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2723cf4c

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2021-05-31

Good

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2021-05-03

Uber? What Uber?

Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-05-26

Yes

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2021-06-04

Good

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2021-07-04

[Miser]

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2021-06-02

Miss you

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2021-05-29

Yes

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2021-05-14

Refreshing way to see the drop in market.

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2021-06-29

👏👏

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2021-05-25

Facebook?

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08:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137119316","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.With Ford  launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO  will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Or NIO? The Final Verdict<blockquote>福特还是蔚来？最终判决</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 08:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>I am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.</li>  <li>The comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.</li>  <li>NIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5033fa117d7852799244b8275bc1000f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"886\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我在不同的类别中比较福特和蔚来。</li><li>此次比较旨在加深对福特和蔚来增长潜力的了解，同时突出市场地位和机会的差异。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比福特快得多，高估值可能是合理的。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>peterschreiber.media/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.</p><p><blockquote>随着福特（F）在电动汽车市场发起重大攻势，中国电动汽车制造商蔚来（蔚来）未来将面临多一个竞争对手争夺销量。根据市场机会、规模、收入模式、增长前景和估值，哪家汽车制造商提供了最好的交易？我将在每个类别中比较福特和蔚来，并在最后做出最终裁决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>福特vs蔚来：全球电动车市场争夺战升温</b></blockquote></p><p> Although there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing&nbsp;$30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.</p><p><blockquote>尽管福特和蔚来之间存在天壤之别，但两家公司将在快速增长的全球电动汽车市场上展开正面交锋。福特的车队尚未专注于电动汽车，但这种情况将会改变：感觉到电动汽车竞赛正在升温，福特表示正在加速其电气化计划，到2025年投资300B美元用于其电动汽车制造能力。福特之前的资本计划要求对零排放汽车投资220亿美元。福特还设定了一个雄心勃勃的销售目标：未来十年内其全球销量的40%将是电动汽车，皮卡销量的33%将是电动汽车。如今，电动汽车销量仅占福特销量的1%。随着福特逐步淘汰内燃机，它将在2040年发展成为一家全电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> In 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，全球电动汽车销量为320万辆，市场份额仅为4.2%。然而，2020年，中国购买了全球41%的电动汽车。中国买家去年购买了130万辆电动汽车，随着北京寻求提高电动汽车的采用率，销量将快速增长。电动汽车的第二大市场是欧洲，占全球电动汽车销量的42%。美国只是世界上插电式电动汽车的第三大市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b48c23b32134542f51227d9b1b612887\" tg-width=\"1083\" tg-height=\"863\"><span>(Source: Wikipedia)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：维基百科）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> China, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is&nbsp;on the cusp of entering the European market&nbsp;in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，中国是世界上增长最快的电动汽车市场，尽管欧洲正在迅速赶上，部分原因是立法努力增加零排放乘用车的采用，以及对全欧洲充电站网络的大量投资。蔚来即将进入欧洲市场，以期在竞争准备就绪之前扩大在全球第二大电动汽车市场的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Beijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a&nbsp;twenty percent share&nbsp;of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.</p><p><blockquote>北京是蔚来汽车行业电气化背后的驱动力：政府希望到2025年电动汽车在新车销售中的份额达到20%，这将推动电动汽车在国内市场的渗透率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9871e44eaf69adb27151425887870ace\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"454\"><span>(Source:Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to growth projections.</p><p><blockquote>转向增长预测。</blockquote></p><p> With more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国和欧洲等地政府对电动汽车制造商采取更有利的政策，这些市场有望出现全球最快的销售增长和最高的电动汽车采用率。由于人口规模，中国不仅是最大的市场，而且预计到2030年，中国的电动汽车销量将超过世界上所有其他市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61d19dff2f34e2d8828aca854e85d84a\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"565\"><span>(Source:McKinsey)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：麦肯锡）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>由于中国拥有更大的总市场规模、更高的电动汽车采用率、更强劲的预期销售增长以及更有利的监管框架，因此中国的赢家将是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale and manufacturing competence</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模和制造能力</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.</p><p><blockquote>福特拥有一个世纪的制造经验。但到目前为止，福特的产品线中只有一款全电动汽车可以与蔚来相媲美：野马Mach-E SUV。2022年，福特将开始销售全电动F-150 Lightening，该车建立在福特最畅销皮卡车的成功基础上。蔚来已经拥有更强大的产品目录，包括5座ES6 SUV、5座轿跑SUV EC6以及6座和7座全尺寸SUV ES8。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Since NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来仅专注于生产电动汽车，并且占据了非常小且明确的利基市场，因此这家中国公司在电动汽车制造专业知识方面具有优势。问题是这种优势能持续多久。福特在制造汽车方面拥有丰富的经验，可以利用全球制造基地以比任何利基电动汽车制造商所希望的更快的速度提高电动汽车产量。这使得福特不仅在美国成为特斯拉(TSLA)的有力竞争对手，而且在国外也成为蔚来的有力竞争对手。福特正在加速其电气化计划，它有资源和雄心在未来十年内成为电动汽车的领导者。福特提议在其车队电气化上投入300B美元，这将加速其转型，并使福特成为其他电动汽车制造商的长期威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Winner here: Ford.</p><p><blockquote>赢家：福特。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Differentiation and BaaS revenue model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>差异化和BaaS收入模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来都知道差异化在一个竞争只会随着时间的推移而变得更加激烈的市场中的重要性，这就是为什么两家公司都在一个可以打破或巩固电动汽车市场主导地位的相关领域：电池技术。</blockquote></p><p> Ford is&nbsp;forming a joint venture&nbsp;with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has&nbsp;formed its own joint venture&nbsp;to secure battery supply.</p><p><blockquote>福特正在与韩国电池技术公司SK Innovation组建一家合资企业，以确保牵引电池单元和阵列模块的供应。该合资企业旨在加速电池交付，每年将生产约60 GWh，足以满足福特到2030年预计年度能源需求的25%。蔚来也在投资电池技术，并成立了自己的合资企业来确保电池供应。</blockquote></p><p> The difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.</p><p><blockquote>与福特的不同之处在于，蔚来的电池投资策略围绕电池订阅模式，也称为“电池即服务”，这为这家中国汽车制造商创造了强大的长期收入机会。在这种“BaaS”模式下，购买蔚来电动汽车的用户可以获得7万元人民币的初始折扣，相当于1.08万美元，并且可以签约包月租用可充电的70 kWh电池。然后可以在蔚来的一个电池交换站更换电池，该站遍布中国大多数大城市。电池订阅费用为每月980元人民币，相当于150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.</p><p><blockquote>BaaS模式对汽车制造商和用户都有几个好处：由于预付折扣，从蔚来购买电动汽车变得更加实惠，订阅模式确保用户受益于电池技术的进步和更好的性能随着时间的推移。将电池成本与汽车价格脱钩为蔚来创造了一个全新的订阅收入来源。“BaaS”订阅的收入可用于增加蔚来充电/更换站网络的密度。电池订阅模式还将客户与蔚来绑定在一起，有可能增加客户的终身价值。</blockquote></p><p> Ford and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来准备从电动汽车电池成本下降中受益，因为它们增加了资本配置。随着越来越多的投资流入开发更高效的电池，性能将会提高，成本将会下降，这将推动电动汽车的采用并使所有电动汽车制造商受益。这是因为较低的电池价格使电动汽车与内燃机乘用车相比更具竞争力。但由于蔚来明确围绕电池订阅构建其商业模式的一部分，蔚来可能比福特受益更多。</blockquote></p><p> Battery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据投资公司施罗德(Schroders)提供的信息，自2014年以来，电动汽车的电池成本已下降70%，并且在本十年还将进一步下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42acb75905affe7570a2f399ea3192f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>(Source: Schroders)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：施罗德）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.</p><p><blockquote>“BaaS”模式非常天才，从长远来看，它可能会发展成为蔚来每年5亿美元的收入机会。尽管福特正在加大对电池技术的投资，但这一类别的赢家是：蔚来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales growth and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Ford’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.</p><p><blockquote>福特5月份销量同比增长4.1%，但电动汽车销量（包括混合动力汽车）同比飙升184%，福特5月份售出创纪录的10,364辆电动汽车/混合动力汽车。Escape electrified销量和Explorer Hybrid销量同比增长125%和132%，显示出强劲的客户接受度。蔚来上个月交付了6,711辆汽车，其中包括3,017辆ES6、1,412辆ES8和2,282辆EC6。5月份总交付量同比增长率为95.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>福特的销售额是蔚来的54倍，这为蔚来创造了更多的销售增长和价值重估潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5a0a393e44ed74241c5effcdd92350\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!</p><p><blockquote>福特和蔚来的估值差异就像白天和黑夜的区别。这是因为尽管电动汽车类别出现爆炸性增长，但福特仍被视为一家成熟的汽车制造商，预计企业销量将实现中低位数增长。预计到2025财年（基准年：2020财年），福特的收入将增长33%，蔚来的收入将增长808%！</blockquote></p><p> Due to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些销量增长的差异，蔚来与福特完全相反，至少就估值而言。这家中国电动汽车制造商预计今年的销量和交付量将增长接近100%，由于蔚来只经营电动汽车，蔚来的市值与销售额比率远高于福特。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817605c6b1e82c03d0473ea570d32b8f\" tg-width=\"506\" tg-height=\"406\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO has larger risks...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来风险更大……</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来是风险更大的企业，但也是最有希望的企业。政府政策有利于蔚来等电动汽车制造商。蔚来的全球总销量增长潜力更大，因为与福特相比，它的收入基础较小。但也有一些事情对蔚来不利。例如，对于蔚来来说，由于生产缺陷而导致的召回将是一个比福特更大的挑战，福特可以依赖全球服务和分销网络。蔚来的估值也并非没有风险，因为生产受挫导致销售增长意外放缓将对财务状况造成更大的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终审判决</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来绝对是更“性感”的汽车制造商。中欧的强劲采用和销售增长支持了蔚来。其超级智能BaaS模型将车辆购买价格与电池成本脱钩，这是天才之举。你为这种增长付出了高昂的代价，但蔚来的市场机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Ford’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.</p><p><blockquote>福特的电动汽车销量正在蓬勃发展，随着汽车制造商对其车队进行电气化，电动汽车销量的比例将会增加。福特在电动汽车市场潜力巨大，但由于电动汽车销量占总销量的比例仍然相对较低，福特需要很长时间才能完成转型。</blockquote></p><p> If you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.</p><p><blockquote>如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力，请购买蔚来。如果您相信全球电动汽车市场的潜力并且不喜欢太多风险，请购买福特。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436600-ford-or-nio-the-final-verdict","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137119316","content_text":"Summary\n\nI am comparing Ford against NIO in different categories.\nThe comparison is intended to improve the understanding of Ford's and NIO's growth potential while highlighting differences in market position and opportunities.\nNIO is growing a lot faster than Ford and the high valuation may be justified.\n\npeterschreiber.media/iStock via Getty Images\nWith Ford (F) launching a major offensive in the market for electric vehicles, Chinese EV maker NIO (NIO) will face one more rival competing for sales in the future. Which vehicle maker offers the best deal based on market opportunity, scale, revenue model, growth prospects and valuation? I will compare Ford against NIO in each category and issue a final verdict at the end.\nFord vs. NIO: The battle for the global electric vehicle market is heating up\nAlthough there is a world of difference between Ford and NIO, both companies are set to go toe-to-toe in the rapidly growing global electric vehicle market. Ford’s fleet is not yet EV-focused but this is going to change: Feeling that the EV race is heating up, Ford said it is accelerating its electrification plan by investing $30B into its EV manufacturing capabilities until 2025. Ford’s previous capital plan called for a $22B investment in zero-emission vehicles. Ford also set an ambitious sales goal: 40% of its global sales will be electric within the next decade and 33% of pickup truck sales. Electric vehicle sales account for just 1% of Ford's sales today. As Ford is phasing out combustion engines, it is set to evolve into an all-electric vehicle maker by 2040.\nMarket opportunity\nIn 2020, 3.2m electric vehicles were sold in the world which represented a small market share of just 4.2%. China, however, was responsible for buying 41% of all electric vehicles in the world in 2020. Chinese buyers purchased 1.3m electric vehicles last year and sales are set to grow fast as Beijing seeks to boost EV adoption. The second largest market for electric vehicles was Europe which accounted for 42% of global EV sales. The US is only the third-largest market for plug-in electric vehicles in the world.\n(Source: Wikipedia)\nChina, by far, is the fastest growing EV market in the world, although Europe is catching up fast, in part due to a legislative efforts to increase adoption of zero-emission passenger vehicles and because of massive investments in a Europe-wide charging station network. NIO is on the cusp of entering the European market in a bid to grow market share in the world’s second-largest EV market before the competition is ready.\nBeijing is a driver behind the electrification of the Chinese auto industry: The government wants to see a twenty percent share of electric vehicles for new car sales by 2025 which will drive EV penetration in NIO’s home market.\n(Source:Schroders)\nTurning to growth projections.\nWith more favorable government policies for EV makers in places like China and Europe, these markets are poised to see the fastest sales growth and the highest EV adoption rates in the world. China is not only the largest market due to population size but is also expected to outperform all other markets in the world in EV sales until 2030.\n(Source:McKinsey)\nSince China has a larger total market size, a higher EV adoption rate, stronger expected sales growth and a more favorable regulatory framework, the winner here would be: NIO.\nScale and manufacturing competence\nFord has a century’s worth of manufacturing experience. But Ford, so far, has only one all-electric vehicle in its product line-up that compares to NIO: The Mustang Mach-E SUV. In 2022, Ford will begin to sell the all-electric F-150 Lightening which builds on the success of Ford’s best-selling pick-up truck. NIO already has a stronger product catalog including the 5-seater ES6 SUV, the 5-seater coupe SUV EC6 and the ES8, a 6-seater and 7-seater full-sized SUV.\nSince NIO is solely focused on producing EVs and occupies a very small and defined niche, the Chinese firm has an advantage as far as EV-manufacturing expertise goes. The question is how long this advantage can last. Ford has extensive experience in building cars and can leverage a global manufacturing base to ramp up EV production faster than any niche EV maker could ever hope to achieve. This makes Ford a very serious rival not only to Tesla (TSLA) in the US, but also to NIO abroad. Ford is accelerating its electrification plans and it has the resources and the ambition to become a leader in EVs within the next decade. Ford’s proposed $30B spending on the electrification of its fleet will accelerate its transformation and turn Ford into a long term threat to other EV makers.\nWinner here: Ford.\nDifferentiation and BaaS revenue model\nBoth Ford and NIO know about the importance of differentiation in a market that will only get more competitive over time, which is why both companies are investing heavily in a related field that can break or solidify dominance in the EV market: Battery technology.\nFord is forming a joint venture with South Korean battery technology company SK Innovation to secure supply of traction battery cells and array modules. The joint venture is meant to accelerate battery deliveries and will produce approximately 60 GWh annually, enough to cover 25% of Ford’s estimated annual energy demand by 2030. NIO is also investing in battery technology and has formed its own joint venture to secure battery supply.\nThe difference to Ford is that NIO’s battery investment strategy revolves around a battery subscription model, also called “battery-as-a-service”, which creates a strong, long term revenue opportunity for the Chinese vehicle maker. Under this “BaaS” model, users who buy a NIO electric vehicle get a 70,000 RMB initial discount, equivalent to $10,800, and can sign up for a monthly subscription to rent a rechargeable 70 kWh battery. Batteries can then be exchanged at one of NIO’s battery-swapping stations which can be found in most big Chinese cities. A battery subscription costs 980 RMB monthly which is the equivalent of $150.\nThe BaaS model has a couple of benefits for both the vehicle maker and the user: Purchasing an electric vehicle from NIO gets a lot more affordable due to the up-front discount and the subscription model ensures that users benefit from advancement in battery technology and better performance over time. Decoupling battery costs from vehicle prices creates an entirely new revenue stream on a subscription basis for NIO. Revenues from “BaaS” subscriptions could be used to increase the density of NIO’s network of charging/replacement stations. The battery subscription model also binds customers to NIO, potentially increasing customer lifetime value.\nFord and NIO are primed to benefit from falling battery costs for electric vehicles as they ramp up capital allocations. As more investments flow into developing more efficient batteries, performance will go up and costs will go down which should drive EV adoption and benefit all EV makers. This is because lower battery prices make EVs more competitive to passenger vehicles with combustion engines. But since NIO is structuring a part of its business model explicitly around battery subscriptions, NIO could benefit more than Ford.\nBattery costs for EVs have decreased 70% since 2014, based on information provided by investment firm Schroders, and are set to decrease more this decade.\n(Source: Schroders)\nThe “BaaS” model is genius and could develop into a $500M a year revenue opportunity for NIO long term. Although Ford is ramping up its investments in battery technology, the winner in this category is: NIO.\nSales growth and valuation\nFord’s sales in May grew 4.1% Y/Y but electrified vehicle sales (including hybrids) surged 184% Y/Y as Ford sold a record 10,364 EVs/hybrids in May. Escape electrified sales and Explorer Hybrid grew sales at 125% and 132% Y/Y showing strong customer uptake. NIO delivered 6,711 vehicles last month including 3,017 ES6s, 1,412 ES8s and 2,282 EC6s. Total Y/Y delivery growth for May was 95.3%.\nFord's sales are fifty-four times larger than NIO's which creates more sales growth and revaluation potential for NIO.\nData by YCharts\nThe difference in valuation between Ford and NIO is like the difference between night and day. This is because Ford is still seen as a mature vehicle maker with expected enterprise sales growth in the low-to-mid digits, despite explosive growth in the EV category. Ford is expected to grow revenues by 33% until FY 2025 (base year: FY 2020) and NIO by 808%!\nDue to these differences in sales growth, NIO is the complete opposite of Ford, at least as far as valuation goes. The Chinese EV-maker is expected to see sales and delivery growth close to 100% this year and since NIO is only dealing in EVs, NIO gets a much higher market-cap-to-sales ratio than Ford.\n(Source: Author)\nNIO has larger risks...\nNIO is the more risky venture, but also the one that offers the most promise. Government policy favors EV-makers like NIO. The potential for total global sales growth is larger for NIO as it operates from a smaller revenue base compared to Ford. But there are also a few things that work against NIO. For example, recalls due to production defects would be a much bigger challenge for NIO to overcome than for Ford which can rely on a global service and distribution network. NIO’s valuation is also not without risk as an unexpected slowing of sales growth due to production setbacks would leave a much larger dent in the financials.\nFinal verdict\nNIO is definitely the more “sexy” vehicle maker. Strong adoption and sales growth in China and Europe support NIO. Its super smart BaaS model which decouples vehicle purchase prices from battery costs is genius. You pay a high price for this growth but the market opportunity for NIO is immense.\nFord’s EV sales are booming and the percentage of EV sales will increase as the vehicle maker electrifies its fleet. Ford has a lot of potential in the EV market but since EV sales are still a relatively low percentage of total sales, it will take a long time for Ford to complete its transformation.\nIf you believe in the potential of the global EV market, buy NIO. If you believe in the potential of the global EV market and don’t like much risk, buy Ford.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126800692,"gmtCreate":1624549514716,"gmtModify":1631889772248,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126800692","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121686087,"gmtCreate":1624461857949,"gmtModify":1631889772253,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121686087","repostId":"1127255730","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129103456,"gmtCreate":1624362820675,"gmtModify":1631889772254,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129103456","repostId":"2145056554","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162907789,"gmtCreate":1624030033741,"gmtModify":1631889772258,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162907789","repostId":"1138062216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168029541,"gmtCreate":1623944518783,"gmtModify":1631889772264,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FK","listText":"FK","text":"FK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168029541","repostId":"2144742672","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163008681,"gmtCreate":1623852483243,"gmtModify":1631889772265,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163008681","repostId":"2143179480","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184453163,"gmtCreate":1623722512252,"gmtModify":1631892121204,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184453163","repostId":"2143898782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182805643,"gmtCreate":1623560758682,"gmtModify":1631892121208,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Love Meme","listText":"Love Meme","text":"Love Meme","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182805643","repostId":"1185020128","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185020128","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623537503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185020128?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 06:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185020128","media":"investors","summary":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ","content":"<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线位于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Meme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMeme Stock Soars 1,000% To Lead These Two Top Small Cap Stock Plays<blockquote>Meme股票飙升1,000%，领跑这两只顶级小盘股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investors</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-13 06:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站可能是SPDR S&amp;P 600小型股价值中最大的持股，但这并不是该ETF击败成长型股票的唯一原因。</blockquote></p><p> The $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>这只价值42亿美元的价值基金追踪S&amp;P SmallCap 600价值指数(SLYV)，该指数由根据账面价值与价格比率、市盈率和销售价格比率具有最强价值特征的股票组成。截至周四收盘，SLYV今年上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> That more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>这是成长型股票SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth(SLYG)回报率的两倍多，后者上涨了15%。SLYG跟踪的指数包括基于销售增长、盈利价格变化和动量的增长特征最强的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Back to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each.&nbsp;Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.</p><p><blockquote>回到SLYV，金融业占资产比重最大，占资产的24%。工业股约占17%，非必需消费品股15%，房地产股10%。其次是信息技术，占8%，材料、能源和医疗保健，各占6%。消费品、公用事业和通信服务的较小头寸占其余部分。</blockquote></p><p> SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.</p><p><blockquote>SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Value位居IBD ETF领先者之列，但SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Growth则不然。</blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop Stock Leads</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站股票领先</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>GameStop</b>(GME),<b>Macy's</b>(M),<b>PDC Energy</b>(PDCE),<b>Resideo Technologies</b>(REZI) and<b>BankUnited</b>(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>游戏驿站</b>（GME），<b>梅西百货</b>(M)，<b>PDC能源</b>（PDCE），<b>Resideo技术</b>（雷齐）和<b>联合银行</b>(BKU)是截至周三的前五大持股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pacific Premier Bancorp</b>(PPBI),<b>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond</b>(BBBY),<b>Ameris Bancorp</b>(ABCB),<b>First Hawaiian</b>(FHB) and<b>Insight Enterprises</b>(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.</p><p><blockquote><b>太平洋卓越银行</b>（PPBI），<b>贝德柏士比昂公司</b>（BBBY），<b>美国银行</b>（ABCB），<b>第一夏威夷人</b>（FHB）和<b>洞察企业</b>(NSIT)跻身前十名。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站今年经历了大幅波动。今年早些时候，在Reddit/WallStreetBets人群推动的空头挤压反弹中，该股飙升了约2,500%。GME股票随后从1月28日的高点暴跌92%至2月中旬的低点。随后在接下来的三周内飙升805%，在接下来的两周内下跌66%。</blockquote></p><p> Action had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>此后，股价一直相对低迷，直到周四暴跌27%。即便如此，截至周四收盘，游戏驿站股价今年迄今仍上涨了1,070%。</blockquote></p><p> Could GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.</p><p><blockquote>GME会夸大SLYV的业绩吗？当然，考虑到其四位数的增益。但看看SLYG的投资组合很有趣。游戏驿站股票也是成长型股票ETF中持股最多的股票，尽管前10名中的其他股票差异很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Second Meme Stock In Top 10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前十名中的第二只模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p> PDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote>PDC Energy上涨130%，在前十名中涨幅第二大。这家总部位于科罗拉多州的石油和天然气勘探公司的相对强度评级为97，这意味着它在所有股票中排名前3%。其相对强弱线位于52周高点，这是一个看涨信号。</blockquote></p><p> Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.</p><p><blockquote>另一只模因股票Bed Bath&amp;Beyond今年上涨了78%。在一系列两位数的剧烈波动中，股价在1月份飙升了200%以上。BBBY股票随后回吐了大部分涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> But the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.</p><p><blockquote>但这家家居用品零售商似乎又重新受到了WallStreetBets讨论组的关注。6月2日，Bed Bath&amp;Beyond股价飙升62%，随后第二个交易日暴跌28%。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&amp;P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.</p><p><blockquote>其余前10只股票的表现也优于大盘。梅西百货今年迄今上涨了68%，而Resideo、Pacific Premier和Ameris的涨幅均超过40%。涨幅最低的银行控股公司First Hawaiian上涨了20%。截至周四收盘，标普500上涨了13%。</blockquote></p><p> SLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis.&nbsp;SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.</p><p><blockquote>根据MarketSmithChart分析，SLYV仍处于带手柄acup的87.29入场点的潜在买入范围内。SLYV和SLYG收取0.15%的费用率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220\">investors</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","PDCE":"PDC Energy"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etf-leaders/gamestop-stock-soars-1000-percent-lead-two-top-small-cap-stock-plays/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185020128","content_text":"GameStop may be the top holding in SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value, but that's not the only reason the ETF is beating its growth-stock counterpart.\nThe $4.2 billion value fund tracks the S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (SLYV), composed of stocks with the strongest value traits based on book value to price ratio, earnings to price ratio, and sales to price ratio. SLYV rallied 32% this year through Thursday's close.\nThat more than doubles the return of its growth stock counterpart, SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth (SLYG), which is up 15%. The index SLYG tracks includes stocks with the strongest growth traits based on sales growth, earnings change to price and momentum.\nBack to SLYV, financials accounted for the biggest sector weight at 24% of assets. Industrials weighed in at about 17%, consumer discretionary 15% and real estate 10%. Information technology was next at 8% and materials, energy and health care, 6% each. Smaller positions in consumer staples, utilities and communication services made up the rest.\nSPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value is in IBD's ETF Leaders, but SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth is not.\nGameStop Stock Leads\nGameStop(GME),Macy's(M),PDC Energy(PDCE),Resideo Technologies(REZI) andBankUnited(BKU) were the top five holdings as of Wednesday.\nPacific Premier Bancorp(PPBI),Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY),Ameris Bancorp(ABCB),First Hawaiian(FHB) andInsight Enterprises(NSIT) rounded out the top 10.\nGameStop has undergone wide swings this year. It rocketed about 2,500% early this year amid theshort-squeeze rallyfueled by the Reddit/WallStreetBets crowd.GME stockthen crashed 92% from a Jan. 28 high to its mid-February low. That was followed by an 805% surge the next three weeks, and a 66% drop over the next two weeks.\nAction had been relatively subdued since, until Thursday's 27% dive. Even after that, GameStop stock was up 1,070% year to date through Thursday's close.\nCould GME be inflating SLYV's performance? Certainly, given its quadruple-digit gain. But a look at SLYG's portfolio is interesting. GameStop stock is also the top holding in the growth stock ETF, though the rest of the top 10 differ vastly.\nSecond Meme Stock In Top 10\nPDC Energy, up 130%, saw the next biggest gain in the top 10. The Colorado-based oil and gas explorer has a 97Relative Strength Rating, which mean it's in the top 3% of all stocks. Its relative strength line is at a 52-week high, a bullish sign.\nBed Bath & Beyond, another meme stock, is up 78% this year. Shares surged more than 200% in January, amid a spate of wild double-digit swings. BBBY stock then gave back the bulk of its gains.\nBut the home goods retailer appears to be back on the radar of the WallStreetBets discussion group. On June 2, Bed Bath & Beyond soared 62% before diving 28% the next session.\nThe rest of the top 10 stocks have also outperformed the broader market. Macy's is up 68% year to date, while Resideo, Pacific Premier and Ameris have risen more than 40% each. The lowest gainer, bank holding company First Hawaiian, has advanced 20%. The S&P 500 held a 13% gain through Thursday's close.\nSLYV remains in potential buy range from an 87.29entryof acup with handle, according toMarketSmithchart analysis. SLYV and SLYG charge a 0.15% expense ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"PDCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189151224,"gmtCreate":1623248923168,"gmtModify":1631892121211,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;","listText":"[USD]&nbsp;[USD]&nbsp;","text":"[USD] [USD]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189151224","repostId":"1166610769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117411713,"gmtCreate":1623156720132,"gmtModify":1631892121215,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go!","listText":"Go!","text":"Go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117411713","repostId":"1189074704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115629016,"gmtCreate":1622988418435,"gmtModify":1631892121221,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115629016","repostId":"1102972710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116404799,"gmtCreate":1622814417811,"gmtModify":1631892121221,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116404799","repostId":"2137130279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118946838,"gmtCreate":1622715762724,"gmtModify":1631892121224,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118946838","repostId":"2140444382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140444382","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622712684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140444382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As Epic fight puts all eyes on App Store revenue, Apple offers numbers that aim much larger<blockquote>随着Epic fight将所有目光都集中在App Store收入上，苹果提供的数字目标要大得多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140444382","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After keeping actual App Store figures from public view during antitrust trial, researchers paid by ","content":"<p>After keeping actual App Store figures from public view during antitrust trial, researchers paid by Apple report that App Store 'facilitated' sales of more than $600 billion in 2020 and avoid any mention of the word 'profit'</p><p><blockquote>在反垄断审判期间不让公众看到App Store的实际数据后，苹果付费的研究人员报告称，App Store在2020年“促进”了超过6000亿美元的销售额，并避免提及“利润”一词</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d6522c2d190b55acf8a142a29827d6e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"877\"><span>Apple Inc. revealed Wednesday a study it commissioned from researchers detailing the scope of the App Store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果公司周三公布了其委托研究人员进行的一项研究，详细介绍了App Store的范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Amid scrutiny from regulators and developers, Apple Inc. gave numbers on Wednesday that illustrate the immense size and scope of the App Store, but again avoided providing hard figures for revenue and profit from the online marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>在监管机构和开发商的审查中，苹果公司周三给出的数据说明了App Store的巨大规模和范围，但再次避免提供在线市场收入和利润的硬数据。</blockquote></p><p> The App Store ecosystem \"facilitated\" $643 billion in global billings and sales last year, up 24% from $519 billion in 2019, according to Analysis Group, a third-party research organization hired by Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> to conduct the 30-page report. The word \"profit\" does not appear in the report.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果聘请的第三方研究机构Analysis Group的数据，App Store生态系统去年“促进”了6430亿美元的全球账单和销售额，比2019年的5190亿美元增长了24%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>进行30页的报告。报告中没有出现“利润”一词。</blockquote></p><p> The independent study, done with the cooperation of Apple in conjunction with the company's World Wide Developers Conference, or WWDC, next week, offered another snapshot of the economic behemoth whose revenue and profitability was a fiercely guarded secret during Apple's contentious antitrust case v. Epic Games Inc. The maker of Fortnite contends the 12-year-old App Store is a money-gouging monopoly that has enriched Apple with billions of dollars in profits at the expense of developers.</p><p><blockquote>这项独立研究是在苹果与该公司下周举行的全球开发者大会（WWDC）的合作下完成的，提供了这家经济巨头的另一个快照，在苹果有争议的反垄断案件中，该公司的收入和盈利能力一直是一个严格保守的秘密。.Epic Games Inc.堡垒之夜的制造商声称，这个已有12年历史的应用商店是一个赚钱的垄断企业，以牺牲开发者的利益为代价，为苹果带来了数十亿美元的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has never revealed revenue nor profit from the App Store, and figures it did provide an Epic expert witness were kept hidden from public view. The witness, Ned Barnes of the Berkeley Research Group, suggested that the App Store has profit margin approaching 80%, though Apple executives disputed that figure in testimony.</p><p><blockquote>苹果从未透露过App Store的收入或利润，而且它确实提供了一位史诗般的专家证人的数据也隐藏在公众视野之外。Berkeley Research Group的证人Ned Barnes表示，App Store的利润率接近80%，尽管苹果高管在证词中对这一数字提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the 3-week trial, Apple executives up to Chief Executive Tim Cook insisted they did not know if the App Store is profitable. Calculating P&amp;L, they said, was difficult because of the billions of dollars they spend on research and development, and the intricacies of the App Store's structure and payment systems.</p><p><blockquote>在为期3周的试验中，苹果高管直至首席执行官蒂姆·库克都坚称，他们不知道App Store是否盈利。他们表示，计算损益很困难，因为他们在研发上花费了数十亿美元，而且App Store的结构和支付系统错综复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The Analysis Group study pointedly concluded that about 90% of the $643 billion in billings and sales world-wide occurred outside of the App Store, and Apple collected no commission on those sales. China led the way with $300 billion, most of that through sales of physical goods and services using mobile payments, followed by the U.S. ($175 billion), Europe ($74 billion), and the rest of the world ($94 billion).</p><p><blockquote>Analysis Group的研究尖锐地得出结论，全球6430亿美元的账单和销售额中约90%发生在App Store之外，而苹果没有从这些销售中收取佣金。中国以3000亿美元领先，其中大部分是通过使用移动支付销售实物商品和服务，其次是美国（1750亿美元）、欧洲（740亿美元）和世界其他地区（940亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, billings and sales facilitated by the App Store ecosystem increased by 24% to $124 billion in 2020, the study found. While the digital goods and services category grew 41% to $86 billion during the pandemic, physical goods and services improved 24% to $511 billion. Travel and ride-hailing categories -- subsets of physical goods and services -- slumped a collective 30%. (Travel totaled $38 billion in 2020; ride-hailing was $26 billion.)</p><p><blockquote>研究发现，具体来说，App Store生态系统促进的账单和销售额在2020年增长了24%，达到1240亿美元。在疫情期间，数字商品和服务类别增长了41%，达到860亿美元，而实体商品和服务增长了24%，达到5110亿美元。旅行和叫车类别（实物商品和服务的子集）集体下跌了30%。（2020年出行总额为380亿美元；网约车为260亿美元。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Epic vs. Apple: The (predicted) verdict is in</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Epic vs.苹果：（预测）判决已出炉</b></blockquote></p><p> The researchers specifically stated that the closest figure they provided to App Store revenue -- the total amount of digital goods and services sold through apps -- was not actually analogous to that figure for Apple. The researchers included app revenue for services that were not purchased through the App Store but were used on Apple devices, and did not include enterprise-software revenue even if those apps were used on the devices.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员特别指出，他们提供的最接近应用商店收入的数字——通过应用销售的数字商品和服务的总量——实际上与苹果的数字并不相似。研究人员包括了不是通过App Store购买但在苹果设备上使用的服务的应用程序收入，并且不包括企业软件收入，即使这些应用程序在设备上使用。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the report, Apple played up the importance of small businesses on the App Store, which constitute more than 90% of all developers on the App Store. It says the number of small developers swelled 40% between 2015 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在整个报告中，苹果强调了App Store上小企业的重要性，这些企业占App Store上所有开发者的90%以上。报告称，2015年至2020年间，小型开发商的数量增加了40%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysis Group highlighted the work of developers <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>., media company Stitcher, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMBL\">Bumble Inc.</a> (BMBL), a dating app that is a rival of vocal Apple critic Match Group Inc. </p><p><blockquote>分析小组强调了开发人员的工作<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>媒体公司Stitcher和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMBL\">邦布尔公司。</a>（BMBL），一款约会应用程序，是直言不讳的苹果评论家Match Group Inc.的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The success of small developers, most of whom pay from nothing to a 15% commission fee to distribute apps over the vast App Store platform, offer a contrast to larger developers such as Epic, Match, Microsoft Corp., Spotify Technology, and Nvidia Corp. who have complained about the store's 30% commission fees as well as restrictive technology requirements.</p><p><blockquote>小型开发者的成功与Epic、Match、微软、Spotify Technology和Nvidia等大型开发者形成了鲜明对比，他们中的大多数人在庞大的App Store平台上分发应用程序，他们抱怨商店30%的佣金以及限制性的技术要求。</blockquote></p><p> The Analysis Group report adds another opaque layer to the mystery of just how much revenue, and profit, is generated by the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>Analysis Group的报告为App Store产生了多少收入和利润的谜团增添了另一层不透明的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Apple reported the earnings it paid to developers was about $39 billion world-wide in 2019, though it did not provide a similar figure for 2020. All told, the figure is well north of $100 billion since the App Store's launch in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>去年，苹果报告称，2019年其向全球开发商支付的收入约为390亿美元，但没有提供2020年的类似数字。总而言之，自2008年App Store推出以来，这一数字远高于1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has often referred to the App Store as an \"economic miracle\" and openly boasted about its success in a series of news releases that highlighted its contribution to the U.S. economy ($350 billion) ,jobs creation (300,000 new U.S. jobs), and theApp Store ecosystem ($519 billion in&nbsp;billings and sales world-wide in 2019).</p><p><blockquote>该公司经常将App Store称为“经济奇迹”，并在一系列新闻稿中公开吹嘘其成功，强调其对美国经济（3500亿美元）、创造就业机会（30万个美国新就业岗位）和App Store生态系统（2019年全球账单和销售额为5190亿美元）的贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As Epic fight puts all eyes on App Store revenue, Apple offers numbers that aim much larger<blockquote>随着Epic fight将所有目光都集中在App Store收入上，苹果提供的数字目标要大得多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs Epic fight puts all eyes on App Store revenue, Apple offers numbers that aim much larger<blockquote>随着Epic fight将所有目光都集中在App Store收入上，苹果提供的数字目标要大得多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-03 17:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After keeping actual App Store figures from public view during antitrust trial, researchers paid by Apple report that App Store 'facilitated' sales of more than $600 billion in 2020 and avoid any mention of the word 'profit'</p><p><blockquote>在反垄断审判期间不让公众看到App Store的实际数据后，苹果付费的研究人员报告称，App Store在2020年“促进”了超过6000亿美元的销售额，并避免提及“利润”一词</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d6522c2d190b55acf8a142a29827d6e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"877\"><span>Apple Inc. revealed Wednesday a study it commissioned from researchers detailing the scope of the App Store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果公司周三公布了其委托研究人员进行的一项研究，详细介绍了App Store的范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Amid scrutiny from regulators and developers, Apple Inc. gave numbers on Wednesday that illustrate the immense size and scope of the App Store, but again avoided providing hard figures for revenue and profit from the online marketplace.</p><p><blockquote>在监管机构和开发商的审查中，苹果公司周三给出的数据说明了App Store的巨大规模和范围，但再次避免提供在线市场收入和利润的硬数据。</blockquote></p><p> The App Store ecosystem \"facilitated\" $643 billion in global billings and sales last year, up 24% from $519 billion in 2019, according to Analysis Group, a third-party research organization hired by Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> to conduct the 30-page report. The word \"profit\" does not appear in the report.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果聘请的第三方研究机构Analysis Group的数据，App Store生态系统去年“促进”了6430亿美元的全球账单和销售额，比2019年的5190亿美元增长了24%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>进行30页的报告。报告中没有出现“利润”一词。</blockquote></p><p> The independent study, done with the cooperation of Apple in conjunction with the company's World Wide Developers Conference, or WWDC, next week, offered another snapshot of the economic behemoth whose revenue and profitability was a fiercely guarded secret during Apple's contentious antitrust case v. Epic Games Inc. The maker of Fortnite contends the 12-year-old App Store is a money-gouging monopoly that has enriched Apple with billions of dollars in profits at the expense of developers.</p><p><blockquote>这项独立研究是在苹果与该公司下周举行的全球开发者大会（WWDC）的合作下完成的，提供了这家经济巨头的另一个快照，在苹果有争议的反垄断案件中，该公司的收入和盈利能力一直是一个严格保守的秘密。.Epic Games Inc.堡垒之夜的制造商声称，这个已有12年历史的应用商店是一个赚钱的垄断企业，以牺牲开发者的利益为代价，为苹果带来了数十亿美元的利润。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has never revealed revenue nor profit from the App Store, and figures it did provide an Epic expert witness were kept hidden from public view. The witness, Ned Barnes of the Berkeley Research Group, suggested that the App Store has profit margin approaching 80%, though Apple executives disputed that figure in testimony.</p><p><blockquote>苹果从未透露过App Store的收入或利润，而且它确实提供了一位史诗般的专家证人的数据也隐藏在公众视野之外。Berkeley Research Group的证人Ned Barnes表示，App Store的利润率接近80%，尽管苹果高管在证词中对这一数字提出了质疑。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the 3-week trial, Apple executives up to Chief Executive Tim Cook insisted they did not know if the App Store is profitable. Calculating P&amp;L, they said, was difficult because of the billions of dollars they spend on research and development, and the intricacies of the App Store's structure and payment systems.</p><p><blockquote>在为期3周的试验中，苹果高管直至首席执行官蒂姆·库克都坚称，他们不知道App Store是否盈利。他们表示，计算损益很困难，因为他们在研发上花费了数十亿美元，而且App Store的结构和支付系统错综复杂。</blockquote></p><p> The Analysis Group study pointedly concluded that about 90% of the $643 billion in billings and sales world-wide occurred outside of the App Store, and Apple collected no commission on those sales. China led the way with $300 billion, most of that through sales of physical goods and services using mobile payments, followed by the U.S. ($175 billion), Europe ($74 billion), and the rest of the world ($94 billion).</p><p><blockquote>Analysis Group的研究尖锐地得出结论，全球6430亿美元的账单和销售额中约90%发生在App Store之外，而苹果没有从这些销售中收取佣金。中国以3000亿美元领先，其中大部分是通过使用移动支付销售实物商品和服务，其次是美国（1750亿美元）、欧洲（740亿美元）和世界其他地区（940亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, billings and sales facilitated by the App Store ecosystem increased by 24% to $124 billion in 2020, the study found. While the digital goods and services category grew 41% to $86 billion during the pandemic, physical goods and services improved 24% to $511 billion. Travel and ride-hailing categories -- subsets of physical goods and services -- slumped a collective 30%. (Travel totaled $38 billion in 2020; ride-hailing was $26 billion.)</p><p><blockquote>研究发现，具体来说，App Store生态系统促进的账单和销售额在2020年增长了24%，达到1240亿美元。在疫情期间，数字商品和服务类别增长了41%，达到860亿美元，而实体商品和服务增长了24%，达到5110亿美元。旅行和叫车类别（实物商品和服务的子集）集体下跌了30%。（2020年出行总额为380亿美元；网约车为260亿美元。）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Epic vs. Apple: The (predicted) verdict is in</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Epic vs.苹果：（预测）判决已出炉</b></blockquote></p><p> The researchers specifically stated that the closest figure they provided to App Store revenue -- the total amount of digital goods and services sold through apps -- was not actually analogous to that figure for Apple. The researchers included app revenue for services that were not purchased through the App Store but were used on Apple devices, and did not include enterprise-software revenue even if those apps were used on the devices.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员特别指出，他们提供的最接近应用商店收入的数字——通过应用销售的数字商品和服务的总量——实际上与苹果的数字并不相似。研究人员包括了不是通过App Store购买但在苹果设备上使用的服务的应用程序收入，并且不包括企业软件收入，即使这些应用程序在设备上使用。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the report, Apple played up the importance of small businesses on the App Store, which constitute more than 90% of all developers on the App Store. It says the number of small developers swelled 40% between 2015 and 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在整个报告中，苹果强调了App Store上小企业的重要性，这些企业占App Store上所有开发者的90%以上。报告称，2015年至2020年间，小型开发商的数量增加了40%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysis Group highlighted the work of developers <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>., media company Stitcher, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMBL\">Bumble Inc.</a> (BMBL), a dating app that is a rival of vocal Apple critic Match Group Inc. </p><p><blockquote>分析小组强调了开发人员的工作<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>媒体公司Stitcher和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMBL\">邦布尔公司。</a>（BMBL），一款约会应用程序，是直言不讳的苹果评论家Match Group Inc.的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> The success of small developers, most of whom pay from nothing to a 15% commission fee to distribute apps over the vast App Store platform, offer a contrast to larger developers such as Epic, Match, Microsoft Corp., Spotify Technology, and Nvidia Corp. who have complained about the store's 30% commission fees as well as restrictive technology requirements.</p><p><blockquote>小型开发者的成功与Epic、Match、微软、Spotify Technology和Nvidia等大型开发者形成了鲜明对比，他们中的大多数人在庞大的App Store平台上分发应用程序，他们抱怨商店30%的佣金以及限制性的技术要求。</blockquote></p><p> The Analysis Group report adds another opaque layer to the mystery of just how much revenue, and profit, is generated by the App Store.</p><p><blockquote>Analysis Group的报告为App Store产生了多少收入和利润的谜团增添了另一层不透明的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Apple reported the earnings it paid to developers was about $39 billion world-wide in 2019, though it did not provide a similar figure for 2020. All told, the figure is well north of $100 billion since the App Store's launch in 2008.</p><p><blockquote>去年，苹果报告称，2019年其向全球开发商支付的收入约为390亿美元，但没有提供2020年的类似数字。总而言之，自2008年App Store推出以来，这一数字远高于1000亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company has often referred to the App Store as an \"economic miracle\" and openly boasted about its success in a series of news releases that highlighted its contribution to the U.S. economy ($350 billion) ,jobs creation (300,000 new U.S. jobs), and theApp Store ecosystem ($519 billion in&nbsp;billings and sales world-wide in 2019).</p><p><blockquote>该公司经常将App Store称为“经济奇迹”，并在一系列新闻稿中公开吹嘘其成功，强调其对美国经济（3500亿美元）、创造就业机会（30万个美国新就业岗位）和App Store生态系统（2019年全球账单和销售额为5190亿美元）的贡献。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-epic-fight-puts-all-eyes-on-app-store-revenue-apple-offers-numbers-that-aim-much-larger-11622653992?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","EPOR":"Epic Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-epic-fight-puts-all-eyes-on-app-store-revenue-apple-offers-numbers-that-aim-much-larger-11622653992?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140444382","content_text":"After keeping actual App Store figures from public view during antitrust trial, researchers paid by Apple report that App Store 'facilitated' sales of more than $600 billion in 2020 and avoid any mention of the word 'profit'\nApple Inc. revealed Wednesday a study it commissioned from researchers detailing the scope of the App Store.\nAmid scrutiny from regulators and developers, Apple Inc. gave numbers on Wednesday that illustrate the immense size and scope of the App Store, but again avoided providing hard figures for revenue and profit from the online marketplace.\nThe App Store ecosystem \"facilitated\" $643 billion in global billings and sales last year, up 24% from $519 billion in 2019, according to Analysis Group, a third-party research organization hired by Apple $(AAPL)$ to conduct the 30-page report. The word \"profit\" does not appear in the report.\nThe independent study, done with the cooperation of Apple in conjunction with the company's World Wide Developers Conference, or WWDC, next week, offered another snapshot of the economic behemoth whose revenue and profitability was a fiercely guarded secret during Apple's contentious antitrust case v. Epic Games Inc. The maker of Fortnite contends the 12-year-old App Store is a money-gouging monopoly that has enriched Apple with billions of dollars in profits at the expense of developers.\nApple has never revealed revenue nor profit from the App Store, and figures it did provide an Epic expert witness were kept hidden from public view. The witness, Ned Barnes of the Berkeley Research Group, suggested that the App Store has profit margin approaching 80%, though Apple executives disputed that figure in testimony.\nThroughout the 3-week trial, Apple executives up to Chief Executive Tim Cook insisted they did not know if the App Store is profitable. Calculating P&L, they said, was difficult because of the billions of dollars they spend on research and development, and the intricacies of the App Store's structure and payment systems.\nThe Analysis Group study pointedly concluded that about 90% of the $643 billion in billings and sales world-wide occurred outside of the App Store, and Apple collected no commission on those sales. China led the way with $300 billion, most of that through sales of physical goods and services using mobile payments, followed by the U.S. ($175 billion), Europe ($74 billion), and the rest of the world ($94 billion).\nSpecifically, billings and sales facilitated by the App Store ecosystem increased by 24% to $124 billion in 2020, the study found. While the digital goods and services category grew 41% to $86 billion during the pandemic, physical goods and services improved 24% to $511 billion. Travel and ride-hailing categories -- subsets of physical goods and services -- slumped a collective 30%. (Travel totaled $38 billion in 2020; ride-hailing was $26 billion.)\nEpic vs. Apple: The (predicted) verdict is in\nThe researchers specifically stated that the closest figure they provided to App Store revenue -- the total amount of digital goods and services sold through apps -- was not actually analogous to that figure for Apple. The researchers included app revenue for services that were not purchased through the App Store but were used on Apple devices, and did not include enterprise-software revenue even if those apps were used on the devices.\nThroughout the report, Apple played up the importance of small businesses on the App Store, which constitute more than 90% of all developers on the App Store. It says the number of small developers swelled 40% between 2015 and 2020.\nAnalysis Group highlighted the work of developers Snap Inc., media company Stitcher, and Bumble Inc. (BMBL), a dating app that is a rival of vocal Apple critic Match Group Inc. \nThe success of small developers, most of whom pay from nothing to a 15% commission fee to distribute apps over the vast App Store platform, offer a contrast to larger developers such as Epic, Match, Microsoft Corp., Spotify Technology, and Nvidia Corp. who have complained about the store's 30% commission fees as well as restrictive technology requirements.\nThe Analysis Group report adds another opaque layer to the mystery of just how much revenue, and profit, is generated by the App Store.\nLast year, Apple reported the earnings it paid to developers was about $39 billion world-wide in 2019, though it did not provide a similar figure for 2020. All told, the figure is well north of $100 billion since the App Store's launch in 2008.\nThe company has often referred to the App Store as an \"economic miracle\" and openly boasted about its success in a series of news releases that highlighted its contribution to the U.S. economy ($350 billion) ,jobs creation (300,000 new U.S. jobs), and theApp Store ecosystem ($519 billion in billings and sales world-wide in 2019).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"EPOR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111082374,"gmtCreate":1622644487298,"gmtModify":1631892121228,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Miss you","listText":"Miss you","text":"Miss you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111082374","repostId":"1141662964","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119293522,"gmtCreate":1622547227467,"gmtModify":1631892121229,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119293522","repostId":"1107522849","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107522849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622546178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107522849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107522849","media":"TheStreet","summary":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?Anew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.Pi","content":"<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将来临？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote></p><p>   “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”  <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的意见</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>  <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock To Sink 30%? Inside The Mind Of A Bear<blockquote>苹果股价将下跌30%？在熊的脑海里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-01 19:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?</p><p><blockquote>有一只新熊在苹果果园游荡。正如一位华尔街分析师所说，苹果股价会比当前水平下跌约30%吗？</blockquote></p><p> Anew bear has&nbsp;emerged&nbsp;from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.</p><p><blockquote>一只新的熊从洞穴中出现了。New Street的Pierre Ferragu认为，苹果股票现在处于卖出状态，较之前的中性立场有所下调，股价可能会从当前水平下跌近30%，至仅90美元。</blockquote></p><p> The Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家深入了解了这位华尔街怀疑论者的内心，以更好地了解当今投资苹果股票的潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3a0c90859283b1acacd5c5258f1e15\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\"><span>Figure 1: Wall Street bear.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：华尔街熊。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>“12S cycle” coming up?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“12S周期”即将来临？</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally&nbsp;threw in the towel&nbsp;after the Cupertino company delivered&nbsp;a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal&nbsp;maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.</p><p><blockquote>新街实际上是当今华尔街唯一真正的苹果空头。高盛(Goldman Sachs)著名怀疑论者罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)在这家库比蒂诺公司第二财季业绩破纪录后终于认输了。Wolfe Research的Jeff Kvaal维持卖出评级，但目标价为125美元，表明下行风险最小。</blockquote></p><p> Pierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the&nbsp;so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔·费拉古更深入。在他看来，苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜中。分析师的观点强化了这一点，即这家库比蒂诺公司即将推出的智能手机可能是更新有限的“12S型号”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:</p><p><blockquote>除了即将推出的2021年iPhone机型令人印象深刻之外，Ferragu先生下面的引述进一步说明了他的悲观论点：</blockquote></p><p>   “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”  <b>Plugging some numbers</b></p><p><blockquote>“关键问题是明年的情况如何，因为当前的超级周期带来了需求[……]，而且随着经济重新开放，消费者在消费电子产品上的支出减少。”<b>插入一些数字</b></blockquote></p><p> New Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.</p><p><blockquote>New Street提供了一些数据来支持30%的下行风险。该分析师表示，2022年iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，处于指导范围的中点。</blockquote></p><p> If ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果ASP（平均售价）保持在较高水平，就像2021财年前两个季度的情况一样，看跌情况表明明年iPhone的收入约为1500亿美元。按照这些水平，在COVID-19危机和大流行复苏期间，iPhone销量每年将小幅增长5%，而我估计市场普遍增长近20%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到iPhone与苹果财务业绩的相关性（2020财年占公司总销售额的50%），低增长前景可能会导致估值压缩。双重打击将以落后于共识的每股收益的形式出现，需要两者的结合来支持New Street 90美元的股价目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s opinion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的意见</b></blockquote></p><p> One thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是明确的：股价可能会剧烈波动并大幅回调。苹果股票对痛苦的回调并不陌生。如下图所示，股价此前曾多次较峰值下跌40%或更多（目前为12%，加上New Street预计的近30%的跌幅）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065aa03f398ac3a8622598724e214a02\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"398\"><span>Figure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL自IPO以来的最大回撤。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.</p><p><blockquote>但在我看来，AAPL要回到90美元——这是自疫情最严重时期以来从未见过的水平，还需要出很多问题。从2021年更高的平均售价到远远超过居家购买热潮高峰的销量增长，iPhone似乎正在经历长期而非暂时的需求增长。</blockquote></p><p> Weakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>iPhone的疲软可能也需要伴随着其他细分市场的疲软业绩。换句话说，苹果的麻烦必须更广泛，而不是特定产品。对我来说，这只有在两个关键假设下才有可能：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;</li>  <li>The economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.</li> </ul> At the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>大流行后的“恢复正常”确实会导致可自由支配支出有意义地从科技设备和服务转移——我对此持怀疑态度；</li><li>经济将经历一场双底衰退，财政和货币刺激无法很好地补救——我也认为这种情况不太可能发生。</li></ul>归根结底，AAPL 90美元是有可能的——但在我看来可能性不大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-to-sink-30-inside-the-mind-of-a-bear","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107522849","content_text":"There is a new bear roaming the Apple orchard. Could Apple stock dip about 30% from current levels, as one Wall Street analyst argues?\nAnew bear has emerged from its cave. New Street’s Pierre Ferragu believes that Apple stock is now a sell, downgraded from his previous neutral stance, and that shares could sink by nearly 30% from current levels to only $90.\nThe Apple Maven gets inside the mind of this Wall Street skeptic to better understand the potential risks of investing in Apple stock today.\nFigure 1: Wall Street bear.\n“12S cycle” coming up?\nNew Street is effectively the only true Apple bear on Wall Street today. Famed skeptic Rod Hall, at Goldman Sachs, finally threw in the towel after the Cupertino company delivered a record-breaking fiscal second quarter. Wolfe Research’s Jeff Kvaal maintains his sell rating, but at a high price target of $125 that suggests minimal downside risk.\nPierre Ferragu goes deeper. In his view, the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave, the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror. The point was reinforced by the analyst’s views that the Cupertino company’s upcoming smartphone will probably be a “12S model” with limited updates.\nIn addition to an underwhelming 2021 iPhone model in the pipeline, Mr. Ferragu’s bearish thesis is further illustrated by his quote below:\n\n “The key question is how things shape up for next year, as the current super cycle has brought forward demand […] and consumers spend less on consumer electronics as the economy re-opens.”\n\nPlugging some numbers\nNew Street offered some figures to back up the 30% downside risk. According to the analyst, 2022 iPhone shipments would land at 190 million units, at the mid-point of the guidance range.\nIf ASPs (average selling prices) remain elevated, as they have been in the first two quarters of fiscal 2021, the bear case points at next-year iPhone revenues of around $150 billion. At these levels, iPhone sales would have increased by a modest 5% per year through the COVID-19 crisis and pandemic recovery, against what I estimate to be nearly 20% consensus growth.\nConsidering how relevant the iPhone still is to Apple’s financial performance (50% of total company sales in fiscal 2020), low growth prospects would likely lead to valuation compression. The double whammy would come in the form of consensus-lagging EPS, a combination of which would be needed to support New Street’s $90 share price target.\nThe Apple Maven’s opinion\nOne thing is clear: stock prices can swing wildly and correct sharply. Apple stock is no stranger to painful pullbacks. Shares have dipped by 40% or more from the peak (12% currently, plus the nearly 30% decline expected by New Street) several times before, as the chart below suggests.\nFigure 2: Maximum drawdown in AAPL since IPO.\nBut quite a bit would have to go wrong, in my opinion, for AAPL to return to $90 – levels not seen since the thick of the pandemic. From higher ASPs in 2021 to increased sales well past the peak of the stay-at-home buying spree, the iPhone seems to be experiencing a secular, not temporary increase in demand.\nWeakness in iPhone would likely need to come along muted results in other segments as well. In other words, Apple’s troubles would have to be broader, rather than product specific. To me, this would only be possible under two key assumptions:\n\nThe post-pandemic “return to normal” will, indeed, cause discretionary spending to shift meaningfully away from tech devices and services – which I am skeptical about;\nThe economy will endure a double-dip recession that cannot be remedied as well by fiscal and monetary stimuli –something that I also believe to be of low probability.\n\nAt the end of the day, AAPL $90 is possible – just not highly likely, in my view.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":110290879,"gmtCreate":1622455555791,"gmtModify":1631892121234,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580510466646622","idStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110290879","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":110290879,"gmtCreate":1622455555791,"gmtModify":1631892121234,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580510466646622","authorIdStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110290879","repostId":"1198461252","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108364686,"gmtCreate":1620001181345,"gmtModify":1634208692894,"author":{"id":"3580510466646622","authorId":"3580510466646622","name":"2723cf4c","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580510466646622","authorIdStr":"3580510466646622"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Uber? What Uber?","listText":"Uber? What Uber?","text":"Uber? What Uber?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/108364686","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135819410?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Uber、辉瑞、PayPal、T-Mobile、ViacomCBS、General Motors等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-03 07:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p><blockquote>又是财报密集的一周，130家标普500公司即将发布第一季度业绩。雅诗兰黛是周一的亮点之一，周二情况有所好转：动视暴雪、CVS Health、杜邦、辉瑞和T-Mobile US均报告。</blockquote></p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、General Motors、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies将发布财报。百威英博、Moderna、再生元制药、Square和ViacomCBS将于周四发布。最后，Cigna将于周五结束这一周。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p><blockquote>在本周的经济日历上，主要事件将是周五的就业。美国劳工统计局预计将报告4月份非农就业人数增加97.5万人，失业率为5.8%，低于一个月前的6%。</blockquote></p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的其他数据包括供应管理协会周一公布的4月份制造业采购经理人指数和周三公布的服务业采购经理人指数。</blockquote></p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>企业产品合作伙伴和雅诗兰黛发布收益。</blockquote></p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>默克和Public Storage举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告三月份建筑支出数据。市场普遍预计建筑支出环比增长0.6%，经季节调整后的年率为1.53万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应研究所</b>管理层发布四月份制造业采购经理人指数。经济学家预测为65，与3月份的数据大致持平。3月份的读数是该指数自1983年12月以来的最高值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二5/4</b></blockquote></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>动视暴雪、康菲石油公司、康明斯、CVS Health、Dominion Energy、杜邦、伊顿、辉瑞、Sysco和T-Mobile US报告季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>礼来公司召开电话会议讨论其可持续发展计划。</blockquote></p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><blockquote>联合太平洋公司举办2021年虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三5/5</b></blockquote></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Barrick Gold、Booking Holdings、BorgWarner、Emerson Electric、General Motors、Hilton Worldwide Holdings、Novo Nordisk、PayPal控股和Uber Technologies发布财报。</blockquote></p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP释放</b>四月份全国就业报告。继3月份增加517,000个工作岗位后，预计私营部门就业岗位将增加762,500个。</blockquote></p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><blockquote><b>ISM版本</b>4月份服务业PMI。普遍的看涨期权为64.6，比3月份的数据高出一个百分点。3月份的读数是该指数的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四5/6</b></blockquote></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>百威英博、Becton Dickinson、Expedia Group、富达国家信息服务公司、家乐氏、林德、大都会人寿、Moderna、再生元制药、Square、ViacomCBS和Zoetishold在评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至5月1日当周首次申请失业救济人数。4月份平均每周初请失业金人数为611,750人，处于去年3月以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计数据报告了第一季度的劳动力成本和生产率。预计经季节调整后的生产率年增长率为2.2%，而2020年第四季度为下降4.2%。单位劳动力成本在此前上涨6%后预计将下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五5/7</b></blockquote></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布四月份就业报告。经济学家预测非农就业人数将增加975,000人。失业率预计将从6%小幅降至5.8%。</blockquote></p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>信诺和<b>自由媒体</b>报告收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","PFE":"辉瑞","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","PYPL":"PayPal","UBER":"优步",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report 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