JKKT的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JKKT

JKKT

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

162关注

18粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-10-25

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-08-08

Let’s go

2021-08-08

$Alibaba(BABA)$Sigh….

2021-08-05

Are’s go

2021-08-03

Please like and comment. Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-02

Pls like and comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

Pls like and comment. Thanks

Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>

2021-07-30

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-26

$TENCENT(00700)$Pls like and comment

2021-07-26

Not looking good…… pls like and comment

2021-07-25

Pls like and comment. Thanks

Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-24

Pls like and comment. Thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-24

Pls like and comment

Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>

2021-07-23

$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-21

One big pop before earnings!

2021-07-21

Pls like and comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-21

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go

2021-07-20

$Micron Technology(MU)$I still believe

2021-07-20

Pls like and comment

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$in tears

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3580987013176063","uuid":"3580987013176063","gmtCreate":1617943099919,"gmtModify":1620189711748,"name":"JKKT","pinyin":"jkkt","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":18,"headSize":162,"tweetSize":162,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.23","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.06.18","exceedPercentage":"80.10%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"80.69%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":856603515,"gmtCreate":1635171438003,"gmtModify":1635171438393,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f83c35335952e9d031bf07a21738b344","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856603515","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891264617,"gmtCreate":1628392779639,"gmtModify":1633747417037,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go","listText":"Let’s go","text":"Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee22f079938c53639b9962bb795b832","width":"1125","height":"2713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891264617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891265361,"gmtCreate":1628392678953,"gmtModify":1633747418168,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Sigh….","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Sigh….","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Sigh….","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4df91b84483e868b3e275ab9859598d","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891265361","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899358781,"gmtCreate":1628163221043,"gmtModify":1633753045961,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Are’s go","listText":"Are’s go","text":"Are’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b2ec895d90f4750573e4793c309c94d","width":"1125","height":"3060"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899358781","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804706377,"gmtCreate":1627977882999,"gmtModify":1633754708617,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804706377","repostId":"1172747257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805230106,"gmtCreate":1627881912805,"gmtModify":1633755626025,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805230106","repostId":"2156169749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802685105,"gmtCreate":1627777021207,"gmtModify":1633756565969,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802685105","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, t","content":"<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806230349,"gmtCreate":1627656619481,"gmtModify":1631888250925,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4c8138b161bda8f7c9ff35fb49760","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806230349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800661325,"gmtCreate":1627298740267,"gmtModify":1633766404828,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Pls like and comment","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>Pls like and comment","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$Pls like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2413003dd62f09a9f69d2e07993ea758","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800661325","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800663540,"gmtCreate":1627298696780,"gmtModify":1633766405303,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","listText":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","text":"Not looking good…… pls like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449ee1931050cb5e67a863b658a10fb4","width":"1125","height":"3147"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800663540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177687291,"gmtCreate":1627210779513,"gmtModify":1633767143287,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177687291","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174378888,"gmtCreate":1627083225944,"gmtModify":1633768237054,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174378888","repostId":"2153984067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174373060,"gmtCreate":1627083084750,"gmtModify":1633768239250,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174373060","repostId":"1124707956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124707956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627053121,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124707956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124707956","media":"zerohedge","summary":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17 and t","content":"<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录太有信心。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这样做了。周一，随着标准普尔指数跌至4,220点，高盛的大宗经纪服务观察到对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后继续抛售涨势并<b>周二，GS Prime book出现自6月17日以来最大的单日净卖出</b>（与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比-2.2 SDs）以及自2019年11月以来最大的单一名称净卖出，由多空销售推动（1.6比1），因为所有地区均净卖出北美和亚洲DM以美元计算，并由多空销售推动（2.5比1）。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分时间里一直持续。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime对触底后行动的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>个股出现了自19年11月以来最大的单日美元净卖出（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和ETF合计）的净买入。</li><li>11个行业中有8个行业被净卖出，以医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业为首，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买呆在家里（GSXUSTAY</b>)与连续第二天销售出去(GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>在多头买盘的推动下，GSXUSTAY的成分股再次集体净买入，并出现了自6月28日以来最大的单日美元净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND成员连续第二天集体净卖出，原因是避险资金流动，多头买入超过空头回补。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净抛售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件（GSCBSF8X）</b>-篮子成分股连续第二天被净买入，并出现年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，这完全是由多头买入推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG中的风险规避</b>)-TMT大型股总体上出现小幅净卖出，完全由多头销售推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而有所不同。该集团在过去10个交易日中有9个交易日（7/19除外）出现净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金业绩意味着什么？高盛指出，尽管出现了拉锯，基本面LS经理连续第三天经历了正的阿尔法和MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨日（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+0.8%(alpha+0.2%)vs MSCI TR+1.0%。</li><li>系统LS–0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS-0.7%(alpha+0.9%)vs MSCI TR-0.3%</li><li>系统LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+2.6%(alpha-5.7%)vs MSCI TR+12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆已下降MTD；虽然基本LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19百分位，但净收入仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录太有信心。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这样做了。周一，随着标准普尔指数跌至4,220点，高盛的大宗经纪服务观察到对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后继续抛售涨势并<b>周二，GS Prime book出现自6月17日以来最大的单日净卖出</b>（与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比-2.2 SDs）以及自2019年11月以来最大的单一名称净卖出，由多空销售推动（1.6比1），因为所有地区均净卖出北美和亚洲DM以美元计算，并由多空销售推动（2.5比1）。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分时间里一直持续。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime对触底后行动的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>个股出现了自19年11月以来最大的单日美元净卖出（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和ETF合计）的净买入。</li><li>11个行业中有8个行业被净卖出，以医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业为首，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买呆在家里（GSXUSTAY</b>)与连续第二天销售出去(GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>在多头买盘的推动下，GSXUSTAY的成分股再次集体净买入，并出现了自6月28日以来最大的单日美元净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND成员连续第二天集体净卖出，原因是避险资金流动，多头买入超过空头回补。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净抛售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件（GSCBSF8X）</b>-篮子成分股连续第二天被净买入，并出现年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，这完全是由多头买入推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG中的风险规避</b>)-TMT大型股总体上出现小幅净卖出，完全由多头销售推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而有所不同。该集团在过去10个交易日中有9个交易日（7/19除外）出现净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金业绩意味着什么？高盛指出，尽管出现了拉锯，基本面LS经理连续第三天经历了正的阿尔法和MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨日（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+0.8%(alpha+0.2%)vs MSCI TR+1.0%。</li><li>系统LS–0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS-0.7%(alpha+0.9%)vs MSCI TR-0.3%</li><li>系统LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+2.6%(alpha-5.7%)vs MSCI TR+12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆已下降MTD；虽然基本LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19百分位，但净收入仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124707956","content_text":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.\nAs Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.\nSome more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:\n\nSingle names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).\n8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.\nDespite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.\nBuying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.\n\n\nConstituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.\nMembers of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.\n\n\nBuying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.\nRisk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nWhat does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD\nYesterday (July 20th)\n\nFundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.\nSystematic LS -0.2%\n\nJuly MTD\n\nFundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%\nSystematic LS +1.5%\n\n2021 YTD\n\nFundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%\nSystematic LS +12.2%\n\nFinally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172492169,"gmtCreate":1626970210851,"gmtModify":1631888250980,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$CLF 20210806 20.0 PUT(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb38af0b69728c75432f34b213e89c5d","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172492169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176197916,"gmtCreate":1626869848135,"gmtModify":1631883982112,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One big pop before earnings!","listText":"One big pop before earnings!","text":"One big pop before earnings!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58463597286ea8c46467943bfc2d8323","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176197916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176194367,"gmtCreate":1626869787559,"gmtModify":1633770283784,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176194367","repostId":"2153271610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176347120,"gmtCreate":1626867114160,"gmtModify":1631888250992,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>Let’s go","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$Let’s go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0657da2e2e2fc7b9ca74bb5729be25eb","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176347120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171267037,"gmtCreate":1626746774129,"gmtModify":1631883829129,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>I still believe","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>I still believe","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$I still believe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b858dc8f046367d072a36b061f9c1fd8","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171267037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171217189,"gmtCreate":1626746133241,"gmtModify":1633771457548,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171217189","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173729775,"gmtCreate":1626688454497,"gmtModify":1631888250997,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>in tears","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLF\">$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$</a>in tears","text":"$Cliffs Natural Resources(CLF)$in tears","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6639587346694967acb84fec2750a995","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173729775","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":137334302,"gmtCreate":1622297834806,"gmtModify":1634102454205,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But&nbsp;I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","listText":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But&nbsp;I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","text":"It’s all about the sentiments now. Anti-monopoly crackdown, big time competition, massive investments promised by Alibaba. These are just a few sentiments going against Alibaba now. But I strongly believe it is undervalued and Iam heavily vested and will even buy more closer to $200","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137334302","repostId":"1105615218","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805230106,"gmtCreate":1627881912805,"gmtModify":1633755626025,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805230106","repostId":"2156169749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171217189,"gmtCreate":1626746133241,"gmtModify":1633771457548,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171217189","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176194367,"gmtCreate":1626869787559,"gmtModify":1633770283784,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176194367","repostId":"2153271610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186045636,"gmtCreate":1623467009625,"gmtModify":1634032778010,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Quiet week ahead","listText":"Quiet week ahead","text":"Quiet week ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186045636","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134884663,"gmtCreate":1622215941552,"gmtModify":1631883989023,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","listText":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","text":"One of the most overvalued stock ever….","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134884663","repostId":"2138765488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173720160,"gmtCreate":1626688309450,"gmtModify":1633924925852,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173720160","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154509594,"gmtCreate":1625532405818,"gmtModify":1633939956237,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice. Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Nice. Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Nice. Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154509594","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125201599,"gmtCreate":1624673593111,"gmtModify":1633949768343,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125201599","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802685105,"gmtCreate":1627777021207,"gmtModify":1633756565969,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802685105","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, t","content":"<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177687291,"gmtCreate":1627210779513,"gmtModify":1633767143287,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","text":"Pls like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177687291","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159182477,"gmtCreate":1624948555199,"gmtModify":1631883962852,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Targeting $90. Pls like and comment","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Targeting $90. Pls like and comment","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$Targeting $90. Pls like and comment","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0dc88bb7e26644524c684b332c57b3e","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159182477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189841167,"gmtCreate":1623252689359,"gmtModify":1634035283749,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Financial results for past 3 years are undergoing review…. Hmmm","listText":"Financial results for past 3 years are undergoing review…. Hmmm","text":"Financial results for past 3 years are undergoing review…. Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189841167","repostId":"2142321626","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116754319,"gmtCreate":1622820730631,"gmtModify":1634097642085,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very informative article on meme shares. Well researched&nbsp;","listText":"Very informative article on meme shares. Well researched&nbsp;","text":"Very informative article on meme shares. Well researched","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116754319","repostId":"2140409543","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140409543","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622818486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140409543?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140409543","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a ","content":"<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit WallStreetBets频道上讨论的许多模因股票在2021年上涨了三位数。（奥利维尔·杜利里/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票每天都主导着金融媒体。这是正确的——当交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获取巨额利润时，它们展示了沟通的力量。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司传统的盈利或销售增长衡量标准、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是创新产品或服务。但如此多的资金围绕这些股票进行交易，您至少应该了解正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>当然，试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者会关注每日交易量和股价的直接方向。但也有衡量人们在Reddit的WallStreetBets频道和其他社交媒体上交流的势头的指标。其中一种叫做“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者您可能想查看模因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为您反对它们的论据的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T.）是四家集团中的第一家，该集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司。但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只股票的列表中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值（百万美元）排序的：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都在飙升，尽管诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond的估值仅为两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成了1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是WallStreetBets上描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你就有无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨到多高。如果您直接购买股票（即持有多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格却走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会看涨期权收取保证金，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进入卖空交易之前会被经纪人告知这些规则。但当投资者耗尽现金时，保证金要求可能会导致轧空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在模因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets的工作人员能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票上下反弹，这种热潮仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>以下是年初至今的图表，显示了截至6月3日BANG股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头利息？以下是它们，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的空头头寸占流通股百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在当月25日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司4.2%的股票被卖空，但这相当于242亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为5830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，当游戏驿站拥有看似不可能的138%的空头权益时，负责多头和空头投资策略的康涅狄格州西港ActiveAlts首席执行官Brad Lamensdorf表示，空头百分比“超过30%至40%高得离谱”。当时我们列出了标准普尔综合1500指数中被做空25%或以上的30只股票。（Lamensdorf共同管理AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该ETF旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据FactSet的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票的空头比例为25%或以上：经营监狱的Geo Group Inc.，空头比例为33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头比例为28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，空头比例为25.8%。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空行为。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头兴趣较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒大流行对AMC产生了明显的残酷影响，其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家视频游戏零售商来说，游戏驿站多年来一直面临着一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，即使是针对主机游戏系统，而不是通过蓝光或其他在商店销售的媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易员能够通过Reddit和包括Robinhood在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年回顾</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看过去五个完整财年所有八家公司的销售业绩走向。我们关注的是财政年度，因为对于其中几家公司来说，财政年度与日历不匹配：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在疫情爆发之前，AMC的销售额就在2019年有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司是一家生产移动电信设备的公司，而不是苹果公司或三星公司，取得了令人印象深刻的销售数据。游戏驿站已经连续四年年销售额下降，而贝德柏士比昂公司(Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.)的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够充分利用他们筹集的所有资金会怎么样？从2021年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国大流行的大部分影响，在可能的情况下，以下是未来两年的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为FactSet无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对2023年进行预测的公司中，AMC预计销售复苏将接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到2023年销售额将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一栏是截至6月3日的市值与现有的最大销售估计的混合。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司与其他模因股票不同。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率预期的角度来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其组成部分公司2023年加权总销售额预期的2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对2023年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司的评级为“不适用”，因为AMC和黑莓的每股收益预期均为负值，而游戏驿站和Tilray的预期则从负到正再到负。对于预计将保持持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond）来说，当前价格与2023年每股收益预期的比率低于标普500 18.4的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>券商分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了12个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于多年来销售额和利润复合率较高的公司的长期投资者来说，这可能被认为太短了。但对于试图买入波动较大的模因股票以获取收益的交易者来说，这12个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪摘要（再次跳过Koss，该股票没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至6月3日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他模因股票，关注Reddit和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和高风险交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor<blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 22:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>AMC、游戏驿站和诺基亚被归为一类，但并非所有模因股票都是一样的——无论您是日内交易者还是长期投资者。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eb63d677cb5d8a8a6a2c67fc4bb2698\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"896\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Reddit WallStreetBets频道上讨论的许多模因股票在2021年上涨了三位数。（奥利维尔·杜利里/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票每天都主导着金融媒体。这是正确的——当交易者和投资者寻求跟随势头获取巨额利润时，它们展示了沟通的力量。</blockquote></p><p>It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易忽视这种现象，因为它不是基于公司传统的盈利或销售增长衡量标准、股价与收益或销售额的比率，甚至不是创新产品或服务。但如此多的资金围绕这些股票进行交易，您至少应该了解正在发生的事情。</blockquote></p><p>Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.</p><p><blockquote>当然，试图了解势头并快速获利的交易者会关注每日交易量和股价的直接方向。但也有衡量人们在Reddit的WallStreetBets频道和其他社交媒体上交流的势头的指标。其中一种叫做“社会情绪分析”，是由HypeEquity开发的，由Thornton McEnery在这里描述。</blockquote></p><p>But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.</p><p><blockquote>但您可能也对这些股票是否可以进行良好的长期投资感兴趣。或者您可能想查看模因股票的财务信息和标准股票估值，作为您反对它们的论据的一部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>The meme stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票</b></blockquote></p><p>In talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.</p><p><blockquote>在谈论模因股票时，有一个缩写词，BANG。黑莓有限公司（BB.T.）是四家集团中的第一家，该集团还包括AMC院线控股公司、诺基亚公司和游戏驿站公司。但还有另外四只模因股票最近在社交媒体上引起了很多关注和交易活动，我们可以将它们添加到八只股票的列表中。</blockquote></p><p>Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值（百万美元）排序的：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba33d56ca09708aa22c36412ba22e13\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond.</p><p><blockquote>AMC的市值今年增长了七倍多。所有上市模因股票的估值都在飙升，尽管诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond的估值仅为两位数。</blockquote></p><p>The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站的董事会各自利用交易员的兴奋情绪，向公众出售新股，筹集了数十亿美元。AMC于6月3日宣布并完成了1155万股新股的出售。</blockquote></p><p><b>Short interest</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头利息</b></blockquote></p><p>What started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.</p><p><blockquote>引发今年模因股票热潮的是WallStreetBets上描述的一个机会，即对严重做空的股票进行轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:</p><p><blockquote>以下是卖空及其风险的定义：</blockquote></p><p>So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你卖空股票，你就有无限的风险——你永远不知道它的价格会涨到多高。如果您直接购买股票（即持有多头头寸），您只承担了投资金额的风险。</blockquote></p><p>If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空了一只股票，而它的价格却走错了方向——上涨——你的经纪人可能会看涨期权收取保证金，这意味着你需要提供现金来弥补经纪人的风险。卖空者在进入卖空交易之前会被经纪人告知这些规则。但当投资者耗尽现金时，保证金要求可能会导致轧空。如果投资者/交易者没有维持所需的现金保证金，经纪人将强制出售股票。</blockquote></p><p>So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在模因股票狂热的早期阶段，WallStreetBets的工作人员能够作为一个群体购买被严重做空的股票，这推高了它们的价格，甚至导致专业人士（亏损）回补。由此产生的空头挤压为时机正确的交易者赚了很多钱。从那时起，随着模因股票上下反弹，这种热潮仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:</p><p><blockquote>以下是年初至今的图表，显示了截至6月3日BANG股票的总回报：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1dfc0cfac9109e4ee8cc15580a220e\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"1038\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:</p><p><blockquote>这八只股票现在有多少空头利息？以下是它们，再次按市值排名：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ed9c41992b0fdf7c30467bbb882e58\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的空头头寸占流通股百分比数据每月更新两次，第二次更新在当月25日左右。</blockquote></p><p>The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.</p><p><blockquote>“美元空头”数字很有趣，因为它为空头百分比提供了一些额外的视角。例如，特斯拉公司4.2%的股票被卖空，但这相当于242亿美元的空头利息，因为市值为5830亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&amp;P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，当游戏驿站拥有看似不可能的138%的空头权益时，负责多头和空头投资策略的康涅狄格州西港ActiveAlts首席执行官Brad Lamensdorf表示，空头百分比“超过30%至40%高得离谱”。当时我们列出了标准普尔综合1500指数中被做空25%或以上的30只股票。（Lamensdorf共同管理AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF，该ETF旨在用作对冲工具。）</blockquote></p><p>But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&amp;G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operator</p><p><blockquote>但现在，根据FactSet的最新数据，该指数中只有四只股票的空头比例为25%或以上：经营监狱的Geo Group Inc.，空头比例为33.2%，Bed Bath Beyond，PetMed Express Inc.，空头比例为28.7%，B&amp;G Foods Inc.，空头比例为25.8%。（回到Geo集团，拜登总统签署了一项行政命令，逐步取消与私营监狱运营商的联邦合同</blockquote></p><p>So this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.</p><p><blockquote>因此，今年对模因股票的行动对股市产生了相当大的影响，总体上平息了卖空行为。尽管如此，尽管诺基亚和科斯公司的空头兴趣较低，但这两只股票今年都出现了空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Meme stocks' fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票的基本面</b></blockquote></p><p>To analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.</p><p><blockquote>为了分析模因公司的财务业绩和前景，我们将回顾过去，然后展望未来。冠状病毒大流行对AMC产生了明显的残酷影响，其影院全部关闭。到3月底，它已经重新开放了几乎所有容量有限的美国影院。</blockquote></p><p>GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家视频游戏零售商来说，游戏驿站多年来一直面临着一个根本问题的挑战：更多的内容在网上销售，即使是针对主机游戏系统，而不是通过蓝光或其他在商店销售的媒体。</blockquote></p><p>So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，AMC和游戏驿站显然是做空的候选者，直到交易员能够通过Reddit和包括Robinhood在内的在线交易应用程序聚集在一起，造成空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p><b>Five-year review</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五年回顾</b></blockquote></p><p>First, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们看看过去五个完整财年所有八家公司的销售业绩走向。我们关注的是财政年度，因为对于其中几家公司来说，财政年度与日历不匹配：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d17671a0a5c84afe766af5c33337e8f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. has been a little better.</p><p><blockquote>甚至在疫情爆发之前，AMC的销售额就在2019年有所下降。诺基亚也是如此，尽管该公司是一家生产移动电信设备的公司，而不是苹果公司或三星公司，取得了令人印象深刻的销售数据。游戏驿站已经连续四年年销售额下降，而贝德柏士比昂公司(Bed Bath&amp;Beyond Inc.)的情况稍好一些。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——销售</b></blockquote></p><p>What if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果AMC和游戏驿站能够充分利用他们筹集的所有资金会怎么样？从2021年日历的基线开始，为了克服美国大流行的大部分影响，在可能的情况下，以下是未来两年的销售预测：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae59307eca7f4f03a7e0f0efb0b3b16\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.</p><p><blockquote>您可能已经注意到Koss不包括在销售预测表中。这是因为FactSet无法从经纪公司分析师那里获得该公司的任何财务估计、评级或目标。</blockquote></p><p>Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">Tilray Inc.</a> is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>在我们对2023年进行预测的公司中，AMC预计销售复苏将接近大流行前的水平。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">蒂尔雷公司。</a>预计大麻供应将继续增长。诺基亚预计到2023年销售额将小幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最右边的一栏是截至6月3日的市值与现有的最大销售估计的混合。诺基亚看起来很便宜，华尔街分析师也同意这一点，如下所示。这家公司与其他模因股票不同。</blockquote></p><p>Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.</p><p><blockquote>从这些市销率预期的角度来看，基准标普500指数的交易价格是其组成部分公司2023年加权总销售额预期的2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p><b>Looking ahead -- earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来——收益</b></blockquote></p><p>Let's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:</p><p><blockquote>如果可能的话，让我们对2023年的每股收益预测进行同样的练习：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1715e49d9cfc910a0210abbac48d591c\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath &amp; Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><blockquote>对于每股收益的预期变化，我们对大多数公司的评级为“不适用”，因为AMC和黑莓的每股收益预期均为负值，而游戏驿站和Tilray的预期则从负到正再到负。对于预计将保持持续盈利的公司（诺基亚和Bed Bath&amp;Beyond）来说，当前价格与2023年每股收益预期的比率低于标普500 18.4的比率。</blockquote></p><p><b>Wall Street's ratings and targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的评级和目标</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Analysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.</p><p><blockquote>券商分析师往往回避负面评级。他们还设定了12个月的价格目标。对于一些希望投资于多年来销售额和利润复合率较高的公司的长期投资者来说，这可能被认为太短了。但对于试图买入波动较大的模因股票以获取收益的交易者来说，这12个月可能是永恒的。</blockquote></p><p>Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):</p><p><blockquote>以下是华尔街分析师对上面列出的八只模因股票中的七只的情绪摘要（再次跳过Koss，该股票没有评级或估计）：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe15e31e65f68d1022120cdd3aeebf2\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>(FACTSET)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（事实集）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.</p><p><blockquote>诺基亚以大多数“买入”或同等评级脱颖而出。但截至6月3日收盘，该股略高于共识目标价。</blockquote></p><p>For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.</p><p><blockquote>对于其他模因股票，关注Reddit和其他社交媒体上的每日热点可能是您深入了解非常困难和高风险交易的最佳方式。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","NOK":"诺基亚","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","BB":"黑莓","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","MVIS":"维视图像"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-put-these-eight-meme-stocks-through-a-rugged-analytical-test-which-are-poised-for-growth-and-which-have-big-downsides-11622810160?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140409543","content_text":"AMC, GameStop and Nokia are lumped together, but not all meme stocks are alike -- whether you are a day-trader or a long-term investor.Many meme stocks discussed on Reddit's WallStreetBets channel are up by triple digits during 2021. (Photo by Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images)Every day the meme stocks dominate the financial media. And rightly so -- they are illustrating the power of communications, as traders and investors seek to follow momentum to big profits.It's easy to dismiss the phenomenon, because it isn't based on companies' traditional measures of profitability or sales growth, ratios of share prices to earnings or sales, or even innovative products or services. But so much money is trading around these stocks that you should at least learn about what is going on.Traders trying to understand the momentum and make quick gains will, of course, look at daily trading volumes and the immediate direction of share prices. But there are also measures of momentum among people communicating in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel and other social media. One of these, called a \"social sentiment analysis,\" was developed by HypeEquity and described here  by Thornton McEnery.But you might also be interested in whether any of these stocks might make good long-term investments. Or you may want to see financial information and standard stock valuations for the meme stocks, as part of your arguments against them.The meme stocksIn talk of meme stocks, there is an acronym, BANG. BlackBerry Ltd. (BB.T) is the first of the group of four, which also includes AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Nokia Corp. and GameStop Corp.. But there are four other meme stocks that have had a lot of recent social-media buzz and trading activity that we can add to make a list of eight.Here they are, sorted by market capitalization in millions of dollars:(FACTSET)AMC's market capitalization is up more than sevenfold this year. All of the listed meme stocks' valuations have rocketed, although only by double digits for Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond.The boards of directors of AMC and GameStop each took advantage of the excitement among traders and sold new shares to the public to raise billions of dollars. AMC announced and completed the sale of 11.55 million new shares  June 3.Short interestWhat started this year's meme-stock craze was an opportunity described on WallStreetBets to create short-squeezes on heavily shorted stocks.Here's a definition of short-selling and its risks:So you have unlimited risk if you short-sell stock -- you never know how high its price might go. If you buy shares outright (that is, take a long position), you have only risked the amount you invested.If you have shorted a stock and its price has gone the wrong way -- up -- your broker might make a margin call, which means you need to deliver cash to cover the broker's risk. Short-sellers are told these rules by their brokers before entering short trades. But the margin requirements can lead to short squeezes when investors run out of cash. Brokers will force-sell the shares if the required cash margin isn't maintained by the investor/trader.So at the early stage of meme-stock mania, the WallStreetBets crew was able to buy shares of heavily shorted stocks as a group, which drove their prices higher and even led to covering (at losses) by professionals. The resulting short-squeeze made a lot of money for traders whose timing was right. And the buzz has continued since then as the meme stocks have bounced up and down.Here's a year-to-date chart showing total returns for the BANG stocks through June 3:(FACTSET)How much short interest is there now for this group of eight stocks? Here they are, ranked again by market cap:(FACTSET)FactSet's data on short positions as a percentage of shares outstanding is updated twice a month, with the second update around the 25th day of the month.The \"dollars short\" figure is of interest, as it gives some additional perspective to the short percentages. For example, 4.2% of Tesla Inc. shares are sold short, but that amounts to $24.2 billion in short interest, because the market cap is $583 billion.In late January,when GameStop had a seemingly impossible 138% in short interest, Brad Lamensdorf, CEO of ActiveAlts in Westport, Conn., who runs long and short investment strategies, said a short percentage “over 30% to 40% is outrageously high.” At that time we listed 30 stocks in the S&P Composite 1500 Index that were shorted 25% or more. (Lamensdorf co-manages the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF,which is meant to be used as a hedging tool.)But now, only four stocks in the index are short 25% or more, according to FactSet's most recent data: Geo Group Inc., which operates prisons, with 33.2% short interest, Bed Bath Beyond, PetMed Express Inc., with 28.7% short interest and B&G Foods Inc., with 25.8% of shares sold short. (Getting back to Geo Group, President Biden signed an executive order to phase-out federal contracts with private prison operatorSo this year's action with the meme stocks has had quite an effect on the stock market, quelling short-selling in general. That said, even with low short-interest numbers for Nokia and Koss Corp., both stocks have had short-squeezes this year.Meme stocks' fundamentalsTo analyze the meme companies' financial results and prospects, we will look back and then ahead. The coronavirus pandemic had an obvious brutal affect on AMC, as its theaters were all closed. It had reopened nearly all U.S. theaters with limited capacity by he end of March.GameStop has been challenged for years by a fundamental problem for a videogame retailer: More content being sold online, even for console gaming systems, rather than through Blu-ray or other media that were sold at the stores.So AMC and GameStop were obvious candidates for shorting until traders were able to group together via Reddit and online trading applications, including Robinhood, to cause the short-squeezes.Five-year reviewFirst, let's look at the direction of all eight companies' sales results over the past five full fiscal years. We're looking at fiscal years because for several of these companies, fiscal years don't match the calendar:(FACTSET)Even before the pandemic, AMC's sales had declined during 2019. So did Nokia's, although the company is putting up impressive sales numbers for one that makes mobile telecommunications devices and isn't Apple Inc. or Samsung. GameStop has suffered four years of annual sales declines, while Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. has been a little better.Looking ahead -- salesWhat if AMC and GameStop were able to put all that money they have raised to good use? Starting from a baseline of calendar 2021, to get past most of the effect of the pandemic in the U.S., here are sales projections going out another two years, where possible:(FACTSET)You may have noticed that Koss isn't included in the sales projections table. That is because FactSet was unable to obtain any financial estimates, ratings or targets from analysts at brokerage firms for the company.Among the companies for which we have estimates for 2023, AMC is expected to show a sales recovery to come close to pre-pandemic levels. Tilray Inc. is expected to continue on its growth course for marijuana supply. Nokia is expected to show modest sales growth through 2023.The right-most column is a hybrid of market cap as of June 3 to the furthest-out sales estimate available. Nokia looks cheap, and Wall Street analysts concur, as you will see below. This company stands apart from the other meme stocks.Putting those price-to-sales estimates into perspective, the benchmark S&P 500 Index  trades for 2.5 times the weighted aggregate 2023 sales estimate for its component companies.Looking ahead -- earningsLet's do the same exercise for earnings-per-share estimates going out to 2023, where possible:(FACTSET)For expected changes in EPS, we have \"N/A\" for most companies because the EPS estimates for AMC and BlackBerry are all negative, while estimates swing from negative to positive to negative for GameStop and Tilray. For the companies expected to remain consistently profitable -- Nokia and Bed Bath & Beyond -- the ratios of current price to 2023 EPS estimates are lower than the ratio of 18.4 for the S&P 500.Wall Street's ratings and targetsAnalysts at brokerage firms tend to shy away from negative ratings. They also set 12-month price targets. Those can be considered too short for some long-term investors looking to invest in companies that compound sales and profit at decent rates over many years. But the 12 months can be an eternity for traders trying to jump on volatile meme-stocks for gains.Here's a summary of sentiment among Wall Street analysts for seven of the eight meme stocks listed above (again skipping Koss, for which no ratings or estimates are available):(FACTSET)Nokia stands out with majority \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. But the stock was a bit ahead of the consensus price target as of the close June 3.For the other meme stocks, a focus on the daily buzz in Reddit and other social media may be your best way to gain insight into very difficult and risky trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBBY":0.9,"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"NOK":0.9,"BB":0.9,"MVIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575141057639271","authorId":"3575141057639271","name":"Daveb","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61df162e1597f1b5a6a6bfb13d7d92f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575141057639271","idStr":"3575141057639271"},"content":"💎💎✊🏿✊🏿today and yesterday been excellent buy days. I have upped my holdings in both gne and amc.Wall St predictions, Have been wrong and will look even more silly by the end if next week. 🤝🤝💎","text":"💎💎✊🏿✊🏿today and yesterday been excellent buy days. I have upped my holdings in both gne and amc.Wall St predictions, Have been wrong and will look even more silly by the end if next week. 🤝🤝💎","html":"💎💎✊🏿✊🏿today and yesterday been excellent buy days. I have upped my holdings in both gne and amc.Wall St predictions, Have been wrong and will look even more silly by the end if next week. 🤝🤝💎"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119902814,"gmtCreate":1622511412438,"gmtModify":1631885316163,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Redfin and Mastercard seem like good investments","listText":"Redfin and Mastercard seem like good investments","text":"Redfin and Mastercard seem like good investments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119902814","repostId":"2139430866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133844792,"gmtCreate":1621738063316,"gmtModify":1631883789089,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CJLU.SI\">$NETLINK NBN TRUST(CJLU.SI)$</a>One of the more stable trust. Hovering near $1 and with yield slightly more than 1%. Much better than putting money in FD","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CJLU.SI\">$NETLINK NBN TRUST(CJLU.SI)$</a>One of the more stable trust. Hovering near $1 and with yield slightly more than 1%. Much better than putting money in FD","text":"$NETLINK NBN TRUST(CJLU.SI)$One of the more stable trust. Hovering near $1 and with yield slightly more than 1%. Much better than putting money in FD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133844792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168732270,"gmtCreate":1623983413290,"gmtModify":1634024732622,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168732270","repostId":"2144946726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160397724,"gmtCreate":1623771580668,"gmtModify":1634028500726,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls.&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls.&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160397724","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133406519,"gmtCreate":1621778160431,"gmtModify":1634186632028,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s a bit late for this…. Don’t you think?","listText":"It’s a bit late for this…. Don’t you think?","text":"It’s a bit late for this…. Don’t you think?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133406519","repostId":"2137907575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174373060,"gmtCreate":1627083084750,"gmtModify":1633768239250,"author":{"id":"3580987013176063","authorId":"3580987013176063","name":"JKKT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ccb056daebba610931b73977bf4746","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580987013176063","idStr":"3580987013176063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174373060","repostId":"1124707956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124707956","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627053121,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124707956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124707956","media":"zerohedge","summary":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17 and t","content":"<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录太有信心。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这样做了。周一，随着标准普尔指数跌至4,220点，高盛的大宗经纪服务观察到对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后继续抛售涨势并<b>周二，GS Prime book出现自6月17日以来最大的单日净卖出</b>（与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比-2.2 SDs）以及自2019年11月以来最大的单一名称净卖出，由多空销售推动（1.6比1），因为所有地区均净卖出北美和亚洲DM以美元计算，并由多空销售推动（2.5比1）。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分时间里一直持续。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime对触底后行动的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>个股出现了自19年11月以来最大的单日美元净卖出（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和ETF合计）的净买入。</li><li>11个行业中有8个行业被净卖出，以医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业为首，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买呆在家里（GSXUSTAY</b>)与连续第二天销售出去(GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>在多头买盘的推动下，GSXUSTAY的成分股再次集体净买入，并出现了自6月28日以来最大的单日美元净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND成员连续第二天集体净卖出，原因是避险资金流动，多头买入超过空头回补。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净抛售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件（GSCBSF8X）</b>-篮子成分股连续第二天被净买入，并出现年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，这完全是由多头买入推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG中的风险规避</b>)-TMT大型股总体上出现小幅净卖出，完全由多头销售推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而有所不同。该集团在过去10个交易日中有9个交易日（7/19除外）出现净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金业绩意味着什么？高盛指出，尽管出现了拉锯，基本面LS经理连续第三天经历了正的阿尔法和MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨日（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+0.8%(alpha+0.2%)vs MSCI TR+1.0%。</li><li>系统LS–0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS-0.7%(alpha+0.9%)vs MSCI TR-0.3%</li><li>系统LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+2.6%(alpha-5.7%)vs MSCI TR+12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆已下降MTD；虽然基本LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19百分位，但净收入仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHedge Funds Dump The Rally After Buying The Dip<blockquote>对冲基金逢低买入后抛售涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-23 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.</p><p><blockquote>不能说高盛的客户对高盛的交易记录太有信心。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&amp;P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally and<b>on Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17</b>(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.</p><p><blockquote>当高盛的流量交易员约翰·弗洛德(John Flood)周一敦促客户“不要逢低买入”时，他们就这样做了。周一，随着标准普尔指数跌至4,220点，高盛的大宗经纪服务观察到对冲基金逢低买入激增。然而，这些对冲基金显然不确定接下来会发生什么，然后继续抛售涨势并<b>周二，GS Prime book出现自6月17日以来最大的单日净卖出</b>（与过去一年的平均每日净流量相比-2.2 SDs）以及自2019年11月以来最大的单一名称净卖出，由多空销售推动（1.6比1），因为所有地区均净卖出北美和亚洲DM以美元计算，并由多空销售推动（2.5比1）。这种防御性定位在周一后的大部分时间里一直持续。</blockquote></p><p> Some more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:</p><p><blockquote>Goldman Prime对触底后行动的更多观察：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Single names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).</li>  <li>8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.</li>  <li>Despite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.</li>  <li><b>Buying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY</b>) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.</li> </ul> <ol>  <li>Constituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.</li>  <li>Members of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.</li> </ol> <ul>  <li><b>Buying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again</b>– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>个股出现了自19年11月以来最大的单日美元净卖出（-4.0 SDs），远远超过了宏观产品（指数和ETF合计）的净买入。</li><li>11个行业中有8个行业被净卖出，以医疗保健、工业、消费光盘和公用事业为首，而信息技术、能源和金融则被净买入。</li><li>尽管整体净交易活动出现逆转，但周一突出的潜在主题在周二普遍延续。</li><li><b>购买呆在家里（GSXUSTAY</b>)与连续第二天销售出去(GSXUPAND)。</li></ul><ol><li>在多头买盘的推动下，GSXUSTAY的成分股再次集体净买入，并出现了自6月28日以来最大的单日美元净买入。</li><li>GSXUPAND成员连续第二天集体净卖出，原因是避险资金流动，多头买入超过空头回补。也就是说，与我们周一看到的情况相比，该集团的净抛售速度显着放缓。</li></ol><ul><li><b>再次购买昂贵的软件（GSCBSF8X）</b>-篮子成分股连续第二天被净买入，并出现年初至今最大的单日美元净买入，这完全是由多头买入推动的。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Risk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG</b>) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).</p><p><blockquote><li><b>FAAMG中的风险规避</b>)-TMT大型股总体上出现小幅净卖出，完全由多头销售推动，尽管净流量因个别名称而有所不同。该集团在过去10个交易日中有9个交易日（7/19除外）出现净卖出。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> And visually:</p><p><blockquote>视觉上：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c10eb63e147e5e14ef3cb10e25db2523\" tg-width=\"1089\" tg-height=\"1006\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD</p><p><blockquote>这对对冲基金业绩意味着什么？高盛指出，尽管出现了拉锯，基本面LS经理连续第三天经历了正的阿尔法和MTD</blockquote></p><p> <b>Yesterday (July 20th)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>昨日（7月20日）</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.</li>  <li>Systematic LS -0.2%</li> </ul> <b>July MTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+0.8%(alpha+0.2%)vs MSCI TR+1.0%。</li><li>系统LS–0.2%</li></ul><b>7月MTD</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +1.5%</li> </ul> <b>2021 YTD</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS-0.7%(alpha+0.9%)vs MSCI TR-0.3%</li><li>系统LS+1.5%</li></ul><b>2021年初至今</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Fundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%</li>  <li>Systematic LS +12.2%</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d794cb43ddc7266af19225539b4d607\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"442\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Finally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>基本面LS+2.6%(alpha-5.7%)vs MSCI TR+12.7%</li><li>系统LS+12.2%</li></ul>最后，在定位方面，高盛观察到整体杠杆已下降MTD；虽然基本LS总收入现在仅为一年的第19百分位，但净收入仍然相对较高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d8fb3c9c67200b83051956e49b33e1c\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"665\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-rally-after-buying-dip?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124707956","content_text":"One can't say that Goldman's clients have too much faith in Goldman's trade recos.\nAs Goldman's flow trader John Flood was urging clients on Monday \"not to buy this dip\", they did just that and on Monday Goldman's Prime Brokerage service observed a surge in hedge fund dip buying as the S&P tumbled as low as 4,220. Those same hedge funds, however, clearly unsure what happens next, then proceeded to dump the rally andon Tuesday the GS Prime book saw the largest 1-day net selling since June 17(-2.2 SDs vs. the average daily net flow of the past year) and the biggest net selling in single names since Nov 2019, driven by long-and-short sales (1.6 to 1), as all regions were net sold led in $ terms by North America and DM Asia, and driven by long-and-short sales (2.5 to 1). This defensive positioning has continued through much of the post-Monday rally.\nSome more observations from Goldman Prime on the post-bottom action:\n\nSingle names saw the largest 1-day $ net selling since Nov ’19 (-4.0 SDs), which far outweighed net buying in Macro Products (Index and ETF combined).\n8 of 11 sectors were net sold led in $ terms by Health Care, Industrials, Consumer Disc, and Utilities, while Info Tech, Energy, and Financials were net bought.\nDespite the reversal in overall net trading activity, the underlying themes that stood out on Monday generally continued on Tuesday.\nBuying Stay at Home (GSXUSTAY) vs. Selling Go Outside (GSXUPAND) for a second straight day.\n\n\nConstituents of the GSXUSTAY collectively were net bought again and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying since 6/28, driven by long buys.\nMembers of GSXUPAND collectively were net sold for a second straight day, amid risk-off flows with long buys outpacing short covers. That said, the pace of net selling in the group significantly moderated vs. what we saw on Monday.\n\n\nBuying Expensive Software (GSCBSF8X) again– basket constituents collectively were net bought for a second straight day and saw the largest 1-day $ net buying YTD, driven entirely by long buys.\nRisk-off in FAAMG (GSTMTMEG) – the TMT mega caps collectively were modestly net sold, driven entirely by long sales, though net flows diverged by individual names. The group collectively has been net sold in 9 of the past 10 sessions (except 7/19).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nWhat does this mean for hedge fund performance? Despite the whipsaw, Goldman notes that fundamental LS managers experienced positive alpha for a third straight day and MTD\nYesterday (July 20th)\n\nFundamental LS +0.8% (alpha +0.2%) vs MSCI TR +1.0%.\nSystematic LS -0.2%\n\nJuly MTD\n\nFundamental LS -0.7% (alpha +0.9%) vs MSCI TR -0.3%\nSystematic LS +1.5%\n\n2021 YTD\n\nFundamental LS +2.6% (alpha -5.7%) vs MSCI TR +12.7%\nSystematic LS +12.2%\n\nFinally, in terms of positioning, Goldman observes that overall leverage has fallen MTD; while Fundamental LS grosses are now in just the 19th percentile one-year though Nets remain relatively high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}