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2021-10-08

Wow

September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Up

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2021-10-23

Wow

Tesla Stock Closed Above $900 for First Time. What Could Come Next.<blockquote>特斯拉股价首次收于900美元以上。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>

2021-10-11

Wow

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2021-10-26

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

Cheap

Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>

2021-07-12

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-28

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-27

Up up up pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-03

Wow

抱歉，原内容已删除

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Along with this, the psychological operations (FUD, bots, infiltration of social media and message boards,&nbsp;downward movement of priceetc) trying to panic retail investors to sell has also been used.&nbsp; The fight for 21.00 on Friday is what many in the community are gearing up for:&nbsp; trying to get the price at&nbsp; 21 through Ape buying power.&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$For the past two months, big institutions and short hedge funds have been shorting/manipulating the stock price downward. 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The fight for 21.00 on Friday is what many in the community are gearing up for: trying to get the price at 21 through Ape buying 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","listText":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","text":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业$亿航智能(EH)$ 控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5086aa281e4b1206a4e7fb683f41213","width":"632","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630976407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639390372,"gmtCreate":1643157985004,"gmtModify":1643157985116,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639390372","repostId":"630048732","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630048732,"gmtCreate":1642646641819,"gmtModify":1642680805291,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【1月20日】纳指跌入回调区间！新能源汽车股集体下挫，今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月20日，香港恒生指数开盘上涨135.3点，涨幅0.56%，报24263.15点；国企指数开盘上涨63.69点，涨幅0.75%，报8505.38点；红筹指数开盘上涨25.04点，涨幅0.6%，报4178.41点。 恒生科技指数开涨0.88%，科技股多数上扬，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 涨超2%； 新能源汽车股走低，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$</a> 跌超2%； 地产股多数上涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03383\">$雅居乐集团(03383)$</a> 涨7.5%，碧桂园服务、融创中国涨近7%； <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">$中国奥园(03883)$</a> 跌5.7%，此前官宣“违约”，将不支付2022年1月到期票据剩余本息； <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02018\">$瑞声科技(02018)$</a> 跌5%，预计2021年净利润同比减少约12","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月20日，香港恒生指数开盘上涨135.3点，涨幅0.56%，报24263.15点；国企指数开盘上涨63.69点，涨幅0.75%，报8505.38点；红筹指数开盘上涨25.04点，涨幅0.6%，报4178.41点。 恒生科技指数开涨0.88%，科技股多数上扬，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 涨超2%； 新能源汽车股走低，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$</a> 跌超2%； 地产股多数上涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03383\">$雅居乐集团(03383)$</a> 涨7.5%，碧桂园服务、融创中国涨近7%； <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03883\">$中国奥园(03883)$</a> 跌5.7%，此前官宣“违约”，将不支付2022年1月到期票据剩余本息； <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02018\">$瑞声科技(02018)$</a> 跌5%，预计2021年净利润同比减少约12","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月20日，香港恒生指数开盘上涨135.3点，涨幅0.56%，报24263.15点；国企指数开盘上涨63.69点，涨幅0.75%，报8505.38点；红筹指数开盘上涨25.04点，涨幅0.6%，报4178.41点。 恒生科技指数开涨0.88%，科技股多数上扬，$网易-S(09999)$ 涨超3%，$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 涨超2%； 新能源汽车股走低，$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$ 跌超3%，$理想汽车-W(02015)$ 跌超2%； 地产股多数上涨，$雅居乐集团(03383)$ 涨7.5%，碧桂园服务、融创中国涨近7%； $中国奥园(03883)$ 跌5.7%，此前官宣“违约”，将不支付2022年1月到期票据剩余本息； $瑞声科技(02018)$ 跌5%，预计2021年净利润同比减少约12","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630048732","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639390959,"gmtCreate":1643157946382,"gmtModify":1643157946520,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ANY\">$Sphere 3D(ANY)$</a>wow","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ANY\">$Sphere 3D(ANY)$</a>wow","text":"$Sphere 3D(ANY)$wow","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65d3b53fc3d1fe4f86095ccf590f94c8","width":"1080","height":"3501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639390959","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639929794,"gmtCreate":1643124048433,"gmtModify":1643124048526,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639929794","repostId":"630976407","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630976407,"gmtCreate":1642683848696,"gmtModify":1642731960724,"author":{"id":"3545283030659470","authorId":"3545283030659470","name":"亿航智能","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef016490dead4163e0a7206e661ce008","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3545283030659470","idStr":"3545283030659470"},"themes":[],"title":"亿航智能获得日本50架EH216预售订单","htmlText":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","listText":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EH\">$亿航智能(EH)$</a>&nbsp;控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","text":"中国广州，2022年1月20日——全球领先的智能自动驾驶飞行器科技企业$亿航智能(EH)$ 控股有限公司（Nasdaq: EH）（下文简称“亿航智能”或“公司”）今天宣布日本领先的空中交通数字平台公司AirX株式会社（下文简称“AirX”）订购了50架EH216系列自动驾驶飞行器。这是亿航智能迄今在日本获得的最大一笔预售订单。图：亿航智能与AirX预售协议签约仪式此次签约订单体现出亿航智能领先的自动驾驶飞行器在业界的认可度不断提高。AirX订购的EH216自动驾驶飞行器，计划应用于日本的城市空中交通项目，并有望为2025年大阪·关西世界博览会提供空中的士服务。作为日本领先的直升机服务平台提供商，AirX开发运营的航班预订平台已经覆盖了100多条直升机观光航线，以及私人直升机包机服务。每年，AirX平台在日本各地提供的直升机观光航班预订量达2,000多架次，私人直升机包机航班超过200架次。自成立以来，AirX已累计服务超过15,000名包机客户。 AirX创始人兼CEO手冢究表示：“低空出行以及低空旅游市场前景广阔。EH216具有自动驾驶、集群调度的优势，能够为客户提供高性价比的空中游览服务，这也是AirX在全球eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞行器行业中选择亿航智能作为合作伙伴的原因。我们期待未来通过EH216，为消费者提供更加安全、便捷的出行选择。” 亿航智能创始人、董事长兼首席执行官胡华智表示：“与AirX的合作是亿航智能进一步探索和发展日本城市空中交通市场的重要里程碑。我们非常高兴地看到，越来越多的航空运输合作伙伴正在致力于将亿航智能安全、自动、环保的城市空中交通解决方案惠及普通大众。” 关于亿航智能亿航智能（Nasdaq: EH）是一家全球领先的智能自","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5086aa281e4b1206a4e7fb683f41213","width":"632","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630976407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639929487,"gmtCreate":1643124041095,"gmtModify":1643124041233,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639929487","repostId":"697815514","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697815514,"gmtCreate":1642400304357,"gmtModify":1642423724583,"author":{"id":"4092209177497620","authorId":"4092209177497620","name":"美股研习社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504f9801d521d1863fa1d263ff8ea79d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092209177497620","idStr":"4092209177497620"},"themes":[],"title":"美股掘金 | 议员股神佩洛西的财富密码","htmlText":"摘要：或许议员比机构持仓更有指导意义 作者：美股研习社 刚过去的21年无疑是资本市场极不寻常的一年：通胀爆表，成长股腰斩式杀估值，中概寒冬，美联储年末转鹰...投资者们面临了比往常更多的挑战。而迈入22年，美股一直处在大幅震荡中，焦虑的市场仿佛找不到方向。 那么今年到底应该买什么呢？或许这个问题可以从一个特殊的群体中找到些蛛丝马迹，比如女议员“股神”佩洛西。在说佩洛西之前，我们不妨先来对比看看20年一战封神的另一位女股神Cathie Wood，Ark基金的掌门人“木头姐”。 01 木头姐的韭菜之路？ 20年木头姐因为旗舰基金Arkk重仓特斯拉走上神坛，被誉为“牛市女王”，受到一众散户追捧。而且她的每日操作公开透明，所以也方便追踪和抄作业。然而时间进入21年，如上图可见Arkk的表现可谓是江河日下，近一年回报率为触目惊心的-44.7%。 如果说是熊市，也许情有可原，然而同期标普500的表现却是+24.5——一来一回是高达近70个点的差距，如果去年选择长持Arkk的朋友可想而知...这也就是越来越多网友怒称其是“大韭菜”的原因，以至于甚至有专门做空Ark的SARK基金横空出世——如下图，SARK 11月成立以来回报率尽然高达约50%。 SARK成立以来走势 进一步来看，木头姐去年除了特斯拉，基本没有任何可圈可点的地方。而且去年Q4，她还在连续卖出特斯拉，不断加仓她认为的未来有颠覆式创新能力的公司，比如Teladoc Health，Roku、Zoom等等。 也许这些木头姐的心水股在5年乃至更久的时间也会有不错的回报，但目前仍然没有看到困境反转的点。比如Arkk目前第四重仓的Roku（持仓占比5.91%，相较21Q3仍有上升），股价自高点已下跌近70%，而关键基本面数据仍没有向好的趋势—— 从最近季度21Q3的财报数据来看，Roku的营收同比增长51%，和华尔街预期基本in lin","listText":"摘要：或许议员比机构持仓更有指导意义 作者：美股研习社 刚过去的21年无疑是资本市场极不寻常的一年：通胀爆表，成长股腰斩式杀估值，中概寒冬，美联储年末转鹰...投资者们面临了比往常更多的挑战。而迈入22年，美股一直处在大幅震荡中，焦虑的市场仿佛找不到方向。 那么今年到底应该买什么呢？或许这个问题可以从一个特殊的群体中找到些蛛丝马迹，比如女议员“股神”佩洛西。在说佩洛西之前，我们不妨先来对比看看20年一战封神的另一位女股神Cathie Wood，Ark基金的掌门人“木头姐”。 01 木头姐的韭菜之路？ 20年木头姐因为旗舰基金Arkk重仓特斯拉走上神坛，被誉为“牛市女王”，受到一众散户追捧。而且她的每日操作公开透明，所以也方便追踪和抄作业。然而时间进入21年，如上图可见Arkk的表现可谓是江河日下，近一年回报率为触目惊心的-44.7%。 如果说是熊市，也许情有可原，然而同期标普500的表现却是+24.5——一来一回是高达近70个点的差距，如果去年选择长持Arkk的朋友可想而知...这也就是越来越多网友怒称其是“大韭菜”的原因，以至于甚至有专门做空Ark的SARK基金横空出世——如下图，SARK 11月成立以来回报率尽然高达约50%。 SARK成立以来走势 进一步来看，木头姐去年除了特斯拉，基本没有任何可圈可点的地方。而且去年Q4，她还在连续卖出特斯拉，不断加仓她认为的未来有颠覆式创新能力的公司，比如Teladoc Health，Roku、Zoom等等。 也许这些木头姐的心水股在5年乃至更久的时间也会有不错的回报，但目前仍然没有看到困境反转的点。比如Arkk目前第四重仓的Roku（持仓占比5.91%，相较21Q3仍有上升），股价自高点已下跌近70%，而关键基本面数据仍没有向好的趋势—— 从最近季度21Q3的财报数据来看，Roku的营收同比增长51%，和华尔街预期基本in lin","text":"摘要：或许议员比机构持仓更有指导意义 作者：美股研习社 刚过去的21年无疑是资本市场极不寻常的一年：通胀爆表，成长股腰斩式杀估值，中概寒冬，美联储年末转鹰...投资者们面临了比往常更多的挑战。而迈入22年，美股一直处在大幅震荡中，焦虑的市场仿佛找不到方向。 那么今年到底应该买什么呢？或许这个问题可以从一个特殊的群体中找到些蛛丝马迹，比如女议员“股神”佩洛西。在说佩洛西之前，我们不妨先来对比看看20年一战封神的另一位女股神Cathie Wood，Ark基金的掌门人“木头姐”。 01 木头姐的韭菜之路？ 20年木头姐因为旗舰基金Arkk重仓特斯拉走上神坛，被誉为“牛市女王”，受到一众散户追捧。而且她的每日操作公开透明，所以也方便追踪和抄作业。然而时间进入21年，如上图可见Arkk的表现可谓是江河日下，近一年回报率为触目惊心的-44.7%。 如果说是熊市，也许情有可原，然而同期标普500的表现却是+24.5——一来一回是高达近70个点的差距，如果去年选择长持Arkk的朋友可想而知...这也就是越来越多网友怒称其是“大韭菜”的原因，以至于甚至有专门做空Ark的SARK基金横空出世——如下图，SARK 11月成立以来回报率尽然高达约50%。 SARK成立以来走势 进一步来看，木头姐去年除了特斯拉，基本没有任何可圈可点的地方。而且去年Q4，她还在连续卖出特斯拉，不断加仓她认为的未来有颠覆式创新能力的公司，比如Teladoc Health，Roku、Zoom等等。 也许这些木头姐的心水股在5年乃至更久的时间也会有不错的回报，但目前仍然没有看到困境反转的点。比如Arkk目前第四重仓的Roku（持仓占比5.91%，相较21Q3仍有上升），股价自高点已下跌近70%，而关键基本面数据仍没有向好的趋势—— 从最近季度21Q3的财报数据来看，Roku的营收同比增长51%，和华尔街预期基本in lin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80e51e3ba1c44d347259ffdcf9a90c6","width":"589","height":"297"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697815514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639929552,"gmtCreate":1643124033009,"gmtModify":1643124033136,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639929552","repostId":"697422155","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697422155,"gmtCreate":1642567058619,"gmtModify":1642589799449,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667591235607","idStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"年度捡钱机会来了！最适合ATVI的期权操作！","htmlText":"“上帝给暴雪关上了一个door，就会给他开一扇Windows”。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 在毫无征兆的情况下，宣布将以每股95美元的价格全现金<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$动视暴雪(ATVI)$</a> ，交易总价值687亿美元，较ATVI的前天收盘溢价45%。全球游戏玩家和股民炸开了锅。 这不仅是迄今为止全球游戏行业内规模最大的收购案，也是微软自1975年成立以来所进行的最大一笔收购。交易完成后，微软将获得动视暴雪和子公司King旗下所有工作室的运营管理权，暴雪旗下的游戏我就不细数了，80年代的回忆杀。全现金、明年完成！微软和暴雪的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata={&quot;liveId&quot;:&quot;16425609441647&quot;}\" target=\"_blank\">电话会</a>中显示双方都认为这个收购是完美的！说明交易成功性非常高，这对近期深陷丑闻漩涡暴雪来说无疑是迎来了一次涅槃重生的机会。而这笔交易的完成，也意味着微软将超过任天堂成为全球收入第三高的游戏公司，仅次于腾讯和索尼。微软CEO纳德拉表示，这笔交易将对微软下一步开发元宇宙发挥关键作用，这些游戏IP将是元宇宙的入口。 关于收购的分析今天已经很多，推荐大家看今天电话会的文字稿，非常具有前瞻指导。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/697415374\" target=\"_blank\">微软687亿美元并购动视暴雪会议纪要完整版</a>","listText":"“上帝给暴雪关上了一个door，就会给他开一扇Windows”。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 在毫无征兆的情况下，宣布将以每股95美元的价格全现金<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$动视暴雪(ATVI)$</a> 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关于收购的分析今天已经很多，推荐大家看今天电话会的文字稿，非常具有前瞻指导。 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关于收购的分析今天已经很多，推荐大家看今天电话会的文字稿，非常具有前瞻指导。 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“Sea” 受到腾讯的减持，使腾讯对 Sea 的股权从 21.3% 减少至 18.7%。受到市场调整、游戏用户增速放缓、腾讯减持等影响。进入 10 月以来，Sea 从最高 372 美元的位置已经跌到 187 美元，跌幅超过 50%，而且短期仍未看到企稳的迹象。尽管 Sea 短期承压，但是长期受到东南亚人口红利、经济高增长、互联网渗透率低、人口结构年轻化等利好因素，Sea 依靠在游戏 + 电商 + 数字支付三架马车飞速前进，Sea 不仅是东南亚的领导者，而且很可能成为电子商务领域国际扩 张的领导者。腾讯的减持将不会影响Sea长期的投资价值，2022年Sea值得我们重点关注。Sea三大核心部门Sea Ltd.是一家经营电商平台、制作数字游戏并提供在线金融服务的公司，由三个主要业务部门组成——Garena（数字娱 乐）、Shopee（电子商务）和 SeaMoney（数字金融服务）。Garena 是在线游戏开发和发行领域的全球领导者之一。其最具标志性的自研游戏是Freefire，它是2019年和2020年全球下载量最大的手游。 其次，Shopee 是 Sea 的电子商务部门。Shopee 是东南亚和台湾地区最大的电子商 务公司。在东南亚，Shopee 每月获得3.43 亿次访问，而第二大玩家 Tokopedia 获得 的网站访问量不到一半。 最后，Sea money 是 Sea 的金融服务和支付部门。它目前也是东南亚领先的金融服务和支付提供商。近两年，东南亚互联网行业在全球的影响力有不断提升，以亚马逊、沃尔玛、阿里巴巴、腾讯等都在加大资本入局这个市场。在外部资本力量加持，推动了Sea Limited、Lazada以及本土互联网企业的飞速发展。Sea Limited 一直在积极对其业务进行再投资，以迅速占领市场份额并扩大其在每个地区的用户群。从新","listText":"摘要：近期由于有着东南亚小腾讯之称的 “Sea” 受到腾讯的减持，使腾讯对 Sea 的股权从 21.3% 减少至 18.7%。受到市场调整、游戏用户增速放缓、腾讯减持等影响。进入 10 月以来，Sea 从最高 372 美元的位置已经跌到 187 美元，跌幅超过 50%，而且短期仍未看到企稳的迹象。尽管 Sea 短期承压，但是长期受到东南亚人口红利、经济高增长、互联网渗透率低、人口结构年轻化等利好因素，Sea 依靠在游戏 + 电商 + 数字支付三架马车飞速前进，Sea 不仅是东南亚的领导者，而且很可能成为电子商务领域国际扩 张的领导者。腾讯的减持将不会影响Sea长期的投资价值，2022年Sea值得我们重点关注。Sea三大核心部门Sea Ltd.是一家经营电商平台、制作数字游戏并提供在线金融服务的公司，由三个主要业务部门组成——Garena（数字娱 乐）、Shopee（电子商务）和 SeaMoney（数字金融服务）。Garena 是在线游戏开发和发行领域的全球领导者之一。其最具标志性的自研游戏是Freefire，它是2019年和2020年全球下载量最大的手游。 其次，Shopee 是 Sea 的电子商务部门。Shopee 是东南亚和台湾地区最大的电子商 务公司。在东南亚，Shopee 每月获得3.43 亿次访问，而第二大玩家 Tokopedia 获得 的网站访问量不到一半。 最后，Sea money 是 Sea 的金融服务和支付部门。它目前也是东南亚领先的金融服务和支付提供商。近两年，东南亚互联网行业在全球的影响力有不断提升，以亚马逊、沃尔玛、阿里巴巴、腾讯等都在加大资本入局这个市场。在外部资本力量加持，推动了Sea Limited、Lazada以及本土互联网企业的飞速发展。Sea Limited 一直在积极对其业务进行再投资，以迅速占领市场份额并扩大其在每个地区的用户群。从新","text":"摘要：近期由于有着东南亚小腾讯之称的 “Sea” 受到腾讯的减持，使腾讯对 Sea 的股权从 21.3% 减少至 18.7%。受到市场调整、游戏用户增速放缓、腾讯减持等影响。进入 10 月以来，Sea 从最高 372 美元的位置已经跌到 187 美元，跌幅超过 50%，而且短期仍未看到企稳的迹象。尽管 Sea 短期承压，但是长期受到东南亚人口红利、经济高增长、互联网渗透率低、人口结构年轻化等利好因素，Sea 依靠在游戏 + 电商 + 数字支付三架马车飞速前进，Sea 不仅是东南亚的领导者，而且很可能成为电子商务领域国际扩 张的领导者。腾讯的减持将不会影响Sea长期的投资价值，2022年Sea值得我们重点关注。Sea三大核心部门Sea Ltd.是一家经营电商平台、制作数字游戏并提供在线金融服务的公司，由三个主要业务部门组成——Garena（数字娱 乐）、Shopee（电子商务）和 SeaMoney（数字金融服务）。Garena 是在线游戏开发和发行领域的全球领导者之一。其最具标志性的自研游戏是Freefire，它是2019年和2020年全球下载量最大的手游。 其次，Shopee 是 Sea 的电子商务部门。Shopee 是东南亚和台湾地区最大的电子商 务公司。在东南亚，Shopee 每月获得3.43 亿次访问，而第二大玩家 Tokopedia 获得 的网站访问量不到一半。 最后，Sea money 是 Sea 的金融服务和支付部门。它目前也是东南亚领先的金融服务和支付提供商。近两年，东南亚互联网行业在全球的影响力有不断提升，以亚马逊、沃尔玛、阿里巴巴、腾讯等都在加大资本入局这个市场。在外部资本力量加持，推动了Sea Limited、Lazada以及本土互联网企业的飞速发展。Sea Limited 一直在积极对其业务进行再投资，以迅速占领市场份额并扩大其在每个地区的用户群。从新","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c16e132cb2ff763970eb2f8ce84212bf","width":"600","height":"320"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694041476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630615440,"gmtCreate":1642813967275,"gmtModify":1642813967429,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630615440","repostId":"697010885","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697010885,"gmtCreate":1642155121962,"gmtModify":1642171859752,"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3480300888703096","idStr":"3480300888703096"},"themes":[],"title":"起飞，达美！押注航空股？","htmlText":"昨天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a> 以自身高水准业绩，拉开了航空公司财报季序幕。业绩可喜，也成功带动板块其他公司上扬。一度，达美航空、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">$捷蓝航空(JBLU)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$</a> 的股价均上涨5%，市场预期经济即将复苏。 达美航空业绩 众所周知由于疫情，航空公司备受打击，2020年何其惨淡，2021年则动荡不安。投资者在权衡被压抑的需求反弹，也在应对新型号病毒和新旅行限制的威胁。而，更想知道2022年行业会如何进展，达美昨天财报提供了乐观的理由。 第四季公司营收为94.7亿美元，每股盈利为0.22美元，高于市场预估92亿美元营收0.14美元EPS。 （达美航空季度财务数据） 调整后的税前利润1.7亿美元，调整后的营业收入84亿美元，较2019年同一季度疫情前的表现恢复了74%。同时运力恢复到两年前的水平。此外，调整后的运营费用下降了19%，即19亿美元，表明达美航空为渡过疫情而实施了巨大的成本控制。 全年业绩来看，应该说喜忧参半。调整后的税前损失34亿美元被联邦工资支持计划的38亿美元抵消，而调整后的营业收入267亿美元较2019年的水平恢复了57%，","listText":"昨天，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a> 以自身高水准业绩，拉开了航空公司财报季序幕。业绩可喜，也成功带动板块其他公司上扬。一度，达美航空、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">$联合大陆航空(UAL)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JBLU\">$捷蓝航空(JBLU)$</a> 和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVE\">$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$</a> 的股价均上涨5%，市场预期经济即将复苏。 达美航空业绩 众所周知由于疫情，航空公司备受打击，2020年何其惨淡，2021年则动荡不安。投资者在权衡被压抑的需求反弹，也在应对新型号病毒和新旅行限制的威胁。而，更想知道2022年行业会如何进展，达美昨天财报提供了乐观的理由。 第四季公司营收为94.7亿美元，每股盈利为0.22美元，高于市场预估92亿美元营收0.14美元EPS。 （达美航空季度财务数据） 调整后的税前利润1.7亿美元，调整后的营业收入84亿美元，较2019年同一季度疫情前的表现恢复了74%。同时运力恢复到两年前的水平。此外，调整后的运营费用下降了19%，即19亿美元，表明达美航空为渡过疫情而实施了巨大的成本控制。 全年业绩来看，应该说喜忧参半。调整后的税前损失34亿美元被联邦工资支持计划的38亿美元抵消，而调整后的营业收入267亿美元较2019年的水平恢复了57%，","text":"昨天，$达美航空(DAL)$ 以自身高水准业绩，拉开了航空公司财报季序幕。业绩可喜，也成功带动板块其他公司上扬。一度，达美航空、$美国航空(AAL)$ 、$联合大陆航空(UAL)$ 、$捷蓝航空(JBLU)$ 和$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$ 的股价均上涨5%，市场预期经济即将复苏。 达美航空业绩 众所周知由于疫情，航空公司备受打击，2020年何其惨淡，2021年则动荡不安。投资者在权衡被压抑的需求反弹，也在应对新型号病毒和新旅行限制的威胁。而，更想知道2022年行业会如何进展，达美昨天财报提供了乐观的理由。 第四季公司营收为94.7亿美元，每股盈利为0.22美元，高于市场预估92亿美元营收0.14美元EPS。 （达美航空季度财务数据） 调整后的税前利润1.7亿美元，调整后的营业收入84亿美元，较2019年同一季度疫情前的表现恢复了74%。同时运力恢复到两年前的水平。此外，调整后的运营费用下降了19%，即19亿美元，表明达美航空为渡过疫情而实施了巨大的成本控制。 全年业绩来看，应该说喜忧参半。调整后的税前损失34亿美元被联邦工资支持计划的38亿美元抵消，而调整后的营业收入267亿美元较2019年的水平恢复了57%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20e2bb95df2ce3a94e88caebf8ee5029","width":"1650","height":"454"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c11a3dcfbc3c1ff40b2cdefb703b9b1","width":"1800","height":"1200"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad4baf29f7ec733d8843206be2e4133","width":"1078","height":"360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697010885","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630615238,"gmtCreate":1642813933364,"gmtModify":1642813933498,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630615238","repostId":"694349467","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":694349467,"gmtCreate":1641828442879,"gmtModify":1641857757161,"author":{"id":"3544246156971272","authorId":"3544246156971272","name":"Roger0812","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52efe7eee81a3934f3f72bf1f558dc18","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3544246156971272","idStr":"3544246156971272"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>今天又补仓期权，60多的本，现在1块多也不亏了是吧，我就想赌一赌。愿赌服输！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>今天又补仓期权，60多的本，现在1块多也不亏了是吧，我就想赌一赌。愿赌服输！","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$今天又补仓期权，60多的本，现在1块多也不亏了是吧，我就想赌一赌。愿赌服输！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694349467","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630814287,"gmtCreate":1642773216148,"gmtModify":1642773218454,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upup","listText":"Upup","text":"Upup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630814287","repostId":"1132830350","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1132830350","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642744904,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132830350?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-21 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal Earnings Are Coming. Here's What to Expect.<blockquote>万事达卡、Visa卡和PayPal卡的财报即将公布。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132830350","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal are about to report earnings, so let's take a look at what investors ne","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal are about to report earnings, so let&#39;s take a look at what investors need to know.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>万事达卡、Visa卡和PayPal卡即将公布财报，让我们来看看投资者需要了解的内容。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h3>Mastercard</h3>Mastercard is set to release its earnings data before the market opens on Thursday, January 27th.</p><p><blockquote><h3>万事达卡</h3>万事达卡将于1月27日星期四开盘前发布盈利数据。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $2.19 per share for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计该公司将公布本季度每股收益2.19美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts think disruption in the payments space could continue to weigh on Mastercard.</p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，支付领域的混乱可能会继续给万事达卡带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s a lot of disruption in the fintech space right now, and there are fears that hefty margins enjoyed by credit card companies for many years may be in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>目前金融科技领域存在很多混乱，人们担心信用卡公司多年来享有的高额利润可能会受到威胁。</blockquote></p><p>Undoubtedly, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is a hot trend in the fintech space, promising no interest on payment plans based on fixed installments. For consumers, it&#39;s a great deal versus the incredibly high interest on credit card debt, arguably one of the priciest debts to have aside from pay-day loan debt.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，先买后付(BNPL)是金融科技领域的热门趋势，承诺基于固定分期付款的付款计划不收取利息。对于消费者来说，与信用卡债务令人难以置信的高利息相比，这是一笔划算的交易，信用卡债务可以说是除了发薪日贷款债务之外最昂贵的债务之一。</blockquote></p><p>With digital retail kingpin Amazon previously remarking on high fees on Visa (V) cards, retailers could side with consumers as up-and-comers duke it out in the payments space in what could become a race to the bottom in terms of rates charged on consumer debts.</p><p><blockquote>随着数字零售巨头亚马逊此前对Visa(V)卡的高额费用发表评论，零售商可能会站在消费者一边，因为后起之秀在支付领域一决高下，这可能会成为一场消费者债务费率的逐底竞赛。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts view the rise of BNPL firms and ongoing disruption in the payments space as a potentially long-lasting headwind that could continue to weigh on many incumbents.</p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，BNPL公司的崛起和支付领域的持续混乱可能是一个长期的阻力，可能会继续给许多现有公司带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>While credit card issuers have created their own BNPL offerings, such moves are unlikely to stop the erosion of margins in credit cards that have helped firms like Mastercard and Visa grow earnings at an enviable pace over the years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信用卡发行商已经创建了自己的BNPL产品，但此类举措不太可能阻止信用卡利润率的侵蚀，而信用卡多年来帮助万事达卡和Visa等公司以令人羡慕的速度增长了盈利。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Visa</h3>Visa is scheduled to be announcing its earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, January 27th.</p><p><blockquote><h3>签证</h3>Visa计划于1月27日星期四收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p>This global payments processor is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of 19%.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球支付处理商预计将在即将发布的报告中公布季度收益为每股1.69美元，同比变化19%。</blockquote></p><p>Revenues are expected to be $6.76 billion, up 18.9% from the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入预计为67.6亿美元，比去年同期增长18.9%。</blockquote></p><p>Visa has launched multiple cryptocurrency initiatives in recent years as the company seeks to remain relevant in the changing payment industry. The company viewed cryptocurrency as a massive expansion from the fiat currency as more consumers recognized the value of the decentralized system. In addition, Visa also seeks to enhance its cross-border payment solutions as more fintech delivers more transparency and value to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，Visa推出了多项加密货币计划，该公司寻求在不断变化的支付行业中保持相关性。随着越来越多的消费者认识到去中心化系统的价值，该公司将加密货币视为法定货币的大规模扩张。此外，随着更多金融科技为消费者提供更多透明度和价值，Visa还寻求增强其跨境支付解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>The cryptocurrency market experienced extreme growth by the end of 2021, surpassing $3T of value in November, representing an increase of 375% since the start of the year. In addition, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $68.7K on 10 November 2021, while Ether hit $4.4K on 11 November 2021.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，加密货币市场经历了极端增长，11月份价值超过3T美元，自年初以来增长了375%。此外，比特币在2021年11月10日触及6.87万美元的历史高点，而以太币在2021年11月11日触及4.4万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect the cryptocurrency market to perform well as a long-term digital asset with increased institutional adoption and federal government regulation. As a result, it made sense for Visa to perform a crucial bridging role between &#34;banks, crypto trading, and custody platforms,&#34; as more consumers embrace the decentralized currency. Moving forward, Analysts expect to see Visa flourish alongside the cryptocurrency market&#39;s macro growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，随着机构采用和联邦政府监管的增加，加密货币市场作为长期数字资产将表现良好。因此，随着越来越多的消费者接受这种去中心化货币，Visa在“银行、加密交易和托管平台”之间发挥至关重要的桥梁作用是有意义的。展望未来，分析师预计Visa将随着加密货币市场的宏观增长趋势而蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>In December 2021, Visa reported that it had acquired Currencycloud, a B2B cross-border payments solution, in a £700M deal. The company expects to further enhance its existing cross-border payments through the acquisition, on top of its current strategic partnership since 2019. Currencycloud currently supports 500 banking and technology clients in 180 countries, with over $5B in monthly cross-border transactions. Globally, around $1.9T of payment revenues are reported in 2020, with the number expected to rise to $2.5T by 2025, at a CAGR of 5.64%. It shows that global businesses are growing exponentially and that legacy payment platforms like Visa needs to innovate to stay competitive.</p><p><blockquote>2021年12月，Visa宣布以7亿英镑的价格收购了B2B跨境支付解决方案Currencycloud。该公司预计在2019年以来的战略合作伙伴关系基础上，通过此次收购进一步增强其现有的跨境支付。Currencycloud目前支持180个国家的500家银行和技术客户，每月跨境交易超过50亿美元。据报道，2020年全球支付收入约为1.9 T美元，预计到2025年这一数字将升至2.5 T美元，CAGR为5.64%。这表明全球企业正在呈指数级增长，Visa等传统支付平台需要创新才能保持竞争力。</blockquote></p><p>As a result, Visa and its consumers stand to gain from the enhanced cross-border payments as global B2B businesses and eCommerce becomes more mainstream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着全球B2B业务和电子商务变得更加主流，Visa及其消费者将从跨境支付的增强中受益。</blockquote></p><p><h3>PayPal</h3>Early next month, PayPal will deliver 4Q21’s financials, and after lowering expectations last quarter, Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Keane expects the digital payments giant to deliver “steady growth.”</p><p><blockquote><h3>PayPal</h3>下月初，PayPal将公布2021年第四季度的财务数据，在上季度下调预期后，德银的布莱恩·基恩预计这家数字支付巨头将实现“稳定增长”。</blockquote></p><p>Boosted by ~24% year-over-year TPV growth, the analyst anticipates PYPL will generate revenue growth of ~12.9% and EPS of $1.12.</p><p><blockquote>在TPV同比增长约24%的推动下，分析师预计PYPL的收入将增长约12.9%，每股收益将达到1.12美元。</blockquote></p><p>That said, Keane does not foresee any unexpected fireworks. “Given the latest quarterly trends in eComm, continued supply-chain issues, delta/omicron, and eBay headwinds, we see relatively limited upside again this quarter,” said the 5-star analyst.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，基恩没有预见到任何意想不到的烟花。这位五星级分析师表示：“鉴于eComm的最新季度趋势、持续的供应链问题、达美航空/奥密克戎和eBay的不利因素，我们认为本季度的上涨空间再次相对有限。”</blockquote></p><p>Looking at PayPal’s monthly users trends, Keane’s expected results appear in the same ballpark as the quarter’s action. Unique Visitors (UVs) rose by 14% sequentially from 676.8 million to 769 million and came in 11% above the figure reported during the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>从PayPal的月度用户趋势来看，基恩的预期结果与本季度的表现大致相同。独立访客(UV)环比增长14%，从6.768亿增至7.69亿，比去年同期增长11%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d650fa1f74de4036b93480e5e8873a41\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Looking ahead to 1Q22, similar to 4Q21, given the “more difficult comps” yet offset by “moderating eBay headwinds,” Keane thinks PayPal will “potentially” guide to cc revenue growth of ~12-14%.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年第一季度，与2021年第四季度类似，考虑到“更困难的比较”但被“eBay不利因素缓和”所抵消，Keane认为PayPal将“潜在”引导cc收入增长约12-14%。</blockquote></p><p>That, however, “should mark the trough as growth rates steady and start to re-accelerate.” In fact, by 4Q22, Keane anticipates revenue growth will increase to 20% year-over-year with EPS potentially seeing out 2022 up by 25%. This is due to both easier comps and the addition of “modest incremental momentum” from the Super App.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这“应该标志着增长率稳定并开始重新加速的低谷。”事实上，根据2022年第四季度，基恩预计收入同比增长将增至20%，2022年每股收益可能增长25%。这是由于更容易的comps和超级应用程序增加了“适度的增量动力”。</blockquote></p><p>In September, the company launched the first version of the Super App, which mixes services such as BNPL and crypto with “new products” including high-yield savings, in-app shopping tools, deals, rewards and bill pay. Over the coming months, the app’s features will be further enhanced with the introduction of additional investment capabilities, new online and in-store shopping processes, and “better PYPL branded capabilities.” The company also recently announced it is looking at potentially adding its own stablecoin.</p><p><blockquote>9月，该公司推出了第一个版本的超级应用程序，该应用程序将BNPL和加密等服务与包括高收益储蓄、应用内购物工具、交易、奖励和账单支付在内的“新产品”相结合。未来几个月，该应用程序的功能将进一步增强，引入额外的投资功能、新的在线和店内购物流程以及“更好的PYPL品牌功能”。该公司最近还宣布，它正在考虑添加自己的稳定币。</blockquote></p><p>Keane reiterated a Buy rating while sticking to a $260 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Keane重申了买入评级，同时坚持260美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal Earnings Are Coming. Here's What to Expect.<blockquote>万事达卡、Visa卡和PayPal卡的财报即将公布。这是可以期待的。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMastercard, Visa, and PayPal Earnings Are Coming. Here's What to Expect.<blockquote>万事达卡、Visa卡和PayPal卡的财报即将公布。这是可以期待的。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-21 14:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal are about to report earnings, so let&#39;s take a look at what investors need to know.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>万事达卡、Visa卡和PayPal卡即将公布财报，让我们来看看投资者需要了解的内容。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h3>Mastercard</h3>Mastercard is set to release its earnings data before the market opens on Thursday, January 27th.</p><p><blockquote><h3>万事达卡</h3>万事达卡将于1月27日星期四开盘前发布盈利数据。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $2.19 per share for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计该公司将公布本季度每股收益2.19美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts think disruption in the payments space could continue to weigh on Mastercard.</p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，支付领域的混乱可能会继续给万事达卡带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s a lot of disruption in the fintech space right now, and there are fears that hefty margins enjoyed by credit card companies for many years may be in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>目前金融科技领域存在很多混乱，人们担心信用卡公司多年来享有的高额利润可能会受到威胁。</blockquote></p><p>Undoubtedly, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is a hot trend in the fintech space, promising no interest on payment plans based on fixed installments. For consumers, it&#39;s a great deal versus the incredibly high interest on credit card debt, arguably one of the priciest debts to have aside from pay-day loan debt.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，先买后付(BNPL)是金融科技领域的热门趋势，承诺基于固定分期付款的付款计划不收取利息。对于消费者来说，与信用卡债务令人难以置信的高利息相比，这是一笔划算的交易，信用卡债务可以说是除了发薪日贷款债务之外最昂贵的债务之一。</blockquote></p><p>With digital retail kingpin Amazon previously remarking on high fees on Visa (V) cards, retailers could side with consumers as up-and-comers duke it out in the payments space in what could become a race to the bottom in terms of rates charged on consumer debts.</p><p><blockquote>随着数字零售巨头亚马逊此前对Visa(V)卡的高额费用发表评论，零售商可能会站在消费者一边，因为后起之秀在支付领域一决高下，这可能会成为一场消费者债务费率的逐底竞赛。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts view the rise of BNPL firms and ongoing disruption in the payments space as a potentially long-lasting headwind that could continue to weigh on many incumbents.</p><p><blockquote>分析师认为，BNPL公司的崛起和支付领域的持续混乱可能是一个长期的阻力，可能会继续给许多现有公司带来压力。</blockquote></p><p>While credit card issuers have created their own BNPL offerings, such moves are unlikely to stop the erosion of margins in credit cards that have helped firms like Mastercard and Visa grow earnings at an enviable pace over the years.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信用卡发行商已经创建了自己的BNPL产品，但此类举措不太可能阻止信用卡利润率的侵蚀，而信用卡多年来帮助万事达卡和Visa等公司以令人羡慕的速度增长了盈利。</blockquote></p><p><h3>Visa</h3>Visa is scheduled to be announcing its earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, January 27th.</p><p><blockquote><h3>签证</h3>Visa计划于1月27日星期四收盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p>This global payments processor is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of 19%.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球支付处理商预计将在即将发布的报告中公布季度收益为每股1.69美元，同比变化19%。</blockquote></p><p>Revenues are expected to be $6.76 billion, up 18.9% from the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>收入预计为67.6亿美元，比去年同期增长18.9%。</blockquote></p><p>Visa has launched multiple cryptocurrency initiatives in recent years as the company seeks to remain relevant in the changing payment industry. The company viewed cryptocurrency as a massive expansion from the fiat currency as more consumers recognized the value of the decentralized system. In addition, Visa also seeks to enhance its cross-border payment solutions as more fintech delivers more transparency and value to consumers.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，Visa推出了多项加密货币计划，该公司寻求在不断变化的支付行业中保持相关性。随着越来越多的消费者认识到去中心化系统的价值，该公司将加密货币视为法定货币的大规模扩张。此外，随着更多金融科技为消费者提供更多透明度和价值，Visa还寻求增强其跨境支付解决方案。</blockquote></p><p>The cryptocurrency market experienced extreme growth by the end of 2021, surpassing $3T of value in November, representing an increase of 375% since the start of the year. In addition, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $68.7K on 10 November 2021, while Ether hit $4.4K on 11 November 2021.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底，加密货币市场经历了极端增长，11月份价值超过3T美元，自年初以来增长了375%。此外，比特币在2021年11月10日触及6.87万美元的历史高点，而以太币在2021年11月11日触及4.4万美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts expect the cryptocurrency market to perform well as a long-term digital asset with increased institutional adoption and federal government regulation. As a result, it made sense for Visa to perform a crucial bridging role between &#34;banks, crypto trading, and custody platforms,&#34; as more consumers embrace the decentralized currency. Moving forward, Analysts expect to see Visa flourish alongside the cryptocurrency market&#39;s macro growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，随着机构采用和联邦政府监管的增加，加密货币市场作为长期数字资产将表现良好。因此，随着越来越多的消费者接受这种去中心化货币，Visa在“银行、加密交易和托管平台”之间发挥至关重要的桥梁作用是有意义的。展望未来，分析师预计Visa将随着加密货币市场的宏观增长趋势而蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>In December 2021, Visa reported that it had acquired Currencycloud, a B2B cross-border payments solution, in a £700M deal. The company expects to further enhance its existing cross-border payments through the acquisition, on top of its current strategic partnership since 2019. Currencycloud currently supports 500 banking and technology clients in 180 countries, with over $5B in monthly cross-border transactions. Globally, around $1.9T of payment revenues are reported in 2020, with the number expected to rise to $2.5T by 2025, at a CAGR of 5.64%. It shows that global businesses are growing exponentially and that legacy payment platforms like Visa needs to innovate to stay competitive.</p><p><blockquote>2021年12月，Visa宣布以7亿英镑的价格收购了B2B跨境支付解决方案Currencycloud。该公司预计在2019年以来的战略合作伙伴关系基础上，通过此次收购进一步增强其现有的跨境支付。Currencycloud目前支持180个国家的500家银行和技术客户，每月跨境交易超过50亿美元。据报道，2020年全球支付收入约为1.9 T美元，预计到2025年这一数字将升至2.5 T美元，CAGR为5.64%。这表明全球企业正在呈指数级增长，Visa等传统支付平台需要创新才能保持竞争力。</blockquote></p><p>As a result, Visa and its consumers stand to gain from the enhanced cross-border payments as global B2B businesses and eCommerce becomes more mainstream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着全球B2B业务和电子商务变得更加主流，Visa及其消费者将从跨境支付的增强中受益。</blockquote></p><p><h3>PayPal</h3>Early next month, PayPal will deliver 4Q21’s financials, and after lowering expectations last quarter, Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Keane expects the digital payments giant to deliver “steady growth.”</p><p><blockquote><h3>PayPal</h3>下月初，PayPal将公布2021年第四季度的财务数据，在上季度下调预期后，德银的布莱恩·基恩预计这家数字支付巨头将实现“稳定增长”。</blockquote></p><p>Boosted by ~24% year-over-year TPV growth, the analyst anticipates PYPL will generate revenue growth of ~12.9% and EPS of $1.12.</p><p><blockquote>在TPV同比增长约24%的推动下，分析师预计PYPL的收入将增长约12.9%，每股收益将达到1.12美元。</blockquote></p><p>That said, Keane does not foresee any unexpected fireworks. “Given the latest quarterly trends in eComm, continued supply-chain issues, delta/omicron, and eBay headwinds, we see relatively limited upside again this quarter,” said the 5-star analyst.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，基恩没有预见到任何意想不到的烟花。这位五星级分析师表示：“鉴于eComm的最新季度趋势、持续的供应链问题、达美航空/奥密克戎和eBay的不利因素，我们认为本季度的上涨空间再次相对有限。”</blockquote></p><p>Looking at PayPal’s monthly users trends, Keane’s expected results appear in the same ballpark as the quarter’s action. Unique Visitors (UVs) rose by 14% sequentially from 676.8 million to 769 million and came in 11% above the figure reported during the same period last year.</p><p><blockquote>从PayPal的月度用户趋势来看，基恩的预期结果与本季度的表现大致相同。独立访客(UV)环比增长14%，从6.768亿增至7.69亿，比去年同期增长11%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d650fa1f74de4036b93480e5e8873a41\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Looking ahead to 1Q22, similar to 4Q21, given the “more difficult comps” yet offset by “moderating eBay headwinds,” Keane thinks PayPal will “potentially” guide to cc revenue growth of ~12-14%.</p><p><blockquote>展望2022年第一季度，与2021年第四季度类似，考虑到“更困难的比较”但被“eBay不利因素缓和”所抵消，Keane认为PayPal将“潜在”引导cc收入增长约12-14%。</blockquote></p><p>That, however, “should mark the trough as growth rates steady and start to re-accelerate.” In fact, by 4Q22, Keane anticipates revenue growth will increase to 20% year-over-year with EPS potentially seeing out 2022 up by 25%. This is due to both easier comps and the addition of “modest incremental momentum” from the Super App.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这“应该标志着增长率稳定并开始重新加速的低谷。”事实上，根据2022年第四季度，基恩预计收入同比增长将增至20%，2022年每股收益可能增长25%。这是由于更容易的comps和超级应用程序增加了“适度的增量动力”。</blockquote></p><p>In September, the company launched the first version of the Super App, which mixes services such as BNPL and crypto with “new products” including high-yield savings, in-app shopping tools, deals, rewards and bill pay. Over the coming months, the app’s features will be further enhanced with the introduction of additional investment capabilities, new online and in-store shopping processes, and “better PYPL branded capabilities.” The company also recently announced it is looking at potentially adding its own stablecoin.</p><p><blockquote>9月，该公司推出了第一个版本的超级应用程序，该应用程序将BNPL和加密等服务与包括高收益储蓄、应用内购物工具、交易、奖励和账单支付在内的“新产品”相结合。未来几个月，该应用程序的功能将进一步增强，引入额外的投资功能、新的在线和店内购物流程以及“更好的PYPL品牌功能”。该公司最近还宣布，它正在考虑添加自己的稳定币。</blockquote></p><p>Keane reiterated a Buy rating while sticking to a $260 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Keane重申了买入评级，同时坚持260美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MA":"万事达","V":"Visa","PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132830350","content_text":"Mastercard, Visa, and PayPal are about to report earnings, so let's take a look at what investors need to know.MastercardMastercard is set to release its earnings data before the market opens on Thursday, January 27th.Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $2.19 per share for the quarter.Analysts think disruption in the payments space could continue to weigh on Mastercard.There's a lot of disruption in the fintech space right now, and there are fears that hefty margins enjoyed by credit card companies for many years may be in jeopardy.Undoubtedly, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is a hot trend in the fintech space, promising no interest on payment plans based on fixed installments. For consumers, it's a great deal versus the incredibly high interest on credit card debt, arguably one of the priciest debts to have aside from pay-day loan debt.With digital retail kingpin Amazon previously remarking on high fees on Visa (V) cards, retailers could side with consumers as up-and-comers duke it out in the payments space in what could become a race to the bottom in terms of rates charged on consumer debts.Analysts view the rise of BNPL firms and ongoing disruption in the payments space as a potentially long-lasting headwind that could continue to weigh on many incumbents.While credit card issuers have created their own BNPL offerings, such moves are unlikely to stop the erosion of margins in credit cards that have helped firms like Mastercard and Visa grow earnings at an enviable pace over the years.VisaVisa is scheduled to be announcing its earnings results after the market closes on Thursday, January 27th.This global payments processor is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.69 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of 19%.Revenues are expected to be $6.76 billion, up 18.9% from the year-ago quarter.Visa has launched multiple cryptocurrency initiatives in recent years as the company seeks to remain relevant in the changing payment industry. The company viewed cryptocurrency as a massive expansion from the fiat currency as more consumers recognized the value of the decentralized system. In addition, Visa also seeks to enhance its cross-border payment solutions as more fintech delivers more transparency and value to consumers.The cryptocurrency market experienced extreme growth by the end of 2021, surpassing $3T of value in November, representing an increase of 375% since the start of the year. In addition, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $68.7K on 10 November 2021, while Ether hit $4.4K on 11 November 2021.Analysts expect the cryptocurrency market to perform well as a long-term digital asset with increased institutional adoption and federal government regulation. As a result, it made sense for Visa to perform a crucial bridging role between \"banks, crypto trading, and custody platforms,\" as more consumers embrace the decentralized currency. Moving forward, Analysts expect to see Visa flourish alongside the cryptocurrency market's macro growth trends.In December 2021, Visa reported that it had acquired Currencycloud, a B2B cross-border payments solution, in a £700M deal. The company expects to further enhance its existing cross-border payments through the acquisition, on top of its current strategic partnership since 2019. Currencycloud currently supports 500 banking and technology clients in 180 countries, with over $5B in monthly cross-border transactions. Globally, around $1.9T of payment revenues are reported in 2020, with the number expected to rise to $2.5T by 2025, at a CAGR of 5.64%. It shows that global businesses are growing exponentially and that legacy payment platforms like Visa needs to innovate to stay competitive.As a result, Visa and its consumers stand to gain from the enhanced cross-border payments as global B2B businesses and eCommerce becomes more mainstream.PayPalEarly next month, PayPal will deliver 4Q21’s financials, and after lowering expectations last quarter, Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Keane expects the digital payments giant to deliver “steady growth.”Boosted by ~24% year-over-year TPV growth, the analyst anticipates PYPL will generate revenue growth of ~12.9% and EPS of $1.12.That said, Keane does not foresee any unexpected fireworks. “Given the latest quarterly trends in eComm, continued supply-chain issues, delta/omicron, and eBay headwinds, we see relatively limited upside again this quarter,” said the 5-star analyst.Looking at PayPal’s monthly users trends, Keane’s expected results appear in the same ballpark as the quarter’s action. Unique Visitors (UVs) rose by 14% sequentially from 676.8 million to 769 million and came in 11% above the figure reported during the same period last year.Looking ahead to 1Q22, similar to 4Q21, given the “more difficult comps” yet offset by “moderating eBay headwinds,” Keane thinks PayPal will “potentially” guide to cc revenue growth of ~12-14%.That, however, “should mark the trough as growth rates steady and start to re-accelerate.” In fact, by 4Q22, Keane anticipates revenue growth will increase to 20% year-over-year with EPS potentially seeing out 2022 up by 25%. This is due to both easier comps and the addition of “modest incremental momentum” from the Super App.In September, the company launched the first version of the Super App, which mixes services such as BNPL and crypto with “new products” including high-yield savings, in-app shopping tools, deals, rewards and bill pay. Over the coming months, the app’s features will be further enhanced with the introduction of additional investment capabilities, new online and in-store shopping processes, and “better PYPL branded capabilities.” The company also recently announced it is looking at potentially adding its own stablecoin.Keane reiterated a Buy rating while sticking to a $260 price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"MA":0.9,"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630814858,"gmtCreate":1642773173170,"gmtModify":1642773183207,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$General Motors(GM)$</a>wow","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$General Motors(GM)$</a>wow","text":"$General Motors(GM)$wow","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac67d31e23349a2541203e9702fa02f","width":"1080","height":"3501"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630814858","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630086895,"gmtCreate":1642638081019,"gmtModify":1642638081327,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630086895","repostId":"694234662","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":694234662,"gmtCreate":1641984553381,"gmtModify":1642033975053,"author":{"id":"3582524673862453","authorId":"3582524673862453","name":"库巴财经","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582524673862453","idStr":"3582524673862453"},"themes":[],"title":"经济学家：解决低生育的办法找到了，让75后-85后多生孩子！","htmlText":"这两天，国内知名经济学家任泽平发布了一个中国生育报告标题十分引人注目，“解决低生育的办法找到了”！他的观点是每年用2万亿的钱，用10年时间多生5000万个孩子。带着好奇我也看了这篇报告，跟大家讨论几个有意思的地方。第一个就是任泽平提到的，用2万亿解决低生育问题。说实话生孩子这件事今年热度很高，这经济学家喊出用2万亿去生孩子后，热度就更高了。大家想过没有，这2万亿从何而来？这可是凭空印出来的，也就是超发2万亿货币。现在老百姓可不傻，一听说货币超发就知道不是好事。再说了，真把钱发出去，钱到人家手里了，怎么花你管的住吗？能不能提高生育率暂且不谈，提高物价，房价，那肯定的妥妥的。而且就算这2万亿专款专用了，听起来挺多，但是10年多生5000万，一年就是500万，再加上每年正常出生的1000万新生儿，一共就是1500万，那平摊到没个人身上差不多人均13万。扪心自问现在养一个孩子，看病，教育，兴趣爱好，以及后续的就业，买房，结婚，13万够吗？我觉得是不够的。第二个有趣的观点是，任泽平说一定要抓住75后-85后还能生的时间点，让他们想办法多生点。看到这个我都懵逼了。但凡有点投资经验的都知道股市里单靠存量资金，是不可能推动大牛市产生的。你不想办法吸引增量资金入市，却想着让本就不富裕的散户们上杠杆，这能行吗？这经济学家就不长个脑子？最后一个，任泽平坦言别指望90后生孩子，他们连婚都不想结。这倒是大实话，现在的年轻人，宁可自己过也不结婚。你问他们老了咋整，他们只会告诉你：养老院。这是观念问题，可不仅仅是钱的问题。70后那一代有钱吗？但他们是把传宗接代刻在脑子里的。别说三胎，六胎人家也愿意生。但现在不是了，生活压力这么大，没人愿意去生孩子。所以是要解决低生育的问题，是要靠增量资金的（90后，00后），不能光拿一茬韭菜来回割。只有把现在生活压力大的问题解决了，再谈生孩子的事。","listText":"这两天，国内知名经济学家任泽平发布了一个中国生育报告标题十分引人注目，“解决低生育的办法找到了”！他的观点是每年用2万亿的钱，用10年时间多生5000万个孩子。带着好奇我也看了这篇报告，跟大家讨论几个有意思的地方。第一个就是任泽平提到的，用2万亿解决低生育问题。说实话生孩子这件事今年热度很高，这经济学家喊出用2万亿去生孩子后，热度就更高了。大家想过没有，这2万亿从何而来？这可是凭空印出来的，也就是超发2万亿货币。现在老百姓可不傻，一听说货币超发就知道不是好事。再说了，真把钱发出去，钱到人家手里了，怎么花你管的住吗？能不能提高生育率暂且不谈，提高物价，房价，那肯定的妥妥的。而且就算这2万亿专款专用了，听起来挺多，但是10年多生5000万，一年就是500万，再加上每年正常出生的1000万新生儿，一共就是1500万，那平摊到没个人身上差不多人均13万。扪心自问现在养一个孩子，看病，教育，兴趣爱好，以及后续的就业，买房，结婚，13万够吗？我觉得是不够的。第二个有趣的观点是，任泽平说一定要抓住75后-85后还能生的时间点，让他们想办法多生点。看到这个我都懵逼了。但凡有点投资经验的都知道股市里单靠存量资金，是不可能推动大牛市产生的。你不想办法吸引增量资金入市，却想着让本就不富裕的散户们上杠杆，这能行吗？这经济学家就不长个脑子？最后一个，任泽平坦言别指望90后生孩子，他们连婚都不想结。这倒是大实话，现在的年轻人，宁可自己过也不结婚。你问他们老了咋整，他们只会告诉你：养老院。这是观念问题，可不仅仅是钱的问题。70后那一代有钱吗？但他们是把传宗接代刻在脑子里的。别说三胎，六胎人家也愿意生。但现在不是了，生活压力这么大，没人愿意去生孩子。所以是要解决低生育的问题，是要靠增量资金的（90后，00后），不能光拿一茬韭菜来回割。只有把现在生活压力大的问题解决了，再谈生孩子的事。","text":"这两天，国内知名经济学家任泽平发布了一个中国生育报告标题十分引人注目，“解决低生育的办法找到了”！他的观点是每年用2万亿的钱，用10年时间多生5000万个孩子。带着好奇我也看了这篇报告，跟大家讨论几个有意思的地方。第一个就是任泽平提到的，用2万亿解决低生育问题。说实话生孩子这件事今年热度很高，这经济学家喊出用2万亿去生孩子后，热度就更高了。大家想过没有，这2万亿从何而来？这可是凭空印出来的，也就是超发2万亿货币。现在老百姓可不傻，一听说货币超发就知道不是好事。再说了，真把钱发出去，钱到人家手里了，怎么花你管的住吗？能不能提高生育率暂且不谈，提高物价，房价，那肯定的妥妥的。而且就算这2万亿专款专用了，听起来挺多，但是10年多生5000万，一年就是500万，再加上每年正常出生的1000万新生儿，一共就是1500万，那平摊到没个人身上差不多人均13万。扪心自问现在养一个孩子，看病，教育，兴趣爱好，以及后续的就业，买房，结婚，13万够吗？我觉得是不够的。第二个有趣的观点是，任泽平说一定要抓住75后-85后还能生的时间点，让他们想办法多生点。看到这个我都懵逼了。但凡有点投资经验的都知道股市里单靠存量资金，是不可能推动大牛市产生的。你不想办法吸引增量资金入市，却想着让本就不富裕的散户们上杠杆，这能行吗？这经济学家就不长个脑子？最后一个，任泽平坦言别指望90后生孩子，他们连婚都不想结。这倒是大实话，现在的年轻人，宁可自己过也不结婚。你问他们老了咋整，他们只会告诉你：养老院。这是观念问题，可不仅仅是钱的问题。70后那一代有钱吗？但他们是把传宗接代刻在脑子里的。别说三胎，六胎人家也愿意生。但现在不是了，生活压力这么大，没人愿意去生孩子。所以是要解决低生育的问题，是要靠增量资金的（90后，00后），不能光拿一茬韭菜来回割。只有把现在生活压力大的问题解决了，再谈生孩子的事。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694234662","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":821985976,"gmtCreate":1633686762164,"gmtModify":1633686762277,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821985976","repostId":"1135993400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135993400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633675137,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135993400?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-08 14:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135993400","media":"zerohedge","summary":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the mo","content":"<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让我们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。总而言之，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率的反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来了压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但餐厅开放餐桌的座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>September Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSeptember Payrolls Preview: It Will Be A Beat, The Question Is How Big<blockquote>9月就业预览：这将是一个节拍，问题是有多大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-08 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.</p><p><blockquote>在强劲的首次申请失业救济报告和稳健的ADP私人就业数据之后，所有人的目光都转向了本周和本月最重要的经济数据点，即美国东部时间周五上午830点发布的周五非农就业报告，市场普遍预计非农就业报告将达到50万份——是上个月令人失望的23.5万份的两倍多——失业率降至5.1%，平均时薪增加至4.6%。与上个月不同的是，当我们正确预测8月份就业人数将大幅下降时，这次我们同意明天的报告将是一个节拍，唯一的问题是幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Here is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:</p><p><blockquote>以下是明天的快照：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Total Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K</li>  <li>Private Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K</li>  <li>Unemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%</li>  <li>Labor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%</li>  <li>Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%</li>  <li>Average Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7</li> </ul> As&nbsp;Newsquawk&nbsp;writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>总就业人数：50万，最后23.5万</li><li>私人就业人数：45万，最新24.3万</li><li>失业率：5.1%，去年5.2%</li><li>劳动参与率：61.8%，上次61.7%</li><li>平均时薪同比：4.6%，过去4.3%</li><li>平均每周工作时间：34.7，最后34.7</li></ul>正如Newsquawk在其NFP预览中所写，9月份的就业数据是美联储11月3日政策会议之前的最后一份数据，将在美联储预期宣布缩减规模的背景下进行，在这种背景下，一份令人满意的报告可能足以让FOMC批准11月份宣布缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong,&nbsp;<b>and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"</b>As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家比正常情况更加乐观，预计9月份非农就业人数增加60万，高于市场普遍预期的+50万，他们指出“劳动力需求仍然非常强劲，<b>我们相信，9月5日全国范围内强化失业救济金到期，提振了有效劳动力供应和就业增长——就像7月和8月提前结束联邦救济金的州所做的那样。”</b>因此，高盛预计明天的人数将增加20万，10月份的增幅更大。该银行还认为，学校的重新开放促进了9月份就业增长约15万人。尽管有这些有利因素，但大数据就业信号好坏参半，餐饮活动仅小幅反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Labor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.</p><p><blockquote>本月劳动力市场指标一直具有建设性：ADP的就业数据出人意料地上升，尽管分析师继续指出，官方数据与ADP数据之间的直接关系很脆弱，尽管过去三份报告的差距低于10万。在8月和9月就业数据调查期间，首次申请失业救济人数和持续申请失业救济人数有所回落，尽管分析师指出，最近发布的数据显示申请失业救济人数上升可能会给前景蒙上阴影。ISM商业调查显示本月就业增长，制造业就业再次升至增长区域，但服务业招聘本月略有降温，但仍保持扩张；调查评论继续暗示劳动力市场紧张。美国劳工统计局将于10月8日13:30 BST/08：30EDT发布9月就业形势报告。</blockquote></p><p> <b>POLICY</b>: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.</p><p><blockquote><b>政策</b>：鉴于美联储官员实际上已经确认，除非就业数据崩溃，否则美联储将在11月3日的会议上宣布缩减资产购买规模，9月份就业报告可能会降低对交易状况的相关性。因此，交易风险可能偏向下行，而不是上行，就业人数大幅下降可能会给美联储宣布缩减规模带来障碍。此外，值得认识到华盛顿提高债务上限的努力进展如何；到目前为止，官员们尚未达成协议，正在制定权宜之计立法，以允许资金进入12月；一些分析师暗示，面对潜在的违约风险，美联储可能不愿收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PAYROLLS:</b>The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).<b>Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资单：</b>市场普遍预计9月份美国经济将增加50万非农就业人数（上一篇。23.5万），这将低于三个月和六个月的平均增长率，尽管与12个月的平均增长率一致（3个月的平均增长率为75万/月，6个月的平均增长率为65.3万/月，12个月的平均增长率为50.3万/月——这至少在技术上表明最近几个月的就业增长率有所改善）。<b>汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，约有533万美国人仍处于失业状态。</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>MEASURES OF SLACK:</b>The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>松弛措施：</b>失业率预计为5.1%（此前为5.2%）；劳动力参与率此前为61.7%，而疫情前为63.2%；U6衡量就业不足的指标此前为8.8%，而疫情前为7.0%；就业与人口比率之前为58.5%，而疫情之前为61.1%。这些宽松指标可能会让我们更深入地了解美联储官员如何判断劳动力市场的进展，许多人最近几个月指出，他们正在密切关注就业不足率、参与率和就业人口比率，以便更好地应对经济中仍然存在的宽松程度。这些数据越接近大流行前的水平，分析师就会受到鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> <b>EARNINGS:</b>Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>平均时薪预计为+0.4%M/M（前值为+0.6%）；平均时薪预计同比+4.6%（前值+4.3%）；平均每周工作时间预计为34.7小时（之前为34.7小时）。汇总2020年3月以来的非农就业数据，相对于大流行前的水平，仍有约533万美国人失业。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ADP:</b>The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure &amp; Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>ADP：</b>ADP全国就业报告显示，9月份美国经济新增就业岗位56.8万个，高于预期的42.8万个，好于之前的34万个（从最初报告的37.4万个下调）。ADP本身表示，尽管就业岗位新增速度较第二季度的74.8万个明显放缓，但劳动力市场复苏仍在继续取得进展。报告还指出，休闲和酒店业仍然是经济复苏的最大受益者之一，但表示招聘仍受到疫情轨迹的严重影响，尤其是对小企业而言。ADP认为，随着疫情形势的持续改善，当前的招聘瓶颈可能会消失，这可能为未来几个月的就业增长奠定基础。在数据方法方面，分析师继续指出，ADP的模型包含了许多之前的官方就业数据、其他宏观经济变量以及来自其自己的就业平台的数据；Pantheon Macroeconomics表示：“由于德尔塔变异毒株对服务业的打击，8月份就业人数疲软，这种疲软可能会限制ADP数据。”“因此，超出共识表明ADP模型的其他输入比我们预期的要强，但没有公布任何细节，因此我们不知道超出是模型驱动的还是由于就业数据更强劲在ADP的客户。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:</b>Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.</p><p><blockquote><b>首次申请失业救济人数：</b>与BLS就业报告调查窗口一致的当周首次申请失业救济人数约为35.1万人，与8月份就业数据调查窗口的34.9万人相比变化不大，分析师表示，季节性因素在提振每周数据方面发挥了作用，而飓风艾达可能会产生一些挥之不去的影响；9月份调查期间相应的持续申领数据已降至280.2万人，而8月份调查期间为290.8万人。总体而言，数据继续显示下降趋势，尽管最近几周初请失业金人数再次回升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BUSINESS SURVEYS</b>: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>商业调查</b>：9月份服务业和制造业ISM报告显示出不同的趋势，服务业就业分项指数从53.7小幅放缓至53.0，表明增长但速度放缓，而制造业就业分项指数则回升至扩张区域，从之前的49.0升至50.2。在制造业方面，ISM表示，企业仍在努力实现劳资计划，但指出与前几个月相比出现了一些适度的进展迹象：“不到5%的评论指出就业方面有所改善，而8月份没有任何评论”它表示，“绝大多数小组成员表示他们的公司正在招聘或试图招聘”，其中约85%的回复是关于寻求额外人员，而近一半的受访者表示难以填补职位，比8月份有所增加。ISM表示：“有关离职率和退休的评论频率不断增加，延续了8月份开始的趋势。”与此同时，服务业就业活动连续第三个月上升；受访者指出，员工纷纷涌向薪酬更高的工作，并且缺乏替代这些员工的渠道，而其他受访者则谈到各个层面都存在劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT</b>:</p><p><blockquote><b>主张一份好于预期的报告</b>：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>End of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts</b>. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.<b>Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.</b>Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8e5900cf66c76d4b64055f84e58048\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>联邦强化失业救济金结束</b>一些州联邦福利的到期提振了夏季的劳动力供应和就业率，所有剩余的此类计划都于9月5日到期。7月和8月的数据显示，从6月到8月，失去300美元补充付款的工人的找工作概率累计增加了6个百分点，失去所有福利的工人的找工作概率增加了12个百分点。<b>9月5日失去部分或全部福利的600万工人中，一些人在9月18日之前找到了工作——及时计入明天的数据。</b>高盛假设这一渠道将促进就业增长+20万，在随后的报告中会有更大的增长（到年底累计+130万）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>School reopening</b>. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff3e69723b40e0d372ec2bebecb38b1f\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>学校重新开学</b>.最大的100个学区都开放了面对面学习，促进了许多以前休假的教师和辅助人员的回归。虽然就业水平完全正常化将创造60万个工作岗位（mom sa，见下图左图），但由于混合教学模式，一些看门人和辅助人员没有返回，该部门的职位空缺仅比危机前水平高出20万个（见右图）。与此相关的是，BLS的季节性因素已经嵌入了夏季裁员中通常重新雇用教育工作者的情况，因此，如果返回工作岗位的看门人比典型的9月份少，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将减少经季节性调整的就业增长。总而言之，假设明天的报告中学校重新开放将增加大约15万人。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Job availability</b>. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.</li>  <li><b>ADP.</b>Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.</li> </ul> <b>ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>工作可用性</b>世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）的劳动力差异——表示工作岗位充足的受访者与表示工作岗位难以获得的受访者之间的差异——从44.4%小幅降至42.5%，仍处于较高水平。此外，7月份JOLTS职位空缺增加了74.9万个，创下1090万个的新高。</li><li><b>ADP.</b>ADP报告中的私营部门就业人数在9月份增加了56.8万人，高于普遍预期的43万人，这意味着基础ADP样本的强劲增长。此外，学校通常不使用ADP工资软件，认为在官方工资措施中，学校重新开放会带来更大的收益。</li></ul><b>主张报告弱于预期：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Delta variant.</b>Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.</li>  <li><b>Employer surveys</b>. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.</li> </ul> <b>NEUTRAL FACTORS:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>德尔塔变异毒株.</b>8月份，covid感染率的反弹给服务消费和劳动力市场带来了压力。尽管美国病例数在9月初开始下降，但餐厅开放餐桌的座位仅小幅反弹。休闲和酒店业就业人数在9月份有所增加，但可能不会像6月和7月那样以每月约40万的速度增长。</li><li><b>雇主调查</b>我们的商业调查的就业部分持平或下降，而我们和共识预测就业增长将会回升。高盛服务业调查就业跟踪指数维持在54.5不变，制造业调查就业跟踪指数下降0.4个百分点至57.8。高盛分析师指数(GSAI)下降0.8%至68.5，但就业指数上涨1.9%至71.9。</li></ul><b>中性因素：</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Big Data.</b>High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.</li>  <li><b>Seasonality.</b>The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).</li>  <li><b>Jobless claims.</b>Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.</li>  <li><b>Job cuts.</b>Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据。</b>在8月和9月的调查周期间，劳动力市场的高频数据好坏参半，对就业增长的基本速度几乎没有提供指导。跟踪的五项指标中有三项表明涨幅等于或高于共识（Census Small Business Pulse+0.5百万，ADP+0.6百万，Google mobility+200百万），但Homebase数据是下行的异常值。从表面上看，这将表明就业人数大幅下降。人口普查家庭脉搏（-60万）也相当弱，尽管令人鼓舞，但它也表明，随着学校重新开放，与儿童保育相关的劳动力供应阻力大幅下降。</li><li><b>季节性。</b>9月份的季节性障碍相对较低：BLS调整因素通常假设私人就业人数（不包括公立学校）下降60-70万，而7月和8月平均下降约10万。持续的劳动力短缺鼓励企业在夏末减少裁员。部分抵消了这一顺风，9月份的季节性因素可能因危机而发生了不利的演变——特别是通过适应去年9月重新开放驱动的就业激增（私人就业人数+93.2万环比sa）。</li><li><b>申请失业救济。</b>尽管个人过渡或试图过渡到州计划，但9月份首次申请失业救济人数有所下降，平均每周为33.9万人，而8月份为37.8万人。在包括紧急福利在内的所有员工计划中，持续索赔大幅下降（-330万），但也是出于非经济原因（联邦增强计划到期）。从一个调查周到另一个调查周，常规州项目的持续申请减少了10.6万。</li><li><b>裁员。</b>Challenger、Gray&amp;Christmas报告的宣布裁员人数在前两个月下降14%后，9月份环比反弹11%（SA by GS）。尽管如此，根据这一指标，裁员仍接近30年来的最低点（1993年）。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-payrolls-preview-it-will-be-beat-question-how-big","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135993400","content_text":"After a strong initial claims report and a solid ADP private payrolls print, all eyes turn to the most important economic data point of the week, and the month, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report due at 830am ET on Friday, where consensus expects a 500K print- more than double last month's disappointing 235K print - as well as a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and an increase in average hourly earnings to 4.6%. And unlike last month, when wecorrectly predicted the big miss in August payrolls, this time we agree that tomorrow's report will be a beat, the only question is how big.\nHere is a snapshot of what to expect tomorrow:\n\nTotal Payrolls: 500K, Last 235K\nPrivate Payrolls: 450K, Last 243K\nUnemployment Rate: 5.1%, Last 5.2%\nLabor force participation rate: 61.8%, Last 61.7%\nAverage Hourly Earnings Y/Y: 4.6%, Last 4.3%\nAverage Weekly Hours: 34.7, Last 34.7\n\nAs Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, September’s jobs data, the last before the Fed’s November 3rd policy meeting, will be framed in the context of the central bank’s expected taper announcement, where a merely satisfactory report would likely to be enough for the FOMC to greenlight a November announcement to scale-back its USD 120BN/month asset purchases.\nGoldman economists are more bullish than normal, and estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 600k in September, above consensus of +500k, and they note that \"labor demand remains very strong, and we believe the nationwide expiration of enhanced unemployment beneﬁts on September 5 boosted effective labor supply and job growth—as it did in July and August in states that ended federal beneﬁts early.\"As a result, Goldman is assuming a 200k boost in tomorrow’s numbers and a larger boost in October. The bank also believes the reopening of schools contributed to September job growth, by around 150k. Despite these tailwinds, Big Data employment signals were mixed, and dining activity rebounded only marginally.\nLabor market proxies have been constructive for the month: ADP’s gauge of payrolls surprised to the upside, although analysts continue to note that the direct relationship between the official data and the ADP’s gauge is tenuous, despite the gap being under 100k over the last three reports. The number of initial jobless claims and continuing claims has eased back between the survey periods of the August and September jobs data, although analysts note that more recent releases have shown an uptick in claims potentially clouding the outlook. The ISM business surveys have signaled employment growth in the month, with manufacturing employment rising into growth territory again, but services sector hiring cooled a little in the month, but remains expansionary; survey commentary continues to allude to a tight labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September employment situation report at 13:30BST/08:30EDT on October 8th.\nPOLICY: The September jobs report might have reduced relevance on trading conditions given that Fed officials have effectively confirmed that, barring a collapse in the jobs data, it is on course to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November 3rd meeting. Accordingly, trading risks may be skewed to the downside, rather than to the upside, where a significant payrolls miss may present obstacles to the Fed announcing its taper. Additionally, it is worth being cognizant of how efforts in Washington to raise the debt ceiling are progressing; as yet, officials have not struck a deal, and are in the process of enacting stop gap legislation to allow funding into December; some analysts suggest that the Fed may be reticent to tighten policy in the face of potential default risks.\nPAYROLLS:The consensus looks for 500k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (prev. 235k), which would be a cooler rate of growth than the three- and six-month average rate, though in line with the 12-month average (3-month average is 750k/month, the six-month average is 653k/month, and the 12-month average is 503k/month – that technically at least suggests an improving rate of payrolls growth in recent months).Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nMEASURES OF SLACK:The Unemployment Rate is expected at 5.1% (prev. 5.2%); Labour Force Participation previously at 61.7% vs 63.2% pre-pandemic; U6 measure of underemployment was previously at 8.8% vs 7.0% prepandemic; Employment-population ratio was previously 58.5% vs 61.1% pre-pandemic. These measures of slack are likely to provide more insight into how Fed officials are judging labour market progress, with many in recent months noting that they are closely watching the Underemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and the Employment-Population Ratio for a better handle on the level of slack that remains in the economy. Analysts would be encouraged the closer these get to pre-pandemic levels.\nEARNINGS:Average Hourly Earnings expected at +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.6%); Average Hourly Earnings expected at +4. 6% Y/Y (prev. +4.3%); Average Workweek Hours expected at 34.7hrs (prev. 34.7hrs). Aggregating the nonfarm payrolls data since March 2020, around 5.33mln Americans still remain out of work relative to pre-pandemic levels.\nADP:The ADP National Employment Report showed 568k jobs added to the US economy in September, topping expectations for 428k, and a better pace than the prior 340k (revised down from 374k initially reported). ADP itself said that the labor market recovery continued to make progress despite the marked slowdown in the rate of job additions from the 748k pace seen in Q2. It also noted that Leisure & Hospitality remained one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, though said that hiring was still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. ADP thinks that the current bottlenecks in hiring will likely fade as the pandemic situation continues to improve, and that could set the stage for solid job gains in the months ahead. On the data methodology, analysts continue to note that ADP's model incorporates much of the prior official payrolls data, other macroeconomic variables, as well as data from its own payrolls platform; \"Payrolls were soft in August, thanks to the hit to the services sector from the Delta variant, and that weakness likely constrained ADP data,\" Pantheon Macroeconomics said. \"The overshoot to consensus, therefore, suggests that the other inputs to ADP’s model were stronger than we expected, but none of the details are published, so we don’t know if the overshoot was model-driven or due to stronger employment data at ADP’s clients.\"\nINITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS:Initial jobless claims data for the week that coincides with the BLS jobs report survey window saw claims at around 351k – little changed from the 349k for the August jobs data survey window – where analysts said seasonal factors played a role in boosting the weekly data, while there may have been some lingering Hurricane Ida effects; the corresponding continuing claims data has fallen to 2.802mln in the September survey period vs 2.908mln in the August survey period. In aggregate, the data continues to point to declining trend, although in recent weeks the level of jobless claims has been picking up again.\nBUSINESS SURVEYS: The Services and Manufacturing ISM reports showed divergent trends in September, with the service sector employment sub-index easing a little to 53.0 from 53.7, signalling growth but at a slower rate, while the manufacturing employment sub-index rose back into expansionary territory, printing 50.2 from 49.0 prior. On the manufacturing sector, ISM said companies were still struggling to meet labour-management plans, but noted some modest signs of progress compared to previous months: \"Less than 5% of comments noted improvements regarding employment, compared to none in August,\" it said, \"an overwhelming majority of panelists indicate their companies are hiring or attempting to hire,\" where around 85% of responses were about seeking additional staffing, while nearly half of the respondents expressed difficulty in filling positions, an increase from August. \"The increasing frequency of comments on turnover rates and retirements continued a trend that began in August,\" ISM said. Meanwhile, in the services sector, employment activity rose for a third straight month; respondents noted that employees were flocking to better-paying jobs and there was a lack of pipeline to replace these staff, while other respondents talked of labor shortages being experienced at all levels.\nARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nEnd of federal enhanced unemployment beneﬁts. The expiration of federal beneﬁts in some states boosted labor supply and job-ﬁnding rates over the summer, and all remaining such programs expired on September 5. The July and August indicated a cumulative 6pp boost to job-ﬁnding probabilities from June to August for workers losing $300 top-up payments and a 12pp boost for workers losing all beneﬁts.Some of the 6mn workers who lost some or all beneﬁts on September 5 got a job by September 18—in time to be counted in tomorrow’s data.Goldman assumes a +200k boost to job growth from this channel, with a larger increase in subsequent reports (+1.3mn cumulatively by year end).\n\n\n\nSchool reopening. The largest 100 school districts are all open for in-person learning, catalyzing the return of many previously furloughed teachers and support staff. While full normalization of employment levels would contribute 600k jobs (mom sa, see left panel of the chart below), some janitors and support staff did not return due to hybrid teaching models, and job openings in the sector are only 200k above the pre-crisis level (see right panel). Relatedly, the BLS’s seasonal factors already embed the usual rehiring of education workers on summer layoff, so if fewer janitors returned to work than in a typical September, this would reduce seasonally adjusted job growth, other things equal. Taken together, assume a roughly 150k boost from the reopening of schools in tomorrow’s report.\n\n\n\nJob availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hardto get - edged down to 42.5 from 44.4, still an elevated level. Additionally, JOLTS job openings increased by 749k in July to a new record high of 10.9mn.\nADP.Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 568k in September, above consensus expectations for a 430k gain, implying strong growth in the underlying ADP sample. Additionally, schools generally do not use ADP payroll software, arguing for a larger gain from school reopening in the official payroll measure.\n\nARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:\n\nDelta variant.Rebounding covid infection rates weighed on services consumption and the labor market in August. And while US case counts began to decline in early September, restaurant seatings on Open Table rebounded only marginally. leisure and hospitality employment rose in September, but probably not at the ~400k monthly pace of June and July.\nEmployer surveys. The employment components of our business surveys were flat to down, whereas we and consensus forecast a pickup in job growth. Goldman's services survey employment tracker remained unchanged at 54.5 and the manufacturing survey employment tracker declined 0.4pt to 57.8. And while the Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) decreased 0.8% to 68.5, the employment component rose1.9% to 71.9.\n\nNEUTRAL FACTORS:\n\nBig Data.High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed between the August and September survey weeks, on net providing little guidance about the underlying pace of job growth. Three of the five measures tracked indicate an at-or-above-consensus gain (Census Small Business Pulse +0.5mn, ADP +0.6mn,Google mobility +2mn), but the Homebase data was an outlier to the downside. At face value, it would indicate a large outright decline in payrolls. The Census Household Pulse (-0.6mn) was also quite weak, though encouragingly, it also indicated a large drop in childcare-related labor supply headwinds as schools reopened.\nSeasonality.The September seasonal hurdle is relatively low: the BLS adjustment factors generally assume a 600-700k decline in private payrolls (which exclude public schools), compared to around -100k on average in July and August. Continued labor shortages encouraged firms to lay off fewer workers at the end of summer. Partially offsetting this tailwind, the September seasonal factors may have evolved unfavorably due to the crisis—specifically by fitting to last September’s reopening-driven job surge (private payrolls +932k mom sa).\nJobless claims.Initial jobless claims fell during the September payroll month, averaging 339k per week vs. 378k in August despite a boost from individuals transitioning or attempting to transition to state programs. Across all employee programs including emergency benefits, continuing claims fell dramatically (-3.3mn)–but again for non-economic reasons (federal enhanced programs expired). Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 106k from survey week to survey week.\nJob cuts.Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas rebounded 11% month-over-month in September after decreasing by 14% over the prior two months (SA by GS). Nonetheless, layoffs remain near the three-decade low on this measure (in 1993).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886875706,"gmtCreate":1631582981205,"gmtModify":1631884170904,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886875706","repostId":"2167535139","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":858065111,"gmtCreate":1634954210001,"gmtModify":1634954319523,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858065111","repostId":"1166213725","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166213725","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634948473,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166213725?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Closed Above $900 for First Time. What Could Come Next.<blockquote>特斯拉股价首次收于900美元以上。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166213725","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla stock hit a new all-time high in Friday trading, and closed at a record. The stock’s recent run has been incredible. How high can it go?Tesla  stock closed at $909.68, up about 1.8%. The S&P 500 dropped about 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 0.2%.Shares of the electric-vehicle giant have been boosted by strong deliveries and earnings. Shares also got a boost Friday from a credit upgrade at S&P. Tesla debt is now BB+ rated, one notch below investment grade.Tesla stoc","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;stock hit a new all-time high in Friday trading, and closed at a record. The stock’s recent run has been incredible. How high can it go?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周五交易中创下历史新高，收盘价创历史新高。该股最近的走势令人难以置信。能涨到多高？</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed at $909.68, up about 1.8%. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropped about 0.1%, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;added about 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收于909.68美元，上涨约1.8%。标准普尔500指数下跌约0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the electric-vehicle giant have been boosted by strong deliveries and earnings. Shares also got a boost Friday from a credit upgrade at S&amp;P. Tesla debt is now BB+ rated, one notch below investment grade.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的交付量和盈利提振了这家电动汽车巨头的股价。周五，标准普尔的信用升级也提振了股价。特斯拉债务目前评级为BB+，比投资级低一级。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock’s new 52-week intraday high is $910 on the nose. The old high-water mark of $900.40 was set on Jan. 25, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On Thursday, Tesla closed at a record for the first time since Jan. 26.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价创52周盘中新高910美元。根据道琼斯市场数据，900.40美元的旧高水位是在1月25日创下的。周四，特斯拉自1月26日以来首次收于创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p> Shares are up about 40% over the past three months, pushing the market cap to roughly $910 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.)</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，股价上涨了约40%，市值达到约9100亿美元。（特斯拉拥有约10亿股已发行股票，这使得计算变得很容易。）</blockquote></p><p> Bulls, naturally, see more gains ahead. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his bull-case Tesla stock price target to $1,500 from $1,300 after the company reported better-than-expected earnings on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>多头自然会看到未来会有更多收益。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives将牛市特斯拉股价目标从1300美元上调至1500美元，此前该公司周三公布了好于预期的财报。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla is rising because earnings revisions are soaring,” points out Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund. Analyst estimates for Tesla’s 2022 earnings have risen to about $8 a share from $6 over the past few weeks. “Rising estimates drove Tesla to the moon in 2020. They will drive Tesla to $1,000-plus in 2022,” Black says.</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在上涨，因为盈利修正正在飙升，”未来基金主动交易所交易基金管理合伙人Gary Black指出。过去几周，分析师对特斯拉2022年每股收益的预期已从每股6美元升至约8美元。“不断上涨的估值推动特斯拉在2020年登上了月球。它们将推动特斯拉在2022年达到1,000美元以上，”Black说。</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla stock Buy, and Tesla is the largest position in Black’s fund.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，特斯拉是Black基金的最大持仓。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, there are still Tesla bears out there who believe the stock is overvalued. The bottom third of analyst price targets averages about $425, less than half of Friday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>是的，仍然有看空特斯拉的人认为该股被高估了。分析师目标价的底部三分之一平均约为425美元，不到周五收盘价的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Bears expect the sky-high valuation to give investors pause eventually. Stocks don’t usually fall just because investors, collectively, wake up one morning and feel differently about valuation. Something has to happen. The overall market could tumble, or the business could trip up. Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow to 1.3 million units in 2022 from about 890,000 units in 2021. Any hiccup to growth would be a negative catalyst for shares.</p><p><blockquote>看空者预计天价估值最终会让投资者犹豫不决。股票通常不会因为投资者集体某天早上醒来对估值有不同的感觉而下跌。总得有事发生。整体市场可能会暴跌，或者企业可能会陷入困境。分析师预计，特斯拉的交付量将从2021年的约89万辆增长到2022年的130万辆。增长的任何问题都将成为股市的负面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Whether the stock rises or falls in the short run is anyone’s guess. For now, though, the momentum belongs to Tesla bulls.</p><p><blockquote>该股短期内是上涨还是下跌，谁也说不准。不过，就目前而言，势头属于特斯拉多头。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Closed Above $900 for First Time. What Could Come Next.<blockquote>特斯拉股价首次收于900美元以上。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Closed Above $900 for First Time. What Could Come Next.<blockquote>特斯拉股价首次收于900美元以上。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;stock hit a new all-time high in Friday trading, and closed at a record. The stock’s recent run has been incredible. How high can it go?</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在周五交易中创下历史新高，收盘价创历史新高。该股最近的走势令人难以置信。能涨到多高？</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed at $909.68, up about 1.8%. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropped about 0.1%, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;added about 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）股价收于909.68美元，上涨约1.8%。标准普尔500指数下跌约0.1%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the electric-vehicle giant have been boosted by strong deliveries and earnings. Shares also got a boost Friday from a credit upgrade at S&amp;P. Tesla debt is now BB+ rated, one notch below investment grade.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的交付量和盈利提振了这家电动汽车巨头的股价。周五，标准普尔的信用升级也提振了股价。特斯拉债务目前评级为BB+，比投资级低一级。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock’s new 52-week intraday high is $910 on the nose. The old high-water mark of $900.40 was set on Jan. 25, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On Thursday, Tesla closed at a record for the first time since Jan. 26.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价创52周盘中新高910美元。根据道琼斯市场数据，900.40美元的旧高水位是在1月25日创下的。周四，特斯拉自1月26日以来首次收于创纪录水平。</blockquote></p><p> Shares are up about 40% over the past three months, pushing the market cap to roughly $910 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.)</p><p><blockquote>过去三个月，股价上涨了约40%，市值达到约9100亿美元。（特斯拉拥有约10亿股已发行股票，这使得计算变得很容易。）</blockquote></p><p> Bulls, naturally, see more gains ahead. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his bull-case Tesla stock price target to $1,500 from $1,300 after the company reported better-than-expected earnings on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>多头自然会看到未来会有更多收益。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives将牛市特斯拉股价目标从1300美元上调至1500美元，此前该公司周三公布了好于预期的财报。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla is rising because earnings revisions are soaring,” points out Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund. Analyst estimates for Tesla’s 2022 earnings have risen to about $8 a share from $6 over the past few weeks. “Rising estimates drove Tesla to the moon in 2020. They will drive Tesla to $1,000-plus in 2022,” Black says.</p><p><blockquote>“特斯拉正在上涨，因为盈利修正正在飙升，”未来基金主动交易所交易基金管理合伙人Gary Black指出。过去几周，分析师对特斯拉2022年每股收益的预期已从每股6美元升至约8美元。“不断上涨的估值推动特斯拉在2020年登上了月球。它们将推动特斯拉在2022年达到1,000美元以上，”Black说。</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla stock Buy, and Tesla is the largest position in Black’s fund.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，特斯拉是Black基金的最大持仓。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, there are still Tesla bears out there who believe the stock is overvalued. The bottom third of analyst price targets averages about $425, less than half of Friday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>是的，仍然有看空特斯拉的人认为该股被高估了。分析师目标价的底部三分之一平均约为425美元，不到周五收盘价的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Bears expect the sky-high valuation to give investors pause eventually. Stocks don’t usually fall just because investors, collectively, wake up one morning and feel differently about valuation. Something has to happen. The overall market could tumble, or the business could trip up. Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow to 1.3 million units in 2022 from about 890,000 units in 2021. Any hiccup to growth would be a negative catalyst for shares.</p><p><blockquote>看空者预计天价估值最终会让投资者犹豫不决。股票通常不会因为投资者集体某天早上醒来对估值有不同的感觉而下跌。总得有事发生。整体市场可能会暴跌，或者企业可能会陷入困境。分析师预计，特斯拉的交付量将从2021年的约89万辆增长到2022年的130万辆。增长的任何问题都将成为股市的负面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> Whether the stock rises or falls in the short run is anyone’s guess. For now, though, the momentum belongs to Tesla bulls.</p><p><blockquote>该股短期内是上涨还是下跌，谁也说不准。不过，就目前而言，势头属于特斯拉多头。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-record-high-51634913773?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-record-high-51634913773?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166213725","content_text":"Tesla stock hit a new all-time high in Friday trading, and closed at a record. The stock’s recent run has been incredible. How high can it go?\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) stock closed at $909.68, up about 1.8%. The S&P 500 dropped about 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 0.2%.\nShares of the electric-vehicle giant have been boosted by strong deliveries and earnings. Shares also got a boost Friday from a credit upgrade at S&P. Tesla debt is now BB+ rated, one notch below investment grade.\nTesla stock’s new 52-week intraday high is $910 on the nose. The old high-water mark of $900.40 was set on Jan. 25, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On Thursday, Tesla closed at a record for the first time since Jan. 26.\nShares are up about 40% over the past three months, pushing the market cap to roughly $910 billion. (Tesla has about 1 billion shares outstanding, making the math easy.)\nBulls, naturally, see more gains ahead. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his bull-case Tesla stock price target to $1,500 from $1,300 after the company reported better-than-expected earnings on Wednesday.\n“Tesla is rising because earnings revisions are soaring,” points out Gary Black, managing partner of the Future Fund Active exchange-traded fund. Analyst estimates for Tesla’s 2022 earnings have risen to about $8 a share from $6 over the past few weeks. “Rising estimates drove Tesla to the moon in 2020. They will drive Tesla to $1,000-plus in 2022,” Black says.\nIves rates Tesla stock Buy, and Tesla is the largest position in Black’s fund.\nYes, there are still Tesla bears out there who believe the stock is overvalued. The bottom third of analyst price targets averages about $425, less than half of Friday’s close.\nBears expect the sky-high valuation to give investors pause eventually. Stocks don’t usually fall just because investors, collectively, wake up one morning and feel differently about valuation. Something has to happen. The overall market could tumble, or the business could trip up. Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow to 1.3 million units in 2022 from about 890,000 units in 2021. Any hiccup to growth would be a negative catalyst for shares.\nWhether the stock rises or falls in the short run is anyone’s guess. For now, though, the momentum belongs to Tesla bulls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828407704,"gmtCreate":1633931557564,"gmtModify":1633931557626,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828407704","repostId":"2174970838","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856715692,"gmtCreate":1635212926873,"gmtModify":1635212927062,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856715692","repostId":"1112705928","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881690810,"gmtCreate":1631328116830,"gmtModify":1631884170948,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cheap","listText":"Cheap","text":"Cheap","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881690810","repostId":"2166726753","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166726753","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631326722,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2166726753?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 10:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166726753","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","content":"<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla raises price for Performance Model Y in China to 387,900 yuan<blockquote>特斯拉将性能版Model Y在华售价上调至38.79万元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-11 10:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model&nbsp;Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示将高性能Model Y在华售价提高1万元至38.79万元-特斯拉微博。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491c8dbad3baf69e3c07a30dbacd6b95\" tg-width=\"745\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166726753","content_text":"Tesla Inc says raises price for Performance Model Y in China by 10,000 yuan to 387,900 yuan - Tesla Weibo.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146494788,"gmtCreate":1626095660444,"gmtModify":1631893943960,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146494788","repostId":"1109601351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855521276,"gmtCreate":1635384453970,"gmtModify":1635384454087,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855521276","repostId":"2178234765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852479019,"gmtCreate":1635299543020,"gmtModify":1635299991327,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up pls","listText":"Up up up pls","text":"Up up up pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852479019","repostId":"2178285379","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867170976,"gmtCreate":1633231152743,"gmtModify":1633231152901,"author":{"id":"3581486451712984","authorId":"3581486451712984","name":"LUILUI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c3a85739c7481d19d0bf30f288109d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581486451712984","idStr":"3581486451712984"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867170976","repostId":"2172964519","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}