ccwak的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ccwak

ccwak

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

379关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-14

Magical

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-30

Great

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-27

No business fundamentals

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-15

Buy all?

AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote>

2021-07-17

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-04

Cyber companies will thrive

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

Be wary when others are greedy

Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨忽略了华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>

2021-08-31

Often the forgotten tiger

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-16

Oil will rise

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-26

Great!

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581588580582295","uuid":"3581588580582295","gmtCreate":1618495590467,"gmtModify":1624441471087,"name":"ccwak","pinyin":"ccwak","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":379,"tweetSize":142,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.10.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.05.08","exceedPercentage":"60.92%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.04","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.22","exceedPercentage":"60.12%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":876744956,"gmtCreate":1637369711239,"gmtModify":1637369711421,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Power","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Power","text":"$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$Power","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97a5517c4c2c1506d17871363e81505","width":"1125","height":"3879"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876744956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878676245,"gmtCreate":1637193447877,"gmtModify":1637193447970,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$</a>Oh dear","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$</a>Oh dear","text":"$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$Oh dear","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a15d1833e40fa8c46343380733fb26","width":"1125","height":"3699"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878676245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871735691,"gmtCreate":1637111471671,"gmtModify":1637111471825,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$</a>Power","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$</a>Power","text":"$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$Power","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48c4b2df8a838e2f643cce40f057fe9","width":"1125","height":"3609"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871735691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871960129,"gmtCreate":1637019798589,"gmtModify":1637019798589,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Wow great","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a>Wow great","text":"$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$Wow great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577aaef712b13816d016fd8892428500","width":"1125","height":"3879"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871960129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873652370,"gmtCreate":1636940613337,"gmtModify":1636940613636,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$</a>Looking good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$</a>Looking good","text":"$Domino's Pizza(DPZ)$Looking good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf9d2abdd2fe22a2afcee21c7a545387","width":"1125","height":"3699"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873652370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879707831,"gmtCreate":1636770071029,"gmtModify":1636770071088,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$NetEase(NTES)$</a>Yes!!!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">$NetEase(NTES)$</a>Yes!!!!!","text":"$NetEase(NTES)$Yes!!!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264731ef534fbe4ff27d0a4fc73df96a","width":"1125","height":"3815"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879707831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879392519,"gmtCreate":1636680659337,"gmtModify":1636680659529,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great food!","listText":"Great food!","text":"Great food!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae6d6ff97cf4578d148d0365badf783","width":"1125","height":"3760"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879392519","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870319624,"gmtCreate":1636587446356,"gmtModify":1636587446452,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inflation hedge","listText":"Inflation hedge","text":"Inflation hedge","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ebaa76734aba5c67a5984bb4e0329b7","width":"1125","height":"2599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870319624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847134767,"gmtCreate":1636500722909,"gmtModify":1636500723049,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Staying up","listText":"Staying up","text":"Staying up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5239fcfe43a275b68b34967cbd4f60a","width":"1125","height":"4030"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847134767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845207486,"gmtCreate":1636338426297,"gmtModify":1636340049154,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The future","listText":"The future","text":"The future","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55372209a2f4643936cd3b02a803a7da","width":"1125","height":"4120"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845207486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845030356,"gmtCreate":1636251080326,"gmtModify":1636251080516,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just ate it yesterday","listText":"Just ate it yesterday","text":"Just ate it yesterday","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff63d3bdcc47d195e6dbe74ce9b3773","width":"1125","height":"3940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845030356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842629797,"gmtCreate":1636171727897,"gmtModify":1636171728036,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unbeatable","listText":"Unbeatable","text":"Unbeatable","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92dc63263dfb46562f40a663f8e2f915","width":"1125","height":"4120"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842629797","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846613190,"gmtCreate":1636077342081,"gmtModify":1636079314617,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow! Staples","listText":"Wow! Staples","text":"Wow! Staples","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8699d908a80d1bdc38b84af30d12982d","width":"1125","height":"3940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846613190","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848684659,"gmtCreate":1635994934405,"gmtModify":1635994936040,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should be ok","listText":"Should be ok","text":"Should be ok","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90dc6e9aa99223cfae5eb7064d8f05d0","width":"1125","height":"3337"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848684659","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841205278,"gmtCreate":1635911670434,"gmtModify":1635911670493,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow great","listText":"Wow great","text":"Wow great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d56bac290ace72c70e2202c87de4b8b5","width":"1125","height":"4210"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841205278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843613226,"gmtCreate":1635823010673,"gmtModify":1635823010735,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can’t move up further","listText":"Can’t move up further","text":"Can’t move up further","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/321afd446d84b64d5ce8d0a79d5a1c51","width":"1125","height":"4030"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843613226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857704014,"gmtCreate":1635558983213,"gmtModify":1635558985507,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda494406db5cfe1aa557abbea8a2c0c","width":"1125","height":"3940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857704014","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854563135,"gmtCreate":1635468432552,"gmtModify":1635468433114,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddcd4231d0f6a37b0971a95d466dee87","width":"1125","height":"3850"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854563135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":280,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855678499,"gmtCreate":1635375962216,"gmtModify":1635377488605,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfaaeda237ff51f3d910109d742ea871","width":"1125","height":"3940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855678499","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852443774,"gmtCreate":1635299135627,"gmtModify":1635299135771,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda2c15c30c63dc452fb78a20287098e","width":"1125","height":"3328"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852443774","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":897893029,"gmtCreate":1628903841861,"gmtModify":1633688643452,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Magical","listText":"Magical","text":"Magical","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897893029","repostId":"2159215280","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153658795,"gmtCreate":1625023357517,"gmtModify":1633945712983,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153658795","repostId":"1122418477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124532703,"gmtCreate":1624771461902,"gmtModify":1633948773837,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No business fundamentals","listText":"No business fundamentals","text":"No business fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124532703","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830914965,"gmtCreate":1629000243457,"gmtModify":1633688041895,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy all?","listText":"Buy all?","text":"Buy all?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830914965","repostId":"1138705612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138705612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628995730,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138705612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138705612","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.This left ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD最近的CPU和GPU产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD的EPYC服务器芯片可以与某些英特尔芯片相媲美，甚至优于某些英特尔芯片，并使AMD获得了服务器CPU市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面相对于AMD拥有长期优势。</li><li>英伟达在GPU技术上领先于AMD，并正在利用其GPU进入人工智能等邻近的终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的巨人罗德斯岛，是摩尔定律力量的纪念碑。然而，该公司在10纳米工艺上遇到了麻烦，最近宣布其7纳米工艺将推迟到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD已经占据了CPU市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD目前已连续七个季度实现两位数的收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长60%，高于上一季度提供的50%的预测。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD也与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者公司的GPU技术正在窃取市场份额。NVDA还凭借其GPU成功进入了邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>对英特尔的了解也提供了对AMD的洞察。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM要求英特尔不是芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场处于双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是两者都拥有与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>特别是游戏控制台基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像PC一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86的软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了来自基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，AMD在x86芯片供应商方面还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD与台积电（NYSE：TSM）合作，使用该制造商的7纳米工艺，在工艺技术上超越了INTC。再加上AMD正在开发新的创新芯片设计，这种组合拳导致INTC失去了大量的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一个垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司在服务器市场占据主导地位，并且仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场的60%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有庞大的研发预算，并正在通过收购Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius和Mobileye扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应该仅仅因为7优于10而被英特尔新的10纳米芯片不如7纳米的说法所左右。虽然曾经用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被误用到了无用的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有一些问题必须承认。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的阻力。另一方面，应该承认，INTC的服务器处理器业务随着移动设备和云计算的激增而增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还面临着来自AMD在数据中心领域日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为CPU开发自己的基于ARM的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，INTC占据了x86市场的最大份额。这部分归功于英特尔领先的制造以及AMD与不太出色的GlobalFoundries签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素，发生了翻天覆地的转变：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电生产，英特尔面临一再的制造延迟。下面两张图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD的主要产品是CPU和GPU。AMD的芯片专为PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与INTC一样，由于为x86架构设计的PC和服务器软件占主导地位，AMD的产品在很大程度上免受竞争。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲增长很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为AMD稳步蚕食了英特尔的CPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD对CPU和GPU半定制处理器应用的关注导致了它们在微软Xbox和Sony PlayStation游戏机中的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在PC集成GPU方面，AMD与NVIDIA大致相当，而INTC以大约68%的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：汤姆五金</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，NVIDIA以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD席卷了剩下的市场份额。NVIDIA的独立GPU可以说优于AMD的（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应该在这里寻找增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管AMD的EPYC服务器CPU产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但最初该公司依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代EPYC产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器CPU比该公司的其他产品提供了更好的利润率，因此向该领域的扩张应该有助于增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD达成协议收购现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)芯片领域的领导者Xilinx(XLNX)。FPGA可用于多种应用。由于转向竞争对手的FPGA提供商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争对手的供应商。因此，如果Xilinx交易成功，AMD将获得一条宽阔的护城河业务。交易完成后18个月内运营效率约3亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购Xilinx应该会增强AMD的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD同意以350亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立GPU领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）独立GPU领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权许可，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，通过Turing发展到Ampere。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也存在于许多高端PC中，NVDA在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有优势。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正与CPU结合使用，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达的发展优势。该公司崭露头角的另一个领域是云领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是NVDA最有可能的增长途径。为了加强其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以400亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了ARM Holdings(ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM是全球最大的芯片设计许可方。它的芯片无处不在，手机、智能电视、平板电脑都能找到。使用ARM设计制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，有1300万开发人员使用ARM设备。从背景来看，NVDA有200万开发人员在开发其设备系列。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和英国都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有前瞻性的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用图表来提供这三家公司的PEG比率。由于分析师的输入可能会导致PEG比率存在相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我希望读者能够访问多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的PEG，嘉信理财只是将其指标列为PEG比率，而雅虎！财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字中的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显NVDA是最被高估的。还值得注意的是，当前市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计显示AMD的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>我是一个非常重视股票PEG比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD的PEG是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，各来源的分析师计算出AMD的PEG比率均优于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要误解我的发现。虽然INTC在很多方面的估值较低，但考虑到其他因素，我对AMD的整体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方式来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA股价目前交易价格为202.95美元。33位分析师的平均12个月目标价为186.49美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的17名分析师的平均目标价为210.53美元，比该股当前价格高出约3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价目前交易价格为107.58美元。28位分析师的平均12个月目标价为108.56美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的11位分析师的平均目标价为117.27美元，比当前股价高出约9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为54.05美元。34位分析师的平均12个月目标价为59.86美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的16位分析师的平均目标价为58.97美元，较当前股价溢价9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，自NVDA公布季度收益而INTC和AMD最近公布季度收益以来，已经过去了近三个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表提供了增长率数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计INTC在增长方面的表现不如NVDA和AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于NVIDIA，有时甚至大幅领先。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，只要说每一个都是高利润就足够了，三者并置会导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供分解股息指标的比较，但AMD不支付股息，而NVDA的收益率也很低。INTC目前的收益率约为2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达拥有126.7亿美元现金，上季度末为59.6亿美元。如果ARM收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使400亿美元收购价格中的210亿美元将是股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD重组了债务，从而降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD拥有约38亿美元现金和3.13亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有强劲的财务状况。考虑到NVDA和AMD可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次比较企业的研发预算进行正面对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔在研发上投入了超过135亿美元，NVDA花费了近28.3亿美元，AMD的研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，而且这种劣势被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。应该指出的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了其代工业务。尽管如此，它是这里明显的赢家，AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我应该补充一点，NVDA正在蚕食AMD在独立GPU市场的份额，我相信这种趋势将继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：最好的芯片股是哪只？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于ARM处理器比x86芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔大约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能对INTC来说是一个阻力，对NVDA来说是一个积极的因素。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个应该权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场上与INTC持平。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD正在将独立GPU市场的份额输给NVDA。NVDA在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMD和NVDA被视为增长机器，但人们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上个季度增长了47%。Mobileye也出现了大幅增长，收入增长了124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，与英特尔185亿美元的总收入相比只是一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但是，请注意标题指的是“芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和预期增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于目前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级基于该股票的当前估值。我承认该公司堪称典范的领导力，并相信该股票的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我也将INTC评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将很好地为长期投资者服务，但我现在相信它的复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且会有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将AMD评级为买入。这是基于本文概述的当前估值和增长率。我要补充的是，这些指标得到了我的看法的支持，即随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD可能会蚕食市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>为了更多地了解投资AMD和INTC的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li>  <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li>  <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&amp;D, marketing, and pricing.</li>  <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD最近的CPU和GPU产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD的EPYC服务器芯片可以与某些英特尔芯片相媲美，甚至优于某些英特尔芯片，并使AMD获得了服务器CPU市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面相对于AMD拥有长期优势。</li><li>英伟达在GPU技术上领先于AMD，并正在利用其GPU进入人工智能等邻近的终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的巨人罗德斯岛，是摩尔定律力量的纪念碑。然而，该公司在10纳米工艺上遇到了麻烦，最近宣布其7纳米工艺将推迟到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD已经占据了CPU市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD目前已连续七个季度实现两位数的收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长60%，高于上一季度提供的50%的预测。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD也与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者公司的GPU技术正在窃取市场份额。NVDA还凭借其GPU成功进入了邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>对英特尔的了解也提供了对AMD的洞察。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM要求英特尔不是芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场处于双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是两者都拥有与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>特别是游戏控制台基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像PC一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86的软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了来自基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，AMD在x86芯片供应商方面还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD与台积电（NYSE：TSM）合作，使用该制造商的7纳米工艺，在工艺技术上超越了INTC。再加上AMD正在开发新的创新芯片设计，这种组合拳导致INTC失去了大量的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop&nbsp;market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5%&nbsp;market&nbsp;share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU&nbsp;market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一个垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司在服务器市场占据主导地位，并且仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场的60%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&amp;D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有庞大的研发预算，并正在通过收购Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius和Mobileye扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应该仅仅因为7优于10而被英特尔新的10纳米芯片不如7纳米的说法所左右。虽然曾经用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被误用到了无用的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有一些问题必须承认。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的阻力。另一方面，应该承认，INTC的服务器处理器业务随着移动设备和云计算的激增而增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还面临着来自AMD在数据中心领域日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为CPU开发自己的基于ARM的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，INTC占据了x86市场的最大份额。这部分归功于英特尔领先的制造以及AMD与不太出色的GlobalFoundries签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素，发生了翻天覆地的转变：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电生产，英特尔面临一再的制造延迟。下面两张图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD的主要产品是CPU和GPU。AMD的芯片专为PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与INTC一样，由于为x86架构设计的PC和服务器软件占主导地位，AMD的产品在很大程度上免受竞争。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲增长很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为AMD稳步蚕食了英特尔的CPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD对CPU和GPU半定制处理器应用的关注导致了它们在微软Xbox和Sony PlayStation游戏机中的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在PC集成GPU方面，AMD与NVIDIA大致相当，而INTC以大约68%的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：汤姆五金</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，NVIDIA以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD席卷了剩下的市场份额。NVIDIA的独立GPU可以说优于AMD的（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应该在这里寻找增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管AMD的EPYC服务器CPU产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但最初该公司依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代EPYC产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器CPU比该公司的其他产品提供了更好的利润率，因此向该领域的扩张应该有助于增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal&nbsp;to acquire&nbsp;Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD达成协议收购现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)芯片领域的领导者Xilinx(XLNX)。FPGA可用于多种应用。由于转向竞争对手的FPGA提供商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争对手的供应商。因此，如果Xilinx交易成功，AMD将获得一条宽阔的护城河业务。交易完成后18个月内运营效率约3亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购Xilinx应该会增强AMD的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD同意以350亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立GPU领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）独立GPU领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权许可，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，通过Turing发展到Ampere。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也存在于许多高端PC中，NVDA在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有优势。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to&nbsp;enhance&nbsp;computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to&nbsp;autonomous&nbsp;vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正与CPU结合使用，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达的发展优势。该公司崭露头角的另一个领域是云领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是NVDA最有可能的增长途径。为了加强其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以400亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了ARM Holdings(ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM是全球最大的芯片设计许可方。它的芯片无处不在，手机、智能电视、平板电脑都能找到。使用ARM设计制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，有1300万开发人员使用ARM设备。从背景来看，NVDA有200万开发人员在开发其设备系列。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和英国都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有前瞻性的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用图表来提供这三家公司的PEG比率。由于分析师的输入可能会导致PEG比率存在相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我希望读者能够访问多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的PEG，嘉信理财只是将其指标列为PEG比率，而雅虎！财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字中的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显NVDA是最被高估的。还值得注意的是，当前市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计显示AMD的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>我是一个非常重视股票PEG比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD的PEG是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，各来源的分析师计算出AMD的PEG比率均优于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要误解我的发现。虽然INTC在很多方面的估值较低，但考虑到其他因素，我对AMD的整体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方式来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA股价目前交易价格为202.95美元。33位分析师的平均12个月目标价为186.49美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的17名分析师的平均目标价为210.53美元，比该股当前价格高出约3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价目前交易价格为107.58美元。28位分析师的平均12个月目标价为108.56美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的11位分析师的平均目标价为117.27美元，比当前股价高出约9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为54.05美元。34位分析师的平均12个月目标价为59.86美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的16位分析师的平均目标价为58.97美元，较当前股价溢价9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，自NVDA公布季度收益而INTC和AMD最近公布季度收益以来，已经过去了近三个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表提供了增长率数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计INTC在增长方面的表现不如NVDA和AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于NVIDIA，有时甚至大幅领先。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，只要说每一个都是高利润就足够了，三者并置会导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供分解股息指标的比较，但AMD不支付股息，而NVDA的收益率也很低。INTC目前的收益率约为2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达拥有126.7亿美元现金，上季度末为59.6亿美元。如果ARM收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使400亿美元收购价格中的210亿美元将是股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD重组了债务，从而降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD拥有约38亿美元现金和3.13亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有强劲的财务状况。考虑到NVDA和AMD可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&amp;D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have&nbsp;compared&nbsp;the R&amp;D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次比较企业的研发预算进行正面对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&amp;D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔在研发上投入了超过135亿美元，NVDA花费了近28.3亿美元，AMD的研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&amp;D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，而且这种劣势被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。应该指出的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了其代工业务。尽管如此，它是这里明显的赢家，AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&amp;D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我应该补充一点，NVDA正在蚕食AMD在独立GPU市场的份额，我相信这种趋势将继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：最好的芯片股是哪只？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于ARM处理器比x86芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔大约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能对INTC来说是一个阻力，对NVDA来说是一个积极的因素。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its&nbsp;planned&nbsp;foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个应该权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场上与INTC持平。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD正在将独立GPU市场的份额输给NVDA。NVDA在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMD和NVDA被视为增长机器，但人们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上个季度增长了47%。Mobileye也出现了大幅增长，收入增长了124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，与英特尔185亿美元的总收入相比只是一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但是，请注意标题指的是“芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和预期增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于目前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级基于该股票的当前估值。我承认该公司堪称典范的领导力，并相信该股票的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我也将INTC评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将很好地为长期投资者服务，但我现在相信它的复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且会有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将AMD评级为买入。这是基于本文概述的当前估值和增长率。我要补充的是，这些指标得到了我的看法的支持，即随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD可能会蚕食市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA&nbsp;contributor&nbsp;Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>为了更多地了解投资AMD和INTC的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad74e350b9b09d45929989f896aaa9d","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138705612","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.\nAMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.\nEven so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.\nNvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.\n\nAndy/iStock via Getty Images\nIntel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.\nThis left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.\nAMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.\nHowever, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.\nThe Ins And Outs of Intel\nAn understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.\nConsequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.\nGaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.\nUntil fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.\nAt the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.\nDespite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.\nThe company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.\nInvestors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.\nHowever, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.\nIntel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.\nAn Overview of AMD\nIn years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.\nHowever, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nLike Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.\nAMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.\nIn regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.\nSource:tom'sHARDWARE\nHowever, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.\nAlthough AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.\nLate last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.\nThe Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.\nAMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.\nA Survey of NVIDIA\nNVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.\nThe chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.\nGPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud\nAI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.\nARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.\nPerhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.\nUnfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.\nHead-To-Head Comparisons\nValuation Metrics\nThe following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author\nNext, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.\nChart by author\nNote that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.\nPerusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.\nCount me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.\nDo not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.\n=Advantage AMD\nAnalysts’ Price Targets\nNVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.\nAMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.\nIntel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.\nInvestors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.\n=Tie AMD/INTC\nGrowth Rates\nThe next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author\nWhile investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.\nAdvanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.\n=Advantage AMD\nI considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.\nI often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.\nDebt Metrics\nNVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.\nAMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.\nIntel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.\nAll three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.\nR&D Budgets\nThis is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.\nLast fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.\nAMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.\nI should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.\n=Advantage INTC\nBottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?\nTo arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.\nBecause ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.\nThe degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.\nA development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.\nOn the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.\nWhile AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.\nHowever, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.\nWith that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.\nI also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.\nI rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.\nFor additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179000490,"gmtCreate":1626459576710,"gmtModify":1633926556728,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179000490","repostId":"1149577900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155964620,"gmtCreate":1625370113560,"gmtModify":1633941174705,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cyber companies will thrive","listText":"Cyber companies will thrive","text":"Cyber companies will thrive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155964620","repostId":"2148807114","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173665673,"gmtCreate":1626658070792,"gmtModify":1633925196313,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be wary when others are greedy","listText":"Be wary when others are greedy","text":"Be wary when others are greedy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173665673","repostId":"1123426523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123426523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626656489,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123426523?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨忽略了华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123426523","media":"WSJ","summary":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing inves","content":"<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流数据和期权活动显示，大大小小的投资者都异常乐观。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，使道琼斯工业平均指数在2021年健康上涨13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担的相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你时，是时候用这种思维方式寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在卖出时，你应该用双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经为留在牛群中带来了巨大的回报。这是一年来与屡试不爽的事实的最新背离，这一年已经导致模因股票飙升、木材价格创纪录以及面对通胀上升的债券市场反弹。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>Sundial Capital Research总裁Jason Goepfert表示：“我们举手已经有一段时间了。”“无论出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，这些指标之前都有非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始显示出情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪基本上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research可追溯到1951年的数据，截至3月底，美国人的股票配置达到了近60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫期间61.7%的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售券商E*Trade 7月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至65%。此外，今年早些时候，备受关注的股票看跌期权与看涨期权押注数量的衡量标准是今年早些时候创下了自2000年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年推动标普500创下39项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难预测。最值得注意的是，刺激和宽松货币政策的不同寻常且强有力的结合让投资者现金充裕，但稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的提振。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易者提供了足够的动力和机会来忽视情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例上升。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（或衡量有多少只股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约49%的股票交易价格高于50日移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前该指标相比出现了急剧逆转。达到90%以上。嘉信理财首席投资策略师利兹·安·桑德斯表示，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消，”桑德斯女士说。“但当广度开始恶化，市场仍处于或接近历史高点，并且情绪状况没有受到影响时，麻烦就真正酝酿了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，市场情绪可能会长期保持高位，就像20世纪90年代末那样。尽管主要股指上涨，但部分过剩股已经失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非营利科技公司和模因股票的大规模下跌，”桑德斯女士说。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于Ned Davis Research数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500在接下来的几年中平均往往会产生适度的回报。例如，当家庭的股票配置升至54.6%或更高时（就像互联网泡沫期间和2007-09年经济衰退前几年所做的那样），未来10年标普500的平均年化回报率为4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在29%或更低时，基准指数未来10年的平均年化回报率为16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特状况可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场只是在做自己的事情，”戈普弗特先生说。“有些事情已经发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激，还是年轻投资者的代际变化。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Record Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨忽略了华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRecord Stock Rally Ignores Wall Street’s Phobia About Optimism<blockquote>创纪录的股市上涨忽略了华尔街对乐观情绪的恐惧</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">WSJ</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.</p><p><blockquote>股市牛市的最新受害者是华尔街的格言，即投资者情绪高涨是卖出信号。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>整个2021年，一系列调查、资金流数据和期权活动显示，大大小小的投资者都异常乐观。然而，美国主要股指继续上涨至创纪录水平，使道琼斯工业平均指数在2021年健康上涨13%。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.</p><p><blockquote>分析师长期以来一直依赖情绪和风险承担的相关数据作为逆向指标。当朋友、同事和陌生人把钱投入股票并告诉你时，是时候用这种思维方式寻找掩护了。同样，当每个人都在卖出时，你应该用双手买入。</blockquote></p><p> But for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.</p><p><blockquote>但在今年的大部分时间里，它已经为留在牛群中带来了巨大的回报。这是一年来与屡试不爽的事实的最新背离，这一年已经导致模因股票飙升、木材价格创纪录以及面对通胀上升的债券市场反弹。简而言之，现在分析师和投资组合经理开始怀疑这次是否真的有所不同。</blockquote></p><p> “We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”</p><p><blockquote>Sundial Capital Research总裁Jason Goepfert表示：“我们举手已经有一段时间了。”“无论出于什么原因，市场只是在滚动所有这些历史指标，这些指标之前都有非常一致的记录。”</blockquote></p><p> In the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson &amp; Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.</p><p><blockquote>未来一周，交易员将分析新屋开工和建筑许可数据，以及强生公司和联合航空控股公司等公司的收益，以获取有关定价压力的进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> They will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.</p><p><blockquote>他们还将关注情绪是否波动。最近，一些指标开始显示出情绪减弱的迹象，尽管看涨情绪基本上仍高于或接近长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> Americans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.</p><p><blockquote>根据Ned Davis Research可追溯到1951年的数据，截至3月底，美国人的股票配置达到了近60%，这一数字略低于互联网泡沫期间61.7%的历史高点。</blockquote></p><p> A July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>零售券商E*Trade 7月份的一项调查发现，该平台个人投资者的看涨情绪最近创下了三年多来的新高，升至65%。此外，今年早些时候，备受关注的股票看跌期权与看涨期权押注数量的衡量标准是今年早些时候创下了自2000年以来从未有过的持续乐观水平。</blockquote></p><p> The source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&amp;P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.</p><p><blockquote>今年推动标普500创下39项纪录的乐观情绪的来源不难预测。最值得注意的是，刺激和宽松货币政策的不同寻常且强有力的结合让投资者现金充裕，但稳定的投资回报来源却很少。新一批零售商的进入也为价格提供了额外的提振。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这些因素的结合推高了市场，为交易者提供了足够的动力和机会来忽视情绪紧张的迹象，以及其他风险，包括通胀前景不明朗和冠状病毒病例上升。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>最近，市场广度（或衡量有多少只股票参与反弹的指标）已经恶化——尽管主要股指继续创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> As of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&amp;P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，截至周四，标普500只有约49%的股票交易价格高于50日移动平均线，这一水平低于平均水平，与几个月前该指标相比出现了急剧逆转。达到90%以上。嘉信理财首席投资策略师利兹·安·桑德斯表示，当市场情绪仍然如此高涨时，这是一个令人不安的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”</p><p><blockquote>“任何长期观察情绪的人都知道，广度是对极端情绪状况的积极抵消，”桑德斯女士说。“但当广度开始恶化，市场仍处于或接近历史高点，并且情绪状况没有受到影响时，麻烦就真正酝酿了。”</blockquote></p><p> But sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And&nbsp;while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.</p><p><blockquote>但她表示，市场情绪可能会长期保持高位，就像20世纪90年代末那样。尽管主要股指上涨，但部分过剩股已经失去了动力。</blockquote></p><p> “In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.</p><p><blockquote>“在投机猖獗的地方，你会看到加密货币、[特殊目的收购公司]、非营利科技公司和模因股票的大规模下跌，”桑德斯女士说。</blockquote></p><p> According a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&amp;P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&amp;P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.</p><p><blockquote>根据嘉信理财最近基于Ned Davis Research数据的一份报告，当美国家庭的股票持有量此前攀升至最高水平时，标普500在接下来的几年中平均往往会产生适度的回报。例如，当家庭的股票配置升至54.6%或更高时（就像互联网泡沫期间和2007-09年经济衰退前几年所做的那样），未来10年标普500的平均年化回报率为4.1%。</blockquote></p><p> In contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，当股票配置徘徊在29%或更低时，基准指数未来10年的平均年化回报率为16.3%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，今年市场的独特状况可能会让股市继续走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场只是在做自己的事情，”戈普弗特先生说。“有些事情已经发生了变化。无论是前所未有的刺激，还是年轻投资者的代际变化。这种新的市场热潮不断推动股市走高。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">WSJ</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","JNJ":"强生"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-stock-rally-ignores-wall-streets-phobia-about-optimism-11626600781?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123426523","content_text":"The latest victim of the rampaging bull market in stocks is the Wall Street maxim that glowing investor sentiment is a sell signal.\nThroughout 2021, a range of surveys, fund-flow figures and options activity have shown investors big and small to be exceptionally bullish. Yet major U.S. indexes continue to rally to records, putting the Dow Jones Industrial Average up a healthy 13% for 2021.\nAnalysts have long relied on sentiment and related data on risk-taking as contrarian indicators. By the time friends, colleagues and strangers are plowing money into stocks and telling you about it, it’s time to run for cover, to this way of thinking. Likewise, when everyone is selling, you should be buying with both hands.\nBut for much of this year, it has paid enormous dividends to stay with the herd. It’s the latest departure from the tried and true in a year that already has broughtsoaring meme stocks,record lumber pricesand a bond-market rally in the face of rising inflation. In short, now is when analysts and portfolio managers are starting to wonder whether it really is different this time.\n“We’ve been throwing up our hands for a while,” said Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research. “For whatever the reason, the market is just rolling over all these historical indicators that before had a very consistent track record.”\nIn the coming week, traders will parse data on housing starts and building permits, as well as earnings from companies including Johnson & Johnson andUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,for further clues about pricing pressures.\nThey will also be watching to see if sentiment oscillates. Recently, signs of waning sentiment have begun peeking through some indicators, though bullishness largely remains above or near long-term averages.\nAmericans’ stock allocations reached nearly 60% at the end of March, a figure just below the all-time high of 61.7% reached during the dot-com bubble, according to data from Ned Davis Research stretching back to 1951.\nA July survey by retail brokerage E*Trade found that bullishness among the platform’s individual investors recently hit more than a three-year high, rising to 65%. Additionally, the often-watched equity put-call ratio—which measures the volume of bearish options bets placed on stocks versus bullish ones—earlier this year notched sustained levels of optimism not seen since 2000.\nThe source of the optimism that has fueled 39 records this year on the S&P 500 isn’t hard to divine. Most notably, there’s an unusual and powerful blend of stimulus and easy monetary policy that has left investors flush with cash and with few sources of steady investment returns. The entrance ofa new cohort of retail tradershas provided an extra boost to prices, too.\nAnalysts say the combination of those factors has pushed markets higher, providing traders with enough momentum and opportunity to ignore signs of stretched sentiment—as well as other risks, including an unclear inflation outlook andrising coronavirus cases.\nRecently, market breadth, or a measure of how many stocks are participating in a rally, has deteriorated—even as major indexes have continued to hit all-time highs.\nAs of Thursday, only about 49% of stocks in the S&P 500 traded above their 50-day moving averages, according to FactSet, a level that is below average and one that is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, whenthat metric reached more than 90%. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, that’s a troubling sign when sentiment remains so high.\n“Any longtime sentiment watcher knows that breadth is a positive offset to extreme sentiment conditions,” Ms. Sonders said. “But when breadth starts to deteriorate and the market is still trading at or near all-time highs, and there’s been no dent to sentiment conditions, that’s when trouble really brews.”\nBut sentiment can remain elevated for long periods, as it did in the late 1990s, she said. And while major indexes have risen, pockets of excess have lost steam.\n“In places where speculation has been rampant, you have seen massive drawdowns—in cryptocurrencies, [special-purpose acquisition companies], nonprofitable tech companies and meme stocks,” Ms. Sonders said.\nAccording a recent Charles Schwab note based on data from Ned Davis Research, when stockholdings among U.S. households have previously climbed to among the highest levels, the S&P 500 has tended to produce modest returns on average in following years. For example, when households’ stock allocations have risen to 54.6% or higher—as they did during the dot-com bubble and the years leading up to the 2007-09 recession—the average annualized return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years has been 4.1%.\nIn contrast, when stock allocations have hovered around 29% or lower, the average annualized return over the next 10 years for the benchmark index has been 16.3%.\nEven so, unique conditions within the market this year might allow stocks to keep grinding higher.\n“Markets are just doing their own thing,” Mr. Goepfert said. “Something has changed. Whether it’s unprecedented stimulus or maybe there is this generational change with young investors. This new surge into the market keeps driving stocks higher.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JNJ":0.9,"UAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818332217,"gmtCreate":1630375123739,"gmtModify":1704959324251,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Often the forgotten tiger","listText":"Often the forgotten tiger","text":"Often the forgotten tiger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818332217","repostId":"1118040595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147409733,"gmtCreate":1626369645122,"gmtModify":1633927398297,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oil will rise&nbsp;","listText":"Oil will rise&nbsp;","text":"Oil will rise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147409733","repostId":"1165694388","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125624268,"gmtCreate":1624672473654,"gmtModify":1633949800059,"author":{"id":"3581588580582295","authorId":"3581588580582295","name":"ccwak","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2c4dcd8ddd9252c9df87157a3c16580","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588580582295","authorIdStr":"3581588580582295"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125624268","repostId":"1177764085","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}