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Jarenng

Jarenng

I FKING LOVE MONEY

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2021-12-18

Like pls

Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report<blockquote>Beke 在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，早盘交易中股价下跌超过 5%</blockquote>

2021-12-18

Like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-18

No

EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7% and General Motors sliding 5%<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，通用汽车下跌 5%</blockquote>

2021-10-26

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$gogogo 1k

2021-10-12

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$breaking 800 today?

2021-10-12

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$waited damn long

2021-08-31

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$u p to 40

2021-06-30

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$:)))))))

2021-06-17

Let's gooooooooo

2021-06-17

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$hodl

2021-06-15

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$70!

2021-06-14

$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$breaking $4 soon? What u think?

2021-06-14

Possible for $55. Diamond hands

2021-06-11

$Arcturus Therapeutics Ltd.(ARCT)$is there hope?

2021-06-07

$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$going up

2021-06-07

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$moon moon moon

2021-06-05

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$sell all these

2021-06-05

Sell

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-05

Time to take profit

Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>

2021-06-05

Sellllllllllll

Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699140412","repostId":"1160013875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160013875","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639752126,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160013875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 22:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report<blockquote>Beke 在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，早盘交易中股价下跌超过 5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160013875","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report.It today issued the f","content":"<p>Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32df0704b5e81f8fd6aa35aa5921c563\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Muddy Waters Capital LLC (“Muddy Waters”).</p><p><blockquote>在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，Beke 在早盘交易中下跌超过 5%。针对 Muddy Waters Capital LLC（“Muddy Waters ”）在一份报告中提出的指控，该公司今天发表了以下声明。</blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, Muddy Waters issued a short seller report attacking Beike. Based upon the Company’s preliminary review and evaluation of the report, the Company believes the report is without merit and contains numerous errors of fact, unsubstantiated statements, and misleading speculations and interpretations. The report also shows a lack of basic understanding of the housing transactions industry in China.</p><p><blockquote>昨日，浑水发布空头报告攻击贝壳。根据公司对该报告的初步审查和评估，公司认为该报告毫无根据，包含许多事实错误、未经证实的陈述以及误导性的猜测和解释。报告还显示了对中国房屋交易行业缺乏基本的了解。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report<blockquote>Beke 在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，早盘交易中股价下跌超过 5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report<blockquote>Beke 在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，早盘交易中股价下跌超过 5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-17 22:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32df0704b5e81f8fd6aa35aa5921c563\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">It&nbsp;today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Muddy Waters Capital LLC (“Muddy Waters”).</p><p><blockquote>在驳斥浑水公司的报告后，Beke 在早盘交易中下跌超过 5%。针对 Muddy Waters Capital LLC（“Muddy Waters ”）在一份报告中提出的指控，该公司今天发表了以下声明。</blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, Muddy Waters issued a short seller report attacking Beike. Based upon the Company’s preliminary review and evaluation of the report, the Company believes the report is without merit and contains numerous errors of fact, unsubstantiated statements, and misleading speculations and interpretations. The report also shows a lack of basic understanding of the housing transactions industry in China.</p><p><blockquote>昨日，浑水发布空头报告攻击贝壳。根据公司对该报告的初步审查和评估，公司认为该报告毫无根据，包含许多事实错误、未经证实的陈述以及误导性的猜测和解释。报告还显示了对中国房屋交易行业缺乏基本的了解。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160013875","content_text":"Beke fell over 5% in morning trading after it refuted the Muddy Waters’ report.It today issued the following statement in response to allegations made in a report by Muddy Waters Capital LLC (“Muddy Waters”).\nYesterday, Muddy Waters issued a short seller report attacking Beike. Based upon the Company’s preliminary review and evaluation of the report, the Company believes the report is without merit and contains numerous errors of fact, unsubstantiated statements, and misleading speculations and interpretations. The report also shows a lack of basic understanding of the housing transactions industry in China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699157784,"gmtCreate":1639758753150,"gmtModify":1639758754716,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699157784","repostId":"2192597562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699157668,"gmtCreate":1639758677263,"gmtModify":1639758678772,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699157668","repostId":"1113440959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113440959","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639752802,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113440959?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 22:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7% and General Motors sliding 5%<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，通用汽车下跌 5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113440959","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown","content":"<p>EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown&nbsp;Motors&nbsp;sliding&nbsp;6%&nbsp;and General Motors sliding 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd629a366b9a963976bc2a56e7c34763\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在早盘交易中大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，Lordstown Motors 下跌 6%，通用汽车下跌 5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7% and General Motors sliding 5%<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，通用汽车下跌 5%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7% and General Motors sliding 5%<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，通用汽车下跌 5%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-17 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown&nbsp;Motors&nbsp;sliding&nbsp;6%&nbsp;and General Motors sliding 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd629a366b9a963976bc2a56e7c34763\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在早盘交易中大幅下跌，Rivian下跌 12%，Lucid Group 下跌 7%，Lordstown Motors 下跌 6%，通用汽车下跌 5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","GM":"通用汽车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113440959","content_text":"EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown Motors sliding 6% and General Motors sliding 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9,"GM":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856239714,"gmtCreate":1635180108958,"gmtModify":1635180110874,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>gogogo 1k","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>gogogo 1k","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$gogogo 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Diamond hands","listText":"Possible for $55. Diamond hands","text":"Possible for $55. 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these","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f47e650f1032ddfe16afab63175012","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112044869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045796,"gmtCreate":1622831051115,"gmtModify":1634097573399,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell","listText":"Sell","text":"Sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112045796","repostId":"2140840159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045564,"gmtCreate":1622831027658,"gmtModify":1631885485440,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to take profit","listText":"Time to take profit","text":"Time to take profit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112045564","repostId":"1167651093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167651093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622820402,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167651093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167651093","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the com","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>  <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>  <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>  <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Shopify 一直为长期投资者提供服务，尽管估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中一直受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的一个关键方面。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images 投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify (SHOP) 因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为争论最激烈的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出强劲的营收和利润增长，同时也提高了现金流利润率。管理层能够通过 Shopify Payments 及其商户解决方案套件实现商户货币化，这是一个绝妙的举动，表明管理层有能力继续从容应对地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时增持它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify： 挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 的批评者经常质疑投资 Shopify 的逻辑，因为你可以用亚马逊（AMZN）昂贵估值的一小部分来投资它。然而，SHOP 的投资者继续无视 “常见的估值逻辑”，指出 Shopify 令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SHOP 和 AMZN LTM 收入增长趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 和 SHOP LTM 收入同比增长和收入 3 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的 5 年里，SHOP 的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了 AMZN，而大流行病推动的电子商务顺风也推动了 SHOP 的更高增长，其 LTM 收入同比增长率为 99.6%，而 AMZN 的 41.5% “微薄 ”。此外，SHOP 的 3 年复合年增长率为 63.3%，也轻松超过了亚马逊 29.5% 的 3 年复合年增长率。很明显，SHOP 的增长确实非常惊人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 收入部分。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管 Shopify 的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已成为 Shopify 最重要的收入驱动力，占 21 年第一季度收入的 67.6%。随着商户解决方案收入基础的转变，公司继续推出多项新的商户解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商户基础货币化，提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移提高其 “粘性 ”和保留率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在 20 财年观察到的 COVID-19 大流行带来的拉动增长过于兴奋，如上所述。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会再次发生，并预计同比增长将恢复正常至大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计将超过 50%。尽管未来的增长有望恢复正常，但 SHOP 的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使 SHOP 得以大幅增加其平台上的商家数量，以便在 Shopify 强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 细分市场毛利率。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 21 年第一季度的毛利率高于近期的历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会继续下去。管理层明确指出，该公司正集中精力继续改善其强大的商家生态系统，例如开发 Shopify 履行网络 [SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率将会降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 支付是释放 GMV 增长优势的关键</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着 Shopify Payments 在其商家中的采用和使用不断增加，该公司预计其 SG&amp;A 效率将显着提高，因为 Shopify Payments 对 SG&amp;A 利润率的影响要小得多，因此随着 Shopify Payments 的进一步扩大，运营效率将得到提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p><p><blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管 LTM 在 21 年第一季度的毛利率相对较高，达到 53.5%，但直到最近才实现 LTM 息税前利润盈利（21 年第一季度：10.5%），这要归功于公司运营效率的稳步提高，尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，即使去年 COVID-19 带来了增长。</blockquote></p><p> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，LTM SG&amp;A 利润率呈持续下降趋势，从 2016 年第四季度的 44.1% 高点降至 21 年第一季度的 24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信，随着 SHOP 扩大其 SFN 规模，进一步加强其生态系统，SHOP 将继续提高运营效率，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 分析。数据来源：公司文件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家开始使用 Shopify Payments，我们可以清楚地看到 Shopify Payments 对商家的作用日益重要，GPV 的增长速度一直超过 GMV 的增长速度，21 年第一季度的数据分别同比增长 137% 和 114.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Shopify Payments 的采用和使用越来越多，21 年第一季度的 GPV 占 GMV 的 46.4%，而就在 3 年前，GMV 的 37.5% 还很低。我相信 Shopify 正朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向 Shopify Payments，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的 GMV 大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify MRR 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p><p><blockquote>GPV 增长的持续改善正值一个重要节点，因为在大流行之前，SHOP 的 MRR 增长已经放缓（从 2019 年第一季度的 36% 下降到 2020 年第二季度的 21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商户货币化，有助于控制这种放缓，同时为商户解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 按商家位置划分的收入同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p><p><blockquote>虽然美国商家仍然是 SHOP 最重要的收入驱动力（占 20 财年收入的 66.7%），但该公司在其他地区市场，尤其是在世界其他地区，也经历了快速增长。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行之前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速、持续地增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p><p><blockquote>我们还从亚马逊国际业务的增长中观察到了这一点，尽管亚马逊在前几个季度有所落后，但在过去两个季度中，亚马逊国际业务的增长率已开始超过北美业务的增长率，最终在 21 年第一季度，亚马逊国际业务的同比增长率为 60.4%，而北美业务的同比增长率为 39.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国零售电子商务收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么提高国际增长对于 Shopify 继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管 Shopify 商家在国际上销售产品，但 SFN 目前只为向美国客户销售产品的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对 Shopify 电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从 2021 年的同比 8.7% 降至 2025 年的同比 2.7%），像 Shopify 这样依赖高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从其主要竞争对手那里夺取市场份额，要么寻求美国以外的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>东南亚电子商务市场价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：22.6%）和美国市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：3.73%）的增长率，就不难看出哪个市场将成为不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于美国市场的规模，它仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的大部分增长可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify 继续推动其他地区市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT 利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p><p><blockquote>为了了解 Shopify 在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先要考虑该地区最重要的电子商务企业： Sea Limited (SE)，我曾在最近的一篇文章中详细介绍过它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p><p><blockquote>不难看出，与 SE 的在线市场平台 Shopee 相比，SHOP 依靠订阅和商家解决方案的盈利能力更强的商业模式是如何推动息税前利润率高得多的： Shopee 目前由该公司盈利的 Garena 游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Sea 仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，因此其息税前利润率有了显着改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>当我们对 SE 和 SHOP 未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，尤其是 SG&amp;A 利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和 SHOP 预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在对其自由现金流进行建模时，SE 预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的大型现金流机器。这并不是说 SHOP 看起来很草率，但与 SE 的 FCF 利润率相比，它们看起来肯定不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和商店预计收入 CAGR（5 年、10 年）、10 年预计 Av。无杠杆自由现金流保证金，EV / FY+1 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们将它们目前的估值水平（EV / FY+1 Rev）纳入考量时，我们可以看到 SE 目前的估值（16.3 倍）比 SHOP 的估值（32.7 倍）更具吸引力，同时还能将快速增长的收入转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该注意的是，我对两家公司进行了建模，以延续他们的一鸣惊人的业绩：SE（5年CAGR 44.3%，10年CAGR 26.7%），SHOP（5年CAGR 41.4%，10年CAGR 32.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些希望分享东南亚市场快速增长的国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美国电子商务软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年SEA最受欢迎的在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、Marketing in Asia</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济时，这一点变得非常清楚。Shopify 在软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，这还不包括亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计 Shopify 将继续快速扩张，但我相信它面临着比 Sea Limited 更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场份额预计会增长放缓。SHOP 每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行来证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p><p><blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是目前东南亚占主导地位的在线市场，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉近了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了一种飞轮效应，类似于Shopify支付为Shopify所做的事情。Sea 在东南亚的领导地位肯定会失去，作为无可争议的领导者，该公司可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将 Shopify 的估值与 SE 的估值进行比较时，SE 的估值现在看起来更有吸引力，拥有更强的市场领导地位和更高的潜在增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>自 10 月 20 日以来，SHOP 的价格走势一直处于大盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于 2 月 21 日设定在 1500 美元左右。支撑位在 1000 美元左右，对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在 835 美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管 SHOP 的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping it all up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Shopify 是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但凭借其不断完善的商家生态系统，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在 COVID-19 熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使得 SHOP 作为一只在下一次大跌中积极上涨的股票处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify Is An Expensive Stock That Keeps Delivering The Goods<blockquote>Shopify 是一只持续交付货物的昂贵股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.</li>  <li>The company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.</li>  <li>Its technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.</li>  <li>I attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52317e0f54753da09429856ece6bc6b5\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Shopify 一直为长期投资者提供服务，尽管估值很高，但他们仍对该公司保持信心。</li><li>该公司在支付和国际市场方面拥有多种增长动力，以进一步推动其增长故事。</li><li>其技术图还显示了一只在长期上升趋势中一直受到强有力支撑的股票。</li><li>我试图讨论其经营业绩的关键方面，以及为什么投资者也应该将国际扩张作为电子商务增长的一个关键方面。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：JHVEPhoto/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images 投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify (SHOP) 因其爆炸性的收入增长率和高估值而成为争论最激烈的电子商务股票之一。该公司继续表现出强劲的营收和利润增长，同时也提高了现金流利润率。管理层能够通过 Shopify Payments 及其商户解决方案套件实现商户货币化，这是一个绝妙的举动，表明管理层有能力继续从容应对地执行其高增长战略。尽管其估值水平相对较高，但从技术角度来看，它仍然是一只非常强劲的股票，因此看涨投资者可能会考虑在下一次下跌时增持它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify： 挑战亚马逊的估值逻辑</b></blockquote></p><p> Shopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>Shopify 的批评者经常质疑投资 Shopify 的逻辑，因为你可以用亚马逊（AMZN）昂贵估值的一小部分来投资它。然而，SHOP 的投资者继续无视 “常见的估值逻辑”，指出 Shopify 令人难以置信的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2dcffad535b32122075c2b0af38ff14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"818\"><span>SHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SHOP 和 AMZN LTM 收入增长趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d799fb8dc581602cf953723e8439b3\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\"><span>AMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth &amp; Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AMZN 和 SHOP LTM 收入同比增长和收入 3 年复合年增长率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的 5 年里，SHOP 的收入增长在每个报告季度都轻松超过了 AMZN，而大流行病推动的电子商务顺风也推动了 SHOP 的更高增长，其 LTM 收入同比增长率为 99.6%，而 AMZN 的 41.5% “微薄 ”。此外，SHOP 的 3 年复合年增长率为 63.3%，也轻松超过了亚马逊 29.5% 的 3 年复合年增长率。很明显，SHOP 的增长确实非常惊人。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 引人注目的商家解决方案增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530e31580ddf7319700509d7bb77eadf\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"605\"><span>Shopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 收入部分。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，我们可以看到，尽管 Shopify 的收入增长基础相当广泛，但其商家解决方案部门对公司收入基础的贡献越来越大，并已成为 Shopify 最重要的收入驱动力，占 21 年第一季度收入的 67.6%。随着商户解决方案收入基础的转变，公司继续推出多项新的商户解决方案计划和服务，以进一步将公司的商户基础货币化，提高其生态系统的实力，从而随着时间的推移提高其 “粘性 ”和保留率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25591146598f17356e29c09b22ee48a\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Shopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 订阅解决方案和商家解决方案同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and&nbsp;expects YoY growth to normalize&nbsp;to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应小心，不要对我们在 20 财年观察到的 COVID-19 大流行带来的拉动增长过于兴奋，如上所述。管理层已经在指导中强烈强调，他们预计这种情况不会再次发生，并预计同比增长将恢复正常至大流行之前的水平，在这种情况下，估计将超过 50%。尽管未来的增长有望恢复正常，但 SHOP 的增长并不缓慢，更重要的是，去年的增长使 SHOP 得以大幅增加其平台上的商家数量，以便在 Shopify 强大的生态系统中实现未来的货币化。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81297d610a91d9faaac76cab97c2a46\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"566\"><span>Shopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 细分市场毛利率。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the&nbsp;merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth&nbsp;even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 21 年第一季度的毛利率高于近期的历史趋势，但我们不应指望这种情况会继续下去。管理层明确指出，该公司正集中精力继续改善其强大的商家生态系统，例如开发 Shopify 履行网络 [SFN]，因为它预计商家解决方案部门将继续推动其收入增长，即使这意味着未来的毛利率将会降低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Shopify 支付是释放 GMV 增长优势的关键</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&amp;A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&amp;A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司澄清说，随着 Shopify Payments 在其商家中的采用和使用不断增加，该公司预计其 SG&amp;A 效率将显着提高，因为 Shopify Payments 对 SG&amp;A 利润率的影响要小得多，因此随着 Shopify Payments 的进一步扩大，运营效率将得到提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96f95af102893b8aa172d3bbb38e04e5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"724\"><span>SHOP EBIT Margin, SG&amp;A Margin, R&amp;D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店息税前利润率、SG&amp;A利润率、R&amp;D利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Clearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.</p><p><blockquote>显然，投资者可以看到，尽管 LTM 在 21 年第一季度的毛利率相对较高，达到 53.5%，但直到最近才实现 LTM 息税前利润盈利（21 年第一季度：10.5%），这要归功于公司运营效率的稳步提高，尽管毛利率状况随着时间的推移保持稳定，即使去年 COVID-19 带来了增长。</blockquote></p><p> We could see a consistently declining LTM SG&amp;A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，LTM SG&amp;A 利润率呈持续下降趋势，从 2016 年第四季度的 44.1% 高点降至 21 年第一季度的 24.8%，这意味着巨大的改善。因此，我相信，随着 SHOP 扩大其 SFN 规模，进一步加强其生态系统，SHOP 将继续提高运营效率，为商家及其客户创造更多价值和协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 分析。数据来源：公司文件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f4cabe3fd5b28627f459fb7c38d30d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店的 GMV 和 GPV 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，越来越多的商家开始使用 Shopify Payments，我们可以清楚地看到 Shopify Payments 对商家的作用日益重要，GPV 的增长速度一直超过 GMV 的增长速度，21 年第一季度的数据分别同比增长 137% 和 114.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2221628cdde154ad2c8a97a321036aa9\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>SHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>商店GPV占GMV的百分比。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>随着 Shopify Payments 的采用和使用越来越多，21 年第一季度的 GPV 占 GMV 的 46.4%，而就在 3 年前，GMV 的 37.5% 还很低。我相信 Shopify 正朝着正确的方向前进，继续推动越来越多的商家转向 Shopify Payments，因为它创造了一个强大的飞轮，可以释放越来越多预期的 GMV 大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0258ae827634f290dfe0d7d81fd92809\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify先生。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376f5f19c5f4a4cb9e4f4bb797fcb64\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Shopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify MRR 同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.</p><p><blockquote>GPV 增长的持续改善正值一个重要节点，因为在大流行之前，SHOP 的 MRR 增长已经放缓（从 2019 年第一季度的 36% 下降到 2020 年第二季度的 21%）。因此，通过战略性地将其他领域的商户货币化，有助于控制这种放缓，同时为商户解决方案开辟了许多新的收入机会，以帮助推动公司未来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Importance of International Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国际扩张的重要性</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d7cd04a66b877c2669945d4f9a68ef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"775\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按商家位置划分的Shopify收入。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31774ad4abd47199de636274620d5302\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>Shopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 按商家位置划分的收入同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.</p><p><blockquote>虽然美国商家仍然是 SHOP 最重要的收入驱动力（占 20 财年收入的 66.7%），但该公司在其他地区市场，尤其是在世界其他地区，也经历了快速增长。从上图可以看出，美国的经济增长在大流行之前就已经呈下降趋势，而世界其他地区的经济增长则继续快速、持续地增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39fd8a089cc64ae41da56ef8a8ddafe3\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Amazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>亚马逊收入部门同比增长。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.</p><p><blockquote>我们还从亚马逊国际业务的增长中观察到了这一点，尽管亚马逊在前几个季度有所落后，但在过去两个季度中，亚马逊国际业务的增长率已开始超过北美业务的增长率，最终在 21 年第一季度，亚马逊国际业务的同比增长率为 60.4%，而北美业务的同比增长率为 39.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7909e7fdd6bf5972121d1a9a70f75a46\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2017年至2025年美国零售电子商务收入。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c99e9a30fb46d3d1f22e77b72c40740\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>U.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国零售电子商务收入同比增长。数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>从上面我们可以看出，为什么提高国际增长对于 Shopify 继续实现其预期的惊人增长率如此重要。尽管 Shopify 商家在国际上销售产品，但 SFN 目前只为向美国客户销售产品的企业提供服务，这一事实表明了美国消费者对 Shopify 电子商务收入的重要性。然而，由于美国零售电子商务收入的增长预计将随着时间的推移而放缓（从 2021 年的同比 8.7% 降至 2025 年的同比 2.7%），像 Shopify 这样依赖高增长来证明其估值合理性的公司必须要么从其主要竞争对手那里夺取市场份额，要么寻求美国以外的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f4fcd9254552bdd46a6d9c613384d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Value of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain &amp; Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>东南亚电子商务市场价值。数据来源：谷歌、淡马锡控股、贝恩公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果我们放眼东南亚，比较东南亚市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：22.6%）和美国市场（2020 年至 2025 年预计 5 年复合年增长率：3.73%）的增长率，就不难看出哪个市场将成为不久的将来电子商务增长的主要驱动力。毫无疑问，鉴于美国市场的规模，它仍然是一个极其重要的市场，但未来的大部分增长可能来自海外市场。因此，Shopify 继续推动其他地区市场的增长非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Let's Bring in Sea Limited</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d40fe31435cdc50217df4172982b7354\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"821\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited &amp; SHOP EBIT 利润率、毛利率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.</p><p><blockquote>为了了解 Shopify 在东南亚市场的增长机会，我认为首先要考虑该地区最重要的电子商务企业： Sea Limited (SE)，我曾在最近的一篇文章中详细介绍过它。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.</p><p><blockquote>不难看出，与 SE 的在线市场平台 Shopee 相比，SHOP 依靠订阅和商家解决方案的盈利能力更强的商业模式是如何推动息税前利润率高得多的： Shopee 目前由该公司盈利的 Garena 游戏部门提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Sea 仍然能够推动显着的收入增长和运营效率，因此其息税前利润率有了显着改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788d4d4399cbdeb497792a1f90868e47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"714\"><span>EBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>息税前利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&amp;A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.</p><p><blockquote>当我们对 SE 和 SHOP 未来的息税前利润率进行建模时，我们可以看到两家公司成本效率的提高，尤其是 SG&amp;A 利润率的降低，将如何帮助两家公司随着时间的推移继续提高营业利润率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f94e62035fe5fc04eaeb95b7d760df28\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"703\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和 SHOP 预计无杠杆自由现金流利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.</p><p><blockquote>这就是他们的SE有望领先的地方。在对其自由现金流进行建模时，SE 预计将从其收入增长和营业利润中产生如此多的自由现金流，以至于该公司看起来越来越像一台向前发展的大型现金流机器。这并不是说 SHOP 看起来很草率，但与 SE 的 FCF 利润率相比，它们看起来肯定不那么令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa625e12090dfc0f64e439c278b5b9d0\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>SE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE 和商店预计收入 CAGR（5 年、10 年）、10 年预计 Av。无杠杆自由现金流保证金，EV / FY+1 修订版。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们将它们目前的估值水平（EV / FY+1 Rev）纳入考量时，我们可以看到 SE 目前的估值（16.3 倍）比 SHOP 的估值（32.7 倍）更具吸引力，同时还能将快速增长的收入转化为更高的自由现金流利润率。还应该注意的是，我对两家公司进行了建模，以延续他们的一鸣惊人的业绩：SE（5年CAGR 44.3%，10年CAGR 26.7%），SHOP（5年CAGR 41.4%，10年CAGR 32.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于那些希望分享东南亚市场快速增长的国际增长以及领先的现金流产生游戏领域的投资者来说，您应该看看SE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df93eabc2cf51bdca0056071317076a\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美国电子商务软件平台市场份额数据来源：Builtwith</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2485bbbc639e9512e106f6dd1ab48ff\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Unique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年SEA最受欢迎的在线零售商的独立访客。数据来源：iPrice Group、SimilarWeb、Marketing in Asia</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑美国与东南亚的竞争经济时，这一点变得非常清楚。Shopify 在软件平台领域面临着激烈的竞争，这还不包括亚马逊的实力。尽管我预计 Shopify 将继续快速扩张，但我相信它面临着比 Sea Limited 更激烈的竞争威胁，因为随着时间的推移，美国的市场份额预计会增长放缓。SHOP 每个季度都需要近乎完美的执行来证明其高估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> As compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.</p><p><blockquote>与SE相比，它显然是目前东南亚占主导地位的在线市场，其实力和规模也在增长，进一步拉近了与竞争对手的距离。再加上其ShopeePay支付平台，它还创造了一种飞轮效应，类似于Shopify支付为Shopify所做的事情。Sea 在东南亚的领导地位肯定会失去，作为无可争议的领导者，该公司可以在该地区抓住巨大的增长潜力。当我们将 Shopify 的估值与 SE 的估值进行比较时，SE 的估值现在看起来更有吸引力，拥有更强的市场领导地位和更高的潜在增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action and Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为和技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a9782afa86bafbd3d2e54e41e0c1d13\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"794\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>自 10 月 20 日以来，SHOP 的价格走势一直处于大盘整阶段，牛市陷阱于 2 月 21 日设定在 1500 美元左右。支撑位在 1000 美元左右，对于希望进一步增持的投资者来说，支撑位在 835 美元左右。值得注意的是，尽管 SHOP 的估值很高，但其长期上升趋势从未受到威胁，我预计这种情况将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping it all up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切都包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Shopify 是目前最昂贵的优质电子商务股票之一，但凭借其不断完善的商家生态系统，预计它也将在未来实现快速增长。再加上我所见过的股票最强烈的长期上升趋势偏差之一（即使在 COVID-19 熊市期间，它也没有失去关键支撑位），我相信这使得 SHOP 作为一只在下一次大跌中积极上涨的股票处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433111-shopify-an-expensive-stock-that-keeps-delivering","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167651093","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify has consistently delivered for long-term investors who have kept faith with the company despite its high valuations.\nThe company has multiple growth drivers in Payments, and International markets to further drive its growth story.\nIts technical picture also shows a stock that has always been strongly supported along its long-term uptrend.\nI attempt to discuss the key aspects of its operating performances and why investors should also focus on international expansion as a key aspect of e-commerce growth.\n\nPhoto by JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nShopify (SHOP) is one of the most hotly debated e-commerce stocks because of its explosive revenue growth rates and its high valuations. The company continues to demonstrate both stellar topline and bottomline growth while also improving its cash flow margins. The management’s ability to monetize its merchants through Shopify Payments and its suite of merchant solutions is a masterstroke that shows the capability of the management to be able to continue executing its high growth strategies with aplomb moving forward. Despite its relatively high valuation levels, it also remains a very strong stock from the technical point of view, so bullish investors may consider adding it at the next dip.\nShopify: Defying Amazon’s Valuation Logic\nShopify’s critics have often questioned the logic of investing in Shopify when you can invest in Amazon (AMZN) for a fraction of its expensive valuation. Yet, investors in SHOP continue to defy “common valuation logic” by pointing to Shopify’s incredible growth rates.\nSHOP and AMZN LTM Revenue Growth Trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nAMZN and SHOP LTM Revenue YoY Growth & Revenue 3Y CAGR. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nOver the last 5 years, SHOP’s revenue growth has easily surpassed AMZN at every reporting quarter, and the pandemic fueled e-commerce tailwind also drove higher growth to SHOP as its LTM revenue YoY growth read 99.6% as compared to AMZN’s “meagre” 41.5%. Moreover, SHOP’s revenue 3Y CAGR of 63.3% also easily bested AMZN’s 3Y CAGR of 29.5%. So clearly, SHOP’s growth has been truly phenomenal.\nShopify's Compelling Merchant Solutions Growth Drivers\nShopify Revenue Segments. Data Source: Company Filings\nIn recent years, we could see that even though Shopify’s revenue growth has been pretty much broad-based, its merchant solutions segment has been taking up an increasingly large contribution in the company’s revenue base and have transformed itself into Shopify’s most important revenue driver, accounting for 67.6% of Q1’21 revenue. The shift towards increasing the revenue base of merchant solutions has seen the company continuing to roll out multiple new merchant solutions initiatives and services to further monetize the company’s merchant base and improve the strength of its ecosystem, therefore enhancing its “stickiness” and retention over time.\nShopify Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nInvestors should be careful not to get too excited with the pulled forward growth as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that we observed in FY 20 as seen above. The management has already strongly emphasized in their guidance that they do not expect this to repeat, and expects YoY growth to normalize to levels seen before the pandemic, which in this case is estimated to be somewhere north of 50%. Even though growth is expected to normalize moving forward, it’s not as if SHOP has been growing slowly and more importantly the pulled forward growth last year has allowed SHOP to dramatically increase its merchants growth onto its platform for future monetization within Shopify’s robust ecosystem.\nShopify Segment Gross Margins. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough Q1’21’s gross margin was higher than recent historical trends, we should not expect this to carry on moving forward. The management pointed out clearly that the company is focusing its efforts to continue improving its robust ecosystem for its merchants such as developing the Shopify Fulfillment Network [SFN], as it expects that the merchant solutions segment to continue driving its revenue growth even if it means lesser gross margins moving forward.\nShopify Payments is the Key to Unlock the Benefits from GMV Growth\nDespite that, the company clarified that as Shopify Payments continue to see increased adoption and usage among its merchants, the company expects to see significant improvement to its SG&A efficiencies as Shopify Payments has a much lesser impact on SG&A margins, therefore leading to improvement on operating efficiencies as Shopify Payments scale up further.\nSHOP EBIT Margin, SG&A Margin, R&D Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nClearly, investors could see that despite posting a relatively high LTM gross margin profile in Q1’21: 53.5%, it has only recently turned LTM EBIT profitable (Q1’21: 10.5%), thanks to the company’s solid improvement with its operating efficiencies even though the gross margin profile has remained stable over time, even with the pulled forward growth from COVID-19 last year.\nWe could see a consistently declining LTM SG&A margin trend reaching 24.8% in Q1’21 from a high of 44.1% in Q4’16, signifying a huge improvement. Therefore, I’m confident that SHOP would continue to deliver improved operating efficiencies as it scales up its SFN to further strengthen its ecosystem, creating even more value and synergies for its merchants and their customers.\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV Analysis. Data Source: Company Filings\nSHOP’s GMV and GPV YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe could clearly see the increasingly important role of Shopify Payments for its merchants as more and more merchants are using Shopify Payments over time as GPV growth has outpaced GMV growth consistently, with Q1’21 reading coming in at 137% YoY growth and 114.4% YoY growth, respectively.\nSHOP GPV as a % of GMV. Data Source: Company Filings\nWith the increased adoption and usage of Shopify Payments, in Q1’21 GPV formed 46.4% of GMV, from a low of 37.5% of GMV just 3 years ago. I believe Shopify is moving in the right direction to continue driving more and more merchants towards Shopify Payments as it creates a powerful flywheel to unlock even more and more of the expected massive GMV growth moving forward.\nShopify MRR. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify MRR YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nThe sustained improvement in GPV growth has come at an important juncture as SHOP had already been experiencing slower MRR growth pre-pandemic (from 36% in Q1’19 to 21% in Q2’20). Therefore, by strategically being able to monetize its merchants in other areas has helped to manage this slowdown, while at the same time opened up many new revenue opportunities for Merchant Solutions to help drive the company’s future growth.\nThe Importance of International Expansion\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location. Data Source: Company Filings\nShopify Revenue by Merchant Location YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nAlthough U.S. merchants continue to be SHOP’s most important revenue driver (66.7% of FY 20 revenue), the company has also experienced rapid growth in other geographical markets, particularly in its Rest of World segment. As we can observe from the above chart, U.S. growth has already been trending down pre-pandemic, while Rest of World growth has continued to grow rapidly and consistently.\nAmazon Revenue Segments YoY Growth. Data Source: Company Filings\nWe also observed this from AMZN’s International segment growth where although it has been somewhat of a laggard in previous quarters, it has started to outpace North America’s growth for the last 2 quarters, culminating in Q1’21 YoY growth of 60.4% for the International segment against 39.5% for the North America segment.\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue 2017 to 2025. Data Source: Statista\nU.S. Retail e-commerce revenue YoY Growth. Data Source: Statista\nWe could see from the above why ramping up growth internationally is so important for Shopify to continue delivering its expected spectacular growth rates. Even though Shopify merchants sell internationally, the fact that the SFN currently serves only businesses whosell to U.S. customersindicates the significance of the U.S. consumers to Shopify’s ecommerce revenues. However, as the growth of U.S. retail e-commerce revenue is expected to slow down over time (from 8.7% YoY in 2021 to 2.7% YoY by 2025), companies like Shopify who rely on high growth to justify its valuation must either take market share away from its key competitors or look for growth outside of the United States.\nValue of Southeast Asia e-commerce market. Data Source: Google, Temasek Holdings, Bain & Company\nFor example, if we look across to Southeast Asia, and compare the growth rates of the Southeast Asian market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 22.6%) and the United States market (expected 5Y CAGR for 2020 to 2025: 3.73%), it’s easy to see which market will be the key driver of e-commerce growth in the near future. There’s no doubt that the U.S. market remains an extremely important market given its size, however much of the future growth will likely come from overseas markets. Therefore, it’s important that Shopify continues to drive growth across other geographical markets.\nLet's Bring in Sea Limited\nSea Limited & SHOP EBIT Margin, Gross Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nIn order to look at Shopify’s growth opportunities in the Southeast Asian market, I thought it would be important to first consider the most important e-commerce player in that region: Sea Limited (SE), which I had previouslycovered in detail in an article hererecently.\nIt’s easy to see how SHOP’s more profitable business model on relying on subscriptions and merchant solutions drove a much higher EBIT margin as compared to SE’s online marketplace platform: Shopee, which is currently being supported by the company’s profitable Garena gaming segment.\nDespite that, Sea has still been able to drive significant revenue growth and operating efficiencies such that its EBIT margins have seen remarkable improvement.\nEBIT Margin Forecast. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we modelled SE and SHOP’s EBIT margins moving forward, we could see how both companies’ improving cost efficiencies, notably from the reduction in SG&A margins, would help both companies to continue improving their operating margins over time.\nSE and SHOP Projected Unlevered FCF Margin. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nThis is where their SE is expected to pull ahead. In modelling their FCF, SE is expected to generate so much FCF from its revenue growth and operating profits that the company looks increasingly like a massive cash flow machine moving forward. It’s not as if SHOP looks sloppy, but when compared to SE’s FCF margins, they certainly don’t look as impressive though.\nSE and SHOP Projected Revenue CAGR (5Y, 10Y), 10Y Projected Av. Unlevered FCF Margin, EV / FY+1 Rev. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nMore importantly, when we bring their current valuation levels into the picture (EV / FY+1 Rev), we could see that SE’s current valuation (16.3x) looks so much more attractive than SHOP’s (32.7x), while being able to convert that rapid revenue growth into higher FCF margins. It should also be noted that I have modelled both companies to continue their blockbuster performances: SE (5Y CAGR of 44.3%, 10Y CAGR of 26.7%), SHOP (5Y CAGR 41.4%, 10Y CAGR 32.3%).\nTherefore, for investors who would like a share of that rapid international growth in the Southeast Asian market coupled with a leading cash flow generating gaming segment, you should look no further than SE.\nMarket share of e-commerce software platforms in the U.S. in 2021 Data Source: Builtwith\nUnique visitors to the most popular online retailers in SEA in 2020. Data Source: iPrice Group, SimilarWeb, Marketing in Asia\nWhen we consider the competitive economics in the U.S. against Southeast Asia, it becomes very clear. Shopify faces strong competition within its software platform segment, without accounting for Amazon’s prowess as well. Even though I expect Shopify to continue its rapid expansion, I believe that it faces more intensive competitive threats than Sea Limited as the pie in the U.S. is expected to grow slower over time. SHOP needs almost perfect execution every quarter to justify its lofty valuations.\nAs compared to SE, it is clearly the dominant online marketplace now in Southeast Asia by a fairly large margin, and its prowess and scale is also growing, further stretching the distance from its competitors. Coupled with its ShopeePay payments platform, it also creates a flywheel effect similar to what Shopify Payments does for Shopify. The leadership in Southeast Asia is surely Sea’s to lose, and there’s so much potential growth that the company can capture in this region as the undisputed leader. When we consider Shopify’s valuations against SE’s it looks quite clear SE’s valuation looks more attractive now, with stronger market leadership and arguably higher potential growth.\nPrice Action and Technical Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nSHOP’s price action has been stuck somewhat in a large consolidation phase since Oct 20, with the bull trap set in Feb 21 at around the $1500 level. Support was found at around the $1000 level, with further support at around the $835 level for investors who wish to add further into SHOP. It’s important to note that despite SHOP’s lofty valuations, its long term uptrend bias has never been threatened, and I expect this to carry on moving forward.\nWrapping it all up\nAlthough Shopify is one of the most expensive high quality e-commerce stocks right now, it’s also expected to generate rapid growth ahead with its ever improving ecosystem for its merchants. Coupled with one of the strongest long term uptrend biases that I have seen for stocks (It didn’t lose its key support levels even during the COVID-19 bear market), I believe this puts SHOP in a strong position as a stock to add aggressively at the next big dip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHOP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112045687,"gmtCreate":1622830991449,"gmtModify":1634097573742,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sellllllllllll","listText":"Sellllllllllll","text":"Sellllllllllll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112045687","repostId":"1154529120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154529120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622810459,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1154529120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 20:40","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险并存，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以当前相当低的估值购买的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>照片由 efetova/iStock 提供，来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了高增长的中国消费市场的机会。同时，通过一系列的创业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在额外的行业，比如云计算。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。看到股价上涨至 500 美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这在短期内不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自首次公开募股以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但还应该提到的是，2020 年下半年股价确实下跌，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服的 IPO 计划被叫停，2020 年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价现在基本与一年前持平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在那段时间内继续取得强劲的业绩。例如，上一季度阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，约为50%。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴财报发布中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于年化用户增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW还设法将其 EBITDA 同比增长 25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管对评级管理关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但仍实现了这一目标。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，营业收入增长速度更快，经阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款调整后，营业收入同比增长 48%。我认为，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的，以便更清楚地了解阿里巴巴平均一个季度的潜在“核心”盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技公司而言，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是由于投资者情绪疲软导致中国风险敞口和对监管的担忧导致的多重压缩的结果。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前 220 美元的价格计算，与目前分析师一致的目标价 298 美元相比，阿里巴巴的股价有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨 35%。分析师目标价通常以 1 年为期限发布，因此，如果分析师社区是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项很好的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个价格目标似乎一点也不离谱，因为 298 美元相当于今年预期净利润的约 29 倍，或明年净利润的 23 倍。当我们谈论 2022 年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票能突破500美元吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你看的是12个月的窗口，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从长远来看，那么 500 美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能达到的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为 20 美元，并且市盈率为 25，那么股票的交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 25 美元，市盈率为 20 倍，那么股票交易价格将为 500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>- 如果阿里巴巴-SW每股收益为 17 美元，交易价格为净利润的 29 倍，那么股价将（略低于）500 美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有许多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收入就越低。这反过来意味着价格目标可以更快实现，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们查看阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为 30-40 倍，相对于目前的股票估值（约为今年收益的 20 倍），其交易价格显然大幅溢价。我认为目前的估值太低了，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到 30 倍、35 倍甚至 40 倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股票估值可能会更低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，股票确实有一些估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设股票未来的交易价格是净利润的23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大盘股的估值相比，也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊 (AMZN) 的交易价格是今年市盈率的 59 倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用 23 倍市盈率使阿里巴巴的股价达到 500 美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为 21.70 美元。什么时候会是这样？在下图中，我们看到了今年、明年（2022 财年）和 2023 财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW到 2023 年将无法实现每股 22 美元的盈利，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到 2023 年每股收益会增长 100% 以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约 27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约 1.5 年的时间才能将每股收益从 15.20 美元（2023 年估计）增长到我们的目标 21.70 美元。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024 年和 2025 年的增长率仅为 20%，到 2025 年底，每股收益也可能达到 21.70 美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到 2025 年底（即 4.5 年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能达到 500 美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要高市盈率——我相信，在净利润的 23 倍下，阿里巴巴-SW不会很贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守，假设 2023 年每股收益预测过高 10%，并且 2023 年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长 17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年 27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW 2026 年的每股收益将达到 21.70 美元，未来 5.5 年内股价将升至 500 美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来 5.5 年内股价从当前水平上涨 130%，年化回报率为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结这一部分，我会说<i>是的，爸爸可以达到 500 美元</i>——但实际上这需要几年时间。到 2020 年代中期，这对我来说似乎是一个非常容易实现的目标，尽管当然，没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司从多个长期宏观趋势中实现了强劲的增长和利润，例如中国不断增长的消费者支出、不断增长的电子商务市场份额和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能是一个非常有益的游戏的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个有力选择。我属于后一类，因此以当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将有显着上涨空间。然而，根据你的风险承受能力以及你如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，你可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":113702079,"gmtCreate":1622638214191,"gmtModify":1634099710683,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$100 by end of the week!!!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>$100 by end of the week!!!!!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$$100 by end of the week!!!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284327883f499e5c15c340c67b25a79d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113702079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109523669,"gmtCreate":1619705915251,"gmtModify":1631886845443,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>I am waiting...$5","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNMD\">$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$</a>I am waiting...$5","text":"$Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.(MNMD)$I am waiting...$5","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa4ae54467f74fc4dc371a6712e54886","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/109523669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111359182,"gmtCreate":1622654256846,"gmtModify":1634099494906,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>loving This!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>loving This!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$loving This!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3632bcdc4938374a434c8f8b30cb6dd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111359182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":196068264,"gmtCreate":1621000202758,"gmtModify":1634194663066,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job","listText":"Good job","text":"Good job","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196068264","repostId":"2135710626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811707760,"gmtCreate":1630342797450,"gmtModify":1704958862160,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>u p to 40","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>u p to 40","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$u p to 40","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c43a072dea71be2043a4f2c0e6676cd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811707760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114530573,"gmtCreate":1623078783392,"gmtModify":1634037172404,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>moon moon moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>moon moon moon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$moon moon moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa30f8f73d1fd3f026dbf04cfa13f34","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114530573","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":927,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132002498,"gmtCreate":1622042821314,"gmtModify":1634184381122,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Better be good","listText":"Better be good","text":"Better be good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132002498","repostId":"1107926084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107926084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622042301,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107926084?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"June Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead<blockquote>六月展望：通胀、就业和美联储在未来一个月占据中心位置</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107926084","media":"benzinga","summary":"A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of Ju","content":"<p><div> A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed ...</p><p><blockquote><div>六月份发生了很多事情，但最激烈的焦点可能是 6 月 16 日下午的一件事。届时，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将结束6月份的会议，美联储...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>June Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead<blockquote>六月展望：通胀、就业和美联储在未来一个月占据中心位置</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJune Outlook: Inflation, Jobs, And The Fed Take Center Stage In Month Ahead<blockquote>六月展望：通胀、就业和美联储在未来一个月占据中心位置</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 23:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed ...</p><p><blockquote><div>六月份发生了很多事情，但最激烈的焦点可能是 6 月 16 日下午的一件事。届时，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将结束6月份的会议，美联储...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/05/21300753/june-outlook-inflation-jobs-and-the-fed-take-center-stage-in-month-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107926084","content_text":"A lot’s happening in June, but the most intense focus could be on a single event the afternoon of June 16.That’s when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up its June meeting and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses reporters. While a Powell press conference is important whenever it happens, this one has more significance than usual because of what the Fed said at its April meeting.Minutes from that gathering raised the chance of the Fed beginning to plan some sort of “taper” if the economy keeps galloping along. Remember, the Fed’s been snapping up $120 billion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities each month to provide liquidity and keep rates low during the pandemic, but has said it will begin “tapering,” or slowing the pace of those purchases, if certain employment parameters are met. Chances of a taper happening in the relatively near future suddenly appeared more likely based on the following words in the April minutes:“A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.”That statement appeared to surprise some analysts. They hadn’t expected the FOMC to publicly ponder actual tapering until possibly later this year. Those words, along with a string of robust economic data and earnings numbers, might have investors on tenterhooks waiting to hear the Fed’s fresh thinking on June 16. Will it give any hint of how long it’s willing to let things continue rolling full steam ahead? Just how worried are Powell and company about rising prices?Any sign that the Fed is ready to taper earlier than expected could cause Treasury yields to rise and potentially put pressure on the stock market.As The Fed Turns...It’s hard to blame Fed officials for wondering if the economy might be on the verge of overheating. After all, Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) grew more than 6%, the highest in decades. Layoffs appear to be trending much lower, if weekly initial jobless claims are correct, and many companies said during Q1 earnings season that they’re having supply chain issues even while paying more for the raw materials they need. This raises concerns about producer inflation making its way to consumers.The final straw might have been April’s consumer price index (CPI), which showed more than 4% year-over-year growth, the highest in a decade. Core month-over-month CPI saw its sharpest rise since April 1982, when President Reagan was serving his first term and Powell was a recent law school graduate.Though the Fed didn’t have all of this data in hand when it met in late April, the signs were already pointing toward major economic growth and price pressure, putting the Fed between the proverbial rock and a hard place.Powell has emphasized the importance of getting millions back to work, with unemployment still around 6% more than a year after the pandemic began. Earlier this year, the Fed made it very clear it would tolerate inflation above its 2% long-term target until employment got back on track, but this risks the chance of price pressure hurting consumers and companies. Corporate margins look very positive right now coming off huge Q1 earnings growth, but inflation over coming months could change that, perhaps resulting in pressure on stocks.There could be more Fed remarks in the next week or two, but then the pre-meeting silent period begins and June 16 looms. Powell is almost certainly going to face questions about those April meeting minutes.Tug-Of-War Persists Between Growth And ValueAll this focus on the Fed turns attention to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, a major metric for economic growth, inflation, and interest rate anticipation. It rallied from near historic lows of around 0.95% at the start of the year to a late-March high of 1.78% as the economy improved and inflation fears gathered. It then pulled back and hung around near 1.6% for a couple of months, trading at 1.61% as of late May.Anywhere above 1.75% might look interesting now, and 2% might spark some fear in the market. The rally in yields earlier this year really helped snuff out the Info Tech rally, since many of those stocks are priced in part based on anticipation of future growth, something higher borrowing costs might compress.That helped lead to the current tug-of-war between value sectors like Financials and Energy that tend to do better in a recovering economy where inflation is rising and Growth ones like Tech that outperformed during the shutdowns of 2020. The battle has raged most of the last two months, though there are now signs of at least some investors beginning to bifurcate Tech between the huge, mature companies like AppleAAPL 0.09%and MicrosoftMSFT 0.05%and smaller firms more dependent on keeping future growth paths skyrocketing. The AAPLs and MSFTs of the world have often led the broader market higher the last few years, and could be less vulnerable then smaller Tech firms if interest rates do start to rise.FIGURE 1:  MAY MALAISE.After a strong start to 2021, the S&P 500 Index (SPX—candlestick) had some struggles in May amid inflation worries. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX—purple line) has had a much more checkered year as some investors favored value over growth sectors, and continued to be weak heading into June. Data Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.But we may be putting the cart ahead of the horse, so to speak. The April jobs growth number of 266,000 was way, way below Wall Street’s expectations for more than 700,000 and some bullish predictions of a million. That puts focus squarely on the May jobs growth number, due June 4. Another weak jobs reading for May might take some pressure off of the Fed and rates, with “bad news” possibly becoming “good news” for stocks, so to speak.Remember that different U.S. states were in different reopening modes in April, which may have affected that number. It’s possible some of the earlier job growth won’t show up until May, or the April number could be revised upward once things become clearer. A lot of what Powell says and does on June 16 will likely reflect the jobs report, along with inflation data like the May 28 personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices, which the Fed is known to follow closely.The May CPI report on June 10 is another key one to watch next month when it comes to inflation. The Fed will have all that material in hand by the time it meets, giving it a clearer perspective.Homebuilders, “Stay-At-Home” Stocks Among June Earnings ReportsThat’s a mouthful about the Fed, inflation, jobs, and yields. What about the corporate world?As we emerge from a Q1 earnings season where the average S&P 500 company recorded earnings per share growth of nearly 52%, according to Factset, you might think earnings aren’t a big calendar item in June. That’s only partially true. While we won’t see a big crush of earnings reports, there are some key ones to watch, especially in the home building sector where both Lennar and KB Home are expected to report during the month.The housing market has been red hot, so a couple of April data points that missed analysts’ expectations (existing home sales and housing starts) might not be too big a deal. Having said that, the economy’s reopening could take peoples’ attention away from home buying and give strength to companies that focus on experiences rather than products. It’s possible some of the strength in housing and home improvement got pulled forward by the pandemic, just as we saw demand for internet conferences and home exercise equipment pulled forward. Keep an eye on what LEN and KBH say about demand when they report.Zoom Video , Kroger , Chewy , and Slack are some other companies whose businesses saw a big impact from Covid and release earnings in June. Most of them benefitted from people staying at home, questions remain over how much of their recent growth in sales has been sustainable vs. “demand pulled forward.” Many of their shares have lost ground and investors are eager to hear how they plan to keep the fizz bubbling post-Covid. Meanwhile, Tech earnings are a bit scarce in the month ahead, but Oracle is expected to be on the June release calendar.Keeping Watch on Crypto, VolatilityLike it or not, cryptocurrency could also help determine the market’s direction in June. It seemed like bitcoin set some of the momentum in late May, though that’s not a permanent indicator by any stretch of the imagination. However, when the news flow gets quiet and people start looking for indicators on how to trade, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been something many investors watch. The question is whether the stock market is starting to divorce itself more from cryptocurrency after huge swings in bitcoin prices recently.Volatility is another metric to watch. The Cboe Volatility Index(VIX) hung around near 20 in late May after a month where it seldom went below 18 or above 25. VIX typically spends a long time trading in specific ranges, so the next thing to check is whether the current range holds or if it steps up or down. A move higher in volatility, especially any prolonged stays above 25, would presumably reflect mounting investor uncertainty and worries about what’s ahead. If VIX falls below 20 and stays there awhile, it could point to a quiet summer.We haven’t mentioned Covid so far except in passing. That’s a good thing, because it means it’s not front and center the way it once was. As of late May, the U.S. seemed to be on very good footing thanks to vaccinations, with case counts falling to the lowest daily levels in nearly a year. No one knows if this will continue, but we can be hopeful.We can also hope that the current devastating impact of Covid in parts of Asia slows down in the month ahead. Right now, it appears that the situation there might be putting a bit of pressure on the blazing commodity markets amid worries about overseas demand for products like crude and copper. China also tried to clamp down on commodity prices in late May, saying it will move to reduce speculation.We started with inflation, so might as well end with it. The commodities market is another aspect of pricing pressure, especially for companies in the Materials, Information Technology, Transport, and Industrial sectors. Costs rose sharply so far this year for many of the core products they use, but if commodities continue to level off or even fall in June, that could relieve some of the pressure on companies and the Fed. Whether that happens could be determined by progress against the pandemic the next few weeks in places like India, Japan, and South Korea.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":856239714,"gmtCreate":1635180108958,"gmtModify":1635180110874,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>gogogo 1k","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>gogogo 1k","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$gogogo 1k","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ee7c17adec6b113bf81e83e0a7a9fe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856239714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153034351,"gmtCreate":1624984519473,"gmtModify":1633946150549,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>:)))))))","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>:)))))))","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$:)))))))","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b91412f6703c6ee2baeb5c018dc93d3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153034351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112044869,"gmtCreate":1622831114351,"gmtModify":1634097573035,"author":{"id":"3579784300187475","authorId":"3579784300187475","name":"Jarenng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c8245ce558dbd1566093156fae9c877","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579784300187475","idStr":"3579784300187475"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>sell all these","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>sell all these","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$sell all these","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f47e650f1032ddfe16afab63175012","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112044869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}