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Kelvin17

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2021-11-22

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盘前：融资20亿美元“补血”！蔚来涨近5%

2021-10-28

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昨夜今晨：标普道指终结连涨势头，科技股独秀美股

2021-10-04

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前瞻：9月非农数据来袭！谭仔国际将于周四上市

2021-09-06

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2021-08-11

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Coinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote>

2021-08-10

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2021-08-05

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2021-08-04

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2021-07-28

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2021-07-22

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2021-07-05

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Why Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote>

2021-07-03

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2021-06-23

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2021-06-21

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Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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Tesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote>

2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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2021-06-15

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2021-06-14

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2021-06-10

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and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875996014","repostId":"1174036339","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174036339","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637585231,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174036339?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 20:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"盘前：融资20亿美元“补血”！蔚来涨近5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174036339","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月22日，美股三大股指期货涨幅收窄，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.24%；标普500指数期货涨0.29%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.4%\n\n盘前行情\n特斯拉盘前涨超2%，马斯克表示大约将于明年三月在中","content":"<p>11月22日，美股三大股指期货涨幅收窄，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.24%；标普500指数期货涨0.29%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.4%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a02f03d5065b88b1353497597280f2\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨超2%，马斯克表示大约将于明年三月在中国推出Model S Plaid；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>盘前跌逾4%，与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>取消联合开发电动汽车的计划；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">格芯</a>盘前涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>此前宣布将与格芯合作开发车载芯片；</p>\n<p>全球云通信供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VG\">Vonage</a>盘前涨超25%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>盘前跌超4%；消息面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>将以62亿美元收购全球云通信供应商 Vonage；</p>\n<p>卫星发射服务公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>盘前涨超36%，消息面上，该公司LV0007火箭11月20日发射升空，这是该公司火箭首次成功进入目标轨道；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRNC\">Cerence</a>盘前跌超6%，第四季度净利润同比减少；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近5%，消息面上，蔚来宣布完成增发5329万股ADS，募资20亿美元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>盘前涨超2%，公司主席俞敏洪此前增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>142.9万股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>盘前涨超4%，以约1.18亿元收购持牌支付机构浙江甬易电子支付有限公司65.5%的股权，成为控股方，正式获得支付牌照；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>盘前一度涨近10%，现涨7.46%，第三季度平均月活跃用户增长40.1%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>盘前跌超4%，Q3净利润及营收不及预期；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">和黄医药</a>盘前涨超7%，CSF-1R抑制剂HMPL-653胶囊在国内获批临床；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨超11%，公司宣布收到以每股6.89美元收购该公司的初步非约束性提案。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指多数转跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.1%，英国富时100跌0.01%、法国CAC40跌0.11%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e64b9a64d34a5228cd0e6b8ce8e24a\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货由涨转跌，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.09%，报75.87美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.16%，报78.76美元/桶。</p>\n<p>美国原油价格自一个半月低位暂时企稳，市场预计油价短线仍然承压，似乎不会有太大缓解。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b397d360c757bca47d364929a0135bb8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b8f9f26ebed32be13cc683c930fe7df\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货小幅走低，截止发稿，跌0.5%，报1842.4美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>由于美国感恩节假期预计交易清淡，且本周面临数项风险虽然对金价前景相对乐观，但分析师预计，本周黄金市场将面临较大波动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4629833b739f9b6677ef0bb20bbdf15f\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前：融资20亿美元“补血”！蔚来涨近5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前：融资20亿美元“补血”！蔚来涨近5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-22 20:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月22日，美股三大股指期货涨幅收窄，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.24%；标普500指数期货涨0.29%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.4%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a02f03d5065b88b1353497597280f2\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>盘前行情</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨超2%，马斯克表示大约将于明年三月在中国推出Model S Plaid；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">Rivian</a>盘前跌逾4%，与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>取消联合开发电动汽车的计划；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">格芯</a>盘前涨近4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>此前宣布将与格芯合作开发车载芯片；</p>\n<p>全球云通信供应商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VG\">Vonage</a>盘前涨超25%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>盘前跌超4%；消息面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>将以62亿美元收购全球云通信供应商 Vonage；</p>\n<p>卫星发射服务公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASTR\">Astra Space</a>盘前涨超36%，消息面上，该公司LV0007火箭11月20日发射升空，这是该公司火箭首次成功进入目标轨道；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRNC\">Cerence</a>盘前跌超6%，第四季度净利润同比减少；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近5%，消息面上，蔚来宣布完成增发5329万股ADS，募资20亿美元；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>盘前涨超2%，公司主席俞敏洪此前增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>142.9万股；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>盘前涨超4%，以约1.18亿元收购持牌支付机构浙江甬易电子支付有限公司65.5%的股权，成为控股方，正式获得支付牌照；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>盘前一度涨近10%，现涨7.46%，第三季度平均月活跃用户增长40.1%；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>盘前跌超4%，Q3净利润及营收不及预期；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCM\">和黄医药</a>盘前涨超7%，CSF-1R抑制剂HMPL-653胶囊在国内获批临床；</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">新氧</a>盘前涨超11%，公司宣布收到以每股6.89美元收购该公司的初步非约束性提案。</p>\n<p><b>欧洲市场</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要股指多数转跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.1%，英国富时100跌0.01%、法国CAC40跌0.11%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e64b9a64d34a5228cd0e6b8ce8e24a\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货由涨转跌，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.09%，报75.87美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.16%，报78.76美元/桶。</p>\n<p>美国原油价格自一个半月低位暂时企稳，市场预计油价短线仍然承压，似乎不会有太大缓解。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b397d360c757bca47d364929a0135bb8\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b8f9f26ebed32be13cc683c930fe7df\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货小幅走低，截止发稿，跌0.5%，报1842.4美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>由于美国感恩节假期预计交易清淡，且本周面临数项风险虽然对金价前景相对乐观，但分析师预计，本周黄金市场将面临较大波动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4629833b739f9b6677ef0bb20bbdf15f\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CRNC":"Cerence Inc.","SY":"新氧","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174036339","content_text":"11月22日，美股三大股指期货涨幅收窄，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.24%；标普500指数期货涨0.29%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.4%\n\n盘前行情\n特斯拉盘前涨超2%，马斯克表示大约将于明年三月在中国推出Model S Plaid；\nRivian盘前跌逾4%，与福特汽车取消联合开发电动汽车的计划；\n格芯盘前涨近4%，福特汽车此前宣布将与格芯合作开发车载芯片；\n全球云通信供应商Vonage盘前涨超25%，爱立信盘前跌超4%；消息面，爱立信将以62亿美元收购全球云通信供应商 Vonage；\n卫星发射服务公司Astra Space盘前涨超36%，消息面上，该公司LV0007火箭11月20日发射升空，这是该公司火箭首次成功进入目标轨道；\nCerence盘前跌超6%，第四季度净利润同比减少；\n蔚来涨近5%，消息面上，蔚来宣布完成增发5329万股ADS，募资20亿美元；\n新东方盘前涨超2%，公司主席俞敏洪此前增持新东方在线142.9万股；\n哔哩哔哩盘前涨超4%，以约1.18亿元收购持牌支付机构浙江甬易电子支付有限公司65.5%的股权，成为控股方，正式获得支付牌照；\n知乎盘前一度涨近10%，现涨7.46%，第三季度平均月活跃用户增长40.1%；\n小牛电动盘前跌超4%，Q3净利润及营收不及预期；\n和黄医药盘前涨超7%，CSF-1R抑制剂HMPL-653胶囊在国内获批临床；\n新氧盘前涨超11%，公司宣布收到以每股6.89美元收购该公司的初步非约束性提案。\n欧洲市场\n欧洲主要股指多数转跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌0.1%，英国富时100跌0.01%、法国CAC40跌0.11%。\n\n原油\n原油期货由涨转跌，截止发稿，WTI原油跌0.09%，报75.87美元/桶；布伦特原油跌0.16%，报78.76美元/桶。\n美国原油价格自一个半月低位暂时企稳，市场预计油价短线仍然承压，似乎不会有太大缓解。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货小幅走低，截止发稿，跌0.5%，报1842.4美元/盎司。\n由于美国感恩节假期预计交易清淡，且本周面临数项风险虽然对金价前景相对乐观，但分析师预计，本周黄金市场将面临较大波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SY":0.9,"CRNC":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2073,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855469229,"gmtCreate":1635391436685,"gmtModify":1635391436800,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855469229","repostId":"1173077669","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173077669","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635379358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173077669?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 08:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：标普道指终结连涨势头，科技股独秀美股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173077669","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①财报季涨势开始消退，美股从纪录高位回落；②热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑；③又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了；④鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，黄金短线一度下跌","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：①财报季涨势开始消退，美股从纪录高位回落；②热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑；③又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了；④鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，黄金短线一度下跌20加元。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、财报季涨势开始消退 美股从纪录高位回落</p>\n<p>标准普尔500指数从纪录高位回落，因强劲财报季的动能开始消退。受<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet公布季度业绩后上涨的提振，纳斯达克指数收盘变动不大，但油价下跌和美债收益率回落令周期性类股承压，并拉低标准普尔500指数。道琼斯指数下0.74%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.51%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.12点，或持平。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周三收盘多数走低 区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑</p>\n<p>热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑。乐居涨超20%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">普普文化</a>涨近16%，触宝涨超15%，一起教育涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JOBS\">前程无忧</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、途牛涨超1%。</p>\n<p>3、欧洲央行会议在即大盘走低</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周三下滑，矿业股领跌，而喜忧参半的第三季度企业财报让投资者心神不定。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌1.50点，跌幅0.32%，报474.24点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌54.46点，跌幅0.35%，报15702.60点。</p>\n<p>4、美国原油供应增长超预期 伊朗石油重返市场前景乐观 油价大幅下跌</p>\n<p>周三美国原油库存增幅超过预期，伊朗和欧盟同意在下个月底前重启2015年核协议的谈判后，油价进一步下跌。这表明伊朗石油重返市场的前景更大。截至发稿，美国WTI原油11月期货下跌250美分，跌幅2.95%，报82.15美元/桶；布伦特12月期货下跌203美分，涨幅2.37%，报83.62美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、加央行放“鹰”一度吓坏黄金 两大利好挽救多头于水火之中</p>\n<p>加拿大央行周三结束了量化宽松政策，同时维持了关键利率不变。以加元计价的黄金价格出现了两位数的下跌，短线一度下跌20加元，跌幅达近1%。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1796.48美元/盎司，上涨3.90美元或0.22%，盘中最高触及1799.00美元，最低触及1783.37美元。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、美参议院拟出台法案限制联储官员交易活动 违者将面临罚款</p>\n<p>据媒体周三报道，违反限制交易活动的拟议法律的美联储官员将面临至少10%投资金额的罚款。美国民主党参议员Sherrod Brown公布的一项参议院法案中包含了这些处罚，他此前曾表示，计划通过立法来收紧美联储的道德标准。</p>\n<p>2、重要议员反对，又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了</p>\n<p>美国众议院民主党周一发布了增税方案，公布了民主党酝酿的一系列以填补3.5万亿美元的预算空缺加税措施。方案中并未提及拜登对富豪在世时持有的升值资产征收资本利得税的提议，但共和党人，甚至是一些民主党人，都对该提案表示担忧。</p>\n<p>据最新消息，众议院筹款委员会主席理查德·尼尔 Richard Neal 对本周三众议院在与参议院讨论的对收入超过 1000 万美元的人征收 3% 的附加税这一议题作出正式官宣——富豪税正式取消。</p>\n<p>3、巴西央行加息150个基点至7.75% 预计下月将继续加息</p>\n<p>巴西央行周三上调基准贷款利率150个基点至7.75%，并预计下次会议将有同样幅度的加息。巴西央行表示，加息决议是一致通过的。12月份若再加息150个基点，那将是适宜的。巴西央行称，就巴西面临的通胀形势而言，当前的加息速度是适宜的。刺激计划造成财政政策轨迹恶化的风险，还可能推高风险溢价。</p>\n<p>4、意外！鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，提前加息指引至明年中期</p>\n<p>被称为发达经济体最鹰派“央妈”之一的加拿大央行宣布货币政策决议，维持基准利率在0.25%的有效下限不变，彻底结束QE量宽买债，并将加息预期提前至最早明年二季度。加拿大央行称，结束QE后会进入再投资阶段，期间仅购买足够多的加拿大政府债券来替代已经到期的持债，保持对加拿大国债的总体持有量大致不变，而不再印发新钱“放水”来净购买新债。</p>\n<p>5、美民主党急为拜登欧洲行“充值”，外媒：此行对拜登不是“罗马假日”，也避不开国内矛盾的“幽灵”</p>\n<p>美国总统拜登28日将启程前往欧洲，参加二十国集团（G20）峰会和联合国气候变化大会。为了在这两个国际会议上证明“美国回来了”以及华盛顿在应对气候变化方面的“领导者”地位，民主党正马不停蹄地为总统“充值”，希望在拜登出发前，就包含应对气候变化条款的社会支出法案达成协议。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178234587\" target=\"_blank\">通用汽车CEO：电动汽车销量到2025年“绝对”能赶上特斯拉</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>首席执行官兼董事长Mary Barra周三表示，到2025年，通用汽车在美国电动汽车销量方面“绝对”能赶上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.O)。Barra表示，我们即将推出GMC悍马皮卡、凯迪拉克Lyriq以及雪佛兰跨界车等车型并继续努力，直到我们在电动汽车领域占有有第一名的市场份额。特斯拉在美国电动汽车销售多年占据主导地位后，目前市场份额正在下降。IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>预计，特斯拉在美国电动汽车的市场份额将从去年的79%下降到今年的56%。随着通用汽车等大型汽车制造商发布大量新车型，特斯拉的市场份额预计将在2025年继续下降至20%。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178230896\" target=\"_blank\">福特三季度财报超预期 再度上调年度盈利指引 股价盘后大涨6%</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周三盘后公布了该公司三季度财报，盈利大幅超出华尔街预期，并第二次上调年度指引。财报显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>三季度调整后每股收益51美分，市场预期27美分；营收同比下降5%至332.1亿美元，市场预期325.4亿美元。该汽车制造商新的全年调整后盈利指引为105亿-115亿美元，高于此前的90亿-100亿美元。</p>\n<p>福特汽车表示，芯片供应短缺问题可能会持续至2023年。福特汽车在发布财报前被华尔街分析师看好，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>将该股表现从中性上调至跑赢大盘。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178367552\" target=\"_blank\">经济重启助推可口可乐Q3净利大增42%，再次上调业绩指引</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>于10月27日美股盘前公布2021年三季度业绩，营收和净利润都超出市场共识预期，三季度以来经济重启的提振和该公司在数字化转型的努力都提振了销售。根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100.4亿美元，同比增加16%，市场预期97.5亿美元；实现利润24.75亿美元，可比每股净利润65美分，同比增加18%，市场预期58美分。</p>\n<p>可口可乐公司董事会主席兼首席执行官詹鲲杰表示，“我们正上调全年业绩指引，以准确反映业务的良好增长势头。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>日前给予可口可乐“买入”评级，预计可口可乐EPS将在2022年实现7-9%的增长。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178031237\" target=\"_blank\">eBay第三季度营收亿25.01美元 净利同比降53%</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>发布了2021年第三季度财报。报告显示，eBay第三季度净营收为25.01亿美元，与去年同期的22.58亿美元相比增长11%；来自于持续运营业务的净利润为2.83亿美元，与去年同期的6.05亿美元相比下降53%；不按照美国通用会计准则，eBay第三季度来自于持续运营业务的净利润为5.91亿美元，与去年同期的5.84亿美元相比增长1%。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178239820\" target=\"_blank\">消息称印度支付巨头Paytm下月IPO 寻求200亿美元估值</a></p>\n<p>据报道，知情人士今日称，印度支付巨头Paytm将于下月IPO（首次公开招股），目前正寻求约200亿美元的估值。</p>\n<p>该知情人士称，Paytm将把IPO的发行价区间定在每股2080卢比至2150卢比之间，预计将于11月8日挂牌交易。Paytm的目标是通过此次IPO筹集至多1830亿卢比（约合24亿美元），较之前的目标高出约10%。</p>\n<p>上周五有报道称，Paytm的IPO计划已经获得印度证券交易委员会（SEBI）的批准。Paytm最多将发行830亿卢比（约合11亿美元）的新股。此外，软银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦等现有股东将出售价值约830亿卢比的股票，总计约1660亿卢比（约合22亿美元）。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1155018348\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉“大多头”Baron：在这只票上已经赚60亿美元 准备再拿十年</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周三早晨，知名投资人Ron Baron接受媒体采访时再度表达了对电动车龙头的信心，同时抨击了民主党新鲜出炉的“亿万富翁税”提案。</p>\n<p>根据2020年年报，Baron基金是特斯拉第十二大机构股东，总共持有近600万股特斯拉股票。截至周三开盘，特斯拉股价继续维持在1000美元上方，而Ron Baron的持股成本仅为42.88美元/股。此外，Baron基金也是Space X的私募股权投资人。</p>\n<p>Ron Baron在周三公开算了笔账，称公司成立至今总共帮投资者赚了540亿美元的利润，其中有60亿美元来自特斯拉，7、8年前买入时成本仅为3.8亿美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：标普道指终结连涨势头，科技股独秀美股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：标普道指终结连涨势头，科技股独秀美股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-28 08:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 摘要：①财报季涨势开始消退，美股从纪录高位回落；②热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑；③又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了；④鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，黄金短线一度下跌20加元。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、财报季涨势开始消退 美股从纪录高位回落</p>\n<p>标准普尔500指数从纪录高位回落，因强劲财报季的动能开始消退。受<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet公布季度业绩后上涨的提振，纳斯达克指数收盘变动不大，但油价下跌和美债收益率回落令周期性类股承压，并拉低标准普尔500指数。道琼斯指数下0.74%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.51%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.12点，或持平。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周三收盘多数走低 区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑</p>\n<p>热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑。乐居涨超20%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPOP\">普普文化</a>涨近16%，触宝涨超15%，一起教育涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">晶科能源</a>涨近7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JOBS\">前程无忧</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、途牛涨超1%。</p>\n<p>3、欧洲央行会议在即大盘走低</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周三下滑，矿业股领跌，而喜忧参半的第三季度企业财报让投资者心神不定。</p>\n<p>泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌1.50点，跌幅0.32%，报474.24点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌54.46点，跌幅0.35%，报15702.60点。</p>\n<p>4、美国原油供应增长超预期 伊朗石油重返市场前景乐观 油价大幅下跌</p>\n<p>周三美国原油库存增幅超过预期，伊朗和欧盟同意在下个月底前重启2015年核协议的谈判后，油价进一步下跌。这表明伊朗石油重返市场的前景更大。截至发稿，美国WTI原油11月期货下跌250美分，跌幅2.95%，报82.15美元/桶；布伦特12月期货下跌203美分，涨幅2.37%，报83.62美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、加央行放“鹰”一度吓坏黄金 两大利好挽救多头于水火之中</p>\n<p>加拿大央行周三结束了量化宽松政策，同时维持了关键利率不变。以加元计价的黄金价格出现了两位数的下跌，短线一度下跌20加元，跌幅达近1%。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1796.48美元/盎司，上涨3.90美元或0.22%，盘中最高触及1799.00美元，最低触及1783.37美元。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、美参议院拟出台法案限制联储官员交易活动 违者将面临罚款</p>\n<p>据媒体周三报道，违反限制交易活动的拟议法律的美联储官员将面临至少10%投资金额的罚款。美国民主党参议员Sherrod Brown公布的一项参议院法案中包含了这些处罚，他此前曾表示，计划通过立法来收紧美联储的道德标准。</p>\n<p>2、重要议员反对，又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了</p>\n<p>美国众议院民主党周一发布了增税方案，公布了民主党酝酿的一系列以填补3.5万亿美元的预算空缺加税措施。方案中并未提及拜登对富豪在世时持有的升值资产征收资本利得税的提议，但共和党人，甚至是一些民主党人，都对该提案表示担忧。</p>\n<p>据最新消息，众议院筹款委员会主席理查德·尼尔 Richard Neal 对本周三众议院在与参议院讨论的对收入超过 1000 万美元的人征收 3% 的附加税这一议题作出正式官宣——富豪税正式取消。</p>\n<p>3、巴西央行加息150个基点至7.75% 预计下月将继续加息</p>\n<p>巴西央行周三上调基准贷款利率150个基点至7.75%，并预计下次会议将有同样幅度的加息。巴西央行表示，加息决议是一致通过的。12月份若再加息150个基点，那将是适宜的。巴西央行称，就巴西面临的通胀形势而言，当前的加息速度是适宜的。刺激计划造成财政政策轨迹恶化的风险，还可能推高风险溢价。</p>\n<p>4、意外！鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，提前加息指引至明年中期</p>\n<p>被称为发达经济体最鹰派“央妈”之一的加拿大央行宣布货币政策决议，维持基准利率在0.25%的有效下限不变，彻底结束QE量宽买债，并将加息预期提前至最早明年二季度。加拿大央行称，结束QE后会进入再投资阶段，期间仅购买足够多的加拿大政府债券来替代已经到期的持债，保持对加拿大国债的总体持有量大致不变，而不再印发新钱“放水”来净购买新债。</p>\n<p>5、美民主党急为拜登欧洲行“充值”，外媒：此行对拜登不是“罗马假日”，也避不开国内矛盾的“幽灵”</p>\n<p>美国总统拜登28日将启程前往欧洲，参加二十国集团（G20）峰会和联合国气候变化大会。为了在这两个国际会议上证明“美国回来了”以及华盛顿在应对气候变化方面的“领导者”地位，民主党正马不停蹄地为总统“充值”，希望在拜登出发前，就包含应对气候变化条款的社会支出法案达成协议。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178234587\" target=\"_blank\">通用汽车CEO：电动汽车销量到2025年“绝对”能赶上特斯拉</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>首席执行官兼董事长Mary Barra周三表示，到2025年，通用汽车在美国电动汽车销量方面“绝对”能赶上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.O)。Barra表示，我们即将推出GMC悍马皮卡、凯迪拉克Lyriq以及雪佛兰跨界车等车型并继续努力，直到我们在电动汽车领域占有有第一名的市场份额。特斯拉在美国电动汽车销售多年占据主导地位后，目前市场份额正在下降。IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>预计，特斯拉在美国电动汽车的市场份额将从去年的79%下降到今年的56%。随着通用汽车等大型汽车制造商发布大量新车型，特斯拉的市场份额预计将在2025年继续下降至20%。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178230896\" target=\"_blank\">福特三季度财报超预期 再度上调年度盈利指引 股价盘后大涨6%</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>周三盘后公布了该公司三季度财报，盈利大幅超出华尔街预期，并第二次上调年度指引。财报显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>三季度调整后每股收益51美分，市场预期27美分；营收同比下降5%至332.1亿美元，市场预期325.4亿美元。该汽车制造商新的全年调整后盈利指引为105亿-115亿美元，高于此前的90亿-100亿美元。</p>\n<p>福特汽车表示，芯片供应短缺问题可能会持续至2023年。福特汽车在发布财报前被华尔街分析师看好，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>将该股表现从中性上调至跑赢大盘。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178367552\" target=\"_blank\">经济重启助推可口可乐Q3净利大增42%，再次上调业绩指引</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>于10月27日美股盘前公布2021年三季度业绩，营收和净利润都超出市场共识预期，三季度以来经济重启的提振和该公司在数字化转型的努力都提振了销售。根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100.4亿美元，同比增加16%，市场预期97.5亿美元；实现利润24.75亿美元，可比每股净利润65美分，同比增加18%，市场预期58美分。</p>\n<p>可口可乐公司董事会主席兼首席执行官詹鲲杰表示，“我们正上调全年业绩指引，以准确反映业务的良好增长势头。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>日前给予可口可乐“买入”评级，预计可口可乐EPS将在2022年实现7-9%的增长。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178031237\" target=\"_blank\">eBay第三季度营收亿25.01美元 净利同比降53%</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>发布了2021年第三季度财报。报告显示，eBay第三季度净营收为25.01亿美元，与去年同期的22.58亿美元相比增长11%；来自于持续运营业务的净利润为2.83亿美元，与去年同期的6.05亿美元相比下降53%；不按照美国通用会计准则，eBay第三季度来自于持续运营业务的净利润为5.91亿美元，与去年同期的5.84亿美元相比增长1%。</p>\n<p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2178239820\" target=\"_blank\">消息称印度支付巨头Paytm下月IPO 寻求200亿美元估值</a></p>\n<p>据报道，知情人士今日称，印度支付巨头Paytm将于下月IPO（首次公开招股），目前正寻求约200亿美元的估值。</p>\n<p>该知情人士称，Paytm将把IPO的发行价区间定在每股2080卢比至2150卢比之间，预计将于11月8日挂牌交易。Paytm的目标是通过此次IPO筹集至多1830亿卢比（约合24亿美元），较之前的目标高出约10%。</p>\n<p>上周五有报道称，Paytm的IPO计划已经获得印度证券交易委员会（SEBI）的批准。Paytm最多将发行830亿卢比（约合11亿美元）的新股。此外，软银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦等现有股东将出售价值约830亿卢比的股票，总计约1660亿卢比（约合22亿美元）。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1155018348\" target=\"_blank\">特斯拉“大多头”Baron：在这只票上已经赚60亿美元 准备再拿十年</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周三早晨，知名投资人Ron Baron接受媒体采访时再度表达了对电动车龙头的信心，同时抨击了民主党新鲜出炉的“亿万富翁税”提案。</p>\n<p>根据2020年年报，Baron基金是特斯拉第十二大机构股东，总共持有近600万股特斯拉股票。截至周三开盘，特斯拉股价继续维持在1000美元上方，而Ron Baron的持股成本仅为42.88美元/股。此外，Baron基金也是Space X的私募股权投资人。</p>\n<p>Ron Baron在周三公开算了笔账，称公司成立至今总共帮投资者赚了540亿美元的利润，其中有60亿美元来自特斯拉，7、8年前买入时成本仅为3.8亿美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173077669","content_text":"摘要：①财报季涨势开始消退，美股从纪录高位回落；②热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑；③又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了；④鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，黄金短线一度下跌20加元。\n\n海外市场\n1、财报季涨势开始消退 美股从纪录高位回落\n标准普尔500指数从纪录高位回落，因强劲财报季的动能开始消退。受微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet公布季度业绩后上涨的提振，纳斯达克指数收盘变动不大，但油价下跌和美债收益率回落令周期性类股承压，并拉低标准普尔500指数。道琼斯指数下0.74%，标准普尔500指数下跌0.51%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.12点，或持平。\n2、热门中概股周三收盘多数走低 区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑\n热门中概股周三收盘多数走低，区块链概念、教育股普遍下滑。乐居涨超20%，普普文化涨近16%，触宝涨超15%，一起教育涨超11%，晶科能源涨近7%，前程无忧、网易、途牛涨超1%。\n3、欧洲央行会议在即大盘走低\n欧洲股市周三下滑，矿业股领跌，而喜忧参半的第三季度企业财报让投资者心神不定。\n泛欧斯托克600指数收盘下跌1.50点，跌幅0.32%，报474.24点；德国DAX30指数收盘下跌54.46点，跌幅0.35%，报15702.60点。\n4、美国原油供应增长超预期 伊朗石油重返市场前景乐观 油价大幅下跌\n周三美国原油库存增幅超过预期，伊朗和欧盟同意在下个月底前重启2015年核协议的谈判后，油价进一步下跌。这表明伊朗石油重返市场的前景更大。截至发稿，美国WTI原油11月期货下跌250美分，跌幅2.95%，报82.15美元/桶；布伦特12月期货下跌203美分，涨幅2.37%，报83.62美元/桶。\n5、加央行放“鹰”一度吓坏黄金 两大利好挽救多头于水火之中\n加拿大央行周三结束了量化宽松政策，同时维持了关键利率不变。以加元计价的黄金价格出现了两位数的下跌，短线一度下跌20加元，跌幅达近1%。\n美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1796.48美元/盎司，上涨3.90美元或0.22%，盘中最高触及1799.00美元，最低触及1783.37美元。\n国际宏观\n1、美参议院拟出台法案限制联储官员交易活动 违者将面临罚款\n据媒体周三报道，违反限制交易活动的拟议法律的美联储官员将面临至少10%投资金额的罚款。美国民主党参议员Sherrod Brown公布的一项参议院法案中包含了这些处罚，他此前曾表示，计划通过立法来收紧美联储的道德标准。\n2、重要议员反对，又一加税途径被否，美国富豪税要流产了\n美国众议院民主党周一发布了增税方案，公布了民主党酝酿的一系列以填补3.5万亿美元的预算空缺加税措施。方案中并未提及拜登对富豪在世时持有的升值资产征收资本利得税的提议，但共和党人，甚至是一些民主党人，都对该提案表示担忧。\n据最新消息，众议院筹款委员会主席理查德·尼尔 Richard Neal 对本周三众议院在与参议院讨论的对收入超过 1000 万美元的人征收 3% 的附加税这一议题作出正式官宣——富豪税正式取消。\n3、巴西央行加息150个基点至7.75% 预计下月将继续加息\n巴西央行周三上调基准贷款利率150个基点至7.75%，并预计下次会议将有同样幅度的加息。巴西央行表示，加息决议是一致通过的。12月份若再加息150个基点，那将是适宜的。巴西央行称，就巴西面临的通胀形势而言，当前的加息速度是适宜的。刺激计划造成财政政策轨迹恶化的风险，还可能推高风险溢价。\n4、意外！鹰派“央妈”加拿大央行宣布结束QE，提前加息指引至明年中期\n被称为发达经济体最鹰派“央妈”之一的加拿大央行宣布货币政策决议，维持基准利率在0.25%的有效下限不变，彻底结束QE量宽买债，并将加息预期提前至最早明年二季度。加拿大央行称，结束QE后会进入再投资阶段，期间仅购买足够多的加拿大政府债券来替代已经到期的持债，保持对加拿大国债的总体持有量大致不变，而不再印发新钱“放水”来净购买新债。\n5、美民主党急为拜登欧洲行“充值”，外媒：此行对拜登不是“罗马假日”，也避不开国内矛盾的“幽灵”\n美国总统拜登28日将启程前往欧洲，参加二十国集团（G20）峰会和联合国气候变化大会。为了在这两个国际会议上证明“美国回来了”以及华盛顿在应对气候变化方面的“领导者”地位，民主党正马不停蹄地为总统“充值”，希望在拜登出发前，就包含应对气候变化条款的社会支出法案达成协议。\n公司新闻\n1、通用汽车CEO：电动汽车销量到2025年“绝对”能赶上特斯拉\n通用汽车首席执行官兼董事长Mary Barra周三表示，到2025年，通用汽车在美国电动汽车销量方面“绝对”能赶上特斯拉(TSLA.O)。Barra表示，我们即将推出GMC悍马皮卡、凯迪拉克Lyriq以及雪佛兰跨界车等车型并继续努力，直到我们在电动汽车领域占有有第一名的市场份额。特斯拉在美国电动汽车销售多年占据主导地位后，目前市场份额正在下降。IHS Markit预计，特斯拉在美国电动汽车的市场份额将从去年的79%下降到今年的56%。随着通用汽车等大型汽车制造商发布大量新车型，特斯拉的市场份额预计将在2025年继续下降至20%。\n2、福特三季度财报超预期 再度上调年度盈利指引 股价盘后大涨6%\n福特汽车周三盘后公布了该公司三季度财报，盈利大幅超出华尔街预期，并第二次上调年度指引。财报显示，福特汽车三季度调整后每股收益51美分，市场预期27美分；营收同比下降5%至332.1亿美元，市场预期325.4亿美元。该汽车制造商新的全年调整后盈利指引为105亿-115亿美元，高于此前的90亿-100亿美元。\n福特汽车表示，芯片供应短缺问题可能会持续至2023年。福特汽车在发布财报前被华尔街分析师看好，其中包括瑞士信贷将该股表现从中性上调至跑赢大盘。\n3、经济重启助推可口可乐Q3净利大增42%，再次上调业绩指引\n可口可乐于10月27日美股盘前公布2021年三季度业绩，营收和净利润都超出市场共识预期，三季度以来经济重启的提振和该公司在数字化转型的努力都提振了销售。根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100.4亿美元，同比增加16%，市场预期97.5亿美元；实现利润24.75亿美元，可比每股净利润65美分，同比增加18%，市场预期58美分。\n可口可乐公司董事会主席兼首席执行官詹鲲杰表示，“我们正上调全年业绩指引，以准确反映业务的良好增长势头。”瑞银日前给予可口可乐“买入”评级，预计可口可乐EPS将在2022年实现7-9%的增长。\n4、eBay第三季度营收亿25.01美元 净利同比降53%\neBay发布了2021年第三季度财报。报告显示，eBay第三季度净营收为25.01亿美元，与去年同期的22.58亿美元相比增长11%；来自于持续运营业务的净利润为2.83亿美元，与去年同期的6.05亿美元相比下降53%；不按照美国通用会计准则，eBay第三季度来自于持续运营业务的净利润为5.91亿美元，与去年同期的5.84亿美元相比增长1%。\n5、消息称印度支付巨头Paytm下月IPO 寻求200亿美元估值\n据报道，知情人士今日称，印度支付巨头Paytm将于下月IPO（首次公开招股），目前正寻求约200亿美元的估值。\n该知情人士称，Paytm将把IPO的发行价区间定在每股2080卢比至2150卢比之间，预计将于11月8日挂牌交易。Paytm的目标是通过此次IPO筹集至多1830亿卢比（约合24亿美元），较之前的目标高出约10%。\n上周五有报道称，Paytm的IPO计划已经获得印度证券交易委员会（SEBI）的批准。Paytm最多将发行830亿卢比（约合11亿美元）的新股。此外，软银和伯克希尔哈撒韦等现有股东将出售价值约830亿卢比的股票，总计约1660亿卢比（约合22亿美元）。\n6、特斯拉“大多头”Baron：在这只票上已经赚60亿美元 准备再拿十年\n当地时间周三早晨，知名投资人Ron Baron接受媒体采访时再度表达了对电动车龙头的信心，同时抨击了民主党新鲜出炉的“亿万富翁税”提案。\n根据2020年年报，Baron基金是特斯拉第十二大机构股东，总共持有近600万股特斯拉股票。截至周三开盘，特斯拉股价继续维持在1000美元上方，而Ron Baron的持股成本仅为42.88美元/股。此外，Baron基金也是Space X的私募股权投资人。\nRon Baron在周三公开算了笔账，称公司成立至今总共帮投资者赚了540亿美元的利润，其中有60亿美元来自特斯拉，7、8年前买入时成本仅为3.8亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GDX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867480443,"gmtCreate":1633308032553,"gmtModify":1633308032820,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867480443","repostId":"1135847352","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135847352","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633301975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135847352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 06:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"前瞻：9月非农数据来袭！谭仔国际将于周四上市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135847352","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"数据方面：中国9月财新服务业PMI、美国初请失业金人数、美国9月失业率、美国9月季调后非农就业人口即将揭晓\n\n\n 事件方面：关注第21届欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国部长级会议、澳洲联储公布利率决议\n\n\n 新","content":"<blockquote>\n 数据方面：中国9月财新服务业PMI、美国初请失业金人数、美国9月失业率、美国9月季调后非农就业人口即将揭晓\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 事件方面：关注第21届欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国部长级会议、澳洲联储公布利率决议\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 新股方面：谭仔国际、健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商IFIT等多只港美新股上市\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 财报方面：饮料巨头百事可乐、牛仔品牌李维斯将发财报\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一(10月4日)关键词：欧元区投资者信心、OPEC+部长级会议</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e60311d02c67b23d8bd34515a04f968\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周一，事件方面，</b>市场中所有目光都集中在石油输出国组织和以俄罗斯为首的合作伙伴(OPEC+)将于10月4日举行的会议上。除了现有协议允诺的将11月和12月产量每月提高40万桶/日外，产油国料将讨论其他选项。</p>\n<p>四位OPEC+消息人士表示，进一步增加石油产量是一种可能，但没有人给出具体数量或具体月份。另一位OPEC+消息人士表示，未来一个月可能增加80万桶/日，而之后一个月可能为不增产。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，</b>关注欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数。</p>\n<p><b>周二(10月5日)关键词：澳洲联储决议、美国ISM非制造业PMI、API库存</b></p>\n<p><b>周二，事件方面，关注澳洲联储决议，</b>澳洲联储9月政策会议纪要显示，澳洲联储担心，一旦抗疫封锁开始放松，Delta变异毒株传播可能会放缓经济复苏，尽管该央行仍预计明年经济将恢复强劲增长。委员会考虑推迟将购债计划缩减10亿澳元(7.27亿美元)至每周40亿澳元的计划。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，</b>关注美国ISM非制造业PMI。</p>\n<p><b>财报方面，饮料巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">百事可乐</a></b>将于周二盘前公布财报。</p>\n<p><b>周三(10月6日)关键词：新西兰联储决议、美国ADP、EIA、博斯蒂克</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f66ccdd4037e85a30bf2ff38185cf9\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周三，事件方面，关注新西兰联储公布利率决议。</b>新西兰二季度GDP环比增长2.8%，同比增长17.4%。外界普遍认为，新西兰联储极有可能在本周开始加息，并在11月再次加息。新西兰联储已经非常坚定地走上了收紧货币政策的道路。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，投资者重点关注美国9月ADP就业人数、美国至10月1日当周EIA原油库存。</b></p>\n<p><b>财报方面，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">星座品牌</a>将于周三盘前、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>于盘后公布财报。</b></p>\n<p><b>新股方面，</b>健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFIT.US\">iFIT Health &amp; Fitness Inc.</a>将在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为IFIT。该公司的估值可能高达67亿美元。</p>\n<p>IFit被认为是Peloton Interactive(PTON)更实惠的替代品。该公司提供iFit、NordicTrack、ProForm和FreeMotion等品牌的跑步机、自行车和椭圆机等设备。IFit用户可以在跑步机、自行车或该公司的Vault互动家庭健身房上接受流媒体教练指导。个人访问iFit点播内容的月费为15美元，五口之家的家庭月费为39美元。</p>\n<p><b>周四(10月7日)关键词：中国外储、美国初请、连恩</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e00bcbb1f4e6aed6b75d44d691d91c\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周四，经济数据方面，关注中国9月外汇储备。</b>国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英称，中国8月外储规模连续4个月稳定在3.2万亿元关口上方，年内人民币汇率将基本保持稳定，且境内股市、债市对外资仍具较强吸引力，多重因素将继续支撑外储规模保持基本稳定。</p>\n<p><b>此外，关注美国初请失业金人数。</b>美国首次申请失业救济人数出人意料的连续三周上升，这可能反映出劳动力市场状况恶化以及这个每周数据的高波动性。首次申请失业救济人数上升可能凸显出每周数据的波动，因为雇主迫切希望招聘更多员工，并且能够留住现有的人手。不过，首次申请失业救济人数仍徘徊在疫情以来的低点附近。</p>\n<p><b>财报方面，</b>美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAG\">康尼格拉</a>将于周四盘前发布财报。</p>\n<p><b>新股方面，</b>港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02217\">谭仔国际</a>预期将于周三（10月6日）开启暗盘，并于周四（10月7日）正式上市。该香港米线快餐品牌，又被视为港版沙县。</p>\n<p>美股较多新股上市，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CING\">CINGULATE INC.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LTH\">Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THRX\">THESEUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.</a>。</p>\n<p><b>周五(10月8日)关键词：中国财新服务业PMI、中国社融、美国非农、加拿大就业</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e08bf599878d94f848521b1bd6efed\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周五，经济数据方面，关注中国财新服务业PMI。</b>中国8月服务业供给、需求出现不同程度收缩，因疫情反弹影响了服务业的正常生产经营。不过，随着此轮疫情得到有效控制及中秋、国庆假日临近，企业对近期服务业市场恢复较为乐观。<b>另外，预计中国9月社会融资规模将于周六公布。</b></p>\n<p><b>此外，关注美国非农。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济距离实现充分就业仍很遥远，而充分就业是美联储加息门槛的关键组成部分。这加重了将于10月8日发布的美国9月非农就业报告的份量。该数据可能会显示，新冠Delta变体的影响是否比美联储官员在夏季早些时候预期的更深。</p>\n<p>新股方面，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISO\">IsoPlexis Corp.</a>将上市。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前瞻：9月非农数据来袭！谭仔国际将于周四上市</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前瞻：9月非农数据来袭！谭仔国际将于周四上市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-04 06:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 数据方面：中国9月财新服务业PMI、美国初请失业金人数、美国9月失业率、美国9月季调后非农就业人口即将揭晓\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 事件方面：关注第21届欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国部长级会议、澳洲联储公布利率决议\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 新股方面：谭仔国际、健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商IFIT等多只港美新股上市\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n 财报方面：饮料巨头百事可乐、牛仔品牌李维斯将发财报\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>周一(10月4日)关键词：欧元区投资者信心、OPEC+部长级会议</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e60311d02c67b23d8bd34515a04f968\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周一，事件方面，</b>市场中所有目光都集中在石油输出国组织和以俄罗斯为首的合作伙伴(OPEC+)将于10月4日举行的会议上。除了现有协议允诺的将11月和12月产量每月提高40万桶/日外，产油国料将讨论其他选项。</p>\n<p>四位OPEC+消息人士表示，进一步增加石油产量是一种可能，但没有人给出具体数量或具体月份。另一位OPEC+消息人士表示，未来一个月可能增加80万桶/日，而之后一个月可能为不增产。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，</b>关注欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数。</p>\n<p><b>周二(10月5日)关键词：澳洲联储决议、美国ISM非制造业PMI、API库存</b></p>\n<p><b>周二，事件方面，关注澳洲联储决议，</b>澳洲联储9月政策会议纪要显示，澳洲联储担心，一旦抗疫封锁开始放松，Delta变异毒株传播可能会放缓经济复苏，尽管该央行仍预计明年经济将恢复强劲增长。委员会考虑推迟将购债计划缩减10亿澳元(7.27亿美元)至每周40亿澳元的计划。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，</b>关注美国ISM非制造业PMI。</p>\n<p><b>财报方面，饮料巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PEP\">百事可乐</a></b>将于周二盘前公布财报。</p>\n<p><b>周三(10月6日)关键词：新西兰联储决议、美国ADP、EIA、博斯蒂克</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90f66ccdd4037e85a30bf2ff38185cf9\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周三，事件方面，关注新西兰联储公布利率决议。</b>新西兰二季度GDP环比增长2.8%，同比增长17.4%。外界普遍认为，新西兰联储极有可能在本周开始加息，并在11月再次加息。新西兰联储已经非常坚定地走上了收紧货币政策的道路。</p>\n<p><b>经济数据方面，投资者重点关注美国9月ADP就业人数、美国至10月1日当周EIA原油库存。</b></p>\n<p><b>财报方面，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">星座品牌</a>将于周三盘前、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEVI\">李维斯</a>于盘后公布财报。</b></p>\n<p><b>新股方面，</b>健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IFIT.US\">iFIT Health &amp; Fitness Inc.</a>将在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为IFIT。该公司的估值可能高达67亿美元。</p>\n<p>IFit被认为是Peloton Interactive(PTON)更实惠的替代品。该公司提供iFit、NordicTrack、ProForm和FreeMotion等品牌的跑步机、自行车和椭圆机等设备。IFit用户可以在跑步机、自行车或该公司的Vault互动家庭健身房上接受流媒体教练指导。个人访问iFit点播内容的月费为15美元，五口之家的家庭月费为39美元。</p>\n<p><b>周四(10月7日)关键词：中国外储、美国初请、连恩</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e00bcbb1f4e6aed6b75d44d691d91c\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周四，经济数据方面，关注中国9月外汇储备。</b>国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英称，中国8月外储规模连续4个月稳定在3.2万亿元关口上方，年内人民币汇率将基本保持稳定，且境内股市、债市对外资仍具较强吸引力，多重因素将继续支撑外储规模保持基本稳定。</p>\n<p><b>此外，关注美国初请失业金人数。</b>美国首次申请失业救济人数出人意料的连续三周上升，这可能反映出劳动力市场状况恶化以及这个每周数据的高波动性。首次申请失业救济人数上升可能凸显出每周数据的波动，因为雇主迫切希望招聘更多员工，并且能够留住现有的人手。不过，首次申请失业救济人数仍徘徊在疫情以来的低点附近。</p>\n<p><b>财报方面，</b>美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAG\">康尼格拉</a>将于周四盘前发布财报。</p>\n<p><b>新股方面，</b>港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02217\">谭仔国际</a>预期将于周三（10月6日）开启暗盘，并于周四（10月7日）正式上市。该香港米线快餐品牌，又被视为港版沙县。</p>\n<p>美股较多新股上市，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CING\">CINGULATE INC.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LTH\">Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/THRX\">THESEUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.</a>。</p>\n<p><b>周五(10月8日)关键词：中国财新服务业PMI、中国社融、美国非农、加拿大就业</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98e08bf599878d94f848521b1bd6efed\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>周五，经济数据方面，关注中国财新服务业PMI。</b>中国8月服务业供给、需求出现不同程度收缩，因疫情反弹影响了服务业的正常生产经营。不过，随着此轮疫情得到有效控制及中秋、国庆假日临近，企业对近期服务业市场恢复较为乐观。<b>另外，预计中国9月社会融资规模将于周六公布。</b></p>\n<p><b>此外，关注美国非农。</b>美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济距离实现充分就业仍很遥远，而充分就业是美联储加息门槛的关键组成部分。这加重了将于10月8日发布的美国9月非农就业报告的份量。该数据可能会显示，新冠Delta变体的影响是否比美联储官员在夏季早些时候预期的更深。</p>\n<p>新股方面，美股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISO\">IsoPlexis Corp.</a>将上市。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135847352","content_text":"数据方面：中国9月财新服务业PMI、美国初请失业金人数、美国9月失业率、美国9月季调后非农就业人口即将揭晓\n\n\n 事件方面：关注第21届欧佩克与非欧佩克产油国部长级会议、澳洲联储公布利率决议\n\n\n 新股方面：谭仔国际、健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商IFIT等多只港美新股上市\n\n\n 财报方面：饮料巨头百事可乐、牛仔品牌李维斯将发财报\n\n周一(10月4日)关键词：欧元区投资者信心、OPEC+部长级会议\n周一，事件方面，市场中所有目光都集中在石油输出国组织和以俄罗斯为首的合作伙伴(OPEC+)将于10月4日举行的会议上。除了现有协议允诺的将11月和12月产量每月提高40万桶/日外，产油国料将讨论其他选项。\n四位OPEC+消息人士表示，进一步增加石油产量是一种可能，但没有人给出具体数量或具体月份。另一位OPEC+消息人士表示，未来一个月可能增加80万桶/日，而之后一个月可能为不增产。\n经济数据方面，关注欧元区10月Sentix投资者信心指数。\n周二(10月5日)关键词：澳洲联储决议、美国ISM非制造业PMI、API库存\n周二，事件方面，关注澳洲联储决议，澳洲联储9月政策会议纪要显示，澳洲联储担心，一旦抗疫封锁开始放松，Delta变异毒株传播可能会放缓经济复苏，尽管该央行仍预计明年经济将恢复强劲增长。委员会考虑推迟将购债计划缩减10亿澳元(7.27亿美元)至每周40亿澳元的计划。\n经济数据方面，关注美国ISM非制造业PMI。\n财报方面，饮料巨头百事可乐将于周二盘前公布财报。\n周三(10月6日)关键词：新西兰联储决议、美国ADP、EIA、博斯蒂克周三，事件方面，关注新西兰联储公布利率决议。新西兰二季度GDP环比增长2.8%，同比增长17.4%。外界普遍认为，新西兰联储极有可能在本周开始加息，并在11月再次加息。新西兰联储已经非常坚定地走上了收紧货币政策的道路。\n经济数据方面，投资者重点关注美国9月ADP就业人数、美国至10月1日当周EIA原油库存。\n财报方面，美股星座品牌将于周三盘前、李维斯于盘后公布财报。\n新股方面，健身器材和健康内容订阅服务商iFIT Health & Fitness Inc.将在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为IFIT。该公司的估值可能高达67亿美元。\nIFit被认为是Peloton Interactive(PTON)更实惠的替代品。该公司提供iFit、NordicTrack、ProForm和FreeMotion等品牌的跑步机、自行车和椭圆机等设备。IFit用户可以在跑步机、自行车或该公司的Vault互动家庭健身房上接受流媒体教练指导。个人访问iFit点播内容的月费为15美元，五口之家的家庭月费为39美元。\n周四(10月7日)关键词：中国外储、美国初请、连恩周四，经济数据方面，关注中国9月外汇储备。国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春英称，中国8月外储规模连续4个月稳定在3.2万亿元关口上方，年内人民币汇率将基本保持稳定，且境内股市、债市对外资仍具较强吸引力，多重因素将继续支撑外储规模保持基本稳定。\n此外，关注美国初请失业金人数。美国首次申请失业救济人数出人意料的连续三周上升，这可能反映出劳动力市场状况恶化以及这个每周数据的高波动性。首次申请失业救济人数上升可能凸显出每周数据的波动，因为雇主迫切希望招聘更多员工，并且能够留住现有的人手。不过，首次申请失业救济人数仍徘徊在疫情以来的低点附近。\n财报方面，美股康尼格拉将于周四盘前发布财报。\n新股方面，港股谭仔国际预期将于周三（10月6日）开启暗盘，并于周四（10月7日）正式上市。该香港米线快餐品牌，又被视为港版沙县。\n美股较多新股上市，包括CINGULATE INC.、Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.、THESEUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.。\n周五(10月8日)关键词：中国财新服务业PMI、中国社融、美国非农、加拿大就业周五，经济数据方面，关注中国财新服务业PMI。中国8月服务业供给、需求出现不同程度收缩，因疫情反弹影响了服务业的正常生产经营。不过，随着此轮疫情得到有效控制及中秋、国庆假日临近，企业对近期服务业市场恢复较为乐观。另外，预计中国9月社会融资规模将于周六公布。\n此外，关注美国非农。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济距离实现充分就业仍很遥远，而充分就业是美联储加息门槛的关键组成部分。这加重了将于10月8日发布的美国9月非农就业报告的份量。该数据可能会显示，新冠Delta变体的影响是否比美联储官员在夏季早些时候预期的更深。\n新股方面，美股IsoPlexis Corp.将上市。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817351537,"gmtCreate":1630911839929,"gmtModify":1632905175122,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817351537","repostId":"1110543090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892937442,"gmtCreate":1628632669986,"gmtModify":1633745667012,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892937442","repostId":"1132796864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132796864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628608992,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132796864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132796864","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from hi","content":"<p><div> Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange. What Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Coinbase Global Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）资本市场主管Brett Redfearn已辞去加密货币交易所的职务。事情经过：根据《华尔街日报》的报道，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange. What Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Coinbase Global Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）资本市场主管Brett Redfearn已辞去加密货币交易所的职务。事情经过：根据《华尔街日报》的报道，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132796864","content_text":"Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange.\nWhat Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter disclosed that his reasons for leaving Coinbase had to do with the crypto-exchange shifting its focus away from digital asset securities.\nRedfearn was one of Coinbase’s most high-profile hires, having served as the former director of trading and markets at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before joining the crypto exchange.\nThe executive joined Coinbase’s ranks just two weeks before the exchange’s public listing.\nAblog postfrom Coinbase’s Chief Product Officer Surojit Chatterjee in March described Redfearn’s role at the company as the person responsible for defining and driving a vision and strategy to set the global standard for crypto capital markets, including digital asset securities and its crypto trading platform.\n“I believe that a digitized trading ecosystem can help democratize retail investors’ ability to access our capital markets on a fair and level playing field. I also believe that instantaneous settlement will eventually be possible, which could ameliorate capital requirements and improve market liquidity,” said Redfearn at the time.\nNow, in just four months since he assumed the role of Vice President of Capital Markets at Coinbase, Redfearn appears to have resigned.\nPrice Action:Coinbase shares were trading 5.16% lower, at $2650.47 at press time.\nShares of the crypto exchange moved in tandem with crypto markets that reached $1.9 trillion for the first time since prices crashed in May.\nAt press time, the market-leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) traded at $45,410, gaining as much as 17.84% over the past week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896908968,"gmtCreate":1628549811354,"gmtModify":1633746345480,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890647196","repostId":"1187165636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807885621,"gmtCreate":1628029504363,"gmtModify":1633754358032,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807885621","repostId":"1171505764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803493339,"gmtCreate":1627454047021,"gmtModify":1633764835495,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803493339","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176586109,"gmtCreate":1626907783501,"gmtModify":1633769977259,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176586109","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155784866,"gmtCreate":1625454036055,"gmtModify":1633940531405,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155784866","repostId":"1154888582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154888582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625453334,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154888582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154888582","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.\nIn past shareholder ","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.</li>  <li>In past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.</li>  <li>Most importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.</li>  <li>That's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.</li>  <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »</li> </ul> Feverpitched/iStock via <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特历来青睐房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业。</li><li>在过去的股东大会上，他解释说，出于多种原因，他不喜欢私人房地产投资。</li><li>最重要的是，他在房地产方面没有优势，不想和管理层打交道，很难找到机会。</li><li>这就是他青睐房地产投资信托基金的原因，他去年才购买了房地产投资信托基金。</li><li>寻找这样的想法组合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。了解更多»</li></ul>Feverpitched/iStock来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">盖蒂</a>图像</blockquote></p><p> In previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的文章中，我解释过，尽管我有私募股权房地产投资背景，但我选择将资本投资于房地产投资信托基金，因为它们在大多数情况下更安全、回报更高。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金更安全，因为它们多元化、专业管理、流动性强，并且可以更好地获得资本。</blockquote></p><p> They're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:</p><p><blockquote>它们的回报也更高，因为它们享有巨大的规模经济、更快的增长，而且投资者支付的交易成本也低得多：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Study shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>研究表明，房地产投资信托基金的表现每年优于私人房地产约4%：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08211e86e46b7ccd368944f838ce3c87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> In short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，REITs将房地产的好处（高收益、防通胀、升值）与股票的好处（流动性、低交易成本、专业化管理、多元化）结合成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>漂亮的车辆，提供比租赁物业更好的风险和麻烦调整回报。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take it just from me.</p><p><blockquote>但不要只从我这里拿走。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">General Growth Properties</a> ((now Brookfield (BPY)), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">Vornado</a> (VNO.PK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage Growth Properties</a> (SRG), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> when it dropped following the covid market crash.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以建立租赁物业投资组合，但他选择投资房地产投资信托基金。审阅本公司过往年报<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔哈撒韦</a>（BRK.A）（BRK.B），我们发现他之前投资了Tanger Outlets（SKT），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">一般生长特性</a>（（现在布鲁克菲尔德（BPY）），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">沃尔纳多</a>(VNO.PK),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage生长特性</a>(SRG)，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>（STOR）除其他外。就在去年，他加倍下注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>当它在covid市场崩盘后下跌时。</blockquote></p><p> Why doesn't he buy rentals instead?</p><p><blockquote>他为什么不买出租呢？</blockquote></p><p> That's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们今天文章要探讨的。沃伦·巴菲特在过去的采访中经常讨论这个话题，在接下来的内容中，我们将讨论他更喜欢房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业的五个原因：</blockquote></p><p> Reason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence</p><p><blockquote>理由1：坚持你的能力圈</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广了这句格言：“了解你的能力圈，并坚持在其中。”</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，这个圆的大小远没有知道它的边界重要。</blockquote></p><p> Put differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，你不可能成为万事通，需要专攻某件事才能真正掌握它。</blockquote></p><p> For Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.</p><p><blockquote>对巴菲特来说，这主要是消费品和保险业务。毫不奇怪，他很少投资房地产（甚至房地产投资信托基金），因为这超出了他的能力范围。</blockquote></p><p> At a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.</p><p><blockquote>在一次股东大会上，当被问及投资房地产时，巴菲特和查理·芒格补充说，这是一个他们没有竞争优势的行业。他们解释说，房地产投资信托基金和大型私募股权公司将比他们拥有更好的资源、专业知识、规模和关系，如果他们试图投资房地产，伯克希尔将处于不利地位。</blockquote></p><p> This is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.</p><p><blockquote>这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>他们宁愿投资房地产投资信托基金股票的主要原因。它将他们与比他们拥有更好资源和专业知识的专业人士联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> As an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.</p><p><blockquote>例如，STORE Capitalis是中间市场售后回租交易的领导者。这是他们自己无法遵循的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash</p><p><blockquote>原因2：租户、厕所和垃圾</blockquote></p><p> In the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.</p><p><blockquote>在金融危机之后，巴菲特有一句名言，如果他有一种简单的方法来管理出租房产，他就会大量购买。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.</p><p><blockquote>当时，房地产价格最近暴跌，有一个购买独栋房屋的大好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Even then, he didn't.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他也没有。</blockquote></p><p> Why you might ask?</p><p><blockquote>你可能会问为什么？</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，出租物业的管理是一场噩梦。这是一项利润率相对较低的业务，规模不太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Imagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你拥有一套每月1000美元的出租屋。扣除所有费用后，您的NOI为（比方说）每月700美元，每年现金流为8,400美元。只需要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>不可预见的失望和你一整年的现金流可能会消失：一个拒绝付款也不愿搬家的房客...导致水毁的漏水屋顶...因寒冷气候而破裂的管道...</blockquote></p><p> Unless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.</p><p><blockquote>除非你喜欢大规模，降低你的物业管理成本，否则很难持续获得良好的回报，最重要的是，这是一个大多数人宁愿避免的大麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.</p><p><blockquote>有了房地产投资信托基金，您可以享受规模效益，并让专业经理以经济高效的方式为您处理一切。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #3: No Corporate Income Tax</p><p><blockquote>原因3：没有企业所得税</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>人们普遍认为出租房产比房地产投资信托基金投资更节税，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，房地产投资信托基金的税收效率非常高：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>They pay no corporate income tax.</li>  <li>They distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.</li>  <li>A portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.</li>  <li>The portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.</li>  <li>Generally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.</li> </ol> Berkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>他们不缴纳企业所得税。</li><li>他们分配60%-70%的现金，这意味着30%-40%不征税。</li><li>分配的一部分是“资本回报”，不征税。</li><li>征税的部分享受20%的扣除。</li><li>一般来说，房地产投资信托基金是更注重增长的房地产投资，因此，总回报的一半以上是递延税增值。</li></ol>伯克希尔的结构是C-corp，因此，它必须为其所有利润缴纳公司税。因此，房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说更具税收效率。</blockquote></p><p> Private rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.</p><p><blockquote>私人出租物业收益率较高，但增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> REITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金增长更快，但收益率较低。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔宁愿通过递延税增值来复利其资本，并避免为投资产生的收入缴纳公司税。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>原因4：波动性带来机遇</blockquote></p><p> Unsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.</p><p><blockquote>不成熟的个人投资者害怕波动性。他们过于短视，专注于每日报价，很快就会恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，他们往往喜欢出租物业，这给他们一种虚假的稳定感，由于缺乏报价。</blockquote></p><p> But professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的专业投资者欢迎波动性，并将其视为一份礼物。这让他们有机会以折扣价进行投资，从长远来看，这最终会带来更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的一次采访中，巴菲特解释说，房地产市场走势缓慢，因此很少发生大规模的错误定价。大多数业主都有长远的想法，在对各种房产的风险和回报潜力进行定价方面做得相当好。这使得像他这样的投资者更难获得异常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.</p><p><blockquote>有了REITs，机会就更频繁了。举个例子，早在2017年，STORE Capital就创造了新的创纪录业绩，但由于零售市场失宠，从30美元跌至20美元。市场没有意识到的是，STOR的收入主要来自服务型零售商，这些零售商对亚马逊(AMZN)具有弹性，而且其租约长达10多年。</blockquote></p><p> That was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的机会，伯克希尔抓住了它。STORE Capital前首席执行官Chris Volk在下面的视频中解释了这项投资的背景。跳到8:55部分：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是这个想法的幕后黑手，他们在STOR下跌后利用市场波动建立了自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Shortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，STOR康复了，为他们赢得的回报轻松超过了他们从普通租赁房产中获得的回报。</blockquote></p><p> When you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.</p><p><blockquote>当你像巴菲特一样有长远眼光时，波动性是一大优势，这解释了他为什么喜欢房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #5: Disconnect Between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">Public</a> and Private Market</p><p><blockquote>原因5：之间断开连接<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">公共的</a>和私人市场</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it all comes down to the price you pay.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这一切都取决于你付出的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>如今，房地产市场正在蓬勃发展，过去一年平均房价上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，房地产投资信托基金（VNQ）几乎没有从2020年经历的崩盘中恢复过来，许多单个房地产投资信托基金的定价仍比危机前水平低20、30甚至40%。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，房地产投资信托基金比私人房地产提供更好的价值，这解释了他为什么青睐房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>去年，伯克希尔加倍投资STORE Capital，此后该公司已恢复良好。他们拥有价值8.5亿美元的股权，占公司9%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> I bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，如果可以的话，伯克希尔过去会进行更多的房地产投资信托基金投资。但鉴于其庞大的规模和房地产投资信托基金严格的所有权限制，大多数房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说都太小了。</blockquote></p><p> That's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.</p><p><blockquote>这是个人投资者相对于巴菲特少有的优势之一。您可以自由投资任何房地产投资信托基金，无论其规模如何，并获得折扣和专业管理的房地产投资。</blockquote></p><p> Closing Note</p><p><blockquote>结束语</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>和巴菲特一样，我喜欢房地产投资信托基金投资，因为在大多数情况下，它们可以提供更好的风险和麻烦调整后回报。</blockquote></p><p> During the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:</p><p><blockquote>过去20年，平均年回报率在15%以上，一些个别REITs的表现甚至更好：</blockquote></p><p> Could I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.</p><p><blockquote>我能通过购买私人房产做得更好吗？我严重怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> And even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>即使我可以，为了赚取一些额外的回报点而接受更大的风险和麻烦值得吗？应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.</li>  <li>In past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.</li>  <li>Most importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.</li>  <li>That's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.</li>  <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »</li> </ul> Feverpitched/iStock via <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特历来青睐房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业。</li><li>在过去的股东大会上，他解释说，出于多种原因，他不喜欢私人房地产投资。</li><li>最重要的是，他在房地产方面没有优势，不想和管理层打交道，很难找到机会。</li><li>这就是他青睐房地产投资信托基金的原因，他去年才购买了房地产投资信托基金。</li><li>寻找这样的想法组合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。了解更多»</li></ul>Feverpitched/iStock来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">盖蒂</a>图像</blockquote></p><p> In previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的文章中，我解释过，尽管我有私募股权房地产投资背景，但我选择将资本投资于房地产投资信托基金，因为它们在大多数情况下更安全、回报更高。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金更安全，因为它们多元化、专业管理、流动性强，并且可以更好地获得资本。</blockquote></p><p> They're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:</p><p><blockquote>它们的回报也更高，因为它们享有巨大的规模经济、更快的增长，而且投资者支付的交易成本也低得多：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Study shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>研究表明，房地产投资信托基金的表现每年优于私人房地产约4%：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08211e86e46b7ccd368944f838ce3c87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> In short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，REITs将房地产的好处（高收益、防通胀、升值）与股票的好处（流动性、低交易成本、专业化管理、多元化）结合成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>漂亮的车辆，提供比租赁物业更好的风险和麻烦调整回报。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take it just from me.</p><p><blockquote>但不要只从我这里拿走。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">General Growth Properties</a> ((now Brookfield (BPY)), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">Vornado</a> (VNO.PK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage Growth Properties</a> (SRG), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> when it dropped following the covid market crash.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以建立租赁物业投资组合，但他选择投资房地产投资信托基金。审阅本公司过往年报<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔哈撒韦</a>（BRK.A）（BRK.B），我们发现他之前投资了Tanger Outlets（SKT），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">一般生长特性</a>（（现在布鲁克菲尔德（BPY）），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">沃尔纳多</a>(VNO.PK),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage生长特性</a>(SRG)，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>（STOR）除其他外。就在去年，他加倍下注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>当它在covid市场崩盘后下跌时。</blockquote></p><p> Why doesn't he buy rentals instead?</p><p><blockquote>他为什么不买出租呢？</blockquote></p><p> That's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们今天文章要探讨的。沃伦·巴菲特在过去的采访中经常讨论这个话题，在接下来的内容中，我们将讨论他更喜欢房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业的五个原因：</blockquote></p><p> Reason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence</p><p><blockquote>理由1：坚持你的能力圈</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广了这句格言：“了解你的能力圈，并坚持在其中。”</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，这个圆的大小远没有知道它的边界重要。</blockquote></p><p> Put differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，你不可能成为万事通，需要专攻某件事才能真正掌握它。</blockquote></p><p> For Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.</p><p><blockquote>对巴菲特来说，这主要是消费品和保险业务。毫不奇怪，他很少投资房地产（甚至房地产投资信托基金），因为这超出了他的能力范围。</blockquote></p><p> At a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.</p><p><blockquote>在一次股东大会上，当被问及投资房地产时，巴菲特和查理·芒格补充说，这是一个他们没有竞争优势的行业。他们解释说，房地产投资信托基金和大型私募股权公司将比他们拥有更好的资源、专业知识、规模和关系，如果他们试图投资房地产，伯克希尔将处于不利地位。</blockquote></p><p> This is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.</p><p><blockquote>这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>他们宁愿投资房地产投资信托基金股票的主要原因。它将他们与比他们拥有更好资源和专业知识的专业人士联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> As an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.</p><p><blockquote>例如，STORE Capitalis是中间市场售后回租交易的领导者。这是他们自己无法遵循的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash</p><p><blockquote>原因2：租户、厕所和垃圾</blockquote></p><p> In the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.</p><p><blockquote>在金融危机之后，巴菲特有一句名言，如果他有一种简单的方法来管理出租房产，他就会大量购买。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.</p><p><blockquote>当时，房地产价格最近暴跌，有一个购买独栋房屋的大好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Even then, he didn't.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他也没有。</blockquote></p><p> Why you might ask?</p><p><blockquote>你可能会问为什么？</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，出租物业的管理是一场噩梦。这是一项利润率相对较低的业务，规模不太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Imagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你拥有一套每月1000美元的出租屋。扣除所有费用后，您的NOI为（比方说）每月700美元，每年现金流为8,400美元。只需要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>不可预见的失望和你一整年的现金流可能会消失：一个拒绝付款也不愿搬家的房客...导致水毁的漏水屋顶...因寒冷气候而破裂的管道...</blockquote></p><p> Unless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.</p><p><blockquote>除非你喜欢大规模，降低你的物业管理成本，否则很难持续获得良好的回报，最重要的是，这是一个大多数人宁愿避免的大麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.</p><p><blockquote>有了房地产投资信托基金，您可以享受规模效益，并让专业经理以经济高效的方式为您处理一切。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #3: No Corporate Income Tax</p><p><blockquote>原因3：没有企业所得税</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>人们普遍认为出租房产比房地产投资信托基金投资更节税，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，房地产投资信托基金的税收效率非常高：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>They pay no corporate income tax.</li>  <li>They distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.</li>  <li>A portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.</li>  <li>The portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.</li>  <li>Generally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.</li> </ol> Berkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>他们不缴纳企业所得税。</li><li>他们分配60%-70%的现金，这意味着30%-40%不征税。</li><li>分配的一部分是“资本回报”，不征税。</li><li>征税的部分享受20%的扣除。</li><li>一般来说，房地产投资信托基金是更注重增长的房地产投资，因此，总回报的一半以上是递延税增值。</li></ol>伯克希尔的结构是C-corp，因此，它必须为其所有利润缴纳公司税。因此，房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说更具税收效率。</blockquote></p><p> Private rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.</p><p><blockquote>私人出租物业收益率较高，但增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> REITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金增长更快，但收益率较低。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔宁愿通过递延税增值来复利其资本，并避免为投资产生的收入缴纳公司税。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>原因4：波动性带来机遇</blockquote></p><p> Unsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.</p><p><blockquote>不成熟的个人投资者害怕波动性。他们过于短视，专注于每日报价，很快就会恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，他们往往喜欢出租物业，这给他们一种虚假的稳定感，由于缺乏报价。</blockquote></p><p> But professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的专业投资者欢迎波动性，并将其视为一份礼物。这让他们有机会以折扣价进行投资，从长远来看，这最终会带来更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的一次采访中，巴菲特解释说，房地产市场走势缓慢，因此很少发生大规模的错误定价。大多数业主都有长远的想法，在对各种房产的风险和回报潜力进行定价方面做得相当好。这使得像他这样的投资者更难获得异常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.</p><p><blockquote>有了REITs，机会就更频繁了。举个例子，早在2017年，STORE Capital就创造了新的创纪录业绩，但由于零售市场失宠，从30美元跌至20美元。市场没有意识到的是，STOR的收入主要来自服务型零售商，这些零售商对亚马逊(AMZN)具有弹性，而且其租约长达10多年。</blockquote></p><p> That was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的机会，伯克希尔抓住了它。STORE Capital前首席执行官Chris Volk在下面的视频中解释了这项投资的背景。跳到8:55部分：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是这个想法的幕后黑手，他们在STOR下跌后利用市场波动建立了自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Shortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，STOR康复了，为他们赢得的回报轻松超过了他们从普通租赁房产中获得的回报。</blockquote></p><p> When you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.</p><p><blockquote>当你像巴菲特一样有长远眼光时，波动性是一大优势，这解释了他为什么喜欢房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #5: Disconnect Between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">Public</a> and Private Market</p><p><blockquote>原因5：之间断开连接<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">公共的</a>和私人市场</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it all comes down to the price you pay.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这一切都取决于你付出的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>如今，房地产市场正在蓬勃发展，过去一年平均房价上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，房地产投资信托基金（VNQ）几乎没有从2020年经历的崩盘中恢复过来，许多单个房地产投资信托基金的定价仍比危机前水平低20、30甚至40%。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，房地产投资信托基金比私人房地产提供更好的价值，这解释了他为什么青睐房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>去年，伯克希尔加倍投资STORE Capital，此后该公司已恢复良好。他们拥有价值8.5亿美元的股权，占公司9%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> I bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，如果可以的话，伯克希尔过去会进行更多的房地产投资信托基金投资。但鉴于其庞大的规模和房地产投资信托基金严格的所有权限制，大多数房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说都太小了。</blockquote></p><p> That's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.</p><p><blockquote>这是个人投资者相对于巴菲特少有的优势之一。您可以自由投资任何房地产投资信托基金，无论其规模如何，并获得折扣和专业管理的房地产投资。</blockquote></p><p> Closing Note</p><p><blockquote>结束语</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>和巴菲特一样，我喜欢房地产投资信托基金投资，因为在大多数情况下，它们可以提供更好的风险和麻烦调整后回报。</blockquote></p><p> During the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:</p><p><blockquote>过去20年，平均年回报率在15%以上，一些个别REITs的表现甚至更好：</blockquote></p><p> Could I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.</p><p><blockquote>我能通过购买私人房产做得更好吗？我严重怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> And even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>即使我可以，为了赚取一些额外的回报点而接受更大的风险和麻烦值得吗？应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437280-why-warren-buffett-buys-reits-instead-of-rental-properties\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437280-why-warren-buffett-buys-reits-instead-of-rental-properties","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154888582","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.\nIn past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.\nMost importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.\nThat's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »\n\nFeverpitched/iStock via Getty Images\nIn previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.\nREITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.\nThey're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:\nStudy shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:\n\nSource\nIn short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into one beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.\nBut don't take it just from me.\nWarren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), General Growth Properties ((now Brookfield (BPY)), Vornado (VNO.PK), Seritage Growth Properties (SRG), and STORE Capital (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on STORE Capital when it dropped following the covid market crash.\nWhy doesn't he buy rentals instead?\nThat's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:\nReason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence\nWarren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"\nHe explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.\nPut differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.\nFor Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.\nAt a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.\nThis is one of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.\nAs an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.\nReason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash\nIn the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.\nBack then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.\nEven then, he didn't.\nWhy you might ask?\nHe explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.\nImagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is one unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...\nUnless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.\nWith REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.\nReason #3: No Corporate Income Tax\nInvestors commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.\nREITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:\n\nThey pay no corporate income tax.\nThey distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.\nA portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.\nThe portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.\nGenerally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.\n\nBerkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.\nPrivate rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.\nREITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.\nBerkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.\nReason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities\nUnsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.\nFor these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.\nBut professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.\nIn a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.\nWith REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.\nThat was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:\nBuffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.\nShortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.\nWhen you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.\nReason #5: Disconnect Between Public and Private Market\nFinally, it all comes down to the price you pay.\nToday, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.\nOn the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.\nPut simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.\nLast year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.\nI bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.\nThat's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.\nClosing Note\nJust like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.\nDuring the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:\nCould I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.\nAnd even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152918627,"gmtCreate":1625258742369,"gmtModify":1633942073077,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152918627","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123375877,"gmtCreate":1624410785799,"gmtModify":1634006546048,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123375877","repostId":"1164759713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167950649,"gmtCreate":1624243675781,"gmtModify":1634008983161,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167950649","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166851677,"gmtCreate":1624003600499,"gmtModify":1634024275878,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166851677","repostId":"1118915240","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118915240","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624003162,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118915240?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 15:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118915240","media":"benzinga","summary":"CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday.What Happened:Kemula told FT the German vaccine developer is still hopeful the jab could be offered to certain age groups or as a booster after data from CureVac’s late-stage trial of its international first-generation vaccine candidateshowed that it had only47% efficacy.“There is a lot of need for vaccines ou","content":"<p><div> CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据英国《金融时报》周四报道，CureVac N.V.首席财务官Pierre Kemula对其COVID-19疫苗仍可提供给某些年龄组或作为加强剂持乐观态度。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 15:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据英国《金融时报》周四报道，CureVac N.V.首席财务官Pierre Kemula对其COVID-19疫苗仍可提供给某些年龄组或作为加强剂持乐观态度。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CVAC":"CureVac B.V."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118915240","content_text":"CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday.\nWhat Happened:Kemula told FT the German vaccine developer is still hopeful the jab could be offered to certain age groups or as a booster after data from CureVac’s late-stage trial of its international first-generation vaccine candidateshowed that it had only47% efficacy.\n“There is a lot of need for vaccines out there,” Kemula said, adding it will work with the agencies to find a “sweet spot” for the vaccine usage, as per the report.\nWhy It Matters:Expectations were running high for CureVac, in which the German government bought a 23% stake to allay concerns it could move to the United States. CureVac’s vaccine program disappointment comes at a time when a handful of vaccines are already in the market through the emergency authorization route.\nThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration has recently revised vaccine review guidelines, deciding not to entertain emergency use applications. Instead, the agency is now contemplating review only through the full approval process route, necessitating more detailed data.\nCureVac has acollaboration with Tesla Inc for vaccine printers. In April, Elon Musk in a tweet suggested CureVac was “a few months away from regulatory approval,” but deleted it soon after.\nPrice Action:CureVac shares dived 39% to close at $57.83 on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"CVAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163461305,"gmtCreate":1623891493907,"gmtModify":1634026365143,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185621897","repostId":"2142422555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183191446,"gmtCreate":1623313045085,"gmtModify":1634034687929,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183191446","repostId":"1105458663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":803493339,"gmtCreate":1627454047021,"gmtModify":1633764835495,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803493339","repostId":"2154991792","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176586109,"gmtCreate":1626907783501,"gmtModify":1633769977259,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176586109","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892937442,"gmtCreate":1628632669986,"gmtModify":1633745667012,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892937442","repostId":"1132796864","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132796864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628608992,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132796864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Coinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132796864","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from hi","content":"<p><div> Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange. What Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Coinbase Global Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）资本市场主管Brett Redfearn已辞去加密货币交易所的职务。事情经过：根据《华尔街日报》的报道，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Coinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCoinbase's Head Of Capital Markets Resigns After Crypto Exchange Reportedly Shifts Focus<blockquote>据报道，加密货币交易所转移焦点后，Coinbase资本市场主管辞职</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-10 23:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange. What Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, ...</p><p><blockquote><div>Coinbase Global Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）资本市场主管Brett Redfearn已辞去加密货币交易所的职务。事情经过：根据《华尔街日报》的报道，...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22417307/coinbases-head-of-capital-markets-resigns-after-crypto-exchange-reportedly-shifts-focus","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132796864","content_text":"Brett Redfearn, who headed capital markets at Coinbase Global Inc(NASDAQ:COIN), has resigned from his position at the crypto exchange.\nWhat Happened:According to a report from theWall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter disclosed that his reasons for leaving Coinbase had to do with the crypto-exchange shifting its focus away from digital asset securities.\nRedfearn was one of Coinbase’s most high-profile hires, having served as the former director of trading and markets at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before joining the crypto exchange.\nThe executive joined Coinbase’s ranks just two weeks before the exchange’s public listing.\nAblog postfrom Coinbase’s Chief Product Officer Surojit Chatterjee in March described Redfearn’s role at the company as the person responsible for defining and driving a vision and strategy to set the global standard for crypto capital markets, including digital asset securities and its crypto trading platform.\n“I believe that a digitized trading ecosystem can help democratize retail investors’ ability to access our capital markets on a fair and level playing field. I also believe that instantaneous settlement will eventually be possible, which could ameliorate capital requirements and improve market liquidity,” said Redfearn at the time.\nNow, in just four months since he assumed the role of Vice President of Capital Markets at Coinbase, Redfearn appears to have resigned.\nPrice Action:Coinbase shares were trading 5.16% lower, at $2650.47 at press time.\nShares of the crypto exchange moved in tandem with crypto markets that reached $1.9 trillion for the first time since prices crashed in May.\nAt press time, the market-leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) traded at $45,410, gaining as much as 17.84% over the past week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152918627,"gmtCreate":1625258742369,"gmtModify":1633942073077,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152918627","repostId":"1165340887","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155784866,"gmtCreate":1625454036055,"gmtModify":1633940531405,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155784866","repostId":"1154888582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154888582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625453334,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154888582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154888582","media":"seeking alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWarren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.\nIn past shareholder ","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.</li>  <li>In past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.</li>  <li>Most importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.</li>  <li>That's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.</li>  <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »</li> </ul> Feverpitched/iStock via <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特历来青睐房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业。</li><li>在过去的股东大会上，他解释说，出于多种原因，他不喜欢私人房地产投资。</li><li>最重要的是，他在房地产方面没有优势，不想和管理层打交道，很难找到机会。</li><li>这就是他青睐房地产投资信托基金的原因，他去年才购买了房地产投资信托基金。</li><li>寻找这样的想法组合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。了解更多»</li></ul>Feverpitched/iStock来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">盖蒂</a>图像</blockquote></p><p> In previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的文章中，我解释过，尽管我有私募股权房地产投资背景，但我选择将资本投资于房地产投资信托基金，因为它们在大多数情况下更安全、回报更高。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金更安全，因为它们多元化、专业管理、流动性强，并且可以更好地获得资本。</blockquote></p><p> They're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:</p><p><blockquote>它们的回报也更高，因为它们享有巨大的规模经济、更快的增长，而且投资者支付的交易成本也低得多：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Study shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>研究表明，房地产投资信托基金的表现每年优于私人房地产约4%：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08211e86e46b7ccd368944f838ce3c87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> In short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，REITs将房地产的好处（高收益、防通胀、升值）与股票的好处（流动性、低交易成本、专业化管理、多元化）结合成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>漂亮的车辆，提供比租赁物业更好的风险和麻烦调整回报。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take it just from me.</p><p><blockquote>但不要只从我这里拿走。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">General Growth Properties</a> ((now Brookfield (BPY)), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">Vornado</a> (VNO.PK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage Growth Properties</a> (SRG), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> when it dropped following the covid market crash.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以建立租赁物业投资组合，但他选择投资房地产投资信托基金。审阅本公司过往年报<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔哈撒韦</a>（BRK.A）（BRK.B），我们发现他之前投资了Tanger Outlets（SKT），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">一般生长特性</a>（（现在布鲁克菲尔德（BPY）），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">沃尔纳多</a>(VNO.PK),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage生长特性</a>(SRG)，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>（STOR）除其他外。就在去年，他加倍下注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>当它在covid市场崩盘后下跌时。</blockquote></p><p> Why doesn't he buy rentals instead?</p><p><blockquote>他为什么不买出租呢？</blockquote></p><p> That's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们今天文章要探讨的。沃伦·巴菲特在过去的采访中经常讨论这个话题，在接下来的内容中，我们将讨论他更喜欢房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业的五个原因：</blockquote></p><p> Reason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence</p><p><blockquote>理由1：坚持你的能力圈</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广了这句格言：“了解你的能力圈，并坚持在其中。”</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，这个圆的大小远没有知道它的边界重要。</blockquote></p><p> Put differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，你不可能成为万事通，需要专攻某件事才能真正掌握它。</blockquote></p><p> For Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.</p><p><blockquote>对巴菲特来说，这主要是消费品和保险业务。毫不奇怪，他很少投资房地产（甚至房地产投资信托基金），因为这超出了他的能力范围。</blockquote></p><p> At a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.</p><p><blockquote>在一次股东大会上，当被问及投资房地产时，巴菲特和查理·芒格补充说，这是一个他们没有竞争优势的行业。他们解释说，房地产投资信托基金和大型私募股权公司将比他们拥有更好的资源、专业知识、规模和关系，如果他们试图投资房地产，伯克希尔将处于不利地位。</blockquote></p><p> This is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.</p><p><blockquote>这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>他们宁愿投资房地产投资信托基金股票的主要原因。它将他们与比他们拥有更好资源和专业知识的专业人士联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> As an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.</p><p><blockquote>例如，STORE Capitalis是中间市场售后回租交易的领导者。这是他们自己无法遵循的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash</p><p><blockquote>原因2：租户、厕所和垃圾</blockquote></p><p> In the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.</p><p><blockquote>在金融危机之后，巴菲特有一句名言，如果他有一种简单的方法来管理出租房产，他就会大量购买。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.</p><p><blockquote>当时，房地产价格最近暴跌，有一个购买独栋房屋的大好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Even then, he didn't.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他也没有。</blockquote></p><p> Why you might ask?</p><p><blockquote>你可能会问为什么？</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，出租物业的管理是一场噩梦。这是一项利润率相对较低的业务，规模不太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Imagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你拥有一套每月1000美元的出租屋。扣除所有费用后，您的NOI为（比方说）每月700美元，每年现金流为8,400美元。只需要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>不可预见的失望和你一整年的现金流可能会消失：一个拒绝付款也不愿搬家的房客...导致水毁的漏水屋顶...因寒冷气候而破裂的管道...</blockquote></p><p> Unless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.</p><p><blockquote>除非你喜欢大规模，降低你的物业管理成本，否则很难持续获得良好的回报，最重要的是，这是一个大多数人宁愿避免的大麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.</p><p><blockquote>有了房地产投资信托基金，您可以享受规模效益，并让专业经理以经济高效的方式为您处理一切。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #3: No Corporate Income Tax</p><p><blockquote>原因3：没有企业所得税</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>人们普遍认为出租房产比房地产投资信托基金投资更节税，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，房地产投资信托基金的税收效率非常高：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>They pay no corporate income tax.</li>  <li>They distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.</li>  <li>A portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.</li>  <li>The portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.</li>  <li>Generally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.</li> </ol> Berkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>他们不缴纳企业所得税。</li><li>他们分配60%-70%的现金，这意味着30%-40%不征税。</li><li>分配的一部分是“资本回报”，不征税。</li><li>征税的部分享受20%的扣除。</li><li>一般来说，房地产投资信托基金是更注重增长的房地产投资，因此，总回报的一半以上是递延税增值。</li></ol>伯克希尔的结构是C-corp，因此，它必须为其所有利润缴纳公司税。因此，房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说更具税收效率。</blockquote></p><p> Private rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.</p><p><blockquote>私人出租物业收益率较高，但增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> REITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金增长更快，但收益率较低。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔宁愿通过递延税增值来复利其资本，并避免为投资产生的收入缴纳公司税。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>原因4：波动性带来机遇</blockquote></p><p> Unsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.</p><p><blockquote>不成熟的个人投资者害怕波动性。他们过于短视，专注于每日报价，很快就会恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，他们往往喜欢出租物业，这给他们一种虚假的稳定感，由于缺乏报价。</blockquote></p><p> But professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的专业投资者欢迎波动性，并将其视为一份礼物。这让他们有机会以折扣价进行投资，从长远来看，这最终会带来更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的一次采访中，巴菲特解释说，房地产市场走势缓慢，因此很少发生大规模的错误定价。大多数业主都有长远的想法，在对各种房产的风险和回报潜力进行定价方面做得相当好。这使得像他这样的投资者更难获得异常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.</p><p><blockquote>有了REITs，机会就更频繁了。举个例子，早在2017年，STORE Capital就创造了新的创纪录业绩，但由于零售市场失宠，从30美元跌至20美元。市场没有意识到的是，STOR的收入主要来自服务型零售商，这些零售商对亚马逊(AMZN)具有弹性，而且其租约长达10多年。</blockquote></p><p> That was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的机会，伯克希尔抓住了它。STORE Capital前首席执行官Chris Volk在下面的视频中解释了这项投资的背景。跳到8:55部分：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是这个想法的幕后黑手，他们在STOR下跌后利用市场波动建立了自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Shortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，STOR康复了，为他们赢得的回报轻松超过了他们从普通租赁房产中获得的回报。</blockquote></p><p> When you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.</p><p><blockquote>当你像巴菲特一样有长远眼光时，波动性是一大优势，这解释了他为什么喜欢房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #5: Disconnect Between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">Public</a> and Private Market</p><p><blockquote>原因5：之间断开连接<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">公共的</a>和私人市场</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it all comes down to the price you pay.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这一切都取决于你付出的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>如今，房地产市场正在蓬勃发展，过去一年平均房价上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，房地产投资信托基金（VNQ）几乎没有从2020年经历的崩盘中恢复过来，许多单个房地产投资信托基金的定价仍比危机前水平低20、30甚至40%。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，房地产投资信托基金比私人房地产提供更好的价值，这解释了他为什么青睐房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>去年，伯克希尔加倍投资STORE Capital，此后该公司已恢复良好。他们拥有价值8.5亿美元的股权，占公司9%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> I bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，如果可以的话，伯克希尔过去会进行更多的房地产投资信托基金投资。但鉴于其庞大的规模和房地产投资信托基金严格的所有权限制，大多数房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说都太小了。</blockquote></p><p> That's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.</p><p><blockquote>这是个人投资者相对于巴菲特少有的优势之一。您可以自由投资任何房地产投资信托基金，无论其规模如何，并获得折扣和专业管理的房地产投资。</blockquote></p><p> Closing Note</p><p><blockquote>结束语</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>和巴菲特一样，我喜欢房地产投资信托基金投资，因为在大多数情况下，它们可以提供更好的风险和麻烦调整后回报。</blockquote></p><p> During the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:</p><p><blockquote>过去20年，平均年回报率在15%以上，一些个别REITs的表现甚至更好：</blockquote></p><p> Could I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.</p><p><blockquote>我能通过购买私人房产做得更好吗？我严重怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> And even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>即使我可以，为了赚取一些额外的回报点而接受更大的风险和麻烦值得吗？应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Warren Buffett Buys REITs Instead Of Rental Properties<blockquote>为什么沃伦·巴菲特购买房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁房产</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seeking alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.</li>  <li>In past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.</li>  <li>Most importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.</li>  <li>That's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.</li>  <li>Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »</li> </ul> Feverpitched/iStock via <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特历来青睐房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业。</li><li>在过去的股东大会上，他解释说，出于多种原因，他不喜欢私人房地产投资。</li><li>最重要的是，他在房地产方面没有优势，不想和管理层打交道，很难找到机会。</li><li>这就是他青睐房地产投资信托基金的原因，他去年才购买了房地产投资信托基金。</li><li>寻找这样的想法组合<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>？高收益房东的成员可以独家访问我们的模型投资组合。了解更多»</li></ul>Feverpitched/iStock来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">盖蒂</a>图像</blockquote></p><p> In previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的文章中，我解释过，尽管我有私募股权房地产投资背景，但我选择将资本投资于房地产投资信托基金，因为它们在大多数情况下更安全、回报更高。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金更安全，因为它们多元化、专业管理、流动性强，并且可以更好地获得资本。</blockquote></p><p> They're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:</p><p><blockquote>它们的回报也更高，因为它们享有巨大的规模经济、更快的增长，而且投资者支付的交易成本也低得多：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Study shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>研究表明，房地产投资信托基金的表现每年优于私人房地产约4%：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08211e86e46b7ccd368944f838ce3c87\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源</i></blockquote></p><p> In short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，REITs将房地产的好处（高收益、防通胀、升值）与股票的好处（流动性、低交易成本、专业化管理、多元化）结合成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>漂亮的车辆，提供比租赁物业更好的风险和麻烦调整回报。</blockquote></p><p> But don't take it just from me.</p><p><blockquote>但不要只从我这里拿走。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway</a> (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">General Growth Properties</a> ((now Brookfield (BPY)), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">Vornado</a> (VNO.PK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage Growth Properties</a> (SRG), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">STORE Capital</a> when it dropped following the covid market crash.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特可以建立租赁物业投资组合，但他选择投资房地产投资信托基金。审阅本公司过往年报<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔哈撒韦</a>（BRK.A）（BRK.B），我们发现他之前投资了Tanger Outlets（SKT），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GGP\">一般生长特性</a>（（现在布鲁克菲尔德（BPY）），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNO\">沃尔纳多</a>(VNO.PK),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRG\">Seritage生长特性</a>(SRG)，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>（STOR）除其他外。就在去年，他加倍下注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STOR\">商店资本</a>当它在covid市场崩盘后下跌时。</blockquote></p><p> Why doesn't he buy rentals instead?</p><p><blockquote>他为什么不买出租呢？</blockquote></p><p> That's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:</p><p><blockquote>这就是我们今天文章要探讨的。沃伦·巴菲特在过去的采访中经常讨论这个话题，在接下来的内容中，我们将讨论他更喜欢房地产投资信托基金而不是租赁物业的五个原因：</blockquote></p><p> Reason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence</p><p><blockquote>理由1：坚持你的能力圈</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广了这句格言：“了解你的能力圈，并坚持在其中。”</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，这个圆的大小远没有知道它的边界重要。</blockquote></p><p> Put differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，你不可能成为万事通，需要专攻某件事才能真正掌握它。</blockquote></p><p> For Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.</p><p><blockquote>对巴菲特来说，这主要是消费品和保险业务。毫不奇怪，他很少投资房地产（甚至房地产投资信托基金），因为这超出了他的能力范围。</blockquote></p><p> At a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.</p><p><blockquote>在一次股东大会上，当被问及投资房地产时，巴菲特和查理·芒格补充说，这是一个他们没有竞争优势的行业。他们解释说，房地产投资信托基金和大型私募股权公司将比他们拥有更好的资源、专业知识、规模和关系，如果他们试图投资房地产，伯克希尔将处于不利地位。</blockquote></p><p> This is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.</p><p><blockquote>这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">一</a>他们宁愿投资房地产投资信托基金股票的主要原因。它将他们与比他们拥有更好资源和专业知识的专业人士联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> As an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.</p><p><blockquote>例如，STORE Capitalis是中间市场售后回租交易的领导者。这是他们自己无法遵循的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash</p><p><blockquote>原因2：租户、厕所和垃圾</blockquote></p><p> In the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.</p><p><blockquote>在金融危机之后，巴菲特有一句名言，如果他有一种简单的方法来管理出租房产，他就会大量购买。</blockquote></p><p> Back then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.</p><p><blockquote>当时，房地产价格最近暴跌，有一个购买独栋房屋的大好机会。</blockquote></p><p> Even then, he didn't.</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他也没有。</blockquote></p><p> Why you might ask?</p><p><blockquote>你可能会问为什么？</blockquote></p><p> He explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.</p><p><blockquote>他解释说，出租物业的管理是一场噩梦。这是一项利润率相对较低的业务，规模不太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Imagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你拥有一套每月1000美元的出租屋。扣除所有费用后，您的NOI为（比方说）每月700美元，每年现金流为8,400美元。只需要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>不可预见的失望和你一整年的现金流可能会消失：一个拒绝付款也不愿搬家的房客...导致水毁的漏水屋顶...因寒冷气候而破裂的管道...</blockquote></p><p> Unless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.</p><p><blockquote>除非你喜欢大规模，降低你的物业管理成本，否则很难持续获得良好的回报，最重要的是，这是一个大多数人宁愿避免的大麻烦。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.</p><p><blockquote>有了房地产投资信托基金，您可以享受规模效益，并让专业经理以经济高效的方式为您处理一切。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #3: No Corporate Income Tax</p><p><blockquote>原因3：没有企业所得税</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>人们普遍认为出租房产比房地产投资信托基金投资更节税，但情况并非总是如此。</blockquote></p><p> REITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:</p><p><blockquote>仔细想想，房地产投资信托基金的税收效率非常高：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>They pay no corporate income tax.</li>  <li>They distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.</li>  <li>A portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.</li>  <li>The portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.</li>  <li>Generally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.</li> </ol> Berkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>他们不缴纳企业所得税。</li><li>他们分配60%-70%的现金，这意味着30%-40%不征税。</li><li>分配的一部分是“资本回报”，不征税。</li><li>征税的部分享受20%的扣除。</li><li>一般来说，房地产投资信托基金是更注重增长的房地产投资，因此，总回报的一半以上是递延税增值。</li></ol>伯克希尔的结构是C-corp，因此，它必须为其所有利润缴纳公司税。因此，房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说更具税收效率。</blockquote></p><p> Private rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.</p><p><blockquote>私人出租物业收益率较高，但增长较慢。</blockquote></p><p> REITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.</p><p><blockquote>房地产投资信托基金增长更快，但收益率较低。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔宁愿通过递延税增值来复利其资本，并避免为投资产生的收入缴纳公司税。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>原因4：波动性带来机遇</blockquote></p><p> Unsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.</p><p><blockquote>不成熟的个人投资者害怕波动性。他们过于短视，专注于每日报价，很快就会恐慌。</blockquote></p><p> For these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，他们往往喜欢出租物业，这给他们一种虚假的稳定感，由于缺乏报价。</blockquote></p><p> But professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.</p><p><blockquote>但像沃伦·巴菲特这样的专业投资者欢迎波动性，并将其视为一份礼物。这让他们有机会以折扣价进行投资，从长远来看，这最终会带来更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.</p><p><blockquote>在之前的一次采访中，巴菲特解释说，房地产市场走势缓慢，因此很少发生大规模的错误定价。大多数业主都有长远的想法，在对各种房产的风险和回报潜力进行定价方面做得相当好。这使得像他这样的投资者更难获得异常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p> With REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.</p><p><blockquote>有了REITs，机会就更频繁了。举个例子，早在2017年，STORE Capital就创造了新的创纪录业绩，但由于零售市场失宠，从30美元跌至20美元。市场没有意识到的是，STOR的收入主要来自服务型零售商，这些零售商对亚马逊(AMZN)具有弹性，而且其租约长达10多年。</blockquote></p><p> That was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很好的机会，伯克希尔抓住了它。STORE Capital前首席执行官Chris Volk在下面的视频中解释了这项投资的背景。跳到8:55部分：</blockquote></p><p> Buffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特是这个想法的幕后黑手，他们在STOR下跌后利用市场波动建立了自己的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Shortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.</p><p><blockquote>不久之后，STOR康复了，为他们赢得的回报轻松超过了他们从普通租赁房产中获得的回报。</blockquote></p><p> When you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.</p><p><blockquote>当你像巴菲特一样有长远眼光时，波动性是一大优势，这解释了他为什么喜欢房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Reason #5: Disconnect Between <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">Public</a> and Private Market</p><p><blockquote>原因5：之间断开连接<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00626\">公共的</a>和私人市场</blockquote></p><p> Finally, it all comes down to the price you pay.</p><p><blockquote>最后，这一切都取决于你付出的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.</p><p><blockquote>如今，房地产市场正在蓬勃发展，过去一年平均房价上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，房地产投资信托基金（VNQ）几乎没有从2020年经历的崩盘中恢复过来，许多单个房地产投资信托基金的定价仍比危机前水平低20、30甚至40%。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，房地产投资信托基金比私人房地产提供更好的价值，这解释了他为什么青睐房地产投资信托基金。</blockquote></p><p> Last year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>去年，伯克希尔加倍投资STORE Capital，此后该公司已恢复良好。他们拥有价值8.5亿美元的股权，占公司9%的股份。</blockquote></p><p> I bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，如果可以的话，伯克希尔过去会进行更多的房地产投资信托基金投资。但鉴于其庞大的规模和房地产投资信托基金严格的所有权限制，大多数房地产投资信托基金对伯克希尔来说都太小了。</blockquote></p><p> That's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.</p><p><blockquote>这是个人投资者相对于巴菲特少有的优势之一。您可以自由投资任何房地产投资信托基金，无论其规模如何，并获得折扣和专业管理的房地产投资。</blockquote></p><p> Closing Note</p><p><blockquote>结束语</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>和巴菲特一样，我喜欢房地产投资信托基金投资，因为在大多数情况下，它们可以提供更好的风险和麻烦调整后回报。</blockquote></p><p> During the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:</p><p><blockquote>过去20年，平均年回报率在15%以上，一些个别REITs的表现甚至更好：</blockquote></p><p> Could I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.</p><p><blockquote>我能通过购买私人房产做得更好吗？我严重怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> And even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>即使我可以，为了赚取一些额外的回报点而接受更大的风险和麻烦值得吗？应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437280-why-warren-buffett-buys-reits-instead-of-rental-properties\">seeking alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437280-why-warren-buffett-buys-reits-instead-of-rental-properties","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154888582","content_text":"Summary\n\nWarren Buffett has a history of favoring REITs over rental properties.\nIn past shareholder meetings, he explains that he dislikes private real estate investments for a number of reasons.\nMost importantly, he has no edge in real estate, does not want to deal with the management, and finds it difficult to find opportunities.\nThat's why he favors REITs, which he bought as recently as last year.\nLooking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of High Yield Landlord get exclusive access to our model portfolio.Learn More »\n\nFeverpitched/iStock via Getty Images\nIn previousarticles, I have explained that despite having a background in private equity real estate investing, I chose to invest my capital into REITs because they're safer and more rewarding in most cases.\nREITs are safer because they're well diversified, professionally managed, liquid, and have better access to capital.\nThey're also more rewarding because they enjoy large economies of scale, faster growth, and investors pay much lower transaction costs:\nStudy shows that REITs outperform private real estate by ~4% per year:\n\nSource\nIn short, REITs combine the benefits of real estate (high income, inflation protection, appreciation) with the benefits of stocks (liquidity, low transaction cost, professional management, diversification) into one beautiful vehicle that provides better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns than rental properties.\nBut don't take it just from me.\nWarren Buffett could build a portfolio of rental properties, and yet, he chooses to invest in REITs instead. By reviewing past annual reports of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B), we find that he has previously invested in Tanger Outlets (SKT), General Growth Properties ((now Brookfield (BPY)), Vornado (VNO.PK), Seritage Growth Properties (SRG), and STORE Capital (STOR) among others. As recently as last year, he doubled down on STORE Capital when it dropped following the covid market crash.\nWhy doesn't he buy rentals instead?\nThat's what we will explore in today's article. Warren Buffett has often discussed this topic in past interviews, and in what follows, we will discuss the five reasons why he favors REITs over rental properties:\nReason #1: Stick to Your Circle of Competence\nWarren Buffett popularized the motto: \"Know your circle of competence, and stick within it.\"\nHe explains that the size of that circle is much less important than knowing its boundaries.\nPut differently, you cannot be a jack of all trades and need to specialize in something to truly master it.\nFor Buffett, this was mainly consumer goods and the insurance business. Not surprisingly, he rarely invests in real estate (or even REITs) because that's out of his circle of competence.\nAt a shareholdermeeting, when questioned about investing in real estate, Buffett and Charlie Munger added that it's a sector in which they have no competitive advantage. They explain that REITs and large private equity firms would have better resources, expertise, scale, and relationships than them, putting Berkshire at a disadvantage if they tried to invest in real estate.\nThis is one of the main reasons why they rather invest in the shares of REITs. It aligns them with professionals who have better resources and expertise than them.\nAs an example, STORE Capitalis the leader in sale-and-leaseback transactions in middle markets. It's a strategy that they couldn't follow on their own.\nReason #2: Tenants, Toilets, and Trash\nIn the aftermath of the great financial crisis, Buffett famouslysaidthat if he had an easy way of managing rental properties, he would load up on them.\nBack then, property prices had recently crashed and there was a great opportunity to buy single-family houses.\nEven then, he didn't.\nWhy you might ask?\nHe explains that the management of rental properties is a nightmare. It's a relatively low margin business that does not scale nicely.\nImagine you own a rental that you rent for $1,000 per month. After you have removed all expenses, your NOI is (let's say) $700 per month, resulting in an annual cash flow of $8,400. All it takes is one unforeseen disappointment and your entire year's cash flow could be gone: A tenant who refuses to pay and won't move... a leaking roof that causes water damage... pipes that bust due to cold climate...\nUnless you enjoy large-scale, lowering your property management cost, it's difficult to consistently earn good returns, and on top of that, it's a big hassle that most people would rather avoid.\nWith REITs, you enjoy the benefits of scale and have professional managers handle everything for you in a cost-effective way.\nReason #3: No Corporate Income Tax\nInvestors commonly think that rental properties are more tax-efficient than REIT investments, but that's not always the case.\nREITs are very tax efficient when you really think about it:\n\nThey pay no corporate income tax.\nThey distribute 60%-70% of their cash, meaning that 30%-40% isn't taxed.\nA portion of the distribution is \"return of capital,\" which isn't taxed.\nThe portion that's taxed enjoys a 20% deduction.\nGenerally, REITs are more growth-oriented real estate investments, and therefore, more than half of the total return is tax-deferred appreciation.\n\nBerkshire is structured as a C-corp, and therefore, it must pay corporate tax on all its profits. For this reason, REITs are more tax efficient for Berkshire.\nPrivate rental properties enjoy higher yields, but slower growth.\nREITs enjoy faster growth, but lower yields.\nBerkshire would rather compound its capital via tax-deferred appreciation and avoid having to pay corporate taxes on the income generated by the investment.\nReason #4: Volatility Brings Opportunities\nUnsophisticated individual investors fear volatility. They're excessively short-term minded, fixate on daily quotes, and are quick to panic.\nFor these reasons, they often favor rental properties which give them a false sense of stability due to the lack of quotation.\nBut professional investors like Warren Buffett welcome the volatility and see it as a gift. It gives them the opportunity to make investments at a discounted price, which will ultimately result in higher returns in the long run.\nIn a previousinterview, Buffett explains that the real estate market moves slowly, and therefore, it's rare for large mispricing to occur. Most property owners are long-term minded and do a reasonably good job at pricing the risk and reward potential of various properties. It makes it harder for investors like him to earn abnormally strong returns.\nWith REITs, there are more frequent opportunities. As an example, back in 2017, STORE Capital produced new record results, but it dropped from $30 to $20 because the retail market was out-of-favor. What the market failed to realize is that STOR earns revenue from mainly service-oriented retailers that are resilient to Amazon (AMZN) and its leases were 10+ years long.\nThat was a great opportunity and Berkshire seized it. Chris Volk, former CEO of STORE Capital explains the background to this investment in the below video. Skip to the 8:55 section:\nBuffett was behind the idea and they build their position in STOR after it had dropped, taking advantage of the market volatility.\nShortly after, STOR recovered, earning them a return that easily beat what they would have gotten from a regular rental property.\nWhen you are long-term minded like Buffett, volatility is a big plus and it explains why he likes REITs.\nReason #5: Disconnect Between Public and Private Market\nFinally, it all comes down to the price you pay.\nToday, the housing market is booming with the average home appreciating by16%over the past year.\nOn the other hand, REITs (VNQ) are barely recovering from the crash they endured in 2020, and many individual REITs are still priced at a 20, 30, or even 40% discount to pre-crisis levels.\nPut simply, REITs offer better value than private real estate, and that explains why he favors REITs.\nLast year, Berkshire doubled down on STORE Capital, which has since then nicely recovered. They own $850 million worth of equity, representing 9% of the company.\nI bet that Berkshire would have made many more REIT investments over the past if it could. But given its large size and the strict ownership limits on REITs, most of them are too small for Berkshire.\nThat's one of the rare advantages that individual investors have over Buffett. You can freely invest in just any REIT, regardless of its size, and gain exposure to discounted and professionally managed real estate.\nClosing Note\nJust like Buffett, I favor REIT investments because they provide better risk-and-hassle adjusted returns in most cases.\nDuring the past 20 years, the average annual returns have been upward of 15%, with some individual REITs doing even better than that:\nCould I do better by buying private properties? I seriously doubt it.\nAnd even if I could, would it be worth it to accept much greater risk and hassle to earn a few extra points of return? Probably not.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817351537,"gmtCreate":1630911839929,"gmtModify":1632905175122,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130656472","repostId":"2136010949","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375130538,"gmtCreate":1619314257424,"gmtModify":1634274331869,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think so","listText":"I think so","text":"I think 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thansk","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132702416","repostId":"1142769404","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102092446,"gmtCreate":1620165961885,"gmtModify":1634207404500,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me","listText":"Help me","text":"Help me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102092446","repostId":"1121437206","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121437206","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1620141918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121437206?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 'Perfect Storm' That Led Dogecoin To 60 Cents<blockquote>将狗狗币推至60美分的“完美风暴”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121437206","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Dogecoin's(CRYPTO: DOGE) price increased nearly 55% from its 24-hour low of $0.3838 all the way to t","content":"<p><b>Dogecoin's</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE) price increased nearly 55% from its 24-hour low of $0.3838 all the way to the 60-cent market Tuesday morning, according to CoinMarketCap data. This growth came right after the coinreporteda new all-time high of $0.45 Monday evening.</p><p><blockquote><b>狗狗币的</b>根据CoinMarketCap的数据，（CRYPTO：DOGE）价格从24小时低点0.3838美元上涨近55%，一直上涨至周二上午的60美分。这一增长是在周一晚间CoinReported创下0.45美元的历史新高之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>The uptrend also closely follows Monday's&nbsp;announcementby Dave Kaval — president of Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics — that the team processed its first Dogecoin payment in exchange for tickets in the league's history. He even invoked the #DogecoinToTheMoon hashtag while linking to the team's announcement about match seats being sold in exchange for the coin.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>这一上升趋势也紧随美国职业棒球大联盟奥克兰运动家队主席戴夫·卡瓦尔(Dave Kaval)周一宣布，该队处理了联盟历史上首次狗狗币支付以换取门票。他甚至引用了#DogecoinToTheMoon标签，同时链接到球队关于出售比赛席位以换取硬币的公告。</blockquote></p><p> With Tuesday's high of over $76 billion, Dogecoin's market cap surpassed the market capitalization of major companies.&nbsp;Ben Weiss — the&nbsp;CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency ATM operator operating over 2,300 machines — explained that the primary reason behind Dogecoin's ascent is the current climate in the&nbsp;crypto market overall.</p><p><blockquote>随着周二超过760亿美元的高点，Dogecoin的市值超过了主要公司的市值。运营着2300多台机器的加密货币ATM运营商的首席执行官兼联合创始人Ben Weiss解释说，Dogecoin崛起背后的主要原因是加密市场当前的整体气候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It's Important:</b>Weiss&nbsp;highlighted the promotion of Dogecoin by major personalities such as<b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Mark Cuban are other factors that largely contributed to the coin's price increasing. He also cited the crypto asset becoming more easily obtainable and&nbsp;a more surprising reason.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>韦斯强调了主要人物对狗狗币的推广，例如<b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）首席执行官Elon Musk和Mark Cuban是在很大程度上导致代币价格上涨的其他因素。他还列举了加密资产变得越来越容易获得以及一个更令人惊讶的原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many people view Doge as the 'people's cryptocurrency' because it was created as a joke,\"&nbsp;Weiss said in an email statement.&nbsp;\"Major players and corporations are unlikely to buy in and manipulate the market or understand that it could be a viable currency. Elon has echoed this sentiment. These factors have created a perfect storm for Doge, pumping the price to where it is today.\"</p><p><blockquote>“许多人将Doge视为‘人民的加密货币’，因为它被创造出来只是一个玩笑，”韦斯在一份电子邮件声明中表示，“主要参与者和公司不太可能买入并操纵市场，也不太可能理解它可能是一种可行的货币。埃隆也认同这种情绪。这些因素为Doge创造了一场完美的风暴，将价格推到了今天。”</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin's rise comes as the total cap of the crypto asset market hasreached$2.3 trillion, making it larger than the market capitalization of any company and possibly any asset except for gold.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币上涨之际，加密资产市场的总市值已达到2.3万亿美元，超过了任何公司的市值，也可能超过了除黄金以外的任何资产的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin itself recentlyreached&nbsp;a&nbsp;market cap of nearly $54.45 billion. And that's a currency the creator of which did not expect to go anywhere, as he showed when hesoldall of his holdings for enough to buy a used Honda Civic in 2015.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币本身最近的市值达到了近544.5亿美元。这种货币的创造者并不指望它会去任何地方，正如他在2015年出售所有资产足以购买一辆二手本田思域时所展示的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin trades around $0.5466 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote>截至发稿时，狗狗币的交易价格约为0.5466美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 'Perfect Storm' That Led Dogecoin To 60 Cents<blockquote>将狗狗币推至60美分的“完美风暴”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 'Perfect Storm' That Led Dogecoin To 60 Cents<blockquote>将狗狗币推至60美分的“完美风暴”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-04 23:25</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Dogecoin's</b>(CRYPTO: DOGE) price increased nearly 55% from its 24-hour low of $0.3838 all the way to the 60-cent market Tuesday morning, according to CoinMarketCap data. This growth came right after the coinreporteda new all-time high of $0.45 Monday evening.</p><p><blockquote><b>狗狗币的</b>根据CoinMarketCap的数据，（CRYPTO：DOGE）价格从24小时低点0.3838美元上涨近55%，一直上涨至周二上午的60美分。这一增长是在周一晚间CoinReported创下0.45美元的历史新高之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b>The uptrend also closely follows Monday's&nbsp;announcementby Dave Kaval — president of Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics — that the team processed its first Dogecoin payment in exchange for tickets in the league's history. He even invoked the #DogecoinToTheMoon hashtag while linking to the team's announcement about match seats being sold in exchange for the coin.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么：</b>这一上升趋势也紧随美国职业棒球大联盟奥克兰运动家队主席戴夫·卡瓦尔(Dave Kaval)周一宣布，该队处理了联盟历史上首次狗狗币支付以换取门票。他甚至引用了#DogecoinToTheMoon标签，同时链接到球队关于出售比赛席位以换取硬币的公告。</blockquote></p><p> With Tuesday's high of over $76 billion, Dogecoin's market cap surpassed the market capitalization of major companies.&nbsp;Ben Weiss — the&nbsp;CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency ATM operator operating over 2,300 machines — explained that the primary reason behind Dogecoin's ascent is the current climate in the&nbsp;crypto market overall.</p><p><blockquote>随着周二超过760亿美元的高点，Dogecoin的市值超过了主要公司的市值。运营着2300多台机器的加密货币ATM运营商的首席执行官兼联合创始人Ben Weiss解释说，Dogecoin崛起背后的主要原因是加密市场当前的整体气候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It's Important:</b>Weiss&nbsp;highlighted the promotion of Dogecoin by major personalities such as<b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Mark Cuban are other factors that largely contributed to the coin's price increasing. He also cited the crypto asset becoming more easily obtainable and&nbsp;a more surprising reason.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要：</b>韦斯强调了主要人物对狗狗币的推广，例如<b>特斯拉公司</b>（纳斯达克：TSLA）首席执行官Elon Musk和Mark Cuban是在很大程度上导致代币价格上涨的其他因素。他还列举了加密资产变得越来越容易获得以及一个更令人惊讶的原因。</blockquote></p><p> \"Many people view Doge as the 'people's cryptocurrency' because it was created as a joke,\"&nbsp;Weiss said in an email statement.&nbsp;\"Major players and corporations are unlikely to buy in and manipulate the market or understand that it could be a viable currency. Elon has echoed this sentiment. These factors have created a perfect storm for Doge, pumping the price to where it is today.\"</p><p><blockquote>“许多人将Doge视为‘人民的加密货币’，因为它被创造出来只是一个玩笑，”韦斯在一份电子邮件声明中表示，“主要参与者和公司不太可能买入并操纵市场，也不太可能理解它可能是一种可行的货币。埃隆也认同这种情绪。这些因素为Doge创造了一场完美的风暴，将价格推到了今天。”</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin's rise comes as the total cap of the crypto asset market hasreached$2.3 trillion, making it larger than the market capitalization of any company and possibly any asset except for gold.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币上涨之际，加密资产市场的总市值已达到2.3万亿美元，超过了任何公司的市值，也可能超过了除黄金以外的任何资产的市值。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin itself recentlyreached&nbsp;a&nbsp;market cap of nearly $54.45 billion. And that's a currency the creator of which did not expect to go anywhere, as he showed when hesoldall of his holdings for enough to buy a used Honda Civic in 2015.</p><p><blockquote>狗狗币本身最近的市值达到了近544.5亿美元。这种货币的创造者并不指望它会去任何地方，正如他在2015年出售所有资产足以购买一辆二手本田思域时所展示的那样。</blockquote></p><p> Dogecoin trades around $0.5466 at publication time.</p><p><blockquote>截至发稿时，狗狗币的交易价格约为0.5466美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121437206","content_text":"Dogecoin's(CRYPTO: DOGE) price increased nearly 55% from its 24-hour low of $0.3838 all the way to the 60-cent market Tuesday morning, according to CoinMarketCap data. This growth came right after the coinreporteda new all-time high of $0.45 Monday evening.\nWhat Happened:The uptrend also closely follows Monday's announcementby Dave Kaval — president of Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics — that the team processed its first Dogecoin payment in exchange for tickets in the league's history. He even invoked the #DogecoinToTheMoon hashtag while linking to the team's announcement about match seats being sold in exchange for the coin.\nWith Tuesday's high of over $76 billion, Dogecoin's market cap surpassed the market capitalization of major companies. Ben Weiss — the CEO and co-founder of cryptocurrency ATM operator operating over 2,300 machines — explained that the primary reason behind Dogecoin's ascent is the current climate in the crypto market overall.\nWhy It's Important:Weiss highlighted the promotion of Dogecoin by major personalities such asTesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Mark Cuban are other factors that largely contributed to the coin's price increasing. He also cited the crypto asset becoming more easily obtainable and a more surprising reason.\n\"Many people view Doge as the 'people's cryptocurrency' because it was created as a joke,\" Weiss said in an email statement. \"Major players and corporations are unlikely to buy in and manipulate the market or understand that it could be a viable currency. Elon has echoed this sentiment. These factors have created a perfect storm for Doge, pumping the price to where it is today.\"\nDogecoin's rise comes as the total cap of the crypto asset market hasreached$2.3 trillion, making it larger than the market capitalization of any company and possibly any asset except for gold.\nDogecoin itself recentlyreached a market cap of nearly $54.45 billion. And that's a currency the creator of which did not expect to go anywhere, as he showed when hesoldall of his holdings for enough to buy a used Honda Civic in 2015.\nDogecoin trades around $0.5466 at publication time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167950649,"gmtCreate":1624243675781,"gmtModify":1634008983161,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167950649","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming<blockquote>苹果：冬天来了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 10:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>  <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>  <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。</li><li>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。</li><li>从技术分析角度来看，股价正遵循上升三角形形态，正向137美元/股的目标价迈进。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael M.Santiago/Getty Images新闻公司概述</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司(AAPL)股价在过去五年中上涨了449%，跑赢了标普500同期102%的涨幅。由基本面支持的出色回报。我特别想从后者开始分析。</blockquote></p><p> Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的二十年里，苹果成功的主要驱动力一直是iPhone。2016年，iPhone占总销量的63%。这对苹果来说是个问题，他们知道这一点。这个问题的存在主要有两个因素：第一，智能手机业务已经成熟（增长率较低）；其次，它过去是（现在也是）一个竞争激烈的行业。然而，苹果拥有其他竞争对手所没有的东西，即庞大的iPhone用户群（例如，这允许销售更多服务）。多年来，苹果一直能够有效地实现其收入来源多元化，目前的结构如下所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看这些部分：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. iPhone</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.iPhone</b></blockquote></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>自2016年至2020年，iPhone分部的复合年增长率为0.20%，并由佔总销售额的63.4%（2016年）变为51%（“TTM”）。我在下面展示了iPhone细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告的数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，在具有5G功能的新iPhone12系列以及来自中国的有趣数据的推动下，iPhone细分市场的TTM增长率为18.5%。我相信向5G的过渡将是该细分市场增长的主要驱动力。我想以这种方式报告第二季度收益看涨期权的一段文字记录。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>  <b>2. iPad</b></p><p><blockquote><i>在企业市场，许多行业的客户都在加速采用iPhone 12和5G，将其作为未来业务的关键平台。例如，达美航空正在将iPhone 12和5G连接交给空乘人员，以便他们能够在航空旅行反弹时提供尽可能最好的乘客服务。英国的Openreach已开始为数万名现场工程师配备iPhone 12加快向全国家庭部署宽带服务。科罗拉多州的一家大型医疗保健提供商UCHealth能够将每位患者的疫苗接种时间从3分钟减少到30秒，这主要是通过从PC工作站转移到iPhone。这使得他们的工作人员能够快速扫描和登记新患者，并大大提高他们的日常疫苗接种能力。</i><b>2.iPad</b></blockquote></p><p> As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>与过去一样，iPad细分市场占总销售额的百分比或多或少是一个恒定的数字，2016年为9.6%，而TTM为9.1%。从2016年到2020年，iPad细分市场的CAGR增长率为3.56%（整体趋势有所改善）。我在下面展示了iPad细分市场在过去5年（2016-TTM）的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p><p><blockquote>TTM数据向我们展示了一幅有趣的画面，iPad细分市场的TTM增长率为24.9%，这是由三个因素推动的：M1芯片、新的5G功能以及我们都在家的事实。我看到了很多实现新一代iPads的方法。不过，我也不得不承认，还有一个大玩家在同一个海里游泳，那就是新的2-1笔记本电脑。对于那些希望两全其美的人来说，新的2-1笔记本电脑是一个非常有趣的解决方案。在最后一种观点中，iPad细分市场占总销售额的比例可能较低，约为7.8%（目前为9.1%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Mac</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.三月</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>从2016年到2020年，Mac细分市场的CAGR增长率为5.81%，与iPad细分市场一样，Mac细分市场在2016年占总销售额的比例为10.6%，而TTM为10.4%。我在下面介绍了过去5年（2016-TTM）Mac细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p><p><blockquote>采用M1芯片的新一代Mac似乎受到了客户的赞赏，事实上，今年迄今为止，Mac细分市场的TTM增长率为18.4%。我亲自尝试了这款新一代MAC电脑，我不得不承认，苹果非常知道如何取悦顾客。个人电脑是一个竞争激烈的市场，即使我喜欢并使用苹果产品，我也更喜欢与联想合作。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.可穿戴设备、家居和配件（WH&amp;A）</b></blockquote></p><p> The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门包括AirPods、苹果电视、苹果手表、Beats产品、HomePod等的销售。这就是有趣的地方。从2016年到2020年，WH&amp;A分部的复合年增长率为28.78%，从2016年仅占总销售额的5.2%变为占TTM的10.8%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）WH&amp;A细分市场的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p><p><blockquote>在苹果手表系列6和苹果手表SE的强劲表现的推动下，WH&amp;A细分市场的TTM增长率为14.7%。在苹果进入医疗保健市场的推动下，苹果观察在未来几年可能会有一个非常光明的未来。事实上，它可以用来监测人的健康状况。想象一下，你即将心脏病发作，你的苹果手表可能会看涨期权一辆救护车并挽救你的生命，不错不是吗？最后，我们不要忘记苹果电视4K和最新配件AirTag的推出（我没有看到后者的市场，但我可能是错的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p><p><blockquote>服务包括公司广告、AppleCare、数字内容和其他服务的销售。于二零一六年至二零二零年，服务分部的复合年增长率为21.9%，并由二零一六年佔总销售额的11.3%变为佔TTM的18.6%。我在下面列出了过去5年（2016-TTM）服务部门的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，服务部门的TTM增长率为12.3%。这一增长是由应用商店、云服务、音乐、广告和支付服务推动的。苹果TV+、苹果街机、苹果新闻+和苹果卡等新服务也开始为整体服务增长做出贡献，并继续增加用户、内容和功能。我相信，未来，服务板块将是公司的主导板块。下面我展示了我从第四季度收益看涨期权中推断出来的有趣部分。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>  <b>Company Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><i>首先，我们的安装基础持续增长，并且在每个主要产品类别中都处于历史最高水平。其次，我们数字内容商店上的交易账户和付费账户数量在9月份季度均创下历史新高，每个地理区域的付费账户均以两位数增长。第三，付费订阅量环比增长超过3500万，目前我们平台上的服务付费订阅量超过5.85亿，比一年前增加了1.35亿。凭借这一势头，我们非常有信心在2020年底前达到并超过6亿付费订阅的增加目标。</i><b>公司分析</b></blockquote></p><p> I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p><p><blockquote>我给予苹果中性评级，公允价值为111.42美元/股（当前价格为131.7美元/股）。公允价值是算法调整后的价值，考虑了不同的因素，基本面和技术面（如DCF公允价值、动量等）。），因此它考虑了市场先生的情绪。同时，我通过DCF模型获得的公允价值等于105.68美元/股。现在，在显示结果之前，用作基数的数字是过去12个月的数字。此外，我还重述了财务数据，因为我将可摊销期限为3年的研发费用资本化。我不认为就苹果而言，研发是一项运营费用，因此，我将其视为资本支出。考虑到研发，以下指标已被重述（所有数字均以百万美元为单位）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>利用研发费用非常重要，如果我们不这样做，我们只是将公司最大的资产保留在资产负债表之外。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>折现现金流量模型</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们转向贴现现金流估值部分。下面，你可以看到我所做的相对假设的结果。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p><p><blockquote>现在，这次我还提出了三种可能的情况以及我的估计：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>  <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>  <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li> </ul> Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>基本情况</i>：上面的DCF模型代表了我的基本情况。在基本情况下，我假设增长的驱动力是：iPhone细分市场（由5G过渡驱动）、服务细分市场（由更广泛的客户群驱动）和新的M1 MAC细分市场。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为12%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为7.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为27%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为105.68美元/股。</li><li><i>最佳情况</i>：生意火爆！在最好的情况下，我再次将我在基本情况中描述的主要驱动因素视为主要驱动因素，但是，此外，我还看到中国的市场渗透率更高。在过去的5年里，我们可以观察到中国的销售额呈下降趋势，然而，今年的销售额增长了39.7%（iPhone细分市场大幅增长）。在这种情况下，我假设Y1增长率为14%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为9.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为30%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为130.32美元/股。</li><li><i>最坏的情况</i>：嗯，这是一个我想看涨期权为“成熟公司场景”的场景。在这种情况下，我认为苹果的增长略高于经济增长率，因此，我假设Y1增长率为10%，Y2-Y5复合年增长率为3.1%，Y10的目标营业利润率为25%。在这种情况下，DCF公允价值为81.03美元/股。</li></ul>最后，对于每种情况，我都看到苹果凭借其苹果手表进入医疗保健市场。正如你可以想象的那样，我在每种情况下分配了不同的市场渗透可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>敏感性分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我还想提供基本情况的敏感性分析。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用最新10-K报告数据进行的估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术分析</b></blockquote></p><p> From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p><p><blockquote>从技术分析的角度来看，我还没有看到任何问题。股价处于看涨模式，目前处于上升三角形形态。截至目前，股价正在遵循其模式，正朝着137美元/股或D点的目标价迈进，在那里它可能会反弹并回到E点。如果这种情况发生，E点通常是股价再次反弹的点，从该点开始，股票走高（这只是一个技术分析假设，照原样）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一家成熟的公司，能够在未来几年发现问题并解决它。通过查看在基本情况下计算的公允价值，我们可以认为该股票目前被高估，但没有高估那么多。对于什么关注风险，最好情况和最坏情况之间的差异可以用作风险的代理。考虑到这一点，我认为没有什么理由恐慌，但是，我确实看到市场即将出现调整。许多技术和基本面指标都向我表明，市场目前过于沉重（即使标准普尔500指数可能会走高，也许会在4400点区域）。总而言之，我不认为要平仓我的整个苹果头寸，但是，一旦达到我的价格目标，我会平仓其中的60%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166851677,"gmtCreate":1624003600499,"gmtModify":1634024275878,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment thanks","listText":"Like and comment thanks","text":"Like and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166851677","repostId":"1118915240","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118915240","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624003162,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118915240?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 15:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118915240","media":"benzinga","summary":"CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday.What Happened:Kemula told FT the German vaccine developer is still hopeful the jab could be offered to certain age groups or as a booster after data from CureVac’s late-stage trial of its international first-generation vaccine candidateshowed that it had only47% efficacy.“There is a lot of need for vaccines ou","content":"<p><div> CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据英国《金融时报》周四报道，CureVac N.V.首席财务官Pierre Kemula对其COVID-19疫苗仍可提供给某些年龄组或作为加强剂持乐观态度。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Partner CureVac Says Will Find 'Sweet Spot' For COVID-19 Vaccine Despite Disappointing Data<blockquote>特斯拉合作伙伴CureVac表示，尽管数据令人失望，但仍将找到COVID-19疫苗的“最佳点”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 15:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday. What ...</p><p><blockquote><div>据英国《金融时报》周四报道，CureVac N.V.首席财务官Pierre Kemula对其COVID-19疫苗仍可提供给某些年龄组或作为加强剂持乐观态度。什么...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data\">benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CVAC":"CureVac B.V."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/21/06/21620566/tesla-partner-curevac-says-will-find-sweet-spot-for-covid-19-vaccine-despite-disappointing-data","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118915240","content_text":"CureVac N.V.’s Chief Financial Officer Pierre Kemula is optimistic its COVID-19 vaccine could still be offered to certain age groups or as a booster, the Financial Timesreportedon Thursday.\nWhat Happened:Kemula told FT the German vaccine developer is still hopeful the jab could be offered to certain age groups or as a booster after data from CureVac’s late-stage trial of its international first-generation vaccine candidateshowed that it had only47% efficacy.\n“There is a lot of need for vaccines out there,” Kemula said, adding it will work with the agencies to find a “sweet spot” for the vaccine usage, as per the report.\nWhy It Matters:Expectations were running high for CureVac, in which the German government bought a 23% stake to allay concerns it could move to the United States. CureVac’s vaccine program disappointment comes at a time when a handful of vaccines are already in the market through the emergency authorization route.\nThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration has recently revised vaccine review guidelines, deciding not to entertain emergency use applications. Instead, the agency is now contemplating review only through the full approval process route, necessitating more detailed data.\nCureVac has acollaboration with Tesla Inc for vaccine printers. In April, Elon Musk in a tweet suggested CureVac was “a few months away from regulatory approval,” but deleted it soon after.\nPrice Action:CureVac shares dived 39% to close at $57.83 on Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"CVAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183191446,"gmtCreate":1623313045085,"gmtModify":1634034687929,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183191446","repostId":"1105458663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112327530,"gmtCreate":1622852575520,"gmtModify":1634097432371,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112327530","repostId":"2141029407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111660231,"gmtCreate":1622679103623,"gmtModify":1634099293471,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111660231","repostId":"2140102614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113379676,"gmtCreate":1622596077695,"gmtModify":1634100119170,"author":{"id":"3581651271010576","authorId":"3581651271010576","name":"Kelvin17","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad690dc5b75f93cb92a855c9ee59cee","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581651271010576","idStr":"3581651271010576"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113379676","repostId":"1135738233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}