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Owlnayl

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2021-06-25

Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-26

Buy the dip!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-26

Pleaseeeee ok

Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

NIO TTM

NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>

2021-06-27

💁🏻‍♂️💁🏻‍♂️

Tesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote>

2021-06-26

Nvm give me r

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

Confused by the fed

Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Give me t

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624680481,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132692662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132692662","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.In response to the recall, Tesla said ","content":"<p>Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.</p><p><blockquote>据中国国家市场监督管理总局消息，近日，特斯拉备案了召回计划，决定从即日起召回部分车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉决定召回2019年1月12日至2019年11月27日期间生产的35665辆进口Model 3。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>同时，特斯拉将召回2019年12月19日至2021年6月7日生产的部分国产Model 3，共计211256辆；2021年1月1日至2021年6月7日共生产38599辆国产Model Y。</blockquote></p><p> Due to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>由于本次召回范围内车辆的主动巡航控制系统存在问题，在以下情况下，驾驶员容易误启动主动巡航功能：当车辆处于D挡时，驾驶员试图通过再次推动右操纵杆来换挡；当车辆急转弯时，驾驶员误触并移动右操纵杆等。主动巡航控制误启动后，如果车辆设定的巡航速度不是当前速度，且当前速度低于设定速度，车辆就会加速到设定速度，导致车速突然增加，影响驾驶员的预期，导致车辆操控误判。极端情况下可能导致车辆碰撞，存在安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将通过OTA技术为召回车辆免费升级主动巡航控制软件，用户无需到店即可完成软件升级；对于无法通过OTA技术召回的车辆，特斯拉（北京）有限公司和特斯拉（上海）有限公司将通过特斯拉服务中心联系相关用户，免费为车辆升级主动巡航控制软件，以消除安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> In response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.</p><p><blockquote>针对此次召回，特斯拉6月26日表示，对于本次召回范围内的车辆（Model 3/Model Y），由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活，极端情况下存在安全隐患。特斯拉主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。用户无需到店完成OTA。特斯拉表示，对召回造成的不便表示歉意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-26 12:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.</p><p><blockquote>据中国国家市场监督管理总局消息，近日，特斯拉备案了召回计划，决定从即日起召回部分车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉决定召回2019年1月12日至2019年11月27日期间生产的35665辆进口Model 3。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>同时，特斯拉将召回2019年12月19日至2021年6月7日生产的部分国产Model 3，共计211256辆；2021年1月1日至2021年6月7日共生产38599辆国产Model Y。</blockquote></p><p> Due to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>由于本次召回范围内车辆的主动巡航控制系统存在问题，在以下情况下，驾驶员容易误启动主动巡航功能：当车辆处于D挡时，驾驶员试图通过再次推动右操纵杆来换挡；当车辆急转弯时，驾驶员误触并移动右操纵杆等。主动巡航控制误启动后，如果车辆设定的巡航速度不是当前速度，且当前速度低于设定速度，车辆就会加速到设定速度，导致车速突然增加，影响驾驶员的预期，导致车辆操控误判。极端情况下可能导致车辆碰撞，存在安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将通过OTA技术为召回车辆免费升级主动巡航控制软件，用户无需到店即可完成软件升级；对于无法通过OTA技术召回的车辆，特斯拉（北京）有限公司和特斯拉（上海）有限公司将通过特斯拉服务中心联系相关用户，免费为车辆升级主动巡航控制软件，以消除安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> In response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.</p><p><blockquote>针对此次召回，特斯拉6月26日表示，对于本次召回范围内的车辆（Model 3/Model Y），由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活，极端情况下存在安全隐患。特斯拉主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。用户无需到店完成OTA。特斯拉表示，对召回造成的不便表示歉意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132692662","content_text":"Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.\nTesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.\nMeanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.\nDue to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.\nTesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.\nIn response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124101610,"gmtCreate":1624751036730,"gmtModify":1633949173578,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124101610","repostId":"2145657710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2145657710","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1624390489,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2145657710?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 03:34","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus<blockquote>特斯拉前副总法律顾问 Lynn Miller 加入自动卡车运输技术公司 Plus 的执行团队</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145657710","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Au","content":"<p><html><body>June 22 (Reuters) - :Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>6 月 22 日（路透社）——特斯拉前副总法律顾问林恩·米勒 (Lynn Miller) 加入自动卡车运输技术公司 Plus 的执行团队。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus<blockquote>特斯拉前副总法律顾问 Lynn Miller 加入自动卡车运输技术公司 Plus 的执行团队</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus<blockquote>特斯拉前副总法律顾问 Lynn Miller 加入自动卡车运输技术公司 Plus 的执行团队</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1086160438\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">T-Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-23 03:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>June 22 (Reuters) - :Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).</p><p><blockquote><html><body>6 月 22 日（路透社）——特斯拉前副总法律顾问林恩·米勒 (Lynn Miller) 加入自动卡车运输技术公司 Plus 的执行团队。((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;))</body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","BGC":"BGC GROUP","TISI":"Team Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.trkd.thomsonreuters.com","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145657710","content_text":"June 22 (Reuters) - :Lynn Miller, Former Deputy General Counsel At Tesla, Joins Executive Team Of Autonomous Trucking Technology Company Plus. ((Reuters.Briefs@Thomsonreuters.Com;)).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TISI":1,"TSLA":0.9,"BGC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124101147,"gmtCreate":1624751021489,"gmtModify":1633949173823,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ooof","listText":"Ooof","text":"Ooof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124101147","repostId":"1143759096","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143759096","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624371721,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143759096?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143759096","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,","content":"<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌逾5%，蔚来跌逾3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后全面定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，中国电动汽车企业的股价飙升，在很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）上个月上涨了近 38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）上涨了 45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近 58%。现在，虽然这三家公司公布的 5 月份交付量好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量都比 4 月份有所下降，小鹏汽车的销量也略有增长，但考虑到半导体短缺困扰了汽车行业，销量数据可能并没有预期的那么糟糕。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的产量。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量将达到 14,500 至 15,500 辆，高端环比增长 22%。该公司表示，鉴于 Li One SUV 升级版的订单强于预期，因此对实际数量将超过指导值持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着 6 月份可能会交付创纪录的 8,200 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平上值得买入吗？虽然增长前景确实强劲，但按照目前的估值，这些股票似乎并不便宜。蔚来的远期收入为 14 倍，理想汽车的远期收入为 9 倍，小鹏汽车的远期收入约为 16 倍。电动汽车估值的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储现在显然正在考虑在 2023 年而不是 2024 年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车最糟糕的半导体危机结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）提供的 5 月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来 5 月份共交付了 6,711 辆汽车，比 4 月份下降了 5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约 10%，达到 5,686 辆，尽管这一数字低于 1 月份 6,015 辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2 倍至 6 倍），但快速增长公司的连续数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里开始变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着该公司 6 月份的交付量可能高达 8,200 辆，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，但蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场占据一席之地。蔚来股价在周二的交易中上涨了近 10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近上涨，但在当前水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。今年迄今为止，蔚来股价仍下跌约 20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约 22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>概述三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自 1 月初以来，其股价均下跌了约 30%。那么这些股票在回调后对比如何呢？虽然蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然高于理想汽车，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>比较主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车企业的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的，交易价格约为远期收入的 10.5 倍。根据普遍估计，今年的收入可能会增长超过 110%。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特的创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也更受欢迎，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021 年第一季度的毛利率为 19.5%，高于一年前的负 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为 2021 年收入预计的 10 倍。根据普遍估计，销售增长预计将是这三家公司中最强劲的，今年增长超过 150%。除了更高的预计增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者还给予该公司溢价。小鹏目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。虽然小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，比第一季度上升至约 11%，而一年前则为负水平，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为 2021 年预计收入的 6 倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至 2020 年第四季度，毛利率为 17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是因为该公司专注于单一产品--Li Xiang ONE，这是一款电动 SUV，也配备了小型汽油发动机，同时也是因为理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车如何比较</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的 50% 以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到 2025 年，中国销售的所有新车中约有 25% 是电动汽车，而目前这一比例约为 5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在其上海新工厂的生产推动下成为中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的美国上市中国电动汽车公司也越来越受到关注。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。分析的部分内容总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏的业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供三款高端电动SUV：ES8、ES6和EC6，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务 (BaaS)，该技术允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。虽然该公司已经扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约 5000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程式电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国有限。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效--其售价约为 4.6 万美元的 Li ONE SUV 在 2020 年 9 月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的 SUV。新能源细分市场包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括 G3 SUV 和 P7 四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，大致定位为特斯拉 Model Y SUV 和 Model 3 轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3 的基本版补贴后起价约为 22,000 美元。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已经开始在广东省自己的工厂生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在 2019 年交付了约 1.3 万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车交付了约 1000 辆汽车，考虑到它去年年底才开始生产。蔚来今年的交付量可能接近 4 万辆左右，而理想汽车和小鹏汽车的交付量可能达到 2.5 万辆左右，其中理想汽车的交付量增幅最大。2019 年，蔚来的收入为 11 亿美元，而理想汽车约为 4000 万美元，小鹏约为 3.3 亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长 95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约 120%。这三家公司仍然严重亏损，因为与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高。2019 年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在 2020 年大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年 10 月 28 日，蔚来的市值约为 370 亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约 7 倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于 8 月左右在美国上市，希望利用飙升的估值，市值分别约为 150 亿美元和 140 亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为 2020 年收入的 15 倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为 12 倍，而小鹏的交易价格约为 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能会押注这些公司将继续在国内市场发展壮大，同时利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及中国的电池和汽车零部件供应商生态系统，最终在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用。在这三家公司中，考虑到其稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，蔚来可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约 2020 年收入的 12 倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通运输的未来，但选择合适的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可能是推动电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in morning trading. Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes<blockquote>电动汽车股票在早盘交易中下跌。中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨和加息计划后全面定价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 22)&nbsp;EV stocks fell in morning trading.&nbsp;Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%,&nbsp;LI&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>（6月22日）电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉跌0.33%，小鹏跌逾5%，蔚来跌逾3%，理想跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a423484cc524b2f71e91b83e759455a9\" tg-width=\"289\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes,</b>&nbsp;<b>According&nbsp;To&nbsp;Forbes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车：中国电动汽车股票在近期上涨、计划加息后全面定价，</b> <b>据福布斯报道。</b></blockquote></p><p> The stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，中国电动汽车企业的股价飙升，在很大程度上扭转了今年早些时候抛售的影响。蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）上个月上涨了近 38%，理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）上涨了 45%，小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）飙升近 58%。现在，虽然这三家公司公布的 5 月份交付量好坏参半，蔚来和理想汽车的交付量都比 4 月份有所下降，小鹏汽车的销量也略有增长，但考虑到半导体短缺困扰了汽车行业，销量数据可能并没有预期的那么糟糕。相比之下，通用汽车和福特等主要汽车制造商不得不暂时闲置或缩减几家工厂的产量。</blockquote></p><p> The outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司提供的前景也强于预期，让投资者相信半导体短缺最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。理想汽车预计第二季度交付量将达到 14,500 至 15,500 辆，高端环比增长 22%。该公司表示，鉴于 Li One SUV 升级版的订单强于预期，因此对实际数量将超过指导值持乐观态度。蔚来还重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着 6 月份可能会交付创纪录的 8,200 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Now are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>现在这些股票在当前水平上值得买入吗？虽然增长前景确实强劲，但按照目前的估值，这些股票似乎并不便宜。蔚来的远期收入为 14 倍，理想汽车的远期收入为 9 倍，小鹏汽车的远期收入约为 16 倍。电动汽车估值的近期威胁包括通胀上升和美联储最近的评论，美联储现在显然正在考虑在 2023 年而不是 2024 年加息两次。这可能会给包括电动汽车在内的高市盈率、高增长股票带来压力。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[6/2/2021]中国电动汽车最糟糕的半导体危机结束了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车巨头蔚来汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所代码：XPEV）提供的 5 月份交付数据好坏参半，因为它们继续受到当前半导体短缺的影响。虽然蔚来 5 月份共交付了 6,711 辆汽车，比 4 月份下降了 5.5%，但小鹏汽车上个月的交付量增长了约 10%，达到 5,686 辆，尽管这一数字低于 1 月份 6,015 辆的月销量峰值。尽管两家公司都报告了强劲的同比增长数据（2 倍至 6 倍），但快速增长公司的连续数据受到更密切的跟踪。</blockquote></p><p> However, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事情可能会从这里开始变得更好。例如，蔚来重申了 2021 年第二季度 21,000 至 22,000 辆汽车的交付指引，这意味着该公司 6 月份的交付量可能高达 8,200 辆，创下月度纪录。这可能表明全球汽车半导体短缺正在缓解，也表明尽管竞争日益激烈，但蔚来仍在中国电动汽车市场占据一席之地。蔚来股价在周二的交易中上涨了近 10%，而小鹏汽车的股价在报告发布后上涨了约 8%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近上涨，但在当前水平上，这些股票可能仍然值得考虑。今年迄今为止，蔚来股价仍下跌约 20%，而小鹏汽车则下跌约 22%。请参阅我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>概述三家在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务和估值指标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[5/21/2021]中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.</p><p><blockquote>在美国上市的中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）今年表现不佳，自 1 月初以来，其股价均下跌了约 30%。那么这些股票在回调后对比如何呢？虽然蔚来和小鹏汽车的价格仍然高于理想汽车，但它们的较高估值可能有几个原因。这里有更多关于这些公司的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Our analysis&nbsp;<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>&nbsp;compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.</p><p><blockquote>我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>比较主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车企业的财务业绩和估值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来仍然是这三家公司中估值最高的，交易价格约为远期收入的 10.5 倍。根据普遍估计，今年的收入可能会增长超过 110%。鉴于该公司广泛的产品组合（市场上已经有三款车型）、电池更换等独特的创新、全球扩张计划以及对自动驾驶的投资，长期增长也可能保持强劲。蔚来品牌也更受欢迎，该公司被视为特斯拉在华最直接的竞争对手。2021 年第一季度的毛利率为 19.5%，高于一年前的负 12%。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的交易价格约为 2021 年收入预计的 10 倍。根据普遍估计，销售增长预计将是这三家公司中最强劲的，今年增长超过 150%。除了更高的预计增长外，由于该公司在自动驾驶领域的进展，投资者还给予该公司溢价。小鹏目前销售G3 SUV和P7轿车，其新款P5紧凑型轿车可能会在今年晚些时候上路。虽然小鹏汽车的毛利率有所改善，比第一季度上升至约 11%，而一年前则为负水平，但仍低于蔚来的毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车的交易价格仅为 2021 年预计收入的 6 倍，是三家公司中最低的。今年的收入可能会大约翻一番，截至 2020 年第四季度，毛利率为 17.5%（该公司尚未报告第一季度业绩）。估值较低可能是因为该公司专注于单一产品--Li Xiang ONE，这是一款电动 SUV，也配备了小型汽油发动机，同时也是因为理想汽车在自动驾驶技术方面落后于竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>[10/30/2020]蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车如何比较</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysis<b>Nio, Xpeng &amp; Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?</b>we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车领域正在蓬勃发展，中国制造商占全球电动汽车交付量的 50% 以上。中国对电动汽车的需求可能会保持强劲，因为中国政府希望到 2025 年，中国销售的所有新车中约有 25% 是电动汽车，而目前这一比例约为 5%。[1]虽然特斯拉在其上海新工厂的生产推动下成为中国豪华电动汽车市场的领导者，但蔚来、小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）和理想汽车（纳斯达克股票代码：LI）这三家相对年轻的美国上市中国电动汽车公司也越来越受到关注。在我们的分析<b>蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车：中国电动汽车股票如何比较？</b>我们比较了主要在美国上市的中国电动汽车公司的财务业绩和估值。分析的部分内容总结如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview Of Nio, Li Auto &amp; Xpeng’s Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏的业务概述</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来成立于2014年，目前提供三款高端电动SUV：ES8、ES6和EC6，起价约为5万美元。该公司正在致力于开发自动驾驶技术，并提供其他独特的创新，例如电池即服务 (BaaS)，该技术允许客户订阅汽车电池，而不是预先付费。虽然该公司已经扩大了生产规模，但也并非没有挑战，去年在接到多起火灾报告后，该公司召回了约 5000 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Li Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车销售增程式电动汽车，本质上是电动汽车，也有一个小型汽油发动机，可以为电池产生额外的电力。这减少了对电动汽车充电基础设施的需求，而电动汽车充电基础设施目前在中国有限。该公司的混合动力战略似乎正在取得成效--其售价约为 4.6 万美元的 Li ONE SUV 在 2020 年 9 月成为中国新能源汽车领域最畅销的 SUV。新能源细分市场包括燃料电池、电动和插电式混合动力汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Xpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车生产和销售包括 G3 SUV 和 P7 四门轿车在内的高端电动汽车，大致定位为特斯拉 Model Y SUV 和 Model 3 轿车的竞争对手，尽管它们的价格更实惠，G3 的基本版补贴后起价约为 22,000 美元。G3 SUV是2019年中国电动SUV销量前三名。虽然该公司于2018年底开始生产，最初是通过与一家老牌汽车制造商达成协议，但它已经开始在广东省自己的工厂生产。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Have The Deliveries, Revenues &amp; Margins Trended</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交付量、收入和利润率的趋势如何</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&amp;D and SG&amp;A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来2019年交付了约2.1万辆汽车，高于2018年的约1.1万辆。相比之下，小鹏汽车在 2019 年交付了约 1.3 万辆汽车，理想汽车汽车交付了约 1000 辆汽车，考虑到它去年年底才开始生产。蔚来今年的交付量可能接近 4 万辆左右，而理想汽车和小鹏汽车的交付量可能达到 2.5 万辆左右，其中理想汽车的交付量增幅最大。2019 年，蔚来的收入为 11 亿美元，而理想汽车约为 4000 万美元，小鹏约为 3.3 亿美元。蔚来今年的收入可能增长 95%，而小鹏汽车的收入可能增长约 120%。这三家公司仍然严重亏损，因为与研发和SG&amp;A相关的成本相对于收入仍然很高。2019 年，蔚来的净利润率为-195%，理想汽车的利润率约为-860%，而小鹏的利润率为-160%。然而，随着销量的回升，利润率可能会在 2020 年大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.</p><p><blockquote>截至 2020 年 10 月 28 日，蔚来的市值约为 370 亿美元，由于投资者对电动汽车股票的兴趣激增，其股价今年迄今上涨了约 7 倍。理想汽车和小鹏汽车均于 8 月左右在美国上市，希望利用飙升的估值，市值分别约为 150 亿美元和 140 亿美元。相对而言，蔚来的交易价格约为 2020 年收入的 15 倍，理想汽车的交易价格约为 12 倍，而小鹏的交易价格约为 20 倍。</blockquote></p><p> While valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.</p><p><blockquote>虽然估值肯定很高，但投资者可能会押注这些公司将继续在国内市场发展壮大，同时利用中国相对低成本的制造业以及中国的电池和汽车零部件供应商生态系统，最终在全球电动汽车领域发挥更大的作用。在这三家公司中，考虑到其稍长的业绩记录、较高的收入以及对电池更换和自动驾驶等技术的投资，蔚来可能是更安全的选择。考虑到其快速增长（由混合动力系统的采用推动）以及相对有吸引力的估值（约 2020 年收入的 12 倍），理想汽车看起来也很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing in<b>Electric Vehicle Component Supplier Stocks</b>can be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车是交通运输的未来，但选择合适的电动汽车股票可能很棘手。投资于<b>电动汽车零部件供应商库存</b>可能是推动电动汽车市场增长的一个很好的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143759096","content_text":"(June 22) EV stocks fell in morning trading. Tesla fell 0.33%, XPeng fell over 5%, NIO fell over 3%, LI fell about 2%.\n\nLi Auto, Nio, Xpeng: Chinese EV Stocks Fully Priced Following Recent Rally, Planned Rate Hikes, According To Forbes.\nThe stocks of Chinese EV players have surged over the last month, largely reversing the effects of the sell-off seen earlier this year.Nio stock(NYSE: NIO) has rallied by almost 38% over the last month, Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) gained 45%, and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) surged by almost 58%. Now although the three companies posted mixed delivery figures for the month of May, with Nio and Li Auto both posting declines in their deliveries versus April, and Xpeng growing sales marginally, the sales numbers likely weren’t as bad as expected, considering the semiconductor shortage that has roiled the auto industry. In contrast, major auto players such as GM and Ford had to temporarily idle or scale back production at several plants.\nThe outlook provided by the three companies was also stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the worst of the semiconductor shortage is likely over. Li Auto has guided to 14,500 to 15,500 deliveries for the second quarter, a sequential increase of 22% on the upper end. The company says that it is optimistic that actual numbers will exceed guidance, given that it is seeing stronger than expected orders for the upgraded version of its Li One SUV. Nio also reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver a record 8,200 vehicles in June.\nNow are the stocks a buy at current levels? While the growth outlook is certainly strong, the stocks don’t exactly appear cheap at current valuations. Nio trades at 14x forward revenue, while Li Auto trades at 9x, and Xpeng trades at about 16x. Near-term threats to EV valuations include higher inflation and recent commentary by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is now apparently looking at two interest rate hikes in 2023, instead of 2024. This could put pressure on high-multiple, high-growth stocks, including EV names. In our analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? we compare the financial performance and valuations of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\n[6/2/2021] Is The Worst Of The Semiconductor Crunch Over For Chinese EVs?\nChinese electric vehicle majorsNio (NYSE: NIO)and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) provided mixed delivery figures for the month of May, as they continued to be impacted by the current shortage of semiconductors. While Nio delivered a total of 6,711 vehicles in May, down 5.5% from April, Xpeng was able to grow deliveries by about 10% over the last month to 5,686 units, although the number is below peak monthly sales of 6,015 vehicles witnessed in January. Although both companies reported robust year-over-year growth numbers (2x to 6x), the sequential figures are more closely tracked for fast-growing companies.\nHowever, things are probably going to get better from here. Nio, for instance, reiterated its Q2 2021 delivery guidance of 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, implying that it could deliver as many as 8,200 vehicles in June, a monthly record. This is likely an indicator that the global automotive semiconductor shortage is easing off, and also a sign that Nio is holding its own in the Chinese EV market, despite mounting competition. Nio stock rallied by almost 10% in Tuesday’s trading, while Xpeng’s stock was up by about 8% following the report.\nDespite the recent rally, the stocks might still be worth considering at current levels. Nio stock remains down by about 20% year-to-date while Xpeng is down by about 22%. See our analysis on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?for an overview of the financial and valuation metrics of the three U.S. listed Chinese EV players.\n[5/21/2021] How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?\nU.S. listed Chinese EV players Nio (NYSE: NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) have underperformed this year, with their stocks down by roughly 30% each, since early January. So how do these stocks compare post the correction? While Nio and Xpeng remain pricier compared to Li Auto, they probably justify their higher valuation for a couple of reasons. Here is a bit more about these companies.\nOur analysis Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare? compares the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players.\nNio remains the most richly valued of the three companies, trading at about 10.5x forward revenue. Revenues are likely to grow by over 110% this year, per consensus estimates. Longer-term growth is also likely to remain strong, given the company’s wide product portfolio (it already has three models on the market), its unique innovations such as battery swapping, its global expansion plans, and investments into autonomous driving. Nio brand also has a lot more buzz, with the company viewed as the most direct rival to Tesla in China. Gross margins stood at 19.5% in Q1 2021, up from a negative 12% a year ago.\nXpeng trades at about 10x projected 2021 revenues. Sales growth is projected to be the strongest among the three companies, rising by over 150% this year, per consensus estimates. Besides its higher projected growth, investors have been assigning a premium to the company due to its progress in the autonomous driving space. Xpeng currently sells the G3 SUV and the P7 sedan and its new P5 compact sedan is likely to hit the roads later this year. Although Xpeng’s gross margins have improved, rising to about 11% over Q1, versus negative levels a year ago, they are still below Nio’s margins.\nLi Auto trades at just 6x projected 2021 revenues, the lowest of the three companies. Revenues are likely to roughly double this year, with gross margins standing at 17.5% as of Q4 2020 (the company has yet to report Q1 results). The lower valuation is likely due to the company’s focus on a single product - the Li Xiang ONE, an electric SUV that also has a small gasoline engine and also due to the fact that Li Auto is behind rivals in terms of autonomous driving tech.\n[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Compare\nThe Chinese electric vehicle space is booming, with China-based manufacturers accounting for over 50% of global EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is likely to remain robust as the Chinese government wants about 25% of all new cars sold in the country to be electric by 2025, up from roughly 5% at present.[1]While Tesla is a leader in the Chinese luxury EV market driven by production at its new Shanghai facility, Nio, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) - three relatively young U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players, have also been gaining traction. In our analysisNio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese EV Stocks Compare?we compare the financial performance and valuation of the major U.S. listed Chinese electric vehicle players. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.\nOverview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Business\nNio, which was founded in 2014, currently offers three premium electric SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, which are priced starting at about $50k. The company is working on developing self-driving technology and also offers other unique innovations such as Battery as a Service (BaaS) - which allows customers to subscribe for car batteries, rather than paying for them upfront. While the company has scaled up production, it hasn’t come without challenges, as it recalled about 5,000 vehicles last year after reports of multiple fires.\nLi Auto sells Extended-Range Electric Vehicles, which are essentially EVs that also have a small gasoline engine that can generate additional electric power for the battery. This reduces the need for EV-charging infrastructure, which is currently limited in China. The company’s hybrid strategy appears to be paying off - with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 - ranking as the top-selling SUV in the new energy vehicle segment in China in September 2020. The new energy segment includes fuel cell, electric, and plug-in hybrid vehicles.\nXpeng produces and sells premium electric vehicles including the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, which are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, although they are more affordable, with the basic version of the G3 starting at about $22,000 post subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the top 3 Electric SUVs in terms of sales in China in 2019. While the company began production in late 2018, initially via a deal with an established automaker, it has started production at its own factory in the Guangdong province.\nHow Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended\nNio delivered about 21k vehicles in 2019, up from about 11k vehicles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13k vehicles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k vehicles, considering that it began production only late last year. While Nio’s deliveries this year could approach about 40k units, Li Auto and Xpeng are likely to deliver around 25k vehicles with Li Auto seeing the highest growth. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, compared to about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are likely to grow 95% this year, while Xpeng’s Revenues are likely to grow by about 120%. All three companies remain deeply lossmaking as costs related to R&D and SG&A remain high relative to Revenues. Nio’s Net Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% while Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. However, margins are likely to improve sharply in 2020, as volumes pick up.\nValuation\nNio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its stock price rising by about 7x year-to-date due to surging investor interest in EV stocks. Li Auto and Xpeng, which were both listed in the U.S. around August as they looked to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative basis, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, while Xpeng trades at about 20x.\nWhile valuations are certainly high, investors are likely betting that these companies will continue to grow in the domestic market, while eventually playing a larger role in the global EV space leveraging China’s relatively low-cost manufacturing, and the country’s ecosystem of battery and auto parts suppliers. Of the three companies, Nio might be the safer bet, considering its slightly longer track record, higher Revenues, and investments in technology such as battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto also looks attractive considering its rapid growth - driven by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains - and relatively attractive valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.\nElectric vehicles are the future of transportation, but picking the right EV stocks can be tricky. Investing inElectric Vehicle Component Supplier Stockscan be a good alternative to play the growth in the EV market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125672617,"gmtCreate":1624673357039,"gmtModify":1633949774365,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125672617","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125672370,"gmtCreate":1624673341490,"gmtModify":1633949774489,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pleaseeeee ok","listText":"Pleaseeeee ok","text":"Pleaseeeee ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125672370","repostId":"1152075524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152075524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624666599,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152075524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152075524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(N","content":"<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152075524","content_text":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.\nWe're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.\nBed Bath & Beyond\nBed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBed Bath & Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath & Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.\nInvestors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath & Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.\nMicron Technology\nChipmaker Micron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.\nTo be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.\nThe key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance\nLastly,Walgreen Boots Alliance(NASDAQ:WBA) will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.\nInvestors will watch how Walgreens has done in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.\nWalgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.\nWatch out for surprises\nNews that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"WBA":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125676495,"gmtCreate":1624673328117,"gmtModify":1633949774735,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nvm give me r","listText":"Nvm give me r","text":"Nvm give me r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125676495","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125676212,"gmtCreate":1624673316636,"gmtModify":1633949774982,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"T pls","listText":"T pls","text":"T pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125676212","repostId":"2146036830","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122372167,"gmtCreate":1624600810159,"gmtModify":1633950658996,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122372167","repostId":"2146023710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122376403,"gmtCreate":1624600795002,"gmtModify":1633950659218,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122376403","repostId":"1141321696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122376163,"gmtCreate":1624600767852,"gmtModify":1633950659783,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122376163","repostId":"1180366049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122378743,"gmtCreate":1624600743682,"gmtModify":1633950660028,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice t pls","listText":"Nice t pls","text":"Nice t pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122378743","repostId":"2146025387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122378215,"gmtCreate":1624600727137,"gmtModify":1633950660271,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122378215","repostId":"2146027836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128266183,"gmtCreate":1624519199242,"gmtModify":1634004941100,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Give me t","listText":"Give me t","text":"Give me t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128266183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129353406,"gmtCreate":1624361123105,"gmtModify":1634007311253,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sp500 lookin scary these days","listText":"Sp500 lookin scary these days","text":"Sp500 lookin scary these days","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129353406","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129353305,"gmtCreate":1624361085907,"gmtModify":1634007311943,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not bad","listText":"Not bad","text":"Not bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129353305","repostId":"1145563175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145563175","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624359605,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145563175?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145563175","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into conte","content":"<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet&nbsp;<b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky&nbsp;<b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy&nbsp;<i>every</i>&nbsp;traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the&nbsp;<i>outflow</i>&nbsp;of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than&nbsp;<i>bogus</i>&nbsp;US Treasuries are&nbsp;<i>bloated</i>&nbsp;U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is&nbsp;<i>contextually</i>&nbsp;troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage)&nbsp;<i>not</i>&nbsp;making the headlines yet&nbsp;<i>now</i>&nbsp;making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into&nbsp;<i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a&nbsp;<i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the&nbsp;<i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy&nbsp;<i>today</i>&nbsp;(with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s&nbsp;<i>Blitzkrieg</i>&nbsp;or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like&nbsp;<i>you</i>&nbsp;to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real&nbsp;<i>casus belli</i>&nbsp;(reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was&nbsp;<i>already</i>&nbsp;in a debt crisis long&nbsp;<i>before</i>&nbsp;the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and&nbsp;<b>tanking currencies</b>&nbsp;try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Mad Market & Six Cold Reality-Checks<blockquote>一个疯狂的市场和六个冷酷的现实检查</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.<b>Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.</b></p><p><blockquote>核实政客、头条新闻和央行行长的事实是一回事。<b>把他们的“事实”放在上下文中是另一回事。</b></blockquote></p><p> Toward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.</p><p><blockquote>为此，至关重要的是要将所谓的 “经济增长 ”、国债市场增长、股市增长、国内生产总值增长，当然还有金价增长置于更清晰的视角，尽管全球背景十分疯狂，但这些背景并没有得到明确报道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 1: The Rising Growth Headline</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 1：增长头条上升</b></blockquote></p><p> Recently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.</p><p><blockquote>最近，拜登的经济顾问贾里德-伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）又一次头条新闻吹嘘说，美国的增长速度比他们的贸易伙伴快得多，这让群众平静下来。</blockquote></p><p> Fair enough.</p><p><blockquote>很公平。</blockquote></p><p> But given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…</p><p><blockquote>但鉴于美国正面临历史记录中最大的赤字……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ac5ed804cb5613af2890f604dac56be\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> …such “growth” is not surprising.</p><p><blockquote>……这样的“增长”并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，以极端赤字支出为幌子吹嘘经济增长，就像一个被宠坏的孩子吹嘘用父亲的信用卡秘密购买的新保时捷一样： 只有在账单到来、汽车消失之前，它才会看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> In a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.</p><p><blockquote>在一个疯狂的金融世界里，至关重要的是要审视什么是增长，什么是价格发现的基本原则、债务水平或供求关系。</blockquote></p><p> In short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之： 由极端债务推动的 “增长 ”根本不是增长--它只是一辆买不起的跑车的表面光泽。</blockquote></p><p> And yet&nbsp;<b>the madness continues</b>…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.</p><p><blockquote>然而<b>疯狂仍在继续</b>……以美国国债市场为例。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 2: The Treasury “Market”?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 2：国债“市场”？</b></blockquote></p><p> How can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?</p><p><blockquote>自去年 2 月以来发行的 4.5 万亿美元债券中有 56% 是由美联储自己购买的，怎么会有人看涨期权美国国债市场呢？</blockquote></p><p> Sounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?</p><p><blockquote>听起来更像是内部操纵价格，而不是 “市场 ”，不是吗？</blockquote></p><p> Such context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.</p><p><blockquote>这样的背景赋予了 “喝自己的 Kool-aide ”的想法全新的含义，并应该冷静地提醒人们，国债，尤其是债券收益率，是伪装成信贷奥林匹克的僵尸。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.</p><p><blockquote>当然，美联储会假装这种 “支持 ”和他们的 “暂时性通胀 ”备忘录一样是暂时的，但大多数市场现实主义者早就明白，更多、更疯狂的债券收益率 “支持 ”是国债泡沫（和借据）像僵尸一样存活的唯一途径。</blockquote></p><p> In short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，财政部 “支持 ”、 “通融 ”或 “刺激 ”的更好措辞很简单： “生命支持”。</blockquote></p><p> With central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储等央行在遥远的未来继续创造法定货币，以将其不可持续的债务货币化，我们可以有把握地预见美元将进一步走弱，金价、矿业股和科技和工业股等关键风险资产将进一步走强。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 3: Deflation is back?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景3：通货紧缩又回来了？</b></blockquote></p><p> Hardly.</p><p><blockquote>几乎不。</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.</p><p><blockquote>上周鲍威尔、费舍尔和布拉德的口诛笔伐让市场怀疑美联储是否会在遥远的未来加息。</blockquote></p><p> The very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky&nbsp;<b>rather than “transitory”</b>and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔之所以提出这个问题，是因为美联储意识到通胀将是棘手的<b>而不是“短暂的”</b>因此，他们已经在假装自己是鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> But if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.</p><p><blockquote>但是，如果美联储加息是为了平息实际通胀而不是 “暂时性 ”通胀，市场和山姆大叔就会大发脾气。故事结束。</blockquote></p><p> As I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—<b>tanking markets or surging inflation.</b>Eventually, we foresee both.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在其他地方写过的：选择你的美联储毒药--<b>市场下滑或通胀飙升。</b>最终，我们预见到了两者。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，鲍威尔充分意识到通货膨胀率会有所下降，只会走高，因此他已经在中途使用语义学改变了规则，现在他说，他们不会 “允许 ”2% 的通货膨胀率，而是满足于 2% 的 “平均 ”通货膨胀率。</blockquote></p><p> Translated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>翻译成诚实的英语，这只是意味着预计更多的通货膨胀即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 4: Rising Stock Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 4：股市上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite reaching nosebleed levels which defy&nbsp;<i>every</i>&nbsp;traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管流鼻血的程度<i>每一</i>传统的估值上限，从开普比率和托宾比率到账面价值和自由现金流数据，头条新闻提醒我们，股票可以走得更高——而且确实可以。</blockquote></p><p> But context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.</p><p><blockquote>但背景和历史都提醒我们，泡沫越大，均值回归的下跌就越大。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1586e90684f7b8ae0525c04b1fa4bc7\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>No Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国库中没有宝藏 = 股票中充满空气</b></blockquote></p><p> Based upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.</p><p><blockquote>基于以上客观事实，我们现在知道，出现在美国国债拍卖中的唯一主要买家是美联储本身。</blockquote></p><p> This is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为世界其他地区（亚洲、欧洲等）不想要它们。</blockquote></p><p> The next question is “why”?</p><p><blockquote>下一个问题是“为什么”？</blockquote></p><p> The answer is multiple yet simple.</p><p><blockquote>答案是多重而简单的。</blockquote></p><p> First, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，尽管美国例外论是公开的神话，但其他国家的投资者实际上可以自己思考、阅读和计算，这意味着他们并不是盲目地信任美联储或其借据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Stated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，他们并不相信最近从联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）口中涌出的 “暂时性通胀 ”或 “强势美元 ”的说法。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀不仅在美国上升，在其他地方也在攀升--甚至在日本，尤其是在中国。这在很大程度上是因为美国通过贸易和财政赤字将其通货膨胀（和贬值的美元）输出到海外。</blockquote></p><p> Such deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the&nbsp;<i>outflow</i>&nbsp;of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.</p><p><blockquote>美国这种蓄意的通货膨胀出口让那些借钱给山姆大叔的国家（债权人）陷入了两难境地：他们要么 1) 让本国货币与美元一起升值（几乎没有乐趣），要么 2) 试图平息<i>流出</i>出口（贬值）美元，以防止本国货币进一步贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Option 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，方案2是更好的选择，这意味着外国投资者需要购买比名誉扫地的美国国债更具吸引力的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Sadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than&nbsp;<i>bogus</i>&nbsp;US Treasuries are&nbsp;<i>bloated</i>&nbsp;U.S. stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可悲的是，讽刺的是，但事实上，唯一比<i>假的</i>美国国债是<i>臃肿的</i>美国股票。</blockquote></p><p> In short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，定价过高的美国股票仍然是美国两害相权取其轻，因此外国人购买/将股票视为比主权债券更好的对冲美元贬值。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t believe me?</p><p><blockquote>不相信我？</blockquote></p><p> See for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:</p><p><blockquote>你自己看看——世界其他国家正在给美国股市泡沫增加大量空气：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc5b73212bd7c3126d6a130e88169139\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is&nbsp;<i>contextually</i>&nbsp;troublesome for a number of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这是<i>上下文</i>麻烦有很多原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).</p><p><blockquote>首先，这意味着美国的衰落已经从向世界其他地方抛售债券变成了向世界其他地方抛售股票（即中国……）。</blockquote></p><p> Longer term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，这仅仅意味着通过直接持股，外国人将慢慢拥有比美国更多的美国企业股份……</blockquote></p><p> As for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.</p><p><blockquote>至于曾经伟大的美国被外国买家慢慢掏空，不要责怪数据。责怪美联储和其他政策制定者（包括劳动力外包首席执行官）出卖美国，并假装债务可以通过神奇的（假）货币创造神奇地解决。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.</p><p><blockquote>当然，股票上涨超出理智、盈利和诚实的自由现金流数据的第二个讨厌的小问题是一种叫做波动性的东西——即市场晕船。</blockquote></p><p> Nothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.</p><p><blockquote>没有什么是直线的，包括美元和市场。会有波动。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，美元空头是四年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c420ec0af0df42eabb7a3d248da4db10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果美联储有机会试图缩减或加息，所有这些涌入美国股票的外币（上图）就会产生一个总是破裂的泡沫，就像前面提到的美元空头一样，受到挤压。</blockquote></p><p> That could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.</p><p><blockquote>随着外国人抛售股票以购买更多美元，这可能会导致美国股市大规模抛售。</blockquote></p><p> In short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，有很多不同的指针指向当前的股票泡沫，在未来一个月左右的时间内出现回调的可能性很大。</blockquote></p><p> The sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage)&nbsp;<i>not</i>&nbsp;making the headlines yet&nbsp;<i>now</i>&nbsp;making all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，这些针中最锋利的是美国保证金债务（即杠杆）的惊人水平<i>不</i>成为头条新闻<i>现在</i>创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021f71bd7e78a1c275a9c9d74691c525\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，每当保证金债务达到峰值（上图）时，市场很快就会暴跌，任何记得过去互联网和次级市场惨败的人都可以证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Just saying…</p><p><blockquote>只是说……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景 5：“飙升”GDP 增长的阴暗面</b></blockquote></p><p> The World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.</p><p><blockquote>世界银行最近成为头条新闻，预测全球GDP增长5.6%，为80年来最快。</blockquote></p><p> Good stuff, right?</p><p><blockquote>好东西，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> Well, not when placed into&nbsp;<i>context</i>…</p><p><blockquote>嗯，当放在<i>上下文</i>…</blockquote></p><p> The last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a&nbsp;<i>global world war</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们上一次看到5.6%的全球GDP增长是在<i>全球世界大战</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Obviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.</p><p><blockquote>显然，当世界处于全球军事废墟之中时，任何形式的增长都有可能从这样一个历史（和可怕）的基线 “激增 ”。</blockquote></p><p> Coming out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…</p><p><blockquote>二战结束后，包括美国在内的每个人都负债累累。毕竟，世界大战可以做到这一点……</blockquote></p><p> As the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着胜利和拯救文明的美国从那场战争中走出来，通过印钞、抑制债券收益率和刺激GDP增长来降低高贵但极端的债务杠杆化在一定程度上是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> What followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.</p><p><blockquote>接下来的至少是一个站得住脚的40年，在此期间，美国名义GDP比美国国债收益率高出500-800个基点。</blockquote></p><p> In short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，债券持有人受到了打击，但事业、危机和击败轴心国后的重建证明了这种牺牲是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> The same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如今情况却并非如此，因为债券持有者再次陷入一种新的异常现象，即GDP将大大（类似地）超过长期债券收益率。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Needless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，当前的政策制定者，正是那些把全球经济鸡舍扔进当前债务废墟堆的狐狸，喜欢把这归咎于COVID，而不是他们的浴室镜子。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the&nbsp;<i>Wehrmacht</i>, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy&nbsp;<i>today</i>&nbsp;(with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s&nbsp;<i>Blitzkrieg</i>&nbsp;or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.</p><p><blockquote>然而，具有讽刺意味的是，央行行长（相对于<i>德国国防军</i>日本帝国或意大利的墨索里尼）对全球经济造成了同样大的损害。<i>当今</i>（采取赤字政策和假装印钞机）作为德国的<i>闪电战</i>或者裕仁在 20 世纪 40 年代的万岁突袭。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?</p><p><blockquote>说到背景，我们真的可以或应该将一场全球流感（死亡人数375万）与一场全球战争（死亡人数8500万）进行比较吗？</blockquote></p><p> The policy makers would like&nbsp;<i>you</i>&nbsp;to think so.</p><p><blockquote>政策制定者希望<i>你</i>这么想。</blockquote></p><p> Folks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real&nbsp;<i>casus belli</i>&nbsp;(reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.</p><p><blockquote>像姆努钦（去年）或耶伦、鲍威尔和国际货币基金组织（今年）这样的人实际上都在试图说服自己和世界，对抗新冠病毒的战争是真实的<i>战争理由</i>（一场正当战争的理由）我们当前的债务困境——就其对金融世界的巨大影响而言，其范围与第二次世界大战相当。</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.</p><p><blockquote>但是，无论任何人对科维德 “战争 ”的看法或其可疑的政策反应如何，将其经济影响与第二次世界大战相提并论都是对历史和军事隐喻的侮辱。</blockquote></p><p> The simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was&nbsp;<i>already</i>&nbsp;in a debt crisis long&nbsp;<i>before</i>&nbsp;the first Corona headline of early 2020.</p><p><blockquote>简单、客观且经过数学验证的事实是，全球经济<i>已经</i>长期陷入债务危机<i>以前</i>2020年初的第一个电晕头条。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/173b90a9931417cc655b6129fc7dc38c\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Today, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.</p><p><blockquote>如今，美国债务占国内生产总值的比重已达到自那场悲惨的第二次世界大战以来从未见过的水平，而且预计还会更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e71ae4475b3449c8833ca918ddbd82\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> So, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你仍然认为美联储能够而且将会像上世纪 70 年代或 80 年代那样，有意义地加息以对抗明显的通货膨胀，请再想想。</blockquote></p><p> In the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.</p><p><blockquote>在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，美国债务与国内生产总值的比率为 30%。今天是 130%。</blockquote></p><p> Given this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种自我造成的（而不是科维德的）现实，美联储根本无力加息。周期。句号。</blockquote></p><p> But as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.</p><p><blockquote>但正如我的同事埃贡-冯-格雷尔茨（Egon von Greyerz）提醒的那样，这绝不意味着利率不能也不会上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.</p><p><blockquote>美联储（和其他央行）可能很强大，但它们不是神。简而言之，他们仅仅通过点击鼠标来 “控制 ”利率的能力是有限的。</blockquote></p><p> At some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.</p><p><blockquote>在某些时候，没有足够可信的假币来管理收益率曲线--尤其是在长期收益率曲线上。</blockquote></p><p> As more printed and&nbsp;<b>tanking currencies</b>&nbsp;try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.</p><p><blockquote>随着更多的印刷和<b>加注货币</b>试图购买更低的收益率和利率，最终整个实验失败。</blockquote></p><p> At that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.</p><p><blockquote>在那个关键时刻，利率飙升，通货膨胀抬起了丑陋的头，当世界其他地方都在盯着毫无价值的货币被滑稽的央行数字美元所取代时，央行行长们正在寻找自己以外的东西来指责。</blockquote></p><p> Wonderful…</p><p><blockquote>太棒了…</blockquote></p><p> <b>Context 6: That Barbaric Relic?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>背景6：那个野蛮的遗迹？</b></blockquote></p><p> What the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.</p><p><blockquote>上述通货膨胀和利率背景意味着，在未来几年，通货膨胀将走高，利率将走低（被迫/控制），直到利率和通货膨胀一起飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This further means that&nbsp;<i>real</i>&nbsp;rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>这进一步意味着<i>真的</i>未来几年，利率（即根据通货膨胀调整的利率）可能会低至-5%至-10%。</blockquote></p><p> Such negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>这样的负实际利率水平很容易超过 70 年代和 80 年代的水平，这意味着黄金（和白银）都喜欢负实际利率，但在这种完全债务扭曲的背景下，黄金（和白银）别无选择，只能上涨、上涨、下跌。</blockquote></p><p> How’s that for context?</p><p><blockquote>这对上下文有什么影响？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-mad-market-six-cold-reality-checks?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145563175","content_text":"Fact checking politicos, headlines and central bankers is one thing.Putting their \"facts\" into context is another.\nToward that end, it’s critical to place so-called “economic growth,” Treasury market growth, stock market growth, GDP growth and, of course, gold price growth into clearer perspective despite an insane global backdrop that is anything but clearly reported.\nContext 1: The Rising Growth Headline\nRecently, Biden’s economic advisor, Jared Bernstein, calmed the masses with yet another headline-making boast that the U.S. is “growing considerably faster” than their trading partners.\nFair enough.\nBut given that the U.S. is running the largest deficits on historical record…\n\n…such “growth” is not surprising.\nIn other words, bragging about growth on the back of extreme deficit spending is like a spoiled kid bragging about a new Porsche secretly purchased with his father’s credit card: It only looks good until the bill arrives and the car vanishes.\nIn a financial world gone mad, it’s critical to look under the hood of what passes for growth in particular or basic principles of price discovery, debt levels or supply and demand in general.\nIn short: “Growth” driven by extreme debt is not growth at all–it’s just the headline surface shine on a sports car one can’t afford.\nAnd yet the madness continues…Take the U.S. Treasury market, for example.\nContext 2: The Treasury “Market”?\nHow can anyone call the U.S. Treasury market a “market” when 56% of the $4.5T of bonds issued since last February have been bought by the Fed itself?\nSounds more like an insider price-fix than a “market,” no?\nSuch context gives an entirely new meaning to the idea of “drinking your own Kool-aide” and ought to be a cool reminder that Treasury bonds in general, and bond yields in particular, are zombies masquerading as credit Olympians.\nThe Fed, of course, will pretend that such “support” is as temporary as their “transitory inflation” meme, but most market realists understood long ago that more and crazier bond yield “support” is the only way for national debt bubbles (and IOU’s) to stay zombie-like alive.\nIn short, the better phrase for Treasury “support,” “accommodation,” or “stimulus” is simply: “Life Support.”\nWith central banks like the Fed continuing to create fiat currencies to monetize their unsustainable debt well into the distant future, we can safely foresee a further weakening of the USD and further strengthening of gold prices, mining stocks and key risk assets like tech and industrial stocks.\nContext 3: Deflation is back?\nHardly.\nLast week’s jaw-boning from Powell, Fisher and Bullard had the markets wondering if the Fed will be raising rates in the distant future.\nThe very fact that Powell raised the issue is because the Fed is realizing that inflation is going to be sticky rather than “transitory”and thus they are already pretending to pose as Hawkish.\nBut if the Fed raises rates to quell real rather than “transitory” inflation, the markets and Uncle Sam will go into a tantrum. End of story.\nAs I’ve written elsewhere: Pick your Fed poison—tanking markets or surging inflation.Eventually, we foresee both.\nMeanwhile, and fully aware that inflation, with some dips, is only going to trend higher, Powell is already using semantics to change the rules mid-game, now saying that rather than “allow” 2% inflation, they’ll settle for an “average” of 2%.\nTranslated into honest English, this just means expect more inflation around the corner.\nContext 4: Rising Stock Markets\nDespite reaching nosebleed levels which defy every traditional valuation ceiling, from CAPE ratios and Tobin ratios to book values and FCF data, the headlines remind us that stocks can go even higher—and they can indeed.\nBut context, as well as history, reminds us that the bigger the bubble the bigger the mean-reverting fall.\n\nNo Treasure in Treasuries = Lot’s of Air in Stocks\nBased upon the objective facts above, we now know that the only primary buyers showing up at U.S. Treasury auctions is the Fed itself.\nThis is because the rest of the world (Asia, Europe etc.) doesn’t want them.\nThe next question is “why”?\nThe answer is multiple yet simple.\nFirst, and despite the open myth of American Exceptionalism, investors in other countries can actually think, read and count for themselves, which means they’re not simply trusting the Fed—or its IOU’s– blindly.\nStated otherwise, they are not buying the “transitory inflation” or “strong USD” story pouring recently out of the FOMC mouthpieces.\nInflation is not only rising in the U.S., it’s also creeping up elsewhere—even in Japan, but especially in China. This is largely because the U.S. exports its inflation (and debased dollars) offshore via trade and fiscal deficits.\nSuch deliberate inflation exporting by the U.S. places those countries (creditors) that lent money to Uncle Sam into a dilemma: They can either 1) let their currencies inflate alongside the dollar (hardly fun), or 2) try to quell the outflow of exported (debased) US dollars to save their own currencies from further debasement.\nOption 2, of course, is the better option, which means foreign investors need to buy something more appealing than discredited U.S. Treasuries.\nSadly, ironically, and yet factually, the only assets better than bogus US Treasuries are bloated U.S. stocks.\nIn short, nosebleed-priced US stocks are still the lesser of the two US evils, and foreigners are therefore buying/seeing stocks as a better hedge against the debased USD than sovereign bonds.\nDon’t believe me?\nSee for yourself—the rest of the world is adding lots of air to the U.S. equity bubble:\nThis is contextually troublesome for a number of reasons.\nFirst, it means the declining US of A has gone from hocking its bonds to the rest of the world to hocking it stocks to the rest of the world (i.e., China…).\nLonger term, this simply means that via direct stock ownership, foreigners will slowly own more of corporate America than, well America…\nAs for this slow gutting of the once-great America to foreign buyers, don’t blame the data. Blame your Fed and other policy makers (including labor off-shoring CEO’s) for selling-out America and pretending debt can be magically solved with magical (fake) money creation.\nOf course, the second pesky little problem with stocks rising beyond the pale of sanity, earnings and honest FCF data is a thing called volatility—i.e., market seasickness.\nNothing goes in a straight line, including the dollar or the market. There will be swings.\nRight now, the short on the USD is the highest it has been in four years.\nYet if, by some chance, the Fed ever attempts to taper or raise rates, all those foreign dollars piling into U.S. stocks (above) create a bubble that always pops, as do the foregoing dollar shorts, which get squeezed.\nThat could cause a massive sell-off in U.S. equity markets as foreigners sell their stocks to buy more dollars.\nIn short, there’s a lot of different needles pointing at the current equity bubble, and a correction within the next month or so is more than likely.\nThe sharpest of those needles, by the way, is the appallingly comical level of U.S. margin debt (i.e. leverage) not making the headlines yet now making all-time highs.\nAs a reminder, whenever margin debt peaks (above), markets tank soon thereafter, as anyone who remembers the dot.com and sub-prime market fiascos of yore can attest.\nJust saying…\nContext 5: The Dark Side of “Surging” GDP Growth\nThe World Bank recently made its own headlines projecting 5.6% global GDP growth, the fastest seen in 80 years.\nGood stuff, right?\nWell, not when placed into context…\nThe last time we saw 5.6% global GDP growth was during a global world war.\nObviously, when the world is in a state of global military rubble, growth of any kind is likely to “surge” from such an historical (and horrific) baseline.\nComing out of World War II, everyone, including the U.S. was in debt. World wars, after all, can do that…\nAs the victorious and civilization-saving U.S. came out of that war, it made some justifiable sense to de-lever that noble yet extreme debt by printing money, repressing bond yields and stimulating GDP growth.\nWhat followed was at least a defendable 40-year stretch in which US nominal GDP ran 500-800 bps above US Treasury yields.\nIn short, bond-holders got slammed, but the cause, crisis and re-building after defeating the Axis powers justified the sacrifice.\nThe same, however, can not be said today as bond-holders get crushed yet again in a new-abnormal in which GDP will greatly (and similarly) outpace long-term bond yields.\nNeedless to say, current policy makers, the very foxes who put the global economic henhouse into the current pile of debt of rubble, like to blame this on COVID rather their bathroom mirrors.\nIronically, however, central bankers (as opposed to the Wehrmacht, the Japanese Empire or Italy’s Mussolini) managed to do as much harm to the global economy today (with deficit policies and extend-and-pretend money printers) as Germany’s Blitzkrieg or Hirohito’s Banzai raids did in the 1940’s.\nWhen it comes to context, can or should we really be comparing a global flu (death toll 3.75M) to a global war (death toll 85 million)?\nThe policy makers would like you to think so.\nFolks like Mnuchin (last year) or Yellen, Powell and the IMF (this year), are in fact trying to convince themselves and the world that the war against COVID was the real casus belli (reason for a justifiable war) of our current debt distress—equal in scope to World War II in its drastic impact on the financial world.\nBut regardless of anyone’s views on the COVID “War” or its questionable policy reactions, comparing its economic impact to that of World War II is an insult to both history and military metaphors.\nThe simple, objective and mathematically-confirmed fact is that the global economy was already in a debt crisis long before the first Corona headline of early 2020.\nToday, US debt to GDP is at levels it has not seen since that tragic and Second World War, and it’s projected to go much, much higher.\n\nSo, just in case you still think the Fed can and will meaningfully raise rates to fight obvious inflation, as it did in the 1970’s or 1980’s, think again.\nIn the 1970’s and 1980’s US debt/GDP was 30%. Today it’s 130%.\nGiven this self-inflicted (rather than COVID-blamed) reality, the Fed simply can’t afford to raise rates. Period. Full stop.\nBut as my colleague, Egon von Greyerz reminds, that by no means suggests that rates can’t and won’t rise.\nThe Fed (and other central banks) may be powerful, but they are not divine. In short, there’s a limit to their powers to simply “control” rates with a mouse-click.\nAt some point, there’s not enough credible fake money to manage the yield curve—especially on the long end.\nAs more printed and tanking currencies try to purchase lower yields and rates, eventually the entire experiment fails.\nAt that critical point, rates spike, inflation raises its ugly head and the central bankers look for something other than themselves to blame as the rest of the world stares at worthless currencies being replaced by comical central bank digital dollars.\nWonderful…\nContext 6: That Barbaric Relic?\nWhat the foregoing inflation and rate contexts means is that in the years ahead, inflation will run higher and rates will run (be forced/controlled) lower until both rates and inflation spike together.\nThis further means that real rates (i.e., those adjusted for inflation) could run as deep as -5% to -10% in the years ahead.\nSuch negative real rate levels could easily surpass those seen in the 70’s and 80’s, which means gold (and silver), both of whom love negative real rates, has nowhere to go but up, up and away in this totally debt-distorted backdrop.\nHow’s that for context?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129350574,"gmtCreate":1624361038098,"gmtModify":1634007313489,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No no no","listText":"No no no","text":"No no no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129350574","repostId":"1105214513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129327715,"gmtCreate":1624361021637,"gmtModify":1634007314204,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like abd comment pls","listText":"Like abd comment pls","text":"Like abd comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129327715","repostId":"1193103865","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129327118,"gmtCreate":1624361001334,"gmtModify":1634007314815,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Confused by the fed","listText":"Confused by the fed","text":"Confused by the fed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129327118","repostId":"1152615512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152615512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624360383,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152615512?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152615512","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the stren","content":"<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，它在一天之内消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，它在一天之内消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152615512","content_text":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n\nThe bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.\nInstead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.\nThe moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.\nBefore stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.\nFor me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.\nThis is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.\nFor those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.\nAfter the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.\nYet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.\nMuch of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.\nThe reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.\nHaving previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.\nWe will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.\nThe problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.\nThe threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.\nThe shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.\nBut just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129324297,"gmtCreate":1624360983419,"gmtModify":1634007315549,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Epic","listText":"Epic","text":"Epic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129324297","repostId":"1161172533","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161172533","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624360705,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161172533?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161172533","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 15) GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuin","content":"<p>(June 15)&nbsp;GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. </p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）游戏驿站周二表示，在发行500万股股票筹集约11.26亿美元后，该公司已完成场内股票发行。这家视频游戏零售商和领先的模因股票表示，将把所得款项用于全面的一般企业用途和增长计划，同时保持健康的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> The stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>在 Reddit 子组 WallStreetBets 的推动下，该股盘前上涨 6.84%，今年迄今已上涨 964%，该子组押注该公司能够在新领导层的带领下恢复业务。标普500 SPX，+1.40%，同期上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4772ce5d4d1e2d998daa7d0cddf05c0\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop completes at-the-market equity offering after raising $1.126 billion, stock jumps 6.84% premarket<blockquote>游戏驿站筹集 11.26 亿美元后完成场内股票发行，盘前股价上涨 6.84%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 15)&nbsp;GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. </p><p><blockquote>（6月15日）游戏驿站周二表示，在发行500万股股票筹集约11.26亿美元后，该公司已完成场内股票发行。这家视频游戏零售商和领先的模因股票表示，将把所得款项用于全面的一般企业用途和增长计划，同时保持健康的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p> The stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&amp;P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>在 Reddit 子组 WallStreetBets 的推动下，该股盘前上涨 6.84%，今年迄今已上涨 964%，该子组押注该公司能够在新领导层的带领下恢复业务。标普500 SPX，+1.40%，同期上涨12.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4772ce5d4d1e2d998daa7d0cddf05c0\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161172533","content_text":"(June 15) GameStop Corp. said Tuesday it has completed an at-the-market equity offering after issuing 5 million shares to raise about $1.126 billion. The videogame retailer and leading meme stock said it will use the proceeds for the catch-all general corporate purposes and for growth initiatives, while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. \nThe stock jumped 6.84% premarket and has gained 964% in the year to date, spurred on by Reddit subgroup WallStreetBets, who are betting the company can restore its business under new leadership. The S&P 500 SPX, +1.40% has gained 12.5% in the same period.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167351469,"gmtCreate":1624248918051,"gmtModify":1634008902404,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580126069984063","authorIdStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167351469","repostId":"1113916113","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":122376403,"gmtCreate":1624600795002,"gmtModify":1633950659218,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122376403","repostId":"1141321696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122378215,"gmtCreate":1624600727137,"gmtModify":1633950660271,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122378215","repostId":"2146027836","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125672617,"gmtCreate":1624673357039,"gmtModify":1633949774365,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","listText":"Buy the dip!&nbsp;","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125672617","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125672370,"gmtCreate":1624673341490,"gmtModify":1633949774489,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pleaseeeee ok","listText":"Pleaseeeee ok","text":"Pleaseeeee ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125672370","repostId":"1152075524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152075524","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624666599,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152075524?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152075524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(N","content":"<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Miss What 3 Nasdaq Stocks Do Next Week<blockquote>不要错过 3 只纳斯达克股票下周的表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-26 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)&nbsp;to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.</p><p><blockquote>近期股市表现良好，利好情绪送出<b>纳斯达克复合材料</b>（纳斯达克指数：^IXIC）创历史新高。周五，纳斯达克平静地结束了强劲的一周。</blockquote></p><p> We're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年即将过半，投资者正试图了解下半年的情况。尽管目前企业财报发布较为平静，但市场参与者下周将从大公司获得三项关键数据。纳斯达克投资者应将这些报告视为必读新闻，当我们突破六个月大关时，它们可能会改变市场今年。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b></p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:BBBY)&nbsp;will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock&nbsp;has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>床浴及其他</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：BBBY）将于 6 月 30 日星期三上午公布第一财季业绩。家居股受到了很多关注，这既是因为它的扭亏为盈，也是因为它作为一只受到个人投资者追捧的模因股的相对较新的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/417e33a9c1d841f220a2b37d2e368a64\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath &amp; Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 在过去几年中一直在苦苦挣扎，努力制定数字战略来抵御来自电子商务巨头的竞争。许多人认为该业务最终注定要失败，因此投资者对该股票产生了大量空头兴趣。然而，激进投资者介入，旨在专注于该公司最有利可图的商业机会，现在，一些股东对 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 从重新开放的经济中获利的能力持乐观态度。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath &amp; Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对即将发布的报告寄予厚望，预计 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond 将恢复盈利，并实现约 35% 的令人印象深刻的收入增长。在过去一周股价上涨之后，任何达不到这些崇高愿望的事情都可能导致模因股票的前景突然逆转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Micron Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美光科技</b></blockquote></p><p> Chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Micron Technology</b>(NASDAQ:MU)&nbsp;weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.</p><p><blockquote>芯片制造商<b>美光科技</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：MU）周三下午发布第三财季报告。该公司充分利用了存储芯片和其他产品需求的大幅增长，但鉴于半导体芯片行业臭名昭著的周期性，投资者似乎越来越担心美光的需求会持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，很少有投资者对刚刚结束的季度的实力有任何怀疑。大多数关注该股的人预计盈利将同比翻一番，收入增长速度将超过 35%。许多人认为这种增长将持续到明年。对 2022 财年盈利的普遍预测认为，美光的股价远期倍数仅为 8。</blockquote></p><p> The key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.</p><p><blockquote>关键问题是美光及其竞争对手将以多快的速度提高产能，以满足更高的需求。过去，芯片市场的上升周期结束是因为美光等公司过度提高产量，造成芯片过剩并导致价格暴跌。这反过来又会压低利润，使低市盈率成为粗心者的价值陷阱。所有人的目光都将聚焦在美光的报告上，不仅要看看事情进展如何，还要看看它及其竞争对手的未来会怎样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Walgreens Boots Alliance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly,<b>Walgreen Boots Alliance</b>(NASDAQ:WBA)&nbsp;will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>沃尔格林博姿联盟</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：WBA）将于 7 月 1 日星期四发布最新财报。投资者预计这家大型连锁药店的前景好坏参半，收入可能会比去年同期略有下滑，但利润跃升近 65%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will watch&nbsp;how Walgreens has done&nbsp;in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将关注沃尔格林在接种 COVID-19 疫苗方面的表现，这对整个行业来说是一次性的福音。然而，更长期的关注将是任何关于电子商务巨头是否可能的评论<b>亚马逊</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）更直接地挑战沃尔格林的业务可能会导致问题。</blockquote></p><p> Walgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔格林必须制定一个战略，说明如何从与新冠病毒相关的影响中获得动力。如果这家连锁药店无法交付，那么其股票相对停滞的表现可能会持续到 2021 年，甚至可能更久。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out for surprises</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小心惊喜</b></blockquote></p><p> News that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.</p><p><blockquote>接近投资者预期的消息可能不会对这三只股票或更广泛的股市产生太大影响。但如果这些公司中的任何一家有大惊喜，它可能会成为推动纳斯达克进入 7 月 4 日假期周末的原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/dont-miss-what-3-nasdaq-stocks-do-next-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152075524","content_text":"The stock market has done well recently, and the favorable sentiment has sent the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) to record levels. On Friday, the Nasdaq closed a strong week on a quiet note.\nWe're almost halfway through 2021, and investors are trying to get a read on how the second half of the year will go. Despite the current lull in corporate earnings releases, market participants will get three key readings from major companies next week.Nasdaqinvestors should treat these reports as must-read news that could move markets as we pass the six-month mark in the current year.\nBed Bath & Beyond\nBed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) will report its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday morning, June 30. Thehome furnishings stock has gotten a lot of attention both because of its turnaround efforts and because of its relatively new status as a meme stock followed by individual investors.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nBed Bath & Beyond has struggled over the past several years as it fought to come up with a digital strategy to fend off competition from e-commerce giants. Many saw the business as ultimately doomed, and the stock got substantial short interest among investors as a result. Yet activist investors stepped in and aimed to concentrate on the company's most lucrative business opportunities, and now, some shareholders are optimistic about Bed Bath & Beyond's ability to cash in on the reopening economy.\nInvestors have high hopes for the coming report, expecting Bed Bath & Beyond to return to profitability and produce impressive revenue growth of around 35%. After the gains the share price has seen in the past week, anything short of those lofty aspirations could cause an abrupt reversal for the meme stock's prospects.\nMicron Technology\nChipmaker Micron Technology(NASDAQ:MU) weighs in with its fiscal third-quarter report on Wednesday afternoon. The company has taken full advantage of huge rises in demand for memory chips and other products, but investors have seemed increasingly nervous abouthow long Micron's demand will lastgiven the notoriously cyclical nature of the semiconductor chip industry.\nTo be clear, few investors have any doubts about the strength of the just-ended quarter. Most of those following the stock expect earnings to double year over year, with revenue climbing at a faster than 35% pace. Many see that growth continuing well into next year. The consensus forecast for fiscal 2022 earnings puts a forward multiple of just 8 on Micron's share price.\nThe key question is how quickly Micron and its competitors will ramp up production capacity in order to meet higher demand. In the past, upward cycles in the chip market ended because companies like Micron boost production too far, creating gluts of chips and sending prices plunging. That in turn crushes profits, making low price-to-earnings ratios into value traps for the unwary. All eyes will be on Micron's report to see not only how things have gone, but also what the future holds for it and its rivals.\nWalgreens Boots Alliance\nLastly,Walgreen Boots Alliance(NASDAQ:WBA) will offer its latest look at earnings on Thursday, July 1. Investors are expecting a mixed picture from the giant drugstore chain, with revenue likely slipping a bit from year-ago levels but profits jumping by nearly 65%.\nInvestors will watch how Walgreens has done in administering COVID-19 vaccines, which has been a one-time boon for the industry generally. However, of greater long-term concern will be any comments on whether the possibility of e-commerce giant Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) challenging Walgreens' business more directly could cause problems.\nWalgreens will have to have a strategy for how to build on momentum from COVID-related impacts. If the drugstore chain can't deliver, then the relatively stagnant performance of its stock could continue further into 2021 and potentially beyond.\nWatch out for surprises\nNews that's close to what investors expect likely won't make a big difference for any of these three stocks or the stock market more broadly. But if any of these companies has a big surprise, it could turn out to be what moves the Nasdaq heading into the July 4 holiday weekend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9,"WBA":0.9,"BBBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122376163,"gmtCreate":1624600767852,"gmtModify":1633950659783,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122376163","repostId":"1180366049","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166240571,"gmtCreate":1624014255893,"gmtModify":1634024122720,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"NIO TTM","listText":"NIO TTM","text":"NIO TTM","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166240571","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124101714,"gmtCreate":1624751048938,"gmtModify":1633949173215,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"💁🏻‍♂️💁🏻‍♂️","listText":"💁🏻‍♂️💁🏻‍♂️","text":"💁🏻‍♂️💁🏻‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124101714","repostId":"1132692662","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132692662","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624680481,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1132692662?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 12:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132692662","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.In response to the recall, Tesla said ","content":"<p>Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.</p><p><blockquote>据中国国家市场监督管理总局消息，近日，特斯拉备案了召回计划，决定从即日起召回部分车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉决定召回2019年1月12日至2019年11月27日期间生产的35665辆进口Model 3。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>同时，特斯拉将召回2019年12月19日至2021年6月7日生产的部分国产Model 3，共计211256辆；2021年1月1日至2021年6月7日共生产38599辆国产Model Y。</blockquote></p><p> Due to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>由于本次召回范围内车辆的主动巡航控制系统存在问题，在以下情况下，驾驶员容易误启动主动巡航功能：当车辆处于D挡时，驾驶员试图通过再次推动右操纵杆来换挡；当车辆急转弯时，驾驶员误触并移动右操纵杆等。主动巡航控制误启动后，如果车辆设定的巡航速度不是当前速度，且当前速度低于设定速度，车辆就会加速到设定速度，导致车速突然增加，影响驾驶员的预期，导致车辆操控误判。极端情况下可能导致车辆碰撞，存在安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将通过OTA技术为召回车辆免费升级主动巡航控制软件，用户无需到店即可完成软件升级；对于无法通过OTA技术召回的车辆，特斯拉（北京）有限公司和特斯拉（上海）有限公司将通过特斯拉服务中心联系相关用户，免费为车辆升级主动巡航控制软件，以消除安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> In response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.</p><p><blockquote>针对此次召回，特斯拉6月26日表示，对于本次召回范围内的车辆（Model 3/Model Y），由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活，极端情况下存在安全隐患。特斯拉主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。用户无需到店完成OTA。特斯拉表示，对召回造成的不便表示歉意。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla recalls some imported and domestic Model 3 and Model Y in China<blockquote>特斯拉在华召回部分进口和国产Model 3和Model Y</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-26 12:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.</p><p><blockquote>据中国国家市场监督管理总局消息，近日，特斯拉备案了召回计划，决定从即日起召回部分车辆。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉决定召回2019年1月12日至2019年11月27日期间生产的35665辆进口Model 3。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>同时，特斯拉将召回2019年12月19日至2021年6月7日生产的部分国产Model 3，共计211256辆；2021年1月1日至2021年6月7日共生产38599辆国产Model Y。</blockquote></p><p> Due to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>由于本次召回范围内车辆的主动巡航控制系统存在问题，在以下情况下，驾驶员容易误启动主动巡航功能：当车辆处于D挡时，驾驶员试图通过再次推动右操纵杆来换挡；当车辆急转弯时，驾驶员误触并移动右操纵杆等。主动巡航控制误启动后，如果车辆设定的巡航速度不是当前速度，且当前速度低于设定速度，车辆就会加速到设定速度，导致车速突然增加，影响驾驶员的预期，导致车辆操控误判。极端情况下可能导致车辆碰撞，存在安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉将通过OTA技术为召回车辆免费升级主动巡航控制软件，用户无需到店即可完成软件升级；对于无法通过OTA技术召回的车辆，特斯拉（北京）有限公司和特斯拉（上海）有限公司将通过特斯拉服务中心联系相关用户，免费为车辆升级主动巡航控制软件，以消除安全隐患。</blockquote></p><p> In response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.</p><p><blockquote>针对此次召回，特斯拉6月26日表示，对于本次召回范围内的车辆（Model 3/Model Y），由于主动巡航控制功能可能被驾驶员误激活，极端情况下存在安全隐患。特斯拉主动向国家市场监督管理总局备案了召回计划。用户无需到店完成OTA。特斯拉表示，对召回造成的不便表示歉意。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132692662","content_text":"Recently, Tesla filed a recall plan and decided to recall some vehicles from now on,according to China's State Administration of market supervision.\nTesla decided to recall 35665 imported Model 3 produced between January 12, 2019 and November 27, 2019.\nMeanwhile, Tesla will recall some domestic Model 3 produced from December 19, 2019 to June 7, 2021, totaling 211256 vehicles; A total of 38599 domestic Model Y were produced from January 1, 2021 to June 7, 2021.\nDue to the problems of the active cruise control system of the vehicles within the scope of this recall, it is easy for the driver to activate the active cruise function by mistake in the following situations: when the vehicle is in D gear, the driver tries to switch the gear by pushing the right control lever again; When the vehicle turns sharply, the driver touches and moves the right control lever by mistake, etc. After the active cruise control is mistakenly activated, if the cruise speed set by the vehicle is not the current speed, and the current speed is lower than the set speed, the vehicle will accelerate to the set speed, resulting in a sudden increase in vehicle speed, which will affect the driver's expectation and lead to misjudgment of vehicle handling. In extreme cases, it may lead to vehicle collision, and there are potential safety hazards.\nTesla will upgrade the active cruise control software for the recalled vehicles free of charge through OTA technology, so users can complete the software upgrade without going to the store; For vehicles that cannot be recalled through OTA technology, Tesla Motors (Beijing) Co., Ltd. and Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. will contact relevant users through Tesla service center to upgrade active cruise control software for vehicles free, so as to eliminate potential safety hazards.\nIn response to the recall, Tesla said on June 26 that for the vehicles (Model 3 / Model Y) within the scope of this recall, due to the fact that the active cruise control function may be activated by the driver by mistake, there are potential safety hazards in extreme cases. Tesla took the initiative to file the recall plan with the State Administration of market supervision and administration. Users do not need to go to the store to complete the OTA. Tesla said it apologized for the inconvenience caused by the recall.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125676495,"gmtCreate":1624673328117,"gmtModify":1633949774735,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nvm give me r","listText":"Nvm give me r","text":"Nvm give me r","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125676495","repostId":"1100072036","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129327118,"gmtCreate":1624361001334,"gmtModify":1634007314815,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Confused by the fed","listText":"Confused by the fed","text":"Confused by the fed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129327118","repostId":"1152615512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152615512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624360383,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152615512?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152615512","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the stren","content":"<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，它在一天之内消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfused by the Fed? So Are Markets<blockquote>被美联储搞糊涂了？市场也是如此</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 19:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.  The bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.</p><p><blockquote>债券收益率的波动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑。债券市场应该是聪明的表亲，当浮躁的股票市场到处乱窜时，它能保持领先。过去一周没那么多。</blockquote></p><p> Instead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.</p><p><blockquote>10 年期国债收益率没有对美联储略显鹰派的语气做出冷静反应，而是在几个月内先是跃升最大，然后暴跌。周一，它在亚洲交易时段跌至二月份以来的最低水平，然后一路反弹，然后又有所回升。</blockquote></p><p> The moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.</p><p><blockquote>这些举动揭示了投资者对美联储意图和大流行后复苏力度的深深困惑，以及对安全收益率的极度绝望。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5911d5e0ad74414b1b88185c2769f99\" tg-width=\"336\" tg-height=\"410\">Before stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>在股票交易员变得过于自满之前，债券市场的波动反映在股市表面之下的类似波动中。</blockquote></p><p> For me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，最不寻常的转变是美联储将利率从零提高到 0.05% 后，美联储的逆回购工具存入了 2350 亿美元，因为美联储担心自己正在失去对利率下限的控制。</blockquote></p><p> This is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.</p><p><blockquote>这是一次真正的货币政策紧缩，而不仅仅是美联储所描述的技术性紧缩。对于关心流通中货币量的货币主义者来说，它在一天之内消耗了相当于两个月量化宽松的储备，并显示了有多少现金在系统中晃动，寻找哪怕是最小的收益率。</blockquote></p><p> For those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.</p><p><blockquote>对于包括我在内的那些更喜欢关注货币价格的人来说，现在货币价格更高了——尽管不是很高，但这是一种紧缩。根据纽约联储的数据，自 3 月份以来，货币市场的担保隔夜利率一直停留在 0.01% 的下限，部分借款利率为负。美联储宣布这一消息后，利率升至 0.05%，负利率消失了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707a50e4704c3c16d8d2eac7a0204f9\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"419\">After the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了最初的波动之后，债券市场经过深思熟虑的反应朝着收紧政策的正确方向发展： 较高的短期实际利率降低了长期通胀威胁，从而导致 10 年期和 30 年期国债收益率下降--直到周一重新通胀交易回归。利率上升拖累了对经济最敏感的股票--周期性股票和廉价价值股票--直到周一出现逆转。由于长期利率较低，成长型股票表现良好，但周一表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.</p><p><blockquote>然而，温和地说，0.05%是一个非常小的紧缩。通常，美联储的加息幅度为 0.25 个百分点，因此这相当于正常加息的五分之一。对美国国债来说，重要的不是货币价格的立即变化，而是美联储做出更大改变的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bacd47e561e9d7ffdb95d180913fadf\" tg-width=\"321\" tg-height=\"418\">Much of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>大部分焦点都集中在 “点”上，即美联储个别决策者的预测。2023 年的中值预测是当年两次增长 0.25 个百分点，而此前则没有变动。同样，在正常情况下，这并不会非常重要，因为这些预测没有约束力，对未来的政策起到了很糟糕的指导作用，而且无论如何还有两年的时间。他们甚至在周三的新闻发布会上被美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔驳回。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df90890ee96402b8d5375020d3c135\" tg-width=\"353\" tg-height=\"454\">The reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.</p><p><blockquote>市场如此关心的原因不是具体细节，而是基调从超级鸽派转变为一丝鹰派。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德周五强调了这一点，市场进一步走势，他表示第一次加息甚至可能在明年到来。18个点中有7个点在2022年有一两次上升，所以这里的消息仅仅是布拉德先生是其中之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.</p><p><blockquote>美联储此前一直小心翼翼地不说任何可能被解读为担心通胀的话，但突然似乎感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> We will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.</p><p><blockquote>我们将不得不等待鲍威尔先生和其他美联储成员提供更多信息，以了解这是否是他们想要的解释。他们很可能会对市场走势的规模感到惊讶，周五市场走势短暂地将五年期国债收益率（许多企业借款的基础）推至去年 2 月第一次封锁前的水平。如果鲍威尔先生试图说服市场，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> The problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于投资者对美联储的观点极其敏感。他们认为实体经济将受到比平时更高利率的打击。美联储还在过去一年里让投资者相信低利率几乎永远存在。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.</p><p><blockquote>利率上升阻碍经济的威胁促使投资者走向 2010 年后的剧本，至少在几天内是这样：购买长期债券，购买大型科技股和其他成长型股票，避开任何依赖于强劲扩张的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.</p><p><blockquote>从认为没有加息风险转变为认为有一些加息风险标志着心态的重大转变。但我敦促大家谨慎行事：不要以为国债市场对通胀的看法是正确的，更不用说疯狂波动的收益率只不过是对美联储计划的最佳猜测了。</blockquote></p><p> But just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.</p><p><blockquote>但就像 2013 年的缩减规模发脾气一样，当投资者开始对美联储的行动进行定价时，他们可能会过度，因为每个人都试图立即调整自己的投资组合以适应新的现实。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/confused-by-the-fed-so-are-markets-11624352991","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152615512","content_text":"Swings in bond yields reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength of the post-pandemic recovery.\n\nThe bond market is supposed to be the smart older cousin that keeps its head while the flighty stock market zooms about all over the place. Not so much in the past week.\nInstead of a calm response to the Federal Reserve’sslightly more hawkish tone, the 10-year yield first leapt by the most in months, then plunged. On Monday, it dropped during Asian trading hours to the lowest since February, before bouncing all the way back and then some.\nThe moves reveal deep confusion among investors about the Fed’s intentions and the strength ofthe post-pandemic recovery, as well as the extraordinary desperation for safe yields.\nBefore stock traders get too smug, bond-market volatility is mirrored by similar swings below the surface of the stock market.\nFor me, the most extraordinary shift was the $235 billion depositedin the Fed’s reverse repurchase facilityafter it raised the rate it pays from zero to 0.05%, because it was concerned that it was losing control of the lower bound of rates.\nThis is a true tightening of monetary policy, not the mere technicality the Fed presented it as. For monetarists who care about the amount of money in circulation, in one day it drained reserves equivalent to two months of quantitative easing, and showed just how much cash is sloshing around the system looking for even the tiniest yield.\nFor those, including me, who prefer to focus on the price of money, it is now higher—albeit not very much, it is a tightening. Secured overnight rates in the money market had been stuck on the floor of 0.01% since March, according to the New York Fed, with some borrowing at negative rates. It rose to 0.05% after the Fed’s announcement, and negative rates vanished.\nAfter the initial volatility, the bond market’s considered reaction was in the right direction for tighter policy: Higher short-term real rates reduced the longer-term inflation threat and so led to lower 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields—until the reflation trade returned on Monday. Higher rates pulled down stocks most sensitive to the economy—cyclicals and cheap value stocks—until Monday’s reverse. Growth stocks did fine thanks to lower long-term rates, before lagging on Monday.\nYet, 0.05% is a very small tightening, to put it mildly. Usually, the Fed moves in 0.25-percentage-point increments, so this was equivalent to one-fifth of a normal rate increase. What mattered for Treasurys wasn’t the immediate shift in the price of money, but the prospect of a bigger change by the Fed.\nMuch of the focus was on the “dots,” the projections of individual Fed policy makers. The median prediction for 2023 was for two 0.25-point increases that year, having previously been for no move. Again, in normal times this wouldn’t be terribly significant, as the predictions aren’t binding, have been a terrible guide to future policy and anyway are still two years away. They were even dismissed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in his news conference on Wednesday.\nThe reason the market cared so much isn’t the specifics, but the shift in tone from super-dovish to a hint of hawk. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard emphasized this—and the market moved further—on Friday when he said the first increase could even come next year. Seven of the 18 dots had one or two rises penciled in for 2022, so the news here was merely that Mr. Bullard was one of them.\nHaving previously been careful not to say anything that could possibly be interpreted as worrying about inflation, the Fed suddenly seemed to be concerned.\nWe will have to wait for more from Mr. Powell and other Fed members to find out if this is the interpretation they wanted. They might well be taken aback by the scale of the market moves, which on Friday briefly pushed five-year Treasury yields—the base for much corporate borrowing—up to where they stood in February last year, before the first lockdown. It wouldn’t surprise me if Mr. Powell tries to talk the market back.\nThe problem is that investors are supersensitive to the Fed’s views. They think the real economy will be hit much harder than it usually is by higher rates. The Fed also has spent the past year convincing investors that low rates are here pretty much forever.\nThe threat of higher rates holding back the economy pushed investors toward the post-2010 playbook, at least for a few days: Buy long-dated bonds, buy Big Tech and other growth stocks, steer clear of anything dependent on a strong expansion.\nThe shift from thinking there is no risk of rate rises to thinking there is some risk of increases marks a major change of mindset. But I urge caution: Don’t assume the Treasury market is right about inflation, let alone that the wildly swinging yield is anything more than a best guess at what the Fed plans.\nBut just as withthe taper tantrum of 2013, when investors start to price in Fed action, they can overdo it as everyone tries to adjust their portfolio to the new reality at once.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165105560,"gmtCreate":1624102542550,"gmtModify":1634010677723,"author":{"id":"3580126069984063","authorId":"3580126069984063","name":"Owlnayl","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580126069984063","idStr":"3580126069984063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Give me t","listText":"&nbsp;Give me t","text":"Give me t","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165105560","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。</li><li>DUV光刻预计到2025年将以8.4%的CAGR增长，EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML 在 EUV 中占据垄断地位，而在 DUV 中面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对于半导体制造工艺都绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为一家真正的创新者，ASML 拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，安全边际很小，他们可能会通过美元成本平均法将脚趾浸入水中，以从推动 ASML 的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>微距照片/iStock via Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding (ASML) 拥有无与伦比的市场地位，其最先进的技术平台 EUV 光刻没有竞争对手。同样，它在 DUV 内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识掌握着非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象还有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于整体GDP的行业。然而，市场早已认识到 ASML 的杰出潜力和潜在历程，但仍然可能低估了其潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，讲述了如何避免拥有太多半导体曝光。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论部分收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行后续跟进。我选择 ASML 是因为它独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器公司（TXN）和博通公司（AVGO）的股票，接触到了半导体价值链的制造层面，但如果进一步深入价值链，投资者就可以以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触到大多数制造商，这使得它变得非常有趣，因为你可以采用 “我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在竞争 ”的口头禅。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险敞口引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于 ASML 的追随者来说，这并不奇怪，但 ASML 在未来十年将推动其收入的产品中占据主导地位，那就是 EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方，都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML 提供光刻设备，光刻是通过光源以多种光谱打印芯片特征的艺术，其中最先进的是 EUV，它是 DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于 DUV 来说，尽管 ASML 拥有超过 85% 的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV在比DUV小近15倍的光波长（13.5nm对193nm）下工作。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将成为3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商严重依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来是一笔相当划算的交易，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是 ASML。对于每一代新的 EUV 机器，其产量都会随着更高的吞吐量和更少的停机问题而变得更好，这意味着 ASML 实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都是关于过程知识的行业。台积电（TSM）能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米，它将能够生产3纳米，因为它可以生产5纳米，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司（INTC）如此不利，以至于它不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面的持续问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到 5 纳米，就没有 3 纳米，正如我之前的文章中所讨论的那样。ASML 也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入 EUV 领域，他们将落后 ASML 很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前 EUV 早期困扰 ASML 的同样问题。我收录了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，该活动于 2018 年 11 月举行，下一次将于 2021 年 9 月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第6页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了 ASML 在其 EUV 生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也为每一代新产品带来了更好的 EUV 机械，生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用 EUV 技术需要大量的时间和资金，我无法想象还有什么比这更有利的竞争形势了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第16页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩尔定律，半导体制造是一个残酷的行业，研发支出巨大（ASML 花费了 60 亿欧元的研发支出才发明了 EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着 ASML 已经在研究下一代技术，即高 NA-EUV。High NA-EUV 还需要一段时间，下面的时间表有点过时，但其技术将显着改善 EUV 平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高良率和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍然有很多机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第21页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面规划了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的 DUV 平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，EUV产品和商业机会，第25页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上半导体行业的整体增长率预计至少在 2028 年之前将超过整体 GDP，复合年增长率为 8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司 (OTC: SSNLF) 的最新通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们对未来十年的资本支出合计预期将超过 2000 亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图可以看出，ASML 预计通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的 DUV 路线图就是一个例子，说明 EUV 的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像 DUV 的情况一样通过该公司称之为安装基地管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML投资者日2018，DUV产品和商业机会，第10页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总是有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战 ASML，但公司在该技术还处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现。到来并对 EUV 产生了 EUV 对 DUV 的影响。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了说明这一点，我插入了 ASML 自己对光刻技术如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是创造更强大、更快、更便宜的芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案相结合，帮助优化生产并实现经济实惠的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图（称为“掩模”或“十字线”）投射。在光中编码图案后，系统的光学器件会收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。图案被打印后，系统稍微移动晶圆，并在晶圆上制作另一份拷贝。重复这一过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成一层晶片。为了制造整个微芯片，这个过程一层一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路（IC）。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有150多层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于功能最小的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于功能较小的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020 年年度报告，光刻的作用，第 12 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果不熟悉，他们应该拿起一本书来教育自己。读完这一部分后，鉴于我对 ASML 的地位和竞争力的大力倡导，作为作者，我很容易觉得自己患有确认性偏见。不过，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响 ASML 的情况，但老实说，我找不到。当然，还有与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这也反映在 2016 年的股价上，以及目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。这些都是公司自己在2020年年度报告第21页中提到的，没有一个行业没有潜在的风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>总而言之：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML 开创了 EUV 光刻技术，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV 将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将推动 ASML 及其客户在未来十年内的长期价值</li><li>预计到 2028 年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%，超过整体 GDP，ASML 是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动对 ASML 产品的需求</li><li>在安装基地管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片 EUV 机器的依赖方面扩展 EUV 业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML 是尖端芯片制造的重要参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML 做得很好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>强劲的收入增长</li><li>强劲的利润率扩张</li><li>自由现金流大幅改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来巩固其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是 2021 年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于 2021 年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入增长略有下降，为 41 亿欧元，毛利率为 49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是已安装基础管理中的发展，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从 2019 年到 2020 年同比增长 29%，远远超过 18% 的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021 年第一季度，第 8 页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是市场估计是否低估了 ASML 的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了 ASML 的潜力还是高估了？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在整个 2028 年之前都受到分析师的广泛关注，但一旦我们超过 2025 年（这是不止一位分析师关注的最后一年），覆盖范围就会减弱。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR增长率为11.1%，但如果我们排除2021年，这显示出恒星增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到 2028 年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到 8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果将 2020 年至 2021 年的大幅跃升排除在外，ASML 的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一些支持 ASML 前景可能更加乐观的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业2020-2028年CAGR预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV 2020-2025 年复合年增长率预测为 8.4%，仍是 ASML 最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027 预测为 12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML 展示了其通过“安装基础管理”扩大机械生态系统的计划取得的进展，将总潜在市场增加了两位数以上，2018 年销售额为 20%，2025 年估计为 50%。</li><li>ASML 在 DUV 沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是 DUV 中利润率较高的部分，因为其在 DUV 中唯一的两个竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向 EUV 过渡，对 DUV 的需求也将随之增长。芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造受益于这两个系统。</li></ul>更不用说潜在的价格上涨，这些价格上涨可能会波及到其客户，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强势市场地位，在EUV中占据垄断地位，同时还将在本十年中期将高NA-EUV推向市场，因此他们可能会争夺ASML的产能。如今，客户为 EUV 机器支付大约 1.3-1.5 亿美元，而 DUV 机器的收入约为 1 亿美元。ASML 超额交付的最大障碍是其目前在交付 EUV 系统的能力方面的产能限制，每年上限为 40 至 50 个系统，随着需求的增长，该公司当然会努力扩大这一产能限制多年来。另一方面，随着 ASML 努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动因素。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图制定一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否会成立，或者它们是过于积极还是过于消极。我只想强调的是，考虑到目前发生的一切以及 ASML 的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现会比目前的预期还要好并非不合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>股价距离 52 周高点仅一步之遥，自 2020 年初以来一直处于上涨状态，自 2020 年 10 月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但市盈率却大幅扩大，随后所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长。股市早已认识到 ASML 的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股 722 美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供目标价的 30 位分析师中，非常看涨的比例自 2016 年以来从未更高，56% 的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类声明时保持谨慎是一种心理练习，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>当考虑如下所示的五年期限时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅增长，分别为 55 和 15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司处于一个非常不同的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极进展，ASML 还通过 2021 年 100 亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还大量资本，但不幸的是，该计划仅导致当前流通股减少 0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对 ASML 未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了对未来几年的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的产品组合和市场主导地位，近年来该公司的预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信现有股东持有现有股份对自己有好处，因为这家公司前景光明。过去一年，我一直在关注 ASML，我非常遗憾地说，我从来没有抽出时间好好研究过它，只是远远地看了一眼，得出的结论是，该股可能会在某个时候出现一次不错的回调。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言：“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对 ASML 的前景和潜在发展历程非常着迷，但以目前的价格来看，我对其前景和缺乏安全边际仍然犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上目前的水平，我认为美元成本平均法是当前价格的谨慎策略，同时如果我们在 2021 年底前看到回调，则保留为满载货车备份的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其两大主要产品（DUV 和 EUV 光刻）中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲顺风的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，没有真正的竞争，为预计到 2028 年复合年增长率将达到 8.6% 的行业提供机械和工具，其 DUV 和 EUV 平台的增长可能会更加强劲，同时还预计利润率将扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 没有什么坏话可说，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。有了如此强劲的前景，现有股东在持有股票方面做得很好，只是享受未来的旅程，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值最近大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。股票交易距离 52 周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得-林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者因准备调整或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”。这正是我在很长一段时间里从远处看待 ASML 时陷入的谬误。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了 ASML 的真实潜力，但任何将未来 5-10 年的预测都伴随着极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML 的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，因此美元成本平均法可以作为一种方法，在此过程中慢慢建仓，从而获得对公司的敞口。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}