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2021-06-20

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that fool.com always speaks so negative about AMC.

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>

2021-06-30

No!

Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-25

Ok

Used Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Yas!

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2021-06-24

Who will be the next Tesla?

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2021-06-21

👀

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2021-06-17

Misleading post

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2021-06-26

Yeap. It’s fool.com again

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2021-06-23

Scary

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2021-06-26

Ok

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09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187567340","media":"Barrons","summary":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices hav","content":"<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187567340","content_text":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have appreciated by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?\nSome analysts argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.\nNew home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of inventory built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.\nYet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.\nIn 2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.\nFrequently, analysts cite the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.\nFrom the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.\nToday, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.\nDemand for new homes is something over which federal policy makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.\nBut even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.\nAt the June 2006 Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.\nThere is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.\nIf you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150521915,"gmtCreate":1624922328137,"gmtModify":1633947103684,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yas!","listText":"Yas!","text":"Yas!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150521915","repostId":"2146836375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150568097,"gmtCreate":1624922069319,"gmtModify":1633947112196,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let’s go!","listText":"Let’s go!","text":"Let’s go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150568097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127695376,"gmtCreate":1624845381995,"gmtModify":1633948071211,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"EV!","listText":"EV!","text":"EV!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127695376","repostId":"1103605275","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124971581,"gmtCreate":1624724602443,"gmtModify":1633949271019,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogogo","listText":"Gogogo","text":"Gogogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124971581","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124973848,"gmtCreate":1624724500484,"gmtModify":1633949272459,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124973848","repostId":"1175794606","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125344281,"gmtCreate":1624661195943,"gmtModify":1633950055267,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Meme stock was fun then","listText":"Meme stock was fun then","text":"Meme stock was fun then","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125344281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125344967,"gmtCreate":1624661172459,"gmtModify":1633950055512,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125344967","repostId":"1166582624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166582624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624624877,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166582624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 20:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Surges To Highest Since 1991 As Savings Rate Slumps<blockquote>随着储蓄率暴跌，美联储最喜欢的通胀指标飙升至 1991 年以来的最高水平</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166582624","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a record plunge in April, Americans' incomes were expected to shrink further in May as 'stimmi","content":"<p>After a record plunge in April, Americans' incomes were expected to shrink further in May as 'stimmies' dry up and recovery begins (while spending was expected to rise marginally - but less than in April). The data was mixed (and not good) with incomes -2.0% (slightly better than the -2.5% expected, but still down) but spending was unchanged MoM (missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise after a big upward revision in April to +0.9% MoM)</p><p><blockquote>在 4 月份创纪录的暴跌之后，随着“stimmies”枯竭和复苏开始，美国人的收入预计将在 5 月份进一步萎缩（而支出预计将小幅上升，但低于 4 月份）。数据好坏参半（而且不好），收入为 -2.0%（略高于预期的 -2.5%，但仍有所下降），但支出环比持平（低于 4 月份大幅上调至 +0.9% 后环比增长 0.4% 的预期）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96be2634e57bd84add9d5f2f4f7ddf\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"522\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> On a YoY basis, income growth accelerated modestly while spending growth slowed notably (but remains dramatically higher)...</p><p><blockquote>从同比来看，收入增长温和加速，而支出增长明显放缓（但仍大幅上升）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5cd2984ab6b04d34838c3dcc409424\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Citi says&nbsp;<b>the revision in spending largely reflects rising prices in components</b>&nbsp;such as airfares, rental cars, and used cars, and adds that while these abnormally strong price increases should ultimately prove temporary, very strong price increases could continue for another month or two.</p><p><blockquote>花旗表示<b>支出的修正在很大程度上反映了零部件价格上涨</b>例如机票、租车和二手车，并补充说，虽然这些异常强劲的价格上涨最终应该被证明是暂时的，但非常强劲的价格上涨可能会持续一两个月。</blockquote></p><p> The shift in spending vs income has pushed the savings rate lower...</p><p><blockquote>支出与收入的变化推低了储蓄率……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8642397f10bd13b903658087cfacf32\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"569\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which leads us to the most important aspect of today's data - The Fed's most-watched inflation indicator, the core PCE Deflator, which soared to +3.4% YoY (as expected).<b>This is the highest level of core inflation since 1991.</b></p><p><blockquote>这就引出了今天数据中最重要的方面——美联储最受关注的通胀指标，核心个人消费支出平减指数，同比飙升至+3.4%（如预期）。<b>这是自1991年以来的最高核心通胀水平。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d01edb57e25e8b9372e83d85a237a1d4\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Hot enough for you Mr.Powell? Or is that all transitory too?</p><p><blockquote>对你来说够热吗，鲍威尔先生？或者这也是暂时的？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Surges To Highest Since 1991 As Savings Rate Slumps<blockquote>随着储蓄率暴跌，美联储最喜欢的通胀指标飙升至 1991 年以来的最高水平</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Surges To Highest Since 1991 As Savings Rate Slumps<blockquote>随着储蓄率暴跌，美联储最喜欢的通胀指标飙升至 1991 年以来的最高水平</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-25 20:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a record plunge in April, Americans' incomes were expected to shrink further in May as 'stimmies' dry up and recovery begins (while spending was expected to rise marginally - but less than in April). The data was mixed (and not good) with incomes -2.0% (slightly better than the -2.5% expected, but still down) but spending was unchanged MoM (missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise after a big upward revision in April to +0.9% MoM)</p><p><blockquote>在 4 月份创纪录的暴跌之后，随着“stimmies”枯竭和复苏开始，美国人的收入预计将在 5 月份进一步萎缩（而支出预计将小幅上升，但低于 4 月份）。数据好坏参半（而且不好），收入为 -2.0%（略高于预期的 -2.5%，但仍有所下降），但支出环比持平（低于 4 月份大幅上调至 +0.9% 后环比增长 0.4% 的预期）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96be2634e57bd84add9d5f2f4f7ddf\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"522\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> On a YoY basis, income growth accelerated modestly while spending growth slowed notably (but remains dramatically higher)...</p><p><blockquote>从同比来看，收入增长温和加速，而支出增长明显放缓（但仍大幅上升）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5cd2984ab6b04d34838c3dcc409424\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"503\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Citi says&nbsp;<b>the revision in spending largely reflects rising prices in components</b>&nbsp;such as airfares, rental cars, and used cars, and adds that while these abnormally strong price increases should ultimately prove temporary, very strong price increases could continue for another month or two.</p><p><blockquote>花旗表示<b>支出的修正在很大程度上反映了零部件价格上涨</b>例如机票、租车和二手车，并补充说，虽然这些异常强劲的价格上涨最终应该被证明是暂时的，但非常强劲的价格上涨可能会持续一两个月。</blockquote></p><p> The shift in spending vs income has pushed the savings rate lower...</p><p><blockquote>支出与收入的变化推低了储蓄率……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8642397f10bd13b903658087cfacf32\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"569\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which leads us to the most important aspect of today's data - The Fed's most-watched inflation indicator, the core PCE Deflator, which soared to +3.4% YoY (as expected).<b>This is the highest level of core inflation since 1991.</b></p><p><blockquote>这就引出了今天数据中最重要的方面——美联储最受关注的通胀指标，核心个人消费支出平减指数，同比飙升至+3.4%（如预期）。<b>这是自1991年以来的最高核心通胀水平。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d01edb57e25e8b9372e83d85a237a1d4\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Hot enough for you Mr.Powell? Or is that all transitory too?</p><p><blockquote>对你来说够热吗，鲍威尔先生？或者这也是暂时的？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges-highest-1991-savings-rate-slumps\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-surges-highest-1991-savings-rate-slumps","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166582624","content_text":"After a record plunge in April, Americans' incomes were expected to shrink further in May as 'stimmies' dry up and recovery begins (while spending was expected to rise marginally - but less than in April). The data was mixed (and not good) with incomes -2.0% (slightly better than the -2.5% expected, but still down) but spending was unchanged MoM (missing expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise after a big upward revision in April to +0.9% MoM)\nSource: Bloomberg\nOn a YoY basis, income growth accelerated modestly while spending growth slowed notably (but remains dramatically higher)...\n\nCiti says the revision in spending largely reflects rising prices in components such as airfares, rental cars, and used cars, and adds that while these abnormally strong price increases should ultimately prove temporary, very strong price increases could continue for another month or two.\nThe shift in spending vs income has pushed the savings rate lower...\n\nWhich leads us to the most important aspect of today's data - The Fed's most-watched inflation indicator, the core PCE Deflator, which soared to +3.4% YoY (as expected).This is the highest level of core inflation since 1991.\nSource: Bloomberg\nHot enough for you Mr.Powell? Or is that all transitory too?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125345314,"gmtCreate":1624661086138,"gmtModify":1633950056252,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125345314","repostId":"2146073358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125346686,"gmtCreate":1624660982545,"gmtModify":1633950057171,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","listText":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","text":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125346686","repostId":"2146072291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126212272,"gmtCreate":1624575058496,"gmtModify":1634004300091,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Patience..","listText":"Patience..","text":"Patience..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126212272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126216049,"gmtCreate":1624574970081,"gmtModify":1631885193979,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gogo","listText":"Gogo","text":"Gogo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126216049","repostId":"1120836318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126218211,"gmtCreate":1624574906333,"gmtModify":1634004301877,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126218211","repostId":"1151862709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151862709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624547636,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151862709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Used Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151862709","media":"zerohedge","summary":"When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and dem","content":"<p>When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到二手卡车的现状时，忘记Econ 101关于供需的教导吧。两者都将二手卡车价格推至大衰退后的峰值，而不是一个影响另一个。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”</b>Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“    On the   <b>demand</b>side, the   <b>freight markets are still red-hot,</b>encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”  Preliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在供应方面，持续的新卡车生产限制导致许多买家寻找低里程二手卡车作为替代品。”</b>Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 Chris Visser 告诉 FreightWaves。<b>要求</b>侧，<b>货运市场依然火爆，</b>鼓励卡车司机升级使用较新的铁。”与4月份相比，5月份同一经销商的初步二手8级卡车销量下降了14%。但根据 ACT Research 的数据，5 月份的这一数字比去年同期受疫情影响的月份高出 46%。</blockquote></p><p> “U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.</p><p><blockquote>“ACT 副总裁史蒂夫-谭（Steve Tam）说：”预计 2021 年美国 GDP 将达到近 7%，货运量已达到顶峰，运费才刚刚开始从历史高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Struggling to keep up</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>努力跟上</b></u></blockquote></p><p> New truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.</p><p><blockquote>新卡车生产受到为关键车辆功能提供动力的微芯片短缺以及大宗商品价格飙升的困扰，才刚刚开始复苏，但制造商很难雇用足够的工人。</blockquote></p><p> “It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”</p><p><blockquote>“谭说：”正是在这种强劲的市场背景下，新卡车生产难以跟上强劲的需求，限制了二手卡车市场充分发挥潜力。“种种迹象表明，需求继续超过供应，因此，卡车价格继续上涨也就不足为奇了。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Appreciation across the board</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>全面赞赏</b></u></blockquote></p><p> J.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.</p><p><blockquote>J.D. Power 报告称，5 月份大多数细分市场的卡车价格上涨，8 类拍卖价格比 4 月份上涨 11.9%。零售价格环比上涨7.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f3c7b9d3f32cfca89702e93de6811a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>维瑟说，最新的卧铺拖拉机使价格达到或超过后大衰退时期最高峰值月份的价格。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.”</i>&nbsp;- Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager  The average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。”</i>- Chris Visser，J.D. Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 5 月份零售的卧铺拖拉机平均车龄为 71 个月，行驶里程为 416,232 英里，收入为 63,518 美元。与2020年5月相比，这个普通睡眠者大了4个月，行驶里程减少了45,606英里，减少了9.9%，带来了23,285美元，增加了57.9%的收入。</blockquote></p><p> All used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.</p><p><blockquote>2016年至2020年车型年的所有二手8级卧铺在5月份的价格都上涨了。2020 款车型以比 4 月份高出 9.6% 的价格领先。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Highest prices since Great Recession</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大衰退以来最高价格</b></u></blockquote></p><p> “We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。“在这样的时代，如果购买一辆新卡车意味着更好的可靠性和燃油经济性，而且可能还有保修期，那么就更容易证明购买新卡车的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于库存难以获得，零售客流量下降。5月份，经销商平均每家商店售出5.2辆卡车，比4月份减少0.4辆。与去年同期相比，2021 年前五个月每个经销商的卡车销量比 2020 年同期增加了 1.6 辆。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计夏季交通流量将保持相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，展望未来，大多数卡车的零售应该会在第三季度出现轻度至中度上涨，然后随着供应链重新平衡和卡车的供应增加，零售价格会在今年晚些时候走低。</blockquote></p><p> Scant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.</p><p><blockquote>以旧换新周期性较低时期的典型供应不足，导致 Power 4 至 6 年车龄卡车基准组的月平均价格出现适度波动。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”自去年开始上涨以来，我们还没有看到实际定价有任何下降。“与 2020 年前五个月相比，该组领先 80.3%。2021 年的表现会比 2020 年好得多也就不足为奇了，但我们的基准组也带来了我们追踪的六年来迄今为止最高的定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Used Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUsed Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 23:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到二手卡车的现状时，忘记Econ 101关于供需的教导吧。两者都将二手卡车价格推至大衰退后的峰值，而不是一个影响另一个。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”</b>Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“    On the   <b>demand</b>side, the   <b>freight markets are still red-hot,</b>encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”  Preliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在供应方面，持续的新卡车生产限制导致许多买家寻找低里程二手卡车作为替代品。”</b>Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 Chris Visser 告诉 FreightWaves。<b>要求</b>侧，<b>货运市场依然火爆，</b>鼓励卡车司机升级使用较新的铁。”与4月份相比，5月份同一经销商的初步二手8级卡车销量下降了14%。但根据 ACT Research 的数据，5 月份的这一数字比去年同期受疫情影响的月份高出 46%。</blockquote></p><p> “U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.</p><p><blockquote>“ACT 副总裁史蒂夫-谭（Steve Tam）说：”预计 2021 年美国 GDP 将达到近 7%，货运量已达到顶峰，运费才刚刚开始从历史高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Struggling to keep up</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>努力跟上</b></u></blockquote></p><p> New truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.</p><p><blockquote>新卡车生产受到为关键车辆功能提供动力的微芯片短缺以及大宗商品价格飙升的困扰，才刚刚开始复苏，但制造商很难雇用足够的工人。</blockquote></p><p> “It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”</p><p><blockquote>“谭说：”正是在这种强劲的市场背景下，新卡车生产难以跟上强劲的需求，限制了二手卡车市场充分发挥潜力。“种种迹象表明，需求继续超过供应，因此，卡车价格继续上涨也就不足为奇了。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Appreciation across the board</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>全面赞赏</b></u></blockquote></p><p> J.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.</p><p><blockquote>J.D. Power 报告称，5 月份大多数细分市场的卡车价格上涨，8 类拍卖价格比 4 月份上涨 11.9%。零售价格环比上涨7.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f3c7b9d3f32cfca89702e93de6811a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>维瑟说，最新的卧铺拖拉机使价格达到或超过后大衰退时期最高峰值月份的价格。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.”</i>&nbsp;- Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager  The average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。”</i>- Chris Visser，J.D. Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 5 月份零售的卧铺拖拉机平均车龄为 71 个月，行驶里程为 416,232 英里，收入为 63,518 美元。与2020年5月相比，这个普通睡眠者大了4个月，行驶里程减少了45,606英里，减少了9.9%，带来了23,285美元，增加了57.9%的收入。</blockquote></p><p> All used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.</p><p><blockquote>2016年至2020年车型年的所有二手8级卧铺在5月份的价格都上涨了。2020 款车型以比 4 月份高出 9.6% 的价格领先。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Highest prices since Great Recession</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大衰退以来最高价格</b></u></blockquote></p><p> “We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。“在这样的时代，如果购买一辆新卡车意味着更好的可靠性和燃油经济性，而且可能还有保修期，那么就更容易证明购买新卡车的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于库存难以获得，零售客流量下降。5月份，经销商平均每家商店售出5.2辆卡车，比4月份减少0.4辆。与去年同期相比，2021 年前五个月每个经销商的卡车销量比 2020 年同期增加了 1.6 辆。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计夏季交通流量将保持相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，展望未来，大多数卡车的零售应该会在第三季度出现轻度至中度上涨，然后随着供应链重新平衡和卡车的供应增加，零售价格会在今年晚些时候走低。</blockquote></p><p> Scant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.</p><p><blockquote>以旧换新周期性较低时期的典型供应不足，导致 Power 4 至 6 年车龄卡车基准组的月平均价格出现适度波动。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”自去年开始上涨以来，我们还没有看到实际定价有任何下降。“与 2020 年前五个月相比，该组领先 80.3%。2021 年的表现会比 2020 年好得多也就不足为奇了，但我们的基准组也带来了我们追踪的六年来迄今为止最高的定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-truck-prices-are-exploding-feverish-demand-and-lack-supply\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-truck-prices-are-exploding-feverish-demand-and-lack-supply","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151862709","content_text":"When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.\n\n“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“\n\n\n On the \n demandside, the \n freight markets are still red-hot,encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”\n\nPreliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.\n“U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.\nStruggling to keep up\nNew truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.\n“It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”\nAppreciation across the board\nJ.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.\n\nThe newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.\n\n“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.” - Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager\n\nThe average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.\nAll used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.\nHighest prices since Great Recession\n“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”\nRetail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.\n“We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.\nLooking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.\nScant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.\n“We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121774365,"gmtCreate":1624494225957,"gmtModify":1634005384432,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unpredictability of the stock market..","listText":"Unpredictability of the stock market..","text":"Unpredictability of the stock market..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121774365","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121775972,"gmtCreate":1624494201196,"gmtModify":1634005385375,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Who will be the next Tesla?","listText":"Who will be the next Tesla?","text":"Who will be the next Tesla?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121775972","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121773272,"gmtCreate":1624494070496,"gmtModify":1634005389706,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121773272","repostId":"1124226438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123304327,"gmtCreate":1624408164969,"gmtModify":1634006622656,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Roller coaster night!","listText":"Roller coaster night!","text":"Roller coaster night!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123304327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123308932,"gmtCreate":1624408019626,"gmtModify":1634006626237,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Scary","listText":"Scary","text":"Scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123308932","repostId":"1192042428","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120178231,"gmtCreate":1624317400123,"gmtModify":1634008039410,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fool.com is so dubious I think I’m a fool reading their articles..","listText":"Fool.com is so dubious I think I’m a fool reading their articles..","text":"Fool.com is so dubious I think I’m a fool reading their articles..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120178231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120145026,"gmtCreate":1624317148965,"gmtModify":1634008046386,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581475447881137","idStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow AMC wasn’t mentioned for once!","listText":"Wow AMC wasn’t mentioned for once!","text":"Wow AMC wasn’t mentioned for once!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120145026","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":165518000,"gmtCreate":1624151077100,"gmtModify":1634010295382,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I don’t think it’s a coincidence that fool.com always speaks so negative about AMC.","listText":"I don’t think it’s a coincidence that fool.com always speaks so negative about AMC.","text":"I don’t think it’s a coincidence that fool.com always speaks so negative about AMC.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165518000","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153822174,"gmtCreate":1625018153998,"gmtModify":1633945792486,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No!","listText":"No!","text":"No!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153822174","repostId":"1187567340","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187567340","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625017360,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187567340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187567340","media":"Barrons","summary":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices hav","content":"<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Prices Are Going Up. Must They Crash?<blockquote>房价在上涨。他们一定要坠毁吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There are&nbsp;many&nbsp;reports&nbsp;of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have&nbsp;appreciated&nbsp;by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?</p><p><blockquote>有许多报道称购房者陷入竞购战，许多城市的房价在过去一年中上涨了 10% 以上。这自然会引发对市场波动的担忧：上涨的东西一定会下跌吗？我们是否正在重蹈21世纪初房价在市场崩溃前飙升的过度行为？</blockquote></p><p> Some&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析师认为，这一次，房价下跌的可能性更小。待售新房库存非常低，贷款标准也比2005年严格得多。这是真的。事实上，地面比看起来还要坚实。</blockquote></p><p> New home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之前，新房库存非常高。今天，它们更接近几十年来常见的水平。由于供应链中断加上冠状病毒大流行期间需求的突然增加，已建立并准备入住的库存部分特别低。当买家急于抢购现有房屋时，我们不应该太担心房屋崩盘。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.</p><p><blockquote>然而，还有另一个理由认为房地产崩盘的可能性不大： 即使是 2005 年的高库存水平，也远没有大多数人想象的那么具有投机性。了解原因将有助于我们解读当今的市场。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.</p><p><blockquote>2005年，房屋正在建造，因为销售很高，在该国需求旺盛的部分地区销售也很高。随着销售额的增长，建筑商保守地扩大库存规模。今天也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Frequently, analysts&nbsp;cite&nbsp;the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.</p><p><blockquote>分析师经常引用库存月数的急剧上升——按目前的销售速度出售当前待售房屋供应量所需的月数——作为上次繁荣期间过度热情建筑的证据。但是时机是关键。几十年的经验告诉我们一个清晰的故事：几个月的库存主要是销售的功能，而不是建筑商的投机。当销售强劲时，房屋正在周转，几个月的库存往往会保持在较低水平。当销售额迅速下降时，建筑商往往会面临意想不到的高库存。</blockquote></p><p> From the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory&nbsp;was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.</p><p><blockquote>从 20 世纪 90 年代末一直到 2005 年中期新房销售高峰，库存一直处于历史低位，只剩下大约四个月的价值。当然，建筑商正在创造更多的库存来匹配不断增长的销售，但这几乎不足以满足需求，因此数量保持相当稳定。然后，随着经济增长开始放缓，销售额的大幅下降与几个月来库存的急剧上升同时发生。</blockquote></p><p> Today, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.</p><p><blockquote>如今，还有大约四个月的库存，销售额与 20 世纪 90 年代末的水平大致相同。因此，虽然我们很容易从现场活动中得出低库存可能会导致买家之间的竞价战的结论，但我们需要记住，买家实际上是在推动库存，而不是相反。换句话说，当买家需求高时，建筑商决定建造新房。如果需求突然枯竭，建筑商不能让在建房屋的库存突然消失。</blockquote></p><p> Demand for new homes is something over which federal policy&nbsp;makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政策制定者实际上可以控制对新房的需求。美联储和其他联邦监管机构应致力于避免销售额急剧下降。美联储可以通过提高或降低利率、改变货币供应量以及瞄准价格和名义经济活动的变化来做到这一点。联邦监管机构可以确保保持稳定的贷款条件，也可以不保持稳定。大衰退如此严重的一个原因是，美联储官员和其他联邦监管机构通常会对公众情绪做出反应，对可怕的销售崩溃置之不理，让房屋建筑商和销售商自生自灭。</blockquote></p><p> But even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，2000 年代的市场也比看起来更有弹性。据 toZillow 称，2005 年 7 月，当买家退出，几个月的库存开始激增时，美国房价中值为 198,000 美元。2008 年 7 月，当几个月的库存接近峰值时，库存仍处于 19.9 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> At the&nbsp;June 2006&nbsp;Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.</p><p><blockquote>在 2006 年 6 月的美联储会议上，本-伯南克说：“房地产降温是件好事。如果我们能挥舞魔杖，恢复 2005 年，我们就不想这么做了。”值得注意的是，如今接替伯南克担任美联储主席的杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）并没有公开渴望 “降温 ”的房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> There is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.</p><p><blockquote>人们普遍认为，在大衰退之前，购房者被房价永远不会下跌的神话所迷惑，他们变得自满。那些买家被证明是错的。然而，即使在扼杀房地产市场的共同努力取得成功时，我们也不得不让它们屈服整整三年，房价才有所缓和。房价可能会下跌，但我们必须非常努力地工作，一起工作很长时间，才能让房价下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.</p><p><blockquote>如果你是一个热门市场的买家，房价比一年前高出 30%，那么你得到的交易将比当时差 30%。对此无能为力。也就是说，主要关注的是联邦政策制定者可以控制的因素。几乎没有理由预期住房需求会崩溃。如果发生这种情况，它将需要公共意图——联邦货币和信贷政策旨在创造或接受需求的急剧下降。即使联邦官员希望住房建设崩溃，历史表明，在价格回落之前，市场萎缩将在很长一段时间内推动新销售大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/housing-prices-market-crash-51624912461?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187567340","content_text":"There are many reports of homebuyers getting into bidding wars and many cities where home prices have appreciated by well more than 10% over the past year. This naturally leads to a concern about market volatility: Must what goes up comedown? Are werepeatingthe excesses of the early 2000s, when housing prices surged before the market crashed?\nSome analysts argue that this time, it’s even less likely that prices will fall.Inventoriesof new homes for sale are very low, and lending standards are much tighter than in 2005. This is true. In fact, the ground is even firmer than it seems.\nNew home inventories were very high before the Great Recession. Today, they are closer to the level that has been common for decades. The portion of inventory built and ready for move-in is especially low because of supply chain interruptions combined with a sudden boost of demand during the coronavirus pandemic. We shouldn’t worry much about a crash when buyers are eagerly snapping up the available homes.\nYet there’s another reason to believe a housing crash is unlikely: Even the high level of inventory in 2005 wasn’t nearly as speculative as most people think. Understanding why will help us interpret today’s market.\nIn 2005, homes were being built because sales were high, and sales were high in parts of the country where demand was strong. Builders were conservatively scaling their inventories with rising sales. The same is true today.\nFrequently, analysts cite the sharp rise in months of inventory—the number of months it will take to sell the current supply of homes being constructed for sale, at the current sales rate—as evidence of overzealous building during the last boom. But timing is key here. Decades of experience tell a clear story: Months of inventory is mostly a function of sales rather than builder speculation. When sales are strong, homes are turning over, and months of inventory tend to stay low. When sales quickly decline, builders tend to be left with unexpectedly high inventory.\nFrom the late 1990s all the way up to the peak of new home sales in mid-2005,inventory was at historic lows, with about four months’ worth remaining. Of course, builders were creating more inventory to match growing sales, but it was barely enough to keep up with demand, so the number held fairly constant. Then, as economic growth started to slow, a deep drop in sales coincided with a sharp rise in months of inventory.\nToday, there are also about four months of inventory, and sales are around the same level as they were in the late 1990s. So, while it’s easy to look at on-the-ground activity and conclude that low inventory could cause bidding wars among buyers, we need to remember that buyers are really driving inventory more than the other way around. In other words, builders decide to create new homes when demand is high from buyers. If demand suddenly dries up, builders can’t suddenly make the inventory of homes under construction disappear.\nDemand for new homes is something over which federal policy makers actually have some control. The Federal Reserve and other federal regulators should aim to avoid sharp declines in sales. The Fed can do this by raising or lowering interest rates, changing the money supply, and targeting changes in prices and nominal economic activity. Federal regulators can make sure that stable lending conditions are maintained, or not.One reasonthe Great Recession was so bad was that Federal Reserve officials and other federal regulators, generally responding to public sentiment, washed their hands of the horrendous collapse in sales and left homebuilders and sellers out to dry.\nBut even in that worst-case scenario, the 2000s market was much more resilient than it seemed. In July 2005, when buyers backed off and months of inventory started to surge, the median U.S. home price was $198,000, according toZillow. In July 2008, when months of inventory was near its peak, it was still at $199,000.\nAt the June 2006 Federal Reserve meeting, Ben Bernanke said, “It is a good thing that housing is cooling. If we could wave a magic wand and reinstate 2005, we wouldn’t want to do that.” It’s notable that Jerome Powell, who today holds Bernanke’s former position as Fed chair, isn’t openly pining for a “cooler” housing market.\nThere is a common belief that before the Great Recession, homebuyers were taken in by themyththat home prices never go down, and they became complacent. Those buyers turned out to be wrong. Yet, even when a concerted effort to kill housing markets succeeded, we had to beat them into submission for three full years before prices relented. Home prices can go down, but we have to work very hard, together, for a long time, to make them fall.\nIf you are a buyer in a hot market where home prices are 30% higher than they were a year ago, you’re getting a 30% worse deal than you could have had back then. Nothing can be done about that. That said, the main things to be concerned with are the factors federal policymakers are in control of. There is little reason to expect housing demand to collapse. If it does, it will require communal intention—federal monetary and credit policies meant to create or accept a sharp drop in demand. And even if federal officials intend for housing construction to collapse, history suggests that a market contraction would push new sales down deeply for an extended period of time before prices relent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126218211,"gmtCreate":1624574906333,"gmtModify":1634004301877,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126218211","repostId":"1151862709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151862709","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624547636,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151862709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Used Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151862709","media":"zerohedge","summary":"When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and dem","content":"<p>When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到二手卡车的现状时，忘记Econ 101关于供需的教导吧。两者都将二手卡车价格推至大衰退后的峰值，而不是一个影响另一个。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”</b>Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“    On the   <b>demand</b>side, the   <b>freight markets are still red-hot,</b>encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”  Preliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在供应方面，持续的新卡车生产限制导致许多买家寻找低里程二手卡车作为替代品。”</b>Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 Chris Visser 告诉 FreightWaves。<b>要求</b>侧，<b>货运市场依然火爆，</b>鼓励卡车司机升级使用较新的铁。”与4月份相比，5月份同一经销商的初步二手8级卡车销量下降了14%。但根据 ACT Research 的数据，5 月份的这一数字比去年同期受疫情影响的月份高出 46%。</blockquote></p><p> “U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.</p><p><blockquote>“ACT 副总裁史蒂夫-谭（Steve Tam）说：”预计 2021 年美国 GDP 将达到近 7%，货运量已达到顶峰，运费才刚刚开始从历史高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Struggling to keep up</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>努力跟上</b></u></blockquote></p><p> New truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.</p><p><blockquote>新卡车生产受到为关键车辆功能提供动力的微芯片短缺以及大宗商品价格飙升的困扰，才刚刚开始复苏，但制造商很难雇用足够的工人。</blockquote></p><p> “It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”</p><p><blockquote>“谭说：”正是在这种强劲的市场背景下，新卡车生产难以跟上强劲的需求，限制了二手卡车市场充分发挥潜力。“种种迹象表明，需求继续超过供应，因此，卡车价格继续上涨也就不足为奇了。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Appreciation across the board</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>全面赞赏</b></u></blockquote></p><p> J.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.</p><p><blockquote>J.D. Power 报告称，5 月份大多数细分市场的卡车价格上涨，8 类拍卖价格比 4 月份上涨 11.9%。零售价格环比上涨7.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f3c7b9d3f32cfca89702e93de6811a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>维瑟说，最新的卧铺拖拉机使价格达到或超过后大衰退时期最高峰值月份的价格。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.”</i>&nbsp;- Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager  The average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。”</i>- Chris Visser，J.D. Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 5 月份零售的卧铺拖拉机平均车龄为 71 个月，行驶里程为 416,232 英里，收入为 63,518 美元。与2020年5月相比，这个普通睡眠者大了4个月，行驶里程减少了45,606英里，减少了9.9%，带来了23,285美元，增加了57.9%的收入。</blockquote></p><p> All used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.</p><p><blockquote>2016年至2020年车型年的所有二手8级卧铺在5月份的价格都上涨了。2020 款车型以比 4 月份高出 9.6% 的价格领先。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Highest prices since Great Recession</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大衰退以来最高价格</b></u></blockquote></p><p> “We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。“在这样的时代，如果购买一辆新卡车意味着更好的可靠性和燃油经济性，而且可能还有保修期，那么就更容易证明购买新卡车的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于库存难以获得，零售客流量下降。5月份，经销商平均每家商店售出5.2辆卡车，比4月份减少0.4辆。与去年同期相比，2021 年前五个月每个经销商的卡车销量比 2020 年同期增加了 1.6 辆。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计夏季交通流量将保持相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，展望未来，大多数卡车的零售应该会在第三季度出现轻度至中度上涨，然后随着供应链重新平衡和卡车的供应增加，零售价格会在今年晚些时候走低。</blockquote></p><p> Scant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.</p><p><blockquote>以旧换新周期性较低时期的典型供应不足，导致 Power 4 至 6 年车龄卡车基准组的月平均价格出现适度波动。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”自去年开始上涨以来，我们还没有看到实际定价有任何下降。“与 2020 年前五个月相比，该组领先 80.3%。2021 年的表现会比 2020 年好得多也就不足为奇了，但我们的基准组也带来了我们追踪的六年来迄今为止最高的定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Used Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUsed Truck Prices Are Exploding On Feverish Demand And Lack Of Supply<blockquote>由于需求旺盛和供应短缺，二手卡车价格正在飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 23:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到二手卡车的现状时，忘记Econ 101关于供需的教导吧。两者都将二手卡车价格推至大衰退后的峰值，而不是一个影响另一个。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”</b>Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“    On the   <b>demand</b>side, the   <b>freight markets are still red-hot,</b>encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”  Preliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.</p><p><blockquote><b>“在供应方面，持续的新卡车生产限制导致许多买家寻找低里程二手卡车作为替代品。”</b>Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 Chris Visser 告诉 FreightWaves。<b>要求</b>侧，<b>货运市场依然火爆，</b>鼓励卡车司机升级使用较新的铁。”与4月份相比，5月份同一经销商的初步二手8级卡车销量下降了14%。但根据 ACT Research 的数据，5 月份的这一数字比去年同期受疫情影响的月份高出 46%。</blockquote></p><p> “U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.</p><p><blockquote>“ACT 副总裁史蒂夫-谭（Steve Tam）说：”预计 2021 年美国 GDP 将达到近 7%，货运量已达到顶峰，运费才刚刚开始从历史高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Struggling to keep up</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>努力跟上</b></u></blockquote></p><p> New truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.</p><p><blockquote>新卡车生产受到为关键车辆功能提供动力的微芯片短缺以及大宗商品价格飙升的困扰，才刚刚开始复苏，但制造商很难雇用足够的工人。</blockquote></p><p> “It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”</p><p><blockquote>“谭说：”正是在这种强劲的市场背景下，新卡车生产难以跟上强劲的需求，限制了二手卡车市场充分发挥潜力。“种种迹象表明，需求继续超过供应，因此，卡车价格继续上涨也就不足为奇了。”</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Appreciation across the board</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>全面赞赏</b></u></blockquote></p><p> J.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.</p><p><blockquote>J.D. Power 报告称，5 月份大多数细分市场的卡车价格上涨，8 类拍卖价格比 4 月份上涨 11.9%。零售价格环比上涨7.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f3c7b9d3f32cfca89702e93de6811a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>维瑟说，最新的卧铺拖拉机使价格达到或超过后大衰退时期最高峰值月份的价格。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.”</i>&nbsp;- Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager  The average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。”</i>- Chris Visser，J.D. Power Valuation Services 商用车高级分析师兼产品经理 5 月份零售的卧铺拖拉机平均车龄为 71 个月，行驶里程为 416,232 英里，收入为 63,518 美元。与2020年5月相比，这个普通睡眠者大了4个月，行驶里程减少了45,606英里，减少了9.9%，带来了23,285美元，增加了57.9%的收入。</blockquote></p><p> All used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.</p><p><blockquote>2016年至2020年车型年的所有二手8级卧铺在5月份的价格都上涨了。2020 款车型以比 4 月份高出 9.6% 的价格领先。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Highest prices since Great Recession</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大衰退以来最高价格</b></u></blockquote></p><p> “We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计，6 月份的后期定价将明显超过大衰退后时期的最高月份。“在这样的时代，如果购买一辆新卡车意味着更好的可靠性和燃油经济性，而且可能还有保修期，那么就更容易证明购买新卡车的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> Retail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>由于库存难以获得，零售客流量下降。5月份，经销商平均每家商店售出5.2辆卡车，比4月份减少0.4辆。与去年同期相比，2021 年前五个月每个经销商的卡车销量比 2020 年同期增加了 1.6 辆。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”我们预计夏季交通流量将保持相对稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Looking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，展望未来，大多数卡车的零售应该会在第三季度出现轻度至中度上涨，然后随着供应链重新平衡和卡车的供应增加，零售价格会在今年晚些时候走低。</blockquote></p><p> Scant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.</p><p><blockquote>以旧换新周期性较低时期的典型供应不足，导致 Power 4 至 6 年车龄卡车基准组的月平均价格出现适度波动。</blockquote></p><p> “We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”</p><p><blockquote>“维瑟说：”自去年开始上涨以来，我们还没有看到实际定价有任何下降。“与 2020 年前五个月相比，该组领先 80.3%。2021 年的表现会比 2020 年好得多也就不足为奇了，但我们的基准组也带来了我们追踪的六年来迄今为止最高的定价。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-truck-prices-are-exploding-feverish-demand-and-lack-supply\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-truck-prices-are-exploding-feverish-demand-and-lack-supply","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151862709","content_text":"When it comes to the current state of used trucks, forget what Econ 101 teaches about supply and demand. Rather than one impacting the other, both are driving used truck prices to a post-Great Recession peak.\n\n“On the supply side, ongoing new truck production constraints are causing many buyers to look for low-mileage used trucks as a substitute,”Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager, told FreightWaves.“\n\n\n On the \n demandside, the \n freight markets are still red-hot,encouraging truckers to upgrade to newer iron.”\n\nPreliminary used Class 8 truck volumes by the same dealers dropped 14% in May compared to April. But they were 46% higher in May than the pandemic-influenced month a year earlier, according to ACT Research.\n“U.S. GDP is forecast to hit nearly 7% in 2021, freight volumes are through the roof, and freight rates are just now starting to pull back from record highs,” ACT Vice President Steve Tam said.\nStruggling to keep up\nNew truck production, beset by shortages of microchips that power critical vehicle functions, and through-the-roof commodity prices, is only beginning to recover but manufacturers are having difficulties hiring enough workers.\n“It is in the context of this strong market that new truck production is struggling to keep up with strong demand and limiting the used truck market from realizing its full potential,” Tam said. “By all indications, demand continues to outpace supply, and for that reason, it should come as no surprise that truck prices continue to increase.”\nAppreciation across the board\nJ.D. Power reported that trucks in most segments appreciated in May with Class 8 auction pricing up 11.9% over April. Retail pricing was up 7.1% month over month.\n\nThe newest available sleeper tractors are bringing pricing at or above the highest peak months in the post-Great Recession period, Visser said.\n\n“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period.” - Chris Visser, J.D. Power Valuation Services commercial vehicles senior analyst and product manager\n\nThe average sleeper tractor retailed in May was 71 months old, had 416,232 miles and brought $63,518. Compared to May 2020, this average sleeper was four months older, had 45,606, or 9.9% fewer miles, and brought $23,285 or 57.9% more money.\nAll used Class 8 sleepers from 2016 to 2020 model years commanded higher prices in May. Model year 2020 led the way with a 9.6% higher price than in April.\nHighest prices since Great Recession\n“We expect late-model pricing in June to clearly surpass the highest months in the post-Great Recession period,” Visser said. “In times like this it’s easier to justify the expense of a newer truck if it means better reliability and fuel economy and possibly a warranty.”\nRetail traffic pulled back as inventory was hard to come by. Dealers sold an average of 5.2 trucks per store in May, 0.4 fewer than in April. Year over year, the first five months of 2021 generated 1.6 more truck sales per dealership than during the same period of 2020.\n“We expect traffic to remain relatively solid in the summer,” Visser said.\nLooking ahead, he said, most trucks should see mild-to-moderate retail appreciation into the third quarter before moving lower later in the year as the supply chain rebalances and trucks become more available.\nScant availability typical for a cyclical lower period for trade-ins is causing moderate swings in average monthly prices of Power’s benchmark group of 4- to 6-year-old trucks.\n“We have not seen any letup in actual pricing since the run-up began last year,” Visser said. “Compared to the first five months of 2020, this group is running 80.3% ahead. It’s no surprise that 2021 would perform much better than 2020, but our benchmark group is also bringing by far the highest pricing in the six years we’ve been tracking it.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150521915,"gmtCreate":1624922328137,"gmtModify":1633947103684,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yas!","listText":"Yas!","text":"Yas!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150521915","repostId":"2146836375","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121775972,"gmtCreate":1624494201196,"gmtModify":1634005385375,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Who will be the next Tesla?","listText":"Who will be the next Tesla?","text":"Who will be the next Tesla?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121775972","repostId":"2145156570","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164478527,"gmtCreate":1624235000669,"gmtModify":1634009230133,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👀","listText":"👀","text":"👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164478527","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161446164,"gmtCreate":1623939105958,"gmtModify":1634025583037,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Misleading post","listText":"Misleading post","text":"Misleading post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161446164","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125346686,"gmtCreate":1624660982545,"gmtModify":1633950057171,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","listText":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","text":"Yeap. It’s fool.com again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125346686","repostId":"2146072291","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123308932,"gmtCreate":1624408019626,"gmtModify":1634006626237,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Scary","listText":"Scary","text":"Scary","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123308932","repostId":"1192042428","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125345314,"gmtCreate":1624661086138,"gmtModify":1633950056252,"author":{"id":"3581475447881137","authorId":"3581475447881137","name":"Ixineee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d37b2f986d93e7796d3c29f5d4badee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581475447881137","authorIdStr":"3581475447881137"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125345314","repostId":"2146073358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}