Abu888的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Abu888

Abu888

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

28关注

5粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-17

Like my comments thsnks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-16

Like my comment thanks

3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote>

2021-09-15

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-14

Like my comments thanks

Brace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote>

2021-09-13

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-12

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-11

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

Like my comments thanks

Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>

2021-09-09

Like my comnent

Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

2021-09-09

Like my comments thsnks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

Like my comment thanks

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Like my comments

Melt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>

2021-09-04

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-03

Like my comments thanks

FuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading<blockquote>FuboTV股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%</blockquote>

2021-09-02

Like my comments thnaks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-01

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-28

Like my comments thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-27

Pls like my comment thanks

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581658741892979","uuid":"3581658741892979","gmtCreate":1618568752010,"gmtModify":1627607656333,"name":"Abu888","pinyin":"abu888","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":28,"tweetSize":50,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":884683622,"gmtCreate":1631887000466,"gmtModify":1632805569760,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thsnks","listText":"Like my comments thsnks","text":"Like my comments thsnks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":93,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884683622","repostId":"2168783315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885606416,"gmtCreate":1631781443235,"gmtModify":1631883968966,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment thanks","listText":"Like my comment thanks","text":"Like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885606416","repostId":"1195990706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195990706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631781148,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195990706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195990706","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are three healthcare stocks as nominees for a quick double in 2021.","content":"<p>Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.</p><p><blockquote>短期内任何事情都可能发生，所以说一只股票肯定会快速翻倍是愚蠢的。尽管如此，这些Fool.com撰稿人还是看好这三只医疗保健股，并且有理由保持短期乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Read more to find out why we think&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX),&nbsp;<b>Sorrento Therapeutics</b>(NASDAQ:SRNE), and&nbsp;<b>InMode</b>(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.</p><p><blockquote>阅读更多内容，了解我们为什么认为<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX），<b>索伦托治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：SRNE），以及<b>InMode</b>（纳斯达克：INMD）将轰轰烈烈地结束2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7858be2535b72fb5033e8b4d227614\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一、多重催化剂让诺瓦瓦克斯股价在2021年大涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Taylor Carmichael(Novavax):</b>Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔（Novavax）：</b>Novavax股价今年已经翻了一番，从1月份的112美元上涨至本周的233美元。但是油箱里还有很多油，我预计到今年年底还会增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Right now,<b>Moderna</b>&nbsp;enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.</p><p><blockquote>现在，<b>现代</b>市值为1690亿美元，<b>BioNTech</b>估值为790亿美元。与此同时，Novavax的市值为170亿美元，非常便宜。当然，不同之处在于，mRNA生物技术公司的两种COVID-19疫苗现在都已上市，而Novavax仍在等待其首次紧急使用授权。但当政府机构开始允许Novavax分发其COVID-19疫苗时，该股将真正开始飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.</p><p><blockquote>世界上大多数人口仍然没有接种疫苗。Novavax将在2022年准备分发20亿剂疫苗。该生物技术公司在世界各地签订了多项供应协议：向美国供应1亿剂，向日本供应1.5亿剂，向欧洲供应2亿剂，向发展中国家供应超过10亿剂。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its&nbsp;market cap&nbsp;today.</p><p><blockquote>美国预付了13亿美元，以获得该公司的1亿剂实验性疫苗。这相当于每剂13美元。虽然各种购买协议的美元金额没有披露，但日本和欧洲可能会支付更高的美元金额，而发展中国家的协议将被打折。Novavax明年的收入完全有可能高于今天的市值。</blockquote></p><p> I'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.</p><p><blockquote>随着Novavax的疫苗在第四季度开始在全球获得授权，我预计Novavax的股价将飙升。Novavax的候选疫苗将作为加强注射和作为世界上大多数未接种疫苗的人的初始疫苗受到欢迎。Novavax在将COVID-19疫苗与流感疫苗结合的竞赛中处于领先地位。该公司刚刚在澳大利亚启动了一项联合试验，涉及640人，他们通过一次注射接种了这两种疾病的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Sorrento Therapeutics：别睡在这个名字上</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>George Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):</b>The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine candidates&nbsp;to market in the United States.</p><p><blockquote><b>George Budwell（Sorrento Therapeutics）：</b>由于其令人印象深刻的实验性COVID-19诊断和生物疗法阵容，临床阶段生物技术Sorrento Therapeutics去年声名鹊起。事实上，该生物技术公司的股票从2020年1月到2021年3月上涨了144%，主要是因为其广泛的COVID-19候选疫苗。然而，索伦托的股价在过去180天里已经下跌了近四分之一。鉴于该公司无法将其各种COVID-19候选疫苗中的一种推向美国市场，投资者显然已经转向了更好的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.</p><p><blockquote>核心问题是，过去几个月，多家生物制药公司在美国和欧盟等主要市场成功开发并随后营销了COVID-19疫苗、测试和治疗性抗体。与此同时，索伦托仍在寻求其首次重大监管胜利。然而，对于潜在投资者来说，重要的是要明白，疫情还远未结束。新冠肺炎极有可能演变成季节性呼吸道疾病。因此，投资者不一定应该注销索伦托等后来者。最终，该公司可以从COVID-19诊断和/或治疗中实现健康的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> It is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>Sorrento的COVID-19候选疫苗完全有可能在下一个日历年内在美国获得多项监管部门的批准，这对其股票来说将是一个重大利好。也就是说，在该公司在COVID-19领域获得美国食品和药物管理局的批准之前，这只中型生物技术股票肯定会保持波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.随着世界重新开放，InMode股票将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(InMode):</b>As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（在模式中）：</b>随着世界重新开放，人们聚在一起感觉更舒服，美学市场肯定会升温。这就是为什么我选择InMode作为COVID-19疫苗库存翻倍的公司，该公司自称是全球领先的创新、微创美容和健康解决方案提供商，具有很强的品牌认知度。</blockquote></p><p> Using a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.</p><p><blockquote>该公司采用剃须刀和刀片模式，销售医疗设备系统和相关消耗品，为身体塑形提供能源。InMode被多位医学专家使用，包括整形外科医生、皮肤科医生、妇科医生、耳鼻喉科医生和眼科医生，声称其程序比激光治疗更持久，比吸脂术等典型的塑身程序侵入性更小。</blockquote></p><p> And this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>这家价值52亿美元的美学公司正在全力以赴。在最近一个季度，InMode报告收入达到创纪录的8730万美元，与2020年第二季度相比增长了184%。第二季度美国以外的总销售额为3090万美元，是去年同期的三倍多。这种快速的国际增长占其总收入的35%，而2020年第二季度这一比例为22%。该公司目前在68个国家开展业务，拥有持续增长的巨大空间。</blockquote></p><p> As the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"</p><p><blockquote>随着世界慢慢恢复正常，消费者正在寻求因COVID-19而推迟的治疗方法。“我们的需求很强劲，”首席医疗官Spero Theodorou在上次电话会议上指出。“整个九月都很稳定。等待名单……大约还有一个月。”</blockquote></p><p> Theodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.</p><p><blockquote>Theodorou接着说，“超过三分之一的新患者以前从未做过（任何美容手术）。”这表明InMode已经扩大了塑身市场，尽管有新冠肺炎疫情，该市场在2020年全球已达到62亿美元。预计到2026年，该市场将以7.2%的复合年增长率增长，因此InMode有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> With many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月以来，我们中的许多人要么呆在家里，要么戴着面具，我预计随着新冠肺炎的衰落，这家美容设备制造商将继续增长。尽管InMode自2021年初以来已上涨超过180%，但该公司拥有巨大的跑道，其剃须刀和刀片业务模式仍然是有效的定位策略。InMode已经实现盈利，第二季度调整后稀释每股收益为1.02美元，而2020年同季度稀释后每股收益为0.24美元。InMode的股价似乎将再次翻倍。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.</p><p><blockquote>短期内任何事情都可能发生，所以说一只股票肯定会快速翻倍是愚蠢的。尽管如此，这些Fool.com撰稿人还是看好这三只医疗保健股，并且有理由保持短期乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Read more to find out why we think&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX),&nbsp;<b>Sorrento Therapeutics</b>(NASDAQ:SRNE), and&nbsp;<b>InMode</b>(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.</p><p><blockquote>阅读更多内容，了解我们为什么认为<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX），<b>索伦托治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：SRNE），以及<b>InMode</b>（纳斯达克：INMD）将轰轰烈烈地结束2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7858be2535b72fb5033e8b4d227614\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一、多重催化剂让诺瓦瓦克斯股价在2021年大涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Taylor Carmichael(Novavax):</b>Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔（Novavax）：</b>Novavax股价今年已经翻了一番，从1月份的112美元上涨至本周的233美元。但是油箱里还有很多油，我预计到今年年底还会增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Right now,<b>Moderna</b>&nbsp;enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.</p><p><blockquote>现在，<b>现代</b>市值为1690亿美元，<b>BioNTech</b>估值为790亿美元。与此同时，Novavax的市值为170亿美元，非常便宜。当然，不同之处在于，mRNA生物技术公司的两种COVID-19疫苗现在都已上市，而Novavax仍在等待其首次紧急使用授权。但当政府机构开始允许Novavax分发其COVID-19疫苗时，该股将真正开始飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.</p><p><blockquote>世界上大多数人口仍然没有接种疫苗。Novavax将在2022年准备分发20亿剂疫苗。该生物技术公司在世界各地签订了多项供应协议：向美国供应1亿剂，向日本供应1.5亿剂，向欧洲供应2亿剂，向发展中国家供应超过10亿剂。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its&nbsp;market cap&nbsp;today.</p><p><blockquote>美国预付了13亿美元，以获得该公司的1亿剂实验性疫苗。这相当于每剂13美元。虽然各种购买协议的美元金额没有披露，但日本和欧洲可能会支付更高的美元金额，而发展中国家的协议将被打折。Novavax明年的收入完全有可能高于今天的市值。</blockquote></p><p> I'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.</p><p><blockquote>随着Novavax的疫苗在第四季度开始在全球获得授权，我预计Novavax的股价将飙升。Novavax的候选疫苗将作为加强注射和作为世界上大多数未接种疫苗的人的初始疫苗受到欢迎。Novavax在将COVID-19疫苗与流感疫苗结合的竞赛中处于领先地位。该公司刚刚在澳大利亚启动了一项联合试验，涉及640人，他们通过一次注射接种了这两种疾病的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Sorrento Therapeutics：别睡在这个名字上</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>George Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):</b>The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine candidates&nbsp;to market in the United States.</p><p><blockquote><b>George Budwell（Sorrento Therapeutics）：</b>由于其令人印象深刻的实验性COVID-19诊断和生物疗法阵容，临床阶段生物技术Sorrento Therapeutics去年声名鹊起。事实上，该生物技术公司的股票从2020年1月到2021年3月上涨了144%，主要是因为其广泛的COVID-19候选疫苗。然而，索伦托的股价在过去180天里已经下跌了近四分之一。鉴于该公司无法将其各种COVID-19候选疫苗中的一种推向美国市场，投资者显然已经转向了更好的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.</p><p><blockquote>核心问题是，过去几个月，多家生物制药公司在美国和欧盟等主要市场成功开发并随后营销了COVID-19疫苗、测试和治疗性抗体。与此同时，索伦托仍在寻求其首次重大监管胜利。然而，对于潜在投资者来说，重要的是要明白，疫情还远未结束。新冠肺炎极有可能演变成季节性呼吸道疾病。因此，投资者不一定应该注销索伦托等后来者。最终，该公司可以从COVID-19诊断和/或治疗中实现健康的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> It is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>Sorrento的COVID-19候选疫苗完全有可能在下一个日历年内在美国获得多项监管部门的批准，这对其股票来说将是一个重大利好。也就是说，在该公司在COVID-19领域获得美国食品和药物管理局的批准之前，这只中型生物技术股票肯定会保持波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.随着世界重新开放，InMode股票将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(InMode):</b>As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（在模式中）：</b>随着世界重新开放，人们聚在一起感觉更舒服，美学市场肯定会升温。这就是为什么我选择InMode作为COVID-19疫苗库存翻倍的公司，该公司自称是全球领先的创新、微创美容和健康解决方案提供商，具有很强的品牌认知度。</blockquote></p><p> Using a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.</p><p><blockquote>该公司采用剃须刀和刀片模式，销售医疗设备系统和相关消耗品，为身体塑形提供能源。InMode被多位医学专家使用，包括整形外科医生、皮肤科医生、妇科医生、耳鼻喉科医生和眼科医生，声称其程序比激光治疗更持久，比吸脂术等典型的塑身程序侵入性更小。</blockquote></p><p> And this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>这家价值52亿美元的美学公司正在全力以赴。在最近一个季度，InMode报告收入达到创纪录的8730万美元，与2020年第二季度相比增长了184%。第二季度美国以外的总销售额为3090万美元，是去年同期的三倍多。这种快速的国际增长占其总收入的35%，而2020年第二季度这一比例为22%。该公司目前在68个国家开展业务，拥有持续增长的巨大空间。</blockquote></p><p> As the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"</p><p><blockquote>随着世界慢慢恢复正常，消费者正在寻求因COVID-19而推迟的治疗方法。“我们的需求很强劲，”首席医疗官Spero Theodorou在上次电话会议上指出。“整个九月都很稳定。等待名单……大约还有一个月。”</blockquote></p><p> Theodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.</p><p><blockquote>Theodorou接着说，“超过三分之一的新患者以前从未做过（任何美容手术）。”这表明InMode已经扩大了塑身市场，尽管有新冠肺炎疫情，该市场在2020年全球已达到62亿美元。预计到2026年，该市场将以7.2%的复合年增长率增长，因此InMode有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> With many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月以来，我们中的许多人要么呆在家里，要么戴着面具，我预计随着新冠肺炎的衰落，这家美容设备制造商将继续增长。尽管InMode自2021年初以来已上涨超过180%，但该公司拥有巨大的跑道，其剃须刀和刀片业务模式仍然是有效的定位策略。InMode已经实现盈利，第二季度调整后稀释每股收益为1.02美元，而2020年同季度稀释后每股收益为0.24美元。InMode的股价似乎将再次翻倍。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/3-covid-stocks-that-might-double-soon/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","SRNE":"索伦托医疗","INMD":"InMode Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/3-covid-stocks-that-might-double-soon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195990706","content_text":"Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.\nRead more to find out why we think Novavax(NASDAQ:NVAX), Sorrento Therapeutics(NASDAQ:SRNE), and InMode(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021\nTaylor Carmichael(Novavax):Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.\nRight now,Moderna enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and BioNTech sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.\nThe majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.\nThe U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its market cap today.\nI'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.\n2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name\nGeorge Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various COVID-19 vaccine candidates to market in the United States.\nThe core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.\nIt is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.\n3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens\nPatrick Bafuma (InMode):As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.\nUsing a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.\nAnd this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.\nAs the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"\nTheodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.\nWith many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"INMD":0.9,"SRNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882716478,"gmtCreate":1631720357794,"gmtModify":1631883968977,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882716478","repostId":"1125984951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886594029,"gmtCreate":1631603056261,"gmtModify":1631883968990,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886594029","repostId":"2167433580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167433580","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631602991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2167433580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167433580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder\nIs the U.S. stock mark","content":"<p>'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人表示，减少股票敞口是个好主意</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117649c67a585b760bd34e6cfde46ef3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Is the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美股走向回调？</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市可能正在出现另一条裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)周一在一份报告中写道：“我们（还）不想对此做太多，但华尔街分析师上周实际上下调了对这家标普500 2021年第三季度的盈利预期。”“这加上经济增长放缓，将导致进一步的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Last week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&amp;P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，上周对第三季度盈利预期的小幅修正是由于工业和材料行业分析师的调整。DataTrek表示，考虑到标普500目前的估值，美股需要“盈利预期上升的推动力”以及超出预期的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯在报告中表示：“减少股票敞口是个好主意。”“短期内将会出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 rose about 0.2% on&nbsp;Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心冠状病毒的delta变种可能会减缓经济复苏，标普500周一上涨约0.2%，接近9月2日的历史峰值4536.95点，上周下跌1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The materials sector of the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet最新数据，周一下午交易中，标普500材料板块下跌0.1%，而工业板块上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.</p><p><blockquote>根据DataTrek的报告，该标普500的估值是2022年盈利预期的20.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colas援引FactSet数据写道，上周末，华尔街分析师总体预计标普500第三季度每股收益为49.23美元，比前一周的预期低0.07美元。“尽管自2020年第二季度以来分析师的预测一直过于保守，但看到他们削减数字（无论多么轻微）仍然令人担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&amp;P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)已将标普500今年的目标股价从4,325点上调至4,500点，并在周一的一份报告中表示，其对该指数的每股收益预期已上调至200美元。该行还将2022年每股收益预期上调至222美元，同时将明年的目标价定为4,900美元。</blockquote></p><p> But \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&amp;P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&amp;P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>但是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>以美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina为首的加拿大皇家银行分析师在报告中表示：“我们正在监控股市以及我们的看涨期权的关键风险是标普500每股收益增长可能在2022年初转为负值。”虽然我们并不担心经济衰退，但策略师们表示，他们正在关注“标普500每股收益增长可能弱于2022年初股市所能承受的可能性”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.</p><p><blockquote>由于对估值过高的担忧，华尔街银行最近发出警告，称美国股市即将出现调整。加拿大皇家银行也认为年底前存在回调的风险，但根据其报告，将其视为“买入机会”。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&amp;P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek表示“有信心”标普500今年可能会突破近期的历史高点，尽管预计会出现波动。该公司的报告称，尽管第三季度盈利预期“停滞不前”，但美国大盘股仍应拥有足够的“盈利能力”来超出市场普遍预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这不一定有助于当前的市场情绪，”科拉斯说。“我们预计9月份将出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人表示，减少股票敞口是个好主意</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117649c67a585b760bd34e6cfde46ef3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Is the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美股走向回调？</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市可能正在出现另一条裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)周一在一份报告中写道：“我们（还）不想对此做太多，但华尔街分析师上周实际上下调了对这家标普500 2021年第三季度的盈利预期。”“这加上经济增长放缓，将导致进一步的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Last week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&amp;P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，上周对第三季度盈利预期的小幅修正是由于工业和材料行业分析师的调整。DataTrek表示，考虑到标普500目前的估值，美股需要“盈利预期上升的推动力”以及超出预期的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯在报告中表示：“减少股票敞口是个好主意。”“短期内将会出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 rose about 0.2% on&nbsp;Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心冠状病毒的delta变种可能会减缓经济复苏，标普500周一上涨约0.2%，接近9月2日的历史峰值4536.95点，上周下跌1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The materials sector of the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet最新数据，周一下午交易中，标普500材料板块下跌0.1%，而工业板块上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.</p><p><blockquote>根据DataTrek的报告，该标普500的估值是2022年盈利预期的20.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colas援引FactSet数据写道，上周末，华尔街分析师总体预计标普500第三季度每股收益为49.23美元，比前一周的预期低0.07美元。“尽管自2020年第二季度以来分析师的预测一直过于保守，但看到他们削减数字（无论多么轻微）仍然令人担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&amp;P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)已将标普500今年的目标股价从4,325点上调至4,500点，并在周一的一份报告中表示，其对该指数的每股收益预期已上调至200美元。该行还将2022年每股收益预期上调至222美元，同时将明年的目标价定为4,900美元。</blockquote></p><p> But \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&amp;P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&amp;P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>但是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>以美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina为首的加拿大皇家银行分析师在报告中表示：“我们正在监控股市以及我们的看涨期权的关键风险是标普500每股收益增长可能在2022年初转为负值。”虽然我们并不担心经济衰退，但策略师们表示，他们正在关注“标普500每股收益增长可能弱于2022年初股市所能承受的可能性”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.</p><p><blockquote>由于对估值过高的担忧，华尔街银行最近发出警告，称美国股市即将出现调整。加拿大皇家银行也认为年底前存在回调的风险，但根据其报告，将其视为“买入机会”。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&amp;P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek表示“有信心”标普500今年可能会突破近期的历史高点，尽管预计会出现波动。该公司的报告称，尽管第三季度盈利预期“停滞不前”，但美国大盘股仍应拥有足够的“盈利能力”来超出市场普遍预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这不一定有助于当前的市场情绪，”科拉斯说。“我们预计9月份将出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-choppy-market-after-wall-street-analysts-trim-s-p-500-earnings-estimates-for-third-quarter-11631562992?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-choppy-market-after-wall-street-analysts-trim-s-p-500-earnings-estimates-for-third-quarter-11631562992?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167433580","content_text":"'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder\nIs the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?\nAnother crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.\n\"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"\nLast week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.\n\"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"\nThe S&P 500 rose about 0.2% on Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.\nThe materials sector of the S&P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.\nThe S&P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.\nAt the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"\nRBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.\nBut \"one key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"\nWall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.\nDataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.\n\"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888716930,"gmtCreate":1631528961920,"gmtModify":1631883969008,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888716930","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888038665,"gmtCreate":1631412353757,"gmtModify":1631883969016,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888038665","repostId":"2166377772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881255618,"gmtCreate":1631349673434,"gmtModify":1631883969027,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881255618","repostId":"2166375184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883452511,"gmtCreate":1631266223633,"gmtModify":1631883969040,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883452511","repostId":"1148605188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01611":"新火科技控股","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","01499":"欧科云链"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01499":0.9,"01611":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889527168,"gmtCreate":1631160845654,"gmtModify":1631883969054,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comnent","listText":"Like my comnent","text":"Like my comnent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889527168","repostId":"1158905975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905975","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631160341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158905975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905975","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li>  <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li>  <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li>  <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li>  <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales Boost by Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新推动销售</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.</p><p><blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.</p><p><blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Global Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增加全球市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.</p><p><blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.</p><p><blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing via Horizontal Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过横向扩张实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</b></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pre-Launch Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发射前的势头</b></blockquote></p><p> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Asset Lite Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>轻资产商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote></p><p> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.</p><p><blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial ProspectsNIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务前景蔚来汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克</b></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote></p><p> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.</p><p><blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 12:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li>  <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li>  <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li>  <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li>  <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales Boost by Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新推动销售</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.</p><p><blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.</p><p><blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Global Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增加全球市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.</p><p><blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.</p><p><blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing via Horizontal Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过横向扩张实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</b></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pre-Launch Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发射前的势头</b></blockquote></p><p> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Asset Lite Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>轻资产商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote></p><p> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.</p><p><blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial ProspectsNIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务前景蔚来汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克</b></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote></p><p> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.</p><p><blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905975","content_text":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.\nGlobal EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.\nBut the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.\nA similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.\nWhile our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40% from 2019. And EV sales are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.\nBut the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of NIO and Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.\nNIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model\nIn the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.\nSales Boost by Innovation\nIn addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.\nMost recently, NIO announced the addition of a 150 kWh solid-state battery pack to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.\nAlthough the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a preference for EVs with higher range capability to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging Power Charger stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build 4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.\nIncreasing Global Market Share\nThe Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.\nNIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.\nFollowing its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.\nGrowing via Horizontal Expansion\nThe coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.\nNIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.\nFisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model\nIn contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.\nPre-Launch Momentum\nTo date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.\nLike NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.\nAsset Lite Business Model\nSimilar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.\nThe Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.\nIn addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.\nAside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.\nFinancial ProspectsNIO\nDespite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.\nNIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nNIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nFisker\nOn the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.\nThe PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.\nFisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nWith Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with our recent analyses performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.\nWe have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.\nFor NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.\ni. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOn the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.\nii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOver the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.\nConclusion\nWhile accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889527983,"gmtCreate":1631160832242,"gmtModify":1631883969068,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thsnks","listText":"Like my comments thsnks","text":"Like my comments thsnks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889527983","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880845008,"gmtCreate":1631044903104,"gmtModify":1631883969077,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment thanks","listText":"Like my comment thanks","text":"Like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880845008","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880337064,"gmtCreate":1631018768258,"gmtModify":1631888952969,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880337064","repostId":"1107454044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107454044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631017916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107454044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Melt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107454044","media":"zerohedge","summary":"What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?\nCurrently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-","content":"<p><u><b>What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>融化是什么样子的？</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a&nbsp;<i>“melt-up.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，股债比高于3年移动平均线3个标准差。上升的角度和持续时间具有a的所有特征<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>Melt-ups often precede meltdowns.</b></i>  <i>” – Investopedia</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fda8ce689ac1adbd7c8084614a4697\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是市场持续且往往出乎意料的改善，</i><i><b>部分原因是不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，而不是经济的根本改善。</b></i><i>熔化创造的收益被认为是市场最终走向的不可靠迹象。</i><i><b>熔化通常先于熔化。</b></i><i>”-投资百科</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Investors Really Are “All In”</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>投资者真的“全力以赴”</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<i>“melt-up,”</i>&nbsp;as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.</p><p><blockquote>The<i>“融化。”</i>如前所述，这是由投资者在认为自己错过了机会的情况下涌入股票所推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c88a43c47c5a4f3f78e18a1c24bd65\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Will the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>月中VIX模式会再次持续吗？</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.&nbsp; One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.</p><p><blockquote>下面的VIX（波动性）图表突出了去年月中出现的一种相当可靠的模式。如图所示，VIX往往会在大多数月份的中期下降，在几天内大幅反弹，然后再次走低。这种模式在过去三个月尤为明显。一个可能的原因是月中期权到期和低交易量的结合。此时，回补和展期期权合约所需的交易量可能足以推高波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed951e2517dd4bd29a1813dd037bbd35\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>September is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.</b>A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.</p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，9月份有望重复这种模式。</b>如果VIX下周晚些时候接近16.00-16.50区间，可能会再次出现不错的短期交易。16是最近的底部，因此如果您确实做多VIX并试图利用该模式，请将风险目标保持在16以下。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Deteriorating Optimism</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>乐观情绪恶化</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>花旗经济意外指数继续下降。任何低于零的读数都表明经济学家的预测过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172f447eb7dd88172fee22f8e5b466f3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>最近一系列疲软的经济数据让他们措手不及。尽管存在经济增长疲软的影响，但图表与股价之间的正相关性在过去一年中显着恶化。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Taxing Stock Buybacks</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>对股票回购征税</b></u></blockquote></p><p> An idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿民主党圈子里流传的一个想法是对股票回购征税或将其视为应税股息。有可能吗？考虑到美国企业界的大规模游说努力，可能不会。然而，如果他们能够通过此类立法，股价的关键驱动因素未来的影响可能有限。虽然我们认为通过的几率很低，但这值得密切关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Melt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMelt-Up Into Mid-Month VIX Reversal... Again?<blockquote>融化成月中VIX反转...再一次？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 20:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>融化是什么样子的？</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Currently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a&nbsp;<i>“melt-up.”</i></p><p><blockquote>目前，股债比高于3年移动平均线3个标准差。上升的角度和持续时间具有a的所有特征<i>“融化。”</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets,&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.</b></i>  <i>&nbsp;Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed.&nbsp;</i>  <i><b>Melt-ups often precede meltdowns.</b></i>  <i>” – Investopedia</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fda8ce689ac1adbd7c8084614a4697\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“融化是市场持续且往往出乎意料的改善，</i><i><b>部分原因是不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，而不是经济的根本改善。</b></i><i>熔化创造的收益被认为是市场最终走向的不可靠迹象。</i><i><b>熔化通常先于熔化。</b></i><i>”-投资百科</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Investors Really Are “All In”</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>投资者真的“全力以赴”</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<i>“melt-up,”</i>&nbsp;as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.</p><p><blockquote>The<i>“融化。”</i>如前所述，这是由投资者在认为自己错过了机会的情况下涌入股票所推动的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7c88a43c47c5a4f3f78e18a1c24bd65\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Will the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>月中VIX模式会再次持续吗？</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.&nbsp; One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.</p><p><blockquote>下面的VIX（波动性）图表突出了去年月中出现的一种相当可靠的模式。如图所示，VIX往往会在大多数月份的中期下降，在几天内大幅反弹，然后再次走低。这种模式在过去三个月尤为明显。一个可能的原因是月中期权到期和低交易量的结合。此时，回补和展期期权合约所需的交易量可能足以推高波动性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed951e2517dd4bd29a1813dd037bbd35\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"348\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>September is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.</b>A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.</p><p><blockquote><b>到目前为止，9月份有望重复这种模式。</b>如果VIX下周晚些时候接近16.00-16.50区间，可能会再次出现不错的短期交易。16是最近的底部，因此如果您确实做多VIX并试图利用该模式，请将风险目标保持在16以下。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Deteriorating Optimism</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>乐观情绪恶化</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.</p><p><blockquote>花旗经济意外指数继续下降。任何低于零的读数都表明经济学家的预测过于乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/172f447eb7dd88172fee22f8e5b466f3\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"531\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>最近一系列疲软的经济数据让他们措手不及。尽管存在经济增长疲软的影响，但图表与股价之间的正相关性在过去一年中显着恶化。</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Taxing Stock Buybacks</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>对股票回购征税</b></u></blockquote></p><p> An idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿民主党圈子里流传的一个想法是对股票回购征税或将其视为应税股息。有可能吗？考虑到美国企业界的大规模游说努力，可能不会。然而，如果他们能够通过此类立法，股价的关键驱动因素未来的影响可能有限。虽然我们认为通过的几率很低，但这值得密切关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/melt-mid-month-vix-reversal-again?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/melt-mid-month-vix-reversal-again?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107454044","content_text":"What Does A Melt-Up Look Like?\nCurrently, the stock-bond ratio is 3-standard deviations above the 3-year moving average. The angle and duration of the ascent have all the earmarks of a “melt-up.”\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the markets, \ndriven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.\n Gains that a melt-up creates are considered to be unreliable indications of the direction the market is ultimately headed. \nMelt-ups often precede meltdowns.\n” – Investopedia\n\n\nInvestors Really Are “All In”\nThe “melt-up,” as noted, is driven by investors piling into equities under the assumption they are missing out.\n\nWill the mid-month VIX pattern hold yet again?\nThe graph of the VIX (volatility) below highlights a fairly reliable pattern that has been occurring mid-month for the last year. As shown, VIX tends to decline into the middle part of most months, rally sharply for a few days, and head lower again. The pattern has been especially pronounced the last three months.  One likely cause is the combination of mid-month options expiration and low volumes. The volume of trades needed to cover and roll options contracts may be enough to push volatility higher at these times.\nSeptember is thus far looking to repeat the pattern.A nice short-term trade may again occur if VIX approaches the 16.00-16.50 range later next week. 16 has been the recent floor so if you do get long the VIX and try to take advantage of the pattern, keep risk targets in place below 16.\nDeteriorating Optimism\nThe Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to decline. Any reading below zero denotes economists’ forecasts are too optimistic.\nThe recent string of weaker economic data has caught them off guard. Despite the implications of weakening economic growth, the positive correlation between the graph and stock prices has significantly deteriorated over the last year.\nTaxing Stock Buybacks\nAn idea floating around Democrat circles in Washington is taxing stock buybacks or treating them as taxable dividends. Is it likely? Probably not, given the massive lobbying efforts of corporate America. However, if they are able to pass such legislation, a key driver of stock prices may have a limited effect going forward. While we think the odds of passage are low, this bears watching closely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814004306,"gmtCreate":1630724419705,"gmtModify":1631888952975,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814004306","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815144395,"gmtCreate":1630660565717,"gmtModify":1631888952976,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815144395","repostId":"1173550589","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173550589","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630660067,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173550589?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 17:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading<blockquote>FuboTV股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173550589","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"FuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading.\nFuboTV Inc. announced that it has been granted a Mana","content":"<p>FuboTV&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;4.34%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>富波电视股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d59f0c7fa4f62c7bce3c7eec2e1b52\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FuboTV Inc.&nbsp;announced that it has been granted a Management Services Provider Certification from the Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG), which subject to certain additional regulatory approvals, will allow Fubo Gaming to offer mobile event wagering within the state of Arizona through a market access agreement with the Ak-Chin Indian Community.</p><p><blockquote>富波电视公司宣布，它已获得亚利桑那州博彩部（ADG）的管理服务提供商认证，该认证将允许富波博彩通过与Ak-Chin印第安社区的市场准入协议在亚利桑那州提供移动赛事博彩。</blockquote></p><p> This marks the company’s second state license, following recent approval in Iowa, and represents another milestone in moving toward the launch of its mobile sportsbook, Fubo Sportsbook, which remains on track to go live in the fourth quarter 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这标志着该公司继最近在爱荷华州获得批准后获得的第二个州许可证，也是其移动体育博彩Fubo Sportsbook推出的又一个里程碑，该博彩仍有望于2021年第四季度上线。</blockquote></p><p> Once launched, sports bettors in the Grand Canyon state will enjoy a new, innovative mobile sportsbook that will enhance their wagering experience through&nbsp;the “Watching Now” feature, an industry-first integration of sports wagering and live streaming with fuboTV.</p><p><blockquote>一旦推出，大峡谷州的体育博彩者将享受一种新的、创新的移动体育博彩，该博彩将通过“立即观看”功能增强他们的博彩体验，这是体育博彩和富波电视直播的行业首次集成。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading<blockquote>FuboTV股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading<blockquote>FuboTV股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-03 17:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>FuboTV&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;4.34%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>富波电视股价在盘前交易中上涨4.34%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d59f0c7fa4f62c7bce3c7eec2e1b52\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">FuboTV Inc.&nbsp;announced that it has been granted a Management Services Provider Certification from the Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG), which subject to certain additional regulatory approvals, will allow Fubo Gaming to offer mobile event wagering within the state of Arizona through a market access agreement with the Ak-Chin Indian Community.</p><p><blockquote>富波电视公司宣布，它已获得亚利桑那州博彩部（ADG）的管理服务提供商认证，该认证将允许富波博彩通过与Ak-Chin印第安社区的市场准入协议在亚利桑那州提供移动赛事博彩。</blockquote></p><p> This marks the company’s second state license, following recent approval in Iowa, and represents another milestone in moving toward the launch of its mobile sportsbook, Fubo Sportsbook, which remains on track to go live in the fourth quarter 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这标志着该公司继最近在爱荷华州获得批准后获得的第二个州许可证，也是其移动体育博彩Fubo Sportsbook推出的又一个里程碑，该博彩仍有望于2021年第四季度上线。</blockquote></p><p> Once launched, sports bettors in the Grand Canyon state will enjoy a new, innovative mobile sportsbook that will enhance their wagering experience through&nbsp;the “Watching Now” feature, an industry-first integration of sports wagering and live streaming with fuboTV.</p><p><blockquote>一旦推出，大峡谷州的体育博彩者将享受一种新的、创新的移动体育博彩，该博彩将通过“立即观看”功能增强他们的博彩体验，这是体育博彩和富波电视直播的行业首次集成。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FUBO":"fuboTV Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173550589","content_text":"FuboTV shares rose 4.34% in premarket trading.\nFuboTV Inc. announced that it has been granted a Management Services Provider Certification from the Arizona Department of Gaming (ADG), which subject to certain additional regulatory approvals, will allow Fubo Gaming to offer mobile event wagering within the state of Arizona through a market access agreement with the Ak-Chin Indian Community.\nThis marks the company’s second state license, following recent approval in Iowa, and represents another milestone in moving toward the launch of its mobile sportsbook, Fubo Sportsbook, which remains on track to go live in the fourth quarter 2021.\nOnce launched, sports bettors in the Grand Canyon state will enjoy a new, innovative mobile sportsbook that will enhance their wagering experience through the “Watching Now” feature, an industry-first integration of sports wagering and live streaming with fuboTV.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FUBO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812180701,"gmtCreate":1630563371903,"gmtModify":1631888952981,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thnaks","listText":"Like my comments thnaks","text":"Like my comments thnaks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812180701","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816395800,"gmtCreate":1630465216100,"gmtModify":1631888952984,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816395800","repostId":"2164869989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818137655,"gmtCreate":1630382827077,"gmtModify":1704959473001,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818137655","repostId":"2163833181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811607666,"gmtCreate":1630314287955,"gmtModify":1704958270015,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811607666","repostId":"2163776380","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813187626,"gmtCreate":1630152442965,"gmtModify":1704956577159,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813187626","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819119903,"gmtCreate":1630042893702,"gmtModify":1704955076648,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581658741892979","authorIdStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like my comment thanks","listText":"Pls like my comment thanks","text":"Pls like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819119903","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":884683622,"gmtCreate":1631887000466,"gmtModify":1632805569760,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thsnks","listText":"Like my comments thsnks","text":"Like my comments thsnks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":93,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884683622","repostId":"2168783315","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891553525,"gmtCreate":1628402667867,"gmtModify":1631891905261,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments","listText":"Like my comments","text":"Like my comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891553525","repostId":"1180529438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180529438","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628386129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180529438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-08 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180529438","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission  sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance  protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.What Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purported","content":"<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEC Moves First DeFi Unregistered Securities Lawsuit<blockquote>SEC提起首起DeFi未注册证券诉讼</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-08 09:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国证券交易委员会（SEC）就该项目涉及的活动起诉了负责开发分散金融（DeFi）协议的组织...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/08/22378359/sec-moves-first-defi-unregistered-securities-lawsuit","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180529438","content_text":"The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued the organization responsible for the development of a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol over activities involved with the project for the first time.\nWhat Happened: According to a Friday SEC announcement, the agency has sued Cayman Islands-based Blockchain Credit Partners and two of its top executives over allegedly selling unregistered securities through its DeFi Money Market platform from February 2020 to February 2021. The firm purportedly sold over $30 million worth of two types of tokens that the SEC deemed to be securities that should have been registered as such.\nThe SEC notes that Blockchain Credit Partners founders Gregory Keough and Derek Acree will have to pay fines of $125,000 while the company itself also agreed to pay $12.8 million in disgorgement. The settlement does not indicate an admition or denial the accusations.\nNew Game, Old Rules?\nSEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal explained that \"full and honest disclosure remains the cornerstone of our securities laws — no matter what technologies are used to offer and sell those securities.\" This comment makes it very clear that slapping the DeFi label on a project and hoping to avoid regulation this way works no better than calling it a \"utility token\" prevented falling under the SEC's scrutiny during 2017's initial coin offering craze.\nThe SEC is trying to send the clear rule that the new kind of financial organizations that operate on blockchains have to still play by the old rules that govern traditional finance. At the same time, market onlookers are not sure if the regulator is actually right.\nIn a way, it is a tour de force where the regulator wins every time it has a way to take enforcement action, but these new organizations potentially have a very real way to make enforcement impossible — or at the very least impractical. The only protection against enforcement by the SEC and other regulators is decentralization and the only reason why the SEC was able to act in this case is that a centralized organization such as Blockchain Credit Partners exists.\nWhat's Next:If no company exists and all that there is to a DeFi protocol is a set of smart contracts deployed on a blockchain by a group of anonymous developers scattered around the world there is very little that the SEC can do short of attacking the blockchain itself. This is where the decentralization of the underlying blockchain comes into play: will the regulators for instance be able to force Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) core development team to write an update stopping such a project?\nIf the regulators would actually be able to force the blockchain's developers to write such an update, would node operators and miners or stakers adopt this software or would they refuse to? Such situations will be the real test of the decentralization and reliability of any blockchain that many are waiting to happen. Regulators are seeing power slipping away between their fingers like sand, and they are going to try to grab it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818137655,"gmtCreate":1630382827077,"gmtModify":1704959473001,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818137655","repostId":"2163833181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886594029,"gmtCreate":1631603056261,"gmtModify":1631883968990,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886594029","repostId":"2167433580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167433580","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631602991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2167433580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-14 15:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Brace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167433580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder\nIs the U.S. stock mark","content":"<p>'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人表示，减少股票敞口是个好主意</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117649c67a585b760bd34e6cfde46ef3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Is the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美股走向回调？</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市可能正在出现另一条裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)周一在一份报告中写道：“我们（还）不想对此做太多，但华尔街分析师上周实际上下调了对这家标普500 2021年第三季度的盈利预期。”“这加上经济增长放缓，将导致进一步的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Last week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&amp;P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，上周对第三季度盈利预期的小幅修正是由于工业和材料行业分析师的调整。DataTrek表示，考虑到标普500目前的估值，美股需要“盈利预期上升的推动力”以及超出预期的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯在报告中表示：“减少股票敞口是个好主意。”“短期内将会出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 rose about 0.2% on&nbsp;Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心冠状病毒的delta变种可能会减缓经济复苏，标普500周一上涨约0.2%，接近9月2日的历史峰值4536.95点，上周下跌1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The materials sector of the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet最新数据，周一下午交易中，标普500材料板块下跌0.1%，而工业板块上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.</p><p><blockquote>根据DataTrek的报告，该标普500的估值是2022年盈利预期的20.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colas援引FactSet数据写道，上周末，华尔街分析师总体预计标普500第三季度每股收益为49.23美元，比前一周的预期低0.07美元。“尽管自2020年第二季度以来分析师的预测一直过于保守，但看到他们削减数字（无论多么轻微）仍然令人担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&amp;P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)已将标普500今年的目标股价从4,325点上调至4,500点，并在周一的一份报告中表示，其对该指数的每股收益预期已上调至200美元。该行还将2022年每股收益预期上调至222美元，同时将明年的目标价定为4,900美元。</blockquote></p><p> But \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&amp;P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&amp;P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>但是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>以美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina为首的加拿大皇家银行分析师在报告中表示：“我们正在监控股市以及我们的看涨期权的关键风险是标普500每股收益增长可能在2022年初转为负值。”虽然我们并不担心经济衰退，但策略师们表示，他们正在关注“标普500每股收益增长可能弱于2022年初股市所能承受的可能性”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.</p><p><blockquote>由于对估值过高的担忧，华尔街银行最近发出警告，称美国股市即将出现调整。加拿大皇家银行也认为年底前存在回调的风险，但根据其报告，将其视为“买入机会”。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&amp;P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek表示“有信心”标普500今年可能会突破近期的历史高点，尽管预计会出现波动。该公司的报告称，尽管第三季度盈利预期“停滞不前”，但美国大盘股仍应拥有足够的“盈利能力”来超出市场普遍预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这不一定有助于当前的市场情绪，”科拉斯说。“我们预计9月份将出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Brace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBrace for 'choppy' market after Wall Street analysts trim S&P 500 earnings estimates for third quarter<blockquote>华尔街分析师下调标普500第三季度盈利预期后，为“波动”市场做好准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-14 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人表示，减少股票敞口是个好主意</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117649c67a585b760bd34e6cfde46ef3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Is the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年美股走向回调？</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市可能正在出现另一条裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> \"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)周一在一份报告中写道：“我们（还）不想对此做太多，但华尔街分析师上周实际上下调了对这家标普500 2021年第三季度的盈利预期。”“这加上经济增长放缓，将导致进一步的波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Last week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&amp;P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，上周对第三季度盈利预期的小幅修正是由于工业和材料行业分析师的调整。DataTrek表示，考虑到标普500目前的估值，美股需要“盈利预期上升的推动力”以及超出预期的公司。</blockquote></p><p> \"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯在报告中表示：“减少股票敞口是个好主意。”“短期内将会出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 rose about 0.2% on&nbsp;Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心冠状病毒的delta变种可能会减缓经济复苏，标普500周一上涨约0.2%，接近9月2日的历史峰值4536.95点，上周下跌1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The materials sector of the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.</p><p><blockquote>根据FactSet最新数据，周一下午交易中，标普500材料板块下跌0.1%，而工业板块上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.</p><p><blockquote>根据DataTrek的报告，该标普500的估值是2022年盈利预期的20.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&amp;P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"</p><p><blockquote>Colas援引FactSet数据写道，上周末，华尔街分析师总体预计标普500第三季度每股收益为49.23美元，比前一周的预期低0.07美元。“尽管自2020年第二季度以来分析师的预测一直过于保守，但看到他们削减数字（无论多么轻微）仍然令人担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&amp;P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)已将标普500今年的目标股价从4,325点上调至4,500点，并在周一的一份报告中表示，其对该指数的每股收益预期已上调至200美元。该行还将2022年每股收益预期上调至222美元，同时将明年的目标价定为4,900美元。</blockquote></p><p> But \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&amp;P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&amp;P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>但是“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>以美国股票策略主管Lori Calvasina为首的加拿大皇家银行分析师在报告中表示：“我们正在监控股市以及我们的看涨期权的关键风险是标普500每股收益增长可能在2022年初转为负值。”虽然我们并不担心经济衰退，但策略师们表示，他们正在关注“标普500每股收益增长可能弱于2022年初股市所能承受的可能性”。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.</p><p><blockquote>由于对估值过高的担忧，华尔街银行最近发出警告，称美国股市即将出现调整。加拿大皇家银行也认为年底前存在回调的风险，但根据其报告，将其视为“买入机会”。</blockquote></p><p> DataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&amp;P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.</p><p><blockquote>DataTrek表示“有信心”标普500今年可能会突破近期的历史高点，尽管预计会出现波动。该公司的报告称，尽管第三季度盈利预期“停滞不前”，但美国大盘股仍应拥有足够的“盈利能力”来超出市场普遍预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"</p><p><blockquote>“这不一定有助于当前的市场情绪，”科拉斯说。“我们预计9月份将出现波动。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-choppy-market-after-wall-street-analysts-trim-s-p-500-earnings-estimates-for-third-quarter-11631562992?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-choppy-market-after-wall-street-analysts-trim-s-p-500-earnings-estimates-for-third-quarter-11631562992?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167433580","content_text":"'It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,' says DataTrek co-founder\nIs the U.S. stock market heading for a correction in 2021?\nAnother crack may be emerging in the U.S. stock market.\n\"We don't want to make too much of this (yet), but Wall Street analysts actually cut their Q3 2021 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 last week,\" DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Monday. \"This, along with slowing economic growth, will make for further volatility.\"\nLast week's slightly revised earnings expectations for the third quarter were due to adjustments made by analysts in the industrials and materials sectors, according to the note. Considering current valuations of the S&P 500, DataTrek said U.S. stocks need the \"tailwind of rising earnings expectations\" as well as companies beating estimates.\n\"It's a good idea to lighten up on equity exposure,\" Colas said in the note. \"The near term is shaping up to be choppy.\"\nThe S&P 500 rose about 0.2% on Monday, trading near its all-time peak of 4536.95 on Sep. 2, after sliding 1.7% last week amid concerns the delta variant of the coronavirus may be slowing the economic recovery.\nThe materials sector of the S&P 500 was down 0.1% in Monday afternoon trading, while the industrials sector was up 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check.\nThe S&P 500 is valued at 20.3x earnings estimates for 2022, according to the DataTrek note.\nAt the end of last week, Wall Street analysts estimated in aggregate that third-quarter earnings per share for the S&P 500 will be $49.23, or $0.07 per share lower than forecast the prior week, Colas wrote, citing FactSet data. \"As much as analysts have been persistently too conservative with their estimates since Q2 2020, seeing them cut numbers (however slightly) is still worrisome.\"\nRBC Capital Markets has lifted its S&P 500 price target this year to 4,500, from 4,325, saying in a report Monday that its earnings-per-share forecast for the index has been revised higher to $200. The bank also raised its 2022 EPS forecast to $222 while introducing a price target of 4,900 for next year.\nBut \"one key risk that we are monitoring for the stock market -- and our call -- is the possibility that S&P 500 EPS growth will turn negative in early 2022,\" RBC analysts led by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy, said in the report. \"While we are not worried about an economic recession,\" the strategists said they're watching for \"the possibility that EPS growth for the S&P 500 may be weaker than the stock market can tolerate in early 2022.\"\nWall Street banks have delivered recent warnings of a looming correction for the U.S. stock market amid concern over stretched valuations. RBC also sees risk of a pullback by year-end, but views it as \"a buying opportunity,\" according to its report.\nDataTrek expressed \"confidence\" that the S&P 500 could this year push above its recent record high, despite expected volatility. While third-quarter earnings expectations have \"stagnated,\" U.S. large-cap stocks should still have enough \"earnings power\" to beat consensus estimates, according to the firm's note.\n\"That won't necessarily help current market sentiment,\" Colas said. \"We expect September to be volatile.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883452511,"gmtCreate":1631266223633,"gmtModify":1631883969040,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883452511","repostId":"1148605188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li>  <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li>  <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li>  <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li>  <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li>  <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li>  <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li>  <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li>  <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li>  <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li>  <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li>  <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li>  <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li>  <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01611":"新火科技控股","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","01499":"欧科云链"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01499":0.9,"01611":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880845008,"gmtCreate":1631044903104,"gmtModify":1631883969077,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment thanks","listText":"Like my comment thanks","text":"Like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880845008","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816395800,"gmtCreate":1630465216100,"gmtModify":1631888952984,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816395800","repostId":"2164869989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885606416,"gmtCreate":1631781443235,"gmtModify":1631883968966,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment thanks","listText":"Like my comment thanks","text":"Like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885606416","repostId":"1195990706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195990706","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631781148,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195990706?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 16:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195990706","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here are three healthcare stocks as nominees for a quick double in 2021.","content":"<p>Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.</p><p><blockquote>短期内任何事情都可能发生，所以说一只股票肯定会快速翻倍是愚蠢的。尽管如此，这些Fool.com撰稿人还是看好这三只医疗保健股，并且有理由保持短期乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Read more to find out why we think&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX),&nbsp;<b>Sorrento Therapeutics</b>(NASDAQ:SRNE), and&nbsp;<b>InMode</b>(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.</p><p><blockquote>阅读更多内容，了解我们为什么认为<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX），<b>索伦托治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：SRNE），以及<b>InMode</b>（纳斯达克：INMD）将轰轰烈烈地结束2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7858be2535b72fb5033e8b4d227614\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一、多重催化剂让诺瓦瓦克斯股价在2021年大涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Taylor Carmichael(Novavax):</b>Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔（Novavax）：</b>Novavax股价今年已经翻了一番，从1月份的112美元上涨至本周的233美元。但是油箱里还有很多油，我预计到今年年底还会增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Right now,<b>Moderna</b>&nbsp;enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.</p><p><blockquote>现在，<b>现代</b>市值为1690亿美元，<b>BioNTech</b>估值为790亿美元。与此同时，Novavax的市值为170亿美元，非常便宜。当然，不同之处在于，mRNA生物技术公司的两种COVID-19疫苗现在都已上市，而Novavax仍在等待其首次紧急使用授权。但当政府机构开始允许Novavax分发其COVID-19疫苗时，该股将真正开始飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.</p><p><blockquote>世界上大多数人口仍然没有接种疫苗。Novavax将在2022年准备分发20亿剂疫苗。该生物技术公司在世界各地签订了多项供应协议：向美国供应1亿剂，向日本供应1.5亿剂，向欧洲供应2亿剂，向发展中国家供应超过10亿剂。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its&nbsp;market cap&nbsp;today.</p><p><blockquote>美国预付了13亿美元，以获得该公司的1亿剂实验性疫苗。这相当于每剂13美元。虽然各种购买协议的美元金额没有披露，但日本和欧洲可能会支付更高的美元金额，而发展中国家的协议将被打折。Novavax明年的收入完全有可能高于今天的市值。</blockquote></p><p> I'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.</p><p><blockquote>随着Novavax的疫苗在第四季度开始在全球获得授权，我预计Novavax的股价将飙升。Novavax的候选疫苗将作为加强注射和作为世界上大多数未接种疫苗的人的初始疫苗受到欢迎。Novavax在将COVID-19疫苗与流感疫苗结合的竞赛中处于领先地位。该公司刚刚在澳大利亚启动了一项联合试验，涉及640人，他们通过一次注射接种了这两种疾病的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Sorrento Therapeutics：别睡在这个名字上</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>George Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):</b>The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine candidates&nbsp;to market in the United States.</p><p><blockquote><b>George Budwell（Sorrento Therapeutics）：</b>由于其令人印象深刻的实验性COVID-19诊断和生物疗法阵容，临床阶段生物技术Sorrento Therapeutics去年声名鹊起。事实上，该生物技术公司的股票从2020年1月到2021年3月上涨了144%，主要是因为其广泛的COVID-19候选疫苗。然而，索伦托的股价在过去180天里已经下跌了近四分之一。鉴于该公司无法将其各种COVID-19候选疫苗中的一种推向美国市场，投资者显然已经转向了更好的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.</p><p><blockquote>核心问题是，过去几个月，多家生物制药公司在美国和欧盟等主要市场成功开发并随后营销了COVID-19疫苗、测试和治疗性抗体。与此同时，索伦托仍在寻求其首次重大监管胜利。然而，对于潜在投资者来说，重要的是要明白，疫情还远未结束。新冠肺炎极有可能演变成季节性呼吸道疾病。因此，投资者不一定应该注销索伦托等后来者。最终，该公司可以从COVID-19诊断和/或治疗中实现健康的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> It is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>Sorrento的COVID-19候选疫苗完全有可能在下一个日历年内在美国获得多项监管部门的批准，这对其股票来说将是一个重大利好。也就是说，在该公司在COVID-19领域获得美国食品和药物管理局的批准之前，这只中型生物技术股票肯定会保持波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.随着世界重新开放，InMode股票将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(InMode):</b>As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（在模式中）：</b>随着世界重新开放，人们聚在一起感觉更舒服，美学市场肯定会升温。这就是为什么我选择InMode作为COVID-19疫苗库存翻倍的公司，该公司自称是全球领先的创新、微创美容和健康解决方案提供商，具有很强的品牌认知度。</blockquote></p><p> Using a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.</p><p><blockquote>该公司采用剃须刀和刀片模式，销售医疗设备系统和相关消耗品，为身体塑形提供能源。InMode被多位医学专家使用，包括整形外科医生、皮肤科医生、妇科医生、耳鼻喉科医生和眼科医生，声称其程序比激光治疗更持久，比吸脂术等典型的塑身程序侵入性更小。</blockquote></p><p> And this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>这家价值52亿美元的美学公司正在全力以赴。在最近一个季度，InMode报告收入达到创纪录的8730万美元，与2020年第二季度相比增长了184%。第二季度美国以外的总销售额为3090万美元，是去年同期的三倍多。这种快速的国际增长占其总收入的35%，而2020年第二季度这一比例为22%。该公司目前在68个国家开展业务，拥有持续增长的巨大空间。</blockquote></p><p> As the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"</p><p><blockquote>随着世界慢慢恢复正常，消费者正在寻求因COVID-19而推迟的治疗方法。“我们的需求很强劲，”首席医疗官Spero Theodorou在上次电话会议上指出。“整个九月都很稳定。等待名单……大约还有一个月。”</blockquote></p><p> Theodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.</p><p><blockquote>Theodorou接着说，“超过三分之一的新患者以前从未做过（任何美容手术）。”这表明InMode已经扩大了塑身市场，尽管有新冠肺炎疫情，该市场在2020年全球已达到62亿美元。预计到2026年，该市场将以7.2%的复合年增长率增长，因此InMode有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> With many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月以来，我们中的许多人要么呆在家里，要么戴着面具，我预计随着新冠肺炎的衰落，这家美容设备制造商将继续增长。尽管InMode自2021年初以来已上涨超过180%，但该公司拥有巨大的跑道，其剃须刀和刀片业务模式仍然是有效的定位策略。InMode已经实现盈利，第二季度调整后稀释每股收益为1.02美元，而2020年同季度稀释后每股收益为0.24美元。InMode的股价似乎将再次翻倍。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 COVID Stocks That Might Double Soon<blockquote>3只可能很快翻倍的新冠股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.</p><p><blockquote>短期内任何事情都可能发生，所以说一只股票肯定会快速翻倍是愚蠢的。尽管如此，这些Fool.com撰稿人还是看好这三只医疗保健股，并且有理由保持短期乐观。</blockquote></p><p> Read more to find out why we think&nbsp;<b>Novavax</b>(NASDAQ:NVAX),&nbsp;<b>Sorrento Therapeutics</b>(NASDAQ:SRNE), and&nbsp;<b>InMode</b>(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.</p><p><blockquote>阅读更多内容，了解我们为什么认为<b>Novavax</b>（纳斯达克：NVAX），<b>索伦托治疗公司</b>（纳斯达克：SRNE），以及<b>InMode</b>（纳斯达克：INMD）将轰轰烈烈地结束2021年。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7858be2535b72fb5033e8b4d227614\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1125\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一、多重催化剂让诺瓦瓦克斯股价在2021年大涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Taylor Carmichael(Novavax):</b>Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔（Novavax）：</b>Novavax股价今年已经翻了一番，从1月份的112美元上涨至本周的233美元。但是油箱里还有很多油，我预计到今年年底还会增加一倍。</blockquote></p><p> Right now,<b>Moderna</b>&nbsp;enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b>&nbsp;sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.</p><p><blockquote>现在，<b>现代</b>市值为1690亿美元，<b>BioNTech</b>估值为790亿美元。与此同时，Novavax的市值为170亿美元，非常便宜。当然，不同之处在于，mRNA生物技术公司的两种COVID-19疫苗现在都已上市，而Novavax仍在等待其首次紧急使用授权。但当政府机构开始允许Novavax分发其COVID-19疫苗时，该股将真正开始飙升。</blockquote></p><p> The majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.</p><p><blockquote>世界上大多数人口仍然没有接种疫苗。Novavax将在2022年准备分发20亿剂疫苗。该生物技术公司在世界各地签订了多项供应协议：向美国供应1亿剂，向日本供应1.5亿剂，向欧洲供应2亿剂，向发展中国家供应超过10亿剂。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its&nbsp;market cap&nbsp;today.</p><p><blockquote>美国预付了13亿美元，以获得该公司的1亿剂实验性疫苗。这相当于每剂13美元。虽然各种购买协议的美元金额没有披露，但日本和欧洲可能会支付更高的美元金额，而发展中国家的协议将被打折。Novavax明年的收入完全有可能高于今天的市值。</blockquote></p><p> I'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.</p><p><blockquote>随着Novavax的疫苗在第四季度开始在全球获得授权，我预计Novavax的股价将飙升。Novavax的候选疫苗将作为加强注射和作为世界上大多数未接种疫苗的人的初始疫苗受到欢迎。Novavax在将COVID-19疫苗与流感疫苗结合的竞赛中处于领先地位。该公司刚刚在澳大利亚启动了一项联合试验，涉及640人，他们通过一次注射接种了这两种疾病的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Sorrento Therapeutics：别睡在这个名字上</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>George Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):</b>The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various&nbsp;COVID-19 vaccine candidates&nbsp;to market in the United States.</p><p><blockquote><b>George Budwell（Sorrento Therapeutics）：</b>由于其令人印象深刻的实验性COVID-19诊断和生物疗法阵容，临床阶段生物技术Sorrento Therapeutics去年声名鹊起。事实上，该生物技术公司的股票从2020年1月到2021年3月上涨了144%，主要是因为其广泛的COVID-19候选疫苗。然而，索伦托的股价在过去180天里已经下跌了近四分之一。鉴于该公司无法将其各种COVID-19候选疫苗中的一种推向美国市场，投资者显然已经转向了更好的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.</p><p><blockquote>核心问题是，过去几个月，多家生物制药公司在美国和欧盟等主要市场成功开发并随后营销了COVID-19疫苗、测试和治疗性抗体。与此同时，索伦托仍在寻求其首次重大监管胜利。然而，对于潜在投资者来说，重要的是要明白，疫情还远未结束。新冠肺炎极有可能演变成季节性呼吸道疾病。因此，投资者不一定应该注销索伦托等后来者。最终，该公司可以从COVID-19诊断和/或治疗中实现健康的收入流。</blockquote></p><p> It is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>Sorrento的COVID-19候选疫苗完全有可能在下一个日历年内在美国获得多项监管部门的批准，这对其股票来说将是一个重大利好。也就是说，在该公司在COVID-19领域获得美国食品和药物管理局的批准之前，这只中型生物技术股票肯定会保持波动。相应地投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.随着世界重新开放，InMode股票将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(InMode):</b>As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（在模式中）：</b>随着世界重新开放，人们聚在一起感觉更舒服，美学市场肯定会升温。这就是为什么我选择InMode作为COVID-19疫苗库存翻倍的公司，该公司自称是全球领先的创新、微创美容和健康解决方案提供商，具有很强的品牌认知度。</blockquote></p><p> Using a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.</p><p><blockquote>该公司采用剃须刀和刀片模式，销售医疗设备系统和相关消耗品，为身体塑形提供能源。InMode被多位医学专家使用，包括整形外科医生、皮肤科医生、妇科医生、耳鼻喉科医生和眼科医生，声称其程序比激光治疗更持久，比吸脂术等典型的塑身程序侵入性更小。</blockquote></p><p> And this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>这家价值52亿美元的美学公司正在全力以赴。在最近一个季度，InMode报告收入达到创纪录的8730万美元，与2020年第二季度相比增长了184%。第二季度美国以外的总销售额为3090万美元，是去年同期的三倍多。这种快速的国际增长占其总收入的35%，而2020年第二季度这一比例为22%。该公司目前在68个国家开展业务，拥有持续增长的巨大空间。</blockquote></p><p> As the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"</p><p><blockquote>随着世界慢慢恢复正常，消费者正在寻求因COVID-19而推迟的治疗方法。“我们的需求很强劲，”首席医疗官Spero Theodorou在上次电话会议上指出。“整个九月都很稳定。等待名单……大约还有一个月。”</blockquote></p><p> Theodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.</p><p><blockquote>Theodorou接着说，“超过三分之一的新患者以前从未做过（任何美容手术）。”这表明InMode已经扩大了塑身市场，尽管有新冠肺炎疫情，该市场在2020年全球已达到62亿美元。预计到2026年，该市场将以7.2%的复合年增长率增长，因此InMode有很大的发展空间。</blockquote></p><p> With many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月以来，我们中的许多人要么呆在家里，要么戴着面具，我预计随着新冠肺炎的衰落，这家美容设备制造商将继续增长。尽管InMode自2021年初以来已上涨超过180%，但该公司拥有巨大的跑道，其剃须刀和刀片业务模式仍然是有效的定位策略。InMode已经实现盈利，第二季度调整后稀释每股收益为1.02美元，而2020年同季度稀释后每股收益为0.24美元。InMode的股价似乎将再次翻倍。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/3-covid-stocks-that-might-double-soon/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","SRNE":"索伦托医疗","INMD":"InMode Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/3-covid-stocks-that-might-double-soon/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195990706","content_text":"Anything can happen in the short term, so it's folly to say that a stock is a sure thing for a quick double. Nonetheless, these Fool.com contributors are bullish on these three healthcare stocks, and there are reasons for short-term optimism.\nRead more to find out why we think Novavax(NASDAQ:NVAX), Sorrento Therapeutics(NASDAQ:SRNE), and InMode(NASDAQ:INMD)will close out 2021 with a bang.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Multiple catalysts will make Novavax shares jump in 2021\nTaylor Carmichael(Novavax):Novavax stock has already doubled this year, running from $112 back in January to $233 this week. But there's plenty of gas left in the tank, and I expect another double by the end of the year.\nRight now,Moderna enjoys a $169 billion market cap, and BioNTech sports a $79 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Novavax is positively cheap with its $17 billion market cap. The difference, of course, is that the mRNA biotechs have both of their COVID-19 vaccines on the market now, while Novavax is still waiting for its first Emergency Use Authorization. But when the government agencies start allowing Novavax to distribute its COVID-19 vaccine, the stock will really start to soar.\nThe majority of the world's population still has not been vaccinated. Novavax will have 2 billion doses of vaccine ready to distribute in 2022. And the biotech has multiple agreements for supplying locations around the world: 100 million doses for the U.S., 150 million doses for Japan, 200 million doses for Europe, and over 1 billion doses for the developing world.\nThe U.S. paid $1.3 billion in advance to secure its 100 million doses of the company's experimental vaccine. That works out to $13 a dose. While the dollar amounts of the various purchase agreements are undisclosed, Japan and Europe will likely pay a higher dollar amount, while the developing world agreements will be discounted. It's entirely possible that Novavax's revenue next year will be higher than its market cap today.\nI'm expecting Novavax shares to spike higher as its vaccine starts receiving authorization around the world in the fourth quarter. Novavax's vaccine candidate will be popular both as a booster shot and as an initial vaccine for the majority of the world who are unvaccinated. And Novavax is leading in the race to combine the COVID-19 vaccine with a flu vaccine. The company just kicked off a combo trial in Australia involving 640 people who have been vaccinated against both diseases with a single shot.\n2. Sorrento Therapeutics: Don't sleep on this name\nGeorge Budwell(Sorrento Therapeutics):The clinical-stage biotech Sorrento Therapeutics rose to prominence last year thanks to its impressive lineup of experimental COVID-19 diagnostics and biologic therapies. The biotech's stock, in fact, gained a whopping 144% from January 2020 to March 2021 mostly because of its broad spectrum of COVID-19 vaccine candidates. Sorrento's shares, however, have now lost almost a quarter of their value over the past 180 days. Investors have apparently moved on to greener pastures, given the company's inability to bring even one of its various COVID-19 vaccine candidates to market in the United States.\nThe core issue is that multiple biopharmas have been successful at developing and subsequently marketing COVID-19 vaccines, tests, and therapeutic antibodies in key markets like the U.S. and European Union over the last few months. Meanwhile, Sorrento is still on the hunt for its first major regulatory win. What's important for potential investors to understand, though, is that the pandemic is far from over. COVID-19 is highly likely to morph into a seasonal respiratory ailment. As such, investors shouldn't necessarily write off latecomers such as Sorrento. Eventually, the company could realize a healthy revenue stream from a COVID-19 diagnostic and/or therapeutic.\nIt is entirely possible that Sorrento could garner multiple regulatory approvals for its COVID-19 vaccine candidates in the U.S. within the next calendar year, which would be a major boon for its stock. That said, this mid-cap biotech stock will surely remain on the volatile side until the company lands a Food and Drug Administration approval within the COVID-19 space. Invest accordingly.\n3. InMode stock will spike as the world reopens\nPatrick Bafuma (InMode):As the world opens back up and people feel more comfortable gathering, the aesthetics market is sure to heat up. That's why my pick for a COVID-19 vaccine stock to double is InMode, the self-proclaimed leading global provider of innovative, minimally invasive aesthetic and wellness solutions, with strong brand recognition.\nUsing a razor-and-blades model, the company markets a medical device system and associated consumables that provide an energy source for body contouring. Utilized by multiple medical specialists, including plastic surgeons, dermatologists, gynecologists, ENTs, and ophthalmologists, InMode claims its procedures are longer lasting than laser treatment and less invasive than typical body sculpting procedures like liposuction.\nAnd this $5.2 billion aesthetics company is firing on all cylinders.In the most recent quarter, InMode reported record revenue of $87.3 million, representing an increase of 184% compared to the second quarter of 2020. Total second-quarter sales outside of the U.S. were $30.9 million, more than triple what it reported during the same period last year. This torrid international growth represented 35% of its total revenue compared to 22% of its total revenue in Q2 2020. Currently operating in 68 countries, the company enjoys a massive runway for continued growth.\nAs the world slowly returns to normal, consumers are seeking out treatments that they had delayed due to COVID-19. \"Our demand is strong,\" chief medical officer Spero Theodorou noted on the last conference call. \"It's solid all the way into September. Waiting lists ... (are) about a month out.\"\nTheodorou went on to say, \"Over one-third of the new patients coming in have never had (any aesthetics procedure) done before.\" This indicates that InMode has expanded the body contouring market, which had already reached $6.2 billion worldwide in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% into 2026, so there is plenty of room to run for InMode.\nWith many of us either in the house or masked up since March 2020, I expect continued growth for this aesthetics device maker as COVID-19 wanes. Despite InMode already being up over 180% since the start of 2021, the company has a huge runway, and its razor-and-blades business model continues to be an effective positioning strategy. InMode is already profitable with adjusted diluted earnings per share in Q2 coming in at $1.02 compared to $0.24 per diluted share for the same quarter of 2020. InMode looks like it's shaping up to double its share price again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"INMD":0.9,"SRNE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890543983,"gmtCreate":1628125623442,"gmtModify":1631893800049,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool. Like my comments","listText":"Cool. Like my comments","text":"Cool. Like my comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890543983","repostId":"2157483930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881255618,"gmtCreate":1631349673434,"gmtModify":1631883969027,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881255618","repostId":"2166375184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882716478,"gmtCreate":1631720357794,"gmtModify":1631883968977,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882716478","repostId":"1125984951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813187626,"gmtCreate":1630152442965,"gmtModify":1704956577159,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813187626","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837120026,"gmtCreate":1629865987665,"gmtModify":1631888953006,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837120026","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836669906,"gmtCreate":1629476662105,"gmtModify":1631891905233,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836669906","repostId":"1107004225","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107004225","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629473431,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107004225?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why This Virgin Galactic Analyst Just Cut Their Price Target By Nearly 40%<blockquote>为什么这位维珍银河分析师刚刚将目标价下调近40%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107004225","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc shares have come crashing back to Earth since the company successfully ","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> </b><b>Holdings</b><b> Inc</b>&nbsp;shares have come crashing back to Earth since the company successfully completed a Unity 22 space flight back in July, and one analyst said Friday&nbsp;the stock will likely continue to struggle in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a></b><b>控股</b><b>Inc</b>自该公司7月份成功完成Unity 22太空飞行以来，该公司股价暴跌，一位分析师周五表示，该股短期内可能会继续陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Virgin Galactic Analyst:</b>&nbsp;Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated an Underperform rating on&nbsp;Virgin Galactic and cut the&nbsp;price target from $41 to $25.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河分析师：</b>美国银行分析师Ronald Epstein重申了对维珍银河的跑输评级，并将目标价从41美元下调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Virgin Galactic Takeaways:</b>&nbsp;In his new note, Epstein said he was surprised and somewhat confused by Virgin’s recent announcement that it will begin planned maintenance plus enhancement for Mothership Eve in September after receiving a recommendation for the enhancements in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河外卖：</b>爱泼斯坦在他的新报告中表示，维珍航空最近宣布，在7月份收到增强建议后，将于9月份开始对母舰Eve进行计划维护和增强，这让他感到惊讶和有些困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The planned improvements, which Virgin did not detail, will bump back the timeline for the company’s first commercial passenger flight from early 2022 to late in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>维珍航空没有详细说明计划中的改进将把该公司首次商业客运航班的时间表从2022年初推迟到2022年第三季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Epstein said it was particularly surprising that Virgin didn’t provide any technical details about the planned improvements and said the enhancements are still in the design phase.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示，尤其令人惊讶的是，维珍没有提供有关计划改进的任何技术细节，并表示这些改进仍处于设计阶段。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Epstein said he expects Virgin to focus on sub-orbital travel, which will bump back orbital travel further into the future. Epstein has pushed back his target date for Virgin orbital travel from 2028 to 2035 and is removing his 2035 target for high speed point-to-point travel.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示，目前，他预计维珍航空将专注于亚轨道旅行，这将在未来进一步阻碍轨道旅行。爱泼斯坦已将维珍轨道旅行的目标日期从2028年推迟到2035年，并取消了2035年高速点对点旅行的目标。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of upcoming stock catalysts, Epstein said the October 2021 lock-up expirations could pressure Virgin’s stock.</p><p><blockquote>就即将到来的股票催化剂而言，爱泼斯坦表示，2021年10月的禁售期可能会给维珍的股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “We see short term downside pressure to the stock price as a) delayed commercialization results in lack of catalysts, b) the market stays attentive to the next equity raise, and c) the next lock-up period expires,” Epstein said.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示：“我们认为股价短期面临下行压力，因为a）商业化延迟导致缺乏催化剂，b）市场仍在关注下一次股权融资，以及c）下一次禁售期到期。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>&nbsp;With Virgin generating a $644-million net loss on less than $300,000 in revenue in 2020, any delays in the path to a commercial launch are understandably concerning for investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>由于维珍航空在2020年的收入不到30万美元，净亏损6.44亿美元，商业推出之路的任何延误都可以理解投资者的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> If Epstein’s new targets are correct, it also appears that at least the next 14 years will be all about sub-orbital travel for Virgin.</p><p><blockquote>如果爱泼斯坦的新目标是正确的，那么对于维珍来说，至少未来14年将是亚轨道旅行的全部。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Virgin Galactic Analyst Just Cut Their Price Target By Nearly 40%<blockquote>为什么这位维珍银河分析师刚刚将目标价下调近40%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Virgin Galactic Analyst Just Cut Their Price Target By Nearly 40%<blockquote>为什么这位维珍银河分析师刚刚将目标价下调近40%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-20 23:30</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> </b><b>Holdings</b><b> Inc</b>&nbsp;shares have come crashing back to Earth since the company successfully completed a Unity 22 space flight back in July, and one analyst said Friday&nbsp;the stock will likely continue to struggle in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a></b><b>控股</b><b>Inc</b>自该公司7月份成功完成Unity 22太空飞行以来，该公司股价暴跌，一位分析师周五表示，该股短期内可能会继续陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Virgin Galactic Analyst:</b>&nbsp;Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated an Underperform rating on&nbsp;Virgin Galactic and cut the&nbsp;price target from $41 to $25.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河分析师：</b>美国银行分析师Ronald Epstein重申了对维珍银河的跑输评级，并将目标价从41美元下调至25美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Virgin Galactic Takeaways:</b>&nbsp;In his new note, Epstein said he was surprised and somewhat confused by Virgin’s recent announcement that it will begin planned maintenance plus enhancement for Mothership Eve in September after receiving a recommendation for the enhancements in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河外卖：</b>爱泼斯坦在他的新报告中表示，维珍航空最近宣布，在7月份收到增强建议后，将于9月份开始对母舰Eve进行计划维护和增强，这让他感到惊讶和有些困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The planned improvements, which Virgin did not detail, will bump back the timeline for the company’s first commercial passenger flight from early 2022 to late in the third quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>维珍航空没有详细说明计划中的改进将把该公司首次商业客运航班的时间表从2022年初推迟到2022年第三季度末。</blockquote></p><p> Epstein said it was particularly surprising that Virgin didn’t provide any technical details about the planned improvements and said the enhancements are still in the design phase.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示，尤其令人惊讶的是，维珍没有提供有关计划改进的任何技术细节，并表示这些改进仍处于设计阶段。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Epstein said he expects Virgin to focus on sub-orbital travel, which will bump back orbital travel further into the future. Epstein has pushed back his target date for Virgin orbital travel from 2028 to 2035 and is removing his 2035 target for high speed point-to-point travel.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示，目前，他预计维珍航空将专注于亚轨道旅行，这将在未来进一步阻碍轨道旅行。爱泼斯坦已将维珍轨道旅行的目标日期从2028年推迟到2035年，并取消了2035年高速点对点旅行的目标。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of upcoming stock catalysts, Epstein said the October 2021 lock-up expirations could pressure Virgin’s stock.</p><p><blockquote>就即将到来的股票催化剂而言，爱泼斯坦表示，2021年10月的禁售期可能会给维珍的股票带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> “We see short term downside pressure to the stock price as a) delayed commercialization results in lack of catalysts, b) the market stays attentive to the next equity raise, and c) the next lock-up period expires,” Epstein said.</p><p><blockquote>爱泼斯坦表示：“我们认为股价短期面临下行压力，因为a）商业化延迟导致缺乏催化剂，b）市场仍在关注下一次股权融资，以及c）下一次禁售期到期。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>&nbsp;With Virgin generating a $644-million net loss on less than $300,000 in revenue in 2020, any delays in the path to a commercial launch are understandably concerning for investors.</p><p><blockquote><b>Benzinga的看法：</b>由于维珍航空在2020年的收入不到30万美元，净亏损6.44亿美元，商业推出之路的任何延误都可以理解投资者的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> If Epstein’s new targets are correct, it also appears that at least the next 14 years will be all about sub-orbital travel for Virgin.</p><p><blockquote>如果爱泼斯坦的新目标是正确的，那么对于维珍来说，至少未来14年将是亚轨道旅行的全部。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107004225","content_text":"Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc shares have come crashing back to Earth since the company successfully completed a Unity 22 space flight back in July, and one analyst said Friday the stock will likely continue to struggle in the near-term.\nThe Virgin Galactic Analyst: Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein reiterated an Underperform rating on Virgin Galactic and cut the price target from $41 to $25.\nThe Virgin Galactic Takeaways: In his new note, Epstein said he was surprised and somewhat confused by Virgin’s recent announcement that it will begin planned maintenance plus enhancement for Mothership Eve in September after receiving a recommendation for the enhancements in July.\nThe planned improvements, which Virgin did not detail, will bump back the timeline for the company’s first commercial passenger flight from early 2022 to late in the third quarter of 2022.\nEpstein said it was particularly surprising that Virgin didn’t provide any technical details about the planned improvements and said the enhancements are still in the design phase.\nFor now, Epstein said he expects Virgin to focus on sub-orbital travel, which will bump back orbital travel further into the future. Epstein has pushed back his target date for Virgin orbital travel from 2028 to 2035 and is removing his 2035 target for high speed point-to-point travel.\nIn terms of upcoming stock catalysts, Epstein said the October 2021 lock-up expirations could pressure Virgin’s stock.\n“We see short term downside pressure to the stock price as a) delayed commercialization results in lack of catalysts, b) the market stays attentive to the next equity raise, and c) the next lock-up period expires,” Epstein said.\nBenzinga’s Take: With Virgin generating a $644-million net loss on less than $300,000 in revenue in 2020, any delays in the path to a commercial launch are understandably concerning for investors.\nIf Epstein’s new targets are correct, it also appears that at least the next 14 years will be all about sub-orbital travel for Virgin.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898123478,"gmtCreate":1628479011694,"gmtModify":1631891905257,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments","listText":"Like my comments","text":"Like my comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898123478","repostId":"1136322726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807478337,"gmtCreate":1628053894629,"gmtModify":1631893800058,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment","listText":"Like my comment","text":"Like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807478337","repostId":"2156412186","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888716930,"gmtCreate":1631528961920,"gmtModify":1631883969008,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks","listText":"Like my comments thanks","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888716930","repostId":"2167630550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888038665,"gmtCreate":1631412353757,"gmtModify":1631883969016,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comments thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like my comments thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888038665","repostId":"2166377772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889527168,"gmtCreate":1631160845654,"gmtModify":1631883969054,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comnent","listText":"Like my comnent","text":"Like my comnent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889527168","repostId":"1158905975","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158905975","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631160341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158905975?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158905975","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li>  <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li>  <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li>  <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li>  <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales Boost by Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新推动销售</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.</p><p><blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.</p><p><blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Global Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增加全球市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.</p><p><blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.</p><p><blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing via Horizontal Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过横向扩张实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</b></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pre-Launch Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发射前的势头</b></blockquote></p><p> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Asset Lite Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>轻资产商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote></p><p> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.</p><p><blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial ProspectsNIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务前景蔚来汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克</b></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote></p><p> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.</p><p><blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker Vs NIO: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>菲斯克与蔚来：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 12:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.</li>  <li>Global EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.</li>  <li>But the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.</li>  <li>A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.</li>  <li>While our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9e6240d6fd9622f36cd021340e6c90\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。</li><li>2020年全球电动汽车销量飙升超过40%，今年有望达到新的高度，这使其成为一个令人兴奋的投资机会。</li><li>但越来越多的电动汽车股票，从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的初创企业，使得人们越来越难以确定哪一种是更好的投资。</li><li>类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来和菲斯克，一个是国内领先的电动汽车品牌，另一个仍处于预营收和预投产阶段。</li><li>虽然我们对这两只股票的前景仍然看好，但我们认为，由于其专有技术（包括电池更换和自动驾驶）的价值不断增加，蔚来正在进行更高增长的长期投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Improving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40%&nbsp;from 2019. And EV sales are poised to&nbsp;reach newer heights&nbsp;this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，电池技术的改进、充电基础设施的可用性以及与内燃机汽车价格平价的提高推动了电动汽车（“EV”）的采用。电动汽车行业已成为21世纪增长最快的细分市场之一——尽管由于与COVID相关的封锁和经济不确定性，全球汽车销量在2020年遭受了前所未有的下滑，但电动汽车销量比2019年飙升了40%以上。今年电动汽车销量有望达到新的高度，这使其成为许多人关注的令人兴奋的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> But the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;and&nbsp;Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.</p><p><blockquote>但从老牌电动汽车制造商到尚未盈利的早期电动汽车初创企业，越来越多的选择使得确定哪种投资增长更高变得越来越困难。类似的投资困境也适用于蔚来（蔚来）和菲斯克（FSR），前者已经成为国内领先的电动汽车品牌之一，并正在进行海外扩张计划，而后者仍处于首款电动汽车的测试阶段。车辆。在我们最近对蔚来和菲斯克的报道中，我们向这两家公司发出了买入信号。尽管我们为这两只股票设定的12个月价格目标表明菲斯克在短期内表现出类似的上涨潜力，但我们相信，由于其价值不断增加，从长远来看，蔚来将产生更好的风险回报权衡。其创新技术发展。考虑到其电动汽车和专有电池交换技术已经在中欧进行了尝试和测试，并得到了证实的需求，蔚来也进行了更安全的投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的优势在于创新、海外扩张和差异化的商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> In the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>在短短三年多的时间里，蔚来已发展成为国内最大的电动汽车品牌之一，迄今为止销量已超过13万辆。尽管由于全球芯片供应持续波动，近几个月来交付量有所放缓，但蔚来仍继续实现强劲的两位数同比销售增长。每月新订单也持续达到历史新高，随着需求继续快速增长，支撑了未来销售的显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sales Boost by Innovation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>创新推动销售</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.</p><p><blockquote>除了全电池电动汽车的多元化产品线外，蔚来还因其电池交换技术、车载人工智能和自动驾驶的开发而闻名。迄今为止，其取得的创新成就证明了其愿景不仅仅是制造电动汽车，而是一个由技术驱动的综合生态系统。</blockquote></p><p> Most recently, NIO announced the addition of a&nbsp;150 kWh solid-state battery pack&nbsp;to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder&nbsp;Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.</p><p><blockquote>最近，蔚来宣布在其当前的可更换电池系列中增加150 kWh固态电池组。蔚来目前提供可更换的70 kWh和100 kWh电池组，续航里程分别为300英里和435英里。最新的150 kWh固态电池组预计将于2022年第四季度投入商业使用，为第一代ES8 SUV提供超过450英里的续航能力，为更新、更高效的车型提供高达620英里的续航能力。这将超过目前纪录保持者Lucid Motors(LCID)单次充电517英里的续航里程。再加上其专有的电池更换技术，可以在三分钟内将没电的电池更换为充满电的电池，蔚来解决了全球电动汽车采用的两个最大障碍——里程焦虑和充电时间长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a&nbsp;preference for EVs with higher range capability&nbsp;to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning&nbsp;Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging&nbsp;Power Charger&nbsp;stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build&nbsp;4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.</p><p><blockquote>尽管平均通勤里程通常低于每天40英里，但大多数驾驶员表示更喜欢续航里程更高的电动汽车，以保持他们习惯使用内燃机汽车的“安心”。充电时间和充电基础设施的可用性也被证明是电动汽车购买决策中的其他关键考虑因素。大多数特斯拉车主都将Supercharger快速充电站网络归功于他们各自的购买决定，这支撑了特斯拉(TSLA)多年来成功成为行业领导者。蔚来专有的电池交换技术也实现了同样的增长前景。除了在全国拥有200多个快速充电站外，蔚来还在全国安装了300多个换电站，并承诺到2025年在全球范围内再建设4000个。蔚来还通过提供“电池即服务”（“BaaS”）超越了特斯拉，这是一种按月订阅的服务，为蔚来车主根据个人预算和出行需求提供灵活的电池升级选择。其充电基础设施的可用性不断提高，加上额外的价格优惠和灵活的电池选项，使蔚来能够在长期内占领电动汽车市场的更大份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increasing Global Market Share</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增加全球市场份额</b></blockquote></p><p> The Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th&nbsp;in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on&nbsp;September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.</p><p><blockquote>这家中国电动汽车制造商也有望在几周内在挪威首次亮相。第一批运往新市场的ES8已经抵达，蔚来自8月30日起开始提供试驾服务，为9月23日海外首个蔚来之家和交付中心的盛大开业做准备。蔚来在挪威的销售和服务网络的建设将持续到2022年，将在挪威的Bergen、Stavanger、Trondheim和Kristansand开设另外四个地点。除了蔚来工厂外，这家电动汽车制造商还将在挪威各地部署其专有的换电站，履行其为蔚来车主提供无里程焦虑驾驶体验的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最新的技术发展也将支持其在欧洲的扩张计划，因为该地区仍然是全球最大的电动汽车市场之一，紧随中国之后。欧盟委员会最近收紧了排放标准和减排目标，预计将在未来几年进一步加速大众市场电动汽车在更广泛的欧洲市场的采用，这使得蔚来最近进入该地区恰逢其时。预计到2027年，欧洲的电动汽车需求将以25.4%的复合年增长率(“CAGR”)飙升，市值将超过1,430亿美元。像蔚来这样的乘用电动汽车制造商将成为最大的受益者。乘用车领域目前占欧洲电动汽车市场的80%以上，预计到本世纪末仍将是该行业增长的主要驱动力。为了进一步利用欧洲不断增长的机遇，蔚来最近聘请了一位新首席执行官来领导蔚来的欧洲业务，目前正计划进一步扩张到包括德国和阿姆斯特丹在内的其他地区。</blockquote></p><p> Following its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.</p><p><blockquote>继进军欧洲后，蔚来还计划进军美国电动汽车市场。蔚来创始人兼首席执行官李威廉最近接受采访时暗示，其美国扩张计划有可能在十年内实现。尽管美国电动汽车销量目前大幅落后于中国和欧洲，但拜登政府最近推动交通部门电气化使美国成为一个充满机遇的市场，电动汽车采用率将在本世纪后五年飙升。初步估计显示，到本世纪末，美国电动汽车销量可能以高达30%的复合年增长率增长，美国道路上的电动汽车总数将达到1800万辆，约占全球电动汽车预计销量的14%。这些增长趋势为蔚来带来了强劲的推动力，其进入美国市场的潜力恰逢美国电动汽车市场的黄金时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growing via Horizontal Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过横向扩张实现增长</b></blockquote></p><p> The coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.</p><p><blockquote>预计未来一年对蔚来来说将是关键的一年，因为它将通过新车、独立品牌以及对竞争对手品牌的战略投资进入更广阔的全球市场。在第二季度财报看涨期权期间，蔚来宣布除了此前宣布的ET7轿车外，还将在2022年推出两款新的EV车型；其中之一将成为蔚来价格最低的产品。这家电动汽车制造商还公布了一个独立品牌的计划，该品牌将提供价格更实惠的汽车，以提高大众市场的吸引力。新宣布的两项战略将补充蔚来在中国较小的“三线”城市扩大业务的近期计划，并与特斯拉最畅销的Model Y/3正面竞争。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来最近还对英国标志性跑车制造商路特斯的电动汽车部门路特斯科技进行了投资。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，蔚来和路特斯将合作开发“高端智能电动汽车”，并促进路特斯计划在未来五年内推出新的电动汽车车型。随着该行业竞争的持续加剧，它还将使蔚来能够分享利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克以轻资产模式进入资本密集型行业</b></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来的既定业务相比，菲斯克的生产时间表继续落后于同行，旗舰Ocean SUV仍处于测试阶段。该公司最近重申了将于2022年底开始生产Fisker Ocean的承诺，并于11月推出全面的营销活动。除了反复确认Ocean计划“按时、按预算”外，这家电动汽车初创公司还像往常一样对车辆的技术和规格守口如瓶，计划在洛杉矶车展上展示该车的量产版本11月的车展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pre-Launch Momentum</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发射前的势头</b></blockquote></p><p> To date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，Fisker已获得超过17,500份Ocean SUV预订。考虑到每次预订的价格为250美元，如果取消只能退还90%，迄今为止获得的预订量证明了公众对该车的浓厚兴趣，因为尚未发布任何有关其技术能力的信息。这家尚未盈利的电动汽车初创公司的目标是到今年年底获得至少25,000份Fisker Ocean预订，并在2022年再获得50,000份预订，以确保2023年售罄。该公司还通过收购法国农业信贷银行消费者金融公司、Ontocar订阅服务公司和Viggoride叫车服务公司的车队订单，转向商业领域的机会。这些成就凸显了一旦Ocean SUV在大约15个月后进入生产阶段，其有效提升的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Like NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来和其他新兴电动汽车初创企业一样，菲斯克打算采用直销策略，以最大限度地提高客户体验。目前，菲斯克计划首先在美国和欧洲某些国家销售Ocean，包括英国、德国、丹麦、挪威和瑞典。一旦推出更多车型，这家电动汽车制造商可能会进入亚洲其他市场，包括增长最快的中国市场和印度。尽管有关其全球扩张时间表的具体细节有限，但菲斯克的国际抱负将是其长期成功的关键因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Asset Lite Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>轻资产商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Similar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来类似，菲斯克不在内部生产车辆。相反，这家电动汽车初创公司实施了“轻资产”商业模式，这增强了其在成本管理方面令人难以置信的实力——Ocean计划将由去年SPAC合并的10亿美元收益全额资助，而距离投产仅15个月，菲斯克的资产负债表上的现金余额仍超过9.62亿美元。轻资产商业模式要求菲斯克与知名制造合作伙伴和供应商共同开发车辆和平台，从而帮助菲斯克绕过汽车制造的资本密集型性质。为了避免外包制造安排带来的典型成本低效率，菲斯克通过提供公司股权或确保该项目是合资投资，确保其生产合作伙伴“在游戏中拥有平等的利益”。该汽车制造商在选择战略合作伙伴的过程中也非常挑剔，只与业内最有信誉和经验的合作伙伴合作，以确保质量控制。</blockquote></p><p> The Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>Ocean SUV将由全球最大的汽车制造商之一麦格纳制造。两家公司共同开发了FM 29平台，该平台将在未来驱动Ocean SUV和其他电动车型。作为交换，麦格纳将获得菲斯克6%的股份，可通过满足“相互关联的业绩条件”（第17页）来行使。2020年10K的97）。麦格纳还在奥地利格拉茨的碳中和工厂开设了几个菲斯克专用运营区域，以促进他们到2029年的长期制造协议。这些工厂将为菲斯克分配超过100,000辆汽车的年产能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.</p><p><blockquote>除了Ocean SUV之外，Fisker还与富士康合作生产他们的第二款车型PEAR及其底层FP 28平台。独特的交易结构要求富士康在制造工艺和技术供应链相关领域提供投资，而菲斯克将领导设计流程、产品开发和上市战略。PEAR预计将成为一款新细分市场的汽车，将“彻底改变”电动汽车的驾驶体验。新车计划于2023年底投入生产，税前售价为3万美元。菲斯克和富士康目前正在敲定在美国建立一个制造基地的计划，该基地的年产能可达15万台。从长远来看，合作伙伴计划在全面增产后每年在全球生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR。</blockquote></p><p> Aside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.</p><p><blockquote>除了生产合作伙伴外，Fisker还与关键零部件供应商和售后服务提供商建立了战略合作伙伴关系。普利司通轮胎最近被选为Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴，而另一家未公开的电池制造商是Fisker Ocean的独家轮胎合作伙伴。夏法还被指定为多达四款Fisker EV车型的内部显示系统开发商和供应商。至于售后服务合作伙伴，菲斯克最近对公共股权（“PIPE”）进行了1000万美元的私人投资，支持欧洲电动汽车充电网络Allego与Spartan Acquisition Corp, III即将进行的反向合并。这项战略投资将为菲斯克欧洲客户高效使用充电基础设施铺平道路，这是吸引销售和扩大市场份额的关键因素。菲斯克还将Electrify AmericaT作为美国市场的官方充电合作伙伴。此次合作将为Fisker车主提供美国3,500多个Electrify America充电器的独家套餐费率。其他售后服务合作伙伴包括ThemeKonomen Group和Cox Automotive以及Rivus Fleet Solutions，这将促进菲斯克在欧洲的物流和维护服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial ProspectsNIO</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务前景蔚来汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于芯片供应的持续波动，蔚来最近决定将第三季度交付量指引从23,000至25,000辆调整至22,500至23,500辆，但我们预计该公司将继续按照我们之前的报道取得进展。今年已经交付了近56,000辆汽车，新订单也达到了历史最高水平，预计蔚来将在年底前完成约88,000辆的交付。根据平均车辆收入367,000元人民币（56,635美元），预计到今年年底汽车销售额将达到326亿元人民币（50亿美元），这与蔚来最近几个季度观察到的销售组合和定价策略一致。该预测还考虑了蔚来即将在挪威的首次亮相，这将补充第四季度国内销售增长预期。我们的基本预测预计，到2030年，蔚来的汽车销量将以30.4%的复合年增长率进一步扩大，达到4614亿元人民币（712亿美元）。增长假设与全球电动汽车需求增长趋势以及蔚来的历史表现和持续的市场份额扩张计划一致。</blockquote></p><p> NIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来在电池和自动驾驶技术增强方面取得的成就也将支撑其其他销售收入的增长。其他销售收入主要来自BaaS和“自动驾驶即服务”（“ADaaS”），预计到年底将从23亿元人民币（3.521亿美元）以30.0%的复合年增长率增长，到2030年将达到315亿元人民币（49亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d9287432802922a3c8c4a9e7cfab94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（蔚来_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>随着销售额和规模的增加，利润率将继续扩大，蔚来的净亏损预计将在2024年进一步收窄。预计2025年名义利润为82亿元人民币（13亿美元），复合年增长率为36.8%，到本十年末将达到393亿元人民币（61亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a9a5037c6bb2e491a0d94c890d8f57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。有关蔚来预计成本结构的详细细分，请参阅我们之前的分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48d96e680fc2537af9310d2ac9506ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"179\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fisker</b></p><p><blockquote><b>菲斯克</b></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as&nbsp;market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们的基本情况预测预计，2023年开始生产后，美国和欧洲将交付至少40,000辆Fisker Ocean SUV，这与管理层最初的销售指导和产量估计一致。Fisker Ocean的中配售价在50,000美元至55,000美元之间，预计将成为最畅销的车型，这款旗舰SUV预计将在2023年为该汽车制造商带来21亿美元的收入。根据从2023年开始每月至少5,000辆的产能提升，我们预计到2024年Fisker Ocean的销量将至少为60,000辆，预计收入总额为33亿美元。预计到2030年，海洋销售额将以22.5%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到111亿美元。这一增长假设与菲斯克长期向亚太地区扩张的意图以及市场对全球电动汽车需求上升的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> The PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.</p><p><blockquote>PEAR车型预计将于2023年底开始生产和交付，预计到2024年将额外增加18亿美元的收入。从长远来看，Fisker的目标是每年生产和销售至少250,000台PEAR，预计到本十年末PEAR收入将达到61亿美元。因此，这意味着2024年至2030年PEAR收入复合年增长率为22.5%，这与Fisker根据其投资者演示文稿提供的销售指引以及全球电动汽车市场增长趋势一致。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克还计划在2025年之前，除了Ocean和PEAR之外，再推出两款车。计划平均售价为59,000美元，目标是到2025年底销售200,000至250,000辆汽车，我们的基本情况预测预计届时总收入将达到85亿美元。预计到2030年，总收入将以25.6%的复合年增长率进一步增长，达到212亿美元。请注意，预计总收入还包括每年约100,000美元的名义商品销售额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6086733e59a4a20b8540494d0e688e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>随着Fisker的利润率在投产后不断提高，其资产精简业务模式带来的成本效率，我们的基本情况预测预计净亏损将从年底的3.8亿美元收窄至2022年的2.908亿美元。这家电动汽车初创公司预计将从2023年开始实现1.979亿美元的利润，到2025年四款预期电动汽车车型全部投产后，利润将进一步增长至7.743亿美元，到2030年将增长至19.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9412fb3be94fd83ecc56715bc26b414a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测。请参阅我们之前的分析，了解菲斯克预计成本结构的详细细分。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/967dab57068b839e32c04b2d47260942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"206\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Consistent with our&nbsp;recent&nbsp;analyses&nbsp;performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.</p><p><blockquote>与我们最近对这两只股票的分析一致，我们对蔚来和菲斯克的12个月目标价分别保持在59.74美元和20.61美元。根据9月3日最后一次交易股价，这些预测表明两只股票的上涨潜力接近48%。</blockquote></p><p> We have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>我们进行了贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，以确定蔚来和菲斯克各自的12个月价格目标。具体来说，我们在DCF分析中使用了截至2025年的预计自由现金流，以反映两家公司近期增长计划的估值预期。</blockquote></p><p> For NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.</p><p><blockquote>对于蔚来的估值分析，我们采用了11.9%的WACC来贴现预计的自由现金流。考虑到其高杠杆资产负债表以及鉴于中国监管格局的不确定性而近期价格表现的波动，估值假设与该公司当前的风险状况一致。估值分析还假设EV/EBITDA倍数为90.6倍，这反映了蔚来除了电动汽车销售之外在专有技术开发方面取得的成就，以及持续的增长计划和业务前景。相比之下，行业同行的EV/EBITDA范围为70.9倍至111.2倍。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.近期估值分析-蔚来：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89d32cdceadf5ef5899705290bf42593\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，我们应用13.4%的WACC对Fisker的预计自由现金流进行贴现，以计算该股12个月的目标价。尽管该公司基本上没有债务，有足够的流动性来完成海洋计划，但考虑到itisa收入前和生产前启动，与蔚来相比，该公司是一项风险相对较高的投资。WACC还考虑了Fisker最近宣布为PEAR计划提供6.25亿美元的新私人债务，利率为2.50%，将于2026年到期。估值分析假设EV/EBITDA倍数为13.6倍，这与仍处于预营收和测试阶段、最近完成反向SPAC合并的电动汽车初创企业的估值一致。所应用的估值倍数还反映了与蔚来和业内其他老牌电动汽车制造商相比，菲斯克在销售能力以及技术发展方面的运营规模较小。</blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、近期估值分析——菲斯克：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844570c70f1d3c319436280658c72dd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，我们预计蔚来和菲斯克的股价将分别高达160美元和39美元。规定的长期估值反映了两家公司在实现各自未来五到十年增长愿望后的估计内在价值。对于菲斯克来说，这些举措包括在2025年之前全面实现推出四款电动汽车车型，并向亚太地区扩张，以及实现正的运营现金流和利润。对于蔚来来说，预计的长期估值还体现了其技术进步所产生的额外价值，包括全球电池交换站的建设、远程固态电池的开发以及四级自动驾驶技术的实现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.</p><p><blockquote>虽然全球电动汽车采用趋势的加速凸显了这两只股票的高增长机会，但鉴于其成熟的业务和专有技术开发，蔚来是更好的长期投资。但这两只股票的近期催化剂不应被忽视。蔚来将在两周内正式开设挪威业务，菲斯克将在11月推出Ocean SUV的量产版，预计将在未来12个月内进一步提升各自的价格表现。这使得这两只股票在当前价格水平上对于那些希望利用其增长潜力的人来说都是有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454103-fisker-vs-nio-ev-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158905975","content_text":"Summary\n\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years.\nGlobal EV sales have surged by over 40% in 2020, and are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity.\nBut the growing number of EV stocks, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a better investment.\nA similar investment dilemma applies to NIO and Fisker, with one being a leading EV brand in China, and the other still in pre-revenue and pre-production phase.\nWhile our outlook remains bullish on both stocks, we believe NIO makes a higher-growth long-term investment due to the increasing value ascribed to its proprietary technology, including battery swaps and autonomous driving.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nImproving battery technology, greater charging infrastructure availability, and increasing price parity with ICE vehicles have supercharged electric vehicle (“EV”) adoption in recent years. The EV industry has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments of the 21stcentury – while global car sales suffered from an unprecedented slump during 2020 due to COVID-related lockdowns and economic uncertainty,EV sales surged by over 40% from 2019. And EV sales are poised to reach newer heights this year, making it an exciting investment opportunity that many have set their eyes on.\nBut the growing number of options, ranging from established EV makers to pre-revenue early-stage EV start-ups, have made it increasingly difficult to determine which makes a higher growth investment. A similar investment dilemma applies to NIO (NIO) and Fisker (FSR), where the former has already emerged as one of the leading EV brands in China with ongoing plans for overseas expansion, while the latter is still in testing phase for its first vehicle. In our most recent coverage of NIO and Fisker, we have assigned both companies a buy signal. Although the 12-month price targets we have set for both stocks would indicate that Fisker exhibits similar upside potential in the near-term, we believe NIO would generate a better risk-return tradeoff over the long-run due to the increasing value of its innovative technology developments. NIO also makes a safer investment considering its EVs and proprietary battery swapping technology have already been tried and tested with proven demand in both China and Europe.\nNIO’s Advantage with Innovation, Overseas Expansion, and a Differentiated Business Model\nIn the span of just a little over three years, NIO has grown into one of the largest EV brands in China with more than 130,000 vehicles sold to date. Although delivery volumes have slowed in recent months due to ongoing volatility of global chip supply, NIO has continued to achieve strong double-digit year-over-year sales growth. New orders have also been consistently reaching all-time highs on a monthly basis, underpinning significant sales growth ahead as demand continues to ramp up rapidly.\nSales Boost by Innovation\nIn addition to its diversified line-up of fully battery-powered EVs, NIO is best known for their development of battery swapping technology, in-vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving.Its innovative accomplishments achieved to date are a testament to its vision of expanding beyond the horizons of just building electric cars, but also a comprehensive ecosystem that is driven by technology.\nMost recently, NIO announced the addition of a 150 kWh solid-state battery pack to its current line-up of swappable batteries. NIO currently offers swappable 70 kWh and 100 kWh battery packs, which already enable a range capability of 300 miles and 435 miles, respectively. The newest 150 kWh solid-state battery pack, which is expected to enter commercial use in Q4 2022, will deliver range capability of more than 450 miles for the first-generation ES8 SUVs, and up to 620 miles for the newer and more efficient models. This would top current record-holder Lucid Motors’(LCID) range capability of 517 miles on a single charge. Paired with its proprietary battery swapping technology, which can switch a dead battery out for a fully charged one in under three minutes, NIO answers to two of the biggest roadblocks to global EV adoption – range anxiety and long charge times.\nAlthough the average commute is typically less than 40 miles per day, most drivers have indicated a preference for EVs with higher range capability to preserve the “peace of mind” they have gotten used to with ICE vehicles. Charge time and charging infrastructure availability have also proven to be other critical considerations in the EV purchasing decision. Most Tesla owners have credited the accessible network of Supercharger fast-charging stations for their respective purchasing decisions, underpinning Tesla’s(TSLA) success in becoming the industry leader over the years. And NIO’s proprietary battery swapping technology enables the same growth prospects. In addition to its network of over 200 fast-charging Power Charger stations across China, NIO has also installed more than 300 Power Swap stations across the country, with a commitment to build 4,000 more globally by 2025. NIO also one-ups Tesla by offering “Battery as a Service” (“BaaS”), which is a monthly subscription service that provides NIO owners with flexible options for battery upgrades based on personal budgets and travel needs. The increasing availability of its charging infrastructure, combined with the additional price-friendly and flexible battery options make NIO well-positioned to capture a larger share of the EV market in the long-run.\nIncreasing Global Market Share\nThe Chinese EV maker is also on track to making its Norway debut in a few weeks. Its first shipment of the ES8 to the new market has already arrived, and NIO has started offering test drives since August 30th in preparation for the grand opening of its first NIO House and delivery center overseas on September 23rd. The build-out of NIO’s sales and service network in Norway will continue into 2022, with four more locations to open across Bergen, Stavanger, Trondheim and Kristansand. In addition to the NIO House, the EV maker will also be deploying its proprietary swap stations across Norway, staying true to its commitment to offering NIO owners with a range-anxiety-free driving experience.\nNIO’s newest technological developments will also underpin its expansion plans across Europe, as the region continues to be one of the largest EV markets in the world, following closely behind China’s. The European Commission’s recent tightening of theiremissions standardsandemissions reduction targetsis expected to further accelerate mass-market EV adoption across the broader European markets in coming years, making NIO’s recent entry to the region a well-timed move. EV demand in Europe is expected to surge at a compounded annual growth rate (“CAGR”) of 25.4% towards amarket value of more than $143 billionthrough to 2027. And passenger EV makers like NIO are poised to be the largest beneficiaries. The passenger cars segment currently accounts for more than 80% of the European EV market, and is expected remain the leading driver of growth within the industry through to the end of the decade. In order to further its capitalization of the growing opportunities in Europe, NIO has recently hired a new CEO to lead NIO’s European operations, and is currently planning additional expansion into other regions includingGermanyandAmsterdam.\nFollowing its expansion into Europe, NIO also plans to step foot into the U.S. EV market. A recent interview by NIO’s founder and CEO, William Li, hints at the possibility of materializing its U.S. expansion plans within the ten-year horizon. Although U.S. EV sales currently lag behind China’s and Europe’s by a wide margin, the Biden administration’s recent push for electrification of the transportation sector makes the U.S. an opportunity-filled market with EV adoption rates to surge in the latter half of the decade. Preliminary estimates show that U.S. EV sales could grow at a CAGR of up to 30% towards a total of18 million EVs on American roadsby the end of the decade, representing approximately14% of projected global EV sales. These growth trends make strong tailwinds for NIO, with its potential entry into the U.S. market to coincide with the American EV market’s prime time.\nGrowing via Horizontal Expansion\nThe coming year is expected to be pivotal for NIO as it taps into the broader global market with new cars, a separate brand, and strategic investments into rival brands. During the second quarter earnings call, NIO announced the launch of two new EV models in addition to the previously announced ET7 sedan in 2022; one of which will become NIO’s lowest-priced offering. The EV maker also unveiled plans for a separate brand that will offer more affordably priced vehicles to drive higher mass-market appeal. The two newly announced strategies will be complementary to NIO’s near-term plans of expanding its presence in China’s smaller “Tier 3” cities, and competing head-on with Tesla’s best-selling Model Y/3.\nNIO has also recently made aninvestment contribution to Lotus Technology, the EV unit of iconic British sportscar-maker, Lotus. As part of the strategic partnership, both NIO and Lotus will collaborate in developing “high-end intelligent EVs” and facilitate Lotus’ planned roll-out of new EV models over the next five years. It will also enable profit sharing for NIO as competition continues to rise within the sector.\nFisker’s Entry to the Capital-Intensive Sector with an Asset Lite Model\nIn contrast to NIO’s established operations, Fisker’s production timeline continues to trail behind its peers with the flagship Ocean SUV still in testing phase. The company has recently reiterated its commitment to begin production of the Fisker Ocean in late 2022, with a full marketing campaign to roll-out in November. Aside from repeatedly confirming that the Ocean program is “on time and on budget”, the EV start-up has remained tight-lipped as usual on the vehicle’s technology and specs, with plans to reveal the production version of the vehicle at the LA Auto Show in November.\nPre-Launch Momentum\nTo date, Fisker has secured over 17,500 reservations for the Ocean SUV. Considering each reservation is priced at $250, and only 90% refundable if cancelled, the volume of reservations acquired to date is a testament of strong public interest in the vehicle, given there has not been any information released on its technological capabilities yet. The pre-revenue EV start-up is aiming to acquire at least 25,000 reservations for the Fisker Ocean by the end of the year, with another 50,000 in 2022 to ensure a sell-out in 2023. The company has also turned to opportunities within the commercial landscape by acquiring fleet orders fromCredit Agricole Consumer Finance,Ontocar subscription services, andViggoride-hailing services. The achievements underscore its ability to ramp effectively once the Ocean SUV enters production phase in about 15 months.\nLike NIO and other rising EV start-ups, Fisker intends to adopt a direct sales strategy to maximize customer experience. Currently, Fisker plans to sell the Ocean in the U.S. and certain countries across Europe, including the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, first. And once additional models roll-out, the EV maker will likely make an entry into additional markets across Asia, including thefastest-growing Chinese market and India. Although specific details on its global expansion timeline are limited, Fisker’s international aspirations will be a critical factor to its long-term success.\nAsset Lite Business Model\nSimilar to NIO, Fisker does not produce its vehicles in-house. Instead, the EV start-up implements an “asset lite” business model, which has bolstered its incredible strength in cost management – with the Ocean Program to be fully funded by the $1 billion proceeds from its SPAC merger last year, and only 15 months away from start of production, Fisker’s balance sheet still boasts a cash balance of more than $962 million. The asset lite business model helps Fisker bypass the capital-intensive nature of car-making by requiring it to co-develop its vehicles and platforms with renowned manufacturing partners and suppliers. And to avoid the typical cost inefficiencies that accompany outsourced manufacturing arrangements, Fisker ensures its production partners have “equal skin in the game” by either offering equity stake in the company or ensuring the project is a joint-venture investment. The carmaker has also been highly selective in the process of choosing its strategic partners, and only works with the most reputable and experienced in the industry to ensure quality control.\nThe Ocean SUV will be manufactured by Magna, one of the largest auto manufacturers in the world. Together, the two companies have co-developed the FM 29 platform that will drive the Ocean SUV and additional EV models in the future. In exchange, Magna is offered a 6% stake in Fisker, exercisable through achievement of “interrelated performance conditions” (pg. 97 of the2020 10K). Magna has also opened several Fisker-dedicated operational areas at the carbon-neutral facility in Graz, Austria to facilitate theirlong-term manufacturing agreementthrough to 2029. The facilities will allocate annual production capacity of well over 100,000 vehicles at full ramp up to Fisker.\nIn addition to the Ocean SUV, Fisker is also working with Foxconn on the production of their second model,PEAR, and its underlying FP 28 platform. The unique deal structure requires Foxconn to provide investments in areas related to the manufacturing process and the technology supply chain, while Fisker will lead on the design process, product development and go-to-market strategies. The PEAR is expected to be a new-segment vehicle that will “revolutionize” the electric vehicle driving experience. The new vehicle is scheduled to enter production in late 2023, with a price tag of $30,000 before tax incentives. Fisker and Foxconn are currently finalizing plans on amanufacturing site in the U.S.that could handle a production capacity of up to 150,000 units annually. And in the long-run, the partners plan to manufacture and sell at least 250,000 units of the PEAR per year globally upon full production ramp up.\nAside from its production partners, Fisker has also forged strategic partnerships with critical component suppliers and after-sales service providers.Bridgestone Tireshas recently been selected as the exclusive tire partner for the Fisker Ocean, while another undisclosed battery cell manufacturer, who is one of the five largest in the world, will supply the battery packs.Sharphas also been engaged as the designated developer and supplier of interior display systems for up to four Fisker EV models. As for after-sales service partners, Fisker has recently made a $10 million private investment in public equity (“PIPE”) supporting the upcoming reverse merger ofAllego, a European EV charging network, with Spartan Acquisition Corp, III. The strategic investment will pave the way for efficient access to charging infrastructure for Fisker customers in Europe, a critical element in attracting sales and growing its market share. Fisker has also madeElectrify Americaits official charging partner for the U.S. market. The partnership will offer Fisker vehicle owners with exclusive package rates across more than 3,500 Electrify America chargers in the U.S. Other after-sales service partners include theMekonomen GroupandCox Automotive and Rivus Fleet Solutions, which will facilitate Fisker’s logistics and maintenance services in Europe.\nFinancial ProspectsNIO\nDespite NIO’s recent decision to adjust its third-quarter delivery guidance from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles down to 22,500 to 23,500 vehicles due to ongoing volatility of chip supply, we are expecting the company to keep progressing in line with ourearlier coverage. With close to 56,000 vehicles already delivered this year and new orders reaching an all-time high, NIO is expected to complete approximately 88,000 deliveries by the end of the year. This is expected to yield vehicle sales of RMB 32.6 billion ($5.0 billion) by the end of the year based on average vehicle revenue of RMB 367,000 ($56,635), which is consistent with NIO’s sales mix and pricing strategy observed in recent quarters. The projection also takes into consideration NIO’s upcoming debut in Norway, which will top-up on domestic sales growth expectations in the fourth quarter. Our base-case forecast projects NIO’s vehicle sales to further expand at a CAGR of 30.4% towards RMB 461.4 billion ($71.2 billion) by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with global EV demand growth trends, as well as NIO’s historical performance and ongoing market share expansion initiatives.\nNIO’s achievements in battery and autonomous driving technology enhancement will also underpin growth in its other sales revenues. Other sales revenues, which are primarily generated from BaaS and “Autonomous Driving as a Service” (“ADaaS”), are expected to grow in line with vehicle sales at a CAGR of 30.0% from RMB 2.3 billion ($352.1 million) by the end of the year to RMB 31.5 billion ($4.9 billion) by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (NIO_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf).\nNIO’s net losses are expected to further narrow towards 2024 as margins continue to expand with sales ramp up and scale. Nominal profits of RMB 8.2 billion ($1.3 billion) are forecasted for 2025, with growth at a CAGR of 36.8% towards RMB 39.3 billion ($6.1 billion) by the end of the decade.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of NIO’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nFisker\nOn the other hand, our base-case forecast projects delivery of at least 40,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs across the U.S. and Europe in 2023 following the start of production, which is consistent with management’s original sales guidance and production volume estimates. With the Fisker Ocean’s middle-trim priced between $50,000 to $55,000 expected to be the best-seller, the flagship SUV is forecasted to generate $2.1 billion of revenues for the carmaker in 2023. And based on ramped-up production capacity of at least 5,000 units per month starting in 2023, we are projecting sales of at least 60,000 units of the Fisker Ocean by 2024, totaling $3.3 billion in projected revenues. Ocean sales are forecasted to grow further at a CAGR of 22.5% towards $11.1 billion by 2030. The growth assumption is consistent with Fisker’s intentions to expand into Asia-Pacific regions in the long-run, as well as market expectations on the rise of global EV demand.\nThe PEAR model, which is expected to commence production and deliveries in late 2023, is forecasted to add an additional $1.8 billion to revenues in 2024. With aspirations to produce and sellat least 250,000 unitsof the PEAR annually in the long-run, Fisker is expected to generate PEAR revenues of $6.1 billion by the end of the decade. This accordingly translates to PEAR revenue growth at a CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2030, which is consistent with Fisker’s sales guidance per itsInvestor Presentationand global EV market growth trends.\nFisker also plans to launch two more vehicles in addition to the Ocean and PEAR before 2025. With a planned average sales price of $59,000 and a goal of selling 200,000 to 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2025, our base case forecast projects total revenues of $8.5 billion by then. Total revenues are expected to further expand at a CAGR of 25.6% towards $21.2 billion by 2030. Note that projected total revenues also include nominal merchandise sales of approximately $100,000 per year.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast.\nWith Fisker’s margins to continuously improve after start of productions with cost-efficiencies enabled by its asset lite business model, our base-case forecast projects narrowing net losses from $380.0 million by the end of the year to $290.8 million by 2022. The EV start-up is expected to start realizing profits of $197.9 million starting in 2023, with further growth towards $774.3 million by 2025 when all four anticipated EV models enter production, and towards $1.95 billion by 2030.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecasts. Please refer to our previous analysis for a detailed breakdown of Fisker’s projected cost structure.\ni. Base Case Financial Forecast:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConsistent with our recent analyses performed on both stocks, our 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker remain at $59.74 and $20.61, respectively. These projections represent upside potential of close to 48% for both stocks based on their last traded share price on September 3rd.\nWe have performed a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis to determine the respective 12-month price targets for NIO and Fisker. Specifically, we have used projected free cash flows up to 2025 in the DCF analysis to reflect the valuation expectations on both companies’ near-term growth initiatives.\nFor NIO’s valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 11.9% to discount the projected free cash flows. The valuation assumption is consistent with the company’s current risk profile, taking into consideration its highly leveraged balance sheet and recent volatility in its price performance given uncertainties over the Chinese regulatory landscape. The valuation analysis also assumes a 90.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which reflects NIO’s achievements in proprietary technology development in addition to EV sales, as well as ongoing growth initiatives and business outlook. This compares to the EV/EBITDA range of 70.9x to 111.2x observed across its industry peers.\ni. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – NIO:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOn the other hand, we have applied a WACC of 13.4% to discount the projected free cash flows of Fisker to compute the stock’s 12-month price target. Although the company has largely remained debt-free with sufficient liquidity to complete the Ocean program, the company is a relatively riskier investment compared to NIO considering itisa pre-revenue and pre-production start-up. The WACC also considers Fisker’s recent announcement to fund the PEAR program with a new private debt offering of $625 million at 2.50% due in 2026. The valuation analysis assumes a 13.6x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is consistent with those of EV start-ups that are still in pre-revenue and testing phase, and have recently completed a reverse SPAC merger. The valuation multiple applied also reflects Fisker’s smaller scale of operations in terms of sales capacity, as well as technological developments in comparison to NIO and other established EV makers in the industry.\nii. Near-Term Valuation Analysis – Fisker:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nOver the next five years, we foresee NIO and Fisker’s share price to reach as high as$160and$39, respectively. The long-term valuations prescribed reflect both companies’ estimated intrinsic values upon realization of their respective growth aspirations set out for the next five to ten years. For Fisker, these initiatives include full materialization of launching four EV models before 2025 with expansion into Asia-Pacific regions, as well as achieving positive operating cash flow and profits. And for NIO, the projected long-term valuation also captures the additional value generated from its technological advancements, including the global build-out of battery swap stations, development of long-range solid-state batteries, and materialization oflevel four autonomous driving technology.\nConclusion\nWhile accelerated global EV adoption trends underscore high-growth opportunities for both stocks, NIO makes a better long-term investment given its established operations and proprietary technological developments. But near-term catalysts for both stocks should not be overlooked. NIO’s official opening of its Norway operations in two weeks and Fisker’s reveal of the Ocean SUV’s production version in November are expected to underpin additional upsides for their respective price performances in the next twelve months. This makes both stocks attractive options at current price levels for those looking to capitalize on their growth potentials.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889527983,"gmtCreate":1631160832242,"gmtModify":1631883969068,"author":{"id":"3581658741892979","authorId":"3581658741892979","name":"Abu888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39dfd9ec19b4b4e5c99cbc270b33e932","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581658741892979","idStr":"3581658741892979"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comments thsnks","listText":"Like my comments thsnks","text":"Like my comments thsnks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889527983","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}