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2021-05-25

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2021-06-03

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AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.

2021-06-02

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Li Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY

2021-06-09

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2021-05-28

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Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move

2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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2021-05-25

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Please help me like and comment thanks!","listText":"Wow. Please help me like and comment thanks!","text":"Wow. Please help me like and comment thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180520315","repostId":"1147808423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111976066,"gmtCreate":1622651126355,"gmtModify":1634099535017,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","listText":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","text":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111976066","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188552613?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p>\n<p>But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p>\n<p>Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p>\n<p>AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p>\n<p>So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p>\n<p>Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p>\n<p>The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p>\n<p>In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p>\n<p>Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p>\n<p>If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p>\n<p>There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p>\n<p>Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p>\n<p>AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p>\n<p>There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p>\n<p>AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p>\n<p>Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p>\n<p>Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p>\n<p>And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. 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How to Make Sense of the Move.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113234688,"gmtCreate":1622618270244,"gmtModify":1634099887532,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help like and comment!","listText":"Please help like and comment!","text":"Please help like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113234688","repostId":"1148792219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148792219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622617655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148792219?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148792219","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto Inc. today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. ","content":"<p>Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.</p><p>“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.</p><p>The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59fbee610d2c08bc81e137e9fe15362e\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"1555\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-02 15:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.</p><p>“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.</p><p>The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59fbee610d2c08bc81e137e9fe15362e\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"1555\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148792219","content_text":"Li Auto Inc. today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135428260,"gmtCreate":1622177796550,"gmtModify":1634183088507,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","listText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","text":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135428260","repostId":"1181071519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p>\n<p>Either move is likely to be swift.</p>\n<p>Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p>\n<p>As noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p>\n<p>A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p>\n<p>On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p>\n<p>New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p>\n<p>Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p>\n<p>Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p>\n<p>For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p>\n<p>However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p>\n<p><b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p>Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p>\n<p>Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p>\n<p><b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p>\n<p>CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p>\n<p>For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138642196,"gmtCreate":1621937978515,"gmtModify":1634185347885,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow!! Please help me comment thank u","listText":"Wow!! 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Please help me comment thank u","listText":"Wow!! Please help me comment thank u","text":"Wow!! Please help me comment thank u","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138642196","repostId":"2138416916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111976066,"gmtCreate":1622651126355,"gmtModify":1634099535017,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","listText":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","text":"Please help me like and comment thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111976066","repostId":"1188552613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188552613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622627641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188552613?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188552613","media":"Barrons","summary":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, th","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;and&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;into speculative territory.</p>\n<p>But it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.</p>\n<p>Shares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office.&nbsp;Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Even if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.</p>\n<p>AMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.</p>\n<p>So, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.</p>\n<p>Back then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.</p>\n<p>The upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.</p>\n<p>In those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.</p>\n<p>Maybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.</p>\n<p>If AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.</p>\n<p>Then, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&amp;P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.</p>\n<p>There are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.</p>\n<p>Also, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.</p>\n<p>AMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.</p>\n<p>There is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.</p>\n<p>AMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.</p>\n<p>Wall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.</p>\n<p>Analysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.</p>\n<p>And that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Is Surging Again. How to Make Sense of the Move.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-02 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-rockets-higher-is-it-worth-it-maybe-51622594691?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188552613","content_text":"AMC Entertainment‘s skyrocketing stock price would be easy to dismiss as just meme-trade madness, that social media-fueled investor frenzy that has launched the likes of GameStop and BlackBerry into speculative territory.\nBut it’s possible that traditional investors have missed a fundamental change in the movie theater business—and it wouldn’t be the first time.\nShares of AMC (ticker: AMC) surged 23% on Tuesday, closing at $32.04—just off an all-time high of $36.72 set in late May. That puts the movie-theater chain’s market capitalization at roughly $16 billion, more than 15 times what it was in 2018, a record-breaking year at the box office. Shares were up another 34%, to $42.92, in premarket trading Wednesday.\nEven if investors missed an inflection point, though, the math doesn’t add up. The reason might be that market cap isn’t the right measure. Maybe it’s enterprise value, which is essentially market cap and debt. AMC’s enterprise value is about $26 billion, compared with $6.2 billion or so at the end of 2018.\nAMC added debt during the pandemic as theaters in the country’s biggest cities were dark for months. And the numbers make it easy to understand why: The U.S. box office in 2020 generated about $2.1 billion in ticket sales, down 81% from the 2018 record of $11.9 billion.\nSo, it seems investors have been vexed by movie theater economics. But it wouldn’t be the first time. The industry essentially went belly up at the turn of the millennium. Regal Cinemas, for instance, declared bankruptcy in 2001.\nBack then, the industry had plenty of capacity because of a new theater design—stadium seating that gave a better view of the screen. That shift meant movie theater chains had to renovate or risk losing all their patrons to movie theaters that offered the better view. In the end, too many seats and not enough patrons meant the return on the stadium-seating investments never materialized.\nThe upshot was consolidation. With fewer operators, the number of screens stabilized. Between 2002 and 2007, Regal Cinemas became a cash-generating machine because the stock was mispriced. The stock returned 21% a year on average. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both returned less than 9% a year on average over the same period.\nIn those days, Regal Cinema’s enterprise value about $5 billion, or about 50% of total U.S. box office sales. That’s far short of AMC today. Something new has to be different for AMC to be worth it.\nMaybe the movie theater business is going to go through another period of consolidation, which can usher in another golden age of returns. AMC’s Tuesday gains, in fact, were catalyzed by new capital raised so the company could go on the offensive, acquiring defunct chains. Monopolies, after all, can be good for stock returns.\nIf AMC can increase market share and the U.S. box office sales can return to 2018 levels in a few years, total sales at might be $9 billion—$6 billion from tickets and $3 billion from concessions. Sales in 2018 amounted to $5.5 billion.\nThen, with better gross profit margins derived from larger scale, AMC might be able to generate $600 million in free cash flow annually, which puts the stock at about a 4% free cash flow yield. The S&P 500 trades for about a 3% free cash flow yield. The numbers can work—if they’re stretched.\nThere are problems with this scenario, though. There are lots of ifs and mights—and AMC has never generated cash flow like that in the past. Arriving at $600 million in free cash flow is more about justifying current valuations than predicting what is likely.\nAlso, with mergers and acquisitions, AMC market shares might rise, but there are still competitors. Regal Cinemas is still out there, owned by Cineworld Holdings (CINE. London). So is Cinemark (CNK). There’s not a true monopoly.\nAMC and its peers have to deal with streaming, too. Windows for exclusive theater showings are shrinking. The pandemic has accelerated that. And if AMC gets too large and demanding for movie makers, the talent can always go to streaming faster, hurting box office sales.\nThere is also the problem of the peer stocks. They aren’t trading like this is a brave new world for theaters. Cineworld stock is up 484% from its 52-week low, but shares are still off 72% from all-time highs. Cinemark shares are up 222% from their 52-week low. They are down 47% from their all-time high.\nAMC stock, again, is up almost 1,600% from its 52-week low and is down just 13% from its May all-time high.\nWall Street just doesn’t see the potential either. Nine analysts cover the stock. The average analyst price target is about $5. Before the pandemic, the average analyst price target was $15. But there were fewer shares back then. The old target enterprise value was roughly $7 billion. It’s tough to get from $7 billion to $26 billion predicting better margins.\nAnalysts do have positive free cash flow modeled, though–$13 million in 2022 and $90 million in 2023. That’s a long way from $600 million.\nAnd that’s just another way of saying that AMC bulls are a long way from making the math work.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113234688,"gmtCreate":1622618270244,"gmtModify":1634099887532,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please help like and comment!","listText":"Please help like and comment!","text":"Please help like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113234688","repostId":"1148792219","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148792219","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622617655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148792219?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148792219","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto Inc. today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. ","content":"<p>Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.</p><p>“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.</p><p>The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59fbee610d2c08bc81e137e9fe15362e\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"1555\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Inc. delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May, increasing by 101.3% YOY\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-02 15:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.</p><p>“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.</p><p>The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59fbee610d2c08bc81e137e9fe15362e\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"1555\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148792219","content_text":"Li Auto Inc. today announced that the Company delivered 4,323 Li ONEs in May 2021, representing a 101.3% year-over-year increase.“We are pleased to see our 2021 Li ONE, released on May 25, receive very positive feedback and strong recognition from our users demonstrated by the robust order inflow that took the total orders in May to a record high. Deliveries of the 2021 Li ONE, the first vehicle in the world with a full-stack self-developed NOA in a standard configuration, have already started. Given the strong uptake of the 2021 Li ONE since its launch and the continuous expansion of our direct sales and servicing network, we are optimistic that our deliveries in the second quarter will exceed the top end of our guidance range, and keep rising going forward, while the ongoing industry-wide semiconductor shortage continues to generate uncertainties,” said Yanan Shen, co-founder and president of Li Auto.The Company had 83 retail stores covering 57 cities, and 147 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 109 cities as of May 31, 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180520315,"gmtCreate":1623213267337,"gmtModify":1634035723302,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow. Please help me like and comment thanks!","listText":"Wow. Please help me like and comment thanks!","text":"Wow. Please help me like and comment thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180520315","repostId":"1147808423","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":135428260,"gmtCreate":1622177796550,"gmtModify":1634183088507,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","listText":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","text":"Help me out with a like and comment to this comment thank u!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135428260","repostId":"1181071519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181071519","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622172293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181071519?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181071519","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-t","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Here’s how to trade the stock market.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.</p>\n<p>Either move is likely to be swift.</p>\n<p>Let’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.</p>\n<p>As noted, the S&amp;PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.</p>\n<p>A breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063db1fcc3f4bada6dffb863a8efe067\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8a3cbd81ef0ad5dac523f49f6cf1fa\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"688\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023ccbac0711da78c8a01d78d29a6be4\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"688\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN</p>\n<p>Breadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.</p>\n<p>On a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,<i>c</i>umulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.</p>\n<p>Subscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).</p>\n<p>New 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.</p>\n<p>Volatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.</p>\n<p>Finally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/743d070c528a592ae7b42c58058c8722\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">In summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: SPY straddle buy</b></p>\n<p>For now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.</p>\n<p>However, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call</b></p>\n<p><b>And buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p>Currently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.</p>\n<p><b>New recommendation: Cerner</b></p>\n<p>Vague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.</p>\n<p><b>Buy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls</b></p>\n<p><b>At a price of 2.00 or less.</b></p>\n<p>CERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a28e858373b8acdc61ba05fbec2f2b\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"694\"><b>Follow-up action</b></p>\n<p><b><i>All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.</i></b></p>\n<p><b>Long 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:</b>Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:</b>This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:</b>This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:</p>\n<p><b>Buy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.</b></p>\n<p>For now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPY<i>trades</i>at the lower strike at any time.</p>\n<p><b>Long 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:</b>Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.</p>\n<p><b>Long 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:</b>This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).</p>\n<p><b>Long 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:</b>Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: As the S&P 500 approaches its all-time high, brace for a violent move\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-approaches-its-all-time-high-brace-for-a-violent-move-01622125439","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181071519","content_text":"Here’s how to trade the stock market.\n\nThe S&P 500 index has been trading in a range between twice-tested support at 4060 and the all-time highs at 4238. As it nears the top of this range, a volatile move is likely to follow: Either it will break out to new all-time highs, which would certainly engender some strong follow-through buying, or it will fail at the top of the trading range and move lower to test the bottom of the range once again.\nEither move is likely to be swift.\nLet’s review the indicators, and then we can judge what strategy to apply to this theory.\nAs noted, the S&PSPX,+0.12%has resistance at 4238 (the all-time highs) and doubly-tested support at 4060. Below there, another support level exists at 4000, and then the support of last resort is at 3870.\nA breakdown below 3870 would change things dramatically – turning the SPX decidedly bearish and most likely saying that we had entered a bear market. But that is far from current levels. In addition, the McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal is still in effect. Its target is the -4σ “modified Bollinger Band,” which is currently at 4020 and moving sideways.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, although heavy call buying seems to have begun again as SPX has approached its all-time highs. As long as these ratios are rising, the sell signals will remain in place. The computer programs that we use to analyze these charts agree that these ratios are still on sell signals.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been jumping back and forth. There were breadth buy signals issued in mid-May, but breadth was not as strong during the rally as one might have hoped for. As a result, these breadth oscillators – while still on buy signals – are susceptible to a quick reversal to sell signals if breadth should register two consecutive negative days.\nOn a more positive note, though, there has been some internal strength during this rally, and the cumulative breadth indicators are improving. In fact,cumulative volume breadth(CVB) just registered a new all-time high.\nSubscribers may recall that this is one of the few predictive things we can garner from cumulative indicators, and it portends a new all-time high in SPX will follow. The track record of this lone indicator has been very strong, in that it hasn’t been wrong in the 21 years we’ve tracked it (to be fair, there were no signals between the one in the year 2000 and the next one in 2013).\nNew 52-week highs continue to outnumber new 52-week lows. That is bullish. However, the number of new highs is no longer expanding as it once was. Regardless, this will remain a positive indicator as long as new highs outpace new lows.\nVolatility continues to be an area of analysis that is bullish in its outlook for stocks. First, the VIX “spike peak” buy signal remains in effect. Second, the trend of VIXVIX,-3.57%is clearly lower once again. VIX is below both is 200-day and 20-day moving verages. This is a slight change, because there had been a small uptrend development; that is no longer the case.\nFinally, the construct of volatility derivatives remains positive in that the VIX futuresVX00,-4.61%are trading at premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. The Cboe Volatility Index term structure slopes upward as well.\nIn summary, SPX is still trading within a range, and so we are trading confirmed buy signals as well as sell signals. A breakout above 4238 (i.e., to new all-time highs) would certainly be very positive, but that is not guaranteed.\nNew recommendation: SPY straddle buy\nFor now, SPX is still within a trading range between 4060 and 4238. One way to trade a range is to sell (short) near the top of the range and go long near the bottom of the range, reversing your position if a breakout occurs in either direction. In line with that strategy, one would be buying puts now, with SPX near the top of the range.\nHowever, as we saw in the above analysis, there are currently both positive and negative indicators, with one of the stronger ones being the CVB buy signal. With that in mind, one would buy calls, looking for SPX to eventually break out to new highs. Throw in the fact that volatility (VIX) is near its lows, and straddle purchase seems to be the strategy to take advantage of all of these factors.\nBuy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money call\nAnd buy 1 SPY July (16th) at-the-money put\nCurrently that at-the-money straddle costs about 17 points, or $1,700. It would make money, then, if SPY rose 17 points above the striking price or fell 17 points below.\nNew recommendation: Cerner\nVague takeover rumors have sprung up in CernerCERN,-0.94%over the past two days. Option volume is running about triple is usually pace over that time. Stock volume patterns are quite strong, and there is support for the stock in the 76-77 area.\nBuy 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls\nAt a price of 2.00 or less.\nCERN: 79.03 June (18th) 80 call: 1.95 offered\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 8 FXY Jun (18th) 87 calls:Sell these calls now, since the put-call ratio buy signal is no longer in place.\nLong 2 SPY June (11th) 410 puts and short 2 SPY June (11th) 385 puts:This trade was taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred, when SPX traded down through 4105 on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band. Effectively, at this point we are holding without a stop. It would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band. Right now, the lower Band is at about 4020 and moving sideways. Sell half of this position if SPX trades at 4000 at any time.\nLong 1 expiring SPY May (28th) 416 put and short 1 SPY May (28th) 396 put:This recommendation is based on the equity-only put-call ratio sell signal that is in place. We will hold this recommendation as long as the equity-only put-call ratios are on sell signals. Hence, we will be updating the status weekly. Since the spread is expiring, sell the current spread and replace it with the following:\nBuy 1 SPY June (18th) at-the-money put\n            And sell 1 SPY June (18th) put with a striking price 20 points lower.\nFor now, hold without a stop. Roll the position down, 20 strikes on each side, if SPYtradesat the lower strike at any time.\nLong 3 DUK June (18th) 100 calls:Hold without a stop while we wait for the activist investor to produce a positive result.\nLong 2 SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. It would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any period of three days or less (using closing prices).\nLong 1 KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:Kansas City SouthernKSU,+0.81%has formally accepted the higher takeover bid from Canadian National RailwayCNI,+2.82%.CNI stock has dropped a little, but the deal is still worth $315. The deal is for $200 cash + 1.129 shares of CNI. Of course, there are regulatory delays. However, the spread in the deal widened and option prices fell, which seems like overkill. When the higher bid was first made on May 14, Canadian National was trading at 107 and now it’s at 104 – hardly much of a difference. We are going to hold and see if this spread can tighten somewhat. It is unclear whether or not Canadian Pacific RailwayCP,-1.10%– the other bidder – will come back with a superior offer. It seems like the option market is saying “no.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131464156,"gmtCreate":1621876496475,"gmtModify":1634185876116,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yikes","listText":"Yikes","text":"Yikes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131464156","repostId":"2137155484","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131464385,"gmtCreate":1621876474347,"gmtModify":1634185876237,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131464385","repostId":"2137155161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131483871,"gmtCreate":1621873872793,"gmtModify":1634185883812,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131483871","repostId":"2137155987","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131483177,"gmtCreate":1621873846999,"gmtModify":1634185883932,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup!","listText":"Yup!","text":"Yup!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131483177","repostId":"2137155161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131483075,"gmtCreate":1621873809297,"gmtModify":1634185884152,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; .","listText":"&nbsp; .","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131483075","repostId":"2137155161","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131489894,"gmtCreate":1621873779818,"gmtModify":1634185884494,"author":{"id":"3580362982512250","authorId":"3580362982512250","name":"AmandaKoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580362982512250","authorIdStr":"3580362982512250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131489894","repostId":"2137155484","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}