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用户_CA
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IP属地:北京
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用户_CA
07-14
$速腾聚创(02498)$
啥意思?不再跌一跌了?到头了?
用户_CA
07-03
重大利好
抱歉,原内容已删除
用户_CA
07-03
$速腾聚创(02498)$
继续跌吧,25等你,趁这时候还能好好看看基本面
用户_CA
06-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
我的科技股投资观:我的科技股投资观
用户_CA
06-12
$金山云(03896)$
小赚快跑,这波动的心电图一样,以后就再低再说吧
用户_CA
06-11
$金力永磁(06680)$
关注的早不如关注的巧,最近一年的涨幅就没吃到
用户_CA
06-10
$金山云(03896)$
这一天天天的,到头来回到起点了
用户_CA
05-30
$小米集团-W(01810)$
50补到了
用户_CA
05-27
$速腾聚创(02498)$
汽车行业价格战 会引发龙头配件商销量上涨,汽车行业的价格战对零部件供应商既是挑战也是机遇。供应商需灵活应对市场变化,提升自身竞争力,以在激烈的市场竞争中保持稳健发展。龙头有资金,也有能力应对!
用户_CA
05-26
Replying to
@洒落秋阳
:不是小米一家的事//
@洒落秋阳
:大盘承压
用户_CA
05-22
$速腾聚创(02498)$
每天都是高开低走。。。但好在每天都相比昨天有所上升🆙
用户_CA
04-17
$创新奇智(02121)$
这家伙快退市了吧。。。
用户_CA
04-15
$小米集团-W(01810)$
得。这账户就短线了,短期内不会回到60
用户_CA
04-09
$地平线机器人-W(09660)$
有点出息
用户_CA
03-04
$小米集团-W(01810)$
等待45,逢跌就买,而且小买,手里永远留有子弹
用户_CA
02-27
$蔚来-SW(09866)$
昨天卖飞了,但是!!它凭啥涨呢!!
用户_CA
02-21
$小米集团-W(01810)$
此处因为没能上车而哀鸿遍野
用户_CA
02-19
$蔚来-SW(09866)$
这家伙是个做t
用户_CA
02-16
我的长期看涨方式和你一样,美的没想到,我看三星做参考
@柳暗花明_又一村:
$小米集团-W(01810)$
很多人涨的拿不住了,认为小米估值高了。我的看法是:小米的市值至少应该等于十分之一的苹果+十分之一的特斯拉+1个美的。潜力还很大
用户_CA
02-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
昨天换手率达到了2点6吧,今天就回归到0.5左右了,哈哈,还好昨天补上了,机会难得!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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难受啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651200351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494195643077345","authorId":"3494195643077345","name":"为了买米","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8df6a61eea59046d95d6fbc1df8434f","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3494195643077345","authorIdStr":"3494195643077345"},"content":"哈哈,发布会后第一天股价下跌已成定律","text":"哈哈,发布会后第一天股价下跌已成定律","html":"哈哈,发布会后第一天股价下跌已成定律"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407995038634320,"gmtCreate":1740622669825,"gmtModify":1740622671061,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">$蔚来-SW(09866)$ </a> 昨天卖飞了,但是!!它凭啥涨呢!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">$蔚来-SW(09866)$ </a> 昨天卖飞了,但是!!它凭啥涨呢!!","text":"$蔚来-SW(09866)$ 昨天卖飞了,但是!!它凭啥涨呢!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407995038634320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503453876825857","authorId":"3503453876825857","name":"源源不绝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a77f42c77c59c4296630b162706ff505","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3503453876825857","authorIdStr":"3503453876825857"},"content":"小米涨得很多了,别人一看咦 这货还没涨。","text":"小米涨得很多了,别人一看咦 这货还没涨。","html":"小米涨得很多了,别人一看咦 这货还没涨。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":444800719065712,"gmtCreate":1749615319740,"gmtModify":1749615324620,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">$金力永磁(06680)$</a> 关注的早不如关注的巧,最近一年的涨幅就没吃到","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">$金力永磁(06680)$</a> 关注的早不如关注的巧,最近一年的涨幅就没吃到","text":"$金力永磁(06680)$ 关注的早不如关注的巧,最近一年的涨幅就没吃到","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81aac27c848bee9c2409ea42453d25a3","width":"1290","height":"1149"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444800719065712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3471449903824820","authorId":"3471449903824820","name":"alesir","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3471449903824820","authorIdStr":"3471449903824820"},"content":"这个玩意怎么空单这么多","text":"这个玩意怎么空单这么多","html":"这个玩意怎么空单这么多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405816580072064,"gmtCreate":1740103298584,"gmtModify":1740103299813,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 此处因为没能上车而哀鸿遍野","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 此处因为没能上车而哀鸿遍野","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 此处因为没能上车而哀鸿遍野","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/405816580072064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":424647767355408,"gmtCreate":1744682585543,"gmtModify":1744682587159,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 得。这账户就短线了,短期内不会回到60","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 得。这账户就短线了,短期内不会回到60","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 得。这账户就短线了,短期内不会回到60","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424647767355408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4133585145462200","authorId":"4133585145462200","name":"2025腾飞","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4133585145462200","authorIdStr":"4133585145462200"},"content":"贸易战开打还能创新高?那确实牛","text":"贸易战开打还能创新高?那确实牛","html":"贸易战开打还能创新高?那确实牛"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370015143768544,"gmtCreate":1731376422333,"gmtModify":1731376580736,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 60,今天平仓了,收益率不错,小鹏是个不错的公司,车也不错,后面再看机会再进场,Q3 其实可以看看财报的,但利好都看到了,Q4 销量正常出货,难有大动静。所以出掉等待机会。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 60,今天平仓了,收益率不错,小鹏是个不错的公司,车也不错,后面再看机会再进场,Q3 其实可以看看财报的,但利好都看到了,Q4 销量正常出货,难有大动静。所以出掉等待机会。","text":"$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$ 60,今天平仓了,收益率不错,小鹏是个不错的公司,车也不错,后面再看机会再进场,Q3 其实可以看看财报的,但利好都看到了,Q4 销量正常出货,难有大动静。所以出掉等待机会。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f34e39a0fc993b88283b28bb29bed81","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370015143768544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":236427916128392,"gmtCreate":1698745923796,"gmtModify":1698745925530,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别看他说了什么,要看他做了什么","listText":"别看他说了什么,要看他做了什么","text":"别看他说了什么,要看他做了什么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/236427916128392","repostId":"1155804120","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155804120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1698743381,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155804120?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-31 17:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"99岁的播客首秀,芒格:未来20年中国比任何经济体前景都好","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155804120","media":"零售威观察","summary":"查理·芒格如何看待中国、日本,如何感悟人生、投资。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>99岁高龄,查理·芒格如何看待中国、日本,如何感悟人生、投资</p><p>文/王子威</p><p>2023年10月29日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦副主席、99岁高龄的查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)首次登上播客(Podcast)的舞台,接受播客Acquired专访,谈论了他过去99年来的观点、经验和教训,也谈论了他对中国、日本的观点。</p><p>整个播客时长1小时06分钟,《零售威观察》就其中的核心内容进行总结,并补充部分背景信息,方便读者近距离接触芒格的智慧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0386e9d6828d79c03ed569bf9f503c08\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>1、散户其实是在股市里赌博!</strong></p><p>“他们对公司或任何事情都一无所知,散户只是对价格进行追涨杀跌而已。如果由我来掌管这个世界,我会对短线交易者征收重税,把这些投机者赶出市场。”</p><p><strong>2、为什么算法驱动的交易机构(比如文艺复兴,即Renaissance Technology)正在承担过多风险?</strong></p><p>“最简单的交易是提前了解你知道的,他们年复一年地为获得回报而提高杠杆,将杠杆变得越来越高。</p><p>最终,他们的交易量越来越大,但是利润却越来越微薄,这给了他们巨大的风险,我自己是绝不会这么做的。拥有巨大的杠杆,是他们获得这些巨大回报的唯一方式——如果你已经足够富有,这个杠杆会让你发疯。”</p><p><strong>3、当我和巴菲特意识到Diversified Retailing这家公司的竞争压力过大时,我们如何快速改变理念,并赚了一大笔钱?</strong></p><p>背景信息:1966年1月30日,巴菲特、芒格和戈特斯曼(Gottesman)成立了一家控股公司Diversified Retailing Company, Inc., 目标是“收购多元化业务,尤其是零售领域的业务”。</p><p>当时,巴菲特和芒格去了马里兰国民银行(Maryland National Bank),要求贷款进行收购。</p><p>贷款官瞪大眼睛惊呼道,“小小的霍奇西尔德-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CONN\">科恩</a>百货(Hochschild-Kohn’s)要600万美元?” 即使听到这个,巴菲特和芒格也没有质疑自己的判断,更没有尖叫着夺门而出。</p><p>对此,巴菲特是这样描述的,“我们认为,我们是以三流价格去购买二流百货店。”</p><p>“我们从Diversified Retailing中赚了很多钱,我们并没有从零售行业中赚钱。”</p><p>“整个故事非常简单,巴菲特和我买下了这家位于巴尔的摩的小型百货连锁店。这是个巨大的错误,因为竞争太激烈了!我们刚签完字后,就意识到我们犯了一个可怕的错误。所以我们决定扭转局面,承担看起来愚蠢的后果,而不是让它直接破产。在那些衰退的年代,我们就买买买,所有的钱都进入了这些股票,当然我们让它翻了两番。”</p><p><strong>4、早年的美好岁月给了我们一个良好的开端</strong></p><p>“是的,我们大约花了2,000万美元买下了一家小型储蓄和贷款公司。当我们离开那家公司时,我们从2,000万美元的‘小投资’中拿回了超过20亿美元的有价证券,这些证券成为内布拉斯加保险公司基础资本的一部分。这就是每个人都需要的、完美的开端。”</p><p><strong>5、我对Costco的青睐</strong></p><p>(1)他们的售价比美国任何地方都便宜;</p><p>(2)大型、高效的商店;</p><p>(3)巨大的停车位;</p><p>(4)以奖励积分的方式给予到店的人特殊福利;</p><p>(5)让供应商等待(付款)直至Costco拿到消费者支付的货款。</p><p>是什么让Costco如此成功?</p><p>“这需要非常好的执行力。你真的必须下定决心去做,然后每天、每周、每年都充满热情,这样做整整40年。这并不容易。你认为Costco的成功在于商业模式和文化的魔力吗? 是的,是文化加模式。绝对是这样,而且Costco可靠地、勤奋地把这一切做了40年。”</p><p>为什么Costco要花几十年时间才在中国开第一家店?</p><p>“他们试图在中国开第一家店时,有人索要3万美元的贿赂,Costco拒绝了,吉姆·西尼格尔(Jim Senegal,Costco前CEO)对此非常反感。此后30年里,他甚至不愿谈论这件事。”</p><p><strong>6、为投资者寻找优质投资提供建议</strong></p><p>“当你持有某支股票5年后,你可能会慢慢融入其中,或者对它地理解会更深刻。但是,当你意识到你有优势的时候,你就应该下重注。你知道你是对的,但是商学院可不会教这些。这可太不可思议了。你一定要在最好的投资上下重注!”</p><p><strong>7、为什么能和巴菲特成为伙伴?</strong></p><p>“我们都很相似,我们都想让家人安全,为投资者做好工作等等。我们有相似的态度。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4f1967a2ca7d3cad0a4427c0d46a205\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p>芒格还为长期伙伴关系提出一些建议:</p><p>“如果你喜欢彼此并喜欢共事,这会很有帮助。但我不使用任何一种公式。许多长期合作良好的伙伴关系之所以能够持续,是因为一个人擅长一件事,另一个人擅长另一件事。他们自然分工,每个人都喜欢他正在做的事情。”</p><p><strong>8、我认为,伯克希尔可以用更多的杠杆</strong></p><p>“巴菲特仍然更关心伯克希尔股东的安全,而不是其他任何事情。如果我们自始至终使用更多一点的杠杆,我们现在的杠杆就会是原来的三倍,而且风险也不会那么大。”</p><p><strong>9、我对风险投资(Venture Capital)的看法</strong></p><p>“对于VC来说,投好是非常困难的,我认为在风险投资中一次又一次地投好几乎是不可能的。”</p><p>“一些项目可能变得非常火爆,你必须快速决策,所有人都是只是在赌博。”</p><p>“VC做好了,这是一个非常合法的业务。如果你想给正确的人权利并培养他们,你就要帮助他们。你知道这场游戏的诀窍,所以你可以帮助他们做好生意,但又不会过多干扰他们。他们会讨厌你。总的来说,在接触过大量来自VC的人之后,企业中的人其实往往会很讨厌这群VC。</p><p>他们不觉得VC是他们的合作伙伴,不觉得这群VC是在帮助他们,相反,他们认为VC只关心自己,所以他们不喜欢这群VC。”</p><p><strong>10、风险投资如何能做的更好?</strong></p><p>“在伯克希尔哈撒韦,他们知道我们不会试图以最高的价格抛售他们。你看, 哪怕某个混蛋投资银行家为我们一些糟糕的业务提供20倍的市盈率,我们也不会卖掉他们。”</p><p>“只不过,如果是我们一直无法解决的问题业务,我们会卖掉他们。但如果是一家还算不错的生意,我们就不会卖掉。这让我们享有‘坚持做对我们有帮助的事情’的声誉。”</p><p>“你不会想通过欺骗投资者来赚钱,而这正是许多风险投资所做的。”</p><p><strong>11、为何巴菲特在日本的投资是不二之选?</strong></p><p>“如果你像巴菲特一样聪明,也许一个世纪有两三次,你就会得到这样的想法。日本的利率十年来每年才0.5%。而这些公司确实是根深蒂固的老牌企业,他们拥有所有这些廉价的铜矿和橡胶基地,所以你可以提前十年借到所有的钱,去购买股票,并且支付5%的股息。 ”</p><p>“不用投资、不用思考,就有大量的现金流,你多长时间才能找到这样一个机会?如果你能在一个世纪里获得一两次这样的机会,你就足够幸运了。我们可以做到这一点——因为伯克希尔的信用,但是其他人都做不到。”</p><p><strong>12、我喜欢拥有强大品牌的公司——他们有强大的定价权</strong></p><p>“好吧,我们很难不喜欢品牌,因为我们很幸运地以2000万美元的价格收购了Sea's Candy。作为我们的第一笔收购,我们很快发现我们可以每年将价格提高10%,而且没有人在乎。”</p><p>“我们并没有提高销量之类的东西,就提高了利润。因此,在这 40 年的时间里,我们每年将价格提高10%。这是一家非常令人满意的公司。我们没有获得任何新资本。这就是它的好处,新资本很少。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b93dc30aa2e74008559978ccbb4eab18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"752\"/></p><p><strong>13、如果今天从零开始,重新打造伯克希尔哈撒韦,应该怎么做?</strong></p><p>三件事,智力、努力工作以及非常幸运。</p><p><strong>14、我对中国的看法</strong></p><p>“我对中国的观点是,中国经济在未来20年比几乎任何其他大型经济体都有更好的前景。这是其一。其二,中国的巨头公司比任何其他地方的巨头都更强大、更好,而且价格便宜得多。因此,我自然愿意在我的投资组合中承担一些来自中国企业的风险。”</p><p><strong>15、我为什么对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>念念不忘?</strong></p><p>“这个家伙(指王传福)是个天才。他有工程学博士学位,当他看到别人的零件后,他可以制造出那个零件:早上看看,下午看看,他就可以做出来了。我从未见过这样的人。他可以做任何事情。他是一个天生的工程师,是一个能把一切都做出来的那种生产型管理者。”</p><p>“这是一个巨大的财富:在一个地方聚集这么多有才华的人是很有价值的。他们解决了电动汽车在电动机、加速、刹车等方面的所有问题。”</p><p>将王传福与马斯克进行比较:</p><p>“王传福是一个狂热分子,知道如何亲自动手制造东西,所以他更接近本源。换句话说,比亚迪的王传福比马斯克更擅长实际制造东西。”</p><p><strong>16、我对建立家庭的建议</strong></p><p>“你必须和每个人相处。你必须帮助他们渡过难关,他们也会帮助你。但我认为这没有看起来那么困难。我认为美国一半的婚姻运作得相当不错。”</p><p>“如果两人必须和别人结婚,情况也会一样。”</p><p>“你必须与配偶建立信任,特别是在教育孩子等方面。”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1568197834938","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>99岁的播客首秀,芒格:未来20年中国比任何经济体前景都好</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n99岁的播客首秀,芒格:未来20年中国比任何经济体前景都好\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-31 17:09 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s1DrbMxRW2_OUPtqBYG1sA><strong>零售威观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>99岁高龄,查理·芒格如何看待中国、日本,如何感悟人生、投资文/王子威2023年10月29日,伯克希尔哈撒韦副主席、99岁高龄的查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)首次登上播客(Podcast)的舞台,接受播客Acquired专访,谈论了他过去99年来的观点、经验和教训,也谈论了他对中国、日本的观点。整个播客时长1小时06分钟,《零售威观察》就其中的核心内容进行总结,并补充部分背景信息,方便...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s1DrbMxRW2_OUPtqBYG1sA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d30d3e4a8c584dc0c7143999338c880","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/s1DrbMxRW2_OUPtqBYG1sA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155804120","content_text":"99岁高龄,查理·芒格如何看待中国、日本,如何感悟人生、投资文/王子威2023年10月29日,伯克希尔哈撒韦副主席、99岁高龄的查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)首次登上播客(Podcast)的舞台,接受播客Acquired专访,谈论了他过去99年来的观点、经验和教训,也谈论了他对中国、日本的观点。整个播客时长1小时06分钟,《零售威观察》就其中的核心内容进行总结,并补充部分背景信息,方便读者近距离接触芒格的智慧。1、散户其实是在股市里赌博!“他们对公司或任何事情都一无所知,散户只是对价格进行追涨杀跌而已。如果由我来掌管这个世界,我会对短线交易者征收重税,把这些投机者赶出市场。”2、为什么算法驱动的交易机构(比如文艺复兴,即Renaissance Technology)正在承担过多风险?“最简单的交易是提前了解你知道的,他们年复一年地为获得回报而提高杠杆,将杠杆变得越来越高。最终,他们的交易量越来越大,但是利润却越来越微薄,这给了他们巨大的风险,我自己是绝不会这么做的。拥有巨大的杠杆,是他们获得这些巨大回报的唯一方式——如果你已经足够富有,这个杠杆会让你发疯。”3、当我和巴菲特意识到Diversified Retailing这家公司的竞争压力过大时,我们如何快速改变理念,并赚了一大笔钱?背景信息:1966年1月30日,巴菲特、芒格和戈特斯曼(Gottesman)成立了一家控股公司Diversified Retailing Company, Inc., 目标是“收购多元化业务,尤其是零售领域的业务”。当时,巴菲特和芒格去了马里兰国民银行(Maryland National Bank),要求贷款进行收购。贷款官瞪大眼睛惊呼道,“小小的霍奇西尔德-科恩百货(Hochschild-Kohn’s)要600万美元?” 即使听到这个,巴菲特和芒格也没有质疑自己的判断,更没有尖叫着夺门而出。对此,巴菲特是这样描述的,“我们认为,我们是以三流价格去购买二流百货店。”“我们从Diversified Retailing中赚了很多钱,我们并没有从零售行业中赚钱。”“整个故事非常简单,巴菲特和我买下了这家位于巴尔的摩的小型百货连锁店。这是个巨大的错误,因为竞争太激烈了!我们刚签完字后,就意识到我们犯了一个可怕的错误。所以我们决定扭转局面,承担看起来愚蠢的后果,而不是让它直接破产。在那些衰退的年代,我们就买买买,所有的钱都进入了这些股票,当然我们让它翻了两番。”4、早年的美好岁月给了我们一个良好的开端“是的,我们大约花了2,000万美元买下了一家小型储蓄和贷款公司。当我们离开那家公司时,我们从2,000万美元的‘小投资’中拿回了超过20亿美元的有价证券,这些证券成为内布拉斯加保险公司基础资本的一部分。这就是每个人都需要的、完美的开端。”5、我对Costco的青睐(1)他们的售价比美国任何地方都便宜;(2)大型、高效的商店;(3)巨大的停车位;(4)以奖励积分的方式给予到店的人特殊福利;(5)让供应商等待(付款)直至Costco拿到消费者支付的货款。是什么让Costco如此成功?“这需要非常好的执行力。你真的必须下定决心去做,然后每天、每周、每年都充满热情,这样做整整40年。这并不容易。你认为Costco的成功在于商业模式和文化的魔力吗? 是的,是文化加模式。绝对是这样,而且Costco可靠地、勤奋地把这一切做了40年。”为什么Costco要花几十年时间才在中国开第一家店?“他们试图在中国开第一家店时,有人索要3万美元的贿赂,Costco拒绝了,吉姆·西尼格尔(Jim Senegal,Costco前CEO)对此非常反感。此后30年里,他甚至不愿谈论这件事。”6、为投资者寻找优质投资提供建议“当你持有某支股票5年后,你可能会慢慢融入其中,或者对它地理解会更深刻。但是,当你意识到你有优势的时候,你就应该下重注。你知道你是对的,但是商学院可不会教这些。这可太不可思议了。你一定要在最好的投资上下重注!”7、为什么能和巴菲特成为伙伴?“我们都很相似,我们都想让家人安全,为投资者做好工作等等。我们有相似的态度。”芒格还为长期伙伴关系提出一些建议:“如果你喜欢彼此并喜欢共事,这会很有帮助。但我不使用任何一种公式。许多长期合作良好的伙伴关系之所以能够持续,是因为一个人擅长一件事,另一个人擅长另一件事。他们自然分工,每个人都喜欢他正在做的事情。”8、我认为,伯克希尔可以用更多的杠杆“巴菲特仍然更关心伯克希尔股东的安全,而不是其他任何事情。如果我们自始至终使用更多一点的杠杆,我们现在的杠杆就会是原来的三倍,而且风险也不会那么大。”9、我对风险投资(Venture Capital)的看法“对于VC来说,投好是非常困难的,我认为在风险投资中一次又一次地投好几乎是不可能的。”“一些项目可能变得非常火爆,你必须快速决策,所有人都是只是在赌博。”“VC做好了,这是一个非常合法的业务。如果你想给正确的人权利并培养他们,你就要帮助他们。你知道这场游戏的诀窍,所以你可以帮助他们做好生意,但又不会过多干扰他们。他们会讨厌你。总的来说,在接触过大量来自VC的人之后,企业中的人其实往往会很讨厌这群VC。他们不觉得VC是他们的合作伙伴,不觉得这群VC是在帮助他们,相反,他们认为VC只关心自己,所以他们不喜欢这群VC。”10、风险投资如何能做的更好?“在伯克希尔哈撒韦,他们知道我们不会试图以最高的价格抛售他们。你看, 哪怕某个混蛋投资银行家为我们一些糟糕的业务提供20倍的市盈率,我们也不会卖掉他们。”“只不过,如果是我们一直无法解决的问题业务,我们会卖掉他们。但如果是一家还算不错的生意,我们就不会卖掉。这让我们享有‘坚持做对我们有帮助的事情’的声誉。”“你不会想通过欺骗投资者来赚钱,而这正是许多风险投资所做的。”11、为何巴菲特在日本的投资是不二之选?“如果你像巴菲特一样聪明,也许一个世纪有两三次,你就会得到这样的想法。日本的利率十年来每年才0.5%。而这些公司确实是根深蒂固的老牌企业,他们拥有所有这些廉价的铜矿和橡胶基地,所以你可以提前十年借到所有的钱,去购买股票,并且支付5%的股息。 ”“不用投资、不用思考,就有大量的现金流,你多长时间才能找到这样一个机会?如果你能在一个世纪里获得一两次这样的机会,你就足够幸运了。我们可以做到这一点——因为伯克希尔的信用,但是其他人都做不到。”12、我喜欢拥有强大品牌的公司——他们有强大的定价权“好吧,我们很难不喜欢品牌,因为我们很幸运地以2000万美元的价格收购了Sea's Candy。作为我们的第一笔收购,我们很快发现我们可以每年将价格提高10%,而且没有人在乎。”“我们并没有提高销量之类的东西,就提高了利润。因此,在这 40 年的时间里,我们每年将价格提高10%。这是一家非常令人满意的公司。我们没有获得任何新资本。这就是它的好处,新资本很少。”13、如果今天从零开始,重新打造伯克希尔哈撒韦,应该怎么做?三件事,智力、努力工作以及非常幸运。14、我对中国的看法“我对中国的观点是,中国经济在未来20年比几乎任何其他大型经济体都有更好的前景。这是其一。其二,中国的巨头公司比任何其他地方的巨头都更强大、更好,而且价格便宜得多。因此,我自然愿意在我的投资组合中承担一些来自中国企业的风险。”15、我为什么对比亚迪念念不忘?“这个家伙(指王传福)是个天才。他有工程学博士学位,当他看到别人的零件后,他可以制造出那个零件:早上看看,下午看看,他就可以做出来了。我从未见过这样的人。他可以做任何事情。他是一个天生的工程师,是一个能把一切都做出来的那种生产型管理者。”“这是一个巨大的财富:在一个地方聚集这么多有才华的人是很有价值的。他们解决了电动汽车在电动机、加速、刹车等方面的所有问题。”将王传福与马斯克进行比较:“王传福是一个狂热分子,知道如何亲自动手制造东西,所以他更接近本源。换句话说,比亚迪的王传福比马斯克更擅长实际制造东西。”16、我对建立家庭的建议“你必须和每个人相处。你必须帮助他们渡过难关,他们也会帮助你。但我认为这没有看起来那么困难。我认为美国一半的婚姻运作得相当不错。”“如果两人必须和别人结婚,情况也会一样。”“你必须与配偶建立信任,特别是在教育孩子等方面。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KWEB":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456414731481600,"gmtCreate":1752466603829,"gmtModify":1752466605031,"author":{"id":"3581207360232789","authorId":"3581207360232789","name":"用户_CA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d534783048f797aa35d651936fdbe5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581207360232789","authorIdStr":"3581207360232789"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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12:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美政府取消对华EDA出口限制,三大芯片软件商恢复对华供货","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184620840","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月3日,据环球时报援引彭博社3日报道,特朗普政府已取消部分对华芯片设计软件出口许可要求。另据《南华早报》援引西门子、新思科技(Synopsys)和楷登电子(Cadence)公司发布的声明称,美国政府已于本周四取消对中国部分芯片设计软件的出口管制措施。三家全球领先的电子设计自动化(EDA)软件开发商均表示,未来其相关产品出口至中国将无需获得特别批准。摩根士丹利5月发布的研究显示,三家公司去年共占据中国EDA软件市场约82%的份额。EDA工具是芯片制造商在智能手机、计算机、汽车等广泛应用领域中进行半导体设计的核心软件。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月3日,据环球时报援引彭博社3日报道,特朗普政府已取消部分对华芯片设计软件出口许可要求。</p><p>另据《南华早报》援引<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIEGY\">西门子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>(Synopsys)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDNS\">铿腾电子</a>(Cadence)公司发布的声明称,美国政府已于本周四取消对中国部分芯片设计软件的出口管制措施。</p><p>三家全球领先的电子设计自动化(EDA)软件开发商均表示,未来其相关产品出口至中国将无需获得特别批准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>5月发布的研究显示,三家公司去年共占据中国EDA软件市场约82%的份额。EDA工具是芯片制造商在智能手机、计算机、汽车等广泛应用领域中进行半导体设计的核心软件。</p><p>受此消息影响,新思科技和铿腾电子美股夜盘大涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0403cd52095f388a8263d26e75d82be6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"144\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9b535f1cdd35d60e50040d753f072\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"160\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美政府取消对华EDA出口限制,三大芯片软件商恢复对华供货 </title>\n<style 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12:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月3日,据环球时报援引彭博社3日报道,特朗普政府已取消部分对华芯片设计软件出口许可要求。</p><p>另据《南华早报》援引<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIEGY\">西门子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>(Synopsys)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDNS\">铿腾电子</a>(Cadence)公司发布的声明称,美国政府已于本周四取消对中国部分芯片设计软件的出口管制措施。</p><p>三家全球领先的电子设计自动化(EDA)软件开发商均表示,未来其相关产品出口至中国将无需获得特别批准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>5月发布的研究显示,三家公司去年共占据中国EDA软件市场约82%的份额。EDA工具是芯片制造商在智能手机、计算机、汽车等广泛应用领域中进行半导体设计的核心软件。</p><p>受此消息影响,新思科技和铿腾电子美股夜盘大涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0403cd52095f388a8263d26e75d82be6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"144\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9b535f1cdd35d60e50040d753f072\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"462\" 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