602589","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这 10 只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资中最流行的流行语之一是 “复利者 ”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike 或 Visa 的成长型投资者寻求确定能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长的公司（最好是两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock&nbsp;that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股票价格应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在5到10年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的 “10 bagger”--回报率是你购买价格 10 倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的笔记和投资专业人士的客户信中充满了复合器的参考资料。许多下一代价值经理，在<i>巴伦</i>五月份的封面故事，正在寻求此类股票，而不是廉价股票的传统价值。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高价。真正的大赢家很少。根据 Durable Capital Partners 的数据，在 10 年的漫长系列中，只有大约 35 家公司的股价每年复合上涨 20% 或更多，导致至少增长了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as&nbsp;Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and&nbsp;Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意坚持使用大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，列出了一份包含 10 只股票的兼收并蓄的名单，其中大多数市值低于 100 亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利 以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的 10 只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <thead>   <tr>    <th>Company / Ticker</th>    <th>Recent Price</th>    <th>YTD Change</th>    <th>2021E P/E</th>    <th>2021E Price/Sales</th>    <th>2022E P/E</th>    <th>2022E Price/Sales</th>    <th>LT Growth Rate*</th>    <th>Market Value (bil)</th>    <th>Comment</th>   </tr>  </thead>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Amedysis / AMED</td>    <td>$185.15</td>    <td>-37%</td>    <td>30.2</td>    <td>2.7</td>    <td>27.7</td>    <td>2.4</td>    <td>10.5%</td>    <td>$6.3</td>    <td>Leader in home health care</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amyris / AMRS</td>    <td>13.64</td>    <td>121</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>10.4</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>9.7</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>4.1</td>    <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td>    <td>81.73</td>    <td>-6</td>    <td>19.4</td>    <td>1.3</td>    <td>17.7</td>    <td>1.2</td>    <td>8.6</td>    <td>11.0</td>    <td>Defense-department consultant</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td>    <td>172.76</td>    <td>26</td>    <td>25.8</td>    <td>1.5</td>    <td>22.2</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>18.4</td>    <td>18.2</td>    <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td>    <td>147.15</td>    <td>7</td>    <td>40.9</td>    <td>1.6</td>    <td>15.7</td>    <td>1.4</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>6.3</td>    <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td>    <td>197.10</td>    <td>24</td>    <td>45.7</td>    <td>2.6</td>    <td>43.5</td>    <td>2.5</td>    <td>19.3</td>    <td>8.8</td>    <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td>    <td>138.19</td>    <td>74</td>    <td>192.3</td>    <td>28.6</td>    <td>140.8</td>    <td>22.5</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>6.6</td>    <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td>    <td>44.38</td>    <td>-24</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>1.9</td>    <td>1890.3</td>    <td>1.7</td>    <td>30.0</td>    <td>4.8</td>    <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Trex / TREX</td>    <td>105.94</td>    <td>27</td>    <td>51.9</td>    <td>10.5</td>    <td>43.6</td>    <td>9.3</td>    <td>18.8</td>    <td>12.2</td>    <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Upwork / UPWK</td>    <td>44.31</td>    <td>28</td>    <td>NM</td>    <td>11.4</td>    <td>556.8</td>    <td>9.2</td>    <td>NA</td>    <td>5.7</td>    <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年市盈率</th><th>2021年价格/销售额</th><th>2022年市盈率</th><th>2022年价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>阿梅迪西斯/阿梅德</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>阿米里斯/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>纳米</td><td>10.4</td><td>纳米</td><td>9.7</td><td>纳</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股 / BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B亨特运输服务 / JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>擅长多式联运</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>纳</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假领域的顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/场地</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>大型园林绿化用品供应商</td></tr><tr><td>外科凝视/凝视</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/固定</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>纳米</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex / Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>合成木地板的顶级制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork / UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>纳米</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>纳</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH的估计是针对截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX 的估计适用于截至 2022 年 7 月和 2023 年 7 月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的每年每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys (AMED) 是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚小盘股成长基金经理丹-科尔预测说：”该行业将进行大规模整合。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移”。</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys 股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍以上。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，削减了 2021 年财务指引，股价约为 185 美元，下跌了近 30%。2021 年盈利预期目前为每股 6.13 美元，低于近 7 美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍然有能力每年实现 10% 的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris（AMRS）是合成生物学领域的领导者。It 粉丝表示，它的机会是以环保的方式取代目前由石化产品、动物和植物制成的一系列产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗，Amyris生产角鲨烷等物质，角鲨烷是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；以及通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为 13 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦</i>七月份对该公司的评价很高。在消费品牌的推动下，Amyris 预计到 2025 年销售额将达到 20 亿美元，高于今年的 4 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“拥有 Amyris 股票的 Pinnacle Associates 公司的投资组合经理兰迪-巴伦（Randy Baron）说：”世界需要清洁化学，而 Amyris 正是创造清洁化学的关键。他认为到 2022 年底，它们的价格可能会达到 75 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦汉密尔顿控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府在最近一个财政年度占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务，与政府建立了牢固的联系。其股票交易价格约为 81 美元，收益率为 1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>“T. Rowe Price New Horizons 基金经理乔希-斯宾塞（Josh Spencer）说：”它已经建立了一种强大的、类似合作伙伴关系的文化，并有着长期的稳定增长记录。他认为博思艾伦有能力实现 9% 至 10% 的年收入增长，每年盈利增长 15% 至 16%，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支受到更多限制，该股较 100 美元的峰值下跌了 20%。斯宾塞将此次回调视为买入机会，该股估值不到市盈率的 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the&nbsp;Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B亨特运输服务公司（JBHT）是多式联运货运领域的领导者，多式联运货运涉及卡车在铁路线上的节能运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。过去 20 年里，其股价上涨了 30 倍，最近达到 173 美元。“Durable Capital Partners 首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利-埃伦博根（Henry Ellenbogen）说：”它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad）的合作关系使其在多式联运货运领域占据了强大的地位。J.B亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还涉足数字货运经纪业务——将卡车司机与航运客户进行匹配。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen 表示，考虑到 2022 年盈利增长前景，该股 2022 年盈利预期的 22 倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有 70 万业主，是一种有弹性的商业模式，拥有可观的费用收入，并且比同行更容易接触到夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>“Baron Focused Growth fund 的经理大卫-巴伦（David Baron）说：”它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。他补充说，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为 145 美元，该公司应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>巴伦认为，根据 2022 年的预测，这些股票的自由现金流收益率为 11%，价格便宜。他表示，该股自 2018 年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能会为股东带来 20% 的年回报。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply（SITE）是美国最大的园林绿化产品供应商，鉴于该公司在高度分散的行业中仅占 13% 的市场份额，因此具有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚大学的科尔说：”它正在有机增长，并有很多收购机会。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股估值约为 197 美元，估值丰富，是 2022 年预计每股收益 4.54 美元的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar Surgical（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于视力问题在全球范围内的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，该镜头已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>“Baillie Gifford 全球经理道格-布罗迪（Doug Brodie）说：”它可以创造大量的销量。“它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼晶状体可在不到一小时的时间内植入，而且不需要摘除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar 股价最近为 138 美元，估值很高，是 2022 年预计销售额的 20 多倍，是 2022 年预计收益的 140 倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix（SFIX）开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“Stitch Fix 持有者 Marathon Partners Equity Management 的首席投资官 Mario Cibelli 说：”这可能是未来的 Nordstrom。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题”。Stitch Fix利用6,000名私人造型师和大量数据，试图识别订户的口味，以产生高满意度，并限制定期发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者担心潜在的流失和公司的最终盈利能力，该公司的股价约为 44 美元，比年初的水平下跌了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli 预计收入每年将增长 20% 以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内将成为一项潜在的非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex（TREX）是高端木质甲板替代品的顶级生产商，该甲板由95%的回收材料制成，是一种环保的住宅。该股股价为 105 美元，是 2022 年预期市盈率的 43 倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T. Rowe Price 的 Spencer 认为 Trex 物有所值，因为他认为 Trex 可以实现 15% 至 20% 的可持续年收入增长。预计 2022 年盈利将增长约 20%，并在随后几年以类似的速度增长。“他说：”如果把时钟拨快三年，看起来就不会那么贵了。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork（UPWK）是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到了 Baillie Gifford 的 Brodie 的青睐，他说它能提高企业对自由职业者的接受度。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>最近股价在 44 美元左右，并不便宜。Upwork 的估值为 57 亿美元，是今年近 5 亿美元预计销售额的 10 倍多。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于销售快速增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长 30% 以上，2022 年将增长 25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“布罗迪说：”中小型企业更容易接受自由职业者，但大型企业的人力资源部门却对自由职业者嗤之以鼻。Upwork旨在通过审查其自由职业者和提供数千套技能来改变这种看法。“他说：”Upwork 可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VAC":"万豪度假环球","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","AMED":"阿米斯医疗","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VAC":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"STAA":0.9,"TREX":0.9,"SITE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817201431,"gmtCreate":1630964740323,"gmtModify":1632904985758,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817201431","repostId":"1158349328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158349328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630913486,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158349328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158349328","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like","content":"<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158349328","content_text":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.\nSince 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.\nOver that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.\nA similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.\nThis Week \nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reportsthe producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810763354,"gmtCreate":1630016909578,"gmtModify":1704954515115,"author":{"id":"3579605184200794","authorId":"3579605184200794","name":"Hilaryteowj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bde9e1d8bb1793e281fca7c37e2f504c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579605184200794","idStr":"3579605184200794"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810763354","repostId":"1158216410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}