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2021-06-21

Ok

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2021-04-19

Scary times!

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2021-06-17

Ok

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2021-06-17

Ok

Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Nice

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2021-06-14

Tough

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2021-06-20

Nice

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2021-06-19

Nice

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2021-06-21

Sure bo

Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Ok

Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>

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stock Apple","listText":"Good stock Apple","text":"Good stock Apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698067867","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167169784,"gmtCreate":1624252635948,"gmtModify":1631889806213,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":141,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167169784","repostId":"2145108800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167185742,"gmtCreate":1624252417786,"gmtModify":1631889806250,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure bo&nbsp;","listText":"Sure bo&nbsp;","text":"Sure bo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167185742","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. 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Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164814828,"gmtCreate":1624191555964,"gmtModify":1631889806248,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164814828","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164814317,"gmtCreate":1624191543039,"gmtModify":1631889806252,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164814317","repostId":"2144771068","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162636835,"gmtCreate":1624060634227,"gmtModify":1631889806253,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162636835","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162636906,"gmtCreate":1624060622305,"gmtModify":1631889806255,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162636906","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168282066,"gmtCreate":1623976332055,"gmtModify":1631889806257,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168282066","repostId":"1198149770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198149770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623974643,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198149770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198149770","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-e","content":"<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198149770","content_text":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.\nFor the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.\nAdobe stock rose 2.7% to $566 in extended trading.\n\nAdobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.\nDigital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.\nThe company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.\nFor the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.\n“Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.\nChief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168286953,"gmtCreate":1623976319672,"gmtModify":1631889806261,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168286953","repostId":"1198149770","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198149770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623974643,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198149770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198149770","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-e","content":"<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations<blockquote>Adobe第二季度盈利超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价周四晚间走高，此前这家创意软件公司公布了截至6月4日的第二财季业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe（股票代码：ADBE）报告本季度营收为38.4亿美元，同比增长23%，高于该公司预期的37.2亿美元。非GAAP利润为每股3.03美元，高于公司预期的每股2.81美元。根据公认会计原则，Adobe每股盈利2.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> Adobe stock rose 2.7%&nbsp;to $566&nbsp;in extended trading.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe股价在盘后交易中上涨2.7%至566美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b7cdf0a510d12cc43d7e44330be797\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Adobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe在每个领域的业绩都超出了预期。数字媒体收入为27.9亿美元，增长25%，比公司指引高出4个百分点。其中创意收入23.2亿美元，增长24%，文档云收入4.96亿美元，增长30%。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.</p><p><blockquote>数字体验部门收入为9.38亿美元，增长21%，比公司18%增长的目标高出3个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，本季度回购了约210万股股票。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计第三财季营收为38.8亿美元，略高于华尔街普遍预期的38.3亿美元，非GAAP每股利润为3美元，高于华尔街普遍预期的每股2.89美元。该公司预计本季度数字体验领域增长21%，数字体验领域增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe首席执行官Shantanu Narayen在一份声明中表示：“随着Creative Cloud、Document Cloud和Experience Cloud继续改变数字优先世界中的工作、学习和娱乐，Adobe第二季度表现出色。”</blockquote></p><p> Chief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)在一份声明中补充道：“我们在创意、文档和客户体验管理业务中看到的巨大市场机会和势头使我们能够再创历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198149770","content_text":"Adobe stock is trading higher late Thursday after the creative-software company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 4.\nFor the quarter, Adobe (ticker: ADBE) reported revenue of $3.84 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and ahead of the company’s forecast of $3.72 billion. Non-GAAP profits were $3.03 a share, ahead of the company’s projection of $2.81 a share. Under generally accepted accounting principles, Adobe earned $2.32 a share.\nAdobe stock rose 2.7% to $566 in extended trading.\n\nAdobe’s results were above expectations in every segment. Digital Media revenue was $2.79 billion, up 25%, and four points better than the company’s guidance. That includes creative revenue of $2.32 billion, up 24%, and document cloud revenue of $496 million, up 30%.\nDigital Experience segment revenue was $938 million, up 21%, and three points better than the company’s target for 18% growth.\nThe company also said it bought back about 2.1 million shares in the quarter.\nFor the fiscal third quarter, Adobe sees revenue of $3.88 billion, slightly higher than the Street consensus forecast of $3.83 billion, with non-GAAP profits of $3 a share, above the Street consensus estimate for $2.89 a share. The company sees growth in the quarter of 21% in the digital experience segment, and 25% in digital experience.\n“Adobe had an outstanding second quarter as Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud continue to transform work, learn and play in a digital-first world,” Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said in a statement.\nChief Financial Officer John Murphy added in a statement that “the large market opportunity and momentum we are seeing across our creative, document and customer experience management businesses position us well to deliver another record year.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168288242,"gmtCreate":1623976309386,"gmtModify":1631889806265,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tough","listText":"Tough","text":"Tough","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168288242","repostId":"2144474967","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163561564,"gmtCreate":1623889158658,"gmtModify":1631889806266,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163561564","repostId":"1124213234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124213234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623888164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124213234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124213234","media":"Barrons","summary":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neu","content":"<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124213234","content_text":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.\nJefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.\nHe wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.\nAlthough investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.\nBehavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.\nThill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.\nIn designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.\nMeanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.\nHe noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending MGM acquisition and buying the rights to stream Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.\nAnmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.\nThe number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.\nAnmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163561186,"gmtCreate":1623889151145,"gmtModify":1634026455531,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163561186","repostId":"1191044253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169636620,"gmtCreate":1623832004960,"gmtModify":1634027412517,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169636620","repostId":"1179963706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179963706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623828183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179963706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?<blockquote>维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179963706","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These shares aren't for the faint of heart.","content":"<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility.&nbsp;In the last year alone, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:SPCE)&nbsp;has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than&nbsp;doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.</p><p><blockquote>对于愿意冒险经历一些波动的投资者来说，航天行业是一个高潜力、高风险的投资机会。仅去年一年，<b>维珍银河控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE）上涨300%，然后下跌75%，较近期低点上涨了一倍多。坚持下去的投资者表现不错，但这并不容易。</blockquote></p><p> More than even the highest flying&nbsp;growth stocks&nbsp;on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.</p><p><blockquote>与市场上增长最快的股票相比，这是一种目前繁荣与萧条的投资。如果维珍银河成功，它可能会重塑我们对太空的看法。但如果失败，该公司可能会以灾难告终。现在，我认为值得冒这个险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2bd0b3467fea65d95ded6ecb659b938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：维珍银河。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What fundamentals?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么基本面？</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨维珍银河的机遇之前，重要的是要指出这是一家尚未盈利的公司。它正在烧钱，希望从研究和快速太空之旅的客户门票中获得收入，但它尚未进行商业发射。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fd6129b14f307e5702187274edae41\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>SPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的SPCE收入(TTM)数据。TTM=过去12个月。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Being a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.</p><p><blockquote>成为一家预营收公司并不坏，但这表明它的发展还处于多么早期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Building a new market in space</b></p><p><blockquote><b>打造太空新市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的乐观理由是，它将重新定义我们对太空的看法。只要25万美元，一旦商业飞行开始，任何人都可以进入太空。这听起来是一大笔钱，但想想就在一二十年前，太空似乎是多么遥不可及。现在，只需要一本大支票簿就能到达那里。这次飞行只有几分钟长，但这是一生一次的经历，已经吸引了600多人预订。</blockquote></p><p> Management thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，当运营全面加速时，像该公司在新墨西哥州建造的太空港每年将能够产生10亿美元的收入。在世界各地建造几个太空港，突然将公司估值为87亿美元（今天的市值）似乎并没有那么疯狂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-speed travel is next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个是高速旅行</b></blockquote></p><p> In development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight&nbsp;from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.</p><p><blockquote>正在开发的是一种马赫3的飞机，可以将高速旅行提升到一个新的水平。虽然目前正在测试的航天器是为了旅游，但3马赫的飞机可以提高全球旅行的效率，将从洛杉矶到东京的飞行时间从12小时减少到3到4小时。它有9到19个座位，看起来更像是一架私人飞机，而不是失败的协和式飞机，协和式飞机有92到128名乘客。</blockquote></p><p> We don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.</p><p><blockquote>我们不知道太空旅游或马赫速度旅行是否会成功，但想象一下它们是否会成功。如果每年有成千上万的人飞入太空，并且在失重的气氛中看到名人或富人的视频是司空见惯的，那么这就有可能塑造我们对太空旅游的看法。与此同时，维珍银河设计的可重复使用火箭可以降低成本，使那些愿意花10万美元左右买票的人能够进行太空旅游。这可能会真正改变我们看待空间的方式。这种颠覆将为投资者带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic is a buy, with risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河值得买入，但存在风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的投资论点非常简单：维珍银河可能会颠覆我们对太空访问和马赫速度旅行的看法。管理层认为，它每年可以完成400次太空飞行，每个航天港可产生10亿美元的收入，并有可能在全球建造数十个航天港。从长远来看，太空港还可以容纳马赫速度的飞机。如果维珍银河成功，该公司可能会打开今天不存在的数十亿美元的市场。</blockquote></p><p> As big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.</p><p><blockquote>机会很大，风险也很大。测试或产品开发的失败可能会让公司陷入困境。今天，我认为回报大于风险，从现在起一二十年后，我们都会知道有人访问过太空。我们对周围宇宙的看法的潜在转变使这家公司成为我很高兴拥有并追随未来的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?<blockquote>维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Virgin Galactic Stock a Buy?<blockquote>维珍银河股票值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility.&nbsp;In the last year alone, the stock of&nbsp;<b>Virgin Galactic Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:SPCE)&nbsp;has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than&nbsp;doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.</p><p><blockquote>对于愿意冒险经历一些波动的投资者来说，航天行业是一个高潜力、高风险的投资机会。仅去年一年，<b>维珍银河控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SPCE）上涨300%，然后下跌75%，较近期低点上涨了一倍多。坚持下去的投资者表现不错，但这并不容易。</blockquote></p><p> More than even the highest flying&nbsp;growth stocks&nbsp;on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.</p><p><blockquote>与市场上增长最快的股票相比，这是一种目前繁荣与萧条的投资。如果维珍银河成功，它可能会重塑我们对太空的看法。但如果失败，该公司可能会以灾难告终。现在，我认为值得冒这个险。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2bd0b3467fea65d95ded6ecb659b938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：维珍银河。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What fundamentals?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>什么基本面？</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨维珍银河的机遇之前，重要的是要指出这是一家尚未盈利的公司。它正在烧钱，希望从研究和快速太空之旅的客户门票中获得收入，但它尚未进行商业发射。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fd6129b14f307e5702187274edae41\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\"><span>SPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的SPCE收入(TTM)数据。TTM=过去12个月。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Being a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.</p><p><blockquote>成为一家预营收公司并不坏，但这表明它的发展还处于多么早期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Building a new market in space</b></p><p><blockquote><b>打造太空新市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的乐观理由是，它将重新定义我们对太空的看法。只要25万美元，一旦商业飞行开始，任何人都可以进入太空。这听起来是一大笔钱，但想想就在一二十年前，太空似乎是多么遥不可及。现在，只需要一本大支票簿就能到达那里。这次飞行只有几分钟长，但这是一生一次的经历，已经吸引了600多人预订。</blockquote></p><p> Management thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，当运营全面加速时，像该公司在新墨西哥州建造的太空港每年将能够产生10亿美元的收入。在世界各地建造几个太空港，突然将公司估值为87亿美元（今天的市值）似乎并没有那么疯狂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>High-speed travel is next</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一个是高速旅行</b></blockquote></p><p> In development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight&nbsp;from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.</p><p><blockquote>正在开发的是一种马赫3的飞机，可以将高速旅行提升到一个新的水平。虽然目前正在测试的航天器是为了旅游，但3马赫的飞机可以提高全球旅行的效率，将从洛杉矶到东京的飞行时间从12小时减少到3到4小时。它有9到19个座位，看起来更像是一架私人飞机，而不是失败的协和式飞机，协和式飞机有92到128名乘客。</blockquote></p><p> We don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.</p><p><blockquote>我们不知道太空旅游或马赫速度旅行是否会成功，但想象一下它们是否会成功。如果每年有成千上万的人飞入太空，并且在失重的气氛中看到名人或富人的视频是司空见惯的，那么这就有可能塑造我们对太空旅游的看法。与此同时，维珍银河设计的可重复使用火箭可以降低成本，使那些愿意花10万美元左右买票的人能够进行太空旅游。这可能会真正改变我们看待空间的方式。这种颠覆将为投资者带来巨大收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Virgin Galactic is a buy, with risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河值得买入，但存在风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河的投资论点非常简单：维珍银河可能会颠覆我们对太空访问和马赫速度旅行的看法。管理层认为，它每年可以完成400次太空飞行，每个航天港可产生10亿美元的收入，并有可能在全球建造数十个航天港。从长远来看，太空港还可以容纳马赫速度的飞机。如果维珍银河成功，该公司可能会打开今天不存在的数十亿美元的市场。</blockquote></p><p> As big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.</p><p><blockquote>机会很大，风险也很大。测试或产品开发的失败可能会让公司陷入困境。今天，我认为回报大于风险，从现在起一二十年后，我们都会知道有人访问过太空。我们对周围宇宙的看法的潜在转变使这家公司成为我很高兴拥有并追随未来的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/is-virgin-galactic-stock-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179963706","content_text":"The space industry is a high-potential, high-risk investment opportunity for investors willing to take the leap into some volatility. In the last year alone, the stock of Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE) has jumped 300%,then fallen 75%, and more than doubled from recent lows. Investors who have held on for the ride have done well, but it hasn't been easy.\nMore than even the highest flying growth stocks on the market, this is a boom-and-bust kind of investment right now. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, it could reshape the way we think about space. But if it fails, the company could end in disaster. Right now, I think it's worth the risk.\nIMAGE SOURCE: VIRGIN GALACTIC.\nWhat fundamentals?\nBefore we get too far into Virgin Galactic's opportunities, it's important to point out that this is a pre-revenue company. It is burning cash in anticipation of generating revenue from research and from customer tickets for a quick trip into space, but it hasn't launched commercially yet.\nSPCE REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS. TTM = TRAILING 12 MONTHS.\nBeing a pre-revenue company isn't bad, but it shows just how early it is in its development.\nBuilding a new market in space\nThe bullish case for Virgin Galactic is that it'll redefine how we think about space. For as little as $250,000, anyone can travel into space once commercial flights begin. That sounds like a lot of money, but think about how unattainable space seemed only a decade or two ago. Now, it just takes a big checkbook to get there. The flight is only a few minutes long, but it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience that has already attracted over 600 reservations.\nManagement thinks that when operations are fully ramped up, a spaceport like the company has built in New Mexico will be able to generate $1 billion per year in revenue. Build a few spaceports around the world, and suddenly valuing the company at $8.7 billion (its market capitalization today) doesn't seem so crazy.\nHigh-speed travel is next\nIn development is a Mach 3 aircraft that could take high-speed travel to a new level. While the current spacecraft being tested is meant for tourism, a Mach 3 aircraft could make global travel more efficient, reducing the flight from Los Angeles to Tokyo from 12 hours to three to four hours. And with a capacity of 9 to 19 seats, it would seem more like a flight on a private jet than the failed Concorde, which had a capacity of 92 to 128 passengers.\nWe don't know if space tourism or mach-speed travel will succeed but imagine if they do. If thousands of people fly into space each year and it's commonplace to see videos of celebrities or wealthy people in a weightless atmosphere, it has the potential to shape how we view space tourism. At the same time, Virgin Galactic's design of reusable rockets could allow it to reduce costs to make space tourism possible to those willing to spend around $100,000 on a ticket. And that could truly change how we view space. That's the kind of disruption that would drive big gains for investors.\nVirgin Galactic is a buy, with risks\nThe investment thesis for Virgin Galactic is pretty simple: Virgin Galactic could disrupt the way we think about visiting space and Mach-speed travel. Management thinks it can complete 400 space flights per year, generating $1 billion in revenue per spaceport, with the potential to build dozens of spaceports around the world. Long-term, the spaceports could also house mach-speed aircraft. If Virgin Galactic succeeds, the company could open up multibillion-dollar markets that don't exist today.\nAs big as the opportunity is, the risks are hefty as well. A failure in testing or product development could sink the company. Today, I think the reward outweighs the risk, and a decade or two from now we'll all know of someone who has visited space. That potential shift in how we think about the universe around us makes this a company I'm excited to own, and follow, into the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169638496,"gmtCreate":1623831992515,"gmtModify":1634027413089,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169638496","repostId":"1144784092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144784092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623828426,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144784092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 15:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"California Approves $100M Boost To Help Regulate Struggling Cannabis Industry<blockquote>加州批准1亿美元资金帮助监管陷入困境的大麻行业</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144784092","media":"benzinga","summary":"California is injecting $100 million into the state's struggling legal cannabis industry.\nA new meas","content":"<p><div> California is injecting $100 million into the state's struggling legal cannabis industry. A new measure, proposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, was approved by the California Legislature on Monday and aims to...</p><p><blockquote><div>加州正在向该州苦苦挣扎的合法大麻产业注入1亿美元。加州立法机构周一批准了州长加文·纽瑟姆提出的一项新措施，旨在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>California Approves $100M Boost To Help Regulate Struggling Cannabis Industry<blockquote>加州批准1亿美元资金帮助监管陷入困境的大麻行业</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalifornia Approves $100M Boost To Help Regulate Struggling Cannabis Industry<blockquote>加州批准1亿美元资金帮助监管陷入困境的大麻行业</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 15:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> California is injecting $100 million into the state's struggling legal cannabis industry. A new measure, proposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, was approved by the California Legislature on Monday and aims to...</p><p><blockquote><div>加州正在向该州苦苦挣扎的合法大麻产业注入1亿美元。加州立法机构周一批准了州长加文·纽瑟姆提出的一项新措施，旨在...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","CURLF":"Curaleaf Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/06/21578778/california-approves-100m-boost-to-help-regulate-struggling-cannabis-industry","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144784092","content_text":"California is injecting $100 million into the state's struggling legal cannabis industry.\nA new measure, proposed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, was approved by the California Legislature on Monday and aims to help legal cannabis operators acquire permanent licenses.\nAccording to Newsom’s office, about 82% of the state’s legal operators still hold provisional licenses as of April 2021. These provisional licenses are due on Jan. 1, 2022.\nWhile adult-use cannabis was made legal in the Golden State in 2016, most growers, retailers and manufacturers have been unable to transition from provisional licenses to permanent ones, which need to be renewed on an annual basis.\nThis is due to the high cost of auditing operations to comply with environmental regulations, according toa report by the LA Times.\nLos Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said the money is “essential in supporting a well-regulated, equitable, and sustainable cannabis market.”\nCannabis businesses would be able to use the money, which will be provided in the form of grants, to hire professionals that can help them complete the environmental studies needed to transition their provisional licenses to permanent ones.\n“This grant program will certainly ease the burden placed on legal companies and allow regulators to work through the backlog of licenses at a faster pace,\" Matt Hawkins, managing partner of Entourage Effect Capital and chairman of the board at Harborside(CSE:HBOR) told Benzinga.\nHowever, some in the California industry say the funding is not nearly enough to solve the systemic issue it’s meant to address: the state's lengthy bottleneck in getting annual business permits approved.\nJerred Kiloh, president of L.A.-based United Cannabis Business Association, said he’d prefer to see the Newsom administration focus on reforming the licensing process itself rather than throwing money at an existing problem, reportedMJBizDaily.\nKiloh noted that because the $100 million is going only to cities and counties that have already approved legal cannabis programs, it won’t incentivize local governments that have banned marijuana businesses to change their stance.\nThe funding will be assigned initially to 17 eligible cities and counties, with LA receiving 22% of the amount.\nGovernor Newsom is pushing for a six-month extension of provisional licenses, from January to June 2022, which has yet to receive approval.\nHarborside's Hawkins said industry stakeholders also support another potentially consequential bill that would incentivize local jurisdictions that currently prohibit regulated businesses to approve licenses.\n\"Both of these policies would create a framework that tangibly supports plant-touching operations,” Hawkins said.\nMeanwhile, California remains the largest cannabis industry in the world, with nearly $3 billion in sales in 2019 alone.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ACB":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"CURLF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185425534,"gmtCreate":1623668691328,"gmtModify":1634030431743,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tough","listText":"Tough","text":"Tough","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185425534","repostId":"2143978458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185425897,"gmtCreate":1623668678719,"gmtModify":1634030431967,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185425897","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373375180,"gmtCreate":1618826979740,"gmtModify":1634290596697,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scary times!","listText":"Scary times!","text":"Scary times!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":75,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373375180","repostId":"2128525488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":167169784,"gmtCreate":1624252635948,"gmtModify":1631889806213,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":141,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167169784","repostId":"2145108800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":373375180,"gmtCreate":1618826979740,"gmtModify":1634290596697,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scary times!","listText":"Scary times!","text":"Scary times!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":75,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373375180","repostId":"2128525488","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163561186,"gmtCreate":1623889151145,"gmtModify":1634026455531,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163561186","repostId":"1191044253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163561564,"gmtCreate":1623889158658,"gmtModify":1631889806266,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163561564","repostId":"1124213234","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124213234","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623888164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124213234?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124213234","media":"Barrons","summary":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neu","content":"<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Has Underperformed. Two Analysts Advise Buying Now.<blockquote>亚马逊股票表现不佳。两位分析师建议立即买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 08:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊最近几个季度取得了惊人的增长，但该股一直陷入中性，今年迄今仅上涨4%，落后大盘近10个百分点。一些分析师认为，表现不佳为投资者提供了机会。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师布伦特·蒂尔(Brent Thill)周三指定亚马逊（股票代码：AMZN）股票为特许经营权选择，重申买入评级和4,200美元的股价目标。周三，亚马逊股价上涨0.95%，至3,415.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> He wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中写道，亚马逊可能会受益于电子商务采用率的增加以及利润率更高的云和广告业务的更快增长。他指出，该股最近的表现使其息税折旧摊销前远期收益倍数比历史正常水平低约10%。</blockquote></p><p> Although investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.</p><p><blockquote>尽管投资者已经远离了一些大流行时代的赢家，并且仍然担心随着零售店恢复更正常的运营，电子商务增长将放缓，但蒂尔表示，亚马逊的前景可以说比以往任何时候都好。</blockquote></p><p> Behavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔说，疫情带来的行为变化导致电子商务采用率永久增加。他还表示，亚马逊网络服务和广告的增长将足以抵消核心零售业务近期因与大流行时期的高销售额相比而放缓的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Thill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.</p><p><blockquote>蒂尔表示，一项针对约700名美国成年人购物习惯的专有调查发现，自疫情开始以来，60%的人在网上消费增加了。63%的人表示，即使限制已经取消，他们仍在继续这样做。“亚马逊显然表现出色，”他说，自限制取消以来，77%的消费者继续在该网站上增加支出。</blockquote></p><p> In designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.</p><p><blockquote>在指定亚马逊为特许经营权时，蒂尔取消了Alphabet（GOOGL）的这一地位。他表示，虽然他仍然看好Alphabet股票，但该股今年上涨了39%，较历史平均水平溢价10%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，摩根大通分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)周三对亚马逊Prime进行了深入研究，并报告称，这项每年定价为119美元的服务每年可提供约1,000美元的价值。这不仅包括亚马逊上销售的许多产品的免费送货，在某些情况下是在同一天，还包括亚马逊Prime Video、Prime Music以及亚马逊生鲜和全食超市的杂货送货。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending&nbsp;MGM acquisition&nbsp;and buying the rights to stream&nbsp;Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added&nbsp;Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司一直在亚马逊Prime的内容上投入巨资，包括即将进行的米高梅收购和购买周四橄榄球之夜的转播权，同时还扩大了亚马逊音乐上的播客产品。该公司还增加了Amazon Key，这是一项在美国5000多个城市提供车库内送货服务。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth表示，亚马逊自2018年将Prime的价格从每年99美元提高到119美元以来就没有提高过。他认为价格最早可能在2021年下半年上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth预测，随着越来越多的海外用户注册，Prime用户数量将从去年的2亿增至2021年的2.375亿。他表示，亚马逊可以在当前市场将其国际用户增加超过5000万，并且随着时间的推移，该公司还可以增加更多市场。他估计，2021年的用户数量将包括美国约9190万用户和国际1.456亿用户。</blockquote></p><p> Anmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.</p><p><blockquote>Anmuth重申了他对亚马逊股票的跑赢大盘评级和4,600美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-analysts-buy-now-51623858237?mod=hp_DAY_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124213234","content_text":"While Amazon.com has produced astonishing growth in recent quarters, the stock has been stuck in neutral, up just 4% for the year to date, trailing the broad market by almost 10 percentage points. Some analysts believe the underperformance provides an opportunity for investors.\nJefferies analyst Brent Thill on Wednesday designated Amazon (ticker: AMZN) shares a Franchise Pick, repeating a Buy rating and target of $4,200 for the stock price. On Wednesday, Amazon shares were up 0.95%, to $3,415.25.\nHe wrote in a research note that Amazon is likely to benefit from both increased e-commerce adoption and faster growth at higher-margin cloud and advertising businesses. The stock’s recent performance leaves it at a discount of about 10% discount to historical norms in terms of its multiple of forward earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, he noted.\nAlthough investors have shifted away from some of the pandemic-era winners, and concerns remain that e-commerce growth will slow as retail stores return to more normal operations, Thill said Amazon’s outlook is arguably better than ever.\nBehavioral changes resulting from the pandemic have led to a permanent increase in e-commerce adoption, Thill said. He also said growth at Amazon Web Services and in advertising will more than offset any near-term slowdown in the core retail business resulting from comparisons with high pandemic-era sales.\nThill said a proprietary survey of about 700 U.S. adults about their shopping habits found that 60% are spending more online since the pandemic began. And 63% of that group say they are continuing to do so even now that restrictions have been lifted. “Amazon is a clear standout,” he said, with 77% of consumers continuing to spend more on the site since restrictions were lifted.\nIn designating Amazon a Franchise Pick, Thill removed that status for Alphabet (GOOGL). He said that while he continues to like Alphabet shares, the 39% rally in the stock this year leaves it as a 10% premium to its historical average.\nMeanwhile, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth on Wednesday did a deep dive on Amazon Prime, and reported that the service, priced at $119 a year, delivers about $1,000 a year of value. That includes not just free delivery of many products sold on Amazon, in some instances on the same day, but also Amazon Prime Video, Prime Music, and grocery delivery from both Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods.\nHe noted that the company has been investing heavily in content for Amazon Prime, including the pending MGM acquisition and buying the rights to stream Thursday Night Football, while also expanding its podcast offerings on Amazon Music. The company has also added Amazon Key, a service for in-garage delivery in more than 5,000 U.S. cities.\nAnmuth said Amazon hasn’t increased the price of Prime since 2018, when it raised the rate to $119 a year, from $99. He thinks a price increase could come as early as the second half of 2021.\nThe number of Prime subscribers will rise to 237.5 million in 2021 from 200 million last year as more people overseas sign up, Anmuth predicted. He said Amazon could boost its international subscribers by more than 50 million in current markets and that there are many more markets the company could add over time. He estimates the 2021 subscriber count will include about 91.9 million in the U.S. and 145.6 million internationally.\nAnmuth repeated his Overweight rating and $4,600 price target on Amazon shares.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185425897,"gmtCreate":1623668678719,"gmtModify":1634030431967,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185425897","repostId":"1146430910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185425534,"gmtCreate":1623668691328,"gmtModify":1634030431743,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tough","listText":"Tough","text":"Tough","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185425534","repostId":"2143978458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164814828,"gmtCreate":1624191555964,"gmtModify":1631889806248,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164814828","repostId":"2144077147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162636835,"gmtCreate":1624060634227,"gmtModify":1631889806253,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162636835","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167185742,"gmtCreate":1624252417786,"gmtModify":1631889806250,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sure bo&nbsp;","listText":"Sure bo&nbsp;","text":"Sure bo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167185742","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162636906,"gmtCreate":1624060622305,"gmtModify":1631889806255,"author":{"id":"3581549918562481","authorId":"3581549918562481","name":"Teddybear089","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581549918562481","authorIdStr":"3581549918562481"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162636906","repostId":"2144774740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144774740","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"The leading daily newsletter for the latest financial and business news. 33Yrs Helping Stock Investors with Investing Insights, Tools, News & More.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Investors","id":"1085713068","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c"},"pubTimestamp":1624030096,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2144774740?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144774740","media":"Investors","summary":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens following the Covid-19 pandemic, a senior executive says.","content":"<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Adobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAdobe Getting Lift From Economic Reopening Post-Pandemic<blockquote>Adobe从大流行后经济重新开放中获得提振</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/608dd68a89ed486e18f64efe3136266c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Investors </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-18 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Software giant <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b> is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>软件巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">土坯</a></b>一位高管表示，随着Covid-19大流行消退，经济重新开放，该公司正在受益。该公司的季度报告证明了这一点。ADBE股价周五上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这家数字媒体和营销软件制造商周四晚些时候公布的第二财季收益轻松超出预期。Adobe还指导了本季度的上述观点。</blockquote></p><p> The San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州圣何塞的公司在截至6月4日的季度销售额为38.4亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.03美元。与去年同期相比，Adobe盈利增长24%，销售额增长23%。</blockquote></p><p> For the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>Adobe预计本季度调整后每股收益为3美元，增长17%，销售额为38.8亿美元，增长20%。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>ADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report</h2> In morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.</p><p><blockquote><h2>ADBE股价在收益报告后上涨</h2>今天股市早盘交易中，ADBE股价上涨2.2%，接近563.35点。盘中早些时候，ADBE股价创下570点的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我们的三项业务——创意云、文档云和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">经验</a>云——本季度刚刚以出色的表现击败了它，”首席财务官约翰·墨菲(John Murphy)告诉《投资者商业日报》。“以个性化方式进行内容创作和客户体验参与正在我们所有业务中引起共鸣。它确实推动了业务的发展势头和加速。”</blockquote></p><p> That momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示，这种势头将在该公司季节性疲软的第三财季持续下去。本季度包括夏季的六月、七月和八月。</blockquote></p><p> \"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"</p><p><blockquote>墨菲表示：“宏观经济稳定给了很多企业再次投资的信心。”“企业正在优先考虑数字化转型。”</blockquote></p><p> The reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，疫情过后经济的重新开放和重返办公室应该会为Adobe的业务提供推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <h2>Analysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock</h2> At least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.</p><p><blockquote><h2>分析师提高Adobe股票的目标价</h2>财报发布后，至少15名华尔街分析师上调了ADBE股票的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券分析师Gregg Moskowitz重申了对ADBE股票的买入评级，并将目标价从600点上调至640点。</blockquote></p><p> \"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"</p><p><blockquote>莫斯科维茨在给客户的一份报告中表示：“Adobe广泛的软件解决方案组合使其成为内容创建、消费和协作的黄金标准。”“Adobe凭借其全面的端到端产品使其与竞争对手区分开来，处于有利地位，可以从数字化转型中受益。”</blockquote></p><p> On June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week&nbsp;consolidation period&nbsp;at a&nbsp;buy point&nbsp;of 536.98, according to&nbsp;IBD MarketSmith charts.</p><p><blockquote>根据IBD MarketSmith图表，6月11日，ADBE股票突破了40周的盘整期，买入点为536.98。</blockquote></p><p> However, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.</p><p><blockquote>然而，IBD排行榜分析为投资者提供了较大盘整格局中杯基的早期买入点525.54。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144774740","content_text":"Software giant Adobe is benefiting as the economy reopens as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes, a senior executive says. The company's beat-and-raise quarterly report provided proof of that. ADBE stock jumped on Friday.\nThe maker of digital media and marketing software late Thursday reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that easily topped expectations. Adobe also guided above views for the current quarter.\nThe San Jose, Calif.-based company earned an adjusted $3.03 a share on sales of $3.84 billion in the quarter ended June 4. On a year-over-year basis, Adobe earnings rose 24% while sales climbed 23%.\nFor the current quarter, Adobe expects to earn an adjusted $3 a share, up 17%, on sales of $3.88 billion, up 20%.\nADBE Stock Rises After Earnings Report\nIn morning trading on the stock market today, ADBE stock advanced 2.2%, near 563.35. Earlier in the session, ADBE stock notched a record high 570.\n\"All three of our businesses — Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud — just killed it this quarter with excellent performance,\" Chief Financial Officer John Murphy told Investor's Business Daily. \"Content creation and customer experience engagement in personalized ways are resonating across all of our businesses. And it's really driving the momentum and acceleration in the business.\"\nThat momentum will continue in the company's seasonally weaker fiscal third quarter, Murphy said. The current quarter includes the summer months of June, July and August.\n\"The macroeconomic stability is giving a lot of enterprises confidence to invest again,\" Murphy said. \"Companies are prioritizing digital transformation.\"\nThe reopening of the economy and return to offices after the pandemic should provide a tailwind for Adobe's business, he said.\nAnalysts Raise Price Targets On Adobe Stock\nAt least 15 Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on ADBE stock after the earnings report.\nMizuho Securities analyst Gregg Moskowitz reiterated his buy rating on ADBE stock and upped his price target to 640 from 600.\n\"Adobe's expansive portfolio of software solutions has made it the gold standard in content creation, consumption, and collaboration,\" Moskowitz said in a note to clients. \"Adobe is very well positioned to benefit from digital transformation with its comprehensive end-to-end offering that differentiates it from competitors.\"\nOn June 11, ADBE stock broke out of a 40-week consolidation period at a buy point of 536.98, according to IBD MarketSmith charts.\nHowever, IBD Leaderboard analysis offered investors an earlier buy point of 525.54 from a cup base within the larger consolidation pattern.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADBE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}