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2021-10-25

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-08-08

Let’s go

2021-08-08

$Alibaba(BABA)$Sigh….

2021-08-05

Are’s go

2021-08-03

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2021-08-02

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2021-08-01

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Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote>

2021-07-30

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-26

$TENCENT(00700)$Pls like and comment

2021-07-26

Not looking good…… pls like and comment

2021-07-25

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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

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2021-07-24

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Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>

2021-07-23

$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-21

One big pop before earnings!

2021-07-21

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2021-07-21

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-20

$Micron Technology(MU)$I still believe

2021-07-20

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2021-07-19

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$in tears

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Sigh….","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Sigh….","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4df91b84483e868b3e275ab9859598d","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891265361","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899358781,"gmtCreate":1628163221043,"gmtModify":1633753045961,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Are’s go","listText":"Are’s go","text":"Are’s 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Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804706377","repostId":"1172747257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805230106,"gmtCreate":1627881912805,"gmtModify":1633755626025,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805230106","repostId":"2156169749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802685105,"gmtCreate":1627777021207,"gmtModify":1633756565969,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802685105","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, t","content":"<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日从洞穴中走了出来。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-0.42%下跌725点，跌幅2.1%。熊队打出了本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>和往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们也准备好了答案，从 COVID-19 的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售的原因有很多，所以把责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，导致销量下降的一个重要因素是自动的、计算机生成的销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始出售，就会出现疯狂的抢购潮。没有人愿意成为最后一个出局的人，因此零售商和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI-0.54%在周线上为71.36，这是一个极度超买的读数。这是否意味着明天指数将暴跌？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险地带的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息：熊队无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>空头还没来得及说 “我早就告诉过你 ”，第二天，也就是 7 月 20 日，道琼斯指数 700 多点的抛售就被道琼斯指数 550 点的反弹抹去了。公牛队忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯接一杯地啜饮着他们最喜欢的饮料 “bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次，公牛队的心中却涌起了一丝恐惧。以前，唯一的恐惧就是害怕错过下一次集会。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌时，您又经历了各种情绪，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如果你惊慌失措</b>：不要做某事；坐那儿。不买，不卖，坐稳就行了。事实上，关闭电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定下来时，重新评估你所拥有的。不要在这样的日子里做出任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场清醒过来时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 如果您不受影响：</b>尽管如此，检查你的投资组合，以确保你是适当的多元化。虽然人们不在乎市场是否下跌，但一定要为最坏的情况做好对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取哪些具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有所帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您拥有的股票或指数跌破 200 天移动平均线，请卖出。注：标准普尔 500SPX,-0.54% 等主要指数十年来从未跌破（并一直低于）其 200 天平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么，都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的美元成本平均值。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只拥有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天，这种策略不会奏效，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是一个产生额外收入的好方法。这种策略也是处理不需要的库存并获得报酬的理想选择。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>经过 13 年的牛市，美国股市的时间正在流逝。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但总有一天市场不会逆转方向，会开始大幅回调，甚至更糟的是，会进入熊市。这时，你会庆幸自己有一个计划和一个投资脚本，可以在最糟糕的日子里遵循。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解自己拥有什么，卖出到 “睡个好觉 ”点，分散投资各种金融产品，包括现金和债券。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出情绪化的决定，也不会焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日从洞穴中走了出来。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-0.42%下跌725点，跌幅2.1%。熊队打出了本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>和往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们也准备好了答案，从 COVID-19 的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售的原因有很多，所以把责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，导致销量下降的一个重要因素是自动的、计算机生成的销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始出售，就会出现疯狂的抢购潮。没有人愿意成为最后一个出局的人，因此零售商和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI-0.54%在周线上为71.36，这是一个极度超买的读数。这是否意味着明天指数将暴跌？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险地带的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息：熊队无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>空头还没来得及说 “我早就告诉过你 ”，第二天，也就是 7 月 20 日，道琼斯指数 700 多点的抛售就被道琼斯指数 550 点的反弹抹去了。公牛队忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯接一杯地啜饮着他们最喜欢的饮料 “bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次，公牛队的心中却涌起了一丝恐惧。以前，唯一的恐惧就是害怕错过下一次集会。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌时，您又经历了各种情绪，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如果你惊慌失措</b>：不要做某事；坐那儿。不买，不卖，坐稳就行了。事实上，关闭电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定下来时，重新评估你所拥有的。不要在这样的日子里做出任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场清醒过来时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 如果您不受影响：</b>尽管如此，检查你的投资组合，以确保你是适当的多元化。虽然人们不在乎市场是否下跌，但一定要为最坏的情况做好对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取哪些具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有所帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您拥有的股票或指数跌破 200 天移动平均线，请卖出。注：标准普尔 500SPX,-0.54% 等主要指数十年来从未跌破（并一直低于）其 200 天平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么，都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的美元成本平均值。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只拥有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天，这种策略不会奏效，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是一个产生额外收入的好方法。这种策略也是处理不需要的库存并获得报酬的理想选择。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>经过 13 年的牛市，美国股市的时间正在流逝。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但总有一天市场不会逆转方向，会开始大幅回调，甚至更糟的是，会进入熊市。这时，你会庆幸自己有一个计划和一个投资脚本，可以在最糟糕的日子里遵循。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解自己拥有什么，卖出到 “睡个好觉 ”点，分散投资各种金融产品，包括现金和债券。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出情绪化的决定，也不会焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806230349,"gmtCreate":1627656619481,"gmtModify":1631888250925,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4c8138b161bda8f7c9ff35fb49760","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806230349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800661325,"gmtCreate":1627298740267,"gmtModify":1633766404828,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Pls like and comment","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Pls like and comment","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$Pls like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2413003dd62f09a9f69d2e07993ea758","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800661325","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800663540,"gmtCreate":1627298696780,"gmtModify":1633766405303,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","listText":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","text":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449ee1931050cb5e67a863b658a10fb4","width":"1125","height":"3147"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800663540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177687291,"gmtCreate":1627210779513,"gmtModify":1633767143287,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177687291","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM 股票被低估还是被高估？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>IBM 第二季度盈利超出分析师预期，云收入和营业利润率均有所提高。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM 连续四个季度收入下降，过去 34 个季度中有 30 个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多的透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊桑·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商用机器公司（IBM）是一家处于转型期的公司。对投资者来说不幸的是，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及传统业务的剥离。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播种的种子是否落在岩石地上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面的业务快速增长，并且在量子计算方面是一个潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前者行业的激烈竞争和后者行业的不确定前景。公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此 IBM 的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM 拥有合理且不断减少的债务负担和强劲的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来解决增长问题，同时剥离托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为 Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及它将承担的当前股息部分尚未披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司非 GAAP 每股收益为 2.33 美元，超出预期 0.04 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，收入为 187 亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了 7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的 IBM Z 大型机周期，同比下降 13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门占总收入的个位数比例较低，下降了 9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将大部分分拆为 Kyndryl，但增长持平。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极方面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去 12 个月，云总收入为 270 亿美元，增长了 15%，而本季度云收入增长了 13%，达到 70 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去 12 个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到 177 亿美元，调整后自由现金流总计 110 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM的立足点</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM充其量是一家三流IT公司，最坏的情况是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，要准确评估该股，投资者必须了解 IBM 的传统业务有很多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM 是世界上最大的 IT 服务公司，也是大型机的主要供应商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接都由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 的大型机系统处理了全球近 90% 的信用卡交易，全球 97% 的最大银行依赖 IBM 的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而旅游业80%的预订都是通过IBM系统进行的。这导致使用该公司的 IT 服务处理了 40 亿个航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息传输的风险，这是许多人不愿意采取的举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，企业越来越多地采用混合匹配的IT基础架构。反过来，这又侵蚀了 IBM 在客户转换成本方面的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍意识到 IBM 通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。不过，在摩根大通最近举行的投资者大会上，首席财务官吉姆-卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）在接受提问时，就混合云如何推动 IBM 其他一些部门的收入提出了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们每在混合云平台上投入1美元（在业务中），就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，卡瓦诺使用的是 drag 指的是与采用 IBM 混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都能从公司的软件和服务产品中获得 9 到 13 美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>因为混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，所以它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。医疗保健和金融服务领域的客户尤其关注这一点。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最新的研究也属于其他预测的范围，是由魔多情报公司进行的。该公司预测 2021 年至 2026 年的复合年增长率为 18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该意识到，该领域的主要运营商是思科 (CSCO)、惠普 (HPE)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、思杰系统 (CTXS) 和 IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云，还有另一个潜在增长来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>请原谅这个双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和 IBM 在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章《IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人》。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦推出，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多名客户。随着600亿美元的服务积压，新实体的预计收入将达到190亿美元。该公司的规模是其最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次拆分将使 IBM 从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务一半以上收入的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占该公司收入的 22%，将占销售额的 40% 以上。值得注意的是，该部门上一季度的收入同比增长了 12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 将保留 Red Hat 及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方最大的客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，仍有待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM已经转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道，该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图记录了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ycharts 数据 / 作者提供的图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与 Kyndryl 分拆相关的 30 亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计 IBM 到 2022 年将产生 120 亿至 130 亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层变动，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自 2019 年中期达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约 180 亿美元。IBM 维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司近期偿还债务的进展情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl 分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票被高估了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 股价交易价格为 141.13 美元。8 位分析师的 12 个月平均目标价为 153.50 美元。自上次收益报告以来，3 位分析师对该股的目标价为 151.33 美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均水平分别为 16.42 倍和 13.25 倍。这两个指标都远低于行业平均水平，行业平均水平都在三十分左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium 提供的 3 至 5 年期 PEG 为 1.16 倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后 IBM 增长的预期。挂钩比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中拥有根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为公司主要增长途径的云计算也可能导致公司一些传统业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务的快速增长是显而易见的： IBM 现在拥有 3200 多家客户使用公司的混合云平台。这几乎是红帽收购前数字的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。再加上 Kyndryl 发展缓慢的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，我们有理由相信 IBM 将实现更快的增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM 拥有稳健的资产负债表、强劲的收益率，当使用 PEG 比率作为股票估值的基础时，股票交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我将 IBM 评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期内最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者却获得了相当丰厚的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174378888,"gmtCreate":1627083225944,"gmtModify":1633768237054,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174378888","repostId":"2153984067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174373060,"gmtCreate":1627083084750,"gmtModify":1633768239250,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174373060","repostId":"1124707956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124707956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627053121,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124707956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124707956","media":"zerohedge","summary":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17 and t","content":"<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录过于自信。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这么做了，周一高盛的主要经纪服务观察到，随着标准普尔跌至 4,220 点，对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后开始抛售反弹并<b>周二，GS Prime book 出现了自 6 月 17 日以来最大的单日净销售额</b>（-2.2 SDs 与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比）以及自 2019 年 11 月以来最大的单一名称净销售额，由多头和空头销售（1.6 比 1）推动，因为所有地区的净销售额均以美元计算领先北美和 DM 亚洲，并由多头和空头销售（2.5 比 1）推动。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分反弹中持续存在。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime 对触底后走势的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>单只股票出现了自 19 年 11 月以来最大的 1 日净卖出额（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和 ETF 合计）的净买入额。</li><li>11 个行业中有 8 个行业被净卖出，以美元计算，其中医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业领先，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买居家住宿（GSXUSTAY</b>) 与连续第二天卖出 (GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>GSXUSTAY 的成分股再次集体净买入，并在多头买入的推动下出现了自 6 月 28 日以来最大的单日净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND 成员连续第二天集体净卖出，多头买入超过空头回补的避险资金流动。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净销售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件 (GSCBSF8X)</b>– 篮子成分股连续第二天集体净买入，并出现了年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，完全由多头买入推动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG 中的风险规避 (GSTMTMEG</b>) – TMT 大盘股总体净卖出幅度不大，完全由多头卖出推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而异。该集团在过去 10 个交易日中有 9 个交易日（7/19 除外）集体净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>和视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金的业绩意味着什么？尽管面临重创，高盛指出，基本面 LS 经理连续第三天经历了正 alpha 和 MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨天（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%。</li><li>系统性LS-0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li><li>系统性LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆率已经下降MTD；虽然基本的LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19个百分位，但净资产仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录过于自信。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这么做了，周一高盛的主要经纪服务观察到，随着标准普尔跌至 4,220 点，对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后开始抛售反弹并<b>周二，GS Prime book 出现了自 6 月 17 日以来最大的单日净销售额</b>（-2.2 SDs 与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比）以及自 2019 年 11 月以来最大的单一名称净销售额，由多头和空头销售（1.6 比 1）推动，因为所有地区的净销售额均以美元计算领先北美和 DM 亚洲，并由多头和空头销售（2.5 比 1）推动。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分反弹中持续存在。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime 对触底后走势的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>单只股票出现了自 19 年 11 月以来最大的 1 日净卖出额（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和 ETF 合计）的净买入额。</li><li>11 个行业中有 8 个行业被净卖出，以美元计算，其中医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业领先，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买居家住宿（GSXUSTAY</b>) 与连续第二天卖出 (GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>GSXUSTAY 的成分股再次集体净买入，并在多头买入的推动下出现了自 6 月 28 日以来最大的单日净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND 成员连续第二天集体净卖出，多头买入超过空头回补的避险资金流动。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净销售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件 (GSCBSF8X)</b>– 篮子成分股连续第二天集体净买入，并出现了年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，完全由多头买入推动。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG 中的风险规避 (GSTMTMEG</b>) – TMT 大盘股总体净卖出幅度不大，完全由多头卖出推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而异。该集团在过去 10 个交易日中有 9 个交易日（7/19 除外）集体净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>和视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金的业绩意味着什么？尽管面临重创，高盛指出，基本面 LS 经理连续第三天经历了正 alpha 和 MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨天（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%。</li><li>系统性LS-0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li><li>系统性LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面 LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆率已经下降MTD；虽然基本的LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19个百分位，但净资产仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124707956","content_text":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.\nAs Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.\nSome more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:\n\nSingle names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).\n8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.\nDespite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.\nBuying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.\n\n\nConstituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.\nMembers of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.\n\n\nBuying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.\nRisk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nWhat does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD\nYesterday (July 20th)\n\nFundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.\nSystematic LS -0.2%\n\nJuly MTD\n\nFundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%\nSystematic LS +1.5%\n\n2021 YTD\n\nFundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%\nSystematic LS +12.2%\n\nFinally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172492169,"gmtCreate":1626970210851,"gmtModify":1631888250980,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb38af0b69728c75432f34b213e89c5d","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172492169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176197916,"gmtCreate":1626869848135,"gmtModify":1631883982112,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"One big pop before earnings!","listText":"One big pop before earnings!","text":"One big pop before earnings!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58463597286ea8c46467943bfc2d8323","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176197916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176194367,"gmtCreate":1626869787559,"gmtModify":1633770283784,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176194367","repostId":"2153271610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176347120,"gmtCreate":1626867114160,"gmtModify":1631888250992,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0657da2e2e2fc7b9ca74bb5729be25eb","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176347120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171267037,"gmtCreate":1626746774129,"gmtModify":1631883829129,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>I still believe","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>I still believe","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$I still believe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b858dc8f046367d072a36b061f9c1fd8","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171267037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171217189,"gmtCreate":1626746133241,"gmtModify":1633771457548,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171217189","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173729775,"gmtCreate":1626688454497,"gmtModify":1631888250997,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>in tears","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>in tears","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$in tears","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6639587346694967acb84fec2750a995","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173729775","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":137334302,"gmtCreate":1622297834806,"gmtModify":1634102454205,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But&nbsp;I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","listText":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But&nbsp;I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","text":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137334302","repostId":"1105615218","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805230106,"gmtCreate":1627881912805,"gmtModify":1633755626025,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805230106","repostId":"2156169749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171217189,"gmtCreate":1626746133241,"gmtModify":1633771457548,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171217189","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176194367,"gmtCreate":1626869787559,"gmtModify":1633770283784,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176194367","repostId":"2153271610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1075,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186045636,"gmtCreate":1623467009625,"gmtModify":1634032778010,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Quiet week ahead","listText":"Quiet week ahead","text":"Quiet week ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186045636","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134884663,"gmtCreate":1622215941552,"gmtModify":1631883989023,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","listText":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","text":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134884663","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173720160,"gmtCreate":1626688309450,"gmtModify":1633924925852,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173720160","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154509594,"gmtCreate":1625532405818,"gmtModify":1633939956237,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice. Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Nice. Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Nice. Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154509594","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125201599,"gmtCreate":1624673593111,"gmtModify":1633949768343,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125201599","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802685105,"gmtCreate":1627777021207,"gmtModify":1633756565969,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3580987013176063","authorIdStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802685105","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, t","content":"<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日从洞穴中走了出来。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-0.42%下跌725点，跌幅2.1%。熊队打出了本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>和往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们也准备好了答案，从 COVID-19 的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售的原因有很多，所以把责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，导致销量下降的一个重要因素是自动的、计算机生成的销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始出售，就会出现疯狂的抢购潮。没有人愿意成为最后一个出局的人，因此零售商和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI-0.54%在周线上为71.36，这是一个极度超买的读数。这是否意味着明天指数将暴跌？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险地带的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息：熊队无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>空头还没来得及说 “我早就告诉过你 ”，第二天，也就是 7 月 20 日，道琼斯指数 700 多点的抛售就被道琼斯指数 550 点的反弹抹去了。公牛队忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯接一杯地啜饮着他们最喜欢的饮料 “bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次，公牛队的心中却涌起了一丝恐惧。以前，唯一的恐惧就是害怕错过下一次集会。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌时，您又经历了各种情绪，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如果你惊慌失措</b>：不要做某事；坐那儿。不买，不卖，坐稳就行了。事实上，关闭电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定下来时，重新评估你所拥有的。不要在这样的日子里做出任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场清醒过来时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 如果您不受影响：</b>尽管如此，检查你的投资组合，以确保你是适当的多元化。虽然人们不在乎市场是否下跌，但一定要为最坏的情况做好对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取哪些具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有所帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您拥有的股票或指数跌破 200 天移动平均线，请卖出。注：标准普尔 500SPX,-0.54% 等主要指数十年来从未跌破（并一直低于）其 200 天平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么，都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的美元成本平均值。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只拥有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天，这种策略不会奏效，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是一个产生额外收入的好方法。这种策略也是处理不需要的库存并获得报酬的理想选择。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>经过 13 年的牛市，美国股市的时间正在流逝。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但总有一天市场不会逆转方向，会开始大幅回调，甚至更糟的是，会进入熊市。这时，你会庆幸自己有一个计划和一个投资脚本，可以在最糟糕的日子里遵循。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解自己拥有什么，卖出到 “睡个好觉 ”点，分散投资各种金融产品，包括现金和债券。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出情绪化的决定，也不会焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>以下是您在股市下一次暴跌前的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日从洞穴中走了出来。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数JIA,-0.42%下跌725点，跌幅2.1%。熊队打出了本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>和往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们也准备好了答案，从 COVID-19 的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售的原因有很多，所以把责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，导致销量下降的一个重要因素是自动的、计算机生成的销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始出售，就会出现疯狂的抢购潮。没有人愿意成为最后一个出局的人，因此零售商和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI-0.54%在周线上为71.36，这是一个极度超买的读数。这是否意味着明天指数将暴跌？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险地带的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息：熊队无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>空头还没来得及说 “我早就告诉过你 ”，第二天，也就是 7 月 20 日，道琼斯指数 700 多点的抛售就被道琼斯指数 550 点的反弹抹去了。公牛队忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯接一杯地啜饮着他们最喜欢的饮料 “bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次，公牛队的心中却涌起了一丝恐惧。以前，唯一的恐惧就是害怕错过下一次集会。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌时，您又经历了各种情绪，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 如果你惊慌失措</b>：不要做某事；坐那儿。不买，不卖，坐稳就行了。事实上，关闭电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定下来时，重新评估你所拥有的。不要在这样的日子里做出任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2. 如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场清醒过来时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3. 如果您不受影响：</b>尽管如此，检查你的投资组合，以确保你是适当的多元化。虽然人们不在乎市场是否下跌，但一定要为最坏的情况做好对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取哪些具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有所帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您拥有的股票或指数跌破 200 天移动平均线，请卖出。注：标准普尔 500SPX,-0.54% 等主要指数十年来从未跌破（并一直低于）其 200 天平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么，都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的美元成本平均值。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只拥有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天，这种策略不会奏效，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是一个产生额外收入的好方法。这种策略也是处理不需要的库存并获得报酬的理想选择。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>经过 13 年的牛市，美国股市的时间正在流逝。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但总有一天市场不会逆转方向，会开始大幅回调，甚至更糟的是，会进入熊市。这时，你会庆幸自己有一个计划和一个投资脚本，可以在最糟糕的日子里遵循。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解自己拥有什么，卖出到 “睡个好觉 ”点，分散投资各种金融产品，包括现金和债券。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出情绪化的决定，也不会焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}